50* NCAAF 'SEC' TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Ole Miss/Alabama OVER 70) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 70 in Saturday's big SEC clash between Ole Miss and Alabama. For starters, these two teams have combined for at least 69 points in each of the last 3 meetings. Last time they played in Oxford, Alabama won 48-43 in a game that had a total of just 53. I know 70 points is a lot, but I just have a hard time seeing these two not reaching that mark.

This isn’t your typical Alabama offense that we have seen in the past under Nick Saban. Sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the most gifted signal-caller Saban has had in his decade-plus run at Alabama. His ability to shred opposing secondaries, makes this unit almost impossible to stop. You still can’t stop the Crimson Tide from running the football, but if you load the box Tagovailoa is going to make you pay.

There might be some SEC teams that can hold them in check to some degree, but I certainly don’t think one of those is Ole Miss. The Rebels gave up 34.6 ppg last year and don’t look all that improved in 2018. They gave up 486 yards to Texas Tech in their opener and the Red Raiders had to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and 5 of their top 6 pass catchers. They followed that up by allowing 41 points and 629 yards to an FCS school.

I think Alabama has a great shot here of scoring 50 or more points and that means we need just a little bit of help from the Rebels to push this over the total. I know the Crimson Tide defense has looked great in their first two games, but there’s a ton of talent on the Ole Miss offense. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has been excellent and they got playmakers at both running back and receiver. I think they can have some success against an inexperienced Alabama defense that only returned 3 starers and who will be playing their first true road game.

OVER is 11-1 in the Rebels last 12 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 against a conference opponent. OVER is also 5-0 in Alabama’s last 5 games played in the month of September. Take the OVER 70.

40* NCAAF FRIDAY OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 60) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER. One of the big reasons that the Tigers offense struggled against Navy last week is the game was play in sloppy conditions with a steady rain making it less than ideal for Memphis' high-powered passing attack. Those conditions certainly played a part in the Tigers turning it over 4 times.

Memphis' offense has to feel like they gave that game away and I look for them to come out looking to lay it on the Panthers. I just don't see Georgia State being able to do anything to stop them. The Panthers were torched by NC State's Ryan Finley this past Saturday, as Finley went 31 of 38 for 370 yards. They also let Kennesaw State's Chandler Burks average 10.6 yards/attempt in their near loss to the Owls at home in Week 1.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if Memphis put up 50+ points, which is why I would have to side with them on the spread. However, I do think Georgia State is going to be able to put some points on the board. The Panthers appear to have found something in JUCO quarterback transfer Dan Ellington, who has completed 63% of his attempts for 381 yards with a 3-0 TD-INT ratio.

I know the Memphis defense has looked great the first two games, but one was against a bad Mercer team and the other was against the one-dimensional Navy option offense. Playing on short rest and off that emotional loss, I think the defense could come out flat. I think if we can get a mere 20-points from Georgia State, this one will easily eclipse the mark.

OVER is 7-1 in the Tigers' last 8 non-conference games, 20-8 in their last 28 games at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team from the Sun Belt. Give me the OVER! 

50* NFL WEEK 1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 48) 

I'll likely be on a lot of OVERs in Chiefs' games this year. I think Kansas City's offense is going to light the NFL on fire with Mahomes and all those playmakers at his disposal. The key here is that they are going to be pressed into scoring a lot, because the defense could be a weakness, especially with Eric Berry sidelined (doubtful). KC isn't the only team in this fight that will be missing an elite defensive player. Joey Bosa is not going to play for the Chargers, who are already without defensive tackle Corey Liuget, as he serves a 4-game suspension. I look for both teams to move it up and down the field with a lot of big plays through the air that lead to quick scores and this one flying over the total. Give me the OVER 48! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 64.5) 

Syracuse likes to push the tempo (Babers calls the plays and comes from Baylor’s uptempo attack under Art Briles) and should have their best offense in quite some time. Not only do the Orange get Dungey back, but they return their top 3 rushers, and 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line.

I think Western Michigan is going to have a really tough time slowing that offense down. The Broncos lose all 3 starters at linebacker (5 of 7 overall on the front 7) and star corner Darius Phillips.

Western Michigan is going to have no choice here but to try and go score for score with Syracuse and I think they are definitely capable of doing that. The Broncos have 8 starters back with most of their key pieces back and some talented guys ready to step in for those that departed. They put up 31 last year at USC in the opener last year and I think they eclipse that mark in this one.

The key here is Syracuse also lost a lot from their defense. The Orange lost their top 4 linebackers from last year and have just one career start on the roster at the position. In total, 5 of their top 7 tacklers are gone. Keep in mind this is a team that allowed 35.6 ppg and 485 ypg on the road last year and are just 4-14 in true road openers.

OVER is 10-2 in the Broncos last 12 home games and 12-2 in their last 14 at home in the first month of the season. Give me the OVER 64.5! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 52.5)

This might seem like a high total given the two teams only combined for 36 points in last year’s meeting at Northwestern, which the Wildcats won 23-13. However, that final was a bit misleading, as Purdue only scored 13 points, despite racking up 438 total yards. Northwestern had 14 points in the 1st quarter, but had to settle for 3 field goals the rest of the way. You also have to factor in that game was played in November, when scoring is a lot tougher given the cold conditions.

I also think Purdue games are going to be a lot more high-scoring this year. While the offense was better in Brohm’s first season, it didn’t improve as much as people expected given Brohm’s offensive background. A lot of that had to do with the players learning a new system and only 5 starters returning from 2016. Purdue was also able to rely on their defense to win games, so they didn’t have to force things offensively.

That’s not going to be the case this year. The Boilermakers figure to take a big step back defensively after losing 9 of their top 12 tacklers. In order for them to win games, they are going to have to put up points and with the talent they have coming back (9 starters) they should average close to 30 ppg.

While we are still waiting for the official word on whether Thorson will be available to start for Northwestern, all signs point to him being ready to play, as he’s been practicing fully for a couple weeks now. With Thorson in the lineup, the Wildcats should be able to put up a big number here against this inexperienced Purdue defense.

OVER is 10-1 in Purdue’s last 11 home games as a favorite of 3-points or less and 11-3 in Northwestern’s last 14 Big Ten conference road games. Give me the OVER 52.5! 

40* NCAAF "WEEK ZERO" TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 46.5)

New Mexico State has 9 starters back from a defense that only gave up 29.7 ppg and 401 ypg last year. It continued a remarkable turnaround under defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. In his first year on the job (2016) he took over a defense that had just allowed 45 ppg and 522 ypg the previous year to only giving up 38.8 ppg and 497 ypg. With all the talent coming back, there’s no reason to think the numbers won’t continue to improve in 2018.

As for Wyoming, their defense carried them in 2017. The Cowboys went from giving up 34.1 ppg in 2016 to only allowing 17.5 ppg in 2017. Not only do they have 8 starters back on this side of the ball, but are loaded with juniors and seniors, making them one of the more experienced defenses in the country.

You also have to factor in the transition that both teams are going through at quarterback. Everyone knows the kind of talent Allen was. As for the Aggies, they got their own hole to fill at quarterback with the departure of Tyler Rogers. He was a difference maker for that offense in 2017. He completed 62% of his passes for more than 4,000 yards with a solid 27-18 TD-INT ratio. He also had 7 rushing touchdowns. Not only does New Mexico State lose Rogers, but they also lose their top wide out and dynamic running back.

Another factor here is coaching. I have a ton of respect for both Martin and Bohl. I’m confident both of these teams will be well prepared for this contest and wouldn’t be shocked if both sides failed to reach 20 points. Give me the UNDER 46.5!

40* OKLAHOMA/GEORGIA ROSE BOWL NO BRAINER (Under 61)

I think it's worth a shot here to take the UNDER 61 in Monday's New Year's semifinal game between Oklahoma and Georgia. I know Oklahoma put up some ridiculous offensive numbers this year, averaging 44.9 ppg and 583 yards/game, but let's not forget about what conference they play in. There's only a few teams in the Big 12 that play any defense and even those teams aren't great.  None of which are anywhere close to what Georgia brings on that side of the ball. 

The Bulldogs had one bad showing all season, giving up 40 on the road to Auburn, but that was clearly not a focus Georgia team (came into that game with big heads after being No. 1 and starting out 9-0). They proved that was a fluke by completely shutting down Auburn in the SEC Championship Game, holding them to 7-points and just 259 total yards. Add in the extra time to prepare and I think this defense is going to make life tough on Baker Mayfield and the Sooners attack. 

Keep in mind the closest defense in terms of talent that Oklahoma faced was Ohio State and while they beat the Buckeyes, they only scored 31 points. That game is also a good sign of what the Sooners defense is capable of, as they limited the Buckeyes to just 16 points and completely shutdown Ohio State's running game, limiting them to just 104 yards on 37 attempts. I'm not saying they will completely shutdown Georgia's rushing attack, but I think they play well on that side. I also think the Bulldogs are going to look to grind out possessions and help their defense by keeping them off the field. 

History is also on our side. UNDER is 7-1 in Oklahoma last 8 vs an SEC opponent, 7-1 in their last 8 neutral site games, 5-1 in their last 6 bowl games and 7-2 in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 20-7 in Georgia's last 27 vs a team with a winning record, 7-3 in their last 10 bowl games, and 6-2 in their last 8 neutral site games. Give me the UNDER 61! 

40* TEXAS BOWL BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Over 60.5) 

I think we are in store for a shootout tonight in the Texas Bowl between the Longhorns and Tigers. While Texas had one of the better defenses in the Big 12, they will be going up against arguably the hottest offense in the country to end the year in Missouri, who scored 45 or more points in each of their final 6 games. Keep in mind that Texas is down several key players on defense, including linebacker Malik Jefferson, defensive lineman Chris Nelson and two of their top defensive backs in DeShon Elliot and Holtin Hill. I just feel that's going to make it really hard for the Longhorns to keep this Missouri offense in check. 

On the flip side of this, Texas has a very capable offense and while they weren't as good as many expected in Tom Herman's first year, the extra practice time leading up to this game could have only helped them on that side of the ball. The bigger key here is that Missouri's defense is atrocious. The Tigers gave up 33.4 ppg and 476 ypg away from home this season and that was with playing a bunch of bad offensive teams. In their finale against Arkansas, who I don't think is as good as Texas offensively, they allowed the Razorbacks to put up 45 points and nearly 450 yards. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams scored 40+ in this game. Give me the OVER 60.5! 

40* NFL SATURDAY BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Under 41) 

First things first, conditions aren't going to be ideal for scoring in Baltimore on Saturday. While temperatures are expected to be a modest 60 or so degrees, it's going to be windy, with winds expected around 15 mph throughout. Not to mention a 50% chance of rain. That's definitely a plus, but I also think these two teams could struggle to eclipse 40 points in ideal conditions. 

