Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #751 Tuesday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays @ Michigan Wolverines @ 6:30 ET - Of course the Wolverines have the home court edge here and they also have a size edge. However, in my mind those are the only edges they have here and it won't be enough for Michigan. I am expecting Creighton to pull of the upset in this one but am grabbing the points for "insurance". The Wolverines are going through a transition in more ways than one this season. They lost a fantastic head coach in John Beilein and now have Juwan Howard at the helm and he brought in two new assistants as well. Additionally, Howard's team lost a ton of talent and big scorers from last seasons team. While they do have a size edge here they did not take good care of the ball in their non-covering win over Appalachian State to open the season last week. A great way to beat size is to create turnovers and then a run and gun team like Creighton can kill you from outside with its sharp-shooters in transition. The Bluejays are already dialed in from downtown as they have made 12 of 25 three pointers in their season-opening win last week. Keep in mind that 3-point shooting also results in longer caroms off the rim when they do miss and that further negates the inside edge that Michigan has in this match-up. I like Creighton a lot here with their strong experience edge and system edge as Bluejays head coach Greg McDermott has been the head coach here for this entire decade. 10* CREIGHTON

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Monday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:35 ET - Both teams off ugly losses but part of the reason that the Grizzlies got blasted was that they were in the 2nd night of a back to back. Memphis made the decision NOT to play their leading scorer Ja Morant AND also Brandon Clarke (back) did not play. Though Clarke's back has been an ongoing issue I really believe his absence was more of a maintenance thing than anything else and so I expect him back tonight even though he is listed as questionable. Of course Morant will for sure be back in action tonight. This Spurs team is nothing like the San Antonio teams of the past and for them to be favored by double digits here is a little aggressive in my opinion. They just haven't been consistent on the defensive end and LaMarcus Aldridge is coming off a horrible game. Again, both teams off ugly losses but the Spurs had just as many three pointers as Boston in San Antonio's Saturday loss. As for Memphis, they saw red hot Dallas have 6 more threes than them (18 points) in the 16 point loss. This is a stat I like to look at as sometimes hot 3 point shooting does teams in. Grizzlies won the rest of the game by 2 points even being down 2 players. The Spurs lost their game by 20 points inside the arc. Something to think about for sure and I don't see Memphis losing this game by anything more than single digits. I look for a hard-fought game with plenty of intensity from the Grizzlies as well. 10* MEMPHIS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #731 Monday 10* Top Play Drake Bulldogs (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7 ET - Even though the Bulldogs will be without Tremell Murhpy this season, this is still a solid Missouri Valley team that is capable of hanging around withing single digits of the Bearcats in this one. Yes, Drake faced an out-classed foe in their season opener but the fact they knocked down 17 of 29 three pointers is a good sign that the Bulldogs shooters are dialed in. Cincinnati is off an opening loss to Ohio State so they faced much tougher competition and that had a little something to do with their 4 of 21 shooting performance from 3-point land. However, the Bearcats struggles with the outside shot could loom large here because you know the Bulldogs are likely to bring an intense effort here with a rare shot at knocking off a "top tier" team. Drake wants to make the most of this opportunity while the Bearcats are simply looking at this game as a "win and move on to bigger things" type of game. Look for the scrappy Bulldogs to keep this one much closer than many are expecting. The Bulldogs are 15-3 ATS off a game in which they were a home favorite. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS when off a road loss. 10* DRAKE

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #538 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 6:05 ET - The 76ers are off 3 straight losses but all were on the road and this included time without Joel Embiid too. Yes, Ben Simmons is out now but they were without him at Denver on Friday and still led that game by 21 points in the 4th quarter and yet lost. So what happens now? The fired up Sixers are back at home and hosting a Hornets team that they are fully capable of also building a 21-point lead against. The difference is that Charlotte is not Denver and plus this game is at Philly. Look for the 76ers to build that huge lead and then never take the foot off their gas here. Adding to the value is that the Hornets are in a back to back here as they were home against New Orleans last night. It was yet another loss too last night for a bad Charlotte team and the 76ers are in need of taking a team behind the woodshed for a beating. The Hornets should provide the perfect punching bag. This is just the 3rd home game of the season for the Sixers. They won the first two games by an average margin of 18 points per game. I look for this one to be decided by close to 20 points as well. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #719 Sunday 10* Top Play Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens (+) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 3:30 ET @ Silver Spurs Arena in Kissimmee, FL - The Roadrunners were a very streaky team last season. They have lost their first 3 games this season, including back to back games here in the Sunshine Slam and I don't see them turning it around here playing a 3rd game in 3 days. Granted, Delaware is in the same situation in terms of 3 games in 3 days but they are 3-0 on the season and really "feeling it" right now. Conversely, UTSA came into this season knowing their backcourt of Jackson and Wallace were going to be the key. Both have logged heavy minutes in each game the past two days and neither guy is shooting well this season. Both are struggling from beyond the arc too. The trademark of this Fightin' Blue Hens team is defense so, the point is, it is highly unlikely that Jackson and/or Wallace get going to day. Look for the Blue Hens to stay hot here while the Roadrunners continue to struggle as they just can't get their shots to fall right now. Grab the defensive-minded dog here against a Runners team that is very offensively-challenged when Jackson and Wallace are out of sorts and that is certainly the case right now. 10* DELAWARE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #601 Saturday 10* Top Play Massachusetts Minutemen (-) @ Fairfield Stags @ 1 ET - Fairfield is in a rebuilding mode and will often struggle to score points this season. That factor certainly played a role in their season opening loss to Bucknell and I expect it to also be a factor here. Massachusetts is still in a rebuild mode too but it began last season and their talent level and scoring ability will simply prove to be too much for the Stags in this one. UMass opened their season with win over UMass-Lowell and, though that was expected, the Minutemen were impressive nonetheless as they won by double digits as a 7 point favorite in that one. I was impressed with the Minutemen piling up both steals and blocks in their game against UMass-Lowell so it wasn't all about the offense. That being said Massachusetts did shoot the ball quite well and they now take on a Fairfield team that struggled with its shooting in their opening game. More of the same here in a game in which, in my opinion, the Stags just don't have the talent level to keep up with the Minutemen. 10* MASSACHUSETTS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #794 Friday 10* Top Play Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens (+) vs Oakland (MI) Golden Grizzlies @ 5 ET @ Silver Spurs Arena in Kissimmee, FL - Both teams are off easy wins in their season openers as they faced outclassed opponents. Now things toughen up here in the 2nd game of the season for each. This is a neutral site game down in Florida and I like having the points on my side in this one. Yes I am aware of the injury situation for Delaware at the guard spot but their backcourt was a strong point heading into a season and they have enough talent and experience there even if Nate Darling and Ryan Allen are each unable to go in this one. The Golden Grizzlies weakness coming into this season is they lost a lot of talent from last season's team including their starting backcourt. Oakland (MI) is on their way down in the Horizon League at least in terms of falling a few notches while Delaware is on their way up and could finish among the top teams in the Colonial Athletic Association this season. They are preaching defensive intensity on one end of the floor and taking care of the ball on the other end of the floor and the players are a cohesive group that has "bought in" to the system heading into the season. The scrappy Fightin' Blue Hens have a great shot at the win here which means of course I like having a couple buckets on my side of the bet as well. Delaware, when on a neutral floor with their line ranging from a pick'em to a +5.5 has gone 9-4 ATS. Also, when off a game in which they scored 95 points or more, the Fightin' Blue Hens went a perfect 3-0 ATS the past two seasons. They enter this game with plenty of confidence and make for a scrappy underdog. The Golden Grizzlies are 1-3 SU in their last 4 neutral court games and have struggled in the role of favorite in recent seasons. The past two years Oakland is 13-24 ATS as a favorite. More of the same here. 10* DELAWARE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #574 Thursday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:35 ET - I see this is as a great value spot for backing the Spurs. From a situational standpoint it doesn't get much better than this and plus the line value is there. The Thunder enter this match-up having won 2 straight but they are 0-2 on the road this season. San Antonio enters this game having lost 2 straight but they are 3-1 at home this season. Based on this line dropping to a 4.5 after opening as a high as a 5.5 globally, the markets are basically saying these teams are very nearly equal and the only edge that SA has is home court. But hold that thought for a second as you carry on to the next point. Coming into this season Oklahoma City was projected by bookmakers to lose about 50 games and have a 32-50 season based on their win total projection by odds makers. The Spurs on the other hand were projected to finish about 10 games above .500 as they were projected to finish 46-36. In the span of just a couple weeks NOT that much has changed to justify this line. San Antonio is going to come out very hungry at home and I see them winning this game by close to double digits. Note that the Spurs are 20-12 ATS when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. Also, as a home fave of 6 or less points SA is 26-13 ATS! Lay it with the home team in this one as the host has covered 5 straight in this series and all signs point to that trend continuing here! 10* SAN ANTONIO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #695 Wednesday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) @ Boston College Eagles @ 6 ET - I know the Demon Deacons are off back to back 11-20 seasons and also return just 1 starter this season. However, there is a different feel in Wake Forest this season. This teams has a certain camaraderie and has jelled well in the off-season as they lead into this season opener. Also, this is as much a play against Boston College as it is a play on the Demon Deacons. The Eagles got bad news in September when they found out Wynston Tabbs would be out for the season with injury. Why is this so important? With Tabbs in the lineup last season Boston College went 10-5 and without him they went 4-12! This is a major loss for a team that I have projected to possibly finish dead last in the tough 15-team ACC. While the Eagles are sliding the wrong direction, I would not be surprised to see the Demon Deacons move into the top 10 in the ACC. Despite returning only one starter, Wake Forest does have depth and experience in the backcourt and guard play is critical to early season success. After winning 4 straight meetings, the Demon Deacons have lost back to back meetings with the Eagles and this is the perfect spot for payback at Boston College! Grab the points with the road dog as BC loses for the 7th time in their last 8 ACC games. 10* WAKE FOREST

Ranked Rout - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #604 Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes (+) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 6:30 ET - Last year's game was tied at 50 about 6 minutes into the 2nd half and that game was at Louisville. The Cardinals then pulled away and won big but there are a couple of key factors that bear mentioning about this. One is that the Hurricanes were short-handed last season due to the David Hernandez ordeal that came out the night before the season started. Another key factor here is that the Cardinals Malik Williams led Louisville that night in rebounds (11) and was second in points (19) and he is out for tonight's game with a foot injury. Thirdly, this game is at Miami and the Cards (ranked #5 in the polls) certainly have a target on their backs right now. Yes the Hurricanes are without Keith Stone but he didn't play in last season's game and the Canes, in a much tougher situation than they are now, put up quite a fight for the majority of that game. Louisville is very talented and is set for a very strong season but the loss of Williams is a significant one. The Canes have much more depth in the frontcourt this season than they did last year and they can make up for Stone's absence here. Also, I really like the Hurricanes backcourt as point guard Chris Lykes is a 5'7 dynamo and Dejan Vasiljevic is a strong shooting guard that tied for the team lead with 19 points in last year's meeting with the Cards. The Italy trip this Miami team made heading into this season also helped the team jell and they come into the new season in a much different frame of mind than last season. Are they at Louisville's level when the Cardinals are 100%? Of course not. But can they win this game at home when the Cards are without Williams? You better believe it and, though they may fall short I would expect it to be by only a bucket or two. The value is with the home dog in this one. Louisville drops to 8-13 ATS as a road favorite when in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The Cardinals enter this game on an overall 3-6 ATS run. The Hurricanes are 12-2 SU in their last 14 November games and are ready for a fast start this season. 10* MIAMI

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #505 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Perfect set up for a road rout. Both the Nuggets and Magic are coming off ugly losses but Orlando has been struggling to score points. As for Denver, I feel they are the much stronger team and so I like having them and laying just a short number here on the road. The fact is they are off back to back losses but that was after a 3-0 start to the season. After the embarrassment of being the Pelicans first victim this season (New Orleans had been 0-4 entering Thursday's game), coach Malone was extremely fired up. He'll have the Nuggets ready to go here after back to back losses. Orlando would love to respond too (after an ugly loss) but they are at a disadvantage here as they are without rest (played last night) and they simply are not as talented of a team as the Nuggets are. The road rout is on in this one. 10* DENVER

Game of the Week (Eastern Conference) - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #562 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the Hawks injury situation. This includes the fact that Trae Young, Atlanta's young star and last week's NBA Player of the Week, is out for this game. However, he got hurt just 2 minutes into the game at Miami on Tuesday and yet the Hawks still hung around in that game. Now, at home in Atlanta, and with extra time to figure out game planning without Young available for this game, look for the Hawks to be ultra competitive tonight. They may again fall short to the Heat but, if they do, I would expect it to be only by a bucket or two. Atlanta has a lot of youth behind Young at point guard but it helps young players when they are at home. The fact we're getting more than a half dozen points here at home has me liking the Hawks plenty in this match-up. Miami is on a 4-15 ATS run when off a home win by a double digit margin. Also, the Heat are 1-5 ATS when off a divisional win by a double digit margin. Atlanta has 4 days off after this game so they're going to want to make the most of this opportunity. In other words, there is no holding back and the Hawks will leave it all on the floor in terms of their effort tonight. Keep in mind, prior to the road loss Tuesday, Atlanta was 2-1 this season and the only loss had come by two points! Again, I know the Hawks are without Young here but they are being undervalued in this spot based on the Tuesday results at Miami. Look for the home dog to improve to 26-18 when off a blowout loss by a margin of 15 or more points. Payback time. 10* ATLANTA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #542 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers opened their season a week okay versus Boston at home. Philly has since been on the road for a pair of games and after this game the Sixers will not be home again until November 10th. That means, because of an upcoming 4 game road trip out west, the 76'ers only home game between October 23rd and November 10th is tonight on Wednesday. You can bet (literally!) that they're going to make the most of it. I have had my eyes on this situation for awhile and everything set up perfectly and that is why I am going with a big play here. The Timberwolves remain undefeated on the season courtesy of a huge comeback win against the Heat on Sunday. The Wolves were actually down 7 points heading to the 4th quarter of that game and yet miraculously won the game by 7 points. It was a miracle cover for those whom had Minnesota -6.5 as the game was tied with just a couple minutes to go and the Timberwolves trailed for plenty of the 3rd and 4th quarters. In any event it sets this one up nicely because Minnesota is over-valued right now. They are 3-0 on the season but their road wins came at Brooklyn and Charlotte. The Nets and Hornets are a combined 2-5 on the young season. The fact is that Minnesota came into this season projected to win about 35 games while Philly came into this season projected to win about 55 games. The Sixers won their only other home game of the season by 14 against the Celtics and they can win this game by double digits too. The point is that, given the above, this line should be in the double digit range but it is well short of that and I am all over the value here in going against a Wolves team whose luck runs out tonight. The Sixers know how to dial up the defense, particularly when at home, and Minnesota won't find the openings they did late in their win over Miami on Sunday. That one burned us as we have the Heat +7 in that game and had no business being handed a tough push. Today we get payback as the Sixers make the most of their lone home game in about a 3-week stretch. They are going to give a tremendous effort at home tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #505 Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Minnesota Timberwlves @ 7:05 ET - I am very well aware of the old "rule" about never playing a team off an OT win in a back to back spot but there is simply too much value to ignore in this one. I also like the fact that it is early in the season and also yesterday's game was an early game for Miami and then it was a short flight from Milwaukee to Minneapolis. That being said, we're getting some extra value (+7) here because of the situation and I feel the Timberwolves are being given far too much respect. Keep in mind that this is a team that came into the season projected to win about 35 games while the Heat came into this season projected to win about 45 games. What I like about Miami here is their resiliency. They were down big on the road against the Bucks, an NBA title contender, and then came roaring all the way back for the eventual overtime win. That is a confidence booster to say the least. It also means that even if the Heat get down to the Wolves in this one by a sizable margin, which not be a total surprise given this is Minnesota's home opener, one can fully expect the high-powered Heat to battle back and get right back into the game. Miami has been putting up a ton of points early this season and that makes them a dangerous dog in a spot like this. This one is all about the situational value and, even though the Wolves are 2-0, they played one very bad team and won their other game in OT by a single point. Lets not get carried away with Minnesota's 2-0 start. So another way to look at this is we have a Heat team projected to be a 45-win team this season getting a full +7 against a Minnesota team projected to be a 35-win team this season. I understand the situational edge for the home team here but this line could easily be much closer to a pick'em! Give me the big points! 10* MIAMI

