Rotation #513: NBA Tuesday Dallas Mavericks -2 @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 10 ET - The Mavericks did not just lose Game 1, they scored just 8 points in the 2nd quarter and trailed 56-30 at the half in an unreal result! These are not the only quirky stats in the games that was ultimately decided by a 12 point margin. The Clippers also made 18 of 36 three pointers! What I like here is that the Clips outscored the Mavs by 24 points (Dallas made 10 threes) from beyond the arc yet the Mavs lost the game by "only" a 12-point margin. That said, there is some value here because I am confident the Clippers will not be raining threes again with such success in Game 2. It is just not sustainable. What it sustainable is being hungry and physical and doing everything you can to get to the free throw line. The Mavs did have 33 free throw attempts compared to just 13 for the Clips in Game 1. Also, Dallas had the edge in steals plus blocked shots were a huge 9 to 3 edge. It was an ugly loss for the Mavs but there were some interesting takeaways from that defeat and I am expecting a very focus and hungry road team to get some payback here in Game 2. This is true even if Kawhi Leonard does end up playing for LA in this one. Dating back to the regular season, the Mavs have now lost 3 straight games. They are a PERFECT 5-0 SU the last 5 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. All 5 of those SU wins have also come by a margin of more than 2 points. Also, when the Clippers are off a SU win by a double digit margin in which they also held their opponent to 98 or less points, LA has gone 0-4 SU and all 4 SU losses were by at least a 3 point margin. Double perfect spot here! Lay it! DALLAS -2

Rotation #552 NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - The 76ers finished the season with 8 straight wins. They rested Embiid in the season finale and he is listed as questionable for this game as a result. However, there is no way he is missing this game. Philly is on a roll and ready to advance and the Heat are still a strong team but they are not on the same level they use to be. Also, some news on the injury front from Miami. Though Duncan Robinson is probable for this game, Terry Rozier has been ruled out and this does impact the depth of Miami for this game. The 76ers 8 straight wins have come by an average margin of 12.6 ppg! The Heat, prior to a double OT win in their final road game of the season, were on a 5-5 run in road games. The margin of defeat in 4 of the 5 losses was 6 or more points. We have solid value here with this line currently as low as a 4.5 as of overnight hours heading into Wednesday! The Heat won the first two games with Philly in the regular season but Embiid missed both of those. The Sixers have won the last two meetings to wrap the regular season series and that was even without Embiid in one of those as well. He is back, the Sixers are confident, they are rested, they are at home, and this is a manageable line. Lay the short number with the hosts in this one! PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Sunday Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 1 ET - The Nets have a lengthy injury list for this one but all the guys listed also missed Friday's game against  the Knicks and Brooklyn lost that game by just 4 points! Also, the Sixers are motivated to win this game but they don't have to win in blowout fashion. I could see Philly trying to build a huge lead and then letting it slip away later and settling for a win by about 10 points. There is no reason to push it here. The Sixers do want to win for playoff positioning reasons but they also want to stay healthy for the post-season. Remember that Embiid is still managing the recovery process with his left knee. So this one will likely be a closer game than many are expecting. Also, Brooklyn is just 10-13 SU last 23 games but only 3 of those 23 games was a loss by more than a dozen points! This line is in the 15.5 range and, knowing Philly wants to rest guys, I just can not foresee this game being a complete blowout. BROOKLYN (+)

NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - The 76ers have Embiid on the injury report but it is not due to injury but just managing his minutes as he recovers from the past injury that kept him out so long. However, I would be surprised if he does not play here. The Sixers are still trying to move into a playoff position and avoid the play-in portion of the post-season! By doing this Embiid could rest then! That said, and with time off both in front of this game and after this game, I expect Embiid to play here. Even if he does not, I still like the red hot Sixers to roll at home in this game! As for the Magic, Franz Wagner may not play here as he is dealing with a current ankle injury. Orlando has been missing him and he is again listed as questionable. Also, you know the Philly fans are going to give former Sixer Markelle Fultz a helluva tough time here as well and this Magic team has lost 3 straight road games. So Philly has won 6 straight games and Orlando has lost 3 straight road games and all by 9 or more points so covering the spread should not be an issue here either. Philly has also won both meetings this season and each victory was by at least 15 points. Also, dating back to last season, the 3 last meetings between these teams have all been Philadelphia wins by a double digit margin! It might seem like a big line here but it is set that way for a reason and this Sixers team is on a roll and they will not slow down here and the road slump for Orlando continues here. This line is in the 7.5 range and we will lay it with confidence! PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Thursday New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 -115 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Pelicans off B2B road wins at Phoenix and Portland. Interestingly enough, the road team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last 6 New Orleans games. Look for that road team trend to reach 7 in a row here as, of course, there is a reason the Kings are such a small home court favorite here! Note that Sacramento is 0-4 SU versus the Pelicans this season! In other words, we are testing multiple perfect trends here. The Kings enter this game having lost 5 of 8. I know the Pelicans have not been lighting the world on fire either of late but the road team trending above as well as the series dominance this season is what makes it easier to fade the slumping Kings here. Losing Huerter and Monk, one mid-March one late-March, also hurt the depth of Sacramento. Additionally, Keegan Murray is dealing with a left calf issue. He played through it in most recent game but is questionable here. The Kings might rest him with this being the front end of a B2B situation. Even if he plays, he is not 100% and the already short-handed Kings are in trouble here. The Pelicans have been without Brandon Ingram for a few weeks now but have 3 wins over playoff teams (Heat, Bucks, Suns) the past few weeks without him. Over a similar period, the struggling Kings have only beat 1 playoff team. As noted above, this line is set this way for a reason and the small dog road team is the way to play this one! Look for the Pelicans to make it 5 in a row over Sacramento plus the road team trend reaches 7 in a row! NEW ORLEANS +1.5 -115

NCAA Monday Purdue Boilermakers (+) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 9:20 ET - If you are a college basketball connoisseur you probably are well aware of the amazing history of UCLA basketball and when they were a dynasty from the mid 60s to the early 70s. You probably also are aware that since those dynasty days of legend head coach John Wooden and UCLA, there have only been two schools that have managed to have B2B national champs in the past 50 years! That said, so many things have to go right for a team to repeat and, as UConn tries to achieve that feat here, I feel the Zach Edey factor is too big to ignore. Yes the Huskies have a big man too but Edey is great at getting opponents into foul trouble and if Donovan Clingan gets into foul trouble it could greatly impact the interior of this UConn team. Couple that with the improving guard play of Purdue we have seen through their tourney run and there is no way I can pass up on the points here. As of about 15 hours before tipoff, this line is as high as a 7 and I feel we have excellent line value here with the Boilers. An outright upset would not shock me at all so certainly knowing they can lose by a half dozen points and we still cash our ticket has me very comfortable with the underdog side in this one. It is hard to say anything bad about the Huskies and indeed there are a fantastic team with stellar guard play too. I just feel that most everyone is already handing the Championship to the Huskies and this Boilers team is a confident, well-coached group that is going to have a helluva lot to say about that! Don't be surprised if this turns into a thriller that goes down to the wire! That said, having the points on your side could prove invaluable. PURDUE (+)

NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:10 ET - Excellent line value here with this line down to a -6. Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B but none of their guys played more than 27 minutes in yesterday's game. It was a big blowout win at Memphis and so none of the starters played in the 4th quarter either! Also, the 76ers need every win they can get right now and they have a great chance to win out as this is their final road game of the season. The Sixers are trying to move up to a playoff spot rather than being stuck in a play-in spot. As for the Spurs, they had been playing better and also playing much more competitive basketball. But now they have had a number of guys lost to injury. They just recently had a pair of guys (Vassell and Sochan) shut down for the season. Also, another player (Osman) is out for this game. Those guys combine to average 38 points per game. San Antonio will have their hands full with a Sixers team rejuvenated by the recent returns of Embiid and Maxey. Even if the Sixers rest a player or two in the B2B (which I do NOT expect) I would still like Philly here as the Spurs are definitely quite short-handed for this one and the 76ers have now won 4 straight games. The Sixers are well-aware they have 3 winnable home games remaining after this as well and they want to get into a playoff spot and avoid the play-in. Perfect scenario for another highly-motivated effort for the road team. Lay it. PHILADELPHIA (-)

NCAA Final Four Saturday NC State Wolfpack (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 6:10 ET - If you look at the two match-ups today we are talking about two very big favorites. In my opinion the best value is here with this underdog. NC State has been the cinderella team in this year's tourney and, conversely, as much I would like to pull the trigger on Alabama today, Connecticut has burned me multiple times and I just can not go against the Huskies. Out of both games today I feel the best value is in going against Purdue. As strong as Edey is, and he has the height edge here of course, Burns is likely going to do a job against him because he is such a big body. From a conditioning standpoint too, the time off has helped him. NC State has been playing very well defensively for an extended stretch now. They have the guard play to be strong enough on the perimeter too that I don't think this is going to be an easy "inside - outside" game for Purdue. The Boilermakers should still do enough to prevail but it will not be easy. I know the Boilers beat just beat #2 seed Tennessee but as long time followers know, I was not expecting much from the Volunteers because Rick Barnes track record in tourneys is not exactly stellar! That said, Purdue got 40 points from Edey or they likely would not even be here for this match-up today with, arguably, an even more dangerous dog. This Pack team is playing the underdog role perfectly as their confidence is building with each win and they feel no pressure. All the pressure here is on the Boilers to advance. As a result, don't be surprised if Purdue has another very ugly shooting performance here. Points are as high as 9.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff! Grab the big points! NC STATE (+)

NBA Friday Miami Heat (-) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:10 ET - As of very early game day morning the Heat are in the -2.5 to -3 range and some money lines are still as low as the -125 to -135 range. I am jumping all over this one early because the Rockets season ended last night. Houston is still mathematically alive but their season effectively ended after they wasted a glorious opportunity last night. The battle for the final play-in position for the upcoming post-season is basically down to just Golden State and Houston. The Rockets were hosting the Warriors last night. They had a chance to move within 2 games of GS with a win. Instead they lost and dropped 4 games back with only 6 games to go. That said, their season is finished and they know it! For me, it is not just about the loss last night, it is the fact that the Rockets got blown out on their home floor and actually were outscored by the Warriors in all 4 quarters! What kind of team is that when you can't accomplish anything in the biggest game of your season! Give some credit to the Warriors for sure but the fact is the Rockets are as soft as a wet paper towel right now! The Heat come into this game hungry and fired up off the home loss to the Sixers last night. That was a tight game and Miami is in a battle with teams like the 76ers and Pacers to secure the #6 seed in the conference and avoid the play-in round. That said, though they fell short last night, the Heat but in a helluva strong effort. Also, they could get Herro back tonight on the floor and that will be another big boost. The Rockets lost starter Amen Thompson to a rolled ankle late in yesterday's game. He has averaged 30 minutes per game last 9 games and they may not rush him back considering their season, as noted above, is effectively over now. This is a great spot to back the Heat at a great number! MIAMI (-)

NBA Wednesday New Orleans Pelicans (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 8 ET - This line has dropped down a little from 4.5 to 3.5 and I like the value with the home team laying a short price. They have revenge from a loss at Orlando less than 2 weeks ago. That is actually one of the few wins that the Magic have over a quality opponent in many many weeks! If you look at Orlando's schedule, even though they have been hot overall, they have played a ton of bad teams. The Magic schedule has been friendly, to say the least, but that changes here. They are on the road and facing an angry revenge-minded team. The reason the Pelicans are not in a good mood is they are off B2B losses in addition to seeking revenge here. Very early this season New Orleans had a 5 games losing streak. However, from mid-November onward, the Pelicans have gone 5-1 SU when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. That said, strong odds on a response here from New Orleans even though they are still without Brandon Ingram. By the way, those 5 wins when in this situation included many double digit blowouts and the smallest margin of victory was a 7 point win. The Pelicans roll here. Home court, revenge and situational factors all are in favor of the Pelicans in this one. NEW ORLEANS (-)

NBA Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:30 ET - Joel Embiid is coming back and YES I do know that it is NOT tonight but just the fact he has been practicing with the team and is expect to see his first action on the Sixers upcoming road trip has the 76ers buzzing! They have been ultra competitive of late even without him and the 5.5 points (as of about 8 hours before tipoff) is definitely a solid value in this spot. Philadelphia has won 2 of last 3 at home and the lone loss was by a single point (to the Clippers) and the Sixers were robbed by a foul that wasn't called in the final seconds. The point is Philly could easily be 3-0 L3 at home. Also, their loss just before the 15-point win over Toronto was a defeat by just 3 points at Cleveland. So the Sixers are already gearing up for Embiid's return and they catch the Thunder at a great time for an upset. Oklahoma City is off B2B wins over Phoenix and then at New York (by 1 point) and they have a tougher match-up with Boston on deck. The Thunder might underestimate the Embiid-less Sixers in this one and Philly has great upset potential here with the way they match up with the Thunder. If they do lose, look for it to be by the slimmest of margins. Grab the points with the home dog. PHILADELPHIA (+)

NCAA Tourney Sunday NC State Wolfpack (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:05 ET - This line is up to as high as a 7.5 as of 9 hours before tipoff and it is too much in my opinion. Seemingly every year a lower-seed team becomes the Cinderella in the tourney and goes on a magical run. This season that team has been NC State and I am not going to let this value-packed opportunity pass me by. Entering Sunday, there are 6 teams still alive for the National Championship and the one and only team seeded lower than a #4 seed out of all these teams is the Wolfpack team. Of course Duke is solid in their own right and they lost to NC State in the ACC Tourney. That makes this a revenge game but while revenge is a key motivator and can be very important in regular season settings, it truly does not mean a damn thing in post-season situations because who is not motivated in the post-season? The Wolfpack are just as motivated to have a shot at winning the national championship as the Blue Devils are. That said, I love the big dog line value here. Duke should not even be here. If Houston did not lose their start guard EARLY in the Sweet 16 match-up, the Cougars don't lose that game. That said, the Blue Devils luck might just run out here but if they do find a way to win I do not expect them to cover this spread. Give Duke credit for beating Houston of course but again that game could have an asterisk by it. Now consider that the two teams they played before that were James Madison from the Sun Belt and Vermont from America East. Again, I am just pointing out good fortune for the Blue Devils in getting to this point. As for NC State, they are on an 8-game winning streak and 6 of the wins were against major conference teams that all had at least 20 wins this season: Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Texas Tech and Marquette. Those are NOT easy teams to keep a winning streak going against so my point is that it is 100% NO FLUKE that the Wolfpack have made it this far. Sometimes a team just jells at the perfect time and becomes a team of destiny. That is the look and feel that this NC State team has this season. Again, maybe the magical run ends here but 8 of the last 10 losses for the Pack have been by single digits and, if they do fall short here, look for it to be by a very slim margin. The Wolfpack are loaded with confidence right now and all the pressure in this one is on Duke as they are expected to win. This makes for a dangerous underdog. The Pack are that dog and this one goes down to the wire. NC STATE (+)

