50* (NBA) - TNT Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 215) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 215 between the Pacers and Warriors in the night cap of Thursday's TNT double-header. I just the market is low right now on this Golden State offense. The Warriors haven't exactly been lighting it up, as they have eclipsed 108 points just once in their 8 games and failed to even reach 100 in 5 of those games. 

It's not so much execution as it is they just haven't shot well. Golden State has shot worse than 43% from the field in 7 of their last 8. Some of that likely has to do with them playing 6 of their last 8 on the road. 

They only finished with 102 in their last game at home against Detroit, but they had 66 in the 1st half (scored 17 in the 3rd and 19 in the 4th). A lot of that is the game was over at the at half (GS led 66-38). 

I think the offense could be in store for a big game here against a injury plagued and tired Pacers team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days on no rest after a thrilling 111-104 comeback win against the Lakers. 

Note that Malcolm Brogdon has been on a minute restriction coming back from an achilles injury, so it's no guarantee he plays on the second of a back-to-back. Big man Domantas Sabonis injured his ankle. He finished the game, but head coach Rick Carlisle said it was "probably going to be significant." I just don't see a lot of defense being played for a Pacers team that hasn't been great on that side of the ball anyway. Give me the OVER 215

50* (NBA) - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH (Cavs -6) 

I love the Cavs as a mere 6-point road favorite against the Blazers. This is just too good a price to pass up with Cleveland. I know laying 6 on the road is a lot, but not when the team you are playing is down their top two players. Portland won't have Lillard or McCollum. They also figure to be down another starter in Larry Nance Jr. 

This is also a great buy low spot for the Cavs, who have lost 4 of their last 5 and are 0-5 ATS during this stretch. Most of these games came with Cleveland playing shorthanded. They got some guys back in their last game, but just came up short against a red-hot Ja Morant led Grizzlies team. With a big showdown against the Warriors in Golden State on Sunday, I think the Cavs will be eager to get a win and have some momentum going into that game. I just don't see Portland having enough fire-power offensively to keep this close. Give me Cleveland -6! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Rockets +9.5) 

I love the Rockets as a 9.5-point dog against the Pacers tonight. Indiana has no business laying close to double-digits. This team has no lived up to the hype and are just 13-19 to start the season. 

Indiana's Malcolm Brogdon, who I think is their best player, is listed as questionable. However, I don't think the's playing. He's got an Achilles injury that's bothering him. He played just 8 mins in their last game before it flared up. Not saying they don't need him to beat the Rockets, but it's definitely easier to rest him against a lesser team. I also think having two days off after this game makes it more likely they won't rush him back. 

I also think this line has been adjusted too much because the Rockets are on no rest. They didn't have to use a ton of energy in a 20-point loss to the Bucks. Houston also gets back No. 2 overall pick Jalen Green from injury. I like the Rockets to keep this close and maybe even win outright. Give me Houston +9.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Pacers -2.5) 

Indiana is one of the few teams in the NBA that haven't been hit hard with Covid, outside of T.J. Warren, who has yet to play this year, Indiana is at full strength. While it's not Covid that has depleted Miami's roster, the Heat have been hit hard with injuries. Miami we know will be without Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, P.J. Tucker, Markieff Morris and Caleb Martin. Tyler Herro is also questionable. 

I also like how the Pacers come into this game. Indiana is 4-2 in their last 6 games with their only two losses coming by 2 at home to the Warriors and by 15 on the road to the Bucks, where they let Milwaukee go on a 21-0 run in the 4th quarter. Give me the Pacers -2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225) 

I love the OVER 225 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Kings and Wizards. These are two teams that are really struggling to get stops right now and I don't see that changing tonight. 

Washington has allowed 113 or more in each of their last 4 games and teams are shooting 48.6% from the field against them over their last 5. 

It's not any better for Sacramento, who has allowed 117 or more in 4 straight and 115 or more in 9 of their last 10. They have allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better in 3 of their last 4 and 47 or better in 9 of their last 10. Give me the OVER 225! 

50* (NBA) - Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Celtics PK) 

I love the Celtics at a pick at home against the Bucks tonight. The betting public is going to be all over Milwaukee with how well the Bucks have been playing. Milwaukee has won 12 of their last 14. They have gone 7-3-1 ATS over their last 11 and are off a blowout win and cover against the Knicks last time out. 

The key here is the spot. The Bucks win over New York came on Sunday and now have to go to Boston on no rest. It's also their 3rd road game in 4 nights. 

On the flip side, this Boston team is undervalued coming into this game off 3 straight losses. Reason to believe the Celtics will be better here coming off 2 days of rest and are expected to get back a big piece to their offense in Jaylen Brown. Give me the Celtics PK! 

50* (NBA) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Rockets +8)

I love the Rockets catching 8 at home against the Bucks on Friday. I just think this is a tough spot for Milwaukee. Even with Houston coming into this game on a 7-game win streak, it's going to be hard for the Bucks to get up for this game. I think even more so with a game against the Knicks on deck at Madison Square Garden (Sunday). 

On the flip side of this, I think you got to ride out the hot streak with the Rockets until they give us a reason not to, especially if they keep getting priced like they are one of the worst teams in the league. They just beat the Nets 114-104 as a 3.5-point home dog in their last game. 

Milwaukee is just 3-7 ATS last 10 games vs a team that's got a winning percentage under 40%. Rockets have covered 5 in a row as a dog and are 4-0 last 4 at home when catching points. Give me Houston +8! 

50* (NBA) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Nuggets +4.5) 

I like the value we are getting with the Nuggets as  4.5-point road dog against the Bulls tonight. This is a bad spot for Chicago coming off that big win at Brooklyn, where they outscored the Nets 32-25 in the 4th to win 111-107. 

Not only is this a big flat spot for the Bulls, they won't have one of their top bench players in Alex Caruso. He can really be the spark that gets this team through these bad scheduling spots. 

I also think it's a good time to buy low on Denver. Nuggets are just 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games, but have won 2 of 3 on their current 7-game road trip. Both times winning outright as dogs at Miami and most recently at the Knicks 113-99 as a 2.5-point dog. Give me Denver +4.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Knicks +6.5) 

I'll take the 6.5 with the Knicks against the Nets. I just think the number is a little high. Brooklyn being such a public team plays a part. So does the fact that the Knicks are just 4-5 over their last 9 and the news with this team is centered around how Kemba Walker is all but done in the Big Apple. 

Thibs benched Walker in place of Alec Burks in their last game and they went on the road and beat the Hawks 97-90. Keep in mind Atlanta was arguably playing their best ball coming in, as they had won 7 straight. They also hadn't scored fewer than 110 in any game during that stretch. 

I don't know about taking him out of the rotation completely, unless they feel pretty good about trading him and they might, but I do think it makes the Knicks better in the short-term. Walker only averaging 11.7 ppg and 3.1 apg. Burks is also a big upgrade defensively and I think we saw that against the Hawks. 

The Nets are a good team, but they just seem to come up short in the big games against the better teams in this league. We just saw it in their last game at home against the Suns. Not saying they won't win, but I think this a game the entire way. Give me the Knicks +6.5! 

50* (NBA) - Bounce Back PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bulls -8.5) 

I love the Bulls to go on the road and easily cover the 8.5-point spread against an awful Rockets team. I think the biggest thing you got to make sure of when playing against Houston is that the team you are backing is motivated to play well, because this is definitely a team that is so bad that it can be really easy for teams to overlook. 

I'm confident the Bulls will be motivated, as Chicago is coming off easily their worst performance of the season in Monday's 77-109 loss at home to the Pacers. It was simply a massive letdown spot for the Bulls. Chicago had just played a 5-game west coast trip and in their first game back had a big revenge game against the Knicks. Not a surprise they didn't have it against Indiana in the second leg of a back-to-back. 

Houston hasn't won a game since beating OKC back on Oct. 22nd and are losing on average by 11.2 ppg. Give me the Bulls -8.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Wizards -3.5) 

I love the Wizards as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Hornets. Washington is going to come into this game feeling really good about themselves after they pulled out a 103-100 win at home over the Heat in a game they trailed by 16 in the 3rd quarter and by 10 with just 4:42 left to play. 

I also think any kind of letdown from that big come from behind win is negated by the fact that Washington had a day off on Sunday to recoup and there being no travel between games. 

It's a much different story for the Hornets, who just had their 5-game SU and ATS win streak snapped in a 105-115 loss at Atlanta on Saturday. While Charlotte also had Sunday off, they had to travel from Atlanta to Washington and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

You also have to look at how well the Wizards have played at home. Washington is 7-1 SU and 7-1 ATS at Capital One Arena this season. Hornets are just 13-24 ATS last two seasons as a road dog, where they are losing by an average of 8.6 ppg. Give me the Wizards -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -3.5) 

I really like the price and the spot for the Kings, who are just 3.5-point home favorites against a struggling Raptors team. Sacramento is coming off a very disappointing 1-3 road trip against the Spurs, Thunder, Pistons and T-Wolves. 

Veteran big man Tristan Thompson voiced his frustration with the lack of intensity his team showed in this trip and I just think we are going to see an inspired effort from the Kings here at home. I know Sacramento is just 2-4 at home, but 3 of the 4 losses have come against 3 of the best teams in the West in the Warriors, Jazz and Suns and all 3 of those were by 8 or fewer. 

