Don't be fooled by Toledo playing in the high-scoring Mid-American Conference. Also don't be fooled by this game being played in South Florida.

Toledo easily is the best defensive team in the MAC. They rank 24th in defensive total yards in the country and just held Ohio to seven points in the MAC title game, which was 25 points below the Bobcats' season average.

Liberty hasn't been the same since it lost its coach, Huge Freeze, to Auburn. The Flames averaged just 22.4 points in their last four games.

Until that happened, Liberty was a strong defensive team. The Flames should regroup for this bowl game. They have a superstar defensive lineman in Durrell Johnson, who has eight sacks and 22 1/2 tackles for losses.

The weather is a plus, too, for the Under with an 80 percent chance of rain and wind in the 15-20 mph range.

Just two weeks ago, the teams played each other to a 20-20 tie. The Giants had scored their 20 points by early in the third quarter. The Commanders came back to get the tie with 1:45 left in regulation on a Taylor Heinicke TD pass.

Since then, the Giants have gotten more beat up on defense while the Commanders finally enjoyed their bye week.

Now, in the rematch, I see more points being scored.

Daniel Jones has a strong history against Washington. He plays better against the Commanders than any other team. Saquon Barkley gives New York the best skill position player. This is the Giants' season so they'll be pulling out everything to put up points.

Heinicke, emerging Brian Robinson and ace pass catcher Terry McLaurin should have productive games against a fading and battered Giants defense that has allowed 411 or more yards in each of their last three games.

The Giants have been missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson, safety Xavier McKinney and run-stuffing defensive lineman Leonard Williams. New York is now down to 26th in total defense and 29th in run defense.

The Titans can't stop the pass, are missing their best pass rusher, Denico Autry, and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. The Chargers can't stop the run and are missing key defensive backfield players. 

So this sets up as a higher scoring game than the oddsmaker anticipates. 

Derrick Henry entered this week ranked No. 2 in rushing. The Chargers are 28th in run defense and 28th in scoring defense. They are likely to be without star safety Derwin James and cornerback Bryce Callahan again this week. Henry should find success running, which in turn will aid Ryan Tannehill in the Titans' passing game. 

Mike Williams returned for the Chargers last week after missing two games with an ankle injury. That makes a huge difference in LA's passing attack. Williams is the Chargers' lone deep threat. He opens up the attack for Justin Herbert. 

Herbert is in line for a monster performance operating against a Titans secondary that ranks last in the NFL. 

The Chargers have been an elite kicking team this season unlike past years. LA kickers are 25-for-27 in field goals and 30-for-30 in extra points. 

Jared Goff in cold weather. Zach Wilson in any weather. That combination, along with a much-improved Lions defense and a tough Jets defense, puts me on the Under. 

Goff and the Lions offense isn't going to be high-powered against a Jets defense that ranks third in total defense and sixth in scoring defense especially in outdoor winter conditions. The forecast is for temperatures in the 30's with 15-to-29 mph winds. 

That's bad for a touch passer such as Goff, who has a poor record in cold elements. The Jets just held the Bills to 232 total yards last week. 

Wilson is another finesse passer. He lacks accuracy. He's been a bottom tier quarterback since joining the NFL last year. The Lions' defense has come on holding their last two opponents - Vikings and Jaguars - to a combined 37 points. 

The Texans don't have too many good players and they will be missing some of those players. Among those out for Houston are cornerback Derek Stingley, wide receivers Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and its best skill position player, running back Dameon Pierce. This leaves Davis Mills, a garbage quarterback, with nothing but garbage as weapons.

The Chiefs can name their score. I predict they will name it in blowout fashion. Kansas City jumped in front of Denver, 27-0, last week before holding on for a 34-28 win. The Texans nearly upset the Cowboys last Sunday before losing in the final minute, 27-23. That might have been the Texans' Super Bowl.

So I don't see the Chiefs taking the Texans lightly here. That's all that matters because the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC, if not all of football, while the Texans are the worst.

Doubt must be cast on Tua Tagovailoa following two consecutive poor road performances these last two weeks against the 49ers and Chargers. Miami averaged just 260 total yards and 17 points in those two games. The Chargers' defense is 28th in scoring defense and was without several important defensive players.

I don't see the Dolphins bouncing back on the road against the Bills' defense, which gives up the second-fewest points and ranks in the top 10 in total defense.

Neither offense is going to be helped by the weather conditions with the forecast calling for cold, possible heavy snow and wind in the 15-20 mph range.

These elements take away the Dolphins' most dangerous offensive feature, which is the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa remains unproven in big road games and in cold weather. The Dolphins managed only 212 yards in the first meeting, played in sunny Florida. There were 40 points scored in that contest.

Now the weather has flipped and Miami's offense is at low tide for the first time since Tagovailoa returned from a concussion.

The Vikings rank 10th in scoring. Indy is 30th in takeaways with just 11. The Vikings are expected to get back injured starting offensive linemen left tackle Christian Darrisaw and center Garrett Bradbury. Minnesota averages 1.6 yards more rush when Darrisaw plays. The Colts just yielded 54 points and eight TD's in their last game. So I expect the Vikings to do their fair share of getting this total Over.

Same with the Colts.

Indy is off a bye and has a healthy Jonathan Taylor to give Matt Ryan ground support and thus make his play-action passing more effective.

The Vikings have yielded more than 400 yards in each of their last five games. During this span, the Vikings have permitted more than 30 points per game.

Daniel Jones doesn't make enough downfield passing plays. Saquon Barkley is averaging just 2.8 yards rushing in his last three games on 44 carries. The Eagles rank No. 1 in pass defense and No. 2 in total defense. Their run defense has gotten much better with Joseph Linval and Ndamkong Suh joining a now healthy Jordan Davis.

The Giants have a bend-but-don't-break defense that gives up the 12th fewest points at 21 per game. New York's pass rush has picked up with both Azeez Ojulari and Kayvon Thibodeaux healthy.

Both teams are run-oriented. The forecast is for light rain. This is the Giants' season. So I see a tight, ball-control conservative game plan.

This should be a loose and fun game between a pair of 4-7 teams.This matchup is inside a dome thus ensuring a fast track. Both head coaches are aggressive. All pluses for an Over.

Trevor Lawrence is finally living up to his immense hype. He's enjoying his best three-game NFL stretch completing 77 percent of his throws for six TD's and no interceptions during this span. The Jaguars just put up 28 points against a much better Ravens defense.

The Lions give up the most points in the NFL at 28.2. They've allowed 24 or more points in all but two of their games.

Detroit, though, is a top-eight scoring team. The Lions have scored at least 30 points in five of their 11 games. Jared Goff is a much better quarterback when playing in warm weather. He faces a Jaguars pass defense that ranks 25th.

Defending national champion Georgia had a defense for the ages last season. Their defense isn't too shabby this season either.

The Bulldogs give up the fewest points in the country at 11.3. No team has scored more than 22 points in a game against the Bulldogs. Georgia also ranks No. 1 against the run and fourth in total defense.

LSU's defense is very respectful. The Tigers rank 33rd in total defense and scoring defense.

The Tigers held seven of their opponents to 20 points or less.

LSU held Arkansas to 13 points, which is 17.7 points under its average. The Tigers gave up just 10 points to Alabama-Birmingham, which was 20.6 points under the Blazers' average. LSU held Mississippi to 20 points, which was 14.2 points below its average. Mississippi State could manage just 16 points versus the Tigers, which was 22 points under its average. Florida State scored 24 points against the Tigers. That was 12.2 points under the Seminoles' average. 

Jimmy Garoppolo is becoming dangerous. It's easy to see why when he has a good offensive line and skill position players Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk to surround him. The 49ers are averaging 30.3 points in their last three games.

The Saints have been without their best cornerback, Marhson Lattimore, and two best defensive linemen, Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport. New Orleans is surrendering an average of 28.7 points in its last seven games if you discount a freakish shutout of the Raiders.

I don't see the Saints stopping the 49ers. The Saints should be able to contribute their share of points, too. Andy Dalton is off his best game of the season completing 21 of 25 passes for 260 yards and three TD's against the Rams last week.

Justin Herbert is back on track and has most of his weapons back. Kyler Murray is ready to go after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. He has Deandre Hopkins and could have Marquise Brown. Also back for the Cardinals is James Conner, their best running back. Conner is a touchdown machine with 22 TD's in his last 23 games.

Neither defense is any good.

So this total is too low because it's not fully accounting for these factors.

The Chargers allow 25.8 points a game. That ranks 29th. They rank 30th in run defense and 25th in defensive total yards. The Cardinals' attack is far more dynamic with Murray instead of short-armed game manager Colt McCoy.

The Cardinals just surrendered four touchdowns to the 49ers. They are on a short week after playing in high altitude this past Monday in Mexico City. The Cardinals entered this week ranked tied for second-to-last in scoring defense allowing 26.9 points a game.

I wouldn't try to buck this total - even though it's low by today's NFL offensive-driven standards - if the quarterback matchup was going to be Trevor Siemian versus Zack Wilson. But it's not.

There's a chance Justin Fields plays and Wilson definitely won't start, replaced by Mike White, who threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Bengals in his first start last year.

Fields has accounted for 14 touchdowns in his last four games. The Bears are averaging 29.6 points during their past five games. The Bears' first-year offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has gotten more comfortable in directing a more aggressive Chicago offense. Even if Siemian gets the call, the Bears' passing attack has improved. Siemian is a veteran, who might be a more accurate passer than Fields.

The Jets' defense isn't expected to have defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. That would be a boost to David Montgomery.

