West Virginia has been a nice surprise, but I like TCU here. I'm not sold on West Virginia's defense, nor the Mountaineers' ability to control the trenches. The Horned Frogs have 21 sacks.  
The line is too high here based somewhat on the Mountaineers' 48-17 road victory against Texas Tech last week. That was West Virginia's best game of the season. The Mountaineers will be hard-pressed to duplicate that effort. They have failed to cover seven of the last eight times they've gone against an above .500 foe. 
TCU averages 40.2 points per game. The Horned Frogs have a balanced offense and a pair of standout defensive players in linebackers Ty Summers and Travin Howard. 
It's significant that the Horned Frogs were idle last week. Not only are they 12-1 following a bye, but they could have key reinforcements playing in this game.
There is optimism at TCU that the Horned Frogs will have star receiver and kick returner KaVontae Turpin back from a knee injury plus center Austin Schlottmann returning from a foot injury. The Horned Frogs could further be bolstered by having cornerback Julius Lewis and offensive lineman Trey Elliott available for the first time this season. Both have missed the season due to injuries.  

This line is off. These teams aren't even, which the oddsmaker is insinuating opening the game Houston minus 3 with home-field usually worth a field goal. 
The Texans have a strong defense. They rank fifth in fewest yards allowed and are No. 1 in pass defense. 
The Colts have a defense for the ages - the dark ages. It's one of their worst ever, which is saying a lot. Indy just allowed the Bears and backup quarterback Brian Hoyer to roll up 522 yards in a six-point home win that was closer than the score may indicate. 
The Texans beat the Bears by nine points opening week and the Bears have regressed since then due to multiple injuries. 
I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler. But the Texans' offensive line should be much improved with the return of left tackle Duane Brown. Osweiler has a top-five wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and a solid running back in Lamar Miller. 
The Colts are giving up 29.6 points a game, fourth-worst in the NFL, and are 30th in yards given up. 
Indy wins games by outscoring opponents in shootouts. The Colts have been fortunate to draw below average defenses in four of their first five games. Their offensive line is inexperienced and can't protect Andrew Luck, who already has been sacked 20 times. The Texans have a strong pass rush even without injured J.J. Watt with emerging stars Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus. 
Look for the Texans to dominate both lines of scrimmage - and the game. 

I like the Chiefs a lot here for three main reasons: They are the superior team. The situation. And the line value with the Raiders opening the favorite. 
Oakland is much improved. Granted. But the Chiefs have won five of the past six meetings. They have the better defense and superior ground attack. Derek Carr is an emerging star. Alex Smith wins, though. The Chiefs are 13-3 in their last 16 games with Smith behind center. 
The Raiders are facing a triple whammy here. They are fat and happy riding a three-game winning streak, including holding off San Diego this past Sunday for a big AFC West Division victory. 
The Chiefs are off their worst loss since Andy Reid took over - an embarrassing 43-14 nationally televised Sunday night loss to the Steelers. That was two weeks ago. The Chiefs were idle last week. So they will have had two weeks to stew about that defeat. 
No coach is better off a bye than Reid. His Eagles and Chiefs teams are 15-2 after being idle the week before. That's 88 percent for a 17-game sampling. 
Oakland has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 home contests. The Raiders are 7-23 ATS the past 30 times laying points, including failing to cover the past five times they've been home chalk. 
The Raiders may not have their best running back, Latavius Murray, again. The Chiefs' star running back, Jamaal Charles, should be ready now for full-time duty. Smith has weapons with Charles, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin. The Raiders give up the most total yards and passing yards in the NFL. They also rank 27th in run defense. 

Colorado isn't used to be in this lofty role - and the Buffaloes don't deserve to be nearly two touchdowns favorite here against a Pac-12 foe that isn't any less talented, bigger and faster than they are.  
The Sun Devils have dominated this series winning the past seven times, covering six of the seven. 
Arizona State holds a special teams edge and can stop Colorado's ground attack. The Sun Devils rank fifth nationally in run defense and first in the Pac-12. 
The Sun Devils average 39.7 points and 434.8 yards per game. So they will present a supreme challenge to the Buffaloes especially with starting quarterback Manny Wilkins able to play. 

San Diego has lost its last 10 AFC West matchups. I don't see that streak ending with this game. 
The Chargers are banged-up in the secondary - missing two of their three best cornerbacks in Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers - and Philip Rivers doesn't have several of his key offensive weapons, including Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. The Chargers' offensive line is going to have problems handling Von Miller, who already has 6 1/2 sacks, and the rest of the Denver pass rush. 
The Falcons were able to run on the Chargers. I don't see the Chargers doing that. Melvin Gordon has found the end zone this year, but he's far from an elite running back. 
Denver is fuming from losing at home to Atlanta. The Broncos defense did their job even though it permitted more than 20 points for the first time in 10 games. The Broncos were done in by the inexperience of rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch starting his first NFL game. Denver's blocking was below par, too, minus right tackle Donald Stephenson and tight end Virgil Green.
Word is both Stephenson and Green will be ready for Thursday game. Another key is that regular quarterback Trevor Siemian also will be ready. 
Broncos coach Gary Kubiak is expected to miss the game, hospitalized because of complex migraines. I see this as even more incentive for the Broncos to win one for their coach especially coming off a home loss. 
San Diego may have the worst home field advantage of any team in the league. The Chargers find ways to lose nearly every week having blown leads to the Chiefs, Colts and Saints. Now they draw the defending champs, a team that really knows how to win. 

The Chargers are 1-3, but have outscored their opponents by 13 points. The Raiders are 3-1 and have outscored their foes by two points.
The Chargers have led by double-digits at halftime in three of their games. They have blown three fourth-quarter leads. They are a frustrated bunch who are averaging more than 30 points a game and have a decent secondary.
Philip Rivers has a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is on pace to throw for 4,440 yards. He's having another splendid season. Melvin Gordon has rushed for six touchdowns. The Chargers will get their points against a Raiders defense that ranks in the bottom-three in total yards, rush yards and pass yards. 
The Raiders are returning from their third long trip in four weeks. They aren't as desperate as the Chargers, who also have double-revenge motivation. 

Life as an independent isn't easy these days. BYU is experiencing that. The Cougars have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and now play in the Eastern Time Zone for the second time in two weeks. 
The timing and opponent are especially bad for BYU. Michigan State not only is in circle-the-wagons mode - 0-2 in the Big Ten for the first time since 2007 following consecutive losses to Wisconsin and Indiana - but causes a matchup nightmare problem for the Cougars. 
The Spartans always have a strong run defense under Mark Dantonio. That's the case again this season as the Spartans rank 15th versus the run. BYU just surrendered 53 points at home to Toledo of the Mid-American Conference. The Cougars, inconsistent all season, rank 97th in total defense. They rely on their running spearheaded by Jamaal Williams. The Spartans are going to key on him and quarterback Taysom Hill isn't a strong enough passer to carry the Cougars in this extremely tough road setting. Hill needs to be set up by Williams not the only way around. 
Not only have the Cougars been traveling the country, but they've yet to have a bye. They get the chance to host a rare SEC foe next Friday when Mississippi State visits Provo in a game that will be televised by ESPN. That's the game the Cougars will be pointing to. 
It's Michigan State, the defending Big Ten champion, that has the urgency this week. The Spartans have the talent, desire and right scheduling setup to beat the Cougars by double-digits. 