Toronto has not been playing well for a couple weeks now. The Raptors are 1-6 SU and 1-6 ATS over their last 7 games. They are shooting the ball poorly and not playing together on defense. They have allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and one of those teams was the Pistons. I just don't see them snapping out of this in what will be their 3rd road game on a west coast trip, especially in the 2nd of a back-to-back after a game last night in Utah. Give me the Kings -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies +1.5) 

I really like Memphis as a small home dog against the Clippers tonight. Memphis has finally gotten healthy with the return of Dillon Brooks. He's that second scoring option this team has been lacking behind Morant. In the 3 games (2 starts) Brooks has made, he's averaged 19.7 ppg. With the Grizzlies coming into this game on a full two days of rest with no travel between games, I really like them to play well. 

On the flip side of this, I think this is a great sell high spot with Los Angeles. The Clippers come into this game having gone 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS over their last 8 games. Thing is, LA has played their last 6 at home and the only two on the road during this stretch were against a bad Timberwolves team. Lot of people forget the Clippers were just 1-4 SU prior to this recent run. Give me the Grizzlies +1.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 221.5) 

I love the OVER 221.5 in tonight's big NBA game between the Nets and Warriors. I know the UNDERS have been cashing left and right to start the 2021-22 season, but I actually think it's playing into our favor with this number. 

These are two exceptional offensive teams. The Nets had their struggles early on offense, but that has changed here of late and a big reason for that is James Harden is finally starting to play up to his potential. As for the Warriors, they have been a force offensively, averaging 115.1 ppg. I think both teams could get into the 120's, but we really just need something like a 115-110 final to cash this easy. Give me the OVER 221.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -4)

We took the Kings as a slim 1-point dog at the Spurs on Wednesday and got absolutely burned with San Antonio cruising to a 136-117 win. Not only did Sacramento not play with the effort needed to win on the road, the Spurs shot lights out in that game. 

Watching that game, I had a pretty good feeling I was going to be right back on the Kings against the Thunder tonight and I was actually expecting to lay a couple more than we are being asked to. This is a Kings team I have made some decent money on early and I fully expect them to bounce back with a big effort and easy cover tonight. Give me Sacramento -4! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -3) 

I will lay the 3-points at home with the Clippers, as they host the Blazers in the second game of Tuesday's TNT double-header. I just don't get why this Portland team is getting so much respect on the road. The Blazers are 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS away from home this season and are getting outscored on average 115.2 to 101.5 on the road. 

The Clippers got off to an ugly start, but seem to have figured it out. LA has won 4 straight to move to 5-4 (first time this year over .500). While we know this team will take it to another level once Kawhi comes back from injury, they are the more than good enough to cover this short number at home against a Blazers team that is not getting the production they need out of their star player in Damian Lillard. After ranking 3rd in the league last year at 28.8 ppg, Lillard is 35th at a mere 18.5 ppg. Give me the Clippers -3! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -1) 

I really like the Bulls as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is a massive public team with Durant and Harden, but while they are 7-3 SU they are just 5-5 ATS. They come in having won 5 straight, but those wins have come against the Pacers, Pistons (twice), Hawks and Raptors with 3 of the 5 at home. 

The other big thing here is rest. Brooklyn will be on no rest after yesterday's game at Toronto. While Brooklyn won the game relatively comfortably 116-103, they weren't able to spread out the minutes like you would like in the first of a back-to-back. They have 4 of their 5 starters log 32+ minutes. This is also the Nets 3rd road game in 4 nights. 

Bulls are on just 1 day of rest, but this will be just their second game in the last 5 days and they have had zero travel during this time. Chicago should come out here extremely motivated, not just to make a statement against one of the better teams, but to snap their 2-game skid (coming off two close losses in a home-and-home vs the 76ers). Give me the Bulls -1! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -1.5) 

I love the Kings as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Hornets on Friday. I think this Sacramento team is flying way under the radar right now. Kings are just 4-4, but those 4 losses have come against the Warriors and Jazz at home and the Mavs and Jazz on the road. They have covered 4 of their last 5 including a 112-99 win over New Orleans last time out as a mere 5-point favorite. 

Charlotte is a team that gets a lot of love because they can score a lot of points, but I'm not a big believer in this team and I certainly don't like the spot for the Hornets. Charlotte just started a 5-game road trip across the country on Wednesday at Golden State and after this game they go to LA for back-to-back games at the Staples Center vs the Clippers and Lakers on Sunday/Monday. 

Charlotte also comes in not shooting the ball well. They have shot 41% or worse from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Give me the Kings -1.5! 

50* (NBA) - Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -1.5) 

I will gladly lay a mere 1.5-points on the road with Utah against an underwhelming Hawks team. Atlanta got off to a decent start, going 3-1 in their first 4 games, but two of those wins were against the Pistons and Hornets. The other was against a Mavs team that has also not looked good early on. Since that start they have lost 3 of 4, including a 108-117 setback last night at Brooklyn. 

I just think even with the slow start, Atlanta is a team that is still being a bit overvalued based on last year's deep playoff run that saw them get to the Eastern Conference Finals. 

On the flip side, I've liked what I've seen out of Utah to start the season. I did play against them as a 9-point favorite at home against the Kings last time out, but that was more of how underrated I think Sacramento is right now. I just don't think 1.5 is near enough for Atlanta. 

Utah's only loss on the season is a 99-107 loss at Chicago, which was a bit of a flat spot, being it was the first of a back-to-back with the defending champs on deck. Give me the Jazz -1.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nuggets +1)

I love the Nuggets at basically a pick'em on the road against the Grizzlies. These two teams just played on Monday in Memphis, creating a true revenge spot with the same opponent in the same venue. Memphis won that game 106-97 in a great buy low spot on the Grizzlies after an ugly 103-129 home loss to the Heat. It was also a bad spot for Denver, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and second straight on the road. 

Denver should be a bit refreshed being able to stay in Memphis over their off day on Tuesday. They should also be highly motivated to beat a team they just lost to, especially with how they played offensively, scoring just 97 points. 

Hard to see this Memphis defense holding the Nuggets offense in check in back-to-back games. Defense is not a strength of this team. The Grizzlies are giving up 114.1 ppg, allowing 47.6% shooting and are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. Give me the Nuggets +1! 

50* (NBA) - Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs +2) 

I really like Dallas as a slim 2-point road dog against the Nuggets on Friday. The big question mark here for a lot of people looking at this game is the health of Nikola Jokic for Denver. He's listed as questionable after suffering a knee injury in their last game vs the Jazz. He only played 15 minutes before getting hurt and did not return. There was no structural damage, which is why he's questionable, but he didn't practice Thursday and it would seem foolish for the Nuggets to put him out there for this game. 

I know the Nuggets didn't fold against a good Utah team after Jokic went down (lost 110-122), but I just don't think they got the talent to really be a good team without him on the floor, especially with Jamal Murray still sidelined. 

Mavs have won 3 straight since that ugly showing in their opener, where they lost 87-113 at Atlanta. Even if Porzingis doesn't play, I still think Dallas has the two best players in this game with Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson. Wouldn't be shocked if this line doesn't flip after it's official that Jokic is out. Give me the Mavs +2! 

50* (NBA) - Knicks/Bulls MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -1) 

I love the Bulls at basically a pick'em at home against the Knicks. We knew Chicago was going to be an improved team with the moves they made in the offseason to bring in the likes of Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso to pair with the likes of Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. 

Despite not playing anywhere close to their potential offensively, the Bulls have managed to start out the season 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. A big reason for that is their defense. Chicago is 2nd in the league behind only the Heat in team defensive efficiency. They are giving up just 97.5 ppg, while holding teams to 43.7% shooting from the field and 33.0% from behind the 3-point line. They are also only giving up an average of 16 free throws a game, so teams are having to work for everything they get. 

Now they have faced a pretty favorable schedule. Their 4 wins have come against the Pistons (2x), Pelicans and Raptors.

With that said, I see them extremely motivated here to show they are for real against a good Knicks team and there's no love between the Chicago and New York fan base. The energy inside the United Center tonight I believe is going to feel a lot like a playoff game. I think the books were right when they opened this game at Chicago -3. Give me the Bulls -1!  

50* (NBA) - Wednesday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings +8) 

I love the value we are getting with the Kings as a 8-point road dog against the Suns. I just think Phoenix is being way overvalued by the books to start the season, which all stems from last year's run to the NBA Finals. They are just 1-2 to start the year with a 12-point home loss to the Nuggets as a 6-point favorite and a 29-point loss as a 2.5-point dog at Portland. They did beat the Lakers 115-105 on the road, but LA has not looked great early on as they try to figure out how to make it all work with Westbrook. 

Kings are also 1-2, which might not seem great, but most probably had them 0-3 to start the year. Sacramento had to go on the road to play the Blazers in their opener before hosting the Jazz and Warriors. They beat Portland and while they lost to Utah and Golden State, they were competitive in both games. I just think this is a much closer matchup than the number would suggest. I think we see that in the fact that the Kings rate higher in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Give me the Kings +8! 

50* (NBA) - 76ers/Knicks Atlantic Division PLAY OF THE MONTH (Knicks -1.5) 

I love the value we are getting with the Knicks as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the 76ers. This to me feels like what the line should be if Philly was at full strength with Ben Simmons on the floor. 

I know that the 76ers are 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS to start the season without Simmons, but their two wins have come against the Pelicans and Thunder, who are a combined 1-6. The only legit team they played is the Nets and they lost at home 109-114. 