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #534 Friday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Celtics ran into a buzzsaw in the form of a determined and hungry 76ers team in Philly on Wednesday. The Sixers had long been the punching bag of Boston and wanted to prove they are ready to live up to their lofty expectations this season. Now the Celtics get a much better match-up in Game 2 of their season and in what is Boston's home opener. The Raptors are coming to down. Of course Toronto's expectations are down quite far this season as Kawhi Leonard is now wearing a Clippers jersey! Also, the Raptors handed me an early candidate for "bad beat of the year" with their OT win (and inexplicable cover!) in their overtime 8 point win over the Pelicans on opening night on Tuesday. That said, I already had my eyes on this match-up ever since that game and things set up perfectly after the Celtics were throttled in Philadelphia on Wednesday. Boston was held in check thanks to stifling defense of the 76ers and now the Celtics will enjoy a lot more open court and open looks in this match-up against the Raptors. After shooting poorly from the field (including from beyond the arc) and also shooting poorly at the foul line, the Celtics will turn in a much stronger performance on their home floor on Friday evening. Look for the host to win this one in an absolute rout. 10* BOSTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #527 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Detroit Pistsons @ 7:05 ET - Give credit to the Pistons as they went on the road, sans Blake Griffin, and beat a solid Indiana team last night. However, a look inside the numbers shows why some struggles are to be expected tonight. An early season back to back is tough as teams aren't use to that yet this early in the season. Also, Detroit knocked down 46% of their 3-pointers and also 56% from inside the arc. That hot shooting is unlikely to be repeated against a hungry Hawks team that will be flying all over the floor looking to win their season opener. Also, with Griffin out, Andre Drummond is the most important player on the floor for the Pistons and he played 41 minutes last night. That is going to be tough on the big man for tonight as, no matter how well-conditioned you are, a back to back is particularly tough on a big man. Drummond was key to the win last night and his minutes could be limited tonight. Grab the fresher team as the trend we saw toward road covers in yesterday's first big card of NBA action continues in this one Thursday as the home teams are a little over-valued early in the season when a lot of these games are "anybody's game" and, given the rest edge for the Hawks here, I look for the road team to pull away late. 10* ATLANTA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #512 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The betting markets tend to put a lot of weight into historical data. That is why this line is only a -5 on Philadelphia as of early game day morning. That said, the line is far too low and I will step in and take advantage. The fact is that the 76ers have a history of recent struggles against the Celtics and that is why Boston is getting plenty of attention in this match-up. However, the fact is that the Celtics are trending the wrong direction away from NBA Championship contender while the 76ers (along with the Bucks) are now considered a frontrunner to come out of the Eastern Conference and battle for the NBA Title in June. In other words, we've got the stronger team and we've got the team that wants to exterminate a long-time nemesis and we've got them on their home floor and they're laying just 5 points. I'll take this kind of situation all day every day. In terms of additional support for this one, Boston is just 9-15 SU as a road dog of 6 points or less while Philly is 65-19 SU as a home favorite including 29-10 SU as a home favorite of 6 or less points. In other words, it is very likely that Philly gets the SU win here and having the Sixers in the -5 range is a great value. The 76ers are on an 8-3 ATS run and continue to be undervalued by the markets while the Celtics are on a 1-4 ATS run entering the new season and are overvalued here due to past successes against the Sixers. Philly is in the process of turning the tables on Boston and "the process" continues here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Tuesday 10* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Pelicans are without Zion Williamson due to his injury but lets not forget that the Raptors no longer have Kawhi Leonard. That said, I feel we have great line value here with this line as it first opened up around a 5 and is now up to a 7 as of early game day morning. New Orleans has gone 51-36 ATS in road games the past two seasons. Also, within that stat for the Pelicans is a tightener as well. New Orleans is 13-7 / 65% ATS when they are a road dog in a range of +6.5 to +12 points. As you can see with the huge total posted on this game, a lot of points are expected in this one. That is another key that trends very much AGAINST Toronto here. The Raptors, in a home game where the total is posted at 220 or more, have gone 16-28-3 ATS long-term. Look for the Pelicans to take this one to the wire north of the border Tuesday. Having Jrue Holiday back at the point is a key for the Pelicans as he missed the final 5 weeks of last season and is a tremendous player and a floor leader. Also, I like the addition of JJ Redick for a strong outside shooting threat as well. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #529 Monday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors could have Kevin Durant back on the floor tonight. All signs are pointing that way and I liked Golden State in this match-up for Game 5 even if he didn't play so truly this has just increased the value for me. That's because the line, as of early Monday morning, has only budged by about a point, even though Durant could be a key catalyst for a big comeback effort from Golden State. While it is true that the Warriors are down 3-1 in this series, it is also true that it only takes one GS win for them to be very much alive in this series. Game 6 would be at home for Golden State and, with Durant possibly back on the floor for that one too, the Warriors would be a sizable favorite for then forcing an "anything can happen" Game 7 north of the border. Like I said, you can see why all hope is certainly not lost for GS and that is especially true when you consider that these guys are repeat champions looking for another ring! In other words, they've "been there, done that" and will be very hard for the Raptors to close out. Note that the Warriors are a long-term 13-6 (SU and ATS) when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto is a long-term 7-12 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Raptors, especially if Durant is back for GS, will be feeling the pressure to close this series out at home and avoid another trip to the West Coast. Truly this has the makings of an amazing series finish as I expect the Warriors to come up with their strongest effort of the series tonight and force a Game 6 out west. 10* GOLDEN STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #528 Friday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors are in full on bounce back mode here after an embarrassing home loss in Game 3. Golden State was still without Kevin Durant of course but they also were without Klay Thompson for that game and that proved to be too much for them to overcome even though Stephen Curry scored 47 points. In Game 4 Friday, look for the Warriors to have a true "energy game" here as they are highly motivated and also will be energized by the return of Klay Thompson here. GS can not afford to fall into a 3-1 hole. Yes, a "must win" does not always equate to a "must win" but in this case, with the defending champs at home and in a great spot for a huge effort, I am happy to lay the short number in this one. Golden State is 13-5 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto is 6-12 SU and 7-11 ATS when leading in a playoff series. When the Warriors enter a game off 3 or more consecutive overs, Golden State has gone 8-2 SU and ATS this season. Look for the Warriors to really clamp down on defense here after allowing 123 points in Game 3. When playing with home loss revenge, GS has gone 9-3 SU this season and they've covered 8 of those 12 games! Keep in mind, the Raptors entered this series having gone just 1-2 SU and ATS in road games in their series victories over the 76ers and Bucks. In other words, it is easy to see why the odds favor a letdown here for Toronto after they already got their big road win and cover in Game 3 on Wednesday. Payback time for the small home favorite. 10* GOLDEN STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #523 Sunday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors are 12-5 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Golden State is 8-2 SU their last 10 games in NBA Finals and that is even after losing Game 1 of this series. Look for the Warriors, even though still without Durant, to respond big in Game 2. The earliest numbers that popped up offshore for this one had the Warriors as a slight favorite but now they are an underdog catching as many as 2.5 points as of early game day morning. Golden State is 21-7 SU when playing with revenge this season. Also, this will be the Warriors 4th straight road game but, interestingly, GS is 32-7 SU the last 39 times they have entered a game off of playing 3 or more consecutive road games. Toronto, in franchise history, is an ugly 6-11 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Raptors have covered 5 straight games but, prior to this, the longest ATS winning streak for Toronto this season was 4 straight games. You can see that the odds are certainly in favor of this streak coming to an end. It has been a great run for the Raptors but I also like the fact that Siakam shot a ridiculous 14 of 17 in Game 1. You know that numbers like that are not going to happen again here. Also, Green and Iguodala combined for 5 of 16 shooting including 0 of 6 from three point land for the Warriors. When you flip these numbers around to the normal range you will see that Golden State should respond and be on top in Game 2. That huge game for Siakam was the 4th time in May that he scored 20 or more points while also shooting at least 45% from the field. What happened after the 1st three? Siakam averaged just NINE points and shot just 33% from the field. Adjustments are made game to game and the Warriors have had plenty of time to make some key changes for their Game 2 planning. Much different result today. 10* GOLDEN STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 - This line opened up at a pick'em and has risen to a -2.5 on the Raptors. Consider that Milwaukee also entered Game 4 off a loss in Game 3 of this series. The line for Game 4 was the Bucks -3. So now we have seen this line completely swing in the opposite direction. The last time these teams played in Toronto the Bucks were favored by 3 and now they are the underdog by 3 points. Of course that is not where the odds makers set the line, that is what the markets are forcing. Long-time followers know whom I like to side with in the majority of cases like this and this one is no exception. I'll side with the odds makers and fade the markets here. We are simply getting exceptional line value here. Milwaukee has lost 3 straight games for the first time this entire season. The Bucks also have failed to cover the spread now in 3 straight games which is also rare for them this season. The last two times that has happened they got blowout wins by a double digit margin in their next game both times. I am not saying we're going to necessarily see a road rout here but I am expecting an outright win and am happy to have the points on my side as added insurance. Milwaukee shot 45% from the field in Game 5 and held Toronto to 37%. So what happened in that game that led to the loss? The Bucks allowed too many uncontested threes. The Raptors had 18 threes compared to just 10 for Milwaukee. That is a difference of 24 points. At the free throw line Toronto outscored the Bucks by 12 points. When you consider those stats combine for a 36 point advantage and yet the Raptors only won the game by 6 points you can see why I am not so impressed by Toronto like the betting masses are. Give me the points here which is where the sharp money is very likely to go in this game! The Raptors don't have a good history in this situation as they are 5-11 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Bucks are 16-4 ATS (19-1 SU) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. 10* MILWAUKEE

Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #508 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 ET - It is truly entertaining to see how quickly market perception can swing on teams. Everybody is talking about the Raptors because they won big in Game 4. Lets not forget they barely won Game 3 on their home floor and it took double OT to do it. Lets not forget that Kawhi Leonard scored just 19 points in Game 4. That said, if you think his teammates are going to contribute on the road in Game 5 in the same way they did in Game 4 on Thursday, then you haven't been watching the Raptors for much of this post-season. This Toronto team relies heavily on Leonard and the fact he seemed to be favoring his leg at the end of the Game 3 marathon in which he played 52 minutes and then was held under 20 points in Game 4 should be a warning to Raptors supporters. I don't foresee Kyle Lowry having another huge game here. Keep in mind he had averaged just 13 points in the two prior games before scoring 25 on Tuesday. Also, he had averaged only about 12 points in the first two rounds of the post-season. Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka combined to shoot 12 of 18 off the bench at Toronto in Game 4. Again, very unlikely to see this again in Game 5 on the road. Milwaukee is going to be very aggressive Thursday and will have the support of the home crowd all the way through. Keep in mind the Bucks were very close to going up 3-0 in this series and yet now that it is 2-2 and the Raptors support players played so well in Game 4, everyone is talking about Toronto. You know what usually happens when the masses start to line up on one side don't you? The Bucks are the play here and should dominate this one. Milwaukee is 4-0 their last 4 home games and won those by an average margin of 19 points per game. The Bucks also went 2-0 at home in the first round of the post-season and the average margin was 28 points per victory. Milwaukee is off back to back losses for only the 2nd time this season. The one time it happened during the regular season they won their next two games, both at home, by an average margin of 18 points per game as both were blowout wins. Of course, one game at a time here for the Bucks but they haven't lost 3 straight games this entire season and certainly I expect this win to come by 7 or more points. Good line value with this line dropping to 6.5 in many of the big sports books as of early game day morning. The Raptors are 4-11 ATS when they enter a game off 3 or more consecutive overs. The Bucks are 16-3 ATS (19-0 SU) off an upset loss as a favorite and also 6-0 SU and ATS this season when off a loss by a double digit margin. Payback time. 10* MILWAUKEE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - With Damian Lillard reportedly dealing with a significant rib injury and the Trail Blazers down 3-0 in this series the handwriting appears to be on the wall for Portland. However, even with Lillard struggling the Blazers were up huge in Game 3 before the Warriors roared back for the win. Of course in Game 2 (admittedly when Lillard was healthier) Portland also had a great shot at the win but it slipped away late in the 3-point loss. The fact is that, ever since Game 1 when the Trail Blazers appeared fatigued from their series with the Nuggets that went the full seven games, Portland has been ultra competitive with Golden State. I just don't see them getting swept out of the playoffs by losing this one on their home floor. The Blazers have showed me enough (even with Lillard hurting) that I fully expect them to win this game tonight. I will grab the points being offered (as many as 4 available in some spots) but will look for the outright win. Note that Golden State has failed to cover 24 of 38 times this season when they are off a win that came by a victory margin of 10 or more points. The Trail Blazers, prior to Saturday's loss, had been a PERFECT 3-0 ATS in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. They let that Game 3 slip away just like they let Game 2 slip away on the road. Look for the Blazers to prove to be the hungrier and more determined team tonight. It is often when a team is left for dead by the masses that they rise up and play their best game (especially when at home) and that is what I fully expect here. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #548 Saturday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The home team has won 3 straight in match-ups between these teams. The Trail Blazers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings in Portland. Many will be happy to grab the Warriors plus the points in the rare role of an underdog for them but, in typical contrarian fashion I am going against Golden State here. The Blazers actually had a 15 point lead at halftime of Game 2. Portland trailed by only 6 points heading to the 4th quarter in Game 1. The point is that the Trail Blazers saw each game slip away from them in the 4th quarter as, even after a horrific 3rd quarter in Game 2, they were still tied going to the 4th and had a late lead before falling just short. These things are understandable on the road. But, at home, I don't expect Portland to collapse late as they have done in each of the first two games. The fact that the Warriors are finding out that Kevin Durant's injury is a little worse than originally thought is also unlikely to help the psyche of Golden State heading into this one. As for the Trail Blazers, they will have a high motor in this game as they are back home and ready to get right back into this series after letting each of the first two games slip away late. The Game 2 loss was particularly disheartening for the Blazers but heading back home after that 3-point defeat will have Portland firing on all cylinders in this one. The Trail Blazers are 23-3 SU in their last 26 home games. The Warriors are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 road games. 10* PORTLAND