NBA Saturday Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:40 ET - The Bucks will be without Lillard here while the Hawks could have Jalen Johnson back and he has been playing well. Speaking of playing well, Atlanta has been overall as they have won 4 straight including beating Boston twice! The Hawks have won 7 of last 8 home games while the Bucks are on the road and have some injury issues to deal with here also. Some guys are not 100% for sure. Also, Milwaukee has lost 3 straight road games and 5 of last 6. This is a high value home dog spot as the Hawks have been the hotter team of late plus they are the healthier team right now even though they remain without Trae Young of course. Dejounte Murray is off a 44-point game and has scored 28 points or more in 4 of his last 5 games. This is a classic case of long-term metrics getting too much credit compared to the true current situation. As a result, line value that is off the charts good as Hawks stay hot at home while the Bucks road struggles continue. ATLANTA (+)

NCAA Elite Eight Saturday Illinois Illini (+) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 6:09 ET - You knew it was only a matter of time before the upsets started rolling in finally. Sure enough, in the Sweet 16 round, the higher seeded team LOST 5 of the 8 matchups. Now, I am certainly not saying the Illini win this game outright but I would not be shocked if they did. Connecticut was the only higher seed to win their game in the 4 Thursday games. In the past 2 days we have seen two #1 seeds and three #2 seeds lose. Illinois is a very strong team on the offensive end. Of course it goes without saying that the defending champs are a sizable favorite here with good reason as they have earned it. However, the Illini - just like UConn - are a very efficient club on the offensive end. Illinois gets that high efficiency in part because they - again, just like the Huskies - score well both inside and outside. The key here is that keeps the pressure on Connecticut here as long scoring droughts are highly unlikely with this Illini team. Illinois has 8 losses this season but not a single one by double digits. For Connecticut to get the money they essentially have to win this game by double digits. Another I like about that is the fact it has been awhile since the Huskies were challenged. That was in a 5-point win over St John's in the Big East tourney. Another interesting thing about that is the line was nearly identical to this line. Are the Red Storm really as good as the Illini? No way! That said, the fact is we are getting an inflated line here because the Huskies have just steamrolled teams in 4 straight games since that tighter win over St John's. Lets take advantage of the line value available now in this one as a result! ILLINOIS (+)

NCAA Friday Creighton Bluejays (+) vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 10:10 ET - We saw 3 of the 4 lower-seeded teams in the 4 match-ups yesterday win outright. With this line now climbing as high as a 3.5 in some spots, it is go time with this one. The Volunteers are off that huge win over Texas which is, of course, where Vols coach Rick Barnes was head coach for years. Tennessee's Rick Barnes has a history of falling short of expectations and just like that non-covering win over the Longhorns, I expect another very tight game here. The Bluejays have a great shot at the upset but we will grab the points just in case. Creighton is also off a hard-fought win as they wree taken to double-OT by Oregon. That was a fortunate cover for me in that game but the fact is it also shows this could be a season that was "meant to be" for Creighton. The Big East is so tough and absolutely deserved more than 3 teams making the tourney. Note that all 3 teams are still alive with UConn winning yesterday and Creighton and Marquette playing today. Also, Seton Hall made the quarterfinals of the NIT and could win that tournament. I am not sold on the SEC like I am on the Big East as so many of the SEC teams got bounced early. I know that Alabama upset UNC yesterday but now don't be surprised if we see another upset involving the other SEC team left in the tourney today. I will grab the points just in case but remember also that Tennessee lost their final regular season SEC game and then immediately got bounced in the SEC Tourney. Just how good is this team really? They have since beat a MAAC school and yes they then beat Texas but the Horns were turnover-prone and it cost them the game. Note that Tennessee's last two games against Power 5 conference teams - Texas and Mississippi State - saw them shoot a combined 41 of 127 from the field including a paltry 11 of 58 from 3-point land. That will not cut it against sharp-shooting Creighton. The Bluejays plus the points is the value play here. CREIGHTON (+)

NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - The Sixers are fired up after they were robbed by the refs at home against the Clippers and it cost them a win. Of course that does not mean they automatically bounce back with a SU win here. However, it does mean they will give a strong effort and that should be enough for at least the ATS cover in this one. They are getting 8.5 points as of about 6 hours before tipoff for this one and the Cavs seem over-valued here. Even if they get some players back for this one, the  Cavaliers are truly a banged up team right now. Also, though the Sixers have been struggling they are competing hard and Cleveland has not exactly been lighting the world on fire of late. In fact, the Cavs have lost 7 of 10 games and 1 of the wins was by just 5 points. The Sixers are in this one all the way. Philly is only 3-4 SU last 7 games but 2 of the 4 losses by 7 or less points. Huge hungry underdog value here as 76ers come out firing on all cylinders after feeling they were dealt a bad break loss against the Clippers. The Sixers have won 2 of the 3 meetings this season and their only loss was by 3 points in overtime! Grab the generous points here. PHILADELPHIA (+)

NCAA Friday Gonzaga Bulldogs (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 7:39 ET - When these teams met earlier this season in the Maui Invitational, the Bulldogs led by 5 at the half. The problem for Gonzaga was they shot a ridiculous 6 of 32 from three point land. Given that number they should have lost the game by much more than just 10 points. This Bulldogs team is battle tested and they also faced UConn this season. Gonzaga will not be intimidated here and they have a solid 7-man playing rotation. Two of their top guys also ended up with 4 fouls in that prior meeting and that also impacted things. I look for the Bulldogs to be much stronger in the rematch and all the pressure is truly on Purdue here. The Boilermakers are a #1 seed and, as we saw yesterday, with so many strong seeds advancing, the higher seeded team is prone to upsets. 3 of the 4 games Thursday saw the lower seeded team win the game. I would not be surprised to see the underdog Bulldogs win this game outright but we will grab the points just in case as getting 5.5 here is a huge value for sure. GONZAGA (+)

NCAA Tourney Thursday: San Diego State Aztecs (+) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 7:40 ET - The Aztecs have lost 10 games this season but only 1 was by a double digit margin. Now, of course, the Huskies are the defending champs and are a big favorite with plenty of reasoning behind it. However, the point is that this Aztecs team is a tough team too. They come from a Mountain West Conference that was very tough this season. Also, they have revenge here from losing the Championship Game to UConn last season. Note that, in that game, the Aztecs were down by just 5 points with about 5 minutes to go when the Huskies hit a big 3-pointer and then eventually pulled away for the win by 17 points. The point is that the game was not the blowout it might look like on the surface in terms of the final score. That experience in the Championship Game will do the Aztecs plenty of good here in the rematch. They have the full confidence that they can compete with this Huskies and, while it seems nearly everyone is practically considering Connecticut B2B champs already, I am not so sure. It is so tough to repeat and so many things have to go right and this Aztecs team can D up. So what happens if the shots are not falling for the Huskies and a tough defensive-minded team like San Diego State gets a lead and can play from in front? Not including OT points of course, the Aztecs have allowed an average of only 63 points last 15 games! The Huskies have a great D too and have allowed more than 67 points just twice in last 9 games but the point is the Aztecs are being a little undervalued here with this inflated number in the 11 range as of 12 hours before tipoff. This game is going to be a war and I expect it to be decided by single digits as a result. The Aztecs have good size on the wings and Jaedon LeDee has been a beast this season for them this season and he was only playing 19 minutes per game on average last season. He will be much more of a handful for the Huskies to contend with this time around! Grab the big points here! SAN DIEGO STATE (+)

NCAA Tourney Thursday: Clemson Tigers (+) vs Arizona Wildcats @ 7:10 ET - Clemson is hot at the right time. The Tigers beat a solid New Mexico team and strong Baylor team to get here. I like what I have seen. Yes, Arizona is a tough team but this line is in the 7.5 range and looks like too much. Clemson's final 6 regular season losses were ALL by 7 or less points and, in fact, were by an average margin of defeat of just 3 points. Arizona lost 2 of 3 entering the Big Dance and then got a freebie by facing an outclassed Long Beach State in their first match-up. Though facing Dayton was then a tougher 2nd round match-up, note that the Flyers had 6 more field goal attempts in the game. Dayton was simply done in by an off-shooting night from downtown in that game. Note that Clemson has been hot from the field and has 4 guys averaging double digits in points so far in the tourney. Getting balanced scoring is key going up against a tough Arizona team and I like the fact that Chase Hunter has gotten particularly hot. His strong play at the guard position (15 or more points in 7 of last 9 games including 20+ so far in both tourney games) helps take some pressure off leading scorer PJ Hall. But Hall does combine with Schieffelin for solid frontcourt scoring while Hunter and Girard are getting it done in the backcourt. A balanced attack can hang tough with this Arizona team and the Tigers confidence is very high entering this match-up. It is not just coincidence that there are 4 ACC teams in the Sweet 16! At the same time, Arizona is the only team remaining from the Pac-12. Grab the points here! CLEMSON (+)

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +6 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:40 ET - I really want to take the money line here but the 6 points is certainly nice, added insurance but take a good look at this one because the SU trending is quite impressive! The Clippers are only 5-7 SU L12 games. Simply put, LA has just not been playing that well. This is especially true when you look at the teams they have beaten. They beat the Bulls twice but Chicago has a losing record this season. They beat the Blazers twice but Portland is a poor 19-53 this season. So the only other win must have been against a powerhouse, right? Nope, not at all. The other win was over a Rockets team that would not even make the play-in round of the post-season if the season ended today. All of this said, these struggling Clippers are now favored by a half-dozen points against a respectable Sixers team. Of course Philly is without Embiid and yes the Clips have revenge here for the loss to the 76ers in LA last week. However, this line is still far too high in my opinion. The 76ers are happy to be back home as they have played only two home games in the last 2 and 1/2 weeks and yes they won both games. Grab the points here as the value is with the home dog in this one. PHILADELPHIA +6

NIT Semi-Final Wednesday UNLV Runnin' Rebels +5.5 @ Seton Hall Pirates @ 7 ET - Certainly I respect the Pirates and, particularly at home, but this Rebels team is also strong and well-coached too - just like Seton Hall. What I particularly like about UNLV here is that they are on a 12-3 SU and 2 of the 3 losses were by just 3 points. Also, the 3 games included two losses to Nevada (NCAA Tourney team) and a loss to San Diego State (still alive in NCAA Tourney and facing UConn next). The point is that this Rebels team has been rock solid and is offering excellent underdog line value here. Remember they were 8-3 on the road this season. As solid as Seton Hall is, it took OT for them to get past an underachieving St Joseph's team in round one of this tourney. Also, the Pirates beat North Texas by 14 but the Mean Green had 5 more shots from the field. North Texas simply had an off shooting night. Give some credit to the Pirates defense of course but Seton Hall now faces a much tougher challenge here. Grab the underdog line value with a team that has played very well on the road this season. I like fading line moves too as this one has been moving toward the Pirates since the line came out. UNLV +5.5

NIT Tuesday Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 @ Indiana State Sycamores @ 9 ET - Look at the two NIT match-ups today and you will notice something very interesting about the difference in the lines on the two games. As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. When people see something off and jump all over it you will often find me, if I am on the game, absolutely on the other side of the masses. So, in this case, notice that Ohio State is hosting Georgia and the Buckeyes are favored by 8.5 in that one and have the better overall record plus a home record of 15-4 facing a Bulldogs team with a road record of 5-6. Now look at this game. Indiana State has a much better overall record than Cincinnati plus the Sycamores are 15-1 at home while the Bearcats are 4-7 on the road and yet this line opened up at 2.5 in most shops. Sure enough Indiana State is up to a 3.5 point favorite in this one and, for me, it is go time on this one! Whey in the world would the Buckeyes be 8.5 point favorites over Georgia today but the Sycamores opened up as only a 2.5 favorite over the Bearcats when you consider the home / road dominating variances involved in each match-up? Exactly! Don't let this line fool you. Cincy is the play here. Keep in mind, the Bearcats played in the ultra tough Big 12 this season and they are 15-2 in non-conference games with the only two losses to Xavier and Dayton. The Musketeers also made the NIT and the Flyers made the NCAA Tourney. Cincy is a tough team battle-tested and the Sycamores are certainly solid but this line is set "funny" for a reason and I love fading the masses. Road team in an upset is my prediction BUT will grab the value of the points just in case. CINCINNATI +3.5

NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B spot but they have momentum on their side after knocking off the Clippers last night in LA. Also, they only had two players go big minutes in that game so this Philly team will not be as worn out as one might expect in a B2B. Additionally, Sacramento just got back from a trip back east. Yes, the Kings were off yesterday but they had a lot of travel including coming all the way back from Orlando. Also, if you look at the long-term trending of the Kings this season, they do not have a history of blowing teams out. They are only 18-15 SU last 33 games and many of those wins by a single digit margin. In fact, only 9 times in last 33 games have the Kings won the game by double digits. I like this hungry Sixers team in this spot to stay within the inflated number. They have the shooters to hit enough shots from outside to stay within striking distance of Sacramento throughout this game. PHILADELPHIA +9.5

CIT Semi-Final: Monday Tarleton State Texans -5 vs IPFW Mastodons @ 7 ET - This is the match-up I wanted and so I am getting involved in this one with a best bet. IPFW was "okay" this season but they still finished in the bottom half of the Horizon League as they finished 7th in the 11-team league. The Mastodons are decently offensively but how well will their shots fall on the road here? Also, IPFW is not good defensively. The Texans, therefore, hold a big defensive edge in addition to also having the home court edge. Also, Tarleton State finished 2nd in the 11-team WAC and the team they finished behind was Grand Canyon. Yes, that same Grand Canyon team that just beat St Mary's in the NCAA Tourney plus would have also upset Alabama were it not for a horrific shooting effort including just 2 of 20 from three-point land! So the point is we have value here with Texans laying a very reasonable number at home in this one. They went 13-3 at home while IPFW went 9-7 on the road this season. Also, 9 of the 12 Mastodons losses this season were by at least 6 points and this one will be too! TARLETON STATE -5

