Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #390 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 4 ET - The Bears are 6-0 on the season and, for the first time under head coach Rhule, are ranked in the top 25. That said, the odds makers must have made some kind of mistake here, right? After all, how can the unranked Cowboys be favored over a Baylor team that has won 8 straight games dating back to last season? Exactly! Don't be fooled. It is no mistake. The odds makers know what they are doing. The Bears are off a tough game where they had to rally to force OT and ended up winning in double-OT over Texas Tech. Keep in mind, this was a game in which Baylor was favored by double digits so, in other words, quite unimpressive. Speaking of unimpressive, look at the Bears schedule this season! That said, they now face their toughest test of the season and I like an Oklahoma State team playing at home and that comes in rested off a bye week last week! The situation is set up perfect for the Cowboys to roll at home and their potent offense won't take their foot off the gas either. That's because last year the Bears took it to Oklahoma State and won the game 35-31. Now it is time for payback! The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 home games against Baylor. Also, note that the host has won 8 of the last 9 meetings between these teams SU. While the Bears are off a dramatic win last week, the Cowboys suffered a loss by 10 to the Red Raiders two weeks ago at Texas Tech. That was prior to the OSU bye. That is noteworthy here as Oklahoma State is 7-0 ATS the last 7 times in their first game after playing Texas Tech. Also, when playing with extra rest following a SU loss by a double digit margin, the Cowboys are 9-1 ATS! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #343 Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ Noon ET - Ideal set up for grabbing a huge underdog in what should actually be a very competitive game. Of course in comparing Iowa and Purdue, the Hawkeyes are the much better team and plus are at home for this one. However, the Boilermakers enter this game off a confidence-boosting 40-14 win over Maryland and they catch Iowa off very physical and emotionally draining losses at Michigan and versus Penn State the past two weeks. Of course the Hawkeyes want to get back into the win column and I certainly expect them to do that here. However, how much will they have left in the tank in terms of truly putting on a beatdown of a Big Ten rival that will certainly have no shortage of emotion for this game. This spread is around 18 and, keep in mind, the Hawkeyes have been held to scoring 18 points or less in 3 of their past 4 games. Also, Purdue is playing their 7th game of the season and they've only had 2 ugly losses this season. The Boilermakers other 2 losses were tight and, with last week's win over the Terrapins, they now have 2 SU wins this season as well. The visitor is actually 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams and the Boilermakers do have a history of playing well here. They made some changes to their O-line last week and their back-up QB had a huge game as a result. Iowa, of course, has a very tough defense, but this road dog has some confidence now and the Hawkeyes defensive energy is a little worn down after facing the Wolverines and Nittany Lions the past two weeks. 8* PURDUE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Friday 10* Top Play Florida Atlantic Owls (-) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 6:30 ET - The Owls got blasted at Marshall last season and are looking forward to revenge here at home. Florida Atlantic is lead by head coach Lane Kiffin and he is on a 13-6 ATS run in games against Conference USA opponents. The Thundering Herd have been trending the other direction as they have lost the money in 13 of their past 18 games! Marshall is off a non-covering win against a bad Old Dominion team and the Thundering Herd entered that game having scored an average of just 16.8 points per game in their 4 prior games. That has a lot to with QB Green not exactly "lighting it up" for the Thundering Herd. On the other hand, Owls QB Robison certainly has been strong this season for FAU. With a very manageable number at home I have no hesitation in laying the short number here. In Kiffin's first year on the job the Owls went 9-0 in conference action in 2017. However, in 2018 they went only 3-5 SU. Of those 5 SU losses, 3 of the opponents were to be faced by FAU again this season. Those 3 were Charlotte, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. So far the Owls are 2-0 on the revenge tour with wins over the 49ers and Blue Raiders. Now it is time to make it a 3-0 revenge tour sweep by knocking off the Thundering Herd and I look for the Owls to do just that! 10* FLORIDA ATLANTIC

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #305 Thursday 8* UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (-) @ Arkansas State @ 7:30 ET - UL Lafayette is off a low-scoring loss but they faced a tough Appalachian State team. Now the Ragin Cajuns face the struggling defense of Arkansas State and I expect this one will turn into a road road. UL Lafayette entered their game against the Mountaineers having averaged nearly 550 yards and 45 points per game! Their offense will surely bounce back against a Red Wolves defense that has been hurt (literally) by injuries this season. Arkansas State has allowed averages of 45 points per game and over 600 yards a game the past month. The Ragin Cajuns are on a 7-1 ATS run (not including bowl game) in their last 8 games played away from home! The road warriors get the job done again Thursday as they bounce back off their first ATS loss of the season. Arkansas State is off a bye week which was preceded by them getting blasted 52-38 at Georgia State. The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS when they are a dog of 6.5 points or less and off a game in which they allowed 36 points or more. The Ragin Cajuns are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams. 8* UL LAFAYETTE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - I am aware of the injury issues for the Huskers and that includes QB Adrian Martinez and WR JD Speilman. My sources are indicating both will play at Minnesota tonight. If that would end up not happening, the fact is that I still expected Nebraska to get the cover here and they absolutely have a shot at the outright upset too. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 on the season but they are so vastly over-rated at this point. Minnesota has seen 4 of their 5 wins come by 7 points or less and, keep in mind, their schedule has been very weak. The Gophers have beaten South Dakota State (FCS School), Fresno State (2 OT), and Georgia Southern (Sun Belt school). Their two big ten wins came against Purdue (QB Sindelar HURT) and Illinois (one of worst Big Ten programs). Now Minnesota faces a Nebraska team that is 4-2 on the season and that blew a huge lead in an OT loss at Colorado and whose only other loss was against a Ohio State team that is one of the best teams in the nation this year on BOTH sides of the ball. That said, the Huskers are flying under the radar a bit heading into this contest. As for Minny, their 5-0 record has them a little over-hyped right now and I feel an upset is going to be the end result in this one Saturday night. If the Huskers fall short of that they'll still get the cover in my opinion. The Cornhuskers hammered Minnesota by 25 points last year and have won and covered in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Nebraska has covered 22 of their last 32 road games. If Martinez can't go or gives it a go and then must exit, note that Noah Vedral has a dozen games of experience and the back-up QB did lead the game winning drive last week. The Corhuskers lone loss (ATS and SU) in their last 4 meetings with the Golden Gophers was in their last visit to Minnesota. The Huskers got hammered in that one in 2017 and now it is payback time. 10* NEBRASKA

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #147 Saturday 8* Washington State Cougars (+) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 3:30 ET - I still feel Arizona State is over-rated. Yes they are off a win at Cal which preceded their bye week. However, the Golden Bears are looking less impressive as each week goes by. As for the Sun Devils, the last time they were at home they did lose to Colorado. They face a tougher challenge now in this home game and ASU's early season hype had a lot to do with a D that didn't allow many points in their first 3 games. However, Arizona State faced Kent State, Sacramento State and Michigan State. Of course the only tough opponent in that grouping was the Spartans and they put up over 400 yards of offense in the game but poor play-calling and turnovers led to Michigan State scoring just 7 points in the game. Now Arizona State faces a Washington State team that is also off a bye week but in a different frame of mind than the Sun Devils right now. That's because the Cougars got blasted at Utah prior to their bye. They can't wait to get on the field as that game was preceded by the insane 67-63 loss to UCLA that was at home for Washington State. The Cougars are in big-time "payback mode" here and ready to resume their early season winning. There is a reason this line was set the way it was (pick'em range) even though ASU is at home and the Cougars are off B2B losses. In other words, don't be fooled as the road team is the play in this one! 8* WASHINGTON STATE

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #178 Saturday 8* Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 3:30 ET - The Spartans offense and play-calling is horrible. That said, even though they have a respectable defense, they aren't going to be able to hang around in this game. Keep in mind, Michigan State is just 2-4 ATS on the season for a reason. They underachieve. They managed only 7 points in a loss to Arizona State and that was at home. In their most recent road game they did face a strong Ohio State team so is understandable they only scored 10 points there. But that game also was just last week. This is a horrible spot for the Spartans from a scheduling standpoint. They had to go toe to toe on the road last week with one of the best teams in the nation last week and then they follow it up by making a road trip the very next week to Wisconsin. It doesn't get much worse than that for a team that struggles to consistently score against strong teams. Note that the Spartans now face a rested Badgers team that has allowed an average of just 5.8 points per game on the season! I say "rested" because Wisconsin was able to rest guys last week thanks to a 48-0 plastering of Kent State! Also, the Badgers have been at home ever since their opening season road trip to South Florida in August! This scheduling situation is fantastic for Wisconsin and horrible for Michigan State and now we take advantage! Spartans on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. The Badgers have been at home in Madison the entire month of September and first two weeks of October. 8* WISCONSIN

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #172 Saturday 8* Houston Cougars (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - Once the Cougars had their #1 QB and WR redshirt for this season after 4 games, they were left for dead by most pundits. However, this Houston team has depth at both those positions and their first game after the announcements saw the Cougars knock off North Texas by 3 touchdowns. Since then they have had a bye week and now they host Cincinnati before a trip to face a bad Connecticut team next week. In other words, Houston is certainly focused and rested for this opportunity this week as a host against a ranked Bearcats team. The Cougars are catching Cincy at a good time to upset them as the Cats are off an upset win over Central Florida last week. Keep in mind that was the Bearcats first upset win over a ranked foe in 10 years! That emotional game could leave Cincy a little flat here but there is no doubt the Cougars are up for this game. Houston is off a bye week and playing their only home game in a 5-week stretch! Head coach Fickell for Cincy has failed to cover 9 of the last 12 times he was a favorite by 9.5 points or less. The Cougars have failed to cover only 4 times the last 20 regular season games in which they were an underdog. This one has upset written all over it and, if the Cougars do fall short, I expect it to be by just a field goal. 8* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #125 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) vs Texas Longhorns @ Noon ET - Many will look at this game and say it is too many points to lay. After all, the last five regular season meetings have been decided by a TD or less. In typical contrarian fashion I am laying the points. The Longhorns have issues defending the pass and this weakness is made even more concerning by the fact that Texas has injuries in its defensive backfield as well. The Sooners have allowed an average of just 16 points per game their past 4 games. The Longhorns have allowed 30 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Sooners hammered the Horns in last year's Big 12 Championship Game and I am looking for more of the same here. These teams are close in the rankings and this is a neutral site game. That said, the odds makers are well aware of that and also very aware, of course, that the the recent history between these teams would suggest a tight game. Like I said, they knew all that and yet still opened this line up at double digits. They know what they're doing and so do we! Lay it! 8* OKLAHOMA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #102 Wednesday 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (pick) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8 ET - This line is right around a "pick'em" even though the Mountaineers are undefeated this season and have also won each of their last 6 meetings with the Ragin' Cajuns. Long-time followers know how I feel about spots like this. I am going contrarian here. This line will be so attractive to those wanting to back Appalachian State for their SU winning streaks (this season and in this series) to continue. As usual I am going against the grain and backing the other side here. However, it certainly is not without plenty of logic. For one thing UL-Lafayette is not lacking for motivation as they lost in the regular season and in the Sun Belt playoff game versus the Mountaineers last season. Also, though both offenses are rolling early this season, the difference in this match-up is the way the defenses have been playing. While Appalachian State is allowing 420 yards per game, the Ragin' Cajuns have shown improvement on defense this season and are allowing only 345 yards per game. When entering a revenge game on a winning streak of 2 or more games SU (in this case 4 straight), Louisiana is 6-0 ATS! UL-Lafayette is also 9-1 ATS versus a conference opponents with a winning percentage of .667 or better. The Ragin' Cajuns are also 6-0 ATS in their game preceding facing Arkansas State. The Mountaineers are 1-6 ATS when when facing an opponent with revenge that is coming off a SU win by a double digit margin. Plenty of support for a play on the home team here and keep in mind Appalachian State had a new coach this year as Scott Satterfield is now the head man at Louisville. The Ragin' Cajuns finally get over the hump against the Mountaineers. This is the year the streak snaps! 10* UL-LAFAYETTE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #359 Saturday 10* Rice Owls (+) @ UAB Blazers @ 7 ET - Rice is in their second season under head coach Mike Bloomgreen and they have turned into the type of scrappy underdog that no one wants to face. It is a slow process but he has made great strides this season thanks to it being his 2nd year with the program and the fact that the Owls returned players with a lot of playing experience from last season. Conversely, even though UAB is an 11-win team from last season, they lost as much (if not the most) playing experience from last season's team and this is out of 130 FBS teams in the nation. Of course this is why the Blazers (11 wins last season) are not an even heavier favorite against a Rice team that entered this season having only won a total of 3 games the past two seasons. I love looking for spots like this because the marketplace is simply behind the power curve in a situation like this and the Owls make for a dangerous dog in this spot. Rice does have a bye week on deck and the Blazers could be guilty of looking right past them and underestimating them. That is because UAB  blasted the Owls 42-0 last year and that game was at Rice. Remember what I said about the coach and about experience above? The fact is that Bloomgreen and his players remember all too well the embarrassment of that ugly home shutout in his first season as head coach last year. It is time for payback at UAB this year. Now I don't necessarily expect Rice to win this game outright but I do expect there is a chance of that as I see this game being decided by the margin of a single score as it will be tight all the way. 3 of the Owls 5 losses this season have been decided by 8 or less points. That means we've got great value here with the Owls available as a double digit dog. By the way, Rice has battled hard with Army, Baylor, and Louisiana Tech this season. Even their game against Wake Forest was much more competitive than the final score indicated. The only game in which the Owls truly got blown out was against Texas and the Blazers most certainly are not the Longhorns! 10* RICE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #356 Saturday 8* Michigan Wolverines (-) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ Noon ET - The Hawkeyes are currently ranked higher than the Wolverines and yet the odds makers opened this game up closer to a 6 than a 3. However, many are anxious to back Iowa here because everyone remembers how Michigan got bullied at Wisconsin a few weeks ago. First off, the Wolverines were done in by turnovers in that game. Secondly, the game was at Madison. Thirdly, Iowa is not Wisconsin! In fact, one could easily question whether or not the Hawkeyes deserve the current lofty rating they have. Iowa has played a rather soft schedule and, in the only tough game, the Hawkeyes were very fortunate to defeat rival Iowa State. The Cyclones outgained Iowa by a significant margin in that game. Remember a few weeks ago there was an early line on this game and it was in the range of 2 TDs. The odds makers then opened this up closer to 1 TD this week because they knew how the markets would react after recent game results. Sure enough the market pushed it even closer down to a FG. That means we're only laying close to a FG that, only a few weeks ago, was considered 2 TDs better when hosting this opponent. I'll grab this every single time as Michigan has also heard plenty about being manhandled by the Badgers and they look to atone for that performance here. The Hawkeyes are leaving the state of Iowa for the first time this season and they aren't known for traveling overly well. As a road dog, the Hawkeyes are 3-6 ATS the past 3 seasons. The Wolverines are 14-1 SU the last 15 times they have been a home favorite and I have no hesitation in laying the small number in this one. 8* MICHIGAN

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #308 Friday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 8 ET - Last year both these teams were ranked and they matched up in a big game with ESPN Gameday cameras rolling late in the season and the Bearcats proceeded to get embarrassed in an ugly loss. Statistically the game was not so bad for Cincinnati but, on the scoreboard, they did lose by 25 points for a very ugly loss and now it is payback time. What most people are remembering about the Bearcats right now is how they got manhandled by Ohio State earlier this season. However, the Buckeyes have been demolishing anyone and everyone that has had the misfortune of having them on their schedule this season. The point is that UC's very ugly loss to Ohio State is actually helping to give us some value in this spot because this is still a Bearcats team that has gone 3-0 in its other games and allowed an average of only 13.7 points per game to teams not named the Buckeyes! As for UCF, they are 4-1 on the season but did lose their only true "test" of the season thus far and that was a road game at Pittsburgh. In my mind losing to the Panthers as a double digit favorite is even worse than the Bearcats getting blasted by one of the best teams in the nation. The Knights do have a bye on deck while the Cats do have Houston on deck. However, UC is actually a perfect 6-0 ATS the game before the Cougars the last 6 times. Payback time here. 10* CINCINNATI