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The Blazers shot 36% in Game 1 while the Warriors shot 50%. Portland turned the ball over 21 times compared to Golden State giving it up just 14 times. Even with that, the Trail Blazers were down by just a single digit margin with under 5 minutes to go before the wheels completely came off in the eventual loss by 22 points. The fact is we're getting great line value to again be offered the same line in Game 2 with Kevin Durant again out for Golden State and with the Blazers very likely to play much better in this one. This season, when Portland is on the road and coming off a game in which they were held to less than 100 points, the Trail Blazers are a perfect 4-0 ATS! This season, the Warriors are 3-6 ATS when they are off a game where they allowed less than 98 points. The fact is that game one was an unusual result and you can see what recent history suggests happens after a game like that and I see Portland coming up huge in game two. Damian Lillard's hamstring issue is minor and the Blazers have not failed to cover back to back meetings with the Warriors since their playoffs series two years ago! In meetings between these teams since April 24, 2017 the Trail Blazers were 5-2 ATS before failing to cover Game 1 of this series. Look for the bounce back here and at least the cover as an outright upset would not surprise me here! Look for the Warriors to drop to 3-6 ATS in this post-season when leading in a playoff series and keep in mind Golden State is only 4-4 SU in these playoffs when they hold the lead in a series. 10* PORTLAND

Playoff Hot Side - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Tuesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Without Kevin Durant, the Warriors are impacted more than just on the offensive end. Golden State allowed 47% to the Rockets in Game 6 without Durant on the floor. Note that the Blazers come into this match-up having allowed only 41.5% from the field in their last 6 games against the Nuggets. 3 of those 6 games were played on Denver's homes floor where they are so tough. The fact is that there are still many doubters about Portland but this team is for real. The Trail Blazers saw CJ McCollum take over in Game 6 at Denver when Damon Lilliard was having a rare sub-par game. That gives Portland a strong enough backcourt to compete with the Warriors. The fact that Rodney Hood is doubtful for this game does hurt the Blazers depth in their frontcourt (already without Jusuf Nurkic of course) but keep in mind the Warriors are not only without KD but also DeMarcus Cousins. Portland has won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and that includes the most recent meeting at Golden State. The Blazers are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games and I like having them plus big points as they will be going hard in Game 1 to steal a game at Golden State while Durant is out. The Warriors got the outright upset at Houston in Game 6 but were 4-9 ATS in their 13 prior games. Golden State is also 2-5 ATS when off an outright upset win as an underdog. Also, the Warriors are 11-24 ATS their last 35 Tuesday games. I find it hard to believe that the Warriors are justified in being a 7.5 point favorite here over the Blazers when this very same lineup was a 7.5 point dog at Houston! Even factoring in home court of 3 points each way that is still saying that the Rockets are 9 points better than the Blazers! I don't believe that for a second. Yes the Warriors have a rest edge here but Portland did have two days off before facing Denver on Sunday and they are riding a positive wave of emotion right now. I look for the Blazers to be in this one all the way. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7 ET - When the 76ers come to play and are aggressive, they have proven they can beat the Raptors and this is true even in Toronto as they won Game 2 here. After taking a 2-1 lead in the series, the Sixers dealt with an ailing Joel Embiid and some passive play and dropped two straight games. Facing elimination in Game 6 they didn't just "hang on for dear life" to even the series up at 3, Philadelphia absolutely dominated the Raptors. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate. Once again the Sixers are afforded two days of rest heading into this game and that is a huge edge for them considering Embiid, more than any other player for either team in this series, benefits from the extra rest. He had a +/- of +40 in Game 6 despite scoring only 17 points. The point is that shows you how much he contributes on both ends of the floor. He had a couple of big blocks of Kawhi Leonard that later had Leonard dishing the ball instead of driving to the hoop. The big fella is going to continue to dominate inside in Game 7 and we also saw a lot more attacking of the rim from Ben Simmons and, of course, Jimmy "Buckets" had a huge game as he continues to show leadership qualities that most were not expecting from Butler. This 76ers team has more star power than the Raptors and the Sixers are coming together as a team at the perfect time. They carry momentum right from Game 6 into Game 7 and note that in the last 5 games Philly has only been blown out once. The Sixers have won 3 of the 5 and only 1 loss came by more than 5 points. I fully expect the outright upset here but am grabbing the points. If the Sixers fall short it will likely be a heartbreaking loss by only a bucket or two. There is no way the 76ers are coming out soft or flat in this game. As a result, they are in this one all the way and have a great shot at the outright upset as the Raptors heavy reliance on Leonard burns them in the end. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #525 Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 3:30 ET - These teams are evenly matched which is why this series has gone 7 games. Of course if the Trail Blazers had Jusuf Nurkic on the floor the series would have already been over with Portland prevailing. However, even without Nurkic the Blazers have won 3 of the last 5 games including a game at Denver and I am backing Portland here on the road. I expect the outright upset but I am happy to grab the generous points. The Trail Blazers are 21-10 SU (and 20-11 ATS) when off a win by a double digit margin. The Nuggets are 3-5 ATS the last 8 times they were off a game where they allowed 113 points or more. Also, Denver is known for a strong home court edge but is actually only 7-10 ATS in their last 17 home games and that is a long-term run that dates back to late February! The Nuggets have been held to 39.8% or less from the field in 3 of their last 7 games and two of those were on their home floor. Also, Denver has shot only 27.5% from three point land in their last 4 home games in this post-season. In the last 5 games between the Blazers and Nuggets only 1 of the 5 was a Denver win by more than 4 points. I look for that trend to continue here as the Trail Blazers are in this one all the way and either win the game outright or lose by 5 or less points. Great underdog value here. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #520 Friday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - There have been 8 meetings in calendar year 2019. Three in the regular season and now 5 in this playoff series. The result? ALL 8 were decided by 6 points or less. That said, this line being at 7 or 7.5 in favor of the Rockets must be a colossal mistake, right? In typical contrarian fashion I will lay the big points here. Kevin Durant is out for this game and I smell a blowout. Why? Because that means more reliance on other key big scorers like Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry to step up. Of course the key to the style that Thompson and Curry play is knock down threes and that simply has not been happening at a normally productive clip for much of this series. It seems Curry's finger might indeed be an issue in his shooting touch. The two teams have combined to make just 31% of their threes in the last two games in this series. The fact this game is at Houston also lessens the likelihood of a strong shooting night for the Warriors. At the same time, the Rockets could absolutely go on huge runs in this game because the absence of Durant is certainly impacting to Golden State on both ends of the floor. The Warriors have averaged just 32.8% from three point land in their last 4 games at Houston and only 105 points per game. Certainly those are not typical Golden State numbers. As for the Rockets, they've averaged 112 points per game the last 4 times they've hosted the Warriors and that number should grow here with the Warriors sans Durant! Also note that Golden State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Rockets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Lay it and look for a double digit home blowout here. 10* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Thursday NBA 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - In the minds of most, this series is over. That is why a line that first opened up around a pick'em is now as high as -2.5 on Raptors. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the "left for dead" 76'ers here. They are on their home floor. They just lost back to back games and were held below 100 points in each contest. If you don't think the Sixers are going to give one helluva effort in this game than you don't know much about the emotion and pride of professional players especially when those players are on their home floor. So what happens when Philly, unlike Game 5, gives a strong effort? The Sixers held the Raptors below 100 points in both Games 2 and 3 of this series. The 76ers won that Game 3 right here in Philly by a margin of 21 points. Remember they were heavily doubted after losing Game 1 of the series versus Brooklyn. The Sixers responded by winning 4 straight games. They were again doubted after losing Game 1 of this series at Toronto. They responded by winning back to back games including their lone home win in this series coming in dominating fashion. Joel Embiid's health (upper respiratory infection) was at his worst in Game 5. He'll be a different player in Game 6. The 76'ers are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they've entered a game off 2 or more consecutive non-covers. Philly is 9-1 ATS this season when off a game in which they failed to score 100 points. You read that right, they were a PERFECT 9-0 ATS off a game in which they were held under the century mark PRIOR to that loss in Toronto on Tuesday. I don't see lightning striking twice. The Sixers improve to 10-1 ATS in that situation with a resounding win tonight that will feature intensity, emotion, and a crazy atmosphere in Philly. Give me the home dog! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday NBA 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - This line opened up at a 5.5 and has moved to as high as a 6.5 as of early morning on game day. I am grabbing the points here. While it is true that the home team has won all 4 games, it is also true that the Rockets have momentum on their side after winning each of the past two games. The Warriors had a chance to go in for the kill and certainly would have been in great position to now finish Houston off in this game if they had just taken one of the two in Texas. However, after losing both of those games Golden State now faces a Rockets team that has renewed confidence and hope in this series. That is the combination that makes for a dangerous dog and I especially like dogs in spots like this when they're offered at a line of a half dozen points or more. Note that Houston is 6-2 ATS this season when they enter a game on exactly a 2-game ATS winning streak. In terms of the Rockets entering a game on an ATS winning streak of 2 or more games, they are 13-6 ATS the last 19 times they've been in that situation this season. The point is that when Houston gets on a roll for their backers it has paid to jump on board and I expect the Rockets to stay hot here. Keep in mind, these teams have now played 7 games in calendar year 2019 and ALL SEVEN have had a margin of victory of 6 points or less! The Warriors enter this game on a 4-8 ATS run and are simply not as dominant as they've been in past post-seasons. Look for another very close game that could go either way. I feel this one could be the upset many have been waiting for in this series but I am grabbing the valuable points as added insurance! 10* HOUSTON

East Beast - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Wednesday 8* Boston Celtics (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - Now that the betting markets have soured on the Celtics the Bucks rose to as high as a 9.5 point favorite here after opening as low as an 8 point choice. I look for Boston to respond here and, though Milwaukee is the better team in this series, I don't see this game being decided by double digits. The Celtics are 10-3 SU and ATS (including 5-2 SU and ATS this season) when they enter a game off 3 or more consecutive losses. The Bucks are a long-term 67-114 ATS when entering a game off 3 or more consecutive wins and that includes a 19-27 ATS mark since the beginning of the 2016/17 season. This one might be about playing for pride for the Celtics but, as a result, that is precisely what I feel you will see here and there will be no quit in this team in Game 5. Grab the big points. 8* BOSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Tuesday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are still not getting any respect from the betting markets. Certainly give credit to the Raptors for winning Game 4 at Philly but also note that Joel Embiid was sick and had a tough time in that game. Even with that (and despite the fact Kawhi Leonard scored 39 points, the Sixers still almost won that game. Keep in mind the rest of the Raptors combined for only 62 points on ugly 22 of 56 shooting from the field (including just 5 of 24 from three point land). News flash everyone: Toronto is not as good as everyone thinks they are. They rely so heavily on Kawhi as you have seen! Note that Leonard is averaging 38 points per game in this series and yet it is still tied 2-2. You can bet (literally) that Philadelphia is going to do a much better job on Leonard in Game 5. Also note that the 76ers have outrebounded their opponent in 12 straight games! Not surprisingly the Sixers are 8-4 SU and ATS during this stretch but they continue to get no respect from the betting markets. I feel strongly that Philly has a great shot at winning this game outright. I am grabbing the generous points being offered but truly Embiid is due for a monster game and everyone seems to underestimate other Sixers players like Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, JJ Redick. These guys will all be in "attack mode" in Game 5 after losing on their home floor in Game 4. Note that Philly is 39-20 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. The Raptors are 3-9 ATS in their last dozen second round playoff games. Give me the hungry road dog playing with a chip on their shoulders in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - April 28 of last year is a day the Bucks haven't forgotten. It was the day their season ended as Boston finished them off in Game 7 of their first round playoff series. Even though today's game isn't an elimination game it is a chance, in a sense, for Milwaukee to return the favor so to speak. Now up 2-1 in this series, the Bucks can go in for the kill here because a 3-1 series lead with Game 5 in Milwaukee (and Game 7 if necessary) is likely too much for the Celtics to overcome. The Bucks will not let up here, not after they were beaten by double digits in that Game 7 loss here last spring. The home team took all 7 meetings in that series but that was then and this is now. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams have seen the road team get the cash. Also, Milwaukee has now won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. They are the better team this season and their 27-14 regular season road mark was tied with the defending champion Warriors for the top road record in the league. The Game 1 loss in this series for the Bucks seemed to be the wake-up call they needed. They have responded since then and that is their only loss of the post-season. Also, their 6 wins have come by an average margin of 20.5 points per victory! There is nothing "average" about those numbers! Milwaukee has dominated. As for the Celtics, their 4 wins in their sweep of the Pacers came by an average margin of 7.5 points and truly Indiana was in every single one of those games with a chance to win every single game! Boston is 12-22 ATS after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Bucks are 19-6 ATS this season after allowing 115 points or more and also 13-6 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games while the Celtics are 6-9 ATS with the same rest factor. Once again, Boston will not be able to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo in this one and he keys another road win. 10* MILWAUKEE

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #593 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:05 ET - 9 straight games, including the quadruple OT game Friday, between the Nuggets and Blazers have been decided by single digits. That said, I certainly feel there is value with having the points in this match-up even though the points being offered are rather small. The fact is that having the points means that, in essence, you covered Friday's game 5 times as you covered at the end of regulation and at the end of each of the 3 OT periods before it finally went final after the 4th OT. The key point being that there is just not a lot that separates these two teams and that is also why the road team has now covered 5 of the last 7 meetings. I do feel that the Jusuf Nurkic injury will continue to catch up with the Trail Blazers the further they go into this post-season. Denver has now won the rebounding battle in back-to-back games and truly the Nuggets did themselves in with turnovers in Game 3. I fully expect a bounce back here as Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS the last 5 times they've had 13 or more turnovers in a game. The Nuggets also are 7-1 ATS in second round playoff games. Portland is 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've forced 14 or more turnovers in a game. The Blazers won the turnover battle by 7 in Game 3 and certainly that was a key factor in the 3 point win. Portland is 5-11 ATS in playoff games including 2-4 in their last 6. I fully expect the Nuggets to get the outright win here and even this series up but I am grabbing the points as added insurance. Having the points on our side is also what elevates this one to top play rating. 10* DENVER

