Given all the skill position talent, outstanding offensive coaching and this game being played indoors, I'm going Over this total.

There were 73 combined points in last year's Super Bowl between the Eagles and Chiefs. While I don't believe the 49ers and Chiefs will get anywhere near that number, I do believe there will be more than 50 points produced by the two teams.

Andy Reid is one of the best offensive innovator head coaches of all-time. Kyle Shanahan is an elite play-caller. Give these coaches two weeks to prepare and they should design excellent schemes and game plans.

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and already one of the all-time greats. He has a Hall of Fame tight end, Travis Kelce, wide receiver depth and a solid running back in Isiah Pacheco, who is running behind an improved run-blocking offensive line.

San Francisco has an average secondary and its overall defense has not looked good in its two playoff games. Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards, while averaging 6.0 yards a carry, against the 49ers and the Lions rushed for 182 yards on 29 carries - a 6.3 yards per run average - against San Francisco. Mahomes is going to be highly effective if the Chiefs are running the ball well. The Chiefs put up 31 points when they met the 49ers in the Super Bowl four seasons ago.

Kansas City has its best defense of the Reid/Mahomes era. But the rules highly favor offense and the 49ers have numerous weapons for Brock Purdy with Christian McCaffrey - the best all-purpose back in the league - Deebo Samuel - the best combination of receiver/runner in the NFL - emerging star Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and versatile fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

The Chiefs just lost two of their defensive linemen to injuries, Charles Omenihu and Derrick Nnadi. The 49ers are averaging 31.1 points in their last 10 games in which Purdy has started. Kansas City's defense is good, but not elite. It can't stop all of those 49ers weapons.

San Francisco has an elite defense. Detroit's defense is somewhat underrated. I don't trust Jared Goff in an outdoor big game even though there won't be bad weather. I don't consider Brock Purdy an elite quarterback. Deebo Samuel could be limited.

Those are my reasons, in a nutshell, why I don't see this rather high total going Over.

The 49ers surrendered the third-fewest points in the league at 17.5. They also have the No. 3 run defense and were sixth in takeaways. San Francisco gave up 21 or fewer points in seven of its last nine games. I seriously question how effective Goff will be on the road against this caliber of defense.

The Lions are tough to run on. They gave up the second-fewest rushing yards and were fourth in causing negative plays. Detroit hasn't yielded more than 24 points during any of its last six games. The Lions held both the Chiefs and Cowboys to just 20 points each when they played them on the road.

Purdy didn't look good against the Packers last week. Many of his throws were not accurate. The 49ers are reliant on Samuel, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The 49ers averaged 7.1 yards per play with Samuel and 5.7 yards per play without him. 

The total has been bet up in anticipation of a Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff shootout. I'm not buying into that storyline.

Yes, there are some very good skill position players involved. But this is a high total and these defenses are not as bad as some perceive. I also believe there will be more running plays than expected. 

Raheem Morris is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. He's done a fine job with the Rams this season. Aaron Donald still is in his dominant prime. Morris has the Rams playing a lot of soft coverage. This invites the run and prevents big plays from happening. It's good for the Under. 

Lions coach Dan Campbell isn't afraid to feature a lot of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. The Rams held seven of their last nine opponents to 22 or fewer points. Just once did the Rams allow an opposing runner to gain 100 rushing yards.

Goff's top red zone target is tight end Sam LaPorta, who set a rookie record with 86 catches and ranked No. 1 in red zone touchdowns for tight ends. LaPorta suffered a knee injury in the Lions' Week 18 victory against the Vikings. He'll be limited if he plays. Also hurt in that game was Kalif Raymond, a dangerous return man for the Lions. 

The Rams use Kyren Williams to set up their passing attack. Detroit's defense strength is its run defense. The Lions finished third in yards per carry allowed and No. 2 in run defense limiting opposing runners to 88.8 yards per game.

I find this total too high for a pair of inexperienced playoff teams. C.J. Stroud is an extraordinary rookie. But he's going against a Cleveland defense that gave up the fewest yards per game and finished No. 2 in the metric DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Stroud also has to deal with maybe the best pass rusher in the league, Myles Garrett.

Joe Flacco has been a remarkable story saving the Browns' season. But what's been overlooked about Flacco, who turns 39 in a matter of days, is he has thrown eight interceptions in his five starts with Cleveland.

I envision the Browns being heavily run-oriented against the Texans. The Colts had great success on the ground vs the Texans. But they had Jonathan Taylor. The Browns don't have an above average runner with Nick Chubb sidelined.

Houston's defense is going to get reinforced, too, this week with the return of star pass rushing rookie Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Blake Cashman, an underrated player who racks up tackles. The Texans also might get back defensive lineman Jonathan Greenard.

This is an NFL regular season game masquerading as an exhibition game with an exhibition type total.

No Patrick Mahomes. No Justin Herbert nor Keenan Allen.

The Chiefs are locked into the No. 3 playoff seed in the AFC. The Chargers are rudderless awaiting a new coach. Andy Reid has told his Chiefs to go out and have fun. The Chiefs won't have Mahomes, but their quarterback-friendly offensive system is in place.

So I see a loosely, played game with each team not afraid to take chances.

The headline is Mahomes not playing. But many key defensive players won't be in action either. The Chargers already have ruled out Joey Bosa and Kenneth Murray. The Chiefs could sit out their best defensive player, star pass rusher Chris Jones. He's dealing with a groin injury.

Blaine Gabbert will fill-in for Mahomes. He's one of the better backup QB's in the league. He's backed by an above average offense. The Chiefs don't have any stars at wide receiver, but they do have good wide receiving depth. The bar is set low for Kansas City's offense. The Chargers rank 29th in total defense and 30th in pass defense. They just surrendered 63 points to the Raiders three weeks ago.

Easton Stick will be making his fifth straight QB start for the Chargers. He has command of the offense. The Chargers, like the Chiefs, are a passing offense. Unlike other Week 18 games, weather won't factor here with clear skies, temperatures in the high 50's and little wind.

The Vikings' defense has improved under ace defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Minnesota has held four of its last six opponents to 21 or fewer points.

Kevin O'Connell did the Packers a big favor by having rookie Jaren Hall start. Hall has passed for a total of 101 yards in the NFL. This signals the Vikings are going to be extra cautious and conservative in this matchup.

Jaire Alexander is suspended. But he's missed most of the season and hasn't played up to his elite level when he has been on the field. The Vikings also are without star tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Since returning from a finger injury, Matthew Stafford has been one of the best QB's in the NFL throwing for 1,578 yards with a 15-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last six games. 

Setting up Stafford has been the emergence of Kyren Williams as an elite running back. The second-year running back tops the NFL averaging 96.1 yards rushing a game. The Giants rank 29th in run defense. So an effective Williams should mean another big performance for Stafford and his stud wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. 

Making it worse for the Giants is they are banged-up in their defensive line. 

The buy sign is on the Giants offense with Brian Daboll going with veteran Tyrod Taylor at quarterback instead of Tommy DeVito. 

Weather won't be a factor with temperatures in the 40's, clear skies and only a slight wind.

This is the supreme fade spot on the Raiders' offense after they put up 63 points against the hapless Chargers at home last week. Despite that result, Las Vegas' offense isn't very good, quarterbacked by Aidan O'Connell. The Raiders averaged just 11.5 points in their previous four games before hosting the Chargers.

The Chiefs entered this week surrendering the third-fewest points per game at 17.5. Their defense is strong and is even better with linebacker Nick Bolton back from injury.

Kansas City's offense is way down from past Patrick Mahomes seasons. The Chiefs are outside of the top-10 in scoring. This is the weakest wide receiver group Mahomes has had.

Weather is going to factor, too. The forecast is for showers, possibly snow, with temperatures dipping below 32. The Raiders are an indoors team that hasn't played in a bad weather game all season.

Geno Smith has missed Seattle's last two games. When Smith last played it was against the Cowboys. He accounted for four touchdowns and threw for 334 yards leading the Seahawks to 35 points in a 41-35 road loss. Smith is capable of games like that aided by having three excellent wide receivers and two good running backs. Smith will be back in action for this matchup.

Smith's task will be made easier by the Titans' cluster injury problem on defense. Among those out for Tennessee is lineman Jeffery Simmons. He's the Titans best defensive player. The Titans' secondary is decimated by injuries. Among those out are cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Sean Murphy-Bunting along with safeties Amani Hooker and K'Von Wallace. Defensive backs Shyheim Carter and Tae Gowan have been called up from the practice squad.

The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention. That should ensure a loose game from them with nothing to lose. Ryan Tannehill is back at quarterback with Will Levis unable to go. Tannehill is playing for his NFL future. Derrick Henry also is in rebound mode coming off one of his worst performances.

Seattle has its own injuries in the secondary. Safety Jamal Adams has been ruled out and cornerback Devon Witherspoon is out, too, with a hip injury.

The last three games in this series have gone Over. There have been at least 52 points scored during each of those past three games. I see that pattern continuing.