Let's start with the Colts offense. I'm not quite sure how they are going to move the ball against this Ravens defense. Indy's offensive line is a mess. They lost their best lineman in center Ryan Kelly a couple weeks ago and won't have starting right tackle Denzelle Good for this one. The Ravens rank in the top 10 in sacks and in pass defense. They will force feed Frank Gore, but I don't know how much success they will have, as Baltimore is equally as good against the run. It would not surprise me the least if the Ravens pitched a shutout, though I'm sure Indy will find a way to put some points on the board, just not very many. Note they have scored 17 or fewer in 5 straight. 

I'm not just banking on the Colts not being able to score, but I'm counting on Indy's defense to play with some pride. If they don't, this will have a hard time staying under. With that said, I'll take my chances they come to play. This is a team knew their season was a lost cause with the Andrew Luck injury. This is just another chance for them to get a win and I love the fact that they are getting zero respect as a near two touchdown underdog. It's also worth noting the Colts have had a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. Baltimore's offense has been better, but there's no need for them to run up the score if things get out of hand, as they have bigger things in mind than just this game. Give me the UNDER 41! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 48.5) 

These two teams played in Week 12 at Atlanta and combined for 54 points with Fitzpatrick under center for the Bucs. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense did a lot of the heavy lifting in that one, scoring 34 points on over 500 yards of offense. Since that game Tampa Bay has combined for 46 with the Packers with Hundley at QB and 45 at home against the Lions with a banged up Stafford. Even with the home field edge in a prime time game, I don't think this Bucs defense is going to have an answer for this Falcons offensive attack, which is going to be ready to roll after playing two of the better defenses in the league the last two weeks in the Vikings and Saints. It's also worth noting that Winston is back in the lineup for the Bucs and has looked good outside of some turnovers and I expect him to have a big game here. I think we could see both teams eclipse 30-points in this one. Give me the OVER 48.5! 

40* LAS VEGAS BOWL TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 61)

The Ducks finished the year averaging a modest 36.7 ppg, which was the 18th best mark in the country. What gets overlooked is that they played 5 games without starting quarterback Justin Herbert. In the 5 games Herbert played in to start the season before getting hurt, Oregon averaged 49.6 ppg. In the 5 games he missed, they averaged 15 ppg and that was with a 41-point outburst against Utah. Herbert returned for the final two games and they scored 48 on Arizona and 69 against Oregon State. This isn’t just a good offense with Herbert, it’s one of the best in the nation.

I also want to point out that I don’t Taggert leaving is going to hurt the production of the offense. They aren’t going to change up anything on that side of the ball. Offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal has been named the new head coach. 

Boise State’s defense finished with great numbers, ranking 23rd in total defense (336.6 ypg) and 35th in points allowed (22.5 ppg), but they played a lot of bad offensive teams in the MWC. The best offense they faced in conference play was Colorado State and while they won the game, they gave up 52 to the Rams. This team also allowed 42 to Virginia and 47 to Washington State in their two step-up games outside of conference.

Oregon’s defense is greatly improved, but they still have their problems stopping the pass. The Ducks were a mere 76th vs the pass, allowing an average of 230.3 ypg though the air. The strength of the Boise State offense is their passing attack, which averaged 254.5 ypg (44th) behind quarterback Brett Rypien, who threw for just over 2,500 yards, completed 63.5% of his attempts and posted a 14-4 TD-INT ratio. The offense could also be forced to throw even more than they would like, as star running back Alexander Mattison is questionable to play. That would be a plus, as we don’t want Boise trying to eat up the clock on the ground.

I think there’s potential here for this to get well into the 70’s and possibly even higher, which makes this an easy play given where this total has been set. Give me the OVER 61!

40* BRONCOS/COLTS TNF TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 40.5) 

I think we are simply seeing a bit of an overreaction to the low-scoring games these two teams just played in. Denver’s defense was sensational against the Jets. Not only did the shutout New York, they limited the Jets to just 100 total yards and 6 first downs. The Colts on the other hand played in a game against the Bills where the two teams combined for a mere 20-points with 6 of those coming in overtime. Though that was in blizzard-like conditions so that's nothing to read into. 

Denver’s strong showing at home against the Jets didn’t surprise me. The Broncos had basically hit rock bottom the previous week in a 9-35 los at Miami. I expected them to come out and play one of their better games and they did just that. I just don’t think we are going to get that same kind of effort here on the road against the Colts. Not only is there little to get excited about with playing Indy, but it’s extremely difficult for teams to play up to their potential defensively in these Thursday night games. They simply don’t have enough time to recover with just a 3-day break.

Keep in mind that prior to last week’s shutout against the Jets, Denver’s opponents had scored 20 or more against them in 8 straight games. Not to mention the Broncos are giving up a staggering 30.5 ppg on the road this season. So while the Colts have been struggling to score, I think we see them have a decent showing here at home.

Same thing goes for the Denver offense, who should be able to build off last week’s strong showing against a wore down and not very good Colts defense. Indy is also a team that is completely out of the playoff picture and are going to try and get a lot more young guys on the field to evaluate for next year.

Let’s also not forget that this game is being played in perfect conditions with it being in a dome. That’s another big factor here that favors a high-scoring game. I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for these two teams to eclipse this number. Give me the OVER 40.5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48.5)

I think the value here is on the total and this one going under the mark of 48.5. These two teams just played two weeks ago in New England and combined for 52 points, but I think there's a big edge here for these two defenses having just played the opposing offense. Miami also is a much better defensive team at home and are catching a huge break with Gronkowski being suspended. Keep in mind it was the Patriots who did the heavy lifting in terms of the total in that game two weeks ago, as they had 35 points. The defense held Miami to just 17 points and I think we see the Dolphins struggle to eclipse that mark here. Give me the UNDER 48.5! 

50* NCAAF SEC CONF CHAMP GAME OF THE MONTH (Under 48.5)

As dominant as Auburn was in that first meeting against Georgia, I don’t love backing teams in rematch games, especially when the first win came at home. I also feel like the Bulldogs didn’t given the Tigers their full attention, as the intensity level just wasn’t where it needed to be. I don’t see that happening this time around and could honestly see this one going either way. If I had to take a side I would lean towards Georgia getting the points, but I think the best value in this matchup is the UNDER.

For starters, I don’t see Auburn putting up 40 points on the Bulldogs in the rematch. That was one of only two games all season where Georgia allowed more than 20 points. The only other exception being the 28-points they allowed to Missouri and that was a bit of a fluke. Missouri scored their first touchdown off a turnover where they got the ball on the Georgia 5-yard line, had two 63-yard touchdown passes, scored a garbage touchdown late with the Bulldogs up 47-21. Simply put, the game against Auburn the first time around was as bad as the defense could have played and I believe a big part of that was they showed up thinking it was going to be another easy win.

You also have to factor in that Georgia’s defense will be better prepared for Auburn’s offense the second time around. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Bulldogs hold the Tigers under 20 points.

As for the Georgia offense, I don’t know that it’s going to be a whole lot easier the second time around against this Auburn defense. The Tigers completely shutdown the Bulldogs running game, holding Georgia to just 46 yards on 32 attempts, which comes out to 1.4 yards/carry. At the same time, even if Georgia has more success running the ball, it doesn’t mean they are going to score a ton of points. Auburn just allowed 209 rushing yards to Alabama and held the Tide to just 14 points.

I just don’t see either offense being able to get going to to the point to push this over the mark. Keep in mind that we could have a 27-21 final score and that still wouldn’t be enough. Personally I think it’s going to be more like 22-17, which gives us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 48.5.!

50* STANFORD/USC VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 58)

These two teams combined for 66 points in the first meeting, easily surpassing the total of 55. Now we are getting a full 3-points more in the rematch in what's easily the biggest game of the season for both teams. I think the defenses have a huge edge when facing a team for a second time and I look for this to turn into more of a defensive battle. 

Stanford is certainly better on defense right now than they were early on in the season when these two teams played. It's also worth noting that while Stanford did get an extra week to prepare for that game, they were coming off that long trip to Australia. I'm pretty confident they aren't going to let USC run all over them like they did in the first meeting. Keep in mind in their last game they held a potent Notre Dame rushing attack to just 154 yards on 44 attempts, which comes out to a 3.5 yards/carry. 

On the flip side of this, I also think USC's defense is going to play extremely well here. While K.J. Costello has improved the Cardinal's passing attack, it's still not very good. Stanford finished the year 97th against the pass, averaging just 183.7 ypg. Most of their offense in the first meeting came from running back Bryce Love, who had 160 yards on 17 attempts. While Love can still be electric at times, he hasn't been the same guy since hurting his ankle a few weeks back. Not to mention, the Trojans have had two weeks to put together a game plan to make sure he's accounted for at all time. 

I don't see either team getting to 30 points in this game, as I think we see a final score here around 27-23, giving us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 58! 

40* NFL MONDAY NIGHT TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 39.5)

I just don't see these two teams doing a whole lot offensively in this game. Baltimore had a stretch where they were hit hard with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but they got a lot of those guys back and are back to being an elite defensive team, which is evident by the 2 shutouts they have had in their last 3 games. I just don't see a Tom Savage run Houston offense being able to do much of anything, as the Ravens should be able to take away the running game and force Savage to beat them with his arm, something I don't think he's capable of doing on the road. 

The other key here is that the Texans are still an above-average defensive teams and Baltimore is one of the worst offenses in the league. The Ravens rank dead last in passing offense, averaging just 165.2 ypg through the air and have rushed for less than 75 yards in 3 of their last 4. Not to mention the Texans run D has been on point of late, as they are giving up just 69.3 ypg over their last 4. That puts even more pressure on Baltimore's anemic passing attack and I just don't see them doing a lot. I think both teams could struggle to score 17 in this one. Give me the UNDER 39.5! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 52)

Both Indiana and Purdue go into the final game sitting at 5-6 with the winner becoming bowl eligible and the loser likely done for the year. That basically makes this a playoff game and I think that this total is way to high. Not only does the magnitude of the game favor a lower-scoring affair, but these are two teams that aren't all that great offensively and really strong on the defensive side of the ball. 

Purdue comes in ranked 82nd in the country in total offense, averaging right around 385 yards/game and Indiana is 81st at 388 yards/game. Defensively, the Boilermakers are 34th in the country, giving up just 360 yards/game and the Hoosiers are 22nd allowing only 330 yards/game. 

UNDER is 9-2 in Purdue's last 11 games and 7-1 in their last 8 against a conference opponent. UNDER is also 8-1 in Indiana's last 9 when playing a road game after their last game was at home. Give me the UNDER 52! 