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #592 Sunday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 3:35 ET - As per usual, compared to the regular season, the playoff schedule is much better for players to get rest. That is such a key edge for the 76ers because of big man Joel Embiid being afforded extra rest for his knees. After the Sixes got embarrassed in Game 1 they dominated Game 2 at Toronto. Then, after two days off, Philadelphia dominated Game 3 at home. Now, after two days off, what do you think happens again in Game 4 with Philly at home? Yes, the Sixers should dominate. Embiid is rested for the 76ers and also their bench depth is better as there are healthier than they've been in some time. Also, the Raptors Pascal Siakam is dealing win an injury. Though he his listed as doubtful I would not be surprised to see Siakam end up playing but his effectiveness will be impacted by his lower leg injury. The Sixers are extremely confident right now, playing great defense, and getting solid overall play from key contributors. Factoring in a healthier bench too and they have the depth and star power to outdo a Raptors team that relies far too much on star player Kawhi Leonard. Toronto will be hungry to bounce back here but they are quickly finding out that this is a very tough match-up for them. Also, the Raptors are 6-14 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in playoff games in this post-season and are 34-11 SU in home games this season. Considering the very low number on this game, the Sixers offer great line value at home as any SU win also is likely to equate to an ATS win. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #590 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - Down 0-2 in the series, and with extra time to think about it due to the 3 days off between games, the Rockets will have a fire lit under them for this game. Houston allowed 115 points in Tuesday's loss. Prior to that the Rockets had allowed an average of just 99 points per game in their 6 prior games. As for the Warriors, they had allowed an average of 113 points per game and gone 4-7 ATS in their 11 games prior to the win and cover in Game 2 of this series. Golden State is 5-9 ATS in Saturday games this season. Also, the Warriors are 7-11 SU the last 18 times they've been an underdog. That said, should a SU loss for Golden State equate to an ATS win for the Rockets? Yes. Each of the Warriors last 3 losses have come by 4 or more points and the average margin of defeat was 9 points. As for Houston, 9 of their last 10 wins have come by 7 or more points and 8 of those 9 victories came by a double digit margin! The Rockets had a non-covering win (but by 7 points!) in their most recent home game and that ended an ATS run of 8-0 in their last 8 home games! Look for another big home win here as the Rockets are 15-1 SU in their last 16 home games and the lone loss in that stretch was to the Warriors. In other words it is payback time and revenge time here as the Rockets get right back into the series Saturday. 10* HOUSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #585 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The general betting strategy employed by most will lead them to back the Celtics here since they are back at home and off an ugly Game 2 loss. As long-time followers know, I am generally contrarian to public perception. That said, it comes as no surprise that I love the Bucks in this spot. Milwaukee made adjustments after Game 1 and simply took over and imposed their will in Game 2. The Bucks are the better team this season. While I certainly expect the well-coach Celtics to now counter with some adjustments of their own here at home in Game 3, the fact is that Milwaukee is the more talented team in this match-up. The concern for the Celtics is that Giannis Antetokounmpo made only 7 field goals in Game 2 and Boston still lost the game by more than 20 points! The Bucks start did have 29 points in the game but the fact his teammates poured in 94 points is a good sign of things to come in this series for Milwaukee. I know the Pacers team the Celtics team faced in round one was tougher than the Pistons team the Bucks faced in round one. However, I still can't get over the fact that Milwaukee absolutely crushed Detroit throughout that series and it was never in doubt while Boston actually could have lost each of their 4 games with Indiana. Yes the Celtics games with the Pacers were "that close" even though it ended up being a sweep. The Bucks went 7-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Boston is 10-15 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. No bounce back here for the Celtics. 10* MILWAUKEE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #582 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers simply continue to get no respect from the betting markets. After losing to the Nets in Game 1 of their first round series with Brooklyn many were saying the Sixers wouldn't even survive Round One. Of course Philly proceeded to win 4 straight over the Nets. Now, of course, the Raptors are a much better team than the Nets and I am NOT saying the same thing here (that Philly will win 4 straight). But here is what I am saying, Game 3 is a fantastic situation for the Sixers. After getting embarrassed in Game 1 of this series they responded with a huge Game 2 effort and got a key road win at Toronto. Now everyone expects the Raptors to bounce right back and win Game 3 as Philly opened up as a 1.5 point favorite but now is a 1.5 point dog. Lets not forget that one of the biggest concerns for the Sixers is the health of Joel Embiid. That said, the extra rest that has been afforded between Games 2 and 3 of this series is a huge edge for Philadelphia. Additionally, the home crowd will be amped up for what is just the 2nd home game for the 76ers since mid-April. This will be an incredible atmosphere in Philly and they won their last two home games by 22 points apiece. The Raptors get a lot of hype and love due to their finish to the regular season but this still a Toronto team that is only 12-9 SU (and 9-12 ATS) in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record and they have a first year head coach. The Sixers are 16-11 SU against teams with winning record and 33-11 SU in home games this season. Everyone continues to doubt this 76ers team and we'll take advantage with the great line value considering this favorable situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #577 Wednesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 9:05 ET - It looks easy to simply take the Nuggets on their home floor, right? Of course this was particularly true when the line opened up at a 3.5 in some of the big books offshore. Not surprisingly, the line is now up to as high as a 4.5 as of game day morning and I am fading the masses and grabbing the road dog here. The Trail Blazers are off back to back non-covers. Note that Portland is a PERFECT 8-0 SU the last 8 times they've entered a game on an ATS losing streak of 2 or more games. Though I do expect the outright upset here I am grabbing the points with the Blazers for added insurance in this one but, the point is, a SU win is likely in this one so having a handful of points too is simply an added bonus for us. The Nuggets were on a 5-9 ATS run in home games before notching the win and cover in Game 1 of this series. I look for Denver to drop to 11-19 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Trail Blazers will turn up the heat on defense after allowing 121 at Denver Monday. Note that, prior to that game the road team had covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams. Keep in mind, since the All-Star break two and a half months ago, the Blazers have lost back to back games only ONCE! Look for a huge bounce back from the road team to even this series up but grab those points for the added insurance. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #572 Tuesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - I had the 76ers last night after they got thoroughly embarrassed at Toronto in Game 1. The result? A never in doubt cover even though many pundits left the Sixers for dead after the Raptors destroyed them in Game 1. The same principle applies to this match-up. As a result of the Celtics winning big at Milwaukee in Game 1, there is already a strong anti-Bucks pro-Celtics attitude among the so-called experts. As always, over-reacting to one game is a common theme in today's "what have you done for me lately" world. I am going contrarian here and grabbing a Bucks team others won't want to lay the points with and, certainly, it is not without plenty of logic and reason. First off the Celtics made 34 of 56 two point FG attempts in Game 1 while Milwaukee made only 18 of 50 two point FG attempts. Give plenty of credit to Boston for that but do you really think the Bucks aren't going to make adjustments for Game 2? They are on their home floor and will be fired up and ready to respond on BOTH ends of the floor after being embarrassed in front of their own fans in Game 1. Keep in mind that is a 32 point difference on two pointers. If Bucks just play "even" with Boston from inside the arc they win Game 1 by 10 points and I feel they can do even better than "even" with the Celtics in Game 2. After all, Milwaukee is 21-1 SU (including 11-0 SU at home) when coming off a loss this season. Okay, but what about the cover? Milwaukee, if you like them to get the SU win here, should also be whom you back for the cover because 83% of their wins this season came by 8 or more points. In fact, 16 of their 17 wins since March 1st have come by a margin of 8 or more points. As for the Celtics, 8 of their last 11 losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points. The Bucks roll big at home in this one. 10* MILWAUKEE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Even more so today than in the past, likely to due to social media influence and the overall vast amount of media coverage on games and match-ups, public opinion is swayed extremely fast. The Sixers are now "left for dead" in this series because they lost Game 1. That is simply preposterous. Let me explain what happened in Game 1. The Sixers shot less than 40% from the field while the Raptors shot better than 50%. Games like this happen from time to time for all teams and Philadelphia is no exception. Yes, I am aware of their poor recent history at Toronto but think of all the bad teams the 76ers have had in recent seasons that helped build that 0-14 SU run in games played north of the border. Philadelphia, of course, is a much better team this season and the fact is that the Sixers had 13 offensive rebounds in Game 1 compared to the Raptors having just 2 and that helped lead to a 14-2 edge in 2nd chance points. Overall for the game the 76ers took 10 more shots from the field. They weren't soft, they just didn't shoot well. The fact is Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam had huge games for the Raptors in Game 1 but you can bet the 76ers will make some adjustments. The remainder of Toronto's team combined to score just 34 points in Game 1 on 13 of 41 shooting. Remember what happened when Philly lost Game 1 to the Nets in the first round and everyone was bashing the 76ers? They responded and won 4 straight games to quiet the critics. Of course I am not saying that is happening here in this series but I am saying that getting a revenge-minded Philly team +6.5 points again in Game 2 is a great value. Keep in mind this is still the first season for the Raptors Nick Nurse as a head coach at the NBA level. Don't be surprised when the Sixers win the "adjustment game" here in Game 2. The fact is you know that Leonard and Siakam are highly unlikely to combine for 74 points again just like the 76ers Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Jimmy Butler are extremely unlikely to go 15 for 47 combined from the field again! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - The Warriors Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both are dealing with ankle injuries entering this game. Thompson's appears to be the bigger concern but, either way, it is definitely an issue. Many are going to look at the low spread on this game and jump on the home team but the contrarian viewpoint should prove to be the right viewpoint here. The fact is that the Rockets are only getting about a half-dozen points here with good reason. Not only the fact that Curry and Thompson may not be 100% but also the fact that Golden State is off a bit of a grueling series with the Clippers. That series with LA took more effort from the Warriors than many expected and, while Golden State is on short rest here, the Rockets have a solid rest edge after dispatching of the Jazz in 5 games. The Warriors are a long-term 11-24 ATS in Sunday games including a poor 2-9 ATS this season. Golden State is also 14-24 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The Rockets enter this game on a 9-3 ATS run. Also, Kevin Durant just had a huge series against the Clippers but he never scored more than 29 in the 3 games versus Houston this season. He won't be able to carry the Warriors against a high-quality Rockets team like he did against the 8th seeded Clippers. If the Rockets are going to steal a road game in this series this looks like a great spot given the rest edge. I am grabbing the points as added insurance but I truly do expect an outright upset. 10* HOUSTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #552 Sunday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 1:05 ET - Both teams are off first round sweeps. However, while the Bucks absolutely destroyed the Pistons in each and every game, the Celtics barely beat the Pacers in each and every game. The fact is Indiana had a chance to win every single game against Boston but played some of the worst situational basketball I have ever witnessed. The point is that the Celtics won't be so lucky as to receive a gift-wrapped win here from the Bucks like they seemed to receive in nearly every single game with the Pacers in that first round series. This Milwaukee team had the best record in the NBA regular season and, barring a major injury, is built to go all the way this year. That said, I am happy to lay a reasonable number here with the Bucks on their home floor. Milwaukee, if you like them to get the SU win here, should also be whom you back for the cover because 83% of their wins this season came by 8 or more points. In fact, 16 of their 17 wins since March 1st have come by a margin of 8 or more points. As for the Celtics, 8 of their last 11 losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points. Boston is very well-coached and may be able to make some adjustments after Game 1 but I see the Celtics getting blasted here as the Bucks are full of emotion and momentum right now after their first round sweep and are ready to roll on their home floor in this one! 8* MILWAUKEE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 10:05 ET - The Spurs shot a very high percentage in their Game 6 win and that included both from inside and outside the arc. San Antonio will not repeat that on the road. First off the Spurs have lost 6 of their last 7 road trips to Denver. Secondly, the Nuggets are fired up after letting the elimination opportunity slip away in the 2nd half of that game at San Antonio. Denver, when playing on their home floor off a SU road loss is a perfect 9-0 SU the last 9 times! You can easily see why it is logical for the Nuggets to get this home win. However, what about the cover? Note that each of the last 5 games in this series have been decided by 9 or more points. Also, 6 of the Nuggets last 7 wins have come by a margin of 9 or more points. Each of the Spurs last 6 losses have come by 7 or more points. San Antonio shot a ridiculous 57% from the field in Game 6. The last 7 times the Spurs are off a game where they shot 48% or better from the field, they've gone 1-6 ATS in their next game. You can see whey the odds strongly favor a solid home win for the Nuggets in this win. 10* DENVER

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - Too little respect being given to the Sixers here. Yes they went just 1-3 in the regular season series between these teams but this is a different team with all hands on deck and playing the way they're playing right now. Philadelphia didn't have Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris all season long as those guys were acquired during the season. Additionally, Joel Embiid will be playing here for sure and he joins Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick to give the Sixers a very impressive starting five. Additionally, Boban Marjanovic was also acquired during the season and gives Philly a big man off the bench. The 76ers got their wake-up call in Game 1 against the Nets and then won 4 straight games. Speaking of Game 1 significance, the Raptors are 2-14 SU all-time in Game Ones of a playoff series. Considering that poor record as well, I'll gladly grab the Sixers plus the significant points as this line opened up at a 5.5 and is now a 6.5 as of early game day morning. Give me the undervalued underdog here. 8* PHILADELPHIA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #534 Friday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 10:05 ET - With their upset loss at home on Wednesday, the Warriors are now just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. Golden State continues to be over-valued and now they are laying double digits on the road in a game where the Clippers absolutely will not quit. Once again it is "win or go home" for Los Angeles and I look for another huge effort here just like we saw in Game 5. The Clippers are 13-7 ATS when trailing in a playoff series and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. In Friday games this season LA is 10-4 ATS (including 12-2 SU). Though I don't another outright upset tonight I am fully expecting that the Clippers stay within single digits in this one. Keep in mind, after the Clips got blown out in Game 1 of this series, 3 of the last 4 games have been decided by single digits. This one will be too. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs are not the team they use to be and that fact continues to show in the post-season results. San Antonio has lost 11 of its last 14 playoff games, got eliminated from the playoffs in the first round last season, and is about to suffer that same fate this season. Yes, the Spurs have home court on their side in this Game 6 but I love the fact that is allowing us to get the Nuggets +3 in this one. Denver has not only won the last two games (including Game 4 in SA), they've dominated as they've won each of the last two games by double digits. Keep in mind, the Spurs have not held the Nuggets below 108 points in ANY of the last 4 games. Conversely, San Antonio has been held to 105 points or less in 4 of the 5 games. It is easy to see which team is executing better and I look for Denver to close this out tonight but am happy to grab the 3 points as added "insurance" in this one. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS this season when off a game in which they held their opponent to 90 points or loss. The Spurs are 11-17 ATS when they enter a game having allowed 105 points or more in 3 straight games. Simply put, San Antonio hasn't been able to get stops when they need them throughout the majority of this series. That problem continues to ail them tonight. 10* DENVER