NCAA Sunday Grand Canyon Lopes +6.5 vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 7:10 ET - It is unlikely that A & M tops Houston as a double digit dog today. That said, it would not surprise me if Tennessee is the last team standing from the SEC entering the Sweet 16. Yes, another upset win for Grand Canyon is not out of the question here but we will grab the points as added insurance just in case. The fact is that the SEC was over-rated this season and we have seen that play out time and time again in this tourney. Even though the Vols are still standing they are just 1-1 ATS in the tourney after barely sneaking by Texas last night. As for the Crimson Tide they had lost 4 of 6 games before knocking off Charleston to open up the tourney. Yes, they won by double digits but they allowed 96 points to a Coastal Athletic Association team! Conversely, Grand Canyon enters this game having won 6 straight and 30 of 34 this season. Though they come from a weaker conference, I like the fact the Lopes put up an average of 75 ppg in their 4 games versus respectable non-conference foes like San Francisco, South Carolina, San Diego State and now St Mary's to begin the tourney with an upset. Also, they allowed just 71 ppg in those 4 games and one has to have a little concern over Alabama's lack of D in their opening win! Yes, the Tide can score well but they have allowed an AVERAGE of 94 ppg last 11 games! There is nothing "average" about that and this Lopes team has proven they can compete with teams from stronger conferences. This goes to the wire and an outright upset would not shock me in the least! GRAND CANYON +6.5

NCAA Tourney Sunday Colorado Buffaloes +4 vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 12:10 ET - I am going to keep riding the Buffaloes. As I have stated in my recent write-ups, once they finally started winning road games their confidence sky-rocketed and they have carried that with them ever since they got on the late-season run following a much-needed road win. Colorado has never looked back and has now won 10 of 11 games. Now, of course, Marquette is a rock solid team. However, all the pressure is on them here as the #2 seed facing a #10 seed. Also, the Golden Eagles had lost 3 of 6 before the win over a #15 seed Western Kentucky team. It is certainly true those losses for Marquette were against top teams as it included #1 UConn and a ranked Creighton team as well. However, what I like about the Buffaloes is they have been so strong with shooting from all over the floor of late. They are playing with a ton of confidence and they are the stronger rebounding team. A big edge on the glass could also end up being the edge that decides this game. No points needed most likely but if the game is ultra tight late and swings the way of Marquette, the 4 points could come in handy. The Golden Eagles are known for being a solid shooting team but the Buffaloes are knocking down 3's nearly as well as any team in the country on the season. Also, Colorado is the better team at the free throw line too which can be a key in tight games when in tourney time like this especially. The points are quite generous considering all of the above. COLORADO +4

Rotation #794: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Creighton Bluejays -4.5 vs Oregon Ducks @ 9:40 ET - As I mentioned in my pick on Oregon over South Carolina, the Ducks have a great head coach and they had a huge coaching advantage in that game. However, now they take on a Bluejays team that also has an excellent head coach. Both Dana Altman and Greg McDermott are veteran coaches with a helluva winning track record long-term. In fact, Altman used to coach at Creighton and was there for a long period from the mid-90s through 2010. So what does this match-up come down to? Well, there are big edges for Creighton in this one as they have a cohesive group of players that have multiple seasons of experience together. That pays off in tougher match-ups like this one. As for Oregon, they rely heavily on a trio of guys that include a freshman plus a senior that played his first 3 years at South Carolina. Now Couisnard is off the huge  game versus his former team but again, he and Shelstad and Dante don't have quite the same level of cohesiveness that this Bluejays team has with their guys having all played together for multiple seasons. That creates a bond in big game situations that does make a big difference. I also like the rebounding edge going to Creighton in this match-up as well. The seeding for these tournaments is not easy and is often debated but the fact is they do, for the most part, a damn good job. That said, a #3 seed laying just 4.5 points to a #11 seed is quite a solid value. It is not a mistake as the Ducks are on everyone's radar right now after the Pac-12 Tourney run but, the point is, it has created value in the marketplace. Here we take advantage! CREIGHTON -4.5

Rotation #791: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Texas Longhorns +6.5 vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 8 ET - Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes was the head coach at Texas for many years from '98 to 2015! That adds extra intrigue to an already intriguing match-up. The pressure this match-up is truly on the Volunteers as they are they higher seed and are expected by most to advance to the Sweet 16 (at the very least) this season. I love fading pressure-filled favorites that might be over-valued! Why would the Vols be over-valued a bit? Well the SEC has had a rough go of it in the tourney already. Auburn and Florida lost yesterday after Kentucky was one of 3 SEC teams that were beaten Thursday. The Wildcats were one of the biggest upsets thus far and they joined South Carolina and Mississippi State in exiting the tourney on the first day of it! This is contrary to the Big 12 which still has Baylor and Kansas and Houston and Iowa State as well as this Texas team still alive in the Big Dance. So one must remember that most of the Vols games the past few months, of course, have been against SEC competition which may not be as tough as some thought! When you look back at Tennessee non-conference action it includes losses to Tourney teams like Purdue and Kansas and North Carolina. Granted those are great teams but, the point is, do the Volunteers (from an over-rated SEC) really deserve to be favored by this much over a solid Texas team? In my opinion, absolutely not! Keep in mind, coach Barnes has a long history of his teams underachieving in March Madness. Of course they beat an outclassed Saint Peter's team to open things up but the Longhorns beat a solid Colorado State team by a double digit margin and held them to just 44 points. Look for this one to go down to the wire making the points invaluable. TEXAS +6.5

Rotation #799: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Washington State Cougars +6.5 vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 6:10 ET - Lot of value with the points in this one. The Cougars are 25-9 SU this season. Washington State has seen 4 of last 5 losses come by 6 or less points. Since the calendar flipped the page to the year 2024, only one time have the Cougars lost by more than 6 points! As for Iowa State, they are a strong team from the tough Big 12. However, the Cyclones averaged 66.8 ppg last 9 games of the regular season including conference tourney. The Cougars averaged 74 ppg their last 8 games before losing to Colorado in a low-scoring grinder in the Pac-12 Tourney. The point is that Iowa State does have a solid defense but this Washington State offense has been consistent and they just do not get blown out in games. The Cougars defense is not that far behind that of Iowa State's and also the underdog holds a big edge in this one in the rebounding department. The Cougars are also 4-0 SU this season in games decided by 4 or less points so this team knows how to win tight games. I do think we could see an outright upset here but will grab the generous points just in case. WASHINGTON STATE +6.5

NCAA Friday TCU Horned Frogs -3.5 vs Utah State Aggies @ 9:55 ET - The Mountain West teams are already falling in this tourney. Utah State is no slouch for sure but TCU played in the brutal Big 12 this season and this battle-tested Horned Frogs hold the edge in terms of strength of schedule the way I see it. Also, note that the Aggies went only 3-5 against the other MWC teams that won 24 or more games this season - Colorado State, San Diego State, New Mexico and Nevada. Just like Texas knocked off Colorado State yesterday, this is another spot where a solid Big 12 team is going to knock off a MWC foe. Keep in mind, Nevada also lost yesterday to the #3 team in the Atlantic Ten. I am just as sold on this MWC team being as strong as some contend it is. At the same time there is no questioning the Big 12 was a powerhouse conference this season made even stronger with the additions of Houston and Cincinnati this season. The Horned Frogs just got hammered by a great Houston team by 15 to get knocked out of the Big 12 Tourney. But including 3-0 this season and dating back to last season, TCU is 4-0 L4 times they have entered a game off loss by at least a dozen point margin. By the way, all 4 of those wins by at least a dozen points and the line here on this one is available at 3.5 at the time of this posting. Lay it! TCU -3.5

NCAA Friday Colorado Buffaloes +1.5 vs Florida Gators @ 4:30 ET - I have been riding the Buffaloes hot streak for awhile now and I will not stop now! We saw the SEC struggle yesterday as 3 teams already got knocked out including #3 Kentucky upset by a #14 seed! The only SEC winner yesterday was Tennessee and that was a #15 versus #2 mismatch. As for the Pac-12, they are rolling. Note that Utah also advanced in the NIT and here in the NCAA, Arizona and Washington State and Oregon all advanced. Colorado has won 9 of 10 games and the only loss was to the Ducks who have a great coach in Altman and know how to win at Tourney time. They showed that gain yesterday against South Carolina. So no shame in that one loss for the Buffaloes last 10 games and once this Buffs team started proving they can win away from home, their confidence level was boosted greatly. This team is truly starting to believe and is playing with a ton of confidence. That will lead the way again in this one and I look for Florida to struggle again on the defensive end. Yes, the Gators can put up big points but this Florida team has allowed at least 79 points in 10 of last 12 games. This is the time of year when defense really matters. I know the Gators offense is strong but their points against numbers leave a lot to be desired. As for the Buffaloes, they have allowed 58 points or less in 4 of last 5 games and that included solid foes like Boise State, Utah and Washington State. Both teams should score well here but in the end, this Colorado team certainly appears more capable of getting enough stops for the win. COLORADO +1.5

NCAA Friday Northwestern Wildcats +4 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 12:15 ET - These are two very good offenses but what I like about the Wildcats here is they actually play defense quite well for extended stretches while the Owls almost never do. Additionally we have 4 points to work with here too. I feel this is a fantastic value for grabbing Northwestern and the points. The Wildcats enter this one having won 6 of 10 games. In those 10 games they had one high-scoring loss to Iowa 87-80 (one outlier) but allowed an average of only 64 points in the other 9 games! Conversely, FAU is 5-3 L8 games and there was no outlier as they allowed 77 points in these 8 games and consistently allowed big points. In a win or go home game in the NCAA Tourney against two teams most experts view as equal, I am happy to grab the better defensive team and the 4 points! Also, the last two losses for Florida Atlantic were to a Memphis team that lost 8 of 15 games to wrap the season and also to a Temple team that went 5-13 in conference action this season. Northwestern's last 3 losses were to Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin! All 3 of those are Big Dance teams and the Hawkeyes and Spartans advance already with wins yesterday while the Badgers are favored to win today on Friday as well. All signs above are pointing to the fact that the Owls are over-valued here and the Wildcats are undervalued! I will gladly take the generous points here as added insurance though I am making this wager expecting an outright underdog upset win. NORTHWESTERN +4

NCAA Thursday Texas Tech Red Raiders (-) vs NC State Wolfpack @ 9:40 ET - Give credit where credit is due and NC State had a helluva run through the ACC Tourney. However, they were fortunate to force OT against a late-game mistake-prone Virginia team. Then they beat rival North Carolina despite the Tar Heels having 16 more shot attempts from the field in that game. Also, the Pack made 6 of 8 threes while UNC took 30 threes but made only 8 of them! Again, give the Wolfpack credit but the fact remains both the Cavaliers and Heels played a role in giving victories away in each game. The result is line value here. NC State is a little overvalued now and Texas Tech, knocked out the Big 12 Tourney by Houston (one of the nations best), is now undervalued as a result. The Red Raiders had a better regular season than NC State but the Wolfpack got hot in the Tourney. This is a new tourney now however! Though Texas Tech has a new coach this season in Grant McCasland, he has a 375-131 career coaching record and has had success every step of the way no matter where he has been and what level the program was. Junior College, Division II and now Division 1 for the past 8 seasons. McCasland is a winner. Kevin Keatts has been solid for NC State but Keatts is 0-4 SU all time in NCAA tournament action - twice with NC St and twice with UNC Wilmington. 11 of 14 Wolfpack SU losses have been by at least 4 points this season! 19 of 23 Red Raiders wins have been by 6 or more points this season. Lay it! TEXAS TECH -4.5

NCAA Thursday Texas Longhorns -2 vs Colorado State Rams @ 6:50 ET - For whatever reason, Virginia was not ready when they faced Colorado State. It was an embarrassment and the Cavaliers offense was pathetic and they missed the last 15 field goal attempts they took in the first half of that game. That was a 1st half in which they ended up scoring just 14 points. That is an embarrassment and while some credit goes to the Rams, the ugly margin of that game had a lot to do with a Cavs team that was ill-prepared. That is not happening again here. Now Colorado State faces a Longhorns team that will be ready and that plays in one of the toughest conferences in the land. The Big 12 has 6 Top 25 teams and the MWC has 2. The Mountain West is a solid conference but this goes to show how the markets can sometimes get a big misaligned on a game and that is the situation we have here in my opinion. The Longhorns off a tough tight loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Tourney and UT is 9-2 SU this season when they are off a loss. As for Colorado State, they just beat a Cavaliers team that gave an embarrassing effort. Prior to that they did have a nice win over a solid Nevada team but went 3-4 in their other 7 games since the 21st of February. Those 3 wins were against 3 of the bottom-feeders in MWC - Wyoming, San Jose State and Air Force. Those 3 teams went a combined 12-42 in the MWC this season. The Rams are a solid team...but they are not as strong as the Longhorns! This is a HUGE line VALUE! Lay the bargain number here! TEXAS -2

NCAA Thursday: Oregon Ducks +1.5 -120/-125 or Pick'em -110 vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 4 ET - Take a look at the other 11 vs 6 match-ups on the card today. The 6 seed is favored solidly in each one with Texas Tech -5 and BYU -9.5 so the odds makers must be crazy here with this line near a pick'em, right? Of course not! This game is priced atypical to an 11 seed vs 6 seed match-up with good reason. For starters, the only loss that red hot Colorado has in last 10 games was to this Oregon team in the Pac-12 Championship. That is the same Buffaloes team that just knocked off a solid Boise State last night in the First Four to advance. I know South Carolina just got embarrassed by Auburn in the SEC Tourney and would like to respond here. However, the Gamecocks also got drilled by Auburn in the regular season plus lost AT HOME to Tennessee in the regular season plus got embarrassed at Alabama too. Those are 3 of the best teams in the SEC so against strong teams, South Carolina has had some major slip-ups with 3 losses ALL by 27 or more points! That is the sign of a soft team when you can get beat that bad. I am hearing the talk that now SC is playing with a chip on their shoulder here. I don't care. They are playing a tough Ducks team and a chip on your shoulder is not what wins games. This is the first time the Gamecocks have been in the tourney since 2017. Oregon did lose both regular season games with Arizona this season but then knocked them out in the Conference Tourney. Also, same thing with how their season against Colorado went. They also split with Washington State and Utah which are the other 20+ win teams from the Pac-12. The Ducks have had good post-season success in terms of advancing whether NCAA or NIT. Also if you had to pick a coach for your team in College Hoops would you rather have Dana Altman (27 straight winning seasons!) or Lamont Paris (3 ugly seasons in 6 in his career)? Altman is one of the winningest active coaches in NCAA basketball and this is a mismatch in the coaching department in my opinion and yes the Ducks have the talent on the floor to match South Carolina. Don't let this line fool you! OREGON +1.5 -120/-125 or Pick'em -110