Maybe the oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. But the Vikings' home field advantage, with their new indoor $16 billion stadium, is worth four points right there and these teams are not even. The Vikings are much better.
So I'm locking into this point spread now as I envision it to go higher during the week when more people start playing attention.
The Vikings are a physical, disciplined team with excellent coaching and a defense that is becoming more dominant week to week, which isn't surprising given the tremendous talent at each position. The Vikings have held the Titans to 16 points, the Packers to 14 points and Panthers to 10 points. 
Since Mike Zimmer came on board - and hiring a top level staff to assist him - the Vikings have covered an amazing 75 percent of their games going 27-9 ATS! 
Minnesota is better off with the more accurate and downfield attacker Sam Bradford at quarterback than it was when Teddy Bridgewater was under center. Adrian Peterson's injury is overrated. He was averaging 1.6 yards per carry. The Vikings are fine with Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata replacing Peterson. They did the job two years ago when Peterson missed the season and are better receiving targets out of the backfield than Peterson. 
The Giants have upgraded their defense, but it doesn't compare to Minnesota's. The Giants remain turnover and penalty-prone. Ben McAdoo can't compare to Zimmer as a head coach. The Giants just lost Shane Vereen for the season further weakening an already well below average ground attack. 

Carolina already has more regular season losses than it did during last year's regular season. That's because the Panthers have gone against two of the top defenses in the NFL - Broncos and Vikings. 
The Panthers actually could be better offensively than a year ago with Kelvin Benjamin in the lineup. Carolina is stepping way down in class defensively taking on the Falcons. The Panthers are at their best when they can bully and dominate the lines of scrimmage. They couldn't do that versus the Broncos and Vikings. They can against the finesse Falcons.
Carolina whipped the Falcons, 38-0, at home last season. But the Panthers won't forget losing 20-13 at Atlanta last season for their lone regular season defeat. This is a revenge spot for the Panthers and they catch the Falcons on a short week.
Even with the Falcons beating the defenseless Saints this past Monday, Atlanta still has covered just four of its last 15 games. Second-year head Falcons coach Dan Quinn hasn't been able to fix a leaky defense, nor upgrade a weak pass rush. 
Matt Ryan is having a big season so far and does play better in a dome setting, which this is. But the Falcons' two top wider receivers are both less than 100 percent. 

There is more than a touchdown class difference here factoring in Cincinnati's home field advantage. This is made more by the Dolphins traveling on a short week and their multiple injuries. 
Miami was life and death with the Browns at home this past Sunday. It took three missed field goals by the Browns, including one at the end of regulation, that allowed the Dolphins to escape with an overtime victory. 
Cincinnati is one of the best all around teams in the NFL. The Bengals protect their home-field well, too, only losing five times during their last 25 games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals are off a disappointing home loss, though, to the Broncos. So there is little chance that they'll take the Dolphins for granted, or look past them. Even with that loss to Denver, Cincinnati still is 13-5-2 ATS in its past 20 games. 
The Bengals' defense has been solid, rather than outstanding. But look for the Bengals' defensive level to be raised a notch with the return from suspension of star linebacker and defensive leader Vontaze Burfict. 
The Dolphins are weak defensively in their back seven and could be without all three of their starting linebackers. Miami is vulnerable to A.J. Green and in big trouble offensively with their top runner, Arian Foster, out again and a cluster injury problem in the offensive line. 
Miami very well could be starting third-string center Kraig Urbik. Starting center Mike Pouncey is out at least another week with a hip injury and backup Anthony Steen suffered a high ankle sprain against the Browns. Also out for the Dolphins is starting tight end Jordan Cameron with a concussion. 
The combination of the Bengals' talent edge, home field advantage that is magnified by a short week and the many Miami injuries make the Bengals a solid play as they should win by double-digits. 

I want desperate teams, especially taking this many points in a division matchup. It's circle-the-wagons time for the 0-2 Redskins.
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog getting the money eight of the last 11 times. 
The Giants are 2-0 having eked out last-minute victories against the Cowboys and Saints by a combined four points. New York's defense is much improved from a year ago courtesy of a $200 million spending spree. But it's far from dominant and the Giants offense has yet to impress averaging 18 points a game. The Giants have a below average ground attack.
Kirk Cousins isn't Pro Bowl caliber. But he's also better than what he has shown so far this season. He has excellent receiving weapons - especially with a matchup of Jordan Reed against the Giants mediocre linebackers - and has received excellent pass protection. The Giants have a below average pass rush.
The Redskins have moved the ball they've just had trouble putting up touchdowns in the red zone. That should change with better play-calling, including not overusing fade routes that don't work. 
Josh Norman shores up the Redskins' secondary and the coaching staff finally has figured out to move Norman around. That means he's likely to be shadowing Odell Beckham Jr. Norman got inside Beckham's head last season. He's probably the cornerback that Beckham least likes to face. 

I haven't been impressed with Baylor, which has played weak competition and didn't cover any of its three games. Facing Northwestern State, SMU and Rice is not a good non-conference buildup to stepping up against Oklahoma State. It's not stepping out to say the Bears played the weakest non-conference schedule of any Big 12 team.
Baylor's great defensive stats are skewed by this easy schedule. Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph and and wide receiver James Washington can hurt any defense. An added plus for the Cowboys would be if safety Orion Stewart can't play after injuring his ribs against Rice last week and if cornerback Ryan Reid has to miss a second straight week after sustaining a high ankle sprain versus SMU. 
I believe Baylor quarterback Seth Russell is a real downgrade from recent Baylor quarterbacks. The Bears have had to endure a lot of uncertainty and a coaching change due to recent scandals. It has hurt their recruiting. This is their first big test in the post Art Briles era and I can't see the Bears winning by more than a touchdown against this high quality opponent that has a real chip on its shoulder from getting ripped off against Central Michigan two weeks ago on an extra play that shouldn't have been allowed. 

The wheels are coming off USC under Clay Helton. The Trojans are 1-4 since he was named permanent coach during last season. The Trojans have bad chemistry and face a Utah squad big on revenge after losing to the Trojans, 42-24, last year. The Utes were 6-0 entering that game, ranked seventh in the country. 
The Trojans have some talented playmakers, but they're wasted in a dysfunctional program. Playing a day earlier than usual and at always-tough Rice-Eccles Stadium are big disadvantages for the Trojans. 
USC was pounded by Alabama losing by 46 points. The Trojans already have made a quarterback change. I can't see the Trojans having the necessary focus and discipline to win this Pac-12 road game. They are off a bad road loss to Stanford, a very physical opponent, and now will be playing away from home for the third time in four weeks. The Trojans have failed to cover in 15 of their last 21 away matchups. 
Utah ranks No. 2 in the nation in sacks with 15 and is No. 8 nationally in pass-efficiency defense. The Utes are balanced on offense and strong on special teams. They are in much better shape mentally and physically for this game than USC.

