10* NBA Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON WASHINGTON WIZARDS +7.5: I love the Wizards as a 7.5-point road dog against the Mavs on Tuesday. This is a Washington team that I'm looking to back right now and no way I'm passing up on them at this price. Wizards are as healthy as they have been all season and it's shown in their recent performances. Washington went on the road and beat the Knicks 116-105 on Wednesday and then crushed the Magic 138-118 at home on Saturday. They are very well rested team, playing just their 3rd game in the last 7 days.

This will be the Mavs 4th game in the last 7 days and they have not been playing well. Dallas is just 2-6 SU in their last 8. They are a mere 3-9 ATS in their last 12. Doncic is incredible, but they really miss Christian Wood, who is out with a thumb injury. Keep in mind they also are playing right now without Maxi Kleber, who would be the guy that normally would be asked to pick up the slack with Wood out. Just too many points for Dallas to be laying in this spot. Give me the Wizards +7.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON UNDER 239.5: The total here is simply too high given the tough scheduling spots we find both of these teams. I got to think both of these teams are going to be looking to slow the tempo down. 

The Hawks are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights after a 139-124 blowout win over the Knicks on Friday and then a 118-122 loss at home to the Hornets on Saturday. Worth noting it's just not a bad short-term stretch for rest with the Hawks. This will also be their 7th game in the last 11 days. As for the Bulls, they are playing on a full 3 days of rest, but their last game was played in Paris. 

For this game to go over the number, both teams are likely going to have to score in the 120's. I wouldn't be shocked if neither team got to 120. Give me the UNDER 238.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Miami Heat -1

I'll take my chances with the Heat as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Mavs on Friday. Miami is starting to look more and more like the team we expected to see to start the season. Heat have won 4 of their last 5 and 10 of their last 16 to improve to 25-21. They were just a 3.5-point road favorite against a short-handed Pelicans team and won the game 124-98. 

Now they get a Mavs team that has been struggling of late. Dallas has lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. They are also just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games. Mavs will have to try and get back on track without one of their best players in Christian Wood, who is second on the team in scoring (18.4 ppg) and rebounding (8.4 rpg). It's not just his offense and rebounding, Wood leads the team and T-12th in the league with 1.3 blocks/game. Not exactly what Dallas needed, given how they have struggled on the defensive side of the ball. 

Don't be surprised if Luka puts up some crazy numbers in this one. He's going to have to shoulder a heavy load just for the Mavs to keep this respectable. In the end, I don't see them doing enough to get a win at home against Miami. Give me the Heat -1! 

10* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Dallas Mavericks -3.5

I'll take my chances on the Mavs as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Hawks. I think it's time to buy-low on Dallas right now. Mavs just lost back-to-back games to a struggling Blazers team and are just 1-4 SU over their last 5. They have also gone just 2-7 ATS over their previous 9. I also think it's a good time to sell-high on the Hawks. Atlanta has won 3 straight, most recently beating a hot Heat team 121-113 as a mere 1-point favorite. It all adds up to a very cheap price to back Dallas, especially given the circumstances. 

Mavs are going to be fresh, as they have been off since Sunday. Star Luka Doncic will be on 3-days rest, as he sat out the second of a back-to-back (He's listed as questionable, but expected to play). Any injury concerns with Christian Wood were put to rest with him returning to play on Sunday after sitting Saturday. Tim Hardaway Jr. will miss this game, but there's a chance Dallas gets back Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Green. Finney-Smith has started 31 games, while Green has flashed potential off the bench. 

Hawks will be on just 1 day of rest after playing Monday. Atlanta's got to be sick and tired of traveling. Outside of playing two straight games in LA vs the Lakers and Clippers, Hawks haven't played back to back games on the same floor since a short two game homestand in late Dec. This is also a Hawks team that is just 10-13 on the road, getting outscored by 2.4 ppg. Mavs are 16-6 at home, outscoring opponents by 5.4 ppg. 

Dallas is 17-7 ATS last 24 as a home favorite of 6 or less. Hawks are 4-13 ATS last 17 off a cover, 14-27 last 41 as a road dog and 2-11 ATS last 13 on the road after leading in their previous game by 15+ points at the half. Give me the Mavs -3.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls -4

I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a 4-point home favorite against the Thunder. I like this spot for Chicago, who I feel will be extra motivated to get a win here after losing their last two games. This is a team that was really playing well before this latest hiccup. Chicago is still 8-5 SU and 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games. Yes, the Bulls figure to be without Demar DeRozan, but this is a really bad scheduling spot for OKC. 

Thunder were in action last night at Philly, a game they shockingly won 133-114 as a 10.5-point underdog. Not easy bouncing back this late in the season on no rest, especially on the road. This will be the Thunder's 3rd road game in 4 nights, which only makes this spot that much worse. Who knows if OKC even plays all their guys on the 2nd of a back-to-back. Either way the price is too good to pass up with Chicago. Give me the Bulls -4! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Magic/Blazers OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 229.5 in Tuesday's matchup between the Magic and Blazers. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing 230 points. Orlando will be playing this game on no rest after last night's 111-136 loss at Sacramento. OVER is 5-2 in the second leg of back-to-back games with Orlando this season. Magic are giving up 120 ppg in this spot. OVER is 4-1 in Portland's last 5 home games, with the lone exception being a game against the Hornets that went UNDER despite the two teams combining for 237 points. Blazers have put up 127.2 ppg during this 5-game home stretch. 

You got to go into this game expecting Portland to at the very least put up 120 points, which means we would need just 110 from Orlando to cash this ticket. A mark the Magic have hit in 13 of their last 16 games. Blazers allow 112.1 ppg on the season. I just think with how easy it's going to be on offense, the effort isn't going to be all that great on defense. As long as Orlando doesn't go ice cold in this game, we cash this easy. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls +4.5

I'll take my chances with Chicago catching 4.5 on the road against a 76ers team that will be without one of the best players in the game in Joel Embiid. Bulls have been playing some of their best basketball of the season here of late. Chicago is 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS over their last 9 games. Two of those losses were by 1-point at home to the Cavs and by 11 in OT at Cleveland. They just beat a red-hot Nets team 121-112 as  5-point home dog last time out. 

76ers were able to win without Embiid on Wednesday, knocking off the Pacers 129-126, but needed OT to secure the victory and did not cover. Philly has enough scorers to put up points without Embiid, but they really miss him on the defensive side of the ball. Chicago isn't a great 3-point shooting team, but are connecting on 48.7% of their attempts for the season and have shot 48% or better from the field in 9 of their last 10 games. Only exception was against a Bucks defense that is one of the best in the NBA on the defensive side of the ball. 

Harden, Maxey, Harris and Melton all played 37 or more minutes in that OT win against the Pacers and only 7 guys had more than 20 minutes. I just think their lack of depth and not having Embiid puts them in a tough spot here. Give me the Bulls +4.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Clippers/Nuggets OVER 227.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 227.5 in Thursday's showdown between the Clippers and Nuggets. LA could be without Paul George for this game, which is a big loss for the Clippers offense. However, they should be just fine offensively against a leaky Denver defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. 

These two teams combined for 110 in their previous meeting this season, but LA didn't have George or Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi has been playing consistently for a good stretch now and has put in 20+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. John Wall tormented Denver's defense for 23 points on 8 of 10 shooting in that first meeting. Leonard and Wall should provide a solid 1-2 punch in this one. 

As for the Clippers defense, it's certainly not as good without George on the floor. LA is a team that I think struggles to defend the big men inside and Denver has the best in the business down low in Jokic. Nuggets offense as a whole ranks 2nd in the NBA behind only the Celtics in offensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5! 

10* NBA - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Spurs/Knicks OVER 226.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 226.5 in Wednesday's game between the Spurs and Knicks. There's not much you really need to look at here besides how recent San Antonio games have gone. The OVER has cashed in 8 straight and 11 of the last 12 games the Spurs have played. The only game that didn't was against the Heat, who play at one of the slowest paces in the league. 

San Antonio has allowed at least 115 points in 7 straight games, 6 times giving up 122 or more. They are scoring 115.5 ppg over their last 13. This team is built for shootouts and I just don't think this total should be less than 230. 

