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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-28-21	Bucs v. Colts UNDER 53.5		38-31	Loss	-110	48 h 47 m	Show
The marketplace is betting this game up. I understand Jonathan Taylor is the hottest running back in the NFL and Tom Brady leads the league with 29 TD passes. I just disagree with the move. There are key elements that are not being fully accounted for such as the Buccaneers having the No. 1 run defense in the league giving up 78.4 yards on the ground. The Buccaneers are healthier on defense, too. Cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting is off the injured list. There's a strong chance cornerback Carlton Davis and nose guard Vita Vea play, too, after being out. I regard Tampa Bay's linebackers as among the best if not the best. I don't trust Carson Wentz if Taylor isn't able to do the heavy lifting. The Colts also could be without their best offensive lineman as stud guard Quenton Nelson is questionable with an ankle injury. The Colts rank 11th in scoring defense. They are the best in taking the ball away forcing a league-high 24 turnovers. Indy has forced at least one turnover in 12 consecutive games. These defenses are not being given enough credit.
11-27-21	Northwestern v. Illinois UNDER 45		14-47	Loss	-110	21 h 0 m	Show
Neither Northwestern nor Illinois are going to bowl games. So this is their bowl game in this rivalry matchup. Both teams are run-oriented with bad passing attacks. So expect a lot of running with the clock moving. The weather forecast is favorable to lots of run plays, too, with a chance of rain and wind in the 10-20 mph range. The Wildcats rank second-to-last in the nation in scoring at 16.8 points. They haven't broken the 14-point barrier during their last five games, all against Big Ten teams. Andrew Marty is the Wildcats' fourth starting QB this season. He's thrown six interceptions during his four-game starting career while being sacked 10 times. Illinois isn't any better ranking 118th in total offense and 122nd in scoring offense averaging 17.7 points. The defenses are mediocre. Mediocrity trumps bad, though.
11-27-21	Louisiana Tech v. Rice OVER 52.5		31-35	Win	100	40 h 14 m	Show
Two bad Conference USA teams with similar horrendous defense should translate to a higher-scoring game than this total. How bad are these defenses? Louisiana Tech is giving up 37.4 points in its last five games. The Bulldogs rank 103rd in defensive total yards, 116th in pass defense. Rice allows 36.6 points a game. Only four Division I teams give up more points per game. The Owls also are 105th in defensive total yards, 117th in pass defense.
11-26-21	UNLV v. Air Force UNDER 50.5	Top	14-48	Loss	-110	26 h 3 m	Show
Air Force gives up 19.5 points per game. UNLV averages 20.4 points. So don't expect the Rebels to produce many points here. They have a good running back, Charles Williams, and that's about it to their offense. Their QB's are inexperienced and not good downfield passers. UNLV's offensive line has permitted 36 sacks. Only five teams give up fewer yards per game than the Falcons. UNLV doesn't have a good defense either. But the Rebels are decent in one defensive area - stopping the run where they ranked 50th in the country. Air Force is an option team that runs the ball nearly 88 percent of the time. That's going to eat clock. Both teams are among the bottom-six in terms of tempo, too. So the pace should be extremely slow.
11-21-21	Steelers v. Chargers OVER 47.5		37-41	Win	100	32 h 19 m	Show
Now that Ben Roethlisberger has cleared COVID-19 protocols, I feel confident playing this game Over the total. The Chargers have an above average offense and an elite QB in Justin Herbert. The Chargers catch a major break in that Pittsburgh is going to be without it's best pass rusher, best safety and top cornerback as T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden have all been ruled out. The Steelers aren't the same minus the dominant Watt, perhaps the best pass rusher in the NFL, and the dynamic ballhawk Fitzpatrick. The Steelers are thin at linebacker, too, after trading Melvin Ingram to the Chiefs earlier this month. The Chargers are averaging 29.7 points in their past four home games. The weather will be perfect here. I expect the Steelers to contribute their fair share of points. LA ranks last in run defense. Najee Harris is the sixth-leading rusher in the NFL. Pittsburgh's young offensive line has been showing improvement. If the Chargers stack the line to key on Harris, Rothelisberger is savvy enough to hurt LA with play-action. It's a plus for Pittsburgh that big-play wideout Chase Claypool is expected to play.
11-21-21	Texans v. Titans OVER 44.5		22-13	Loss	-107	23 h 49 m	Show
The Texans have the worst offense in the NFL ranking last in points and yards per game. They are averaging a mind-boggling 4.2 points in their last four road games. Tyrod Taylor upgrades Houston's offense. But only slightly. He's far better than overmatched rookie Davis Mills, but he's still Tyrod Taylor - a conservative journeyman better at running the ball than completing downfield passes. The Titans have excellent season numbers. However, those numbers are out of context now with Derrick Henry and Julio Jones both out. The Titans have run the ball 55 times in their last two games minus Henry. They've gained 135 yards, an average of 67.5 yards per game. That's their lowest two-game rushing total of the season. No Jones means the Texans can fully concentrate their pass defense on A.J. Brown, who is the Titans' only above average wideout. Both teams have protection problems. The Titans have given up 29 sacks, the Texans 26 sacks. Tennessee's defense is much improved with defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and linebacker Harold Landry playing at star levels.
11-20-21	Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 50		20-10	Win	100	118 h 22 m	Show
Dave Aranda has long been known as a defensive whiz at Utah State and Wisconsin before going to LSU and now Baylor. The Bears have shown steady defensive improvement under Aranda. They just held Oklahoma to a season-low 14 points. Kansas State is a far drop from Oklahoma offensively. The Wildcats rank 92nd in total yards. But like Baylor, Kansas State has come on defensively giving up 24, 12, 10 and 17 points in its last four games, all versus Big 12 schools. Both teams rank in the top-four defensively in the Big 12. Both teams are run-oriented and play at a slow pace. The Bears rank 108th in tempo, while Kansas State is 128th in pace. The Under has cashed the last four times the teams have played at Kansas State.
11-20-21	Florida State v. Boston College OVER 54.5		26-23	Loss	-110	24 h 35 m	Show
Florida State is playing better. The Seminoles just scored 31 points against Miami last week. Jordan Travis is back at QB for the Seminoles and he had a big game against the Hurricanes. Boston College just put up 41 points on Georgia Tech last week. The Eagles are a much more dangerous team now that pro prospect Phil Jurkovec is back from injury. He's one of the better QB's in the country. Jurkovec should put up strong numbers against a Seminoles secondary that ranks 88th in pass defense. The teams last met two seasons ago and there were 69 points scored in Florida State's 38-31 victory.
11-18-21	Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 47	Top	25-0	Win	100	18 h 35 m	Show
The Falcons have much to prove after scoring just three points in a 40-point loss to the Cowboys last Sunday. Matt Ryan had a passer rating of 21.4 in that game, lowest of his career. It's probably a given the Falcons are going to come out motivated for this Thursday night home game. It's far from a given, though, that they score far more points than last week. New England has an elite defense. Dallas doesn't. The Patriots are giving up the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 17.7. That number shrinks to 12.5 if you go by the last four games. Atlanta's problems aren't fully on Ryan. Minus traded Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, who will be missing his fourth straight game to deal with mental health issues, the Falcons are down to just two explosive players, Cordarrelle Patterson and tight end Kyle Pitts. Patterson is dealing with an ankle injury. So he may be out, too. Given Mike Davis' ineffectiveness this season, the Falcons' primary running back could be journeyman Wayne Gallman. That leaves Pitts as a lone force and Bill Belichick is a master at taking away his opponent's most potent weapon. The Falcons won't even have the luxury of playing a second good pass-catching tight end because Hayden Hurst is out with an ankle injury. This isn't the decent Falcons' attack spearheaded by Ryan we're used to seeing. Way too many missing parts. Ryan is going to have to be conservative because of that. The Patriots have 14 interceptions. That's tied for the second-most in the league. The Patriots are far from explosive themselves. Take away their two victories against the Jets and last week's blowout of the Browns and the Patriots are averaging 21.5 points in their seven other games. New England is a run-oriented, ground-and-pound team. Rookie QB Mac Jones has proven accurate, but he's not a big downfield thrower and his wide receiving corps is below average. It's tough for a road team to win when playing on a short week especially facing a non-conference opponent. The last time these teams met was 2017. The short week limits the Patriots' game-planning and chance to be creative on offense. They'll do what they do best - run the ball, play for field position and rely on their defense. That's a good formula for the Under.
11-17-21	Central Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 59.5	Top	37-17	Win	100	21 h 15 m	Show
Considering the weather forecast for Muncie, Ind., the total on this game is too high. There's a 90 percent chance of rain with winds in the 10-to-20 mph range. That's going to hurt the passing attack of both teams and means more running plays. Central Michigan ranks a respectable 56th versus the run. Ball State is a bend-but-not-break type of defense. You can move the ball on the Cardinals, but they don't give up many explosive plays. The Under has cashed the last six times Ball State has played at home.
11-14-21	Panthers v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5		34-10	Win	100	90 h 41 m	Show
Christian McCaffrey's return isn't nearly enough to give any explosiveness to a Carolina offense that has just one opening week offensive line starter playing his original position and must turn to inaccurate backup QB P.J. Walker, who has a 1-to-5 touchdown-to-interception career ratio. This will be only Walker's second career NFL start. Kyler Murray's MVP-caliber season is the big story in Arizona. But right next to it should be the tremendous strides its defense has made. The Cardinals have surrendered the third fewest points per game and fourth fewest yards. The Cardinals may hold their two big weapons, Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, out a second straight game playing such a punchless opponent and coming off a 31-17 victory against the 49ers behind Colt McCoy and James Conner. McCoy is a game manager. Conner is a North/South runner due for a heavy load with Chase Edmonds out with an ankle injury. The Panthers' strength is their young, talented defense.
11-14-21	Vikings v. Chargers OVER 53		27-20	Loss	-110	90 h 31 m	Show
OK, I'll join the rest of the world in going Over this total. It's still likely to go higher, too. A number of veteran Vikings defensive players are having bad seasons and now injuries and COVID have hit. Danielle Hunter and Patrick Peterson are definitely out. Hunter is Minnesota's most dominant lineman and Peterson their top cornerback. Justin Herbert has the talent and weapons to take advantage. Discount a bad game against the Ravens and the Chargers are averaging 31.2 points in their last five games. The Chargers' defense has some standout talent - Joey Bosa and Derwin James quickly come to mind - but they are overrated as a whole. LA has surrendered an average of 31.7 points in its last four games. That was going against the Browns, Ravens, Patriots and Eagles. The Vikings' offense is at least the equal of those teams. Dalvin Cook is the best all-purpose back the Chargers have seen all season. Justin Jefferson the second-best wide receiver. Kirk Cousins has been rightly criticized for being too conservative. Even a stone age coach like Mike Zimmer realizes his offense has to open up more especially with their third down passing game.
11-13-21	Nevada v. San Diego State OVER 45		21-23	Loss	-110	28 h 42 m	Show
Granted San Diego State is the best defense Nevada has seen all season. But the Wolf Pack are going to get their share of points with QB Carson Strong and his strong group of receiving targets. Nevada is averaging 40 points in its last six games. The Wolf Pack lead the Mountain West Conference in scoring at 36.4 points. Strong is fourth in the nation in passing yards with 3,197 yards. He's completed 70.5 percent of his passes. San Diego State is going to hold up its end of the bargain, too, in getting this total Over. The Aztecs are a top-40 rushing team. Lucas Johnson is an upgrade for them at QB replacing Jordon Brookshire. The Wolf Pack rank 102nd in pass defense. So they can't stack the line to key on the run without being vulnerable in their already weak secondary.