40* DOLPHINS/PANTHERS MNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 38.5)

I'm willing to take my chances here with the UNDER on Monday Night Football when the Dolphins visit the Panthers. Not a lot of explanation needed to why we should expect to see a low-scoring game, as we have two of the NFL's best defenses facing off against two of the worst offenses in a prime time matchup. Carolina leads the NFL in total defense, giving up just 274 ypg, while Miami is 10th, allowing just 315 ypg. The Panthers are only scoring 18.7 ppg and the Dolphins just 14.5 ppg (9 ppg on the road). UNDER is 20-8 in the Dolphins last 28 road games when they are listed as a dog of 7.5 to 14 points and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 vs the NFC. UNDER is also 31-13 in the Panthers last 44 home games with a total of 38.5 to 52 and 13-1 in their last 14 when coming off a win by 3 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (UNDER 47) 

I'm willing to take my chances here that we don't see enough offense from either side to push this one over the mark of 47. As good as these two teams have been offensively at times this season, most of that success hasn't come against a top tier defense like they each will be facing on Saturday. 

Georgia is 3rd in the country giving up just 11.7 ppg and are 4th in total defense, allowing just 245.1 ypg. Auburn is right on their heels, as the Tigers are 9th, giving up only 16.9 ppg and are 14th in total defense, allowing 307.2 ypg. 

The reason I say that these two offenses won't come close to their season averages (both come in right round 40 ppg), is we have seen each of them struggle when matched up against a top tier defense. Auburn's came against Clemson, where managed just 6-points and 117 total yards. Georgia's came against Notre Dame, where they totaled just 20 points. 

The other key here is that both of these teams are built offensively around the running game and that plays right into the strength of these two defenses. The Bulldogs are giving up just 3.1 yards/carry against the run and Auburn is allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. The clock should be running constantly and I also think both teams could struggle to finish off drives with touchdowns, a perfect recipe for a low-scoring game. Give me the UNDER 47! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42)

Denver’s defense has been playing at an elite level all season and if not for the poor play they have got out of the quarterback position, they would likely have one of the best records in the league. The Broncos lead the league in total defense, giving up just 261 yards/game. Carolina is the only team that’s even close to them, as the Panthers are allowing 264 ypg. The next best is the Vikings at 282.1 ypg.

I believe they are more than capable of shutting down Carson Wentz and this high-powered Eagles offense. I believe the loss of star left tackle Jason Peters is going to play a big role in this game, as it leaves Philadelphia short-handed against arguably the best pass rusher in the league in Von Miller.

At the same time, I think it’s going to be equally as hard on the Broncos offense to put points on the board. Denver has benched starting quarterback Trevor Siemian and will be replacing him with Brock Osweiler. The Broncos believe that we will see a different Osweiler than in previous seasons, but I’m not buying it, especially against the Eagles. A big reason for Siemian’s struggles is he’s had no time to throw the ball and that struggling offense line is going to have their hands full against one of the best front sevens in the league.

UNDER is an impressive 9-1 in the Broncos last 10 games against a team from the NFC and 13-4 in their last 17 after playing their previous game on the road. UNDER is also 40-18 in the Eagles last 58 games after scoring 30 or more in their previous contest. Give me the UNDER 42! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 48) 

I tend to lean towards lower-scoring games in a rivalry matchup like this and that's just the tip of the iceberg to why I like this one staying under 48 points. Western Michigan is down their starting quarterback and will be sending out a true freshmen for his first collegiate start. The Broncos were already a run first team and will be even more so here. I also think that allows the Chippewas defense to load the box early and force the freshman to beat him with his arm. On the flip side of this, Central Michigan has struggled to run the ball and don't figure to get it going here. They aren't anywhere close to as good offensively as they looked in their last game against Ball State and will struggle here just to get first downs. Give me the UNDER 48! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 55.5) 

I think the value here is with the total and this one going UNDER the mark set by the books. I’ve been on the UNDER in each of the last 5 games involving the Bulldogs and it’s cashed 4 out of 5.

Last year’s meeting saw zero made field goals. Every time a team scored it was a touchdown and yet it still finished with only 63 points. I think with the way these two teams matchup this season, we see even less scoring and a few more stops in the red zone by both sides.

Mississippi State’s defense comes in ranked 8th in the country, giving up just 271 yards/game. They are giving up just 3.6 yards/rush and opposing quarterbacks have completed just 53.5% of their attempts against them. Texas A&M’s offense took a big hit in the opener when they lost starting quarterback Nick Starkel and have had to turn to true freshman Kellen Mond. While Mond is a decent threat running the ball, he’s not the best passer. He was just 8 of 24 for 180 yards last week against Florida and now faces a Bulldogs defense that is 2nd in the country, allowing just 153.6 ypg. Aggies have scored 24 or less in each of their last 3 and I think that trend continues here.

The key here is that with Texas A&M should be able to keep Mississippi State’s offense from going off. The Aggies have had two full weeks to prepare for Nick Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs offense. They are playing with confidence, should get a boost from a rowdy home crowd and matchup well. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game and that plays into the strength of the Aggies defense, which is 38th against the run (135.3 ypg) compared to 92nd vs the pass (245.1 ypg).

UNDER is 33-18 in the Bulldogs last 51 off a win by 17 or more and 9-1 in their last 10 after back-to-back wins by 17+ points. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Aggies last 4 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 off a bye week. Give me the UNDER 55.5

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 49.5) 

The first meeting between these two division rivals saw a combined 47 points, but that was with both teams recording defensive touchdowns. There were also a few other scores that were aided by a short field off a turnover (6 turnovers in the game). Both teams know what to expect from the opponent and I see no reason why the total here is higher than the output they had in the first meeting. You get a lot of talk about these two offenses, but both are rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball. Add in the extra incentive to play well on MNF and this should have no problem staying under 50 points. Give me the UNDEr 49.5! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 54.5) 

I’ve played the UNDER each of the last 4 weeks in Mississippi State games and have won 3 of them. I again see a ton of value with this total and these two teams going under the mark.

Don’t be fooled by the 40-points that Kentucky put on the board in their last game against Missouri, as the Tigers are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. The 34-points that they allowed to Missouri was also out of character, as they hadn’t allowed more than 28 in each of their first 5 and held 4 of those to 20 or less. It was also the first time the Wildcats had scored more than 27-points in a single game this season.

Kentucky’s offense comes in ranked 107th in the country at just 349 ypg. I don’t see them having much luck here against a Bulldogs defense that has looked great outside of two games against Auburn and Georgia. Even with those poor showings, they are still 8th in the nation, giving up a mere 285 ypg.

Mississippi State’s offense has been hit or miss and their success has hindered greatly on their ability to run the ball. The Bulldogs have rushed for 280+ yards in 4 games and each of those had at least 35 points. In games where they have failed to reach 200 yards they haven’t scored more than 10. Kentucky’s defense is built to stop the run, as they come in 10th in the nation, allowing just 97.2 ypg on the ground.

UNDER is 38-19 in Mississippi State’s last 57 games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points, which includes a perfect 6-0 mark at home over the last 3 seasons when playing with a total in this range. UNDER is also 8-3 in the Wildcats last 11 road games and 9-1-1 in their last 11 after throwing for 280+ yards in their previous game. Give me the UNDER 54.5! 

40* EARLY BIRD NCAAF TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 47) 

I think these two fly by this low total. Purdue is a much better offensive team than the numbers would suggest. The Boilermakers last 3 games have come against 3 teams that all rank inside the Top 30 in the country in total defense, with two of those (Wisconsin & Michigan) teams ranking in the Top 10.

The last time they faced a sub-par defense, Purdue had nearly 500 yards of total offense on the road against Missouri. Keep in mind that the offense is only going to keep getting better under head coach Jeff Brohm, who is one of the bright offensive minds in the game.

I think we see the Boilermakers score 30+ in this one without much problem. At the same time, I think coming off that huge game against Wisconsin and a much bigger game at home against Nebraska on deck, I look for the Purdue defense to be caught off guard by Rutgers here.

The Scarlet Knights just piled on 274 rushing yards against Illinois and have one of the top playmakers in the conference at wide receiver in Janarion Grant. Rutgers should have another strong game on the ground, as Purdue ranks just 84th in the country against the run (175.0 ypg).

OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the Boilermakers last 5 after they scored fewer than 20 points in their previous game and 6-1 in their last 7 off a SU loss and 7-0 in their last 7 off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog. Give me the OVER 47!

50* CHIEFS/RAIDERS AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46) 

I wasn't surprised to see the Chiefs offense struggle last week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has had this teams number, shutting them down in the 3 meetings over the last 2 seasons. As bad as KC looked in that game, you can't forget just how good this offense was to start the season. I know they lost some wide outs, but all are guys they can replace and really weren't big factors in the offense to begin with. They still have their dynamic trio of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. I do expect the Raiders offense to come to life here, as this Chiefs defense is giving up 378 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. I also think defenses are at a much bigger disadvantage on these short weeks with such little time to prepare. Give me the OVER 46! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48)

I don't see a ton of offense taking place on Monday Night Football between the Colts and Titans. Tennessee will have Marcus Mariota back under center, but he's still not fully recovered from a hamstring injury that kept him out of last weeks game. I also think the Titans defense is a lot better than it's getting credit for. They really just had one bad game against the Texans that really skewed their defensive numbers. 

The Colts offense is still without Andrew Luck and until he's back under center Indianapolis will struggle to put point on the board. There's no denying that Jacoby Brissett is better than Scott Tolzien, but Brissett is still a backup at best in this league right now. He's only throwing for 182.2 ypg and has a mere 2 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions on the season. 

Another key factor here that can't get overlooked is that these are division rivals, who both desperately need to win this game in a wide open AFC South. These two teams know what the other likes to do and that usually leads to a lower-scoring game. Give me the UNDER here at 48! 

50* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 48.5) 

BYU's offense is dreadful. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game and have been held to 7 or fewer three times. They are 128th out of 130 FBS teams at just 14.0 ppg.

They aren’t catching a break here against a pissed off Bulldogs defense that had been playing extremely well before a couple of poor showings against Georgia and Auburn. Not to mention the fact that Dan Mullen and his staff have had two weeks to get their guys ready for this game. Mullen’s teams rarely come out flat in this spot.

I wouldn’t be shocked if they held BYU to under 10 points. In fact, I would be more surprised if the Cougars eclipsed that mark. That means Mississippi State can score 35 (7 touchdowns) and there’s a good chance the game stays under the mark.

The key here is that BYU actually has a decent defense. Most importantly, they matchup well with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game. They rank 17th in rushing (252.8 ypg) compared to 110th in passing (169.2 ypg). While the Cougars are just 78th against the run, giving up 167.2 ypg, they are only giving up 3.7 yards/carry against teams that average 4.3 yards/carry. They have simply played a lot of run-first teams, which has that run defense looking worse than it is.