This line is too short. The Bears are much superior to the Eagles. The line doesn't reflect that because it's just Week 2 and the oddsmaker is swayed by how well Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz looked opening week and the Bears losing and not covering versus the Texans.
Wentz, though, went against maybe the worst defense in the NFL - the Browns. He was home, too. Now he makes his road debut and it's on the Monday night national stage against a much-improved, well-coached Bears defense.
Wentz has an aging offensive line and below average wide receivers. He's not likely to have his security blanket either as tight end Zach Ertz has a serious rib injury and is not likely to play. I see Wentz struggling in this spot.
Jay Cutler has physical tools, but is not an elite quarterback. We know that. But Cutler will do better this year with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. I rate Jeffery as the eighth-best wide receiver in the NFL. His presence is huge for Cutler's confidence and the Bears offense. The Eagles secondary can't cover him. 
Cutler is at his best when he's not facing adversity. He won't have to deal with that in this matchup. 

I see this as a clear kill spot for the Panthers and I want to lock in now before the number hits 14 - which it will and then probably still go higher.  
The Panthers hold edges in all areas against the 49ers. Not just minor edges either. The Panthers have all-pros at many positions. The 49ers have below average starters at many positions.  
The 49ers' problems are made more difficult by the scheduling dynamics. The Panthers have had nearly 1 1/2 weeks to sit around stewing about blowing a lead to the Broncos in the opening Thursday night game. Cam Newton is going to have a much easier time against the 49ers defense. 
The 49ers are fat and happy after whipping the Rams at home this past Monday night. Now they have to make a cross-country journey on a short week. Carolina is 19-7-1 in its last 27 home games. 

Minnesota is much superior to Tennessee in all facets except quarterback and that includes coaching. The Vikings have their sights set on reaching the Super Bowl. Their roster is very strong with lots of young defensive talent, Adrian Peterson to take the pressure off Shaun Hill, more wide receiving threats and an upgraded offensive line. 
After losing to a bad 49ers team last year on the road in their opener, the Vikings should be fully prepared this time around. They know they can't take a loss with the Packers and Panthers up next in Weeks 2 and 3. The Vikings rebounded from that defeat to the 49ers to cover their last seven road games. Peterson and an emerging defense are an excellent road formula. 
The Titans have lost 14 of their 16 home games during the last two seasons. Marcus Mariota is a promising second-year quarterback, but the Titans are in a huge rebuilding stage. They have a lot of youth, new starters and lack receiving weapons for Mariota. Their talent level can't compare to the Vikings. 

I'm skeptical of Brock Osweiler and a banged-up offensive line that is likely to be without star left tackle Duane Brown. I'm certainly not swallowing the hype on Osweiler. 
Both teams are slow-motion, grind-out types where points mean something. So taking more than a field goal is big. Last year, all but five of the Bears' games were decided by five points or less. 
The Bears are well coached and fundamentally sound. John Fox is 30-12 ATS on the road in his NFL coaching career and knows the Texans and Osweiler from when he coached the Broncos. The Bears covered six of their last seven away games last season. 
I'm expecting a strong defensive game plan from Fox and his ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio with so much time to prepare. I'll take their experience, savvy and tricks against Osweiler and a vanilla Houston offense that had to deal with multiple offensive line injuries during preseason and isn't likely to be in sync here.
The Bears offense is ready to take off and become a lot more vertical with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. Jay Cutler is far more effective with a healthy Jeffery. 

Washington State under Mike Leach has been at its best versus strong competition and as a road 'dog, both of which are in play here. The Cougars are 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus above .500 opponents and have covered 12 of the last 15 times as an away underdog. 
The Cougars have proven their road strength by winning at Oregon, UCLA, USC, Arizona and California during the past three years under Leach. 
Certainly the Cougars have the offense to hang with Boise State sparked by quarterback Luke Falk and wide receiver Gabe Marks. They can hurt a Boise State defense that does not have a stellar pass rush nor secondary. 
It's on defense where the oddsmaker doubts Washington State with this line after the Cougars lost, 45-42, to Eastern Washington as heavy favorites during opening week. 
But Eastern Washington has an underrated offense and the Cougars were without their best defensive player, suspended safety Shalom Luani. He's back from suspension now and will play here, which should greatly shore up the Cougars' secondary. 

I see the Panthers getting their revenge on the Broncos after losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. Carolina didn't lose the Super Bowl based on talent. The Panthers out-gained the Broncos by 121 yards and had 10 more first downs than Denver.
Certainly the Broncos are worthy of respect despite their less-than-inspiring quarterback situation. But Carolina is the more complete team extremely strong on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton just had his worst game of the season in the Super Bowl.
Newton, of course, is the real deal and gives the Panthers a monster quarterback edge. He has his top receiver weapon, Kelvin Benjamin, back now which wasn't the case in the Super Bowl. 
Denver's defense still is top-notch, but several important players did leave. Carolina lost its great cornerback, Josh Norman. But the Panthers rate far better than the Broncos with a top-three quarterback compared to a bottom-three quarterback. 
The right team is favored here. 

First it's important to note this game isn't in Madison. It's in Green Bay at Lambeau Field and LSU expects to have 30,000 fans. The seating capacity is 80,735. So almost half the crowd will be for the Tigers. 
As far as the matchup, it couldn't come at a worst time for Wisconsin. The Badgers need to shore up their offensive line because of injuries. Their best offensive lineman recently retired due to repeated injuries. They also are unsettled at quarterback. It would have been best for Wisconsin to ease into their schedule. That's certainly not the case here.
LSU is an absolute powerhouse with tremendous skill position talent. Leonard Fournette rivals Deshaun Watson as the best player in college football. 
Highly respected Tigers defensive coordinator Dave Aranda knows the Badgers inside-and-out having been their defensive coordinator the previous three seasons before coming to LSU this season. The Badgers hated to see him go. 
Wisconsin is going to lose anywhere from three to six games this season. The Badgers aren't in LSU's class and that point is made worse for Wisconsin by this being the opening game. 

Colorado has its best team since 2007 with 18 returning starters. Colorado State could have its worst team in five years. Yet because some look upon this matchup as some sort of in-state rivalry, the spread is less than double-digits. 
Wrong number. The Buffaloes should roll past the Rams with huge edges in the trenches and in the passing game. 
Colorado is deep at running back and has a top wide receiver in Shay Fields. Colorado State has to replace it's entire defensive front and is thin and inexperienced in the secondary. Senior Buffaloes quarterback Sefo Liufau and Fields should put up big numbers.
The Buffaloes showed defensive improvement last year and that should continue this season. They return nine defensive starters plus get back suspended senior nose tackle Josh Tupou. Colorado State lost its best receiver from last season.  
The Buffaloes have won and covered five of the last six in this series and are in great position to extend that run given the timing of this matchup. 