The Lions have tremendous firepower with Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and explosive Jamison Williams. The Vikings are heavy blitzers. But Jared Goff will be well-protected with the Lions' excellent offensive line healthy again.

Goff usually is at his finest playing on a fast track in a dome setting like in this matchup. Detroit ranks in the top-five in many of the major offensive categories, including points, yards, passing and rushing.  

Detroit's defense has been exposed as fraudulent. The Lions are giving up an average of 27.2 points in their last eight games.

The Vikings have the right backup quarterback in place now with veteran Nick Mullens. He's a much better distributor than Joshua Dobbs or rookie Jaren Hall. Justin Jefferson is healthy, giving Mullens a great wideout to go with star tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Look for a lot of back and forth scoring with this one getting into the 50's just like in their three previous head-to-head matchups.

Texas-San Antonio's defense improved starting in Week 4. The Roadrunners held their last seven opponents to an average of 21.4 points. Marshall's offense is very unimposing. The Thundering Herd ranked 93rd in scoring and 89th in total yards.

And that was with their regular QB, Cam Fancher. Now Marshall won't have Fancher, who entered the transfer portal. Next man up for Marshall is Cole Pennington. He's a redshirt freshman and the son of Chad Pennington, the former Jets quarterback. Pennington saw action in three games. He threw six interceptions and had no TD passes.

UTSA's offense was decent, but not as good as some expected. The Roadrunners could manage only 16 points against Tulane in their last game.

I don't see many points being scored in this LA Bowl matchup of UCLA vs Boise State. UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country despite playing in the pass-happy Pac-12, which had the best quarterbacks of any conference.

The Bruins rank 15th in scoring defense giving up 18.1 points. They also ranked third in the nation in run defense and 11th in total defense.

Boise State QB Taylen Green was named the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year. Unfortunately for the Broncos, Green transferred to Arkansas following the end of the regular season. So true freshman CJ Tiller will start against the Bruins. Tiller has yet to throw his first college pass. The Broncos also lose Green's rushing threat. He was second on the team in rushing touchdowns with nine. Tiller faces a UCLA pass rush that had the sixth-most sacks in the country with 41.

The Broncos peaked defensively down the stretch holding their last four foes - New Mexico, Utah State, Air Force and UNLV - to an average of 15.7 points.

UCLA has quarterback problems. The Bruins' highly-touted freshman QB, Dante Moore, entered the transfer portal. That leaves Ethan Garbers and Collin Schlee. Both are banged-up and neither has been overly effective. The Bruins could manage just a combined 24 points against California, Arizona and Arizona State during three of the last four games.

This is a low total for a Colts home game. Indy has gone Over in 69 percent of its games under innovative and aggressive Shane Steichen.

The Colts are the eighth-highest scoring team in the NFL at 24.2 points per game. They have scored 27 or more points in five of their last seven games.

I expect the Steelers to keep up. They gained more than 400 yards for the first time this season three weeks ago against the Bengals. It was not a coincidence it was their first game since firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. There was a big buzz then about Pittsburgh's improved offense.

The Steelers are more explosive and use better schemes since getting rid of Canada, who seemed to think the only pass worth throwing was an out-of-bounds sideline pass to George Pickens. But the offensive improvement didn't show the past two games because the Steelers had to play in horrible weather conditions against the Cardinals and then went up against New England's upper-tier defense, although still managing 21 points against the Patriots.

Now the Steelers are dropping way down in defensive class facing the Colts, who rank 29th in scoring defense giving up 25.4 points a game. The Colts are 27th in run defense and 25th in total defense.

Mitch Trubisky is just as good as Kenny Pickett. Yes I know that's a low bar. But Trubisky is far more mobile and he has three quality receivers and two reliable running backs to help him out against a bad defense on Indy's fast dome track.

Miami has the most explosive and intriguing offense in the NFL. The Dolphins lead the league in yards and are second in points at 32 per game. They also have had the most plays of plus 25 and plus 50 yard gains.

The Titans would be hard-pressed to keep the Dolphins in check if they had all of their best defensive players. But they will be without their top lineman, Jeffery Simmons, and cornerback, Kristian Fulton. So this sets up as another big-scoring game for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle. Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The Titans gave up 34 points to the Jaguars in their last road game.

The Dolphins can come close to covering this Over themselves. But I expect the Titans to contribute their share of points.

Derrick Henry still has some juice left. He entered this week ranked No. 2 in rushing with 841 yards and eight TD's on the ground. Rookie QB Will Levis had proven to be more gunslinger than game manager, averaging 11.8 yards per completion in six starts, which was the third-highest number in the AFC during the last seven weeks.

The Titans lost their reliable punter, Ryan Stonehouse, to a season-ending injury in last week's, 31-28, overtime loss to the Colts. The Colts blocked two Tennessee punts in that game. The Dolphins are sure to have taken notice.

There are multiple bad weather games this week. This isn't one of them. The forecast is for a sunny day with temperatures in the 40's and little wind.

So Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes won't have any restrictions.

The Bills have been more aggressive in playing to Allen's strengths - which is his running and taking downfield shots - since firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey two games ago. Buffalo is averaging 33 points since Dorsey departed. They had averaged 20.5 points during their previous six games.

The Chiefs were short-handed at linebacker against the Packers last week after Drue Tranquill suffered a concussion. He's questionable as is Nick Bolton, who has been on the injured list. It's a bonus if those two are unable to play.

Mahomes can take advantage of a beat-up Bills defense that has lost their best linebacker and cornerback for the season.

Jordan Love has had two strong games in a row. That was against the Chargers and Lions. Now he steps up facing a much better defense. Kansas City surrenders the third-fewest points per game at 16.5. The Chiefs haven't allowed more than 21 points in a game all season.

The Packers are likely to be missing their best runner again, Aaron Jones. That leaves plodding A.J. Dillon, who isn't 100 percent either because of groin injury, and free agent type of backup runners to handle the ground attack.

Green Bay's defense has been underrated, permitting 18.2 points per game in its last seven games. There's a good chance the Packers get back a number of their injured defensive backs, too, including shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. A healthy Rashan Gary makes a big difference for Green Bay. His snap count has increased as he nears 100 percent. Gary had three sacks against the Lions last Thursday.

The Chiefs have dropped the most passes in the league costing them nearly 300 yards. Expect Kansas City to attack Green Bay's run defense. That means a lot of north/south runner Isiah Pacheco, which is good for the under.

This is a December night game in Green Bay so it will be cold. The forecast is for temperatures in the 20's with a chance of snow.

The Rams are going from playing a bottom-two defense in Arizona to meeting a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards. Night and day.

Before lighting up the Cardinals' dreadful defense last week, the Rams had averaged 14.2 points in their previous four games. The Rams' passing game isn't as good as it looks on paper with Cooper Kupp being close to a non-factor with only six receptions in his last three games for 77 yards.

The Browns can win this game with their tough defense and ground-control running attack. The only thing that can beat the Browns is turnovers. So look for Cleveland to be ultra-conservative on offense knowing that immobile Joe Flacco will be under center.

The Rams have held their last three opponents - Cardinals, Seahawks and Packers - to a combined average of 16.6 points.

Finally free of obtuse offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers produced a season-high 421 yards against the Bengals last week. Kenny Pickett wasn't just restricted to throwing sideline passes like before. Tight end Pat Freiermuth caught nine passes for 120 yards using the middle of the field. Pittsburgh has a strong 1-2 running punch of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to go with one of the better wide receiver tandems, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.

The Steelers weren't utilizing all these weapons properly under Canada. Now they are. Pittsburgh also gets to face a worse defense than Cincinnati - Arizona. Only the Commanders have surrendered more points than the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are more dangerous offensively with Kyler Murray and James Conner back. Going by fantasy football numbers, Murray has been a top-10 quarterback since his return three games ago. The Steelers have yielded the seventh-most yards to wide receivers.

The skill position players on these two teams get the publicity, but the defenses are very good.

Louisville ranks 19th in total defense. The Cardinals catch a major break with Florida State QB Jordan Travis out. The Seminoles could only manage 24 points against Florida last week minus Travis. The Gators had surrendered an average of 41.2 points during their last five games before holding Florida State to 24 points.

Backup Seminoles QB Tate Rodemaker completed fewer than half of his passes for only 134 yards and no touchdowns against the Gators. FSU stud wide receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson are far less effective without Travis throwing to them. Florida State is more run-oriented now with Rodemaker under center. Louisville has the 12th stingiest run defense in the nation.  

Florida State has held its last eight opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Seminoles have faced better quarterbacks than Louisville's Jack Plummer.

Note, too, that the game is being played in Charlotte where the weather forecast is for an 80 percent chance of rain. That should ensure more running plays.

There were 69 points scored when the teams met earlier in the season with Washington winning, 36-33, at home. I don't see nearly that many points being scored in this rematch. Not only do the teams know each other much better now, but Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. isn't playing nearly as well. Penix had a 20-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the first six games this season. However, in his last six games Penix has a 12-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Oregon's defense has picked up the pace, too, holding Arizona State to 13 points and Oregon State to seven points during its last two games. The Ducks have held their last five opponents to an average of 14.4 points. These were quality opponents, too - Utah, California, USC, Arizona State and Oregon State.