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #306 Thursday 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates (+) vs Temple Owls @ 8 ET - I am aware of plenty of technical data that supports the road favorite Owls in this one. However, from situational standpoint, the Pirates are the play here. I know East Carolina has been a bad team for a number of consecutive seasons now but there have signs of life in East Carolina again thanks to a new head coach and wins in 3 of their last 4 games. I know the Pirates have not played a tough schedule but playing at NC State was certainly tougher than any game Temple has played this season. So, the point is, the Owls haven't exactly played a tough schedule either. Their only road game also saw them installed as a double digit favorite and Temple lost the game outright by double digits. Also, the Owls have a big game coming up hosting Memphis. It would be easy for Temple to look right past the Pirates and be looking ahead to the Tigers. Conversely, there is no doubt that East Carolina is fully focused on this game. It is a home game on a weeknight with the ESPN cameras rolling and the Pirates seek revenge for an embarrassing loss at Temple last season. I do expect the Owls to find a way to win this game but I expect the margin to be just a single score. That said, I am grabbing the big value with the double digit home dog in this one that is showing improvement this season. With each win, their confidence is growing right along with their belief in the system the new coach has put into place. They ride the momentum again here. 10* EAST CAROLINA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #166 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats are ranked and the Cowboys are unranked and yet Oklahoma State opened up as a sizable favorite here. Must be a mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about odds maker "mistakes" and I love fading this false perception when it arises. In this case, I will fade Kansas State. I am well aware of the fact that the Wildcats have a great long-term reputation in the underdog role but I don't see them as being able to score enough here to keep with the Cowboys in Stillwater. Note that Oklahoma State ranks in the top twenty in the nation for pace on offense as well as offensive efficiency. Especially with them being at home for this one I just don't see Kansas State keeping up on the scoreboard. The home team has gotten the SU win in 13 of the last 16 match-ups between these teams and, with this line at a -4, any OSU win is likely to be an ATS win as well! The Cowboys certainly want to make the most of this one as it is their only home game in a span of 5 weeks and, trust me, they are well aware of the fact. Also, Oklahoma State can't wait to get back on the field and erase the taste of a bitter defeat at the hands of the Longhorns in Texas last week. The Cowboys are catching Kansas State off an upset win in their most recent game (but Kansas State was not impressive statistically at Mississippi State). The Wildcats then had a bye week after beating the Bulldogs but now they run into a buzzsaw with the Cowboys angry off a loss plus playing this game with double revenge! Yes, the Cats actually won in 2017 at Stillwater too. Payback time here. The Wildcats are 1-3 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog. The Cowboys are 9-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also 4-0 ATS when off a road loss. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE

National TV Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #173 Saturday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 3:30 ET - Many are looking for Notre Dame to bounce back after the loss at Georgia last week. However, that was a physical battle against one of the best teams in the country. It is not easy to turn around and face a quality opponent immediately after a game like that. Virginia is a ranked opponent and certainly a very dangerous double digit dog in a spot like this. Yes I know the Cavaliers are off a very sub-par performance against Old Dominion last week as they even trailed 17-0 at one point but clearly Virginia overlooked the Monarchs as they were looking ahead to this big game. What I particularly like about the Cavs here is they have piled up 18 sacks this season and are allowing just 75 rushing yards per game and they have a secondary led by star Bryce Hall. The Cavaliers will bring their "A game" in this one and that means the Fighting Irish are in for a dogfight in this match-up! Cavs head coach Mendenhall has never beaten Notre Dame (0-3 SU) in his career and he is a solid coach that will have a good game plan here to change that. Even if they fall short of the upset I expect this game to be decided by just a single score. Look for the Cavaliers to be in it all the way. Though the Irish rolled at home earlier in their only game as a host this season that came against a bad New Mexico team. Also, even with that win and cover over the Lobos, Notre Dame is just 2-5 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home favorite of 7.5 points or more. The Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS their last dozen games against teams with a winning record. 8* VIRGINIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #116 Saturday 8* Boston College Eagles (+) vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 3:30 ET - What sticks out in the minds of many is that Boston College lost to Kansas this month. But the Eagles did bounce back from that defeat with a win over Rutgers and, as for the loss to the Jayhawks, the fact is Kansas is a little better this season with Les Miles now at the helm. Boston College enters this home game 3-1 on the young season and one of the victories was over Virginia Tech. That said, they are getting very little respect here from the markets considering they are at home and Chestnut Hill can be a tough team on visitors. I know Wake Forest has had some success here but the Demon Deacons enter this game over-rated because of their 4-0 SU start to the season. This is the 3rd time under head coach Clawson that WF has reached a 4-0 record but the 5th game each time previously has been the one that trips them up and I look for that to be the case again here. This is the first time Wake Forest has been a road favorite in an ACC game in 8 years and keep in, the Demon Deacons are on an 0-3 ATS run as an away favorite. You have to like the ATS runs for the Eagles here as they have excelled in ACC play (15-3) and as a dog (10-2) and particularly as a home dog (6-1). Wake's defense has struggled at times early this season (against Utah State and they gave up 21 points to a Rice team that annually struggles). That was their only road game thus far and now Wake Forest takes on a Boston College team playing its first home game since the embarrassing home loss to Kansas. You know the Eagles want to make up for that in this ACC match-up and I expect them to do just that! 8* BOSTON COLLEGE

Friday ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #107 Friday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Maryland Terrapins @ 8 ET - The Terrapins are improved this season but just how much better are they really? Maryland has played Howard, Syracuse and Temple. Howard is an FCS school. Syracuse lost their star QB among many other personnel losses coming into this season and they are just 2-2 with wins over Liberty and a MAC school. As for Temple, their football program continues to lack in continuity as they constantly change coaches. Anyway, the point is that just as many are questioning the Nittany Lions because of a rather soft early season schedule the same could be said of Maryland and here is what we do know. The Terrapins entered this year having had 4 straight losing seasons. Maryland has a combined record of 18-31 the past 4 seasons. Penn State is expected to regress some this season as they lost key players but this is still a team that entered this season having gone 31-9 the past 3 seasons. Yes they struggled with a scrappy Pitt team two weeks ago but that is the same Pittsburgh team that upset a ranked Central Florida team this past weekend. The Panthers can play. Now with the added edge of a bye week to prepare for this game (Terps had a bye too...I am aware of that) the Nittany Lions are likely to play their most complete game of the season. In comparing these teams PSU is the more talented team and to get them at less than a TD on the road here is a bargain. The reason for the low line is because the Terrapins have earned some style points with the market place because of big wins early this season. But now Maryland faces a Big Ten foe in their Big Ten opener and this is a foe that has beaten them by a combined 142-20 in the 3 meetings the past 3 seasons. This game will absolutely be much more competitive but I still expect the Nittany Lions to win this game by at least two touchdowns. The Terrapins are improving but they have a ways to go! Maryland is off a loss to Temple that preceded their bye week. The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS when facing a team with winning percentage of .749 or less that is off a SU loss as a favorite. Keep in mind Maryland was favored by a touchdown in that Temple game and they lost outright. That Terrapins defeat was against the same Owls team that then preceded to get blasted by Buffalo in their next game. Of course that is the same Buffalo team that Penn State, after a lackluster first half, ended up blowing out 45 to 13 early this season. See where I am going with all these comparisons? Road rout time! 10* PENN STATE

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (-) vs Navy Midshipmen @ 8 ET - Navy won only 3 games last season and then returned only 4 starters on each side of the ball entering this season. Complicating matters in terms of this game, the Midshipmen have only played 2 games so far and both were against much weaker competition than what they are facing here. Navy has faced East Carolina and Holy Cross in their only two games so far this season. Now, after a bye week, the Midshipmen run into a "buzzsaw" called Memphis. The Tigers averaged 44 points per game the past two games. As for the defense, they returned 8 starters on that side of the ball this season. This could be their best team yet in Mike Norvell's 4 years with the program and remember they won 10 games back in 2017. Remember last year they were ahead 21-9 in the 4th quarter against Navy and then lost 22-21. This is a revenge game for them and also their AAC opener. Like Navy, Memphis is off a bye here. The Tigers are on an 8-1 ATS run in weekday action versus a conference opponent. Memphis is also 7-0 ATS when playing with rest. Navy has Air Force on deck and that is always a big game for them as they battle for the Commander in Chief Trophy. That said, it comes as no surprise that the Midshipmen are 2-5 ATS the past 7 times in their game that is played the week before facing the Falcons. Navy has lost 13 straight road games and I know this is a lot of points but the Tigers are strong enough on both sides of the ball to dominate this game and the revenge factor insures they will keep the pedal to the metal in this one. 10* MEMPHIS

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #351 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10 ET - Tough spot for ASU. I know on one hand they do have revenge against the Buffaloes since they lost to them last season. However, on the other hand, the Sun Devils are off an emotional come from behind win at Michigan State last week and they won the game in dramatic fashion. Give Arizona State credit for "finding a way" last week but also note that the Spartans play-calling on offense is horrific for a top tier Big Ten program that should have much better performance in that regard. Even with that, Michigan State still outgained ASU by nearly 200 yards. With Arizona State off an upset win and the Buffaloes off an upset loss at home, this one sets up well. Keep in mind, Colorado had beaten Nebraska the week before and that followed demolishing Colorado State in their season opener. The Buffaloes also have a bye week on deck and have a very dangerous offense that is going to test an ASU defense that is highly over-rated right now. Yes the Sun Devils have some great numbers on the season but I already mentioned Michigan State's horrible play-calling above and note that Arizona State's first two games were against Kent State and Sacramento State! The Sun Devils defense is going to be stretched out in this game like it hasn't been stretched yet this season and I expect the Buffaloes to give them trouble all game long. Look for Arizona State to drop to 6-12 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. 10* COLORADO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #324 Saturday 8* Illinois Illini (+) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 8 ET - I know the Illini are not a very good football team but this is the perfect "flat spot" for fading Huskers and Nebraska has a penchant for underachieving in a spot like this. Note that the Cornhuskers are off a dominating home win over Northern Illinois. However, in their only challenging game this season they blew a big lead at Colorado and lost outright. Now, of course I am not saying that the Illni are on par with the Buffaloes (not at all) but I am saying I like having Illinois getting nearly two touchdowns with Nebraska coming off a big home win and with a huge home game versus Ohio State on deck! While the Cornhuskers were happy with their performance last week versus Northern Illinois, the Illini are coming off a very disappointing home loss to Eastern Michigan. Simply put, Illinois is in "response mode" here and they have averaged scoring 35 points per game this season. The Illini had allowed only 13 points per game in their first two games before their disappointing 34-31 loss to the Eagles. Look for the home dog to respond big here and the Cornhuskers get caught still celebrating last week's win over the Huskies plus looking forward to facing the Buckeyes next week. As a result, Nebraska is in an dogfight here and I expect the Illini to fall short by just a single score in this one. 8* ILLINOIS

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #320 Saturday 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) vs Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Pittsburgh is the kind of team that is very physical and likes to play "smash mouth" football and this is particularly true when you face them in their house. Yes, the Panthers are off a big game at Penn State last week but the positive they have going for them early this season is that Pitt has never left the state of PA. As for UCF, they are far away from home for this one and really aren't used to facing teams from Power 5 Conferences in back to back weeks. They hosted a Pac-12 foe (Stanford) last week and now face an ACC foe this week in Pittsburgh. The Panthers only have Delaware on deck and their fully focused on this game after getting blasted at Central Florida last season. By the way, the Panthers entered this season 7-1 ATS when playing with revenge against a team that is off a SU/ATS win the prior week. That system fits here as UCF blasted the Cardinal last week. The Golden Knights do have their AAC opener on deck and this is the first time this season they have to leave the state of Florida. Plus how good is this UCF team really? They've played Florida A & M, Florida Atlantic, and a normally strong Stanford team that truly seems to have fallen apart this season. Look for the scrappy home dog Panthers to keep this game much closer than many are expect. 8* PITTSBURGH

Conference Clash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Friday 10* Top Play Boise State Broncos (-) vs Air Force Falcons @ 9 ET - With this line having dropped to a solid painted 7 across the board as of early Friday morning it is "go time" with Boise State in this one. Air Force is off a huge effort on the road at Colorado last week in an emotionally charged OT win over the Buffaloes. Now the Falcons are in the 2nd of B2B road games while Boise State is enjoying the comforts of home. The Broncos are enjoying an entire month at home actually as they haven't been on the road since their season opening win over the Seminoles down in Florida at the end of August. Boise State has a bye week on deck before traveling to UNLV for their first game of October. From a situational standpoint, this one favors the Broncos in a big way. Also, even though Air Force would like to get payback for losing at home to Boise State last season, the fact is that the Falcons are 0-7 ATS when they are on the road and playing with revenge and are coming off consecutive SU (and ATS) wins. That is the case here and I like the fact that the Broncos return 7 starters on defense this season, are doing a great job against the run this season, and also have done a solid job against Air Force's option attack the past two seasons. The Falcons have covered just 2 of their past 7 Mountain West road openers. The Broncos, as a home favorite of 7 points or less, are 9-3 ATS! This one has definitely dropped into their sweet spot and I especially like this after oddsmakers had opened this one up at nearly a double digit line! 10* BOISE STATE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #303 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 8 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Tulane has a strong defensive line. However, the Cougars are well-coached (particularly on offense) and they also have a ton of talent at the skill positions. Houston will figure out ways to quickly get the ball in the hands of their play-makers and combat an aggressive Green Wave defensive line. Also, the Tulane secondary is where the weakness lies with their defense. That said, Houston will certainly test that as well. The Cougars are 1-2 SU on the season but the two losses were to Oklahoma and Washington State! Tulane is 2-1 SU on the season but their two wins were over FIU (CUSA school) and Missouri State (FCS school). Although the Green Wave did play (and lost) against Auburn, I feel the schedule has Houston as the more battle-tested team heading into this one. I also love the line move here. This one opened up as low as a 2.5 globally but is now up to as high as a 5.5 as of game day morning. I love the value with the road dog that possesses the stronger offense in this match-up. Keep in mind, Tulane's offense really sputtered it their only game against quality competition. I know the Cougars defense is an area of concern (again) this season but the Green Wave are getting a little too much respect here. Tulane is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they have entered a contest off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. Houston is 7-0 ATS in the 1st of B2B road games and they are at North Texas next week. In addition to the combined 12-0 (100%) ATS mark I am happy to test here, note that the Cougars are 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they have been on the road against Tulane. The Green Wave, when playing after a win by a margin of 21 or more points, are 1-5 ATS. Again, I am testing the aforementioned 12-0 combined ATS mark with a hungry road dog that should be in this game all the way and has a great shot at the upset. 10* HOUSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #194 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 8 ET - Nebraska is off an inexcusable loss at Colorado last week and that means they are going to come back home and put a beating on a foe that can't keep up. The Cornhuskers go from a road game against a Pac-12 team to now hosting a MAC team and this one is going to get ugly quick as Nebraska takes out the frustration of blowing a 17-0 lead against the Buffaloes last week. The Huskers have a lot to play for besides last week's loss too. Two years ago Nebraska hosted Northern Illinois and lost 21-17 as a double digit favorite. Of course that makes this a revenge spot for the Cornhuskers and note that the Huskies entered this season 0-5 ATS when they are off a non-conference game and now facing a team that is off a SU/ATS loss and playing with revenge. That is a 100% perfect situation that is in play here with the Huskers having revenge from the 2017 game plus coming off an outright upset loss at Colorado in OT last week. This is the final non-conference home game for Nebraska and they need a much better performance in their final tune-up before Big Ten action begins next week at Illinois. The Cornhuskers were unimpressive in their season opening win over South Alabama and then only played one good half at Colorado last week after that season-opening wake up call from the Jaguars. Now, after what happened last week with the OT loss to the Buffaloes, look for the Huskers to finally put it together for the full 60 minutes in this one. Prior to losing the last meeting by 4 points, the Huskers had beaten the Huskies by a combined 77 points in the two prior meetings! Remember Northern Illinois has a new head coach in Thomas Hammock and this is a 2nd straight road game for the Huskies. It is payback time and the Huskers are an angry bunch. The Huskies are walking right into a hornets nest in this one because the talent level disparity is too great and the home team is motivated by last week and by revenge. 10* NEBRASKA