The fact that BYU should be able to slow down the Bulldogs ground game should eliminate the big plays and force Mississippi State to eat up some clock when they do put together a scoring drive. As long as we don’t get a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns, this one should stay well under the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 48.5!

50* CLEMSON/SYRACUSE ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (UNDER 57.5) 

I'm taking the Tigers and Orange to go UNDER the mark set by the books. Clemson’s defense is special and it seems like the bigger the stage the better they play. The fact that Syracuse has recently played well on the road against the likes of LSU and NC State and this is a prime time game, I expect a big effort here from the Tigers stop unit. 

Syracuse has a couple of big time weapons at receiver, but I don't see them having enough time to throw. The Orange don’t have much of a running game, at least not one Clemson will have to respect. The Tigers and that dominant defensive line will be able to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback.

The big key here is Clemson’s starting quarterback Kelly Bryant hurt his ankle and left last week’s game against Wake Forest. He’s listed as probably and expected to play, but I expect Clemson to be very cautious with letting him run the ball, which is arguably his biggest strength. Instead they will likely just lean on their two talented backs and grind out a win here.

Syracuse has also been playing better on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Orange are holding opponents to just 357.7 ypg, which ranks 46th in the country. That’s a massive improvement over last year, when they allowed 501 ypg. The biggest improvement is their run defense. In 2016 they allowed 225 ypg and 5.4 yards/carry. This year they are allowing just 131.5 ypg and 3.8 yards/carry.

The UNDER is an impressive 14-4 in Syracuse’s last 18 games and 9-1 in their last 10 at home. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Tigers last 11 games played in a Dome. Give me the UNDER 57.5

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (OVER 47.5) 

If I had to take a side in this one, I would probably take the points with the Seahawks, but I see a lot more value here in the total. I know the majority of the recent meetings have been very low-scoring. This is a much different Rams team than the past seasons under Jeff Fisher, whose staff clearly didn’t know offense. 

Under new head coach Sean McVay the Rams are leading the NFL at 35.5 ppg and are 5th in yardage at 383.8 ypg. If they just convert 4 of those 7 field goals to TDs, they would have hung 50 on the Cowboys. That’s a better Dallas defense than it gets credit for.

Seattle’s defense gets a lot of love, but don’t think they are elite on that side of the ball. Right defensive end Cliff Avril is out of this one and right corner Jeremy Lane left the last game with a groin injury and is questionable to play. I got confidence in McVay’s ability to put together a gameplan to attack this right side of the field with success.

The biggest thing here is the play of the Rams defense is getting completely overlooked. It’s really been bad through 4 games. They rank 27th in total defense and teams are running it all over them. They are 30th against the run, allowing 151.5 ypg. The only team they have held to fewer than 27 points is the Colts when they were starting Scott Tolzien. The thing that really stands out to me is the contest against the 49ers. The let SF pile on 421 yards and 39 points. The 49ers have a whopping 27 points in their other 3 games combined and in those 3 games have averaged just 256.y ypg.

Seattle’s offense always starts out slow and this year was no different. I think they got some confidence going on that side after scoring 3 TD’s in the final 20 minutes against the Colts. A big spark for that unit was running back J.D. McKissic, who scored twice and could see more action with Chris Carson out.

I’ll take my chances the trends continue here with the Rams playing in high-scoring games, as each of their first 4 games have seen at least 47 points. Note that Seattle’s last two have seen 50+ combined points. Give me the OVER 47.5!

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 52)

I have been on the UNDER bandwagon each of the last two weeks with Mississippi State and cashed both times. They only reached 44 in their blowout win over LSU and the total was up close to 55. Last week we saw just 34 combined points in the loss to Georgia. I think this is another one that struggles to reach that 40-point mark, giving us a ton of value.

As I’ve stated in the past, I’m a huge fan of Mississippi State’s new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. Just look at how different Louisville is playing on the defensive side of the ball without him in charge of the unit this year. I know the performance against Georgia wasn’t great, but I believe it was more of the Bulldogs’ players getting some big heads after that win over LSU. I didn’t see the same intensity and fight on defense against the Bulldogs. I have a hard time believing that Dan Mullen will let that kind of effort happen in back-to-back games. I look for an inspired effort here from the Mississippi State defense.

Sure Auburn put up 51 points last week against Missouri, but if you have really watched this team you know there’s major concerns with the offense. They had a whopping 117 total yards against Clemson (BC had 238 against the Tigers last week). It’s also not like Missouri has a good defense or is any good in general. They gave up 31 in a 18-pt loss to South Carolina and 35 in a 32-pt loss to Purdue. Both of which were on their home field.

One thing we can be sure about with Auburn is their defense. The Tigers were outstanding on that side of the ball last year, allowing just 17.1 ppg and 362 ypg. They returned 7 starters to that unit and through 4 games are allowing 11.2 ppg and 237 ypg. After how Mississippi State struggled against another elite defense in Georgia, hard to see them scoring a ton here.

I wouldn’t be shocked if either team got to 20 points and certainly don’t see both offenses having a big day in this one. UNDER is a rock solid 38-18 in the Bulldogs last 56 games with a total between 49.5 and 56 points. UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in Auburn’s last 6 games following a contest in which they combined for 60 or more points. Give me the UNDER 52! 

50* TEXAS/ISU BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (OVER 63.5)

I know these two have struggled to put up points in the last two meetings, but I think we in store for a shootout tonight in Ames. Matt Campbell is in year two with ISU and has the offense ranked 42nd in the country, which is no surprise given what he was able to do at Toledo, which averaged 35 ppg and 461 ypg in his final year. He's got the passing attack working for the Cyclones, as they come in ranked 18th in the country. 

The game that really stands out to me as a sign that this one will see a lot of scoring is Iowa State's game against in-state rival Iowa. The two combined for 85 points with each scoring in the 40s. That's a very limited Iowa offense who could struggled to get first downs last week against Penn State. Texas has some playmakers on offense and are only going to keep getting better offensively under first year head coach Tom Herman. I'm willing to bet they come out sharp here off a bye. 

The key here is that I trust this Cyclones offense to do their part and push this one over the mark. Especially with this game being at home. Texas' defense is still a work in progress and we saw them give up 50 in their opener at home to Maryland. The defense was better against USC, but some of that was the Trojans not coming out sharp off a big road game against Stanford. I look for a lot of big plays and quick scores by both sides. Give me the OVER 63.5! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42) 

Seattle’s defense has the same feel as the one that routinely finished near the top of the league in defensive metrics. In Week 1 they kept Aaron Rogers and the Packers offense off the scoreboard until the final second of the 3rd quarter. Last week they allowed a mere 3 field goals and 248 yards to the 49ers, basically winning them the game.

While the defense has been playing lights out, the offense has been hard to watch. Seattle could only muster 225 yards against Green Bay in Week 1, a number that looks a lot worse after watching Matt Ryan and the Falcons pick apart the Packer defense in Week 2. Like we see with a lot of the teams struggling offensively early on in 2017, the offensive line is the main culprit for the struggles. Seattle has put very little resources into their offensive line and lost their starting left tackle before the season ever started.

They do seem to eventually figure it out up front, but I don’t see it happening this week against a stingy Titans defense that is very strong up front. Last year Tennessee was 2nd in the NFL agains the run, allowing just 88.3 ypg. They upgraded the secondary in the offseason and should post better numbers overall.

Another thing I like here is that Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota are two very similar quarterbacks. Both rely a lot on their mobility to extend plays. That’s not easy to prepare for, but it should be for these two teams, given they go against their own mobile quarterback in practice. I just don’t see either team reaching 20 points, unless we have a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns. I’ll take my chances on that not being the case.

UNDER is 9-1 in the Seahawks 10 road games under Pete Carroll, where they come in having scored 17 points or less in 2 straight games. The average final score in these games was a mere 32.5 and half points, giving us a full 10-points of value here.

40* NCAAF VEGAS OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 48)

I cashed in on Missisippi St/LSU UNDER last week and love the UNDER again with Mississippi State taking on Georgia. As mentioned in last week's write-up, this is a different Mississippi State defense under Todd Grantham and a far superior defense than the Notre Dame defense that held Georgia to just 20 points. Speaking of that game against the Irish, Georgia held Notre Dame to just 266 total yards. That's impressive given that the Irish had 606 yards in their opener against Temple and just put another 611 yards on the road against an always strong Boston College defense. This has a grind it out low-scoring game where both sides struggle to get 20 points. Give me the UNDER 48! 

50* RAMS/49ERS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39)

I believe a big reason for this low total is a result of how the 49ers first two games have gone. San Francisco’s first two games combined only add up to 47 points, as they have scored a mere 12-points in 2 games. The thing is, they have went up against two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seahawks and Panthers. Also two teams who are struggling offensively because of poor offensive line play. While the Rams are considered to have a good defense, I don’t think they are on the same level as the Seahawks and Panthers. They were great against the Colts, but I feel that was more a byproduct of Scott Tolzien. They weren’t nearly as good agains the Redskins. The stat that sticks out is Washington’s 229 rushing yards on 39 attempts (5.9 yards/carry). That’s good news for a 49ers offense that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. I also think they will be able to generate a few more big plays through the air in this one. As for the Rams offense, I like what I’m seeing in the first year under McVay. I really think it’s a unit that is only going to keep getting better, as they are still adjusting to a new scheme and several new pieces. Give me the OVER 39! 

40* LIONS/GIANTS MNF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 42.5) 

Two good quarterbacks here in Stafford and Manning, but I don't see either offense doing much in this one. The concerns with the Giants offense are even worse after watching how the Broncos picked apart the Cowboys defense. Even if Beckham Jr. suits up, I still think NY has a tough time moving the ball with the problems they have on the o-line and the inability to run the ball. On the flip side of this, I love this Giants defense and with the team desperate to avoid an 0-2 start and the game at home, I think they shutdown Stafford here. Keep in mind these two teams played late last year and combined for 23 points. Give me the UNDER 42.5! 