Washington has looked better, too, defensively. The Huskies are giving up an average of 23 points in their last three games facing Utah, Oregon State and Washington State.

There's a chance of rain, but no need to be scared off by the weather because wind isn't a factor.

The Bills have the most beat-up defense in the league with numerous injuries, including ones to their top linebacker and cornerback.

The Eagles have one weakness - pass defense where they rank 28th.

Buffalo is in a much better position to have success attacking that weakness with a change in offensive coordinators from fired Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. This change signals that Josh Allen will be reverting back to his old style of running more and the Bills using multiple wide receiver sets with far more pre-snap motion to freeze defenses.

The Bills put up 32 points on a good Jets defense last week in their first game without Dorsey.

The numbers are 64.6 percent completions for 2,389 yards and 15 TD passes. Those numbers belong to Baker Mayfield. Surprised? Mayfield is having a below-the-radar good season. The Buccaneers have no ground attack, but they can effectively air it out.

Mayfield goes from facing the 49ers' daunting defense to drawing Indy's defense that ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 24.8 points a game and is 25th in total defense. Mayfield is at his best finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sitting between defenders in zone coverage. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is notorious for his complete reliance on Cover-2 type zone defenses.

Shane Streichen, the Colts' coach and offensive guru, has had extra time to prepare with the Colts off their bye. He should dial up plenty of passes with the Buccaneers ranked second-to-last in pass defense. The Buccaneers' secondary is made more vulnerable with numerous injuries. Out are star linebacker Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Dean. In addition, cornerback Carlton Davis and linebacker Devin White are each questionable.

Maryland has a Tagovailoa as its quarterback. Unfortunately for the Terrapins that quarterback is Taulia Tagovailoa and not his brother, Tua. The Terrapins' offense has tailed off badly in their last six games dealing with Big Ten opponents. 

Maryland is averaging 20 points during its past half dozen games. Rutgers ranks 11th in the nation in fewest yards allowed. The Scarlet Knights give up 19.1 points a game.

Think defense here - typical of the Big Ten - because I'm not overly fond of Rutgers quarterback, Gavin Wimsatt, either. He hasn't thrown for 200 yards in a game all season. Rutgers is averaging 7.3 points in its last three games. The Scarlet Knights also play extremely slow, ranking in the bottom-10 in tempo. 

Maryland shut out Rutgers in last season's game. 

This has the potential for being a below-the-radar shootout. Trevor Lawrence is way overdue for a big game and he's dropping way down in class after going against the 49ers last week.

The Titans are weak in the secondary. Their statistics haven't looked bad because in their last three games they've faced the following quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield, Kenny Pickett and Taylor Heinicke/Desmond Ridder. Lawrence is way more talented than any of those stiff QB's.

Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel should be astute enough to realize that he needs to establish the pass before he can get Derrick Henry going. This is the opposite approach of what the Titans have been under Vrabel.

Rookie Will Levis has a big arm, a still dangerous DeAndre Hopkins and the Jaguars will be minus their best cornerback, injured Tyson Campbell. Jacksonville has the third-worst pass defense in the NFL. So I expect the Titans to contribute their fair share of points here.

Woody Hayes would be proud. Ohio State ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest points allowed at 9.9 per game.

Minnesota is a ground-oriented team. The Gophers rank 125th passing. So they'll be staying on the ground.

The key to making this Under work is how many points will Ohio State produce?

The Gophers have a slightly above average defense. Ohio State has Michigan in its game of the year up next. So the Buckeyes won't want to show much. Just dominate early and get out. That was exactly what they did against Michigan State last week.

Ohio State went up 35-3 against the Spartans. The Buckeyes then took their foot off the gas pedal winning, 38-3.

Not only have these two run-oriented teams improved defensively, but they also have greatly slowed down their pace. 

North Carolina State has gone Under in seven of its last eight games. The Wolfpack have held their last three opponents - Wake Forest, Miami and Clemson - to a combined average of 9.6 points. The Wolfpack rank 20th in fewest yards allowed per game and are fourth in the nation in takeaways. 

Virginia Tech ranks 22nd in fewest yards allowed. The Hokies held Syracuse to 10 points and Wake Forest to 13 points during two of their past four games. North Carolina State is averaging 18.2 points in its last four games. 

Both teams rate among the top-10 in slowest tempo during their last three games.  

There hasn't been more than 41 combined points scored during North Carolina State's last four games. The average combined score during their Wolfpack's last four games is 31.5 points. Virginia Tech has been held to 17 or fewer points five times this season.

This is a get well game for Washington State's sagging offense. California has surrendered at least 50 points in four games this season. I like Cam Ward to have a strong game for the Cougars against Cal's 127th-ranked secondary.

California should have success passing, too. Washington State ranks 118th in pass defense and 88th in run defense. That should mean a strong game for Jaydn Ott, one of the best running backs in the country.

These teams play at a fast pace, too.

This is too high of a total given that Nevada might be lucky to put up two touchdowns even against a bad Utah State defense. The Wolf Pack have scored 14 or fewer points in five of their nine games. Their QB choice is either ineffective Brendon Lewis untested, raw redshirt freshman, A.J. Bianco. 

Nevada's offensive line has allowed 74 tackles for a loss, fourth-highest in the country. Utah State ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West Conference in tackles behind the line of scrimmage. 

The Aggies are just an average rushing team, but they rank 26th in passing yards. Nevada's defense has shown improvement holding their last three opponents to an average of 17 points. Utah State is turnover prone. The Aggies have thrown 13 interceptions. Only four teams have been picked off more times. 

It's no coincidence the Bengals put up 31 points on the road against a strong 49ers defense last week. Joe Burrow is finally healthy. He looked great. The rest of the Bengals are healthy, too. Joe Mixon actually displayed some explosiveness for the first time this season.

The Bills have played the following QB's in their last three games: Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield. Now they face an elite QB with one of the most banged-up defenses in the NFL. Burrow can exploit Buffalo's long list of key defensive players who are out the way those other QB stiffs couldn't.

Buffalo, in turn, has opened up its offense going back to three wide receiver sets, involving potential star pass-catching rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid more and having Josh Allen run in his reckless fashion. The Bills are playing faster using more no-huddle, all great for the Over.

The weather should be fine for this Sunday night matchup with the forecast calling for temperatures in the low 40's, little wind and clear skies.

The Commanders' already horrific defense just traded defensive linemen Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Those two were maybe their best defenders. The Patriots are minus pass rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Now linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley is questionable with a hamstring injury. Those are New England's three top defensive players. 

Yet the total still remains low by today's NFL offensively-enabled numbers. 

Sam Howell has put up good numbers despite being sacked the most of any QB. He has reliable receiving targets. The Patriots have permitted the ninth-most passing TD's and 11th-most receiving yards. New England is tied for the second-fewest sacks with 15. 

Mac Jones should have a strong game because he'll have a clean pocket. The Commanders rank in the bottom-four in scoring defense, defensive total yards and pass defense.

Unless there's bad weather or key skill position injury concerns, this is too low of a total. The weather is going to be fine and Derrick Henry is set to play. DeAndre Hopkins is likely to suit up, too, so I'm going Over.

Rookie Will Levis threw four TD passes against the Falcons in his pro debut last week. While I don't expect Levis to repeat that a second straight week, he's a plus for the Over because of his strong arm. Injured Ryan Tannehill was the lowest rated starting QB in the league. Tannehill had just two TD passes all season. The threat of a downfield Titans passing attack makes Henry more dangerous because Pittsburgh's defense just can't key on him.

There is a big injury - and it's on the Steelers defense. Star free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is out with a hamstring injury. That's another plus for the Over.

I expect Kenny Pickett to get the QB start for Pittsburgh. He has two strong wide receiving targets in George Pickins and Diontae Johnson. If Pickett can't go, I'm fine with Mitchell Trubisky behind center as this is not a huge total to go Over.

This sets up as a get-well game for Justin Herbert, who has had a disappointing season given his high bar. The Bears defense turned dreadful after the team dealt star linebacker Roquan Smith and pass rusher Robert Quinn at midseason last year.

Chicago finished last in scoring defense and 29th in total defense in 2022. This season the Bears are giving up 28.9 points, which ranks 28th, and they are 29th in pass defense. Safety Jaquan Brisker, the Bears' fourth-leading tackler, already has been ruled out and fellow safety Eddie Jackson is questionable with a foot injury. So Herbert is set up for success.

The Bears were able to slow down the Raiders at home last week because Las Vegas' QB's were Brian Hoyer and Aidan O'Connell. I don't see them doing well against Herbert.

Undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent draws his second NFL start for Chicago. He showed accuracy - more than Justin Fields - and moxie in helping the Bears defeat the Raiders, 30-12, last week. The Bears should open their playbook more for him this week. It just might be that the Bears found a diamond in the rough.  