Five times Denver has been an underdog this season. Five times the Broncos have covered winning four of those games straight-up.
The Panthers are this big of a favorite, in part, because of how strong they looked in beating the Cardinals by 34 points in the second of the two championship games. 
Denver holding New England to just 18 points the AFC title game is just as impressive, though. The Broncos held the Steelers and Patriots to an average of 17 points in playoff competition while dealing Tom Brady his lowest quarterback rating of the season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos ranked No. 1 in total defense, pass defense and sacks. 
Carolina's defense isn't as dominant relying on an NFL-best 39 takeaways and plus 20 turnover ratio. The Panthers are down two starters in their secondary and likely to be missing star linebacker Thomas Davis, who suffered a broken arm against the Cardinals. Davis was playing as well as any Carolina defender. Denver lost its starting safeties against New England, but both vowed to play in the Super Bowl. 
Carolina only beat one opponent, Seattle, with a winning record when it was playing outside of Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers lost to Atlanta the last time they were away from home. The Panthers have been to one Super Bowl - back in 2003. They are an inexperienced in this setting and a shaky favorite having nearly blown late leads against the Colts, Packers, Giants and Seahawks in the playoffs when they won 31-24 after being up 31-0. 
The Broncos are 'dogs in this range because of the quarterback matchup. Cam Newton deserves to be the MVP. Peyton Manning is Alex Smith now. But Manning also looked the healthiest he's looked in months. Manning may be the wisest quarterback to ever play. Certainly he's in that discussion. He knows his defense is elite - capable of winning the Super Bowl.
There is no more opportunistic team than the Panthers. The key for the Broncos is not turning the ball over. Manning's regular season statistics show horrific numbers - a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a last-place passer rating. However, the savvy Manning hasn't turned the ball over during the playoffs. He had a 103.8 quarterback rating in the first half against the Patriots. 
Manning has better wide receivers than Newton and is smart enough to stay away from shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. Instead, Manning will ride C.J. Anderson, who has been at least Jonathan Stewart's equal averaging 5.6 yards a carry during his last four games, and let his defense win the game. 
The Broncos just played in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. They are looking for atonement for a 43-8 loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers' defense isn't nearly as dominant as Seattle's was two years ago especially minus starting defensive backs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They also could be down safety Roman Harper and pass rusher Jared Allen. 
Newton and the Panthers are thrilled to be on center stage. How will they handle it? Accuracy isn't Newton's strength. If he comes out tight the Broncos' elite defense surely will take advantage. Wade Phillips is one of the sharpest defensive coordinators of all time. He has two weeks to prepare and major cards to defend against Newton, including a pair of dominant edge pass rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. 
The bottom line is taking more than a field goal with an elite defense, more experienced big-game team and having one of the sharpest quarterbacks of all-time with a better supporting cast around him. 

Both defenses are very good. The difference - and it's huge - is quarterback. Tom Brady is 38, but remains in the argument for best quarterback in the league. No quarterback threw for more touchdowns. 
Peyton Manning is just a year older than Brady, but he's washed-up done in by multiple neck surgeries and a foot injury that had kept him out of action since Nov. 15 until a lackluster start this past Sunday against the Steelers where he needed a Pittsburgh fumble to put up his lone touchdown. 
Manning is nothing but a glorified game-manager lacking a sterling ground game to fall back on, or set him up to keep pace with Brady. Manning has never been very good in the postseason even in his prime. He is 5-11 in his career versus Brady and 1-5 in the playoffs when the temperature has been under 40 degrees. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven postseason contests.
The Broncos were just 5-4 straight-up and ATS in Manning's nine starts. Manning finished 35th in passer ratings with a horrendous 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
The Patriots have a top-10 defense, including a top-10 run defense. Their key linebackers did get nicked up against the Chiefs this past Saturday, but Bill Belichick always has versatile defenders and is deep at the position if some of his starters can't go. 
Neither Manning, nor Brock Osweiler, are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Broncos rely on their defense. Ben Roethlisberger threw for nearly 340 yards against them with a sore shoulder and no Antonio Brown. Brady is capable of more with a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and healthy Julian Edelman. New England averaged 33 points per game and a 50 percent third down conversion rate with Edelman and only 23 points and a 30 percent third down conversion rate in the seven games Edelman missed with a foot injury.
Edelman is the key to the Patriots' up-tempo, quick-rhythm strike offense that doesn't need a sufficient ground game. The Patriots put up 27 points on the Chiefs defense, which was playing even better than Denver's. New England's offense should be even more well tuned this week with Edelman getting the rust off. The Patriots catch a break with Denver cornerback Chris Harris dealing with a shoulder injury. 
Given the liberal rules that favor offense in this era, Brady has a clear advantage on Denver's defense. Manning is in his dotage, nothing more than a glorified game manager. He won't be able to keep pace. 

Now that plus 7's are on the board, I'm pouncing on Clemson, unbeaten this season and winners of 17 in a row. 
Alabama is not the dominant monster team that is perceived by many. That perception was fueled by the Crimson Tide destroying Michigan State last week. Credit to Alabama for playing great in that matchup. But Clemson is nothing like the Spartans. Clemson's strengths directly play against Alabama, unlike Michigan State. 
Alabama played its Game of the Year against Michigan State, fueled by Big Ten revenge after a 42-35 bowl loss to Ohio State last season and having three weeks to prepare for the Spartans. Michigan State doesn't have the offensive talent, nor plays the style of offense, Clemson does. The Spartans, in hindsight, were sitting ducks for Alabama. 
Michigan State's Connor Cook is a dropback quarterback operating a pro-style offense. The Crimson Tide is much more geared to stop this type of offense rather than Clemson's option. The Tigers' Deshaun Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. Unlike Michigan State, Clemson has playmakers at the flanks and it spreads the field. The Crimson Tide are going to encounter problems handling Watson and this type of offense, especially with just one week to prepare. This is especially pertinent in light of Crimson Tide defensive coordinator Kirby Smart shuttling responsibilities after being named Georgia's head coach last month. 
Clemson pushes pace with its up-tempo attack. This keeps Alabama from making its normal substitution patterns thereby reducing its team depth. Look at who Alabama has lost to during the last three years - at home to Mississippi this season- then last season at Mississippi and to Ohio State in the bowl semifinals - also 45-31 to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl in 2013. 
Clemson rolled past the Sooners, 37-17, this past week. Go back to 2012 and you'll find the Crimson Tide losing at home to Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel. The common denominator is these are spread offenses with mobile quarterbacks none of whom is better than Watson, who is light years ahead of Alabama quarterback Jake Coker. 

Clemson has covered in its last four bowl games. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games, while Alabama is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  

Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL winning 10 in a row. The Chiefs beat the Texans by a touchdown at Houston in Week 1 and nothing has changed. The Chiefs still are the superior team.
The Chiefs have played the stronger competition being in a much tougher division. They have a balanced offense with a superior quarterback in Alex Smith, who rates an edge on Brian Hoyer. The Chiefs' defense is holding foes to only 14.5 points during their last 12 games and should have Justin Houston back this week. Houston led the NFL in sacks last season.
The Texans are going to be without their best offensive lineman, left tackle Duane Brown. He's out for the season after suffering a torn tendon in his right quad this past Sunday.
The Chiefs have the best turnover ratio in the AFC at plus 14. Their secondary has a 12-to-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio in their last 11 games. 

The Texans are just thrilled to have reached the playoffs courtesy only of being in the worst division. 