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz played much better defense at home than they did in the first two games of this series at Houston. Look for Utah to carry over that strong play to this game. Keep in mind, the Jazz lost Game 3 by only 3 points and then won Game 4 by double digits. Their confidence is growing with each game and the Rockets are now going to be in a fierce war to try and put this team away. The Jazz are 14-6 SU their last 20 games and 4 of the 6 losses have come by 6 points or less. That means if you had Utah +7 or more in their last 20 games you would have cashed 90% of your bets! The point being that, despite how the first two games of this series played out, the Jazz are not an easy team to blowout. With the strong defense expected to continue here, I look for Utah to hang tough with the Rockets throughout Game 5. The Jazz are getting more points tonight (8 or 8.5) than they did in the first two games of this series (6.5) and this is even though they are playing their best basketball of the series right now. I am grabbing the added value and expecting an absolute war tonight that ends up being decided by just a single possession or two at the most when the final horn sounds. 10* UTAH

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - This is an early start time (12:35 PM PT) and the Warriors haven't been at their best in these types of games this season. In fact, Golden State is 2-8 ATS in Sunday games this season while the Clippers have gone 10-5 ATS in Sunday games this season. After LA got thoroughly embarrassed on their home floor in Thursday's action, they've now had two full off days to think about it and build up their intensity for Game 4. I look for a huge effort from the Clippers as the Warriors are unlikely to shoot better than 70% in the first quarter like they did in the big Game 3 win. Going further back, Golden State is 11-23 ATS in their last 34 Sunday games so this hasn't been just a one-season trend for them. Perhaps too many weekend distractions for the best team in the NBA is the culprit but whatever the theory it is not a trend I will ignore. I also love the fact this line is climbing up close to a full 10 points because I know the Clippers aren't going to lay down here. They're going to be going hard for the full 48 and if they fall short I expect it to be just single digits! 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #566 Sunday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 1:05 ET - The Pacers are looking to avoid the sweep and certainly don't want to get knocked out of the playoffs on their home floor via a sweep. Even with winning their last two road games, the Celtics are still only 8-7 SU in road games since the All-Star break. Indiana is 26-10 SU in their last 36 home games. In other words, a bounce back is likely here for the Pacers  Entering a game off exactly 3 straight non-covers, that is a situation that has happened 6 times this season and, in 4 of those 6 occurrences, the Pacers covered the 4th game. Look for that trend to continue here and I expect the outright upset but am happy to take the added point spread value here as a line that opened up around a pick'em now has Indiana catching 3 points on their home floor! The Pacers are 9-3 SU and ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. 8* INDIANA 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #552 Friday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Magic have had two full days of rest to ponder getting blasted at Toronto in Game 2 of this series. Orlando, previous to the ugly loss Tuesday, had won 12 of its last 14 games prior to the Game 2 loss. Also, the Magic are certainly happy to be back at home where, since January 31st, they have won 13 of their last 14 games including 9 straight. Yes they played some weaker foes in that stretch but the victories included wins over 4 playoff teams including the 76ers and Warriors. At the very least the Magic have earned some confidence based on their home performance the past 2 and 1/2 months! Orlando also is 15-5 ATS this season versus Atlantic Division foes. The Raptors are still just 7-10 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and also 5-11 ATS in Friday games this season. Even including Tuesday's blowout win, this is a Toronto team that is just 9-13 SU and ATS in playoff games. The line opened up at a 4 on this one but has moved to a 5 as the Raptors have the attention of the market. That means even more value with a Magic team that is going to be very tough to put away on their home floor and has a great shot at the upset! They will respond after Tuesday's ugly loss. 10* ORLANDO

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers destroyed the Nets in the second half of Game 2. That has set the tone for the rest of this series. Brooklyn embarrassed Philly on their home court in Game 1. Now the Sixers will be looking to return the favor as the series shifts north. The extra rest helps Philadelphia as Joel Embiid continues to battle with knee issues. Considering he only logged 21 minutes in Game 2 and that game took place on Monday, he is likely to be very strong for Game 3 on Thursday. Also, his back-up Boban Marjanovic had a very solid Game 2 and that is a good sign for the 76ers. Note that Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in first round playoff games and this line is only a 2.5 so any SU win likely to lead to a point spread cover as well. Brooklyn, of course, would love to bounce back here but the Nets are 2-6 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 22 of the Nets last 23 losses have come by 3 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Wednesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers scored 8 points in the 3rd quarter Sunday and still almost covered the spread. Indiana made a TOTAL of 8 field goals in the 2nd half Sunday and still almost covered the spread. You get my point. That was UGLY basketball and yet Boston still barely covered the spread. That line, just like this one, was right around a 7.5 and the Celtics prevailed by 10 despite scoring only 84 points. Note that Indiana's lowest scoring game this season had been 89 points. In other words, had the Pacers simply not scored any less than their worst game so far this season they would have won the game outright by 5 points. Give the Celtics defense some credit for sure but also consider it an aberration for the Pacers offense, a one-off if you will. In other words, look for a huge bounce back tonight. Indiana is angry, embarrassed, and they will be on the attack tonight and score much, much better. The Pacers are a long-term 22-11 ATS (including 7-3 ATS this season) when playing with revenge for a road loss by a double digit margin. Indiana is also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 April games and 29-16 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Boston is 21-32 ATS (including 7-12 ATS this season) as a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Overall, the Celtics had failed to cover 8 STRAIGHT home games prior to their miracle comeback and cover from a double digit half-time deficit in Game One. It is payback time for the Pacers and, even if they fall short of the outright upset, they'll stay inside this number. 10* INDIANA

Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The zig zag theory is one that often applies come playoff time in the NBA and that is the theory I am using to our advantage here. The fact is the markets often react greatly to the prior game in a series and when the markets zig I often like to zag and go the other way when the situation is right because we're getting extra value. That is precisely the situation here. Yes the Raptors are in bounce back mode and I do expect them to find a way to get the SU win here but I don't expect it to come by a significant margin. The fact is that Orlando has been one of the hottest teams in the league dating back to late January. The Magic have been shooting the ball very well and are playing with a ton of confidence. When you get a team like that getting double digits (by the way this line has gone from opening at 8.5 in some shops to now as 10.5 in some shops) this fits the very definition of a high value dangerous dog. Orlando will be playing in Toronto for the 3rd time already this month and 4th time since late February so they're certainly getting more and more comfortable playing here. As for confidence level, the Magic are actually 3-2 SU versus the Raptors this season and one of those two losses came by just 2 points. The other one came by a dozen points but Orlando actually had 9 more shots from the field than Toronto did but yet lost by 12 because the Raptors hit an insane 19 of 37 three pointers. Again, you can see why I am seeing value signs flashing here when we can get Orlando plus double digit points given all of the above factors. Toronto is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games and also 2-6 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series! The Magic are 13-4 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and also 15-4 ATS this season against Atlantic Division opponents. Grab the undervalued big dog in this one. 10* ORLANDO

Rise of the Fallen - Rickenbach NBA Game #522 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 8 ET - After being embarrassed in Game 1 and ruthlessly criticized as the most unacceptable effort of any team so far in this post-season, the 76ers respond Monday. The reason you're seeing this line exactly where it was at for Game 1 is because the odds makers are expecting the same thing that sharp bettors, the Sixers will respond in a big way here. If you look at the box score from Saturday's ugly home loss for Philadelphia, you'll see that the Nets and Sixers each took about 25 three-pointers. The difference? Brooklyn made 11 of theirs and the 76ers made a paltry 3 of theirs...on their home floor no less! The point is that this is a 24 point difference. If you assume the teams just shot equally from beyond the arc in Game 1 the Sixers win the game by a 15-point margin. Philly won the rebounding battle and also got to the line more - 16 more free throw attempts than the Nets. Back to the 3 point shooting, note that the Nets shot 35% from three point land this season while the Sixers shot 38% from beyond the arc in their home games. In other words, you can see just how unlikely those disparate 3-point shooting stats were in Game 1. Philly is a long-term 38-19 ATS when revenging a home loss and that includes 7-3 ATS this season! The Nets are 8-17 SU when they enter a game on an under streak of 3 or more consecutive unders. That SU record is noteworthy here as the Nets last 22 losses have featured 18 by 8 or more points. In other words, when Brooklyn loses they normally lose big and I expect that to prove to be the case again today. Payback time! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Sunday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 1 ET - The Pacers, of course, are without Victor Oladipo but that has been the situation since late January so they have already adjusted. As for the Celtics, they just lost Marcus Smart to an oblique injury and he'll miss this series entirely. Additionally, Boston's Jaylen Brown continues to deal with back spasms. The Pacers lost here by just 2 points two weeks ago but then last week the Celtics pounded them at Indiana. However, the Pacers were missing guard Darren Collison for that game and he is back now. Even though Boston only went 7-6 down the stretch, Indiana did even worse by going 4-9. That allowed the Celtics to overtake the Pacers and have the home court edge in this series. However, Indiana knows they can take it back with just one win here in Boston. Yesterday we saw 3 of the 4 road dogs not even cover but win the game outright to open up their first round playoff series. I would not be surprised to see the same thing here. The Pacers are on a 7-2 ATS run in playoff games. The Celtics went 6-12 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Boston wasn't playing well enough in the latter part of the season to justify laying 7 points here. The Pacers nearly beat them here March 29th and the Celtics had Smart for that game. When you can grab a sizable dog that has a great shot at the outright upset you do it. That is the case here. 8* INDIANA

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 2:30 ET - With the news that Joel Embiid is doubtful for this game, great line value for the Sixers has been created. They are laying a short number here considering they absolutely coasted down the stretch, rested guys, didn't play defense, and the list goes on. Watch what happens today now that the games actually matter again, they are at home, and the other 4 starters will all be on the floor. Butler, Simmons, Harris and Redick form quite a grouping of talent even if Embiid does not play. Also the pick up of big man Boban Marjanovic has truly proven to be a big addition with Embiid's ongoing knee and back issues. Boban Marjanovic is quite the presence in the paint. Brooklyn had a losing record on the road this season plus went 19-35 SU as an underdog this season. From a SU perspective, the 76ers (31-10 SU at home) certainly should win this game. What about the spread though? Consider that Philly is on a 4-1 ATS run in first round playoff games. Also, the Nets last 22 losses have featured 18 by 8 or more points. In other words, when Brooklyn loses they normally lose big and I expect that to prove to be the case again today. Great line value here as this line has dropped from a 7.5 to a 5.5 and, honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Embiid does get some minutes in this game. But even without him, the Sixers are the much better team than the Nets and they defend home court here, literally! Look for a much better effort from the 76ers defense than what you've been seeing late in the regular season. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Tuesday 8* Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Raptors are going to the post-season of course and the Wolves are not. Toronto also has been playing much better than Minnesota has. However, this is the Raptors last game of the regular season and they are locked into the #2 spot in the Eastern Conference. Of course Toronto would like to close the regular season with a win and wants to continue to play well. However, the last thing they want is to get anyone injured in this game. Of course Minnesota has no concerns about that and I expect them to go very hard in what is their final home game of the season. The Timberwolves are off a poor effort on defense that cost them in a 6-point home loss to Oklahoma City Sunday. I expect Minnesota to respond here in what is their last chance to get a win for the home fans. Many will likely be surprised to hear this (and I am aware that Minnesota is a different team now than earlier in the season) but the Wolves 25-15 home record is identical to the Raptors 25-15 road record. In other words, and especially given the situation, should Toronto really be laying 7 here? Absolutely not! Give me the home dog in this one! 8* MINNESOTA 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #504 Tuesday 8* Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The line on Charlotte has gone from as low as a -6 to as high as a -8 and that makes sense for multiple reasons. The Hornets need to win for playoff reasons, Cleveland has lost 9 straight games, and Charlotte has won 3 straight games. However, the key reason it doesn't make sense is a mediocre Hornets team is laying a big number on the road against a Cavaliers playing their final game of the season and the Cavs are at home. I don't see Cleveland laying down in a situation like this as they also can play the role of spoiler here. Additionally, Charlotte is banged up right now. The home team has won all 3 games this season and each win has come by double digits. While I don't necessarily see the Cavs winning this one at home by double digits I also certainly don't foresee a full reversal and the Hornets winning this by double digits on the road. In other words, look for a dog fight to the finish in this one. Charlotte is 5-14 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in Tuesday games this season and will go hard for the home fans in their final game of the season. 8* CLEVELAND

The Game Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Monday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 9:20 PM ET - As I wrote in my analysis that accompanied my selection on the Red Raiders over Michigan State Saturday, this Texas Tech team is for real and has the stifling defense and enough senior presence (half of their playing rotation) to get the job done here! With their win over the Spartans, the Red Raiders are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games that have had a line in single digits. Two great defenses but the Cavaliers have been so fortunate in this tournament I feel it comes to an end here. Lightning usually doesn't strike twice but it has for the Cavs. After their lucky win (and insane cover!) over Purdue where they were fortunate the game even went to OT, Virginia dodged another bullet with the insane finish in a win over Auburn. This Red Raiders team won't make the same "end game mistakes" that the Tigers did. First off, when you're ahead by 4 and don't at least get a hand up on a guy shooting a 3 that is their hottest shooter with 20 seconds to go you have made a huge mistake. Then, with a 2 point lead and the clock winding down to the final second you do make a run at a guy shooting a 3 and end up getting your body into him? Players fault or the fault of the coach? Either way you won't see the same mistakes with this Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders have proven to be incredibly focused throughout this tourney and I just don't see them being denied. Look for them to get an early jump on the Cavaliers here and then their stifling defense does the rest as Virginia can't quite climb back! Remember the scoring drought the Cavs had late in the game against Auburn? I mentioned that could be an issue in my write-up (had Tigers plus points over Cavaliers) and the fact is those types of scoring droughts continue to be an issue for this Virginia team. That will eventually be the straw that breaks the camels back as the saying goes. It hasn't happened yet but, like I said above, it is rare enough for lighting to strike twice in same place and even more rare to happen 3 times in a row. The Cavs are a great team don't get me wrong but, so too are the Red Raiders, but the luck the Cavaliers have had to even get here is unreal. Just like when I faded Duke after their insanely tight win, I'll fade Virginia again here as the REd Raiders improve to 12-0 ATS L12 games with a line in single digits. 10* TEXAS TECH

