Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #517 Friday 10* Top Play Indiana State Sycamores (pick'em) @ Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix @ 4:30 ET - UWGB is attracting some betting attention here because they are off a blowout win in their season opener while the Sycamores are off a blowout loss in their season opener. However, there is much more than meets the eye at first glance in terms of this match-up. First off, the Phoenix took advantage of playing a Division III school as they crushed Wisconsin-Lutheran to open up the season. Secondly, Indiana State played a Ball State team that is expected to be on of the top teams in the MAC. The Sycamores, even though they were on the road for that game too, were tied at the half with the Cardinals and also were down by just 7 at about the mid-way point of the 2nd half. After a disappointing effort on defense in the 2nd half of that game, the Sycamores are hell-bent on rectifying the situation here. Also, Indiana State was at a size disadvantage at Ball State but now it is the Sycamores whom will have the size edge in this match-up with UWGB. Also, this is game is an early start Friday due to a conflict with the Volleyball schedule for the Phoenix and so the game goes at 3:30 ET. A day game on campus isn't going to help the atmosphere here for UWGB either. With the Sycamores not playing again until the 14th, they are highly motivated to atone for their poor 2nd half performance at Ball State. The Phoenix are 2-6 ATS in Friday games and I look for the Sycamores to improve to 3-0 ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s in recent seasons. 10* INDIANA STATE

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Thursday 8* Houston Rockets (-) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Thunder are in the 2nd game of a back to back plus travel was involved as they were in Cleveland last night. The Rockets have a much better scheduling situation as they have been off for two days entering this game. Another issue for the Thunder is that Russell Westbrook is dealing with an ankle sprain. He missed last night's game and, without a practice day in between game days, it is quite likely he misses again tonight. Even if he would happen to play, I still like the Rockets here. Both teams are playing better for certain and they enter this game on hot streaks. However, prior to last night's game Oklahoma City had allowed 111 points per game this season. The Rockets, on the other hand, have been playing solid defense in recent games. Houston has allowed just 91 points per game their last two games and they held each of those opponents to a combined 42% from the field. The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last dozen meetings between these teams so home court has certainly proven not to be a big edge in their match-ups. Keep in mind the Rockets have been getting healthier (James Harden) while the Thunder are going the other direction (Westbrook). Houston is 22-9 ATS in November games. The Rockets also are 12-2 SU when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. Considering this as well as the rest edge and Westbrook's questionable status, I am happy to lay the small number on the road in this one. 8* HOUSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #513 Wednesday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are off an embarrassing loss at Brooklyn where Philly turned the ball over 27 times compared to just 9 for the Nets! Philadelphia has had two days off since then and can't wait to get back on the floor and atone for that performance. As for the Pacers, though they've been winning more regularly than the Sixers have of late, they are having shooting issues. Indiana has struggled at the free throw line this season and they've also made just 42% of their shots from the field in their last 3 home games! The Pacers are 0-3-1 ATS this season when off a home game. Also, Indiana is an ugly 1-4 ATS in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. The 76ers are a long-term 49-26 ATS in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, Philadelphia is 3-1 SU when off a loss this season. The public and betting markets are likely to back the Pacers here since the Sixers still have not won a road game this season. I am fading the masses, as per usual, because Philly got demolished by the Nets in their most recent game. As a result, they are incredibly focused for this game and the finally get a road win on the board. Now, though I do expect an outright upset, I am grabbing the available points here as the Pacers are only 3-2 SU in their last 5 games and 2 of those SU wins came by 2 points or less. In other words, getting 2.5 points or more here could prove to be very valuable. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #522 Wednesday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 6 ET - Huge game for many reasons. For one thing, it brings back the Cincinnati / Ohio State match-up many in Ohio had been calling for (they will meet next year in Columbus). Secondly, the Bearcats had to play their home games last season on the campus of Northern Kentucky as they were waiting for the renovations ($87 million!) to be completed at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati. You know the Bearcats are excited about this opportunity being back in their true home and hosting Ohio State. Last, but certainly not least, coach Mick Cronin and his Bearcats have been waiting nearly 8 months for a chance to redeem themselves after what happened back on March 18th. That was the infamous game against Nevada in the NCAA Tourney that saw a Cincinnati team that was one of the best in the nation defensively, blow a 22-point lead with 11 minutes to go in the game! One thing impacting Ohio State here is that big man Micah Potter just announced he was transferring. Granted he only averaged 10 minutes per game last season but, as a junior now, he was expected to have a bigger role this season and the Buckeyes lost a lot of key players from last year's team prior to now losing frontcourt depth with Potter's announcement. The Bearcats are 23-2 SU in their last 25 home games and this a very manageable line especially when you consider that Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games. Look for the strong D and the home court edge to be the difference makers for the Bearcats here as they take advantage of a Buckeyes team that will be adjusting to life without Keita Bates-Diop and Jae'Sean Tate as well as guards Kam Williams and Andrew Dakich. Sure the Bearcats lost some players too but they are in far better shape than the Buckeyes here in the early going. 8* CINCINNATI

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 8* Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Hawks are off a big win and ready to build some momentum. Atlanta is 3-0 ATS (and 3-0 SU!) this season when off a game where they scored 115 points or more. The Hornets are also off a big win but have only won back to back games once this season. That said, we're getting great line value here in being able to challenge the Hornets to win this game by a dozen points or more. I just don't see that happening here. Charlotte is a long-term 4-8 ATS in home games with posted total of 220 points or more. Much has been made of the Hornets improved offense this season but truly they have been a bit of sporadic. Prior to their blowout win over the Cavaliers, the Hornets had been held to 44% or less from the field in 5 of their last 7 games including being held to 41% or less in 2 of their last 3 games! The Hawks actually are the much hotter team with shooting right now as they've knocked down 51.4% of their shots from the field in their last 3 games. Of course Atlanta is one of the weaker teams in the league but lets not forget that Charlotte has won just 36 games each of the past two seasons. The Hornets certainly are not juggernauts and they're priced too high in this one. Give me the big points with the Hawks! 8* ATLANTA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #758 Tuesday 8* UCF Knights (-) vs Rider Broncs @ 6:30 ET - The Broncs are projected to be the #1 team in the MAAC this season and are getting a lot of respect from the betting markets here as a result. However, there contrarian viewpoint to this game that is getting overlooked by many is that the Knights are projected to be the #1 team in the AAC this season. Not only is UCF at home and coming from the stronger conference - American Athletic Conference over Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference - the fact is that the Knights are much healthier entering this season than they were last season. UCF managed to win 19 games last season despite enduring many injury setbacks. They enter this season with Tacko Fall and BJ Taylor both ready to be on the court at the same time (only played together in ONE game last season) and also Aubrey Dawkins (coach Johnny Dawkins son) is ready to go this season too! He transferred from Michigan to follow his father down to Central Florida so he had to sit out the first two season two years ago and then he missed last season due to a shoulder injury. Now he is ready to go as is the rest of a solid core group of Knights player. Additionally, UCF is even stronger due to some other additions (including through transfer) to an already solid basketball program. Sure Rider has impressive numbers on offense but their defense won't be able to match that of the Knights and this season's UCF team is loaded now that they are healthy. Plus, keep in mind, the Knights had added benefit of other guys getting valuable playing time last season due to the injuries. 8* UCF 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 1:05 ET - This is a revenge game for the 76ers from that unreal OT loss to the Pistons a little over a week ago when Blake Griffin had an unbelievable performance for Detroit. Undoubtedly, Griffin is a fantastic player. However, not only is a repeat of that type of performance unlikely, a look at some key stats can tell you why the Sixers should win this game handily. The Pistons, other than that win over Philly, have been held under 42.5% from the field in 5 of their other 6 games including 3 in a row. When a team is not shooting well, they're going to have trouble getting past a Philadelphia team that is averaging 116.6 points per game at home on 44.5% from the field and 38.4% from three point land! Also, in terms of defense, the Sixers are allowing just 43.6% from the field while the Pistons are allowing 46.7% from the field. Prior to the loss on October 23rd, by a single point in OT, the 76ers had defeated Detroit 4 straight times by an average margin of 15 points per game. The Sixers are 15-6 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more and I am forecasting a revenging home rout in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - Kawhi Leonard sat for the Raptors last night (just for rest) but that is no excuse for getting blown out at Milwaukee as the Bucks were without their star player as well as Giannis Antetokounmpo did end up going in concussion protocol. Also, the Sixers Joel Embiid did play in Philly's first back to back this season and I expect he will do so again here after Philadelphia blew out the Hawks in the 2nd half last night and they were able to rest starters in the 4th quarter. Embiid clearly was "saving up" for this game as he had his lowest point total and rebound total of the season in last night's game. Milwaukee, Toronto, Detroit, and Boston are the top 4 teams in the NBA East right now based on records. Why do I bring that up? Because the Sixers have already lost to Boston, Detroit (in OT thriller), and the Bucks. Philadelphia has this game at Toronto circled in blood as a result! The 76ers know they need to prove they can be a quality team in the East as so far they have looked like the weakest of all the aforementioned teams and Philly is supposed to be a legit contender in the East this season. With Ben Simmons playing very well, Markelle Fultz off a strong game, and Embiid having (in my opinion) saved up for this one, I am expecting a Sixers upset tonight but certainly like the value with the points. By the way, Raptors only had 2 players score 11 points or more last night while the 76ers had 6 players score at least 11 points last night. Balanced scoring certainly is an important factor and Philly was all over the boards last night too. They are hungry and in need of a statement win. The Raptors are on an 8-18 ATS run in Tuesday games while the Sixers are on a 13-7 ATS run in Tuesday games. Also, the 76'ers are 46-24 ATS their last 70 games versus teams that score an average of 106 points or more per game. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Saturday 8* Detroit Pistons (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - You know the Celtics will be focused here as they made it all the way to the Eastern Finals last season and are now looking at a Pistons team that has a 4-0 record on the season and trying to prove they're going to make some noise this season. However, just because Boston is focused doesn't mean it is going to pay off here and I feel we're getting excellent line value in this one with Detroit getting a couple of buckets as a home dog here! The Celtics have shot the ball very poorly this season. Boston is only hitting 40.7% from the field this season. The Pistons, on other hand, are hitting 45.4% from the field and Detroit's 3-point shooting % is only 3 percentage points behind the Celtics overall shooting percentage! Additionally, the Pistons are crashing the boards hard and dominating when it comes to rebounds and overall play in the paint. Yes, Boston is the better team on defense and also has played the tougher schedule early this season. However, the Pistons are very confident thanks to their hot start to the season and with Cleveland no longer a threat in the East, Detroit knows they are now hosting the team that would have represented the East in the NBA Finals last season were LeBron already in LA like he is now. The point is that the Pistons are fully charged up for this opportunity to take on one of the best teams in the East and, the way they're playing, I don't see Detroit being denied here. While I fully expect an upset with the Pistons, I am grabbing the added "insurance" available with the points. 8* DETROIT

NBA Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - This play is contrarian from the standpoint that, on the surface, it looks real easy to take the Rockets at home off a loss and lay a very small number in doing so. However, the problem with Houston right now is they have a cluster of injuries impacting them and also Chris Paul is suspended for one more game and not returning until Friday's match-up with the Clippers. Also, the Rockets are catching the Jazz at the wrong time. Not only does Utah have playoff revenge from last season, the Jazz also enter this game off back to back losses and very fired up for this game. They blew their recent game against the defending champion Warriors and then, after that debacle in the Warriors game, they clearly looked right past Memphis as they were looking ahead to this opportunity for post-season revenge. Now the day has arrived and it is time to "put up or shut up" and I expect the Jazz to "put up" here! Utah has stayed mostly static with their roster and that particularly helps them in a situation like this where the Rockets are having to mix and match pieces. Also note that the Jazz have only failed to cover 24 of their last 67 games when facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game. As for Houston, they are on a 10-18 ATS run when playing with 2 days of rest between games. 10* UTAH