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #160 Saturday 8* Michigan State Spartans (-) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 4 ET - As long-time followers know I am generally against the line moves and very rarely am on the same side as a move. This is one of those rare exceptions and I have been waiting for this match-up for a long time and will not shy away from it even with the line being nearly painted 14.5 across the board as of Friday evening. Michigan State didn't just lose at Arizona State last year, they lost the game on a late field goal after never trailing the entire game. Now they get their long-awaited shot at revenge and they get it on their home field while the Sun Devils make their first road trek of the season. Note that ASU has won just TWICE in their last 11 road openers! Okay, so Sparty gets the win but what about covering the large spread here? Couple keys to that. One is revenge as, because of what happened last season, the Spartans will NOT take their foot off the gas here no matter what the score is. Secondly, Arizona State is going to have a helluva time scoring on this Michigan State defense! When you put those two factors together you have great potential for an absolutely massive home blowout! I also like the fact that Michigan State really got their offense going in a big way last week against Western Michigan. Certainly facing the Broncos was a tougher challenge than the Sacramento State team that Arizona State struggled with last week. Not only did the Sun Devils have less than 100 yards of offense at the half, they didn't even get the game-deciding touchdown until under 5 minutes were left in the game! Spartans are going to have tremendous intensity for this game and it will get ugly. They have one of the, if not the, best defenses in the nation and their offense used the Western Michigan game as a tune up for laying the boom on the Sun Devils this week. 8* MICHIGAN STATE

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #135 Saturday 8* Stanford Cardinal (+) @ Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Stanford got rolled 45-20 at USC last week and this game is a classic example of over-reaction by the marketplace. Now everyone is viewing the Cardinal as trash and as having no chance in this game against Central Florida. This has resulted in a big line move toward the Golden Knights and the result is solid value on the Pac-12 dog no one wants here. If you think the Cardinal aren't going to come to play after giving up 45 points last week to the Trojans you don't understand the mindset of a proud football team. The Cardinals aren't used to getting beat like they did last week. They were a field goal underdog in that game and it got ugly. They make up for that performance here. Central Florida's first two games this season were against Florida A & M and Florida Atlantic. Stanford, on the other hand, faced a Big Ten team (Northwestern) and then a Pac-12 foe (Southern Cal) in conference action last week. In other words, BIG difference in the quality of opponents faced. That is not being viewed properly by the markets here. Keep in mind, UCF lost a lot of starters from last season's defense also. This line is now in the 9 to 9.5 range and that is worth noting as Stanford is 8-0 ATS the last 8 times they have been a dog of more than 8 points. Also, though they have Oregon on deck, the Cardinal are actually a fantastic 12-1 ATS when they enter a game with the Ducks up next. Off last week's beatdown they bring a huge effort on the road and they certainly won't look past a ranked UCF team. 8* STANFORD

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #116 Saturday 8* Temple Owls (+) vs Maryland Terrapins @ Noon ET - The Terrapins are a popular choice right now because they blew out Syracuse last week and have looked great in their first two games. However, Maryland faced a very weak team in week one and then faced an Orange team in week two that was looking ahead to hosting Clemson this week. Sure some credit is due to Maryland but they're getting far too much credit now as they lay a TD on the road against a Temple team that is coming off a bye week and that throttled them last season. The Terrapins are 1-9 ATS the last 10 times they were off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. Maryland does have a bye on deck but Temple's situation is even better as they are coming off a bye. Don't be surprised if the Terrapins come into this game overconfident after back to back blowout wins and knowing they have their Big Ten opener (Penn State) coming up after their bye week. Grab the big home dog. 8* TEMPLE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #369 Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (-) @ Texas Longhorns @ 7:30 ET - Both teams are off easy wins last week as they faced easy opponents. That said, it is hard to say we know much about either team at this point since neither team faced a true test. However, what I do know is that Texas lost a lot of key players on both sides of the ball from last season and I felt coming into this season that some strong value would be available going against them early when they're facing a strong opponent. Certainly LSU fits into that category very well. In my mind, the Horns are still highly ranked in part because of what they did last season and whom their QB is. However, the Longhorns lost so much from last season's team. As for the Tigers I feel the best is yet to come and their time has arrived. Their offense got stronger and stronger as the season went on as QB Joe Burrow got more and more comfortable. Unlike Texas, LSU returned 8 starters on each side of the ball and this should be reflect in more early-season continuity as well. The fact this game is at Texas is helping to give us value as the Tigers would be a very large favorite if this game was at Baton Rouge. With LSU being on the road we've got a very manageable number to work with and I'll lay it! The Tigers are 3-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and also a long-term 4-1 ATS against Big 12 opponents. The Longhorns are 0-5 ATS the past two seasons in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 points. Texas lost too much from last season while the Tigers are much stronger than they were last season in my opinion. 10* LSU

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 South Florida Bulls (+) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 2 ET - South Florida got obliterated by Wisconsin last week while the Yellow Jackets also got blasted last week at Clemson. The Bulls missed the mark by a mile and they'll be ready to respond here as, of course their offense is much better than what it showed in an embarrassing loss to the Badgers last week. As for Georgia Tech, the problem with their offense has a lot to with the system. The Yellow Jackets are changing things up this season and they're going to have growing pains as a result. I love fading favorites when they are going through changes and still very early in the implementation mode. In this case, after so many years running the triple option at Georgia Tech, pain comes with the change. South Florida has SC State on deck so there is certainly no lookahead. Even though the Yellow Jackets are playing this game with revenge, the bigger story with that is that they lost to USF by double digits last season even though they were a better team then. Truly the Jackets are going to struggle in this campaign with what amounts to a "transition year" for them. The Bulls got embarrassed at home as they were blasted right away in the first half. That is noteworthy here as South Florida is 8-1 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. As for Georgia Tech, they are in the same situation, but they are 1-4 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. USF has now lost 7 straight games but they were a double digit dog in 5 of those 7 games. Look for the Bulls to make the most of this "winnable" game opportunity. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #306 Saturday 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 11 AM ET - This line has dropped from as high as a -7 down to a -4 as of Friday afternoon. Yes, Pittsburgh lost last week while Ohio won but there was a big difference in level of competition. The Panthers faced ACC foe Virginia while the Bobcats took on Rhode Island! That is a huge difference and speaking of differences, lets not forget the disparity between the MAC and ACC. Additionally, the Panthers also have the home field edge here. Simply put, this one has been bet down too low and now offers great value on the home favorite. Pittsburgh is well aware of the fact that they really need this game if they're to avoid an 0-4 start as they have very tough match-ups (Penn State and UCF) on deck! Both teams lost quite a bit from last season's respective teams but the Bobcats lost even more. The Ohio offense returns only 4 starters and they'll be exposed this week after taking advantage of a weak opponent last week. Conversely, the Panthers are the team taking advantage of a lesser foe this week as they take advantage of a step down in level of competition after facing a tough Virginia team last week. Last week the Bobcats faced a Rhode Island team that is an FCS school. This will the Ohio's first game against an FBS team this season and, the past 3 seasons they are 0-3 ATS in their first game of the season against an FBS team. 8* PITTSBURGH

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #301 Friday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Rice Owls @ 8 ET - The Demon Deacons have plenty of momentum after scoring late to beat a solid Utah State last week. Wake Forest has a quick strike offense and loves to play fast. Their average scoring drive last week was less than a 2 and 1/2 minutes. This presents a match-up problem for a Rice team that scored only 7 points last week. Yes that game was on the road and this one is at home for the Owls. However, Rice is actually a poor 1-6 ATS when they are at home following a game in which they scored less than 10 points. Also, last season the Demon Deacons were up 42-3 by halftime of their game against the Owls. Wake Forest then cruised to the 56-24 victory. That said, I like the value here with the Demon Deacons laying less points in this one because it is on the road. The fact is that, even though it is on the road, Wake Forest has edges all over the field and, just as was the case in last season's match-up, the Owls will not be able to keep up on the scoreboard. I also like the fact that the Demon Deacons failed to cover last week while Rice had an easy ATS cover. Now the roles reverse this week! 10* WAKE FOREST

ESPN Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #217 Monday 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Louisville Cardinals @ 8 ET - I like the hiring of Scott Satterfield as the new head coach for Louisville and, eventually, he is going to lead the Cardinals back to success. However, this program is in a complete rebuild right now after last year's disastrous 2-10 campaign. Satterfield had great success at Appalachian State but let's go back to his first year there for comparison's sake. The Mountaineers started the season 2-8 in their first 10 games under Satterfield. Their opening game that season saw them get blasted 30 to 6. Satterfield had his work cut out for him then and the same holds true here. He is known as a strong offensive mind but they've had to simplify the offense this season for QB Jawon Pass. Mistakes were too prevalent last season and now the Cardinals open their new season facing a tough Notre Dame team that is anxious to finally have a chance to put last season's playoff beatdown (versus Clemson) behind them. The Fighting Irish have been waiting ever since January for someone to punch in the mouth. Now that "someone" is Louisville and the Irish are the better team all over the field in this game. They are so explosive on offense thanks to QB Book and they are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame will beat the Cardinals at the point of attack all game long and this one turns into a road rout. Louisville is 2-9 ATS the last 11 times they have been an underdog. In games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points Notre Dame is 9-4 ATS the past two seasons. The Irish allowed just 18 points per game while the Cardinals allowed an average of 57 points per game their final 7 games of last season. 10* NOTRE DAME

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #186 Saturday 10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal (-) vs Northwestern Wildcats @ 4 ET - It seems like only yesterday when, here in Vegas where I live now, the first lines for CFB came out for small limit wagers. One of the big movers then (in late May) was on this game as the Cardinal were opened up as a double digit favorite but quickly got bet down to a -7. Now, as of the night before the game, the line is down to a -6 and it is "go time" for me on a game I have had my eyes on ever since the "false move" by the market 3 months ago. Why is the market mistaken here in my opinion? It is because they're looking at a match-up featuring a pair of teams that each won 9 games last season and felt that in an "even match-up" the big line was way off. However, the fact is that this is no longer an "even match-up" because the Wildcats are going to be vastly different from the 2018 team! Losing QB Clayton Thorson (now with the Philadelphia Eagles) has this Northwestern offense looking much weaker and the Wildcats also lost their leading receiver from last year's team. I know what you're thinking...Stanford also lost a lot from last year's team too. However, they have a strong QB in KJ Costello and his guidance for the Cardinal offense will be a key here as the Wildcats struggle to get acclimated to life without QB Thorson. Northwestern has gone 2-5 ATS in non-conference games the past two seasons. The Cardinal are a long-term 5-0 SU (and 4-1 ATS) in August games and also enter this game on a 6-3 ATS run in their last 9 home games. Home field makes a difference here as the Cardinal get payback for a 10 point loss at Northwestern as a 10 point favorite to open up the 2015 season. Of course these players weren't here for that but the coaches were and David Shaw is in his 9th season with Stanford and that is the ONE AND ONLY time that the Cardinal have started a season with a loss under Shaw's watch. It is PAYBACK time here. 10* STANFORD

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #291 Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (-) vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7 ET @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL - This line opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped to a 7. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move and laying the points here. Florida was 10-3 last season and that was head coach Dan Mullen's first season with the team. I am projecting the Gators to be even stronger now that it will be Mullen's second season at the helm. Mullen has been a head coach since 2009. As for the Hurricanes Manny Diaz, he has never been a head coach at any level of football. Yes, he had been the defensive coordinator for the Hurricanes under Mark Richt but being a head coach is still a much different task. While the Gators have experience at the QB position, the Hurricanes are starting a redshirt freshman. Jarren Williams is likely to struggle here against a talented Florida defense. Yes the Hurricanes defense also certainly commands respect but I like the talent level of the Gators (including on offense) and expect them to have some success putting points on the board. I give Mullen the coaching edge, the Gators the overall experience edge, and I like the fact that the Hurricanes are 7-9 since they were 10-0 and ranked 2nd in the nation back in 2017. It has been all downhill since then for the Canes and the Gators are off a 10-win season they are fully prepared to build on as well. The Hurricanes are on a 9-16 ATS slide the past two seasons. The Gators are 6-2 ATS in non-conference games the past two seasons. Look for the SEC to flex its muscles again in this battle with an ACC foe that is likely to endure some growing pains early this season as they adjust to Diaz at the helm plus an inexperienced quarterback. 10* FLORIDA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #801 Eastern Washington Eagles (+) vs North Dakota State Bison @ Noon ET in FCS Championship Game @ Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX - The Bison are looking to win their 7th title in the last 8 seasons. However, this will be the final game for North Dakota State head coach Chris Klieman as he accepted the head coaching job at Kansas State - replacing Bill Snyder home finally retired. This could be a bit of a distraction for the Bison no doubt. While they are the better team defensively in this match-up, the Eagles are arguably the better offense and grabbing the big points with Eastern Washington is the way to go. The Eagles have averaged 540 yards per game compared to 470 yards per game for the Bison. Eastern Washington QB Eric Barriere has stepped in and been fantastic (24 TDs, 7 INTs) after starting QB Gage Gubrud got hurt after just 5 games. The point being that the Eagles have been even better since the injury to Gubrud. Though the Bison have the huge experience edge in Title Games and have each of their last 6 appearances, the Eagles did win their only other appearance and it was here @ Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX in 2010. Considering the possible coaching distraction as well as the huge points that are offered, North Dakota State (currently as high as a 16.5 point favorite) are over-priced here. Yes the Bison have rolled through the playoffs but that has resulted in an inflated line here and, don't forget, the Eagles offense is so potent it certainly has backdoor cover potential (should that be needed) but I expect them to hang in tough throughout this game. 10* EASTERN WASHINGTON

January Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #278 Tuesday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Texas Longhorns in Sugar Bowl @ Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, LA - The Bulldogs are out to prove they belong in the CFB Playoffs and I expect they will do just that. Sure Georgia is disappointed about their loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and the fact that kept them out of the Playoff. However, they've had a full month to get over that and they are out to prove they still should have gotten the call for the CFB Playoffs. In my mind, it already has been proven. While Georgia played Alabama very tough in the SEC Championship Game (and truly should have won) and also lost last year's CFB Championship to the Crimson Tide in OT, let's talk about Oklahoma for a second. Yes, the same Sooners team that beat these same Longhorns in the Big 12 Championship Game and very nearly rallied to beat the Horns in their annual Red River Rivalry Game during the regular season got absolutely annihilated by the Crimson Tide in the Bowl Playoff Game. The point is that just like Oklahoma getting smashed by Alabama, I feel another Big 12 team is going to find out they don't match up well with an SEC powerhouse either! The Bulldogs, in my mind, are right up there with Alabama and Clemson as the top 3 teams in the nation while Texas finished up the season going 3-3 SU in their last 6 games. The 3 wins for the Longhorns came against 3 Big 12 teams with a combined record of 16-21 this season. Texas allows nearly 100 yards more per game than Georgia and the Bulldogs ground game averages nearly 100 yards more rushing per game. UT enters this game on a 2-6 ATS run. The Bulldogs went 6-1 ATS this season against teams with a winning record and are a long-term 7-1 ATS in games in which they are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Blowout alert! 10* GEORGIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #272 Tuesday 8* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 1 ET in Citrus Bowl @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL - Penn State head coach James Franklin was the head coach at Vanderbilt before he came to the Nittany Lions beginning with the 2014 season. Of course the Commodores are an SEC team and Franklin has some extra familiarity with Kentucky as a result. In fact Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops began his career there in 2013 and Franklin's Vandy team beat Kentucky by 16 points in their lone meeting. Another double digit win is what I expect in this bowl game for Franklin's Nittany Lions. Note that Stoops has a losing record overall and has gone 0-2 in bowls while Franklin has enjoyed great success with Penn State and is also 3-1 ATS in bowls. Kentucky has a solid defense but their weakness is offense and the Wildcats simply won't be able to keep up with the Nittany Lions here. Also, when playing outside the SEC, Kentucky tends to be overvalued. The Cats are 3-11 ATS their last 14 non-conference games. As for PSU, they are 19-2 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. While the Lions enter this bowl game having won 3 straight games, Kentucky wrapped up the season on a mediocre 4-3 SU run and went an ugly 2-5 ATS in those game. 8* PENN STATE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #264 Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) vs Missouri Tigers @ 3:45 ET in Liberty Bowl @ Liberty Bowl Stadium in Memphis, TN - I love taking the undervalued 6-6 team in a spot like this. Of course the Tigers are a big favorite as they are 8-4 and play in the SEC. However, not enough respect is being given to a Cowboys team that has a very dangerous offense. In fact, the Oklahoma State offense is the exact type of offense that makes a team a threat for a backdoor cover should one be needed here. That's because the Cowboys can score in a hurry. I also like the fact that OSU has gone 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS) in non-conference games. Additionally, the Cowboys are on a 8-2 ATS run (including 7 outright upsets!) as an underdog! Keep in mind, the underdog is on a PERFECT 7-0 ATS run in Oklahoma State's last 7 games. The Cowboys beat West Virginia and Texas during that stretch plus lost by just a single point as a 3 TD underdog against Oklahoma! As for Missouri, the Tigers lost to Kentucky and South Carolina plus lost by 2 TDs to Georgia and 4 TDs to Alabama. The point is that, even though Missouri is 8-4 this season, they did struggle against quality opposition. That said, I am comfortable challenging them to win this game by double digits. Missouri is 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) when playing with 2 or more weeks between games. Also, the Tigers long-term run in December games is an ugly 4-11 SU (3-12 ATS). Look for those trends to continue here. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE

Bowl Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #256 Saturday 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (-) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Cotton Bowl @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX @ 4 ET - Doesn't it seem surprising to see an undefeated team that statistically has played the tougher schedule installed as a double digit dog? As expected, the public sure thinks so! The Fighting Irish have received plenty of attention in terms of number of tickets written but the sharp money (including mine!) is on Clemson here. The Tigers have the playoff experience and are so strong in the trenches! I look for the Clemson defensive line to be particularly dominant in this game and that will be a key. The Tigers last 8 games featured one rare poor game defensively against South Carolina (but Clemson still won by a 21 point margin) but the other 7 games saw them allow just 9.9 points per game! The Fighting Irish have covered only twice in their last six games. Notre Dame was somewhat fortunate in their win at USC to close out the regular season and that was the 5th time this year that the Irish have been held to 24 points or less. The Tigers have NEVER been held below 27 points this season and they've played 13 games. In fact, in 10 of those games they scored 35 points or more. Knowing how dominant the Tigers defense is and how dynamic their offense is, this one is going to turn into a rout. It may stay close early but look for Clemson, as per usual, to exert their dominance as they wear down Notre Dame as the game goes on. The Fighting Irish are on a 6-13 ATS run in bowl games. The Tigers are 11-4 ATS (including 5-1 this season) when they are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Tigers head coach Swinney is 8-3 ATS in bowls and they're looking to make up for last year's loss in the CFB finals. Fighting Irish coach Kelly is just 3-4 SU and ATS in bowls. Advantage to the big favorite here all the way around and I expect a blowout rout. 10* CLEMSON

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #249 Saturday 8* Florida Gators (+) vs Michigan Wolverines in Peach Bowl @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA @ Noon ET - Florida went 4-0 SU and ATS in non-conference games this season while Michigan went 1-2 ATS. The Wolverines are also an ugly 1-4 ATS when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. The Gators are 4-1 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Michigan enters this bowl having failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games. A number of Wolverines players are out for this game including RB Karan Higdon. Look for them to still have a bit of a hangover too from the demoralizing season-ending blowout loss to Ohio State. Gators head coach Mullen is 5-2 SU in bowls. Michigan head coach Harbaugh has a losing record in bowls after being the lone Big Ten to lose in the bowls last year. Look for the Wolverines to continue to be a disappointment here. 8* FLORIDA

Game of the Month Side - Rickenbach CFB Game #244 Friday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Syracuse Orange @ 5:15 ET in Camping World Bowl @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL - The Mountaineers were favored by a TD before QB Will Grier announced he was skipping the bowl. While the absence of star QB Grier is significant, we've now seen a 10-point swing on this line as West Virginia has gone from a 7 point favorite to a 3 point dog. The Mountaineers TEAM is not made up of just ONE player. Also, the QB that West Virginia will use is not some guy they just picked up yesterday off the streets. 6'6 Jack Allison is a sophomore whom played in multiple games this season. Trey Lowe III, a 6'2 freshman, will also be available. With the extra practice time afforded by all the bowl practices the Mountaineers have an "wide open playbook" for this one per coach Dana Holgorsen. West Virginia is aware of the line on this game. They are aware that no one is giving them a chance in this game without Grier. Yes I am aware of WR Gary Jennings JR and offensive tackle Yodny Cajuste also being out for this game. However, the Orange defense (which was already a MAJOR weakness of the team) is expected to be without a defensive end, defensive tackle, AND defensive back for this bowl game! Syracuse does have a strong offense but, from playing the high-flying Big 12, West Virginia is certainly used to facing high-paced dangerous offenses. The Mountaineers are also highly motivated here because, as noted above, no one is giving them a chance in this one. The Orange are just 2-3 SU in their last 5 games away from home. West Virginia went 3-1 away from home this season prior to a tough 4-point loss at Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers went an undefeated 3-0-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. The Orange went only 2-2 SU against teams with a winning record this season. I am happy to fade the masses here as Syracuse plays in the ACC. Think about it. Who impressed in the ACC this season other than, of course, Clemson! The Orange are over-rated and the Mountaineers defense, constantly ridiculed, gives one of its best efforts of the season today to support the Grier-less offense. 10* WEST VIRGINIA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #235 Thursday 8* Temple Owls (-) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 1:30 ET in Independence Bowl @ Independence Stadium in Shreveport, LA - Temple has an interim coach but it the same interim coach they had for their bowl game after the 2016 season. In other words, there is still some continuity here. Also, the Owls dominated on defense for much of the season. Temple allowed 19 points or less in 8 of their last 12 games. Taking a look at the Blue Devils defense, they allowed 329 rushing yards per game their last 5 games. In other words, they faded badly as the season went on. Also, a key player on defense, Jon Giles-Harris, is still being bothered by a knee injury and the Duke linebacker is questionable for this game. Yes, the Blue Devils played a tougher schedule than Temple did but they wrapped up the season with back to back losses and the Blue Devils are the type of team that, when they get in a funk, it often continues. In fact, Duke is 4-11 SU the last 15 times when off a loss in conference action. Also, the Blue Devils are 6-11 SU (including 1-3 SU this season) when facing a team with a winning record. Temple is 8-1 SU and ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. The Owls are also 11-2 ATS (including 4-0 ATS this season) in games played on turf. With QB Anthony Russo and RB Ryquell Armstead both upgraded to probable for this game. Look for the Owls to take advantage of a Duke defense that faded as the season went on. 8* TEMPLE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #222 Saturday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (-) vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Noon ET - The absence of QB Sam Hartman and WR Greg Dortch is very significant for the Demon Deacons whereas the absence of RB Darrell Henderson for the Tigers is made up for by the fact they have another very talented runner in Patrick Taylor. Wake Forest finished the season with a blowout win at Duke but, prior to that, the Demon Deacons had allowed at least 316 passing yards in 4 of their 5 prior games. Wake Forest was so torched through the air in their two games just prior to the Blue Devils win, teams didn't have to run the ball on them well. But do not that prior to that the Demon Deacons run defense allowed 253 yards per game. The Tigers, even without Henderson, have Taylor and Tony Pollard and will do plenty of damage against this struggling run defense. The Demon Deacons went 2-7 ATS in games played on turf this season while the Tigers went 7-4 ATS on turf and will take advantage of the fast track at Legion Field in Birmingham, AL. Wake Forest is also on a 1-4 ATS run when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games while Memphis is on a 4-2 ATS run when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. The Tigers defense got embarrassed in their loss at Central Florida 3 weeks ago (the 2nd time they blew a double-digit 2nd half lead against the Golden Knights this season) and they will make up for that here. 10* MEMPHIS

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #213 Wednesday 8* Ohio University Bobcats (-) vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 8 ET - Ohio University has lost 5 of 7 against Mountain West Conference opponents. San Diego State is undefeated all-time against Mid-American Conference opponents. 13 wins and 1 tie in 14 meetings with MAC foes. That said, the odds makers are clueless, right? They made Ohio University the favorite in this match-up. This is a gift, right? While this will be the prevailing thought among many bettors, of course neither of those statements are true. Long-time followers know how I feel about situations like this and I expect the Bobcats to prevail and get a huge win in this win. Keep in mind this is not the same Aztecs team we've seen in recent seasons while Ohio University wrapped up the season going 7-2 SU in their last 9 games. In fact, while the Bobcats were very impressive in beating Buffalo 52-17 late in the year (and have now scored 49 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games), San Diego State has dropped 3 straight to end the season even with Chapman and Washington back! Also, 2 of the 3 losses were home games against UNLV and Hawaii where Aztecs were double digit favorites and lost outright! The once vaunted San Diego State defense has allowed 447.3 yards per game their last 3 games. The past 2+ seasons, the Aztecs are 3-9 ATS in games played against teams with a winning record. The Bobcats, in the same period of time, are 7-1 ATS in games played against teams with a winning record. 8* OHIO UNIVERSITY

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #211 Tuesday 10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies (+) vs UAB Blazers in Boca Raton Bowl @ 7 ET - The location of this bowl game (Boca Raton, FL) certainly favors the Blazers. However, the Huskies have faced a much tougher schedule this season UAB has. This is leading to some significant line value here with Northern Illinois. Additionally, I like the way the Huskies rallied against a quality Buffalo team to win the MAC Championship Game on the final day of November. Of course UNI is known for their quality defense but to see them comeback like they did against the Bulls also says a little something about the offensive capability of this team. The Huskies average points per game their last 11 games has been held down by two poor performances (vs Mia-OH and @ BYU). In the other 9 games, Northern Illinois has averaged scoring 25.8 points per game. The Huskies have a strong ground game on offense but it was also impressive to see them throw for 300 yards in the MAC Championship win over Buffalo. UAB has the better record on the season but has faced the much softer schedule and I look for the Blazers to be exposed in this game! Also, UAB is 0-3 (SU and ATS) in games played on grass and 0-2 (SU and ATS) in games against MAC opponents. UNI is a long-term 25-13 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. Also, the Huskies are 4-2 ATS (and 5-1 SU!) this season in games against teams with a winning record. 10* NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #208 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Southern Eagles (-) vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 5:30 ET - Eastern Michigan is 0-3 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Georgia Southern is 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this season. Eastern Michigan had a late season bye and that doesn't necessarily help them here as they will be playing for just the 2nd time since their November 10th win versus Akron. Also, Eastern Michigan is 1-12 ATS when they face an opponent off B2B SU (and ATS) wins. That system fits here as Georgia Southern finished off the season with back to back wins and covers. Unlike Eastern Michigan, Georgia Southern did have a game on Saturday November 17th. This should lead to a little less "rust" for them in comparison with Eastern Michigan. Army, a ground-based attack like Georgia Southern, completely dominated time of possession in a win at Eastern Michigan in late October. Look for Georgia Southern to dominate in similar fashion with their option attack in this game. Eastern Michigan was 3-0 SU to finish the season but they benefited greatly from turnovers in those 3 games. Nothing close to that is likely to happen here as Georgia Southern has done a great job in the turnover department all season long. The ATS trends noted above are 19-1 / 95% in our favor here. 10* GEORGIA SOUTHERN 

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #317 Saturday 10* Top Play Fresno State Bulldogs (+) vs Boise State Broncos @ 7:45 ET in MWC Championship Game at Albertson's Stadium in Boise, ID - The Broncos continue to find a way to get past the Bulldogs in recent meetings despite the great improvement we've seen from Fresno State recently. I feel strongly however that Boise State's "luck" runs out here. The Broncos are a great team but they are not on the level they were in other recent campaigns. Though Boise State has beaten Fresno State in each of their 2 most recent meetings, the Bulldogs have had a lead in each of the last 3 games (including leads at half-time and beyond and into 4th quarter) and yet have lost each of the last 2 games. It is payback time here. I know that Boise has the location edge here but the Broncos strength is their passing game and Fresno State has a strong pass defense. That said, the key edge here is the Bulldogs potent passing attack going against a Boise State pass defense that has struggled at times this season. Winds will be light for this game so despite chilly temperatures and some light snow or light rain, the passing game can flourish with no impact expected from wind here. That said, the Bulldogs hold a big edge thanks to being the much better pass defense. Finally they get their revenge here.  Boise State is 1-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. Fresno State is 12-2 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. Road team revenge here for the Bulldogs. 10* FRESNO STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #312 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) vs Texas Longhorns in Big 12 Championship Game @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX - Big mistake by the odds makers, right? They made Oklahoma more than a TD favorite here even though each of the 3 most recent meetings have been decided by 5 or less points. Of course it is not a "mistake" folks. In typical contrarian fashion I am laying the points with the Sooners here but, of course, it is not without good reason. These teams last met on October 6th and that 3-point loss for Oklahoma ended up getting their defensive coordinator fired. Though the Sooners defense has been "up and down" since then, they have not forgotten the loss to UT as well as the subsequent dismissal of their DC. Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 SU since that defeat and the average margin of victory has been 14 points. I am expecting an OU win by at least that margin in this "rematch" game! The Sooners are 12-6 ATS in games against teams with a winning record and 5-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Texas is 3-7 ATS when the Horns enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. 8* OKLAHOMA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #305 Friday 8* Utah Utes (+) vs Washington Huskies @ 8 ET in Pac-12 Championship Game @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA - The Utes are dealing with injury issues at QB and RB but they gained a lot of confidence with last week's comeback win over BYU. Utah was actually down 20 late in the 3rd quarter and then came all the way back and won the game 35 to 27. That game, of course, was not a factor in the Pac-12 so the fact the Utes closed that game strong gives them plenty of momentum now heading into the Pac-12 Championship. Of course this is a contrarian play as the early line move has gone the way of Washington. That is because of the injury situation for Utah as well as the fact that the Huskies beat the Utes by two touchdowns earlier this season. However, note that Washington has since gone 1-7 ATS as a favorite (last week's win at Washington State was a dog). I like the fact that the Utes are on a 7-2 ATS run as an underdog and 14-5 ATS run in games played on a neutral field. Utah has turned the ball over just once in its last 3 games while the Huskies turned the ball over 3 times against the Cougars last week. Washington has now turned the ball over 7 times in its last 4 games away from home. The Huskies have held the upper hand in this match-up in recent years but payback is on order for the Utes in this one. Utah has forced 11 turnovers in it last 4 games away from home. The Utes are 13-2 ATS when they are facing an opponent with a winning percentage under .850 that is coming off a SU win by a double digit margin. The Huskies, off that 13 point win at Washington State, fall short of the cover in this one and I am expecting an upset but grabbing the generous points being offered. 8* UTAH

