10* NFL - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Dolphins/Bengals OVER 47

I love the OVER 47 in Week 4's NFL Thursday Night Football matchup. I think we are at the point in the season where these Thursday games on a just 3 days of rest really have an impact on the teams playing. It's just really hard for NFL players to recover in just 3 days and I feel it has the biggest impact on the defensive side of the ball, where energy and effort are so big to defenses playing well. 

With that said, I think we could really see Miami's defense struggle to get stops in this game. Not only are the Dolphins playing on the road on a short week, they are coming off that massive upset win against the Bills. 

You also can't be fooled about Miami's defense holding the Bills to just 19 points. Buffalo beat themselves in that game. The Bills had 497 yards of total offense in that game. The week before we saw Miami's defense give up 38 points and 473 yards to the Ravens. 

I have a hard time believing that the Dolphins are going to be able to slow down Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense, which should keep getting better as Burrow gets more comfortable after missing all that time in the offseason. 

At the same time, I think the Bengals will have a tough time slowing down this Miami offense. The Dolphins have two of the most electric wide outs in the game in Waddle and Hill, who can put points on the board in a blink of an eye. Sure the Bengals defense has looked good to this point, but they have played an awful Steelers offense, a Cowboys offense without Dak and the Jets. Give me the OVER 47! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Falcons/Seahawks OVER 42

I'm going to take the OVER 42 in Sunday's game between the Falcons and Seahawks. I came into the season with very low expectations for Seattle's defense. So far it's worse than I thought.

Them holding the Broncos to just 16 points in their upset win in Week 1 was a complete fluke. Denver racked up 433 total yards and averaged 6.8 yards/play with 20 1st downs and a 53% conversion rate on 3rd downs. The Broncos had back-to-back drives to start the 2nd half where they fumbled the ball on the Seahawks 1-yard line. They also had at least 30 yards on every possession, punting just once. 

Then in their game against the 49ers they gave up 373 yards and 25 first downs, allowing San Francisco to convert 6 of 15 first downs. Keep in mind they also had no real incentive to score in the 2nd half with a big lead and this is already a team that wants to take the air out of the ball with the run game. 

I don't see them slowing down the Falcons in this game. Atlanta may be 0-2, but I've really liked what I've seen out of this team offensively. Marcus Mariota looks like he belongs on the field. The Falcons come into this game averaging 26.5 ppg, 146 rushing yards/game and 338 yards/game having played two of the better defensive teams in the league in the Saints and Rams. 

The other key for me is I think the Seattle offense is better than the perception right now. They too have played their first two games against two of the top defensive teams. Say what you want about Russell Wilson and the Denver offense, the Broncos defense looks like the real deal and I would put San Francisco up their with the Bills and Chargers for the best defense in the league. 

I think Geno Smith and that offense will be able to generate some offense. They got no choice here but to try and go score for score with the other team and the Falcons are a definitely a defense they can have success against. Atlanta is giving up 29.0 ppg and 6.3 yards/play vs teams who on average are scoring 19.5 ppg and averaging 5.4 yards/play. Just looks at what they gave up to the Saints and Rams and how those two teams looked offensively in their other game. 

I'm really shocked this total is as low as it is, as I think this will easily get into the 50s. Give me the OVER 42! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Bills/Dolphins OVER 52

I really like the OVER 52 in Sunday's big showdown between AFC East rivals Buffalo and Miami. I know these are two division rivals and division games have a tendency to be lower scoring. I don't care. I just think the Bills are so good offensively that there's too much value at this number to not play the OVER. 

There's just no stopping this Buffalo offense with the way they are currently constructed and the level at which Josh Allen is playing the quarterback position. They had 31 points in their opener against the Rams and turned the ball over 4 times. They didn't punt once in the entire game against LA and not once in the 1st half against the Titans. Miami just gave up 473 yards and 38 points to the Ravens last week, letting Lamar Jackson throw for 318 yards and 3 scores on 21 of 29 passing. 

The big key here is I think Miami has the offensive fire-power, especially in the passing game, to go score for score with Buffalo. Even more so with the injuries that the Bills are dealing with both on the defensive line and in their secondary. Three of their top 4 defensive tackles are questionable. They are down two starting corners Tre-Davious White and Dane Jackson and both safeties, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are not 100%. 

I think if we get a mere 3 TDs from Miami, this thing is going to fly past the number. Give me the OVER 52! 

10* NFL Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Chiefs/Colts OVER 50

I love the OVER 50 in Sunday's Week 3 NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Colts. I'm actually shocked this number is as low as it is. I know it was the defense that stepped up and really carried KC to a victory last week in their big game against the Chargers, but there might not be a better top to bottom defensive unit in the NFL than what LA has on the field. 

Mahomes was still able to complete 24 of 35 attempts for 235 yards and 2 TDs. Good but not great numbers. I expect the offense to resemble more of what we saw in their 44-21 win over the Cardinals in Week 1. A game in which they had 488 total yard with Mahomes throwing for 360 and 5 scores. 

Especially after watching how poorly the Colts looked in last week's 24-0 loss to the Jaguars. They let Trevor Lawrence complete 25 of 30 attempts. They are going to have no answer for this Chiefs offense. 

The key here is I do think the Colts will be able to at least score enough here to make it somewhat competitive. Getting shutout by the Jags is bad, but the Colts were very thin in that game at receiver. They are getting guys back at that spot and will be facing a Chiefs defense that could be a little flat after that huge game against the Charger and Tom Brady and the Bucs looming next week. KC also lost one of their better defensive players in linebacker Willie Gay to a 4-game suspension. I'm seeing like a 38-28 type of game here with the potential for even more scoring. Give me the OVER 50! 

9* NCAAF Friday Night NO-BRAINER: Virginia/Syracuse OVER 52.5

I really like the OVER 52.5 to cash in Friday's ACC matchup between Virginia and Syracuse. I think we are getting close to a TD in terms of value, as my numbers suggest a total closer to 60.

Part of the reason I believe we are seeing a low total is the fact that the Cavaliers have seen the UNDER cash in all 3 of their games and in their one true test they scored just 3-points on the road vs Illinois. Also, while the Orange did give up 29 last week to Purdue, they did hold Malik Cunningham and a good Louisville offense to just 7 points in their opener. 

At the same time, I don't think people have quite caught on to just how improved this Syracuse offense is. We knew the Orange would be a strong running team with a back like Sean Tucker. What's taken this offense to another level is their improved passing attack.

Garrett Shrader has completed 66.2% of his attempts, is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and has a 8-0 TD-INT ratio. Last year, Syracuse as a team averaged just 153 yards, completed 54.4% of their attempts and ended the year with their quarterbacks posting a mere 10-6 TD-INT ratio. 

I don't think it's a fluke. Orange added in former Virginia OC Robert Anae to be their new OC this year. Anae really built up that Cavaliers offense. You might be thinking it could be an advantage for Virginia to know the offense that Syracuse is running, but the Cavaliers completely overhauled their staff for new head coach Tony Elliott. 

Orange have scored at least 31 in each of their first 3 games and should easily hit that mark against what I think is a very overrated Virginia defense. The Cavaliers come in giving up just 18.3 ppg and 350 yards/game, but have played an awful ODU offense, a FCS foe in Richmond and while they held Illinois to 24, the Illini could have easily had 40 in that game. 

The big concern is how will Virginia's offense do. I'm confident they will be able to at least get into the 20s. The Cavaliers have one of the better QBs in the ACC in Brennan Armstrong, a new offensive minded coach in Elliott (former OC at Clemson) and Syracuse's defense is built more to stop the run than it is the pass. 

I also think there's a potential here that the Orange defense comes out a bit flat in this game. You got to think that crazy finish against Purdue last week took a lot out of this Syracuse team and that lack of energy can really show up on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the OVER 52.5! 

10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Vikings/Eagles OVER 50

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and Eagles. I think these are two of the better offensive teams in the league. Both looked great in Week 1. 

Philadelphia put up 38 in Week 1 on the road against a much improved Lions team and didn't score a point in the 4th quarter after taking their foot off the gas up 38-21. Eagles had 216 rushing yards and 243 thru the air. I know the Vikings defense looked good in Week 1 against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but a lot of that had to do with Green Bay not playing any of their guys in the preseason. 

As for the Vikings offense, they scored 23 points, had 395 total yards and averaged 6.5 yards/play against a top tier Packers defense. Minnesota figures to be a Top 10, maybe Top 5, offense this season under new head coach Kevin O'Connell. Eagles defense gave up 35 points and 386 total yards to an average Lions offense. Minnesota should be able to do as they please in this one. Give me the OVER 50! 

8* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Commanders/Lions OVER 47.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 47.5 in Sunday's Week 2 matchup between the Lions and Commanders. I'm actually a little shocked this total isn't in the 50s after what we saw in Week 1. 

Both offenses really performed well last Sunday. Washington put up 28 points and 390 yards against the Jaguars. If not for 3 turnovers by the Commanders, they easily finish with over 30 points and 400 yards of offense. 

Detroit had 35 points and 386 yards of offense in a 35-38 loss to the Eagles. I know the Lions scored 3 of their 5 touchdowns after falling behind 14-31 in the 2nd half, but that had 38 combined points at the half and 59 after 3 quarters. I really think the way this Detroit team is built, they are going to find themselves in a lot of high scoring games. 

I also think the Commanders defense isn't very good, at least until Chase Young returns from his knee injury. They gave up 383 total yards and 6.2 yards/play to the Jaguars in Week 1. Trevor Lawrence, who might have the worst receiving corps in the NFL threw for 275 and Jacksonville averaged 6.8 yards/carry on the ground. This to me has shootout written all over it. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Panthers/Giants OVER 43

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 43 in Sunday's matchup between the Giants and Panthers. I came into this season really excited about the potential of New York's offense, as I expect some pretty significant improvements now that Brian Daboll as their head coach. They also added Mike Kafa as their OC, who comes over after serving as an assistant under Andy Reid in Kansas City. 

It was why I really like the OVER 43.5 in the Giants Week 1 game against Tennessee. Even with the Giants getting shutout in the 1st half of that game, we would have cashed the OVER had the Titans kicker hit a 47-yarder at the end of regulation. 

Considering that the Giants averaged 6.8 yards/play (3rd best mark of any team in Week 1 behind on the Chiefs and Bills) and the Titans averaged 6.0 yards/play (9th best), it's hard to believe we didn't get the OVER in that game. 

With that said, I'm not letting that outcome keep me from backing the OVER with the Giants in Week 2, as we see a mere total of 43. 

Much like the Giants in Week 1, Carolina's offense was basically a no show for the 1st half before coming alive in the 2nd half. Panthers had just 7 points going into the 4th quarter and finished with 24. I know Mayfield didn't play great, but that's a pretty good Browns defense. He should have a much easier time against this Giants defense. I also would expect a little more out of Christian McCaffrey. 

As for the Panthers defense, I think they are solid on that side of the ball, but we did see them give up 26 points to the Browns who don't offer much of a threat in the passing game with Brissett at quarterback. Daniel Jones will be a much tougher challenge to stop and I could see the Panthers having a difficult time containing Saquon Barkley, which is going to only make it easier on Jones with the defense forced to play the run. Give me the OVER 43! 

9* NCAAF Friday Night ACC NO-BRAINER: FSU/Louisville UNDER 57.5

I really like the UNDER 57.5 in Friday's ACC matchup between Florida State and Louisville. I just have a hard time seeing this turn into a shootout. Both these teams have dual threat QBs who are a much bigger threat to run than they are to pass. The threat for big plays is definitely there, but for the most part these are two offenses that want to methodically move the ball down the field. 

I came into the season extremely high on Louisville's offense, as I thought quarterback Malik Cunningham was going to take a big step forward. I just haven't seen it in his first two games. The Cardinals could do nothing in their opener at Syracuse, scoring just 7 points and gaining 334 total yards. They did manage to put up over 400 yards in their win over UCF last week, but only managed to score 20 points. 

I just don't think they are built to have success against this Florida State defense. Seminoles returned 8 starters and added in some nice pieces on defense via the portal. I was very impressed with how they played against LSU. They held a potent Tigers offense to just 348 total yards, had 4 sacks and 6 tackles for loss. They did struggle to contain LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, who had 114 yards on 16 attempts. However, the rest of the team had just 25 rushing yards on 14 attempts. 

Louisville's defense has been a bit spotty in their first two games, especially against the run, but keep in mind that both of those were on the road. Defenses usually perform better at home and typically will get a big boost in these prime time weekday games. FSU had 392 total yards and were 11 for 17 on 3rd downs, yet still only scored 24 against LSU. I think the Cardinals can keep them below 30, which should in term have this game finishing in the upper 40s/low 50s. Give me the UNDER 57.5! 

8* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Giants/Titans OVER 43.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 in Sunday's NFL matchup between the Giants and Titans. I was shocked to see this total this low. I'm expecting major improvements from the Giants offense this year after they were one of the worst in the league last year. 

It's not so much the players the Giants added offensively, but the guy calling the shots. I'm a big Brian Daboll fan and really believe he's the guy that transformed Josh Allen into the quarterback he is now. I'm not saying he's going to take Daniel Jones to that level, but he's going to be better. The offense is going to be more pass happy than it's been and as a result will score a lot more than the 15.2 ppg they averaged last year. 

Defensively New York was 25th against the run and the entire defense to me is a big question mark going into this season. I just don't know that the talent is there and I think it's asking a lot for them to have to try to contain what I think is going to be a hungry and motivated Derrick Henry. When Henry has it going, it opens up the entire offense for Tennessee. 