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Detroit is 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS on the season. They've squeaked by Brooklyn and Chicago. Neither the Nets or Bulls are expected to post much of a threat in terms of NBA supremacy this season! The point is that the Pistons are now finally facing a strong team and Philly has some confidence back after back to back wins have followed an opening game disaster versus the Celtics. Yes, the 76ers have also faced a weak schedule since that game one loss but the fact that they've at least, unlike the Pistons, faced one quality opponent, is reason enough to believe that they've got a better shot at getting into the win column in this one. The Pistons have yet to truly be battle tested. Even though Simmons (back) is an issue for the Sixers, they played most of the last game without him which allowed for a good "test run" and they'll be even better prepared tonight after JJ Redick went off in his absence and had a huge game. Keep in mind too that Detroit big man Andre Drummond is dealing with the flu which certainly won't help the Pistons as they try to contain Joel Embiid inside! Philly won all 4 meetings last season and each win came by at least 5 points. The 76ers are on a 21-9 ATS run when playing with 2 days of rest between games and this is their first such opportunity this season. The Sixers will make the most of it! The Pistons have a divisional game on deck (Cavs) and also are off a divisional win (Bulls) and Detroit is 11-20 ATS their last 31 when off a divisional game. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 6:05 ET - The Cavaliers burned me on Friday night but I'll get it back here. I had the Timberwolves (-8 or -8.5) and they blew a 21-point lead and won the game by only 8 for a loss or push for my clients. Now we get a chance to fade a line move here as everyone is piling on Cleveland for their home opener. This is not a very good Cavs team. Now I am certainly not saying that the Hawks are anything special either but they are now getting a lot more points than they should be considering they are 0-2 SU just like the Cavaliers are so they will be every bit as hungry. Keep in mind they have a history of playing very well here too as they've covered each of their last 8 trips to Cleveland. Coming into this season, Atlanta's projected win total was very close to that of the Cavaliers and there is just not a huge difference right now between these two teams. I also like the fact that the Cavs have covered (to the closing line) each of their first two games but each by just half a point. Their luck runs out here as they will be doing good just to win this game let alone cover the inflated spread. The Cavaliers are on a 61-84 ATS run as a favorite. Cleveland is also 39-58 ATS in home games. Also, when off a non-conference games, the Cavs are an ugly 25-42 ATS. 10* ATLANTA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #710 Friday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - Both the Cavs and Wolves were outscored at the 3-point line in their season opening losses. The difference tonight in terms of whom bounces back in Game Two of the new season has a lot to do with the home floor. The Cavaliers are unlikely to fix their outside shooting woes here. Their problems were evident in a bit of a disjointed game at Toronto where they found themselves down 20 points. As for Minnesota's game at San Antonio, they got very little from Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler didn't contribute a lot until he was involved with all of the Timberwolves last 14 points. So if Towns doesn't foul out, Butler carries over momentum from his late game play at SA, and the Wolves also don't get outscored by 15 points from beyond the arc then what happens? I'll tell you what happens. This game should turn into an absolute home blowout. We're getting extra line value here because the Cavs snuck in the back door for a late cover or push while the Wolves just missed covering their first game. Now this line is down from where it should be. Keep in mind the Wolves crushed the Cavs here by 28 points last year and Cleveland comes into this season projected to finish the year 20 games under .500 (sans LeBron James) while the Timberwolves are projected to be a winning team in the tougher Western Conference (per win totals from odds makers before the season). The Wolves are 9-4 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Cavs are 11-33 ATS when off a loss by a double digit margin! Blowout time here. 10* MINNESOTA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers go from playing the best team in the Eastern Conference to now facing one of the worst. Philly also goes from playing on the road in a tough venue in Boston to playing at home for their own rowdy fans. Especially with this game being their home opener, this game has blowout written all over it after the 76ers had such a tough game from the 2nd quarter on in their opening night loss Tuesday. Philadelphia is 27-15 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin in their prior game. Also, the 76ers are a long-term 56-30 ATS in home games. The Bulls are on a 28-57 SU run in road games and when the Sixers win as a favorite they normally cover. The 76ers are on a 47-19 SU run as a favorite and they've gotten the cash in 38 of those 47 wins. With advantages all over the floor (especially with Bulls missing Lauri Markkanen) this one turns into a home blowout. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Celtics won 7 of 9 meetings with the Sixers last year. Boston has also won 9 straight home games against Philly. Yet the line on this season opening game opened up at just a 5. You know where I am going here as this is a perfect example of what my contrarian picks are all about. While Boston at home looks enticing it should prove out that Philly was the right side in this one! Keep in mind, Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward are back for Boston but are returning from injuries. Also, the 76ers Markelle Fultz worked hard on his shot in the off-season. He adds value to a team loaded with talent including Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and JJ Redick. Look for the highly motivated Sixers to prove to be the much hungrier team in this one and they are making some changes on defense in this one that should help them be stronger in the paint against the Celtics. Only time will tell but I feel an upset looms tonight and, keep in mind, the last 4 meetings between these teams featured a 76ers win and 3 Sixers losses but all of those Philly defeats came by a margin of 5 or less points. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Easy as ABC - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - In Cavaliers games the home team has covered 8 of the last 11. Also, Cleveland is off of 3 straight losses but hasn't lost 4 straight games since a losing streak in early to mid-January. So you have to go back nearly 5 months to find the last time the Cavs have lost 4 in a row. I don't expect that to happen here either but am happy to grab the value with the points should Cleveland fall just short here. The Cavaliers, since the calendar turned from April to May, have shot much better when on their home floor EXCEPT for Game 3. Entering that Game 3, Cleveland had shot at least 47% from the field in all 5 games and the Cavs had averaged 113.8 points per game in their 5 prior home games. The Warriors have averaged only 102.5 points per game in their last 4 road games. Golden State is on a 15-27 ATS run against teams with a winning record and the Warriors are 10-23 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 37-14 SU when at home this season and also they've gone 5-3 SU in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. Even though the Cavaliers are down 3-0 in this series, the Game 1 loss was in OT and the Game 3 defeat was a tie game very late. That said, the available points here in a game that the Cavaliers will be desperate for - at home and looking to avoid an embarrassing sweep - I like the value of LeBron James and Company as a home dog. 10* CLEVELAND

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - In Cavaliers games the home team has covered 8 of the last 10. Also, Cleveland is off of back to back losses but hasn't lost 3 straight games since a losing streak in early to mid-January. So you have to go back nearly 5 months to find the last time the Cavs have lost 3 in a row. I don't expect that to happen here either but am happy to grab the value with the points should Cleveland fall just short here. The Cavaliers, since the calendar turned from April to May, have shot much better when on their home floor. Cleveland has shot at least 47% from the field in all 5 games and the Cavs have averaged 113.8 points per game in their last 5 home games. The Warriors have averaged only 100 points per game in their last 3 road games and were held to 45.9% or less in 6 of their last 10 road games before a strong shooting effort to close out the Rockets at Houston in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State is on a 14-27 ATS run against teams with a winning record and the Warriors are 9-23 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 37-13 SU when at home this season and also they've gone 5-2 in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. With 2 days of rest between games and coming back home and having been so close to the upset win in Game 1, look for a huge effort from the Cavaliers at home in this one as they get back into the series with a great performance. 10* CLEVELAND

Easy as ABC - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Of course this game is televised on ABC so that is where the play title comes from but truly the hope is that this cover is indeed as "Easy as ABC" tonight. The fact is that the Warriors barely got by a Rockets team sans Chris Paul in the final two games of the series and that also short horrific from three point land. Of course Houston relies heavily on the 3-ball so the nearly unbelievably poor shooting from downtown was ultimately the nail in the coffin for the Rockets. Now, after winning by only 9 at Houston in Game 7 despite the Rockets being without Paul and unable to "throw the ball in the ocean" (their shooting was so OFF!), the Warriors are as high as a 13 point favorite against a Cavaliers team that is starting to believe they can pull off the unthinkable. Keep in mind, Boston is VERY well-coached and yet the Cavaliers still managed to get past the Celtics in Boston in Game 7 with a valiant effort by LeBron James and Company. The Warriors, in the Rockets series, certainly haven't looked as invincible as they have in the past and the Cavs are well aware of the fact that they are being given absolutely "no chance" in this series. Highly motivated and well rested, LeBron and his eager teammates are absolutely going to hang around in this game one and put up a big challenge to the Warriors. Simply put, I just don't see this game being decided by more than single digits. Cavs are 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season and the Warriors are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season. 10* Top Play CLEVELAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - I will not be surprised if Chris Paul plays tonight and if he is also very effective. However, even if he doesn't, one should not forget that the Rockets (sans Paul) led the Warriors by double digits at the half on Saturday and that game was at Golden State. Yes they got blown out in the second half but Houston certainly garnered some confidence from that first half performance and now they get Game 7 at home. The Rockets are 41-9 SU at home this season and 21-6 SU when playing with revenge and 15-3 SU when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. The Houston offense has certainly struggled for long stretches on the road in these playoffs but the Rockets have averaged 112 points per game in their last 7 home games and I expect a huge performance tonight. The Warriors are a long-term 6-10 SU when tied in a playoff series and that includes 2-3 SU and ATS the last 3 seasons combined. In other words they are far from "automatic" in a spot like this and the fact is that these points are very generous. The Warriors have covered only 22 of their last 60 versus teams with a winning record! Golden State is 9-16 (36%) ATS their last 25 road games. I am expecting the upset here but am grabbing the points because if the Rockets do fall short it is likely to be by just a bucket or two. They are not going down without a fight here whether Paul plays or not. 10* HOUSTON

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - Well aware of the fact that the Celtics are 10-0 at home in the post-season. Also well aware of the fact that the Cavaliers are without Kevin Love for this game. However, after he went out in Game 6 (head injury), the Cavs were "off and running" thanks in large part to LeBron James. The fact is I simply can not play against him in a Game 7. While it is true that one man does not make a team, he is also a leader for this Cavaliers team and the fact is that his team has a 5-0 record in his last 5 Game 7's. The last loss was all the way back in 2008 and, ironically, that defeat came at the hands of the Celtics. However, this is LeBron's 15th season and that game was 10 years ago! James has matured, of course, a ton since then and I look for his team record in Game 7 match-ups to make it 6 in a row on Sunday night! I know venue has had a lot do with it but lets also not forget that the Celtics have lost 3 of the last 4 games in this series. It is hard to believe that with coaching adjustments at half-time (Brad Stevens is a fantastic coach) and with Love being out of the game, the Celtics still couldn't close this out in Game 6. Boston has had so many chances to really truly take a stranglehold on this series (after being up 2-0) and they just never did it. Now they pay the ultimate price for that in my opinion. It is VERY rare for a 7-game series to go 7 games and have the home team win every single game and I look for this one to avoid that rare exception in the record books too. Remember James and Company won Game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2016 at Golden State! I am calling for the upset but will grab the points being offered! 10* CLEVELAND

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Friday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - The way I see it the Cavs had their chance in this series and blew it in Game 5. Cleveland had all the momentum after winning big in Games 3 and 4 at home but then went and laid an egg on the road Wednesday. Knowing that Game 7 would also be on the road and that Boston is a perfect 10-0 at home in the post-season, this is in the back of the minds of the Cavaliers whether they admit to it or not. The fact is that the Celtics now have the Cavs on the ropes and if Cleveland does somehow pull this one out I expect it to be a very tight win. Keep in mind, prior to the blowout wins in Games 3 and 4 of this series and finishing off the Raptors in Game 4 in a rout, the Cavaliers 6 prior home wins had all come by a margin of 6 points or less! In fact they are known this season for just squeaking by in games. That is why the Cavaliers are 23-49 ATS as a favorite this season and 16-33 ATS in home games! Boston is 23-10 ATS as an underdog this season. The last 5 times the Cavs were off of a double digit loss they've actually gone only 3-2 SU. In other words, even bouncing back for a SU win here is not a given and also 2 of those 3 SU wins came by 4 points or less. In other words, laying 7 points off of a double digit loss would have resulted in a 1-4 ATS record for the Cavs since April 1st. I am grabbing the big dog value with the Celtics in this one as finally we see a road team cover in this series! 10* BOSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Wednesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - The Celtics didn't just lose Game 3 in Cleveland, they got crushed. Boston followed that up with a better effort in Game 4 but they still were down by double digits nearly the entire game. The points is that the Cavaliers didn't just beat them, they destroyed them. As much as I respect the coaching of Brad Stevens, the head man for Boston can only do so much and the veteran edge the Cavs roster has is paying dividends as this series has gone on. The fact that the Cavaliers didn't just win but won huge in Cleveland means they now have all the momentum plus a ton of confidence as this series goes back to Boston for Game 5. Keep in mind, Boston has gone 9-0 on their home floor in the post-season but this game is priced this way for a reason and it is certainly no mistake. Look for the Cavs to get the upset win Wednesday and take a stranglehold on this series. LeBron James is back in the zone and what people don't realize is their hot shooting has been there since before this series started. It is not as if the Cavs are just getting "lucky" with their shots. They've been on fire dating back to the Raptors series. Yes they had one very poor shooting effort (Game 1 of this series) but in their other 6 games the past 3 weeks they've hit a combined 52.2% from the field. That is NOT one game, that is a combined average for SIX games! That is HOT shooting that Boston only wishes they could achieve. The Celtics have been held under 44.8% in 5 of their last 6 games. Big difference here and the Cavs have the best player on the floor, the momentum, the experience edge, and the confidence factor. The Cavaliers are a long-term 17-6 SU their last 23 games versus the Celtics and that includes 8-4 SU and ATS their last 12 in Boston. Yes, the Celtics took it to them in Game 1 here but the Cavs were up 7 points at the half in Game 2 on this floor. With the way the tide has turned in this series, look for LeBron and Company to again jump on the Celtics early with a big first half in Boston and, this time, they hang on for the win over a dejected Celtics team that is now (though they wouldn't admit it) doubting themselves. 10* CLEVELAND