Knicks are extremely well rested. Their only game so far in January was Monday's 102-83 win at home over the Suns, where they coasted after getting a big lead early. I don't see them having any problem scoring 120+ points in this one. Spurs at the very least should give us around 110. That's more than enough to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Orlando Magic -3

I'll take my chances with the Magic as a 3-point home favorite against the Lakers. It's been all downhill for LA since they lost Anthony Davis to a foot injury. Lakers come in having lost 4 straight and have played absolutely zero defense during the losing streak. LA is giving up 130.5 ppg in this stretch. I don't see it getting any better against the Magic, who have been one of the hottest teams in the league in the month of December. Orlando is 8-1 over their last 9 games and have covered 10 straight. The only loss being a mere 1-point defeat on the road against the Hawks. If the Lakers weren't such a public team, this line would be closer to 7. Simply put, there's too much value with Orlando at this price. Give me the Magic -3! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Boston Celtics -4.5

I'll take my chances with the Celtics as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Bucks on Christmas Day. I just think that when they have played their best, Boston has looked like the best team in the NBA and I expect the best they have to offer in this game against the Bucks. Boston snapped a 3-game skid with a 121-109 win and cover at home against the Timberwolves on Friday. It was the best they have looked in 2 weeks and I like them to build on that. 

As for the Bucks, they come in off back-to-back losses, falling 106-114 at Cleveland last Wednesday and then 100-118 at Brooklyn on Friday. This will be Milwaukee's 4th straight game on the road in what has really been a brutal stretch in their schedule. The Bucks are also just not a great road team this year. Milwaukee is 14-3 at home compared to just 8-7 on the road. The offense simply hasn't been good enough away from home, as they are scoring just 106.0 ppg on 43.5% shooting on the road. 

That's a problem against this Celtics team that was on a historic offensive pace before their recent swoon. Boston also just got one of the games best interior defenders back in Robert Williams. Celtics have the big guys inside to make it tough on Giannis and without him dominating the game, I don't know where the offense is going to come from for the Bucks. Give me the Celtics -4.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: New York Knicks -4.5

I'll take my chances with the Knicks as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Warriors. New York is one of the hottest teams in the NBA and are easily playing their best basketball of the season. Knicks come into this game having gone a perfect 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS over their last 7 games. A big reason for their strong play, is the improved play on the defensive side of the ball. New York is allowing just 98.2 ppg during their 7-game win streak and only once in this stretch have they allowed more than 106 points. 

The Warriors come into this game off an impressive 126-110 win on the road against the Raptors as a 6-point dog. It was a nice win, but this a team I don't want a lot to do with while Steph Curry remains out of the lineup. That was the Warriors first win without Curry on the floor this season, as they are 1-4 in games without him. It's worth noting that the win did come against a struggling Raptors team that has lost 6 in a row. They also got a career-high 43 points from Joran Poole and shot 46.2 (18-39) on 3-pointers. No other Warrior player had more than 17 points. 

Warriors are just 4-13 ATS in road games this season and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after a SU win. Knicks are 16-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having covered 4 or more games in a row. Give me New York -4.5! 

10* NBA - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls -2.5

I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Knicks on Friday. I love the revenge spot for Chicago, as these two teams played in Chicago on Wednesday with New York securing a 128-120 win in OT. It's just not easy beating the same team twice on the road and this is a Chicago team that has thrived in this spot. Bulls are 25-12 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. 

There's also a big time system in play favoring a Chicago cover. Favorites that are off a home loss and revenging a loss as a home favorite are 83-37 (69.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Favorites off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent off a win as a road dog are 79-41 (65.8%) over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Bulls -2.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Toronto Raptors -4.5

I'll take my chances with the Raptors as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Kings. This is an easy play on Toronto for me. This is an awful scheduling spot for Sacramento. The Kings aren't playing well, having lost 3 of their last 4. They were dominated last night in Philly by the 76ers. I just don't think this team has much gas in the tank. Not only are the Kings playing in the second of a back-to-back, but it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights and the 5th straight road game as they continue on their 6-game road trip. 

Toronto on the other hand is going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column after dropping back-to-back games on the road against the Magic this past weekend. Key here is the Raptors are going to have some fresh legs, having had the last two days off. Toronto is also a different team at home, where they are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS. 

Toronto is 20-9 ATS last 29 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days and 13-3 ATS last 16 at home off an upset loss as a favorite. Give me the Raptors -4.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Bucks/Mavs UNDER 224.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224.5 in Friday's showdown between the Bucks and Mavs on ESPN. I'm expecting a pretty big effort from these two in this nationally televised game. Milwaukee comes into this game ranked 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and I really like the fact that they got an elite perimeter defender in Jrue Holiday to put on Luka Doncic. 

I also don't feel like the Mavs get enough respect on the defensive side of the ball at home. Dallas is only giving up 104.4 ppg on 45.9% shooting at home this year. The Bucks are also a different offensive team at home. Milwaukee is averaging 113.1 ppg on 46% shooting for the season, yet are scoring just 106.3 ppg on 43% shooting on the road. UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 road games for the Bucks this season. 

UNDER is 20-7 in the Mavs last 27 as a home dog and 9-1 in their last 10 at home when they are playing 8 or more games in a 14 day stretch. UNDER is 20-9 in Milwaukee's last 29 with a line of +3 to -3 and 18-8 in their last 26 as a road favorite of 6 or less. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls -5.5

I really like Chicago to cover the 5.5 at home against the Wizards. This for me is all about the spot and the matchup. You have to think we get a huge effort here from this Bulls team. Chicago has had the last two days off to mull their recent funk. Not only do the Bulls come in off 3 straight loss, they are just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games. 

I do think this team will continue to disappoint until they get a healthy Lonzo Ball back in the lineup, but one thing Chicago has done under head coach Billy Donovan, is beat up on bad teams. Bulls are 35-14 SU and 31-17 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. They are also 20-8 ATS last 28 at home vs a team with a losing road record. They have covered 4 of their last 5 at home vs the Wizards and 9 of the last 12 meetings overall. 

Washington comes in having lost 6 of their last 7 and are playing without Bradley Beal right now. Give me the Bulls -5.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under TOTAL PLAY OF THE WEEK: Suns/Kings OVER 231.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Kings. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing this number. The Kings are seeing an average combined score of 241.8 ppg at home this season, as they are scoring 123.9 ppg and giving up 117.9 ppg. 

Phoenix is allowing just 107.7 ppg and 45.5% shooting for the season, but they are not the same defensive team on the road as they are at home. Suns are allowing 112.3 ppg and 48% shooting on the road. 

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league, as they come in tied for 3rd in offensive efficiency at 113.4. Kings should be able to control the tempo here as well, as they are playing on a full 2 days of rest, while Phoenix is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money PLAY OF THE WEEK: Charlotte Hornets -3.5

I will gladly take my chances with the Hornets as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the 76ers on Wednesday. Charlotte is just 1-11 over their last 12 games, but that's playing into the favorable number here. Even with Ball still sidelined, the Hornets are as healthy as they have been since the start of the season, as they just recently got back several key players including Hayward and Smith Jr. We should also get a big effort here from the Hornets given how fresh they will be for this game. Charlotte hasn't played since Sunday and this will be just their third game in the last 6 days. 

With all that said, this is even more a play against the 76ers in this spot. Philadelphia just played their hearts out last night against Brooklyn, despite missing all three of their Big 3 in Embiid, Harden and Maxey. They put everything they had into beating the Nets, as it was Ben Simmons' first game back in Philly. 

With the Big 3 all expected to be sidelined again tonight, it sets the 76ers up for a massive letdown on the road against a struggling Hornets team. Give me Charlotte -3.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Sacramento Kings -2

I'll take my chances with the Kings as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Grizzlies on Tuesday. Easy play here for me on Sacramento. The Kings have been playing as well as any team in the league over the last month. Sacramento comes in having won 6 straight. They are 9-2 SU and 9-2 ATS over their last 11 games. 

Kings will be facing a Memphis team that will likely be without two of their best players, as star point guard Ja Morant is listed as doubtful and Desmond Bane remains out with a toe injury. Bane has easily been the Grizzlies second best player this season, as he's averaging 24.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.8 apg and is shooting 45% from deep (averaging 3.8 made 3's a game). 

I just don't see the Grizzlies being able to keep pace offensively without Morant and Bane. Kings have scored 120 or more points in all 6 wins during the win streak. Give me Sacramento -2! 

10* NBA - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls +3.5

I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a 3.5-point road dog against the Pelicans tonight. I really like the rest advantage for Chicago in this one, as well as the revenge angle for the Bulls in this matchup. These two teams just played last Wednesday with New Orleans going on the road and beating Chicago 115-111. The Bulls only other game they have played since that meeting is a game against the Nuggets on Sunday, so this will be just the 2nd game in 7 days for Chicago. 

As for the Pelicans, they will be playing on no rest after a big game last night against Ja Morant and the Grizzlies. It will be New Orleans' 4th game in 7 days. Pelicans didn't have Zion last night and it's unclear if he will play in this one. The line here certainly suggest that he and maybe some others might not suit up for New Orleans. Either way, I like Chicago to cover in this spot. Give me the Bulls +3.5! 

10* NBA Vegas Insider TOP PLAY: Milwaukee Bucks -4

I'll take my chances with the Bucks as a 4-point home favorite against the Hawks. I like the revenge spot for Milwaukee in this one, as these two teams played in Atlanta last Monday. A game the Hawks won going away 117-98. You also got the Bucks coming in off an ugly 93-111 loss at San Antonio. 

