The Packers suffered a very frustrating loss to the Vikings opening week. Fortunately for them their favorite patsy is up next - the Bears. It's true Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears. Green Bay has defeated Chicago six consecutive times and 12 of the last 14 times at Lambeau Field.

Rodgers has accounted for 15 TD's in the Packers' last four games against Chicago with a 141.5 passer rating. Unlike past victories, though, the Packers will dominate the Bears in the trenches and with a strong 1-2 running/catching punch of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Rodgers should have Allen Lazard back as his No. 1 wide receiver. He'll also be looking to throw to reliable tight end Robert Tonyan, who he has excellent chemistry with.

Green Bay's defensive line is one of the best in the NFL. The Bears, on the other hand, may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Chicago's inexperienced tackles Braxton Jones and Larry Borom are no match for Kenny Clark, emerging Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. This is the biggest mismatch between defensive line and offensive line in all of the Week 2 matchups.

The Bears' upset of the 49ers last week came because Justin Fields threw a 51-yard TD pass on a busted play when Chicago was trailing 10-0. That got the Bears going and ignited them. The 49ers were flat. Trey Lance is inexperienced. Rodgers is not. Rodgers has turned the ball over only once the last six times he's faced the Bears.

The Packers have won 13 straight regular-season home games. This isn't the playoffs, the Packers won't choke here.

There are two ways of looking at Georgia's 49-3 thrashing of Oregon in Atlanta two weeks ago. Either the defending national champion and top-ranked Bulldogs are that good, or Oregon isn't nearly as dangerous as cracked up to be. I go with the first.

Look for the Ducks to get redemption on national TV in the confines of Autzen Stadium where they have won 20 straight and 29 consecutive non-conference games.

BYU is ranked 12th in the nation following its exciting 26-20 overtime home win against Baylor last Saturday. But the Cougars are nowhere near the level of Georgia. They also are likely to be without their two best wide receivers again, Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua.

Oregon is tough in the trenches - one of the few schools to return all five of its starting offensive linemen - and has physical linebackers. BYU averaged only 2.4 yards rushing against Baylor.

But the Ducks' major strengths are speed and skill position depth. These are major edges against BYU and will prove the difference. Oregon got some of its confidence back rolling past Eastern Washington - a decent FCS school - 70-14, covering easily as 27-point home 'dogs last week.

Oregon QB Bo Nix always has been better at home where he has a 28-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to just 12-to-12 on the road. Nix should have ample time to spot his speedy downfield targets given the experience of his offensive line.

Yes, the Chiefs look great again. But the Chargers are right up with them as a double-digit win team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. The Chargers traveling on a short week is mitigated by this being an early-season division game so the fatigue factor is lessened and the team has familiarity with the opponent.

The point spread should not be this high. It's partly due to an overreaction from the Chiefs smashing the Cardinals opening week. The Cardinals, though, are a bad and banged-up team right now.

The Chargers can match the Chiefs' talent level. Justin Herbert, like Patrick Mahomes, is a top-five quarterback. The Chargers have by far the best running back in Austin Ekeler and the better pass rush with Khalil Mack making an immediate impact last week in tandem with another premier pass rusher, Joey Bosa. Los Angeles also is strong in the defensive backfield and in the offensive line.

Really the Chargers' only weaknesses are stopping the run and special teams. But the Chiefs don't beat teams on the ground and it's their kicker, Harrison Butker, who is out.

The Chargers have fared well recently when playing in Kansas City going 3-0-1 ATS during their last four visits. The Chargers have won there each of the last two seasons. No shock at all if they make it three straight road victories against the Chiefs.

Huge motivation for both teams in this Monday night Russell Wilson Bowl. But the pressure is on Denver as road chalk. Expectations aren't nearly as high on the Seahawks.

Seattle has a strong home field advantage. The crowd will be up for this matchup. Wilson is several rungs higher than Geno Smith. But Smith has weapons with D.K. Metcalf. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant. Rashad Penny is healthy so Smith has a ground attack to rely upon, too.