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - Tremendous value here as everyone expects the Cavaliers to bounce back since they are at home and they have dug an 0-2 hole in this series. There are many problems with that theory however. First off, this is LeBron James weakest supporting cast in his tenure with the Cavs. Secondly, the Cavaliers best shot for a blowout home win would be to get hot from the outside and start draining shot after shot. The long layoff in this series won't help in that regard. These teams haven't played since Tuesday and Boston is 5-1 SU and ATS this season when playing with 3 or more days of rest this season while Cleveland is 0-4 SU and ATS with those same parameters this season! The issue for the Cavs is that generally when they are shooting cold (and certainly the Celtics are tough defensively) they stay cold. The Cavaliers this season are an ugly 1-6 ATS when they enter a game having been held under 100 points in each of their 2 prior games. In other words, don't look for the Cavs to start suddenly draining all kinds of shots in this game. In fact, with their loss in Game 2 (scored 94) after scoring just 83 in Game 1, Cleveland is now 4-17 ATS this season when off of a game where they were held under 100 points! Should the Cavs find a way to get a home win and crawl back into this series don't be surprised if it is a non-covering win. Cleveland is only 8-6 SU in their last 14 games and 6 of those 8 wins have come by a margin of 4 points or less! Look for the Cavaliers to drop to 0-5 ATS on the season when they are playing with 3 or more days of rest. 10* BOSTON

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #734 Sunday 8* Boston Celtics (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 3:35 ET - Some shops actually opened this one up with the Celtics as a favorite in Game 1. Of course the markets love the Cavaliers and have already pushed Cleveland to the favorite in this match-up as of Thursday evening. Rest is a good thing but sometimes too much rest can be a bad thing. In this case, the Cavs could have too much. While the Celtics will have last played on Wednesday, the Cavaliers will have had nearly a full week off as they wrapped up their sweep of the Raptors on Monday. That could be a significant factor here because what allowed the Cavs to steamroll Toronto was, in part, the fact that Cleveland's shooting got red hot after having struggled at times in the series with Indiana. The Celtics have arguably the top coach in the league and don't sell Philly short either. That was a very good Sixers team that Boston just got past. That said, Brad Stevens gives the Celtics the X-factor here as he definitely gives the Celtics the coaching edge in this series. In terms of the Game 1 match-up, I like the fact that Boston is at home and Cleveland could be rusty. Note that the Celtics have been an incredible ATS team all season and they certainly have not cooled off. Boston is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. As for the Cavaliers, they got a dominating cover over Toronto in Game 4 to complete the sweep but they entered that game on a 4-8 ATS run. The Cavs went 1-2 ATS versus the Celtics in the regular season and Cleveland is a mediocre 8-7 SU in their last 15 road games. Celtics are 11-1 SU L12 home games. 8* BOSTON

THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - Most all of you have likely heard the expression "let sleeping dogs lie". It is an old saying that essentially means this: avoid interfering in a situation that is currently causing no problems but might do so as a result of such interference. Here is the problem with the Celtics and what they did in Game 4 at Philly. Certainly entering the game the 76ers were dogs and Boston would have been better off not doing anything to provoke them. Instead the game became quite "testy" and at one point Philly native Marcus Morris (Celtics player) flashed a 3-0 signal with his hands to remind the Sixers what the series score was. Needless to say that is like twisting a stick into the belly of a sleeping dog. Philly head coach Brett Brown made a great move by starting TJ McConnell in Game 4 and he had a career game for the 76ers as it paid off huge for Philly. Lets not forget the Celtics are extremely well coached but still would be a much better team if they had Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward on the floor. The more talented team in this series (with those two guys missing for Boston) is Philadelphia. They are plenty alive and awake now and remember they lost Game 3 in OT and also the Game 2 loss at Boston was a narrow one. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA but the Sixers are well aware that they just need one win here to send this series back to Philly with a chance to tie it up. They are rejuvenated and ironically one of the few times in the NHL in which a team won a series after being down 3-0 was when the Philadelphia (Flyers) rallied against the Boston (Bruins) in 2010. Boston had the home ice edge there just like the Celtics do in this series. This Sixers team is absolutely rejuvenated and revitalized after the Game 4 win and they carry extra motivation after some of what went on in Game 4 on the court. I also like the fact that at one point the line on this game was 76ers -1.5 but the markets are loving the Celtics here and now it is Boston that is much as a -1.5 point favorite as of early game day morning. I love fading line moves like this and look for Boston to drop to 5-8 SU the last 13 times they've been leading in a playoff series as the Sixers improve to 24-11 SU the last 35 times they were off of a win by a double digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Tuesday 8* Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - Much is being made of the Rockets defense (and they do deserve some credit) but the Jazz certainly missed a lot of shots they should have made in the past two games. There have only been 3 other times this season that Utah was held to 41.7% or less in 2 consecutive games. The result in that next game was 3-0 SU/ATS with an average SU margin of 14 points per win. Also, two of the victories were wins versus Cleveland and Golden State where the Jazz were a dog in each and won the games outright including blasting the Warriors by 30 points. Now I am certainly not suggesting that type of road rout happens here but what I am absolutely expecting is Utah to hang tough in this elimination game! Look for the Jazz take their record to a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in this situation. There have only been 6 other times this season that the Rockets have held the opposition to 42.6% or less in back to back games. The ATS result in that next game for Houston was 1-5 ATS. Utah is 19-7 SU (and 17-9 ATS) their last 26 versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Even with Rubio still out and Exum now out as well, the Jazz are not going to go down without a fight here. Houston is a long-term 20-45 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more and that includes an ugly 2-11 ATS this season. The Jazz perfect ATS record in this situation this season seals it for me! 8* UTAH 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - Most will be looking for the Cavaliers, up 3-0 in this series, to close it out on their home floor Monday. However, even if Cleveland does that, it would not be too surprising if the Cavs fall short of the cover. After all, with Game 3's non-covering win, the Cavaliers are now 20-49 ATS as a favorite this season and also 13-33 ATS in home games! The loss for the Raptors marked the first time this season that they've lost 3 straight games. That is certainly noteworthy as Toronto is 5-2 ATS in recent seasons when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 3 or more games. Also, the Raptors are 5-0 ATS (100% PERFECT) this season when they are an underdog of 4 or more points. As of very early game day morning, Toronto is catching a half-dozen points here and this is offering great value with the hungry underdog. The Raptors, with their cover Saturday, are now 6-1 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games. I expect Toronto to gut out a win and stay alive in this series. However, if they do fall short, look for it to be by 4 points or less. 6 of Cleveland's 7 playoff wins in this post-season have come by 4 points or less. 10* TORONTO

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #706 Sunday 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - The markets, as expected, are all over the Warriors here after they lost Game 3 at New Orleans. This has driven the Golden State line from a -4.5 up to a -6 as of early game day morning. Keep in mind the Warriors are on a 1-4 ATS run their last 5 games and they continue to be over-valued. Golden State is also 8-22 ATS their last 28 games versus teams with a winning record. The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in this post-season and I don't expect them to fall flat here even though Game 3 was such a big win. Playing again Sunday on their home floor certainly helps and New Orleans is 14-6 SU / 13-7 ATS this season when off of a win by a double digit margin. Also, the Pelicans are 4-0 SU and ATS when they are at home and the posted total on a game is 230 points or more. In Game 1 of this series Golden State attempted 32 free throws. New Orleans, through the first three games of this series have TOTALED only 32 free throw attempts. Even with this disparity at the charity stripe, the Pelicans have covered 2 of the 3 games and I feel we're getting excellent home dog line value here. I won't hesitate to take it. 8* NEW ORLEANS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - This line doesn't make sense which is precisely why I am backing the dog here. The Cavs just finished up winning both games at Toronto including demolishing the Raptors in convincing fashion in Game 2 and yet now they are at home and opened up as only a 3.5 point favorite. Of course markets jumped all over that and have driven the line all the way up to as high as a 5 as of early game day morning. Going contrarian as per usual I am on the other side of this move. The Cavaliers only turned the ball over a total of 8 times in the first two games. This is ridiculous and will change. The Cavs averaged 14 turnovers per game in their prior 8 games before averaging just 4 turnovers per game their last 2. As for the Raptors they had forced an average of 13 turnovers per game in their 4 games previous to allowing an average of only 4 in the last two games versus the Cavs. Also, Cleveland is not going to shoot 59.5% from the field again in Game 3 like they did in Game 2. It didn't matter what they were throwing up Thursday night it was going in. That is helping to lead to value here for the hungry Raptors. Toronto is 14-4 SU off of an upset loss as a favorite this season and they also are 16-5 SU after allowing 115 points or more. The Cavaliers are just 20-47 ATS as a favorite and only 13-31 ATS in home games this season. Cleveland also is 2-10 ATS in Saturday games this season. More of the same here. 10* TORONTO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 5:05 ET - This number looks big, doesn't it? Of course that is why the Celtics have been a popular choice and the spread on this one has dropped from double digits down to as low as 8.5 as of early game day morning. Don't be fooled. The fact is that the fired up 76ers are going to be full of intensity and fire for this critical Game 3 match-up in Philly. Down 0-2 in the series and with their backs against the wall, look for full-on intensity from the Sixers at both ends of the floor and they won't take their foot off of the gas the entire game. Since the calendar turned to 2018, the 76ers have been at home off of a loss 4 times. In those 4 games Philadelphia is a perfect 4-0 both SU and ATS and I look for another home blowout here by a double digit margin. The Celtics haven't played a road game in over a week and they are 10-17 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. The 76ers are 32-11 SU (and 29-14 ATS) in home games this season and they will not be denied in this must-win spot. The Sixers are 10-1 SU (and 9-2 ATS) in their last 11 home games. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #516 Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 10:35 ET - 3-point shooting comes and goes. The Rockets were the hot team in Game 1 and the Jazz were the hot team in Game 2 from beyond the arc. However, lets talk about what is going on inside the arc so far in this series. Houston has made 48 of 108 shots from 2-point land for a 44% shooting percentage while Utah has made a ridiculous 59 of 105 shots from inside the arc for a stellar 56% shooting percentage. You can tell who is getting the higher percentage shots / better looks at the basket so far in this series. Also, the Jazz have a shot 59.6% from the free throw line so far in this series. That is unusual and certainly won't continue based on their full season mark of 77.9% from the charity stripe. The Rockets defense has been subpar and they are 3-7 ATS this season when they enter a game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive overs. The point is that when Houston is not playing good defense and games are flying over the total, they generally don't cover spreads either! Also, the Rockets are a long-term 6-11 SU (and ATS) when tied in a playoff series. Utah is 3-1 SU (and ATS) when tied in a playoff series and they'll ride the momentum of the big Game 2 win plus returning to their home floor tonight. Note that the Jazz are 16-6 SU after scoring 115 points or more in a game this season and also 19-5 SU in their last 24 games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. 10* UTAH