The key here, though, is the Jets' offense should be energized with the quarterback switch away from the egregious Wilson. The Bears' defense has become dreadful after dealing away their best defender, linebacker Roquan Smith. Chicago has allowed 20 or more points in eight of its last 10 games. In their last four games, the Bears have permitted 27, 31, 35 and 49 points.

Iowa State has gone Under in its last seven Big 12 Conference games. It's easy to see why. The Cyclones have the top defense in the league, but the worst offense. 

The Cyclones aren't going bowling for the first time since 2016. So playing unbeaten fourth-ranked TCU is their bowl game. Look for Iowa State to play its usual tough defensive, field-position type of game especially being on the road. The Under is 21-8-1 in the Cyclones' last 30 road contests.

TCU already has its ticket punched for the Big 12 title game next week. The Horned Frogs don't want to show too much in this game so as not to tip their hand. They would be satisfied with a victory, not running up a huge score. 

The buy sign is on these two offenses.

Spencer Rattler finally lived up to his big reputation last week for South Carolina. The Oklahoma transfer passed for 438 yards and six touchdowns in the Gamecocks' 63-38 win against Tennessee.

The Over has cashed in 11 of South Carolina's last 14 road games.

Clemson's attack is in gear, too. The Tigers have produced a combined 71 points in their last two games crushing Miami and Louisville.

You can't go wrong taking the Under when Marshall is involved. The Thundering Herd has gone Under in nine of its 11 games. Marshall has a top-10 defense, a weak passing attack and runs the ball a lot. That's a winning Under combination.

Georgia State can't pass either. The Panthers rank 107th in passing. Marshall is hardly any better, rating 104th in passing. 

Marshall is holding foes to 15.5 points a game. Georgia State's defense isn't very good, but it is opportunistic coming up with 13 takeaways, which ranks 15th in the nation. 

The oddsmaker has opened this total too high. There haven't been more than 49 points scored in any of Marshall's past eight games. This one shouldn't be any different.

Note, too, that the early weather forecast is for a 50 percent chance of rain with 10-to-15 mph winds. 

It's taken only two years, but Robert Saleh has built a strong Jets defense. New York is giving up just 15.8 points per game during its last six games.

The Jets just held the powerful Bills to 17 points in their last game two weeks ago. They certainly are capable of holding the Patriots' pop-gun attack to 17 points or fewer, too.

Defenses should dominate this matchup. Both teams are coached by defensive gurus and have had two weeks to prepare. Each team has an inexperienced, game-manager for a quarterback.

The Jets sacked Mac Jones six times in the first meeting. They held New England to 3.8 yards a play and 288 total yards of offense. The Jets' defensive line holds a huge edge against the Patriots' mediocre-to-bad offensive line.

Bill Belichick has been dominating inexperienced quarterbacks such as Zach Wilson for a long time. The Patriots picked off Wilson three times in their victory two games ago. The Patriots feature the NFL's sack leader, Matt Judon. He has 11 1/2 sacks.

The weather could work against these offenses, too, with the forecast being for temperatures in the 30's with wind in the 15-17 mph range. That should ensure plenty of running plays.

A total of less than 41 in today's NFL, which is unfairly skewed toward offense and scoring, is a very low bar.

Both the Texans and Giants have excellent running backs and each defense has trouble stopping the run. The Texans have the worst run defense in the NFL by far yielding more than 180 yards a game on the ground. They have to deal with Saquon Barkley, who has regained his stature as a top-five running back and will have fresh legs following New York's bye last week.

If I could pick one player to have in fantasy football this week at running back it would be Barkley. The Giants also are getting healthier at wide receiver. If you discount the Texans holding the Jaguars to six points, Houston would be giving up an average of 28.2 points in their last five games.

The Texans should contribute to this total going Over riding Dameon Pierce, who is averaging 23.3 carries and 110 yards rushing during his last six games. The Giants are permitting 5.4 yards per carry, ranking 25th in run defense. There's the possibility the Texans get back Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins this week. They are the Texans' top two wide receivers.

No team has played more Unders this season than Marshall. The Thundering Herd have gone Under in eight of their nine games, including the last six.

Marshall gives up 15.6 points, ranks No. 3 in run defense and ninth in total defense. The Thundering Herd, though, has a limited passing attack ranking 110th. So they run the ball a lot, which eats clock.

Appalachian State also has a good defense ranking 27th in fewest yards allowed per game and are run-oriented on offense. The Under has cashed in four of the Mountaineers' last five games.

Houston scored 63 points against SMU last week - and still lost by 14. There's only one way to look at Houston games and it's certainly not Under. The Over has cashed in eight of the Cougars' nine games this season. 

The Cougars average 36.8 points and give up an average of 36.2 points. 

Temple isn't going to be able to slow down Clayton Tune and the rest of Houston's high-caliber attack. The Owls should be able to kick in their fair share of points. Their offense came alive in a 54-28 victory against South Florida last week. Edward Saydee rushed for 265 yards and QB E.J. Warner passed for 344 yards for Temple. 

It's not a fluke that Kentucky has gone Under in eight of its nine games this season. The Wildcats are run-oriented, go at the slowest pace of any team in the country and have a tremendous defense that ranks 11th in fewest yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense holding opponents to 19.6 points a game.

Vanderbilt quarterback AJ Swann is out with a lower body injury. He's the Commodores' best passing quarterback. Vanderbilt is averaging only 12.5 points during its past five games.

The Commodores do not have a good defense. However, their best feature is stopping the run. Kentucky figures to stay on the ground a lot especially given the projected weather conditions, which are calling for wind in the 15-22 mph range.

The perception is the Chargers are an explosive team. They were at the start of the season before injuries struck. Now they aren't. Take away star pass protector left tackle Rashawn Slater, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Justin Herbert is left playing dump off to Austin Ekeler. Herbert also is banged-up with a painful rib injury. He's thrown only six touchdown passes in his last five games.

The Falcons have cornerback injuries. But Herbert is just left with inexperienced wideouts and tight end Gerald Everett. So he's not going to be able to exploit that as much as the oddsmaker anticipates with this high of a total.

Atlanta is being looked upon as a high scoring team off a 37-point game against the Panthers. The Falcons, however, were averaging 20.7 points during their previous four games. They rank 29th in passing and 25th in total yards.

The Falcons are not about super-talented Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Instead they feature mundane reserve running backs Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley in Arthur Smith's caveman run-oriented, eat-up-clock slow moving offense. Marcus Mariota has been in the NFL for eight years. He's still more feared as a runner than passer.

This one is priced wrong so I'm going Under.

Two strong defenses, slow tempo and possible bad weather. Add this up and you have the recipe for an Under.

Kentucky gives up 19.9 points a game. Missouri permits just 21.5 points per game. Both teams rank in the top 20 in fewest yards allowed per game. 
Neither team has a strong offense. Kentucky ranks 98th in scoring at 23.9 points. Missouri is 97th in scoring at 23.9 points per game. Each team plays at a very slow pace. The run-oriented Wildcats, in fact, have the slowest tempo in the country. 

The Under has covered in 21 of the Wildcats' last 29 road games. Missouri has been a huge money-maker for Under bettors going below the total in 10 of its last 11 games. The last five in this series played in Missouri have gone Under, too. 

There also could be weather issues with heavy wind and a chance of rain.

Weather is going to impact the amount of scoring in this game. Heavy winds, even gusting, are in the forecast. 

That could force a lot more running plays something the Badgers wouldn't mind. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is Wisconsin's interim head coach after Paul Chryst was fired earlier this season. 

Maryland's outstanding quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, missed last week's game against Northwestern. He's dealing with a knee injury. Tagovailoa is likely to start, but he could be gimpy and the blowing winds aren't suited to his downfield throwing. 

This is a low total, but not low enough when the matchup is Army versus Air Force in the Commanders' Classic. 

The Black Knights defeated Air Force, 21-14, last year - and that was one of the higher-scoring matchups. 

Here are the combined points in this matchup for the last five years: 35 (last year), 17 (2020), 30 (2019), 31 (2018) and 21 (2017). The Under, in fact, has cashed in 10 of the last 11 games in the series. 

This is what happens in a huge rivalry game between two completely run-oriented teams. Air Force has a tremendous defense this year, too. The Falcons rank ninth in total defense and ninth in scoring defense allowing 16.8 points a game. The Under has won 15 of the last 20 times Air Force has played a non-conference opponent. 

The game is being played at a neutral site, too, in Arlington, Texas. 

The Packers' defense looks far better on paper than it does on the field. Despite facing four below average quarterbacks in their last four matchups, including two backups and Zach Wilson, the Packers still are giving up 25.2 points during these past four games.

Now Green Bay draws Josh Allen and a Buffalo offense that is No. 2 in scoring at 29.3 points and first in total offense averaging 440.8 yards. The Bills are fresh, too, having been idle last week.

Safe to say the Bills will score their share of points. But can the Packers contribute to getting this total Over? Yes, they can.

Despite all the negative publicity and not having Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers has put up respectable numbers entering this week sixth in the NFL in touchdown passes with 11 and 10th in passing yards with 1,597.

Rodgers is going to have to keep up with Allen. That's especially the case if the Bills should build a lead, which is expected. The Packers won't have Allen Lazard, who has been their top wide receiver. But they do get Sammy Watkins back. Watkins won't lack motivation going against his former team. The Bills have multiple injuries in their secondary, down two studs in Tre'Davious and Micah Hyde.

Jimmy Garoppolo is a mediocre quarterback. But he's savvy enough to know how to distribute the ball to his weapons - and he just gained a monster weapon in Christian McCaffrey.

The Rams' defense is far from dominant, surrendering 22 or more points in four of their six games.

Look for the Rams' offense to pick up following their bye. Sean McVay should have some new wrinkles and a healthier offensive line with center Brian Allen returning.

