Some people are scared of road favorites in the NFL. This is a prime example of why you should not be afraid. The Vikings are vastly superior to the Jets.  Minnesota started the season slow, but is starting to come on. The Vikings' defense is returning to their dominant ways. They have the pass rushers to overwhelm the Jets' mediocre offensive line and the veteran secondary that can cause rookie Sam Darnold problems. Darnold will be without his favorite receiver, too, with Quincy Enunwa out with an ankle injury.  Kirk Cousins is having an excellent season, Adam Thielen may be the most reliable wide receiver in the NFL. He's the only one this season who has had 100 plus receiving yards in every game. The Vikings also got their ground game last week. It could be bolstered if Dalvin Cook is ready to return. The Vikings' offensive line is improving. It can hold their own against the Jets' defensive line.  The Jets are stepping up in class after having faced the Broncos and Colts.  I also give a strong checkmark to the Vikings in coaching with Mike Zimmer over Todd Bowles. 

This spot sets up well for Green Bay. The Packers are off a bad road loss to the Lions. Green Bay is frustrated. The Packers have a bye the following week so they are going to hold nothing back in front of national TV audience at home. There will be a strong sense of urgency for the Packers in this matchup, something that has been lacking from them. They need to keep pace in the competitive NFC North Division and will not come out flat.

No, not without Jimmy Garoppolo can the 49ers lay this many points, especially given their battered condition.  San Francisco is 1-11 in their last 12 games when Garoppolo hasn't been its starting quarterback. C.J. Beathard is back behind center with Garoppolo done for the season. The 49ers also are without tailback Jerick McKinnon and maybe their best offensive lineman as Joe Staley was injured this past Sunday.  The Cardinals are 0-4, the lone remaining winless team in the NFL. They are desperate for a victory. The 49ers haven't defeated the Cardinals since Jim Harbaugh was their coach.  Arizona has improved each week. The Cardinals lost at the gun, 20-17, to the Seahawks this past Sunday and were leading the Bears with under five minutes left two weeks ago before losing, 16-14.  The Cardinals are far more competive with rookie Josh Rosen at quarterback rather than timid Sam Bradford. Rosen played a good game against the Seahawks in his first NFL start. He was 15-of-27 for 180 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He had completions to seven different receivers. His statistics would have looked better if not for five dropped passes.  Rosen faces a 49ers defense that lacks edge pass rushers and has multiple injuries to their secondary. 

Patrick Mahomes may be the league MVP through the first two weeks with his NFL record 10 touchdown passes.  But there is a flip side to the Chiefs: Their defense. It's terrible. Kansas City ranks last defensively in yards and passing yards. The Chiefs are 29th in scoring defense giving up 32.5 points per game.  The 49ers have become respectable since Jimmy Garoppolo took over as their starting quarterback. San Francisco is 6-1 in those games. I like the 49ers much more in an underdog role than as a favorite. I find them feisty and well-coached under Kyle Shanahan. They have covered in seven of their last 10 road games. The lone loss in Garoppolo's 49ers starts came opening week to the Vikings, 24-16, on the road. San Francisco could have won that game, but self-destructed.  Garoppolo was under heavy pass rush pressure from the Vikings. The Chiefs don't have a strong pass rush. They have only two sacks. Their secondary remains rudderless without star safety Eric Berry, who is expected to miss a third straight game due to a lingering heel injury.  The 49ers have a well-designed offense that can put up points. Matt Breida surprisingly leads the NFC in rushing. San Francisco has the defensive advantage here. DeForest Buckner has more sacks than the entire Chiefs team.  Yes, the Chiefs are explosive. There are going to be points scored here that's for sure. But San Francisco's defense is going to look better with the return of linebackers Reuben Foster from suspension and Malcolm Smith from a hamstring injury. Foster has the potential to be a difference maker both as a run-stopper and blitzer. 
  