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Friday 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors took the first two games of this series on their home floor and are now on a 3-game winning streak. Golden State, when on a winning streak of 3 or more games this season, has gone just 8-19 ATS. The Warriors are also on just an 8-21 ATS run versus teams with a winning record. When playing with two days of rest between games, Golden State is 6-10 ATS this season while New Orleans is 8-4 ATS (and SU!) in that situation this season. I am expecting the upset here with the Pelicans but certainly am going to grab the generous points being offered. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in this post-season and they also went 3-0 SU this season in home games with a posted total of 230 points or more. The Pelicans did not suffer an ATS loss in any of those 3 games. As you can see from the huge O/U on this, a lot of points are expected and I look for the home team to prevail at the betting window as Golden State drops to 7-11 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 230 points or more. The Pelicans have had only 20 free throw attempts so far in this series while the Warriors have had 59 attempts from the charity stripe! That disparity will not continue now that the series shifts to the Smoothie King Center! 8* NEW ORLEANS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - The Celtics won Game 1 and that is perfect for setting up insane value here. Don't be surprised if that is the only game that Boston wins in this series. The scene will shift to Philly for Games 3 and 4 after tonight's game and I just don't see the Celtics winning again here. Did the 76ers perhaps come in overconfident Monday? One thing is for certainly Philadelphia head coach Brett Brown will have his team ready to go here and Boston is NOT going to make 17 of 36 three pointers again! Keep in mind, the Celtics outscored the Sixers by 36 points from three point land! If the teams were just "even" from beyond the arc, Philadelphia wins Game 1 by a 20 point margin! The 76ers dominated the boards in Game 1 and also did a better job of getting to the free throw line as they had very nearly twice as many attempts as Boston. Additionally, from inside the arc, Philly made 30 shots while the Celtics made only 24. There is an old saying about "live by the three die by the three" and the fact is that Boston only won Game 1 because of 3-point shooting and that is certainly not expected to continue here. In their 5 prior games, the Celtics were held to 34.6% or less in all 5 games! Boston is also banged up and the Sixers certainly hold the "health edge" here. When playing with 2 days of rest between games the 76ers went 12-4 ATS this season while the Celtics went 6-8 SU. Look for Boston to drop to 3-7 SU the last 10 times they have held a lead in a playoff series. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Early Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Thursday 8* Toronto Raptors (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 6:05 ET - The Raptors let one get away in Game 1. Off of that disappointing loss I do expect a huge response here. Yes the Cavaliers showed great resiliency in coming back Tuesday but it was more than just being purely resilient. They also made 14 three pointers while the Raptors made just 9. That is a 15 point difference. In other words, without that disparity from beyond the arc, Toronto wins the game by 14 points. I am happy to lay the half-dozen points here as the Raptors are 14-3 SU when off of an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Cavaliers just got what was only their 2nd cover in 8 games so far this in this post-season. Also, the Cavs have a losing record ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog this season. Cleveland is still just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 games versus teams with a winning record. The Raptors are also 6-2 SU when playing with home loss revenge this season. 22 of the Cavs last 26 SU losses have come by a margin of 7 or more points! Each of the Raptors last 8 SU wins have come by a margin of 8 points or more. 8* TORONTO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - There are some statistical outliers from Game 1 of this series that make this a fantastic spot to grab the big dog. Keep in mind, the Jazz lost Game 1 by only 14 points even though the Rockets hit a ridiculous 17 of 32 from three point land and Utah made only 13 of 22 free throws! Yes, Houston is known for their 3-point shooting but they hit only 36.2% on the season. The Jazz actually hit 36.5% of their threes on the season! As for that unusual free throw shooting, Utah made 77% of their shots from the charity stripe on the season. The point is that, given normal shooting of free throws and three pointers, the JAZZ would have WON Game 1 by 8 points! That's right, Utah would have made 1 more three and 4 more free throws while the Rockets would have made 5 less threes. The result is a 22 point swing from a 14 point win for Houston to a win for Utah by a margin of 8 points. The beauty here is we don't need the Jazz to win, we just need them to cover and, as you can see, Game 1 had some crazy shooting results and yet the Rockets still barely covered! I am all over the value with big dog Utah in Game 2. The Jazz are 18-5 SU their last 23 game against team that average 106 points or more per game and they are also 10-6 SU/ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Rockets are 5-10 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Certainly the extra time off sometimes effects the shooting stroke of Houston's outside shooters. 10* UTAH 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Tuesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - Steph Curry is expected back for tonight's game. Of course this has resulted in a jump in this line. However, will he be 100%? Will he be ready to step right in without disrupting the current flow of the Warriors? The fact is that he has hardly played in the past two months. Will there be an adjustment phase for both Curry and for Golden State in terms of working him back into the mix? I absolutely believe so and there is excellent value with a hungry Pelicans team off of an embarrassing loss in Game 1 and catching huge points in Game 2. Keep in mind Golden State was just "making everything" in the first half of that Game 1 victory and that got New Orleans into a big hole early. That will not be the case tonight and you're going to see the Pelicans playing with plenty of resolve and determination after the embarrassment of Game 1's result. Keep in mind, New Orleans entered this series on a 9-0 SU and ATS run their last 9 games. The Pelicans have averaged 116.5 points per game their last 10 games. New Orleans is 7-4 ATS (and 8-3 SU) when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, the Pelicans are 28-16 ATS in road games this season. The Warriors are only 6-9 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games and also are 1-8 ATS in Tuesday games this season. Golden State is on an 8-20 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they are over-priced here. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #558 Tuesday 8* Toronto Raptors (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - The Raptors come into this series with some extra rest while the Cavaliers are off of a grueling 7-game series with the Pacers. Not only did Indiana push Cleveland to the brink, the Pacers also outplayed the Cavs for much of the series. The Cavaliers were held under 45% from the field in 6 of the 7 games! The Pacers actually shot 48.1% in the series and that included making at least 45% of their shots in all 7 games against Cleveland. Of course the Cavaliers defense has been under fire for much of this season as they have allowed 109.2 points per game in their 89 games (including 1st round of these playoffs). Toronto got into "playoff mode" as their series got deeper versus the Wizards. The Raptors won the final two games and, over the last 3 games Toronto held Washington to only 42.5% from the field. The Raptors were swept out of the post-season by the Cavs last year in the 2nd round. This season certainly will play out much differently and Toronto should take Game 1 in convincing fashion. The Raptors are 37-7 SU at home this season (including playoffs) and the Cavaliers have covered just 1 of their 7 post-season games. Also, Cleveland is on an 11-19 ATS run versus teams with a winning record! 8* TORONTO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 3:35 ET - The Jazz are without point guard Ricky Rubio and the line has really jumped on this game as a result. Utah is approaching being a dog by a dozen points here. Keep in mind, they lost Rubio to a strained hamstring very early in their series clinching win over Oklahoma City Friday. In other words, they played just fine without him. Sure Rubio contributes in a lot of ways but it certainly hadn't been his shooting in the Thunder series. He was in an awful slump and the time out with the hamstring injury may not be such a bad thing for Rubio (to get back on track) or for the Jazz as they'll compensate well for his absence here. Utah has multiple ways to modify their lineup sans Rubio and they'll be just fine here so I am glad to contrarian and grab the extra value here as everyone jumps on the Rockets at home. Houston struggled to find their rhythm on offense for long stretches in their series with the Timberwolves. They did not shoot the ball particularly well until the Game 5 victory. Now the Rockets will have to contend with a much tougher defense than what Minnesota presented. The Jazz use their defense to take down better offensive teams. That is why Utah is on an 18-4 SU run (16-6 ATS) versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, the Jazz are 6-2 ATS in Sunday games this season. The Rockets are just 4-8 ATS their last 12 games. Also, when Houston enters a game on a totals streak of 3 or more consecutive overs, they've gone 2-6 ATS this season. Look for the Jazz defense to be the difference maker here. 10* UTAH

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Sunday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 1:05 ET - Pacers are 13-4 SU and ATS in Sunday games this season. Indiana 37-19 ATS in games versus divisional opponents. Pacers 11-4 ATS in playoff games after demolishing the Cavaliers in Game 6 to force this Game 7 in Cleveland. Versus teams that allow an average of 106 points or more per game, the Pacers are 27-13 ATS. The Cavs have home court edge in Game 7 but that certainly has not proven to be an edge at the betting window! Cleveland is 13-31 ATS in home games this season! The Cavaliers are only 4-8 ATS in first round playoff games. While one would expect them to bounce back off of the ugly loss in Game 6, the Cavs are actually 13-36 ATS (including 5-16 ATS this season) when off of a loss by a double digit margin. No bounce back here and, in fact, I expect the Pacers to ride the momentum of the Game 6 win to an upset victory in Game 7. Certainly I am grabbing the generous points though just in case. Indiana's 3 losses in this series have all come by 4 points or less. Also, the Pacers are 4-0 ATS last 4 road games and Cleveland is 0-5 ATS last 5 home games. Combined 9-0 ATS run favoring the road dog here. 8* INDIANA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Saturday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - Stephen Curry is likely coming back for the Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. That has caused this line to jump up to a 9 as of early game day morning. The fact is that he is unlikely to be 100% right out of the gate and his shooting is also unlikely to be as sharp as usually. Keep in mind, Curry has hardly seen any game action since very early March. Golden State is hosting a red hot Pelicans team that also has added confidence from winning on this very floor in early April. That victory is part of the red hot 9-0 SU/ATS run that the Pelicans are bringing into this game. It is no fluke either as New Orleans is 9-3 SU/ATS their last 12 road games! When a team is that hot and winning like that away from home, they are a force to be reckoned with and I like the added line value here of this one now approaching double digits! The Pelicans are 13-7 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Warriors are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 home games and that long-term stretch dates all the way back to the All Star break. The Pelicans are shooting 52.8% from the field in their last 7 games. Golden State has been held under 44.7% from the field in 2 straight and 3 of their last 6 games. The Pelicans are geared up for the upset here and if they do fall short I expect the generous points offered here to prove to be more than enough. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Saturday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The home team has won every game in this series so naturally the popular choice here will be the Celtics. Everyone knows that I stay away from the popular choice as much as possible but it is never without good reason. In this case I absolutely feel that the Bucks are the better team. I know it has been a tight series, including an OT win for the Celtics early on, but I still feel Milwaukee is the better team and will take this game even though they're on the road. The Bucks have only shot poorly in one game in this series. In the other 5 games they've shot at least 48.2% from the field in all five games. Conversely, the Celtics have only shot well in one game this season. They've shot poorly in the other 5 games as they've been held to 42% or less from the field in all but one game in this series. Truly it is borderline amazing that the Celtics are even still alive in this playoffs given those numbers and I expect that good fortune Boston has had in this series to run out today. Look for the Bucks to improve to 5-2 SU/ATS this season when off of a game where they held their opponent to 90 points or less as the Celtics drop to 5-8 SU their last 13 games as their season ends. Though I do expect the Bucks to win outright I am grabbing the points here just in case they fall short in a heart-breaker. 8* MILWAUKEE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Friday 8* Toronto Raptors (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Raptors turned up the heat on defense in their crucial Game 5 win. Look for that to be the turning point in the series as they are now up 3-2 in the series and would certainly like to close it out Friday and avoid the pressure of a Game 7. Toronto is as high as a 2.5 point dog as of very early game day morning and the Raptors are 25-9 SU this season when coming off of a win by a double digit margin. On the season Toronto is also 31-11 SU against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Washington is 19-34 ATS as a favorite this season and also 6-11 ATS in Friday games. The Raptors are 15-4 SU in Friday games! Look for the Toronto defense to again be the difference maker in Friday's game as they close this series out and drop the Wizards to 7-12 ATS in their last 19 playoff games. The Raptors held the Wizards to 37 of 90 from the field in Game 5. More of the same here. 8* TORONTO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - This line was as high as a -5.5 and is now down to a 4.5 (with reduced juice too) as of early game day morning. I like the value we're seeing here with the Bucks on their home floor considering they had 89 shots from the field (compared to just 69 for the Celtics) in the 5-point loss at Boston on Tuesday. Prior to that game Milwaukee was hitting over 52% in this series so the likelihood of a bounce back (particularly since they are back home) is quite high. The Bucks are 33-17 SU as a favorite this season and I like them to cover the small number in the process of another SU win here. At home, Milwaukee will be the better shooting team tonight and the Celtics may struggle a bit as they feel the pressure of trying to close it out and avoid a winner takes all Game 7. Keep in mind there is some history with this as Boston is only 3-5 SU when leading in a playoff series in recent seasons. They've haven't played well in this situation but they truly have been getting a number of fortunate covers. This is why the Celtics have such a strong ATS record and are becoming a public favorite...they've been getting the cash. But tonight the public will be burned on this one because the Bucks roll at home. Remember 87 to 69 field goal attempts in Game 5 on the road at Boston. You know what is coming tonight from the hungry Bucks. 10* MILWAUKEE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #710 Wednesday 8* Toronto Raptors (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards rallied and got the win in Game 4 in DC on Sunday but the Raptors should roar back here. Toronto lost their shooting touch in Washington but are now back home where they've shot 50% or better in 3 straight games. The Raptors are 7-1 SU in their last 8 home games and are perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 played north of the border. The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games and Washington has lost 8 straight games SU away from home. The Raptors let a big lead get away from them in Game 4 and even were in good shape late in the game before a surprising collapse. They'll be ready to roll here on Wednesday. The Wizards are 4-11 SU and ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog. Toronto is 7-2 SU when tied in a playoff series and also 13-3 SU when off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Raptors get the win here and, as far as the cover, the SU winner has also been the ATS winner in each of their last 11 games! 8* TORONTO

Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The public is going to be enamored with grabbing Boston minus the short number at home considering that the home team has won all 4 games in this series. However, the issue with that is two-fold. One problem is that the luck of the Irish is likely to run out soon. Remember they had the miracle cover in Game 1 they didn't deserve as the game only went to OT because of a miracle long 3-point shot with a tenth of the second left on the clock. That was Game 1 of this series and the Bucks were catching at least +3.5 in that. Then, in Game 4, the Celtics charged back from way way down to sneak inside the number. Certainly they deserve some credit for that but, at the same time, lesson learned for Milwaukee as they let that huge lead slip away and the reality is that many were inclined to tear up Celtics tickets when they were down by 20 pretty far along in that one! Now the real key, in addition to the swing of the "lucky bounces pendulum" is the fact that the Celtics have been held to 41.5% or less from the field in 3 of the 4 games this series. Not only have the Bucks shot a ridiculous 54.2% in this series, the Celtics have never held them below 48.2% in any of the 3 games! From my viewpoint, Milwaukee is the better team in this series and should win the series. To do that they're going to have win once in Boston. This certainly looks like the best spot for that as they roll in off of those big back to back home wins and are loaded with momentum. In a situation like this, the points should prove to just be an added bonus. Grab the points  but look for the outright upset. 8* MILWAUKEE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets will be in bounce back mod here after getting destroyed in Game 3. Keep in mind, even though Houston won Game 1 it was far too close of a call and they responded in Game 2 and won by a margin of 20 points. The Rockets are 18-3 SU (15-6 ATS) versus Northwest Division opposition this season. Houston is also 17-6 SU when playing with revenge this season. That said, I also like my chances of a SU win equating to an ATS win as 11 of the Timberwolves last 13 losses have come by 8 or more points. Minnesota is also an ugly 18-34 ATS (including 9-16 ATS this season) when off of a game where they scored 115 or more points. Minnesota is also just 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they were off of a game where they shot 40% or better from three point land. The Wolves 15 of 27 shooting performance from beyond the arc certainly had a lot to do with their Game 3 win but they are not known as a 3 point shooting team and averaged only 8 per game so far this season. In other words, that 1-7 ATS stat makes perfect sense because Minny usually comes right back down to earth after a rare standout shooting performance like that. 10* HOUSTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Sunday 8* Boston Celtics (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 1:05 ET - Even though the Celtics lost by 24 in Game 3 there are some interesting stats that tell you why that was a bit of a fluke win. Certainly Milwaukee deserved to win that game but I am talking about the margin of the game. The Bucks outscored Boston by, coincidentally, 24 points as they made 16 three pointers compared to just 8 for the Celtics. It is highly unlikely that Milwaukee is going to again shoot nearly 50% from three point land again! Also, Boston lost the turnover battle in Game 3 but had won that battle in each of the first two games. The Celtics did dominate the glass Friday and they also did a better job of getting to the free throw line than the Bucks. The point is there are a lot of signs pointing to today's game being a tight one decided by a single possession. I expect the Celtics to respond and get the road win here but, if they do fall short, look for it to be by 3 or less. Boston is 19-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Also, the Celtics are 17-5 ATS when playing with revenge this season plus a stellar 8-1 SU and 6-1 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin. Milwaukee is only 8-16 ATS in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record and also went just 13-25-3 ATS in home games in the regular season. 8* BOSTON