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp will hurt a 49ers defense that has been dealing with multiple injuries to their secondary along with linebacker Dre Greenlaw joining Arik Armstead on the sidelines.

Both from a matchup perspective and trend/angles standpoint the Under seems the right play given this high of a total.

Coastal Carolina has gone Under in six of its last seven road games, while the Under has won in seven of Marshall's last eight home games.

Marshall ranks in the top-11 in defensive scoring, fewest yards allowed and run defense. Coastal Carolina hasn't seen a defense this good all season.

The Chanticleers are not a good defensive team, but they are opportunistic ranking 31st in takeaways. They are facing a feeble Marshall offense that ranks 82nd in scoring averaging 26.6 points and is 109th in passing yards.

The tempo is going to be slow, too, which is a huge plus for the Under.

Minnesota is run-oriented with a weak passing game. Rutgers ranks sixth in the nation in run defense and eighth in total defense. The Scarlet Knights permit just 88 yards rushing per game and 3.0 per rush attempt. The Gophers may not even have their starting QB, Tanner Morgan. He's questionable with a concussion.

The Gophers are strong defensively giving up the 10th-fewest points in the country at 16.4. Rutgers has cleared the 17-point barrier only once in its last five games. The Scarlet Knights rank 113th in yards per game.

Not surprisingly neither team plays at a fast tempo. In fact, they are two of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. So the clock will keep moving.

The Steelers have long been a great Under team on the road. The Under has cashed in 70 percent of their last 65 away games. The Dolphins have gone Under in 11 of their last 16 overall games.

Look for these strong trends to hold up here.

Kenny Pickett has cleared concussion protocol so he'll get the start. Perhaps Pickett one day might be a decent NFL starting QB. He isn't right now with a 67 passer rating and a 1-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Miami has a strong pass rush and the Steelers have a below average offensive line. Only two teams score fewer points per game than Pittsburgh's 16.2 average.

The Steelers held Tom Brady and Tampa Bay to only 18 points last week despite missing four of their top five defensive backs. They should get most of those players back, including former Dolphin and star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. He's a difference-maker. The Steelers showed against the Buccaneers that they have underrated depth in their secondary.

Tua Tagovailoa is back to start for Miami. The Steelers should be well prepared for him thanks to linebackers and special defensive assistant coach Brian Flores, who was the Dolphins head coach last year. The heady Fitzpatrick also knows his old team well.

This total is too short given the 49ers' multiple injuries on defense and also because Jimmy Garoppolo is off his two finest performances of the season and now facing a mediocre Chiefs defense.

First, though, let's discuss the Chiefs' offense. Have the Chiefs missed Tyreek Hill? No, they rank first in the NFL in scoring at 29.8 points per game. Patrick Mahomes is either the first or second-best QB in football depending on how you feel about Josh Allen. Mahomes is my choice.

Next up is Mahomes drawing the 49ers' defense at a great time. San Francisco has a cluster injury problem in its defensive line AND defensive backfield. The 49ers are down defensive linemen Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead. Nick Bosa is questionable with a groin injury. He won't be 100 percent if he plays. San Francisco is even more vulnerable in the secondary. Because of injuries to Emmanuel Moseley, Jimmie Ward and Charvarius Ward, the 49ers could be starting a rookie fifth-rounder and second-year fifth-rounder at the corners. Safety Talanoa Hufanga could be out, too, because of a concussion.

I see a shootout here because the 49ers are clicking on offense. Jimmy Garoppolo is off his two best games of the season throwing for a combined 549 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions the last two weeks.

The Chiefs give up 24.8 points a game. They rank 27th in pass defense. Kansas City only has four takeaways.

It would be an extra boost for the 49ers if their starting tackles, left tackle Trent Williams and right tackle Mike McGlinchey, are able to play. There is optimism that both will be ready. Even if they aren't, the 49ers' attack is based on running and short passes.

Only once in six games have the Broncos permitted more than 17 points during regulation. They could have the best defense in the NFL, considering how bad their offense is, ranking second in fewest yards per play, third in defensive total yards and fourth in scoring defense.

Second-year QB Zach Wilson continues to show nothing holding the Jets' offense hostage.  

Russell Wilson has the credibility, but his level of play hasn't been that much higher than Zach Wilson's. The Broncos have scored just seven TD's in six games with the worst red zone offense in the league. Russell Wilson is dealing with injuries to his shoulder and groin. If he can't go, the Broncos would be forced to start game-manager Brett Rypien, which would be even better for the Under. 

The Jets' defense is much improved, ranking ninth in total defense. They just held the Packers to 10 points at Green Bay. 

Weather is a factor here as well with heavy winds expected and a chance of rain. 

The Bengals' offensive line and Joe Mixon have played much better the past two games. Their improvement is huge for Joe Burrow, who was 28-for-37 for 300 yards and 3 TD's in the Bengals' 30-26 victory against the Saints last Sunday.

Expect to see the Bengals continue their high-scoring ways as they draw an Atlanta defense that doesn't rush the passer well - just eight sacks - and could be without both of its starting cornerbacks. Casey Hayward is out with a shoulder injury. A.J. Terrell is questionable with a thigh injury. The Falcons rank 31st in pass defense.

The Falcons have been surprisingly efficient offensively scoring 26 or more points in four of their games. They rank eighth in scoring at 24.3 behind a strong ground attack that is No. 3 in the NFL. The Falcons should be able to run on the Bengals, whose run defense is down two of their most underrated players - nose tackle D.J. Reader and linebacker Logan Wilson. Cincinnati ranks 21st in run defense.

The oddsmaker still must think Randy Moss is playing for Marshall. The Thundering Herd aren't good offensively. They're averaging 10 points during their last two Sun Belt Conference games. That was against Troy and Louisiana Lafayette, with one touchdown against Lafayette coming in garbage time. 

Marshall is heavily run-oriented. James Madison happens to have the top run defense in the nation. 

The oddsmaker might have been influenced by James Madison losing, 45-38, to Georgia Southern this past Saturday. Marshall is a much better defensive team and is nearly as up-tempo as Georgia Southern. 

The Thundering Herd rank 17th in scoring defense giving up 17.3 points a game. They are 13th in total defense holding foes to 290.3 yards per game. The Dukes do not play at a fast tempo especially when in the lead, which should be the case since they are around two-touchdown favorites. 

(Note: The total has come down since I first released the play. This has hurt the line value, but the handicap still holds as I don't see these teams reaching 50 points.)

Northern Illinois has gone Over in six of its seven games this season. The Huskies' offense has taken off averaging 36.3 points in their last three games. Rocky Lombardi returned last week for the Huskies after being out. That's just another plus because he's one of the best QB's in the MAC.

He faces an Ohio defense that ranks second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed per play. The Bobcats surrender an average of 36.9 points a game. 

This isn't just going to be one-way scoring. Ohio will put up a lot of points on Northern Illinois behind Kurtis Rourke, who could be the top QB in the MAC. He's completed 70 percent of his throws and has accounted for 17 TD's in seven games. The Bobcats rank 13th in the country in passing yards. 

The Huskies rank 116th in scoring defense allowing 34.3 points and also rank 116th in pass defense. They are not going to be able to slow down Rourke. 

The Over has cashed in each of Ohio's last five home games. 

There have been some wild games in the American Athletic Conference. Houston and Navy both were involved in two of them last week. The Cougars came back from a 26-7 fourth quarter deficit to nip Memphis, 33-32, while Navy scored 20 fourth-quarter points while gaining 510 yards in a 40-34 loss to SMU.

The Cougars are within one point of having every one of their games go Over. They average 31.3 points and give up 33.7 points. All six of Houston's opponents have scored a minimum of 27 points against the Cougars.

Houston QB Clayton Tune gets to face a Navy pass defense that ranks 111th.

The Midshipmen have scored a combined 87 points in their last two games against Tulsa and SMU. They are the fifth-best rushing team in the nation.

Yet the marketplace has been on the Under. The total has been knocked down enough where it has now become an excellent value play on the Over.

New Orleans isn't good anymore on defense. The Saints have yielded at least 20 points in every one of their games. They are giving up an average of 30 points during their last three games. Just two weeks ago, the Saints were lit up by Geno Smith in a 39-32 win.

The Cardinals have yet to reach their stride offensively. However, they have moved the ball ranking fifth in total yards. Kyler Murray should be in line for a big game. The Saints have only one interception and will be minus their top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore.

Murray lost Marquise Brown, but DeAndre Hopkins is off the suspended list and newcomer Robbie Anderson provides a deep threat.

I'm fine with whomever the Saints start at quarterback whether it's Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston or even Taysom Hill. The key for the Saints is Alvin Kamara, he should come up big against a mediocre Cardinals defense. Star rookie wideout Chris Olave is back from injury to bolster the Saints' downfield passing attack. Tight end Juwan Johnson is an underrated pass catcher for the Saints.

A decent offense and bad defense. That's Rice and its formula for going Over in 14 of its last 17 games, including all five this season.

I see another Over in the Owls' matchup against Florida Atlantic.

Both teams should be fresh with a few tricks up their sleeves having each enjoyed a bye last week. 

Rice gives up 31 points a game. The Owls are averaging 35 points, however, during their last four games. 

Florida Atlantic also averages 31 points per game. Florida Atlantic has surrendered at least 40 points against three of its last four Division I opponents. Florida Atlantic is off a bad 45-28 loss to North Texas State. 

I was surprised to see this total open this high. Think defense rather than offense in this matchup. 