I get that the Seahawks are far from what they used to be and they have three key players out - Doug Baldwin and linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. That leaves Russell Wilson, safety Earl Thomas and guard J.R. Sweezy as the only players left from their winning Super Bowl team of five years ago.  But I'm not buying this steam and public love for the Bears. Not as chalk of more than a field goal. This is foreign territory for the Bears. They aren't used to being on the national stage with all the pressure on them. Since 2015, Chicago has been a home favorite seven times. The Bears are 1-6 SU and ATS in those games with the lone victory coming against the Browns, who have failed to win in their last 19 games.  Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are used to success. Wilson is a top-five quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in--progress who I don't think is any good being more runner than passer. Matt Nagy has coached one NFL game and he made a lot of questionable decisions in that opening week loss to the Packers when his Bears blew a 20-0 lead letting a wounded Aaron Rodgers beat his team.  Carroll is an above average NFL coach. Nagy has much to prove. Trubisky is in his second season, but remains very inexperienced. He only started 13 games in college and his coach last year, John Fox, did him no favors with his ultra-conservative methods. Trubisky misses a lot of reads and is not an instinctive player. Seattle always has had excellent defensive coaching. The Seahawks will be ready to defend against Trubisky. The Packers defense held the Bears offense without a touchdown after Chicago's first drive.  Helping matters for the Seahawks is newly signed linbacker Mychal Kendricks. He's a good player, but is poison because of pleading guilty to insider trading. He very well could get prison time for that. The NFL suspended Kendricks for breaking the law, but he's allowed to play because he's appealing the suspension. He's expected to play tonight.   Wilson is good enough to beat the Bears just like Rodgers did. Wilson almost led Seattle to an upset road win against the Broncos last week in a 27-24 loss. He threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns against a much better secondary than the Bears. Baldwin played just 11 snaps before getting hurt. Wilson accomplished that without Baldwin catching a pass, playing with unproven running backs and a still-evolving offensive line that may be better this week. Wilson is a magician who you can't preplan against. If it weren't for a desperation final play turnover, Wilson would have finished the Broncos game with a quarterback rating of 105.3.  Baldwin isn't the Seahawks' only decent receiving weapon. Wilson has veteran Brandon Marshall, who still has some juice, speedster Tyler Lockett and promising rookie tight end Will Dissly, who showed well against Denver. Marshall and Dissly also are excellent blockers.  The Seahawks also have a secret weapon - rookie punter Michael Dickson. He was tremendous during preseason and he continued that opening week averaging 59 yards on six punts with a 57.5 net average with four of the punts downed inside the 20. This wasn't just punting in mountain weather. Dickson is that good.  Carroll has a tremendous record in prime time games with the Seahawks going 22-4-1. Seattle doesn't have nearly the team it had when it compiled many of those prime time victores but it does have big-game, big atmosphere experience. That's important. So is having the far better quarterback. That combination will help get Seahawks bettors the money.    

The 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo step way down in class here after opening against the Vikings in Minnesota last week. The 49ers still could have pulled the upset if not self-destructing deep inside Minnesota territory. Now they face a far easier defense and an offense that remains one-dimensional. Garoppolo has lost just once in eight NFL starts. The spot sets up well, too, for the 49ers. The Lions last played in California opening week of 2015. They are making the long journey on a short week following their Monday home game against the Jets. Detroit will be on an off-surface, too, playing outdoors on grass instead of indoors on carpet.  The 49ers have owned the Lions at home. The last time they lost to Detroit at home was 1975, a string of 12 victories in a row. San Francisco's held five of its last eight home opponents to 18 points or fewer last season. The line has gone up since I released the play, but I like it strong up through a touchdown. 

Seattle is one of those teams in must-win mode Sunday. If the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and Carolina defeats or ties Atlanta then Seattle makes the playoffs. The Panthers-Falcons game has been moved back to start at the same time as the Cardinals-Seahawks matchup. The Panthers are in the postseason but have motivation to beat the Falcons as they have a chance to gain a No. 2 seeding and a first-round bye with a victory.   I don't see the Seahawks losing to the Cardinals, who are extremely banged-up, have performed poorly on the road and have a stiff at quarterback in Drew Stanton.  Russell Wilson is in the MVP discussion having his finest season. The Cardinals have a strong run defense, but are mediocre versus the pass. Wilson has the receiving depth and mobility to be highly effective against the Cardinals defense.  Arizona has has lost five of its seven road contests while going 1-6 ATS. The Cardinals' two away victories were against the 3-12 Colts in overtime and the 49ers, who were winless at the time.  In their last three games, the Cardinals have managed just two touchdowns. Their offensive line is decimated with D.J. Humphries, Jared Veldheer, Mike Iupati and Earl Watford all out. Seattle's defensive front seven should easily win the battle of the trenches. Arizona is down to third-stringer Kerwynn Williams as its main runner with David Johnson and Adrian Peterson out.  Seattle has maybe the toughest outdoor venue for opponents in the NFL. The Seahawks have revenge for the Cardinals beating them on Christmas Eve last year that knocked them out of the No. 2 seed. The Seahawks have a special dislike for Stanton still recalling his sideline celebration from four years ago when the Cardinals defeated them at Century Link Field.  The 33-year-old Stanton wasn't good then and he's not good now. He's completed only 51.2 percent of his throws, which is right in line with his career percent. He is an inaccurate, career journeyman who lacks pass protection and a ground game.  The Cardinals are tied for fifth in the NFL in giveaways with 24, including turning the ball over twice during each of their last five games. The hard-hitting Seahawks defense, headed by Bobby Wagner and Earl Thomas, can take advantage. The Legion of Boom is wounded, but far from dead holding the Cowboys to no touchdowns this past Sunday despite the game being played in Dallas and Ezekiel Elliott's return from suspension.Now the Seahawks are home against a much weaker offense. The line has climbed since I released this play, but I see this as a total kill spot for the Seahawks.  