The Chargers have the worst pass defense in the league. Their secondary, particularly Derwin James, seems more interested in head hunting than in playing smart football. The Chargers are second-to-last in defensive total yards and 25th in scoring defense allowing 25.8 points per game.

Dak Prescott is off his best game of the season. The Cowboys' offensive line is as healthy as it has been all season and getting more in sync. Dallas has had two weeks to prepare, being on its bye last week. The Rams defense is mediocre at best and is stepping up in class after having just played the Steelers and Cardinals.

So I'm confident the Cowboys will produce their share of points hosting the Rams. Dallas is averaging a whooping 38 points per game in its last seven games at AT&T Stadium.

I expect Matthew Stafford to keep up given that he has a healthy Cooper Kupp along with rookie-of-the-year candidate Puka Nacua, who leads the NFL in receptions with 58. The Rams aren't one-dimensional either. Their ground attack is averaging 157 yards rushing the past two weeks.

Micah Parsons is a dominant player, but Dallas defense is not dominant minus its best cornerback, Trevon Diggs, and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch. The Cowboys surrendered 42 points to the 49ers just two weeks ago.

The Rams' field goal kicking can't get worse after they cut Brett Maher, who missed two field goals and an extra point against the Steelers last week.

This total is too high given UCLA's outstanding defense. The Bruins have held foes to an average of 14.9 points a game. They rate No. 2 in run defense and 12th in total defense.

The Bruins could have the best pass rush of any team, too, and Colorado has yielded 35 sacks. Laiatu Latu may be the premier pass rusher in the nation. He has 17 career sacks for the Bruins in 1 1/2 seasons. 

The total is so high because Colorado averages 34.4 points and has a terrible defense. That defense, though, has shown improvement versus the run and is better in the secondary when Travis Hunter plays. He's as good on defense as he is on offense, which is saying a lot.  

UCLA, though, isn't going to take a lot of chances with its quarterbacks. Freshman Dante Moore has been limited in practice due to an injury and Ethan Garbers isn't a gunslinger. Garbers is expected to get the start, which likely means a more conservative game plan from Chip Kelly. 

There's a stand-alone college football game on Friday. That makes this dull American Athletic Conference matchup between Charlotte and Florida Atlantic significant. The marketplace has been active, betting the total up.

It's the wrong move.

Two bad offenses against two mediocre defenses spell Under here especially given the style of play Charlotte employs.

The 49ers are averaging 8.2 points in their last four games. They are the second-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging 14.6 points per game on the season. Their offense has produced 11 TD's in seven games.

Charlotte's QB's have a 4-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That's why the 49ers run the ball more than 60 percent of the time even though they rank 87th in rushing. They play slow, too, ranking in the bottom-10 in tempo.

Florida Atlantic's defense is nothing special. But neither have been the other defenses the 49ers have struggled against.

The 49ers are better on defense. Florida Atlantic is on its second QB after losing Casey Thompson to injury. Daniel Richardson has thrown more interceptions than TD passes. The Owls rank 103rd in rushing yards and 95th in total yards.

If you discount a 56-point explosion against South Florida and its bottom-10 defense, the Owls would be averaging 14.2 points in their last five games.

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are up to their old dominant ways. The Rams' wide receiving corps is at peak efficiency right now with the emergence of rookie Puka Nacua and vast improvement shown by Tutu Atwell.

Despite the presence of T.J. Watt, the Steelers' defense is down from previous seasons. They rank 30th in defensive total yards.

Kyren Williams is out for the Rams. That's going to cripple their ground attack. But I see Stafford passing more because of that. Sean McVay probably will decide on the best pass blocking running back to replace Williams.

The Steelers should come out throwing, too, following their bye. Kenny Pickett is close, or at, 100 percent. He gets back tight end security blanket and prime red zone target tight end Pat Friermuth and probably Diontae Johnson, too. That would give Pickett three strong receiving targets factoring in talented George Pickens.

I don't find the Rams defense very good. It's Aaron Donald and 10 other bodies.

Take the Lions out of their dome. Put them on a grass field in windy conditions against an elite defense and they are not going to put up fancy numbers.

That's the situation here with Detroit traveling to Baltimore to face a Ravens defense that gives up 15.2 points per game and ranks No. 2 in the NFL in defensive total yards and pass defense.

The Ravens have held their last three opponents to an average of 12 points a game.

Jared Goff has a history of playing much worse in outdoor settings especially when weather is a factor. The forecast is for strong wind in the 15-20 mph range. Goff won't have his top running back either with David Montgomery out. The Lions hope to get Jahmyr Gibbs back, but he's been a disappointment and is not a heavy duty back like Montgomery.

The Lions' defense has improved so much that it can be trusted to hold up their end.

Detroit has the No. 1 run defense in the league. The Lions rank seventh in defensive total yards and ninth in scoring defense giving up 18.8 points a game. The Ravens are without their best running back, J.K. Dobbins, and their passing attack has been hurt by repeated dropped passes from their mediocre wide receiving group.

Dennis Allen isn't a very good head coach. But he's an elite defensive coach. The Saints have turned into a dead nuts Under team with Allen.

The Under has cashed in 14 of the Saints' last 15 games, including all five games this season. The Saints have played 11 consecutive games where the combined score was below 40 points.

What clinches this Under play, though, is how improved the Texans' defense is under their new coach, defensive-minded DeMeco Ryans. Houston has held its last three opponents to an average of 14.6 points. New Orleans had managed only four offensive TD's during its first four games until blasting the punchless Patriots, 34-0, at home last week.

Derek Carr is mediocre. The Saints should have known this before signing him. He doesn't elevate his surrounding talent.

The Texans are going against a top-five defense shorthanded as usual with multiple injuries in their offensive line and the possibility of being down wide receivers, Robert Woods and Tank Dell, their second-biggest threat. Houston hasn't been able to run the ball ranking 27th in rushing. That inability could really hurt them against this caliber of defense.

Lots of dropped passes and six lost fumbles have skewed the Ravens' offensive numbers. But Baltimore remains aggressive in its new passing-oriented offense. Lamar Jackson is comfortable and likes this new aggressive approach. He's completing a career-best 69.9 percent of his throws despite Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman dropping way too many balls. Those two are too good to keep doing that.

So I envision a strong offensive performance from Jackson and the Ravens against a Tennessee defense that ranks 23rd in pass defense and was just gashed for 193 yards rushing by the Colts last Sunday. The Titans have just three takeaways, too, which ranks 30th. 

On the flip side, I see the Titans scoring their share of points. Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins remain productive. Tennessee's offensive line has been getting better.

The Ravens' defense has good numbers. But I'm not sold on them, especially outside of Baltimore where they are less intimidating. 

Baltimore has been extremely lucky in the offenses they have drawn - C.J. Stroud making his NFL debut on the road behind a makeshift offensive line opening week, a one-legged Joe Burrow in Week 2, backup Gardner Minshew in Week 3, overmatched rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson with no Nick Chubb in Week 4 and the poorly designed Steelers offense with a banged-up Kenny Pickett last week. 

Kansas State has a top-25 offense in yards and scoring, averaging 35.8 points. Texas Tech averages 34.2 points and has a stud running back, Tahj Brooks. He's the fifth-leading rusher in the nation.

But what makes going Over this total enticing are the weak pass defenses. Kansas State ranks 107th in pass defense. The Wildcats have a cluster injury problem in their secondary, too.

Texas Tech QB Behren Morton is getting better each week since replacing injured Tyler Shough. He had his highest ranked game this past week.

The Red Raiders rank 95th in pass defense. Kansas State senior QB Will Howard, well praised before the season, is due to perform better. This is his opportunity.

Tulane and Memphis certainly are capable of big-scoring games. But I don't see it happening in this matchup.

The Green Wave's Michael Pratt is one of the better QB's in the country. But Tulane has been plagued by turnovers and poor red zone production. Memphis has one of the better defenses in the American Athletic Conference.

So does Tulane. The Green Wave have held their past three opponents to an average of 11 points. One of these foes was Trent Dilfer's UAB, which just scored 56 points against South Florida last Saturday.

The Green Wave rank 10th in run defense, which is bad news for Memphis running back Blake Watson. The Tigers do lead the AAC in time of possession. So I believe they will stay committed to a ground attack in order to keep the ball away from Pratt. Plus Memphis QB Seth Henigan has been hurt by interceptions. He's been picked off five times on 175 throws.

I get that the Titans are considered an Under team. But the Colts rank 29th in total defense and struggle against Derrick Henry, who has topped 100 yards rushing against Indy in six of the past seven meetings. The lone time he didn't reach that figure was when he suffered a broken foot.

Tennessee is averaging 27.8 points in its last seven games against Indianapolis. The Colts' defense carries a high fatigue rating having been involved in overtime games the last two weeks. Indy's defense was on the field for more than 32 minutes against Baltimore chasing Lamar Jackson and for nearly 40 minutes against the Rams this past Sunday. The bruising Henry is about the last running back the Colts want to face.