I got both teams scoring well into the 20s and for these two to push the 50-point mark. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

10* NCAAF - SEC Total PLAY OF THE MONTH: S Carolina/Arkansas OVER 52.5

I will take my chances with the OVER 52.5 in Saturday's SEC matchup between Arkansas and South Carolina. This to me is just way too low a total for a game involving the Razorbacks. 

Arkansas is absolutely loaded on the offensive side of the ball and it starts with sophomore quarterback KJ Jefferson, who somehow is still flying a bit under the radar. Jefferson is special and the biggest reason why the Razorbacks went 9-4 last year after not winning more than 4 games in any of the previous 4 seasons. It also helps he's playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the country. Arkansas put up 30.9 ppg and 442 ypg last year and will easily top that in 2022. 

They scored 31 points with 447 yards against Cincinnati in the opener. I know the Bearcats lost some guys on the defensive side of the ball, but that was far from a pushover for the Arkansas offense. I don't see South Carolina's defense being able to stop them, especially with the game in Fayetteville. 

The key here is I also think South Carolina's offense is poised to put up some points in this game. They gave up 438 yards (325 passing) to a Cincinnati offense that lost one of their all-time best QBs in Desmond Ridder, as well as their top back and leading receiver. 

Both starting safety Jalen Catalon and starting nickel corner Myles Slusher were hurt in that game and did not return. Good chance neither play on Saturday. 

South Carolina's offense wasn't overly impressive in their win against Georgia State, but remember they got former Oklahoma starter Spencer Rattler under center. Rattler can spark big plays and quick scores and he's also one that will take chances and give the ball away, setting up short fields and quick scores for the other side. Give me the OVER 52.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: Bills/Rams OVER 52

My money is on the OVER 52 in Thursday's highly anticipated season opener between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams. I don't see these two teams have any problem eclipsing this number. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if this thing went well into the 60s. 

These were two of the best offenses in the league last year. The Rams finished 9th in the NFL in total offense (372.1 ypg) and T-7th in scoring (27.1 ppg). Buffalo has the No. 5 ranked total offense (381.9 ypg) and the No. 3 ranked scoring offense (28.4 ppg). 

I don't see any letdown coming from Josh Allen and the Bills offense in 2022. I also love the matchup for Buffalo in this one. The Bills are a pass-first offense and the Rams are much better suited at stopping the run. LA was 22nd in the league last year defending the pass (241.7 ypg). 

The big concern some might have is the health of Matthew Stafford's elbow and LA facing what many believe to be a strong Bills defense. I personally think the injury is being a bit overblown. If it was serious he wouldn't be out there in Week 1.

I also think Buffalo's defense comes in way overrated. When you look at who who they played and who was on the field when they played their opponents, the Bills caught a lot of breaks. They are also going to be starting the season without Tre-Davious White.

Look for new Rams wide out Allen Robinson to play a big role, as I feel he was one of the more underrated signings in the entire offseason. Give me the OVER 52! 

10* NCAAF Friday Night TOTAL NO-BRAINER: TCU/Colorado OVER 55

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 55 in Friday's Power 5 non-conference matchup between TCU and Colorado. I don't think these two teams will have any problem getting to 60 points and it could even go into the 70s. 

A big reason I'm so high on the OVER is I think people are really sleeping on this TCU offense. The Horned Frogs brought in Sonny Dykes to replace Gary Patterson and Dykes knows how to put up points. In his last 3 years at SMU, the Mustangs put up monster numbers. Even better is Dykes was able to bring along his OC Garrett Riley. 

These two will take over an offense that returns 10 starters from a unit that averaged a misleading 28.7 ppg. I say misleading, because they averaged a healthy 436 ypg (17 more ypg than they had in 2017 when they averaged 33.6 ppg. 

They got options at quarterback with the return of starter Max Duggan and backup Chandler Morris, who transferred in from Oklahoma last year (had 461 passing yards vs Oklahoma and could overtake Duggan). 

They get back a stud RB in Kenre Miller, return their top 4 pass catchers and on paper have one of the best O-lines in the country. I think they easily average a TD more a game and really should feast on what figures to be a sub-par Colorado defense. 

They key here is I think the Buffaloes will also be able to generate some offense. Colorado isn't elite offensively, but should be greatly improved over the unit that averaged just 18.8 ppg and 257 ypg last year. TCU's defense will be improved, but they are in the first year of a new system and gave up 34.9 ppg and 462 ypg in 2021. Give me the OVER 55! 

40* (NFL) - Bengals/Titans VEGAS INSIDER (Over 47.5) 

I think we are going to see plenty of offensive fire-works in Saturday's AFC Divisional Round matchup between the Bengals and Titans. I just don't think either of these defenses are going to be able to slow down the other side. 

I think Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense is peaking at the right time. They finished up the regular-season scoring 41 against Baltimore and 34 against KC before resting their starters in Week 18 against the Browns. They put up a respectable 26 last week against the Raiders in the Wild Card round, but that was about as bad an outcome they could have had. Cincinnati had to settle for 4 FGs and 3 of those were chip shots (35 yds or less). 

Titans defense put up some impressive numbers down the stretch, but a lot of that is who they played. Tennessee had about as easy a schedule as you could imagine in the 2nd half. Big reason why they were able to secure the No. 1 seed. 

On the flip side, you got Derrick Henry back for the Titans offense and he's up against a soft Bengals run defense. I do have some concerns about how effective Henry will be after the long break and coming off a pretty serious injury, but they don't call him the King for nothing.This is also not an elite Cincinnati defense. Titans can move the ball thru the air if they have to. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

40* (NFL) Eagles/Bucs VEGAS INSIDER (Under 46.5) 

I really like the UNDER at 46.5 for Sunday's Wild Card opener between the Buccaneers and the Eagles. I think both teams could have a real tough time moving the football. Tampa Bay is not the offense it was to start the year. The losses of Brown and Godwin are huge and for as much hate AB gets, there's no denying the impact he had when he was on the field. I also think not having Fournette is a much bigger deal than people realize. 

This is a game they really could have used him. With winds blowing at more than 20 mph straight down the field, the team going into the wind is really going to have to rely on running the ball. 

While running the football is what this Eagles offense is built around, this Buccaneers front when they are locked in, are arguably the toughest front in the league to run the football against. I just don't see where the offense is going to come from to get in the upper 40s. Give me the UNDER 46.5! 

40* (NFL) - Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER (Under 48.5) 

These two teams combined for just 45 points in their meeting during the regular season and they were lucky to get to that number. It was a 13-6 game going into the 4th quarter and 16-13 with just over 5 minutes to play. Neither team managed to eclipse 300 yards of total offense. Bengals had just 288 and the Raiders had 278. 

While both of these teams have quarterbacks who can throw the ball and some guys who can go get it, the problem is both of these offensive lines aren't very good. The defensive lines for both of these teams should dominate this game. Mother Nature also figures to play a role in keeping it a little lower scoring with temps expected to be below freezing and a slight cross wind. Give me the UNDER 48.5! 

40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 41.5) 

I got no problem taking my chances with the UNDER 41.5 in Sunday's meaningless game between the Seahawks and Lions. Detroit's offense has been one of the worst in the NFL this season and Seattle has been no where close to efficient offensively as they have been in the past. Seahawks are only scoring 20.4 ppg, while the Lions are at 17.3 ppg and that drops to 14.9 ppg on the road. 

Detroit's not as bad defensively as you would expect for a team that is just 2-12, as they have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 20 or fewer. 

Both defenses are going to get some help from Mother Nature in this game, as it's going to be miserable conditions to play offense in Seattle on Sunday. Not only is their 92% of precipitation, there's going to be close to 20 mph winds during this game. Both teams are going to be forced into running it a lot more than they would like, which will lead to fewer possessions and this game staying well below the number. Give me the UNDER 41.5! 

40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total DESTROYER (Under 46.5) 

I like the value we are getting with the UNDER at 46.5 in Sunday's non-conference matchup between the Rams and Ravens. Not to concerned with who starts at quarterback for Baltimore, I just think the conditions here are going to help keep this under the mark. 

While it's expected to be a modest 62 degrees in Baltimore for this game, there's a 50% of rain and most importantly it will be windy, with close to 20 mph blowing across the field throughout the game. That's going to make throwing the ball a lot harder, which really helps out the Ravens defense against this Rams offense. 

Baltimore's biggest problem defensively has been the inability of the secondary to cover. There just isn't going to be the same opportunities for the Rams offense in the passing game with that wind. Same goes for Baltimore, who would likely have a hard time moving the ball on this Rams defense in perfect conditions. Give me the UNDER 46.5! 

40* (CFB) - Peach Bowl Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5)

I think with the news that Kenny Pickett won't play for Pitt and Kenneth Walker will sit out for Michigan State, has created some value with the OVER at just 55.5. I still think there is going to be a lot of offense and wouldn't be shocked at all if they went over the original total of 63. 

I think people just assume a team is going to implode when they lose a talent like Pickett at quarterback, but I got a lot of faith in backup Nick Patti to step in and have a big game. Patti has performed well when he's got a chance. The even bigger thing is the defense he will be up against. Michigan State's secondary is atrocious. They gave up 338 yards/game thru the air this year. 

Walker was a big part of the Spartans offense, but less running is good thing when you are taking an OVER and with star wideout Jalen Nailor expected back from a hand injury, I think Michigan State is going to be able to move the football and put up their fair share of points. Give me the OVER 55.5! 

50* (CFB) - Non-Playoffs BOWL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 54.5) 

I think the books have completely missed the mark with this total. I get that Air Force only gave up 19.1 ppg and 289 ypg on the season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule. The Falcons didn't play a single Power 5 opponent in non-conference play. 

The two best offenses they faced in MWC play were arguably Utah State and Nevada. They lost 45-49 to the Aggies and won 41-39 over the Wolfpack. 

Louisville is without a couple wideouts, but they got a top tier talent at quarterback in Malik Jackson and he's more than enough weapons to work with. 

Not only do I think the Cardinals will score a bunch, but I don't think the Louisville defense will be able to slow down Air Force's triple-option. They weren't a good run defense and have not seen an offense like this in a long time. Give me the OVER 54.5! 

50* (CFB) - Mizzu/Army MAX UNIT Top Play (Over 53) 

I think we have had a bit of perfect storm that has created a golden opportunity to play the OVER. Army is coming off that defensive battle against Navy and I just think the perception here is that with a team like the Black Knights that want to run, run and run some more, there's not going to be as much scoring. 

That can be the case if they are playing a team that can stop the run, but that's not the case here. Missouri has one of the worst run defenses in the country. They finished the year giving up 229 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry vs the run. We saw Army rush for 416 yards and score 56 points against Wake Forest, so it's not like they can't score a bunch with that offense. 

The other big thing here is Missouri's top running back Tyler Badie (led SEC in rushing) won't play and they are going to give freshman Brady Cook his first start. Not having Badie is a big deal, but I do think the Tigers got some decent backs who can step in and have success, as the Mizzu o-line should have an edge against the Army defensive front. 

As for Cook, he's played sparingly and impressed. He played in their blowout loss against Georgia and completed 14 of 19 attempts. You got to think they are going to let him sling it in this game and he's going to have to with how much the defense figures to struggle. Give me the OVER 53! 

40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 42) 

I'm going to take the UNDE 42 in Tuesday's NFC East matchup between the Eagles and Football Team. I just don't see either team doing a whole lot offensively in this game. 

While we are still waiting to see who is going to play for Washington, we know they are going to have most of their defensive line in tact and this is a unit that has been outstanding against the run. Philly also loves to run the ball and I don't think they are going to feel the need to force the pass game with how much the Football Team is going to struggle offensively. 

Washington's top two QBs, Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen didn't travel with the team. Both do have until 4 pm to get cleared to play, but it seems a bit unlikely. Football Team is also going to be missing two starting offensive linemen, backup running back J.D. McKissic and wideout Curtis Samuel. You also got to factor in the lack of practice time this team has had, even with the game getting moved back. Give me the UNDER 42! 

40* (CFB) - Myrtle Beach Bowl NO-BRAINER (Under 54) 

I like the UNDER in the Myrtle Beach Bowl between Tulsa and Old Dominion. I just don't see a shootout in this game. These are two teams that offensively want to run the football and both will be up against a couple of solid run defenses. Tulsa only gives up 3.9 yards/carry, which is really impressive given they have played Cincinnati, Ohio State and Oklahoma State. ODU only gives up 3.5 yards/carry, which is almost a 0.5 yard under what their opponents average. 

All this running is going to lead to some long empty possessions that either lead to no points or a field goal, which is exactly what we want. Give me the UNDER 54! 

50* (NFL) - Chiefs/Chargers MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 51.5) 

I love the UNDER on Thursday Night Football this week. Even after all the struggles we have seen from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense this year, the public still sees this team as a this offensive juggernaut. Largely because of what we saw from this offense the last two years. 

I know they just put up 48 points in a blowout win over the Raiders this past Sunday, but a lot of that was A) Las Vegas turned the ball over 5 times, B) the Raiders refusal to play the cover-2 shell that has given Mahomes so much trouble. KC only had 372 total yards. Mahomes completed 20 of 24 but for just 258. 

This Chiefs offense is so much more methodical. There's not near as many explosive plays and quick scoring drives. At least, against every other team not named the Raiders. The Chargers aren't stupid. They will play the cover-2 shell and make Mahomes dink and dunk and force Andy to run it more than he wants. 

The other big thing with KC and the UNDER is the play of their defense. You can say what you want about who the schedule has dealt them of late, but you can't be a bad defense and go 3 straight games in today's NFL and give up fewer than 10 points. It's night and day from what this defense looked like to start the year. 