Missouri is overrated and Texas' Tom Herman is one of the great underdog coaches.  The Tigers haven't beaten a good team all season. All of their SEC victories were against sub .500 teams.  Texas has a much better defense than Missouri and I like Herman far more than Tigers coach Barry Odom.  If you go back to when he was Ohio State's offensive coordinator and go through when he was the head man at Houston and now at Texas, Herman is an astounding 15-1 ATS (94%) as an underdog. The Longhorns rank sixth in the nation in run defense. They held five opponents to 14 points or less.  Texas' defense will be able to handle Missouri's spread attack having faced multiple spread offenses this season along with great quarterbacks Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph. Texas went 3-0 ATS against those quarterbacks holding USC to 24 points in regulation, Oklahoma to under 30 points and Oklahoma State to 10 points in regulation, which was 36 points under the Cowboys' season average.  The Longhorns have their quarterbacks healthy and are facing an inferior defensive team. 

OK, I'm sold now that Cam Newton is the MVP Cam Newton of two years ago. He's thrown for 651 yards and accounted for seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. Carolina is averaging 30 points during this span.  The Eagles' secondary is well below average and their pass rush is down without injured Fletcher Cox. He's missed the last two games and isn't likely to return to the lineup on a short week.  Carolina has held five of its last seven opponents to 20 points or less at home. The Eagles are short on running backs with Wendall Smallwood injured and Darren Sproles out for the season. The Eagles also will be without right tackle Lane Johnson, one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL. He suffered a concussion this past Sunday. Philadelphia has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away contests.  It's a big disadvantage for the road team playing on Thursday because of the short week. In the Eagles' case, this is made worse by facing a non-division foe. 

The Bengals are down this year. But they still are two levels higher than the Browns, who are 1-18 in their last 19 games.  The Bengals have dominated this series winning and covering the last five times with every win during this span occurring by at least 13 points.  Cincinnati has a much stronger defense than Cleveland and its skill position players are superior, too. The Browns have no wide receiver near the level of A.J. Green. Corey Coleman is Cleveland's top wideout and he's out. Joe Mixon also is better than any running back Cleveland has.  I'm not an Andy Dalton fan, but he rates much higher than rookie Deshone Kizer. Dalton has thrown nine TD passes with no interceptions during his last four games against the Browns. The Browns were missing their best defensive player, linebacker Jamie Collins, last week due to a concussion. It's an added plus for the Bengals if Collins is out again. 

The Cowboys couldn't solve the Giants' defense last year averaging just 13 points versus New York in two games. The Giants won both of those games. They've now covered five in a row against Dallas winning three and losing the other two by just one and three points, respectively.  The Giants have many of their same starters back on defense, including a strong secondary that is able to negate Dez Bryant and take advantage of Dak Prescott's inexperience. On the flip side, the Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Eli Manning can exploit with his improved receiving group that now includes Brandon Marshall to go with Odell Beckham Jr. and emerging Sterling Shepard.  A lot went Dallas' way last year. You could make a strong argument the Giants are the better team. They were a hot 9-2 down the stretch last season before being eliminated in the playoffs by the Packers. Dallas' home field advantage is not worth this many points as the Giants very well could win this game straight-up. 

I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. 

Steelers minus 10 hosting Dolphins

Minnesota lacks the quarterback, pass defense and strength of schedule to stay within single digits of Washington State.  Washington State's Luke Falk is one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He's completed 71 percent of his passes for 4,204 yards with a 37-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Cougars also have a decent ground attack and their best defense in the five years Mike Leach has been their coach.  Falk has a versatile group of receivers with 10 difference players catching at least one touchdown pass. The Cougars rank No. 2 in passing yards per game.  Minnesota ranks 70th in pass defense. The Gophers also had the second-worst pass defense in the Big Ten, a conference not known for their quarterbacks. Making matters worse for the Gophers is that several of their defensive backs, including two starters, are among 10 players suspended for the game.  The Gophers missed practices by threatening to boycott the game in protest of the suspensions, which stemmed from an incident in an off-campus apartment back in early September. The threaten boycott never materialized. The Gophers don't have the speed nor talent to defend against Washington State's high-powered offense. Minnesota hasn't faced this type of fast-tempo style playing a weak schedule being in the Big Ten.  The Big Ten has been terrible against the spread in bowl play going 32-45 ATS, including 2-5 ATS last season and 0-1 ATS this season with Maryland losing straight-up as a short favorite against Boston College. Minnesota's weak offense can't keep up with Washington State. Mitch Leidner threw just seven touchdown passes and had 12 interceptions. He's one of the weaker quarterbacks in the Big Ten.  

The marketplace has bet this game up - and the move is right. Both teams are strong offensively, but Old Dominion has the superior defense and an edge in this setting.