The Titans' offensive line could improve immensely with the return of tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere from suspension and if guard Peter Skoronski can play after being out with illness. Those are their two best offensive linemen.

Again, the bar is not set high going against the Colts' defense. It's an added plus playing on a fast track inside Indy's dome stadium.

Early reports on Shane Steichen are very positive. He's an aggressive, offensive guru who has helped accelerate the progress of rookie QB Anthony Richardson. The Colts showed no quit last week rallying from 23 points down in the second half against the Rams to force overtime. Richardson's effective dual threat talents can only be helped by the expected return of star running back Jonathan Taylor.

The Titans rank 23rd in pass defense. They've managed just three takeaways.

South Florida's Byrun Brown is one of the nation's more underrated dual threat quarterbacks. The Bulls are really starting to click under new coach Alex Golesh with Brown operating the offense at the fifth-fastest pace in the country.

The Bulls scored 42 points against Rice and 44 versus Navy in their last two games. UAB plays no defense under its new coach, former NFL QB Trent Dilfer. The Blazers are giving up an average of 43.5 points in their last four games. They rank 120th in total defense. This is a defense worse than what South Florida has encountered the past two weeks when it averaged 43 points.

Dilfer, though, has made the Blazers a downfield passing threat. The Blazers have the nation's No. 22 passing offense. Pass defense is South Florida's weakness. The Bulls rank 122nd in pass defense. They have only three takeaways.

Like South Florida, UAB plays at an extremely fast tempo. So don't be deterred going Over such a high total.

The Bears showed signs of finding their offensive identity this past Sunday in a 31-28 home loss to the Broncos. But their defense remains horrible. It's a prime reason why the Over has cashed in all four of Chicago's games this season.

Chicago had the worst defense last season and there hasn't been any improvement. The Bears are giving up 34.3 points, rank 29th in pass defense and have only two sacks.

Washington's defense has been disappointing. The Commanders are surrendering 30 points a game.

Both teams have mobile, young QB's backed by good wide receivers.

Justin Fields threw for a career-best 335 yards and four TD's against Denver. He has D.J. Moore, a ''B'' level wide receiver, to target along with emerging tight end Cole Kmet.

Sam Howell has his own ''B'' level wideout, Terry McLaurin, along with reliable Jahan Dotson to go against a banged-up Chicago secondary. The Bears have given up 25 or more points in each of their last 14 games.

The Commanders also have one of the more respected offensive coordinators, Eric Bieniemy.

This is a low total given how explosive the Cowboys can be with Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb.

The key is how many points can New England come in with? Don't be surprised if the Patriots score far more than you think.

The Patriots have played two of their three games in bad weather. They produced 382 yards of offense against a strong Eagles defense. New England has missed field goals and had costly turnovers inside Miami territory in its game against the Dolphins.

New England has played against the Eagles and Jets already, two of the better defenses in the league. Dallas' defense took a massive hit with its star cornerback Trevon Diggs suffering a season-ending knee injury during practice last week.

The Patriots' offensive line is improved with key players back. Ezekiel Elliott showed he still has some juice rushing for 80 yards against the Jets last week, averaging 5.0 yards a carry.

The Cowboys surrendered 28 points and 400 yards to the Cardinals this past week. Joshua Dobbs threw for 182 yards on just 21 attempts. James Connor rushed for 98 yards while averaging 7.0 yards a carry. Mac Jones is better than Dobbs and Rhamondre Stevenson is superior to Connor.

These teams have an Over history, too. They met two seasons ago and Dallas won, 35-29.

While I don't expect 64 points to be scored again, it's not a daunting task for these teams to go Over this number.

Yes, Jim Schwartz has made a difference as the Browns' new defensive coordinator. Cleveland's defense has improved. But I'm not buying its dominant numbers of giving up just 10.7 points a game and 163.7 yards, both of which are the best in the NFL.

Consider just who the Browns have played. They met the Bengals and a rusty Joe Burrow opening week. They then faced a Steelers offense going through growing pains with second-year QB Kenny Pickett and maybe the league's worst offensive coordinator, Matt Canada. After that it was the impotent Titans, who have the worst offensive line in the NFL coupled with over-the-hill skill position players.

Now the Browns draw Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has looked good running again. The Ravens' offensive line is healthy again for the first time in two weeks with left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum back practicing. Gus Edwards also is expected to play, giving Baltimore a legitimate power runner. Jackson has had three games to learn the Ravens' new emphasis on downfield passing. He has the best receivers he's ever had.

Deshaun Watson is off his finest game since joining the Browns, completing 81.8 percent of his passes for 289 yards and two TD's against the Titans last week. He should have had a third TD throw, but the referee made a mistake blowing his whistle thinking Amari Cooper had stepped out of bounds after a catch when Cooper had not. Like Jackson, Watson has the best receivers he's ever had in his career.

The totals bar is set low here. It's not asking too much for each of these teams to produce 20 points.

I'm expecting a stronger defensive battle here than the oddsmaker perceives.

First-year Purdue coach Ryan Walters was the defensive coordinator at Illinois before getting the Boilermakers job. He knows the Illini well. Illinois is averaging just 22.3 points, which ranks 99th.

I was expecting more from Purdue QB Hudson Card, a transfer from Texas. The Boilermakers' offense has yet to fully click.

Another key to making an Under work here is misleading defensive statistics. The numbers are skewed because both teams have faced three strong offenses, especially Illinois. The Illini have gone against Toledo, Kansas and Penn State.

Purdue has faced Fresno State, Syracuse and Wisconsin.

I'm getting involved in this total now that the marketplace has shaved off a couple of points. We have two really bad defensive teams here.

Virginia is the worst defensive team in the ACC. The Cavaliers rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 37.8 points a game and are 113th in defensive total yards.

Eagles QB Thomas Castellanos is in line for a big performance. He's passed for 909 yards and eight TD's while also leading the Eagles in rushing with 280 yards. Helping the Over is BC playing at a top-15 tempo.

Virginia should put up its share of points no matter who the quarterback is, either strong-armed gunslinger Anthony Colandrea or Tony Muskett, who started the first game but suffered a shoulder injury. The Cavaliers have one of the better receivers in the conference in Malik Washington. He's had three straight 100-yard receiving games.

Florida coach Billy Napier did a wise thing. He brought in defensive guru Austin Armstrong from Southern Mississippi. The Gators are giving up just 13.5 points a game with Armstrong as their defensive coordinator.

I don't like Kentucky's skill position talent as much as last season. The Wildcats could get exposed offensively here having played weak opponents Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt. The Gators should be able to get numerous sacks on Devin Leary, who has been picked off five times.

Kentucky does have a solid defense, though, ranking in the top 20 in total defense and 10th in run defense. I'm not a fan of Florida QB Graham Mertz, who was a huge disappointment at Wisconsin before transferring to Florida.

Both teams play at a very slow tempo ranking in the bottom-18 in pace.

It's not just that both defenses have improved as to why I like the Under.

Check out the injury situation. I expect Aaron Jones and Christian Watson to play for Green Bay. Jones is a major upgrade on plodding A.J. Dillon, who is an Under bettor's dream every time he carries the ball for his two yards up the middle. But don't overlook offensive line injuries. As many as five starting offensive linemen could be missing.

The Packers definitely won't have their two best offensive lineman as left tackle David Bakhitari and left guard Elgton Jenkins are out. The Lions won't have right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai. Detroit also could be minus their other starting guard, Jonah Jackson, and left tackle Taylor Decker. Both Jackson and Decker are questionable.

There are quarterback issues, too. Jared Goff isn't mobile and has a history of not playing as well outdoors on grass as he does inside a dome. Jordan Love has accuracy issues and is averaging just 6.8 yards a completion.

Rashuan Gary is back for Green Bay. He had three sacks against the Saints last Sunday. Gary ranked tied for No. 2 in pressure percentage through the first eight games last season. But he suffered a season-ending knee injury in his ninth game and the Packers lost their pass rush without him.

The Lions have a stud defensive lineman, too, in Aidan Hutchinson. Gary and Hutchinson aren't at the Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Nick Bosa top passing rushing level. But they arguably could be in the second tier of pass rushers.

The Lions held the Falcons to 44 yards rushing on 20 carries last Sunday. Atlanta entered that matchup ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing at 170.5 yards per game. They had rushed for 100 yards in 18 of their previous 19 games. Detroit defensive back Brian Branch came out of that game as a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year player.

Note, too, this is a division matchup on a short week. These teams know each other well and there isn't time for them to put in new wrinkles.

This is a low total in today's NFL. I understand why the oddsmaker made it. The Panthers have shown nothing on offense. Seattle is missing its starting offensive tackles.

However, there is more than meets the eye here as to why this total should be higher.

Bryce Young hasn't moved the Carolina offense. But the rookie isn't going to play. Veteran Andy Dalton is. Look, I'm not a big Dalton fan. Never have been even when it was with the Bengals and was a decent starting QB. But Dalton is the right QB for the Panthers given Carolina's offensive limitations.