Milwaukee is still 9-3 ATS on the season. With Antetokounmpo expected to play, I think that's more than enough to back the Bucks in this spot. Keep in mind that the Bucks were a 4-point road favorite in the last meeting, so despite the change in venue, there's been no adjustment to the line. 

Atlanta will also be without talented backup big man Onyeka Okongwu. He had a +22 +/- in 22 minutes in the first meeting with Milwaukee. Not having him inside against a guy like Giannis is a huge loss. Bucks are 7-0 at home, outscoring their opponents by 13.0 ppg. Give me Milwaukee -4! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nuggets/Celtics OVER 230.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 230.5 in Friday's showdown between the Nuggets and Celtics. I don't see these two teams having any problem getting into the 230s. Boston has seen an average combined score of 237.2 points in their 5 home games this year. Denver has seen an average combined score of 235.6 in their 7 road games. 

These are the two most efficient offenses in the league with Boston ranking first in offensive efficiency and the Nuggets in second. Not only that, but both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive efficiency. Unless we get some dreadful shooting by both teams, this should easily get past the number, as I think both of these teams will finish in the 120s. Give me the OVER 230.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5

I'll take my chances with the Timberwolves as a 5.5-point road dog against the Suns. This will be the second game of Tuesday's double-header on TNT. I believe because this is going to be a heavily bet game, the books have inflated the number on Phoenix to where there's just too much value to pass up on Minnesota. 

Suns come in having won and covered each of their last 4 games. The offense has really carried them during this win streak, as they come in having shot 50% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games. Thing is, that hot shooting has come against some bad defensive teams or in the case of the Pelicans a team missing some of their best players. 

As expected, Minnesota's defense has greatly improved with the addition of Rudy Gobert. Timberwolves are currently ranked No. 4 in the league in defensive efficiency. Portland is the only team Phoenix has played that currently ranks in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. Blazers held Phoenix to just 113 points and a season-worst 45.7% shooting. 

The other big thing here is the Suns are down one of their best players in Deandre Ayton, who missed their last game against the Rockets and is expected to be out at least a week. His absence is really going to be felt in this matchup with Gobert on the other side. I like the Timberwolves to not only cover, but to win outright. Give me Minnesota +5.5! 

10* NBA  Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Utah Jazz +9

I will gladly take the Jazz as a 9-point road dog against the Nuggets tonight. Utah has arguably been the most undervalued team in the league to start the season. Everyone thought the Jazz were in full on tank mode, yet they have come out and gone 4-1 in their first 5 games, with 3 of those wins coming as dogs of 6.5 or more. That includes a 123-102 win at home over these Nuggets to open the season. 

I'm sure Denver hasn't forgot about that game, but 9 points is way too many for them to be laying in this spot. The Nuggets just gave a big effort in a prime time game against the Lakers on Wednesday. 

Utah is getting great contributions across the board and maybe the most surprising thing with this team is how they are defending. The Jazz are sitting 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency right now. Give me Utah +9! 

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Knicks/Hornets OVER 224

I love the OVER 224 in Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Hornets. I'm shocked the total here isn't in the 230s. Both these teams are looking to play fast early on. Charlotte comes in ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.6 and New York is 12th at 101.9. Not only are these to pushing the tempo, they are two of the most efficient offensive teams. Charlotte ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency at 116.7 points per 100 possessions and the Knicks are 89th at 112.8 points per 100 possessions. Each of the Hornets 3 games have seen a combined score of 231 or more points, while the Knicks are seeing an average combined score of 226.7 points thru their first 3 games. Give me the OVER 224! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Toronto Raptors +3.5

I'll gladly take my chances with the Raptors as a 3.5-point road dog against Miami on Monday. These two teams just played each other in Miami on Saturday, so this is a true rematch. The Heat won that first meeting on their home floor 112-109, but it was Toronto that rallied from a big 1st half deficit to make a game of it. I look for the Raptors to be the much more motivated team in the rematch. Miami is just 18-32 (36%) ATS in their last 50 home games off a win by 3-points or less. Going back to last season, Toronto is 18-8 ATS last 26 off a SU loss. Give me the Raptors +3.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Detroit Pistons +6.5

I will take my chances with the Pistons as a 6.5-point road dog against the Knicks on Friday. I really like the makeup of this Detroit team. We saw them go on an ATS tear last year and while they won't cover at that same clip, this to me feels like a few too many given the tough spot for the Knicks. New York is coming off a 112-115 OT loss at Memphis on Wednesday, where they had to use a ton of energy to rally from a 19-point deficit. I look for the Knicks to come out a bit flat against a young and hungry Pistons team. Give me Detroit +6.5! 

10* NBA - Opening Night VEGAS INSIDER: Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5

I really like the Cavs as a 2.5-point underdog in Wednesday's season opener at the Raptors. This is nothing against Toronto, who I think has a tendency to be undervalued, I just am really high on this Cleveland team coming into this season. Addition of Donovan Mitchell gives the Cavs one of the more underrated starting fives in the league with him paired alongside Darius Garland, Caris LaVert, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. I really look for the size of Mobley and Allen to be huge in this game, as the Raptors are not a very big team with Pascal Siakam listed as the starting center on the depth chart. There will be no easy buckets for Toronto in this game and Cleveland should be able to abuse them on the other side down low. As long as the Raptors don't go crazy from behind the 3-point line, the Cavs should win here rather easily. Give me Cleveland +2.5! 

Warriors/Celtics MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors +4) 

I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 4-point dog in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. I know it's Boston that is facing elimination at home, but my money is on Golden State to finish off this thing tonight and not let it go to a Game 7. 

I thought it was really impressive how the Warriors were able to win Game 5 without a great offensive night from Steph Curry, who scored just 16 points on 7 of 22 shooting (0 for 9 on 3-pointers). It speaks volumes to just how good this Golden State defense has been. Boston is struggling to get anything out of their role players and continue to make it tough for both Tatum and Brown to get going. 

I look for Curry to bounce back in a big way tonight and more of the same from the Warriors defense. Give me Golden State +4! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Celtics/Warriors Game 5 VEGAS INSIDER (Warriors -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 3.5-point home favorite in Game 5 at home. Golden State evened up the series at 2-2 behind an epic performance from Steph Curry in Friday's 107-97 win at Boston in Game 4. 

Warriors did lose Game 1 at home after being up 12 going into the 4th quarter, but they came back and dominated Game 2 at home 107-88. I just have a lot more trust in Golden State. Curry is without question the best player on the floor and we can expect a lot more out of the other guys at home. Give me the Warriors -3.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Warriors/Celtics MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors +4) 

I'll take my chances with Golden State at +4 in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. This feels like a must-win for the Warriors with Boston up 2-1 after Tuesday's 116-100 win in Game 3. The Celtics came out on fire in Game 3 and it really felt like they should be up 20+ in the 1st Half. Even then Golden State was able to rally back in the 3rd quarter. They just didn't have enough gas in the tank to finish it off. 

Celtics got 27 from Brown, 26 from Tatum and 24 from Smart. I don't see them getting that kind of all-around production from those 3 again in Game 4. On the flip side, we know Curry is going to be great. All we need is for the bench to give them more than the 18 points they scored in Game 3. Mainly we need more out of Poole and I think he delivers. I'll take the points for insurance, but I like the Warriors to win this game outright. Give me Golden State +4! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Warriors/Celtics Game 3 MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors +3.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 3.5-point road dog in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. If not for that unbelievable shot making in Game 1 by Boston, this series would be 2-0 in favor of Golden State. Keep in mind the Warriors were up double-digits going into that 4th quarter of Game 1. They won Game 2 by by 19. 

Golden State to me has looked like the better team for 7 of the 8 quarters and that's with them getting almost nothing out of Klay Thompson. I just feel as long as Steph Curry continues to play at the level he's played in the first two games, it's going to be a tall task for Boston to win this series. 

The other big thing that doesn't get quite the attention that it deserves is the Warriors defense. After hitting 21 3-pointers (9 in the 4th quarter) of Game 1, Boston still managed to make 15 in Game 2, yet were only able to score 88 points. Give me the Warriors +3.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10(Scale of 1-10)

Celtics/Warriors MAX Unit Top Play (Warriors -4) 

I backed Golden State in Game 1 and took it on the chin. Warriors were up by as many 15 in the 3rd quarter and led by 12 going into the 4th quarter. The Celtics then played what has to be one of the greatest 4th quarters by a single team in NBA Finals history. 

Boston simply couldn't miss. They started the quarter making 7 straight 3's and ended up 9 for 11 when it was all said and done. For the game the Celtics shot 21-41 (51.2%) from behind the 3-pt line. I don't see them putting up anything close to those kind of numbers in Game 2. 