The CFB Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #181 Saturday 10* Top Play Utah State (+) over Boise State @ 10:15 ET - Utah State's ground game is producing 217 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry.  Boise State's rushing attack is producing 159 yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry.  The Aggies also have an edge in terms of pass defense on the season. Utah State is allowing only 52.3% pass completions and 6.6 yards per pass attempt.  Boise State is allowing 63% pass completions and 8.2 yards per pass attempt.  The winner of this game goes to the Mountain West title game (will face Fresno State) and Boise State is a popular choice here due to their very successful home record over many seasons.  This home factoring for the Broncos is of course already playing a big role in the line because the Aggies are such a strong team and yet are getting points here due to Boise State's high success rate in home games.. The result here is line value with Utah State.  The Aggies are seeking revenge for a blowout loss at home versus Boise State last season.  Utah State was out-gained by only 26 yards in the prior year's meeting (at Boise State) and the year before that the Aggies blew out the Broncos 52-26.  The point is that Utah State (last year notwithstanding) was starting to turn the corner in this series (under head coach Matt Wells) and I expect that to continue here on Saturday night.  Also, the Broncos are off a big win at New Mexico and they are on an 0-5 ATS run when off a game against the Lobos.  Of course that 5-0 ATS play against situation is in play here as Boise State is off a trip to New Mexico.  The Aggies do enter this game on a 10-game winning streak SU.  Also, the Broncos are 4-8 ATS their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.  I expect an upset win here and won't be surprised when the Aggies win this game in a road rout. 10* Utah State

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #226 Saturday 8* USC Trojans (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 8 ET - Huge line move toward Notre Dame here has opened up solid underdog value with home dog USC. The home team is actually on a 5-0 run (both SU and ATS) in this series. After what happened last season at South Bend (worst loss ever for Trojans in this storied long-time rivalry), I look for Southern Cal to give the Irish all they can handle here. Yes, it has been a down season for the Trojans this season and they need to get the upset win here to become bowl eligible. However, USC would be highly motivated here even if that wasn't the case. I know Notre Dame has had a fine season of course but the Trojans (despite their 5-6 record) are still a very talented football team that has played a schedule with a strength level just as strong as the one the Fighting Irish have faced. Also, Notre Dame is on a 3-6 ATS run in games played on grass and 3-8 ATS run in November games. Southern Cal is on an 8-2 SU run (and 7-3 ATS) in November games. The Trojans are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they've hosted ND. Also, the Fighting Irish are on an 0-5 ATS run when they are off a game in which they scored more than 35 points and are on the road and facing a team playing with revenge. That systems fits perfectly here and I love the big home dog in a game that will be much more competitive than many are expecting. 8* SOUTHERN CAL

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #218 Saturday 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 3:30 ET - This line opened up with SMU barely favored. As expected the Mustangs have moved up to being a 3 point choice as of early game-day morning. Of course everyone jumped on the opportunity to fade a 2-9 Tulsa team. The Golden Hurricane, though only playing for pride, are looking to make the most of senior day and would love to spoil the Mustangs hopes of becoming bowl eligible. Though SMU certainly has some motivation to get the 6th win, don't underestimate the fact that they also have to be deflated after last week. Why? Well the Mustangs entered last week still having a shot at getting to the AAC title game. But SMU lost 28-18 at Memphis and was outgained 208 to 25 on the ground! Now the Mustangs go from playing for a shot to reach the AAC championship game to just playing to make a bowl. Certainly that is still motivation but how much will SMU have left in the tank? I feel it won't be enough to get by a Tulsa team looking to close out the season with a big home win and whom would love to end SMU's bowl hopes. The Golden Hurricane are allowing just 24.8 points per game in home games this season. The Mustangs are allowing 42.4 points per game in road games this year! SMU is a long-term 16-29 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. Look for the Mustangs to drop to 4-8 (both ATS and SU) in games played in November. 8* TULSA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #161 Saturday 8* Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - The first reaction here is to look at this game the line as "off" because the Wolverines are laying more than a field goal at Ohio State. Of course the reality is that Michigan is the much better team this season and this line is absolutely justified. In fact, this is a game that the Wolverines should win by a double digit margin and that is the reason this one easily earned a spot on my Saturday card. Michigan is allowing just 13.5 points and 234.8 yards per game on the season. The Buckeyes are allowing 24.6 points and 398.6 yards per games on the year. Ohio State did have a strong recent performance at Michigan State and defeated the Spartans by a final score of 26-6. However, in their other 3 games since mid-October, the Buckeyes have allowed 43.7 points per game and 508 yards per game. The opponents for those games were Maryland, Nebraska, and Purdue. NONE of those three teams have managed a winning record this season. Now the Buckeyes host a Michigan team that has won 10 straight games since their season opening loss to Notre Dame. Also, in that season-opening loss the Wolverines did outgain the Fighting Irish. Of course ND is now 11-0 on the season entering today's action. In other words, Michigan has impressed all season long. The Wolverines have gone 10-0 SU their last 10 and allowed just 12.5 points per game. during the win streak. Michigan has scored at least 31 points in 8 of those 10 games. The Wolverines are 4-0 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. Ohio State is mired in a 1-6 ATS skid. 8* Michigan

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #134 Friday 10* Top Play South Florida Bulls (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 4:15 ET - South Florida started the season 7-0 but has now lost 4 straight games. Certainly the Bulls were over-rated earlier this season. However, they are now at home catching 14.5 points (as of early Friday morning) in this rivalry game with Central Florida and they are catching the Knights at the perfect time. That is because UCF is off a huge win over Cincinnati last week. That game was expected to be a war (Knights at home and favored by just 7) and yet Central Florida won easily. It is off that type of game (with so much anticipation leading into it) that a team can end up struggling in the very next game. I do expect UCF to get the win here but by just a single score! South Florida is 8-2 (80%) ATS when they are facing a team with a winning record that is off a SU win by a double digit margin. Of course that system fits here for the Bulls and that was truly a massive victory for UCF last week. Long-term USF is on an 8-4 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Bulls are 3-0 ATS as an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points and 2 of the 3 wins were outright upsets! Don't be surprised if USF gives Central Florida all they can handle in this one and it goes down to the wire. 10* SOUTH FLORIDA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #113 Thursday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 7:30 ET - As a general rule, it is a good idea to at least take a look at the underdog in rivalry games. That's because rivalry games have a bit of an "anything can happen" theme and also because they tend to play out "tighter" than many other games with less blowouts. However, just as with anything "typical" there are exceptions and this is one of them. Last year the Rebels upset the Bulldogs at Mississippi State and this is a legitimate revenge situation and the situation is absolutely perfect to back the revenging team. Why? Because the Bulldogs are so much better than the Rebels this season! Ole Miss is on an 0-4 SU run. Also, the Rebels have gone 0-7 ATS in SEC games this season! Mississippi is allowing nearly 500 yards per game this season! Conversely, Mississippi State's fantastic defense has allowed just 12.8 points per game and only 275.6 yards per game. The Bulldogs defense gave up just 24 points when they faced Alabama while the Rebels defense game up 62 points when they faced the Crimson Tide! Mississippi State has allowed 13 points or less in 8 of 11 games this season. Ole Miss has allowed at least 31 points in 5 straight games! The Rebels are allowing 36.3 points this season. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS as a favorite this season while Mississippi is 0-5 ATS as an underdog this season. After losing QB Fitzgerald to injury in last season's game against the Rebels and eventually losing the game too (by 3 as a double digit favorite) it is payback time in 2018's meeting! 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #102 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - The Broncos have a number of situational edges here. The Huskies already have clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game so they really have nothing to play for there. The Broncos, though they do have 6 wins to have already clinched bowl eligibility, would certainly like to improve their bowl possibilities. Also, it is Western Michigan that is playing with revenge here as they lost last year's game by 4 points at Northern Illinois. Though the Broncos have lost 3 straight games they didn't play as bad in the two ugly losses as what the final scores from those games show. Additionally, in last week's 1 point loss to Ball State, Western Michigan actually outgained the Cardinals by about 200 yards. Also, the Huskies are averaging just 308 yards per game on the road this season and it will be tough for them to get much of a margin in this game (if they even do prevail) as, other than a big win at Akron, Northern Illinois has averaged just 16.6 points per game in their other 5 road games. The home team in this series has won 4 of the last 5 games SU in this series and the Broncos are catching about 6 points in this one. The Huskies are on a 3-7 ATS run as a favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. This is an "ugly home dog" play but this is the kind of late season situation that gets the cash more often than not. I expect an upset with the Broncos but will grab the extra insurance with the generous points being offered. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #417 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - This is the classic situation where I like backing the underdog. The higher ranked team is at home and is laying (in many spots) less than a field goal. Also, the team that is ranked higher is also off a big road win. This is the type of situation where many are enticed to simply lay the small number with the home team when the reality is there is good reason the line is so low. I expect a lot of points to be scored in this game and I expect that to favor Iowa State. The Cyclones come into this game extremely confident with wins in 5 straight games and averaging 35 points per game during this winning streak. It is no coincidence that this 5-game run has come with Brock Purdy at QB. The Iowa State quarterback has been red hot and I look for him to take advantage of a struggling UT defense today. The Longhorns are banged up in the secondary and, since their bye week on October 20th, the Horns have had to play 3 straight tough offenses. This wears a defense down as Texas has tried to stop Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Texas Tech the past 3 weeks. The Longhorns, though the beat the Red Raiders last week, certainly have struggled to get stops! Texas has allowed 38 points per game their last 3 games and over 500 yards of offense in 4 of their last 5 games including each of these last 3. The Horns are beat up and road-weary as this will be just their 3rd home game since blasting TCU nearly two months ago! Iowa State has lost both match-ups with Texas since Matt Campbell took over as head coach. This game today has "payback" written all over it as the Cyclones are surging! The Longhorns, though they won in this role last week, are still an ugly 2-11 ATS when they are off a game in which they scored more than 35 points and are now facing a team playing with revenge. Like I said, UT got the job done in that role last week but this is rare for them and, this week, Iowa State gets their revenge! The Cyclones are on a 13-3 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record under coach Campbell and they get the job done again here. 10* IOWA STATE

Contrarian Crusher Side - Rickenbach CFB Game #400 Saturday 8* Florida State Seminoles (+) vs Boston College Eagles @ 3:30 ET - When the lines first game out this one had to be a head-scratcher in most peoples books. Boston College is a ranked team and their loss to Clemson snapped a stretch that had seen the Eagles win 3 straight games SU and 4 in a row ATS. As for the Seminoles they've lost 3 straight games by a combined score of 148 to 51. That is an average losing margin of 32.3 points per game and yet this line opened up at nearly a pick'em! If there ever was a perfect play to fit into my contrarian system. This is it! Florida State is the type of team that is ultra-talented but yet has moments where they frustrate the hell out of their backers. The fact is that this line was set this way for a reason and I am grabbing the Noles as they catch the Eagles flat after that huge night game at home last week versus Clemson and with FSU having played better statistically than what the recent final scores would indicate. Long-term, in games with a line between +3 and -3, the Seminoles are on a 23-10 ATS run. Look for the Eagles to drop to 4-8 SU in their last dozen games played on grass. 8* FLORIDA STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #364 Saturday 8* Colorado Buffaloes (+) vs Utah Utes @ 1:30 ET - This is a tough spot for the Utes. Utah is off a big win versus Oregon and has another big home game with BYU on deck. The Buffaloes have a couple advantages here. Not only do they catch the Utes in a tricky scheduling spot, they are also at home and it is likely to be snowing during this game. Poor weather conditions generally tend to help the underdog and I like the fact we can get the Buffaloes at more than a TD in some spots as of early gameday morning. Colorado is 5-2 ATS in this series. Also, the Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS their last 6 when off an ATS loss by a double digit margin in their prior game. When the Utes are off a SU win which they also covered ATS, and are facing a team off B2B SU losses, Utah has gone 1-6 ATS. Combined edges of 16-4 / 80% ATS here are in favor of the Buffaloes and I believe Mother Nature favors the home team in this one too as a sizable home dog. Look for the Buffaloes to get the job done in their home finale. 8* COLORADO

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - This line has gone from a pick'em to Ohio becoming nearly a field goal favorite in this one. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move here and, as always, it is certainly not without reason! This Buffalo team is on a mission. Bulls head coach Lance Leipold is in his 4th year at Buffalo and the Bulls have yet to reach the post-season. Keep in mind this is the same Leipold who won FIVE Division III national championships at Wisconsin-Whitewater. That said, it is no surprise to me that Buffalo is having their best season yet under Leipold. That fact is that even if the Bulls lose this game they can still clinch the MAC East even if Ohio wins again next week. Buffalo could do that by virtue of defeating a bad Bowling Green team next week. However, the Bulls don't want to go that route. They want to clinch this right here right now on the Bobcats own field. Keep in mind Buffalo, under Leipold, has won both home match-ups with the Bobcats but they lost the lone meeting at Ohio University by 24 points in 2016. They must have been dominated, right? Actually the Bulls outgained Ohio in that game but were done in by turnovers. Buffalo atones for that road loss with a road win here. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in MAC games this season and 4-0 ATS in road games on the year. They are also the healthier team entering this match-up. Buffalo also has an extra day of rest compared to Ohio heading into this one. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS when off a game against Kent State. Also, though some would argue these teams schedules are roughly equal this season in terms of strength, the numbers tell a different story. For the 2nd straight year the Bobcats schedule included just 2 teams that had a winning record last season. As for the Bulls, their schedule included 5 teams that had a winning record last season. I like having the points here as the Bulls "mission" under Leipold continues! 10* BUFFALO