Prop Bet (Taken from Westgate)
Over 5 1/2 Sacks
Look for these two teams to exceed 5 1/2 sacks. Kansas City ranked No. 4 in sacks with 47 while the Texans were No. 5 with 45. J.J. Watt led the NFL in sacks this season with 17 1/2. A year ago, Justin Houston led the NFL in sacks. Houston is expected back for the Chiefs this week after missing the last five games with a knee injury. He had 22 sacks last season. Alex Smith was sacked 45 times this season. Only two quarterbacks were sacked more times. Smith is highly mobile, but also highly conservative. He would much rather go down that take a shot on completing a pass. He is the total opposite of a gunslinger. Brian Hoyer isn't as mobile as Smith and won't have his best pass blocker as left tackle Duane Brown was injured last week and is out for the season. 

The Raiders have a history of playing their long-time hated division rival tough and I expect that to be the case again. Oakland has covered seven of the past nine times playing in Kansas City. The teams are 5-5 during their past 10 meetings. Only once in the last eight years have the Chiefs swept the Raiders.

Unlike previous seasons, the Raiders under their first-year coach Jack Del Rio have showed resolve while playing much better on the road. They have a winning away mark and have covered in four of their last five road matchups. Not once have the Raiders lost by more than five points on the road this season.

The Chiefs realize that Denver isn't going to lose to San Diego so they won't be winning the AFC South Division title. Both their game and the Broncos game kick off late so the Chiefs will be distracted doing some scoreboard watching. If the Broncos break out early against the Chargers - and they are double-digit favorites at some books - it wouldn't be surprising if Andy Reid starting resting starters in order to have them fresh for next week's playoffs. 

The Raiders really want to finish 8-8. All of their quotes this week point to that - and those quotes come across to me as sincere. I see the Raiders playing with a lot of energy and emotion. They are fortified with extra rest having played last Thursday. The Chiefs are banged up with their two best edge pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, questionable. 

Oakland led Kansas City by six points in the fourth quarter when they met four weeks ago. But Derek Carr had a meltdown with three turnovers and the Chiefs won by a misleading 34-20 score. Carr has proven himself this season making giant steps going from game manager to dangerous playmaker. I like him far more than Alex Smith. 

The Chiefs are 9-0 in their last nine games, 7-2 ATS. They also are plus 19 in turnover ratio during this time. They are more about precision and takeaways than some dominant opponent. The Raiders can definitely hang with them if not pull the outright upset. 

Not only do I like fading a Big Ten team against an SEC foe, but Northwestern doesn't have nearly enough offense to hang within double-digits of Tennessee.
Northwestern won some close games versus mediocre Big Ten opponents such as defeating Penn State by two, Purdue by seven and Illinois by 10 during its past four games. But the Wildcats were smashed 38-0 by Michigan and 40-10 by Iowa. The Wildcats were fortunate enough to not have to play against Ohio State and Michigan State. 
The Wildcats have strong defensive statistics, but I wasn't impressed with the offenses they faced to built those numbers. 
Tennessee came on strong to win its last five games. The Volunteers nearly beat Oklahoma and Alabama leading both in the fourth quarter falling to the Sooners in overtime. 
Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs improved from his sophomore season completing nearly 60 percent of his throws for more than 2,100 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also rushed for 623 yards and another nine touchdowns. Dobbs threw multiple touchdown passes to seven different receivers. 
Northwestern lacks Tennessee's explosiveness - and that includes special teams. The Volunteers had six return touchdowns, three each on punts and kickoffs. Evan Berry led the nation in kickoff returns with 38.3 yards per return and three kickoff return touchdowns. 

Clemson has won 16 in a row and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, last season in a bowl game despite missing Deshaun Watson. So I don't comprehend this line. At worst, these two teams are even.

Yes, three players are suspended for Clemson. The only one, though, with some impact is Deon Cain, the Tigers' second leading receiver. He's a talented deep threat, but the Tigers have other weapons. 
Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. He has a superb running back in Wayne Gallman and talented receivers. The Tigers averaged nearly 40 points on the season - and they did it facing tougher defenses than Oklahoma did squaring off against Florida State, Boston College, North Carolina State and Notre Dame. 
I like Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, too, but statistics are skewed from the Big 12 because it's such an offensive-oriented conference with several weak teams. Clemson has a very strong defense headed by lineman Shaq Lawson, who led the nation with 22 1/2 tackles for losses. 

USC is a team few opponents want to match up against in a bowl game. Wisconsin doesn't have the quarterback and skill level to beat the Trojans, especially when traveling to the West Coast to take on USC in its natural environs of Southern California. 
Big Ten teams aren't equipped to handle Pac-12 passing offenses and upper tier quarterbacks. USC has such a quarterback in Cody Kessler. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes this season. If you combine this season with last year, Kessler has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 67-to-11. 
Wisconsin's strength is its defense. But the Badgers don't have enough secondary depth to stop Kessler and a deep USC receiver group that had 10 players haul in double-digit receptions headed by dynamic sophomore Juju Smith-Schuster. He caught 85 passes for 1,389 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Badgers can't match that because they have a below average quarterback, Joel Stave. He's been picked off six times in his last four games. Mediocre quarterbacking, with the exception of one year or Russell Wilson, is the norm at Wisconsin. The Badgers have always been able to overcome that because of an outstanding ground attack. That hasn't happened this season, though. The Badgers never adequately replaced Melvin Gordon. Wisconsin finished 97th in rushing yards. 
Wisconsin failed to beat a winning team this season. That's telling. USC had no bad losses except to Washington. The Trojans aren't as good as Stanford, Notre Dame and Oregon - all teams they lost to. But the Trojans are better than the Badgers with huge skill position edges at quarterback with Kessler, wide receiver with Smith-Schuster, all around player in Adoree Jackson and even running back with Ronald Jones II.  
USC has never lost to Wisconsin in six previous meetings. The Trojans have covered in nine of their last 12 games versus Big Ten schools. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS the last six times it has played in neutral site games.  

I've always given credit to Minnesota for being a well-coached feisty team. I like the Gophers - when they are 'dogs not favorites. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Mitch Leidner. He has just three more touchdown passes than interceptions on the season and completed less than 58 percent of his throws. Central Michigan has the far better quarterback, Cooper Rush, and the superior offense. Only 10 quarterbacks threw for more yards this season than Rush.
Rush threw for multiple touchdown passes in nine of 12 games. He has five players with 33 or more catches. Minnesota has an excellent secondary, but I like Rush especially on the fast track of indoor Ford Field.  
 Central Michigan should have a better following with this game being played in Detroit. Minnesota played two MAC schools and won by three points each time, beating Ohio and Kent State. Both Minnesota and Central Michigan played Kent State. Central Michigan beat Kent State, 27-14, while the Gophers nipped the Golden Flashes, 10-7.
The Chippewas are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Big Ten and 5-0 versus non-conference foes. 
After Jerry Kill was forced to step down to health issues, the Gophers went 1-4. They finished with only five wins, but earned a bowl bid based on their NCAA Academic Progress Report since not enough teams reached six wins necessary for bowl eligibility. So technically the Gophers don't even deserve to be here. I don't buy them as favorites against the caliber of quarterback they are facing and an opponent as feisty as they are.  