11-13-21	NC State v. Wake Forest UNDER 66.5		42-45	Loss	-110	28 h 33 m	Show
Just because Wake Forest and North Carolina scored a combined 113 points in the Tar Heels' 58-55 win last week, doesn't mean the Demon Deacons are going to produce a ton of points this week. That was a deflating loss for them halting their unbeaten season and now they draw a tough defensive foe in North Carolina State. North Carolina managed just 23 points against Pittsburgh Thursday night. I expect Wake Forest's scoring will be down, too, from last week. North Carolina State ranks seventh in scoring defense giving up only 16 points a game. Only 17 teams give up fewer yards per game than the Wolfpack. North Carolina State hasn't topped 28 points in its last two games against Louisville and Florida State. Those are both below defenses.
11-13-21	South Alabama v. Appalachian State UNDER 52.5	Top	7-31	Win	100	23 h 53 m	Show
South Alabama is without its starting QB Jake Bentley, who is out with a knee injury. That puts more pressure on the Jaguars' ground attack, which hasn't been good. The Jaguars rank 96th in rushing. I don't expect South Alabama to score many points here. But the Jaguars do have a good defense. Only 16 teams give up fewer yards per game than South Alabama. The Jaguars are 21st in run defense. Appalachian State runs nearly 60 percent of the time. The Mountaineers will be content to run clock not taking chances against this weak foe, especially considering the weather forecast. Heavy winds in the 16-28 mph range are being forecast. This is a huge plus for the Under.
11-08-21	Bears v. Steelers OVER 38.5	Top	27-29	Win	100	34 h 56 m	Show
The Bears hosted the 49ers last week. The total was less than 41. There were 55 points scored. This week the Bears' total for their road game against the Steelers is less than 40. Those kinds of totals are just plain too low in today's NFL where everything is skewed in favor of the offense. Unless you have two horrible offenses and two dominant defenses, it's difficult for an NFL total to go Under this low of a total. And that's not the case for Monday's matchup. Chicago's defense is worse than perceived. Minus Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson, the Bears surrendered 33 points to a middle-of-the-road type 49ers offense. Chicago couldn't record a sack without Mack, nor come up with a takeaway minus Jackson. The 49ers scored on seven consecutive possessions. They never had to punt. Mack is out again and I don't expect Jackson to play either. The Steelers' youthful offensive line is beginning to jell as the season reaches the half-way point. Najee Harris has benefitted averaging 130 scrimmage yards during the last three games. He was the AFC Rookie of the Month for October. Given a ground game to fall back on, Ben Roethlisberger can pick his spots. He has good targets in Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and underrated tight end Pat Freiermuth. Harris is one of the better all-purpose backs. This total is so low because the Steelers just managed 15 points against the Browns last week. Pittsburgh averaged 25 points in its previous two games, which were both non-division matchups like this one. It's mainly so low, though, because the Bears rank last in total yards and passing yards. They are 31st in scoring. Justin Fields is a work-in-progress. But he's off his best game. Fields is dangerous because he has tremendous mobility and can make big plays. He has good receivers, too, and there's the strong possibility running back David Montgomery returns from his knee injury here. Montgomery is a North-South runner, which isn't good for an Under. But he can keep Fields out of second-and-long situations. Chris Boswell returned to practice so Pittsburgh should have its kicker. No problems with weather either.
11-07-21	Titans v. Rams OVER 52.5		28-16	Loss	-107	35 h 38 m	Show
The Rams are a top-five offense averaging more than 30 points and 400 total yards. Matthew Stafford is putting up MVP numbers and Cooper Kupp has been the best wide receiver in the NFL. Tennessee has a below average defense. The Titans aren't going to be able to stop the Rams. Tennessee's game plan of keeping the ball away from Stafford and Co. is out the window with Derrick Henry out. So the Titans are now forced to keep up with the Rams matching them score for score. They will have to throw to do that. Ryan Tannehill does have the explosive wide receiving weapons to accomplish this. Jeremy McNichols will become a bigger part of the game plan. He's the Titans' second-leading receiver catching passes out of the backfield. Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing has had a full week to alter his standard game plan knowing Henry won't be available. The Rams picked up Von Miller, which should help their pass rush. But I don't see this happening right away. Miller isn't 100 percent and is past his prime. The Rams could experience some cultural shock having played the Lions, Giants and Texans during their last three games. Now they're playing a real offense.
11-07-21	Chargers v. Eagles OVER 49.5		27-24	Win	100	41 h 46 m	Show
This is a matchup where each team's offensive strength fits the opposing team's defensive weakness. Factor in tempo and that Jerome Boger's crew will be the officials and you have a strong Over the total play. Justin Herbert has a healthy wide receiving group. The Eagles aren't deep in the secondary. Austin Ekeler is one of the better all-purpose running backs in the NFL. He has more than 300 receiving yards and averages 5.0 yards a run. The Chargers rank No. 2 in the NFL in tempo. The Eagles ran for 236 yards against the Lions last week showing they have the running back depth to mitigate the loss of Miles Sanders. The Chargers are last in run defense giving up nearly 160 yards on the ground per game. Jalen Hurts is a dual threat QB and the Chargers have a cluster injury problem at cornerback with Asante Samuel and Michael Davis both out. So Hurts is in a great spot to succeed. The Eagles play at the sixth-fastest pace. The Over has cashed in better than 60 percent of Boger's lifetime games. That's a legitimate statistical number, too, because no other officiating crew calls so many defensive holding calls. It's a great break for Herbert to draw Boger and his flag wavers.
11-07-21	Broncos v. Cowboys OVER 48.5	Top	30-16	Loss	-108	21 h 25 m	Show
Dallas' defense is much improved. But it's far from an elite unit. Jerry Jeudy is back from an ankle injury. He's Denver's most consistent wide receiving threat. His presence opens the field for their other receivers, including the highly-talented Courtland Sutton. Teddy Bridgewater has completed better than 70 percent of his throws. Expect Bridgewater to be passing far more than usual as he'll need to keep up with Dak Prescott and an explosive Cowboys offense. The Broncos' defense looked good at the start of the season. However, they were playing weak offenses and that was before multiple injuries struck. Denver is without its two best inside linebackers, Josey Jewell and A.J. Johnson. That opens up the running game for Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Denver's pass rush is without Bradley Chubb and now the traded Von Miller. So Prescott should have time to pick his spots. The Cowboys' deep wide receiving corps is made even deeper with the expected return of Michael Gallup, who is talented enough to be a starter on some teams. The Broncos suffered another key defensive injury, losing Bryce Callahan. He was one of the best slot coverage defensive backs.
11-06-21	Oregon v. Washington UNDER 51		26-16	Win	100	34 h 34 m	Show
This is a bitter rivalry game as these teams recruit hard against each other. So I'm expecting an intense, defensive-minded game. Washington has the top pass defense in the country. The Huskies rank 17th in scoring defense holding foes to 18.9. They've held their past three opponents, all Pac-12 teams, to an average of 17.6 points. This is the game where the Ducks really could miss their best runner, CJ Verdell. He's out for the season. Oregon has intercepted 11 passes and features the No. 1 defensive lineman in the country, Kayvon Thibodeaux. He's being projected as the No. 1 pick in the draft. Rain and heavy wind are in the forecast, which are two more huge pluses for the Under.
11-06-21	Kansas State v. Kansas UNDER 57	Top	35-10	Win	100	96 h 11 m	Show
Don't expect many points in this in-state rivalry matchup. Not only are the offenses well below average, but so is the tempo. Both Kansas and Kansas State rank among the bottom 10 in pace. Kansas State ranks 93rd in total yards and 77th in scoring at 27.5 points. This is in the high-scoring Big 12 Conference, too. The Wildcats are much better defensively ranking in the top 50 in fewest yards and points allowed. They also have the 26th best rush defense, bad news for the Jayhawks. Kansas averages a puny 15.8 points a game. The Jayhawks rank 120th in total yards. They are averaging 11.7 points in their last four games - all versus Big 12 foes. The Jayhawks are terrible on defense, too. But surprisingly they don't give up that many explosive ways. Foes have to launch long drives to put up points on Kansas. This eats up clock. The Jayhaws should be their most fired-up against this opponent.
10-31-21	49ers v. Bears OVER 39.5		33-22	Win	100	15 h 33 m	Show
A lot has to go right defensively and on special teams for a total of less than 40 to go Under in today's NFL with so many rules skewed to offense. Justin Fields has been a disaster - so far. But this will be his sixth start. He has the legs and receiving talent with Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet to put up his share of points. The Bears have gone Under in their last six games, but they've never had a total of less than 40 this season. The 49ers have enough firepower to help this total get Over, too, especially since the Bears will be missing their best defensive player, star pass rusher Khalil Mack. He's out with a foot injury. Chicago ranks 23rd in run defense. The 49ers are ground-oriented. Jimmy Garoppolo is playing for his job. So he knows he has to come in with a good performance here.
10-30-21	Arizona v. USC UNDER 56		34-41	Loss	-110	28 h 52 m	Show
A game involving winless Arizona shouldn't have a total this high. The Wildcats rank 127th in scoring at a meager 14.3 points a game. The Under has cashed in Arizona's last three games, winning by an average of more than 10 points under the total. The Wildcats, though, haven't quit on defense. They held Washington to seven points in the fourth quarter last week before losing, 21-16. Mistake-prone USC is in disarray. The Trojans have an interim coach and morale issues. They are averaging 21 points their last two games, losses to Notre Dame and Utah. USC QB Kedon Slovis entered this season highly-rated. But Slovis has put up mediocre numbers with a 9-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio.
10-30-21	Southern Miss v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 48		10-35	Win	100	25 h 43 m	Show
Discount a 37-0 victory against Grambling, an FCS opponent, and Southern Mississippi hasn't scored more than 19 points all season. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 14.1 points. Southern Mississippi rushes for only 2.5 yards a carry and its QB's have combined to throw 11 interceptions and just seven TD's. The Golden Eagles are second to last in the nation in yards per play. Middle Tennessee State is tied with Iowa for the most takeaways with 20. The Golden Eagles, though, are better defensively. Their defensive numbers are skewed by giving up 63 points to Alabama. Middle Tennessee State ranks 104th in yards gained. Weather could factor here, too. Rain is expected with winds in the 12-20 mph range.