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #301 Tuesday 8* Western Michigan Broncos (-) @ Ball State Cardinals @ 6 ET - Both teams have been struggling but the Broncos are still the superior team and will respond after getting blown out in back to back games. In fact, Western Michigan is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 5 times they've entered a weekday game off B2B SU losses. The Broncos are also a fantastic 10-2 ATS as road favorites of more than 6 points when facing a team with a losing record! Ball State is an ugly 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Western Michigan. In fact the Broncos have blown out the Cardinals by a combined score of 161-30 in the last 3 meetings! I am well aware that EACH of these teams has issues at the QB position but at least Broncos QB Kaleb Eleby had a solid effort when he first replaced the injured Jon Wassink 2 games back. As for Ball State QB Drew Plitt, he has come in place of the injured Riley Neal but turnovers were a major issue in his first game. Another key factor here is that, with the QB situation for each team, the running game carries extra importance. The Broncos run defense had been solid for many consecutive weeks prior to the last two weeks. Though Western Michigan's run D struggled in its past two games they certainly didn't struggle as much as the Cardinals did. Ball State allowed an average of 307.5 rushing yards per game the past two games! Also, in terms of rushing yardage on offense, the Broncos have averaged 251 yards per game on the ground in their last 4 road contests! The Cards have gained more than 160 on the ground just once in their last seven games. Ball State is on a long-term 6-16 ATS run in conference games and with this line dropping to a 7 as of Tuesday evening, it is "go time" with the Broncos! 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #122 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston College Eagles (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - I have a ton of respect for Clemson. The Tigers are a tremendous football team. However, they have enjoyed a string of blowout wins now that has resulted in an inflated line in a situation that truly is likely to be one of their toughest games, from a situational standpoint, of this season. A night game in mid-November at Boston College means temperatures likely starting out in the upper 30s and possibly falling to near freezing as well as some extra wind chill with some pretty stiff winds blowing through Chestnut Hill as well. The point is that this is certainly not typical weather for Clemson to deal with. Now certainly this doesn't stop Clemson dead in their tracks. They're very talented, very fast, and very skilled. The point is that the Tigers will score some points. But for them to go to Boston College and blast the Eagles by a 3 touchdown margin is something I don't see happening. The Eagles have a solid defense that has also shown a lot of "bend but don't break" this season. BC is allowing just 20.8 points per game their last 4 games. Also, the Eagles are solid in the trenches on both sides of the ball. This includes an offensive line that returned all 5 starters from last season and is loaded with experience. The Eagles have averaged over 500 yards of offense per game at home this season. Granted the Clemson defense is tough so there will be many challenges in this game for the BC offense but they have the veterans and the physicality to get some push against this tough Tigers defense. Boston College is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record and that includes 3-0 ATS this season. Long-term the Eagles are 3-1 ATS as a home dog in a range of 17.5 to 21 points. They lost all 4 of those games SU but the point is they covered all but 1 and I love the value here on a cold night at Chestnut Hill with a very physical team capable of winning battles in the trenches. Grab the big points! 10* BOSTON COLLEGE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #161 Saturday 8* Oregon Ducks (+) @ Utah Utes @ 5:30 ET - This is a contrarian play because certainly, on the surface, it would appear that Utah is a great play in this spot. After all, the Utes are at home, they're playing with revenge, and they're laying a small number of points. Upon closer inspection though you'll see why I am going contrarian here. Even thought the Utes are off a loss and the Ducks are off a win (another reason that would normally support backing Utah) the value is with the road dog in this match-up. The Utes are going to be without RB Zack Moss for this game and QB Tyler Huntley has been lost for the season. The RB issue is significant but the QB issue is very concerning as the Utes have inexperience at that position behind Huntley. In terms of technical data, Utah is a long-term 33-49 ATS in games where they are favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Also, the Ducks have won 8 of the last 11 meetings between these teams and that includes 3 of the last 4 at Utah. With the Utes having redshirt freshman Kelley at QB and the visitor having covered 4 of the last 5 in this series, I like having the points with a Ducks team poised for another road win at Utah. 8* OREGON

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #181 Saturday 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) @ Alabama Crimson Tide @ 3:30 ET - Alabama, of course, is the best team in CFB and they dominated LSU more than anyone really expected. However, that huge win last week over the Tigers does leave the Crimson Tide in, arguably, their biggest flat spot of the season. Last week's game was "The Game" where, if Bama was going to get upset this season, that was going to be it. With that being said, and the fact that it did not happen and the Tide rolled, I see this week's game being much more challenging than many expect. Alabama is breathing a sigh of relief for winning at LSU last week but this Bulldogs defense is not going to be fun to deal with. Mississippi State has played a strength of schedule very comparable to that of Alabama's and the Bulldogs numbers on defense are very bit as good of those of the Tide. Now, for certain, the key edge that Alabama does have here is their passing game. However, the Bulldogs pass defense has allowed just 177 passing yards per game this season in SEC action. I am, of course, NOT saying that Mississippi State is going to shutdown the powerful Alabama offense. But the fact is I do feel strongly that is going to be tough for the Crimson Tide to build a huge margin in this game and will gladly take advantage of the big number posted on this game. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS their last 8 as a double digit dog. Alabama is on a 4-7 ATS run in home games. I'll grab the big points. 8* MISSISSIPPI STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #111 Friday 8* Louisville Cardinals (+) @ Syracuse Orange @ 7 ET - This is the point in the season where a game like this means PLENTY to a team that is 2-7 on the season. If this game was on a Saturday afternoon it would not mean so much but Louisville knows they are THE GAME in early action Friday and the college football world will be tuned in for this one as it involves a ranked Syracuse team. Of course the Cardinals have no shot at bowl eligibility and so a game like this is a rare opportunity to do something positive late in the season. We all saw what happened last night with Wake Forest upsetting the Wolfpack at NC State and that line was nearly identical to this line. Now, of course, the Demon Deacons needed a win to help in their quest for bowl eligibility but, seriously, how many people really expected Wake Forest to win outright as a nearly 20 point dog? The point being that late season games like this (especially on a weeknight) can be dangerous for large favorites. I expect that to be the case again here. While I don't expect Louisville to get a massive upset, I do fully expect them to stay inside this massive number. We're simply getting some extra line value here because everyone saw the Cards get destroyed by Clemson Saturday but the Tigers, of course, are one of the top teams in the nation. Syracuse, for as strong as their offense certainly is, definitely has a sub-par defense. The Orange are allowing nearly as many yards per game as the Cardinals are per game this season! Louisville, in a rare big dog role, is a long-term 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 17.5 to 21 points. Syracuse is 1-6 ATS their last 7 games against teams with a losing record and that includes 0-3 ATS this season! Overall, the Orange have been outgained over their last 5 games and they were outgained in last week's 17 point win over Wake Forest. In other words, it was a bit of a "phony final" and is also helping to give us line value here. Additionally, Syracuse was only 2-2 SU in their 4 prior games and the two wins came by a TOTAL of just 13 points. The point is that the Orange are being severely over-valued here and I am happy to grab the big dog value with a team looking to atone for last week's horrible performance where they were embarrassed by one of the best teams in the country. 8* LOUISVILLE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #103 Wednesday 8* Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Bobcats, at least in early wagering through Tuesday evening, are the popular choice. Of course this makes sense as Ohio University has rolled 3 straight teams heading into this game and also the Bobcats have had the upper hand in this series going 11-2 in the last 13 meetings. However, in the Redhawks are a very dangerous home underdog here. This is a rivalry game and means a lot to Miami-Ohio even though they have a sub-par record on the season. The Redhawks want this game badly and Ohio U is truly in a classic lookahead spot here as the Bobcats have a huge game on deck against Buffalo. The Bulls entered Tuesday night's game versus Kent with a 5-0 record and, of course, it is hard for the Bobcats not to get caught looking ahead. For the Redhawks their full focus is certainly here and I also like the fact that Miami-Ohio has played the tougher schedule this season in terms of comparing these two teams. While it is true that Ohio U has held their last 3 opponents each to just 14 points, the Redhawks have averaged 37 points per game their last 6 games and have not been held below 30 in any of those games. The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS this season when coming off a conference game and 12-6 ATS the last 2+ seasons as an underdog. Miami-Ohio is 15-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points.  The Redhawks also have the rest edge here as they played last week on Tuesday while the Bobcats played on Thursday. I expect an upset but will grab the "insurance" with the FG + the hook in this one. 8* MIAMI-OHIO

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #101 Tuesday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes (+) @ Buffalo Bulls @ 7:30 ET - When you are a huge underdog, you welcome all the help that you can get from Mother Nature. In this case, this game at Buffalo is offering plenty of help based on the weather forecast. The Bulls, as you would expect for a MAC team, play in a rather small home venue. That means that when the winds are whipping through there it can create havoc for the passing and kicking game. Winds are expected to be in the 25 to 35 mph range on Tuesday night in Amherst in the Buffalo area. I love the big dog in a spot like this catching more than 3 TDs. The Golden Flashes have been playing a little better in recent weeks. One of their biggest weaknesses on the season is pass defense but, again, based on the strong winds forecast for Tuesday night, Buffalo is likely to keep the ball on the ground a lot. In comparing these two teams, they are nearly equal in terms of the ground game both on offense and defense. The big edge the Bulls would have is the passing game but, again, that is going to be at least somewhat (if not significantly) impacted by the weather in this one. The Golden Flashes have played better in recent weeks even though they've had a road-heavy schedule (they finish the season with two home games). Kent State is only 1-3 SU their last 4 games but two of those three losses came by just a single point. Another key here is that Buffalo is in a sandwich spot. The two teams closest to the Bulls in the MAC East standings are Miami-Ohio and Ohio U. With Buffalo off a key win over the Redhawks last Tuesday and having a huge game on deck with the Bobcats next Wednesday, this is a "tricky" scheduling spot for the Bulls. The Golden Flashes are playing hard for head coach Sean Lewis. At the age of 31 he is the youngest head coach in the nation and has brought a lot of positive energy to the program and they are heading in the right direction despite their unimpressive W-L record. Another key to the value here is that Bulls linebacker (2nd in the NATION in tackles last season) Khalil Hodge is out for the 1st half of this game due to a targeting suspension. Look for the Golden Flashes to keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 10* KENT STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #356 Saturday 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:15 ET - The Fighting Irish are 8-0 SU on the season but are 3-4 ATS their last 7 and truly are over-priced here. Notre Dame is known for sliding at this point in the season and this certainly could be "upset week" for them as they are just 3-5 SU (and 1-7 ATS!) the past two Novembers. Conversely, the Wildcats are in their most relished role. As an underdog, Northwestern is now 10-3 ATS their last 13 and that includes 4-0 this season! 3 of the 4 this season were outright upset wins! The Wildcats are also a long-term 11-3 ATS as home dog of 7.5 to 10 points and 9 of those 11 wins were outright upsets! Northwestern also is known for staying hot once they get hot! The Cats enter this game having won 4 straight and they are 9-1 SU and (8-2 ATS!) their last 10 when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Ever since losing RB Jeremy Larkin for the season (career ended) this Wildcats team has bonded tremendously. They lost (but covered) their first game without him in a hard-fought 3-point loss to mighty Michigan and they've since won 4 straight games! Of course there will be plenty of Notre Dame fans here but certainly it still is not the same as the Wildcats having to face the Fighting Irish in South Bend. That said, I also like the fact that we've got some more technical data supporting this play. ND is 3-10 ATS the game after facing Navy. Notre Dame is also just 1-5 ATS when on the road after scoring more than 35 points and now facing a team that is playing with revenge. The Irish are also on an 0-5 ATS run as a favorite of more than 6 points against a Big Ten team! 10* NORTHWESTERN

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #379 Saturday CFB 8* Utah Utes (-) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 4 ET - Utah just wrapped up a dominating month of October as they won all 4 games both SU and ATS. Now the Utes eye revenge at Arizona State. Last year, the Sun Devils knocked off the Utes in Salt Lake City and it is time for payback here. The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams by a margin of 20 points or more and I am forecasting another road rout here. The Utes are catching ASU at the perfect time to get a big road win. The Sun Devils are off a revenging win over a USC team that was quite banged up heading into that one. Give ASU credit nonetheless but lets not forget that the Sun Devils entered  that game having lost 4 of their last 5 games. All 4 losses came by 7 points apiece. Coincidentally, 7 is the exact line on this game in most places as of Friday afternoon but I certainly am not posting this expecting a push. The Utes won their 4 games in October by an average margin of 24 points per game. In comparing these teams the Utes have a large edge on defense. Utah is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on grass. Also, the Utes are 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they've entered a game on SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Arizona State is 3-6 ATS (and 2-7 SU!) when off a win versus a Pac-12 foe. The Sun Devils are a long-term 10-17 ATS in home games with a posted total between 52.5 and 56 points. Grabbing a red hot road team that is running the ball extremely well and also has the vastly superior defense and that is also seeking revenge is absolutely the way to go here. 8* UTAH

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #351 Saturday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) @ Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - The Longhorns are off a loss at Oklahoma State. I won't be surprised to see Texas come out flat in this one after "unbeaten letdown" with the loss to the Cowboys being their first Big 12 loss of the season. It was no fluke as the Horns were outgained by 100 yards by OSU. Also, note that Texas was outgained in their wins over TCU and Oklahoma as well. Simply put, I feel that the Longhorns are a bit over-rated right now. As for West Virginia, they are truly flying "under the radar" right now as the Mountaineers are 6-1 SU on the season and, other than one embarrassing effort at Iowa State (the lone loss), they've played extremely well. The Mountaineers average margin of victory is 26.3 points per win in their 6 victories. West Virginia is 7-3 SU (and 8-2 ATS) as a road dog of 3 points or less their last ten! Look for a typical November fade from the Longhorns here (2-6 ATS last 8 in November) after last week's loss at Oklahoma State sets the tone for typical late season disappointment for the Horns. Also, Texas is 1-5 ATS their last 6 as a favorite and 2-5 ATS in home games with a total posted between 56.5 and 63 points. Look for the road team to improve to 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams. Will Grier and the Mountaineers offense will prove to be too much here. 8* WEST VIRGINIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #315 Friday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - Yes, Virginia has been red hot and many are looking to ride the Cavaliers here. This is especially true as Pittsburgh, despite an ultra-impressive performance on offense (and a win), gave up a ton of yardage last week. The facts that matter the most here are the Panthers are a very physical football team and while I greatly respect Cavs coach Bronco Mendenhall, he and the Cavaliers have lost to Pitt in each of his first two seasons. Coming into this season Virginia was pegged by most prognosticators to finish dead last in the Coastal Division of the ACC. Now both the Cavs and the Panthers have just 1 ACC loss heading into this battle. The Cavaliers are also ranked! However, I fully believe this is a case of a little too much too respect too soon for the Cavaliers. I am calling for the upset here but, of course, I am grabbing the points. Currently this line is at 7.5 as of early gameday morning and that is a great value. The Cavs, for all their accolades, actually have only averaged 346 yards per game their last 4 games. The Panthers, on the other hand, have averaged 479 yards of offense per game in their last 3 ACC games! Pitt is loaded with confidence after their huge performance at Duke and they also have confidence at Virginia due to recent success in this match-up. Under head coach Pat Narduzzi, the Panthers have gone 11-6 ATS in their last 17 as a road dog. Virginia is on a 2-6 ATS run in November games and is a long-term 4-7 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. The Panthers are 10-3 ATS their last 13 games against teams with a winning record and get the job done again here. 10* PITTSBURGH

All Treat No Trick Best Bet - Rickenbach CFB Game #306 Wednesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (-) vs Ball State Cardinals @ 7:30 ET - Ball State has been ravaged with injuries and now they are forced to go with Drew Plitt at QB because Riley Neal has been downgraded to out for this game. The Cardinals also have injury issues at RB and WR. Not only that, the Cards have been hurt by injuries on the offensive line and on defense too. All the way around this is not a good spot for Ball State. As for Toledo, QB Mitchell Guadagni left the Rockets most recent game with a shoulder injury. However, even if he did not play in tonight's game, back-up QB Eli Peters has played plenty this season (including last week) and he has played well. Peters plays with confidence too and, at home, versus an over-matched Cardinals team, the Rockets can essentially "name the score" in this one. I look for them to get a huge lead and then, though they will be in a certain respect "coasting to victory" I still them piling up points. Even when Toledo turns to their ground game to grind out clock, they are likely to break off big runs. The Rockets have run for 229 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Cards defense has allowed 227 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games and that includes 411 rushing yards in their most recent game. Though I generally don't lay big numbers, this is a rare case where everything does point to a blowout and Ball State, without their top QB (and other skill position guys) just doesn't have a lot of "backdoor cover" potential here. Look for the Cardinals to drop to 2-10 (SU and ATS) in October games! Note that the Rockets are 10-0 / 100% PERFECT ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 8 points and coming off a win that was by a double digit margin both SU and ATS. That system fits here as they blasted Western Michigan last week by 27 points as an underdog! There is another perfect system here too as Ball State is 0-9 ATS when they are playing with revenge against a team that is off a SU win by a double digit margin in their prior game. That means this spot is a combined 19-0 / 100% PERFECT! Lay the points! 10* TOLEDO