Given Arizona's home field advantage, the line is short here. Arizona ranks with Carolina and New England as one of the three best teams in football. Those three teams are complete teams without a weakness. The Packers are at a "B" level closer to "C" than "A" with their struggling passing attack. The Packers have been outgained on the season. 
Mike McCarthy rarely has led Green Bay to victory in games the Packers weren't expected to win. The Packers are just 17-16 in their last 33 away games with a losing spread mark in those games. This is Green Bay's second West Coast game in a row. 
The Cardinals are 25-4 with Carson Palmer under center. Palmer is backed by three good wide receivers, a reliable offensive line and exciting rookie David Johnson, who already has set a Cardinals first-year mark for most touchdowns in a season with a dozen. The Packers will be without their top cornerback, Sam Shields. 
The Cardinals rank in the top three in points scored, total yards and passing. They are 20-11 (65 percent) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians. The Packers are 3-10-1 ATS as underdogs since 2012.
Green Bay's passing attack is struggling and its ground attack remains inconsistent. Eddie Lacy is having a terrible season. Arizona's defense ranks in the top seven in fewest points allowed, yards given up and rush defense. The Cardinals have held seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground.
Arizona's pass defense style is tight man press coverage. The Packers' wide receivers have trouble getting separation. Randall Cobb is Green Bay's only receiving playmaker with Jordy Nelson sidelined. So the Packers are going to have problems with this type of defense preferring soft Cover-2 zone types. 
Aaron Rodgers isn't on same page with McCarthy continually being frustrated by the Packers' regression in the passing game. Rodgers also will be without his blindside protector as left tackle David Bakhtiari is out. 

Much is being made of this being coach Frank Beamer's final game for Virginia Tech after 29 years. Truth be told, Beamer should have retired a few years ago because the Hokies have been going downhill. They were just 6-6 this season not clinching a bowl berth until their final regular season game. They are just 16-15 during their last 31 games and 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. 
Tulsa was one of the most improved teams in the country under first-year head coach Phil Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane are very dangerous offensively under the innovative Montgomery and they've been coming on as the players became more comfortable in his system scoring at least 38 points in all but one of their last six games. 
On the season, the Golden Hurricane average 35.9 points per game. Only 13 teams averaged more yards per game than the Golden Hurricane's 502 yards. They also ranked 11th in passing behind quarterback Dane Evans, who has a top target in Keyarris Garrett. Garrett had the second most receiving yards in the FBS with 1,451. 
I detect that Virginia Tech could be a little tight for this matchup trying to give Beamer a sendoff, while Tulsa will be loose without any pressure enjoying their first bowl game in three years. The Hokies also will be without three suspended seniors - starting linebacker Deon Clarke and two reserve receivers. 

Cincinnati hopes to rebound from a disappointing season with a win here in the Hawaii Bowl. Don't look for that to happen. The matchup, spot, coaching and intangibles all clearly point to San Diego State, which enters this matchup red-hot winning nine in a row while coming within 1 1/2 points of also being 9-0 ATS. 
The Bearcats have regressed going from Brian Kelly to Tommy Tuberville. The Bearcats finished a disappointing third in the weak American Athletic Conference. Their loaded offense couldn't compensate for a terrible defense. Cincinnati lost to five of the six good teams on its schedule falling to Temple as a home favorite, Memphis, BYU, Houston and to South Florida by 38 points just two games ago. Only twice did the Bearcats win on the road and that came by three points against East Carolina on a field goal at the gun and a four-point win against Miami of Ohio when they were laying three touchdowns. 
Tuberville brings no confidence. Not only are the Bearcats traveling five time zones - their previous longest trip was to Provo, Utah where they lost by two touchdowns to BYU - but are 0-2 the past two seasons in bowl games under Tuberville. Cincinnati lost by 14 points as a short favorite last season to Virginia Tech and fell by 22 points to North Carolina two seasons ago as a short 'dog. 
San Diego State is far less likely to be distracted and bothered playing in Hawaii. They've won and covered this year and in 2013 at Hawaii. The Aztecs beat the Warriors, 28-14, in a pick'em game back in October when Hawaii was competitive. Unlike Cincinnati, San Diego State won't be leaving winter weather to travel and their time zone change is three hours shorter.
Most important is the matchup factors favor San Diego State, too. 
The line is shorter than I thought it would be possibly due to senior Maxwell Smart not starting for San Diego State due to an ACL injury he suffered two games ago. I'm expecting Smart to play, but I'm fine, too, if backup redshirt freshman Christian Chapman goes. He led the Aztecs to a 27-24 victory against Air Force in the Mountain West Conference title game passing for more than 200 yards.
The Aztecs aren't about throwing, though. They are about defense and D.J. Pumphrey, one of the top running backs in the country and the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. He's rushed for 3,421 yards and scored 39 touchdowns the past two years. Cincinnati surrendered more than five yards per run, ranking 92nd in the nation in rush defense. 
San Diego State ranked in the top 10 defensively in fewest points, yards and rushing yards. By contrast, Cincinnati's defense ranked 89th in fewest points and 82nd in total yards. Redshirt freshman Hayden Moore will be making only his third start for Cincinnati. Gunner Kiel, who had started 23 of the Bearcats' last 25 games, won't play due to personal reasons.  
Moore has some excellent receiving targets, but not only is he facing a top defense but one of the more unconventional ones as San Diego State coach Rocky Long employs a unique 3-3-5 scheme. Moore can expect heavy pressure. 
Add it all up and San Diego State is an easy call. 

Only once in seven games have the Cardinals lost on the road. They have the passing attack and pass defense to easily cover this number against the Eagles and win their eighth consecutive game.
Arizona is first in yards per game and No. 2 in scoring averaging 31.2 points. Carson Palmer has thrown for 31 touchdown passes, second-highest in the league. The Eagles have surrendered 29 touchdown throws, second-most in the league. In their last six games, the Eagles have permitted 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions as injuries make their already ineffective secondary worse. Palmer has a healthy receiving group and should have a clean pocket as the Eagles have only managed one sack or fewer in three of their past four games. 
Palmer can rely, too, on big-play David Johnson as his featured running back. The Eagles have yielded an average of 4.92 yards per carry to running backs during their last seven games. 
Arizona is 24-4 with Palmer under center. The Cardinals also are 19-11 (63%) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians, who has extra prep time this week with the Cardinals having played last Thursday. 
The Eagles need an "A" game to hang in against the Cardinals. They haven't produced one all season. The Eagles' ground attack has turned out to be overrated and is a mess right now. Arizona has held six of its last seven opponents to under 100 yards rushing. 
The Eagles haven't scored more than 23 points since Week 9. They struggle against tight man coverage, which the Cardinals are talented enough to play. The Cardinals rank fifth in the NFL in pass defense. Only six teams surrender fewer points per game than the Cardinals, which hold foes to 19.4 points a game. 