I find the Broncos to be overrated. Wilson is on the downside of his career. He's not quite as accurate as before and he's less of a danger to run. Wilson didn't get any timing down with his new team during preseason. So the Seahawks catch the Broncos at a good time.

The Seahawks are 19-8-1 ATS as a home underdog during the Pete Carroll era. The Seahawks have covered 16 of the last 23 times they've been a 'dog. Smith, for all the criticism, is 6-3 ATS as a home 'dog when starting.

Don't be fooled by the Week 1 outcomes when accessing these two teams in this matchup.

South Alabama rolled past Nicholls State, an FCS school, 48-7, last week while Central Michigan lost 58-44 to Oklahoma State. 

The Jaguars are a middle-of-the-road Sun Belt Conference team. They have failed to cover in their last six road games. 

Central Michigan covered against Oklahoma State, who is ranked 11th in the country. Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson completed 36 of 49 passes for 424 yards and four TD's with no interceptions against the Cowboys. 

The Chippewas came on strong last season winning seven of their last nine games, including upsetting Washington State in a bowl game. They are on a 6-0 covering run. 

So give me a solid MAC team against this Sun Belt foe. 

Louisville and its quarterback, Malik Cunningham, are not who we thought they would be. The Cardinals are much worse than imagined and Cunningham, hindered by a bad offensive line and devoid of talented wide receivers, shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath with his Louisville predecessor, Lamar Jackson.

The Cardinals were buried, 31-7, by underdog Syracuse in their opener last Saturday. The Orange have an excellent running back, but little else offensively. Yet they produced 449 yards of offense against Louisville with Orange QB Garrett Shrader racking up 332 yards of offense with his arm and legs. The Cardinals gave up an average of more than 400 yards per game last season and don't appear improved.

Now Louisville has to go back on the road to face a better QB in Central Florida's John Rhys Plumlee, a transfer from Mississippi. Plumlee rolled up 407 yards of offense in leading the Knights to a 56-10 win against South Carolina State in their opener eight days ago. Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 road games.

Central Florida's defensive strength is its secondary. So I don't see the overrated Cunningham faring much better while the Knights behind Plumlee can take advantage of the Cardinals' porous defense.

This is far more of a mismatch than this point spread indicates. Louisville has defeated Syracuse the past three times by an average of 30 points, including out-scoring the Orange, 71-3, during the last two meetings.

Louisville owns a monster edge at QB with Malik Cunningham, the top rushing QB in the ACC. Cunningham is protected by a very underrated offensive line.

Syracuse is forced to be one-dimensional on the ground with Sean Tucker because its QB, Garret Shrader, is terrible. Shrader is very inaccurate and he's not helped by a weak group of receivers. Tucker is excellent, but the Cardinals will be stacking the line against him.

The Orange haven't been able to turn the corner under Dino Babers with just 11 victories during the past three years.

Do you really think the Rams can beat the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers at home traveling cross-country on a short week having just played this past Monday night?

I don't and I'm willing to lay a field goal to back that opinion.

Free of the Lions, Matthew Stafford picked up his first playoff victory knocking off a slumping Cardinals team that hadn't been good since late October. Tom Brady, by comparison, has 35 postseason victories. He's won 21 of his 25 home playoff games.

The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as home chalk. They are 8-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.3 points. The Rams are 2-5 ATS versus above .500 opponents.

Brady doesn't have reliable Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown anymore. But he still has a deep wide receiving corps, a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and could be getting his two best running backs in Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones.

The Rams' defensive line has come on strong. Aaron Donald is a force. But they have holes in their secondary. Losing safety Jordan Fuller late in the season is a key injury. If the Rams have to trot out 38-year-old formerly retired Eric Weddle they're in trouble.

The Buccaneers' defense is back to being formidable with the return to health of linebackers Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and edge pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul.

The Cardinals lost their edge with a late October Thursday night home loss to the Packers. They have yet to regain it and I don't see that changing in this matchup. 
Arizona is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Cardinals' defense has been below par the second half of the season. Their secondary has given up 14 TD passes with just one interception during the last five games. 