It's been a week and I still haven't recovered from the stench of last Thursday night's NFL game when the Colts beat the Broncos, 12-9, in overtime. I wouldn't blame Roger Goodell - or put it past him - if he secretly made sure there is more offense in this Thursday game. Amazon Prime Video must have real buyer's remorse having shelled out a reported $1.2 billion per year to acquire the Thursday night broadcasts.

Now we get what looks like another stinker, the Commanders against the Bears. Tough to get involved with a side here. I'll hold my nose and go Over this total. It's an extremely low number given how the game has become so unfairly skewed toward the offense. Fortunately for viewing purposes, Jerome Boger and his inept crew of excessive flag throwers won't be the officiating crew here. They'll be doing their part to ruin the Jaguars-Colts game.

Carson Wentz has thrown the second-highest amount of passes. Justin Fields has thrown the fewest passes of any quarterback who has started more than two games. Look for Wentz to throw fewer passes and for Fields to throw more passes. That will make both of them more effective.

Wentz actually looked very good the first two weeks of the season when he went against the Jaguars and Lions. The Commanders have averaged only 11.6 points during their last three games going against better defenses in the Eagles, Cowboys and Titans. The Bears rank second-to-last in the NFL in run defense and 22nd in defensive total yards. That's going against three of five offenses that were rendered weak at the time because of the situation: 49ers going with inexperienced Trey Lance on the road in a monsoon, Texans and Giants, who had both Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor injured against Chicago.

Wentz is a cripple shooter. He's not good against elite defenses. However, he's fully capable of putting up good numbers against weak-to-mediocre defenses especially when given the benefit of a decent running attack. Power back Brian Robinson has returned to the Commanders' lineup bolstering their rushing balance. Wentz has 10 TD passes. Only four QB's have thrown more.

Keep in mind the bar is set low with this short total.

Cooper Kupp has 49 receptions. Justin Fields has 49 pass completions. Maybe Fields never will be a good enough downfield passer to cut it in the NFL. But Chicago needs to find that out. It's been five weeks now. The Bears' offensive line is not as terrible as perceived. It's actually held up well. The Bears finally started to open things up more after falling behind 21-3 to the Vikings on the road last Sunday. Chicago actually went in front, 22-21, before losing on a Minnesota touchdown with 2:26 left. Fields nearly engineered a successful late drive that could have tied the game, but his receiver was stripped of the ball at Minnesota's 39-yard line following a 15-yard completion.

That come-from-behind effort, though, should boost the Bears' confidence in Fields and the offense. Fields threw for a season-high 208 yards against the Vikings, completed 71.4 percent of his throws and had a passer rating of 118.8. The Commanders rank 25th in scoring defense giving up 25.6 points a game. They have just one takeaway.

Once again, the bar is set extremely low on this total. So I'm going Over.

No Tyreek Hill, no problem. The Chiefs' offense is just as deadly this season without Hill due to the greatness of Patrick Mahomes and stronger wide receiving and running back depth.

The Raiders have three sacks and three takeaways in four games. Aside from Maxx Crosby, they don't have any big-play defenders. They certainly don't have enough depth in the defensive backfield to effectively slow down the many receiving targets that Mahomes has.

The Chiefs are averaging 37.4 points during the eight games Mahomes has played against the Raiders. This includes last season when the Chiefs scored a combined 89 points versus Las Vegas.

Las Vegas, though, will do its share, too, to make sure this total goes Over. Derek Carr has never had a wide receiver as good as Davonte Adams. The Raiders' offensive line has shown positive signs of coming around and Josh Jacobs is off his finest game of the season. He may be the best running back on the field. Daniel Carlson may be the second-best kicker in the NFL next to Justin Tucker.

Kansas City just gave up 31 points, 373 passing yards and 27 first downs to the Buccaneers last week. Tampa Bay entered that game averaging just 17 points in its first three games.

This has been an Over series with the last four going above the total.

I'm going to pounce on going Over 40 1/2 in the Giants-Packers London game with the belief that either Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor will be able to play for the Giants.

If that's the case, this total is way too low.

The Packers are getting better on offense each week as their offensive line rounds into shape and Aaron Rodgers gets more in sync with his new rookie wide receivers. Rodgers has Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon - perhaps the best running back tandem in the league - at his disposal along with several veteran receivers.

Green Bay is going to have to contend with a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley, who has 463 rushing yards. That's more than 21 NFL teams. The Packers allowed the Patriots to average 5.1 rushing yards per carry on 33 attempts last week.

South Carolina is giving up an average of 46 points a game during its two SEC matchups, which were against Georgia and Arkansas. The Gamecocks have played easy opponents during their past two games. Now they go back into SEC competition. 

Chris Rodriguez is an elite running back for Kentucky. He's back in the lineup and should do well against a South Carolina run defense that ranks 106th. Kentucky's star QB Will Levis is fine, too, after hurting his hand last week. South Carolina lacks the necessary pass rush to both Levis. 

The Gamecocks are averaging 35.6 points per game. They have a pro prospect at QB in Spencer Rattler. He leads a balanced attack. South Carolina has scored 56 and 50 points, respectively, during its last two games going against Charlotte and South Carolina State. Kentucky is much better on defense than those two teams.

However, the Wildcats only have four takeaways. So I see South Carolina holding up its end in getting this total Over. 

James Madison has been most impressive in its transition from FCS to FBS this season going 4-0 SU and ATS. The Dukes are averaging 44.8 points, which ranks eighth in the nation.

Arkansas State can score, too, especially at home scoring 58 and 45 points, respectively, this season. I see a shootout here similar to what the Red Wolves were involved in three weeks ago when they lost, 44-32, to Memphis.

Both teams have excellent quarterbacks. Todd Centeio is a dual threat for James Madison. He's accounted for 13 TD's with 913 yards passing and another 252 yards rushing. Arkansas State QB James Blackman leads an attack that averages 34.6 points.

Air Force leads the nation in rushing averaging 379 yards. Utah State can't stop the run. The Aggies allow 5.3 yards per run, which ranks 117th. They are giving up 36.4 points per game. 

Utah State's new QB, Cooper Legas, made his first start last week against BYU. He threw a pair of TD passes and the Aggies scored 26 points.

Air Force has played against weak passing teams. The Aggies play up-tempo. This combination should produce points for Utah State. 

This is a big revenge spot for Florida after it lost to Missouri, 24-23, on the road last year. That was the fifth straight time in this series the Under covered.

I see another Under in this matchup.

Missouri's defense was impressive in holding Georgia to 26 points last week. The Tigers could be looking to stay on the ground more knowing they may be without their top wide receiver, Dominic Lovett.

Florida has gone Under in seven of its last 10 home games. The Gators' defensive statistics are skewed because they've played Utah, Kentucky and Tennessee.

The defenses of these two teams are way ahead of their offenses making this total too high.

The Colts are last in scoring at 14.3 points a game. Indy's offensive line has performed below expectations and Matt Ryan is off to a slow start. Ryan has committed seven turnovers in four starts and been sacked 15 times. The Broncos have a top-six defense. Patrick Surtain has emerged as a lock-down cornerback.

Making matters potentially worse for the Colts is an ankle injury suffered by Jonathan Taylor this past Sunday. Even if he manages to play, Taylor won't be 100 percent especially on a short week.

Denver is averaging only 16.5 points. Russell Wilson also is off to a slow beginning with his new team. The Broncos just lost their best running back, Javonte Williams, to a season-ending knee injury. That means a heavy dose of mediocre Melvin Gordon, who has a fumbling problem. Gordon has lost the ball in five of his last 44 carries.

The Colts rank sixth in total defense and rush defense.

The Buccaneers have given up the fewest points in the league. Tom Brady is off to a slow start. The Chiefs are off a loss to the Colts in which they were held to 17 points.

So I get why this total is low given the caliber of these offenses.

I just find it too low.

The Chiefs had scored 24 or more points in 10 straight games until last week's loss to the Colts. The Chiefs were hurt offensively by some questionable official's calls and missed kicks from a backup kicker. They have since switched kickers with Harrison Butker still not ready.

The Buccaneers have an outstanding defense. No argument there. But it's not as dominant as the numbers show. Tampa Bay's opponents were the Cowboys, who are thin at wide receiver and in the offensive line, turnover-prone and banged-up Jameis Winston and the Saints and the ground-oriented Packers, who are in wide receiver development.

Kansas City doesn't have superstar Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs, though, have better wide receiver and running back depth than they've had before to compensate. They are two levels higher than any offense the Buccaneers have faced so far this season.

The Buccaneers are not facing an elite defense taking on the Chiefs. Brady should get back into rhythm with the Buccaneers getting healthier in the offensive line and at wide receiver. Mike Evans coming off suspension is huge.

Both teams have surprised on offense. The Browns are averaging 28.3 points, rank fifth in total yards and have the NFL's leading rusher, Nick Chubb. 

The Falcons are averaging 26.7 points. They've faced a pair of respectable defenses, too, in the Rams and Saints. 

A key is each team's quarterback has performed better than many expected. Jacoby Brissett has completed 74 percent of his throws with three TD passes during his last two games. Marcus Mariota has completed 63.3 percent of his passes, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, on the season. He's given the Falcons a running dimension they haven't had at quarterback during the long Matt Ryan era. 

The Falcons have three playmakers - Cordarrelle Patterson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Browns permitted washed-up Joe Flacco to have his best game in a decade two weeks ago allowing him to throw for 307 yards and four TD passes. The Browns lost linebacker Anthony Walker to a season-ending injury last week and won't have premier pass rusher Myles Garrett, who was involved in a car accident this week. 

The Browns' dominant offensive line should control the line of scrimmage against the Falcons. Atlanta yields 27 points a game and ranks 26th in total defense. 