I get they won that game without Tatum putting up huge offensive numbers, but he still had a big impact with 13 assists. He had a hand in close to 40 points. He might score a few more in Game 2, but his assists will likely go way down. 

Warriors got a great game from Curry and Wiggins, but no one else really did much. Draymond didn't have his normal impact, Thompson could never get it going and Jordan Poole was basically a  no show. 

This is also a do or die moment for Golden State. They lose this game and go down 0-2 with 3 of the next 4 in Boston, it's all but over. My money is on the Warriors not letting that happen. Give me Golden State -4! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Celtics/Warriors Game 1 MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors -3.5)

Give me Golden State -3.5 at home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Sure, Boston had the tougher road to the Finals, but that doesn't mean that makes them more ready for this series. If anything, I think it's an advantage for Golden State. Boston has just played two grueling 7-game series against the Bucks and Heat. 

I also think the Warriors are an entire different beast than what the Celtics have seen so far in these playoffs. Brooklyn was not a good defensive team. Milwaukee and Miami were both really good defensively, but were so reliant on one guy to carry them offensively. Golden State is a very good defensive team and in my opinion are the hardest team in the NBA to defend. I think this line should be closer to 5. Give me the Warriors -3.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Celtics/Heat Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat +2.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Heat at +2.5 at home in Game 7. The entire outlook of this series shifted in Game 6 when Jimmy Butler returned to form. After knee inflammation really limited him in Game 3 and Game 4, Butler put on a show in Game 6 with a 47-point performance on the road facing elimination. Butler also had 9 rebounds and 8 assists. He looked like a different guy and with him playing at that level, I like the Heat to win this game and return to the NBA Finals. Give me the Heat +2.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs +7) 

I'll take my chances with the Mavs as a 7-pt dog at Golden State in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. I think the assumption is that the Warriors didn't have the right mindset up 3-0 in Game 4. Everyone just says that was Dallas' game to get. 

I get it, but you also got to look at the whole picture. Mavs got blown out in Game 1, which was to be expected coming off a Game 7 win over the Suns after trailing in that series 2-3. They had a HUGE lead and blew it in Game 2 and in Game 3 half their team couldn't buy a shot and they still only lost by 9. 

Coming back from a 3-0 deficit has never been done. I don't think it happens here, but I do think Dallas at the very least is going to make a game of it. Doncic, not Curry, is the best player on the floor. If his teammates can knock down a few 3's, they could definitely win this game. Give me the Mavs +7! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 204) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 204 in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Heat. I always like to look to the UNDER in a series when it's tied 2-2 going into a Game 5. It's not quite the same as a Game 7, but it has that feel to it, where both teams are pulling out all the stops to go up 3-2 in what is now a best of 3 series. 

We finally saw a defensive game in Game 4, after each of the first 3 games went OVER the total. The two combined for just 184 points in Game 4. I see no reason not to expect more of the same. Both teams are dealing with big injuries. Boston is likely without Smart and Heat could be playing without both Lowry and Herro. Either way, these two teams know how they want to defend the opposition. Give me the UNDER 204! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conf Finals (Game 4) MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs PK) 

I'll take my chances with the Mavs at a pick'em at home in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. This series might be over with Golden State up 3-0, but that doesn't mean Dallas isn't going to go down without a fight. 

Mavs really should have won Game 2 at Golden State, as they were up big before a 2nd half collapse. They also have to feel like they beat themselves in Game 3 with the inability of their role players like Finney-Smith, Bullock and Kleber to hit shots. Those 3 were a combined 2 for 17 from behind the 3-point line. Look for those guys to shoot a lot better and for the Mavs to find a way to win this game and at the least extend this thing to a Game 5 on Thursday. Give me the Mavs PK! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 4) MAX UNIT Top Play (Celtics -6.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the Celtics as a 6.5-point home favorite in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. This series has seen the Heat win Game 1 by 9, Boston win Game 2 by 25 and Miami take Game 3 by 6. 

Celtics couldn't have played much worse in Game 3 and still almost pulled it off. Boston got outscored 18-31 in the 1st period and fell behind by as many as 26 in the 1st half. Celtics were able to make a game of it, despite getting next to nothing out of Tatum and them having an uncharacteristic 23 turnovers. 

The other big thing is the health of Miami. Jimmy Butler left in the 1st half and did not return with a knee injury. Tyler Herro also played 20 mins battling a groin injury. Heat's offense scored just 23, 25 and 21 over the final 3 quarters. Give me the Celtics -6.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs -2.5)

I'll take my chances with the Mavs -2.5 in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. It's do or die for Dallas after losing the first 2 games in Golden State. While they weren't all that competitive in Game 1, that was to be expected coming off that Game 7 against the Suns.

They really should have won Game 2, as they jumped out to a huge lead before falling apart in the 2nd Half. As tough as that loss was to swallow, I think it did give this Mavs team some confidence that they can hang with this Warriors team. 

Golden State has had a problem of just going thru the motions in these playoffs and I think they struggle to match the intensity of the Mavs in Game 3 on the road. Give me the Mavs -2.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 207.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. It's been a a lot higher scoring series so far. Both Game 1 and Game 2 went OVER the total. They went for 225 with a total of 203.5 in Game 1 and for 229 with a total of 206 in Game 2. 

Why go UNDER in Game 3? This to me is when the series really start to flip to the defenses having the edge. Both teams are now very familiar with what both teams want to do and the adjustments they make when they try to take something away. 

Not only that, but I think we see the defense turned up a notch anytime a series is tied. Both teams are going to be extremely motivated to take a 2-1 series lead. We finally get the defensive showdown we thought we would see from the start. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conf Finals (Game 2) MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors -6) 

We cashed on the Warriors in Game 1 and will fire right back with Golden State at -6 in Game 2. I'm a huge Doncic fan and I expect him to play better than he did in Game 1. I just don't think he's going to get enough help from his role players on the road to keep this close. Doncic could score 40+ and the Mavs could still lose by double-digits. Golden State has been the best team in the West when healthy and I really don't see this series going all that long. Give me the Warriors -6! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 208)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 208 in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of people were on the UNDER in Game 1 and got burned as that went well past the total of 203.5 with the game finishing at 225. 

We cashed the Heat -1.5 in that one, but had I been forced to play the total I would have leaned to the OVER. I just didn't think Boston would be at their best defensively coming off back-to-back elimination wins with just one day off from their Game 7 win against the Bucks. Not only that, but they were without two of their better defenders in Marcus Smart and Al Horford. 

Now it's time to look to the UNDER with the books jumping this total up to 208. Boston should be much better defensively in Game 2. While Horford is still out, Smart has been upgraded to probable. Having the DPOY on the floor is a big deal. It's also going to help having seen what Miami wants to do offensively. Plus, it's unlikely the Heat play as well offensively (shot 49% from the field and got 41 points from Jimmy Butler). Give me the UNDER 208! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conference Finals MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors -4.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Warriors as a 4.5-point home favorite in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State should be a bigger favorite here. Not only are the Warriors the better team, but this is a really tough spot for the Mavs, who are coming off back-to-back wins in elimination games against the Suns.

Very similar scenario to what we saw last night in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Celtics just ran out of gas and just didn't have that killer instinct on the defensive side as they did avoiding elimination in Games 6 and 7 vs the Bucks. Warriors haven't played in 4 days and are a perfect 6-0 at home in the playoffs so far. Give me Golden State -4.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conference Finals MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat -1.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Heat as a slim -1.5 home favorite against the Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. I think Miami continues to get disrespected. Most are picking the Celtics in this series, despite the fact that the Heat, the No. 1 seed in the East, has done exactly what they are suppose to do so far in the playoffs. Miami beat the Hawks in 5 in the 1st round and just disposed of the 76ers in 6 to get here. 

All 3 of their playoffs losses have come on the road. They are 6-0 at home and just one of those wins at home came by fewer than 9 points. The other big thing besides homecourt is the Celtics figure to have a bit of a letdown here. Boston just won back-to-back elimination games, with the Game 7 clincher against the Bucks coming just 2 days ago. Give me the Heat -1.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -2) 

I will gladly take my chances with the 76ers as a slim 2-point home favorite in Game 6 against the Heat. This series has been dominated by the home team. The home team has won and covered each of the 5 games up to this point and most of them have been blowouts. The smallest margin of victory so far is 8-points. 

It's just like the role players and even the stars are just playing at a different level at home compared to on the road. I see no reason to think that trend won't continue in Game 6. No question the 76ers will be the more motivated team facing elimination. Miami could struggle to find that killer instinct coming off a 35-point win and knowing they got Game 7 at home. Give me the 76ers -2! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 214.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 214.5 in Game 5 between the Celtics and Bucks. I always lean UNDER in Game 5 when a series is tied 2-2, as it just has that Game 7 feel to it with both teams desperately wanting to get a win to take control of the series. We saw the UNDER cash in this spot in both games last night. 