Chris Jones will be out, which is a huge part of that defense. However, I think it's even bigger that the Chargers are down starting tackle and by far their best linemen in Rashawn Slater. Frank Clark has been wreaking havoc off the edge and Melvin Ingram is a force on the other side. I think that pressure combined with one of the most underrated secondaries in the NFL will make it really hard on Herbert and that Chargers offense to do a whole lot. Give me the UNDER 51.5! 

40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 53) 

We took a brutal beat on the OVER last week in the Bucs/Falcons game, but that's not going to keep me from playing the OVER in another Tampa Bay game this week. In fact, I like this one even more with the Bills coming to town. 

I just think with the way Tom Brady and this Bucs offense is clicking right now and the injuries that Tampa Bay has on the defensive side of the ball, mainly the secondary, they are going to find themselves in some high scoring games. 

I certainly don't think a Bills defense that just recently lost their star corner, Tre'Davious White, is going to be able to slow down this Bucs passing game. On top of that, I think Buffalo's defense is way overrated, as their numbers have been drastically inflated given all the bad offenses they have faced. 

Key here is I like Josh Allen and this Bills offense to be able to go score for score with the Bucs. Buffalo is built around the passing game and whether it's been Mother Nature or just some top tier secondaries, they haven't been able to showcase it of late. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams eclipsed 30 in this one. Give me the OVER 53! 

40* (NFL) - OVER/UNDER Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 50) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in Sunday's NFC South matchup between the Falcons and Bucs. I don't love to play OVERs in division games, but these two have a history of putting points on the board. They combined for 73 in Tampa's 48-25 win in Week 2 and have combined for at least 50 in each of the last 7 meetings. 

I think the reason we are getting some value with the OVER is what we have seen out of this Atlanta offense the past few weeks. They scored just 3 points in an ugly loss against Dallas, were shutout at home by the Patriots and scored just 21 last week against the Jags. 

I'm not saying they are going to breakout of their slump and put up 30+ in this game, but I do think it's a good matchup for the Falcons offense. This Tampa Bay defense is great against the run, but not so great against the pass.  Matt Ryan and that Atlanta offense know how to exploit this Bucs defense and I'm confident they can put up 20+ points. 

Note that prior to playing Carson Wentz and the Colts last week, who they allowed to rack up nearly 400 yards and score 31 points despite having 4 turnovers, they had played a string of games against bad QBs. Their previous 6 games saw them go up against the likes of Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke, Trevor Siemian, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts and Jacoby Brissett. 

I just think it's a good time to sell high on this Tampa Bay defense, as well as buy low on the Bucs offense. While Tampa Bay still might not have Antonio Brown back, they did just get back tight end Rob Gronkowski and he had a huge game with 7 catches for 123 yards on a team-high 10 targets. 

You also got to look at the caliber of defense the Bucs will be up against. The Falcons have shown no ability to slow down a good offense and I believe that's a direct result of them not being able to get pressure. Atlanta's 15 sacks are the fewest in the league. If you can't get to Brady and make him uncomfortable, it's game over. I got the Bucs easily getting into the 30s in this game and could see them topping 40. Give me the OVER 50! 

50* (CFB) - PAC-12 Oregon/Utah TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 58.5)

I love the UNDER 58.5 in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game between Utah and Oregon. These two teams just played a couple weeks ago in Utah. The Utes embarrassed the Ducks 38-7, ending all hope for Oregon to make the College Football Playoff. 

As good as Utah looked in that win, you can't underestimate how much of an advantage they had playing that game at home. I think we are going to see a much better effort defensively from Oregon in the rematch, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

I also think that these are two teams that want to establish the run. Utah ran it 50 times in the win over the Ducks a couple weeks ago and Oregon's a team that averages close to 40 rush attempts per game on the season. 

I just think it's going to be a defensive battle with both teams struggling to not only sustain drives, but finish them off in the red zone with touchdowns. Give me the UNDER 58.5! 

50* (NFL) Cowboys/Saints MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 47.5) 

I'm not going to lie, I was hoping for a little better injury news for the Saints, especially on the offensive line at the two tackle positions. Either way, I still think this game will go over the total. 

The biggest thing you got to remember with the Saints offense is that they are going up against an overrated Cowboys defense. Yes, Dallas forces a lot of turnovers, but they also rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. I also think having Taysom Hill gives that offense some life and his mobility will be crucial with that Cowboys pass rush up against a depleted Saints o-line. 

I also think there's a chance we don't need New Orleans to do a lot. I really think this Cowboys offense could put up 40+. I don't think this Saints defense is anywhere close to as good as what they get credit for. Their secondary is awful and they are up against one of, if not the, best passing attacks in the league. I also think this Cowboys offense is dying to make a statement after the poor showings and injuries they have had to encounter the last few weeks. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

40* (NFL) - Bills/Saints Prime Time MONEYMAKER (UNDER 45.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 45.5 in Thanksgiving night cap between the Bills and Saints. I just don't see a lot of offense for either team in this game. 

Josh Allen and the Bills are just not clicking offensively right now. Outside of that big game against the Jets, who is atrocious defensively, they haven't been playing up to their potential for weeks. Most point to the game against the Jags as the start, but they weren't great in their win against the Dolphins the week before and last week couldn't do anything against a pretty suspect Colts secondary. 

Now they go on the road against a good Saints defense that is going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder after getting run all over by the Eagles last week. I just don't see a repeat of that for New Orleans and it's pretty simple. Buffalo can't run the ball. 

On the flip side, things aren't looking much better for the Saints offense. Trevor Siemian is not the answer at quarterback and he's being asked to do too much with Alvin Kamara sidelined. Add in an offensive line that figures to be down 3 starters and it's hard to see them doing much against a similarly pissed off Bills defense. Give me the UNDER 45.5! 

40* (NFL) - Bears/Lions Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 41) 

I know there's not a lot to get excited about with this game and I think given the quarterback situation for these two teams, as well as their recent performances, most will have a hard time seeing a lot of offense in this game. 

I'm not saying it's going to be a shootout by any means, but I do think at 41 the total here is too low, especially with both teams playing on no rest. Not to mention I think we are buying at the all-time low with both of these offenses right now. 

Chicago will have to go with Andy Dalton over Justin Fields. I get it. Dalton isn't sexy and doesn't offer much on the ground, but he gives that offense a better chance of succeeding right now. Teams just don't have to respect Fields throwing the ball. Even if it's just 3-yard dump offs, it makes the Lions play a little more honest. 

The other big key here is that I think we are going to see Jared Goff under center for the Lions. While he's nothing to get excited about, he's better than Boyle and he threw for 299 yards and 2 TDs in the first meeting with Chicago. I also think there's a chance here we could see a lackluster showing from the Bears defense, as it really feels like this team has given up on Naggy and this season. Give me the OVER 41! 

50* (NFL) Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 47.5) 

I love the UNDER 47.5 in Sunday's big NFC North showdown between the Packers and Vikings. I know Green Bay has an all-time great at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers, but their offense has been far from elite in 2021. The Packers are 19th in scoring at just 21.6 ppg and 20th in total offense at just 339.4 yards/game. Let's also not forget they are down their top back in Aaron Jones, have lost their top tight end in Robert Tonyan, could be without wideout Allen Lazard and have some injuries up front on the offensive line. 

The thing with Green Bay is they haven't needed their offense to be great to win games because their defense has been so good. They are making good quarterbacks look average at best. Just look at what they have done in their last 3 games against Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. It will be no different here against Kirk Cousins and what I think is a very overrated Vikings offense. '

Green bay hasn't had a game see more than 47 points since the calendar turned to October (7 straight games). Give me the UNDER 47.5! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total SHOCKER (Over 56) 

I think we are getting some great value with the OVER 56 in Saturday night's big Big 12 matchup between Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. I think a lot of people are hesitant to play the OVER with a team like the Cowboys who are so good defensively and not exactly an offensive juggernaut. 

The key here is that his Red Raiders defense is one they can exploit, much like they did last week in their 63-point outburst against a bad TCU defense. Texas Tech has already given up 50+ points in 3 Big 12 games, including 70 to Texas earlier in the year. They let an Oklahoma offense that looked lost against Baylor score 52 and they gave up 52 to TCU with the Horned Frogs throwing for just 104 yards on 10 pass attempts. 

I not only think the Cowboys are going to score, but I also think Texas Tech is good enough offensively that they at least get into the 20s and maybe even the 30s. In the last 8 meetings, which goes all the way back to 2013, Oklahoma State has not held the Red Raiders to fewer than 34 points and in 7 of those 8 meetings the two teams combined for at least 75 points. Give me the OVER 56! 

40* (CFB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 65.5) 

I have to take a shot on the UNDER 65.5 in Saturday's big AAC showdown between SMU and Cincinnati.

I know the Mustangs are statistically one of the best offenses in the country, as they come in averaging 41.6 ppg, 499 ypg and 6.7 yards/play, but a lot of that is who they have played. I don't see a defense on their schedule that they have played that is even remotely as good as what they will see in this game against Cincinnati. Keep in mind last year SMU averaged 38.6 ppg and only managed to score 13 against the Bearcats in a blowout loss at home. 

I also know Cincinnati hasn't exactly looked dominant defensively in their last few games, but this is still a team that has not given up 30 in any game this year and only twice given up more than 21. It also feels like to me that the Bearcats are one of those teams that play their best against the better teams. We saw that in their game at Notre Dame, where they held the Irish to just 13 points. 

So even if Cincinnati's offense puts up 40+ points, which I don't think they will, there's still a great chance this game will stay under the total. I think the number here should be closer to 58. Give me the UNDER 65.5! 

40* (CFB) - Wednesday Night MAC SLAUGHTER (OVER 60) 

This total opened at 65.5 and has been bet down to a mere 60. The reason for that is the forecast doesn't look great. There's expected to be 15-20 mph and a 34% chance of rain. I just think it's created some great value on the OVER. 

I just think it's been a bit overblown. There's a 66% chance it doesn't rain and with how bad these two teams are defensively, especially against the run, I don't think the wind will play as big a role as some might think. 

Northern Illinois comes in averaging 220 rushing yards/game and 4.8 yards/carry. They will be up against a Buffalo defense that gives up 197 ypg and 4.8 ypc. The Bulls are averaging 194 ypg and 4.3 ypc on the ground and will be facing a Huskies defense that is giving up 209 ypg and 5.9 ypc. As a whole both teams are giving up over 30 ppg and 450 ypg in conference play. Give me the OVER 60! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 54)  

I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER 54 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Ohio and Toledo. Both of these teams can put up points. Toledo is scoring 32.8 ppg in MAC play and Ohio is scoring 30.5 ppg. I just don't see either defense making enough stops here to keep this under 60 points. 

The UNDER has cashed quite a bit for both teams, but if you look closely, the games have just barely went under the number. You also got to look at how high scoring these MAC games have been in these early weekday matchups. This one will be no different. Give me the oVER 54! 

50* (NFL) - Rams/49ers MAX UNIT MNF Top Play (Under 50.5) 

I want nothing to do with the spread in this game. Rams look like the obvious choice at -3.5, but the obvious play in a prime time game never seems to go like you expect. I would much rather have a bet on the UNDER 50.5 for this division matchup. 

I just don't think this 49ers offense is very good. They have scored 21 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 and are up against a stingy Rams defense that has been really good against the run of laste. In LA's last 5 games they are giving up just 80.4 ypg on the ground. For San Francisco's offense to play well, they need to be able to run the ball to get to their play action in the passing game. 

On the flip side, I do think the 49ers have a solid defense. I know they have given up some points in a couple games here of late, but they allow the same 5.5 yards/play that the Rams do and you could argue that SF has played the harder schedule. I also think the loss of Robert Woods is huge, as it figures to take some time for Odell Beckham Jr to learn the Rams offense. The 49ers also have a great understanding of what McVay and that offense wants to do. 

UNDER is 21-7 in the Rams last 28 as a favorite and 11-4 in their last 15 off an ATS loss. UNDER is also 4-1 in the 49ers last 5 as an underdog. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 47)

I think we are getting a great price here on the OVER at 47 in Sunday's game between AFC East rivals Buffalo and New York. I really love this spot for the Bills' offense, as they are going to be a pissed off bunch after scoring just 6-points in last week's shocking 6-9 loss at Jacksonville. 

They couldn't have asked for a better team to get back on track against than this Jets team. New York is dead last in the NFL in both scoring defense (31.4 ppg) and total defense (408.1 ypg). In their last 3 games they have given up 54 to the Patriots, 31 to the Bengals and 45 to the Colts. All 3 of those games combining for at least 65 points. 

I feel pretty good about Buffalo scoring at least 35 in this game and wouldn't be shocked if they got into the 40s. 

On the flip side of this, I love the fact that the Jets are going to go with Mike White at quarterback instead of going back to rookie Zach Wilson. White was sensational in the Jets upset win over the Bengals and looked really good to start out that game against the Colts before he got hurt and had to leave the game. I know the Bills have the top ranked secondary, but I still think we could see the Jets easily get into the 20s and that should be more than enough to push this past the number. Give me the OVER 47! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 49.5) 

The OVERs have been cashing left and right in these early weekday MAC games. We cashed one last night with Buffalo/Miami (OH) over 57. I'll roll the dice with another OVER Wednesday, as I just think 49.5 is way too low for the game between Bowling Green and Toledo. 

It's not out of the question that Toledo could put up on 50 on their own. They almost did last week against Eastern Michigan, as they hung 49 points and racked up nearly 700 yards of offense. That offense will be up against a Bowling Green defense that is giving up 39.0 ppg in MAC play. In their last 3 games the Falcons have allowed 34 to Northern Illinois, 55 to E Mich and 44 to Buffalo. 

Little more concern with Bowling Green's offense, but they should benefit from playing at home, they have scored at least 20 in every MAC game this year and I'm also not convinced the Rockets are all that motivated with no real shot of winning the MAC West and making the title game. Give me the OVER 49.5! 