Dallas can't win with a quarterback as bad as Matt Cassel under center against a quality opponent such as the Jets. The Cowboys are 1-6 in Cassel's seven starts. All of the losses except one have been by more than three points. 
Dallas can't win outside of its weak NFC East Division. They are 1-7 in non-division games. 
Dallas is bad at home. The Cowboys are 2-8, including losing five in a row, during their last 10 home contests. 
The Jets underachieved the last couple of seasons. A main reason for that was the poor coaching of Rex Ryan. That's changed under Todd Bowles, a much better coach than Ryan. The Jets have playoff talent. Bowles is getting the most out of it.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a career season. He's played as well as any quarterback during the last three weeks posting 100-plus ratings in each game during this span with a combined 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Chicago is fired-up and angry after blowing a home game to San Francisco this past Sunday. I like the Bears' coaching edge and situation advantage against Washington, which is traveling on a short week following a home loss on Monday night to division rival Dallas. 
The Redskins have been terrible on the road losing the past nine times while going 2-7 ATS. They are 0-5 away this season outscored by 76 points in these matchups for an average losing margin of 15.2 points. 
During the Jay Gruden era, the Redskins are 1-12 on the road, 4-9 ATS. They have lost by 10 or more points in eight of those 12 road contests. 
Kirk Cousins has a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road with a completion rate of less than 62 percent. The Bears rank No. 2 in pass defense.
Not only do I like the Bears' passing game more with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery, but also their ground attack with a two-headed monster of Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford. 
The Redskins are a ground-and-pound team, but they don't run well nor stop the run. The Redskins rank 26th in run defense and 25th in rushing. 

It's difficult enough being the road team for a Thursday night game. It's especially difficult for the Vikings traveling to the desert following a mentally and physically draining 38-7 home loss to Seattle this past Sunday.
Arizona is 17-4 under Bruce Arians when playing at the University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals have won 14 of their last 16 home games when Carson Palmer has been under center. Palmer has a 38-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in these games. 
Sparked by Palmer, an MVP candidate, the Cardinals rank first in the NFL in yards and points per game. They draw a battered Vikings defense missing three of their key defenders in injured safety Harrison Smith, nose tackle Linval Joseph and linebacker Anthony Barr. That's too much for the Vikings to overcome especially on a short week with long travel involved when their is limited time to make adjustments. 
The Vikings lack the necessary strong passing game to keep up with Palmer and high-powered Cardinals offense. 

The Cardinals have revenge for a frustrating 24-22 loss to the Rams in Week 4 when they had to settle for four field goals in four touchdown-less red zone trips. 
Arizona still is playing at an elite level, while the wheels have come off for the Rams. They've lost four in a row and there's talk Jeff Fisher could be out as coach. 
Carson Palmer ranks among the top three in passer rating, touchdown throws and yards passing. The Cardinals have won in 22 of his last 26 starts. He has a full complement of receivers now, too, with Michael Floyd and John Brown healthy.
The Rams have the worst passing attack. Neither Nick Foles nor Case Keenum, who is likely to be back under center, is NFL-starter quality. The Rams try to compensate with running back Todd Gurley. But with a decimated offensive line and defenses keying on him, Gurley has been held to an average of less than 44 yards rushing per game and 2.8 yards per carry during his last three games. Arizona has a top five run defense.
St. Louis' defense is getting worn down from having to carry such a weak offense. A strong pass rush has been their calling card. However, the Rams have managed just four sacks in their last four games. 
The Rams have one of the weaker home fields in the league due to rumors of their moving and their poor record. 
This game sets up well for the Cardinals and the line figures to keep growing. So my advice is to lock in now. 

So why back a San Diego team that is 2-8 and has lost six in a row as a monster 50-Dime play? A combination of Philip Rivers, a due factor and the Jaguars being overpriced.
Jacksonville doesn't beat teams. Opponents lose to them. There's a difference. San Diego is approaching this matchup as a challenge and a test of character. Non-division foes usually treat the Jaguars with overconfidence.
Yes, the Jaguars are better than last season. Their defense is more competitive and Blake Bortles has improved in his second season. But the Jaguars still are not very good. They've gone six consecutive games with at least one turnover. Bortles is always live for a pick-six and has been sacked more than any other quarterback during the last two seasons. The Chargers' pass rush has gotten better recording 18 sacks during their last seven games. 
Rivers makes the Chargers competitive. He's having another super season throwing for the second-most yards in the league while leading the NFL in completions and throwing for 19 touchdowns. 
San Diego was blown out by the Chiefs in their last game. People remember that. Maybe they should also recall the Chargers losing to the then unbeaten Bengals by five points, nearly forcing overtime against the Packers when they were stopped at the 3-yard line on fourth down and goal at the end of the game and falling to Baltimore on the last play of the game. All of those games were on the road.
When it comes to coaching, I like Mike McCoy much better than Gus Bradley. McCoy is innovative and tough on non-division foes not familiar with him. Bradley is too conservative, one of those many coaches who plays not to lose rather than win. 

Michigan State didn't do Michigan any favors beating Ohio State last week ending the Buckeyes' 23-game winning streak. The Buckeyes are going to be super focused now and ready for this game and not just because of the long-time intense rivalry. Ohio State has proven itself on the road covering 71 percent of its last 56 road games. 
Jim Harbaugh has been everything Michigan could have hoped for this season restoring the Wolverines back into elite status. But Michigan isn't in Ohio State's class yet. 
The Buckeyes have won 10 of the last 11 in the series. Urban Meyer won't hold a coaching edge like he has on past Michigan coaches, but he does still have a talent advantage.
Ezekiel Elliott is going to get the ball a lot. He didn't show a lot of class after the Buckeyes fell to the Spartans, but he's one of the best running backs in the country. Elliott has rushed for 3,336 yards the past two seasons and scored 35 touchdowns. Michigan couldn't stop Indiana on the ground two weeks ago as Jordan Howard ran for 238 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries.. Ohio State has a better ground attack than the Hooisers. The Wolverines aren't going to be able to control Elliott, who will set things up for J.T. Barrett. 
 I'm not a huge fan of Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock, even though he has played well lately. He's not good enough to carry the Wolverines if they don't establish at least a semblance of a ground attack, which I don't see them doing. The Buckeyes have an extremely physical line. De'Veon Smith is the Wolverines' starting running back, but he's a grinder not suited to attack a physical defense. 

The Buckeyes rank 30th in run defense and fifth in pass defense. Only two players in the country have more career sacks than Ohio State's Joey Bosa, who has 25. 

Sometimes the best handicap formula is just the most obvious. Carolina is better than Dallas and it's not even close. 
I understand timing is very important in NFL games. It's not always who you play, but when you play. 
The Cowboys are 3-0 when Tony Romo has been under center. He'll be playing Thursday and shouldn't have any rust after returning last Sunday after missing seven games. The Cowboys are home and in a desperate spot being 3-7. 
I would be surprised if Dallas didn't put forth a full, focused effort and played a good game. I'm expecting that. But it's not going to be enough to beat Carolina. 
It's not just happenstance that the Panthers are 14-1 in their last 15 games. They have a tremendous defense, much superior's to Dallas. Carolina ranks in the top eight in all of the most important defensive categories, including rating in the top five in allowing the fewest yards and points per game. Linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman are two of the best defensive players in the league. 
The Panthers have outgained their opponent in 15 of their last 17 games. It's impossible to predict turnovers, but the Panthers are No. 1 in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. Dallas is second-to-last with a minus nine turnover ratio.
Thanks to Cam Newton's MVP-candidate type season, the Panthers are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at 29.9 points per game. Newton has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his last 15 games. Jonathan Stewart is a much better running back than recycled Darren McFadden. The Panthers received some good news this week in that left guard Andrew Norwell will be back after missing the last three games. He could be the Panthers' first or second-best offensive lineman. 