The Knicks are a team that I think are flying a little bit under the radar. No one seems to want to give Thibs and this team much respect for what they did a year ago, where they finished with the 4th best record in the east at 41-31. 

Knicks opened the season with that crazy 138-134 2OT win at home against Boston. A game they should have won in regulation if not for a minor collapse in the last few minutes. They went out 2 days later and crushed the Magic 121-9, covering as a 8-point favorite. They did lose outright as a 12-point favorite at home to Orlando in their next game, but that was the definition of a flat spot for New York. 

I just think with Julius Randle playing like he did last year and the two big additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier, the Knicks are an even stronger team this season. Give me the Knicks -1.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Wizards +7) 

I love the value we are getting with Washington as a 7-point dog against the Nets. I've been on Washington in each of their first two games. They came thru in their opener and had a brutal beat in the second game...they were -2.5, led by 10 going to the 4th quarter, were up 4 in OT and Pacers hit a 3 a the buzzer to lose by 1. 

Keep in mind they played that game against Indiana without their best player in Bradley Beal. It just goes to speak to the depth this Wizards team has added. Dinwiddie, who they added from Brooklyn, had a team-high 34 and Kuzma put in 26. 

The Nets just haven't looked like the team we thought. They got blitzed in the opener at Milwaukee, were a bit lucky to beat the 76ers on the road and lost 95-111 at home to the Hornets yesterday. A game they led 58-50 at the half. Durant is playing great, but he's getting no help. James Harden has not played up to par, as he's only averaging 18.3 ppg on 38.8% shooting. Give me the Wizards +7! 

50* (NBA) Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -1) 

I was dead wrong with Brooklyn in Tuesday's season opener at Milwaukee. I thought the Bucks would come out fat and happy and instead they played like they were the team with something to prove. Unfortunately these great situation spots can't come through every time. 

The Nets didn't help matters by not playing up to their potential. They got outscored 37-25 in the 1st quarter and 30-19 in the 4th quarter. I know they are without Kyrie, but the duo of Harden and Durant is still lethal. I just don't see this team starting the season 0-2. 

The 76ers are an interesting team, as they have all that off the court drama going on with Ben Simmons. Philly is still a playoff team without Simmons if Embiid is healthy, but not a team you think can do much in the postseason. They won their season opener 117-97 against a Pelicans team that was without Zion. 

That was the good news for the 76ers. One game into the season and Joel Embiid is already showing up on the injury report with a sore knee. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he doesn't play in this game. Philly hasn't hesitated in years past resting him when he's not at full strength and it would makes sense to do it this early in the year. 

With or without Embiid on the floor in this game, I will go down swinging with Brooklyn at this price. Give me the Nets -1! 

50* (NBA) Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -2.5) 

I love the value here with the Hawks as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Mavericks. I'm a little shocked Atlanta isn't getting a little more love here. This is a team that appeared to take a huge step forward last season, as they made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. 

That should have only lit a fire under this Hawks team to work that much harder to take that elusive next step and get to a NBA Finals. Regardless if they got a real shot at that or not, they believe they do. So much so that they brought basically everyone back from that team. 

You could same the same thing about the Mavs bringing a lot of their guys back, but there is a big difference with this Dallas team. Head coach Rick Carlisle decided to not come back (now with the Pacers) and they replaced him with Jason Kidd. I loved Kidd as a player, but he's been a failure at this head coaching thing. I know it might not seem like a NBA coach does a lot, but I think losing Carlisle is a big deal for this young team. Give me the Hawks -2.5 at home! 

50* (NBA) - Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets -2) 

I absolutely love the Hornets as a mere 2-point home favorite in Wednesday's season opener at home against the Pacers. I know a lot of people are questioning Charlotte having a 38.5 game win total after only winning 33 games a year ago (keep in mind they did play 10 fewer games).

I definitely don't think there will be many running to place a bet on the OVER 38.5. That tells me the books see a lot in this team and are more than happy to take your UNDER bet. I'll side with the wiseguys that this Charlotte team is going to be improved. 

The do got a pretty good starting 5 with LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridgers and Mason Plumlee/P.J. Washington. Ball had a sensational rookie year, averaging 15.7 ppg, 6.1 apg and 5.9 rpg. He only played in 51 games and started just 31, which might be a big part of the books stake on this team. If he takes another step in year two, this team will be in the playoff mix. 

The Pacers are a team that I got my concerns with. Indiana was just as bad as Charlotte last year. They went 34-38. While there starting five of Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, they will be down two of them. LeVert and Warren are both ruled out for this game. They could also be without one of their top reserves in Jeremy Lamb. 

I just think Indiana is getting way too much respect given the injuries they are dealing with to start the season. Give me the Hornets -2! 

50* (NBA) - Opening Night PLAY OF THE YEAR (Nets +1) 

I love Brooklyn at basically a pick'em tonight, as they go on the road to take on the defending champs to open their season. This is more of a party for the Bucks, as tonight is all about the ring ceremony for them. For Brooklyn, it's the first step to redemption. If this team had been healthy last year, I'm confident they would have been the team getting their championship rings on opening night. 

Add in the fact they get to play the team that knocked them out of the playoffs and went on to win it all, I see the Nets out to make a statement. 

Some might see the drama with Kyrie Irving not playing because he won't get vaccinated as a big blow to this team. There's no denying that Irving is a special talent on the court, but he's a headcase off of it. I don't think not having him around is as going to hurt them as much as most think. 

They got a more than capable point guard to replace Irving in James Harden, a guy I think was out of shape last year. I think we are going to see Harden back to his MVP form and he's playing alongside arguably the best player in the game in Kevin Durant. 

This is also a deeper team than the one that ended last season. They brought in Patty Mills to be their backup point guard, so the depth there is solid. They also signed veteran Paul Milsap and got LaMarcus Aldridge to come out of retirement, giving them a solid 1-2 punch down low. I also think their 1st round pick in Cam Thomas is a guy who could carve out a role. 

Milwaukee's got pretty much the same team, outside of the addition of SG Grayson Allen. They also aren't at full strength with starting SG Donte DiVincenzo and backup big man Bobby Portis both out. Give me the Nets +1!

50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks Game 6 MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 222.5) 

As much as I wanted to go take the points with Phoenix here, the Suns have burnt me the last two games of this series. I also think the much stronger play in this one is the OVER. While these two teams combined for 242 in Game 5, Milwaukee had one of the greatest team shooting games in NBA Finals history. They couldn't miss in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Phoenix was also on fire, as they shot 55.2% from the field. 

Look for the shooting to cool off in the first elimination game of the series. Phoenix must win to force a Game 7, so we know they are going to give everything they got defensively. While Milwaukee is up, this game is huge for them too. They don't want this to go to a Game 7. Give me the UNDER 222.5! 

50* (NBA) Bucks/Suns Game 5 MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -3.5) 

We took a tough loss with the Suns +5 in Game 4, as they wound up losing by 6 after leading by as many as 9 in the 4th quarter. It was a bit of a meltdown for Phoenix once Devin Booker picked up his 5th foul early in the 4th, as Booker had been dominating up to that point. 

Phoenix really should have won that game getting next to nothing out of veteran point guard Chris Paul. I just think that with the series shifting back to Phoenix, the Suns are going to not only get more out of their role players, but also I see Paul and Booker both playing well. Give me the Suns -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns +5)

I will gladly take my chances with Phoenix as a 5-point dog in Game 4. I was not surprised at all at what happened in Game 3. The Bucks were in full on desperation mode to avoid going down 3-0 and were getting a big boost with the series shifting to Milwaukee. 

Look for the Suns to bounce back in a big way. Neither Paul or Booker played well in Game 3. I see both of them playing better. I also think we see a lot more energy defensively from Phoenix. I also think that there's a good chance if Milwaukee does manage to win this game, the Suns will be able to keep it within the number. Give me Phoenix +5! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Bucks -4) 

I was on the Suns in both Game 1 and Game 2. I also like Phoenix to win this series. With that said, I love this spot and price with the Bucks in Game 3, as the series shifts to Milwaukee. I know the final scores look like Phoenix dominated, but Milwaukee put a much better fight than the scores would indicate. 

Not only are the Bucks going to get a big boost playing at home (mainly the role players), we are going to see Milwaukee treat this like a Game 7. They have to win this game to have any shot. It's just hard for the Suns to treat it in the same way up 2-0. I think Milwaukee wins here and the Suns take the next two to close it out in Phoenix in Game 5. Give me the Bucks -4!

50* (NBA) - Bucks/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -5.5) 

I cashed Phoenix in Game 1 and will fire right back with the Suns at -5.5 in Game 2. Even though the Bucks lost Game 1 by 13-points, there's a lot of talk about how competitive Milwaukee was in defeat. 

I look at it a little different. The Bucks lost by 13 despite the two teams basically shooting the same from the field (Suns 46.6% and Bucks 45.5%) and Milwaukee going +5 (16 to 11) on made 3-pointers. 

Giannis was able to play Game 1 and was effective with 20 points and 17 rebounds, but he only attempted 11 shots, while Middleton took 26 and both Holiday and Lopez attempting 14. That tells me Giannis is not 100%. I also wonder how that knee is going to respond to those 35 mins he played just two days ago. Give me the Suns -5.5! 

50* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -2.5) 

I really like Atlanta at -2.5 at home in Game 6 on Saturday. I think we have seen how much more home court matters when the star players aren't on the court in the last two games. Atlanta won Game 4 at home 110-88 in their first game without Trae Young. Milwaukee won Game 5 at home 123-112 in their first game without Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

Antetokounmpo has been downgraded to doubtful and Trae Young is questionable. Some thought there was a chance Young was going to come back for Game 2. With Atlanta facing elimination, you have to think Young will be out there at all costs. 

Even if he doesn't play (I think he will), I see this game playing out similarly to Game 4. Maybe not quite as big a blowout, but a comfortable home win to set up Game 7 on Sunday. Give me the Hawks -2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +2)

I'm going to take Atlanta as a small dog in Game 5 on the road. After watching the Hawks dominate Game 4 at home without Trae Young, some might be thinking Milwaukee can do the same without Giannis in this one. I just don't think that will be the case. 

Atlanta had no answer for Antetokounmpo. If he got to his spot, there was little to nothing they could do to stop him. If they doubled him, it would just result in an open shot for another player. I just think Milwaukee is in a lot of trouble without their former MVP to lead the way. 

Young is going to be a game-time decision for the Hawks. If he plays, it's a plus, but I don't think Atlanta needs him to win this game. Give me the Hawks +2! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns +1) 

I'm going big on the Suns in Game 6 as they go to LA looking to close out the series. I did not see Game 5 going as it did. I expected a little more urgency out of Phoenix, but that just wasn't the case.

There's also not a lot you can do when the Clippers not only get a monster game out of Paul George, but also huge showings from guys like Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris and DeMarcus Cousins. All 4 of those guys were lights out from the field, as they combined to shoot 63%. 

Replicating that kind of production is very unlikely. We should also see a big uptick in the energy level for the Suns. Give me Phoenix +1! 

50* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Suns as a 5-point home favorite in Game 5 on Monday. Phoenix was able to win Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead. They did so with Paul and Booker having another off night shooting. Paul was 11 for 41 (26.8%) from the field in the 2 games at LA, while Booker was just as bad at 13 for 43 (30.2%). 

Phoenix as a team shot 38.9% from the field in Game 3 and 36.0% in Game 4. That's after they shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50.0% in Game 2 at home. I know the Clippers have made some adjustments, but I think a lot of the poor shooting is just the difference of home/away. 

Keep in mind this is a Suns team that is shooting 48.8% from the field for the season. If they can just get in the mid 40's they are going to run away with this thing. Give me Phoenix -5! 

50* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +5) 

I love the value here with Atlanta as a 5-point home dog in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. If you look at the Game 2 line, which was Bucks -8 at home, this line should be closer to 2.5-3 at Atlanta when you factor in the home court edge. The line we are seeing is more like if they were playing on a neutral court. 

It's just a big overreaction to Milwaukee's blowout win in Game 2. What people overlook with that result, is that was a clear letdown spot for Atlanta who had just stole Game 1. Not only that game, but they had just played that Game 7 against the 76ers two days prior to Game 1. 

Milwaukee was simply the more motivated team in Game 2. I also think having Scott Foster referee that game, was a big advantage for the Bucks, as he lets a lot more go, which doesn't favor the smaller Young. Look for Young to not only get a few more calls and get back to that guy that dominated Game 1 with 48 points. He also should get plenty of help from the role players playing at home. Give me the Hawks +5! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1) 

I really like Phoenix to bounce back from a really poor showing in Game 3 to win Game 4 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. I know LA ended up running away with a 106-92 win in Game 3, but let's not forget that the Suns had the lead at the half in that one. 

When you look at how poorly Phoenix shot the ball, they were lucky it was as close as it was. Suns were just 35-90 (38.9%) from the field and shot a mere 31.3% from behind the 3-point line. Chris Paul was 5 of 19 (26.3%) from the field and Devin Booker was an even worse 5 of 21 (23.8%). 

I'm pretty confident Paul and Booker shoot considerably better in Game 3 and I just don't think LA will be able to keep pace without Kawhi Leonard. They may also be without a key piece in Marcus Morris. Give me the Suns -1! 

50* (NBA) Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 226) 

I think we are getting a really great price on the UNDER (226) in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Game 1 went over the total of 223.5 in the Hawks 116-113 win, it didn't get their by much. 

That was with some really big offensive performances by both teams. Trae Young had a game-high 48. He's getting all the praise and rightfully so, but John Collins had a monster game with 23 points and 15 boards. For the Bucks, they got 34 from Antetokoumpo and 33 from Holiday. 

We know we are going to get the best Milwaukee has to offer on the defensive side to avoid going down 0-2 before Game 3 in Atlanta. You also got to think that both teams will make some adjustments to slow the other team down. Give me the UNDER 226! 

50* (NBA) Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Suns at -1 in Game 3. I took the Clippers in both Game 1 and 2, just missing out on a cash in Game 1 and easily winning in Game 2. I just thought the Suns were being a bit overpriced with Chris Paul out. 

I don't know if it's cause the Clippers have been down 0-2 in each of their first two series and came back to make a series of it, but LA should be a be a bigger dog with Paul expected to return. Especially with Kawhi still out for the Clippers. 

You also can't overlook the way that Phoenix was able to steal Game 2. Not only Ayton's last second dunk for the win, but Paul George's two critical missed free throws right before that. Losing like that is brutal and can be really hard to bounce back from. 

Phoenix has also shown the want and the ability to finish off teams when they get up in a series. I'm confident there is zero overlooking this game for the Suns. Give me Phoenix -1! 

50* (NBA) - East Conference Finals PLAY OF THE MONTH (Hawks +8) 

I just feel like 8-points is way too much for Atlanta to be catching in Game 1 against the Bucks. Milwaukee should win the series, but there's no reason to think the Hawks aren't going to give them a run for their money. 

I think a lot of people credit Atlanta being in the Eastern Conference Finals more to the 76ers collapsing than giving them the props they deserve for how they are playing. Trae Young has been sensational. That's a tough 76ers team to score on with all their size and he wasn't deterred. 

I also think people are quick to forget just how fortunate the Bucks were in getting to this series. Injuries to Harden and Irving are the only reason Milwaukee is still playing. If they don't get hurt, Bucks probably get swept or lose in 5 and everyone is talking about how they need to blow it all up. 

Lastly, I just trust the Hawks a little more here to show up with the right mindset. Seeing how little respect they are getting with this huge line and hardly anyone picking them to win the series, they should have a chip on their shoulder. Milwaukee on the other hand just beat the team that everyone thought was going to win it all. Might be a little harder for them to bring that intensity. Give me the Hawks +8! 

50* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (+5.5) 

We took a bit of a tough beat on the Clippers +4 in Game 1, but I saw enough that I liked with LA to put up some big cash on them in Game 2 at +5.5. The Suns shot 55% from the field and got a triple-double from Devin Booker, who finished with 40 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists.

Yet it was a 2-point game with less than 25 seconds to play. That to me is a good sign for the Clippers being able to make the adjustments (something they have been great at in these playoffs) needed to not only cover, but even up the series 1-1 with a win. 

Booker may play well again in Game 2, but the chances of him replicating the box score from Game 1 is highly unlikely. 

Clippers got big games from George (34 points) and Jackson (24 points), but DeMarcus Cousins is the only other guy who finished in double-figures with 11. Mann, who had that monster Game 6 against Utah, only played 27 minutes because of foul trouble. He was 3 for 4, including 3 for 3 from 3. They have to do a better job of getting him more involved while he's playing like this. 

If Chris Paul was playing, this would be a different story. Give me the Clippers +5.5! 

50* (NBA) - Hawks/76ers Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +7) 

I've had a pretty good feel for this series, cashing the Hawks +6 in Game 5 and the 76ers -3 in Game 6. Given the number, I can't help myself but to go big on Atlanta +7 in Game 7. The home team has historically had the edge in Game 7, but not so much of late. Since 2016, the home team is just 8-7 SU in Game 7 and a miserable 4-11 ATS (2-10 L12). 

You also got to look at just how close these last 3 games have been at the end. Since the 76ers 16-point win in Game 3, the last 3 games have been decided by a combined 11 points with no single margin greater than 5. With that said, I not only think the Hawks can keep this close, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. 

While Philly was able to keep the series alive with a 104-99 win in Game 6, I think it says a lot that Atlanta was able to keep it close with no one stepping up to help Trae Young. He had 34 points and the next best was 17 from Huerter. Not to mention it wasn't anywhere close to Young's best, as he was just 13 of 30 from the field. Give me the Hawks +7! 

5* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -1.5)

I love the Nets as a slim -1.5 home favorite in Game 7 against the Bucks. The home team has historically owned Game 7 and I think that will be the case here. Milwaukee played really well at home in Game 6 to keep the series alive, but the Bucks don't figure to get the kind of production out of guys not named Antetokounmpo on the road. 

At the same time, you can expect more out of the role players for Brooklyn. I also think we could see Harden give a little more than he has, given this is a winner take all game. He was definitely more of a factor in his second game back and as long as he doesn't re-injure that hamstring, it's going to get better and better each day. 

More than anything, I'm betting on Kevin Durant to deliver the performance needed to get Brooklyn the win. We saw him put this team on his back in Game 5 and he's more than capable of shouldering the load. Give me the Nets -1.5! 

50* (NBA) - 76ers/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -3) 

I'll take my chances here with the 76ers as a slim 3-point road favorite in Game 6. All the talk right now is about how Philadelphia blew that 26-point lead in Game 5. While I definitely enjoyed having the Hawks +6, I'm not writing the 76ers off like others. 