Rotation #739: NCAA Thursday Akron Zips +12.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 1:30 ET - Akron undervalued here and Creighton overpriced in my opinion. The Zips come from a weaker conference and do have 10 losses on the season. However, this is a solid team defensively and I expect the Bluejays to struggle to truly pull away in this game as a result. Note that Akron had only two blowout losses in their 10 defeats this season. The other 8 losses were all by a single digit margin and, in fact, by an average margin of just 3.6 points per game! Creighton, of course, is the stronger team and from the better conference. However, another key with the Bluejays year in and year out is they tend to shoot much better at home. Of course this is a neutral site game and note that Creighton blew away the weakling Hoyas and Blue Demons at Georgetown and DePaul, respectively but look at their other last 10 games away from home. The Jays went just 4-6 SU in those 10 games and also 3 of the 4 wins were by an average margin of just 4 points! This game is going to be a lot closer than you might be expect for a 14 seed vs 3 seed match-up! Groce is a solid head coach and was at Illinois in the Big Ten before coming to Akron. He has already enjoyed great success with the Zips. They were also in the Big Dance two years ago as a 13 seed and so they faced a 4 seed. They lost that game by just 4 points to a UCLA team that went on to the Sweet 16. I just can not envision a blowout here and am confidently grabbing the big points in this one. AKRON +12.5

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 @ Phoenix Suns @ 10:10 ET - If you look at the board tonight there are 8 games and only 3 of them are match-ups in which both of the teams have a winning record. The Heat / Cavs appears to be an even match-up and Cleveland is favored by about their home court edge. Makes sense. The Celtics are a decent sized favorite over the Bucks but Boston is an insane 31-3 at home this season so that line makes sense as well. This Philly / Phoenix game is the outlier in my opinion. The Suns just have not been playing well enough to justify this large of a line. The Sixers, even while dealing with injuries, remain very scrappy and they have made some changes in their lineup/playing rotation of late that are already starting to pay dividends. That said, the 8.5 points here appears to be on the high side. The Suns have won just 6 of 13 games and the average margin of victory in the 6 wins, not including OT points, was just 6.5 points. Phoenix just has NOT been blowing teams away of late. The Sixers are just 5-5 L10 games but 4 of the 5 losses by a single digit margin! Don't be surprised when this one goes down to the wire. PHILADELPHIA +8.5

Rotation #703: NCAA First Four Colorado Buffaloes -2.5 vs Boise State Broncos @ 9:10 ET - The Mountain West is solid but the Pac-12 is even tougher. I have plenty of respect for the Broncos but the Buffaloes really seemed to turn their season a dime when they finally figured out how to win away from home. Once they did that their confidence level exploded and they are not a different team. Yes they bowed out of the conference tourney when they lost to Oregon but the Ducks are a strong team. As solid as Boise State is, they lost all 3 HOME games against the other 3 teams that finished along with them in the top 4 of the MWC. The point is, if you can't win at home against the best teams in your conference, how can you expected to win in a neutral site game against an equally strong (if not stronger) Pac-12 team playing its best basketball of the season? Note that the Buffaloes won 3 of the 4 home games against the other 20+ win teams in their conference. The Buffs had won 8 straight games before the Ducks beat them by 7 in the Pac-12 Tourney final. Note that Colorado lost the turnover battle 13 to 3 in that game and were outscored 23 to 0 in terms of points off turnovers! Given that it is amazing they only lost the game by 7. They will clean things up again for this one and when they play clean basketball, they have been tough to beat for many weeks now. They get this win and cover the small number. COLORADO -2.5

Rotation #715: NIT Tourney: Wednesday San Francisco Dons +6 @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 9 ET - These Bearcats started the season 12-2 but went 8-12 from then until now! The Dons have as many wins in just 12 games as the Cats had in those 20 games. Indeed, San Francisco is on an 8-4 run and the kicker is that one loss was to a 20-win Santa Clara team and the other 3 losses were against ranked teams - St Mary's and Gonzaga! This SF team is a solid shooting team that plays well on the defensive end. The Bearcats will be in a war here just to win this game let alone cover the spread. That said, I love the points here as Cincy's most recent wins included against a Kansas team that was without the two top scorers in the Big 12! Also, Cats won against Kansas State but were down in that game with just 10 seconds to go when they hit the game winner in the 1-point win. The other two wins in the past 4 weeks were against a West Virginia team that went 9-23 overall and 4-14 in Big 12 action. This Bearcats team is over-rated in this spot and the Dons having to travel to Cincinnati for this game is no big deal when they have had so much time off to prepare for this game! Grab the generous points. SAN FRANCISCO +6

Rotation #702: NCAA First Four Montana State Bobcats -3.5 vs Grambling State Tigers @ 6:40 ET - This is essentially a play based on conference strength. The fact is that the SWAC that Grambling hails from is absolutely the worst conference in Division 1 basketball. The Big Sky is certainly not a big conference but it is a much stronger conference than the SWAC. That said, the fact the Bobcats have a much stronger offense than the Tigers plus the fact that they faced a tougher overall schedule plus the fact that Grambling is in the Big Dance for the first time ever...it all adds up to a solid play on the favorite in this one! We are getting some line value here because people see the Cats were just a .500 team in the regular season and finished only 5th in their conference. However, Grambling finished first in the worst conference in Division 1. Lay the small number here with confidence. MONTANA STATE -3.5

NBA Tuesday Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Denver Nuggets @ 9 ET - Yes the Timberwolves have a cluster of injuries at the big man position. However, the last time these teams met Jokic had a solid game for the Nuggets and yet the Wolves still won the game by 22 points. Outside of Jokic, the Nuggets mostly play a "small ball" lineup which is the same type of lineup Minny will be playing here because of injuries to their bigs. So, the point is that Jokic will again "get his" in this game but I don't see that translating to a huge road win here. Minny is tough at home and this is a key divisional battle and they will not just "lay down" here because they are without Towns and Gobert. In fact, you might even see a more feisty effort from the Wolves here as a result! Look for Minnesota to be aggressive here as it is the wounded dog that often bites the hardest. This is just too many points to give the Timberwolves when at home and hosting the defending champs and a division rival. Playing their first home game in two weeks, Minnesota is absolutely going to make the most of it here! They are getting as many as 7.5 points here as of very early game day morning! We'll take it! MINNESOTA (+)

Rotation #672: NCAA Tuesday Virginia Cavaliers (+) vs Colorado State Rams @ 9:10 ET - Give me the 3 points here. Maybe I have a bit of the old "East Coast bias" but I have seen others that are unbiased do have the ACC as a significantly stronger conference than the Mountain West. Note that the only two teams that Virginia finished behind in the final ACC standings were North Carolina and Duke. Those are two teams rank in the top dozen teams in the nation. Also, the team that won the ACC Tourney (NC State) is a team Virginia should have beaten but inexplicably made a couple key mistakes late that allowed the Wolfpack to tie it up and force OT. It was a gut-wrenching loss but also the Cavs can't wait to get back on the floor to make up for that here. The fact NC State then went and upset North Carolina in much easier fashion after they should have lost outright to Virginia also says a lot. This Cavs team is very well coached and annually has one of the best defenses in the nation. Colorado State is certainly a solid team but they are over-rated here. The top teams in the MWC are only in the #20 to #25 positions in the nation. Also, the Rams finished tied for 6th in the MWC while the Cavaliers were 3rd in the ACC! The Cavaliers play ugly basketball so a lot of guys don't like them. However, this time of year, that ugly defensive style can play hell with opponents and I am grabbing the underdog line value here with an angry Cavs team that is still pissed from that inexcusable loss to NC State. They will not be denied here in my opinion but grab the points for added insurance. VIRGINIA (+)

Rotation #676: NIT Tuesday Providence Friars (-) vs Boston College Eagles @ 7 ET - Yes the Friars are expected to be without leading scorer Carter for this one but this line has fallen too low in my opinion. It is down to a -3 and, even without Carter, the Friars at home are stronger than these Eagles. Also, I feel Providence is one of a handful of teams that is out to prove the Big East was robbed in terms of only 3 Big East teams making the Big Dance. The Friars are hungry to prove they were one of the teams wronged and I expect a very strong performance here at home. Note that is what not that long ago that Boston College had just been obliterated by Pittsburgh and then sat at 15-14 on the season and just 6-12 in ACC games! I know the Eagles then won 4 straight, including 2 in the ACC tourney, before bowing out against Virginia. However, other than the impressive over Clemson, the other 3 wins were against a horrible Louisville team that finished 3-17 in ACC action and a Miami team that slumped badly and lost 10 straight games to the end the season. The point is the Eagles had a helluva great game against the Tigers but I am not sold on a team whose other recent wins were against bad teams considering they were also just 6-12 against conference opposition not too long ago. This Friars team had won 6 of 3 before a loss to Marquette in the Big East tourney and 3 of their last 4 losses were against the Golden Eagles and UConn - both of whom are in the Big Dance of course. Watch the Friars rise up here, even without Carter. PROVIDENCE (-)

Rotation #669: NCAA Tuesday Wagner Seahawks (+) vs Howard Bison @ 6:40 ET - Give me the 3.5 points here. If you watch the talking heads speak about this game or read preview articles you will see many people quoted about Wagner having a 7-man rotation and being short-handed because they are down two key players. Guess what? They played nearly the entirety of the season without those two players. Those two players played a combined 12 games - so an average of 6 games out of 31 on the season. In other words, this is 100% a NON-factor here. Now it would be a factor later in the tourney but there is no "later in the tourney" for either one of these teams. Whether Wagner or Howard advances either one will get blasted by North Carolina Thursday. However, I do like Wagner to advance as they ride the positive momentum of their conference tourney run. Also, most rankings do give a slight edge to the NEC over the MEAC in terms of conference power rankings. I personally feel the edge is bigger. The NEC is a little more significantly stronger than the MEAC in my opinion. I am well aware that Wagner had a sub-par regular season but they had to beat the top 3 teams in their conference (36-12 combined NEC record!) to get here! As for Howard, they had a ridiculous 3-point shooting effort in beating top seeded Norfolk State in their conference tourney but had the added benefit of their other two games against teams with a combined 13-15 conf record and overall 26-38 record. If they had faced a tougher team after upsetting Norfolk State they would have likely lost. Wagner thinks they are invincible right now. That makes for a dangerous dog. The way these two teams are playing right now, Howard is absolutely no better than Wagner. Also, the Seahawks are allowing just 54 ppg last 4 games. The Bison allowing 71 ppg L4 games. The Hawks stay hot! WAGNER (+)

NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers will take advantage of a Heat team dealing with a myriad of injuries right now. Yes, Philly is still without Joel Embiid but he is back practicing with the team and spirts are up for the Sixers team right now as they know he'll be back sooner rather than the later. Even without Embiid, the Sixers are the overall healthier club in this match-up plus they are at home. Note that Miami is only 4-5 L9 games and here is the kicker to that! One of the wins was against a slumping Jazz team that has lost 12 of 15 games. The other THREE WINS were against a Pistons team that is one of the worst in the league. Beating those teams and winning AT Philly are vastly different things! Even a wounded Sixers team is far superior to the Pistons and the current version of the Jazz. That said, the home team should win this in solid fashion as they take advantage a Heat team that is dealing with too many banged up guys right now. PHILADELPHIA -2

CBB Sunday Illinois Illini -3 or -3.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 3:30 ET - Badgers fought hard and won in OT versus the Boilermakers yesterday as they got the big upset win over Purdue. Their top 3 scorers in yesterday's win (71% of the points) played an average of 37 minutes as the game went to OT also. Now playing again today and having battled so hard to make it this far, this is the game where the juice runs out for Wisconsin. Their 3-point shooting was so hot but keeps cooling off game by game as their legs are starting to get tired. Purdue did not shoot as well as usual yesterday and also lost the turnover battle badly. Give some credit to the Badgers for sure but the Boilers caused their own demise as well. Don't look for Illinois to be so generous! This Illini team gets to the foul line well and Wisconsin had all kinds of foul trouble versus Purdue yesterday. Hats off to the Badgers for still being able to grind out the win but their big run ends here. The Illini create match-up problems with guys like Damask and Shannon just like they did in the recent regular season meeting. Getting this line in the -3 range is a great value. ILLINOIS -3 or -3.5

CBB Sunday Temple Owls +7.5 vs UAB Blazers @ 3:15 ET - These teams just met before the conference tourney started and Temple was embarrassed in Philly as the Blazers scored 100 points! UAB shot a ridiculous 61% from the field including 56% from 3-point land! Teams don't forget about home losses like that. The Owls have since won 5 straight games and just knocked off two of the top three teams in the conference as they beat Florida Atlantic and Charlotte. Temple underachieved in the regular season - to say the least - but they are truly battling hard now and have jelled as a team at the perfect time of year - mid-March! I am not saying they get the outright win here but I do expect them to have another very strong game and that should be good enough for at least the cover here! They have allowed just 62 ppg in their 4 games in this tourney so far. UAB has allowed 78 ppg in their last 8 games. The Blazers are the stronger overall team but the Owls are playing confident defensive-minded basketball right now and this game should go down to the wire. Grab the generous points and this one has upset potential as well. TEMPLE +7.5

Rotation #634: CBB Saturday North Carolina Tar Heels -9 vs NC State Wolfpack @ 8:30 ET - Give the Wolfpack plenty of credit of course as a win is a win and they fought hard yesterday. However, it took some late mistakes from Virginia including a key turnover and then a bank-shot 3 at the buzzer to even force OT in their eventual win over the Cavaliers. I also expect the Wolfpack to be worn out here. This is going to be their 6th game in 8 days! Conversely, North Carolina is playing just its 3rd game in 7 days! Not only is this a huge rest edge for the Tar Heels, they are absolutely the superior team in all facets of the game. I do not often lay big points in spread sports but there are exceptions. In this case, the rest factor plus the talent factor are hugely in favor of UNC. Also, the Wolfpack went just 9-11 in ACC games this season while the Tar Heels went 17-3. While 9 points may seem like a lot, half of NC State's losses this season were by 9 or more points. Given that plus the fact they are facing one of the top teams in the nation (and a rival that won't hold back given the chance to rout) and the fact they are very tired after all the basketball over the past week, this one gets ugly and UNC pulls away for blowout win by 15+ points. NORTH CAROLINA -9