Both teams should enjoy great success on the ground given the quality of their ground attacks and vulnerability of the opponent's rush defense. 

Georgia State plays fast. The Panthers have the shortest time of possession of any team in the country. The Panthers rank 37th in rushing. Army ranks 114th in run defense. The Over has cashed in eight of Georgia State's last 11 non-conference games. 

The Panthers are giving up 38.3 points pre game. They rank 119th in total defense. Army is the No. 3 rushing team in the country. 

Just two weeks ago, Georgia State surrendered 42 points to Charlotte. The 49ers average 19.5 points in their four other games. That certainly bodes well for Army. 

The oddsmaker has overreacted to no Dak Prescott with this low of a total. 

Cooper Rush is a serviceable backup quarterback. He's not a stiff. He has skill position talent to rely on. Ezekiel Elliott looks much better than he did last season. Tony Pollard is a home run threat and drawing more playing time. The Cowboys also get back Michael Gallup to upgrade their wide receiving corps. The Giants aren't likely to have Leonard Williams, their best defensive lineman. 

The Giants are far more credible on offense under Brian Daboll. New York's offensive line has improved and Saquan Barkley is running the best he has since his rookie season, finally free of injuries. Barkley entered Week 3 leading the NFL in rushing yards.

It doesn't take much in today's NFL, with its rules skewed toward offense, to get above a total less than 40. 

Emerging skill position talent, above average offensive line and a still-terrible defense make the Lions an attractive Over team. The Lions have sailed well above the total in each of their last four games, including both games this season.

I see that trend continuing against the Vikings, whose offense is unshackled with a coaching switch from old school Mike Zimmer to Kevin O'Connell.

The Lions are the second-highest scoring team in the NFL at 35.5 points. Detroit's already good offensive line gets back center Frank Ragnow. The Vikings have aging and slow cornerbacks. They also are likely to be minus star safety Harrison Smith, who suffered a concussion this past Monday.

The Vikings should feast at home versus a bottom-three Lions defense that is allowing 32.5 points and 425.5 yards per game.

This is the lowest total Houston has had this season - and it's not justified. 

Rice has bounced back from a 66-14 opening loss to USC, to roll past McNeese State, 52-10, and then upset Louisiana Lafayette, 33-21, last week. That marked the seventh straight time the Owls have gone above the total. 

TJ McMahon has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for Rice for 642 yards and seven TD's through these first three games. Houston ranks 118th in total defense. The Cougars have this low defensive ranking despite not having faced a top-30 offense. 

The 1-2 Cougars are frustrated having lost to Texas Tech in double overtime and then getting upset by Kansas, 48-30, during their past two games. The Cougars have a high-powered attack led by QB Clayton Tune, who has completed close to 63 percent of his throws for 744 yards and five TD's. He has one of the better receivers in the country, Nathaniel Dell. Houston scored 44 points against Rice last season. 

The Over has cashed in five of Houston's last six games. 

The competition hasn't been good. Still, Mississippi has held its first three opponents to an average of 4.3 points after shutting out Georgia Tech last week. So I find this total too high.

Tulsa is No. 1 in the country in passing with Davis Brin. But the Golden Hurricane are going against an SEC defense that is playing great. The Rebels are averaging more than four sacks a game. Tulsa has given up 10 sacks in three games against inferior competition.

Mississippi has run the ball nearly 65 percent of the time. The Rebels will look to pound the ball against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have had trouble stopping the run. But running the ball is good for the Under especially with a total in this high range.

The combination of being run-oriented and playing outstanding defense has resulted in Ole Miss going Under in 10 of its last 11 games.

This total may look high on the surface, but it's not when these two teams are involved. There were 85 and 86 points scored in North Texas' last two games. There were 76 points produced in Memphis' last game. 

Both teams are well above average offensively and terrible defensively. Each also ranks in the top 25 in fastest tempo. That's a recipe for Over.

North Texas ranks 126th defensively in yards giving up 502.8 per game. The Mean Green allow 36.5 points a game, which rates 115th. Memphis QB Seth Hennigan and his bevy of weapons can easily exploit that.

The Tigers are 99th in scoring defense permitting 31.3 points a game. They rank 111th in pass defense. North Texas ranks 33rd in offensive yards per game. 

Carson Wentz lit up a bad Jacksonville defense last Sunday. He's capable of doing that given the underrated receiving weapons he has to go with Terry McLaurin in Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, a healthy Logan Thomas and both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic out of the backfield.

The Lions' defense is as bad as Jacksonville's defense, if not worse. Detroit is giving up an average of 39.6 points in its last three games going back to last season.

Detroit has firepower, though. Jared Goff plays his best when he's home on a fast indoor track and the conditions are pristine. That's the case here.

The Commanders yielded 22 points to the inefficient Jaguars last week, who continually made mistakes on offense. The Commanders didn't really stop the Jaguars. The Jaguars stopped themselves. Washington remains without its best interior defensive player with Chase Young out.

These teams have as many defensive stars as they do offensive stars. It's the offensive stars and offensive linemen, though, that are the banged-up parts of these teams, though.

The Buccaneers traditionally struggle against New Orleans. The last time these teams met, the Saints shut out the Buccaneers, 9-0. Tampa Bay is 0-4 in its last four regular-season meetings against New Orleans. Tom Brady turned the ball over 10 times and was sacked 13 times during these four games.

Brady could be in for another long day as the Buccaneers have cluster injury problems in the offensive line and wide receiver. Every one of Tampa Bay's wideouts is dealing with some sort of injury. Chris Godwin is unlikely to play. The Bucs are forced to start two inexperienced offensive line starters, too, because of injuries. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs is Tampa Bay's only reliable offensive lineman.

The Saints have offensive line issues, too. Their offensive line has regressed because of injuries and defections. Alvin Kamara also is dealing with sore ribs.

Both teams have defensive coaches now as their head coach. The Saints go from Sean Payton to Dennis Allen, who was either defensive coordinator or interim head coach during the past four games between the two teams, while Todd Bowles is the Buccaneers head coach replacing Bruce Arians. Payton and Arians were each well-respected for their offensive acumen. Allen and Bowles are sharp, too, - but on the defensive side.

This game is all about offense. Neither team has much defensively. There were a whopping 105 points scored in last year's game.

Memphis has the passing attack and speed to score at will against a vulnerable Arkansas State secondary. The Tigers scored 55 points and produced 680 yards of offense in beating the Red Wolves, 55-50, last season.

Arkansas State has enough offense to contribute to this total going Over.

Georgia Tech isn't explosive enough to trade points with Mississippi ranking 124th in passing. The Yellow Jackets are back to trying to control the ball via their ground game. Georgia Tech has played decent run defense, though, and the Rebels apparently aren't fully sold yet on USC transfer QB Jaxson Dart.

So I'm expecting more running plays than perceived, which is good for an Under with a total in this high range. Mississippi does have a pair of good running backs in Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans. The strength of Georgia Tech, though, is a defensive line that in two games versus Clemson and Western Carolina has recorded seven sacks and 15 tackles for losses.

Note that Georgia Tech plays its home games on grass. Mississippi is a turf team. The Rebels have gone Under eight of the last nine times when playing on grass.

There's a false perception surrounding Virginia. Just because the Cavaliers have a decent QB, Brennan Armstrong, doesn't mean they have a good offense. The Cavaliers are averaging 18.5 points during their first two games. They have a new offensive philosophy of grinding the ball on the ground instead of letting Armstrong make plays through the air. Some of this strategy is caused by Virginia lacking playmakers around Armstrong and having a very bad offensive line.

Old Dominion is averaging 20.5 points in its first two games. The Monarchs got thrown a curve when Dave Patenaude, their offensive coordinator last season, resigned just weeks before the start of the season. The Monarchs don't make many big plays on offense. Their run defense, though, is decent. Old Dominion held opposing teams to 134.2 rushing yards per game while giving up 12 rushing TD's last year.

The Under has cashed in seven of Virginia's last eight home games. The Under also has cashed seven of the past 10 times when Old Dominion has met a non-conference foe.

This is a terrible matchup. But it sets up a winning play on the Under. 

New Mexico State has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Aggies have put up 12 points total against Nevada-Reno and Minnesota. They had less than 100 yards total offense against the Gophers.

UTEP hasn't broken the 25-point barrier in eight of its last nine games. The Miners have scored 13 points in each of their two games against North Texas and Oklahoma. New Mexico State's coach Jerry Kill is well known for his slow pace. He completely plays for field position. UTEP's defensive strength is run defense.

The Miners also prefer to play slow. This total is low, but not low enough.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover put this total out shortly after the game came on the board. He made it his Non-Conference Total of the Year based on tremendous line value and a strong handicap. Within 24 hours, though, the total had been bet so far up that Stephen took the game down because the line value had been lost. However, the handicap still holds.)

Two bad defenses against fast-paced offenses. That's a winning combination for an Over in this matchup between Florida International and Texas State. 

How bad is Florida International? The Panthers had to go overtime to nip Bryant, a bad FCS program, 38-37. Bryant had eight plays of at least 20 yards against the Panthers. The Panthers are in total rebuild mode under new coach Mike MacIntyre.

A key takeaway from that game was the Panthers taking less than 20 seconds between running plays. That's a tremendously fast pace. 

Texas State is up-tempo, too. The Bobcats found themselves a good QB in Layne Hatcher, who was the Freshman of the Year in the Sun Belt Conference at Arkansas State before transferring to Texas State. The Bobcats' problem is once again defense. They surrendered 38 points to Nevada last week. The Wolf Pack lost all of their skill position stars from last season and managed only 23 points against New Mexico State in their first game. 