40* PACKERS/FALCONS SNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55.5)

These two teams played twice last year. Once in the regular season and again in the NFC Championship Game. Both teams they combined for 60+ points. I'll take my chances on another shootout in Atlanta, as we got two of the best offenses in the league here behind two of the best QB's in Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. Both of these teams will be eager to get the offense going after a sub-par showing in Week 1. Green Bay's slow start was to be expected against Seattle and I wasn't surprised at all to see the Falcons struggle in Chicago, which isn't a great field for offenses like Atlanta that rely on speed. I'm also not buying the Packers defense being as good as it looked against the Seahawks, as Seattle's offensive line is a joke. As for the Falcons, Matt Glennon moved the ball on them, so there's no reason to think Rodgers won't do the same. Give me the OVER 55.5! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 44)

I was on the OVER in last weeks Colts/Rams game and a lot of that had to do with Indianapolis' defense being one of the worst in the league. The key here is we are getting a low total because of the fact that Arizona lost star RB David Johnson. The thing is, Carson Palmer has the weapons to attack a banged up Colts secondary, which is missing their best corner in Vontae Davis. I could see Arizona putting up a big number here, similar to what the Rams did last week. Keep in mind LA only had 63 rushing yards in that game, so the loss of Johnson just isn't that important here. As for the Colts offense, I expect a much better showing at home and now that Jacoby Brissett is starting over the awful Scott Tolzien. I think this total should be closer to 54 not 44. Give me the OVER 44! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUST TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 58)

I think the total here is way too low and it's a result of Clemson just playing a game against Auburn where 20 total points were scored in the 14-6 win over Auburn. The thing is Auburn doesn't have a dual threat named Lamar Jackson, who is the most difficult player in college football. Keep in mind Clemson's defense looked great last year in a 19-13 win at Auburn and had no answer for Jackson at home just a few games later. With this game in Louisville under the lights, I think Jackson shines. He's going to have to, cause the Cardinals defense is not the same without the services of defensive coordinator Todd Grantham (now at Miss St). They let both Purdue and UNC move the ball with ease. Clemson will do the same. I think both teams get to 30 and for those wondering they combined for 78 points last year. Give me the OVER 58! 

100* SEC FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 55.5)

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48)

I look for both offenses to struggle to get going in this one and feel there's big time value here with the UNDER. Minnesota should have one of the best defenses in the league and are more than capable of shutting down Drew Brees and the Saints offense at home in a big time game like this. Most don't see New Orleans as a great defensive team, but they made a lot of progress on that side of the ball last year and I expect them to be even better in 2017. Minnesota's offense should be improved now that Bradford has had an offseason with the team, but it's far from an elite unit. I still see the Vikings as a team that wants to win by controlling the clock with the running game and relying on their defense to make plays. Give me the UNDER 48! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 47.5)

I think we are going to see a lot more offense than people are expecting here. Carolina has a healthy Cam Newton who has MVP talent and a shiny new toy in RB Christian McCaffrey. I think McCaffrey makes the Panthers extremely difficult to guard with their big receivers on the outside. I respect the Panthers defense, but they still have a below-average secondary and the 49ers are expected to be much better offensively now that Kyle Shanahan is the head coach. He's going to open up things, which in turn is going to have the defense on the field more now that the offense isn't just trying to grind it down the field with the running game. I look for SF to be a good OVER play early on. Take the OVER 47.5! 

40* NFL VEGAS ERROR OF THE WEEK (Over 41.5)

I think there's some on the bandwagon that the Rams are going to be a much better offensive team this year under new head coach Sean McVay, but how much improvement is up for debate given how bad they were. They finished dead last in yards at 262.7 ypg and scoring at 14.0 ppg. I really like McVay and believe his scheme will have LA making a huge improvement into the top half of the league. He's gonna open up the offense and take advantage of the special talent that Gurley possesses. At the same time, most don't think the Colts can score with Andrew Luck not at quarterback. I think Indy will be able to move the ball just fine here, as they have some playmakers on the outside and are getting a huge break with Aaron Donald not expected to play (he's the guy that makes that defense elite). Give me the OVER 41.5! 

40* NCAAF BIG MONEY VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Under 55.5)

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL BLOWOUT (Over 68.5)

I don't think the books are anywhere close to high enough on this total. Oregon's offense looked a lot more like they had in the Chip Kelly era in that first game under Willie Taggart and there's just a different feel to this year's team. They put 77 on Southern Utah and had 42 with time to play in the first half. Nebraska just gave up 36 points and 497 yards of offense at home to Arkansas State. They got zero chance of slowing down Oregon, who have some big revenge on their mind after blowing that game in Nebraska last year. Thing is, Cornhuskers can move the ball and will do plenty of damage here against the Ducks defense. Give me the OVER 68.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 56.5) 

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 47)

I have a good feeling the Tigers are going to surprise some people early in 2017 with how much different they look on offense. LSU made an exceptional hire in offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who just guided Pitt to 40.9 ppg and 447 ypg last year. Keep in mind that was his first year on the job and the season before the Panthers only managed 28.2 ppg and 377 ypg. He's got a heck of a lot more talent to work with at LSU, including a sensational junior RB in Derrius Guice. I think BYU is going to be a bit shell-shocked here with LSU's offense. At the same time, I also think the Cougars put some points on the board. LSU lost a ton on the defensive side of the ball. They have to replace their top 5 tacklers and their best returning defensive player (Arden Key) is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Give me the OVER 47! 

50* POWER 5 NON CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (OVER 67.5)

For whatever reason the entire country is sleeping on Louisville and returning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson this season. I know the Cardinals struggled down the stretch, but I believe it was more of the team not being as focused after losing out on their playoff hopes than opposing defenses figuring them out. Petrino has won everywhere he's went and Jackson is only going to be better this year. I love the hire by Purdue with Jeff Brohm, which should pay off on the offensive side of the ball. However, the defense will remain a work in progress. Keep in mind were talking about a Boilermakers defense that allowed 40+ points in 6 games, that includes 50 to Maryland, 44 to Minnesota, 45 to Northwestern and 49 to Iowa. Louisville is on a whole different planet in terms of offensive explosiveness than those teams. I think they score at least 40 and potentially a lot more here, while Purdue adds more than enough to push us over the mark. Give me the OVER 67.5! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 56)

50* CFB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Over 56.5)

I think the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. These two teams played last year and combined for 67 points in a 53-14 win by UCF. I think we see a similar scoring output here, giving us all kinds of breathing room. Scott Frost brought Oregon's uptempo attack with him to Orlando and if you recall the Ducks loved to poor it on teams. FIU should be improved under head coach Butch Davis, but will struggle to slow down UCF's offense which has 9 starters back and should get even better play out of sophomore QB McKenzie Milton, who flashed as a true freshman. FIU only averaged 24 ppg last year, but should see a huge uptick in their production under new OC Rich Skrosky. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

50* Clemson/Alabama Vegas Sharp Money Total Top Play (OVER 50.5)

I think everyone is falling into a similar trap to last year's title game, where there's so much talk about how dominant Alabama's defense is and Clemson coming off a dominant performance in their Semifinals matchup. Last year they beat Oklahoma 37-17, keeping an explosive Sooners offense in check. I just don't see this being a defensive battle. Clemson's defense has had their fair share of games where the defense struggled, giving up 36 to Louisville, 34 to Florida State and 42 to Pitt. Let's also not forget that Alabama has scored 30+ in 12 of their 14 games. The offense didn't look good against Washington, but Kiffin wasn't on his game. I just think there's too much talent on offense on both sides for this to stay under the total here. Give me the OVER 50.5!

40* NFL Over/Under Total Knockout (UNDER 44.5)

I think the perception here is that Green Bay's defense struggling with injuries and Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind, that this game is going to be high-scoring and fly over the total posted here of 44.5. I don't think that's going to be the case at all. The Packers late season surge has come with them playing a favorable schedule, either against teams who haven't been good defensively or teams that just weren't the same defensively in the 2nd half (Seattle/Minnesota). The last real good defense they played was the Texans and they managed just 21 points. This Giants defense is just as good and has familiarity with Green Bay having played in the regular season. While I don't love Green Bay's defense, the Giants offense isn't anything special. They can't run the ball and Eli Manning isn't as good as he gets credit for. With the game in Green Bay and conditions not great, I think this is going to be a defensive showdown. Give me the UNDER 44.5!

40* NFL Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 53.5)

No reason to overthink this one. This game has a high-scoring game written all over. On one side we have the Colts 11th ranked offense going up against the Raiders 30th ranked defense. On the other side we have Oakland's 6th ranked offense facing off against Indianapolis' 27th ranked defense. The OVER is a 5-1 in the Raiders 6 home games this season, as they are scoring 29.2 ppg at home and giving up 28.0 ppg. The Colts are averaging 30.0 ppg on the road and have scored 30+ in their last 4 on the road against the Titans, Packers, Jets and Vikings. OVER is 15-5 in the Raiders 20 home games over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 in their last 9 off a road win. OVER is also 8-1 in the Colts last 9 road games with a total of 45.5 or more and 9-2 in their last 11 road games against AFC opponents. Give me the OVER 53.5!

40* Armed Forces Bowl Total Crusher (OVER 67.5)

I think we are going to see a lot of points on the scoreboard Friday afternoon when Navy takes on Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs haven't faced a triple-option team in years and I expect a much better Midshipmen offense now that they have had time to get their new quarterback adjusted to the offense. If not for Navy struggling offensively in their last 2 games, I believe this total would be pushing 80 points. Louisiana Tech has scored at least 44 points in 7 of their last 8 games, the only time they didn't was a meaningless game against Southern Miss, where they had nothing to play for having already secured a spot in the C-USA title game. If they simply get to 44, we only need 24 from Navy and I think they the Midshipmen will be in the 30s. I also wouldn't be shocked if La Tech put up 50+ in this one. Give me the OVER!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 42.5)

I think we are going to see an offensive struggle tonight between the Giants and Eagles. New York's defense has been playing lights out of late and should have no problem keeping this slumping Philadelphia offense in check. New York's offense looks good on paper with Manning and Beckham, but they are only scoring 19.4 ppg on the season and just 17.3 ppg on the road. I know the Eagles are out of the playoff race, but I think they show up here at home in a prime time game on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the UNDER 42.5!

50* NFL -Panthers/Redskins Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 50.5)

I believe we are going to see a lot of scoring take place on Monday Night Football. Washington's got an explosive offense that comes in averaging 27.5 ppg at home. This is also an ideal matchup for the Redskins pass-happy attack. Washington has the 2nd ranked passing attack in the league and will be facing a Panthers defense that is 30th versus the pass. Carolina also isn't a good defensive team on the road, giving up 32.5 ppg. On the flip side of this, the Panthers have a strong offense and will be facing a very suspect Redskins defense that ranks 22nd against the run and 24th against he pass. Give me the OVER 50.5!

40* NCAAF -Beach Bowl- Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 69.5)

This game has a high-scoring shootout written all over it. Tulsa is the heavy favorite and should have no problem dictating the tempo, which is key here. The Golden Hurricane like to play fast and have a dynamic offense. I just don't see the Chippewas being able to slow them down and that's really the key here. Tulsa doesn't play a lot of defense and while Central Michigan's offense struggled in MAC play, they should be able to put up a big number here. The Chippewas have a above-average signal caller, who should have a field day here. Give me the OVER 69.5!