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #719 Saturday 8* Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 5:05 ET - Now the Blazers are left for dead because they're down 3-0 in this series. However, with a big upset win on the road they can send this series back to Portland knowing that 2 of the last 3 games would be home if they can keep winning. To come all the way back is certainly improbable but not impossible and it is a game by game approach right now for the Blazers. What I particularly like about his play is the over-reaction of the markets. Thursday's Game 3 match-up opened up at a -3. Now, Saturday's Game 4 match-up is up as high as a 7.5 as of early game day morning. This is the true definition of value because there is no way Portland is laying down here and now we're getting 7.5 points instead of 3. Taking a closer look at the losses. The Blazers lost Game 3 because of 24 turnovers. They lost Game 2 because the Pelicans made 12 of 24 three pointers. They lost Game 1 because they couldn't throw it in the ocean as the saying goes as they took 98 shots but only made 38%. They lost that game by 2 and if they lose Game 4 I also expect it to be by just a single possession. The Trail Blazers are 6-2 ATS this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. 8* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - Paul George hit 8 of 11 three pointers in Game 1 for the Thunder. Many of those were contested. Sometimes guys go off in a game and that is what happened Sunday. Even with that ridiculous shooting performance by George in Game 1, Oklahoma City still only won the game by single digits. Look for this one to be either a Jazz upset or a loss by a single possession because Utah is going to shoot better than they did from three point land in Game 1. Odds favor that as well as the fact that George is certainly unlikely to again hit 73% of his threes. Coming into this series I felt the Jazz offer great value and I still feel that way despite the ATS loss in Game 1. Utah has allowed 99 points or less in 16 of their last 21 games. The Thunder have allowed an average of 109 points per game in their last 9 games. Despite the Sunday result, the Jazz are still 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, Oklahoma City is still just 6-11 SU (and 3-14 ATS!) in games against divisional opponents this season. 10* UTAH

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Tuesday NBA 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - Certainly I won't hesitate to come right back with the Bucks for Game 2 of this series after a true brutally bad beat on Milwaukee in Game 1. Undoubtedly the Bucks were the right side in Game 1 as we all saw. The game only went to OT because of a miracle long 3-pointer for the Bucks with a tenth of a second left on the clock. Of course everyone with a Bucks ticket had at least 3.5, many had 4, and some even had 4.5 to the plus side with Milwaukee. The fact that the Bucks outscored the Celtics by a dozen points in the final 3 quarters of that game says a lot about the adjustments there were able to make. I also like the fact that they barely lost Game 1 despite 10 more fouls than Boston and despite the fact that the Celtics shot above their season averages from the free throw line and from beyond the arc. Boston also had the added benefit of nobody totaling more than 4 fouls. The Bucks had two starters foul out and another starter ended up with 5 fouls. Those things effect players mentally. Look for staying out of foul trouble in Game 2 to result in an even better effort from the Bucks and, keep in mind, they pushed the Celtics to the brink in Game 1. If Boston had Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving on the floor this would be a different story but, without Irving particularly (I know Hayward was lost immediately this season), the fact is that the Celtics were very fortunate to win Game 1. They won't be so fortunate tonight against the hungry and determined Bucks. 10* MILWAUKEE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - While both teams shot exceptionally well from 3-point land in Game 1, that certainly is unlikely to continue in Game 2. So lets take a closer look at the stats that do matter. The Sixers had 17 more field goal attempts in the game. Why? Because they won the rebounding battle by 10 caroms, had 5 more steals which helped lead to a turnover edge of 7, and had 10 more points in the paint. The point is that Philadelphia did the things that win playoff basketball games and I don't see any reason for that not to continue in Game 2. The 76ers had 5 guys score at least 17 points, the Heat only had one big scorer as Olynyk had 26 points. Keep in mind, it also certainly doesn't hurt that Philly has won 17 straight games. Their confidence is sky high and this is huge for a young team. Also, about that "young" team, 4 of the Sixers 7 players who logged the most minutes in Game 1 are 30 or older. That's right, the majority of the core playing rotation in that first game was comprised of guys who are at least 30 and the 76ers top two scorers in the game, Belinelli and Redick are 32 and 33, respectively. This team is a little more balanced with veteran leadership than what casual followers realize. That said, I'll gladly take the Sixers again at home in Game 2 as they are laying a small number despite the fact they are on their own court and going for 18 wins in a row. I'll take it! Lay the points with the red hot Sixers! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #513 Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:35 ET - A line that had been as low as a -3 on the Thunder is now all the way up to as high as a 4.5 in some spots as of Sunday morning. I like the value with the underdog Jazz. Oklahoma City was only 16-26 ATS in the regular season in games against teams with a winning record. Utah finished up the regular season on a 13-7 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. The Thunder also were a horrific 2-14 ATS in games against divisional opponents this season. While Oklahoma City has the more prolific offensive production, I love defensive-minded dogs and certainly the Jazz are the better team on that end of the floor. Oftentimes good defense trumps offensive powerhouses and, that is especially true in crunch time like the playoffs or latter stages of the regular season. Sure enough, Utah is 14-2 SU (and 13-3 ATS) in their last 16 games against teams that average 106 or more points per game. The Jazz are 18-7 ATS in Sunday games including 6-1 ATS this season. Before a loss in their regular season finale, the Jazz were on a 17-3 SU run and the 3 losses were by 3, 4, and 5 points. Hence the value with the points in a game today where the road dog certainly has a great shot at the outright upset. The Thunder have covered just ONCE in their last SEVEN home games! 10* UTAH JAZZ

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Sunday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 1:05 ET - The very first numbers, the earliest, that popped up on this match-up had Boston as only a 2 point favorite. Now, as of about 4 hours before tipoff Sunday morning we're seeing lines up to 4.5 in some spots. I'll take the value with the underdog here. I know the Celtics are very well coached but there is only so much talent level from a team that can get put on the shelf and yet still perform at an ultra high level. Look at the Spurs yesterday, they've lost so much (particularly with Kawhi Leonard being out) but they are well coached with Gregg Popovich at the helm and they still got destroyed. The point is that talent is a key element in NBA match-ups and the Bucks are the much healthier team and certainly have plenty of talent. I am not saying they're going to prevail in this series but I am saying they have a great shot at an outright upset in Game 1 which means we're getting great value with the 4.5 points being offered here. Milwaukee went 11-4 SU after a loss by 10 points or more this season. They're also 3-0 SU and ATS after a game in which they allowed 130 or more points. The Bucks went 6-2 ATS on Sunday games in the regular season. Boston covered only 4 of their 11 Sunday games this season and, keep in mind, some teams do respond better to early starts like this. I like the dog here! 8* MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 10:35 ET - The Pelicans are rolling into the post-season with 5 straight wins both SU and ATS. New Orleans has averaged 121.2 points per game during this 5-game winning streak. The Pelicans also have been dialing up some defense as they've allowed 103 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. The Trail Blazers have been at the other end of the spectrum with a 1-4 SU run their last 5 games. Portland is only 2-4 SU in their last 6 games versus the Pelicans and one of those 2 wins came by just 4 points. The Blazers also are just 5-10 SU in their last 15 playoff games. New Orleans is simply "feeling it" right now and playing with a ton of confidence and shooting the ball very well. There are only 4 teams in the NBA that had more road wins than the Pelicans (24) this season. Those are the Warriors, Rockets, Celtics, and Raptors. Needless to say that is pretty elite company and the point is that this team can travel and win and I like getting the points here in Game 1 as they ride their momentum right into this post-season match-up. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Philly Special - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers have won 16 straight games but we're getting a low line here due to the Joel Embiid injury. Yes the games between Philadelphia and Miami were tight ones this season and yes the Heat won the most recent game (March 8th in Florida). However, the Sixers are playing their best basketball of the season, are at home, and are now as low as a 6-point favorite in this one. That is offering huge line value and Philly has gone 9-4 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games while Miami has gone 4-9 ATS in this same situation. Also, though the Heat have a good ATS record on the road for the season, Miami has actually covered just 2 of their last 8 games away from home! The 76ers went 27-13 ATS at home this season and they get another big home win and cover here. You know the atmosphere in Philly will be electric. Flyers won last night over the hated Penguins (Philly big hockey fans too) AND the Eagles won the Super Bowl AND Villanova won the National Championship in hoops AND the Phillies have actually won 4 straight games! Now the rabid Philly fans get their first home playoff game in 6 years! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks are wrapping up their season here and would love to finish up with a home win. However, Atlanta has the worst record in the Eastern Conference. Yes they are off of back to back wins but they are 0-3 ATS this season when off of back to back wins. Also, they now face a very "interested" opponent compared to the last two they faced. The Sixers would like to get the 3 seed in the East and they are in the drivers seat for that but they must keep winning. They need a win at Atlanta tonight and then home against the Bucks tomorrow night. In other words, they are very focused and on a mission and they also are encouraged by the fact that Joel Embiid very well could be back in time for the post-season. More good news for an already thriving franchise. Another key variable to this game, because depth is also important in late season games, is that the Sixers have two players in their rotation now that were dumped by the Hawks during this season. Don't be surprised if they come up with some big plays in this game tonight. The 76ers have won 14 straight and they've covered 10 of their last 12. The Sixers are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games versus opponents that averaged 106 or more points per game. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and their hot shooting the last two games is an aberration that won't continue and has provided some extra value here. Sixers in a road rout! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #708 Monday 10* NBA Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:35 ET - The Thunder still need to win to clinch a spot in the post-season. The Heat are already in. However, Miami doesn't want to go into the post-season playing bad basketball and they enter this game off of a 24 point loss at New York as a sizable road favorite! Note that Miami is 27-12 ATS (including 8-3 ATS this season) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Their SU record in those 11 games this season is 10-1. As for the Thunder, they enter this game off of an upset win at Houston. Prior to upsetting the Rockets, Oklahoma City had lost 4 of their 5 prior games. Also, OKC is an ugly 2-6 SU (and 1-7 ATS) this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. With this line climbing all the way to a -4 on the Thunder (after opening up at a pick'em) I love the value here with the home dog. The Heat are not going to lay down at home in this one. They don't want to be playing poorly heading into the playoffs and they will respond after the abysmal performance at New York. 10* MIAMI HEAT

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (-) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 3:35 ET - The Pistons can still finish with a .500 mark this season if they win out and they're really not showing any signs of quitting on the season even though they've been eliminated from post-season contention. As for Grizzlies, the story is much different. Memphis has won only 3 games since late January! With that said, the odds of a Detroit win here are pretty high! As for the cover, note that only 5 of the Grizzlies last 25 losses have come by less than 6 points! The Pistons are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games and are a much healthier team than the Grizzlies whom are missing a number of players and now just trying to wrap up on a disastrous season and look forward to next season. Look for Pistons to improve to 20-10 their last 30 non-conference games while Memphis drops to 3-27 SU (and 9-21 ATS) their last 30 games against Eastern Conference foes. 10* DETROIT

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have won 12 games in a row. They also have covered 10 in a row. The Cavaliers are in a back to back situation and had to use a lot of energy to come up with the late win versus the Wizards last night. This game has become even more important because of the battle for the #3 seed. If the Sixers win out (3 more games after this) they get the #3 seed. The key with the #3 seed is that the 2nd round match-up (should that team advance) would face the winner of the #2/#7 series rather than a #4 seed facing the winner of the #1/#8 series. Why is that so important? Because the #1 seed is Toronto (whom everyone wants to avoid) while the #2 seed, Boston, is further weakened by the loss of Kyrie Irving for the season. Philadelphia has proven extremely tough to beat at home as they've won 20 of 21 games played on their home floor since the calendar turned to 2018. The big difference between these teams is the 76ers play much better defense than the Cavaliers. With Cleveland also having tired legs in the 2nd game of a back to back, look for Philly to prevail here. The Cavs are 8-14 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 or more this season and also a long-term 11-18 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. Keep in mind, not only did the Sixers win on the Cavs floor recently, Philly was blasted by 22 at home by LeBron and Company much earlier this season. Time for payback here. The 76'ers are 25-7 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 or more. Look for the Sixers overall 10-0 ATS streak to make it 11 in a row with another win and cover here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks gave a valiant effort last night at Miami and very nearly got the upset win that would have prevented their division rivals from clinching a playoff spot. That said, it may seem like after losing by just a single possession on the road last night that Atlanta would definitely be the play now as a sizable dog at home. However, the Hawks not only gave a huge effort last night, they did it short-handed. Atlanta is not going to have much left in the tank tonight after, for the most part, playing a 6-man rotation yesterday. The Hawks had 6 guys who each played at least 33 minutes. Miami made full utilization of 9 guys last night as all 9 who played logged at least 20 minutes. Atlanta is simply a wounded team right now and the Heat will take advantage tonight. Miami still is seeking to improve their playoff seeding as right now they could finish as high as 6th or as low as 8th so they certainly won't lay down tonight. Look for the Heat to take advantage of tired Hawks as Atlanta plays their 3rd game in 4 nights while Miami had two days off before yesterday's win. The Heat non-covering win last night was just their 5th ATS loss in 15 divisional games this season! The Hawks are 1-12 SU (and 2-11 ATS) when they enter a game on a steak of 3 or more consecutive unders. 10* MIAMI