40* (CFB) - Tuesday Night MAC Total NO-BRAINER (Over 57) 

I will take my chances with the OVER 57 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Buffalo and Miami (OH). This game has shootout written all over it. 

Buffalo has seen an average of 67 points scored in their 5 conference games this season, as they are scoring 34.2 ppg and giving up 32.8 ppg. 

That soft Bulls defense is the key in this one, as the RedHawks are not the most explosive offense. With that said, Miami is averaging over 30 ppg in their last 3 and had over 500 yards of offense in last week's 33-35 loss at Ohio. 

I also think that while the RedHawks defense is only giving up 25.8 ppg and 20.6 ppg in conference play, a lot of that is who they have played. I just don't think they are going to be able to slow down this balanced Buffalo attack that comes in averaging over 200 yards/game on both the ground and thru the air. Give me the OVER 57! 

40* (CFB) - Tuesday Night MACTION MONEYMAKER (Under 53.5) 

I love the value we are getting with the UNDER 53.5 in Tuesday's Maction between Eastern Michigan and Toledo. 

I think the defenses for both teams will have the edge in this game. The Eagles high-powered offense that is averaging 32.8 ppg, is a bit fluky. They only average 373 ypg, 5.6 yards/play and have played a pretty soft schedule in terms of defenses they have played. Toledo is giving up 18.3 ppg, 326 ypg and 4.7 yards/play and that's vs teams that on average score 24.6 ppg, while giving up 375 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. 

As for the Rockets' offense, they are scoring 28.5 ppg, but are really weak up front on the offensive line and are facing a decent defense here in Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are only giving up 24.9 ppg and 393 ypg. Give me the UNDER 53.5! 

50* (NFL) - Giants/Chiefs MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 52) 

*Analysis Coming* 

50* (NFL) - NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 50.5) 

I love the UNDER 50.5 in Sunday's big NFC South matchup between the Bucs and Saints. I just have a hard time seeing this being a shootout. In fact, I think it's going to be a struggle for both teams offensively. 

Tom Brady has been great, but almost all of their high point totals have come against bad defenses. They had 48 against the Falcons, 45 against the Dolphins and 38 vs the Bears. While Chicago's defense is horrible, that was just all turnovers by the Bears offense. Only 1 of TB's 6 scoring drives were more than 50 yards with 4 of the 5 needing 40 or less yards to reach the endzone. 

I think with Antonio Brown still out and Gronk likely either sidelined or playing at less than 100%, it's going to be hard for Brady and that offense to sustain drives against this Saints defense. 

On the flip side of this, it's no secret that Sean Payton has zero desires of letting Jameis Winston throw it 40+ times per game. That's not going to change just because the Bucs are banged up in the secondary. Their whole game plan is going to be to ride Kamara and do what they can to eat up clock and limit the possessions for Brady and that Bucs offense. 

Unless we get an uncharacteristic amount of turnovers or the Saints defense somehow gets exposed, this thing is going to finish in the low 40s. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 66.5) 

I love the OVER 66.5 in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between Oklahoma and Texas Tech. I'm shocked the number here isn't in the 70's. I think some of that has to do with Oklahoma's lackluster performance this past Saturday against Kansas, but I'm not one that's going to read a lot into the Sooners not playing their best against the worst team in the conference. 

If anything I think that's a positive here, as it's going to make Oklahoma that much more motivated to get off to a strong start offensively in this game. I also think you got to look at what Oklahoma has done as a whole since Caleb Williams has replaced Spencer Rattler at quarterback. 

He was 100% the reason they were able to rally from that huge deficit in their 55-48 win over Texas and the very week he guided this team to 52 points in a win over TCU that saw 83 combined points. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all, if Oklahoma put up 50+ in this game. We have already seen Texas Tech give up that number twice, as Texas scored 70 on them and TCU had 52. 

Even if Oklahoma were to only get to 40, we would only need 27 from Tech to get the OVER and the Red Raiders are scoring 34.3 ppg and the fewest they have scored in any game all season is 23. This is also not a very good Sooners defense and the fact that KU was able to put up 23 points with over 400 yards of offense is probably the biggest takeaway you should take from that game. Give me the OVER 66.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Ten TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 50.5) 

I was shocked when I saw this total in the 50s, but I guess I'm not shocked when you look at the offensive numbers that these two teams have put up. Michigan State is scoring 34.3 ppg, 452 yards/game and 7.0 yards/play, while Michigan comes in at 37.7 ppg, 443 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. 

We can start to uncover the value when we look at just conference games. If you only focus on Big Ten opponents, Michigan State is scoring just 28.0 ppg, 398.5 ypg and 6.6 yards/play, which Michigan goes down to 30.8 ppg, 389.0 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. 

The other big thing here is the schedule. Both Michigan and Michigan State have played very favorable schedules to this point. The Wolverines are 4-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Rutgers, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. They did score 38 against the Badgers, but only had 365 yards and it was a 20-10 game going into the 4th quarter. The Spartans are 4-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Northwestern, Nebraska, Rutgers and Indiana and they only managed to score 23 vs the Cornhuskers and 20 last time out vs the Hoosiers. 

These are also two offensive teams that want to run the football and are going up against two defenses that have been really good at stopping the run. Michigan is only giving up 3.6 yards/carry and Michigan State is allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. 

I just think in a game of this magnitude, both teams are going to be a little more conservative out of the gate and all the running for 3-4 yards is going to eat up the clock and keep this thing in the low 40s. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

40* (NFL) - Packers/Cardinals TNF NO-BRAINER (Over 49.5) 

I like the OVER 49.5 in Thursday's big NFC showdown between the Packers and Cardinals. This game lost a lot of its luster when the news broke that Green Bay was going to be without top wideout Davante Adams and one of their other top receivers in Allen Lazard. 

It definitely makes life a little harder on Green Bay's offense to not have Adams, but I don't think it's going to result in the Packers not being able to move the ball. Last I checked they still have Aaron Rodgers and I got a pretty good feeling he's going to find a way to move the chains. 

You also got to factor in that Green Bay should be able to establish the run in this game. The Cardinals run defense has not been very good this year. They are giving up 5.0 yards/carry. Even without Adams and Lazard, you can bet the Cardinals are going to be respecting the pass, which I think is going to allow GB to get the run game establish and allow Rodgers to make plays in play action. 

On the flip side this, I got zero faith that this Packers defense can slow down this Arizona offense. Last week's 24-10 win over Washington might have been the flukiest win of the season for a team. The Packers somehow managed to hold the Football team to 10 points with Washington racking up 430 total yards and getting the ball inside the Packers 30-yard line 5 times and not punting once the entire game. Give me the OVER 49.5! 

40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 57)

We didn't get their with the Chiefs OVER last week, as KC's defense played it's best game of the year. The Chiefs held Washington scoreless in the 2nd half and to just 13 points for the game. While I would expect that KC defense to not be as bad as it was to start the year, let's not forget who they were playing. Washington is a complete mess right now. 

I just don't see a scenario in this game where the Chiefs are able to contain Derek Henry for the Titans. KC has one of the worst run defenses in the league, giving up 133 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry. Tennessee is going to be in 2nd and short all game long. 

On the flip side of this, the Chiefs offense should be in for a field day as well. While Patrick Mahomes and that KC offense hasn't quite looked as good as what we expected to see, they are still an elite offensive team. They are scoring 30.8 ppg, putting up 434 ypg and averaging 6.6 yards/play. 

Mahomes and that Chiefs offense will be up against a bad Titans defense. Tennessee is giving up 276 passing yards/game and 7.7 passing yards per attempt. That's with playing half of their games against the Jags, Jets and Colts. They gave up 280 to Kyler Murray, 320 to Russell Wilson and 335 to Josh Allen. Mahomes has thrown for 740 yards and 6 TDs in his last 2 starts vs the Titans. Play the OVER 57! 

40* (CFB) - Late Night Total SHARP PLAY (Over 63) 

I like the OVER 63 in Saturday's ACC matchup between Georgia Tech and Virginia. I just don't see the Yellow Jackets going on the road with that awful secondary and having any shot of slowing down Virginia's prolific passing attack. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 65% of their pass attempts and are averaging 8.2 yards/attempt. 

Virginia is 3rd in the country in pass attempts per game behind junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong. He's already thrown for 2,824 yards and 19 TDs and is completing 64% of his attempts. Cavaliers are averaging 8.4 passing yards/attempt. 

The only chance the Yellow Jackets have of making a game of this, is to go score for score with Virginia. I don't know if they can, but I do think they can get into the 20s no problem. I know the Cavaliers just shutout Duke last week, but this is not a very good Virginia defense. Give me the OVER 63! 

40* (NFL) Broncos/Browns TNF NO-BRAINER (Under 41) 

This is a game that I planned on just staying away from with all the big injuries to Cleveland, as I just didn't think there was enough value with Denver at less than a field goal (do I like the Broncos on a 6-pt teaser). That was until I saw the expected weather conditions for this game. It's expected to be very windy in Cleveland on Thursday. They are calling for consistent winds north of 20 mph with gusts pushing 30 mph. 

You just can't throw the ball like you normally would when it's this windy and it can turn what would be easy field goals into 50/50 propositions. 

It was already going to be a tall task for the Browns offense in this game. With Baker Mayfield sidelined, they are starting Case Keenum at quarterback. Both of their top two backs, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are out. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are both questionable, as are both starting offensive tackles. 

The good news is the Browns should be fine defensively in this one. I know they have been torched the last two weeks by the Chargers and Cardinals, but those are two of the top offensive teams in the NFL. Denver struggles to just put 20 points on the scoreboard. They are averaging 21.0 ppg and that's with 3 games against the Giants, Jags and Jets. They are also a poor running team, which will make it that much harder on them with the poor throwing conditions. Give me the UNDER 41. 

40* (CFB) - Thursday Night Total ANNIHILATOR (OVER 70.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 70.5 in Thursday's American Athletic matchup between Tulane and SMU. I just don't think it's asking a lot for these two teams to eclipse this number. The Mustangs rank 10th in the country in scoring at 40.7 ppg. Tulane isn't quite that potent, but are 36th at 32.8 ppg. 

I wouldn't be shocked at all if SMU put up 50 points in this game. When faced up against a good offense, Tulane's defense hasn't been able to keep the opposing team out of the end zone. They gave up 40 to Oklahoma in Week 1 and we have seen how much better that OU offense is now compared to back then. They allowed 61 to Ole Miss and that's with the Rebels scoring their last point at the 7:35 mark in the 3rd quarter. They gave up 52 to East Carolina and 40 in their last game against Houston. 

The big key here is I don't think we need 50 out of SMU to cash the OVER in this game. I know SMU's defensive numbers look pretty good. The Mustangs are only giving up 22.2 ppg and 391 ypg. However, a lot of that is who they have played. The only two games I think they have played an offense with a pulse is matchups vs TCU and La Tech. They gave up 34 to the Horned Frogs and 37 to the Bulldogs. I got Tulane in the 30s in this one. Give me the OVER 70.5! 

40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5) 

I don't care what the number is, I want to be on the OVER in Chiefs' games as much as possible. At least until that defense shows us any sort of inkling that they can stop the opposing team from moving the ball up and down the field. 

There's just not much to like with what you have seen from that KC defense. They don't have the size up front to keep teams from running the ball, they don't tackle great and they get zero pass rush. 

I don't care if you think Washington's offense is good or not. They are going to be able to move the ball and put up points. Just look at what the Eagles did against this KC defense a couple weeks ago. The Chiefs weren't able to force a single punt out of Philly and that same Eagles offense managed just 273 yards last week against the Panthers (punted 5 times and had a safety in just the 1st half). 

On the flip side of this, I still think Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is one of the best in the league. They have just had to press so much on offense against good teams because of how bad the defense has been, they haven't quite performed up to potential. Washington isn't good enough on defense to slow this offense down. They have given up 43 to the Bills, 30 to the Falcons and 33 to the Saints in their last 3 games. KC is going to score 30 and maybe even into the 40s. I think Washington also has a good shot here to put up close to 30 points. Give me the OVER 55.5! 

40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total DESTROYER (OVER 51.5) 

I see some value with the OVER 51.5 in Sunday's big AFC showdown between the Ravens and Chargers. These two teams have shown that they can light up the scoreboard. The Chargers have scored at least 28 points in each of their last 3 games and the Ravens just put up 31 last week against the Colts. 

The even bigger thing for me is how these two teams matchup. While Lamar Jackson has been throwing it all over his last two opponents (758 yards, including 442 last week against the Colts), Baltimore figures to be much more balanced in this game. The Chargers are the worst team in the league against the run. Not only are they giving up a league worst 157.6 ypg (12.4 ypg more than the next closest team), they are giving up a league worst 5.6 yards/carry. 

As for the Ravens offense, they have looked a little better here of late, giving up just 16.3 ppg over their last 3, it's come against the Lions, Broncos and Colts. It's also worth noting they were lucky to only give up 25 to Indy. The Colts had over 500 yards of offense with 390 thru the air. 

I just don't see them being able to contain Justin Herbert and this explosive Chargers offense. I think there's a really good chance that we could see both teams go for 30+ points and all we need is for something like 28-24 to cash a winning ticket. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Over 82) 

You don't see a lot of college football totals in the 80's and I think the high number might scare some people away, even though every knows there's going to be points galore scored in this game. I just think that given how fast these two teams play, how explosive they are offensively and the lack of defensive talent these two possess, there's a very high probability that these two eclipse this big number. 

I think most know by now that Ole Miss is an offensive juggernaut under Lane Kiffin. I don't know if everyone is aware of just how good Tennessee has been on offense and how fast first year head coach Josh Heupel has this team playing. 