Rotation #610: CBB Saturday Purdue Boilermakers -6 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 1 ET - Live by the three, die by the three. Today is the day Wisconsin's Big Ten Tourney run dies. 3rd game in 3 days. The legs start to give out. That is very important in 3 point shooting. The Badgers have been ridiculous from three point land in each of their first two games in the tourney. Now they face a Purdue team that shut them down from downtown in each of their two meetings this season. I also like the fact that the Boilermakers faced a tough Spartans team yesterday. Gutting out a gutsy win over a Tom Izzo-coached team is never easy come tourney time. Keep in mind the Badgers played a struggling Maryland team and then Northwestern so far in this tourney. I know the Wildcats finished ahead of Michigan State this season in the Big Ten but when you factor in the Tom Izzo effect, the Boilers arguably faced the tougher match-up yesterday. Give credit to the Badgers for a solid run but I could see their 3-point shooting really drop off here (just like the regular season meetings) especially with some weary legs. The Boilers have a rest edge and they are fully focused on becoming the first team in 24 years to win both the Big Ten regular season title and Big Ten tourney in the same season. Look for big man Zach Edey to have another huge game and the fact their largest deficit was only 1 point and they led by as many as 12 points yesterday has led to value here considering they only won the game by 5 points. That is keeping this line a little low and I look for the Boilers to roll by double digits given all of the above. PURDUE -6 

Rotation #857: CBB Friday Colorado Buffaloes -1.5 -115 or money line -130 vs Washington State Cougars @ 10:30 ET in Pac-12 Tourney at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV - Love the line movement on this one. Colorado opened favored by about 2.5 then came down to 1.5 and now appears headed back up. First off, why were the Buffaloes favored in the first place even though Washington State is ranked and the Buffaloes are unranked? Exactly! Odds makers know! Why did the line come down? Sharps wanted to move it down! Why is it now going back up? Sharps took advantage of the lower number and the bigger bets are starting to come in. In addition to all these betting and market factors, I also like Colorado here because they are playing their best basketball of the season at the right time. The Buffaloes have won 7 straight games! The Cougars have two recent losses and they were to Pac-12 teams that finished the regular season with a combined 17-23 record in conference games! Colorado is the better team offensively including at the free throw line. That could be key in a projected tighter game. Though this game may indeed be tight I just do not see the Buffaloes being denied here. Colorado playing with such confidence right now. The Buffs were tested yesterday by a solid Utah team while the Cougars took advantage of facing an inconsistent Stanford team that ended up finishing their year on a 3-9 run. Don't let this line fool you. The Buffaloes are favored with good reasoning here as noted above. COLORADO -1.5 -115 or money line -130

Rotation #841: CBB Friday: Providence Friars +5 vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 8 ET in Big East Tourney at Madison Square Garden - The Friars are off a great win over Creighton yesterday after an easy win over a horrible Georgetown team Wednesday. Yes it is a 3rd game in 3 days for Providence but they do catch Marquette off an intense physical and emotional grinder of a win over Villanova yesterday that did require OT. That said, this one sets up well for an upset. Will grab the points here just in case but the Friars enter this game with a lot of confidence and they actually had 70 shots from the field yesterday compared to just 58 for the Bluejays. In other words, the win was not a fluke and they took great care of the ball as well and that had an edge in the turnover department for the Friars as well. Providence has won 6 of 9 games and Marquette is at a disadvantage in the rebounding department also. Prior to yesterday's OT win over Villanova, the Golden Eagles were on a 6-6 run in games played away from home. Also, the only 2 wins that were blowout wins were against DePaul and Georgetown - the two worst teams in the Big East. The other 4 wins were by an average margin of 4.5 ppg an none of those wins by more than 6 points. Don't be surprised if this one goes to the wire and, though I expect an outright upset, we'll grab the points just in case the Friars fall a bucket or so short. PROVIDENCE +5

Rotation #782: CBB Thursday Colorado Buffaloes -3.5 vs Utah Utes @ 11:30 ET - Excellent line value here as the Buffaloes have won 6 in a row and have the rest edge here too as they have been off for a few days while the Utes were in action yesterday. Utah, prior to yesterday's win had lost 8 of 12 games and though they beat the Buffaloes by 5 earlier this season they also lost at Colorado by 24 in the rematch. This Buffs team playing with a lot of confidence right now and has all the key edges going in their favor here. Utah started the season 11-2 but then went 7-11 the rest of the way before this conference tourney. Colorado, on the other hand, has won 11 of 15 games since starting the season 11-5. Two teams that truly have been trending in opposite directions. Also, the Buffaloes finally got the much needed confidence boost by winning some road games. They needed that and this will also help them in his neutral site game in Vegas. COLORADO -3.5

NBA Thursday Portland Trail Blazers +10.5 vs New York Knicks @ 10 ET - Of course the Knicks should win this game SU but I don't see them winning this in a complete blowout. This is their first game on this west coast swing after playing 4 straight home games. Also, the tougher games on this road trip are up next with facing the Kings, Warriors and Nuggets. I just can't see New York being too excited nor too focused on facing this Blazers team they already beat handily two months ago in New York! That said, this spot could be a bit tricky for the Knicks. The Trail Blazers have gone 4-4 SU L8 games. Granted, the wins were against teams that are not on the level of this New York team. However, just getting some SU wins is a confidence boost for a Blazers team having a tough season. Also, some of the players they are missing are close to coming back as well. That is also a positive in terms of creating good vibes and positive energy for the team. I look for them to put up a strong fight on their home floor here and this game will be decided by single digits. PORTLAND +10.5

Rotation #734: CBB Thursday Virginia Cavaliers -4.5 vs Boston College Eagles @ 9:30 ET - Eagles playing for 3rd straight night. Virginia has huge rest edge. Cavaliers won the first meeting even though it was at Boston College. Now this neutral site game in the tourney (in DC) truly is a location that favors the Cavs. They have stellar defense and did score 72 points in 2 of their last 3 games so it gives them some added confidence on the offensive end. On the defensive end there is no shortage of confidence for this tough Cavaliers team. Look for them to use that tenacious defense to pull away as this game goes on and they wear down a tired Eagles team playing a 3rd straight day. The revenge angle for BC that many in the market will buy into is helping to keep this line lower than it should be. We take advantage! VIRGINIA -4.5

Rotation #746: CBB Thursday Seton Hall Pirates +4.5 @ St John's Red Storm @ 2:30 ET - I know many might look at this and say it is a home game for St John's and it is true that the Red Storm do play home games at Madison Square Garden too. However, Seton Hall is from the NYC metro area as well and MSG is essentially right between the campuses of these two schools. Also, the Pirates won both regular season meetings so many people will be looking at the double revenge factor as well. The result of all this in my opinion is that St John's is getting too much support in the betting markets and we are getting plenty of value here on the underdog side catching 4.5 points! It is true that the Red Storm wrapped up the season winning 5 in a row. However, 3 of the 5 wins were against the 2 Big East teams that finished the season with a combined 2-38 record in the Big East. I am not saying St John's is a bad team or that Seton Hall is an elite team. I am just saying that these teams are close to equal in my opinion and I would say the Pirates are the slightly better team. The Red Storm are simply over-rated here and I look for the underdogs to make it a rare 3-0 season sweep over St John's but we will grab the points just in case. SETON HALL +4.5

Rotation #679: CBB Wednesday Xavier Musketeers -1.5 vs Butler Bulldogs @ 4 ET - This line is around a 1.5 and I like the Musketeers to respond in this opportunity at right back revenge. They just lost at Butler in the Bulldogs regular season finale and Xavier can get the best kind of payback right here in the Big East Tourney! Also, the Musketeers did win the first game when the teams met in Cincinnati and that was their 2nd straight win in this series. They bounce back here after the loss at Butler. The Musketeers dominated the glass in both meetings this season and they will cut down on their turnovers here in the rematch of the last season 6-point loss. Also, Xavier does a better job of getting to the free throw line than the Bulldogs. In a potentially tight contest I want the better rebounding team, that also thrives on getting to the rack and creating contact to get to the FT line, and that also has revenge on their minds. Great set up here to lay a short number! XAVIER -1.5

Rotation #854 CBB Monday Hofstra Pride -7 vs Stony Brook Seawolves @ 8:30 ET - The Seawolves had to rally multiple times yesterday in an amazing double OT win over Drexel. Not only will this be the 3rd game in 3 days for Stony Brook, their top 5 scorers in yesterday's game scored 87 of their 91 points. Those 5 players averaged 39.4 minutes played. That means you have the guys that scored 96% of their points yesterday and are playing their 3rd game in 3rd days AVERAGED playing a FULL GAME of 40 minutes yesterday. This is a fantastic setup for the more rested Pride team to dominate. Hofstra has won 12 of 15 games and each of their last 6 wins have been by a double digit margin. The Pride did have 4 guys play heavy minutes in yesterday's game but that was their first game in more than a week and they will definitely have the fresher legs here. They pull away as this game goes in and it make it a 7th straight win by a double digit margin. Lay it! HOFSTRA -7

Rotation #822: CBB Sunday Drexel Dragons -3.5 vs Stony Brook Seawolves @ 6 ET - Stony Brook had to play yesterday so this is a big scheduling edge for Drexel as they have been off for a week. Also, the Dragons have won 20 games this season. Compare that to the Northeastern team that the Seawolves beat yesterday - that team now has 20 losses this season. Also, Stony Brook was 20 of 22 from the FT line while Northeastern was 12 of 21 from the FT line. That was the difference in the game which is not saying a whole helluva lot about the Seawolves. This Dragons team has veteran leadership and a deep rotation and they will take advantage of facing Stony Brook in a B2B. Yes this is a neutral site game in DC but this is a bargain line that has moved down on the favorite and I am happy to take advantage of this Dragons team is the stronger team and will advance to the next round of the CAA tourney. They take advantage of having had a double bye heading into this one. DREXEL -3.5

Rotation #774: CBB Saturday Santa Clara Broncos -11.5 vs San Diego Toreros @ 10 ET - Won here with San Diego yesterday but that was more of a play against Pepperdine than a play on the Toreros. The fact is that San Diego won ugly but they will struggle to win ugly here. The Toreros face a Broncos team that has the huge rest edge plus Santa Clara dominated them on the glass in the regular season meetings. The Broncos just have too much and the Toreros will not be able to keep up as the rebounding edge plus points in the paint edge as well as turnover differential should all go in favor of the rested Broncos in this one. I don't often lay big points in hoops or football but sometimes a double digit favorite is screaming for a bet and this is one of those. All the edges belong to the Broncos and they pull away as this game goes on. Lay it! SANTA CLARA -11.5

Rotation #638: CBB Saturday Villanova Wildcats +1.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 2:30 ET - Creighton is a tough team but, for years (and this season is no different) they are much tougher at home than on the road. Now they face a Villanova team that has been playing great defense and is desperate for a win after a road loss at Seton Hall. Back home where they have been playing particularly well, I don't see the Wildcats being denied here. I know the Bluejays have revenge from a home loss to Nova earlier this season but the Cats are still going to prove to be the hungrier team here as their chances at getting into the Big Dance are truly dependent on winning this game. Another key is the defensive play for sure as Villanova, other than a loss at #1 UConn, has allowed only 56 points per game in their other 8 games since the end of January! Creighton is allowing 73.6 points per game since late January. Yes, the Bluejays are the better team offensively but defense and home court matters a lot in this match-up and Creighton is known for struggling with their shooting away from home and this Wildcats team has been playing solid perimeter defense as well. The desperate home club gets it done in this one! VILLANOVA +1.5

Rotation #892: CBB Friday WCC Tourney San Diego Toreros +3 vs Pepperdine Waves @ 9 ET in Las Vegas - The Waves just blasted hapless Pacific last night. Not only is this a B2B spot for Pepperdine but they are just 1-5 SU the last 6 times they are off a win in which they allowed 63 points or less. Note that Lorenzo Romar is out as coach after this season for Pepperdine. Last night they faced a Pacific team that was also without its head coach (and was already released from the program) and so the Tigers used an associate head coach. It was a disaster for Pacific and it looked like they did not know what they were doing and they did not even challenge things defensively. It was an embarrassment. So the Waves now going from facing a Pacific team that was 0-16 in WCC action this season and did not even want to be in the tournament (apparently) to now facing a San Diego team that will come to play here. This will be Romar's final game in my opinion. He enjoyed the demolition last night but now reality sets back in. San Diego is not a great team but they are solid and the Toreros won 7 of their last 11 games. 3 of those 4 losses were against 3 of the top teams in the conference. Certainly Pepperdine does not fall into that category. That said, take advantage of the line value being offered here as the Waves won 102 to 43 last night and that has inflated this line. SAN DIEGO +3

Rotation #751: College Basketball Thursday Colorado Buffaloes +3 @ Oregon Ducks @ 9 ET - This line opened up at a pick'em and now the Ducks, unsurprisingly, are all the way up to a 3 point favorite. For one thing, the Buffaloes might have Cody Williams and Julian Hammond back for this one. Additionally, even if they do not, Colorado has been winning without Hammond the last 3 games and Williams the last 2 games. They have won 4 straight games and have plenty of momentum here. I know about the home/road difference for the Buffaloes but so do the oddsmakers and this line was set this way for a reason! Now we get exceptional value after the line move. Note that Jermaine Couisnard just scored 39 for the Ducks but Oregon still lost by 20. Yes that was against Arizona but it still says a lot about this team. When the Ducks faced Colorado earlier this season Couisnard had only 11 points and the Ducks lost by 16 points! The point is that the Buffaloes, even though on the road for this rematch, have proven they match up well with this Ducks team. Additionally, Colorado has won 2 of last 5 road games including most recent one so they are starting to get a little confidence going even when traveling. The overall 4-game winning streak also helps in that regard. The Ducks loss at Colorado started an overall slide for them that they have really not bounced back from. Oregon started this season 13-3 and, ever since, has a record of 6-7. Also, the Ducks have only split (2-2) in their last 4 home games. Grab the road dog in this one! COLORADO +3