10-28-21	Packers v. Cardinals OVER 50	Top	24-21	Loss	-115	25 h 46 m	Show
The Cardinals rank fourth in the NFL in points scored per game at 32.1. That's legitimate with Kyler Murray having an MVP-type season. Arizona ranks first in the NFL in fewest points allowed per game at 16.3. That's not legitimate. Yes, the Cardinals' defense is much improved. But it's not the dominating unit that the statistics show. Arizona has permitted just 29 points in its last three games. Those matchups, though, were against the 49ers, Browns and Texans. The Cardinals faced two rookie quarterbacks during this span - Trey Lance in his starting debut and overmatched Davis Mills - along with a banged-up Baker Mayfield, who probably shouldn't have played against the Cardinals in what was one of his worst performances ever. Mayfield couldn't hit open receivers all game against Arizona. The Packers won't have Davonte Adams and Allen Lazard. If Marquez Valdes-Scantling has to miss a fifth straight game due to a hamstring injury, Green Bay will be without its three top wideouts. Normally this would create a huge problem. That problem isn't the mess the marketplace believes it is in driving the line up to a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers still has weapons. Green Bay has outstanding wide receiver depth. Rodgers has been great since Week 2 with 17 all purpose touchdowns and just one interception during his last six games. By the way, the Packers are 6-0 since 2019 in games Adams has missed. The Cardinals will get Chandler Jones back, but J.J. Watt won't play. I have complete confidence that Rodgers will put up his share of points helping this total go Over. Murray certainly is in line for another big game. Arizona has scored 30 or more points in every game except one. The Packers won't have their top cornerback, Jaire Alexander, nor their best pass rusher, Za'Darius Smith. They may not have their other starting cornerback, Kevin King, nor their third-best pass rusher, Preston Smith. Both missed last Sunday's game and are questionable here not helped by the short week. The Packers holding Washington to 10 points last Sunday is highly misleading. Washton marched up and down the field on Green Bay picking up 430 yards while averaging 6.1 yards per play. Taylor Heinicke just made too many goal line mistakes to take advantage. The Packers have allowed the second-most quarterback rushing yards. That bodes well for double-threat Murray.
10-25-21	Saints v. Seahawks UNDER 43	Top	13-10	Win	100	82 h 23 m	Show
The early forecast is for a high chance of rain - not exactly shocking for Seattle - with winds in the 10 mph range. That's not a plus for the Over. Nor is the quarterback matchup. Jameis Winston has been far more effective in his home games inside the New Orleans zone. Geno Smith is a backup. Both Winston and Smith are turnover-prone. Winston has been sacked nine times and picked off three times in three road games this season. The Saints are solid defensively both against the run and pass. The Saints entered this week ranked third in the metric DVOA, which is defense-adjusted value over average. The Seahawks' defense features middle linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Jamal Adams, two of the top players at their respective positions. The Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times the Seahawks have played an NFC opponent.
10-24-21	Lions v. Rams UNDER 50.5		19-28	Win	100	67 h 3 m	Show
I have been watching the NFL for nearly 60 years. Never have I seen a worse wide receiver group than what the Lions have with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, KhaDarel Hodge, Tom Kennedy and Geronimo Allison. Jalen Ramsey can catch up on his reading facing these guys. The Rams, of course, know Jared Goff well. They know his many weaknesses and lack of downfield passing. Detroit's one-time decent offensive line isn't very good anymore either because of injuries and rookie left tackle Penei Sewell's continued struggles. The result is the Lions have failed to score 17 points in their last five games, averaging 15.2 points during this span. They have scored one first half TD since Week 2. The Lions lack talent on defense, too. But they play hard for Dan Campbell. Until getting clobbered by the Bengals, 34-11, this past Sunday the Lions held their previous three foes - Ravens, Bears and Vikings - to an average of 20.6 points. Detroit should be motivated to perform better defensively after getting lit up by the Bengals. Matthew Stafford can produce big points, but Sean McVay has no reason to reveal any trick plays, or new wrinkles against such a weak road foe. If a blowout is occurring, McVay might even pull Stafford and the rest of his offensive starters. The oddsmaker still hasn't quite caught up to the Lions when it comes to totals. The Under has cashed in Detroit's last four games. The Lions have gone Under the total by an average of nearly 11 points a game during their past four games.
10-24-21	Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 46.5		41-17	Loss	-105	64 h 4 m	Show
I was having some doubt about the Ravens' defense - until this past Sunday. The Ravens got back to their effective blitzing ways and held Justin Herbert and his high-powered Chargers attack to a mesley six points. The Ravens held the Bengals to a combined six points last season. Zac Taylor is 0-4 versus Baltimore. I have far more confidence in the Ravens' defense and psychological edge than I do in the Bengals' promising offense and improved-but-still-vulnerable offensive line. I'm far more convinced about Cincinnati's improvement on defense. The Bengals rank fifth in scoring defense and give up the eighth-fewest yards per game. They can hold up at the point of attack against Baltimore especially with the Ravens down to a bunch of back-up, or over-the-hill, running backs. Cincinnati has held their last five opponents to an average of 16.8 points. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-quality season. However, he's mostly gone against weak-to-mediocre defenses. The Bengals are the best defense he's seen.
10-24-21	Falcons v. Dolphins OVER 47.5		30-28	Win	100	64 h 2 m	Show
There's some below-the-radar stuff that lends this matchup to a sneaky Over play. Let's start with the Falcons. Matt Ryan has picked up Arthur Smith's offense and picked up his game. He's completed 71 percent of his passes the last four games throwing 10 TD's during this span. Smith, an offensive guru, has had two weeks to game plan with the Falcons being idle last week. Star wide receiver Calvin Ridley is back. Kyle Pitts had his coming out party during the Falcons' last game, catching nine passes for 119 yards and a TD in a 27-20 win against the Jets. The Dolphins' secondary hasn't lived up to expectations with star cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones both being out. They are questionable for this game. Miami ranks in the bottom-four in points given up, yards allowed and pass defense. The Falcons rank in the top 10, too, in pace. Now the Dolphins. Miami's season numbers are skewed because of Jacoby Brissett's substandard play when Tua Tagovailoa was out with injured ribs. Tagovailoa returned last week against the Jaguars and threw for 351 yards and two TD's. He's a clear upgrade on Brissett. Tagovailoa has upgraded wide receiving weapons from a year ago and won't lack motivation to prove himself with Deshaun Watson rumors again floating around. The Dolphins play at the sixth-fasted pace, too. Miami's biggest weakness is its offensive line. Atlanta, though, lacks a pass rush. The Falcons surrender the second-most points per game at 29.6 and have only three takeaways.
10-23-21	Oklahoma State v. Iowa State UNDER 47.5		21-24	Win	100	17 h 15 m	Show
Don't be fooled by some of the skill position stars such as Breece Hall, Jaylen Warren and Tay Martin. Defense is going to dominate more than offense. Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12 surrendering 16.3 points and 251.3 yards. Oklahoma State will need to effectively run because its QB, Spencer Sanders, is such an inaccurate passer. The Cyclones rank 14th in rush defense holding foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Iowa State ranks 20th from the the bottom in tempo. The Cyclones play at a very leisurely pace. They are going to feed Hall the ball a lot. Oklahoma State ranks 15th in run defense. The Cowboys also hold foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Cowboys linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez leads the Big 12 in tackles.
10-23-21	Kent State v. Ohio OVER 65.5		34-27	Loss	-113	97 h 43 m	Show
These two MAC teams last played two seasons ago. There were 83 points scored. There could be that many points produced this time around, too. Kent State has a very good QB in Dustin Crum. The Golden Flashes' offensive statistics are skewed by the tough non-conference defenses they faced earlier in the season - Texas A&M, Maryland and Iowa. But since MAC play began, the Golden Flashes are averaging 35.3 points in their three conference games. A big thing about Kent State is it plays at the second fastest tempo in the country. Ohio gives up 30.7 points. The Bobcats rank 99th in yards allowed. The 1-6 Bobcats are bad. But they do one thing right - run the ball. Their QB, Armani Rogers, is a running quarterback. Only 31 teams average more yards on the ground than Ohio. Kent State ranks 121st in rush defense. So the Bobcats should be able to contribute their share of points. (Update: I put this play out early in the week anticipating the total would climb, which it has. Even though the line value is gone now, the handicap still holds. I expect there will be 70 or more combined points scored.)
10-17-21	Cardinals v. Browns UNDER 50.5	Top	37-14	Loss	-110	120 h 55 m	Show
The Browns' defense isn't elite, but they are much better than how they looked last week in giving up 47 points to a hot Justin Herbert and Chargers' offense. Cleveland had surrendered just 33 combined points in its previous three games. Kyler Murray took a beating against the 49ers last week. The Cardinals are heading into a different climate away from their desert. The forecast is for wind in the 20-to-30 mph range. Neither team plays fast. The Browns are heavily run-oriented. They rank 29th in pace. The Cardinals are in the bottom nine in tempo.
10-17-21	Bengals v. Lions UNDER 47.5		34-11	Win	100	67 h 38 m	Show
The Bengals are much improved defensively. They held the Packers to 22 points during regulation last week and have surrendered an average of 18.2 points during their last four games. Cincinnati gets to step way down in class to face the punchless Lions. Detroit didn't have much going - and that was before getting struck with massive injuries. Frank Ragnow, a very good center, is out. So is Quintez Cephus, who had emerged as Detroit's top wide receiver. Tyrell Williams, maybe Detroit's second best wideout, is out, too. Not helping matters are the struggles of rookie left tackle Penei Sewell. The result has been Jared Goff averaging an embarrassing 6.6 yards pass attempt, while continuing to show off his inaccuracy and lack of any big-play ability. Goff isn't helped by having the worst wide receiving corps in the NFL. Detroit is averaging 16.2 points in its last four games. The Lions reflect their coach, blue collar Dan Campbell. They are grinders. Their defense doesn't have any playmakers, but can be counted on to provide a strong effort reflective of their coach. Detroit has held its last three foes - Ravens, Bears and Vikings - to 20.6 points a game. That figure would be even lower but the Ravens and Vikings kicked long field goals at the gun to take away two wins from the Lions. The Bengals have a below average offensive line and skill position injuries. Joe Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury. His backup, Samaje Perine, is on the COVID list. Joe Burrow is playing on a surgically repaired left knee and was having trouble talking after getting hit in the throat last week.
10-17-21	Packers v. Bears UNDER 44.5		24-14	Win	100	66 h 24 m	Show
So far the Packers aren't the offensive powerhouse of a year ago. Left tackle David Bakhitari remains out and Elgton Jenkins, Green Bay's second best offensive lineman and most versatile, is questionable having missed the past couple of games. The Bears have shown a resurgency on defense. Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn are putting forth a strong pass rush and veteran linebacker Danny Trevathan is back playing, bolstering a strong crew. Chicago ranks eighth in fewest points and yards allowed. The Packers have been getting A.J. Dillon more involved in the offense. That's a plus for the Under as Dillon is a plodding north/south runner who keeps the clock moving with little threat of breaking off a big run. The Bears have become ultra-conservative with Justin Fields after the Browns held them to only 47 yards. Fields is averaging fewer than 20 throws and only three rushing attempts during his last three games. David Montgomery and Allen Robinson are the Bears' two best weapons. Montgomery is out with a knee injury and the Andy Dalton/Fields quarterback situation has rendered Robinson nearly a non-entity. He hasn't had more than 63 receiving yards in his last seven games, nor has he scored a TD.