Virginia is going to find it much tougher going against Illinois after opening with an easy win against Richmond. The Illini have a tough defense especially against the run. Neither Wyoming nor Indiana could effectively run on the Illini. 

The Illini are a ground-and-pound team. They have an excellent running back in Chase Brown. But I'm not nearly so enamored of their QB, Tommy Devito. 

Virginia has a much better QB in Brennan Armstrong. However, the Cavaliers lost each of their five starting offensive linemen from last season. So an early season road game - their first of the year - against a stout Illinois front four is not ideal. 

The David Cutcliffe era is finished at Duke. It's replaced by defensive-minded Mike Elko. The Blue Devils looked sharp defensively in Elko's head coaching debut shutting out Temple, 30-0, last week. Duke held the Owls to 179 total yards and 12 first downs. Another takeaway from that game was the Blue Devils' conservative offensive style scoring just six points in the second half after building a 24-0 halftime lead.

Now the Blue Devils meet a physical Big Ten defense in Northwestern. The Wildcats have had extra time to prepare having last played in Dublin, Ireland on Aug. 27, beating Nebraska, 31-28, in that game.

Duke hosted Northwestern last year and won, 30-23. Now it's Northwestern's turn to host. The Wildcats are a strong Under team at home where the low side has cashed 72 percent of the time during their last 75 home games.

I'm down on Northwestern QB Ryan Hilinski and the rest of the Wildcats' skill position players rating them among the worst in the Big Ten.

The total is large here, but not big enough given the matchup. 

Buffalo's defense rates among the best going by last year's statistics. Truth be told, though, it's not as good as it's ranking, especially with star cornerback Tre'Davious White out with a knee injury. The Bills fatten their defensive numbers by steamrolling easy competition. Buffalo played only two playoff teams during the regular season - the Patriots and Chiefs before they got rolling. 

The Bills are really going to miss White in trying to deal with Cooper Kupp, who had maybe the finest receiving season in NFL history with 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Rams upgraded their No. 2 wideout position, too, signing Allen Robinson. Also Cam Akers, LA's most talented running back, has proclaimed himself healthy. The Rams finished in the top-nine in scoring and yards last season. They should do even better this season. 

I'm more sold on the Bills' offense compared to their defense. Buffalo's passing attack is a fine oiled machine right now. Josh Allen is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Buffalo scored the third-most points in the NFL last season. The Bills could be even more dangerous with the emergence of speedster Isaiah McKenzie in the slot and the pass-catching talents out of the backfield of rookie James Cook to go with elite wideout Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis and tight end Dawson Knox. 

The Rams may have the top cornerback in the league, Jalen Ramsey. But their strength is star power not depth. They don't have enough quality players in the secondary to stay up with all of Allen's targets. Allen also neutralizes Aaron Donald because of his tremendous mobility. The two most explosive offenses the Rams faced during their last 11 games were the Packers and Buccaneers. Green Bay scored 36 points. Tampa Bay produced 27 points. 

Another plus for the Over is the game being played on a fast track at SoFi Stadium, which has artificial turf. This is the first game of the season. It's nationally televised. The league wants points to be scored that's why rules have been skewed to favor offense. I can't imagine the NFL wants its opening showcase game to be littered with a lot of offensive holding penalties either. 

These are two-high scoring teams with plenty of returning firepower.

Houston averaged nearly 36 points a game last season. Back for the Cougars are QB Clayton Tune, who completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 3,544 yards and threw 30 TD's, and his leading receiver, Nathaniel Dell. 

Texas San Antonio averaged 36.9 points last season and return QB Frank Harris, who completed 66.1 percent of his throws for 3,177 yards with 27 TD passes. He also rushed for 566 yards and had six TD's on the ground. He faces a Cougars secondary that lost their two best cornerbacks. 

The Roadrunners also have back seven other offensive starters, including their top four receivers and four offensive linemen. Their losses were on defense where only five starters are back. 

Yes Georgia lost a ton of talent from its defense. That defense gave up a modern-day record 6.9 points per game. The Bulldogs, though, just reload. Don't kid yourself, Georgia's defense still is dominant. 

Dan Lanning was Georgia's co-defensive coordinator the past three years. Now he happens to be the head coach of Oregon. So he knows the Bulldogs well. Oregon has some outstanding defensive talent, too. 

Neither team's quarterback is dynamic. Georgia's Stetson Bennett is steady rather than spectacular while Oregon QB Bo Nix did nothing as a three-year starter at Auburn. The Bulldogs are familiar with Nix, too. 

The Ducks are learning a new offense and Georgia plays at a slow tempo. These are two more pluses for the Under. 

An up-tempo, fast-pace style featuring exciting playmakers and vulnerable defenses should result in more than enough points to get this Over the total.

Let's begin with Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are going to play faster under new coach Sonny Cumbie, who loves to pass. The Bulldogs should score their share of points against a vulnerable Missouri defense that has plenty of questions in its secondary. Louisiana Tech's offensive strengths is its passing attack and a much improved offensive line.

Brady Cook won Missouri's starting QB position. He's well versed in the Tigers' attack and has some outstanding wide receiving weapons. The Tigers shouldn't encounter much resistance from a weak Louisiana Tech defense that ranked 106th in total defense and 114th in scoring defense giving up 34 points per game last year.

Jerry Kill is New Mexico State's new head coach. We know Kill's style - run the ball, take time off the clock and play for field position. Kill inherits an inexperienced offense full of new starters.

Nevada's new coach, Ken Wilson, holds the same cards with his offense - just about all new players. The Wolf Pack lost all of their talented skill position players from last year. Wilson is more run-oriented, too, than the man he replaced, Jay Norvell. Wilson also is dealing with an inexperienced offensive line.

New Mexico State returns eight defensive starters. The Aggies have decent linebackers. Given the new makeup of these teams with run-oriented coaches, I see fewer points being produced than the oddsmaker envisioned.

Charlotte and Florida Atlantic are a pair of middle-of-the-road Conference USA teams whose offenses should be ahead of their defenses for this opener. 

Charlotte has one of the better QB's in the conference, Chris Reynolds. He's one of eight returning offensive starters for the 49ers. Reynolds is the school's all-time passing leader with 7,726 yards. He set school records with 2,684 passing yards and 26 TD throws last season. Florida Atlantic is breaking in new cornerbacks and has an unproven pass rush. 

The Owls scored 38 points on Charlotte in last year's game. They have a dual threat QB in N'Kosi Perry. The Owls have back their two top receivers, LaJohntay Wester and Je'Quan Burton. Johnny Ford gives Florida Atlantic the best running back on the field. 

Given the high quality of quarterbacks, wide receivers and offensive coaching acumen and aggressiveness of Sean McVay and Zac Taylor, I easily envision at least 50 points being scored in this Super Bowl just like eight of the last 13 Super Bowls.

Defenses don't have a chance anymore against great offenses in today's modern game. The NFL has manipulated the rules so much that quarterbacks and wide receivers get way too much protection.

Teamed up for the first time under offensive guru McVay, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp produced their finest seasons. The Bengals ranked 26th in pass defense. The Rams are going to get their points here. LA is back to being balanced with the return of Cam Akers to go with inside runner Sony MIchel.

Only Tom Brady threw more TD passes than Stafford. Kupp had one of the greatest receiving years in NFL history leading the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's. Kupp hasn't been contained all season.

Burrow and his trio of outstanding receivers plus Joe Mixon, the NFL's third-leading rusher, trump LA's defense. The Rams have a pair of defensive studs in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. However, the Rams are below par at linebacker and safety. This is where they are really going to miss underrated injured safety Jordan Fuller, who was the Rams' captain, defensive signal-caller and leading tackler.

The Rams are most vulnerable in the middle of the field. This is where Burrow likes to attack with short passes to his trio of star wideouts Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, who has come on to produce five 100-yard receiving games in his last nine games. The threat of Mixon helps keep LA's strong pass rush neutralized.

Neither McVay nor Taylor coach scared. They aren't afraid to go for it on fourth down. This is the right way to coach when both team's have outstanding offenses and the rules are skewed almost completely in favor of the offense.

Here are my Super Bowl props: 

I don't trust the Rams' offense against the 49ers. San Francisco held LA to an average of 17 points and 271.5 yards in the team's two meetings this season. The Rams have been held to an average of 17.5 points during their last four games against San Francisco.

Matthew Stafford had a great season with 41 TD passes. But Stafford also tied Trevor Lawrence for the most interceptions with 17. The 49ers can generate a strong pass rush without having to blitz. This is huge because Stafford is strong against blitzes. Nick Bosa can be just as disruptive to an offense as Aaron Donald is for the Rams.

Keep an eye on the status of each team's starting offensive left tackles. The 49ers' Trent Williams was on crutches following the 49ers' win against the Packers last week, while the Rams' Andrew Whitworth missed his team's victory against the Buccaneers because of an ankle injury.

The 49ers ranked No. 3 in defensive total yards. They were in the top seven against both the run and pass.

The Rams' pass rush has come on strong with Von Miller making an impact. Jalen Ramsey gives the Rams the best defensive back. The 49ers are heavily ground-oriented so that is going to eat clock.

I don't trust Jimmy Garoppolo. He's an extremely limited quarterback.

So Under is the best course of action.

This is one of the Packers' strongest offenses ever thanks to Aaron Rodgers, who during his last 6 1/2 games threw for 1,929 yards with a 20-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rodgers has a deep wide receiving corps headed by Davante Adams, a top three overall wide receiver, and one of the best running back combos in the league, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

Cold weather isn't going to derail this attack especially when wind won't be a major factor. The 49ers don't have the backend up to hang with all of Rogers' targets. Green Bay could have nearly its entire starting offensive line intact, too, for the first time this season. San Francisco is hoping to have back its best two defenders, pass rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner. Both were injured against the Cowboys last week. It's just an added bonus for Green Bay if either of those players is out.