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #302 Tuesday CFB 10* Buffalo Bulls (-) vs Miami-OH Redhawks @ 8 ET - First off, lets talk about the current injury report here. The Bulls have no one listed while the 3 guys for the Redhawks all quite important and all 3 are seniors. Of course WR James Gardner has been out since earlier this season but that was a crushing blow as he was the leader of the receiving group. The other two players are on defense and are both listed as questionable for this week. Liinebacker Junior McMullen is the middle linebacker and certainly a crucial piece of the LB corps. The defensive back is Deondre Daniels and he was the top returning cornerback. Now even without all this I still love Buffalo here. They had won 4 straight in this series but now have lost back to back games to Miami-Ohio (Bulls were down to 3rd string QB in last year's meeting). So this is a double-revenge situation and Buffalo is at home and they are laying a TD. Good value here. The Bulls are 7-1 this season and Miami-OH is just 3-5. Granted the Redhawks have played better since MAC play began but the Bulls have been playing even better (on both sides of the ball) and have the home field edge and high motivation factor here. In terms of technical support, the Redhawks are on a 1-3 ATS run in Tuesday games while the Bulls are on a 6-3 ATS run in Tuesday games. Buffalo is also 4-1 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points and 6-1 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. Also, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS when they are off B2B SU wins and facing an opponent off a SU loss. Buffalo is also 7-1 ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 2 points and are playing with revenge! 10* BUFFALO

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #166 Saturday 10* Top Play California Golden Bears (+) vs Washington Huskies @ 6:30 ET - Simply too many points here. You know California head coach Justin Wilcox (formerly a defensive coordinator at Washington in 2012-13) wants this game badly. The Huskies are having a solid season in Pac-12 action while Cal has been struggling but the Golden Bears can make a statement right here right now by getting revenge for beatdowns taken at the hands of Washington each of the past two seasons. This year's defense is much improved and I don't see the Huskies enjoying the success they have in past match-ups. Coach Wilcox is doing a great job with the D this season and California is allowing 24 points per game on average on the season and has held all but 2 of 7 opponents to 24 points or less this season. The Huskies have been held to 27 points or less in 5 of their 7 games against FBS foes this season and Washington has not scored more than 35 points against an FBS school this season. Based on Cal's improvements on D and the fact that the Huskies O has not been a powerhouse, I expect Washington to struggle just to win this game let alone cover the big spread. The Huskies only big road win (@ Utah by 14) was fueled by turnovers. Washington's other road games included a win by 7 and a loss at Oregon. Look for a tight one here as the Golden Bears struggles this season have been fueled by turnovers but they are off a game at Oregon State where they played a complete game on both sides of the ball. Look for that huge win over the Beavers to provide the confidence boost this team needed and the defense, solid, is already there. Now with the offense playing a complete game and building off last week's strong effort, the Bears are a dangerous home dog in this spot. In fact, the Golden Bears are 12-1 ATS when they are double digit dog and are coming off a SU win that was also an ATS cover. The system fits here and this is a superb value spot. 10* CALIFORNIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #185 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - Being a contrarian has been a key to my long-term success in this industry and, of course, most of the betting market will be looking hard at Penn State here laying less than a touchdown which would seem like a bargain since they are on their home field. I feel strongly that Iowa is going to prove to be the right side of this physical Big Ten match-up. In fact the physical nature is what I feel strongly favors the Hawkeyes here as the Nittany Lions have gotten soft far too often including the game they blew against Ohio State earlier this season. That was inexcusable and says a lot about this Nittany Lions team which has since lost as a double digit favorite versus Michigan State and barely got by Indiana last week! PSU was outgained by the Spartans and then followed that up by getting outgained by over 100 yards by the Hoosiers! The team, plain and simple, is just not clicking now as the loss to the Buckeyes really seemed to take the wind out of their sails for this season. Now they face a revenge-minded Iowa team that has the vastly superior defense. The Hawkeyes are allowing just 14 points and only 258 yards per game. The Nittany Lions have allowed at least 21 points in 4 straight games while Iowa has held 5 of 7 opponents to just 16 points or less! Upset alert here so I certainly am happy to grab the available points in this one. 8* IOWA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #131 Friday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+) @ Florida Atlantic Owls @ 6:30 ET - The Owls, in essence, have lost their leader on each side of the ball. Florida Atlantic's LB Azeez Al-Shaair was the Defensive Player of the Year for Conference USA and he is out for the year with a torn ACL. Owls QB Chris Robison is questionable for this game with an ankle injury but he was actually benched in Florida Atlantic's 31-7 loss at Marshall last week which was also the first Owls game without Al-Shaair. The point is that even if Robison was healthy there is already confidence lost in him due to poor play. The Owls are facing a Louisiana Tech team that is hell bent on revenge here. Last season the Bulldogs got embarrassed at home 48-23 by Florida Atlantic even though Louisiana Tech outgained them 512 to 415. You read that right...the Bulldogs outgained the Owls by nearly 100 yards but lost by 25 points on the scoreboard. Indeed it is payback time tonight and, with Florida Atlantic having issues with arguably the most important player on each side of the ball, this one should be a road rout for Louisiana Tech and I am happy to grab the points. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and also 7-1 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Owls are 2-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points and Florida Atlantic is also 1-8 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The line has been moving toward the Owls and in true contrarian fashion I am going the other way and grabbing the Bulldogs! 10* LOUISIANA TECH

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Game #114 Thursday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 7 ET - The Bears, as a big dog here, could have used some help from mother nature to help limit the potent West Virginia offense. Had this game been Friday night instead of Thursday night they would likely get it as rain is expected. However, Thursday night is expected to have spectacular weather conditions with no rain and light winds and this angry Mountaineers teams won't hesitate to run up the score on Baylor. West Virginia is coming off their first loss of the season, a dismal loss at Iowa State two weeks ago. The Mountaineers have been fired up to get back on the field but had to wait an extra week because of their bye week. Don't be surprised if West Virginia looks like they've been shot out of a cannon when this game gets going. They are fired up and a primetime weeknight game is going to have Morgantown rocking tonight! The Bears are 3-3 this season but the 3 wins were against Abilene Christian, UTSA, and Kansas State. Every time that Baylor has faced tougher competition they've lost. The 3 losses have come by an average of 17.3 points per game and the Mountaineers 5 wins this season have come by an average margin of 22.8 points per game. In fact, all except a road win have come by at least a 16 point margin. With this line dropping down from 14 to 13.5 and, considering the highly motivated situation for the Mountaineers, I won't hesitate to go to my top play rating for this one. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in road games with a total between 63.5 and 70 points. The Mountaineers improve to 4-1 ATS in games played on turf this season. 10* WEST VIRGINIA

Rare Tuesday CFB Top Play - Rickenbach CFB Game #101 Tuesday 10* Top Play Troy Trojans (-) @ South Alabama Jaguars @ 8 ET - The Trojans lost starting QB Kaleb Barker for the season (ACL) but Sawyer Smith had already had some experience this season and had performed quite well. The fact that he had some struggles in his first start, on the road at Liberty, is actually leading to some line value here. Look for Smith to perform much better after getting that road start out of the way and he has had extra time to prepare since Troy is off a bye. It certainly will help that Smith and the powerful Trojans are going up against a weak defense. The Jaguars defense ranks in the BOTTOM 20 out of all 130 teams in FBS for defensive efficiency. Overall, South Alabama has allowed 446 yards per game this season. The Jags run defense is particularly poor and the Trojans powerful ground game can take advantage. Troy is on a 6-0 ATS run in Tuesday games. The Trojans enter this game having allowed just 19.7 points per game their last 6 games. South Alabama enters this game off a rare big win and previously had allowed an average of 47 points per game in their first 6 games this season. The Jaguars are on a 5-13 ATS run in conference action and will prove to be outclassed again by the class of the conference as the Trojans get revenge for last year's loss. Last year the Jags caught Troy after their big upset of LSU. South Alabama is not so lucky this season in terms of the situational set-up and the Trojans roll big here! Lay the big points even though they are on the road. 10* TROY

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #368 Saturday 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks (+) @ Washington State Cougars @ 7:30 ET - People will shy away from Oregon here since they're off the big win at Washington last week and it was a revenge game. However, those same people may have forgotten that the Ducks are on a mission right now thanks to a healthy Justin Herbert at QB and they have big-time revenge on their minds this week because they've been beaten badly by the Cougars each of the past two seasons! Look for Oregon to roll here as the Ducks, in my opinion, have faced tougher Pac-12 match-ups than Washington State has thus far. As a result, Oregon is the more battle-tested team in this match-up and their only loss this season (to Stanford) was truly a game the Ducks never should have lost. They've showed great resilience ever since then. I also like the fact that Washington State is 6-0 ATS this season so they're falling into public favor as a result and they're getting some extra shading in this match-up they really don't deserve. The Cougars luck at the betting window runs out this week in my opinion! The Cougars are 1-3 ATS off a bye week and 5-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or less points. Oregon is 46-23 in games with a line between +3 and -3. The Ducks are also 16-6 ATS in a road game with posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. 10* OREGON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #353 Saturday 8* UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (+) @ Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 3:30 ET - The Mountaineers are an amazing 5-0 ATS this season but that has them over-valued in this spot. Appalachian State is laying nearly 4 touchdowns here even though they're facing a UL-Lafayette team that has only struggled twice this season and those tough performances were against SEC teams. App St is a good team but they're certainly not on the level of SEC teams like the Mississippi State Bulldogs or Alabama Crimson Tide teams that beat the Ragin Cajuns. Note that in UL-Lafayette's other 4 games this season they are 3-1 and the lone loss came by just 2 points! The Ragin Cajuns have averaged 46.3 points per game in their 4 games that were against non-SEC competition. UL-Lafayette was beaten badly by App State the past two seasons but they've closed the gap this season and that has not been properly factored into this line because, right now, the betting markets are enamored with the 100% ATS Mountaineers. Appalachian State is a long-term 1-5 ATS as a favorite in a range of 21.5 to 31 points. The Ragin Cajuns are a long-term 6-3 ATS in games played in weeks 5 through 9 of a season. 8* UL LAFAYETTE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #383 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ Noon ET - The Sooners have averaged 48 points this season. So what's the problem in Norman? A defense that got scorched back to back weeks before their bye week. It culminated with a loss to Texas in that final game before the OU bye and that led to the firing of their defensive coordinator. The guy stepping in as in the interim, Ruffin McNeil, is a players coach and they are going to fight like hell for him on Saturday. Look for Oklahoma to put forth a huge effort on defense while the offense simply continues to roll. The Sooners are an offensive machine and TCU, now 3-3 on the season, is down some this year. The result is a road rout of huge proportions here. A little uncomfortable if you have to lay more than a TD here? Sure that is understandable but Oklahoma should win this game by at least 17 points as the Horned Frogs are averaging just 15.7 points per game their last 3 games. Texas Christian University is on a 2-16 ATS run in home games. Look for the Sooners to improve to 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with TCU. 8* OKLAHOMA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #304 Thursday 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (-) vs Georgia State Panthers @ 7:30 ET - At first glance this line looks a little on the high side. Of course you know what that means and long-time followers also know that I have had plenty of success through the years by being a contrarian. That is what I am doing here as I lay the big points but certainly it is not without good reason. The Panthers defense has been absolutely awful this season and the Red Wolves should roll. Arkansas State is 12-2 ATS as a favorite of less than 20 points when they are facing an opponent that is off a SU loss by a double digit margin. Also, the Red Wolves are on a 7-1 ATS run in October games and a 3-0 ATS run in Thursday games. Georgia State is on a 1-4-1 ATS run in SunBelt Conference games. Combined edges here are 26-4 (87%) in favor of a home blowout in this one. 8* ARKANSAS STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #176 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7 ET - The Mountaineers are a ranked team and an undefeated team and so when they opened up as a rather small favorite here of course the betting masses jumped all over them. This has led to even more value here with an Iowa State team that is much better than their 2-3 record indicates! The key to that value is that the Cyclones have played a much tougher schedule than West Virginia has so far this season. That is why West Virginia has been a double digit favorite in 4 of their 5 games this season while Iowa State has been an underdog in 4 of their 5 games and that includes being a double digit underdog each of the last 3 times the Cyclones were a dog. Iowa State enters this game with added confidence after the big win at Oklahoma State last week. While some may expect them to now fall flat at home, this is the Cyclones only home game in a span of 5 weeks as they've been on the road for back to back weeks plus they have a bye week on deck. That said, Iowa State is going to make the most of this opportunity to host a ranked and undefeated Big 12 foe! As for the Mountaineers, they also have a bye on deck but that situation can play out much different mentally when you are an undefeated team. West Virginia is likely already thinking about their bye and could look right past a Cyclones team they have enjoyed plenty of success against in recent meetings. The Mountaineers, in fact, are known for this is in recent seasons as they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 against teams with a losing record while the Cyclones are known for stepping up against tougher competition as they are 11-2 ATS their last 13 games against teams with a winning record! 10* IOWA STATE

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #184 Saturday 8* Memphis Tigers (+) vs Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Central Florida is ranked in the top 10 and is undefeated on the season. Of course the Golden Knights are getting plenty of attention in this spot as a result. However, 4-2 Memphis is playing this game with double revenge from last season as they lost in the regular season and in the conference championship game. Finally the Tigers get UCF in Memphis and I expect them to make the most of this opportunity. The Tigers statistically compare well to the Golden Knights and the home team has been the SU winner in each of the last 9 games Memphis has played (not including the bowl game of course). The Tigers are 16-2 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points when facing an opponent with a winning percentage greater than .750 on the year. Also, the visitor in this series is on an 0-5 ATS run. In other words, it is a great time to fade Central Florida in this one as the angles are 21-2 ATS in favor of the Tigers in the home dog role here. 8* MEMPHIS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #193 Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ Noon ET - After the home loss to Iowa State, Oklahoma State will be in full-on bounce-back mode at Kansas State Saturday. The Cowboys also have the add motivation of revenge here as they suffered an outright upset loss as a home favorite of nearly 3 TDs in their game versus the Wildcats in Stillwater last year. Suffice to say it is now payback time! Kansas State has lost 3 straight games and their only two SU wins this season came when they were favorites in the 3 TD range. The Cowboys are 8-1-1 ATS when they are playing with revenge and facing a team that has a losing record on the season. Kansas State has been a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7.5 points just twice in recent seasons but they lost both games and were blown out by an average margin of 12.5 points per game in those two contests. I expect another home loss by double digits here as the Cowboys get revenge. OSU is averaging 44 points per game this season while Kansas State is averaging exactly half as much. Indeed the Wildcats are averaging only 22 points per game. The Cats offense simply won't be able to keep up with the 'Boys in this one! 8* OKLAHOMA STATE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #110 Friday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - From mid-September to late-October, this is the only home game for Tulsa. The fact that they are getting to host a conference foe that is currently a Top 25 team and it is a weeknight game with the ESPN cameras rolling just adds to the factor that the Golden Hurricane are going to be sky high for this game. Yes Tulsa's record looks bad but they've played a much tougher schedule than South Florida has and the Golden Hurricane have been done in by turnovers. Each of the last two games for Tulsa have been "phony finals" where the final score has not been commensurate with the yardage for the game. Also, the Golden Hurricane lost by just 7 points at Texas earlier this season. As for the Bulls, they won by 16 at UMass last week but allowed nearly 500 yards to the Minutemen. 5 turnovers is what led to the big win for South Florida. Their two prior wins were both by 7 points or less and those were teams they were favored to beat by 2 or 3 TDs. In other words, the Bulls are coming into this game over-valued while the Golden Hurricane are certainly under-valued at this point in the season. Look for redshirt freshman Seth Boomer to play much better in his 2nd start at home after having to play on the road last week. Tulsa was a 17 point dog at Houston in that game and led the game outright by 9 points in the 4th quarter before things came unraveled due to turnovers. This Golden Hurricane team is so hungry and has proven they can hang with teams like Houston and Texas on the road. In other words, facing USF at home is certainly not going to be as tough as a task as those games were and Tulsa covered both of those games. The Golden Hurricane are 8-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. South Florida is 2-6 ATS in a road game with a posted total in the range of 56.5 to 63 points. 10* TULSA