10-16-21	Alabama v. Mississippi State OVER 57.5	Top	49-9	Win	100	26 h 16 m	Show
Alabama put up 41 points on Mississippi State last year. The Crimson Tide are in the mood to run up a score after getting upset, 41-38, by Texas A&M last week. The Crimson Tide average 44.3 points per game. Only five teams score more per game. Not surprisingly, Mississippi State is all about passing under Mike Leach. The Bulldogs rank fifth in the nation in passing yards. Zach Calzada burned Alabama for nearly 300 passing yards and 3 TD throws last week. Mississippi State QB Will Rogers is the second-most accurate passer in the country connecting on 75.7 percent of his throws. Rogers has thrown for 1,862 yards with a 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. So the Bulldogs should put up their share of points.
10-16-21	Vanderbilt v. South Carolina UNDER 51.5		20-21	Win	100	16 h 8 m	Show
These teams don't have strong defenses, but their offenses are terrible. Vanderbilt is last in the nation in scoring averaging 13.3 points in its six games. The Commodores are 121st in yards per game at 310.7. South Carolina ranks 108th in scoring at 22 points and is 112th in yards at 335. The Gamecocks also play at a very slow tempo. Vanderbilt passes more than South Carolina. However, the Gamecocks' defense strength is their secondary. They rank 12th in pass defense. Weather could factor, too, as there is a wind and a chance of rain.
10-16-21	Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 57.5		26-27	Win	100	56 h 5 m	Show
Ohio has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Bobcats average just 19.3 points. They rank 119th in passing yards. The Bobcats are a running team, which eats clock. Buffalo ranks 95th in passing. The Bulls also like to run a lot. The Bulls' offense numbers are skewed because they opened the season scoring 69 points against Wagner, a non-Division I school. Another big key to the Under is weather. The forecast in Buffalo is for rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-35 mph range.
10-10-21	Browns v. Chargers OVER 46.5		42-47	Win	100	90 h 36 m	Show
The Browns' strength is running the ball with their great 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Cleveland ranks first in rushing averaging 177 yards on the ground. The Chargers rank 29th in run defense and lost inside linebacker Kenneth Murray and defensive tackle Justin Jones to injuries further eroding their rush defense. The Chargers' strength is passing. Justin Herbert can hurt a Cleveland secondary. Herbert is hot with a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. The Browns' defense is improved, but they've been fortunate to go against weak offensive lines in their last three games facing the Texans, Bears and Vikings. This is a clear-cut case of strength versus strength and the total is low enough to get involved.
10-10-21	Lions v. Vikings UNDER 49.5		17-19	Win	100	68 h 11 m	Show
The Under has cashed seven the last eight times in this series. I expect that trend to continue here given this NFC North Division rivalry and the Lions' offensive woes. The Lions are averaging 16 points during their last three games. They are going to be without perhaps their two best offensive linemen with left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow out with injuries. A third offensive line starter, Penei Sewell, isn't likely to play either for Detroit because of an ankle injury. Sparked by a rejuvenated Danielle Hunter, the Vikings are averaging 3.2 sacks per game. The Lions have discovered first-hand what Sean McVay knew that Jared Goff is merely a game manager. The Vikings' secondary can handle Goff and a Detroit wide receiving corps that is the worst in the league. Detroit doesn't have a good defense. But the Lions play hard for Dan Campbell - at least so far. The Vikings' offense becomes more ground-and-pound when Dalvin Cook isn't fully in the lineup, which he hasn't been for the past two games. He's been slowed by an ankle injury.
10-09-21	New Mexico State v. Nevada OVER 62.5	Top	28-55	Win	100	30 h 59 m	Show
Nevada averages more than 32 points a game and has one of the best QB's in the country, Carson Strong. New Mexico State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 115th in scoring defense giving up 34.2 points and 113th in yards allowed at 449.8. It's safe to expect Nevada to put up at least 40 points on the Aggies. The key here is getting enough scoring from New Mexico State. I see that happening. The Aggies are a passing team, averaging 43 throws per game. It's a short passing attack, but they are not run-oriented at all. The Aggies have averaged 30 points per game in their last four matchups facing San Jose State, Hawaii, South Carolina State and New Mexico. The weather should be fine with no rain and little wind.
10-09-21	Florida State v. North Carolina OVER 63.5		35-25	Loss	-110	66 h 53 m	Show
North Carolina is averaging 37.6 points and has a top-20 offense spearheaded by one of the best QB's in college football, Sam Howell. But what's scary about the Tar Heels is they still have room to improve offensively. That could come against Florida State, which gives up 31.4 points and ranks 103rd in pass defense. Howell is on a streak of four straight 300 passing yards games. The Tar Heels are big favorites here, but I expect Florida State to contribute its share of points. North Carolina has a below average defense. Seminoles QB Jordan Travis holds the school record for most career rushing yards. The Tar Heels rank 72nd in rush defense. Their defense has come up with only three takeaways.
10-09-21	Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47		34-10	Win	100	22 h 15 m	Show
Good luck to Bo Nix and Auburn's offense. They will need it here. Georgia is the No. 1 defensive team in the nation. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense giving up an insanely-low 4.6 points a game and are No. 1 in total yards and pass defense. Auburn has some good running backs. But the Bulldogs have the fourth-best run defense, too. Georgia is a running team. The Bulldogs probably are going to run even more than their 62 percent because their star QB, JT Daniels, isn't likely to play due to a back injury. The Bulldogs also play at a very slow tempo. Auburn ranks 15th in run defense giving up 90 yards on the ground and just 2.5 yards per carry.
10-07-21	Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5	Top	26-17	Win	100	26 h 2 m	Show
Even in today's NFL where the rules are greatly skewed toward offense, a lot has to go right for this many points to be scored. I don't see the Rams-Seahawks combining for this many points on a short week where game-planning is condensed. The Rams' defense appears down from last season. That's not a surprise. After all, they ranked No. 1 defensively last year and their star defensive coordinator, Brandon Stanley, is now the Chargers' head coach. Raheem Morris is LA's third defensive coordinator in three years. He's a downgrade from Stanley. Having said that, though, the Rams still had held their last 17 regular season opponents under 30 points until losing, 37-20, to the explosive Cardinals this past Sunday. The Rams have Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, arguably the best players at their respective positions. The Seahawks' mediocre offensive line has had a great degree of difficulty dealing with Donald. The teams met three times last season. The Rams held the Seahawks to an average of 15 points and 301 yards. Russell Wilson is putting together another fantastic season. Seattle, however, ranks 29th in third down yardage. Wilson has the second-highest sack rate on third down, too, behind only the Texans' overmatched rookie QB Davis Mills. So the Seahawks will have to do much of their damage on their first two downs. The Rams were held to a season-low 20 points against Arizona. LA's final TD came in garbage time, too. Darrell Henderson looked good after missing the previous week with a rib injury. Sean McVay realizes he may have abandoned his ground attack too early against the Cardinals. So the Rams could be running more than usual plus McVay wants to keep the ball out of Wilson's hands. That's a plus for the Under.
10-03-21	Lions v. Bears UNDER 42		14-24	Win	100	65 h 31 m	Show
The Bears defense, particularly Khalil Mack, is back playing at a high level. Chicago's defense should encounter little trouble from a Lions attack that has the worst wide receivers in the NFL and a mediocre QB in Jared Goff. The Lions are 0-3, but have shown tremendous effort under fiery Dan Campbell. If it weren't for a record 66-yard field goal by Justin Tucker, the Lions would have held the Ravens to 16 points. I doubt Andy Dalton is able to play this week. So Justin Fields is in line to make his second NFL start. He's not ready for that role yet as the Browns clearly showed last week holding Chicago to 47 yards on 42 plays. The Bears rank last in yards gained and are second-to-last in scoring.
10-02-21	Old Dominion v. UTEP OVER 48		21-28	Win	100	26 h 25 m	Show
This is a low total for a college game featuring two lower-scale defenses. Old Dominion gives up 32.3 points a game. UTEP yields nearly 25 points per game. The Monarchs can run the ball somewhat effectively. They also play at a fast tempo, which is a huge key. The perception with UTEP is that it can't produce points. That perception doesn't hold true anymore. The Miners actually have a couple of dangerous receiving weapons. Jacob Cowing averages 23.4 yards per catch, while Justin Garrett averages 17.4 7yards a reception. As a team, the Miners rank in the top 50 in yards per play.
10-02-21	Liberty v. UAB UNDER 50		36-12	Win	100	105 h 13 m	Show
Liberty draws attention because of Malik Willis, one of the best QB's in the country. But the Flames have one of the top defenses in the country, too, ranking 14th in fewest points and eighth in total yards. UAB couldn't step up in class when it played Georgia. The Blazers were blown out in that game. But playing foes at their level, the Blazers are very good. They have given up 27 points in their three other games. Both teams are run-oriented and play at a slow tempo. Liberty has pass protection issues that UAB can take advantage of.
10-02-21	Tulane v. East Carolina OVER 64		29-52	Win	100	91 h 13 m	Show
There are reasons why 11 of East Carolina's last 15 games have gone Over. The Pirates play up-tempo, have a good veteran QB in Holton Ahlers and a terrible defense that ranks 127th in yards allowed. Tulane also is far better on offense than defense. The Green Wave average 36.5 points, but surrender 37.3 points a game. This should be a fast-paced game where offenses totally dominate.
09-26-21	Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 44		28-31	Loss	-109	38 h 2 m	Show
The Dolphins just may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. It's a major reason why they rate last in scoring with just 17 points on the season and yards per play. I don't see Miami putting up many points against a Raiders defense that ranks No. 2 in quarterback hits and is going with backup Jacoby Brissett, who is not an accurate passer and holds the ball too long. This will be Brisset's first start in two years. Miami does have a strong defense. The Dolphins have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league and their defensive front ranks eighth in quarterback pressure. The Raiders have been one-dimensional on offense without the running of Josh Jacobs, who isn't likely to play again due to an ankle injury. The Raiders are down two of their starting offensive linemen. Derek Carr is likely to be throwing a lot of short passes. Carr needs to be careful because the Dolphins have produced at least one takeaway in 24 consecutive games, the longest streak in the NFL.
09-26-21	Saints v. Patriots UNDER 42.5		28-13	Win	100	35 h 59 m	Show
Drew Brees versus Tom Brady. Not anymore. Instead we have erratic Jameis Winston against rookie Mac Jones. Neither offensive line is playing well either. Sean Payton is going to take it easy with Winston knowing he's facing defensive guru Bill Belichick and a ball-hawking New England secondary. The Patriots have five takeaways in two games and have held opponents to under 300 yards a game. Belichick is keeping things ultra conservative for Jones, who lacks explosive weapons. The Saints are stout against the run and their secondary is bolstered by the return of their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore.
09-25-21	Arkansas State v. Tulsa OVER 62.5		34-41	Win	100	28 h 11 m	Show
Arkansas State gives up the most yards per play of any team in the country. Tulsa is stepping way down in class having played Ohio State and Oklahoma State in its last two games. The Golden Hurricane produced more than 500 yards against Ohio State and had 25 first downs. They are going to put up a lot of points on Arkansas State. But the Red Wolves are going to put up their share of points, too. They are a fast-paced team with two decent QB's and three excellent wide receivers. Arkansas State throws 62 percent of the time. Tulsa's defense is down from last year, no longer having superstar linebacker Zaven Collins.