The cold elements shouldn't bother the 49ers either because their attack is predicated on running and Jimmy Garoppolo playing point guard distributing short passes to Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, all of whom are outstanding at gaining yards after the catch. Samuel has the most unique skill set in the NFL with his pass catching skills, rushing talents and even the ability to pass.

The Packers could get back cornerback Jaire Alexander and pass rusher Za'Darius Smith. Even if those two return, they aren't likely to play the entire game and their talents are more suited to defend against the pass rather than the run. The physical 49ers should control the trenches when running.

Green Bay's defense slipped noticeably as the season wore on. If you throw out holding the Vikings to just 10 points when Sean Mannion was Minnesota's QB, the Packers have surrendered an average of 30.1 points during their last six games.

The Chiefs' explosive offense is back on track averaging 35.4 points during their last five games. This includes producing 36 points against the Steelers in Week 16. The Chiefs scored on each of their first four possessions, piling up 381 total yards of offense. Patrick Mahomes threw for 258 yards and 3 TD's despite not having Travis Kelce. 

Pittsburgh has surrendered at least 36 points in four of its last five road games. 

Safe to say, the Chiefs are going to get their share of points here. 

But what about the Steelers? Can Pittsburgh contribute its share of points? 

I believe the Steelers can. The Chiefs' run defense has become leaky giving up an average of 143.2 yards rushing in their last four games. If Najee Harris is effective on the ground, the Steelers' passing attack can be effective off play-action. 

If the Chiefs load up to stop the run by committing their safeties, Ben Roethlisberger will attack their man coverage. Roethlisberger won't be shy about passing in what likely is his final game. 

It's easy to remember the Raiders' last game. That being a memorable, 35-32, home overtime victory against the Chargers on national TV this past Sunday night.

Those combined 67 points and Joe Burrow's hot hand may have influenced this opening total, which I find too high given the matchup and expected weather conditions.

The forecast is for temperatures to be in the 20s with a 50 percent chance of snow. Las Vegas hasn't played in under 44 degree weather all season.

Burrow was sizzling in Weeks 16 and 17 combining to pass for nearly 1,000 yards with eight TD's. Burrow, though, may have lost some of his hot hand after being rested this past Sunday. The Raiders are a respectable 13th in pass defense. Las Vegas had allowed 15.6 points in its past three games prior to meeting the Chargers.

Cincinnati's defense was much improved this season especially against the run, ranking fifth in the NFL. The Bengals held the Raiders to 13 points and fewer than 300 yards of offense in their, 32-13, victory in Week 11.

Before scoring 35 points on the Chargers, the Raiders had averaged only 14 points during their last five games. Derek Carr needs Josh Jacobs to keep him out of obvious passing situations. I don't see Jacobs doing much, though, against Cincinnati's strong rush defense.

Prop Bet

When healthy, Darren Waller is one of the top-five tight ends in football. Waller missed Weeks 13-17, but returned last week against the Chargers.

This total has gone up four points from when the teams met in last month's SEC title game. That's because Alabama blasted Georgia, 41-24, in that matchup.

I don't see that happening again now that Georgia has a better read on Bryce Young, Jameson Williams, Brian Robinson and the rest of Alabama's high-powered attack.

Until that loss to the Crimson Tide, the Bulldogs hadn't given up more than 17 points in a game all season, holding eight foes to seven or fewer points. Georgia has the best defense in the country and that's not up for debate. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense, second in defensive total yards, No. 3 in passing yards and fourth in rushing yards.

The Under is 8-2-2 in Georgia's last 12 neutral site games.

Alabama, naturally, has defensive studs, too. The Crimson Tide also is facing a lesser QB in Stetson Bennett.

I understand that both of these offenses have regressed very much.

But this total is too low especially with this game being played on a fast track inside a dome.

The Saints may get both of their starting offensive tackles, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramzcyk, back. That would be a huge plus as Armstead and Ramzcyk are well above average.

I consider dual threat Taysom Hill a major upgrade on Trevor Siemian. Alvin Kamara is an elite all-purpose back. Hill will be operating against an Atlanta defense that ranks 29th in points allowed, 26th in run defense and 24th in total defense.

Matt Ryan has endured a down season. But he's not devoid of weapons with Cordarrelle Patterson, who has put together a Kamara-type all-purpose season with 1,154 yards from scrimmage, and star tight end Kyle Pitts, who will be trying to break Mike Ditka's rookie record for tight end receiving yardage.

Two bad offenses playing in cold weather. Sounds like an Under, right? No, not when the total is this low and two worn down defenses are involved. 

The Giants are giving up an average of 30.6 points during their last three games. The Bears have scored at least 22 points in three of their past four games. 

David Montgomery is in line for a big performance with the Giants possibly down several of their run-stuffing defensive linemen. Andy Dalton can be effective with Montgomery doing the heavy lifting. Dalton has several underrated receiving targets. Matt Nagy shouldn't be afraid to open the playbook for the veteran Dalton. It's not like Nagy has anything to lose since he's likely to be canned at the end of the season.  

Former Bear Mike Glennon should get the start for the Giants. Glennon is a stiff, but he has some talented skill-position weapons and the Bears defense has not been good for a while now giving up an average of 27.6 points in their last nine games. 

This figured to be an entertaining, high-scoring game. Not anymore with word that Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett and Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III are not going to play.

Those two not playing completely changes the total.

Pickett passed for 4,319 yards and 42 TD's. Walker rushed for 1,636 yards and scored 18 TD's. They are the focal points of their team's offenses.

Michigan State gave up 25.7 points per game. The Spartans now will draw Pittsburgh backup QB Nick Patti, a massive drop for Pittsburgh. The Panthers also will be minus well-respected offensive coordinator Mark Whipple, who left for Nebraska. That's another huge hit for the Panthers' offense.

The Panthers held opponents to 23.1 points. Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi made his reputation as Michigan State's defensive coordinator before taking over at Pittsburgh. The Spartans are ground-oriented. Pittsburgh ranks sixth in the nation in run defense. Payton Thorne is a decent QB for Michigan State, but he's far from elite. He'll be facing a tough Panthers' defensive line.

Two slow-paced, grind-out, ground-oriented type teams with mediocre quarterbacks. That's what we have here in this Guaranteed Rate Bowl between West Virginia and Minnesota.

Given the matchup and circumstances, this game should be a dead nuts Under.

West Virginia ranks 93rd in tempo. The Mountaineers have a subpar offensive line and QB in Jarrett Doege. Their best running back is Leddie Brown, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored 13 TD's. Brown, though, opted out. Minnesota is extremely tough defensively ranking in the top 11 in the major defensive categories - points, yards, passing yards and rushing yards. Only three teams surrendered fewer yards per game than the Gophers.

Minnesota plays even slower than West Virginia. The Gophers lost their first two running backs. But that doesn't change their approach. They run nearly 70 percent of the time. Their quarterback, Tanner Morgan, has had a disappointing season. Minnesota ranked 115th in passing.

West Virginia ranks 33rd in run defense.

Nevada's outstanding passing attack is gutted with opt outs and transfers. The Wolf Pack will be minus star QB Carson Strong, tight end Cole Turner and wide receivers Romeo Doubs, Tory Horton, Melquan Stovall and Justin Lockhart. In addition, two of the Wolf Pack's starting offensive linemen won't be playing.

Take all of that firepower away and of course the Wolf Pack aren't left with much. Nevada is going to have to run the ball more than normal. The Wolf Pack ranked 129th in rushing averaging 2.9 yards a carry. Western MIchigan gave up the 29th fewest yards in the nation.

Unlike their offense, the Wolf Pack didn't suffer so many departures on defense. Nevada ranked a respectable 51st in scoring defense giving up 24.4 points a game. Western Michigan has been plagued by turnovers at times. Nevada ranked among the top 10 in turnovers.

Note this is an extremely early start, 8 a.m. West Coast time for Nevada, so that could lead to sluggish play.

The perceived thinking about this Armed Services Bowl pitting Missouri versus Army is this: Army's triple-option attack is going to run rough shot against a Tigers defense that ranked 125th out of 130 FBS teams in stopping the run and that the Tigers are going to put up their share of points having averaged nearly 30 points during the regular season.

I don't see either occurring. 

Army is strictly one-dimensional. The Cadets have no passing attack. They will be running the ball - eating clock - all game no matter what the score. Missouri's run defense is not as bad as its season statistics indicate. The Tigers greatly improved their rush defense down the stretch. They held South Carolina to 57 yards on the ground in 35 attempts three games ago and two games ago held Florida to 93 yards rushing on 33 carries for a 2.4 yard average. 

The Cadets may be flat, too, off a tremendously disappointing loss to arch-rival Navy in their last game. Army managed just 124 yards rushing against the Midshipmen on 33 carries, a 3.7-yard average. 

As for Missouri, its offense isn't nearly the same - nor effective - minus star all-purpose running back Tyler Badie. He produced 1,934 rushing and receiving yards while scoring 18 TD's. He opted out. The Tigers also are going to give Brady Cook his first career start instead of going with their regular quarterback, Connor Bazelak, who threw for 2,548 yards and 16 TD's during the regular season. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz was not pleased with Bazelak's performance in Missouri's last game hence the QB switch. 

Army ranks 15th in total defense and 36th in scoring defense giving up 22.3 points a game. 

His toe may hurt, but Aaron Rodgers is in MVP-form with a 10-to-zero TD-to-interception ratio in his last three games. The Packers are averaging 37.3 points during this span. Davante Adams has been at his masterful best during the last three games, too, with 25 receptions for 340 yards and four TD's. Rodgers and Adams face a Ravens secondary full of injuries.