The two teams did go OVER the total in Game 4, but note that was the first time this entire postseason that a game involving the Bucks finished OVER the total. UNDER is 8-1. I just think that given what's at stake, it's going to be hard for both teams to get to 100 points and I wouldn't be shocked if neither team did. Give me the UNDER 214.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat -3) 

I will gladly take my chances with Miami as a mere 3-point home favorite in Game 5. Philly got Embiid back in Game 3 at home and were able to feed off his energy in a 99-79 win. In Game 4, the Heat just couldn't buy an outside shot (7 of 35, 20%), while James Harden caught fire. Maybe that was a turning point for Harden. I don't think it was. I have zero faith in him being anything close to that same guy in Game 5. 

I see a much more focused and energized Miami team on their home floor and you have to wonder if there won't be a little bit of letdown for the 76ers. Philly's backs were firmly against the wall. They lose either of those games at home and this series was all but over. Either way, I just feel the Heat are the better team and this is just too good a price to pass up. Give me Miami -3! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1.5)

I will gladly take my chances with the Suns as a slim -1.5 road favorite in Game 4 of their Western Conference Semifinal matchup with the Mavs. After dominating the first two games at home to take a 2-0 lead, Dallas responded with a 103-94 win in Game 3. Not a big surprise (I was on the Mavs) given the situation. 

Suns got a little complacent after those first two games and the Mavs put everything on the line with their backs against the wall. I still think Phoenix is hands down the better team. In Game 3, Chris Paul and Devin Booker only combined for 30 points and had a combined 12 turnovers. Yet the Suns only lost by 9. My money is on the Sun to bounce back with a much better showing this afternoon. Give me Phoenix -1.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 213)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 213 in Game 3 between the Bucks and Celtics. The UNDER has cashed in each of the first two games of this series and is now a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoff games. 

These are two of the best defensive teams in the league. With the series tied at 1-1, you got to think both of these teams are going to be locked in on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind we saw both teams shoot close to 47% in Game 2 and yet they still only combined for 195 points. I've said it in each of the first two games. It's going to be a struggle for both teams to hit that 100 point mark. Give me the UNDER 213! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs PK) 

I'll take my chances with the Mavs at a pick'em at home in Game 3 against the Suns. Most will just assume Phoenix will keep rolling after watching them win and cover both games on their home floor to start the series. 

I don't think that will be the case. Dallas has shown they can hang around with this team for a good portion of the game. They just haven't got any help from their role players. It's been all Doncic. I don't think the Suns are going to have an answer for Doncic and with the Mavs being at home for Game 3, I think the role players finally show up and carry this team to a win. Give m Dallas PK! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Celtics -4.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with Boston laying the 4.5 in Game 2. The Celtics got a big wake-up call in Game 1. I know they aren't taking games off in the playoffs, but you have to wonder if they were as locked in as they should have been after sweeping the Nets in the 1st Round and Milwaukee being without one of their better players in Middleton. 

It just wasn't a good offensive game-plan for Boston, who jacked up 50+ 3-pointers. Look for them to attack more. I also though the defense played pretty well in the loss and should be even more locked in with this essentially being a must win down 0-1 at home. Give me the Celtics -4.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 209)

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER at 209 in Game 1 between the 76ers and Heat. Two big names for both sides will be out of this one. Joel Embiid is out until at least Game 3 and Kyle Lowry will miss the game for Miami. 

Embiid is an absolute massive blow to the 76ers, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I just don't see the likes of Harden/Maxey/Harris having a lot of success against this Miami defense. There's going to be no easy buckets for Philly. 

Embiid is also a big part of the 76ers' defense, but they can still be good on that side without him. It also helps them that the Lowry, Miami's floor general, won't be on the floor. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 209! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Round 2 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 218) 

I absolutely love the UNDER at 218 in Game 1 of the Celtics/Bucks series. I think these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The transformation that Boston has had defensively from the start of the year to now is pretty remarkable.

That defense just made KD look like an average player in their sweep of the Nets in the first round. Now they face a Bucks team down one of their top scorers in Middleton.

Milwaukee might not be on the Celtics level defensively, but they aren't far behind. The Bucks defense dominated a pretty good Bulls offense in the first round. It will be much harder against Boston, but they are up to the task. Getting to 100 points will be a struggle for both sides. Give me the UNDER 218! 

Confidence Rating: 9 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raptors +8)

I'll take my chances with the Raptors as a 8-point dog against the 76ers in Game 5. I'm actually shocked the line is this high. Toronto may have to go without Fred VanVleet, but they won Game 4 with him playing just 15 minutes and scoring 5 points. 

With rookie Scottie Barnes back from injury and Gary Trent Jr. back to playing at a high level, Raptors got more than enough fire-power here to not just cover, but win the game outright. Especially with Embiid clearly playing at less than 100%. Give me the Raptors +8

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money PLAY OF THE WEEK (Raptors +3.5) 

I absolutely love the Raptors as a 3.5-point home dog against the 76ers in Game 4. Philly may be up 3-0 in the series and almost a lock to advance to the next round, but it's a lot harder than people think to close out a series on the road. Toronto is going to do everything in their power to win this game. 

Even though no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, it doesn't mean the Raptors aren't thinking they can be the first team to pull off the feat. There's also reason for Toronto to be optimistic they can turn this around, as they are set to get back one of their best players in Scottie Barnes, who missed both Game 2 and Game 3. Even if he doesn't play, I still think Toronto find a way to send this thing back to Philly for Game 5. Give me the Raptors +3.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bucks -2)

I will gladly lay the 2-points with the Bucks in Game 3 at Chicago. I just think too much is being made of the Middleton injury. He's a great player and they need him if they want to repeat, but they got more than enough talent to beat this Bulls team. 

Chicago just couldn't miss in Game 2. They shot 49.4% from the field and 48% from behind the 3-point line. That's after they shot 32.3% from the field and 18.9% from deep in Game 1. I expect a much better defensive effort from Milwaukee and offensively the Bulls still don't have any answers for the size of the Bucks. Give me Milwaukee -2! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies -1) 

I have cashed in each of the first two games in this series. I grabbed the Timberwolves +6.5 in Game 1 and then cashed with Memphis -6.5 in Game 2. It's really went exactly as I expected with Minnesota feeding off that play-in win in Game 1, while also catching the Grizzlies a bit flat. Memphis didn't just answer with a win in Game 2, they won going away 124-96. 

I just think Memphis needed that wake-up call to get the juices going and I don't see them taking any different approach in Game 3. Their mission is to take back home court and I just think they are by far away the better team. It's been a great run for Minnesota, but they are getting way too much love with this line at basically a pick'em. Give me the Grizzlies -1! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

**TOP PLAY** NBA Playoffs Rd 1 VEGAS INSIDER 

I'll gladly take 6.5 points with the Timberwolves in Game 1 of their 1st round series with the Grizzlies. I'm not giving Minnesota much of a chance in the series, but I do think the scenario here gives them a shot at stealing Game 1. 

Minnesota has all the confidence in the world after their play-in win over the Clippers, especially given how they were able to pull that game out with Towns scoring just 11 points on 3 of 11 shooting and fouling out midway thru the 4th quarter. 

Grizzlies haven't played a real meaningful game in quite some time, as they were pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed weeks ago. A little bit of rust and not really feeling threatened by this Timberwolves team could open the door here for Minnesota. Give me the Timberwolves +6.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Cavs +2.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with Cleveland catching 2.5 at home against the Hawks in Friday's winner take all for the No. 8 seed in the playoffs. The Cavs are being extremely disrespected here as a home dog. Don't overreact to the Hawks blowout win at HOME against the Hornets. Same thing with Cleveland's ugly loss to the Nets. Atlanta is not the same team on the road and the Cavs should play much better at home. Hawks are also not anywhere close to the same level as Brooklyn. Even bigger plus here would be if Jarrett Allen gives it a go. Either way, I like Cleveland to win this game. Give me the Cavs +2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 236) 

We saw both play-in games last night go UNDER the total. The Clippers/Wolves only combined for 213 with a total of 231. The Nets/Cavs did come close with 223 and a total of 227, but that was with a 65-point 4th quarter. 

That's just a prime example of how much better the defense gets in the postseason. That was with neither of those teams being eliminated with a loss. Tonight it's win or go home for these 9/10 matchups. 

As good as these two offenses are and how both can struggle defensively at times, the total shouldn't be in the high 230s! Give me the UNDER 236! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets +2.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Hornets at +2.5 on the road against the Hornets. With the Raptors win over the 76ers last night, Toronto is now 2 in front of the Bulls with 2 to play for the No. 5 seed. For Chicago to get out of the No. 6, they not only need to win out, but they need the Raptors to lose to the Rockets AND Knicks in their last two. 