09-25-21	Colorado State v. Iowa UNDER 44.5	Top	14-24	Win	100	30 h 27 m	Show
Colorado State has quarterback issues. The Rams rank 107th in scoring at 22 points a game. They are not going to dent Iowa's elite defense, which gives up the fourth-fewest points per game in the country. The Hawkeyes have accomplished this against respectable offenses, too, holding Iowa State to 17 points and Kent State to seven points during their last two games. The Rams also are going to be missing their most dangerous wide receiver, Dante Wright. He isn't expected to play because of a knee injury. Iowa lacks an explosive offense. The Hawkeyes are conservative and slow-paced. They play a grind-out style that keeps the clock moving. So it's not a fluke the Under has won 75 percent during the past 21 times Iowa has been a home favorite going 15-5-1.
09-23-21	Panthers v. Texans UNDER 44	Top	24-9	Win	100	77 h 30 m	Show
I'm expecting rookie QB Davis Mills to get the start for the Texans. That's certainly not a plus for Houston as Mills isn't nearly ready to start a regular season NFL game. The Panthers have a lot of young defensive talent with Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, Shaq Thompson and Haason Reddick. They dominated rookie Zach Wilson in Week 1 and made Jameis Winston look terrible this past Sunday. The Texans are going to go as basic as possible with Mills. This is a very winnable road game for the Panthers. So I don't envision Matt Ruhle doing anything fancy on offense. Sam Darnold is far from trustworthy at this early stage of his Carolina career. A conservative, defensive-minded contest should produce a total far below this total.
09-23-21	Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 56.5	Top	30-31	Win	100	77 h 32 m	Show
The oddsmaker opened this total too low given the quality of QB's and Marshall's overrated defense. The Thundering Herd averages 43.7 points while playing at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in total yards and No. 3 in passing yards behind Grant Wells. Appalachian State is an above average offensive team. Chase Brice has looked good under center for the Mountaineers and Camerun Peoples is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. The Mountaineers are going against a Marshall defense that isn't as good as people thought after the Thundering Herd surrendered 42 points to East Carolina.
09-20-21	Lions v. Packers OVER 48		17-35	Win	100	140 h 29 m	Show
This total opened short considering how weak the Lions are defensively and how potent the Packers' offense is. One flat performance to start the season by the Packers shouldn't negate that Green Bay led the NFL in scoring last year at 31.8 points. The Packers didn't play Aaron Rodgers and some of their key skill position players during preseason and the rustiness showed on opening week. The Packers have their skill position stars back and their offensive line remains above average. Rodgers should have no problem taking advantage of a Detroit defense full of holes. The Lions can't pressure the quarterback, nor cover very well. They also have slow linebackers. Green Bay should come close to covering this total itself. The Lions should contribute, too, to the total going Over. Green Bay's defense looked terrible opening week under new defensive coordinator Joe Barry. The Lions have a solid offensive line and two good running backs with D'Andre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams. T.J. Hockenson is emerging as a tight end force.
09-19-21	Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 54.5		35-36	Loss	-106	31 h 15 m	Show
This is a very big total. Certainly superstar QB's Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are capable of producing huge scores. But a lot has to go right to buck this large of a total. The Ravens run a lot. Even without their two top running backs, injured J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, their game plan is going to remain the same - stay on the ground to keep the ball away from the deadly Mahomes. The Ravens are ground-oriented. That's who they are. Lead running back Ty'son Williams is untested. Latavius Murray is a straight-ahead runner perfect for the Under. Recently signed veterans Le'Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman are both washed-up. The Chiefs' defense gets reinforced this week with the expected return of star safety Tyrann Mathieu and respected pass rusher Frank Clark. The Ravens' offensive line gave up a lot of pressures and three sacks against the Raiders last Monday. Chris Jones is an elite pass rusher who the Ravens have to game plan against. The Chiefs' have a new offensive line with three first-year starters. The strength of that line are veterans Orlando Brown Jr. and Joe Thuney. Brown and Thuney are better run blockers than pass protectors. So the Chiefs could be running more than usual especially if they build up a big lead.
09-19-21	Patriots v. Jets UNDER 42.5		25-6	Win	100	94 h 39 m	Show
The Jets averaged an NFL-low 15.2 points last year. They managed just 14 points against the Panthers opening week. New England has a better defense than Carolina and the Jets had their best offensive lineman, Mekhi Becton, against the Panthers. Becton was injured in that game and won't play here. The Jets still can't run the ball, nor protect their quarterback. Bill Belichick is a master defensive strategist. He is 9-1 the past 10 times when going against a rookie QB. This doesn't bode well for Zach Wilson. The Jets figure to have a simple game plan. The Patriots aren't going to do anything fancy either in rookie Mac Jones' first road game. So expect a lot of running and short passing. Neither team has a stud running back.
09-18-21	Oklahoma State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5		21-20	Win	100	26 h 50 m	Show
Oklahoma State and Boise State aren't the offensive powerhouses of past seasons. Yet the perception is there that they are. Oklahoma State has a banged-up wide receiver corps. The Cowboys' run-blocking hasn't been good. Boise State is averaging only 2.4 yards when it runs the ball. So the Broncos have trouble run-blocking, too. I'm also not sold on Hank Bachmneier as the next great Boise State QB. The weather can get tricky in Boise. That very well could be the case here as there's a chance of rain with winds in the 15-25 mph range.
09-18-21	Auburn v. Penn State UNDER 53		20-28	Win	100	24 h 21 m	Show
Seeing is believing. Auburn and Penn State have dominant defenses. Auburn has played a pair of lightweights, but still only gave up 10 points to Alabama State and Akron. The Tigers have the pass rushers in T.D. Moultry and Marquis Banks to harass Sean Clifford, who regressed last season. The Nittany Lions don't have the outstanding running back either of previous years. Likewise, Auburn isn't going to find things easy on offense operating against a tough Penn State defense that held its previous two opponents, Wisconsin and Ball State, to a combined 23 points. Auburn QB Bo Nixon has a history of playing worse on the road where he has more interceptions than touchdowns.
09-18-21	Virginia Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 50.5		21-27	Win	100	33 h 19 m	Show
Virginia Tech is showing signs of having one of the top defenses in the country. The Hokies held North Carolina and its superstar QB Sam Howell to 10 points and then held Middle Tennessee State to 14 points. The Hokies have permitted 703 yards combined, recorded nine sacks and have four interceptions. West Virginia is no slouch defensively either. The Mountaineers are tough against the run. Virginia Tech is run-oriented. The Hokies rank 88th in yards per play despite playing less than stellar defenses.
09-12-21	Bears v. Rams UNDER 46		14-34	Loss	-104	126 h 31 m	Show
The Bears don't have the dominant defense of several years ago. Still, their defense is respectable if not above average. Chicago's problem isn't defense. The Bears offense isn't going to show any life until they make the QB switch to rookie Justin Fields. Veteran Andy Dalton last was decent five years ago. So I don't see the Bears producing many points with Dalton and an offensive line that appears weaker than last season. Chicago is banking on 39-year-old Jason Peters bailing out its offensive line. There's a far greater chance of Aaron Donald, the premier defensive lineman in the NFC, causing huge problems. Allen Robinson is Chicago's lone strong weapon. Rams superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey should handle Robinson leaving over-the-hill Dalton devoid of skill position talent around him, which he needs to have for any success. The Bears and Rams have met each of the last three seasons. The scores were 24-10, 17-7 and 15-6. None came close to going Over. This one shouldn't either.
09-12-21	Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 44		17-16	Win	100	123 h 1 m	Show
There were a combined 32 and 34 points scored in the two meetings last season between these teams. Expect a similar low-scoring matchup this time, too. The Dolphins added some enticing big-play weapons, but are basically a conservative team as Tua Tagovalioa remains largely untested and untrustworthy in his second season for Miami to feature a wide open offense. The Dolphins will be without deep threat, Will Fuller, in this game. He's suspended. The Patriots have upgraded their defensive front seven, adding a lot of size and playmaking linebackers. Miami has a below-average offensive line. Bill Belichick is a master at defensive game-planning. He has had ample time to prepare for the inexperienced Tagovailoa. Dolphins coach Brian Flores, formerly an assistant under Belichick, knows this. New England is a run-first team starting a rookie QB, Mac Jones. The Patriots' offense lacks any explosion. So the Patriots are likely to be vanilla, too, relying on their defense and playing for field position. Miami has excellent cornerbacks. I highly doubt Jones tests them. Instead he'll be conservative going with the run and short passes.
09-12-21	Cardinals v. Titans OVER 52		38-13	Loss	-109	119 h 1 m	Show
Given their offensive prowess and weak defense, the Titans are going to be involved in a lot of shootouts this season. This should be one of them. The Cardinals averaged just a shade under 29 points during their first 10 games last season before Kyler Murray got banged-up. Murray is back healthy. The Cardinals' offensive line is improved and rookie Rondale Moore adds to Murray's weapons arsenal. The Titans not only have the reigning two-time rushing champion in Derrick Henry, but added Julio Jones to go with A.J. Brown, who I consider a top-seven wide receiver. The Cardinals are inexperienced and vulnerable at the cornerback spots. Ryan Tannehill should produce a big game against this vulnerable secondary.
09-11-21	Missouri v. Kentucky OVER 53.5		28-35	Win	100	122 h 50 m	Show
Good defense, mediocre run-oriented offense. That's been Kentucky's style and stereotype for years. It's different this year, though, and the oddsmaker hasn't fully caught on yet. The Wildcats' defense is down this season. Missouri has the offensive weapons to take advantage. Missouri doesn't have a good defense, though. The Wildcats are playing at a faster tempo under new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, a disciple of Sean McVay as an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Rams before coming to Kentucky. Coen has the reputation as an offensive whiz with an emphasis on passing. Will Levis is a much better passer than the Wildcats have previously had in recent seasons.
09-11-21	South Alabama v. Bowling Green UNDER 51.5		22-19	Win	100	118 h 8 m	Show
South Alabama held Southern Mississippi to seven points and 259 yards of offense in a 31-7 opening victory last week. Yes, Southern Mississippi is bad although Frank Gore Jr. is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. This defensive effort wasn't a fluke. The Jaguars' defense is improved under defensive-minded Kane Wommack, who did an excellent job as defensive coordinator at Indiana before coming to South Alabama. Bowling Green is better defensively than on offense. The Falcons have scored 36 points in their last four games, including six against Tennessee last week. That's an average of nine points per game. Both teams play at a slow pace, too.
09-11-21	Buffalo v. Nebraska OVER 54.5		3-28	Loss	-110	24 h 42 m	Show
I get that the opponents of these two teams were Wagner and Fordham last week. Still, both Buffalo and Nebraska's offenses looked great. I'm betting these offenses stay that way this week. I trust the offenses more than the defenses. The Bulls buried Wagner, 69-7, while Nebraska rolled past Fordham 52-7. Cornhuskers QB Adrian Martinez played one of his best games, while the Bulls showed they can still run the ball piling up 312 yards on the ground after superstar runner Jaret Patterson moved on to the pros.