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, who had a superstar season, can take advantage. Stafford threw for a career-high 41 TD passes in his first year with Rams offensive guru coach Sean McVay while Kupp led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's, emerging as the top wide receiver in the NFL. Stafford had no problem in two games against the Cardinals this season, completing 69 percent for 567 yards and a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The Rams are going to get their points here. I don't see the Cardinals keeping up. I give a huge plus to Aaron Donald and a Rams defense line that is peaking against an Arizona offensive line that has sprung leaks and doesn't have a quality healthy running back left. 

This puts tremendous pressure on Kyler Murray, who hasn't been the same dominant force he was earlier in the season before missing four games. Minus superstar wide receiver and security blanket DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals are far less dangerous through the air and in the red zone. Arizona's offense mainly consists of a bunch of 5-yard passes for Murray, which isn't going to get the job done. 

McVay is 5-1 against Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury. During these six meetings the Rams have held Murray in check. Murray's averaged 233.2 passing yards, 6.8 yards per attempt with eight all-purpose TD's and nine turnovers along with being sacked 18 times. 

I rate the Buccaneers two levels higher than the Eagles. Given home field advantage and having more playoff experience, the Buccaneers should win this game handily.

Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl last season. The Buccaneers could be even better this season. They set a franchise record with 13 victories. Tom Brady had one of his greatest seasons, which really says a lot given how many outstanding years he's had. Brady passed for 5,316 yards - third most in NFL history - and set a Tampa Bay record with 43 TD passes.

The Eagles are not battle tested. They've met only three teams at .500 or above since November and went 1-2 SU and ATS against them. The Eagles went 1-6 ATS on the season when they faced above .500 opponents. Nick Sirianni is in his first season as Eagles head coach. Second-year QB Jalen Hurts has never been in a playoff game. He also is dealing with an ankle injury.

Philadelphia led the NFL in rushing. But Tampa Bay has been one of the best run defenses for the past three seasons. Hurts is a better runner than thrower.

The Buccaneers built a 28-7 lead against the Eagles in their earlier matchup this season. The Eagles scored a couple of late TD's to make the final a respectable, but misleading 28-22. The game closed with Brady taking a knee inside the Eagles' 10-yard line.

The Eagles have been huge money-burners when getting points going 3-14 ATS the last 17 times as an underdog.

The stage and pressure is too much for the Raiders with a chance to reach the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years.

I give checkmarks to the Chargers in nearly every category with a major one at QB with Justin Herbert, who already has set a Chargers franchise record with 35 TD passes this season.

The Chargers' secondary is healthy for one of the rare times this season and underrated run-stuffer Justin Jones also has returned to the lineup.

Special teams have been a weakness for the Chargers. But that area was shored up in late October with the signings of kicker Dustin Hopkins and kick/punt returner Andre Roberts. Hopkins is 17-for-18 in field goals. Roberts leads the league in yards per kickoff return.

Aaron Rodgers is making a strong case to repeat as MVP throwing for 16 TD passes without an interception in his last five games. This includes a four-touchdown, 385-yard passing game against the Vikings. The Vikings pulled that game out, 34-31, as Kirk Cousins nearly matched Rodgers.

Now Cousins is out due to COVID. The line has skyrocketed because of that to where the Packers are laying two TD's instead of one. 

Minnesota has played close games every week. But that was with Cousins. The Vikings aren't going to be able to keep up with Rodgers now that Sean Mannion will be their quarterback. Minnesota also is without its second best receiver, Adam Thielen. 

The Vikings' defense has been disappointing a second straight season giving up 30.4 points in their last five games. The revenge-minded Packers are going to put up their share of points here. 

I consider Mannion a stiff. I don't see him being able to elevate the Vikings, who have morale issues because of Cousins. Mike Zimmer has lost much of his luster, too. He could be on the way out. 

I see a class difference of more than a touchdown here. Current form counts for something, too.

The Badgers went 7-1 down the stretch. They led the nation in total defense and were sixth in scoring defense surrendering 16.4 points per game. 
Arizona State went 3-3 in its last six games, 2-4 ATS. The Sun Devils' only win against a Bowl team was against UCLA. Wisconsin posted victories over Bowl teams Purdue by 17 points and 20 against Iowa. 