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Tuesday 8* Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The Raptors were knocked out of the post-season by the Cavaliers last season. Toronto was able to get some revenge with a huge home win in their first meeting with the Cavs this season. However, in the next meeting they lost at Cleveland after blowing a 15 point halftime lead. Not only does that make today a revenge game for Toronto, it also is a key game as the Raptors work toward their goal of securing the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference for the playoffs. Toronto is 9-3 ATS this season as an underdog. Cleveland is 17-42 ATS as a favorite this season. I also like the fact that the Raptors enter this game off of a loss and they haven't lost back to back games since mid-January. The Cavaliers recent run looks very impressive but, keep in mind, they've played a lot of bad teams the past few weeks. Now it is payback time for this road dog! 8* TORONTO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Monday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 9:20 ET - After both favorites covered in the Final Four, don't be surprised if there is a lot of support for the underdog in this one. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the favorite here. Lets not forget Michigan's path to get here. They beat low seeded teams (Montana and Loyola), only beat Houston because the Cougars couldn't make free throws late, did blowout Texas A & M but barely got by a Florida State team that (for this season at least) has a photo of its likeness next to the word inconsistent in the dictionary. In all seriousness though, the Wolverines have not been nearly as impressive as the Wildcats have. I have said it before and I'll say it again, Villanova is a team on a mission ever since, after winning it all in 2016, they were bounced early from the tourney by Wisconsin last year. The Wildcats haven't been just beating teams, they've been dominating them. How many people felt good about Michigan winning the game yesterday (against an 11 seed!) when they were down 7 at the half? Or still down 5 past the midway point of the 2nd half? Give the Wolverines credit for the comeback win (and a cover that did burn me as I had the Ramblers) but Villanova is not Loyola and this one will likely be close for awhile (Michigan is strong defensively) but the Wildcats will ultimately pull away in convincing fashion. Villanova has not only won 10 straight games, they are on an 8-1 ATS run. Also, the Wildcats last 9 wins have all come by double digit margins. Look for this to be another one. 10* VILLANOVA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Sunday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 1:05 ET - While it is true that the 76ers are without Joel Embiid, it is also true that this team is about much more than just Embiid. Philadelphia is not only a 9-game winning streak, they've also covered 7 straight games! That said, the Sixers at this low number (as low as 1.5 as of Saturday) are even an option on the money line (priced as low as -125) to simply win this game and make it 10 in a row. Charlotte is at home and has a respectable home record this season but what do they really have to play for here? That said, looking at Philadelphia's remaining schedule, they know a #3 seed is certainly possible as they could pass Cleveland in the standings. In the month of March, Charlotte went 1-5 ATS at home! The Hornets also in a tough back to back spot here as they were at Washington yesterday. That ugly defeat was Charlotte's 3rd straight overall ATS loss. The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in the 2nd game of a back to back their last 11 occurrences. 8* PHILADELPHIA

THE College Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #814 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 8:45 ET - Kansas just beat Duke in overtime. That was a huge win and it took OT to get it. Now, of course, the Jayhawks have had ample time to hit reset and get ready for Villanova but the Wildcats have been the much more impressive team. Keep in mind Kansas has allowed about 44% from the field in their last 3 games. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have allowed 61 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and Villanova has held their last 5 opponents to a combined 37% from the field. The Wildcats defense is simply fantastic and, on offense they have 6 key cogs in the rotation that all handle the ball very well and can score well which creates a match-up nightmare for the opposition. Having already faced the two toughest defenses (including uniqueness of Mountaineers) of the Big 12 (Texas Tech and West Virginia), Villanova is more than ready to take on the Jayhawks. Jay Wright is a helluva strong coach and this team has been on a mission ever since winning it all in 2016 but then getting bounced early by Wisconsin in last year's Big Dance. Villanova will not be denied and we're getting great line value here with the low number on this one. The Wildcats are a long-term 39-2 SU when they enter off of a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. They are locked in on D right now and most all of their wins have come by at least a half dozen points this season. In other words, you can be very comfortable laying this! All 7 of the Jayhawks losses this season came by at least 5 points. 10* VILLANOVA 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Saturday 10* Top Play Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 6:05 ET - The other match-up in the Final Four has a #1 seed matched up with another #1 seed and the line is the same as this line. Do you see my point? Here we have a #3 seed Michigan facing a #11 seed Loyola and we have the exact same line. So this is basically an invitation from the betting markets to take the much higher seed and lay a very small line. I am not buying it! The fact is that the odds makers (always very sharp and on top of their game) realize that this Loyola team is damn good and playing their best, most cohesive basketball of the season right now. The fact is that the odds makers had to put the line like this because they know they're going to have to keep the Michigan line low to balance the sharp money that will come in on the Ramblers. They fact is that Loyola has proven they can play with some top quality teams and if Michigan does defeat them I expect it to be by a single possession. Loyala has simply gone toe to toe with everyone they've faced. Michigan's record looks great but they haven't shot well in 2 of their last 3 games and also haven't shot well from beyond the arc in 3 of their 4 NCAA Tourney games. The Ramblers make a high percentage because they take quality shots and create good looks and high percentage chances. Loyola faced a tougher road to get this point and they've truly proven themselves. Michigan beat Houston by a single point and only because the Cougars didn't make free throws. The Wolverines beat the Aggies because of torrid hot shooting. But in their other game they faced Montana (much lower competition) and Florida State (a fragile, inconsistent team all season). This Ramblers team is anything but fragile or inconsistent! I'll gladly take the points and an outright upset will not surprise me in the least.  10* LOYOLA-CHICAGO

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Friday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Nuggets still fighting hard for a playoff spot. I know Denver enters off of back to back losses but they faced two of the hottest teams in the East - Philly and Toronto. Prior to those defeats the Nuggets had won back to back games and they enter this one on a 3-1 ATS run. Denver also has a rest edge here as they've been off since Tuesday while the Thunder are playing the 2nd game of a back to back as they will be coming into this one off of a game at San Antonio Thursday night. Oklahoma City is playing this game with revenge but they are 9-22 ATS this season when playing with revenge. Also, OKC is an ugly 2-13 ATS in divisional games this season. The Nuggets are 8-4 in divisional games this season. Combined edges of 43-15 (74%) favoring the road dog in this one. 10* DENVER

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Friday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Northern Colorado Bears @ 7 ET - The Bears are at home for this one but they are still over-priced in my opinion. Many will look at Illinois-Chicago's travel situation and Northern Colorado's hot ATS streak and they'll be all over the Bears here. I am going contrarian and grabbing the points with the hungry road dog in this Championship Game. The Flames have played a tougher schedule on the season and Illinois-Chicago has defended very well this season. UIC also have shut down the 3-ball very well in their last two games and this is what Northern Colorado has been relying on to achieve their blowout wins. The Bears aren't going to hit 17 of 30 threes in this one like they did against Sam Houston State Wednesday. Also, Northern Colorado has allowed 79.5 points per game their last 4 games. Teams can get spoiled when winning with offense. Subconsciously there is a tendency to let up on defense when things are going so well on the offensive end. This will prove to be the undoing of the Bears because they now face a Flames team that has allowed 61 points or less (and 33.3% or less from the field) in 2 of their last 3 games. From a technical aspect, I like the fact that UIC is 20-8 ATS in recent seasons (including 7-2 ATS and SU) this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Look for the Flames defense to be the difference here. As a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points, Northern Colorado is on an 11-16 ATS run including 2-4 ATS in recent seasons. The Bears are over-priced here. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Wednesday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Liberty Flames @ 7 ET - Even though UIC is without leading scorer Dikembe Dixson, they've been without him for both games of this tournament already and are adjusting just fine by going guard-heavier with their lineup. The fact is that Dixson wasn't a high percentage shooter and Illinois-Chicago has clearly picked up the slack. Yes, Liberty is home for this game but I feel they are getting far too much respect here. The line has gone from Liberty -5 to as high as a -6.5 as of early gameday morning. The fact is that UIC played a tougher schedule than Liberty and Illinois-Chicago is also a solid team defensively just like Liberty is. In fact, UIC is allowing only 32.8% from three point land while Liberty has allowed 36.6% from beyond the arc this season. With that said, I feel we're getting excellent line value here with the big points. UIC is a long-term 46-26 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games and that includes 5-1 ATS (and SU) this season. Liberty is a long-term 3-8 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. They're now going from facing a Central Michigan defense that played very little defense to facing a UIC team that is absolutely going to challenge their shots here. That said, Liberty is facing a much tougher test here and is over-priced. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #762 Tuesday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are off of 3 straight losses and that is certainly worthy of note here as Washington has not lost 4 straight games this entire season! The Wizards are a long-term 9-3 SU (and 10-2 ATS) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Washington also is playing this game with quadruple revenge as they've lost 4 straight versus the Spurs. This includes a loss last week at San Antonio where the Wizards gave up a big 3rd quarter run. Washington is 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season and I expect them to get revenge here. The Spurs are 14-23 SU on the road this season and have lost 8 of their last 9 away from San Antonio. 10* WASHINGTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #777 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Utah Utes @ 7 ET - This line, as of early gameday morning, has the Hilltoppers as a very small favorite. As a result, you can play the money line in the -120 range on this one and that is what I am recommending here. The Utes are the bigger name school and will attract some attention here as a small dog as a result. However, this Hilltoppers team is extremely talented and playing extremely well. As a result, we're getting fantastic line value in this one with the ability to just take Western Kentucky to win. The Hilltoppers have been ultra impressive on both ends of the floor. They are off of a 92-84 win at Oklahoma State and are 12-2 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. They've shot the ball very well in the NIT and have averaged 83.3 points on 54% shooting from the field. Also, Western Kentucky has allowed 38.9% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Utah is on a long-term 4-8 ATS run in tournament semi-final games and, in recent seasons the Utes have compiled a 6-10 ATS run in games played on a neutral court. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #742 Monday 10* Top Play San Francisco Dons (-) vs North Texas Mean Green @ 10 ET - Both teams faced a relatively easy path to reach this Championship Series of the CBI. However, don't be fooled by all the big points that North Texas has been putting up. They're facing a much tougher defensive test here. San Francisco played the tougher strength of schedule as their conference includes quality teams like San Diego and BYU and very strong teams like St Mary's and Gonzaga. I feel these tests during the season will help the Dons in terms of being ready to take down the Mean Green here. At home, San Francisco went 15-6 SU this season and that makes me very comfortable laying the short number here with the Dons. The Mean Green went just 6-11 SU in games away from home this season. 11 of their 17 losses this season came by 5 points or more. Also, long-term North Texas is 8-33 SU in road games and an incredibly poor 9-40 SU versus teams with a winning record. Look for the Dons to defend home court in Game 1 of this best of 3 series. 10* SAN FRANCISCO

Divisional Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:05 ET - Portland is off of rare back to back losses at home. The Trail Blazers had been one of the hottest teams in the league and I look for them to bounce right back here. Portland is a PERFECT 5-0 SU their L5 games away from home. Overall, in their last 18 games, the Trail Blazers have lost ATS only 3 times! In their match-ups with the Thunder this season they are a PERFECT 3-0 SU and ATS. Oklahoma City enters this game quite hot also but if you look closely at what they've done, the Thunder just don't win against playoff level teams very often at all. A big part of the reason they've been on a hot streak is because of facing a weak schedule. Most all of their wins have come against teams that wouldn't be in the playoffs if the season ended today. In fact, the Thunder are just 4-8 SU their last 12 games against teams that are currently in a playoff position or just one game out (Denver). The point is that Oklahoma City has struggled when facing better teams and they're certainly facing one of those today. It is also noteworthy that the Thunder are just 9-21 ATS when playing with revenge this season and also an ugly 2-12 ATS in divisional games. Look for the Blazers to win outright for the 6th time in their last 6 road games and for the 4th time in their last 4 meetings with OKC. Grab the points but you shouldn't need them. 10* PORTLAND 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Sunday 8* Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 2:20 ET - The Red Raiders deserve credit for getting here no doubt but this is where it ends. Texas Tech was on an 0-8 ATS run before back to back ATS wins versus Florida and Purdue. That said, I am not sold on this team taking down a Wildcats team that is very hungry. After winning it all in 2016, Villanova was upset in the 2nd round by Wisconsin last year. They haven't stopped working toward their goal ever since and the way they rallied against a quality West Virginia team whose defense can be very tough to beat says a lot about this team. Keep in mind, that Mountaineers team beat this same Red Raiders team twice in the past month. Now is the time to fade Texas Tech as they are a bit over-rated and Villanova's 33 wins have only included 2 by less than 7 points. When the Cats win, they win by a solid margin more often than not and we're getting good line value with a small number here. Texas Tech is 1-9 SU and ATS versus Big East opponents long-term. The Wildcats are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament games and get the cash again here. 8* VILLANOVA