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #578 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The first number that popped up off shore on this one Saturday afternoon had the Celtics favored by 6.5 and it has dropped to as low as a 4.5 as of early Sunday morning. This is offering us great line value here with Boston at home as Orlando is currently getting a little too much respect. The Magic are off a blowout win but it came against an Atlanta team that decided just to "go through the motions" on Friday. Orlando took advantage on their home floor. But now the Magic are on the road and facing a Boston team that, as usual, has been strong at home this season. Also, the Celtics are motivated here as they look to lock up the home seed for their upcoming first round series with the Pacers. Orlando is only 15-24 on the road this season and the Celtics are 28-12 at home on the season. Each of the last 7 losses for the Magic have come by 5 or more points with each of the last 6 coming by 8 or more points. 10 of the Celtics last 12 wins have come by 5 or more points. The home team is 12-4 ATS in Orlando's last 16 games. The Magic have been hot but the Celtics are also heating up, including Gordon Hayward, and they've won 5 of their last 6 games. 10* BOSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 8:50 PM ET - My selection here involving the Spartans game actually has a lot to do with their in-state rival, the Wolverines. Strange, right? But let me explain. First off when the Spartans play Michigan it is a big deal of course. This season, Michigan State faced Michigan 3 times and won 3 hard-fought games. The key? They are 0-3 ATS in their game that followed the Wolverines. How does that relate here? The Spartans are off a very hard-fought win over Duke which they viewed as their road-block to the Championship. In other words, beat the Blue Devils and win it all. Texas Tech may have something to say about that first but before moving along to the Red Raiders, let me finish by saying that the only bigger opponent for Michigan State this season than Michigan was Duke and you could see the huge emotion for the Spartans after that game. Look for another flat performance off such a huge, emotional win. Now comes the other key part of how Michigan ties into this one. The Wolverines had a tremendous team this season and are very well coached. That Michigan team just faced the Red Raiders last week and the Wolverines didn't score their 20th point until they were 5 minutes into the 2nd half! Texas Tech absolutely dominated them and I am not saying they will do the same thing to Michigan State but I am saying the Red Raiders get the upset here. I personally bet the money line on this game but certainly I would recommend you grab the points for added insurance. However, this Texas Tech team is for real and has the stifling defense and enough senior presence (half of their playing rotation) to get the job done here! The Red Raiders are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games that had a line in single digits. Two great defenses but the Spartans feel like they won the Championship already after beating Duke while the Red Raiders are still fully focused here and get an early jump on the Spartans here and then their defense does the rest as the Spartans can't quite climb back! 10* TEXAS TECH

NBA TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers, of course, have some injury/rest concerns as they try and get prepared for the playoffs. However, their inexcusable loss to the Bucks (Philly led by 5 with just a couple minutes left) has resulted in the Sixers FIRST 3-game losing streak of this entire season. Of course it is a bad time to be cold and they know it. They will respond here and, as far as whom sits and whom plays for the Sixers, note that the Bulls are also ravaged by injuries. Chicago is off an upset in at Washington as roughly a double digit dog too. How did they do it? The Wizards played like they didn't care and the Bulls (even with many unknown players) shot a ridiculous 61% from two-point land. I will challenge them to do that again here as they take on a very hungry 76ers team that certainly is in a much different situation than that of the Wizards. This Philly teams needs a win and needs to get their confidence and swagger back so I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas here. Keep in mind, the Sixers also are now in need of at least one win to lock down the #3 seed they've worked so hard for. Plenty of motivation here and don't let the big spread scare you. Philly, finally, goes the full 48 minutes in this one! They have two days off after this so the 76ers will NOT hold back. The Bulls are 14-25 ATS at home this season. Chicago is also 6-11 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. Also, the Bulls most recent loss came by 8 points but 6 of the prior 8 came by 9 or more points and this one has double digit blowout written all over it. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #803 Saturday 8* Auburn Tigers (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 6:10 ET - You saw what happened to Duke last week. After surviving in essentially miracle fashion, the Blue Devils luck ran out. If there was ever a win (in such a big game) luckier than the one the Cavs just had last week against Purdue I'd like to see it. It was a miracle enough that they won the game as they were very fortunate it even got to OT but what was even more miraculous (or sickening if you were holding a Purdue +4.5 ticket like me) was that they got the cover in OT. The Cavaliers got that cover very late too. In other words, the cover came out of nowhere. Similar to how I faded Duke (with Michigan State) after a miracle win I am doing the same thing here with Auburn over Virginia as this Tigers team is about as dangerous of a team as you can face right now. The fact is that Bruce Pearl's team is really starting to believe in themselves now and confidence is key when you're a three point shooting team. This team lives and dies with the three and they showed me a lot in the win over Kentucky as the Tigers finally had a rougher shooting game with the three ball but were just hot enough at the right times to gut out a win. That makes them very dangerous here. With the time off between games there could be some rust with the outside shooting early and, I would not be surprised if it is the Cavs with the half-time lead but eventually I expect Auburn to be in line for the upset win here. I am grabbing the points as, if they do fall short, I expect it to be by only one or two possessions (at most). Virginia hasn't covered B2B games since early March and the Cavaliers last two covers have only covered by a combined 2 points! The Cavs luck runs out here as Auburn continues playing the "us against the world" them as a #5 seed that continues to surprise. The Tigers are on 12-game winning streak and feel like they can beat anyone. We've seen the Cavaliers offense go through some rough stretches at times. That will prove to be their undoing here as they'll be in a war in the second half just to try to win (let alone cover) this one. 8* AUBURN

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Saturday 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 5:05 ET - Not only are the Bucks off a miracle cover at Philadelphia Thursday (they were -5.5 and won by 6 despite being down by 5 with just a couple minutes left in game), it is also true that Milwaukee could care or less about this game. The Bucks have already locked up the #1 seed for the post-season in the Eastern Conference. They want to stay in rhythm but they also want to avoid injury. Even if they do get up by double digits in this game (which I honestly do not expect) the back door would be wide open for the Nets to come back as, again, there just isn't motivation here for Milwaukee. As for Brooklyn, there is some motivation as they've lost all 3 games with the Bucks by a double digit margin this season. Look for this one to be much closer than the other 3 given the situation. Also, Milwaukee is 2-7 ATS this season in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230. The Nets are 9-4 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games and they get the cash again here. 8* BROOKLYN

SE Div GOY - Rickenbach NBA Game #535 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - This is one of those beautiful late season situations simply too good to pass up on. The Magic control their own destiny because if they win out they are in the post-season. However, they now host a divisional foe that would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here. Keep in mind, even without big man Dewayne Dedmon, the Hawks continue to look strong! Atlanta has won 5 of its last 7 SU and also gone 6-1 ATS during this stretch. They are relishing the role of spoiler and truly fit the bill as a dangerous dog in a spot like this. All the pressure is on the Magic here and when a team starts to feel pressure that is when they start losing their shooting touch. This line has gone from as low as a -6 yesterday afternoon all the way up to as high as a -9 early this morning. Of course bettors love to bet the teams that "need to win" and yet that so often proves to be the WRONG thing to do and I fully expect that will be the case again tonight. The Magic are going to have a fight on their hands with the Hawks who continue to scratch, flight, and claw their way to gritty victories and covers. With Trae Young dominating the backcourt and John Collins getting it done in the frontcourt, the Hawks have proven to be a handful for playoff-bound teams like the 76ers and Spurs. Perhaps Atlanta falls short of the upset tonight but, if they do, I expect them to lose this game by only a possession or two so the points should prove to be more than enough here for the cover! The Hawks also are 11-6 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. The Magic are 3-11 ATS (and only 5-9 SU) in Friday night games this season. Upset alert! 10* ATLANTA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers have been resting Joel Embiid and that could be the case again tonight plus Jimmy Butler is a question mark too. Of course this is why you're seeing the Bucks favored by as much as 5.5 in this one as of Thursday morning when lines first popped up again on this after it was off the board. Philadelphia is off back to back losses but the Sixers are 6-0 SU this season when they enter a game off B2B losses. You read that right...Philly has NOT lost three straight games yet this season and yet they are a 5.5 point home dog here. I'll take it! Yes the Bucks are a great team but Philly isn't just going to lay down here at home. Also, the Sixers cupboard certainly is far from bare if they decide to rest 1 or 2 players tonight. The Bucks have lost 5 of their last 8 road games SU. Also, the Bucks depth has been impacted by a slew of injuries lately. The Sixers won and covered the most recent meeting in Milwaukee as well as each of the last two meetings in Philly and I look for more of the same here. I do expect the outright win but am grabbing the points for added "insurance" here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #728 Thursday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns (-) vs Lipscomb Bisons @ 7 ET - Hats off to Lipscomb for making it this far but they aren't facing Wichita State tonight. They are facing a Big 12 team that has shown, when it wants to, it can play great basketball on both ends of the floor. The Shockers, inexcusably, blew a late double digit lead against the Bisons on Tuesday. As a result, Lipscomb instead of Wichita State is here tonight and now we can take advantage of the betting markets infatuation with a Bisons team that hails from a conference that is nowhere near the talent level of the Big 12. Teams like Lipscomb can go on tourney runs and look great in doing so but how many times do you remember a team like this hoisting a championship trophy? Maybe for the CIT or CBI Tourney, yes. But when it comes to the Big Dance (NCAA) or the 2nd best tourney in the nation (NIT) you will see from looking at the list of champions they come from bigger conferences than the Atlantic Sun. If this was a smaller tourney like the CBI or CIT I would have some concern about backing the Horns. But on the grand stage of Madison Square Garden, Texas will not be denied here and I love the fact I can get them at -1 this morning. How much difference is there in these two conferences? When the Bisons beat TCU earlier this season in a meaningless non-conference match-up (Horned Frogs would have been much more motivated on a stage like this) that was the FIRST WIN in Lipscomb's last 10 games against a Big 12 team. If TCU was here they would be exacting revenge but that win the Bisons have over the Frogs also only strengthens the fact that Lipscomb has the full attention of the Horns and will be the recipient of the Longhorns "A game" here. Another way to compare these teams: the TOP 5 teams in the Atlantic Sun included North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, and New Jersey Institutional Tech - yes that powerhouse NJIT (tongue in cheek). The TOP 5 teams in the Big 12 - Texas Tech, Kansas State, Kansas, Baylor, and Iowa State. This line is roughly a pick'em and I don't see the Longhorns being denied here. They beat them by 23 points last season and the Bisons haven't improved THAT much in one year nor have the Horns fallen THAT much in one year. It was no fluke either as the Horns won the first half by 14 and second half by 9. They dominated the game. I can see Lipscomb putting a scare into Texas and hanging around for awhile but eventually the difference in talent level will be evident and the Longhorns will pull away. 10* TEXAS 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Wednesday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - At first glance one would have to question how can the Wizards (eliminated from post-season contention and just terminated the team president) be favored by double digits over anyone. Well, against these Bulls it actually makes perfect sense! Chicago is expected to again be without their 4 leading scorers and they account for about 70 points per game for the Bulls! Of course this is too much to overcome and that was proven when they lost to the lowly Knicks in their most recent game. Chicago is currently putting a team on the floor filled with inexperienced players who are trying to adjust to the NBA game. Conversely, though Washington is also "getting a look" at players for next season, the Wizards younger players are thriving. Washington just won at Denver and got strong contributions from a number of players. The Wizards are playing hard and have won 3 straight games ATS and they rallied from a 15 point and then allowed just 28 second half points to the Nuggets on Sunday. Though just returning from a road trip out west, the fact that the Wizards have had two full off days to prep for this game means they'll be ready and I expect them to dominate on their home floor. Washington will take advantage of a very short-handed Bulls team. Chicago has failed to cover 3 in a row and I foresee the Wizards improving to 4-0 ATS their last 4 games with a dominating home win. 10* WASHINGTON

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #580 Tuesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:05 ET - Perfect spot for a contrarian play. We get a little extra value here because the Lakers have surprisingly won 4 of their last 5 SU and are on a 5-0 ATS run. The Thunder have been struggling. The key here is OKC is at home and angry due to losing 7 of their last 9 games. Also, this is a home revenge spot for Oklahoma City as they lost as a host versus the Lakers in January. The Thunder lost that game by double digits despite being a double digit favorite! Payback comes big tonight! OKC is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS on the season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Lakers are 9-18 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The recent wins for Los Angeles all have come against below .500 teams. They face a much different "animal" tonight and that "animal" is angry and seeking revenge. This will be a home blowout. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY

NW Div #1 Top Game - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - Great line value here with the Trail Blazers coming off a loss. Yes the Timberwolves recently upset Golden State but that certainly has been the exception rather than the norm for this slumping Minnesota team. Other than that win, the Wolves have won just 1 of their last 8 games and that victory came against lowly Memphis. Now Minnesota is hosting a Trail Blazers team that is angry off a loss and won't lack for focus here. Keep in mind the Blazers lost at Minnesota early this season so they'll be ready to exact road revenge here. Yes, Portland has won their two home match-ups with the Timberwolves this season but now it is time for road payback for that loss in mid-November. As mentioned above, the Blazers enter this game off a loss but, prior to that defeat, they had won 9 of their last 10 games. Yes, Portland is without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic but that is factored into this line. The fact is that the Wolves are without a number of players too as they enter this match-up and this is simply a matter of the much better in a great spot (off a loss) facing a team that has faded down the stretch run. The result is great line value with the short road favorite. Minnesota is 2-5 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. The Blazers are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record and roll again here. Each of the Trail Blazers last 28 wins have come by a margin of 4 or more points! Each of the Wolves last 14 losses have come by a margin of 5 or more points. Lay the short number! 10* PORTLAND

CBI #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #701 Monday 10* Top Play DePaul Blue Demons (+) @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - This is the first game of the best out of three CBI Championship Series. Most will look at this game and see the team with the overall better record at home and at roughly a pick'em price and just jump all over the host. Of course that is where contrarian viewpoints become so important. There is a reason this game is priced this way. The Blue Demons play in the Big East. The Bulls play in the American Athletic Conference. As a result of that, as well as the way their non-conference schedules were laid out this season, DePaul has played a tougher strength of schedule than South Florida. Of course that is factored into this line but much of the betting market overlooks that and looks at this one as "easy" to take the Bulls on their home floor. Of course, we all know how that typically plays out when something looks "easy". There is nothing easy in this business and that is why I generally maintain a contrarian viewpoint on games. We have plenty of support for a play on DePaul here. South Florida has won 3 straight games but they previously lost 7 of their last 8. Also, the Bulls have been held to 41% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The Blue Demons are loaded with confidence right now on the offensive end as they've been shooting lights out. This is particularly true of late but the hot shooting run generally extends all the way back to mid-February. Just as you've seen with Auburn in the Big Dance, when a team gets hot with their shooting they can make a huge run. That is what the Blue Demons have been doing and it continues here. Yes they've been at home so far and now are on the road for this game but the Blue Demons have scored 73 points or more in 5 straight road games! More of the same expected here! 10* DE PAUL