Tyler Huntley proved himself last week if Lamar Jackson can't play. Huntley was 27-of-38 passing for 270 yards with one TD pass and no interceptions against the Browns after Jackson suffered an ankle injury early in the game.

Green Bay is surrendering 30.6 points in its last three games.

Special teams are another factor. The Ravens have the best special teams in the league, including the top kicker. The Packers are well below average in special teams coverage.

On the surface this total may seem correct since the Texans are averaging just nine points in their last three games, while the Jaguars are averaging 9.1 points during their last seven games.

But the dynamics have changed. I doubt we see the combined 58 points that these teams put together opening week when Houston beat Jacksonville, 37-21. I do see, though, enough points being produced to safely get this above the listed total.

The Texans have had enough of veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor. Rookie Davis Mills is auditioning for the starting quarterback role. The Texans want to see what they have in Mills so they want him to air it out. Mills threw a season-high 49 times for a career-high 331 yards against the Seahawks last week. Mills has a pair of quality wide receiver targets, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins.

Jacksonville ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 26.2 points a game.

I'm expecting the Jaguars' offense to become much better without Urban Meyer around to screw things up. Returning this week for the Jaguars is their center Brandon Linder, who was out with a back injury. James Robinson is expected to get a full workload - something Meyer should have done. This will make things easier for Trevor Lawrence, who also should come up big minus Meyer.

Houston has permitted 64 points during its last two games and are down key defenders due to injuries, sickness, or getting rid of.

Buffalo ranks first in total defense and third in scoring defense giving up 17.6 points a game. The Panthers have no passing game and their ground attack is greatly lessened with Christian McCaffrey out. The Panthers have become a full-fledged ground-and-pound team - excellent for Under the total - when they fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The Panthers are averaging fewer than 20 points a game.

Josh Allen isn't 100 percent because of a foot injury. He's taking on a Carolina defense that ranks No. 1 in pass defense and gives up the second-fewest yards per game. Allen has turned the ball over at least once in each of the last six games committing 10 turnovers during this span.

This is a December game in Buffalo so the weather is going to be cold. The forecast is for temperatures in the high 20's with 10 mph winds.

Louisiana Lafayette has a tremendous defense. The Cajuns supplement their defense by playing ball control on offense, mixing running plays with short, conservative passes from Levi Lewis. This was on full display in the Cajuns' 24-16 victory against Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. 

That pattern will be on display again against Marshall in this New Orleans Bowl resulting in another Under. 

The Cajuns rank 11th in scoring defense giving up 18.2 points a game, while forcing 21 turnovers. Marshall QB Grant Wells threw 12 interceptions in 12 games. Marshall finished the regular season minus 5 in takeaways/giveaways. 

The total is higher than I believe it should be partly because Marshall surrendered 53 points to Western Kentucky in its last game. Western Kentucky, though, is the second-highest scoring team in the country averaging 43.1 points. Before that game, the Thunder Herd had given up an average of 16 points during their past six games. 

Marshall finished 13th nationally in sacks with 38 and has a star linebacker in Abraham Beauplan.

Malik Willis gets all the attention when it comes to Liberty. But the Flames are very strong defensively. They rank fifth in pass defense, 11th in defensive total yards and 30th in scoring defense holding foes to 21.7 points a game. 

Eastern Michigan doesn't run the ball effectively. Instead the Eagles rely on QB Ben Bryant and a short passing attack. Bryant is facing a top-notch pass defense here and a tough pass rush playing behind an offensive line that has yielded 38 sacks. 

The Eagles should get their share of sacks, too, since Liberty surrendered 50 sacks. 

Note that this bowl game is being played in Mobile, Ala., and the weather forecast is calling for an 80 percent chance of rain with thundershowers and wind in the 5-to-10 mph range. That's a bad break for Willis and a plus for the Under. 

The Packers went into their bye last week after producing 36 points against the Rams. They should be fresh with a strong game plan and with the possible return of their best offensive lineman, David Bakhtiari.

Chicago's defense has been weakened by injuries to several players, including Khalil Mack, and sinking morale. The Bears have surrendered 29 or more points in four of their last six games. Their run defense ranks 23rd. The Bears will have to deal with the Packers' two-headed running back tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, while also having to contend with Aaron Rodgers, who has a history of picking apart Chicago.

The Bears are getting some of their injured offensive players back, including Allen Robinson and Justin Fields, who should be well prepared and have fresh legs having been out the last two games.

Weather shouldn't be a major hindrance with temperatures in the 20's, no snow and wind in the 10-15 mph range.

It didn't show against the Patriots this past Monday night because of the extreme weather conditions, but the Bills are vulnerable defensively against the pass minus their injured star cornerback Tre'Davious White. Tom Brady, who leads the NFL in passing yards and passing TD's, is sure to exploit White's replacement, Dane Jackson.

Tampa Bay has scored 30 or more points in more than half of its games. The Bills' defense is worse than perceived. Buffalo fattened its defensive numbers by going against a number of mediocre-to-bad QB's. The Bills gave up 41 points to the Colts and 34 to the Titans. Brady is much better than Carson Wentz and Ryan Tannehill. Brady also has a much deeper set of receiving targets than those QB's have.

The Bills have scored at least 31 points in seven of their 12 games. Both teams play at a very fast tempo, too. Unlike last week, weather won't be a hindrance for Josh Allen and Buffalo's offense.

Anyway you cut it, the Giants are going to be terrible at QB with a choice of injured Daniel Jones, immobile journeyman Mike Glennon, or fourth-stringer Jake Fromm, who was on Buffalo's practice squad last week behind three other QB's.

The Giants are not in sync with their new offensive coordinator, Freddie Kitchens. They have a bad offensive line, a battered wide receiving corps and Saquan Barkley remains unproductive nowhere near his elite status before he suffered a serious knee injury last year.

New York is averaging 14.4 points in its last five games. The Giants' offense looks much better on paper than it really is.

The Chargers are dealing with COVID-19 problems that have struck their two best wideouts, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

Unlike their offense, the Giants are better defensively than perceived, giving up an average of 16 points during their last six games.

The Texans have one of the all-time worst offenses regardless of who their QB is, Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills. Houston ranks last in points, yards and rushing yards. They are second-to-last in passing yards. The Texans are averaging 10.6 points in their last 10 games.

Seattle's defense has gotten much better. The Seahawks have surrendered 20 or fewer points during regulation in six of their last eight games.

The Seahawks' defense has accomplished this despite a weak offense that doesn't have any semblance of a ground attack. Russell Wilson is having a down year caused in part by a finger injury.

The Texans' defense usually plays hard. Prior to giving up 31 points to the Colts last week, the Texans had allowed an average of 17 points in its past three games.

Not only do the Patriots and Bills have the two best statistical defenses in the NFL, but there is a strong weather factor, too. Throw in this being a huge division game with two top-notch defensive coaches and you have all the right ingredients for an Under. 

New England is first in scoring defense holding foes to 15.8 points a game. Buffalo is next giving up 16.5 points. The Bills rank No. 1 in total defense. 
The weather forecast is frightful - rain, gusty winds in the 20-40 mph range and cold weather. In other words, Buffalo in December. 

Mac Jones hasn't experienced this type of weather. Bill Belichick is sure to have a sound defensive game plan for Josh Allen, who isn't having the big year he had last season. The Patriots are second in takeaways. 

When I see a total in this range on a Texans game, I have to think Under. Houston has the worst offense in the NFL ranking last in points, total yards and rushing yards. They are second-to-last in passing yards. The Texans' poor offensive numbers aren't completely attributable to rookie QB Davis Mills either. They've averaged 15 points and 221 total yards during their last three games since Tyrod Taylor came back. 

The Colts lead the league in takeaways with 26. The Colts have held five of their last nine opponents to 18 or fewer points. They beat the Texans, 31-3, in the first meeting. Indy is stepping way down in class after surrendering 38 points to the Buccaneers last Sunday. 

Houston is underrated defensively. The Texans rank 15th in pass defense and are in the top 10 in takeaways. They've held their last three foes to an average of 17 points. Safety Justin Reid, perhaps Houston's top defensive player, returns from suspension. 

The Under has cashed the last five times the teams have met in Houston. 

The Lions are a dead nuts Under team with their pop gun attack. Detroit hasn't reached 20 points since opening week. During their last 10 games, the Lions are averaging 14.1 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the Lions' last nine games.

D'Andre Swift is the Lions' lone explosive weapon - and he's not likely to play because of a shoulder injury that knocked him out of the Thanksgiving game.

Minnesota's defense has been a huge disappointment. Multiple injuries have played a role in this. However, Mike Zimmer is a top-notch defensive mind and his team shouldn't have problems holding the Lions' down, especially considering the mindset of Lions coach Dan Campbell, who wants his team to play low-scoring games.

The Vikings will be without their most dynamic player, Dalvin Cook. He's sidelined with a shoulder injury. That ensures a heavy workload for plodding Alexander Mattison, a North/South type runner good for the Under.

I see defense trumping offense here. Georgia is the top defensive team in the country both in fewest yards and points per game. Only once has Georgia allowed more than 13 points and that was giving up 17 to Tennessee in a 34-point victory when the Volunteers scored a late TD during garbage time.

 Alabama has had issues protecting Bryce Young. He's been sacked 33 times, including getting sacked seven times by Auburn in the Crimson Tide's last game. 
The Crimson Tide surrender fewer than 20 points per game. They rank No. 3 in run defense and seventh in total defense. Georgia relies on its ground attack. The Bulldogs rank 60th in passing.