Simply put, there's no real incentive for the Bulls to play hard and have your star players play a ton of minutes. Charlotte is in the playoffs, but these last two games mean something. Right now the Hornets are sitting at No. 10, but are just 1 back of the Hawks and Nets, who are tied for No. 7. I have to think they are motivated here. Give me the Hornets +2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers +1.5) 

I'll take my chances with the 76ers as a 1.5-point dog against the Raptors. Toronto has been playing great down the stretch, but we did just see them lose at home on Sunday to the Heat 109-114 as a 5-point favorite. Simply put, this is too good a price to pass up on Philly. 

Plenty of incentive here for the 76ers, who will go into this game tied with Milwaukee for the third best record in the East. They are also just 1/2-game back of No. 2 seed Boston. With the Bucks facing off against the Celtics on Thursday, Philly can move into at worst the No. 3 with a win. 

Philly also comes in with some momentum, as they have won 3 straight. Toronto has also not shot the ball well in each of their last 3 games and 4 of their last 5 (shot 44% or worse from the field). Give me the 76ers +1.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -10)

I'll gladly take my chances with the Hawks as a 10-point home favorite against the Wizards. I think the fact that the Wizards just beat the Timberwolves last night 132-114 as a 12.5-point dog, has created some value with Atlanta in this spot. 

Clearly Minnesota didn't come to play for them to lose by that many on their home floor to a bad team like Washington. I'm not worried about Atlanta not showing up. Hawks are off a humbling 10-point loss to the Raptors and are fighting to get into that 7/8 playoff matchup. 

This is a different Hawks team on their home floor and a team that overall has been playing great basketball for weeks now. When these two played on Mar. 4, Hawks won 117-114 in Washington. They won that game, despite getting out shot 42% to 54%. Atlanta haw shot 48% on the season at home this year. Give me the Hawks -10! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raptors -4) 

I'll take my chances with Toronto laying just 4-points at home against the Hawks. I just think Atlanta is getting a little too much respect coming into this game. Hawks have won and covered 5 straight, the biggest of those wins coming last time out against the Nets. 

As good as Atlanta has been playing, they are not a team that you can trust on the road against a top tier opponent. Toronto last their last game at home to the Heat, but have been playing some of their best ball all season down the stretch. Raptors are 11-3 in their last 14 games. I just don't think it's asking a lot for Toronto to cover the small number. Give me the Raptors -4! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Cavs +5)

Give me Cleveland as a 5-point home dog against the 76ers. I've been fading the Cavs quite a bit down the stretch with Mobley and Allen both sidelined. While not having those two is still a concern, the price here is too good to pass up. 

Philly absolutely destroyed the Hornets 144-114 at home on Saturday to snap a 3-game skid. Not surprising to see them come out fired up in that spot. I don't know if they will have that same energy on the road playing on no rest. 

Philly is just 2.5-games back of Miami for the No. 1 seed, but there's just not enough games and they got to leapfrog two other teams (Bucks/Celtics) in the process. They know that and actually feel like they could decide to give a guy like Embiid a night off with the playoffs looming. 

Cavs will also be playing on no rest, but this one means a lot more to them. With Cleveland's win and the Bulls loss on Saturday, Cavs are just 2-back of Chicago for the No. 6 spot and getting out of the play-in games. I think it makes them a live dog here. Give me Cleveland +5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE WEEK (Nuggets -2.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Nuggets as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Timberwolves. Minnesota has lost 4 of their last 5. They have started out their current 4-game road trip with a 112-134 loss at Boston and a 102-125 loss at Toronto. Nuggets have won 4 of their last 5 and come in having won 3 straight. 

Denver should be plenty motivated here. They are currently No. 6 in the West and 3 games ahead of the T-Wolves at No. 7. If they win here they all but clinch the No. 6 and avoid any chance of the play-in. They can also still move up. They are really tied for 5th with Utah at the moment, two games back of the Mavs at No. 3. Give me the Nuggets -2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Clippers. LA is getting way too much respect in this one. Yes. The Clippers just got back Paul George and won his first game back 121-115 at home against the Jazz, but let's not ignore the fact that they were down by as many as 25 in that game. 

It also takes a lot out of a team after rallying from that many down. Add in the travel to Chicago on just 1 day of rest and a game on deck tomorrow against at the Bucks. Could be really tough for LA to show up in the right mindset for this game. Keep in mind the Clippers are all but locked into the No. 8 seed, as they are 5.5 back of No. 7 Minnesota and 4.5 in front of No. 9 New Orleans. 

Bulls need this one a lot more, as they still have some work to do to avoid the play-in games. They are sitting at No. 5, tied with the Raptors, two games in front of the Cavs. Bulls are also a really good home team. They are 26-10 at the United Center and 20-8 ATS as a home favorite. Give me the Bulls -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 212.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 212.5 in Wednesday's non-conference matchup between the Mavs and Cavs. I think it's going to be tough for Cleveland to stop the Mavs with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The defense has not been good since Allen went out and now they are really behind the 8-ball on that side of the ball with Mobley out. 

As for the Mavs, I don't think they are going to have enough in the tank to be anywhere close to their best on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas hosted the Jazz on Sunday and then hosted the Lakers last night. Mavs are also sitting good in the standings, at 4th place in the West, 2 games in front of the Jazz and Nuggets. Easy spot for them to just go through the motions defensively. Give me the OVER 212.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 232) 

I love the UNDER 232 in Tuesday's Eastern Conference showdown between the Bucks and 76ers. This feels like a game where both of these teams are going to bring it. Both of these teams think they are the team to beat in the East and both are just 1-game back of the Heat for the No. 1 seed. 

You also got both of these teams not just coming off a loss, but coming off a game where they didn't play well. Milwaukee got steamrolled by 25 at Memphis on Saturday and the 76ers lost by 10 at Phoenix. 

UNDER is 5-0 in Philly's last 5 as a home favorite and 8-1 in their last 9 at home with a total of 22 or more. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Bucks last 10 off 2 days of rest, 8-3 in their last 11 as a dog and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Give me the UNDER 232! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -7) 

I'll take my chances with Atlanta as a 7-point road favorite against the Pacers. The Hawks are a very comfortable 4.5-games in front of the Knicks for the 10th and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. However, with New York having won 3 straight, I see Atlanta being extremely motivated until they clinch. 

Not only does Atlanta have something to play for, but they are facing a Pacers team that seems to have lost their fight. Indiana lost by 30 at Memphis on Thursday and then by 40 at Toronto on Saturday. They just don't have enough guys healthy to be competitive. This is one the Hawks should win rather easily. Give me Atlanta -7! 

50* (NBA) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Pistons +5.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Pistons as a 5.5-point home dog against the Hawks. Detroit finally failed to cover a game, as they lost 115-119 at home to the Blazers as a 10-point favorite. Prior to that the Pistons had covered 14 straight. No reason to jump off the ship after them not playing their best against a really bad team. 

This team clearly is motivated to finish strong and the Hawks are a team they should get up for, especially at home. On the flip side, Atlanta just played a big game at New York against the Knicks last night. A game that all but locked them into at worst a play-in game. Could see them being really flat for this one. Give me the Pistons +5.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls +7.5) 

I'll take my chances with Chicago catching 7.5 on the road against the Bucks. Chicago will be on a back-to-back, but are coming off a stress-free 113-99 win over the Raptors on Monday. Bulls are still waiting on the return of Lonzo Ball, but have recently got back Caruso and Pat Williams. Two guys that can make a big difference for this team. 

I also think that the Bulls are really searching for a win against a top tier team, as they haven't exactly performed well against those caliber a teams this year. Bucks are kind of just going through the motions to close out the season. For them it's just making sure they are healthy going into the playoffs. They won't have Khris Middleton tonight, which is a big loss for them and certainly big enough that Milwaukee shouldn't be laying this many points. Give me the Bulls +7.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 215.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 215.5 in Monday's big Eastern Conference showdown between the Heat and 76ers. It not going to be playoff intensity, but I expect both teams to really be up for this game. This is Philly's last crack at catching the Heat for the No. 1 seed, as they are 3.5-back with just 11 games left for both teams.

Miami still has to hold of the Bucks, but would pretty much secure the No. 2 with a win. I also think there's also a little more incentive for the Heat with this being their first crack at Philly since they added James Harden. 

I just see this being a defensive game. Both these teams rank in the bottom 10 in pace and are very strong defensively. They have played 3 times this season and the most they have combined for is 207 with 2 games failing to reach 200. Give me the UNDER 215.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets -1.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Charlotte as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the Hawks. Big time value here with the Hornets at home. Charlotte is just 6-13 in their last 13 games, but a lot of that has to do with a brutal stretch in their schedule and them battling some injuries. Hornets have won their last two behind big time offensive games, scoring 142 at New Orleans and 134 at OKC. 