Just on the number of possessions alone that both offenses figure to have, it's really not asking a lot for these two teams to get well into the 80s. I mean we just saw Ole Miss/Arkansas combine for 103 points last week. 

Tennessee has played 4 Power 5 opponents and 3 of the 4 have seen at least 65 and those 3 were against the likes of Pitt, Missouri and South Carolina. They combined for 86 on the road vs Missouri. 

I definitely don't see the Vols defense being able to slowdown Corral and the Rebels. On the flip side, I don't trust the Ole Miss defense at all, especially in this spot. How much can they have left in the tank defensively after back-to-back games against Alabama and Arkansas. Give me the OVER 82! 

50* (NFL) - Bucs/Eagles MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 52) 

I love the OVER 52 in tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup between the Bucs and Eagles. I already think there's an edge to the OVER in these Thursday games, but this matchup we have in Week 6 has shootout written all over it. 

I'm extremely confident that Tom Brady and the Bucs are going to score and score a lot. Not only do they have the best to ever do it at quarterback, but they got one of the best set of skill players in the league. I also think we have seen when Tampa Bay gets matched up with a poor defense they aren't afraid to run it up. They put up 48 on the Falcons and 45 last week against the Dolphins. 

Philly's defense isn't horrible, but their strength is their defensive line and it's just not going to be a big factor in this game. Not only do the Bucs have a pretty good offensive line, few are better than Brady at getting it to the open guy before the pressure gets home. 

Eaglys have faced two offenses that are similar in the Cowboys and Chiefs. Both Dallas and Kansas City did whatever they wanted. Cowboys put up 41 and the Chiefs scored 42. Would not shock me at all if TB had 40+ in this game. 

The other big key here is the Bucs aren't an elite defense by any means. I know they only gave up 17 in each of their last two games, but that was against two bad offenses. One led by a rookie in Mac Jones and the other a subpar veteran in Jacoby Brissett. Jalen Hurts should be able to make some plays and I feel pretty good about the Eagles scoring at least 24 in this one. Give me the OVER 52! 

40* (CFB) - Thursday CFB Night Total ANNIHILATOR (UNDER 51) 

The UNDER 51 in the South Alabama/Georgia Southern is is the only thing I'm betting in college tonight. These are two teams that love to run the football. The Jaguars run it on average 40 times per game (57.1%) and the Eagles rush it 47 times per game (67%). 

Even when the run isn't really working, these two teams are going to keep trying to establish it. Both also will look to milk the ball with the run if they get any kind of lead. I don't think either team is going to have a ton of success on the ground. Georgia Southern may put up a decent number, but they are going to have to earn it by running it 40-50 times. 

Just look at last year's game between these two. Georgia Southern won the matchup by a final score of just 24-17. Neither offense could do much in that game and 14 of the 41 points that were scored came in the 4th quarter (strongly considering doubling down with U24 in the first half). 

The line being a pick'em is also worth a note. UNDER has cashed in 11 of South Alabama's last 13 when the line is 3 or less, either way. UNDER is also 12-4 in their last 16 games played and 8-1 in their last 9 in games played Weeks 5-9. Give me the UNDER 51! 

50* (CFB) - App St/Lafayette MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 57) 

I like the UNDER 57 in Tuesday's Sun Belt action between Appalachian State and Louisiana Lafayette. This is a pretty big matchup in the Sun Belt. Most had these two teams picked to win their respective divisions and meet up in the conference title game. Both are off to a strong 4-1 start and are undefeated in conference play. More times than not, big games are lower-scoring than expected. 

I also like how these two teams matchup. Both teams offensively want to establish the run game. Ragin' Cajuns run in 54% of the time and the Mountaineers rush it 57% of the time. Lafayette also likes to play at a slower pace (T-70th in plays/game). 

While these aren't elite run defenses, I think both are a little better vs the run than what people think. App State's numbers are solid. They only give up 118 ypg and 3.6 ypc. However, that's come against teams who average 151 ypg and 4.2 ypc. Lafayette's numbers look a lot worse. They are giving up 171 ypg and 4.1 ypc. However, that's come against teams averaging 190 ypg and 4.8 ypc. Ragin' Cajuns should also get a boost defensively playing at home. 

UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 meetings between these two teams. Last year they combined for just 45 in a 24-21 Lafayette win. Neither team sniffed 300 yards of offense. Cajuns ran it 45 times to 24 pass attempts. Mountaineers ran it 49 times to 21 pass attempts. Just don't see enough possessions to surpass this number. Give me the UNDER 57! 

50* (NFL) - Colts/Ravens MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 46.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 46.5 between the Ravens and Colts on Monday Night Football. Both offense figure to have a hard time putting up points on the board. Indy's offense is stuck in neutral with Carson Wentz. The Colts are averaging just 20.8 ppg, 326 ypg and 5.2 yard/play. Numbers that really look bad when you consider the 4 opponents they have played are giving up on average 26.3 ppg, 410 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. 

Don't expect this Colts offense to figure it out on the road against a strong Ravens defense. Last two times out, Baltimore has held the Lions to 17 and the Broncos to 7. 

On the flip side of this, the Colts defense is well suited to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. The biggest thing to slowing down Baltimore is keeping Jackson from running wild. Colts are built to do that. Indy comes in giving up just 331 ypg. 

These two teams played last year and combined for just 34 points with a total of 47.5. UNDER has cashed in 9 of Wentz's last 14 starts. UNDER is also 19-5 in the Ravens last 14 at home off a win by 14 or more and 29-15 in Indy's last 44 off a win as a road dog. Give me the UNDER 46.5! 

40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 44) 

I'm going the OVER 44 in Sunday's game between the Chicago Bears and Las Vegas Raiders. I see this game getting into the 50s without much problem. I don't know if it's the lack of faith in this Bears offense or how bad the Raiders' offense looked on MNF against the Chargers, but this total is too low. 

One thing that I think people are really concerned with when it comes to Chicago's offense is the loss of running back David Montgomery. He's really been the focal point of their offense to this point. I just don't think there's a huge drop off with backup Damien Williams. He had 55 yards and a score on just 8 attempts last week against the Lions. 

The other big thing is who will be the QB for Chicago. It could be Justin Fields or it might be Andy Dalton. It doesn't really matter to me. I think Fields is growing more and more comfortable with each start and Dalton isn't as bad as people think. We have also seen the offense look instantly better once head coach Matt Nagy gave up play calling duties. 

Either way, I think this is a plus matchup for the Bears offense against this Raiders defense. Las Vegas gave up 17 to a hopeless Steelers offense and 28 to the Dolphins with backup Jacoby Brissett at QB. Chicago is going to have their chances to put points on the board. 

Let's also not forget that this is a bit of a tough spot for the Raiders playing on short rest after their game on MNF with the Chargers. I think the lack of rest hurts the defense more than anything. 

On the flip side of this, I don't think the Bears defense is anything close to as good as what people think. Chicago has got old and slow on the defensive side of the ball. They still got some decent pass rushers, but their secondary is awful and they may be without one of their top interior linemen in Akiem Hicks. A guy that would have a plus matchup here against the weak interior line of the Raiders. 

Prior to laying an egg against the Chargers, Derek Carr was lighting up secondaries. Las Vegas had scored 33 against the Ravens, 26 against the Steelers and 31 vs the Dolphins. I think Carr is going to have a huge bounceback game here and guide the Raiders to 30+ points. I probably lay it with Las Vegas if I had to play the side, but I don't see near the value in the number as I do with the total. Give me the OVER 44! 

50* (NFL) - Raiders/Chargers MNF Vegas Insider TOP PLAY (Over 51.5) 

I think the game itself is a coin flip, and there's just no value with the spread at Chargers -3. Good news is I do think we are getting a pretty good price here on the total. I see both offenses being able to move the ball at will in this one and just don't think 51.5 is near enough. 

These are two of the Top 3 passing offenses in the NFL. Derek Carr and the Raiders lead the league at 379.5 ypg. The next best is Brady and the Bucs at 327.5 ypg. The Chargers are 3rd at 307.3 ypg. 

I know we are just 3 games into the season, but there's no reason to doubt the big offensive numbers by Carr and the Raiders. It's not like they have paid cupcakes. They have played one of the best defenses in the league in the Steelers (on the road) and two above average units in the Ravens and Dolphins.

Carr threw for 382 yards on 28 of 37 passing against Pittsburgh. In the Steelers 3 other games they have held Josh Allen to 270 yards, Joe Burrow to 172 and Aaron Rodgers to 248. 

While it's a little different story for Herbert and the Chargers, who have faced 3 of the worst defenses in the Football Team, Cowboys and Chiefs, they pass the eye test for me. Herbert is a top tier QB in this league. 

I also think they are facing another bad defense in the Raiders. Las Vegas is giving up just 24.0 ppg, but it's come against teams who on the season only average 19.5 ppg. I think them giving up 28 points at home to the Dolphins with a backup QB says a lot. They also gave up 330 yards to that awful Steelers offense. Herbert is by far the best QB they have faced in terms of passing and it's not really close. 

I think you can't ignore last year's games between these two teams. Both games finished with a combined score of 57 points. OVER is 6-2 in the Raiders last 8 on the road and 8-1 in their last 9 as a dog. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 57.5) 

I love the OVER 57.5 in Saturday's ACC cross division matchup between Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech. I'm shocked this number isn't in the 60s. Pitt just isn't a good offensive team, they are one of the best offensive teams in the country. 

The Panthers come into this game averaging 52.5 ppg, 548 ypg and 7.1 yards/play. I know there's some inflation in the numbers with the 51 they put up on UMass and 77 they scored last week against New Hampshire, but we saw them score 41 at Tennessee and 41 against Western Michigan. 

Pitt has one of the best quarterbacks in the country that people don't talk about in senior Kenny Pickett. He's completed 74.2% of his attempts for 1,342 yards with an outstanding 15 to 1 TD-INT ratio. He's had a field day throwing to freshman wide out Jordan Addison, who has 23 catches for 407 yards and 8 TDs in 4 games. 

Georgia Tech's defense looked great in their near upset at Clemson and were able to hold Sam Howell and the Tar Heels to just 22 last week. However, I'm still not buying into this Yellow Jackets defense. I think UNC beat themselves more than Georgia Tech's defense played great. 

Let's also not ignore the fact that the Yellow Jackets offense was able to put up 45 points on the Tar Heels. In the two games where Pitt has played a halfway decent offense, they gave up 34 to Tennessee and 44 to Western Michigan. 

I think both offenses have a really good shot here to put up 30 points and I wouldn't be shocked if one or both hit 40. Give me the OVER 57.5! 

40* (NFL) Jags/Bengals TNF Situational BEST BET (Over 46) 

I've made quite a bit of money with these Thursday Night Football over plays. These numbers are posted more on what the total should be if both teams were playing on Sunday with a full 6 days of rest between games. Teams just don't play as well defensively when there's only 3 days to not only prepare but to recover physically. Something I believe is much harder for a defensive player than an offensive player. 

It's not something you can back blindly. I was all over it in Week 2 when that total for Washington/New York jumped from 43 down to 40.5. I didn't take it last week because of the QB situation for the Texans (100% would have been on it if Tyrod Taylor had played). 

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 46, especially with this spread where I don't want to take the Jags and at the same time don't feel confident laying 7.5 with the Bengals. 

We know Cincinnati likes to throw the football with their young stud QB in Joe Burrow. He's completed 71% of his attempts for 640 yards and 7 TDs in his first 3 games. He should have a field day here against a Jags secondary that is giving up 302 ypg, 9.0 yards/attempt and 74.3% completion rate. Keep in mind that's against Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold. 

The other big positive here for Burrow is this Jags pass rush. It's no secret the Bengals offensive line is weak. Jacksonville has just 4 sacks in 3 games, only the Bucs have fewer with 3. 

On the flip side of this, I think we see Trevor Lawrence and the Jags offense contribue a decent amount in this game. Not only is a plus spot facing a Bengals defense on just 3 days rest, but you have to wonder how long Cincinnati will be locked in if this gets out of control. They just played a huge division game at Pittsburgh and got Aaron Rodgers and company on deck in Week 5. 

Let's also not forget this Bengals defense gave up 20 points to the Bears and Fields played a decent amount in that game. Give me the OVER 46! 

50* (NFL) Eagles/Cowboys MNF Vegas INSIDER (Over 51.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 51.5 in Monday Night Football. Big NFC East matchup with the Cowboys hosting the Eagles. The OVER has been cashing left and right in these prime time games, outside of the Panthers/Texans game this past Thursday (HOU had backup rookie QB and CAR lost McCaffrey early). 

I just don't think the number here is enough for this Cowboys team. Dallas without question has one of the most explosive offenses in the league and I just don't think there's a defense out there that can keep them in check. I know they only had 20 points in their win at the Chargers in Week 2, but that was more of them just playing keep away from Herbert and that Chargers offense. 

I don't think they are going to play conservative here at home against the Eagles. Philly's defense has looked pretty good in their two games, but they have faced Matt Ryan and the Falcons and Jimmy G and the 49ers. The strength of this defense has been their d-line.

Not only does Dallas have better weapons in the passing game, they got an o-line that can more than hold their own. If Dak gets time, he will expose this Eagles secondary. 

On the flip side, I still don't have much faith in this Cowboys defense. Not only are they missing one of their best players in Demarcus Lawrence, they got all kinds of guys out for this game, especially on the d-line. Their depth is really going to be tested in this game. 

I look for Jalen Hurts to step up and go toe-to-toe with Prescott. I think they number in this game should be pushing 55. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

50* (NFL) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 49.5) 

I was shocked to see this total less than 50. The Lions are awful defensively and we have seen time after time this Ravens offense light it up with Lamar Jackson against bad teams. I know Jackson is questionable with an illness, but everything I've read is that he will be on the field Sunday. 