The Sun Devils are 96th in passing offense. Their QB, Jayden Daniels, hasn't lived up to lofty expectations. 

The game is in Las Vegas. But Arizona State won't have a crowd advantage because the Badgers travel extremely well with tremendous fan support. 

Opt-outs and transfers can greatly impact a bowl game. We saw it happen with Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday when Western Michigan blew out the Wolf Pack, 52-24. Nevada was missing its star QB plus all of its best receivers. 

Oregon is down around 30 scholarship players, including star defensive lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks did not look good down the stretch either losing a pair of games to Utah by the combined score of 76-17. 

Oklahoma is a top-12 team in scoring and yards. I much prefer Sooners freshman QB Caleb Williams to the Ducks' inconsistent signal-caller, Anthony Brown. Williams took the starting job away from Spencer Rattler, who was considered a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender before the season. Williams threw for 1,670 yards with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The game is being played in San Antonio, Texas. That's a plus for Oklahoma, which is the closer school and should have a higher fan turnout. 

Both teams are 7-7. But I consider the Broncos to be the superior team. I like the Broncos' defense, coaching, running backs and wide receivers better than the Raiders. I also give Denver a checkmark at tight end if Darren Waller has to miss another week.

Denver has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in six of its last eight games. The Raiders have managed 16 points or fewer in six of their last seven games. Hunter Renfroe has emerged as the Raiders' most productive offensive player. He does his damage from the slot. However, the Broncos get back cornerback Bryce Callahan this week from a knee injury. He's one of the better slot coverage corners. He gives the Broncos a strong secondary to go with cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Justin Simmons.

Drew Lock is going to start for injured Teddy Bridgewater. I welcome that change from a Denver standpoint. Lock doesn't have Bridgewater's accuracy, but he's more of a downfield threat. He is better equipped to take advantage of the Broncos many receiving weapons, which include Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant. Lock has been turnover-prone in the past. The Raiders, though, have a league-low five interceptions, only three by their cornerbacks. The Raiders' secondary also is dealing with COVID-19 and injuries. Safety Jonathan Abram is out for the season.

I also give the Broncos a strong running back edge with Melvin Gordon and good-looking rookie Javonte Williams. They can take the pressure off Lock. The Raiders have only eight sacks in their last six games.

I want the Titans going for me in a Thursday night home underdog role desperately needing a victory. The Titans have cobbled together a serviceable ground attack without Derrick Henry and they're getting back their two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.

That's huge for Ryan Tannehill, who has suffered without his two top targets. The 49ers are banged-up in the secondary. They also will be missing their leading rusher, Elijah Mitchell.

San Francisco is ground-oriented. The 49ers set up the pass via running the ball. The Titans, however, rank No. 2 in run defense. Tennessee has improved very much defensively. Discounting giving up 36 points to the Patriots, the Titans have held their past five opponents to an average of 15.6 points. They just held the Steelers to 168 total yards last week. That was the least amount of yards Tennessee has permitted in 11 years.

The 49ers are on a nice roll, but I don't consider them an elite NFC team worthy of beating a similar-caliber AFC team.

No team has been worse as a big home favorite than the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco has failed to cover the last 10 times they've been home chalk when laying 5 or more points. All together, they are 4-15-1 ATS in this role.

The Falcons have been at their best on the road winning six of eight games away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Cordarrelle Patterson has emerged this season as a rushing/receiver threat rather than just a dangerous kick returner. His presence relieves much of the pressure on Matt Ryan to have to win this game himself. The Falcons' ground game has picked up thanks to Patterson, averaging 132.6 rushing yards the past three games.

Atlanta remains in the playoff hunt so a hard effort should be a given.

San Francisco has been hard hit by injuries in the secondary and at running back. The 49ers are ground-oriented with a game-manager type QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. They are not geared to covering big margins like this.

This line originally was set too low because Fresno State was going to be without its coach, Kalen DeBoer, and star QB, Jake Haener. DeBoer is headed to Washington to take over the Huskies' program. But Haener isn't going with him as originally thought. 