Not only are the Texans on a short week in an emotionally distracting week following their Monday road upset win against the Bengals, but backup T.J. Yates is their quarterback for this game.
Brian Hoyer is near the bottom among starting quarterbacks. But Yates is far worse. He's a game-managing, dump-off passer who won't have his former security blanket, Arian Foster.
This is a circle-the-wagon game for the Jets, who have lost three of their last four. They have the better skill position players and the superior defense.
The Jets have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played a week ago from Thursday. That's allowed Nick Mangold and a beaten-up secondary to recover along with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who formerly played for the Texans. 

The Seahawks haven't lost a game coming off a bye since 2012. I don't see them losing at home either in this matchup. Seattle is 4-4. Arizona is 6-2. Obviously this is a must-win spot for Seattle. 
The Cardinals haven't faced a defense of this caliber on the road all season. Their offense is good, but not as powerful as the statistics show. Arizona has won five of its six games against defenses that are ranked among the bottom nine - Saints, Browns, 49ers, Lions and Ravens. 
The one really good defense the Cardinals went against was the Rams - and that was at home. The Cardinals still lost that game. Seattle's defense is picking up steam. Look for the "Legion of Boom" to be in full force. 
The bye week came at a good time for Seattle, which was in need of regrouping. Their offensive line should perform better with left tackle Russell Okung expected back. Then there is the Seahawks' dominant home field advantage. During the last four years, the Seahawks are 28-3 at CenturyLink Field, 20-10-1 ATS. 

Everything is in place for Washington State to pull the upset and defeat UCLA. Even if that doesn't happen, the Cougars should definitely be able to hang in. To get double-digits is a nice bonus. 
I like UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen. But I really like Washington State sophomore quarterback Luke Falk. He leads the country in passing yards with 3,376. He's also tied for second in touchdown throws with 33 against just seven interceptions. 
The Bruins defense has been hit hard by injuries. There isn't a senior starter left. The Bruins shut out Oregon State last week. I actually believe that works in Washington State's favor. Not only did it perhaps play a part in this inflated line, but it gives the Bruins a false sense of confidence. 
Oregon State has a depleted offense. The Cougars are cooking behind Falk. The team is comfortable in Mike Leach's high octane system this being his fourth season in Pullman. The Bruins haven't had experience dealing with Leach's unique schemes being so young on defense. 
Washington State has won seven of its last eight games while also going 7-1 ATS. The Cougars are 4-2 in the Pac-12 with their defeats occurring to California by six and Stanford by two. The Cougars led by more than a touchdown in the second half against both of those teams. 
Washington State has covered all six of its Pac-12 games. The Cougars are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. Playing in the Rose Bowl is a big deal to them. UCLA has covered only one of its last six home games and is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times as home chalk. 

San Diego isn't nearly good enough to overcome its multitude of injuries to beat many teams by more than a field goal, including the Bears. 
The Chargers have lost six of their last seven game. They are on a four-game losing streak. The Chargers' two victories have come by a total of eight points. Those wins were against the Lions and Browns, whose combined record is 3-14. 
Chicago has been better than perceived thanks to excellent coaching from head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, both of whom came from the Broncos and are very familiar with San Diego. The Chargers, though, aren't so familiar with the Bears, who they last played in 2011. 
Each of the Bears' last four games have been decided by three or fewer points. Jay Cutler has been much better this season. He's been aided greatly by the well-respected Gase. Having Alshon Jeffery back makes a huge difference for Chicago's offense. The Chargers have surrendered 24 or more points in every one of their games. 
San Diego has zero rushing touchdowns in its last seven games. Chicago hasn't yielded a rushing touchdown in its last five games. Philip Rivers is having another super season, but the Chargers are not balanced and minus their best wide receiver, Keenan Allen. 
Chicago won't have Matt Forte. But Jeremy Langford is an underrated backup and Chicago is far healthier than the Chargers.
San Diego will be without its left tackle and center. The Chargers also could be down a third starting offensive lineman as left guard Orlando Franklin is doubtful. Tight end Ladarius Green isn't likely to play either. 
The Chargers are beat up, too, defensively. Linebackers Manti Te'o and Denzel Perryman are out. Three other key defenders - lineman Corey Liuget, cornerback Jason Verrett and safety Eric Weddle - are questionable. 
Unlike the Bears, the Chargers have not had their bye yet. That comes next week. They are battered and worn down. It's too much to ask them to cover a point spread of more than a field goal. 

I've never been in the habit of laying points with UNLV, but circumstances make this a bargain spot to back the Rebels.

UNLV is much improved under first-year head coach Tony Sanchez. He's been the best Rebels coach in nearly 30 years. 
The Rebels are far better offensively with quarterback Blake Decker in the lineup. He returned last week from missing two games with a shoulder injury and helped the Rebels hang with Boise State for more than three quarters before their defense caved. 
Now the Rebels step way down in class to host a bone weary Hawaii team in disarray following a 58-7 loss to Air Force last week, the team's worst home loss in school history. Hawaii coach Norm Chow was fired right after that defeat. 
The Warriors return to the mainland for the fifth time in seven weeks. This also marks the Warriors' 10th consecutive week of playing. They have not had a bye all season. 
This would be brutal on any team, but it hits the Warriors even harder because they are undersized and lack depth. Their defense couldn't stand up to Air Force running the ball 83 times. Hawaii's defense was on the field for 45 minutes. Before that game, Hawaii faced five opponents in a row who ran the ball 50 or more times. 

While Hawaii is dealing with extreme fatigue issues and being in disarray with a coaching change this late in the season, UNLV is in revenge mode. The Rebels lost in controversial fashion to the Warriors last year on the road, 37-35, when they were penalized twice for excessive celebration following a go-ahead touchdown with 15 seconds left. The Rebels believed they were homered in that game by a slow moving clock official. Hawaii pulled out that victory with a touchdown pass on the final play.  
So don't expect the Rebels to be sympathetic to the Warriors and their sad plight. 

Toledo is unbeaten at 7-0. But I'm not convinced the Rockets are better than Northern Illinois. 
The Huskies very well could have the better skill position players and defense. They are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. This includes a 7-1-1 ATS mark the past nine times they've been a road underdog.  
Northern Illinois quarterback Drew Hare has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 142 quarterback rating. Toledo quarterback Phillip Ely has a 15-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 128.9 passer rating. 
The Huskies' three losses came to Central Michigan by 10 even though they outgained Central Michigan by 41 yards, by seven on the road to Ohio State and by three on the road to Boston College. 
The Huskies also have defeated the Rockets during the past five meetings.