Philly Special - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Saturday 8* Minnesota Timberwolves (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 6:05 ET - Many are looking at the Sixers here since this is a back to back spot for the Timberwolves. However, Philly has been playing quite a few weak teams leading into this match-up and I expect the 76ers to struggle with a solid Western Conference foe here. Keep in mind, Minnesota is playing this game with double revenge. They lost their last game at Philadelphia and also got upset at home by the Sixers earlier this season. The Timberwolves allowed some big runs versus the Knicks last night but they clearly were looking ahead to this game and they did hang on for the all important win. Keep in mind, the Wolves have games on deck with Memphis, Atlanta, and Dallas. In other words, out of the 5-game stretch that began at New York last night, Phlly was on the only quality team on the slate for Minny. As a result, bank on the Wolves bringing their "A game" tonight. The Timberwolves are 6-3 SU and ATS when playing with home loss revenge this season. A lot of points expected here and the 76ers are 6-14 SU in home games with a posted total of 220 or more. 8* MINNESOTA

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #518 Saturday 8* Liberty Flames (-) vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 2 ET - Classic match-up of offense versus defense and, as a general in the post-season, defense wins. The Flames have allowed just 58.7 ppg on only 38.8% shooting from the field in their home games this season. The Chippewas have allowed 79.2 ppg on 47.0% shooting from the field on the road this season. Also, after the long layoff for both teams heading into this one, it will likely prove tough on the shooters in terms of having their usual "in-season" rhythm. With that said, this is another edge for Liberty since they're playing this game on their home floor. The Flames are a long-term 6-1 ATS when playing with 7 or more days of rest between games. Central Michigan is a long-term 4-13 SU (and 6-11 ATS) in road games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 144.5 points. 8* LIBERTY

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #872 Friday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7:25 ET - The Wildcats beat Alabama by 23 points despite hitting only 39.7% from the field. That certainly says a lot about just how good this Villanova team is. The Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in neutral court games this season and also 8-2 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games the past 3 tourneys combined. West Virginia has won and covered both their games so far in the tourney but they faced an Ohio Valley team and a Conference USA team. This is certainly a much stiffer challenge here and, keep in mind, the Mountaineers were only 9-9 SU their last 18 games prior to the Big Dance. As for Nova, they faced an SEC team Sunday and that is at least a tougher challenge than what West Virginia has faced so far. Also, the Mountaineers are 5-10 SU their last 15 as an underdog and 30 of the Wildcats 32 wins this season have come by a margin of 7 points or more. As you can, odds truly favoring a win for Nova by 7 or more and that gets us the cash here! We'll take it! 10* VILLANOVA

Early NBA TV Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Game #853 Friday 8* Denver Nuggets (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Nuggets are in a fight for a final playoff spot in the West. They also have revenge in this spot as they lost at home to the Wizards early this season. Denver has a poor season record on the road but they've actually won 5 of their last 9 road games and one of those losses was that tough recent multiple-OT loss at Miami. In other words, the Nuggets are a much better road team now than they were earlier this season. The Wizards have covered only 12 of their 35 home games this season. Also, Washington has lost 6 of their last 10 games overall and 4 of those 6 losses have come on their home floor. Look for the Nuggets to improve to 7-3 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. 8* DENVER

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #878 Friday 8* Kansas Jayhawks (-) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday when I used Michigan in their blowout win over Texas A & M my analysis mentioned how the Aggies had basically played the "perfect game" versus North Carolina in their prior game and how that tends to be followed by a team falling flat in their next game. That is exactly what happened and the Wolverines dominated them last night. I look for a similar result here. Clemson played their "perfect game" versus Auburn in a blowout win Sunday and I expect them to come crashing down to earth big-time in this one. The loss of forward Donte Grantham (ACL) is going to be felt here as the Jayhawks frontcourt holds a big edge in this one in my opinion. The Tigers have shot the ball very well so far in this tourney but they certainly face a much bigger test Friday and, keep in mind, Clemson had been held to 58 points or less in 4 of their 7 games prior the Big Dance. As for the Jayhawks, they've scored at least 74 points in 10 of their last 11 games. Before allowing Seton Hall to shoot 45.3% Sunday, Kansas had held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 42.9% or less from the field. The Jayhawks are 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) last 10 NCAA Tourney games while the Tigers are a long-term 3-5 SU and ATS in the Big Dance. Also, Clemson is 0-4 ATS last 4 versus Big 12 opponents. 8* KANSAS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #818 Thursday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 7:35 ET - The Aggies played the perfect game versus North Carolina and now the public is so enamored with Texas A & M that the line on Michigan in this game is being driven down from as high as a -4 to where it is now seems headed for a -2. Sure the Aggies looked great but everything was falling in for them and coming up roses while the Tar Heels couldn't buy a bucket. It was just one of those nights but now everyone over-reacts and you know where the value is now. Keep in mind, the Aggies beat a Providence team in round one that is certainly a good team but not great. Now A & M faces a Michigan team that has won 11 straight games and has allowed less than 35% from the field so far in this tourney. The Wolverines had a very tough shooting effort in their tight win over Houston in the 2nd round but Michigan had previously shot 44% or better in 8 straight games! Keep in mind, the Aggies (prior to getting hot in the first two games of this tourney) were held under 39.4% from the field in 3 straight games. I am not sold on this Aggies team but the world is and that has created value that is truly off the charts here with a Wolverines team that was seeded #3 with good reason! Big value here. 10* MICHIGAN

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #801 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are in a back to back spot here but they got up huge last night versus Memphis and were able to rest up for tonight's game at Orlando. Also, the Sixers first two back to backs this season have seen them win both and average 115 points per game. The Magic just don't have the offense to keep up here. Orlando has lost 7 of their last 8 games. The Magic were held to 88 points or less in 5 of those 7 defeats. To put that in proper perspective, Philly has been held to 88 points or less just once this entire season. In fact, the 76ers have scored 98 points or more in 12 straight games. That's why odds are high that another Philly victory by a double digit margin is on tap here. The Sixers have won both meetings with the Magic this season by double digits and the average margin of those games was 15 points. Another rout here. Orlando 4-10 SU and ATS versus Atlantic Division opponents this season. The 76ers are 10-4 SU and ATS versus Southeast Division opponents this season. Philly is 16-10 SU and 17-9 ATS this season when off of a non-conference game. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #761 Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday this line was as high as double digits but as of early this morning it has settled in at -9 in most spots. Of course the majority are looking at this game and find it hard to justify laying this big of a spread on the road but, trust me, the odds makers knew what they were doing setting this line this high. This one has road rout written all over it. Denver is fighting for their playoff lives but off of back to back losses and that is why they will take out their frustration on a Bulls team that has nothing to play for at this point in the season. Also, helping our cause here is the fact that Chicago is quite banged up right now. Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS their last 5 meetings with the Bulls but only won by a single point in their non-covering win over the Bulls at home earlier this season. Chicago shot unusually well in that game and that won't happen again here. The Bulls have been held 45.1% or less from the field in 6 of their last 8 games. After the epic multiple-overtime loss at Miami Monday, Denver is fired up about responding huge here at Chicago. The Nuggets are a long-term 20-10 ATS after a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. The Bulls have lost 10 of their last 14 games and the Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 wins. In other words, odds favor a big win and cover for the road fave in this one. 10* DENVER

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #765 Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 8 ET - Even though the Cowboys had a shot at the cover versus Stanford Wednesday, they certainly were fortunate to even have that end-game opportunity as they were unimpressive again. For the 4th straight game Oklahoma State was held under 41% from the field. I look for the cold shooting to catch up with them here because Western Kentucky comes into this game red hot. The Hilltoppers have shot better than 53.5% in each of their two games in this tournament and it is not like they played push-overs. Western Kentucky faced Boston College and USC. Also, prior to allowing 46.8% from the field against the Trojans, the Hilltoppers had held each of their 3 prior opponents to 38.5% or less from the field. Western Kentucky allowed just 59.3 points per game in those 3 contests. The Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and also are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The Cowboys are 2-9 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, Oklahoma State has gone 0-3 ATS this season when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY 

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #665 Tuesday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) @ Marquette Golden Eagles @ 7 ET - Yes Marquette has home court edge but there is a reason they opened at nearly a pick'em in this game. Now that the line is all the way up to a 2.5 as of early gameday morning it is "go time" with this one. The big edge the Nittany Lions have here is on the defensive end. Additionally, Penn State is loaded with confidence because they've notched a number of significant victories away from home this season. PSU just got a big win at Notre Dame here in the NIT and, previous to this, the Nittany Lions defeated Ohio State 3 times this season (including on a neutral floor and in Columbus) and they also lost at Purdue by just 3 points! Penn State has proven multiple times that they can raise their level away from home against top quality competition. The Golden Eagles shoot the 3-ball well but so too do the Nittany Lions. The key is on the defensive end where Penn State has allowed less than 30.9% from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 6 games. By comparison, Marquette has given up 35% or more from three point land in 8 of their last 11 games! On the season the Golden Eagles are allowing a dozen points more per game than PSU is. The Nittany Lions are 10-4 ATS in tournament games and 7-2 ATS their last 9 games versus teams that averaged 77 points or more per game. Marquette is 6-12 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more in their prior game. 10* PENN STATE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #618 Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 7 ET - This is a #2 vs #3 match-up in the NIT and the line may seem high given the small difference in seeding between these teams. However, don't be fooled, the Cowboys should absolutely win this game by double digits. Oklahoma State shot very poorly versus Florida Gulf Coast in the opening round but still won that game by double digits. Given that the Cowboys are again at home and off of a rare poor shooting performance, I expect a big game from Oklahoma State on the offensive end. As for the other end of the floor, the Cowboys have been playing much better than the Cardinal. OSU has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 41.7% or less from the field. Stanford, on the other hand, has allowed 44.7% or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Cardinal have allowed 83 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The Cowboys have given up 68 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. Oklahoma State has covered 6 of their last 7 games. Stanford is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 true road games. The Cardinal are 3-11 ATS their last 14 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 9-5 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s and they get the job done again here. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Sunday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles (+) vs Xavier Musketeers @ 8:40 ET - Here we go again. The odds makers, in the eyes of the public and therefore the betting markets, don't know what they're doing. After all, why would they make #1 seed Xavier only a 4 point favorite over the #9 seed Florida State? Guys I have said it many times before and I'll say it again. The odds makers are sharp. They know what they're doing. That doesn't mean that a method like this works all the time (because crazy things do happen in games from time to time as we all know) but the point is that this method does work quite often. That method is being contrarian and, of course, everyone has pounded on the #1 seed Musketeers here and driven this line all the way up to a 6 as of gameday morning. I'll gladly grab the other side and take the generous points. The Seminoles have more than enough to make up for the potential absence of Terance Mann and played Friday's game looking like the team they were early this season. Remember the Noles were 12-2 in early January after a win over North Carolina. This is a talented team that is very dangerous when they raise their game to another level and they proved that to be true again with their dominating effort versus Missouri in round one. Xavier is just 1-3 ATS in neutral court games this season and FSU is a long-term 6-1 ATS as a neutral court dog of 3.5 to 6 points AND all 6 of those wins were OUTRIGHT wins! Another potential upset here but at least a cover the way I handicap this one! 10* FLORIDA STATE

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #710 Sunday 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 5:15 ET - The Aggies shot the ball surprisingly well and still barely covered versus Providence in their round one win. I am not sold on Texas A & M just yet. Keep in mind they had been held under 39.4% from the field in each of their 3 games prior to the win over the Friars. Also, the Aggies had been held to 30% or less from 3-point land in 5 of their 7 prior games. Now Texas A & M faces a Tar Heels team that averages 82 points per game and is shooting 36.6% from beyond the arc on the season. UNC didn't cover against Lipscomb in the opening round but of course they didn't care, that was just a "win and move on" game and they were looking ahead to this tougher game that would be against Providence or the Aggies. Enter Texas A & M and North Carolina will be ready. They're playing their best basketball of the season and have won 10 of their last 13 games. The Heels non-cover versus Lipscomb was just their 4th ATS loss in those 13 games. Aggies 10-16 ATS as an underdog. UNC 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS in March games. This is the time of year when the Tar Heels kick things up a notch and I really like them to make a run in this year's post-season as their entire starting five is made up of upperclassmen. 8* NORTH CAROLINA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #713 Sunday 8* Butler Bulldogs (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 12:10 ET - The Bulldogs lost by 15 to Purdue in mid-December despite a huge edge in offensive rebounds and despite having 18 more field goal attempts. Butler is a long-term 26-9 ATS in NCAA Tournament games and that includes 5-1 ATS in recent seasons. Purdue is 5-12 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s this season. Don't you find it interesting that the #2 seed Boilermakers opened as only a 3.5 point favorite over a #10 seed Bulldogs team? Precisely! You know where I am going with this. It is the type of contrarian play I love. The masses will be lining up on the small favorite and I am grabbing the points! 8* BUTLER