Haener has decided to stay at Fresno State and not transfer after the Bulldogs named highly-respected QB guru Jeff Tedford as their new head coach replacing DeBoer.

The Bulldogs are far more talented than UTEP, strong on both sides of the ball. Talent-wise, the Bulldogs are easily two TD's better than the Miners. Motivation is a key. UTEP will have it playing in-state and not having been to a bowl since 2014. 

Fresno State went 9-3. The Bulldogs were hoping to land a bigger bowl spot. But now that Tedford is their coach, I believe the Bulldogs will produce a strong effort as they have many returning starters. They won't want to embarrass interim coach Les Marks knowing Tedford will be closely following things. So that motivation angle is heavily reduced. Fresno State also has more bowl experience. 

Fresno State has a balanced attack with several good running backs. Haener is one of the better QB's on the West Coast. He passed for 3,810 yards and 32 TD passes. He has a pro caliber wideout in Jaylen Cropper. Haener's passing efficiency mark of 158.1 was the best in the Mountain West Conference and 15th best in the nation. 
UTEP was respectable on defense ranking 53rd in scoring defense giving up 24.8 points a game. But the Miners are well below average offensively ranking 89th in scoring at 25.2 points and 71st in total yards. 

The Miners have little backdoor ability if they should fall behind, which is highly likely. 

Nearly three months ago, the Chargers and Chiefs played in Kansas City. Justin Herbert threw a TD pass to Mike Williams with 32 seconds left to give LA a 30-24 victory. 

As good as the Cardinals have been this season they still haven't done much at home. Arizona has lost its past two home contests - to the Packers and Panthers - and has a losing spread mark at home. The Cardinals would have a losing straight-up mark at home, too, if they didn't nip the Vikings by one point.

There doesn't figure to be many points scored in this matchup and what few points are likely to be scored by Army. 

The Black Knights are better than Navy on both sides of the ball. Army ranks 20th in scoring and gives up the 16th-fewest yards per game. The Black Knights are the second-best running team in the nation averaging 301.2 yards. They are No. 1 in average time of possession. They've converted on close to 49 percent of their third down plays and 71 percent on fourth down. 

Navy has a decent run defense. But the Midshipmen have no offense ranking 115th in scoring at 20.4 points a game, 126th in total yards and last in passing yards. They've also turned the ball over 31 times, which is the fifth-highest mark in the country. 

Army shut out Navy last season, 15-0. The Black Knights are 8-3 with a four-game win streak. They've beaten Navy in four of the past five seasons. Jeff Monken has been Army's coach for eight seasons. This is one of his strongest Army teams. 

This is one of Ken Niumatalolo's weaker Navy teams with a 3-8 record. 

Spirits will be high, but I see Army grinding out a double-digit victory with Navy unable to put up enough points to keep this close. 

It's never easy to be the NFL Thursday night road team especially in a non-conference matchup when you don't know your opponent. The Steelers not only find themselves in that role, but also off a huge Sunday victory against the Ravens.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are seeking redemption after becoming the first team to lose to the Lions this season. It's no consolation for the Vikings that they outgained the Lions by nearly 50 yards.

Minnesota had a number of key people out, or injured in that game. The Vikings' defense will get a huge boost with the expected return of linebackers Eric Kendricks, their best defender, and Anthony Barr. Both missed the Lions game.

It's a plus if Dalvin Cook can play. But I don't see the Vikings needing him to cover this small spread. Alexander Mattison is one of the better backup running backs and Kirk Cousins is having a huge statistical season with a 25-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers still are likely to be down their best cornerback with Joe Haden expected to miss a fourth consecutive game.

The Steelers' ground attack has regressed. It's going to be rough on ancient Ben Roethlisberger to perform well behind a bad offensive line on a short week.

The Raiders are a difficult team to figure out. But this is an extremely tough situational spot for Washington, off a narrow home win against the Seahawks this past Monday.

Washington has to travel cross-country now on a short week. The Raiders, by contrast, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. 