I'm confident we are going to get 30+ from the Ravens in this one and a good chance they hit the 40-point mark. That means all we need is 20-25 from the Lions to cash this ticket. I know Detroit only had 17 in their MNF loss to Green Bay, but they just couldn't get anything going in the 2nd half. 

The Ravens are a good defensive team, but they are a team that likes to blitz a lot, so I feel pretty good about Goff and that Lions offense having a few good drives in this game. You also have to factor in the perfect conditions playing in a dome. Give me the OVER 49.5! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 65.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 65.5 between Coastal Carolina and UMass, as I think this game easily gets into the 70's. You might be asking how that happens when you got a team like UMass that is averaging just 21.0 ppg. It's more about how bad the Minutemen are on the defensive side of the ball.

 UMass gave up 51 in their opener at Pitt, allowed 45 at home to BC and 42 at home to E Michigan. They are giving up 220 yards/game and 5.2 yards/carry vs the run. They are also giving up 306 ypg and a 74% completion rate vs the pass. 

Coastal Carolina averages 43.0 ppg, 230 yards/game and 6 yards/carry, while throwing for 275 yards/game and completing 78% of their pass attempts. The Chanticleers would have to play their worst possible game to not hit 40 points. I think they get to at least 50. 

UMass might not do a lot to help us early, but they will have plenty of opportunities to score in the 2nd half when Coastal Carolina calls off the dogs. I see this somewhere along the lines of 49 to 24. Give me the OVER 65.5! 

50* (CFB) Marshall/App State MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 60.5) 

I saw this total start to climb early in the week and quickly grabbed the UNDER 60.5 as soon as I saw the first book go back the other way (why it's so important to be a long-term client, so you get the play as soon as it's published and don't miss out on better numbers). 

I just don't see these two teams going up and down the field the way you need to eclipse a number like this. It's really a prime example of how much more people focus on a team's offensive numbers than their defense. 

Marshall is averaging 43.7 ppg and 604 ypg. Impressive. However, they have played Navy, NC Central and East Carolina. They should have great numbers. It's going to be a whole lot tougher against a very good Appalachian State defense. The Mountaineers are giving up just 18.0 ppg and 349 ypg. That's with them playing a road game at Miami, FL. 

It's similar on the other side. Appalachian State is averaging 33.3 ppg and 446 ypg, but are actually underperforming if you take into account the teams they have faced are giving up on average 36.4 ppg and 480 ypg. The Mountaineers are also a team that wants to run the ball, which is great for eating up the clock. Marshall's defense has also been pretty good, giving up just 19.7 ppg and 379 ypg. 

I also think you got to put some decent stock into last year's game between these two teams, which ended in a 17-7 Marshall win. The Herd ran it 45 times to just 25 passes and App State had 33 carries. Books were way off on that one too, as the total was 59.5. Give me the UNDER 60.5! 

50* (NFL) - Lions/Packers MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 48.5) 

I'm going with the OVER 48.5 on Monday Night Football. I know some of the Lions' scoring against the 49ers came in the final minutes of regulation, but I was impressed with the unit. Jared Goff was way better than I anticipated. He had 338 yards and 3 scores. Detroit also ran for 116 yards and 4.8 yards/carry. 

They now face a Packers defense that had no answer for Jameis Winston and the Saints offense. New Orleans played keep away from Rogers and put up an impressive 5.4 yards/play. That same Saints offense could only put up 128 total yards and 3.0 yards/play this past Sunday against the Panthers. 

This too me all comes down to the Packers offense. I got some concerns, but I also think it's pretty safe to say that Rodgers and company will be a lot better than what they showed in Week 1. 

Detroit doesn't figure to be very good on that side of the ball. They let SF do whatever they wanted and that same 49ers offense really struggled on Sunday against the Eagles. 

Last year these two teams combined for 63 in the game at GB and 55 in the matchup in Detroit. Give me the OVER 48.5! 

40* (NFL) Situational Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (OVER 47.5)

I think both of these offenses are coming off very unfavorable matchups. I think you could make a legit case that the Steelers and Patriots are the two best defensive teams in the AFC this year.

Since the Bills drafted Josh Allen back in the 2018 offseason, the OVER in this division series is 5-1 with 5 straight covers. Last year the total set in both of their games was 42 and they combined for 59 and 84 points in the two games they played. They have combined for at least 52 in each of the last 5. 

One thing to note about that Bills defense and the good numbers it put up last week against the Steelers, they couldn’t get off the field in the 2nd half.  After holding Pittsburgh scoreless and allowing just 23 total yards in the 1st half, the Steelers scored on all 4 of their 2nd half possessions and put up 229 yards. 

As for Miami, they were extremely lucky to only give up 17 points. Not only did they give up nearly 400 yards to a rookie QB on the road, they only forced two punts the entire game and one of those they were lucky didn’t end in a field goal. Pats had 1st and 10 on the 30 and ended up 4th and 17 on the 37. 

I also think weather could play into a high-scoring game. It’s suppose to be hot and humid in Miami this Sunday, so I would expect the defenses to wear down as the game goes on. Give me the OVER 47.5!

40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 47) 

I think we are getting some decent value with the OVER in this game. I just think people have a hard time seeing a high-scoring game with the Steelers after how bad the offense looked and how great the defense was in that Week 1 win over the Bills. 

Yes, the Pittsburgh offense was bad in the 1st half of that game against Buffalo, but they really seemed to figure it out in the 2nd half. They had 229 of their 252 total yards in the final two quarters. 

I think we are going to see that offense start strong and finish strong against a bad Raiders defense. Not to mention the emotional letdown defensively coming off that crazy MNF game vs the Ravens. 

Pittsburgh is also in a bit of a letdown off that massive game against the Bills. Their defense is maybe the best in the league, but this Raiders offense can put up points on just about any defense. If they can just sniff 20 points, this thing is going to easily get to 50. 

OVER is 9-1 in the Raiders last 10 games as a dog and a perfect 7-0 when they are a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Average combined score in the 7-0 streak is 64.0 ppg! Give me the OVER 47! 

50* (CFB) - Sharp Money TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 56.5) 

I think the fact that BC lost starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec to injury has created some big time value on the OVER in Saturday's game against Temple. I just don't think the drop off to backup Dennis Grosel is as big as people might think. Grosel came in relief of Jurkovec in last week's 45-28 win over UMass and completed 11 of 14 for 199 yards. 

There's also last year's season finale at Virginia, where Grosel got the start for an inured Jurkovec. He was 32 of 46 (69.6%) for 520 yards and 4 scores. I don't see the Owls having any kind of answer for this BC passing attack. 

Don't be fooled by Temple's defense in their first two games. While they held Rutgers to just 365 total yards, the Scarlet Knights put up 61 on the Owls. Even an awful Akron team that didn't score a point until the 4th quarter against Auburn was able to put up 24 points. Let's also not forget that same Rutgers offense that shredded Temple had just 17 points and 195 total yards in their game against Syracuse last week. 

It's not out of the question here that BC could put up a 50 spot. I certainly think they can get to at least 40. That means we just need a little bit out of this Temple offense to cash a winner. 

I think they can. Boston College's defense isn't anything special. If UMass can score 28 against them, so can Temple. My numbers have this game at 64.5. That's a full 8 points of value we are getting. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 40.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 40.5 on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Most are going to look at this matchup between NFC East rivals Washington and New York and think it will be low scoring.

Neither team was able to reach 20 points in Week 1, as the Football Team lost 16-20 at home, while the Giants scored just 13 in their 14-point loss at home to the Broncos. 

Not only that, Washington lost starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury that will have him sidelined 6-8 weeks. 

What will get overlook, as it does every year, is the difficulty that comes with playing on just 3 days rest. It's an absolutely brutal turnaround for NFL teams to play on Sunday and then have to play on Thursday. It's just not enough time for these guys to recover. 

I believe that really has a negative impact on the defensive side of the ball. So much of what makes a great defense is energy and effort. Both teams figure to be lacking that. 

I also don't think these offenses are as bad as people think. While the Giants only scored 13 points, they were able to move the football against a really good Denver defense. New York had 314 yards and 19 first downs. They had 4 drives inside Denver territory that didn't result in any points. 

Washington's defense held the Chargers to 20 points. However, I think their defense is a bit overrated. They got a really good player in Chase Young, but as a whole their more middle of the pack in my eyes. LA did have 424 yards and 27 first downs in that game. 

As for the Washington offense and the Fitzpatrick injury, I don't think there's a huge drop off from Fitzpatrick to backup Taylor Heinicke. A number of guys on the Football Team voiced their vote for Heinicke to be the starting QB this year. 

All we basically need is for 5 TDs to be scored in this game. That should get us to 35. You got to think there's at least 2 field goals, which would put us to 41. Give me the OVER 40.5! 

50* (NFL) - Ravens/Raiders MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 50.5) 

I think the best bet on Monday Night Football is the UNDER 50.5. I just don't see this game getting into the 50s. 

Baltimore might have a MVP quarterback in Lamar Jackson, but this is a run-first team. They were 1st in rushing in 2020 (191.9 ypg) and dead last in passing (171.2 ypg). I know Lamar might throw more out of necessity with all the injuries the Ravens have had at RB, but that's not playing to his strength. 

I also think that Baltimore offense is going up against an improved Raiders defense that has had several big additions at all 3 levels of the defense. They also are getting a new look under new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Not to mention this should be an electric atmosphere in Las Vegas' new stadium with fans for the first time in a prime time game. That will fuel that defense. 

Baltimore did lose a top level corner in Marcus Peters, but they got some solid depth in the secondary and really bring back the entire core from last year's unit that ranked 6th against the pass and 8th against the run. 

The Raiders got some nice weapons at the skill positions and an okay QB in Carr, but I got big time concerns with an offensive line that will have 4 new starters after they traded away 3 of their best linemen in center Rodney Hudson, right tackle Trent Brown and right guard Gabe Jackson. I think they are in trouble against that front 7 of Baltimore. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 44) 

I really feel like the books aren't close with the total here. It's the 3rd lowest total on Sunday right now, ahead of only the Dolphins/Pats (43.5) and Broncos/Giants (41.5). Without a doubt the biggest factor here is the Jets defense. 

Last year New York gave up 28.6 ppg. They were 28th against the pass, T-20th in sacks, T-23 in interceptions and 24th in total defense. Two of the Jets biggest pickups to help them improve with defensive end Carl Lawson and middle linebacker Jarrad Davis. Lawson has been lost for the year and Davis is on IR. 

I just think there's little doubt this Jets defense will be ranking near the bottom of the league in all those categories again in 2021. 

I do think one thing that's holding this total back, is people aren't quite ready to trust Sam Darnold in Carolina. Was Darnold very good with the Jets? No. However, not many young QBs would be in that situation. He had no talent around him and horrible coaching. 

He's now got one of the rising stars at head coach in Matt Rhule and even more importantly a really good offensive coordinator in Joe Brady. I think Brady's scheme is legit and it didn't look like the old Darnold in training camp. I mean how big is the gap between Christian McCaffrey and the best skill player Darnold played with at New York? I really think this offense is going to be pushing 30 ppg this year. 

Last thing for me here is I also think people are sleeping on this Jets offense. New York hired a defensive minded guy in 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to be their new head coach. What people overlook is he brought along 49ers offensive assistant Mike LaFleur to run the ultra-successful offense that was installed in SF by Kyle Shanahan. 

Not only are the Jets going to be better coached on offense, I think they got something in rookie BYU quarterback Zach Wilson. The spotlight doesn't seem to big for this kid. He's really been impressive to this point. He might not be an upgrade in terms of talent over Darnold, at least not now, but the quarterback play in NY is going to be light years better than it was last year. 

Last year their top rusher was Frank Gore and leading wide out was Jamison Crowder. I think Tevin Coleman is an upgrade over Gore and Corey Davis has looked like a different guy since coming over from Tennessee. I think they are going to score a lot more (dead last in scoring last year at 15.2 ppg). Give me the OVER 44! 

40* (NCAAF) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5)

I was really surprised this total was as low as it was. I was glued to that FSU/Notre Dame game last Sunday. I cashed my ticket on FSU and the points, but the one thing that really stuck with me, was the talent Notre Dame has at the skill position. I knew Michael Mayer was going to be a weapon, but Kevin Austin and Kyren Williams are big time playmakers.  

They made former Wisconsin QB Jack Coan look like a serious Heisman threat, as he completed 26 of 35 for 366 yards and had 4 TD passes. I wonder if people have a hard time not referring back to the Coan they saw at Wisconsin. All I know, I liked what I saw out of him in Week 1. 

I think when you have doubt about a team's QB, you aren't as quick to back them. I think it possibly has Notre Dame a bit undervalued right now. I would definitely lean laying the points with them. However, I think the much safer bet is on the OVER 55.5. 

If the Irish are as dynamic as what I'm expecting, there's a chance they could put up 50. Keep in mind, they had 38 points and a 18-point lead going into the 4th quarter last week. They were outscored 18-0 in the 4th and needed OT. They are not taking their foot off the gas. 

I just don't know that Toledo has the kind of talent you need to slow down an offense like this. The MAC is also now the bottom of the barrel in conference hierarchy, having been passed by both the Sun Belt and C-USA. Last 3 times the Rockets have faced a Power 5 team they have given up 38, 49 and 52 points respectively. 

As for Toledo's offense, I think they are to help us out and put up some points to really push this past the mark. As much as I was impressed with the talent on ND's offense, I'm really concerned about their defense. They gave up 38 points and 442 yards to a FSU team coming off a 3-win season. Who knows what those numbers would look like if Mike Norvell would have just started McKenzie Milton at QB. 