NCAA 2nd Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #533 Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 8:40 ET - The Gators had some slip-ups this season but when they come to play they can play with anybody. That said, their performance against St Bonaventure in Round 1 showed me they're ready to go here in the Big Dance. Keep in mind, Florida beat Cincinnati, Kentucky, and Texas A & M in the regular season plus also beat Gonzaga by 6 and lost to Duke by just 3 points! Texas Tech's 10 point win over Stephen F Austin is the perfect example of a deceiving final score as the Lumberjacks were really in that game most of the way against the Red Raiders. It was the 8th straight Texas Tech game where the Red Raiders did not cover and I expect this one to make it 9 in a row. Keep in mind, TT entered that game on a 2-5 SU run and that included losses to West Virginia twice and Kansas as well. The point is that the Red Raiders have had trouble against the top teams in the nation and they're in trouble again here in my opinion. Texas Tech is on a 5-13 ATS run against teams with a winning record! The Gators are a long-term 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS versus Big 12 opponents and also an overall 12-4 ATS in games on a neutral court with a line between pick'em and +3. They get the job done again here! 10* FLORIDA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #527 Saturday 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates (+) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 7:10 ET - The #1 seed Jayhawks are laying a very small number against the #8 seed Pirates. Of course you know what that means for a contrarian guy like me. When something looks "off" or "too easy" you know where I'll be more often than not...on the other side! Many will be lining up to lay a very small number with a top-seeded Kansas team but I believe the odds makers were very sharp in the way they set this line because Seton Hall is built well for an upset here. If the Pirates do fall short look for it to be by just a single possession (3 points or less). Seton Hall is loaded with upper classmen, is solid both in the frontcourt and backcourt, and they are hungry after first round exits from the tourney each of the past two seasons. Now, after getting past NC State in the first game, look for the Pirates to make some noise in this tourney. The Jayhawks have been hot but Seton Hall is on a 6-0 ATS run. Also, Kansas only got 4 points from their bench in the win over Penn Thursday. The Quakers hung around with the Jayhawks until midway through the 2nd half. The Pirates can do more than just "hang around" here and the thin bench of Kansas could do them in here especially with 7-footer Udoka Azubuike still dealing with a knee injury for the Jayhawks. The Pirates are a long-term 26-11 ATS as an underdog and Kansas is 0-3 ATS the last 3 times they've held an opponent to 66 points or less. They held Pennsylvania to 60 points Thursday. 10* SETON HALL

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #538 Saturday 8* Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs Buffalo Bulls @ 5:15 ET - With all due respect to the Bulls for a strong season and an upset win over Arizona Thursday, this is not the MAC! Yes, I know they just beat a Pac-12 team and certainly deserve credit for that but they shot lights out while Arizona made only 11% of their three pointers in that game! Now Buffalo faces an SEC school known for being a basketball powerhouse. I know it has been a "down season" by Wildcats standards but Kentucky is now playing their best basketball of the season. UK has won 8 of their last 9 games both SU and ATS and they're ready to make a run here in the Big Dance. Look for Buffalo to drop to 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in games versus SEC opponents. As for the Wildcats, they are peaking at the right time and are 15-2 SU (and 13-4 ATS) in tournament games. 8* KENTUCKY

NCAA 1st Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #875 Friday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (+) vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 9:40 ET - TCU started the season 12-0 and then wrapped up the season going 9-11. The Horned Frogs numbers on offense are impressive but they leave a lot to be desired on the defensive end. Facing Syracuse is going to be a problem as the Orange play a unique style that is tough to prepare for when you're not use to seeing it. This games has a low total posted on it because the odds makers are expecting Syracuse to dictate the tempo. That said, it is certainly noteworthy that TCU is an ugly 4-7 SU in neutral court games with a posted total in the 135 to 139.5 range. Also, as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Horned Frogs have gone 2-6 ATS and all 6 of those losses were upset defeats which is what I am expecting here. It actually helps that the Orange had the play-in game on Wednesday and they certainly impressed in their ability to slow down a high-powered Arizona State offense. Syracuse should do the same thing to TCU here. The Orange will take advantage of a Horned Frogs team that will struggle with its shooting after the long layoff. Syracuse is 11-2 ATS (including 4-0 ATS in recent seasons) when they are a neutral court dog of 3.5 to 6 points. TCU went 1-4 SU this season when held to 68 points or less in a game and the Orange allowed 68 points or less in 22 of their 34 games this season. 10* SYRACUSE

Philly Special - Rickenbach NBA Game #804 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - Though this is a back to back spot for Philadelphia, there is no shortage of motivation here and clearly the 76ers are the better team of course. This is the first time that the Sixers are hosting the Nets since Brooklyn thoroughly embarrassed them in a 141-118 loss last April. Philly owes it to their home fans to get payback for that one here and, of course, the Sixers need every win they can get right now as they battle for playoff positioning. The line on this one opened up at 11.5 but is all the way down to an 8.5 as of early Friday morning. Of course that has added to the value here and the Sixers are 20-10 ATS at home this season and 8-3 ATS their last 11 games versus teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Brooklyn is 1-11 SU (and 4-8 ATS) in divisional games this season and the 76ers avenge last season's embarrassing home loss and, though this is a back to back spot, they still crush the Nets. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Friday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (+) vs Creighton Bluejays @ 6:50 ET - Creighton's overall numbers on the season look impressive but they rely heavily on outside shooting and that has not traveled well for them this season. The Bluejays are strong at home but on the road they've knocked down a more modest 34.8% of their threes while allowing 39.1% three-point shooting to their opponents. Creighton averages 77.2 ppg on the road while allowing 82.3 ppg away from home! While most all teams have a home/road dichotomy the Bluejays is at the far end of the spectrum and I will take advantage by backing Kansas State here. The Wildcats were no match for Kansas in the Big 12 tournament but, prior to that, the Cats had held 7 of their last 9 opponents to 67 points or less. That holds significance here as the Bluejays (prior to a tight loss in the Big East tournament) had allowed 83 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. Creighton is 2-8 ATS their last 10 lined games. The Wildcats were 5-3 ATS their last 8 games away from home prior to the ugly loss to the Jayhawks. The Cats are 4-0 SU the last 4 times they've played with 5 or 6 days of rest between games while the Bluejays are just 2-2 SU as their shooting tends to go cold after a layoff. Also, Creighton is on an ugly 3-9 ATS run versus teams with a winning record. Going contrarian here. Give me the lower seed! 10* KANSAS STATE

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #887 Thursday 8* Murray State Racers (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 4 ET - Plenty of veteran leadership in the form of upperclassmen on this Murray State team. Yes they come from the Ohio Valley Conference but these guys can play and they are loaded with confidence right now. That makes for a dangerous combination for West Virginia to contend with here. Sure, the Mountaineers played the tougher schedule on the season but the Racers enter this game having won 13 games in a row. Murray State has covered 4 games in a row and only 1 of their 5 losses this season came by more than 5 points. Keep in mind, West Virginia is only 9-9 SU since starting the season 15-1. The Mountaineers have allowed 50% from the field in their last 4 games. The Racers have only allowed about 40% from the field in their last 10 games! Murray State went 3-1 SU and ATS versus teams that average 77 points or more per game this season. West Virginia went 3-7 ATS this season versus teams that average 77 points or more per game. This could be one of the upsets many have been looking for and if the Racers do fall short I still expect it to be a game in which they keep it within single digits. 8* MURRAY STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #867 Friday 8* Providence Friars (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 12:15 ET - Friars 32-18 ATS L50 as an underdog. Providence covered 10 of last 15 games versus teams with a winning record. Overall, Friars covered 5 of last 6 games and the lone ATS loss narrowly missed covering. Providence has been playing very well on the defensive end. Aggies enter this game on just a 3-4 SU (and 2-5 ATS run!) and are over-rated in my opinion. After yesterday was nearly devoid of upsets, you're going to see a few more today on Friday and though this is only a "mild one" (10 seed over a 7 seed) it is an upset I am expecting. Grab the points just in case but Texas A & M likely to struggle again here. Aggies only 2-7 ATS (and 2-7 SU!) when off of a loss in conference action and Friars have played the tougher competition in recent games which has them battle-ready here! 8* PROVIDENCE

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #722 Thursday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (-) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 9:20 ET - Time and time again when Alabama faced a big game it seems they tensed up and could not make shots. The Crimson Tide shooting performance to close out the season was abysmal and I don't foresee any reason that should change here as Bama faces the pressure of a "win or go home" situation. The Tide were held under 38% from the field in 3 of their last 5 games. Alabama averaged just 60.3 points per game in those 3 games. The Hokies certainly haven't been lighting up the scoreboard of late but they faced a slew of tough opponents and Virginia Tech at least shot 44% or better until they were held to 42% in their loss to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament. The Hokies have wins over Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia this season. They have proven they can beat the best teams in the nation and I think they step up here and crush Alabama. The Crimson Tide have lost 6 of their last 8 games and Donta Hall is listed as questionable here. Hall leads the team in rebounds and blocked shots and is 2nd in scoring. Alabama is 0-4 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more in their prior game. The Hokies are 14-5 ATS in first round tournament games and also went 7-2 ATS this season in non-conference games. Compared to the Crimson Tide, the Hokies are the much better shooting team including from three point land. 10* VIRGINIA TECH

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #732 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (-) vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 7:20 ET - On the surface, it would seem logical to grab the points with the team that has won 9 straight games and gone 8-1 ATS in the process. Of course, defying logic is a big part of being a contrarian and the fact is that the Aztecs are going to have their hands full with a Cougars team that is also playing their best basketball of the season. Houston, prior to losing by a single point to a quality Cincinnati team in their conference tournament, had won 10 of their 11 previous games. Both these teams play solid defense but the Cougars numbers are even better and, again, they face a tougher schedule than San Diego State does. Also, Houston is the much better shooting team from three point land in comparison with the Aztecs. San Diego State is a long-term 7-11 ATS (and 6-12 SU) as an underdog and only 3 of Houston's 27 wins this season came by less than 4 points. Only 2 of San Diego State's 10 losses came by less than 4 points. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS when off of a game where they were held under 60 points and they are also a perfect 4-0 ATS this season when off of a loss to a conference foe. 10* HOUSTON

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #735 Thursday 8* Loyola (IL) Ramblers vs Miami (FL) Hurricanes @ 3:10 ET - Miami played the much tougher schedule but this Loyola team is a very strong one on both ends of the floor. The concern for the Hurricanes is not only that they went just 4-4 SU in their last 8 games (Ramblers lost only 5 games all season), but it is also the fact that the Canes allowed 52.8% or higher from the field in 3 of the 4 wins! A lack of defense kills a team come tournament time and I like the way Loyola has played on that end of the floor. The Ramblers enter this game on a 10-game winning streak and have won 17 of their last 18. The lone loss came by just 2 points. By the way, the Hurricanes recent wins in their unimpressive 4-4 SU run their last 8 games have come by an average margin of just 2 points per game. That is why there is certainly some additional value by having the points in this one even though they're small. The Ramblers have allowed an average of just 54 points per game their last 5 games! Loyola is 15-1 SU their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Miami is 4-10 ATS their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. This has the makings of an upset (11 seed over 6 seed) and that is why this line is where it is! Grab the small dog in this one! 8* LOYOLA (IL)

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Thursday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs Rhode Island Rams @ 12:15 ET - The Rams have the better record by far, they are the higher seed, and this line is an enticing to the markets to take Rhode Island and lay the small number. Of course you know what that means where there appears to be an enticement on the board. It means it usually doesn't pan out and it certainly is something that bears digging deeper into. In this case, a huge key is that Oklahoma played a much tougher schedule than the Rams did. The strength of schedule edge that the Sooners had this season will serve them well in crunch time in this game. Though I don't expect it to last throughout the tournament, I do expect freshman phenom Trae Young to have a huge game here. Oklahoma is 9-3 SU in their last 12 March games and they went 10-2 SU in non-conference games this season. Though the Rams have the better defensive stats by far, Rhode Island is actually 2-5 ATS when facing a team that allows 77 points or more per game. Also, the Rams are 6-11 ATS when off of a loss in conference action. 8* OKLAHOMA

Philly Special - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Wednesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 8 ET - Yes the Nittany Lions are home and yes they won 20 games this season. However, Penn State displayed awful shooting in the Big Ten Tournament. The Nittany Lions averaged 36% from the field in their 3 Big Ten Tourney games. Now PSU hosts a Temple team that relishes the role of underdog and that shot very well in their conference tournament. The Owls shot 48% from the field and that included a match-up with Wichita State! Temple comes into this game with plenty of confidence after the way they battled with the Shockers and 6 of their last 10 losses have come by 8 points or less. On the season the majority of their losses were by 8 points or less and I love the big dog value we're being offered here in a game for Pennsylvania pride. As a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points Temple is 3-1 ATS and all 3 victories were SU upset wins! Also, the Owls are 11-3 ATS in tournament games the last 3 seasons combined. Yes PSU is definitely improved and they are at home here. But still are they truly 10 points better in this situation? I don't believe so. They've won only half of their last 4 home meetings with Temple. The Owls have won the other 6 meetings. So the point is that the Nittany Lions are only 2-8 SU their last 10 games versus Temple and I know that Penn State is improved and the Owls are down a little overall this season. But when you look at the way these teams shot in the conference tourneys too and how that is likely to carry over here, the road dog has some big scoring runs in them here. 10* TEMPLE