Rematch Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #691 Sunday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:05 ET - The Spartans seek revenge for last season's regular season loss to the Blue Devils and, of course, there is much more at stake with this match-up than last season's early season match-up. Michigan State has been dominating of late while the Blue Devils have been just getting by for close wins. What really factors into this is the line value as we're getting 2.5 points as of early Sunday morning and taking a look at Duke's last 14 games as a good sample size reveals a lot. The Blue Devils are 11-3 SU in those 14 games but 5 of the 11 wins have come by 2 or less points. So if you had +2.5 going against the Blue Devils you cashed in about half of their SU wins plus got the outright upset 3 times. Duke, plain and simple, is fortunate to be here. They are on a 3-11 ATS run but continue to attract bets because, well, their Duke! Truly they are a public team and everyone wants to be the #1 seed here and lay a short number. I am expecting an upset however and we've got some great technical support for backing Tom Izzo's team here. Michigan State is 9-2 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. The Spartans are also 11-2 ATS when off a game in which they scored 80 points or more. The Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The Spartans certainly hold the edge in experience and I look for freshman-laden Duke's luck to run out in this one. 10* MICHIGAN STATE 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #681 Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 8:50 ET - This line opened around a 4 and got driven up to a 5 on Virginia. Of course that is not a surprise as the Cavaliers are a #1 seed and the Boilermakers weren't supposed to make it this far. Let me remind everyone about an expression that comes to mind with this match-up "when something looks too good to be true..." and you guys know the rest of the words. The point is that it looks so easy to lay small points with the Cavs here but I am not falling for it. This Purdue team is starting to believe and lets not forget the collapses that Virginia has had in the past. There is a lot of pressure on the Cavaliers here while Purdue - of course not expected to win - can simply come in relaxed and just play their game. There is no pressure on the Boilers here. Keep in mind the Boilermakers, in their last two games, have beaten the defending national champs (and beat them soundly!) and then knocked off one of this season's top teams Thursday! As for the Cavaliers, their average line has been -14 so far in this tournament. Now they finally get tested and remember this team has a great defense but has been known to stall offensively and then that is when upsets happen. The Boilers did not play well defensively against the Vols but had held their first two opponents in the Big Dance to just 30% shooting from the field. Purdue is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. Virginia is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. The Boilermakers are 11-0 SU when off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points! I expect the upset but am grabbing the points. The Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in NCAA Tourney games. 8* PURDUE

NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The markets sometimes help create value where it otherwise should not be and that is the beauty of a situation like this. First off this line was first up at an 8.5 but then got taken down because of Joel Embiid possibly missing this game. Now that it is confirmed that he will sit this game out to get extra rest the line has now plummeted to as low as a 4.5 this morning. The funny thing is did anyone pay attention to last night's games? The 76ers were NOT in action and were resting and getting ready for this game. As for the Wolves they were in the middle of a hard-fought overtime win over the World Champion Warriors last night! So now after knocking off the champs and taking OT to do it, the short-handed Timberwolves (a number of players out recently) are supposed to beat a Sixers team that has man-handled them in recent meetings? Yes I know about the "revenge against Jimmy Butler" angle but Philly is the far superior team and in a much better scheduling situation. This game is set up to be a road rout! Prior to beating GS last night, Minnesota had lost 10 of their 14 prior games. The 76ers enter this game having won 7 of their last 9 games. The Sixers are off a big win over Brooklyn and are 11-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. The Timberwolves are on a 15-25 ATS run in March games. 10* PHILADELPHIA

March Madness Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #673 Friday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (+) vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET - Did you notice yesterday that the lines (compared to seeding) were, as you would expect, very small spreads on the 2 vs 3 match-ups and then, as you would expect, bigger spreads on the 1 vs 4 match-up and 1 vs 12 match-up. That said, why is it that today the biggest seed differential (1 vs 5) has the 3rd smallest spread? Both Michigan State (in a 2 vs 3) and Duke (in a 1 vs 4) have bigger spreads than the North Carolina - Auburn match-up? I'll tell you why. It is because the odds makers are very sharp and they know what their doing here. Don't be fooled by the line. I am expecting a Tigers upset but happy to grab all the points I can get should Auburn fall just short. The fact is that the Tigers live and die with the 3-ball but they have been very hot of late and very consistent and I expect that to be a key to the cover here. Note that Auburn has made 35% or better from 3 point land in 7 straight games. Not only is this all part of an 8-game stretch that has seen the Tigers only be dealt 1 ATS loss, it also holds significance when you look at an interesting not about the Tar Heels. Let's look at North Carolina's last 13 games. UNC went 8-5 ATS in those games. What was the key with the 5 ATS losses? The Tar Heels allowed 35% or better from 3 point land in all 5 ATS defeats! In their 8 ATS wins they held their opponent under 35% in all 8 covers! Now they face an Auburn team that has been red hot from beyond the arc (all on neutral floors too!) and I fully expect the Tigers to give UNC hell from beyond the arc in this one. By the way, North Carolina is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games against SEC opponents. The Tigers are a perfect 3-0 SU in neutral court games with a posted total in the 160s. Upset alert but grab the points for added insurance. 10* AUBURN

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #668 Friday 8* Michigan State Spartans (-) vs LSU Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Spartans are the stronger team defensively and I look for that to key the victory here. Certainly Michigan State has a tremendous experience level under coach Tom Izzo at this level. The Spartans are off a strong defensive effort and note that they are a perfect 14-0 SU (11-3 ATS) when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less this season. If Michigan State takes that record to 15-0 SU an ATS cover is likely to be the result as well since LSU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 SU losses. That's right, the only Tigers cover in a SU loss this season was 4 months ago in late November. Note that LSU enters this game on an 0-3 ATS run. Also, the Tigers are on a 5-11 ATS run in all tournament games. LSU is averaging 81 points per game this season but the Spartans are a superb 9-3 ATS (10-2 SU) this season in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. 8* MICHIGAN STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #651 Thursday 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 7:30 PM ET - A lot of people will be looking at Tennessee here after getting burned by them against Iowa. However, the fact is the Vols are fortunate to even be here after managing to gut out a win in overtime. Had the Hawkeyes managed to get that timeout called right near the end of regulation the Volunteers could have been knocked out of the tourney after blowing that massive lead. The fact is the Vols go from facing one tough Big Ten team to facing an even tougher team! Purdue faced Iowa once this season and knocked them off by double digits. The Boilers have been playing fantastic on the defensive end in this tournament and, going further back, have held 7 of their last 10 opponents under 40% from the field. In fact only one of those 10 teams shot better than 42.9% from the field. As for the Vols D, they entered the Iowa game having allowed 44.6% or more from the field in 4 of their 5 prior games. That said, though their full game numbers against the Hawkeyes look solid, the Volunteers were in full scramble mode trying to contain Iowa in what was a massive 2nd half beatdown. Truly an inexcusable performance when you're supposed to be one of the best teams in the nation. That said, just watch what happens now when the Volunteers face an even tougher opponent! The Vols are 4-9 ATS their last 13 games for a reason - they are over-rated! The Boilers are peaking at the right time and I fully expect them to improve to 6-2 ATS their last 8 games with another W here. Long-term Tennessee is on an 8-21 ATS run when their line ranges from a pick'em to a -3 on a neutral court. The Boilermakers are on a 26-14 ATS run in non-conference games and continue to be under-valued by the betting markets. 8* PURDUE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - Enough is enough for the Sixers. After knocking off their nemesis (and long-time rival) Boston, they've lost back to back games at Atlanta and Orlando. Now they are back home and in need of a big win and the Nets are going to feel the wrath. Note that Philly is 5-0 SU this season when they enter a game off B2B SU losses. You read that right. The Sixers have NEVER lost 3 straight game this entire season and I don't expect that to change here either. However, what about the spread (currently 7.5) on this game? The fact is that the Nets are 7-26 ATS in their last 33 losses! In other words, when you're holding a Brooklyn ticket and they lose the game SU, you're only cashing your ticket about 20% of the time! I like the 76ers to roll big at home in this one as they also are playing this game with home loss revenge. That is a situation that has seen them go 37-19 ATS in recent seasons including 6-3 ATS this season. Also, when the Sixers are off a loss by a double digit margin, they've gone 37-18 in recent seasons including a superb 10-3 ATS this season. This one has home blowout written all over it. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #619 Tuesday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 9 ET - I am happy to challenge TCU here. The Horned Frogs have struggled in the biggest of games this season. TCU went a combined 0-7 against Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Kansas this season. The Horned Frogs enter this game off back to back wins and covers but they entered the NIT Tournament on a 3-11 ATS run. As for the Bluejays, they are peaking at the right time. With each win the confidence grows and Creighton enters this game having won 7 of their last 8 games both SU and ATS. Also, the lone loss during that stretch came by just 2 points and would be an ATS win based on the current number posted on this game. By the way, that number has grown too and I like fading the masses. The earliest number on this game had TCU at "just" a -3 so, of course, everyone jumped on the Horned Frogs at a small number on their home floor and drove the line to as high as a -4.5 in some spots. Creighton has a rest edge here as they have had 3 days off prior to this game while the Horned Frogs will be playing this game with just one day of rest. Note that TCU is a poor 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they've played a game with 1 day or less of rest between games. Give me the points with the rested team rolling with confidence right now. 10* CREIGHTON

Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - Many will be looking to fade Orlando here because they are off a big win over the 76ers last night so it looks like the ideal spot to go against a team in a back to back situation. However, remember that we are now at the point in the season where there are very few "tomorrows" left for a team. In other words, the Magic need to win now or their season will be coming to an end. They are in a battle with Miami for the top spot in the Southeast Division and punching their ticket to the post-season. That said, there is absolutely not going to be a letdown here from the Magic in the slightest sense of the word. The time to win is now. I also like the fact that Orlando did have two days off prior to hosting the Sixers last night so they are truly not that fatigued here. Additionally, hosting Philly last night was just the 3rd game for Orlando in the past 8 days! As for Miami, though they have been off two days heading into this one they had played 5 games in 7 days prior to the 2-day break. In fact one could argue that the Magic should have the fresher legs here overall despite being in a back to back. Orlando has played less recently than Miami has. Also, not much distance separates these instate rivals so it truly should not come as a big surprise that the road team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Heat won and covered their most recent home game but that was preceded by a 4-9 ATS run as a host! Also, the Magic are surging with confidence as they bring a 5-game winning streak into this one. If Orlando falls just short here I like the fact we've got a handful of points to work with as well but I am expecting the outright upset here. The Magic are 16-7 ATS after scoring 115 points or more and also 12-6 ATS this season after a win by a double digit margin. Last night they held Philly without a field goal for a stretch of 12 minutes! Miami is 1-6 SU and ATS in Tuesday games and the Heat are an ugly 5-10 ATS in divisional match-ups this season. 10* ORLANDO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #558 Tuesday 8* Charlotte Hornets (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are off a big road win at Boston on Sunday. However, the road has not been kind to San Antonio of late. In fact the Spurs were 3-8 in their last 11 road games prior to beating the Celtics. Now instead of facing a floundering Boston team that is struggling, the Spurs visit Charlotte where the Hornets are rested and have been buzzing. Charlotte was off yesterday and they enter this game still very much alive in the 3-way race for the Southeast Division. With Miami battling Orlando tonight, the Hornets know that with a win over the Spurs they would be able to gain ground on one of those two teams for sure once tonight's results are in the books. Charlotte enters this game having won 3 straight SU and ATS. Also the Hornets have won 3 of their last 4 home games SU and they are catching a few points here. I like the home dog value being offered here with all things considered. The Spurs are 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they were off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. Look for that trend to continue here. 8* CHARLOTTE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Monday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Great line value here. Orlando is getting some attention because they've won 4 straight games. However, even with winning those 4 games the Magic still have a losing record on the season. Philadelphia is angry after losing at downtrodden Atlanta on Saturday and will atone for that performance here. The 76ers are 9-2 SU their last 11 games against a team with a losing record. Speaking of losing records, the Hawks were one of 4 teams with losing records that Orlando has beaten in their 4-game winning streak. The other 3 were the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Cavaliers. Those 4 teams are all eliminated from post-season contention and are a combined 86 games under .500 on the season! Now the Magic host a Philly team that is angry off a loss and is 21 games over .500 on the season. This is tremendous line value to have with the Sixers laying a short number and it is because they are on the road and because of Orlando's "fools gold" 4-game winning streak. The Magic face a true test today and it is one they will fail. Philly is 5-1 their last 6 against Orlando and the 5 wins have come by an average margin of a dozen points. Keep in mind the 76ers are 20-5 SU this season when off a loss and this line is only a -2. In other words, any SU win is likely to also equate to an ATS win. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #606 Monday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 7 ET - Coastal Carolina has the better record on the season but West Virginia has played the much tougher schedule. The Mountaineers are a fantastic 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. West Virginia is also 9-3 ATS in a home game where the total is 155 to 159.5 points. The Chanticleers are 0-7 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Coastal Carolina is 1-3 ATS in a road game where the total is 155 to 159.5 points. The Chanticleers enters this game on an overall 3-8 ATS run and have shot the ball poorly in 3 straight games. That is unlikely to improve in a road game at West Virginia! The Mountaineers are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last 3 home games and the average margin of victory was a dozen points even though they were a dog in 2 of the 3 games! Home blowout here. 8* WEST VIRGINIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Monday 10* Top Play Utah Valley Wolverines (-) @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - The Auburn Tigers are in the Sweet 16 in the Big Dance. What does that have to do with this play? Plenty! The Tigers barely survived their first round game when they beat the New Mexico State Aggies by just a single point. That is the same Aggies team that finished ahead of Utah Valley in the WAC this season. The Wolverines faced New Mexico State twice this season and lost to them by an average margin of just 6 points. Had the Aggies got by Auburn it might be New Mexico State in the Sweet 16 and the point is that Utah Valley - a team many may not follow that closely - is actually a quality basketball program. Look for the Wolverines to upset the Bulls here. South Florida barely survived Stony Brook to get to this point. Prior to that win, the Bulls had lost 7 of their 8 prior games. They've been on a late season fade and Utah Valley's strength of schedule is NOT that much different from USF on the season. That said, the fact that the Wolverines are 24-6 in their last 30 games and the Bulls are 2-7 in their last 9 games means plenty! 10* UTAH VALLEY