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #105 Thursday 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 7:30 ET - Though QB Alan Bowman is now listed as doubtful for this game for Texas Tech, the Red Raiders are expected to have McLane Carter available as well as Jeff Duffey. The latter is very athletic and could give the TCU defense some trouble with his running ability. Keep in mind, the Red Raiders have been piling up yardage (as usual) this season no matter whom has been under center. Texas Tech enters this game having averaged 48.4 points and 591.4 yards per game on the year! While the Horned Frogs have a solid defense, it is certainly not as strong as we've seen in years past with TCU. The Red Raiders are getting as much as 7.5 here as of early game day morning and Texas Tech is seeking revenge for a 27-3 loss at home in Lubbock last season! Note that the Red Raiders did outgain the Horned Frogs in that one so the final score is truly not commensurate with the way the game played out. Also, Texas Tech won their most recent to TCU. Additionally, while the Red Raiders have perennially bad Kansas on deck, the Horned Frogs might be peeking ahead to their huge game against Oklahoma coming up next week. The Red Raiders are 6-3 their last 9 as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. The Horned Frogs are on an ugly 2-14 ATS run in home games! 8* TEXAS TECH

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #102 Tuesday 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8 ET - The Mountaineers look very impressive this season but other than their season opener versus Penn State, Appalachian State has faced a very weak schedule. The Red Wolves had to face Alabama, the best team in the nation, but also have faced tougher teams than the Mountaineers in their other games. That said, the betting markets are enamored with Appalachian State here because they have a balanced offense, have put up a ton of points this season, and the Mountaineers have the better record. However, strength of schedule is super important in analyzing college football and with Appalachian State climbing all the way up to a 10 point favorite the value is with the home dog in a big way here. Consider that the Red Wolves, other than versus the Crimson Tide, have allowed an average of only 22.3 points per game in their other 4 games. Also, Arkansas State is off of a loss to Georgia Southern but they did outgain the Eagles by over 100 yards in that defeat and the Red Wolves got their offense going in a big way. A home dog in a rare primetime game nationally televised on ESPN2, you can bet that Arkansas State is ready to go here! As a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points, the Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS and they also are on a 7-0 ATS run in October games! Give me the big home dog in this one! 8* ARKANSAS STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #382 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas A & M Aggies (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats are 5-0 this season and the Aggies are just 3-2 and yet opened up as nearly a TD favorite. Long-time followers know where I am going with this one! Texas A & M has played the tougher schedule and also is very tough at home. The odds makers know this too and that is why this line is priced like this. The Aggies have had time to adjust now under new head coach Jimbo Fisher and, keep in mind, the two losses that Texas A & M has on its ledger came against Clemson and Alabama! The Aggies put up nearly 400 yards against the Crimson Tide and did reach 500 yards against the Tigers! Those are very impressive numbers for any offense going against a defense like each of those teams possess. That said, there is great value here because I don't believe the Wildcats offense can keep with the Aggies here. Kentucky has averaged just 313.5 yards per game on offense the past two weeks. Texas A & M is averaging over 500 yards per game this season despite having to play Clemson and Alabama this year! The Wildcats are off of a huge win versus South Carolina last week but 4 Gamecocks turnovers were the key to the victory as the yardage was nearly equal. This is a high value spot for a play because right now the betting markets are enamored with the Wildcats but the unranked Aggies are favored at home for a reason and they prove that to everyone here. As a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Kentucky is a long-term 7-15 ATS. The Aggies are already 4-1 ATS this season and are coming off of their first non-cover this season. That makes this the perfect time to back them! 10* TEXAS A & M

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #355 Saturday 8* Arizona State Sun Devils (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 4 ET - Of course this line looks ultra favorable to the public in terms of backing the home team. After all, Colorado is the team off to a hot start and Arizona State already has a couple blemishes on its record. The key here though, as per usual, is what you find when you dig a little deeper. The Sun Devils have played a much tougher schedule so far this season in comparison with the Buffaloes. Also, Arizona State is still hungry for that first road win under coach Herm Edwards I must admit Edwards has done a better job with ASU than I expected. One of the keys has been the assistant coaches he brought in. That has helped speed the growth under Edwards and the Sun Devils are undervalued in this spot. The Buffaloes are over-rated because of their flashy record which certainly has been helped by playing a weak schedule. Look for the hungry road dog to get the job done here and get their first win away from home under Edwards. Remember they did beat a quality Michigan State team earlier this season. Upset alert here. 8* ARIZONA STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #336 Saturday 8* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) vs Missouri Tigers @ Noon ET - The Gamecocks QB situation is actually adding to the value here. Jake Bentley is listed as doubtful for this game but many believe he needed to benched anyway. The Gamecocks last last week's game versus Kentucky largely due to 4 turnovers and it has not been a good start to the season for Bentley. Looking at South Carolina's stats they would certainly be in much better shape if not for the sub-par play of Bentley. That has led to value in this spot. The Gamecocks are at home and hungry for a win and yet are now a home dog in this spot. Will be a huge effort from the Gamecocks against an over-rated Missouri Tigers team in this one. 8* SOUTH CAROLINA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Friday 8* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-) @ Louisville Cardinals @ 7 ET - The big key here is the triple option attack of Georgia Tech. This is something Louisville is not familiar with and it is going to give this defense all sorts of trouble in this one. The strength of this factor is compounded by the fact that the Cardinals have to face it on a short week too since this is a Friday game. Louisville did play well against Florida State last week but still came up just short on the scoreboard and that just adds to the frustration of this campaign for the Cardinals. Conversely, Georgia Tech comes into this game rolling with confidence after their blowout win versus Bowling Green. The Yellow Jackets have already lost outright twice in this price range (laying about 4) on the road this season but that is the same line range they are in here. Of course the odds makers know what they're doing. In other words, look for the "third time is the charm" to hold true in this case as Georgia Tech goes out and proves why they are a road favorite here. The Yellow Jackets have turned the ball over a total of just 3 times in their last 3 games. Conversely, the mistake-prone Cardinals have turned the ball over 3 times in each of their past 2 games! The Cards are on a 2-4 ATS run as an underdog and Louisville is also on a 1-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. In weeks 5 through 9 of a season, the Yellow Jackets are on a 6-2 ATS run and last week's big win is a sign that, once again, as per usual they are hitting their mid-season stride again. The option shreds the Cards defense. 8* GEORGIA TECH

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 Thursday 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) @ Houston Cougars @ 8 ET - This is a revenge game for Houston and Tulsa certainly hasn't looked good so far this season so that explains the huge number posted on the Cougars as the favorite in this one over the Golden Hurricane. The reason I am going the other direction and going with Tulsa here is because they truly needed that bye week last week and I expect them to come out and play much "cleaner" football this week as they've been done in by turnovers this season. As for the Cougars, they've been killing their own defense because of their fast-paced offense. It seems to be wearing down the Houston defense and they've truly been fortunate this season as statistically they have not been as impressive as some of their final scores would indicate. The Cougars beat Rice by 18 but they allowed 439 yards in that game! They beat Arizona by 27 but only outgained the Wildcats by 20 yards! Houston also lost by 14 at Texas Tech and allowed over 700 yards in that game. The point being that, even though the Cougars are likely to put up big yards in this game, I don't expect Houston to be able to get enough stops to win this game by more than about 10 points. Tulsa will be fired up off of the bye as this a team that inexplicably went 2-10 last season and then has started slow this season. Keep in mind the Golden Hurricane outgained the Owls by over 100 yards at Temple two weeks ago and yet lost the game by 14 points. Don't be surprised if this game is much closer than many are anticipating. Tulsa is 5-0 ATS when playing the 2nd of back to back road games. The Golden Hurricane are on a 7-2 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Houston is 0-4 ATS when off of a bye week and the Cougars are 0-3 ATS as a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. 8* TULSA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #162 Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET - Though Ohio State has been getting the SU wins in recent meetings between these teams, Penn State has covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between these rivals. Also, neither one of these teams has faced a tough schedule so far this season. That said, while one could argue that the Nittany Lions are unproven so far, one should also consider that the Buckeyes have played an easy schedule thus far. That said, what sticks out in the minds of most in the betting markets is that Ohio State has dominated every single week while the Nittany Lions struggled to get past Appalachian State in week one. The key though is that PSU has responded since then with 3 straight blowout wins and they get this game at home plus they are an underdog of more than 3 points. I feel we're getting excellent line value here as a result. While it is true that Penn State has struggled at Ohio State for many years now, it is also true that they give the Buckeyes all they can handle when they meet at State College. The Nittany Lions have covered all but 4 of the last 12 meetings in Happy Valley and and they've won half of the dozen games straight-up. The public is enamored with Ohio State right now (as per usual) but they truly struggled to get past TCU and that is the same Horned Frogs team that just lost badly to Texas. The Frogs lost by 15 points and turned the ball over 4 times in that game. The point is that Ohio State may be just a little over-rated right now. The Nittany Lions are a superb 16-2 SU (and 17-1 ATS!) when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive SU wins. In recent seasons Penn State is 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Also, long-term as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, the Nittany Lions are also 5-1 ATS! Ohio State is just 1-3 ATS their last 4 on grass. Also, the Buckeyes are 2-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The last two match-ups have been decided by a TOTAL of just 4 points! Grab the value with the home dog points in this one. 10* PENN STATE

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #182 Saturday 8* Kansas State Wildcats (+) vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - Very tough spot for Texas and the perfect time to fade them as the betting markets generally have a tendency toward a short term memory. The Longhorns have been hot and are off of back to back wins over USC and TCU but keep in mind this is a bad spot for them. The Horns are off B2B big wins plus have their annual huge match-up with Oklahoma on deck. At the same time as Texas is over-hyped and in a bad scheduling spot, you have a Kansas State team coming in as a dangerous home underdog. Under head coach Bill Snyder, the Wildcats are known for performing well as an underdog but that hasn't been the case so far this season. That said, off of a bad loss at West Virginia where they were outgained by 146 yards but lost the game by 29 points, there is additional value with the Cats at home and hungry off of an embarrassing road loss. You can bet they'll be ready to go against Texas this week. The home team has won each of the last 6 meetings SU (and is 5-1 ATS) and Kansas State is also 5-0 SU and ATS the last 5 times they've faced the Longhorns in Manhattan. The Wildcats offense returned 8 starts on offense this season including all 5 on the offensive line and, after scoring just 6 points last week, this Kansas State team comes out with a fire lit under them this week. Look for the Wildcats to improve to 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they've been a home dog in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* KANSAS STATE

Afternoon Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #139 Saturday 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Central Florida has rolled so far this season but they have played a very weak schedule. Pittsburgh has played a Big Ten team and a pair of ACC teams the last 3 weeks. After falling just short at North Carolina last week, the highly motivated Panthers are likely to give the Golden Knights all they can handle here. UCF is a huge favorite but is only 2-4 ATS in home games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. A lot of points expected here and that means the back door cover option is also open here should we need it. Central Florida has been susceptible to the ground attack this season and gave up over 300 yards rushing to Florida Atlantic last week. The Panthers have run for over 225 yards in three of their four games this season. Pittsburgh is a solid 7-2 in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Long-term the Panthers are 11-4 ATS when they are a road dog in a range of 10.5 to 14 points. Look for the big points to prove well worth having in this match-up as the Golden Knights finally are matched up with a tougher foe. 8* PITTSBURGH

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #392 Saturday 8* Utah State Aggies (-) vs Air Force Falcons @ 10:15 ET - Utah State blew a double digit lead against the Falcons last season but that game was at Air Force. That was the 3rd straight loss for the Aggies in this series and they're certainly ready for payback. Utah State is on a 7-2 ATS run as a home favorite and they are the much stronger team in comparison with Air Force this season. The Falcons have lost many key players to graduation the last two seasons while the Aggies have have one of the most veteran groups of players they've ever had. The past two seasons Air Force is 2-0 against Utah State. However, against the rest of the Mountain West, the Falcons are 2-12 ATS! You see my point? The Falcons struggle to compete against conference competition at the betting window and, in a season that is likely to be another down year for them, I feel there is great value here in going against them in this triple revenge spot! Utah State is 8-1 SU the last 9 times they've been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. The reason that holds significance here is because the Falcons entered this season on a 7-13 ATS run and their only "big board" game so far this season was two weeks ago against Florida Atlantic. They were fortunate to get the cover as their defense was a disaster and I expect the Aggies to fully exploit that weak pass defense here. 8* UTAH STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #397 Saturday 10* Top Play Troy Trojans (-) @ UL-Monroe Warhawks @ 7 ET - I am well aware that there are some weather concerns in the Monroe area for Saturday. However, this side play is such a fantastic situation that I am not going to shy away from it. The hope is that any weather in the area happens earlier in the day and does not interrupt this game. UL Monroe's home stadium is FieldTurf which helps in term of drainage and avoiding a super muddy field as can be the problem on natural surfaces should there be rain in Monroe on Saturday. In my opinion Troy is still the class of the SunBelt Conference and to get them at this low of a number against a Warhawks team that has not won more than 4 games in a year since the 2013 seasons, is a great bargain! Some may be concerned about the Trojans being off the big upset win at Nebraska last week but, keep in mind, two years ago, Troy was nearly a double digit dog at Southern Miss and got the upset win over the Golden Eagles and then turned around won their next game by a 46 point margin. The Trojans last year had the huge upset of LSU and then faltered the next week as they lost outright as a nearly 20 point favorite. Trust me, lesson learned and this Trojans team is fully focused on the task at hand this week. That "task" is that this is their conference opener and Troy will be ready to go here in a big way. Also note that UL-Monroe is actually 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they've faced a team that is off of an outright win as an underdog! Of course that system fits with the Trojans off the upset of the Corhuskers as a double digit dog last week. Also, the Warhawks lost big to Texas A & M last week and failed to cover. That is noteworthy here as UL-Monroe is 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they were off of a SU loss that was also an ATS loss in non-conference action. This is the Warhawks SunBelt opener too and it is time to get serous in conference action. That favors the more talented and stronger Trojans and I am happy to lay the short number. We just need to keep the storms away from the Monroe area as much as possible. They are expected to move away during the evening hours. 10* TROY

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #340 Saturday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ Noon ET - The Bearcats are 3-0 SU and ATS on the season and have played well on both sides of the ball. The Bobcats are 1-1 SU but 0-2 ATS and have played an even weaker schedule than Cincinnati has. Ohio U had their season opener versus Howard and they were favored by 30 but only won by 6. The Bobcats have underachieved thus far and are allowing nearly 600 yards per game! The Bearcats are off of a confidence building blowout win over Alabama A & M last week. While that skewed their offensive stats in a positive fashion, there is no doubt the Cincy defense has played well all season as they are allowing an average of just 8 points per game and they've held the opposition under an average of 230 yards per game. Ohio U is 2-5 ATS as a road underdog in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. The Bobcats are also 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against AAC teams. Keep in mind this game is more important than a "typical" non-conference match-up. That's because these teams are located only about 150 miles apart but haven't met in over 35 years. That said, there is recruiting "turf" at stake here and Cincinnati is out to encourage future signees in the region to be a Bearcat and not a Bobcat. Take the rolling home team as the Ohio U defense continues to struggle. 8* CINCINNATI