Expect the Seahawks to take no prisoners here in a double revenge spot against the Panthers, who beat them in the regular season and playoffs last season. 
The Seahawks are at their finest during the home stretch going 18-4 SU, 16-6 ATS from November through January during the regular season. 
Seattle has the best outdoor home advantage in football and the Seahawks fans will be rocking here in this nationally televised matchup. The Seahawks have gotten healthier while the Panthers are demoralized and extremely banged-up.
Cam Newton is having a down season. The Panthers haven't been able to protect him giving up 32 sacks. Carolina is down to its third-string center. Seattle has star safety Earl Thomas back and elite pass rusher Michael Bennett should be back, too. 
Russell Wilson is finally healthy. That makes him a dual threat. He'll take advantage of a Carolina defense missing its leading tackler and emotional leader, Luke Kuechly, top pass rusher Mario Addison, who leads the team with nine sacks, and free safety Kurt Coleman. All three are injured. 

The host has won all three Mountain West Conference title games. Look for Wyoming to contribute to that trend. 
Wyoming averages nine more points per game than San Diego State and the Aztecs' defense has vanished the last two weeks. 
Just two weeks ago, Wyoming nipped San Diego State, 34-33, in Laramie as 10-point 'dogs. The score shouldn't have been that close, but San Diego State returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and scored another touchdown on a Hail Mary pass. Wyoming outgained San Diego State by 97 yards and had 12 more first downs. Now the Aztecs have to return to Laramie where the temperature forecast is for the teens-to-low 20's. Not exactly San Diego beach weather. 
Wyoming has proven itself at home beating Northern Illinois, Air Force, Boise State along with San Diego State. The Cowboys were at least a touchdown 'dog in all of those games. 
After losing to Wyoming, San Diego State got buried by Colorado State, 63-31, at home last week. The Rams picked up 507 yards in that game. 
The Aztecs heavily rely on running back Donnell Pumphrey. But he's gotten worn down having carried the ball 305 times this season. Pumphrey hasn't run for more than 76 yards in each of the last two games. 
Wyoming has its own outstanding runner, Brian Hill, plus playmaking deep threat Tanner Gentry and quarterback Josh Allen. 

Colorado's had a great season, but now the Buffaloes meet their Waterloo here in the Pac-12 title game.
Washington has the conference's top defense yielding just 17.8 points per game, a big edge in speed and skill position players with Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year quarterback Jake Browning and a special teams advantage in both returns and place-kicking. 
The Huskies also have big-game experience, which Colorado lacks. Add this all up and the Huskies win by double-digits. 
Washington is the fresher team off consecutive blowout victories against Arizona State and Washington State. Colorado is off a tough physical 27-22 home win against Utah last week. The week before the Buffaloes came from trailing late in the third quarter to win against Washington State, 38-24. 
The Huskies have won their bowl game in three of the past four years. Their coach, Chris Peterson, has a history of big game having coached at Boise State. 
Colorado hasn't been on the national stage in years. The Buffaloes' last bowl appearance was nine years ago. Their coach, Mike MacIntyre, did a great job this season but he doesn't have Peterson's bowl and big game resume. 
Style points matter here, too, for the Huskies. They want a college football playoff berth so a big spread win would help that cause. The Huskies already have beaten nine opponents by at least 24 points. 

Dallas is on a tremendous roll, but that stops here. The Cowboys aren't that strong to be laying this number on the road against this classy of a defense and against this strong of a home field, which ranks among the best in football. 
Stefon Diggs is expected to play, which is huge for the Vikings. Sam Bradford's short passing game will be a lot more effective at home and with Diggs in the lineup. The Cowboys do not have a strong secondary. Their defense relies on their offense to play ball control. 
The Vikings give up the second-fewest points and third-fewest yards. The short time frame also hurts the visiting Cowboys. 

Talent-wise the Packers are better than the Eagles. Philadelphia is tough at home, but Green Bay is way overdue to play better. I see that occurring here as the Packers are improved on offense and their defense is getting key players back. Clay Matthews played last week and cornerback Damarious Randall and linebacker Jake Ryan are expected back Monday. 
The Packers have outstanding wide receiver depth. Cornerback is a major weakness for the Eagles. One player Aaron Rodgers will look to target is seventh-round rookie draft choice Jalen Mills. Rodgers has the receiving depth to go after Mills with Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. It's a plus for Green Bay's offense that tight end Jared Cook is back. James Starks provides enough of a running threat for the Eagles to respect play-action. 
Carson Wentz lacks the playmakers Green Bay has. He's inconsistent as most rookies are and won't be able to match Rodgers. The Eagles have the worst receivers in the league and their best running back, Ryan Mathews, is out. 
Green Bay's defense has been torched the past few weeks. But the Packers' last four games have been against very strong offenses - Redskins, Titans, Colts and Falcons. All of those teams have above average quarterbacks. The Eagles don't. 
Much is made of Green Bay not playing well, but the Eagles are just 1-3 in their last four games. This is the right time now to jump on the Packers. 