Dalton is a veteran. He'll take what the defense gives him and Seattle's defense is missing cornerbacks Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant. Free safety Quandre Diggs isn't likely to play either because of a hamstring injury. Dalton can take advantage of this and provide more stability than the work-in-progress Young could. Dalton has veteran pass-catchers Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark and tight end Hayden Hurst along with promising rookie Jonathan Mingo. The Panthers will be able to move the sticks.

The Seahawks got around their cluster injury problem at offensive tackle by having Geno Smith throw short. Seattle put up 37 points on the Lions on the road last week despite not having its starting offensive tackles. It's not like left tackle Charles Cross and right tackle Abe Lucas were All-Pro-caliber either.

Smith has one of the better wide receiver trios in the NFL with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njiba. Kenneth Walker is an above average running back.

The Panthers are missing two key defensive players with their No. 1 cornerback, Jaycee Horn, out with a hamstring injury and steady, veteran linebacker Shaq Thompson out with a leg/ankle injury.

Detroit's Ford Field indoor dome is the football equivalent of Colorado's Coors Field when it comes to high scoring.

I have to seriously look Over when there's a Lions home game and the total is less than a key 47. The Over has cashed in eight of the Lions' last 11 home games.

I'm not sold on Detroit's so-called defensive improvement, nor its run defense. The Lions faced mediocre rushing teams Kansas City and Seattle in their first two games. Now they get the Falcons, a top-three rushing team with the second-best all-around running back in the NFL, Bijan Robinson. Yes, Robinson already has established himself as that and he could soon overtake Christian McCaffrey as the best.

The Lions may choose to load the box to key on the Falcons' ground attack. That would be risky, though, even against Desmond Ridder because Detroit has a clustery injury problem in its secondary. Out are safeties Kerby Joseph, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley. Gardner-Johnson is an underrated player. The Lions' defense isn't nearly adequate enough to withstand multiple injuries.

Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. He's averaged more than two TD's per game at home. David Montgomery isn't likely to play for Detroit. That's not necessarily a bad thing for the Over. Montgomery is a North-South runner who eats clock with his inside running. Minus Montgomery the Lions could make exciting rookie Jahmyr Gibbs their featured back. Gibbs has been underutilized at this early stage of the season.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best wide receiver in college football. Sam Hartman is in the Heisman Trophy discussion especially if Notre Dame wins this game. Early marketplace activity has been on the Over knowing these two skill position superstars are playing.

I see it differently.

I look at how strong these two defenses are and find this total to be too high. Ohio State is giving up an average of 6.6 points in its three games. The Buckeyes just held Western Kentucky's Austin Reed to 207 passing yards and one TD. Reed is the FBS active career leader in passing yards. Reed isn't Hartman, but he's still darn good.

Notre Dame ranks ninth in the country in fewest points allowed. Only 15 teams give up fewer yards per game than Notre Dame.

I have questions about Ohio State's offense at this stage of the season. The Buckeyes' offensive line hasn't looked that good. Neither has their ground attack. QB Kyle McCord is unproven against this caliber of opponent. If McCord was that good, he would have been named the starting QB going into the season rather than three games into the year.

Duke showed how strong it is defensively holding Clemson to seven points. Connecticut doesn't have the weapons to seriously challenge the Blue Devils defense. The Huskies, who are on their second quarterback, average only 15 points and 314 yards. Duke has the No. 5 run defense in the country. Connecticut allowed nine tackles for losses during their 24-17 loss to FIU last week.

The Blue Devils are more of a grind-out team rather than explosive. This is their first road game. They have Notre Dame on deck. So the Blue Devils aren't likely to show this weak opponent any wrinkles in their playbook saving any trick plays for Notre Dame.

Duke is going to be ground-oriented and doing it at a slow pace.

Weather could factor, too, in limiting the score. Rain and heavy winds are in the forecast.

At first glance this total may look right given how well Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke is playing and the threat Temple poses through the air thanks to E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner.

But look at the weather forecast. It's grim to say the least: 90 percent chance of rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-30 mph range.

The 20th-ranked Hurricanes aren't thrilled to be traveling to Philadelphia for their first road game. Miami isn't going to show much against this lowly opponent. The Hurricanes play slow - only six teams go at a slower tempo - and will just want to get this game to finish fast. Temple has been good against the pass ranking 23rd in pass defense.

Miami ranks in the top-20 in fewest yards allowed per game. Temple only averages 24 points a game and that's going against weak competition in Akron, Rutgers and FCS Norfolk State. Warner is off to a slow start and the Owls rank 87th in rushing.

Wisconsin is more balanced on offense, but weaker on defense. Purdue is weak defensively. So look for a higher total than what the oddsmaker has projected.

The Boilermakers are surrendering 30.3 points a game and rank 108th in total defense.

SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai is Wisconsin's best QB since Russell Wilson. One thing that hasn't changed about the Badgers is having a star running back. That's Braelon Allen. But he's not even the Badgers' leading rusher. Chez Mellusi is. He and Allen are averaging a combined 174 yards rushing a game. They each have four TD's.

Purdue hasn't faced this good of an offense having played Fresno State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse.

The Boilermakers aren't going to get many stops. But the Badgers are going to encounter their own defense struggles trying to contain QB Hudson Card as their secondary is way down from past seasons. Wisconsin ranks 115th in pass defense.

Georgia Southern QB Davis Brin threw for 383 yards against Wisconsin last week. Card is better than Brin.

Both teams play at a faster than average tempo, too.

These two teams played in 2021. Seattle won, 51-29. The two teams played again last year this time in Detroit. Seattle won, 48-45.

Now look at how low the total is for this year's matchup.

I find it to be an overreaction to the Seahawks' dismal performance in their 30-13 home loss to the Rams this past Sunday. Not only were the Seahawks shut out in the second half, but they lost both of their starting offensive tackles to injuries.

I'm expecting a lot of points to be scored here just like in the previous two meetings. The conditions are perfect being on a fast track inside a dome.

Geno Smith played well last year. One bad game doesn't alter that. He has three dangerous wideouts and a potential star at running back, Kenneth Walker. The Lions may be improved defensively, but not by that much. They gave up the most yards in the NFL last season, 392.4, and ranked 26th in scoring defense.

As for Seattle's tackle situation, they lost Abraham Lucas but may get back Charles Cross. He's questionable with a toe injury. The Seahawks were very proactive about these injuries, signing Jason Peters. If nine-time Pro Bowl selection Peters has anything left at 41, the Seahawks will be fine.

The Lions averaged 33.1 points in their nine home games last season. Their offense could be even better this season with the addition of Jahmyr Gibbs. Jared Goff has the longest streak in the league of not throwing an interception with 359 passes of no interceptions.

Seattle could be minus star safety Jamal Adams. He missed opening week with a quad injury. Matthew Stafford took advantage of that to throw for 334 yards despite not having Cooper Kupp.

I'm expecting a quarterback shootout between Chevan Cordeiro, perhaps the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference, and Toledo stud DeQuan Finn. Both quarterbacks are mobile and have good receiving weapons particularly Finn, who has an excellent trio of Jerijuan Newton, CC Ezirim and Junior Vandeross.

San Jose State has played two Division I schools - Pac-12 foes USC and Oregon State. The Spartans couldn't stop either team on the ground or through the air. The result was giving up 56 points to USC and 42 to the Beavers.

Toledo just put up 71 points on Texas Southern in its last game. The Rockets' other game was a 30-28 road loss to Illinois.

The good news for the Patriots offense is they'll get better coaching with Bill O'Brien taking over as offensive coordinator from the clown show they had last season.

The bad news is New England's offense still appears very tepid. The offensive line already is banged-up, Mac Jones excites no one and Rhamondre Stevenson, the one above average Patriot skill position player, is questionable due to illness. Ezekiel Elliott was brought in, but he's nothing more than a plus for the Under with his high mileage and boring north/south running style.

The Eagles have the premier defensive line in the NFL. Philadelphia had 70 sacks last season. The next closest team, the Chiefs, had 55. I see the Eagles dominating the Patriots' offensive line.

Once again, the Patriots' strength is their defense. Bill Belichick is especially effective with extra time to prepare. The Patriots have held their last four Week 1 foes to an average of 12.7 points a game. It's not a fluke the Under has cashed in each of New England's past five openers.

Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has well below average skill position talent around him. Now he goes into his first NFL game - on the road at a tough venue - missing four projected offensive line starters. The Texans suffered multiple injuries to their offensive line in August. They could be down to their third-string center while minus their second and third-best offensive linemen.

Making it worse for Stroud is facing an aggressive, veteran well-coached Ravens defense on the road. He certainly is not set up for success.

The Ravens are emphasizing passing for the first time with Lamar Jackson, learning a different offense and with a new offensive coordinator. So their timing could be off in this first game.

Houston's strength is its defense. The Texans should be competitive defensively under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, formerly a highly productive linebacker.

Never mind the quarterbacks. It's the strong rushing attacks, California's weak defense and fast pace from both teams that will get this game to go Over.