No reason to expect them to slow down at home against a Hawks team that has been awful on the road and have really struggled defensively of late. Atlanta is just 12-21 on the road this season and have allowed 116.8 ppg on 49.3% shooting over their last 5 games. Give me the Hornets -1.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with Chicago as a 3.5-point road favorite against the Kings on Monday. The Bulls will probably be without Zach LaVine for this one, which I think is definitely playing into the favorable number for Chicago in this matchup. 

While LaVine is a big piece of the Bulls lineup, I don't think it's going to hurt Chicago all that much against a Kings team that is playing little to no defense. Sacramento has allowed each of their last 12 opponents to shoot 46% or better from the floor with 7 of the 12 hitting 50% or better. 

This is also a Chicago team that has feasted on bad teams of late, covering 7 of their last 10 against a team with a losing record. Bulls are also 35-16-1 ATS last 52 as a favorite and 17-5 ATS last 22 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Give me Chicago -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Rockets +6) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Houston as a 6-point road dog against the Pelicans. I get the Rockets aren't a very good team, but no way should New Orleans be laying this big a number with both C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram out of the lineup.

Neither played in their last game and they got annihilated at home by a struggling Hornets team, giving up over 140 points in the process. I not only think Houston can keep it within the number, but I give them a great shot here of winning this game outright. Give me the Rockets +6! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -2.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Brooklyn as a slim 2.5-point road favorite against the Hornets. I get the Nets have a monster game on deck Thursday night in Philly against their old teammate in James Harden, but I don't think it's going to be enough to deter them from getting a win in Charlotte. 

Brooklyn has lost 4 straight and are now just 3-17 over their last 20 games. They have went from fighting for the No. 1 seed in the East, to being just 2-games ahead of 11th place Washington and out of the playoffs completely. I just think the Nets are desperate for a win and I just don't see Durant and Irving letting them lose this one against an inferior team in the Hornets. Give me Brooklyn -2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Pistons +7.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Pistons as a 7.5-point home dog against the Hawks. Detroit is playing their best basketball arguably of the entire season. The Pistons have won 5 of their last 7 games outright and are a perfect 7-0 ATS during this run. a

The key here is that because Detroit was so bad prior to this run, the public still has a hard time trusting this team with their money and because of that the books are going to be slow to adjust the numbers on them. 

I just can't help myself but take the 7.5 in a game I think they can win outright. The Hawks are just a mediocre team. They are 31-32 overall and a mere 12-19 SU and 10-21 ATS on the road this season. 

Hawks did just win 117-114 at Washington in their last game, but failed to cover as a 4.5-point favorite. Atlanta is 11-22 ATS last 2 seasons off a road win, 3-11 ATS last 14 in road games after a road game and 1-8 ATS last 9 road games after winning 2 of their last 3 games. Give me the Pistons +7.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Cavs -4.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Cavs as a 4.5 point favorite against the Raptors. Cleveland is really going to be motivated to get a win here after losing 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. They really played well in their last game at Philly before giving up the lead late and losing 119-125. 

This just feels like the perfect spot for them to get back on track against a Raptors team that also hasn't been playing well. Toronto may or may not get back Fred VanVleet back, but he's likely not to be at full strength his first game back. Raptors are also still without OG Anunoby, who is a bigger piece to the puzzle than most think. Give me the Cavs -4.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Pacers -1) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Pacers as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Magic. We backed the Pacers in their 128-107 win at home against the Celtics as a 9.5-point dog on Sunday. I stayed clear of backing Indiana in their next game at Orlando and they lost that one 103-119. 

Big reason we stayed away was it came on no rest and the Magic were playing on a full 2 days of rest. Now we get to back the Pacers at basically the same price in a much better spot. Not only is the rest even, but the motivation is clearly with Indiana playing with revenge on such short notice. Give me the Pacers -1! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raptors -3.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Raptors as a 3.5-point road favorite at Brooklyn. The Nets are coming off that big 126-123 upset win at Milwaukee as a 9.5-point underdog. That's just the difference having Kyrie Irving in the lineup, as he scored 38 points. Without him they lost 106-129 at home to the Celtics two days earlier. 

With this game back in Brooklyn, that means Irving is out and with that I think you got to go big on Toronto in this one. We should be getting a big effort here from the Raptors, who got embarrassed in their first two games back from the All-Star break, losing by 32 at Charlotte Friday and by 27 at Atlanta on Saturday. 

You also got to think about what the books are saying about this Brooklyn team without Kyrie for them to be a dog at home against a team that's been outscored by a combined 59 points in their last two games. Give me the Raptors -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Pacers +8.5) 

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Pacers as a 8.5-point home dog against the Celtics. Boston comes in having won 11 of their last 12, which I believe has them overvalued against a Pacers team no one is high on right now. 

The key here is the spot. The Celtics will not only being playing the second of a back-to-back on the road, it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights since the NBA returned from the All-Star break. Indiana's only game since the return from the break was Friday's home game against OKC. 

While the Pacers lost that game, they were sharp offensively with 125 points on 49% shooting. I think they can surprise a tired Boston team and not only keep it close enough to cover, but win the game outright. Give me Indiana +8.5! 

50* (NBA) - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH (Pelicans +7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Pelicans as a 7.5-point road dog against the Suns. This just feels like a few too many for Phoenix to be laying in the second leg of a back-to-back coming out of the All-Star break, especially given that New Orleans is playing their first game out of the break. 

You also got to keep in mind that this is no longer a Suns team that has veteran Chris Paul to help them stay on task in these tough scheduling spots. They did win by 20 last night, but that was against OKC and it was only a 8-point game going into the 4th quarter. 

Pelicans lost 4 of 5 going into the All-Star break, but they did show some life during that stretch, especially on the offensive side of the ball. New Orleans shot 49% or better from the field in their last 4. Big part of that is the addition of C.J. McCollum. Not saying the Pelicans will win this one, but I like them to take it down to the wire. Give me New Orleans +7.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings +4.5) 

I love the value we are getting here with the Kings as a 4.5-point home dog against the Nuggets. I really liked what I saw out of Sacramento after they made the big trade with Indiana to bring in Sabonis. I also think they made a couple of under the radar moves acquiring the likes of Donte Divincenzo and Justin Holiday.

These guys combined with Fox and Barnes give them quite a potent offensive attack and the extra practice time over the All-Star break should really help them, especially with the communication on the defensive side of the ball. 

Nuggets are a good team and went into the break winning 5 of 6, but they are just 17-15 on the road this year and there's not a ton of incentive for Denver coming out of the break in this game, especially with a home game on deck against Sacramento on Saturday. Give me the Kings +4.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Pelicans +3) 

I really like the Pelicans as a 3-point home dog against the Mavs tonight. This just feels like the perfect spot to bet against Dallas, coming off that big 107-99 road win at Miami. Mavs are still just 14-13 on the road this year and for a team that has been playing really well of late, I think they could struggle to get up for this last game before the All-Star break. 

As for the Pelicans, this is a team that has been playing better of late. New Orleans is 5-3 over their last 8 game sand are 6-3 ATS over their last 9. They seem to be finding some chemistry with C.J. McCollum. I think they are going to be extremely motivated to win this game and it's not uncommon for Dallas to lay an egg against a lesser opponent. Mavs are just 9-21 ATS last 2 seasons vs teams that have won between 25% to 40% of their games. Give me the Pelicans +3! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -3) 

I'll take my chances with Sacramento laying just 3-points on the road against a depleted Brooklyn team. Durant won't be back until after the All-Star break, Irving can't play in home games and Simmons isn't ready from a conditioning standpoint to make his debut with his new team. That leaves the Nets with a bunch of role players and I just don't think they have enough to really compete. 

I also like what I've seen out of this Kings team since they added in Sabonis in that trade with the Pacers. He makes quite a trio with Barnes and Fox. All 5 starters scored 12 or more in their 123-110 win at Washington last time out. That's after they beat the Timberwolves 132-119 in Sabonis' debut with the team. Give me the Kings -3! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Celtics -5) 

I'll take my chances with Boston cashing in as a 5-point home favorite against the Nuggets on Friday. The Celtics have been playing some of their best basketball since the calendar shifted to 2022. Boston is 13-4 over their last 17 games and come into this one having won 6 straight. 

They have really dominated during this recent 6-game run, winning 5 of the 6 by 9 or more points. While the Nuggets are far from a pushover, I don't think it's asking a lot for them to win here by 6 or more. 