The answer is yes I can trust the Titans on the road - against this battered foe whose season is shot.
Tennessee is in must-win mode at 5-6. Marcus Mariota showed potential as a rookie last season and he has burst out into star status during the last seven weeks throwing 19 touchdown passes with just three interceptions during this span. The Titans are averaging 31 points during this time frame. 
The Titans aren't one-dimensional offensively. DeMarco Murray still is an elite running back. He has five 100-yard rushing games this season. 
Injuries have turned the Bears from a slightly-below .500 type team into a bottom feeder ranking among the five worst teams in the NFL. 
Chicago may shut down Jay Cutler, who has no chance of sparking an offense composed of backup receivers and backup offensive linemen. Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller are Cutler's two top targets. Jeffery is suspended and Miller is likely done for the year after suffering a broken foot this past Sunday. The Bears have multiple offensive line injuries, too, along with key defensive players out or suspended. 
About the only strength Chicago had was its run defense, but that is now a weakness, too, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman missing last week. Mariota and Murray can light up this defense. 
Dick LeBeau has improved Tennessee's defense. The Titans now have a respectable pass rush. Their secondary is vulnerable, but the Bears lack the necessary passing attack to take advantage. 
Chicago's home field advantage is just about nil. The Bears have dropped 12 of their last 15 at Solider Field going 5-10 ATS in those games. 

The numbers are 34, 21, 24, 12, 27 1/2, and 16 1/2. Those are the spreads Oregon has been favored against Oregon State during the last six years. Oregon has won all of those games against arch-rival Oregon State with only one of the victories being by less than 10 points. 
Yes, Oregon fell off a cliff this season, their worst in two decades. But the Ducks still hold a major talent gap, are off a victory that shows they still can be dangerous are treating this matchup as their Super Bowl. 
I want all that going for me and this short spread is a path to involvement. 
Oregon State is having another crummy year at 3-8. That's to be expected. The Beavers are always a lower tier Pac-12 team. What's shocking is Oregon falling to 4-7. The Ducks, though, are coming off a 30-28 upset win of then-11th ranked Utah. 
That victory can't salvage a lost season for the Ducks, but it does give them confidence going into this traditional in-state rivalry matchup. 
Oregon's offense remains potent behind Justin Herbert. It's a big step down in defensive class that Oregon is used to seeing after facing Utah, Southern Cal and Stanford during its last three games. 
The road team has dominated this series going 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times. Oregon is 5-0 ATS the past five times playing at Oregon State. 

Only once this season has Air Force been an underdog. That was as a one-point road 'dog to Army, a game the Falcons won, 31-12, three weeks ago.
Now the Falcons are more than a touchdown 'dog to Boise State. No, I'm not buying that. Air Force has defeated the Broncos each of the past two years winning 37-30 in Boise last season and 28-14 at home in 2014. 
Air Force is the fourth-leading rushing team in the country. The Falcons' offense has gotten better with the switch to sophomore quarterback Arion Worthman. Air Force has won four in a row averaging 38 points during this span. 
Boise State has failed to cover eight of 11 games. They are going to have problems with Air Force's triple-option attack especially down two injured starting linebackers. 

Minnesota owned the best defense in the NFL during the first five weeks holding opponents to 12.6 points per game in opening 5-0. 
The Vikings then got cold losing four in a row averaging 14 points a game during this span. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner bailed early this month and there were offensive line injuries. One of the Vikings' defeats during this time frame came to the Lions, 22-16, in overtime. The Vikings were playing their worst ball during this time yet the Lions were going to lose if not for a 58-yard field goal by Matt Prater at the end of regulation that forced overtime. 
Minnesota is playing better now having just defeated the Cardinals, 30-24, at home. The disadvantage of playing on the road on Thursday is mitigated here by the short travel and the Vikings familiarity with the Lions, who they played less than three weeks ago. 
Neither team can run the ball. Matthew Stafford was hot early in the season, but has cooled off considerably. He has not passed for more than 278 yards during his last seven games. The Lions could manage only one touchdown on offense versus the lowly Jaguars at home last Sunday. Stafford is averaging one touchdown pass per game in his last four games. That's not impressive in today's pass happy, offensive-skewed NFL. 
The Vikings hold a strong defensive and coaching edge here. Mike Zimmer is a defensive guru and he knows how to defend Stafford. The Lions are averaging 16.8 points in regulation in five games against the Zimmer-coached Vikings. Not once have the Lions been able to reach 20 points against Minnesota in regulation during the Zimmer era. 
The Vikings are used now to playing indoors on turf. Their offense showed signs of improvement last week more comfortable now that new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has had a few weeks to get acclimated. 