Auburn rushed for 289 yards and six TD's in a 59-14 win against UMass last week. Sure UMass isn't very good. But the Tigers looked great running the ball behind an upgraded offensive line. Cal has a weak defensive line, not good at stopping the run nor pressuring the quarterback.

The Golden Bears rushed for 357 and six TD's in their 58-21 opening week road victory against North Texas. That total went Over by 26 points. Jaydn Ott gives Cal one of the best running backs on the West Coast.

Cal's high-scoring wasn't a fluke. The Bears brought in Jake Spavital to be their new offensive coordinator. His style is to play fast. Auburn gave up five yards per rush attempt to UMASS, which was its average last season. So Cal and Ott should find success on the ground again.

The Tigers play up-tempo, too, under their first-year head coach Hugh Freeze, who has an outstanding reputation for building high-octane offenses.

Neither team was sharp in their openers last week.

Arizona State managed only three points during the second half in its 24-21 win against FCS foe Southern Utah. The Sun Devils were 34 1/2-point favorites.

The Sun Devils are going with a true freshman at quarterback, Jaden Rashada. His task and learning curve are going to be far more difficult this week. ASU's offensive line is a weakness after losing key linemen in the transfer portal and a projected starter going down with an injury. Oklahoma State has a big and physical defensive front seven. The Cowboys had five sacks in their opener.

The Cowboys were not impressive, either, in their 27-13 win against Central Arkansas last week. Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy is using a three-player committee at quarterback. That's not a good sign.

The teams met at Oklahoma City last year and the Cowboys won, 34-17. Arizona State is better on defense this season.

I'm not impressed with either team's quarterback situation. I do respect both team's defenses, though. Tempo is important, too. Each team plays slow. So I find this total too high.

Middle Tennessee State has four starters back on a defense that ranked fourth-best in the red zone. Missouri still hasn't fully settled on a quarterback between Brady Cook and Sam Horn. They have one of the weakest quarterback situations in the SEC.

Missouri has a strong defensive front. I don't see the Blue Raiders, which lost a lot of offense from last year, being able to run successfully on the Tigers, nor is QB Nicholas Vattiato going to hurt them through the air.

The Blue Raiders were held to just seven points and 3.5 yards per play by Alabama in their opener. Now they face another tough SEC defense.

They don't get the publicity of quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, but Oregon State's D.J. Uiagalelei and San Jose State's Chevan Cordeiro are two of the better QB's in the country.

Cordeiro could be the best QB in the Mountain West. Uiagalelei couldn't live up to his potential at Clemson as the replacement for Trevor Lawrence, but figures to get coached up at Oregon State under head coach Jonathan Smith and offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren.

Uiagalelei can rely upon an excellent offensive line and two good running backs, Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick. San Jose State is down on defense from last season. The Spartans surrendered 56 points to USC last week.

San Jose State covered against the Trojans, though, by scoring 28 points. The Spartans averaged six yards per play. Cordeiro threw for three TD's. Just as important, the Spartans played at a fast pace.

Oregon State, like San Jose State, looks to be down defensively from last year.

The marketplace has reacted to the new starting quarterbacks at California and North Texas by betting this total down. The Over/Under is low enough where there's value on the Over now.

What's being overlooked here is tempo. It's going to be quicker than perceived with Jake Spavital brought in by Cal coach Justin Wilcox to be the offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. Spavital has a well-earned reputation of developing QB's and speeding up a team's attack. This is good news for Sam Jackson V, a redshirt sophomore and TCU transfer who will be under center for the Golden Bears. He faces a North Texas defense that gave up 31.5 points a game and ranked 124th in total defense last season.

North Texas is going with dual threat Stone Earle as its starting QB. Reports out of spring camp was Earle had improved his passing accuracy. The Mean Green should play faster, too, with Eric Morris as their new head coach. Cal ranked 123rd in pass defense last year.

Wisconsin is going to have more of a balanced attack with new coach Luke Fickell bringing former North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo on board. But the Badgers certainly are not going to lose their identity of being run-oriented with a strong defensive unit.

There's no reason for the Badgers to tip anything off about their offense against this non-conference opponent being nearly a 30-point favorite. 
The Badgers allowed 20.2 points and 303.5 yards per game, 27th-best in the nation, last season. Fickell is a defensive-minded coach. The Badgers return eight defensive starters. 

So I don't see Buffalo producing many points with their mediocre offense. But can the Bulls slow down Wisconsin? 

I believe they can. Senior linebacker Shaun Dolac led the nation with 97 solo tackles last season while safety Marcus Fuqua tied for the most interceptions with seven. 

I'm not expecting 76 points to be scored like there were in Florida International's, 42-34 double overtime, home victory against Louisiana Tech last year.

But I do expect these teams to combine for more than 60 points.

Part of this is believing Florida International QB Grayson James has improved. James goes against a Louisiana Tech defense that was one of the worst in the country in 2022 ranking 128th in scoring defense and 127th in total defense. James should have time to pass and can rely on plenty of yards on the ground. The Bulldogs couldn't stop the run - ranking 130th - and didn't generate a pass rush.

Louisiana Tech certainly isn't favored because of its defense. The Bulldogs have a fast-tempo, high-powered offense operated by Boise State transfer QB Hank Bachmeier. He was hurt last year, but was very good two seasons ago.

The Bulldogs averaged 29 points last season in Sonny Cumbie's first season as head coach. They should improve on that number in Year 2 of Cumbie's ''Air Raid'' offense, especially going against such a weak defense here at home.

Patrick Mahomes practiced in full on Wednesday. If Mahomes is anywhere close to 100 percent after injuring his ankle last week, this total is too low.

Even with both team's defenses being underrated, the Bengals and Chiefs have too much offense for a total this low. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. Burrow is right near him on that short list with Josh Allen.

The Chiefs led the NFL in scoring at more than 29 points a game and also were No. 1 in total yards and passing yards. They have scored at 27 points in five of their last six games.

Burrow has even better weapons than Mahomes has. The Bengals have gone against five strong defenses during their last five games - Bills, Ravens twice, Patriots and Buccaneers. During this span, Cincinnati averaged 26.8 points.

Weather shouldn't be a problem with the forecast being for sunny skies, temperatures in the upper 20's and wind in the 10-12 mph range.

Not enough credit is being given to these defenses by how high this total is. San Francisco is the No. 1 defensive team in the NFL ranking first in scoring defense and total defense while placing second in run defense and takeaways. The Eagles easily led the NFL with 70 sacks.

Brock Purdy has been a huge success story surrounded by elite weapons and receiving excellent play-calling from Kyle Shanahan. But Purdy only has started two road games in the NFL and has never faced this level of pass rushers. The Eagles sacked Daniel Jones five times last week. Jones is far more mobile than Purdy.

I'm anticipating the 49ers to go run-heavy, which keeps the clock moving, and Shanahan being extremely careful and conservative with his play-calling. He knows the 49ers will be in trouble if they have to play from behind. San Francisco already plays at the slowest pace of any NFL team.

Jalen Hurts emerged as a superstar this season. But is his passing shoulder 100 percent healthy? Hurts and the Eagles haven't faced a defense this strong all season.

Weather-wise there's a slight chance of a rain shower with the wind blowing at 10-15 mph.

I trust the Cowboys' offensive line to do their job against the 49ers. The buy sign also is back on for Dak Prescott, who is off his best game of the season. Prescott threw for 305 yards against a good Buccaneers defense last week, while accounting for five touchdowns.

Brock Prudy - Mr. Relevant - has proven himself with multiple TD passes in each of seven starts. He has a 16-to-3 TD-to-interception ratio in his starts. The 49ers have scored 33 or more points in six of their last seven games with Purdy behind center.

The Cowboys' defense has sprung leaks. During four of the last five regular-season games they surrendered 23 points to the Texans, 40 points to the Jaguars, 34 to the Eagles, who were quarterbacked by backup Gardner Minshew, and 26 to the Commanders.

The Vikings can be explosive because of Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook and they are at home. Brian Daboll is no dummy. He knows this. His Giants have the least postseason experience of any of the playoff teams.

So it's not hard to figure that Daboll is going conservative here. That means lots of running and short passes to Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones not taking chances.

The Giants are better on defense because they are healthier. They've held their last four opponents to 17.7 points. New York is familiar with Minnesota. The teams just met three weeks ago. It took a 61-yard field goal at the gun by Greg Joseph - an inconsistent kicker - for the Vikings to prevail, 27-24, in that home game.

New York didn't have its best safety, Xavier McKinney, nor its top cornerback, Adoree' Jackson, in that game. Both are expected to play here. The Vikings could be down two offensive line starters with center Garrett Bradbury and right tackle Brian O'Neill both injured. Kirk Cousins has a history of not stepping up in big games. Rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux has shown signs lately of being an elite pass rusher.

The Vikings do not have good defensive numbers. However, they have a number of excellent defenders - Eric Kendricks, Danielle Hunter, Harrison Smith and Za'Darius Smith. Minnesota is good at takeaways ranking 12th in the league.