40* NFL -Packers/Bears- Blockbuster Total Annihilator (UNDER 38.5)

The books have set a very low total here for good reason. The conditions for this game are going to be absolutely miserable. Temperatures are expected to be right around 0 degrees with windchill approaching -15 below. Not to mention winds are going to be 15-20 mph, making matters only worse for scoring. This is going to make it very hard on the Packers to sustain drives, as they really struggle to run the ball. Chicago's offense is being guided by Matt Barkley and will be looking to grind out possessions to keep Green Bay's offense off the field. I just don't see either offense doing much of anything here. Give me the UNDER 38.5!

40* NFL Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 45.5)

There's a lot to like about a low-scoring game here with the Bills and Steelers. For starters, Pittsburgh's offense isn't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. In fact the Steelers come in averaging around 30 ppg at home, compared to just 20 ppg on the road. Pittsburgh's high-powered passing attack also plays right into the strength of the Bills, defense which ranks 8th against the pass. As for Buffalo, they are 1st in rushing and dead last in passing. The Steelers counter that well, as they have the 6th ranked run defense. On top of all this, the conditions will be brutal (very similar to Chiefs/Raiders on TNF), winds will be close to 10 mph and the windchill will be in teens. Give me the UNDER 45.5!

40* NFL Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 41) 

Whenever the Ravens are involved there's typically going to be value on the UNDER and I think we are getting some here with Sunday's game at home against the Dolphins. Baltimore comes in ranked 2nd in total defense, allowing a mere 297.8 ypg. They are 2nd against the run (74.9 ypg) and 6th against the pass (222.9 ypg). We saw Miami's offense struggle in their last road game against the Rams, who are nearly as good as the Ravens. While Baltimore figures to keep Miami's offense in check, the Dolphins defense should be in store for a good game here. The Ravens are just limited offensively, as they can't get anything going on the ground and Flacco just isn't getting it done through the air. Baltimore has scored 21 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games and the only exception during this stretch was a 28-point outburst against the awful Browns. Points are going to be a premium in this one Give me the UNDER 41! 

40*  NCAAF Vegas Line Mistake (UNDER 47)

It's no secret that Wisconsin has one of the best defenses in the country. In terms of Big Ten defenses, it's right on par with Michigan, which held Penn State to just 10 points and 191 yards of total offense. Right behind those two defenses is Ohio State. While the Nittany Lions pulled off the upset against the Buckeyes, they only had 276 yards of total offense and keep in mind they were sitting on 7-points going into the 4th quarter of that game. They ended up scoring 24, but they blocked a punt setting up a field goal and blocked an OSU field goal and returned it for a touchdown. The key here is the Nittany Lions have got a lot better defensively and Wisconsin is average at best offensively. Not to mention, the Badgers want to run the football and control the clock. I just don't see enough offense here for these two to flirt with going over this total. Give me the UNDER!

50* AFC North Total of the Month (Under 40.5)

This has all the makings of a low-scoring AFC North defensive showdown. The Ravens only come in scoring 19.9 ppg and will struggle to score here against the Bengals. Cincinnati's season is on the line here and I expect an all out effort here from the defense, as the know they have to play well for them to have a chance in this game. That's because the offense is going to have a tough time moving the ball. Cincinnati will be without star wide out A.J. Green, who is the one player this offense couldn't afford to lose and it's clear Dalton is not the same QB without him on the field. They also lost running back Giovani Bernard, who has been a big weapon for Dalton out of the backfield when he's under pressure. Even with those two, this offense figured to be in for a long day, as they are going up against an elite Ravens defense. Give me the UNDER 40.5!

40* NCAAF Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 47.5)

Offense will be hard to come by in this one. Both of these teams are built offensively around their running games and are going to run the football no matter what defense they are up against. Both will have a difficult time getting anything going, as these are two of the best run defenses in the country. Alabama leads the nation, giving up just 68.9 ypg on the ground and Auburn is 19th, allowing just 117.7 ypg. I think this has the makings of a very similar type of game we saw a couple weeks ago when Alabama faced off against LSU. Give me the UNDER 47.5!

40* NCAAF Situational Total No Brainer (Under 45.5)

These are two of the best defenses in the country facing off in arguably the biggest game of the weekend. Ohio State ranks 4th in the country in total defense, allowing just 279.8 ypg and Michigan leads the nation in total defense, allowing just 245.6 ypg. The Wolverines are limited offensively and will have a horrible time scoring here against the Buckeyes. I look for them to really try and control the clock and keep the Ohio State offense off the field and more importantly keep their defense fresh. Touchdowns will be hard to come by and i just don't see either team getting to 20 points, making this an easy play for me. Give me the UNDER 45.5!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 48) 

I just think we are getting too much value here to pass up on the UNDER with the total sitting at 48. The Colts are going to struggle to do much of anything offensively without Luck under center. Their only chance of keeping this game competitive is to try and get something going in the running game to control the time possession and keep Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense off the field. I also don't think people realize that Pittsburgh's offense isn't nearly as effective on the road as it is at home. The Steelers are only averaging 18.8 ppg on the road this season. The Colts defense knows they have to play well here and playing at home in a prime time game should have them a notch or two better than what we would normally see on a given Sunday. Give me the UNDER 48!

40* NFL Over/Under Total Crusher (Under 52)

I know it's only Week 11, but this has the feeling of a playoff game between these two division rivals. A loss for either team really puts them in a bad spot to make the playoffs, especially for the home team Panthers. I know these two combined for 79 points in the first meeting at New Orleans, but each of the last 3 games in the series at Carolina have all finished with fewer than 50 points. Both of these defenses have improved since the last time these two teams played. Saints are allowing just 22.7 ppg over their last 3 and the Panthers are giving up just 16.7 ppg in their last 3. Each team will be without their starting left tackle, which is going to slow down both offenses. I also think the Panthers are going to try to play ball control to keep the ball out of the hands of Brees and the Saints offense. Give me the UNDER 52!

40* NCAAF Friday Night Total Crusher (Under 47.5)

I don't see either team doing a lot offensively in this one. While Florida State's defense hasn't been great and the numbers aren't good, they have played a brutal schedule that has featured a number of really good offenses. The one FBS opponent they faced that was anywhere close to as bad as BC offensively was Wake Forest and they limited them to just 6 points and 252 yards of total offense. While the Eagles will struggle to score, their defense should be able to hold their own against the Seminoles. Boston College features one of the best defenses in the country and have had a lot of success slowing down Florida State in recent meetings. Holding them to 20 or less in each of the last two. Give me the UNDER 47.5!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 54.5)

I believe we have a perfect recipe for a high-scoring game here, as we get two of the better quarterbacks in the league in Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers and neither has much of a running game they can rely on. Both come in throwing it about 62% of the time. That's going to keep the clock from running constantly and should lead to some big plays and quick scores. No real need to discuss how bad the Colts defense is, as it's clear they don't have the talent on that side of the ball and it's almost a given they struggle on the road, as they come in giving up 28.7 ppg and over 400 ypg. The key here is the Packers defense is built more for stopping the run and has struggled against the pass. They are giving up a 63% completion rate and 7.4 yards per pass attempt. They also remain thin in the secondary, corners Sam Shields and Damarious Randall are both out, while corners Quinten Rollins, and Demetri Goodson are both questionable. Let's also not forget that Luck and the Colts just got a big weapon back last week in Donte Moncrief. Give me the OVER 54.5!

50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 76)

Anytime Cal is involved in a game, you have to be thinking OVER. They are 8th in the country in total offense, with the 4th ranked passing attack at (365.6 ypg). They are also 124th in total defense. They are averaging 41.2 ppg and giving up 41.7 ppg. They also play at a fast tempo, so there's a lot of possessions for both sides. Washington has a good defense, which I think is keeping this total lower than it should be. The way Cal plays, it can go one of two ways here in my opinion. We know Washington is going to score against this Cal defense, they are even better offensively than Cal at 46.1 ppg and put up 70 on a similarly bad Oregon defense earlier this year. Cal's offense has success and scores with them or they struggle, get down big, and put up garbage points late. I think it's the former. This is the best offense Washington has seen all season, by far the best quarterback they have faced and the defense could be a step slow here after a very physical game last week at Utah. Give me the OVER 76! 

40* NCAAF Blockbuster Total Knockout (Over 61)

I think the books have set the bar way too low for this one. Western Michigan comes into this game having scored 41 or more points in each of their last 5 games and should have no problem reaching that mark against the Cardinals. The key here is that Ball State has the offensive fire power to keep pace with the Broncos, especially with this game being played on their home field. Keep in mind these two teams combined for 51 points 61 points last year and that was with Ball State only contributing 7-points. 4 of the last 5 in the series have gone OVER when played at Ball State and the trend continues, as I think these two combine for 70+. Give me the OVER 61!

50* NCAAF AAC Total of the Month (Over 73) 

I'm expecting a shootout in Memphis this Saturday, as the Tigers take on the Golden Hurricane. The only team that's been able to contain Tulsa's offense this season is Ohio State, where they managed just 3-points and 189 yards of total offense. The Hurricane have scored at least 31 in every other game and 40+ in 5 of the 6 not against Ohio State. If you take out the game against the Buckeyes, Tulsa is averaging 45.8 ppg and 534.3 ypg. Memphis' defense isn't as good as the 22.6 ppg average they have. They are allowing 39.0 ppg to teams not named SE Missouri St, Kansas, Bowling Green and Tulane. Not only should Tulsa put up a big number, but the Tigers figure to do their fair share of scoring as well. The Golden Hurricane have allowed 38+ points in 4 games and the only teams they have held in check are San Jose St, North Carolina A&T and Tulane. Memphis has scored at least 24 in every game and are averaging 38.4 ppg. Give me the OVER 73! 

40* NCAAF Blockbuster Bookie Total Crusher (Over 65) 

I think we are going to see a lot of points on the scoreboard tonight. USF didn't play well at all last week at Temple and still put up 30 points. That was their lowest offensive output this season, as they come in averaging 42.4 ppg. Navy's defense comes in having allowed 28 or more in each of their last 3, including 40 points against Houston, who I think offensively is very close to what USF brings to the table. The key here is the Midshipmen should be able to put up some points of their own, as USF's run defense isn't great. I see a lot of big plays on both sides that lead to quick scores and more possessions than you would typically see in a Navy game. Give me the OVER 65! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 44) 

I believe we are going to see a sloppy low-scoring game on Thursday Night Football, as the Titans host the Jaguars. Both of these offenses are struggling to consistently put up points. Tennessee comes into this game 20.9 ppg and Jacksonville is even worse at 19.5 ppg. What a lot of people don't realize with these two teams is they are solid on the defensive side of the ball. The Titans are 10th in total defense and the Jaguars are 9th. Unless we get a lot of turnovers and short fields, I think this one stays well under the mark. Note that 4 of the last 5 in the series have seen a combined score of 36 or less. Give me the UNDER 44! 