I consider the Patriots to be the team to beat in the Super Bowl. At the other end, I consider the 49ers right there with the Browns as the worst team in the NFL. 
You can talk that this is a long trip for the Patriots and they won't have injured Rob Gronkowski. But the Patriots still should bury this opponent especially given the circumstances.
New England just lost at home to Seattle. That doesn't sit well with Bill Belichick. The Patriots have covered 74 percent of the time following a defeat during the past 43 instances. 
Since Week 1, the 49ers have gone 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS. Their defense has fallen apart due to their best players getting hurt and fatigue from their offense playing at such a fast-tempo. In their last eight games, the 49ers are giving up an average of 35 points and 460 yards.
The Patriots are averaging 32 points per contest since Tom Brady came back from suspension five games ago. Brady has the highest passer rating in the league at 125.5 with a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. LeGarrette Blount has put up the most touchdowns of any non-quarterback. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. But Martellius Bennett is a top-10 talent. 
San Francisco's offense has improved since Colin Kaepernick took over from Blaine Gabbert. But it remains limited and well below average. The 49ers are not going to be able to keep up with a motivated and mad Patriots squad that has an elite offense. 

Back in the 1990's, I covered the UNLV football team and have retained several key sources. It's a team I follow closely living n Las Vegas. I can tell you first-hand this Rebel team is different than what their previous teams from the past 30 years have been. Tony Sanchez is UNLV's best football coach since Harvey Hyde back in the early 1980's. Another big difference is these Rebels can be counted on for a full effort and can now be trusted on the road. That wasn't the case before Sanchez took over. The Rebels are about two-to-three star players away from being a serious conference contender, but they are vastly improved both talent-wise and mentally under Sanchez.
UNLV hasn't lost by more than 23 points in any game this season and it has played some decent competition, including UCLA, Central Michigan, San Diego State and Colorado State. This is a rare nationally televised game (ESPN2) for the Rebels. Sanchez is an excellent recruiter and needs his team to be competitive to help boost recruiting. 

If the Rebels were to spring the upset they would keep alive their bowl chances. UNLV has proven itself when stepping up. The Rebels just defeated Wyoming, 69-66, in triple overtime racking up 653 yards of total offense, including 401 rushing yards. The Rebels rank 14th in the nation in rushing and found the right quarterback as Kurt Palandech accounted for four touchdowns while throwing for 252 yards and running for another 157 against Wyoming in his first start. 
Wyoming beat Boise State just three weeks ago. The Broncos can be run on. San Jose State proved that rushing for 217 yards against them. So did New Mexico, which piled up 382 yards on the ground.
Boise State is explosive but not the powerhouse of previous seasons. The Broncos often are overpriced especially when playing at home. That's the case again here. The Broncos have failed to cover their last eight home games. They are 7-22 ATS at home the past 29 times facing opponents with a losing road record. Boise State played at Hawaii last week and have a bigger game on deck next week playing at Air Force. That's the Broncos revenge game of the year as Air Force beat them in Boise last season.   

The Broncos are going to need to force turnovers to cover a four-touchdown spread against this underrated opponent. Yet Boise State only has seven takeaways on the season. Just two teams in the entire FBS - which is composed of 128 teams - have fewer takeaways. 

Boston College is an opponent Florida State has problems matching up against. The Eagles have trouble with mobile quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Florida State doesn't present that. Seminoles freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has rushed for under 90 yards on the season. 
The Eagles have held Florida State's offense to an average of 13 points during the past two years. The Seminoles offense could manage just seven points and 217 yards in last year's game winning 14-0 with one of their touchdowns coming on a defensive fumble return. Florida State barely nipped Boston College, 20-17, two seasons ago at home as 16 1/2-point underdogs. 
Boston College's strength is a run defense that ranks eighth in the nation and second in the ACC. Florida State heavily relies on the running of Dalvin Cook. Boston College can contain him. So it's going to be difficult for the Seminoles to cover by a margin of three touchdowns.
Florida State has laid more than six points three times in its last five games, failing to cover each time.  
Boston College upset North Carolina State as a 16-point road 'dog two weeks ago. The Eagles then fell flat and had problems containing Heisman hopeful Jackson and Louisville last week losing by an embarrassing, 52-7. 
Look for Steve Addazio to have his Eagles motivated for this stand-alone Friday nationally televised (ESPN2) game. Boston College is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times following a non-cover. 