09-06-21	Louisville v. Ole Miss UNDER 76	Top	24-43	Win	100	16 h 52 m	Show
The oddsmaker is envisioning a monster shootout with this large of a total. I understand the thinking. Both teams have excellent QB's and defenses that are not well respected. I just don't agree with that high-of-a-score thinking. I like Mississippi QB Matt Corral a lot. He's a likely first-round draft pick. Louisville, however, isn't that bad on defense. The Cardinals were fourth in the ACC in yards allowed and return seven starters from that unit. Corral doesn't have monster talent Elijah Moore anymore. He's with the Jets now. Mississippi's defense is much maligned. But when last spotted the Rebels were holding Indiana to 20 points in a 26-20 Outback Bowl victory. The Rebels are big in the trenches, have athletic linebackers and an experienced secondary. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is more dangerous as a runner. The Cardinals run more than they pass so that's going to eat clock. Cunningham lost his two best wide receivers from a year ago. The Rebels will be without Lane Kiffin, an aggressive, offensive-minded coach. He tested positive for COVID-19 and has to miss the game. I regard that as a plus for the Under.
09-04-21	Louisiana Tech v. Mississippi State OVER 52.5		34-35	Win	100	15 h 16 m	Show
Louisiana Tech lacks the necessary pass rush to bother Mike Leach's Air Raid offense. Mississippi State should put up plenty of points having a better grasp of Leach's aggressive style of attack. Bulldogs QB Will Rogers had a 69 percent completion rate last season, which was the second-highest in FBS history for a freshman. He'll be even better this season as will Mississippi State backed by a veteran wide receiving corps. Louisiana Tech will contribute its fair share to getting this total Over. Mississippi State gave up nearly 35 points per game last year. Louisiana Tech averaged nearly four TD's a game and fortified its offense with a number of transfers. Veteran Austin Kendall will be under center for Louisiana Tech. He learned his craft at Oklahoma where he backed up Baker Mayfield and then went to West Virginia where he passed for 2,153 yards and 14 TD's in 11 games.
09-04-21	Marshall v. Navy UNDER 47.5		49-7	Loss	-118	15 h 49 m	Show
Slow tempo, lots of running and strong defenses. That's a nice recipe for an Under, which should happen here. Only 11 teams had a slower pace than Navy last season. The Midshipmen, with their triple-option attack, are going to have problems producing many points against Marshall. The Thundering Herd led the nation in scoring defense last season. They gave up less than 100 yards rushing per game. Navy averaged 4.3 points during its final three games last year. Marshall plays slow, too, and lacks explosive weapons. Navy's defense came on strong last season surrendering only 14.3 points during its final three games.
08-28-21	Hawaii v. UCLA UNDER 68.5	Top	10-44	Win	100	100 h 49 m	Show
Both teams improved defensively last season and should be even better this year. Hawaii has all of its key defensive starters back and added three potential starting transfers, including two in the secondary. The Rainbow Warriors surrendered an average of 27.6 points a game, their lowest figure in seven years. UCLA's offense could get off to a slow start since QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson missed the first few fall practices. UCLA's defense gave up 30.7 points a game last season, down from the 34 points they allowed per game during the previous two seasons. The Bruins return 10 defensive starters. Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro is decent, but he's nothing great especially compared to previous star Rainbow Warrior QB's.
02-07-21	Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 56.5	Top	9-31	Win	100	182 h 31 m	Show
The Super Bowl is the one NFL game where public money outweighs sharp money. The public almost always bets Over especially on marquee matchups such as this one. The oddsmaker knows that. So I see value on the Under. Much is being made of the Buccaneers being the home team because the game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. But as far as the total is concerned that venue is a plus for the Under. It's an outdoor stadium with a grass field. So it's not a fast surface. The two teams met there this past Nov. 29 and the Chiefs won, 27-24, for a combined final score of 51 points. Patrick Mahomes is the most feared QB in football. Tyreek Hill is the most dangerous wideout. Travis Kelce the best tight end. I acknowledge all of that. But it's difficult to produce big points against a very good defense without a decent running attack. I don't see the Chiefs being able to run on Tampa Bay. No team could during the season. The Buccaneers had the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL. The return of star nose tackle Vita Vea has only strengthened that unit. Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't looked good after being out with hip and ankle injuries. Le'Veon Bell doesn't have much left and he missed the AFC title game due to a sore knee. This puts nearly the entire onus on Mahomes. He's being asked to put up four-to-five touchdowns - as you need TD's not field goals to get above this high of a total - with a lackluster ground attack, facing a strong defense and without his starting offensive tackles. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz was put on injured reserve in Week 11 and left tackle Eric Fisher suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury in the AFC title game. Mahomes was brilliant in the title game victory versus Buffalo. However, he was merely a mortal in his previous five games with an 8-to-5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio. Mahomes hasn't faced an insider linebacker duo the caliber of Lavonte David and Devin White. These guys can not only effectively blitz, but also cover well. The Buccaneers also have two tremendous edge pass rushers, Shaquill Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. Those two have combined for 45 1/2 sacks during the past two seasons. The Buccaneers have a solid secondary, too. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. showed star ability in his rookie season. Cornerback Carlton Davis shut down Michael Thomas and held Davonte Adams to 67 receiving yards during Tampa Bay's last two games. Todd Bowles is an elite defensive coordinator. He gave Aaron Rodgers more trouble than any other defensive coordinator this season. Bowles is aggressive, but also shrewd. The Buccaneers can pick their spots blitzing - which is dangerous against Mahomes - because Barrett and Pierre-Paul are such good pass rushers and the Chiefs are minus their two best offensive tackles. I envision the Buccaneers being conservative on offense using more running plays than expected. Both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are healthy. They are good players for Under bettors because they are inside runners who are more reliable than flashy. The Chiefs have a bend-but-don't-break defense. Many of their defensive statistics were below average. But they are above average in the category that matters most - points allowed. Only nine teams gave up fewer points per game than Kansas City, which allowed 22.6. Chris Jones and Frank Clark give the Chiefs two good pass rushers. Safety play is huge versus Tom Brady. Kansas City is covered there, too. The Chiefs are deep at safety. Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill are both excellent. Mathieu has the most interceptions of any safety during the past two years. Here are some prop bet recommendations. Obviously best to shop because numbers and prices vary. Most of these props are courtesy of the Westgate sports book. Under 10 1/2 Accepted Penalties Accepted offensive penalties were the lowest in the NFL since the modern 32-team era. There seems to be an unwritten mandate from the league to officials to cut back on penalties. Few penalties are likely going to be called in the Super Bowl. The league doesn't want their showcase game to be littered with yellow flags. There were just six penalties accessed in the NFC title game. Tampa Bay had only two. There were seven penalties marked off in the AFC championship game with Kansas City accounting for just three. During the 12 postseason games, there were 10 or fewer penalties in nine of the games. That's 75 percent. The Buccaneers had 12 penalties in their three playoffs games for an average of four. The Buccaneers were tied for 20th in penalties during the regular season. The Chiefs had the fourth-most penalties during the regular season. That's a big reason why this penalty total prop is at double-digits. However, the Chiefs had just three penalties marked against them in their AFC title win against Buffalo. You could see in the title games that official's were only calling obvious fouls. They were letting a lot of physical defensive play, such as holding and grabbing, go especially in the Buccaneers-Packers game. I don't see why that would change for the biggest game of them all. Cameron Brate Under 26 1/2 receiving yards Brate is a short-yardage, red zone target. I don't see Tom Brady looking for Brate outside the red zone when he has Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Leonard Fournette out of the backfield and fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski to throw to. This doesn't leave room for Brate. Tyrann Mathieu Over 4 1/2 assisted/solo tackles Mathieu is one of the most productive safeties and he figures to be plenty busy. He's a defensive centerpiece, similar in chess terms to a queen. I wouldn't be surprised if he had more than four solo tackles. When you add assists, it's a no-brainer for me. Ronald Jones Over 34 1/2 rushing yards I believe the Buccaneers are going to run more than some expect in order to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field for as long as possible. Leonard Fournette has the higher rushing Over/Under yardage figure, but Jones is Tampa Bay's best running back in my view. Jones had a breakthrough season rushing for 978 yards. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry, which was the eighth-highest in the league. Fournette is going to get carries, but so is Jones. Most Valuable Player I'd make a pizza wager on linebacker Devin White at 40-1. I like the Under so a lower-scoring game than expected and a Tampa Bay victory could put White in contention. I do a Rotisserie-style fantasy football league in which tackles and sacks are separate categories. So I can tell you White is just a tremendous talent since I've watched him closely. He piles up tackles and gets sacks, too. There is recent precedent for defensive players winning Super Bowl MVP honors. It's happened twice in the last seven seasons with Malcolm Smith doing it and Von Miller achieving the feat five seasons ago.
01-24-21	Bucs v. Packers OVER 51.5		31-26	Win	100	50 h 51 m	Show
I'm expecting a shootout. These team's offenses trump their defenses. Tampa Bay produced 38 points on the Packers in their Week 6 matchup - and its offense has gotten better and more diversified since then. Tom Brady has the savvy and weapons to take advantage of the Packers' inexperienced linebackers and lack of depth in the secondary. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette not only provide Brady with reliable short-yardage running backs, but they set him up well for play-action. Green Bay doesn't have enough quality defensive backs to handle Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski. The Packers also have extremely weak punt coverage so the Buccaneers should be operating in good field position. Not that the Buccaneers are going to be receiving many punts because I also see the Packers producing far more points than the 10 they managed in their 38-10 Week 6 loss to Tampa Bay. Green Bay led the NFL in scoring. That Week 6 game was the only time their offense was held in check. Aaron Rodgers is as great mentally as he is physically. The Packers have made many adjustments since that loss. Their offense is in peak form. The Buccaneers love to blitz. That's the signature of their aggressive defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Rodgers is a master at reading the blitz. It's actually good for Rodgers that he's played the Bucs this season. He'll know what to expect. Green Bay's offensive line is playing better since that game even without injured star left tackle David Bakhitari. Blitzing isn't going to hide the Buccaneers' warts in their secondary that Rodgers will expose. The Packers took apart the Rams' No. 1 defense last week. Green Bay's offense is too in sync to be slowed down at this late stage especially given the Hall of Fame form Rodgers is in now.
01-16-21	Ravens v. Bills OVER 50	Top	3-17	Loss	-110	113 h 17 m	Show
Lamar Jackson is back in MVP form. Josh Allen has become a top-five caliber quarterback. Offense is going to trump defense in this matchup. Baltimore closed the regular-season averaging 37 points and 430 yards of total offense during its last five games. Jackson accounted for 15 TD's and 1,200 yards of total offense with a 110.6 passer rating during this span. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. J.K. Dobbins and Jackson will be the two best runners on the field. Buffalo ranked 17th in run defense. The Bills gave up 472 yards to the Colts last week. Their defense was on the field for nearly 35 minutes. Buffalo was fortunate the Colts didn't produce more than 24 points. They were inches away from doing that. The Ravens average more points per game than the Colts. The last time the Bills faced a dual threat QB anywhere near the caliber of Jackson was against the Cardinals back in mid-November when Kyler Murray put up 32 points against them. Jackson is superior to Murray. It wouldn't surprise if the Bills defense melted down in the fourth quarter from constant pounding. The Ravens' defense was highly impressive in dispatching the Titans, 20-13, last week. Baltimore's defensive strengths matched up well to Tennessee. It also was the third time Baltimore and Tennessee had met in one calendar year. So the Ravens had a great deal of familiarity with the Titans. Baltimore is not so well acquainted with Buffalo. Allen isn't the inconsistent, inaccurate quarterback he was during his first two years in the league. He broke out in a major way during his third season accounting for 45 touchdowns while breaking many of Buffalo's team passing records. The Bills broke their franchise scoring record by 43 points producing 501 points. The Bills are the opposite of the Ravens in that they set up the run by passing - if they even want to bother running. The Ravens like to blitz. They put a lot of trust in their cornerbacks. Buffalo is a dangerous matchup for them because of Allen's tremendous mobility and receiving targets - Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown and emerging Gabriel Davis. Each of these wideouts brings something to the table. Diggs has been unstoppable this season. Beasley is a reliable move-the-chains target. Brown is a deep threat. Davis has caught six passes for 192 yards during the last two games. Buffalo weather in January can be tricky. But the forecast is calling for temperatures in the low 30s with 10-12 mph wind. So the weather shouldn't be a hindrance to the total.