Las Vegas got its offense back in gear picking up 509 total yards and scoring 36 points against the Cowboys during its Thanksgiving upset victory. 

A special teams checkmark goes to the Raiders, too. Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league making 24 of 27 field goals, while Washington is unsettled at kicker. 

It has been six years since Alabama last was an underdog. I understand why Georgia is favored here. But these teams are much closer than what the market perceives.
Georgia is 12-0. The Bulldogs have the best defense in the country. No debate there. 

The Crimson Tide, however, have faced the more difficult schedule. While the Bulldogs drew Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern, Alabama had to play LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. 

Yes, Alabama had some close calls. Yet the Crimson Tide still lost only one game going 11-1. They know how to win and certainly are battle-tested. They also desperately need to win this game while Georgia doesn't. If the Crimson Tide loses their season is done. Georgia can take a loss and still would make the College Football Playoffs. 

I'm also attracted to getting this many points with the superior quarterback. Alabama gets that important check mark with Bryce Young. 

In Russ We Trust. That's the way I feel about this Monday night game with Seattle's season and future on the line.

Russell Wilson versus Taylor Heinicke is a huge mismatch. Wilson has had time to get the rust off following his absence from a finger injury. He has two of the three best wideouts on the field and is facing a Washington defense that is down pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

Heinicke is playing behind a banged-up offensive line. The Seahawks' defense has gotten better, allowing an average of 15 points per game during their last four games.

The Seahawks have proven themselves in prime time. They are 11-3 during their last 14 Monday night games. The stage is too big for Washington.

The Patriots are playing their best ball winning five in a row. New England's average winning margin in these games is by 25 points. The Patriots' defense has been mind-boggling, surrendering only one touchdown during their opponent's past 31 possessions.

The Titans, on the other hand, are in trouble despite their impressive 8-3 record. They are averaging just 79 yards on the ground since Derrick Henry was injured three games ago. Their passing attack isn't strong, or deep enough, to compensate with Julio Jones out and A.J. Brown banged-up.

Tennessee's offensive is at less than full strength. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 31 times. The Titans had a league-high 20 players on injured reserve last week and are missing several key defensive players, including linebacker Bud Dupree.

Mac Jones is doing the job for the Patriots with his poise and accuracy helped by an efficient ground attack, an offensive line that is playing well and excellent coaching.

The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. Bill Belichick is a master game-planner. So expect the Patriots to take full advantage of their momentum, Tennessee's problems and the situation.

Syracuse is a very live underdog here especially given the circumstances.

The Orange need a win to become bowl eligible. This is a very big deal to them since they've only been to one bowl game since 2013.

Pittsburgh would like to win just from a rivalry standpoint, but the Panthers' incentive isn't nearly as great as Syracuse's. That's because the Panthers already have clinched the ACC Coastal Division and will be playing in the ACC title game next week regardless of this outcome. Pittsburgh probably doesn't want to show too much here and may even rest some starters during the game not wanting to risk injury.

The Orange is 3-3 at home with two of those defeats coming by just a field goal.

Syracuse has a top runner, Sean Tucker, who ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing. The Panthers' weakness is pass defense. So the Orange should be able to balance their attack.

The Orange have the defensive ability to bother Kenny Pickett with 36 sacks and 78 tackles for lost yards. The Orange also have the No. 3 pass defense in the ACC.

Timing is very bad for the Saints here. This is a short week for the Saints. They've been without their best offensive players - Alvin Karmara, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. These injuries have turned the Saints into a punchless, weapon-less offense operated by Trevor Siemian, one of the more ineffective backup quarterbacks in the league.

The result is New Orleans is on a three-game losing streak. That hasn't happened to the Saints since the first three games of the 2016 season.

New Orleans draws a much more well-rounded - and angry Bills team that just got destroyed, 41-15, at home by the Colts this past Sunday. The Bills have followed up their previous three losses with blowout victories winning those next games by an average of 26 points.

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in scoring at 29.5 points and is fifth in total yards. The Saints can't keep up with that. Their offense is just a shell of its former self.