50* MNF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 40.5) 

I think both of these offenses are going to have a horrible time trying to sustain drives and finish them off with points. The Broncos are going to make life absolutely miserable for Brock Osweiler and I expect Houston to try and counter that by running Lamar Miller as much as possible. As for the Denver offense, I think they too could find it hard here. The Broncos could be without both starting offensive tackles and without those two the offensive line is in really bad shape. Even if they play, I think both could struggle to contain Houston's solid pass rushing duo of Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney. Like the Texans, Denver is going to look to run the ball early and often. It won't quite be the defensive battle that we saw last night with Seattle and Arizona, but I don't think it's too far behind. Give me the UNDER 40.5! 

50* SNF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 44)

I'm expecting an old-school defensive battle on Sunday Night Football between the Seahawks and Cardinals. This is a huge game for both teams. Seattle knows they can take complete control of the NFC West with a win here and winning the division and getting home field in the playoffs is critical for this team. Arizona on the other hand has to have this game to keep their hopes alive of defending as division champs. Both offenses have been hit or miss this season, but defensively both have been sharp. Seattle is ranked No. 1 in total defense, ranking in the top 5 against both the run and the pass. Arizona is 4th in total defense. While they are 17th against the run, they come in at No. 3 against the pass, which is key here against Seattle. A lot of people think the Seahawks are more of a run team than they are. Seattle is 24th in rushing compared to 9th in passing, so this is clearly a good matchup for the Cardinals. Give me the UNDER 44! 

50* NCAAF PAC-12 Total of the Month (OVER 63.5)

I'm expecting a shootout in Tempe Saturday night. I believe we are seeing a much lower total than we should be, due to Washington State's defense holding Stanford to just 16 points and UCLA to only 21 in their last 2 games. The Cardinal offense is limited and are more of a run-first team, while the Bruins were minus their star quarterback Josh Rosen. Arizona State was just held to 16 points at Colorado, but they clearly didn't show up for that game and the Buffaloes have a better defense than people realize. With this game being played at Arizona State, I look for the Sun Devils offense to put up a big number. At the same time, I think Arizona State's defense will be exposed by the Cougars. Both these teams like to play at a fast pace and would much rather attack defenses through the air than on the ground. That's going to lead to some extra possessions for both sides and should have this one finishing closer to 75 than 65. Give me the OVER 63! 

50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 53) 

This is basically an elimination game in the Coastal, plus both are coming off a bad loss in their last game. I don't think there's any doubt that we are going to get the very best both teams have to offer. I believe that it's going to result in a low-scoring defensive battle. Both of these teams are legit on the defensive side of the ball. Miami hasn't allowed more than 21 points all season and have played FSU and UNC. I know the Hokies just allowed 31 last week at Syracuse, but prior to that they had allowed 20 points in their previous 3 games combined. It's also worth pointing out that Miami's offense isn't great and has struggled against some pretty average defenses in their last two games in the Seminoles and Tar Heels. Hokies should also get a boost defensively playing at home in a nationally televised weekday game. UNDER is 9-2 in Hokies last 11 conference games and 16-5 in Miami's last 21 when playing on Thursday. Give me the UNDER 53! 

50* NFL *AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR* (Over 47.5) 

I believe we just got a glimpse of what this Patriots offense is capable of doing in last week's game against the Browns. Had it not been the Browns, who aren't believed to be a good defensive team, this total would be much higher. Last time these two teams played, Brady and the Patriots put up 43 points on the Bengals back in 2014 and Cincinnati's defense is no where near as talented right now as it was two years ago. I know Cincinnati's offense hasn't been great, but I think they are going to have some success moving the ball here. New England's defense has put up solid numbers, but it's helped that 4 of their 5 games have come against the Dolphins, Texans, Bills and Browns. The Bengals have the most talented offense they have faced since the Cardinals in Week 1 and they allowed 21 in that game. I think this one easily gets past 50 points. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

40* NCAAF No Doubt Total Blowout (OVER 62)

I think we are catching some big time value on the total here. These two teams love offense and with Arizona State getting back starting quarterback Manny Wilkins, I see no reason why we won't see more than 62 points in this game. Colorado has scored 40+ points in 4 of their 6 games. They are however, coming off a 17-point effort at USC, which is part of the low total we are seeing. The defense has played well at times, but have also allowed 45 to Michigan and 38 to Oregon. With Wilkins this Arizona State team scored 44, 68, 32 and 51 points in their first 4 games. They are going to need to score, because their defense has no shot here against Colorado's offense. Sun Devils have allowed 40+ on 3 different occasions. Whenever ASU is playing a good offensive team, the game tends to be very high-scoring. The OVER is 11-3 in their last 14 games against teams who are averaging 425 or more total yards per game and the average score in these games is 80.9. As you can see, we are getting a ton of value. Give me the OVER 62! 

40* NCAAF Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 62.5)

I believe this total would be 70+ if it wasn't for UMass being perceived as such a bad team that can't score. While the Minutemen are averaging just 18.3 ppg, they have played 3 teams who are currently ranked in the Top 15 in the country in total defense. They showed what they are capable of when they put up 35 points and over 400 yards of offense against Mississippi State. Louisiana Tech's offense is more in line with the Bulldogs. They just allowed 52 last week to WKU and gave up 59 earlier this season against Texas Tech. That's a pretty good sign this UMass team can score in that 24-30 range. That should be plenty to push this well past the mark. Louisiana Tech has an explosive offense and UMass is not good defensively. The Minutemen rank 90th in the country in total defense and are 100th against the run. They have allowed 200+ rushing yards in each of their last 3 games and in those games have allowed 47, 31 and 36 points. The Bulldogs are averaging 39.2 ppg and I see no reason why they don't eclipse 40 points. Give me the OVER 62.5! 

40* NCAAF Blockbuster Total Crusher (Over 56)

I believe the fact that Mississippi State scored just 14-points in their loss to Auburn last week, combined with BYU only giving up 14 points to Michigan State, is providing us with some excellent value here on the OVER, as I think these two teams are going to combine for 60+ and may even get into the 70's. BYU's offense has really gained some steam of late and have scored 30+ in their last 3. Mississippi State has allowed 30+ in each of their last 2 and that includes their game at UMass, where they let the Minutemen put up 35 points and over 400 yards of offense. The key here is that BYU's defense has struggled against teams that run the spread offense and that's exactly what the Bulldogs do. Keep in mind just a couple weeks ago the Cougars played a game at home against Toledo on a Friday and that game ended 55-53 with a ridiculous 1,278 total yards combined between the two. Give me the OVER 56! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 44) 

My money is on the UNDER in tonight's AFC West showdown between the Chargers and Broncos. It's no secret that Denver's defense is legit and we know they are going to show up after a not so great showing last week at home against the Falcons. The Chargers defense hasn't looked great, but I think playing at home in this spot is going to bring out the best of them. I also think Denver's offense is a bit limited. Even more so tonight, without head coach Gary Kubiak, who is an excellent playcaller. The offensive line has also not been great of late and starting quarterback Trevor Siemian is playing hurt. You also have to take into account the last two meetings in San Diego have been low-scoring, both games finishing with 32 or less points. UNDER is also 10-2 in the Chargers last 12 home games after the first month of the season and 16-4 in their last 20 after gaining 350 or more passing yards in their previous game. Take the UNDER 44! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 45.5) 

The fact that Cam Newton isn't playing is going to have a lot of people looking to take the UNDER in this game, but I'm focusing more on what these two defenses will look like. Carolina let one of their starting corners go and the other is hurt. Jameis Winston and his weapons in the passing game are going to be able to pick up some big plays down the field. As for Tampa Bay's defense they are expected to be without both starting defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Clinton McDonald and potentially starting defensive end Robert Ayers (questionable). Keep in mind they are already minus three other defensive ends who were expected to contribute in Noah Spence, George Johnson and Jacquies Smith. Not only do I think both offenses have success here, but I think we also get a few turnovers that lead to quick scores and push this past the mark set by the books. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

40* NCAAF Late Night Total No Brainer (Over 71) 

You typically aren't going to be looking to play the OVER at 70+ points with Oregon State involved, but that just speaks volumes to how bad the Cal defense is. The Golden Bears have already allowed 30+ points 4 times in their first 5 games and that includes a game against an awful Hawaii team. With Oregon State playing at home and Cal likely not taking this one as serious as they should, I think the Beavers are going to make it 5 of 6 at 30 or more against the Bears defense. On the flip side of this, Cal is going to have zero problems moving the ball against this Oregon State defense, which comes in allowing 427 ypg. The Golden Bears could easily score 50+ in this one (already put up 50+ twice), which means we would need around just 21 points from the Beavers to push over the mark. As stated, I think the Beavers top 30 in this one. Wouldn't be surprised if we had this ticket cashed by the end of the 3rd or early 4th. Give me the OVER 71! 

40* NCAAF Blockbuster Total No Brainer (WKU/La Tech OVER) 

This game has all the makings of a shootout. Both teams are efficient in the passing game and are pass-first teams. Each will be going up against defenses who have struggled big time at stopping the pass. WKU is allowing 258 ypg through the air and it's even worse than that, as they have played two horrible passing teams in Rice and Houston Baptist. They allowed Alabama to throw for 351, Miami (OH) to throw for 339 and Vanderbilt of all teams to throw for 279. Louisiana Tech is allowing 373 passing yards per game over their last 3. I'm expecting a lot of big plays here and this one to cruise past 70 points. Give me the OVER 68!  

50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 54) 

I think the books have completely missed the mark here on the total in tonight's Sun Belt game between Georgia Southern and Arkansas State. The Eagles come in allowing just 19.7 ppg and the Red Wolves are averaging just 16.7 ppg, which is a big part of why we are seeing such a low total. However, Georgia Southern's defensive numbers are greatly aided by a soft schedule. The 4 teams they are playing are only averaging 23.2 ppg. Arkansas State on the other hand has played some pretty good defenses, as their opponents are only giving up 21.1 ppg. I think both offenses are going to thrive in this game. The Red Wolves do have some serious problems on defense and are going to struggle against a talented Eagles offense. As for the Arkansas State offense, they recently switched to Justice Hansen at quarterback, who has shown the ability to throw the ball deep. That's how you attack this Georgia Southern defense and it should lead to some big plays and more importantly quick scores. Give me the OVER 54! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 43) 

This game has a defense battle written all over it. Minnesota is 3-0 due in large part to the play of their defense. They come in averaging 21.3 ppg, but part of that is a result of some defensive scores. Offensively they are averaging just 265 yards/play. With that limited offense and great defense, Minnesota wants to grind out possessions and limit the opponents chances. The Giants defense didn't perform well last week against Washington, high-powered passing attack, but in their two previous games played really well. I see New York's stop unit playing really well against the limited Vikings offense. As long we don't get a bunch of turnovers that lead to immediate scores, I just don't see enough offense here to eclipse this total. Give me the UNDER 43! 