01-09-21	Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 45	Top	31-23	Loss	-115	54 h 56 m	Show
Alex Smith and Ron Rivera are great stories. This doesn't hide the fact, though, Washington is one of the worst offensive teams ever to make the playoffs. Washington hasn't broken the 23-point barrier during its last seven games. Only two teams averaged fewer yards per game than Washington, which is averaging 16 points the past three weeks. Until throwing two TD passes against the Eagles this past Sunday night, Smith hadn't thrown more than 1 TD pass in a game all season. Smith is a heady veteran. But he is and always has been a game manager. He also is limited by a calf injury so his mobility - one of the few pluses to his game - is going to be restricted. It's enough of a concern that Rivera has said Taylor Heinicke could see some action. Heinicke is a fourth-stringer who shouldn't even be on an NFL roster. Smith has always needed weapons around him. Washington doesn't have many. Its two best are WR Terry McLaurin, who is fighting through a high ankle sprain, and RB Antonio Gibson, who isn't 100 percent due to a toe injury. Tampa Bay finished second in run defense last season. They were No. 1 this season against the run. The Buccaneers' pass rush and secondary will be up to full strength if Devin White, one of the best linebackers in football, Shaquil Barrett and cornerback Carlton Davis all return. I think they all will, but even if they don't Washington isn't going to produce many points because of Tampa Bay's defensive depth and aggressive schemes of ace defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Washington is worthy of respect strictly because of its defense, which gave up the second-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points. Washington also was second in pass defense. Washington has the pass rushers to bother Tom Brady, who did not fare well when he went up against better defenses this season. No team has scored more than 20 points against Washington during the last seven games.
01-03-21	Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 44		20-14	Win	100	30 h 16 m	Show
The task for Washington is simple. Beat the 4-10-1 Eagles and Washington is in the playoffs. Washington has a top-five defense, but a weak offense with injuries to its best skill position players. So a conservative game plan of playing not to lose is justified in this instance for Washington. Jalen Hurts has been an improvement on shell-shocked Carson Wentz. Opponents, though, by now have plenty of game film on Hurts. He remains largely untested as a passer. The Eagles are going to be without their best offensive player, Miles Sanders. Deep threat DeSean Jackson also is out. So is Dallas Goedert, who has been their best tight end. Need I mention the Eagles long ago lost all of their best offensive linemen. I definitely see Washington's defensive line winning the battle of the trenches. On the Washington skill position side, Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin are all questionable. That's Washington's best QB, RB and WR. All three would be limited if they were to play, especially McLaurin and Smith. The depleted Eagles secondary is vulnerable. Smith always has been a game-manager, though. If Smith can't play because of a calf injury than Taylor Heinicke would be under center for Washington. Heinicke makes Smith look like Brett Favre. Philadelphia has one of the better defensive coordinators in Jim Schwartz. The Eagles will be up for this home contest, which is the nationally televised Sunday Night Game. This is their Super Bowl for what has been a hugely disappointing season. Lots of running and short, safe passes should keep the clock moving in what I anticipate to be a highly-intense defensive battle played in the rain.
01-03-21	Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 50		14-28	Win	100	34 h 47 m	Show
The Colts defense isn't the elite unit it was earlier this season when they opened against five out of six mediocre-to-bad offenses. Their two major defensive statistics have shrunk from top-three to No. 8 in total yards and 12th in scoring defense. That's what can happen when during the last six games you've faced Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson (twice), Derek Carr and Ben Roethlisberger. Now, though, the Colts draw the Jaguars. Jacksonville is averaging 13.6 points in its last three games going against the Titans, Ravens and Bears. I believe Gardner Minshew is Jacksonville's best QB. Doug Marrone disagrees. He's starting immobile journeyman Mike Glennon, who has done nothing to change the perception that he's strictly backup material - and that of the third-string kind. Glennon has a passer rating of just 75.4. He's averaging a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt and has as many interceptions as TD throws. Glennon would be hard-pressed to produce many points against a solid Colts defense if he had decent weapons - but he doesn't. The Jaguars will be without their star rookie running back James Robinson, their best wide receiver, D.J. Chark, and deep threat Collin Johnson. The Colts rank second in run defense, bad news for Jacksonville backup RB Dare Ogunbowale. The Colts are third in forced turnovers with 24. The Jaguars rank 27th in protecting the football having committed 24 turnovers. It's not so easy making the case against the Colts offense. I will say the Jaguars usually give an effort on defense. They do try. Joe Schobert and Myles Jack are excellent linebackers. But the main reason I don't believe the Colts are going to score a ton of points is game script. They won't need to. Indy shouldn't be threatened in this game. The Colts don't need to open things up, or play at a fast tempo. They can take advantage of Jacksonville's 30th-ranked run defense by riding workhorse Jonathan Taylor, who has averaged 20.3 carries in his last five games. Taylor is very good for the Under because he's a between-the-tackles power runner. The Colts lost star offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo to an ankle injury. This is bad news for 39-year-old Philip Rivers, who never was mobile even in his youth. The Colts surrendered 11 sacks in 749 snaps when Castonzo has been in the lineup. They've allowed 10 sacks in 274 snaps without Castonzo. So there's no reason for the Colts - with their season on the line - to take chances against an overmatched opponent when they can just ride Taylor while milking the clock.
01-03-21	Raiders v. Broncos OVER 51		32-31	Win	100	33 h 20 m	Show
I'm eagerly anticipating a no-pressure, let-it-all hang out shootout between two bad defensive teams in this Las Vegas-Denver meaningless finale. Unpredictable January Denver weather won't be a spoiler to the offensive fireworks as the forecast is for temperatures in the high 40s with very little wind. Jon Gruden hasn't been able to solve the Raiders' defensive woes since coming back as their coach three seasons ago. The Raiders were horrible again on defense this season ranking 29th in scoring defense. They've allowed 34.2 points per game in their last six games. If you discount a bad weather game in Cleveland where the wind made it nearly impossible to pass, the Raiders have permitted at least 26 points in 11 of their last 12 games. Denver's defensive woes have been a far greater surprise. The Broncos haven't given up this many points in 10 years. A combination of a cluster injury problem in the defensive line and the offense committing the most turnovers in the league by a large margin have mainly been responsible for this. The Broncos aren't going anywhere until they find out if Drew Lock is their QB answer. Right now Lock hasn't shown he is. But what I like about Lock is he's not content to be a game-manager. He attacks and he has decent weapons with Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant. This could prove to be a pivotal game in Lock's career and the Broncos' franchise. Lock has a golden opportunity here against a bottom-five defense.
12-27-20	Titans v. Packers UNDER 54		14-40	Push	0	11 h 19 m	Show
Sure on paper this game shapes up to be high-scoring. The Titans lead the NFL averaging 31.1 points per game. The Packers are right next to them averaging 31 points. But there is more than just statistics at work here starting with the weather. There is a 90 percent chance of snow. Temperatures for this night game are going to be in the high teens and the wind will be blowing at 10-to-20 mph. Those are far from plus conditions for quarterbacks especially for warm-weather QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans figure to stay on the ground a lot as Green Bay's run defense is worse than its pass defense. That's going to eat a lot of clock. The Packers' defense has been much better at home. Green Bay has held its seven home opponents to an average of 20.2 points a game. Green Bay could manage just three points on a 51-yard field goal by Mason Crosby in the second half of its game against Carolina last week. The Packers figure to run the ball more than normal, too, considering the conditions. Plodding rookie running back AJ Dillon could see his first extended action with Jamaal Williams doubtful due to a quad injury. That would be an added bonus for the Under.
12-26-20	Liberty v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 59.5	Top	37-34	Loss	-107	16 h 0 m	Show
What we have in this Cure Bowl matchup of Liberty versus Coastal Carolina is two strong defensive teams going against slow-tempo, run-oriented offenses. So I find this total excessively high. Liberty gives up the seventh-fewest yards and 10th-fewest passing yards in the nation. The Flames have held their foes to an average of 19.2 points per game. Coastal Carolina has been even stingier limiting their opponents to just 18.7 points a game. The Chanticleers could take advantage of a rusty Liberty offense as the Flames last played back on Nov. 27 and that game was against the worst Division I team in college football, Massachusetts. Both teams ranked among the bottom 30 in college football in terms of pace.
12-25-20	Vikings v. Saints OVER 50	Top	33-52	Win	100	36 h 33 m	Show
Quarterbacks usually get the most attention. But this matchup features the two best all-purpose running backs in the NFL, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara. The Vikings have racked up at least 27 points in six of their last eight games. Only four teams have produced more yards than Minnesota. New Orleans' defense has seen some slippage during the last two weeks. The Saints' defense also carries a heavy fatigue rating. They were on the field for a staggering 98 snaps against the Chiefs last Sunday. They catch a bad break that this game is on Friday afternoon giving them much less rest time. The Saints are going to get their points against a ravaged Vikings defense that showed nine players on the injury report. Minnesota's best defensive player, linebacker Eric Kendricks, is expected to miss his third straight game because of a lingering calf injury. A decimated defensive line, linebacker injuries and inexperienced cornerbacks have caused a steep decline in the Vikings' defense this season. Minnesota just surrendered 33 points to a Mitch Trubisky-led Bears offense last week. The Vikings dealt the Saints brutal playoff losses in two of the last three seasons. So Sean Payton won't be adverse to running up a score if the Saints should break way ahead. Drew Brees should also be far more effective having gotten the rust off last week. Playing on carpet inside a dome is another plus for the Over.
12-21-20	North Texas v. Appalachian State UNDER 68.5		28-56	Loss	-110	3 h 58 m	Show
This total keeps getting pushed up higher. It's high enough now where I'm going to get involved in the Under. Yes, Appalachian State is going to produce a lot of points with an offense that averages 31.8 points and is facing a weak North Texas defense. But it takes scoring from both teams to go above a total this big. I don't see North Texas contributing its share of points. The Mountaineers have held opponents to 19.3 points a game. They rank 12th in fewest yards allowed at 312 a game. North Texas won't have its starting quarterback, Austin Aune, nor its most dynamic player, wide receiver Jaelon Darden, who set a school record with 19 TD catches this season.