Rotation #671: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats +1.5 @ Seton Hall Pirates @ 6:30 ET - The Wildcats are off a win at Providence and are playing their best basketball of the season. Their defense has been fantastic. Villanova has won 5 of 6 games and, other than a loss at #1 ranked UConn, has allowed only 55 points per game in their other 7 games since then end of January. They blasted Seton Hall in that stretch so, of course, the Pirates want revenge. However, the Wildcats had great defense from Moore on the top player for Seton Hall and I expect a repeat of that here. Moore is known for his defense and he seems much healthier now than he was early this season. Also, the team as a whole is playing their best D of the season. The Pirates are at home here but are only 3-2 SU L5 home games and 2 of the wins were against the Hoyas and Blue Demons. Note that Georgetown and DePaul are a combined 2-36 SU in Big East action this season. Don't get me wrong, Seton Hall is a solid club but this game Wednesday is huge in terms of Big Dance scenarios for each of these teams and I am backing the team playing better defense that also has some match-up edges. Those match-up edges are so important in basketball. Seton Hall has allowed about 75 ppg their last 7 games. Even if you take out the B2B bad losses to Creighton and UConn, the Pirates have allowed 69 ppg their other 5 games since the end of January. We are into March and it is the time of year when defense is a key to making a big run. Tourney time is not quite yet here for the major conferences but it already feels like it is here and that will be the type of pressure involved in this game. That said, give me the better defense and the team with more confidence entering this match-up based on recent results. This one is all Wildcats. VILLANOVA +1.5

Rotation #666: CBB Horizon League Tourney Tuesday Milwaukee Panthers -11.5 vs Detroit Titans @ 8 ET - Detroit is getting a little attention in the marketplace and I get it. It is a new opportunity for the Titans after a disgusting 1-30 season. Also, they are off a tight loss to Oakland and the Golden Grizzlies are the top team in the Horizon. However, Oakland had already wrapped up the Horizon League regular season title so they were very lax defensively in that game. Detroit took advantage and shot uncharacteristically well. Now Detroit faces a fired up team in Milwaukee and the Panthers will be intense defensively. The Panthers averaged scoring about 84 ppg when at home this season and the Titans averaged only about 65 ppg when on the road this season. Don't be surprised when the hosts win this by 20+ points! They have the talent edge, the defensive edge, the rebounding edge and home court as well. Before that road loss by just 5 points to Oakland, 14 of last 18 road defeats for Detroit came by at least a dozen points! The Panthers wrapped up the regular season on a 5-1 run and blasted Green Bay 90-69 in their season finale. They carry that moment right into this game. MILWAUKEE -11.5 

Rotation #306662: ASUN Tourney CBB Monday: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -4 vs Queens University Royals @ 7 ET - This is a conference tournament where the team with the better record gets it on their home court. But I am going to start with talking about road games. The reason is because you can oftentimes tell the better team by how they perform on the road. In this case, on the surface, you have two very evenly matched teams by looking at records. But if you look at how the Eagles performed on the road (including in losses!) compared to how the Royals performed on the road, you will see that Florida Gulf Coast was the stronger team on the road. Not only that, as noted above, now Queens University has to go on the road for this one while the Eagles are on their home floor. It all adds up to solid line value here as Florida Gulf Coast should take this by 5 or more points. The Eagles last 8 home games, and 11 of 13 this season, all were decided by a margin of 5 or more points. I also like the fact that FGC started 3-9 this season but then went 11-8 the rest of the way. Conversely, Queens started the season 6-5 but have since gone 7-13 the rest of the way. Also, 14 of the Royals 18 losses were by 6 or more points this season. While Queens just became division 1 in the summer of 2022, the Eagles have been Division 1 for more than dozen years and have been to the Big Dance 3 times. I like the home team for all the reasons noted above and I also like them for their better defensive play including key hustle stats like steals and blocks in their most recent match-up. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -4

Rotation #852: CBB Sunday Colorado Buffaloes -13 vs Stanford Cardinal @ 9 ET - Colorado has been rolling offensively heading into this game and they are 15-1 SU at home this season. Stanford enters this game off 5 straight losses and with the Cardinal offense quite sluggish. The Cardinal just will not be able to keep up here. The Buffaloes know they are on the bubble and this is also their final home game of the season. You know that kind of effort that will result in for Colorado ... it will absolutely be an intense effort from the hosts here and they pull away for a win by about 20. One of Stanford's better shooters dealing with a wrist injury so that is not helping matters either as the Cardinal slide toward an ugly finish to the season. Not including OT points of course, the Buffaloes have averaged 83 ppg last 3 games - all wins. The Cardinal have averaged just 66 points in their last 5 games - all losses. I do not normally lay big points but this one is screaming blowout rout! Lay it! COLORADO -13

Rotation #801: CBB Saturday Gonzaga Bulldogs +2.5 @ St Mary's Gaels @ 10 ET - The Gaels already wrapped up the #1 seed for the WCC Tourney that is coming up. They should also have locked up a spot in the NCAA Tourney as well. That said, this game is not nearly as important to St Mary's as it is to Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have not been quite as strong as they usually are but they still showed what they can do in their most recent game with a blowout win courtesy of a huge 2nd half and that was on the road also. Now here they are out for revenge after losing at home 64-62 to the Gaels earlier this season. One of the big keys that night for St Mary's was Joshua Jefferson as he had 25% of their points with 16 points plus had 11 rebounds. He is now out for the season. Further limiting their depth in the paint is 7-footer Harry Wessels is out. The Bulldogs will take advantage here in the paint and they have big-time scorers all over the floor. Yes, the Gaels will try to slow them down but this game belongs to Gonzaga. I love the fact moved from the Bulldogs being a small favorite to now being an underdog of more than a bucket. There is a reason the line was originally set the way it was and the Bulldogs are all set for revenge here. GONZAGA +2.5

NBA Saturday Denver Nuggets Pick -110 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:40 ET - The Lakers have been playing well at home this season including 4 straight wins. However, the Nuggets have won 5 straight overall and are the much stronger team in this match-up. They just beat Miami in most recent game even though Murray was only able to play 14 minutes. Even if he does not play tonight I still like Denver in this spot. But don't be surprised if he does suit up for facing the Lakers here. The Nuggets have 3 straight wins over solid teams in their 5-game run. Although the Lakers have won 4 straight at home, the last 3 wins were against the Wizards, Pistons and Spurs. Those are the 3 worst teams in the NBA with a combined record of 30-149 on the season! Now they face a 40-19 Denver team that is one of the top teams in the NBA and the defending champs. The Nuggets have beaten the Lakers 3 straight time and in both match-ups this season and now they make it 4 in a row and get the season 3-game sweep over this over-rated LA bunch. DENVER Pick -110

Rotation #733: CBB Saturday Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Duke Blue Devils @ 6 ET - This is a revenge spot for Virginia. The last time they met Duke it was not just any game, it was the ACC Championship Game last March. They lost the game by 10 but it was a 4-point game with under a minute to go. The Cavaliers had a rough shooting effort in that game and that was the difference but they proved once again that they are capable of slowing down the Blue Devils offensive production. Duke comes into this one hot but look at what they have done against other strong ACC teams, like Virginia, this season. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina, they went 1-1 against Wake Forest (and the win was by 8 points) and they did beat Clemson but only by 1 point. They did crush Syracuse but split against Pitt including losing here at home to the Panthers. This Cavaliers team has not forgotten the ACC Final from a year ago and they play solid defense and the offense, led by playmaker Reece Beekman, looked really strong earlier this week in winning on the road at Boston College. Don't be surprised if this one goes to the wire and I feel we have exceptional value here with such a strong defense getting huge points in this revenge match. Remember too that North Carolina already beat Duke this season and that is the same UNC team that Virginia lost too by 10 but trailed by only 5 with under a minute to go. I just feel this line is absolutely inflated when you consider the Blue Devils performance against solid ACC teams this season. VIRGINIA (+)

Rotation #601: CBB Saturday Villanova Wildcats +2.5 @ Providence Friars @ Noon ET - This one has made a big move toward Providence as Villanova opened as the small favorite here. I understand the move because the Friars have the home court edge here but also feel the odds makers had this one right. The Wildcats have been playing great defense. Other than a loss to a UConn team that is one of the best teams in the nation, Nova has allowed only 54 ppg in their other 6 games since the beginning of February. Villanova won 5 of those 6 games. They'll win this one too! Providence has lost 4 of last 8 games and allowed 77 points per game in their last 6 games since losing 68 to 50 at Villanova. Grab the better defense and the points here in a key game for Big Dance hopes. VILLANOVA +2.5

Rotation #843: CBB Thursday Gonzaga Bulldogs -3.5 @ San Francisco Dons @ 11 PM ET - Unless I missed something, Gonzaga has now beaten San Francisco 28 games in a row in regular season and WCC Tourney action combined. February of 2012 is the last time the Dons knocked off the Bulldogs! Yes, second-placed Gonzaga has season finale with first-placed St Mary's (14-0 in WCC) on deck but this game against 3rd placed San Francisco is more important! Wait a second...how can that be? Well the Bulldogs are not going to catch the Gaels for 1st place in the division but they could lose out on 2nd place to the Dons should they lose this game! Also, of those 28 consecutive wins, only ONE was by less than FOUR points and the current line on this game is 3.5 points. Yes, San Francisco has had a great season but they have 3 losses in the WCC but guess who beat them? St Mary's TWICE and Gonzaga ONCE already this season. The point is that the Dons have not yet proven they can beat the best of the best in this conference! That said, I am happy to put these streaks to the test because the Bulldogs are also on the road here which will help insure the proper focus. They need this game. They know they slip into a tie with the Dons in the WCC should they lose this game. I also like the fact this line opened up in the -5 range but has dropped since then. Lay the short number and know you are taking a team that has absolutely dominated this series for a dozen years! GONZAGA -3.5

Rotation #747 CBB Wednesday Virginia Cavaliers +1.5 @ Boston College Eagles @ 9 ET - The Cavaliers enter this game off B2B losses. Virginia's most recent road game was a disaster at Virginia Tech as the Hokies took that one by a 75-41 final! Those are the kind of losses you don't forget and this is the Cavs first opportunity on the road since that ugly loss in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers enter this one off B2B losses and that is is certainly noteworthy as they have not lost 3 straight games in 3 years! Virginia is on a 5-0 / 100% PERFECT RUN the last 5 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games since that instance in Feb of 2021. You know Tony Bennett is going to have his guys ready for this game and we get line value because it is at Chestnut Hill. Yes, Boston College is solid at home but they have also lost to stronger ACC teams here and Virginia is one of the top teams in this conference. Also, the Cavs lost their most recent visit here so they want payback here. While the Eagles are the much stronger team offensively, the defense of Virginia is one of the best in the nation year in and year out under Bennett. The low total posted on this game by the odds makers tells you they expect the same thing I do. That is the fact that Virginia will be able to control the tempo here. If the Cavs get that type of low-scoring game they want they come out on top more often than not. Look for that to be the case again here as they bounce back off rare B2B losing games to take that aforementioned multi-year run to a perfect 6-0! VIRGINIA +1.5

Rotation #631: Tuesday 10* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Clemson Tigers @ 7 ET - Though the Panthers are off a win, they lost their prior road game badly so they will be looking to make up for that here. Also, prior to that road loss, they were on a 6-2 SU run in road games. Also, the Tigers are off a home win versus Florida State but were just 3-4 SU prior to this in their 7 most recent home games. The point is that home court is always baked into the lines but, in this case, neither one of these teams has met the traditional home/road dichotomy factors. So we get a little extra value here with the big points available for Pittsburgh. Also the Panthers lost at home to Pittsburgh earlier this season so this is a revenge game for Pitt as well. This is a huge game in terms of the Big Dance hopes for each and I am looking for a very tight game decided by a slim margin. Possible Panthers upset here given their road success this year so having the big points - currently 7.5 as of 7 hours before tipoff is certainly a huge value as well. The Panthers are the better team defensively and they will be fired up after losing their most recent road game by 33 points at Wake Forest. Good teams don't forget defeats like that and this Pitt team is strong. Their other two road losses before that were by an average margin of just 6 points apiece. PITTSBURGH (+)

NBA Monday Sacramento Kings (-) vs Miami Heat @ 10:10 ET - This is a revenge game for the Kings after they lost at Miami 115 to 106 on the final day of January. In that game, Butler and Richardson scored nearly half the points (55) and neither are playing tonight. Also, two other starters - Herro and Rozier - are questionable tonight. Herro had 14 points (plus 8 rebounds and 8 assists) and Rozier had 10 assists in that game. With a much more winnable game tomorrow at Portland and Butler coming back tomorrow, one has to wonder if the Heat might be very conservative with their injury situation here rest Herro and Rozier too. Even if those guys play they are for sure missing Butler and Richardson. I just don't think Miami has enough to hang around here despite the favorable scheduling situation. Yes the Heat have been off and Kings in a B2B after the big divisional win over the Clippers down in LA. However, prior to a 4 point loss in most recent game, 11 of last 12 Miami losses have come by 8 or more points! Those dozen losses by an average of 14 points! So unless you think the very short-handed Heat win this outright, is there really any value in the points? In this case the odds say no and I expect Kings to roll by double digits as they have just too much offense for Miami in this one. The number is currently as low as a 7 as of 16 hours before tipoff! SACRAMENTO (-)

Rotation #889: CBB Monday Baylor Bears (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 9 ET - The road team has won each of the last 3 meetings. That includes a road win for the Frogs at Baylor in TRIPLE OT four weeks ago. The Bears are out for revenge here and they have won 3 in a row at TCU so being on the road for the rematch is not a big deal. These campuses are less than 100 miles apart. The Horned Frogs have lost 3 of 6 and the 3 wins have come against teams that are a combined 15-27 in Big 12 action this season. Baylor is off an OT loss to a Houston team that is one of the top teams in the country. The Bears are now off tough B2B losses but against tough teams and Baylor had won 5 of 6 prior to that. Also, 3 of those 5 wins were against teams that all are now at least .500 on the season in Big 12 action. In fact, those 3 teams are a combined 59-22 on the season overall. Those 3 wins TCU had were against teams with a combined overall record that is currently 41-40 on the season. I respect the Horned Frogs but love the road trending in these match-ups and the hunger of Baylor coming off that OT loss Saturday! TCU has home losses to Iowa State and Texas already this season and you can add this determined Bears squad to the list after this game goes final. But we will grab the available points - currently 2.5 as of 14 hours before tipoff - just in case though I do not expect to need them. BAYLOR (+)

Rotation#815: CBB Sunday Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Noon ET - This line opened up around a pick'em but is now up to as high as a 2.5 as of 4 and 1/2 hours before tipoff. Of course the markets are all over Rutgers here at home at the low number but why do you think this line was set near a pick'em? Were the odds makers unaware that the Scarlet Knights were at home for this game where they have been strong this season? Of course not! The point is that the odds makers look at this one the same way I do. Maryland is the better team even though they are behind them in the Big Ten standings. This is a revenge game and the Terps get payback for a horrific shooting effort from beyond the arc in the first meeting. Yes Rutgers has a solid defense but so do the Terrapins! Payback game in a chance to move up the Big Ten standings and leapfrog the Scarlet Knights. 10* MARYLAND (+)