Rarely, if ever, am I going to recommend playing the Browns this season. Cleveland's talent level isn't better than expansion level and its priority this season is playing for the future not necessarily winning games.
However, this is that rare spot where the Browns are worth backing. 
Baltimore is struggling mightily on offense. The change in offensive coordinators from Marc Trestman to Marty Mornhinweg three games ago hasn't helped. Joe Flacco is having one of his worst seasons with a 76 passer rating, the Ravens' ground game has been ineffective and their offensive line has been banged-up and isn't playing well either. There haven numerous mistakes and penalties. 
The Ravens are playing on a short week after just beating their biggest division rival, Pittsburgh, this past Sunday due in part to a rusty Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens could manage only 274 yards against a Steelers defense that ranked 27th in total yards entering the matchup. If you discount Mike Wallace's 95-yard touchdown catch, which came on a slant patter where Wallace took advantage of a missed tackle, the Ravens averaged less than three yards per play versus the Steelers. 
The Ravens have been outgained their last five games. Not one of Baltimore's games this season have been decided by more than eight points. 
The Browns are playing for next year, but they sure don't want to go winless. Their defense is better now with Jamie Collins than what it was in Week 2 when they lost to the Ravens, 25-20. The Browns led 20-0 in that game. They won't lack for motivation here and their familiarity with Baltimore is a key playing on Thursday. The Browns beat the Ravens, 33-30, at Baltimore last season. 

Count me among those not impressed by Buffalo. I think the Bills' coaching is below par, their passing game is weak and the defense not nearly as good as it was two years ago when Jim Schwartz was the defensive coordinator and before Rex Ryan came on board. 
Seattle has a couple of defensive injuries with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett out. The Seahawks still are very strong defensively. Buffalo could be missing two of its key offensive players if LeSean McCoy and left tackle Cody Glenn can't play due to injuries. The Bills actually would be doing the wise thing by holding out McCoy giving his sore hamstring another two weeks of rest since the team has a bye following this game.
Injuries have limited Russell Wilson into being merely a glorified game manager. But Wilson is healthy now restoring his dangerous dual threat capability. I can see a big game coming from him. The Bills aren't likely to have run-stuffer Marcell Dareus. So the Seahawks should be able to run, which makes Wilson even more effective.
The Bills are making a cross country journey into the toughest outdoor venue in the NFL. Since 2013, the Seahawks have won 28 of 32 home games. 

Love the Chargers as 'dogs, hate them as favorites where they are 1-5 ATS the past six times in that role losing straight-up in four of those games. 
Tennessee just may be the best team in the AFC South Division. Now perhaps that's faint praise, but Tennessee is vastly improved in all areas. 
Backed by a resurgent DeMarco Murray and what now has become a decent offensive line, Marcus Mariota has thrown multiple touchdown passes during the last four weeks. The Titans have scored 26 or more points in each of their last four games. Consequently, San Diego gives up 26.5 points a game to rank 24th in scoring defense. The Chargers also are 24th in pass defense.
Philip Rivers bravely soldiers on as the Chargers are one of the more banged-up teams in the league with a cluster injury problem at linebacker, down their best cornerback and with multiple receiver injuries. Rivers already has been playing minus his best receiver, Keenan Allen, and dependable third-down back Danny Woodhead. 
Dick LeBeau has helped coach up the Titans defense, which should get cornerback Perrish Cox back this week. The Titans' confidence is high after dismantling the Jaguars. They've also had extra time since that victory came last Thursday. 
This isn't a great spot for the Chargers, who have yet to have their bye. The Chargers lost to Oakland on the road in a division game four weeks ago. Then the Chargers upset Denver at home on national television in another division game. That was followed by an upset overtime road win against the Falcons and then last week the Chargers played another AFC West game losing a tough one to the Broncos in a huge matchup. 

Alabama won't finish the season unbeaten. How's that? Because the Crimson Tide are going to lose here in this toughest of tough road settings. Just in case, taking more than a touchdown with LSU is a tremendous cushion. 
Now I certainly respect Alabama. The handicap is based on LSU rather than negativity toward the Crimson Tide although losing defensive back/return Eddie Jackson for the season is a big blow for them. 
I like the way Ed Orgeron has turned around the Tigers. Talent was never the problem for LSU. Coaching was. Now that Les Miles is gone that talent is bubbling to the surface. The Tigers have outgained their past three opponents by an average of 259 yards a game. 
Even suffering with Miles' coaching, the Tigers could be unbeaten. They lost by two to the Badgers playing in Wisconsin and fell by five at Auburn when a last-second game-winning touchdown pass was nullified because the officials ruled time had run out.
Alabama is not going to hold a talent edge here. The situation greatly favors LSU. The Tigers have had two weeks to rest and prepare because of Hurricane Andrew forcing postponement of their game against Florida and having a bye. The Tigers have a top-notch defensive coordinator in Dave Aranda, who was Wisconsin's defensive coordinator until coming to LSU. As a native of Wisconsin, I can tell you the Badgers hated to lose Aranda. 
Alabama hasn't faced this caliber of defense all season. This is a night game, which makes it even rougher when playing at LSU. The Tigers will be treating this as their national championship game. LSU has arguably the best running back in the country, Leonard Fournette. He's been slowed by an ankle injury. But Fournette rushed for 284 yards on only 16 carries against Mississippi during LSU's last game two weeks ago. He'll be 100 percent here.
Mississippi is the one common opponent these two teams share. LSU defeated the Rebels by 17 points at home outgaining them by 191 yards. Alabama played the Rebels on the road and barely escaped winning, 48-43, aided by an 85-yard punt return touchdown by Jackson. The Crimson Tide were outgained by 35 yards in the contest.   