12-20-20	Bears v. Vikings OVER 46.5		33-27	Win	100	99 h 49 m	Show
Kirk Cousins has played extremely well during his last seven games completing 69.8 percent of his passes, throwing for 1,823 yards, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and tossing 16 TD passes with just two interceptions during this span. The Bears' defense has regressed. Their secondary isn't nearly as good as it was earlier in the season. Meanwhile the Bears' offense has looked good the past two games since Mitchell Trubisky came back. David Montgomery is playing his finest ball averaging 7.4 yards a carry during his last three games. Trubisky has Montgomery to rely on and an underrated receiving corps headed by the superb Allen Robinson. The Vikings have given up 26 TD passes, fifth-most in the NFL, and they have the eighth fewest sacks. So Trubisky should have continued success. Playing indoors on carpet should just enhance these two hot offenses.
12-19-20	Arizona State v. Oregon State UNDER 55		46-33	Loss	-110	21 h 6 m	Show
There are many reasons to like this total Under. A main one being weather. The forecast is a 100 percent chance of rain with wind in the 10-20 mph range. Arizona State's offensive statistics are skewed from last week's 70-point performance against mistake-prone Arizona. The Sun Devils' offense isn't nearly that good and they are not up-tempo. The Sun Devils hold opponents to 20 points a game, which is the best in the Pac-12. Oregon State is down two of their starting wide receivers, Trevon Bradford and Champ Flemings. The Beavers' star running back, Jermar Jefferson, is questionable with an ankle injury sustained last week. Oregon State figures to run the ball a lot with or without Jefferson.
12-17-20	Chargers v. Raiders OVER 53	Top	30-27	Win	100	19 h 39 m	Show
I'm expecting an entertaining shootout in this matchup. The Chargers' defense hasn't lived up to expectations. LA ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 27.8 points. Losing star safety Derwin James before the season was a cruel blow to the Chargers' secondary, which hasn't been helped by cornerback Casey Hayward having a terrible season. Derek Carr finally has gotten comfortable in Jon Gruden's complicated offense producing his finest season. The Raiders have an above average offense. They have scored at least 31 points in more than half of their games. This includes a 31-26 victory against the Chargers on Nov. 8. That game produced 57 points and came close to putting up a combined 63 points because a 4-yard Chargers TD pass on the final play was reversed on replay. The Raiders' offensive line is healthy again. Tackle Trent Brown can keep Joey Bosa from bothering Carr. Rod Marinelli is the Raiders' new defensive coordinator after Gruden fired Paul Guenther Sunday night. I like Marinelli more as a defensive line coach rather than coordinator. He catches a bad break that his first game as coordinator falls on a short week and the Raiders will be down four defensive starters - strong safety Johnathan Abram, linebacker Nicholas Morrow, lineman Clelin Ferrell and cornerback Damon Arnette. Morrow has been the Raiders' best defensive player the past few weeks. Abram is a far-ranging safety and an emotional leader. Only two teams permit more points per game than the Raiders, who surrender 30.1. Las Vegas ranks 25th in total defense and has only 15 sacks in 13 games. Justin Herbert should be able to do a lot of damage with a clean pocket and passing against an extremely banged-up secondary that also is missing starting safety Jeff Heath. He went on injured reserve last week due to a concussion. I expect Keenan Allen and Austi Ekeler to play. Their injuries are not serious. Herbert has the talent, weapons and weak opposing defense to have a huge game.
12-12-20	San Diego State v. BYU UNDER 49.5		14-28	Win	100	66 h 14 m	Show
San Diego State completely shut down Zach Wilson and BYU's offense last season in a 13-3 home victory. While I highly doubt the Aztecs hold the Cougars to three points this time, I do expect a low-scoring game with BYU struggling to solve San Diego State's defense again. The Cougars were held 17 points in losing to Coastal Carolina this past Saturday. San Diego State has better defensive numbers than Coastal Carolina ranking eighth in scoring defense giving up 16.3 points and third in total defense holding foes to 269.1 yards. The Under is 9-1-1 in the Aztecs' last 11 road games. Wilson draws a lot of media attention, but BYU has a strong defense allowing just 14.7 points per game. Only three teams give up fewer points per game. The Cougars are seventh in total defense allowing 299.9 yards per contest. The Aztecs are very weak offensively especially their passing attack, which ranks 119th. San Diego State's game plan is to keep the clocking moving by running the ball and playing for field position trying to make sure BYU has long stretches to go.
12-12-20	Akron v. Buffalo UNDER 61.5		7-56	Loss	-115	110 h 59 m	Show
At first glance this total may seem a little low considering Buffalo beat Kent State, 70-41, in its last game. But Akron is an entirely different opponent. The Zips may not even score. That was the case in last year's game. Buffalo blanked them, 21-0. That total was just 48. Buffalo remains a power in the Mid-American Conference. Akron remains terrible. But this year's total is much higher. I don't think that's justified. Yes, Buffalo can name its score here. The Bulls are going to destroy Akron. But to what extent? The Zips are in the argument for worst offense in the country. They rank 120th in total yards and 114th in scoring averaging 19.2 points. Buffalo is holding foes to an average of 24.5 points - and that's after surrendering 41 to Kent State. The Bulls held Bowling Green to 17 points and Miami of Ohio to 10 in their previous two games. Akron has been a huge Under team. The Under has cashed in 69 percent of its last 51 games. The last four in this series have gone Under. The weather forecast is calling for a 50 percent chance of rain with 12-15 mph winds. More ammunition to play Under.
12-10-20	Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45.5	Top	3-24	Win	100	31 h 10 m	Show
No coach is better at specific defensive game-planning than Bill Belichick. The Rams found that out the hard way when they lost 13-3 to the Patriots two seasons ago in the Super Bowl. The Rams averaged 32.9 points during the regular season that year. Jared Goff is a quarterback who doesn't keep Belichick awake at night. Belichick's schemes completely stymied Goff, who enters this matchup averaging two turnovers per game during his last five games. New England has shown plenty of defense the past two weeks holding Arizona to 17 points and shutting out the Chargers. The Patriots held Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert to a combined 4.4 yards per pass attempt, one touchdown pass with four interceptions and five sacks. The Rams rank in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories, giving up the second-fewest yards. The Patriots have failed to break 21 points in six of their last nine games. The Patriots rely heavily on their ground game. They have played ultra-conservative this season because of lack of firepower. Cam Newton never was a highly accurate passer and his throwing has regressed. The Rams rank third in run defense. They also give up the fewest 20-plus yards completion so don't look for many big plays from New England.
12-10-20	Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech OVER 54.5		34-20	Loss	-110	7 h 17 m	Show
Georgia Tech is giving up an average of 41.3 points during its last eight games. The Yellow Jackets are short-handed in the secondary and their defense is running on fumes as this marks their third game in 13 days. Yellow Jackets QB Jeff Sims, though, should be able to pass on Pittsburgh. Sims is a dual threat. He's rushed for 478 yards and thrown for 1,643. Pittsburgh is geared to stop the run. The Panthers rank 82nd in pass defense. The Over has cashed in each of the Panthers' last seven games. Look for that trend to continue here.
12-06-20	Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47.5		17-12	Win	100	60 h 9 m	Show
Don't judge this total by full season statistics. Go by current form. Sparked by the return of star safety Jamal Adams, the Seahawks have held their last three opponents to an average of 20.3 points after surrendering an average of 30.4 points during the first eight games. The Giants rank 30th in scoring at 19.5 points and 29th in yards gained - and that was with Daniel Jones. Now they have backup QB Colt McCoy, a heady journeyman with a weak arm and a deserved reputation as nothing more than a dink-and-dunk game-manager. The Giants have been running more than they were earlier in the season. They've played at the fifth-slowest pace of any team during November. Seattle has been playing even slower ranking last in tempo during the past two weeks. The Seahawks have gone back to being a ground-and-pound team instead of letting Russell Wilson throw at will. Pete Carroll has returned to this old way to give cover to his defense and protect Wilson, who has been taking a pounding being sacked 16 times during the last four games. The Seahawks' offense has produced six TD's during the last three games after scoring four or more TD's in each of their first eight games. The Giants defense is greatly improved. New York has held its last six foes to an average of 20 points. The Under has cashed in five of those six games. The Under also has cashed in Seattle's past three games.
12-06-20	Colts v. Texans UNDER 51		26-20	Win	100	57 h 53 m	Show
These teams averaged a combined 40 points in last season's two meetings. This game shapes up to be lower-scoring than projected, too, as these division foes are very well acquainted with each other. The Colts have offensive line injuries. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo is out and center Ryan Kelly is questionable. Philip Rivers figures to be more game-manager than downfield attacker. The Texans are very weak versus the run so I envision the Colts eating up clock with lots of running plays and Rivers sticking to short and safe passes. Deshaun Watson has been on fire. But he no longer has suspended deep threat Will Fuller and hasn't dealt with a defense this good since Week 3 when the Texans faced Pittsburgh and lost, 28-21. When Fuller hasn't been in the lineup, Watson has thrown for 55 fewer yards per game and a full TD pass less.
12-05-20	Indiana v. Wisconsin OVER 44.5		14-6	Loss	-105	38 h 48 m	Show
No, this low total isn't weather-related. The oddsmaker is just giving too much respect to Wisconsin's defense and not enough to Indiana's offense. Yes, the Hoosiers lost their star QB, Michael Penix Jr., for the season. But former Utah QB Jack Tuttle is one of the better backup QB's. He's a downfield passer with plenty of high-caliber receiving weapons and an excellent running back, Stevie Scott. The Hoosiers just rushed for 234 yards against Maryland in their last game. Wisconsin's offense is much better than it looked against Northwestern two weeks ago. The Badgers were idle last week after their game was cancelled. The extra time is good for their banged-up receiving corps and gives them ample time and motivation to scheme against Indiana, whose defense heavily relies on turnovers. Making the Badgers more dangerous than in previous years is the emergence of highly-touted freshman QB Graham Mertz. He could be Wisconsin's best QB since Russell Wilson. Weather won't be a problem as the forecast is for a clear day with no wind and temperatures in the 30s.
12-05-20	Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 57.5	Top	3-31	Win	100	77 h 35 m	Show
Both teams are 0-4 and have terrible offenses. Bowling Green ranks 126th in scoring averaging 13.5 points. The Falcons are 111th in yards gained. Akron isn't much better being 123th in scoring at 16.3. The Zips rank 120th in yards gained. I don't like either of these team's QB's. Bowling Green QB Matt McDonald has a 1-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio. Zips QB Zack Gibson has a 3-to-5 TD-to-interception ratio. So I see this total as being too high. Akron has a race chance to win. So the Zips are likely to feed the ball a lot to Teon Dollard, their one decent skill position player. A lot of running plays is going to eat clock. The Under has cashed seven of the last eight times they've met.
12-05-20	Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 52		22-29	Win	100	9 h 24 m	Show
Short on personnel because of COVID 19, TCU coach Gary Patterson has made no secret about his game plan - run. The Horned Frogs want to shorten this game by playing ball control keeping Oklahoma State, with its bevy of star skill position players, off the field as much as possible. The Horned Frogs, though, haven't proven they can effectively run the ball against better defenses. They've padded their status versus lower echelon Big 12 Conference foes. The Cowboys have been dealing with injuries. Their star running back, Chuba Hubbard, is questionable with an ankle injury. TCU has held three of its past four opponents to 80 rushing yards. Only once in the past 11 instances have the Cowboys gone Over the total in December. TCU has gone Under in eight of its last 10 December games.

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