The biggest deter for me when it comes to Denver in this game, is starting point guard Monte Morris has been ruled out with a concussion. I see that as a big time loss, especially with how well the Celtics are playing on the defensive side of the ball. Give me Boston -5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 214.5) 

I really like the OVER 214.5 in Thursday's game between Los Angeles and Dallas. The Clippers have shown no interest in getting stops of late. LA gave up 137 at home to the Bucks on Sunday and then turned around and gave up 135 at Memphis on Tuesday. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field, with 3 of the last 4 eclipsing 51%. No surprise the OVER 7-1-1 in their last 4 games. 

I don't see that defense flipping a switch against a good Mavs team, especially with how well Luka Doncic is playing right now. Doncic is averaging 31.0 ppg, 11.8 apg and 9.0 rpg in 4 games this month. 

Dallas does have a good defense, but LA's not been held under 100 points since scoring 94 against the Spurs way back on Jan. 15. I think as long as the Clippers can get to the century mark, this think will easily go over the number. Give me the OVER 214.5! 

50* (NBA) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Knicks +7.5) 

I really like the value we are getting with the Knicks as a 7.5-point road dog against the Jazz on Monday. This just feels like a few to many for Utah to be laying. The Jazz have won two straight and are fresh off a 125-102 win at home against the Nets.

Thing is, that win came against a depleted Brooklyn team. Utah is still without their anchor inside in Rudy Gobert, they recently lost key reserve Joe Ingles to a season-ending injury and both Jordan Clarkson and Rudy Gay are questionable to play. 

I know the Knicks have lost 8 of their last 10, but it almost makes me like them more. It's getting to the point where it's becoming a bit do or die for New York. They did have a 21-point lead against the Lakers in their last game and that was with LeBron, AD and Westbrook all in the lineup for LA. 

Not saying they win this game, but I would be shocked if the Knicks didn't put up a fight in this one. Give me New York +7.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Cavs -5.5) 

I will lay the 5.5 with the Cavs at home against the short-handed Pacers on Sunday. While Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis are both showing up as questionable, both figure to be on a minutes restriction if they do get cleared to play. They will still be without Myles Turner and Isaiah Jackson and likely Goga Bitadze. 

The Pacers are really short-handed in the frontcourt and this Cavs team is probably the last team you want to face without any big men. Look for Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley to have a field day. There's also a chance that Cleveland gets back star point guard Darius Garland after he's sat out the last 3 games with back soreness. I just don't see the Pacers being all that competitive in this one. Indiana is just 6-20 on the season in road games. Give me the Cavs -5.5! 

50* (NBA) - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH (Hawks +2.5) 

I really like the Hawks to go into Toronto and get a win Friday night. Atlanta knocked off the Suns 124-115 last night and are now 8-1 in their last 9 games. Their work isn't done, as the Hawks still sit just 10th in the Eastern Conference at 25-26. 

This to me feels like a team that is really motivated to go into the All-Star break on a roll. I also love backing the Hawks at this price with Trae Young ballin. Young has scored 36 and 43 in his last two games against the Lakers and Suns. 

While both teams are in a bad scheduling spot, playing on no rest, I think it's a lot worse for the Raptors. Toronto has had quite the 5-game stretch. They played at Chicago, at Miami and at Atlanta before returning home to face the Heat and Bulls in rematches. They went 4-1, but I think they are going to be out of gas after last night's OT game against the Bulls. All 5 starters played 37+ minutes with 4 of the 5 playing 40+ mins. Give me the Hawks +2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raptors -3) 

I really like the value with the Raptors as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Bulls on Thursday. Toronto has won 3 straight and it just so happens their last loss was to Chicago back on Jan. 26. Love the revenge angle for the Raptors against a depleted Bulls team that is still without both Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. 

Toronto is 9-2 ATS last 11 after covering 3 of their last 4. They are 26-10 ATS off a win by 6 or less and 6-0 ATS last 3 seasons when off 2 straight wins by 6 or fewer. Give me the Raptors -3! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 224.5) 

This is an easy play on the UNDER at 224.5 in Wednesday's game between the Nuggets and Jazz. Utah is dealing with some serious injury problems right now. Already without arguably their two best players in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, the Jazz just lost their top reserve, Joe Ingles, to a season-ending injury. They could also be without Hassan Whiteside, who is questionable with a back injury. 

As for the Nuggets, they don't figure to be looking to push the pace in this one. Denver has to be running on fumes, as they will be playing on no rest after a game last night in Minnesota. It's also their 6th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

50* (NBA) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -1)

The Bulls are far from full strength right now, with Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball both out of the lineup, but I still think they got enough to go into San Antonio and get a win Friday night. Chicago still has 3 All-Star caliber players on the floor in LaVine, DeRozan and Vucevic. They also got an emerging rookie in Ayo Dosunmu. 

As for the Spurs, this is a team that just isn't that good and the books have been slow to adjust. San Antonio is a mere 4-13 SU over their last 17 games and are just 6-11 ATS during this run. 

While it's not the same as when DeRozan played his first game against the Raptors after spending all those years in Toronto, this one definitely has a little more meaning to it. It's DeRozan's first game against the Spurs since leaving San Antonio for Chicago in the offseason. 

I also think this is a hungry Bulls team. While they have won 2 straight, they had lost 6 of their previous 7 and are no longer the top dog in the Eastern Conference. Give me Chicago -1! 

50* (NBA) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Nuggets -2) 

This is basically the same line we cashed with the Lakers on the road at Brooklyn last night. I just don't understand why the Nets are getting so much respect when they don't have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving can't play at home. 

Nets have really been one of the best teams to fade for a while now. Brooklyn is just 4-11 ATS over their last 15 games. They just don't have enough offensive fire-power. Harden had a triple-double last night with 33 points, 12 rebound and 11 assists and they still lost by double-digits. Give me the Nuggets -2! 

50* (NBA) - Western Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH (Blazers +3) 

I love the Blazers as a 3-point home dog against the Timberwolves. Portland should not be a dog in this matchup. The books just keep undervaluing the Blazers with Lillard out of the lineup. As great as Lillard is, his absence has really been negated by the outstanding play of Anfernee Simmons and this offense has gotten even better here recently with the return of CJ McCollum. 

Portland has gone 6-2 ATS over their last 8 games and 5 of those covers have come in games where they won outright as a dog. 

As for the Timberwolves, I love going against them on the road after a massive home win over the Nets. Minnesota has to be sick of traveling. This will be there 10th road game in their last 13 games. It's also a huge lookahead/sandwich spot, as they got a road game at Golden State on Thursday. Give me the Blazers +3! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Pelicans -2.5) 

Love the Pelicans as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against the Pacers. New Orleans won't have Brandon Ingram and Devonte Graham is questionable, but that's nothing in comparison to the injury report for Indiana. 

The Pacers will for sure be without Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. Caris LeVert is also questionable to play. While Indiana's backups have performed well in the last few games, they did so against some of the best teams. Their last 3 games were at Lakers, at Warriors and at Suns. 

This is going to be Indiana's 5th and final game of a 5-game road trip and it's their 4th road game in the last 6 days. I just don't think the Pacers are going to have enough gas to make a game of this. 

Note that Graham was questionable with the same injury in the Pelicans last game and he ended up playing, so there's a good chance he suits up. New Orleans is also playing here on a full 3 days of rest. Give me the Pelicans -2.5! 

50* (NBA) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Blazers +8.5) 

I will gladly take the 8.5-points with the Blazers. I feel like a broken record, but until the books make the proper adjustments on Portland I'm going to keep backing them. The loss of Lillard hasn't been an issue for the Blazers, as Anfernee Simmons continues to shine in his absence. Simmons is averaging 25.7 ppg, and 7.4 apg in the month of January and is shooting lights out from 3. Not only is he hitting 43.3% from deep, he's averaging 4.7 made 3-pointers a game. 

Toronto is a good team, but are not good enough that they should be close to a double-digit favorite against a team with this much talent. Especially in this spot. Raptors could be light on fuel for this one, as they just finished up a 5-game road trip on Friday at Washington. Give me the Blazers +8.5! 

50* (NBA) - Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat +1.5) 

I don't think the Heat should be a dog in Friday's division game at Atlanta. The Hawks come in off a a couple of nice wins, beating the Bucks 121-114 at home on Monday and the Timberwolves 134-122 on Wednesday. 

The problem for Atlanta is health. They basically used an 8-man rotation (all 5 starters played 33+ mins last game) and could be losing their best bench player in Danilo Gallinari, who is questionable with an ankle injury. 

Miami won't have Kyle Lowry or Tyler Herro, but this a very deep Heat team that just recently got back their two big guns in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Miami has also been playing some great basketball for a long stretch here. They are 13-4 over their last 17 and have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8. 

Miami has also been at their best in division games. They are 8-1 vs division opponents, outscoring the opposition by 11.2 ppg. Atlanta just doesn't play good enough defense for them to be favored against a team like the Heat. Give me Miami +1.5!