Not enough credit is being given to Atlanta's shot making. The Hawks were 13 of 16 from the field in the 4h quarter and it's not like they were all easy looks at the basket. Yes the 76ers played poorly down the stretch, but I still like what I saw from this team for the majority of that game. 

One thing is for sure, if the 76ers get up big at any point in the rest of this series, they will not take their foot off the gas. I feel good about Philly not only winning this game, but winning it rather convincingly. Give me the 76ers -3! 

50* (NBA) Hawks/76ers MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +6.5) 

I'll take my chances with Atlanta as a 6.5-point road dog in Game 5. The series may be tied up at 2-2 and headed back to Philly, but the Hawks are the team with all the momentum. Atlanta outscored the 76ers 54-38 in the 2nd half of their 103-100 come from behind win in Game 4. 

While Trae Young had 25 points and 18 assists, he shot just 8 of 26 from the field and 3 for 11 from behind the 3-point line. I think it says a lot how he can impact a game that much even when he's not shooting great. Have to think Young will be a little more efficient in this one. 

The other huge thing here that I think should have this line lower, Joel Embiid is clearly not 100%. That torn meniscus in his knee is really starting to cause him problems. I just don't think that's something that's going to all the sudden feel better on just 1 day of rest. Keep in mind he had two days to recover from Game 3 to Game 4. Give me the Hawks +6.5! 

50* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets +4.5) 

No Kyrie. No Harden. How could the Nets possibly win this game without their two superstars? This is what everyone is thinking after Milwaukee's 107-96 win in Game 3 to even the series at 2-2. 

I believe we are seeing a big overreaction with this line. I just don't think the Bucks should be laying almost 5-points on the road. For as much as Milwaukee "dominated" Game 3, they only won by 11 with Brooklyn having an awful night offensively. Durant scored 28. The only other player was Irving with 11 and he played a total of 17 mins. 

I believe a lot of that is as simple as the impact being on the road has on the role players. I'm expecting a monster game from KD, but I also think Blake Griffin and Joe Harris will play big roles. I also think there will be an other guy step up and give them some scoring. 

At the same time, look for some regression from the Bucks role players on the road. You also got to think a few more calls go in Brooklyn's favor in front of the home crowd. Give me the Nets +4.5! 

50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -4.5) 

I will roll the dice with the Clippers as a 4.5-point home favorite in Game 4. This is just one of those series where you almost expect the home team to win every game. Utah won the first two game at home and LA responded with a 132-106 win in Game 3. 

As is the case for just about every team, the big difference between playing at home and on the road is the play of your role players. Utah got 30 from Mitchell, but no other player reached 20. They also lost Game 3 by 26, despite making 19 and shooting 43% from behind the 3-point line. 

That tells me the Clippers defense is making it hard for them inside and it's a dangerous thing to live and die by the 3-pointer on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if this wasn't another blowout win. Give me LA -4.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sunday MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -2) 

I love the Nets as a slim 2-point road favorite in Game 4 against the Bucks. While Milwaukee was able to avoid going down 3-0 with a 86-83 win in Game 3, there was a lot not to like with the Bucks in that victory. Milwaukee just doesn't have enough offense outside of their two stars Antetokounmpo and Middleton. 

The two combined for 68 points with each going for more than 30 in Game 3 and yet they still only managed 86 points. The same output they posted in their 125-86 loss in Game 3. I just think Antetokounmpo's inability to shoot from outside really hurts this team. There's also zero chance the Nets are scoring anywhere close to 83 points in this one. Durant and Irving are too good. I not only think Brooklyn wins, but I wouldn't be shocked if this was a blowout. Give me the Nets -2! 

50* (NBA) - Friday MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -1) 

I really like the value here with the 76ers at basically a pick'em on the road in Game 3. Since the Hawks led 74-54 at the half in Game 1, Philadelphia has outscored Atlanta 188-156 (+32). After that loss in Game 1, the 76ers really dominated from the start in Game 2. They held the Hawks to 20 points in the 1st quarter and 18 in the 4th quarter. 

Philadelphia is also going to be extremely motivated to get back the home court advantage. As far as Embiid, he's clearly not limited by his knee. Embiid had 40 points and 13 boards in Game 2. 

I like Trae Young and this Hawks team, but playing a team like the 76ers is where their inexperience in the playoffs could really hurt them. I just don't know if I'm with everyone else on how good this Atlanta team is. Seems to me they are getting a lot of love from eliminating a Knicks team that was destined to struggle in the postseason. Give me the 76ers -1! 

50* (NBA) - Thursday MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -3) 

We suffered a tough 1/2-point loss on the Jazz -3.5 in Game 1, but will not hesitate to take Utah at -3 in Game 2. The Jazz couldn't have started much worse in Game 1, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter and trailing by as many as 14 before winning 112-109. 

After getting a chance to make some adjustments at the half, Utah outscored the Clippers 32-19 in the 3rd quarter. They also won that game despite an off-night shooting. While they did make 17 3-pointers, they shot 50, which is only 34%. They also shot just 40% from the field overall. 

Let's also not forget how tough it is to play in Utah. The Jazz have a massive home-court edge, which is why I think they win here and wouldn't be surprised if LA came back and won the next two at home. Give me Utah -3! 

50* (NBA) - Tuesday MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with Utah as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Clippers. No one wants to believe in the Jazz and I think it creates value with them in this spot. With a spread of just 3.5, we basically just need Utah to win. They are 33-6 on their home floor this year. 

This is also a great fade spot for the Clippers coming off that Game 7 against the Mavs. Not only that they were facing elimination in the last two games in that series. It would make sense they come out flat in Game 1 on the road. Give me the Jazz -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 220.5) 

I'm going to take my chances with the UNDER 220.5 in Game 1 between the Nuggets/Suns. These two teams played 3 times in the regular-season. Suns won 106-103 in the first meeting, Denver won 130-126 in overtime and 120-112 in double-overtime the next two. 

So while it looks like 2 of the 3 were high scoring, the game that ended with 156 had 28 points scored after regulation (tied 114-114) and in the game that had 132 there were 36 scored in extra time (tied 98-98).  Denver has also lost two starters since the last time they played in Jamal Murray and Will Barton. 

I think there's value with this total due to the Nuggets coming off a high-scoring series against the Blazers. Phoenix and Portland are actually tied (4th) in offensive efficiency at 114.9. The big difference is defense. Suns are 9th in defensive efficiency at 108.8 and the Blazers are 29th at 113.4. Phoenix is also tied with Denver in pace at 26th, where Portland was tied for 16th in pace. Give me the UNDER 220.5! 

50* (NBA) - Hawks/76ers MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -2.5) 

I can't help myself but to go big on the 76ers in Game 1 of their series against the Hawks on Sunday. Regardless if Embiid plays (I'm assuming he won't), I'm confident Philadelphia will hold serve at home. 

The biggest thing for me is I just think the Hawks are getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers right now. A lot of that is the perception on this team after their convincing 4-1 series win over the Knicks in the first round. 

I said it from the start with New York. I did not think the Knicks were as good as people thought. There regular-season success just doesn't translate to the playoffs because everyone plays hard in the postseason. 

76ers got more than enough weapons without Embiid to dominate this game and if he plays they got no chance. Give me Philadelphia -2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets NBA Playoffs PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nets -3.5) 

I love Brooklyn -3.5 at home in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup with the Bucks. I not only think the Nets take a 1-0 series lead, I could easily see them winning this game by double-digits. 

Milwaukee is a good team, but I think they are a little overvalued coming off their sweep of the Heat. The Bucks definitely looked impressive, but you can't overlook how bad Miami shot the ball in that series. The Heat shot 39.5% from the field for the series. 

They also go from facing a team that's only superstar was Jimmy Butler, to facing a Nets team that has 3 of the best players in the game in Durant, Irving and Harden. 

Milwaukee did win 2 of 3 in the regular-season, taking the last two in the series at home. It took all they had to get those two wins and the Nets didn't have Harden. Brooklyn won at home without Irving. Give me the Nets -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 207.5) 

I like the UNDER 207.5 in Game 6 tonight between the Lakers and Suns. I'm torn on whether or not LA can win this game, but I am pretty confident that it will be low scoring. I think the Lakers are not only desperate facing elimination, but also embarrassed from that ugly loss in Game 5. The level of intensity they are going to have at home with their backs against the wall is going to be really high. 

At the same time, I don't think the Suns are feeling good about things. Sure they like that AD is hurt, but this thing can flip in a hurry if he comes back. Chris Paul knows to not like his team take this game lightly, just because they got a Game 7 at home if needed. I expect Phoenix to be just as motivated here to finish this thing off. I just don't think there's going to be enough pace and shot making to get this to the 210 range. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

50* (NBA) - Hawks/Knicks MAX UNIT Top Play (Knicks -1) 

I've had a lot of success in this series. I passed on Game 1 to just get a feel for the matchup. I won and covered with the Knicks -2 in Game 2 and then cashed on the Hawks -4 and -4.5 in Games 3 and 4. 

I will keep on firing in this series, as I absolutely love the value here with the Knicks -1 at home facing elimination down 3-1 in the series. I've said I think NY is a bit overvalued because their regular-season record is more off of effort than it is talent, that doesn't mean they aren't a good team. 

If they can just get their offense going, the energy at the Garden combined with the effort defensively, should keep the Hawks offense in check. Julius Randle by far had his best game of the series in Game 4. I think he breaks out with a huge game here, as I could see the Knicks blowing this thing wide open. Give me New York -1! 