Toledo has 10 starters back from an offense that put up 35.0 ppg and 494 ypg last year. Only once in the last 7 years have they not averaged 35 or more. I mention they give up a lot vs Power 5 teams, but they scored 24, 24 and 30 in those games. If they give us 24, this should be over by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 55.5! 

50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 51)

I just don't love the side in this game. I don't trust Dallas, but don't want to lay it with Tampa Bay either. The better bet in this game is on the total and for these two go OVER the number of 51. 

It's really a no-brainer if you ask me. You got two of the most talented offensive teams in the NFL going head-to-head. 

Tom Brady and the Bucs offense got off to a slow start in 2020, but it didn't last long. After scoring a mere 3-points against the Saints in early November, Tampa Bay put up at least 24 points in each of their last 11 games, scoring 30+ in each of their 4 playoff games. 

The Bucs have their entire offense back. They finished last year 7th in total offense and 3rd in scoring. They should be even better the second go around together. 

It also doesn't hurt they will be facing one of the least talented defenses in the league in the Cowboys. Nothing Dallas did in the offseason screams they are going to be improved. 

It's going to be up to Dak Prescott and the offense to outscore teams to win. Something they are more than capable of doing. Dallas has a plethora of talent at wide receiver. While they have mentioned wanting to run more to help the defense, their strength is throwing the football. 

They also aren't going to have a choice against this Bucs defense. TB also brings everyone back on defense and last year they led the league in run defense, giving up 80.6 ypg. 

Even if the Cowboy's offense gets off to a slow start, they are built to play from behind and can score in the blink of an eye. I see a final score of something along the lines of TB 38 - DAL 28. That's more than two TDs than the number we are playing. Give me the OVER 51! 

50* (CFB) - Non Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK (UNDER 60) 

I really like the UNDER 60 in Saturday's non-conference matchup between USC and San Jose State. The total here is suggesting a shootout, but I'm not convinced that will be the case. 

I know USC has a really good quarterback in Kedon Slovis, but he's got a lot of new faces it receiver. He gets back his top guy in Drake London, but his second and third favorite targets are gone and two guys that were expected to start are not expected to be available for this game. 

You also have to look at what they will be going up against. San Jose State went 7-1 and won the MWC title behind the play of their defense. The Spartans only gave up 19.9 ppg and 346 ypg last year and have 10 of their 11 starters back.

If they can just keep USC from going off for 40+, it's going to be hard for this to get to 60. That's because the Trojans are absolutely loaded on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker. 

For San Jose State to score, they are going to have to have a ton of big plays in the passing game. I just don't see it. They get back starting QB Nick Starkel, but he's got to make due without his top two targets from last year in Bailey Gaither and Tre Walker. Those two had 86 catches for 1,352 yards and 8 scores. Give me the UNDER 60! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 58.5) 

I like the UNDER 58.5 in Saturday's matchup between Texas and Louisiana. I just think there's enough question marks with these two offenses to have a total pushing 60. 

Let's start with the Longhorns. Texas has to replace one of their better QBs in the history of this program in Sam Ehlinger. He was the heart and soul of that offense last year and now it's on the shoulders of freshman Huson Card. 

Let's also not forget the Longhorns are learning a whole new offense under new head coach (also calls the plays) Steve Sarkisian. He was really good at Alabama, but a lot of that was simply talent. 

You might be asking what questions I got for a Ragin' Cajuns offense that brings back 10 starters from a team that put up 33.6 ppg and 422 ypg in 2020. It's easily the loss of their top two running backs Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas. These two combined to rush for 1,636 yards and 18 TDs. That was in just 11 games. I just don't trust quarterback Levi Lewis to carry the load. 

The other big thing is these are two teams that figure to be pretty good defensively. Lafayette only gave up 22 ppg and 355 ypg last year and we really saw how that talent stacks up when they went on the road and held Iowa State to just 14 points and 303 yards in a shocking 31-14 upset of the Cyclones. Give me the UNDER 58.5! 

50* (CFB) UNC/Va Tech ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 64) 

I will take the UNDER 64 in Friday's ACC showdown between North Carolina and Virginia Tech. I think there's a couple factors that have the number here way too high. One of those being how high scoring last year's game was. The Tar Heels won 56-45 as the two put up over 100 points. 

The other is the perception of UNC and how potent are thinking their offense will be with Sam Howell back under center (talk he might be the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft). 

I just don't see a repeat of last year. You got to remember that Va Tech had a number of defensive guys miss time because of injury or covid. They also were in the midst of a transition from legendary defensive coordinator Bud Williams. New offensive coordinator Justin Hamilton was behind the 8-ball from the get go. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hokies shaved over a TD off their 32.1 ppg they allowed last year. 

I also look at UNC's defense as being much improved. Tar Heels got 10 starters back from a very young unit that suffered through some growing pains. They got the size and speed to be one of the best defenses in Chapel Hill in more than a decade. 

As for Howell and the Tar Heels offense, there's no denying Howell's talents. It's not him that has me concerned about the UNC offense. It's the fact that the Tar Heels lost two 1,000 yards rushers, as well as their top two receivers (combined 1,783 yards, 14 TDs). I don't see this offense being near as potent in 2021, especially not early in the year. Give me the UNDER 64! 

40* (CFB) - Ohio St/Minn Total NO-BRAINER (Over 62.5) 

I will take my chances with the OVER 62.5 in Thursday's Big Ten showdown between Minnesota and Ohio State. I got this one getting into the 70s, as I look for a lot of fireworks offensively from both teams. 

There's plenty of skeptics out there with Buckeyes freshman quarterback CJ Stroud and his ability to keep this offense rolling without Justin Fields under center. The hype around Stroud might be a little much, but he's in the perfect situation. Ohio State is loaded at wide receiver, have one of the best offensive lines in the country and are going to be able to run the football. 

I just don't think the Gophers have the speed or talent defensively to keep Ohio State from scoring at will. Not even an underrated homefield edge will be able to help them. Minnesota is in the bottom 5 in the Big Ten on the defensive line, at linebacker and in the secondary. 

The only way the Gophers are keeping this close, is if they go score for score with the Buckeyes. I'm not so sure they will be able to score enough to cover the 14-point spread, but I feel pretty good about them scoring enough to push this over the total. 

Minnesota's got 10 starters back on offense. They have an experienced signal caller in Tanner Morgan, a first team Big Ten back in Mohamed Ibrahim and one of the top offensive lines in the country. They will be up a very inexperienced Ohio State defense that has just 2 starters back on the front 7 and loses their top 5 tacklers. Keep in mind this is a defense that slipped last year, giving up over 400 ypg. It wouldn't shock me if the Gophers scored 30+ in this game. Give me the OVER 62.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 58.5) 

I love the OVER 58.5 in Thursday's matchup that has NC State hosting USF. I would be shocked if these two teams failed to hit 60 in this one. 

NC State is going to have a potent offense in 2021. I really like sophomore quarterback Devin Leary. He only made 3 starts last year before being lost for the season. He threw for 890 yards with a 8-2 TD/INT ratio in those 3 starts. They got everyone back at the skill positions and a veteran offensive line. 

That offense will be up against a Bulls defense that has a lot of question marks. South Florida couldn't stop anybody last year. They gave up 39.9 ppg and 441 ypg. That's with them holding the Citadel to a mere 6-points on 284 yards. They gave up over 200 ypg and 5.0 ypc against the run and opposing QBs completed 60% of their attempts. 

The big key here is I think USF is going to be able to put up a decent amount of points as well. Even with 10 starters back on defense, I got big time concerns with the Wolfpack on that side of the ball. They gave up 40+ points 4 times. 

As for the Bulls offense, I think they are going to be one of the most improved units in the country after averaging just 23.1 ppg and 365 ypg last year. They got one of the rising stars at OC in Charlie Weis Jr. The problem last year is it was the first year under a new staff and their just wasn't the proper time to implant the offense with the pandemic. We saw a bit of a flash of their potential in last year's finale, as they put up 46 points and nearly 650 yards (646) in a game against UCF. Give me the OVER 58.5! 

40* BROWNS/CHIEFS NFL TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 57)

This game has shootout written all over it. The Chiefs are going to score. Since Mahomes took over as the starter Kansas City is averaging 38 ppg when coming off a bye. Last year in their Divisional game off a bye they put up 51 points against the Texans in a game that saw a combined 82 points score. While turnovers plagued the Steelers offense last week against the Browns, Big Ben threw all over that defense. Expect Mahomes to have a field day in this one. Key here is Cleveland has the fire-power offensively to go score-for-score with the Chiefs, at least early on. The only thing that keeps this from going over is both teams having to settle for field goals instead of TDs because they are going to move the ball between the 20s. Give me the OVER 57! 

40* RAVENS/TITANS NFL STEAMROLLER (OVER 54) 

I got no problem taking the OVER 54 in Sunday's Wild Card matchup between the Titans and Ravens. These were two of the hottest offenses in the league down the stretch. Baltimore averaged 37.2 ppg in their 5-game winning streak to close out the regular-season. Some will argue that came against a bunch of bad teams. While the Titans are not a bad team, they do field one of the worst defenses in the league. 

Fighting for their playoff lives, Tennessee allowed 34.3 ppg and 445 ypg in their last 3 games of the regular-season, giving up a ridiculous 7.3 yards/play in the process. 

What you can say about the Ravens late season surge is they didn't play many good offenses in that stretch. However, the only decent one they faced was the Browns and Cleveland put up 42 points and nearly 500 yards against them. Titans scored 30 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Give me the OVER 54! 

50* OLE MISS/INDIANA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 65) 

Whenever Ole Miss is involved it's almost always going to end up being a high-scoring game and I don't see any reason why this will be any different. I know Indiana lost starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., but backup Jack Tuttle has had more than enough time to prepare for this game, as Indiana hasn't played since Dec. 5. 

More importantly, Tuttle won't have to do it all against this awful Ole Miss defense. Indiana has a big time running back to carry the load in Stevie Scott III, who will be up against a Rebels defense that allows 211 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry. 

As for the Ole Miss offense, few teams have been able to slow down Lane Kiffin's attack. The Rebels averaged 40.7 ppg (allowed 40.3 ppg). They did so with a very balanced attack, as they averaged 218 rushing yards/game and 345 passing yards/game. 

The only two offense that the Hoosiers faced that are close to this Ole Miss attack is Penn State and Ohio State and they couldn't really stop either. The Nittany Lions put up 35 points on 488 yards, while the Buckeyes scored 42 and had over 600 yards of total offense. Give me the OVER 65! 

40* BILLS/PATRIOTS NFL SHARP STAKE (Under 47) 

I like the UNDER 47 between the Bills and Patriots on Monday Night Football. These two teams only combined for 45 in the first meeting and that was with 17 points being scored in the 4th quarter. It was a 14-6 game with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. 

I know the Patriots are completely out of it, but I don't see them laying down at home on MNF against a division rival. On top of that, Belichick's defensive mastermind has been a thorn for Buffalo's Josh Allen. In Allen's 4 starts against the Pats the Bills have only averaged 15.8 ppg and that dips down to 14.5 ppg in two games at New England. He's only completed 50.4% of his attempts with an average of 183.0 ypg (3-6 TD-INT ratio). 

On the flip side of this, you have an anemic New England offense led by Cam Newton. The Pats really don't offer much in the passing game. I expect them to try and ugly up this game by running it a lot and keeping Allen and the Bills offense off the field. Either way, hard to expect a lot out of this offense, which has scored just 15 points in their last two games combined. Give me the UNDER 47! 

40* FALCONS/CHIEFS NFL STEAMROLLER (Over 52.5) 

I see quite a bit of value here with the OVER 52.5 between the Chiefs and Falcons. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense are really clicking in the 2nd half of the season and should be in for a big day here against an Atlanta defense that is giving up 6.3 yards/play on the season.

The even bigger key is that the Falcons aren't a team that's going to try to run the ball and play keep away from the Chiefs offense. Matt Ryan and company will take the challenge head on and try to go score-for-score with KC. Something they are very capable of doing, as this is far from a dominant Chiefs defense. KC also does a really poor job of putting pressure on opposing QBs so Ryan is going to have time to attack the Chiefs secondary down the field. 

OVER is 11-3 in the Chiefs last 14 games in the 2nd half of the season vs a team that is giving up 5.65 or more yards/play (average combined score in these games is 63.5 points) and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 at home vs teams who average 235 or more passing yards/game (average score in this situation is 61.3 points). Give me the OVER 52.5! 

40* VIKINGS/SAINTS NFL SHARP STAKE (Over 50.5)

I'm going to take the OVER 50.5 in Friday's NFL matchup on Christmas Day. I just think we are going to see quite a bit of scoring from both teams. Minnesota has a laundry list of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. That front 7 they are going to send out will look nothing like what they had hoped to start the year. 

I think that's a big edge for Drew Brees and the Saints. While New Orleans is down some receivers, they are going to want to get this offense going before the playoffs. They should be able to run at will, plus Brees should be able to dink and dunk with those backs against a bunch of inexperienced linebackers. 

Not to mention we could see absolutely no effort from Minnesota on defense, as they just had their playoff hopes all but crashed in last week's loss to the Bears. 

As for the Vikings offense, they got some weapons to work with and few are better a meaningless stats than Kirk Cousins. They could also catch a big break here with NO's best pass rusher Trey Hendrickson questionable, as well as free safety Marcus Williams (really no reason for Saints to rush either guy back). Give me the OVER 50.5! 

50* HAWAII/HOUSTON NEW MEXICO BOWL TOP PLAY (Over 59.5) 

I'm going to take the OVER 59.5 between Hawaii and Houston on Christmas Eve. I just don't see either team putting up of a fight on the defensive end. That's because I don't see either defense being able to slow down the run game.