Two top-10 offenses facing two below average defenses. Justin Herbert versus Trevor Lawrence. All of this had me strongly leaning to the Over. But what clinched the Over is finding out who is going to be refereeing this game. It's the Shawn Smith crew.

This is significant. This umpiring crew has ranked in the top-five for calling the most defensive penalties each of the last four seasons. They also called the second-fewest offensive holding penalties this season.

Herbert should come up big against the Jaguars, who rank 28th in pass defense and 24th in defensive total yards.

Lawrence should perform well, too, operating against a Chargers defense that ranked 22nd in scoring defense and 20th in total defense. The Jaguars put up 38 points on the Chargers in Week 3 with Lawrence throwing for 262 yards and three touchdowns.

There weren't more than 34 points scored in either of the Seahawks-49ers regular season games this season. I don't see that pattern changing here.

San Francisco's No. 1 ranked defense, the weather and a run-oriented conservative approach by the 49ers behind rookie QB Brock Purdy are all key factors for the Under.

Discounting a 37-34 game against the Raiders, the 49ers have held their past nine opponents to an average of 12.2 points. San Francisco surrendered the fewest yards and points in the NFL.

There is a 90 percent chance of rain, potentially heavy, with wind in the 15-20 mph range. This is on a grass field so the footing is going to be slow.

Expect the 49ers to run a lot especially under these circumstances.

The Seahawks have regressed offensively, but gotten better defensively. Seattle is averaging 16.2 points in its last four games, while giving up an average of 16.7 points during this span.

Geno Smith has never been effective against elite defenses. He had just one touchdown pass in two games against San Francisco, averaging 217.5 yards passing. The 49ers tied for the lead in interceptions and had the second-most takeaways.

I see a shootout coming here. It's taken nearly the entire season, but the Packers finally have their offensive identity. Green Bay has one of the best running back tandems with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon and Aaron Rodgers has gotten in sync with his wide receivers. The bar is set low here as the Lions have a bottom-four defense. 

The Packers also finally have a special teams threat thanks to Keisean Nixon, who leads the NFL in kickoff return yardage and kickoff return average. 

The Lions have a top-five offense. They've scored at least 25 points in six of their last eight games. The Packers' defense has been thriving not because they are dominant, but because of forcing 12 turnovers during their last four games. Detroit, though, commits the fewest turnovers in the NFL. Jared Goff, who quietly has put together a very good season with 4,214 passing yards and 29 TD passes, hasn't been picked off in his last eight games. 

Weather shouldn't be a problem with the forecast being clear with the temperature around 20 and the wind at 5-to-10 mph.  

The total is high in this one - but not high enough.

Tulane was the 21st-highest scoring team in the country averaging 35.2 points a game. That average goes up to 38.8 during its last seven games. USC has trouble against mobile quarterbacks and Tulane's Michael Pratt is a dual threat.

Pratt accounted for 35 touchdowns through the air and on the ground rushing for 395 yards and passing for 2,775 yards.

Lincoln Riley turned USC around. The Trojans did this on offense averaging 41.1 points per game, third-best in the country. If you discount their Pac-12 title game against Utah - the one team the Trojans had trouble against - the Trojans averaged 44.8 points during their last six games.

Caleb Williams may be the best QB in the nation. He threw for 4,075 yards, 37 TD's with just four interceptions while completing 66.1 percent of his throws. I don't see Tulane's defense stopping USC's offense, which can offset several opt-outs with its depth.

The Over has cashed in each of USC's last seven games.

This total is too low given that Trevor Lawrence is playing the best since he came into the NFL, Davis Mills is underrated when playing at home and how bad these defenses are.

Lawrence has accounted for 16 touchdowns with only one interception during his last seven games. The Texans rank 30th in defensive total yards and last in run defense. So Lawrence should get plenty of ground assistance from Travis Eitenne. 

Mills plays much better at home. He's accounted for 13 of his 16 passing and rushing TD's this season at NRG Stadium. 

The Jaguars rank 26th in total defense and 29th in pass defense. 

The Bears are giving up 32.6 points per game in their last eight games. It's obvious their defense is broken. The Lions average 32.1 points at home. Jared Goff has a 20-to-3 TD-to-interception ratio at Ford Field compared to 6-to-4 in away games. His passer rating is nearly 20 points higher at home.

Safe to say, the Lions are going to get their share of points here. The big question is can the Bears keep up? They certainly did in the first meeting losing, 31-30. 

Justin Fields is motivated to break the NFL's quarterback rushing record. He's 195 yards short. Fields ran for 147 yards and two TD's in the 31-30 loss. The Lions just gave up 320 yards on the ground to the Panthers last week. 

Detroit gives up the most yards and points per game in the NFL. They also rank 30th in pass defense. 

Georgia's defense has gotten a lot of credit and publicity during the past two seasons. But the Bulldogs' offense isn't too shabby either. They ranked seventh in total offense and 11th in scoring at 39.2 points a game. Stetson Bennett has improved as a passer. The Bulldogs were especially impressive in the red zone scoring 97 percent of the time during 71 trips inside the 20. It's alarming to see how many big plays Ohio State gave up to Michigan in its 45-23 loss during its last game.

That game went Over. No surprise as the Buckeyes have gone Over in nine of their last 10 games. Georgia didn't face too many really strong passing attacks. Ohio State is the best the Bulldogs have seen.

C.J. Stroud had the highest passer efficiency rating in the country. He may have the best wide receiver in the country, too, in Marvin Harrison Jr. The Buckeyes had the second-highest yards per play in the nation. The Bulldogs surrendered 30 points and 505 passing yards to LSU in their last game, the SEC title game.

I'm expecting a loose game between strong offenses that should result in this total going Over. 

Kansas State is thrilled to be in the Sugar Bowl. The Wildcats got their offense in full gear averaging 38.6 points during their last six games to win the Big 12 championship. They feature one of the top all-purpose backs in the nation in Deuce Vaughn. 

Alabama is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 40.8 points led by Heisman Trophy-winning QB Bryce Young. The Tide, though, are disappointed they didn't make the College Football Playoffs. Unlike Kansas State, they had a number of opt-outs. But Alabama has a deep roster. 

This is the Tide's chance to get those offensive players big-time experience, so I'm expecting them to play aggressive. That's been their style as seven of their last nine bowl games have gone Over. 

Both defenses are not getting enough respect here especially with each minus its starting quarterback. 

Clemson surrenders just 20.1 points a game. The Tigers ranked 10th in run defense. Georgia might be the best defensive team in the country. But Clemson was close to the Bulldogs giving up 4.97 yards per play compared to Georgia's 4.88. 

The Tigers get to face a Tennessee squad that has lost much of its feared passing attack. The Volunteers lost their stud QB Hendon Hooker to a season-ending injury two games ago. The Vols also will be without their top wide receiver, Jalin Hyatt, and third-best wideout, Cedric Tillman. Both opted out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Joe Milton replaces Hooker - and it's a monster drop-off. 

Tennessee gave up 27 points or fewer in nine games. The Vols held opponents to 23.5 points on the season while ranking 18th in run defense. 
Clemson won't have its starting QB, DJ Uiagalelei, either. He's entered the transfer portal. 

Because of using largely untested backup quarterbacks, both teams will emphasize the run more, which will eat clock. Each team has strong run defenses, too. 

This total has been bet up - too far up in my view.

Mississippi is a running team with a respectable defense that gives up 24.2 points a game. The Rebels enter this matchup having lost three in a row. They are averaging just 24.8 points in their last five games. 

Mississippi played in the Sugar Bowl last year and lost 21-7 to Baylor. It was the fifth straight bowl game the Rebels went Under the total. 

Texas Tech's season offensive numbers are skewed because of three overtime games. The Red Raiders are capable of playing stout defense. They held Iowa State and West Virginia to 10 points each. 

The Under has cashed in eight of the Red Raiders' last 11 non-conference games. 

San Diego State gives up just 20.2 points per game, which ranks 20th in the nation. The Aztecs only average 21.3 points a game and even that low total is skewed by scoring 38 points against Idaho State and 43 versus San Jose State. That inflated their season total.

The Aztecs scored 23 points or less in eight of their other nine games against FBS competition. The Under is 12-5-1 the last 18 times the Aztecs have met an above .500 foe.

Middle Tennessee State came on defensively holding three of its last five opponents to 21 points or less.

This NFL matchup is going to be like Army-Air Force - nearly all running.

Both teams are heavily ground-oriented with backup quarterbacks, who will be dealing with horrendous weather elements, including cold and heavy wind making it difficult to pass.

Baltimore has managed only two touchdowns in its last three games while missing Lamar Jackson. Tyler Huntley is a game manager. He doesn't throw downfield and he's not accurate. The Ravens rank 29th in the red zone so they'll likely be settling for field goals in what should be a very conservative game.

Falcons coach Arthur Smith doesn't want rookie Desmond Ridder, in just his second NFL start, to throw much either. I see Smith stubbornly sticking with the run despite the Ravens ranking No. 3 against the run.

Both teams play at a slow tempo, too.