40* NFL Chiefs/Steelers SNF No Brainer (Over 47)

I think the books have missed the mark in this one. Pittsburgh's offense is no where near as bad as they looked last week against the Eagles on the road and the Chiefs defense is no where as good as they looked at home last week against the Jets, at least not until Justin Houston returns from injury. Pittsburgh simply didn't show up coming off the emotional letdown after that big win over division rival Cincinnati. I look for their offense to come to life at home in primetime, especially with the return of Le'Veon Bell to the lineup. New York actually moved the ball well against Kansas City's defense last week, but just had a turnover meltdown. Let's also not forget Week 1, when Philip Rivers carved up the Chiefs defense until his star wide out Keenan Allen went down with an injury. As for Kansas City's offense it has yet to play up to it's potential and should have no problem moving the chains against Pittsburgh's defense, which is basically just dropping everyone in coverage and forcing teams to drive the field with short underneath passes. Exactly what this Chiefs offense is built to do with Alex Smith. Give me the OVER! 

40* NCAAF No Doubt Total Dominator (UNC/FSU OVER 70) 

I think we are going to see touchdowns left and right on Saturday when the Seminoles host the Tar Heels. Both of these teams like to play at a fast pace and have special playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Both of these teams are having a horrible time against the run. UNC is giving up 5 yards/carry and FSU is allowing 5.5 yards/carry. Both offenses are going to stay ahead of the chains and that's going to allow them to take some shots deep and finish off drives with points. It's also worth noting that while these are conference opponents, they play on opposite sides and haven't faced each other since 2010, so neither will be all that well prepared for what they are going to see in this one. Both teams are averaging 40+ ppg and each is giving up 30 or more on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the OVER 70! 

40* NCAAF Sharp Money Total Crusher (UCF/ECU OVER 61) 

I think the books have completely missed the mark on the total in Saturday's AAC clash between UCF and East Carolina. The Pirates have scored just 15 and 17 points in their last two games, but both of those came on the road against Power 5 opponents in South Carolina and Virginia Tech. Despite not putting many points on the scoreboard, they had over 400 yards of total offense in both of those games. They should have no problem here putting up 30+ at home against the Knights, who are playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. On the flip side of things, the Pirates defense isn't very good and UCF is one of the most improved teams offensively in the country. The Knights are averaging 32.2 ppg after hanging 53 at FIU last week. Keep in mind this a team that averaged just 13.9 ppg last year. It's a result of the new uptempo offense installed by new head coach Scott Frost, who previously was the OC at Oregon. I see a lot of big plays from both teams and this one eclipsing the mark early in the 2nd half. Give me the OVER 61! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 45) 

Two desperate teams take the field on Thursday, as the Bengals and Dolphins are both going to play their hearts out to avoid starting the season 1-3. Both teams have plenty of reason to still believe they can turn things around after their 1-2 starts. Miami's two losses have come against the Seahawks and Patriots, while Cincinnati's two defeats have come to Pittsburgh and Denver. Bengals defense hasn't been great the first 3 weeks, but they get back the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who was suspended the first 3 games. We also have both teams missing key players offensively. Cincinnati remains without tight end Tyler Eifert. Miami is minus starting running back Arian Foster and tight end Jordan Cameron, not mention are banged up on the offensive line. Bengals offensive line has also struggled early on, as they are only averaging 82 ypg on the ground and have seen Dalton sacked 12 times in 3 games. Miami comes in having recorded 9 sacks in 3 games, which is tied for 7th in the league. Give me the UNDER 45! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 53.5) 

I'm expecting a lot of fireworks offensively for both teams, which should have this one going well over the total here. Both of these teams are expected to finish in the Top 10 in total offense. Atlanta is definitely on their way, as they are averaging 29.5 ppg and 451 ypg over their first two contests. They go up against a Saints defense that isn't anything to write home about. New Orleans did manage to score just 13 points last week at the Giants, but that's just what they do. The Saints score a ton of points at home and struggle to generate offense on the road. They should have no problem getting the offense going, as the Falcons are getting torched through the air so far this season, playing right into the hands of the Saints high-powered passing attack. Atlanta is giving up 7.4 yards/pass attempt and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.1% of their attempts. Give me the OVER 53.5! 

40* NFL Situational Total No Brainer (Over 47.5) 

All we are hearing about is how much the Packers offense is struggling and I believe that has created some value here on the total in Sunday's NFC North clash with the Lions. We have already seen Detroit's defense exposed by Andrew Luck and the Colts struggling offense in Week 1 and I look for Rodgers and company to do the same here. Keep in mind that Green Bay has played each of their first two on the road. The first against an inspired Jaguars team in some serious heat in Jacksonville and last week against the Vikings elite stop unit in their home opener in a new stadium on Sunday Night Football. I think Green Bay scores 30+ in this one and the Lions are more than capable of putting up some points of their own to push this over the mark. OVER is 41-22 in the Packers last 63 after scoring 14 or less and 16-5 in their last 21 off a road loss by 3 points or less. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

40* NCAAF Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 46.5) 

I'm expecting a defensive battle here between the Utes and Trojans on Friday night. Everyone is throwing USC under the bus after their two ugly losses to Alabama and Stanford and I think they are going to come out inspired because of it. As for Utah, there's no question they are going to come to play at home in the spotlight of a nationally televised night game. USC might not be equipped to slowdown Alabama or Stanford, but I think they can give Utah a lot of problems. The Utes are only averaging 26.0 ppg and have played two of their games against Southern Utah and San Jose State. In their lone game against someone not named Alabama or Stanford, USC's defense held Utah State to just 253 yards of total offense. I see a lot of long drives that will lead to more field goals than touchdowns, as both teams figure to try an establish the running game. Give me the UNDER 46.5! 

40* NCAAF Thursday Night Total No Brainer (Under 58) 

I think the value here is on the total and this one finishing under the mark of 58 set by the books. Clemson put up 59 points last week, but that was against an awful South Carolina State team. Prior to that they struggled in games against Auburn and Troy. I think this is going to prove to be a tough spot for them to put up a big number. Georgia Tech is a run-first team that wants to control the time of possession and limit their opponents chances. They are going to have to work for everything they get, as Clemson has an outstanding run defense and has had success in the past stopping the triple-option. Georgia Tech has had an easy schedule, but the defense has looked good. They should benefit here from playing at home in front of what will be a rowdy crowd. Each of the last 6 times these two have played each other in Atlanta, they have failed to score more than 57 points and I look for that trend to continue. Give me the UNDER 58! 

40* NFL Over/Under Total Dominator (Jaguars/Chargers Over 47) 

I look for a lot of points to be scored on Sunday between the Jaguars and Chargers. This is a tough spot for Jacksonville's defense, after they laid it all on the line at home last week against the Packers. Not to mention they had to travel across the country. Even without Keenan Allen, San Diego's offense is capable of putting up a big number. As for Jacksonville's offense, I believe it's the real deal and will be one of the higher scoring teams this season. I think these two easily combine for 50 or more on Sunday. Give me the OVER 47! 

40* NCAAF Friday Night Bookie Beatdown (Baylor/Rice OVER 65) 

I'm not interested in the spread on this one, but I really like the value here on the OVER at 65. Baylor only scored 6 points in the first half last week against SMU, but got things going with a 34-point explosion in the 2nd half. Art Briles might be gone, but the Bears are still running his uptempo offense that can score in the matter of seconds. I think Baylor is going to come out looking to put on a show in the national spotlight of this weekday game on ESPN and I don't think Rice is going to be able to stop them. The Owls have already given up 46 to WKU and 31 to Rice. With that said, I do expect Rice to be better offensively in their home opener. I also don't see Baylor being 100% locked in on defense with this game coming on short rest and their conference opener on deck. I think we get a 51-24 type of game with the potential for more. Give me the OVER 65! 

40* NFL No Doubt Over/Under Knockout (Giants/Cowboys Over 46)

I want to take Dallas here, but I feel the real value is with the over on the total. All the talk now is about how Dak Prescott isn't going to be able to match his success in the preseason. I know you can't overreact to what you see in the preseason, but how many other quarterbacks put up numbers similar to what he did against those vanilla defenses. I love the confidence Prescott plays with and his mobility in the pocket. He's got the best offensive line in the league in front of him and I believe opposing teams are going to have to load the box to try and stop their rushing attack. I know the Giants spent a lot of money on defense, but that doesn't mean they are going to be an elite unit. It's hard to play great defense when you can't get to the quarterback. On the flip side of things, Dallas' defense has no one that can put pressure on the quarterback and that's going to lead to a huge day for Eli Manning and the Giants offense. I see a shootout at AT&T Stadium on Sunday. Give me the OVER 46! 

40* NFL Blockbuster Total No Brainer (Raiders/Saints Over 51.5) 

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in this one. I think we have two of the better offenses in the league going up against one another and I don't see either defense putting up much resistance. There's been plenty of talk about how Oakland is improved on defense, but I still have my concerns. Plus, better defenses have went into the Superdome and failed miserably trying to slow down Drew Brees and the Saints high-powered offense. As for the New Orleans defense, it looks to be every bit as bad as it was a year ago. The Saints aren't going to let their foot off the gas and that should lead to a shootout. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

50* NCAAF Vegas Insider Top Play (Louisville/Syracuse OVER 68)

I don't hate Syracuse and the points, but I feel the real value here is on the total and it going over the mark of 68. Both of these teams have strong quarterbacks, playmakers at the skill positions and like to play at a fast pace. I know the opener was against Charlotte, but not many teams could hang 56 points in the 1st half against, let alone score that many in an entire game. Keep in mind that was a Charlotte team that had 16 returning starters and in the 4th year under head coach Brad Lambert. I believe Louisville is one of the best offensive teams in the country and are going to have no problem moving the ball against the Orange. Let's not forget they played late last season and the Cardinals scored 41 points on 579 yards of offense. That was with Syracuse playing a grind it out style offensively. That's no longer the case under new head coach Dino Babers, who is bringing his uptempo offense that he learned at Baylor to the Orange. Syracuse's new style offensively is going to give Louisville some problems, especially with this being played at the Carrier Dome, plus it's going to create more possessions for the Cardinals offense. I think these two eclipse 70 without much problem. Give me the OVER 68!