The Vikings are vastly superior to the Bears, a true Super Bowl contender. Chicago is one of the five worst teams in the NFL. 
This is a Monday night home game for the Bears. But they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. People in Illinois are excited about the Cubs in the World Series not the Bears. The Vikings are going to have their share of fans for this game so the Bears have a limited home field advantage.
Minnesota is a point spread machine under Mike Zimmer covering 19 of the last 23 times. The Vikings are off an upset loss to the Eagles. Minnesota didn't play well in that game perhaps because it came following its bye week. Look for Zimmer to have the Vikings fully ready and motivated for this matchup. 
The Vikings entered this week ranked No. 1 defensively in fewest yards and points allowed. The Bears have Jay Cutler back at quarterback. That's not necessarily a plus for them. Cutler is a lame duck who the Bears don't want to keep after this season. Cutler's teammates rarely respond well  to him. 
Chicago gives an effort defensively. The Bears just have too many injuries, though, and not enough talent. They rank among the bottom 12 in points surrendered. 
This is a mismatch not fully reflected in the point spread. 

It's rare to get Bill Belichick and his Patriots in a same season revenge game. But that's the case here as the Bills shut out the Patriots, 16-0, in Week 4. New England was forced to play third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett in that game. 
Now Tom Brady is back. The Patriots are going to be extremely fired-up for this game. They had never been shut out at home in the 15-year history of Gillette Stadium before that first Buffalo game. 
Brady has numerous offensive weapons. LeGarrette Blount is having a big year, too, providing the Patriots with a needed power back. 
The situation is quite different than it was four weeks ago when Brady still was under suspension and the Bills had a healthy LeSean McCoy. Not only is McCoy hobbled by a hamstring injury, but the Bills also are without their best receiver, Sammy Watkins. Tyrod Taylor is an excellent running quarterback, but he's not a strong downfield passer. Belichick will be able to defend Buffalo's one dimensional attack. Taylor needs weapons to succeed. He doesn't have them. 
The Bills' 4-3 record is deceiving. Besides taking advantage of New England's dire quarterback problems, they also beat the Rams and 49ers. Miami exposed Buffalo this past Sunday outgaining the Bills by 187 yards and holding a 14-minute time possession edge. 
The Bills don't figure to hang around based on turnovers either as New England quarterbacks haven't thrown an interception all season.
Before losing to the Bills, the Patriots had defeated Buffalo 30 of the past 32 times. The Patriots have rolled past the Bills by a touchdown or more in 21 of their last 27 victories. New England has a bye the following week. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS the past four times before a bye. They will be holding nothing back. This is a kill spot for the Patriots with the talent and situation stacked in their favor. 

This truly has been the season in hell for Michigan State and Mark Dantonio. It's the first time in 25 years the Spartans have dropped five games in a row.
Before the season began, oddsmakers lined this game as Michigan minus four. Now look at the spread! Sure Jim Harbaugh has resurrected Michigan and Michigan State may be the most disappointing team in the nation along with Notre Dame. 
But the Spartans still have great athletes and Dantonio hasn't all of a sudden become a lousy coach. If there is one time for the rest of this season that Michigan State gets up for a game this will be that time.
The Spartans have beaten the Wolverines seven of nine times under Dantonio, including the past five. Michigan is 0-8 ATS the past eight times these two teams have met.
Michigan State usually is at its best in a 'dog role. Since the middle of the 2011 season, the Spartans are 12-2-1 ATS when catching points. 
Michigan has played only one road game - and that was against pathetic 2-6 Rutgers. The Wolverines play their home games on FieldTurf. This game is on a grass field. The Wolverines are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. 

The Falcons are playing well, but face both a physical and mental letdown returning home from back-to-back road games against the bruising Broncos and Seahawks. 
This game figures to be a shootout between Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan. The Chargers are 2-4, but could be undefeated with better luck. They have outscored their opponents by 18 points. So their record is highly misleading.
The Chargers' confidence is up, though, after they beat the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos. That occurred last Thursday so the Chargers have had ample time to rest and prepare. Rivers can definitely take advantage of a soft Falcons defense that has multiple injuries at linebacker and doesn't rush the passer well.
San Diego has covered 20 of the last 29 times it has been a road 'dog. Mike McCoy has been under fire as Chargers head coach, but his team has covered eight of their past 10 games.