50* (NBA) - Jazz/Grizzlies MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies +5.5) 

We took a tough loss on Memphis in Game 3 at basically the same price, as the Grizzlies lost by double-digits after leading in the final 5 minutes. Give Utah credit for how they closed out that game, but I think Memphis showed a lot fighting back to take that late lead after really not playing up to their potential for the majority of that game.

Also not a lot you can do with Utah making 19 3's on 44% shooting. Memphis only shot 43% from the field and 32% from deep. I think there's a good chance we see the Grizzlies shoot better in Game 4, while the Jazz regress a little bit. I like the Grizzlies to win this game, but I'll take the points for a little added insurance.  Give me Memphis +5.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sunday MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -7) 

I love the Nets to blowout the Celtics in Game 4. Boston played a near perfect game and got 50 from Jason Tatum and still almost lost Game 3 at home. I just don't see the Celtics doing what they did offensively in Game 4. 

Brooklyn got the wakeup call they needed in Game 3. They are going to be 100% locked in on both sides of the ball in this one. The Celtics simply don't have the talent to make a game of it. Look for the Nets to pull away and win this one by double-digits. Give me Brooklyn -7! 

50* (NBA) - Jazz/Grizzlies MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies +5) 

I will take a shot with the Grizzlies as a 5-point home dog against the Jazz in Game 3. Utah won Game 2 141-129 to even the series at 1-1. A lot of people will attribute the Jazz winning Game 2 to the return of Donovan Mitchell.

While Mitchell played great in his first game back from a long absence, it was just one of those nights for the entire Jazz team. Everything they threw at the rim was going in. Utah shot 54.4% from the field and were 19-39 (48.7%) from behind the 3-point line. 

What people overlook is that the Grizzlies also finished that game shooting 54.1% from the field. The only real difference in the game was 3-point shooting. Grizzlies made 11 fewer 3's going just 8-23 (34.8%) from deep. 

With the series shifting from Utah to Memphis, we should see the Jazz's 3-point shooting regress and for the Grizzlies to be a little better. I would not be surprised at all if Memphis won this game. Give me the Grizzlies +5! 

50* (NBA) - Knicks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -4)

I love the Hawks at -4 in Game 3 against the Knicks on Friday. I thought Atlanta played exceptionally well on the road in the first two games of this series. They were dangerously close to going up 2-0 and that was with New York in a must-win situation. 

I like Thibs, but I think his teams are overrated in the playoffs. The biggest reason they are so good in the regular-season, they play with playoff-like intensity every single game. You can win a lot of regular-season games on just effort. In the playoffs, everyone is playing at that level.

I loved them with their backs against the wall at home in Game 2, but I think the Knicks are going to struggle to keep this one close. Give me the Hawks -4! 

50* (NBA) - Thursday MAX UNIT Top Play (Blazers -3.5) 

I absolutely love the Blazers as a slim 3.5-point home favorite in Game 3 of their first round series with the Nuggets. Portland won Game 1 of the series 123-109, but as expected Denver came back with all they had and evened up the series with a 128-109 win in Game 2. 

I just don't think the Nuggets are going to be able to go on the road and keep it close against what I feel is a much deeper and talented Blazers team. Denver has had no answer for Damian Lillard, who is averaging 38 ppg and 11.5 apg in the series.

I look for Lillard to keep doing what he does, but we should also see an uptick in production from the role players in front of the home crowd. Opposite for Denver. Look for their role players to struggle a little more on the road. Give me the Blazers -3.5! 

50* (NBA) Hawks/Knicks MAX UNIT Top Play (Knicks -2) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Knicks as a slim 2-point home favorite in Game 2. Atlanta won Game 1 107-105, which means New York will be desperate to get this thing tied up 1-1 as they head to Atlanta for Game 3 on Sunday. 

All the talk from Game 1 is about how good Trae Young was for the Hawks. He was special. Young had 32 points with 10 assists and 7 rebounds. For Young to play that well and New York's star player Julius Randle to have only 15 points on 6-23 shooting, you would expect the Hawks to win by more. 

I just think the Knicks are poised to not only win Game 2, but win this one going away. Give me New York -2! 

50* (NBA) - Lakers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -2.5) 

I love the Suns as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against the Lakers in Game 1 of their series that starts on Sunday. I really expected more out of the Lakers in their play-in game against the Warriors. Yes they were able to win, but it was a struggle. LeBron hit the big shot at the end, but still only finished with 22 points on 7 of 17 shooting. The explosiveness just wasn't there. 

I also think there could be a bit of an emotional letdown for the Lakers. I know it wasn't do or die in their game against the Warriors, but that was a huge game for them. 

You also have to look at the Suns. Phoenix nearly passed the Jazz for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Like the Warriors, the Suns can get after you defensively. I also think they got a big edge here in guard play with Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Add in the home court and I just think the Suns will have no problem getting a win in Game 1. Give me Phoenix -2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Mavs/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -5) 

I love the Clippers as a mere 5-point home favorite against the Mavs in Game 1 of their playoff series. I don't think LA is getting enough respect not just in this game, but just in general. There's just not the hype around this team that there was last year or early on this season. 

I think everything the Clippers have done was to get ready for the playoffs. I believe we are about to see a completely different team. I also think this is a really tough matchup for the Mavs. LA is every bit as good as Dallas offensively, but are by far the better defensive team. I think the Clippers' defense and the homecourt edge will propel them to a comfortable win. Give me the Clippers -5! 

50* (NBA) - Grizzlies/Warriors MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 221) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 221 in Friday's Play-In matchup for the No. 8 seed between the Warriors and Grizzlies. While we just watched the Wizards/Pacers fly past the total last night, the UNDER has hit in 3 of the 5 play-in games with the only two OVERs coming in games that involved the Pacers. 

The Grizzlies/Spurs matchup on Wednesday went UNDER the total of 225 by 29 points, as the Grizzlies won that game by a final of 100-96. The Warriors/Lakers game stayed UNDER the total of 217 by 14 as LA won 103-100. 

Both of these teams were exceptional on the defensive end, as Memphis held the Spurs to just 35% shooting, while Golden State held the Lakers to 40.7% from the field. If you go back it's nothing new. Grizzlies have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 44% or worse, while the Warriors have held 7 of their last 10 under that mark. These two played late in the regular-season and only combined for 214 points and that was with GW shooting 49%. Give me the UNDER 221! 

50* (NBA) - Thursday NBA Play-In MAX UNIT Top Play (Wizards -3.5) 

I will gladly take the Wizards -3.5 at home against the Pacers in Thursday's winner take all matchup in the Play-In Tournament. Washington watched a halftime lead evaporate in a 100-118 loss at Boston. Wizards couldn't buy a 3-pointer, as they shot just 3 for 21 and it didn't help that Jason Tatum went off for 50. 

Pacers beat Charlotte 144-117 even after LeVert was a late scratch. I'm just not buying that performance from Indiana. They couldn't have shot it any better and the Hornets are awful defensively. 

Washington's defense will put up a much bigger fight and the Wizards have the two best players on the floor in Westbrook and Beal. Give me Washington -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Play-In Tournament MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets +3.5) 

I really like Charlotte to win this game, making them a no-brainer at +3.5. The Hornets lost their last 5 games, but I liked what I seen out of this team in those losses. They really should have beat the Wizards in the regular-season finale to be the No. 8 seed. Charlotte has got a lot of key guys back in recent weeks. 

I just feel the Hornets are the much better team. The Pacers are without a huge piece in Myles Turner, as he made a huge impact on both ends of the floor. They also got a lot of other guys banged up and really haven't been the same team since trading Oladipo. I just don't think playing at home will be enough to propel them in this spot. Give me the Hornets +3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (Pacers -6.5) 

No need to overthink this one. I just think the books really have a hard time setting this line high enough. You can't focus too much on how the Pacers have been playing down the stretch. This is more a play against an awful Cavs team against a team that still has something to play for. 

Cleveland knew they weren't a playoff team before the season even started and they look like they have thrown in the towel down the stretch. Cavs have lost 10 in a row with each of the last 6 losses coming by at least 16 points.

Cleveland has allowed 9 straight opponents to shoot 48% or better from the field. Pacers have shot 48% or better from the field in 4 of their last 5, twice shooting better than 60%. Offense hasn't been their problem. Give me Indiana -6.5! 

50* (NBA) Sunday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Hornets -3.5) 

I love the Hornets as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Pelicans. I think the fact that New Orleans is very much alive in the playoff race, just 2 games back of San Antonio for the 10th and final spot, and they come in having covered 6 of 7, has them getting too much respect here. 

Charlotte is still down a couple key pieces, but they have recently got back star rookie LaMelo Ball and he's a difference maker. He does it all and more importantly makes the game easier on his teammates. 

The Hornets injuries don't even begin to compare to that of the Pelicans who are down their two best players in Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. New Orleans may put up a fight early, but Charlotte should take control of this one in the 2nd half. Give me the Hornets -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Mavs -9.5) 

I got no problem laying the big number with the Mavs at home against the Cavaliers on Friday. I think some might hesitate to lay it with Dallas here given they are on the second leg of a back-to-back after a big game against Brooklyn last night and will be without Porzingis, but Cleveland has shown little to no interest in finishing the season strong. Cavs have lost 8 straight and 11 of 12 overall. Each of their last 4 losses coming by at least 16 points. 