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:35 ET - While it is true that this is a back to back spot for the Celtics, there are a number of reasons to like Boston plenty in this situation and laying a very short number. The line has dropped from a -3 to a -2 so we're getting some extra value here for sure. Keys to this play include the fact that the Celtics blew a huge late lead in their loss at Charlotte yesterday. As a result, Boston ended up with their 3rd straight SU loss. The Celtics are 9-2 SU and ATS the last 11 times they've entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Boston also has no shortage of motivation here. That's because the Spurs have held the upper hand in recent meetings and that includes the first match-up this season at San Antonio. The Celtics led that game by 6 at the half but then got outscored by 15 points in the 2nd half. It is payback time here. The Spurs are off back to back losses and their recent winning streak that grabbed a lot of attention was filled with home games and a majority of soft opponents. In other words, look for San Antonio to lose their 3rd straight game here as not only are they not at home, they are also certainly not facing a soft opponent. The Spurs have lost 4 of their last 6 road games and the only two wins came at Atlanta and Dallas. Those teams are a combined 37 games under .500 on the season! The Celtics are 98-42 at home including 26-11 this season. With those types of numbers and considering the low spread on this game, I am happy to lay the short number here. 10* BOSTON

2nd Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #869 Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 6:10 ET - The Bulls are a #6 seed for a reason. Yes they come from the MAC but no one in the MAC was anywhere close to their level this season. They were the top team in the conference by a huge margin and that truly puts them at a level of being able to compete with any team in the nation in my opinion. Buffalo is deep and loaded with scoring depth and experience. That is the type of team that can challenge a solid defense like the Red Raiders have. That said, and with this line climbing from +3 to a +4, I am happy to grab the underdog value here with Buffalo. Note that the Bulls are 9-2 ATS in non-conference games this season. Long-term Buffalo also has some impressive technical support here as the Bulls are 10-1 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5 points. The Red Raiders are 0-3 ATS (and SU!) in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5 points. Certainly I respect the Texas Tech defense but will they have enough offense to keep up with a Bulls team that has a very balanced attack on offense? I don't think so as I know that the Red Raiders have been scoring much better for an extended stretch now but they've also faced some match-ups that were very favorable for them and this one does not fall into that category in my opinion. I am expecting the upset here but will grab the points for added insurance should the Bulls fall just short. 10* BUFFALO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Sunday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 12:10 ET - As I mentioned in my write-up Friday when I had Iowa over Cincinnati, the Hawkeyes entered the Big Dance having lost 5 of their last 6 games SU and also on a 1-9 ATS run. However, the NCAA Tournament can be a "season" in and of its own and is like a fresh start. Certainly Iowa has a renewed feeling after upsetting the Bearcats in the first round and, keep in mind, they only recently got coach Fran McCaffery back after a couple of the late season losses in their slump had a little something to do with McCaffery's absence due to a suspension. The Hawkeyes shot lights out in the 2nd half of their Friday game and that was against a Cincinnati defense that is known for being tougher than this Volunteers defense. Certainly Tennessee is likely to score well in this game but I don't see them stopping Iowa. The Vols have been horrible at defending the arc particularly when away from home as they've allowed 39% three pointers on the season. In the last 5 games alone (including an unimpressive win over a Colgate team they should have dominated), the Volunteers have allowed 36% or better from three point land in all 5 games. Also, the Vols allowed an average of 78.4 points per game in those five games. This total is in the mid 150s and Tennessee has been giving up plenty of points and Iowa averages 78.3 points on the season. In other words a 78-77 type game decided on the final possession would truly not be much of a surprise. Even if the Vols manage to get a sizable lead in this game, the Hawkeyes potent scoring attack means the backdoor will be left wide open for a cover as the Vols continue to struggle rotating properly and getting off screens on outside shots. The Hawkeyes are 11-5 ATS in neutral court games including 5-1 ATS this season while the Volunteers are an unprofitable 10-9 SU and ATS last 19 games on a neutral court. 8* IOWA

PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #837 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 9 ET - Everyone is gunning for the national champions of course and it does make sense that the higher seed in this match-up would be the favorite. However, the result for us simply means exceptional line value. The defending champion Wildcats have been an underdog 5 times this season. The result has been a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in those games with 3 outright upsets. As for Purdue, they are a long-term 6-11 ATS in neutral court games where they are favored in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the most recent seasons in that role have seen the Boilermakers go 0-3 and two of the three losses were outright upsets which is what I am expecting here. Though Nova lost some key players from last season's team, they certainly are not without veteran leadership. Also, the Wildcats Jay Wright is absolutely one of the top coaches in the nation. This is a tough team to beat let alone beat by a couple buckets. Over the past 5 weeks Villanova hasn't been covering many of their games and this has resulted in diminished perception in the marketplace when it comes to the Wildcats. That leads to value in a spot like this because the Cats still have won 6 of their last 7 games SU and seem to be getting hot again at the perfect time. Purdue has not been shooting the ball well of late and they had lost 2 of 3 prior to knocking off an Old Dominion team that simply had a horrific shooting performance in their match-up Thursday. Also, the Boilers are on an 0-4 ATS run the last 4 times they've been a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Their struggles in that role continue here and I expect the upset but am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* VILLANOVA

Hidden Gem - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - I am calling this a hidden gem because the fact it is that on a Saturday when the NCAA Tournament is going in full force there is simply very little attention being paid to the NBA. That works in our favor here as this line should be much higher than an 8. This is a revenge game for Philadelphia as they suffered a home loss at the hands of the Hawks in January. While it is true that the 76ers are off a much needed revenge win over the Celtics, it is also true that they have had two full off days since that game and after facing the Hawks they face another team, Orlando, that also has a losing record on the season. The point is that even if the Sixers start off a bit sluggish in Atlanta their superior talent level is eventually going to lead to a double digit win. Keep in mind the Hawks also, it could be argued, are in a flat spot here. That is because they just rallied for an upset win over the Jazz on Thursday. Prior to that win the Hawks had lost 10 of their last 15 games. The 76ers enter this game having won 6 straight games. Atlanta is 5-11 ATS in games against teams from the Atlantic Division this season. Philly is a long-term 37-18 ATS (including 6-2 ATS this season) when playing with home loss revenge. Also, the Sixers are 11-3 ATS when off a divisional game this season. In other words, even though they are off that big win over the Celtics, don't be surprised when the 76'ers eventually roll to a road rout win at Atlanta on Saturday night. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #840 Saturday 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Murray State Racers @ 6:10 ET - The Racers are getting some love from the betting public after their big win over Marquette Thursday. However, the Golden Eagles don't have near the defensive capability that the Seminoles do. Look for Florida State's size and length to cause some issues for Murray State in this one. This line opened up as high as a 6 and has dropped to a 4.5 and there is great value here with laying a small number on FSU. The Seminoles have seen 25 of their 28 wins come by a margin of at least 5 points. In other words, if you expect the Noles to win this game, you can also can expect a high-percentage chance at covering the rather small number in this one. As for the Racers, they only have 4 SU losses on the season but all 4 came by at least a margin of 5 points. As you would expect given the different conferences these schools call home, Florida State has played a much tougher schedule than has Murray State. Also, the Racers are 2-7 ATS in a neutral court game with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. The Seminoles, unlike the Golden Eagles, do have the defenders needed to slow down Murray State's Ja Morant. That is a big key as to why this one will play out much differently for the Racers than their match-up with Marquette did. 8* FLORIDA STATE

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #844 Saturday 8* Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs Wofford Terriers @ 2:40 ET - The Terriers have won 22 straight games and are on a 13-1 ATS run. The betting public is well aware of that and is known for falling in love with the upstart underdog teams in the Big Dance. This has led to tremendously strong line value here on Kentucky. Yes it is the Wildcats first Big Dance for the young starters but their talent level is much greater than that of Wofford. Think about who the Terriers have played throughout this season and then think about all the quality teams that the Wildcats have gone toe to toe with throughout this season. Getting the Cats at a -5 here is an absolute bargain. Wofford actually only led Seton Hall by 1 point with under 5 minutes to go in their win over the Pirates. Certainly the Terriers deserve credit for their huge win and the fact that they close the game on a 17-2 run. However, the point is that this kind of late game run isn't happening here. This is not Seton Hall, this is a basketball program that is annually one of the best in the country. I can foresee Wofford hanging around in this one for awhile but eventually the talent of Kentucky takes over in this one. In non-conference action this season the Terriers did face some tougher teams. However, other than an upset win over South Carolina, note that Wofford lost to Mississippi State, North Carolina, Kansas, and Oklahoma. All 4 of those losses came by double digits. There is no reason to expect anything different here despite the betting markets current love affair with Wofford. 8* KENTUCKY

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #841 Saturday 8* Maryland Terrapins (+) vs LSU Tigers @ 12:10 ET - Both teams are off non-covering wins in the first round. For the Terrapins that makes them 1-4 ATS their last 5 games. On the season, when Maryland has entered a game having failed to cover the spread in 4 of their 5 prior games, they've covered their next game every single time. This will be the fourth such occurrence this season and I expect their record in this situation to improve to 4-0 ATS. As for the Tigers, they are now an ugly 5-9 ATS in neutral court games since the start of the 2016-17 season. Going further back, and specific to neutral court games where their line has ranged from a pick'em to a -3, LSU is a poor 6-10 ATS. In terms of a statistical analysis here, the Terrapins are the much better defensively and they also shoot the 3-ball better. I am expecting an upset but happy to grab the points being offered. 8* MARYLAND

1st Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #813 Friday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 9:50 ET - Having Kaleb Wesson back is a key for the Buckeyes and had he not had foul trouble and been limited to just 16 minutes versus Michigan State who knows how that eventual 7 point loss might have turned out. Keep in mind Wesson missed the final 3 games of the regular season and all 3 of those were losses. Certainly Wesson is an important player for Ohio State and he entered the Spartans game having scored 17 points or more in 3 of his 4 prior games. Also, Wesson had notched 5 steals, 7 assists, and 4 blocks in his 2 prior games. In his 5 prior games he had averaged 9.8 rebounds per game! The Buckeyes are 6-0 all time against the Cyclones and while I certainly respect Iowa State, did they use up all their magic in the feverish run through the Big 12 tourney? The fact is the Cyclones entered the tournament having lost 6 of their 8 prior games. I feel we're getting great line value here with the sizable points being offered to Ohio State. Iowa State is on an 0-4 ATS run in games with a posted total between 132 and 142 points. The Buckeyes physical style could take the Cyclones out of their game and Iowa State certainly is not known for their defense either so if their shots aren't falling on the other end they're in trouble here! We're getting line value here with Ohio State because they have an ugly ATS record on the season including a poor late season run at the betting window. Take advantage of the value with a team that is built well for some tournament upsets! 10* OHIO STATE

Early ATS Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:35 ET - The Cavaliers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games and that included knocking off the Raptors and the Bucks! Now they host a Clippers team playing the first game of an eastern road swing. These road trips tend to be tough on west coast teams. Even if the Clippers find a way to notch a road win here I expect it to come by the slimmest of margins. Certainly with the Cavaliers confidence growing with each late season win they are playing their best basketball of the season and have a chance at the outright upset here. Kevin Love has been cleared to play and that was a key for me in backing the Cavs here. The Clippers are off a win and cover but, prior to that big home win versus the Pacers, the Clips had failed to cover 3 straight games. The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. Los Angeles is 12-21 ATS when the Clippers enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. 10* CLEVELAND

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #825 Friday 8* Oregon Ducks (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 4:30 ET - This is another 12 through 5 match-up where even the odds makers are telling you an upset would not be a surprise. Yesterday we saw Murray State upset Marquette and New Mexico State very nearly upset Auburn. The Aggies 1 point loss to the Tigers easily got them the cover. Look for another ATS win here for a #12 seed and I expect another Wisconsin team to go down just like the Golden Eagles did against the Racers yesterday. Just a few days ago the Ducks were a 1.5 point favorite in this match-up and now they are a 2-point dog. As I so often do, I am going against the line move here and taking advantage of the value on the other side. The Badgers are led by front court star Ethan Happ but there are two issues with that in this match-up. First off, Oregon starts a point guard an then 4 guys all with height and this includes plenty of length and athleticism. They will be able to frustrate Happ to a degree. The other issue with the big man is he can't hit free throws as he is below 50% from the charity stripe. I respect the Badgers and their coach and their solid defense. But the Ducks, led by coach Dana Altman, also certainly deserve a ton of respect here and they are the much hotter team and, in my opinion, also match-up very well in what is expected to be a defensive-minded low-scoring battle. The Ducks are hot at the right time as they've won 8 straight both SU and ATS! The Badgers are a long-term 5-14 ATS in neutral court games where their line ranges from pick to a -3 and that includes 0-3 SU and ATS in recent seasons. Ride the hot Ducks! 8* OREGON

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #828 Friday 8* Kansas State Wildcats (-) vs Cal-Irvine Anteaters @ 2 ET - This line was as high as a 5.5 and is now as low as a 4 as of game day morning. I am happy to lay this number with the much superior and more battle-tested team. As you would expect, Kansas State has played a much tougher schedule than Cal-Irvine has. Also, the Catamounts come of out of the Big West and certainly won't surprise the Wildcats as they just saw them last season in November. The Cats demolished the Anteaters by a margin of 22 points. Most importantly was how consistent Kansas State was in the victory. They led at half by 13 and then won the second half by 9 points too. UC-Irvine is a popular choice for an upset here because they have a great record this season and enter the tourney on a huge long-term SU winning streak. However, those backing the Anteaters on the merits of those two factors are overlooking the difference in level of competition these two programs face. The numbers support that importance too as Cal-Irvine is a long-term 0-7 SU and 1-5 ATS in games against Big 12 opponents! UC Irvine is known for their defense but Kansas State can certainly play some D as well! Note that the Anteaters are just 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've faced a team allowing 64 points or less per game. As for the Wildcats, they are 3-1 ATS when facing a team that is allowing 64 points or less per game. Also, the Cats are 10-4 ATS L14 games against teams with a winning record while Cal-Irvine went a modest 6-6 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. 8* KANSAS STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #805 Friday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 12:15 ET - The Hawkeyes enter the Big Dance having lost 5 of their last 6 games SU and also on a 1-9 ATS run. However, the NCAA Tournament can be a "season" in and of its own and is like a fresh start. Post-season tournaments are also known not to go well under Mick Cronin at Cincinnati. I give Iowa a big coaching edge with Fran McCaffery and, keep in mind, he missed a couple of those late season Hawkeyes losses due to a suspension. The Bearcats finally got past Houston in the AAC Tournament and I won't be surprised if they now fall flat after that highly coveted win over the Cougars. Yes, this game is being played "close to home" for Cincinnati but the line opened up at a 3 with good reason and now that is moving to as high as a 5 in some spots, it is "go time" with the underdog Hawkeyes. The Bearcats are on a 4-11 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Iowa went 7-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 5.5 points or less and all 7 wins were outright upsets. I expect another upset win here but am grabbing the points with the Hawkeyes for "insurance" in this one should they fall just short. 8* IOWA