Hawaii hasn't been able to stop the run all season. The Rainbow Warriors go into this game allowing 231 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry. Houston is slightly better, allowing only 173 yards/game and 4.3 yards/carry, but they will be without two of their best players in linebacker Grant Stuard and defensive end Payton Turner. Stuard is a massive loss as he's the one guy that you can always count on being around the ball. His 61 tacklers are 32 more than the next best player on this team. 

I know wind could be a bit of a factor, but I don't think it will be enough to keep these offenses from putting up points. When you can run the ball, your chances of finishing drives with TDs and not FGs goes up dramatically. I also think both teams are going to have to sell out on the run, which should leave some big opportunities in the pass game. Give me the OVER 59.5! 

40* N TEXAS/APP ST MYRTLE BEACH BOWL VEGAS INSIDER (Under 68)

I think the total has climbed up enough that the value is now on the UNDER at 68. North TExas has been a team that has found themselves in a lot of high-scoring games, but I just don't think this game will be one of them. The Mean Green lost their biggest offensive threat in wide out Jaelon Darden, who had 74 catches for 1,190 yards and 19 TDs. No other player had more than 25 receptions and the rest of the team accounted for a mere 6 receiving scores. 

Appalachian State is also a team that wants to run the ball and dominate the time of possession. While their figures to be some big holes and long runs for the Mountaineers against this North Texas defense, I still think we stay below the number. Keep in mind App State has a good defense, so it may just be the Mountaineers who are scoring and you need both teams to hit a total like this. Give me the UNDER 68! 

40* STANFORD/UCLA NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Over 59) 

I look for UCLA and Stanford to have little to no problem hitting the 60-point mark on Saturday, which makes the OVER 59 an easy play for me. Chip Kelly finally has the Bruins offense performing up to what we would expect, as they come in averaging 33.5 ppg behind a very balanced attack. UCLA is averaging 220 yards/game and 4.9 yards/carry on the ground and 230 yards/game with a 64% completion rate in the passing game. 

That high-powered offense will be up against a Stanford defense that has really struggled. While they have held each of their last 3 opponents under 30 points, those 3 were all bad offensive teams in Cal, Washington and Oregon State. The Cardinal gave up 35 in each of their first two games against Oregon and and Colorado and I'm confident they give up at least that in this one. 

UCLA just allowed 43 in their last game to USC and have also given up 38 to Oregon and 48 to Colorado, so it's not like the Bruins are much better on the defensive end. Stanford's offense has been able to move the ball with Mills at quarterback and he should have a big game here against a soft UCLA secondary. Give me the OVER 59! 

40* BOISE ST/SAN JOSE ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Over 55.5) 

I really wanted to take the touchdown here with San Jose State, but I think the much safer play is on the OVER 55.5. For starters, when these two played last year, they combined for 94 points in a 52-42 win for Boise State. Both teams racked up over 460 yards of total offense. 

San Jose State comes in having scored at least 28 points in each of their last 5 games and all we need here is for both teams to hit 28 points to cash the over. Boise State has scored 40 or more in 4 of their last 6 and are averaging 36.2 ppg on the season, scoring almost 11 points/game more than what their opponents give up. So while the Spartans only give up 17.5 ppg, I don't think they are slowing this Broncos offense down. Give me the OVER 55.5!

50* RAVENS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 46.5) 

I love the UNDER in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between AFC North rivals Browns and Ravens. I think we are getting value here with the UNDER after Cleveland's game last week against the Titans, which saw a combined 76 points in the Browns 41-35 win. 

I know Baker Mayfield has looked great here of late, but let's not overlook the fact that his last two games have come against two of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Jags and Titans. I mean he was throwing to wide open guys against Tennessee. Baltimore isn't going to give them those easy looks and most importantly the Ravens have the front 7 that can contain the Browns ground game. 

The other big thing to note is that these two combined for 44 back in Week 1 with Baltimore scoring 38. With much colder conditions, a lot more tape on each team and winds expected to be blowing at close to 15 mph, I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to score 20 points. Give me the UNDER 46.5! 

50* GEORGIA/MIZZU NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 54) 

I'm a bit shocked the total here is this low, as I think both of these teams can and will be able to put points on the board this Saturday. This is not the same Georgia offense that we saw early in the year now that J.T. Daniels is at quarterback. 

Daniels made his first start two games ago against a good Mississippi State defense and completed 28 of 38 for 401 yards and 4 scores. While he only threw for 139 yards in last weeks game against South Carolina, he only had to attempt 16 passes. They still put up 471 yards, as they racked up 332 rushing yards. In his two games as a starter they are averaging 440 yards, well above their season average of 397. 

I see no reason why Georgia won't be able to put up a big number against Missouri's defense. The Tigers just allowed Arkansas to score 48 with 292 rushing yards and 274 passing yards. Really any time this Tigers defense has faced a capable offense they have struggled. They allowed 41 to Florida, 41 to LSU, 38 to Alabama and also 35 to a bad Tennessee offense. 

Georgia's defense is good but not elite like it has been or was expected to be this year. Their biggest weakness is stopping the pass and Missouri has racked up 380 passing yards in each of their last two games. I really think both teams will score in the 30s and all we really need is for one to hit this total. Give me the OVER 54! 

40* NEVADA/SAN JOSE ST NCAAF LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Over 58.5) 

I like the over quite a bit in Friday's late night action out of the Mountain West that has two of the league's best facing off in San Jose State and Nevada. This number might seem high to some given the defensive numbers these two teams boast, but so much of those great defensive numbers are a result of a lot of bad offenses they have faced. 

I think both offenses are going to be able to have success in this game. Nevada comes in averaging 31.3 ppg and 442 yards/game with a healthy 6.6 yards/play. San Jose State is averaging 30.4 ppg, 419 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. 

Both of these teams can really light up teams with their passing attacks and last year both teams threw all over each other. San Jose State racked up 405 passing yards against Nevada and the Wolf Pack weren't far behind with 352 passing yards. The two teams combined for 79 points with a very similar total (61) to what we see in this meeting. Give me the OVER 58.5! 

50* BC/VIRGINIA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 54.5) 

I think these two are going to fly past the total of 54.5. Both of these teams have the ability to put up points. Virginia has scored at least 31 in each of their last 3 games. BC has scored 31 or more in each of their last two. 

Not only can both teams score, but both teams are pretty good at giving up points. The Cavaliers have allowed 38 or more in 4 games this season. The Eagles have allowed 27 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. They only exception coming against low life Syracuse. I think there's a good chance both teams score 30 in this one and we don't even need that. 28-27 would do the trick. 

OVER is also 9-2 in Virginia's last 11 home games and the average combined score in these 11 games is 63.6. Almost a full 10 points more than the number we are playing. Give me the OVER 54.5! 

40* PURDUE/NEBRASKA NCAAF O/U STEAMROLLER (Over 62.5) 

There's not much at stake for either of these teams. Nebraska comes in at 1-4 in what has been an embarrassment of a season for the Cornhuskers. Making matters worse, they are coming off a crushing loss to rival Iowa. It's not much better at Purdue, who after starting 2-0 is now 2-3 and off a loss at home to Rutgers. 

Simply put, there's no motivation for either team to get up for this game and I think we could see both defenses not all that interested. At the same time, there's no reason to hold anything back offensively and both of these offenses should be able to play to their strengths in this game. 

History is also on our side. OVER is a perfect 8-0 in Nebraska's last 8 games as a road dog of 3 points or less and 13-1 in Purdue's last 14 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 62.5! 

50* SEAHAWKS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 48.5) 

I wanted to take Seattle, but I just don't feel like laying a touchdown on the road with this Seahawks team. Seattle has lost each of their last 3 road games, two of which they went off as the favorite. 

The good news is, I see a ton of value with the OVER at less than 50. In Seattle's 5 road games 4 have seen a combined score of at least 54 points with 3 going for 63 or more. Only exception was at LA vs the Rams. 

It's a combination of how great this Seahawks offense is and how poor the defense has been. There's so much talent across the board with the Seattle offense and I just feel this Eagles defense is better suited to stop the run. 

I know Wentz has been awful and there's talk that Hurts is going to get a long look, I think they can get something going here at home against this Seattle defense. Seattle is giving up 30.4 ppg, 450 ypg and 6.5 yards/play on the road this season. Give me the OVER 48.5!

40* CHIEFS/BUCS NFL SLAUGHTER (Over 55.5) 

I don't think there's any reason to overthink this one. I know Brady and the Bucs have had their struggles of late, but I just don't think the Chiefs defense is going to be able to keep them in check. I think we get one of the good games from Tampa Bay's offense. 

As for the Chiefs, there's no one getting in the way of Mahomes and that offense right now. Mahomes will be welcoming back Sammy Watkins, giving him a weapon he's really missed the last few weeks. I just really think you can exploit this Bucs defense down the field and that's a recipe for disaster against Mahomes and this offense. I think there's a chance that both teams score into the 30's but we really just need one of the two to go off, as I don't see a scenario where either team scores fewer than 24 points. Play the OVER 55.5! 

40* PANTHERS/VIKINGS NFL SHARP STAKE (Over 51) 

I like the OVER 51 in today's matchup between the Panthers and Vikings. I know Carolina won't have McCaffrey and Thielen is out for the Vikings, but there's more than enough weapons on these two offenses to expose the poor talent these two have on the defensive side of the ball. 

Carolina only managed 20 against the Lions last week with P.J. Walker at quarterback, but that was his first start and they should have had a lot more, as Walker threw two interceptions in the endzone. Bridgewater will be back and should expose a bad Vikings secondary. 

Vikings should be able to ride Cook and rookie wideout Jefferson to a lot of points. Don't be fooled by the shoutout from the Panthers defense last week against Detroit. Lions had all their key guys out and Stafford was playing at like 70%. The week before they gave up 46 to the Bucs. 

I think at least one of these teams hit 30 points and both should score no fewer than 20, which makes 51 a very easy number to hit. Give me the OVER 51! 

50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 53.5) 

I love the OVER 53.5 in Sunday's matchup between the Raiders and Falcons. I don't see a great defensive effort here from Las Vegas after that crushing loss the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. With that said, even in normal circumstances I would be high on this Atlanta offense against this Raiders defense. 

While I'm not expecting a great effort defensively, I do think Carr and that Raiders offense will come to play and they too will be up against a deflated defense in the Falcons, who couldn't stop Taysom Hill and the Saints last week. 

These are really two identical teams. Vegas is scoring 28.6 ppg and giving up 27.6 ppg. Atlanta is scoring 25.2 ppg and allowing 27.5 ppg. I think both teams hit the 30-point mark. Not only do we have ideal conditions with the game indoors, but these non-confernece matchups always seem to be a little higher scoring, as there's just not much familiarity with the two teams. 

Speaking to that, OVER is 7-0 last 2 seasons in non-conference games involving the Raiders. OVER is also 33-18 in Atlanta's last 51 after a road loss by 14 or more. Give me the OVER 53.5! 

50* GEORGIA/S CAROLINA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49) 

I really think people are sleeping on the Bulldogs right now. I think the perception is that because Georgia no longer has a clear path to the SEC East title and thus the playoffs, this team doesn't care. 

I get that expectations are sky-high with this Bulldogs' program, but I don't that this was like previous years in terms of hype. I mean Georgia didn't have their guy at QB to start the year. If J.T. Daniels (USC transfer) would have been ready from the start I think this team would have beat Florida and who knows against Alabama. 

Daniels finally got on the field last week and was spectacular, throwing for 401 yards and 4 TDs against Mississippi State. I get the Bulldogs aren't a great team, but they have put up pretty good defensive numbers this season. Either way, 400 yards and 4 TDs is impressive.

I see no reason to not keep letting Daniels chuck the ball around the field. There's nothing to lose for Georgia at this point. I really wouldn't be shocked at all if the Bulldogs flirted with this total on their own. South Carolina has allowed 48 or more points in 3 of their last 4. Give me the OVER 49!  

50* PURDUE/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 59.5) 

We will take our chances here with Minnesota and Purdue combining for at least 60 points in Friday's Big Ten action. While each of the last two games for the Gophers went UNDER, one was a result of their opponent not being able to score (Illinois) and last week it was Iowa's defense taking away the running game, as Minnesota managed just 7 points after scoring 40+ in each of their previous two games. 

The Gophers offense is much better when they run the ball, but note that last year they scored 38 on Purdue with just 92 rushing yards, as Tanner Morgan threw for 396 yards and 4 scores. Boilermakers had 31 points of their own, as the two combined for 69 points. 

OVER is also 37-17 in the Gophers last 54 at home off a game where they failed to cover and a dominant 22-8 in their last 30 as a home dog of 7 or less. Give me the OVER 59.5! 

50* N ILLINOIS/BALL ST *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 62) 

I know these are two defenses that have struggled to keep points off the scoreboard. Northern Illinois is giving up 44.4 ppg and Ball State is allowing 34.5 ppg. I just think the numbers are a bit inflated for Northern Illinois. 

The Huskies combined for 79 points in their opener against Buffalo, losing 49-30. However, the Bulls scored 3 defensive touchdowns. A game that was just 21-16 at the half turned into 49-16 in less than 20 minutes on the clock.

In last week's game against Central Michigan, it was 26-0 going into the 4th quarter before the two teams put up 24 to end up at 50. 

Given how much Northern Illinois struggles to score, I just don't see these two teams getting to 63 unless there's a bunch of crazy scores. 

Also, both of these teams like to run the ball and both offenses might be even more inclined to run in this game. There's expected to be crosswinds approaching 20 mph. This should help limit the possessions with fewer big plays thru the air. Give me the UNDER 62!