This is also a game the Mavs just can't afford to not show up and secure a win. With the Lakers and Blazers playing each other tonight, they got a chance here to move a full 2-games in front of one of those teams. Whoever that is will be in the dreaded No. 7 seed and have to play in the play-in tournament. There's a big urgency with a lot of teams to avoid that play-in tournament. Dallas is one of them. Give me the Mavs -9.5! 

50* (NBA) - Thursday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Hawks -5) 

We cashed in a huge GOM Top Play on the Hawks last night, as Atlanta cruised to a 135-103 win at home against the Suns as a 1-point dog. I will take that profit and fire right back with the Hawks on Thursday, as they are a  mere 5-point favorite at Indiana. 

The Pacers are somehow still in the playoff picture, sitting 9th in the east standings, but this team has looked nothing like a playoff team the last few weeks. Indiana is just 5-8 in their last 13 games and their 5 wins during this stretch have come against the Rockets, Pistons, Magic and Thunder (twice). They just lost at home last night to a Kings team that has nothing to play for 93-104. Give me Hawks -5! 

50* (NBA) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH (Hawks PK) 

I absolutely love the Hawks here as a Pick'em at home against the Suns. If all things were equal (both teams on the same rest and no injuries), I would probably back Phoenix, but that's just not the case. 

This is an awful spot for the Suns, who to their own fault let the Cavs hang around and ended up needing OT to get a win in Cleveland last night. Now they are no rest with tired legs playing an Atlanta team that has really turned a corner under interim head coach Nate McMillan. Hawks have also got a lot of their guys who were out with injuries back in the rotation. Only De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish are on the injury report. Reddish hasn't played since late Feb. and Hunter since late March. Give me the Hawks PK! 

50* (NBA) - Tuesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 215.5) 

I really like the UNDER 215.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Heat and Mavs. These two teams are in similar spots down the stretch, as both are fighting to avoid the play-in tournament. Right now both are safe, but not by much. 

Mavs sit 6th, just 0.5-games ahead of 7th place Portland. Miami is 6th in the east, but are just 1-game up on 7th place Boston. Every win is huge for these two teams and I think with both teams having Monday off, we are going to get a big defensive effort. 

Both teams also figure to be without two of their top offensive playmakers, as the Mavs aren't expected to have Kristaps Porzingis and the Heat are going to be without Tyler Herro. Note Miami is also still without Oladipo and may not have the services of Iguodala. Give me the UNDER 215.5! 

50* (NBA) - Knicks/Grizzlies *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Grizzlies -2.5) 

I love the Grizzlies as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against the Knicks. This just feels like the perfect spot to fade New York. The Knicks have been on a ridiculous run, but so have the Grizzlies. Memphis has gone 18-8 (69%) ATS in their last 26 games. They are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at home and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite. 

Knicks are also not in a great spot. While they had an easy time beating the Rockets 122-97 on Sunday, they will be playing their second straight on the road on no rest. 

The game also doesn't mean as much to New York, who comfortably sits 4th in the Eastern Conference, 1.5-games ahead of the Hawks and Heat who are T-5th. Memphis is also in if the playoffs started today, but they are 8th, just 0.5-games ahead of the Warriors and 3.5 ahead of NO, who is on the outside looking in. Give me the Grizzlies -2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sunday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (76ers -5) 

I will gladly lay just 5-points with Philly on the road against the Spurs. The 76ers come into this game having won and covered 3 straight. None of those 3 games were close. They routed OKC 121-90, before crushing the Hawks 127-83 and 126-104 in two straight against Atlanta. This little mini run has coincided with Philadelphia getting healthy. 

I just think this team is locked in right now. For them to do what they did to the Hawks in the second meeting with Atlanta after beating by nearly 50 the game before, really says a lot about the mindset of this team right now. I think they really want that No. 1 seed and it's definitely within reach, as they are just 0.5-game back of the Nets. 

Spurs have definitely overachieved, which is to be expected under Popovich, but they aren't anywhere close to as talented or as good as Philly. You are basically asking them (Spurs) to win outright for them to keep this within 4 or less. Give me the 76ers -5! 

50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 219) 

I absolutely love the UNDER 219 in Friday's huge Western Conference showdown between the Suns and Jazz. The winner of this game will be in the drivers seat for the No. 1 seed in the west, as Utah comes into this matchup just 1-game up on the Suns with both teams having just 9 left on the schedule after this contest. Phoenix has the tiebreaker, so if the two finished tied they get the top spot. 

I think the defensive intensity is going to be very high on both sides. You also got Utah playing this game without Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley. So while these two did combine for 230 in their last meeting, that was with Mitchell carrying the Jazz with 41 points. Conley was also in double-figures with 11. Give me the UNDER 219! 

50* (NBA) - Wednesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Grizzlies -1.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Grillies as a mere -1.5 home favorite against the Blazers. Portland was able to snap a 5-game losing streak with a 133-112 blowout win over the Pacers last night, but let's not forget Indiana is extremely short-handed right now. 

I also think it's important to note that Lillard wasn't spectacular. He had 23 points, but was just 6 of 14 shooting. It was reserve Anfernee Simons that won them the game. Simmons scored 27 in 24 mins, going a ridiculous 9 of 10 from behind the 3-point line. 

I just don't think the Grizzlies are getting near enough respect at home in this game. Memphis has been one of the hottest teams in the league for over a month now. Give me the Grizzlies -1.5! 

50* (NBA) - Monday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Mavs -5.5) 

I will gladly lay the 5.5 points on the road with the Mavs against the Kings. I just think this is a great spot to fade Sacramento. The Kings are without their best player in De'Aaron Fox and while they covered and nearly won outright at Golden State without him last night, that was clearly a game the Kings wanted to show well in. Some of that is probably how good Curry is playing, you also got former Warriors players and coaches on Sacramento (Barnes/Walton). 

That game also felt like it was the Kings last shot at getting back in the playoff picture, as the Warriors are the team they needed to catch for that 10th and final spot. Sacramento is now 6.5-games back with only 12 to play and have to also jump the Pelicans in the process. I just think we are going to see a really flat Kings team here on no rest. Give me the Mavs -5.5! 

50* (NBA) Saturday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (76ers +7.5) 

I love the 76ers as a 7.5-point dog in Saturday's rematch with the Bucks. Milwaukee won the first matchup 124-117 on Thursday. One thing to note about that game, is the Bucks had a huge rest advantage. Milwaukee was on two days of rest, while Philly was playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard fought 3-point loss the night before to the Suns. 

I know Embiid is questionable to play, but I'm okay either way. I just feel that if Embiid sits, it will make it hard for Milwaukee to show up with the right mindset. I don't think the effort will be lacking from the 76ers side. There's a lot more to this team than Embiid and let's not forget we don't need them to win, just keep it respectable. I believe they do that. Give me the 76ers +7.5! 

50* (NBA) - Friday Night *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Heat -5)  

I love the Heat as a mere 5-point road favorite against a Hawks team that will be without All-Star point guard Trae Young. Not only will Young be sidelined, but Clint Capela is questionable, while Tony Snell, Cam Reddish, De'Andre Hunter and Kris Dunn are all out. 

Key here is I don't see Miami letting Young's absence change how they approach this game. This is huge for playoffs. It's really important this year to be a Top 6 seed, as you avoid the play-in tournament. Right now the Heat are 7th in the east, but just 1-game back both the Hawks and Celtics. Not only can they make ground on Atlanta with a win, but with Boston playing at Brooklyn tonight they got a good chance here to make ground up on both teams. I just don't see the Hawks being able to compete without Young in this spot. Give me the Heat -5! 

50* (NBA) - Wednesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Warriors -2) 

I will gladly take my chances here with the Warriors as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Wizards. There's a couple of reasons I like Golden State here. The most obvious is the play of Steph Curry. It's pretty clear to me that Curry took all that hate and criticism he was getting early in the year to heart. He's been the best player in the league for weeks now. I don't know how you don't bet on the Warriors at this price when he's playing like this. 

The other thing here is I don't see Golden State suffering any kind of letdown against the Wizards after their big win at Philadelphia. That's because Washington recently won at Golden State. A game the Warriors played very poorly in the 1st half and let slip away in the final seconds. I just think this team is locked in right now and while I think the Wizards are playing well, they have beat up on a lot of bad teams during their 7-1 run here. Give me the Warriors -2! 

50* (NBA) - Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 237.5) 

I love the OVER 237.5 in Tuesday's game between the Timberwolves and Kings. I just don't see any defense being played between these two Western Conference bottom feeders. Neither plays much defense as it is. Both certainly haven't been playing much of late, as Minnesota is giving up 121.8 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5, while Sacramento has allowed 119.4 ppg on 51% shooting in their last 5. 

Key here is that both of these teams can score. I don't think it will take much for both of these teams to reach 120 points. Also, I think the fact that these two are scheduled to turn around and play each other again in Sacramento tomorrow night, gives that much more incentive to not try defensively in this first meeting. Give me the OVER 237.5! 

50* (NBA) - Monday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Spurs -1) 

I really like the Spurs as a 1-point road favorite against the Pacers. This line opened at Indiana -2.5 and completely flipped to San Antonio. No way the public is rushing to back the Spurs as a small road dog. That tells me there's either a lot of sharp money on the Spurs. 

There's definitely reason to like San Antonio here, as they will have a big advantage in terms of rest with the Pacers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing 3 straight on the road. Spurs are also coming in off a 111-85 win at Phoenix as a 12-point dog. Pacers are also lost defensively right now, as they are allowing 124.6 ppg over their last 5. Give me the Spurs -1! 