Rotation #769: College Basketball Saturday Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ 8 ET - As I mentioned in prior write-ups on the Wildcats, they have truly bought into improved defensive play and are doing key aspects of the game well like rebounding well and hustling and forcing turnovers. That, of course, does not mean they beat the #1 team in the nation and defending champion Huskies at Connecticut. But it does mean they hang around in this game and we get key line value here because this line is up near a DOZEN points but when these teams met at Villanova - a 1 point win for Huskies - UConn was a very small favorite. Now they are a little inflated here in my opinion because of coming off the loss. Keep in mind, the Huskies are off a loss which will have many thinking bounce back here but sometimes a team that is so use to winning does not respond as aggressively off a rare loss. After their other two losses this season the Huskies did win their next game each time but by an average of just 7.5 points as a victory margin. The Wildcats have allowed just 55 ppg in their last 5 games! That is not an accident folks, they really have emphasized defense and that won't stop here. Now, of course, the Huskies are a great team but they are over-valued here in a game that will be tight because the Wildcats will continue their tenacious D and they have older players that know how to rise to the occasion in a big game like this. They will not be intimidated. VILLANOVA (+)

Rotation #718: College Basketball: Saturday Pittsburgh Panthers (-) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 5:30 ET - The Panthers are in a great spot here. Not only are they off that ugly loss at Wake Forest after winning 5 straight games and 7 of last 8, Pittsburgh also has revenge on their minds here for added motivation. While it may seem like a meaningless game from year ago it is not forgotten. The Panthers were 12-3 and in first place in the ACC at the time and Virginia Tech was just 5-10 but the Hokies got the victory that day. Now Pittsburgh can bounce back at home off the ugly loss plus get revenge for that defeat last year in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is just 1-7 on the road this season. We get line value here with the Panthers because Wake Forest was on fire with their shooting when they blasted Pitt earlier this week. Take advantage of the value here. PITTSBURGH (-)

CBB Friday 10* Top Play Akron Zips (-) vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 6 ET - These are nearby rivals and this is always a big game as a result. That said, you might think Kent State is the revenge play here because they lost the most recent meeting at home this season. However, last season Akron had lost its final regular season game (in OT) at Kent State and then also had their season end just a week later when the Golden Flashes knocked the Zips out of the conference tourney! In other words, Akron still views this match-up as including some unfinished business. Also, the Zips are coming off a loss at Toledo which makes this home game extra important in the battle that Akron is in with the Rockets - also playing tonight - for the top spot in the MAC! Kent State is only a .500 team this season and they are a game under .500 in the MAC. Akron is definitely the stronger team and the much better defense and they improve on their 11-2 MAC season record. The Zips have gone a PERFECT 4-0 off a loss ever since that early season 3-game losing streak. Not only that, Akron won all 4 of those games by double digits. Look for the Zips to take that run to 5-0 here with another double digit victory. This line, as of 8 hours before tipoff, is in the 7.5 range and is a strong value here. 10* AKRON (-)

Rotation #769: CBB Thursday Ohio State Buckeyes (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 8 ET - Off the upset of the Boilermakers, under normal circumstances, Ohio State should be faded here. However, this is anything but normal circumstances! The Buckeyes have had a down season and so they made a rare late-season coaching change. The assistant that took over here had already been at OSU for a few years plus is a long-time guy in terms of Ohio roots both for him and his entire family. The Buckeyes are showing they want to rally around this and are playing hard. There is a reason this line opened up low and then shot up to 4 but is already back to a 3.5 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. The sharps see the same thing I am seeing here too. The fact is the Golden Gophers had lost 6 of 9 before their win by double digits over Rutgers and now lets take a look at that victory. The Scarlet Knights actually had 13 more field goal attempts than Minny but they were done in by poor shooting that night while the Gophers were on fire both inside and outside the arc. Rutgers had more points in the paint plus the Golden Gophers had nearly twice as many turnovers. The point is that the box score proves it was a phony final. It is helping to give us some market value here as there was nothing phony about the Buckeyes win over Purdue! Love the fact that OSU had just 6 turnovers in that game too while the Boilermakers had 14. We get solid line value here as many will be playing Minny and the revenge angle here but this Buckeyes team is rejuvenated. OHIO STATE (+)

Rotation #682 CBB Wednesday Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7 ET - This one is set up perfect as Oklahoma State off a rare big upset win as they beat BYU this past weekend plus they have a huge revenge game with rival Oklahoma on deck this weekend. Also, the Cowboys are on the road where they are 0-7 SU this season! The average margin of defeat in those games is 14 points! They are now in the wrong place at the wrong time as, even though Cincinnati is off a road win, the Bearcats are not happy at all about their two most recent home games. Those were both losses on their home floor (though they faced two tough ranked teams) and so now the Cats will take out their home court payback on a weak Cowboys team that always struggles away from home. This is a rare case where I have hesitation in laying the big number. Yes this one is a -10 as of 7 hours before tipoff but the Bearcats are destined to roll to a rout in this one. Keep in mind the Cats home schedule in Big 12 has been brutal with facing ranked teams in 6 of 7 games. They take full advantage of a rare reprieve here. CINCINNATI (-)

Rotation #659 CBB Wednesday Illinois Illini (-) at Penn State Nittany Lions @ 6:30 ET - This one is set up perfect as Illinois was favored over the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten tourney last season yet lost. The Illini ended up losing all 3 meetings with Penn State last season. You think Illinois has forgotten something like this? Of course not! Adding to the value here is the Nittany Lions are without Kanye Clary. He was their leading scorer and, arguably, their best player this season. He is gone for the season and will be entering the transfer portal. How did it effect the Lions so far? Well, they went on the road and got blasted at Nebraska in the first game without him again. He had been playing sparingly of late and the result of that was being reflected on the scoreboard as well! When he has played less than 10 minutes or missed a game entirely, the Nittany Lions have lost all 4 games and all defeats were by at least a dozen points! Penn State, overall, enter this game having lost 3 straight. Now they face a revenge-minded Illinois team that has won 7 of 9 games and, schematically, matches up very well with PSU on both ends of the floor. That means I can describe this match-up with two words truly...Road Rout! The line is 7.5 as of 6 hours before tipoff. Lay it! ILLINOIS (-)

CBB Tuesday Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 9 ET - This line is in the 6.5 range as of 14 hours before tipoff. Wake Forest is solid but they are still just 5-6 L11 games and also 2 of their last 5 home wins have been by 4 or less points. Now they are laying more than a half dozen points to a Pittsburgh team that has proven to be ultra tough on the road this season. Not only have the Panthers won 5 straight overall and 7 of their last 8 overall, lets talk about their play away from home. Pittsburgh is 7-2 in their last 9 games away from home (one was neutral site) and 1 of the 2 losses was by just 4 points! These are road records we are talking about ladies and gentlemen...Pitt has traveled very well this season! Also, 3 of the 4 recent ones were at Duke, NC State and Virginia. Those 3 teams have an average of 19 wins on the season and the Panthers won at their venue! Yes, the Demon Deacons have revenge for a loss at Pitt earlier this season but WF is off huge games versus Duke and Virginia plus has the revenge match-up with big bad Duke on deck! I would not be surprised to see Wake struggle some here in this spot and nothing comes easy against this Pitt team. They are scrappy and hang around in games and the points are just too much here. Wake has 7 wins since the calendar turned the page to 2024 but only 4 of them (out of 13 games!) have been WF victories by more than a margin of 6 points. Excellent underdog value here. PITTSBURGH (+)

CBB Tuesday Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Butler Bulldogs @ 6:30 ET - Villanova has flipped a switch since an inexcusable loss in double-OT at Butler in late January. The Wildcats never trailed for the entirety of regulation in that game and even led by 14 late in the 2nd half but the game got away from them late and then it was an unreal double-OT loss as the final result. Nova had a "hangover" so to speak (and as to be expected following a soul-crushing loss) and so then lost a tough one in their next game but it was to a tough Top Ten Marquette team. So how did they respond since then? With defense! Villanova has since gone 3-1 and allowed 56 points or less in 4 straight games! You can bet they are going to "D up" again here against the Bulldogs. Yes, Villanova is in a must-win spot and while you can not blindly play "must-win" situations, this one has a lot going for it. The Wildcats are playing to keep their slim NCAA Tourney hopes alive and there has been a buy-in to defense. As for Butler, unlike Villanova, they have not bought into defense! The Bulldogs have allowed more than 70 in all 5 games since the miracle win over the Wildcats. Butler has gone 2-3 in this stretch and allowed an average of 80 ppg in this 5 games stretch! So one team allowing 53.5 ppg last 4 games and playing with revenge and playing at home and they face a team allowing 80 ppg last 5 games. The home team rolls by double digits here and this line is in the -6 range as of 11 hours before tipoff. VILLANOVA (-)

CBB Sunday North Texas Mean Green (+) @ UAB Blazers @ 3 ET - Yes, Jones is out for the Mean Green and Noland has missed 4 straight games. However, Jones has played in only 14 of North Texas' 24 games this season. The bigger current injury is Noland but the odds makers knew it when they set the early opener for this one and that was damn near a pick'em. Of course UAB is at home and with the better record and so every one jumped all over the Blazers. I love fading in cases like this as everyone feels UAB is easy money at home. Even if Noland does not come back for this one (decent chance he is back) I do like the Mean Green plenty here. They are the much better defensive team in comparison with the Blazers. Also, they have revenge from an OT loss at home against the Blazers earlier this season. Also, again the "trap line" theory is in effect here. UAB is undefeated in AAC home games this season and yet this line opened near a pick'em. Note that the Mean Green have lost 3 of last 4 road games. This is another one of those classic "someone knows something" match-ups! I love the extra line value here after the line move and I like having the stronger defense on my side plus in full-on revenge mode! Give me the points but we should not need them. NORTH TEXAS (+)

CBB Sunday Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 1 ET - Too many points as this is in the 8.5 range as of 7 hours before tipoff. The Buckeyes just fired their head coach Tuesday. The assistant is taking over and he has been with the program for years and he comes from a family of players and coaches. They have their footprint in Ohio basketball at various levels in this state. Now, I am not saying the Buckeyes are going to beat the Boilermakers here but I do expect a huge response at home after the firing of the coach. Also, Ohio State has lost each of the last two meetings with Purdue in Columbus by just a bucket each. The Buckeyes have a fair amount of size to at least throw some bodies at Edey. The Boilermakers big man is in a class of his own of course but he won't be able to completely dominate here. Plus, is Purdue starting to wear down a little bit? They were down 10 to Minnesota and had to rally in their most recent game. They did and they won by 8 but that was at home. These Buckeyes have underachieved but they are very talented and I expect them to surprise the Boilers here and absolutely turn this into a back and forth slugfest. Give me the big points. OHIO STATE (+)

Rotation #611 CBB Saturday Creighton Bluejays (-) @ Butler Bulldogs @ 12:30 ET - This is a revenge game for the Bluejays after they were beaten by the Bulldogs in Creighton by a single point in a very tough beat last month. Now the rematch is at Butler so we get a low number, as low as 2.5 as of 7 hours before tipoff, and I will not hesitate to step in on this one. Butler has had a few very tight wins this season and I feel this has inflated their value a bit. Yes they are at home for this one but the face a ranked foe that is out for revenge and that, on a more consistent basis, is the more dangerous team offensively! The stellar offensive production of Creighton is another reason they have won 4 of last 6 road games and one of those two losses was to #1 ranked UConn! That said, we get excellent value here as the Bluejays are the better shooting team and they catch the Bulldogs off losses in 2 of last 3 games. Not only that, Butler's last 5 wins included the crazy tight win over Creighton and a double-OT win over Villanova in a game they NEVER LED in regulation and a 3 point win over Providence in which Butler scored the final 7 points. Butler's other two wins were against DePaul and Georgetown and those two teams are a combined 1-26 in Big East action. My point here is that, against teams other the Blue Demons or Georgetown, in other words teams with pulse - Butler could very easily be on a 7-game losing streak. Their luck runs out here against revenge-minded and ranked Bluejays team. CREIGHTON (-)

CBB Friday Cornell Big Red (-) vs Harvard Crimson @ 6 ET - This line is around an 8.5 as of 12 hours before tipoff and, though I generally do not lay big points in spread sports, when the situation is right I will not hesitate. In this case you have a Cornell team coming off a rare loss. They are a PERFECT 3-0 this season when off a loss and all 3 wins were by a double digit margin. Also, the Big Red are a PERFECT 3-0 this season in home games in Ivy League action and all 3 wins were by a double digit margin! Cornell also is a PERFECT 7-0 this SEASON in home games! The last time they lost a home game was last February when they lost at home to (you guessed it!) Harvard! Now even though they just beat the Crimson at Harvard recently, that does not diminish the fact they want this game badly on their home floor. Cornell remembers the last time they lost at home AND they have much of that same core group intact this season. Conversely, Harvard had big turnover with their program. The Crimson team this season is a shell of the team that it was last season. That is another reason I am projecting the Big Red to roll big in this one and get that home court revenge they still want! This Crimson team is only 3-4 in Ivy League action this season and the 3 wins were against teams that are a combined 5-16 in league action! Also, one of the 4 losses was to a Brown team that is an ugly 6-16 on the season and just 1-5 against the rest of the Ivy League thus far! Additionally, Harvard has lost all 3 games against upper level teams Princeton, Cornell and Yale AND all 3 losses were by more than a dozen points apiece. This one gets ugly as the Big Red get the home court payback they have been waiting for as their last loss at home was to this Crimson team nearly ONE YEAR AGO to the day. Payback time! CORNELL (-)

NBA Thursday Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:30 ET - Current line on this one is 11.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff. With the Grizzlies off a rare win and the Bucks off an ugly home loss, it might seem like the perfect spot to back Milwaukee. However, Memphis has been scrappy even in their losses and I just not see them getting totally blown out at home here in this one. Note that Memphis is only 4-9 SU last 13 games but only two of those defeats were by more than 10 points. In other words, at the current +11.5 being offered here, the Grizzlies would be 11-2 ATS last 13 games! Now look at the Bucks road performances too and, overall, this team has not exactly been setting the world on fire since coach Doc Rivers took over. Note that Milwaukee is only 4-7 SU last 11 road games and 2 of those wins were against a bad Detroit team and NO the Bucks did not win either game by double digits! In fact, Milwaukee's two road wins in this stretch, other than the two over the Pistons, were by 4 against a bad San Antonio team and by 12 at Dallas. So the only truly ultra impressive Bucks road win since the calendar flipped the page to 2024 is just barely above the number posted on this game. I like our chances here when you consider that the win over the Mavericks was the only truly impressive road game in 11 tries for Milwaukee in 2024. Give me the big points here with a scrappy home underdog. 10* MEMPHIS (+)