50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Pelicans -2)

I will gladly take my chances here with the Pelicans as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Wizards. New Orleans is coming off an ugly 106-116 loss at home to the Knicks, which I feel is playing into the favorable number. As is the fact that the Wizards have won 4 of 5 and covered 5 of 6. 

Key here is the Pelicans are simply the better team and will be getting back a big piece to their rotation with Lonzo Ball upgraded to probable. Ball just helps the offense flow better when he's on the floor. Another key here is this is not a good spot for Washington, who just finished up a 6-game road trip that started with two games in Florida an ended out on the west coast. Give me the Pelicans -2! 

50* (NBA) - Wednesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Pistons +9)

I love the value here with Detroit as a near double-digit home dog against the Clippers. This just feels like the perfect spot to fade LA, as they are way overvalued right now due to winning 6 straight and 12 of 14 overall. 

The key here is the Clippers just played a nationally televised game last night against the Clippers. Will be really easy for them to not give their best effort here in the second of a back-to-back. It's also their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in the last 7 days. Detroit on the other hand is going to be fresh having been off the last two days. Give me the Pistons +9! 

50* (NBA) - Tuesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Lakers +2.5) 

I love the value here with the Lakers at basically a pick'em on the road against the Hornets. I think we are getting some value here with LA due to the fact that they will be playing on no rest after last night's ugly 96-111 loss at the Knicks. A game they have to feel like they beat themselves with 24 turnovers. 

I not only think we are going to get a big effort out of the Lakers off that ugly showing, I see the Hornets as an easy fade right now. They just lost at home to a Hawks team that was missing a ton of their top players, including Trae Young. I just think LA will be able to exploit Charlotte's awful defense and the Lakers defense should feast here against a Hornets team that is without Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball. Give me the Lakers +2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sunday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Bulls -4.5) 

I love the Bulls -4.5 in Sunday's road game against the Timberwolves. Chicago had their 3-game winning streak snapped in a 108-120 loss at Atlanta on Friday, but are still 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. I really like the look of this Bulls team after the moves they made at the trade deadline. 

Minnesota is a team I will be backing as a big dog, but this is just not the price or spot we want anything to do with the Timberwolves. Minnesota is coming off a 2-game road trip at Indiana and Boston, where they gave up 141 to the Pacers and 145 to the Celtics. They also could have a hard time here not looking ahead to tomorrow's home game against the Nets. Give me the Bulls -4.5! 

50* (NBA) - Thursday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Clippers -5) 

I love the Clippers -5 at home against the Suns on Thursday. I just think this is an awful spot for Phoenix, who just gave everything they had in last night's 117-113 OT win against the Jazz. Even if that game hadn't went to OT, I would have been looking to fade the Suns off that game. The fact that it did, makes me like it that much more. 

The other big thing here is the Clippers are in good form. Los Angeles has won their last two in blowout fashion, beating the Lakers 104-86 and the Blazers 133-116. Clippers are 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. Give me the Clippers -5! 

50* (NBA) - Wednesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Over 231) 

I love the OVER 231 in tonight's game between the Pelicans and Nets. While Brooklyn won't have the services of James Harden for a while, they are expected to get back Kevin Durant. The duo of Durant and Irving with all the role players they got is more than enough. 

I look for the Nets to have a field day offensively against an awful Pelicans defense that is giving up 117.6 ppg over their last 5. They didn't even try to defend the 3-point line in last night's 107-123 loss to the Hawks, as Atlanta went 20 of 31 (64.5%) from deep. They give those Nets the same looks and Brooklyn could easily score 140+

The key here is I think the Nets aren't going to be all that locked in defensively. They got a lot of new pieces and it's going to take some time before they are a cohesive defensive unit. New Orleans is also a very strong offensive team. Give me the OVER 231! 

50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225.5) 

I love the OVER 225.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Hawks. I think we are getting a discount on the total due to the fact that New Orleans could be playing again without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Both are listed as questionable, but there's been no indication that they will play. If they do that's great, but I don't think they need them to eclipse this number. 

In the Pelicans last 4 games they have combined for 124 with the Celtics, 125 with the Magic, 129 with these same Hawks and 137 in their last game with the Rockets. Going back even further, NO has seen a combined score of at least 120 in 7 of their last 8. 

Add that with how the Hawks have been playing and this is a no-brainer. In Atlanta's last 5 games they are scoring 117.8 ppg on 49% shooting and giving up 117.2 ppg on 48% shooting. Give me the OVER 225.5! 

50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (UNDER 224) 

I absolutely love the UNDER 224 in Friday's game between the Pelicans and Hawks. I just don't see these two coming anywhere close to this total given the circumstances. 

For Atlanta, they will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after a grueling 134-129 OT win at San Antonio last night. A game in which 4 different Hawks' players logged 35 or more minutes. On top of that, this is Atlanta's 8th and final game of a brutal 8-game road trip. 

As for the Pelicans, they might be extremely short-handed here, as Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonza Ball are all questionable. Given that the line for this game is right around a pick'em that tells me there's a good chance at least two of these guys aren't suiting up and maybe all 3. Give me the UNDER 224! 

50* (NBA) Thursday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Nuggets -1) 

I love the value here with the Nuggets as a mere 1-point road favorite against the Clippers. Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league, as they have won 12 of their last 15. They have really impressed since acquiring Aaron Gordon in a trade. 

I look for the Nuggets to stay hot against an injury-depleted and tired Clippers team. LA will be playing here without Paul George, Serge Ibaka, Patrick Beverly and Rajon Rondo. They also might not have Marcus Morris. That's a tall task to overcome given the Clippers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 6th game in 9 days. Give me the Nuggets -1! 

50* (NBA) - Wednesday Night *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Celtics +1) 

I love the Celtics here as a home dog against the Mavs. While Boston is coming off a 109-115 home loss to the Pelicans, they have covered 4 of their last 6 and showed a lot of fight in that game against New Orleans, nearly erasing a 17-point deficit in the 4th quarter. They did so without the services of Jaylen Brown (questionable to play) and newly acquired Evan Fournier going scoreless on 0-10 shooting. 

Dallas comes in off a 127-106 blowout win against the Thunder, but that was to be expected given what OKC is sending out to the court right now. Prior to that win the Mavs had lost by 9 at the Pelicans and by 15 at home to the Pacers. Dallas is just 2-8 ATS last 10 after scoring 125 or more in their last game and 1-6 ATS last 7 off a win by 10 or more. Celtics are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 8-1 ATS last 9 at home off a game where they failed to cover. Give me Boston +1! 

50* (NBA) - Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH (Bucks -6) 

I really like the Bucks as a 6-point home favorite against the Celtics on Friday. These two teams just played on Wednesday. Milwaukee won that game, but failed to cover as a 7-point favorite in a 121-119 win. 

Not only are we getting a better number this time around, but the Celtics will be playing short-handed here. Boston was active at the trade deadline yesterday and ended up parting ways with starting center Theis and backup point guard Teague. They acquired Fournier, Wagner and Kornet, but it's unlikely any of those will be available.

Teague and Theis were two of 8 guys who saw more than 5 mins against Milwaukee, so Boston will have to go way down in their depth chart here. I just don't think they will be able to keep pace with Milwaukee in this one. Give me the Bucks -6! 

50* (NBA) - Grizzlies/Thunder MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies -4.5) 

I love the value here with Memphis as a small road favorite against the Thunder. The Grizzlies come into this game with some momentum having beat the Warriors 111-103 and the Celtics 132-126 in their last 2 games.

They shouldn't have any problem staying locked in here against a Thunder team they just lost two a couple weeks ago in OKC. It was a game that had to sting a little. Memphis won each of the first 3 quarters and had a 10-point lead going into the 4th quarter, only to get outscored 36-22 to lose by 6. 

Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS last 10 games as a favorite. OKC who just finished up a 4-game road trip is a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days. Give me Memphis -4.5! 

50* (NBA) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH (Blazers -1.5) 

I will gladly back the Blazers at basically a pick'em at home against a Brooklyn team that will be without at least 2 of their 3 starters. Durant is still out with a hamstring injury, Irving is out for at least 3 games to deal with a personal matter and Harden is questionable with a neck injury. 

This shouldn't be much of a problem for Portland and while it might be tough for the Blazers to take the Nets seriously if all 3 are out, I'm confident they find a way to win. Portland should be motivated here regardless of who plays, as they were just embarrassed by the Mavs 132-92 in their last game. Blazers are still a very strong 7-3 SU in their last 10 games. Portland has also covered 5 of their last 7 off a double-digit loss at home. Give me the Blazers -1.5! 

50* (NBA) - Western Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Pelicans +1)

I will gladly take my chances here with New Orleans at basically a pick'em against the Blazers. This is a rematch from Tuesday, a game that saw the Pelicans lose 124-125, despite leading 115-98 with 6:53 left on the clock in the 4th quarter. 

It was an epic meltdown and outstanding comeback by Portland. I just think the quick turnaround and how that game played out, will have the Pelicans as the much more motivated team in the rematch.

You don't erase a deficit like that in that amount of time very often. It will be really hard for Portland to have some kind of letdown off that win. On the flip side, New Orleans has to be sitting their pissed off and sick to their stomach about what happened. I think Pelicans will stick to what got them that big lead and maintain that chip on their shoulder this time around. Give me New Orleans +1!