Rotation #697 CBB Wednesday Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Maryland Terrapins @ 8:30 ET - This line up to a 5.5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff and I feel we have excellent value with this high-scoring Hawkeyes team coming off a huge win. Iowa was WAY DOWN against Minnesota but came all the way back late for the 5-point win. Yes that was at home but the Hawkeyes rougher road record has a lot to do with facing some really tough road games this season. Maryland is solid but they are not on par with a number of teams that Iowa has faced on the road already this season. Also, the Terrapins have lost 3 straight and 7 of 11 and they only have 3 home wins over Big Ten teams this season. One of those was against a Penn State team that is now 12-12 this season and another one was against a Michigan team that is 3-11 in Big Ten action this season and is at the bottom of the standings. The Terrapins won't be easy but I truly feel the Hawkeyes have a great shot at the outright upset in this one. The Terps have averaged only 56 points scored in regulation time of their last 3 games. They also enter this game off a really tough double-OT loss while the Hawkeyes enter this one on a much more positive note after their amazing come from behind win over Minnesota. Unlike the struggling Terps, the Hawkeyes have been scoring just fine in recent games and they are averaging 84 ppg this season and are the much better shooting team in comparison with Maryland. Grab the points here but we likely will not even need them! IOWA (+)

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - Sixers out for revenge here from a 4-point loss at Miami earlier this season. Also, the last time these teams met in Philly, the Heat crushed them by nearly 30 points! The Sixers have a great shot at avenging both these defeats right here right now. The Heat are hurting with a couple of injuries plus Jimmy Butler is out on personal leave. To make this situation even more perfect, the short-handed Heat played last night at Milwaukee. Not only that, they smashed the Bucks! They did it by shooting a ridiculous high-percentage from 3-point land in that one. On a B2B situation and also playing with a shorter bench than usual because of missing 3 players for this one, the Heat will struggle with shooting here and likely also fade as the game goes on. Conversely, the Sixers - though without Embiid and Harris - at least are well-rested here. Also, they will have Kyle Lowry on the floor for this one and the veteran is making his home-coming in Philly and played his college ball at Villanova. Don't be surprised if he plays well in what will be an emotional homecoming game for the veteran. The Sixers have been on a home losing streak but they are getting adjusted now with Payne and Hield already becoming solid contributors and Council has been playing well as a role player. Oubre coming off another solid game and Maxey is an All-Star and this Sixers team now won B2B games including beating a tough Cavaliers team at Cleveland. Now it is time to get the home winning going again and they catch the Heat at the perfect time to get a big home win before the All-Star break. Note that Miami is off a win but had lost 9 of 13 games heading into that one. Yes, the 76ers had struggled recently without Embiid but they are starting to figure things out and have the situational edges in this one plus home court. This line is in the 3.5 range as of early game day morning and this is a bargain number! Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Tuesday Oklahoma City Thunder (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:30 ET - Oklahoma City is laying about 3 points in this one as of 13 hours before tipoff. Overall, as you can tell by the records too, the Thunder are the stronger team. However, the Magic do have the home court edge here. However, what I really like about this play is the fact Orlando has another game on deck against a conference foe, the Knicks tomorrow. Conversely, for the Thunder it is their final game before the break. OKC wants to go into the break with another win! In fact, lets talk about the "another win" theory as it relates to both teams here. The Magic enter this game on a 2-game winning streak but, other than the surprising 9-game winning streak Orlando had earlier this season, they have only had one other 3-game winning streak this season! When the Magic enter a game on exactly a 2-game winning streak they have failed to stretch it 3 games 5 of the 7 times this season! Make that 6 of 8 after this one! The Thunder enter this one off a single win and there has been only one time this entire season they have had just a single standalone win and that was way back in October. In other words, the odds based on season-long trending here certainly favor a Thunder win! Orlando has lost 3 of last 5 games at home against team with a winning record. they are not unbeatable here against quality opposition by any stretch of the imagination. Also, Orlando is just 10-10 SU in non-conference action while the Thunder are 14-4 SU in non-conf action! The better team in the better situation and on the road so the number of points is manageable. Great spot here to take advantage. Lay it! OKLAHOMA CITY (-)

CBB Tuesday Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - The current line as of about 11 hours before game time for this one is in the 6.5 range which means it is go time with this one! The Cavaliers are red hot but the Panthers have been an anomaly this season as they actually have been stronger on the road than at home. Overall, Pittsburgh is playing very well in ACC action of late with 5 wins last 6 games and the lone loss was by 4 points. In terms of games played away from home, Pitt is on a run of 6 wins last 8 games and those two losses away from home were by 8 points and 4 points. The Panthers rarely get blown out and, with a low total posted on this game, you can certainly project this to be a grinder likely decided by a slim margin. Of course the Cavaliers are known for defense but the Panthers do play well defensively and also have solid perimeter defense which is important against the Cavs. At the other end of the floor, the Panthers have some outside shooters that can help draw the Virginia defenders out and open things up a bit more inside. The Panthers match up well with the Cavs and, in fact, beat the Cavaliers last season. That makes this a revenge spot for Virginia. However, the Cavs just beat a Florida State team that was right behind them and now have Wake Forest, also right behind them, on deck. Could easily see the Cavs underestimating Pitt here and this Panthers team rebounds well, has some solid shooters and they play solid defense. This one goes down to the wire and just might end up in another upset which makes the points invaluable. PITTSBURGH (+)

CBB Monday Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) @ Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - Duke is one of the most popular teams in sports betting. Just like the Yankees in MLB and Lakers in NBA and Cowboys in NFL, certain situations can result in excellent line value to go against the Blue Devils. Note that the line on this one already has climbed up a bit and Duke is favored by as many as 7.5 as of 12 hours before tipoff. In my opinion Wake Forest is very close to, if not equal, to the level of the Blue Devils this season. These teams are right next to each other in the ACC standings. Also, Wake Forest has revenge from losing their most recent game against the Blue Devils. That was here at Duke and was a very tight loss just like the prior WF visit here. Though the Demon Deacons do not have a great history they have been competitive against Duke in recent seasons. Look for another tight game here and note the value in the big points as Wake Forest is 16-7 this season and 6 of the 7 losses have been by 7 points or less. In other words, Duke is being asked to do something that only one other team has done in 23 games against Wake this season - that is, beat the Deacons by 8 or more points. I just do not see that happening. When you compare the defensive and offensive stats on these two clubs they are very similar. Yes I know Duke is a tough place to play but the Blue Devils only beat a bad Georgia Tech team here by 5 and beat Clemson by only 1 and also lost to Pittsburgh here. So Duke is far from invincible here this season and the Demon Deacons will take this one to the wire! WAKE FOREST (+)

CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ 3 ET - This is another game where I am fading the line move as this one was around a 5 and worked its way up to a 6.5 as of 5 hours before tipoff. The Hawkeyes are off a loss at Penn State. Iowa just can't seem to stop teams yet Minnesota had a rough shooting performance (5 of 29) from 3-point land in the first meeting this season and they were at Minnesota for that one! That means payback here on the road. I know Iowa has won recent meetings but this is not the Iowa of old. They are just not that good this season and lost to an over-rated Penn State team a few nights ago. They will be lucky to win this one let alone cover the spread. The Golden Gophers know this is their chance to take advantage of an Iowa team that is just not itself right now. The Hawkeyes have lost 4 of 6 since beating Minny. The only 2 wins came against Ohio State and Michigan and those teams are a combined 7-19 SU in Big Ten games this season. The Golden Gophers have won 3 straight in Big Ten action and they came against teams that are currently all at .500 or better in Big Ten games on the season. Everyone will be backing the Hawkeyes at home in this one but I am expecting revenge as the hot team stays hot and puts a ton of pressure on Iowa at home in this one. MINNESOTA (+)

CBB Sunday Seton Hall Pirates (+) @ Villanova Wildcats @ Noon ET - I know Villanova is in a key must win mode but this team is going to be in a helluva battle just to win this game let alone cover. Seton Hall lost both meetings last season but each defeat by just 4 points. That said, this Pirates team is better than that one was and this Wildcats team is worst than that one was! I know the two wins Seton Hall enters this game off of were both against the worst teams in this conference. Still it is a momentum-builder for Seton Hall. Also, the Pirates are 8-4 in Big East action and have beaten UConn, Butler and Marquette plus they lost to Creighton in Triple OT! In other words, this Pirates team can compete with the better teams in the conference and right now Villanova is one of the weaker teams in the conference. Seton Hall also has wins over respectable teams like Providence and St John's. All those teams I just mentioned have at least 14 wins on the season. Villanova is just 5-7 in Big East action and two of those wins against a bad DePaul team. The other 3 wins included one big win over Providence but the other two wins by a margin of 2 or less points against Creighton and Xavier. The point is that it is very hard to justify the Wildcats being favored by 5.5 points in this one. I also love fading line moves and the line has moved the way of Villanova. Give me the big points which are now near the half-dozen mark. SETON HALL (+)

Rotation #824: College Hoops Saturday Stanford (-) vs USC @ 10 ET - The Cardinal have only allowed more than 89 points once this season in a loss and that was at USC. The Trojans have since gone 1-7 and their only win was against the team (Oregon State) they share the Pac-12 basement with. USC is having a rough run and a down season and they are in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Stanford also lost to the Trojans last season so this is a double revenge spot. Also, the Cardinal are normally strong at home but they are coming off a tough home loss in which they had a rough shooting night and their opponent hit 11 threes. But that was against a hot UCLA team. Now they face a cold USC team. Also, Stanford knows how crucial this game is. After this one they have just 2 more home games out of their remaining 7 games. With a tough 2-game road trip on deck, the Cardinal will come out with a very strong effort here at home. They are normally strong on their home floor and, while neither of these teams is good defensively, Stanford will be the more focused team here at home and looking to avenge a loss in which they allowed 93 points earlier this season! USC has been recently starting freshman Bronny James and, no disrespect intended, but he is just not quite ready to be a starter at USC. It shows how far this program has fallen. The Cardinal lost to UCLA by 8 points but that was because they were outscored by 21 points from three point land and 9 points at the free throw line. That is an unusual 30 point variance for a team on its home floor. The result here is line value as this line has dropped from its opener. Currently just a 2 point line as of about 11 hours before tipoff. Take advantage of the value. Lay it! STANFORD (-)

NBA Saturday Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - This is a bargain price in the -4 range on Philly as of 10 hours before tipoff. Yes the 76ers are struggling but they got Payne and Hield both into action last night and now this is their 2nd game with both on the floor. Also, Maxey should be back for this one but, even if he is not, look at the value in this match-up! Washington has the WORST home record in the NBA as they are just 3-22 SU at home this season. This is a value spot to grab a talented Sixers team that, though without Embiid and dealing with some injury issues, is still a far superior team to this Wizards team. Also, the Sixers have won 4 straight over the Wizards. All 4 wins were by at least 5 points and the average margin of victory was 21 points! More of the same on the way here in a road rout! Make no mistake the Sixers have struggled but the Wizards are having a very rough season and each of their last 29 losses have been by at least 4 points which is the line currently available in the marketplace as of 10 hours before tipoff. PHILADELPHIA (-)

Rotation #695: College Hoops Drexel Dragons (+) @ College of Charleston Cougars @ 3:30 ET - Drexel is off their worst loss in CAA action this season. They are still 8-3 in conference games and the two prior losses were by 5 or less points. We are getting value here because this line has gone from a 4 to a 6 in favor of College of Charleston. There has been an over-reaction to the recent struggles of Drexel and we get line value with a very hungry road dog in this one off of B2B losses. This is the first and only meeting between these clubs this season. Note that 6 straight meetings have been by decided by 5 or less points! In other words, tremendous value with this line in the 6 range as of about 5 hours before tipoff. The Dragons ugly loss at UNC Wilmington came down to poor shooting for them and excellent shooting for the Seahawks. Again, that 75-56 loss has created line value here with a Drexel team that is scrappy and was 7-0 in CAA action as of just 2 weeks ago. The Dragons will bounce back here and note that the Cougars are tied with them in the CAA standing but only on a modest 4-3 run and they lost the 3 games against tougher teams. All 4 wins have come against 4 teams with a combined 13-31 record in CAA action. I am not saying Charleston will lose this game outright. But I am saying the Dragons are very undervalued here and they keep this game tight and indeed do have a great shot at the outright upset here. Don't be surprised if this one makes it a 7-0 RUN of meetings decided by 5 or less points! Grab the 6 points here. DREXEL (+)

Rotation #775: CBB Thursday Iowa Hawkeyes Pick'em or -1 at Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7 ET - The Hawkeyes are 2-5 SU in true road games this season while Penn State is 8-3 in true home games this season. That said this line must be a huge mistake, right? Not at all actually as Iowa's most recent road loss - which I fully expect they will bounce back from here - is their only road loss against an unranked foe this season. Their 4 prior losses in true road games were to Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa State and Creighton! All of those teams are Top 25 teams. I love the situation here with the Hawkeyes having lost their most recent road game and catching Penn State off B2B wins. Note the only time this season the Nittany Lions have won more than 2 in a row was way back at the beginning of the season. Penn State started the season 4-0 but faced a bunch of cupcake opponents. The oddsmakers have this game with Iowa at a pick'em or -1 with good reason and I look for the Hawkeyes to have too much offense for the Nittany Lions in this one. Yes, Penn State has that signature home win over Wisconsin but upsets do happen at times when everything comes into place in one game. Other than this, the Nittany Lions other 4 Big Ten wins have come against teams that currently have a combined 16-31 Big Ten record on the season. Penn State, other than the upset of Wisconsin, has gone 3-2 L5 home games but with wins over a struggling Ohio State team and non-conference home wins over Rider and Le Moyne! Remember Iowa lost here last year so they have plenty of motivation here and though the Hawkeyes appear on track for an overall season comparable to last year, the Nittany Lions have regressed and were 9-11 this season prior to the B2B wins. The road team gets it done here. IOWA Pick'em or -1