New Orleans' defensive strength is its run defense, although you couldn't tell by watching the Saints get trampled by the Eagles this past Sunday. The Bills, though, are a passing team. The Saints are giving up 29.2 points per game during their last four games. That's right on the number of what the Bills average per game.

Despite a 3-7 record, the Dolphins have life after their dominating victory against the Ravens last Thursday. The Dolphins' next four games are against the Jets, Panthers, Giants and Jets again. Those are all winnable games, which would put Miami at 7-7.

The Dolphins should get this one against the Jets, who have serious quarterback issues and a thin defense that has collapsed because of injuries.

Sometimes it's a mistake to overreact to one game. But beating the Ravens was a huge confidence-builder for the Dolphins. This was a dominant 22-10 victory, too. It was the second-fewest points Baltimore scored with Lamar Jackson as its starting QB. The Ravens could manage only 94 yards on the ground, which was their second-lowest rushing output in four years.

The Dolphins are a heavy blitzing team and the Jets have a well-below average offensive line to protect washed-up Joe Flacco, who was named the starting QB this week.

The Jets have lost nearly all of their above average defensive talent. The result is New York is giving up an average of 43.7 points in its last four games. The Jets rank last defensively in points and yards. They are second-to-last in pass defense.

Tua Tagovailoa is an improving QB, who can take advantage.

This is a cheap price to back the superior, motivated team against what's turned into another Jets disaster.

Cheap price to lay with Minnesota against an Indiana team that has lost six in a row. The Hooisers hit rock bottom last week falling, 38-3, to Rutgers.

Injuries have taken away the Hooisers' explosiveness. They are down to third-string QB freshman Donaven McCulley. Discounting a 35-point performance against Maryland, Indiana is averaging a meager 6.4 points in its last five games. The Hooisers have been held to seven or fewer points in four of their past six games. 

Minnesota won't be taking the Hooisers lightly being a game behind Iowa and Wisconsin in the Big Ten West Division. The Gophers are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road with their lone away defeat coming to Iowa last week by five points. The Gophers outgained the Hawkeyes and had 11 more first downs.

Indiana ranks 106th in scoring defense giving up an average of 32 points. Given their lack of firepower and a defense that has worn down allowing 39.7 points in its last four games it's not difficult to see the Gophers covering a touchdown spread. 

These two teams are far apart from what this point spread may indicate.
 
 San Diego State has a top-10 defense, a strong ground attack and a once-in-a-generation punter. 

UNLV has a horrible defense and can't pass the ball. The Rebels are highly reliant on running back Charles Williams. The Aztecs have the fourth-best run defense in the country.

The Aztecs are in must-win mode, too, needing to win this game and their regular-season finale to capture the West Division of the Mountain West Conference. 

San Diego State buried UNLV, 34-6, last season. The Aztecs won't be taking the Rebels lightly, however. That's because UNLV has won two in a row after opening the season with eight straight losses. Note, though, the Rebels' victories are against New Mexico and Hawaii. The combined record of those two teams is 2-10. 

Before beating New Mexico and Hawaii, UNLV lost, 51-20, to Nevada. San Diego State defeated Nevada, 23-21, last week. 

The Rebels have permitted at least 35 points in five of their games. They rank 105th in scoring defense. San Diego State has one of the best running backs in the conference, Greg Bell, and upgraded at quarterback with the switch to Lucas Johnson four games ago. Punter Matt Araiza is a huge weapon for the Aztecs. He's on pace to set the single-season college mark averaging 52.2 yards per punt. 

UNLV ranks 119th in total yards and 113th in scoring. The Rebels may not reach 10 points considering they aren't likely to ever have good field position. The Aztecs have held six of their 10 foes to 14 or fewer points. 

Rallying from an 18-point second-half deficit, North Carolina came back to defeat ninth-ranked Wake Forest, 58-55, this past Saturday. It was a great home win for the Tar Heels.

However, now the Tar Heels have to travel on a short week to face another ranked team, Pittsburgh. 

The Panthers match up better against the Tar Heels than the Demon Deacons did. Plus the Panthers are home and in a great situational spot catching the Tar Heels on short rest following a great victory.

North Carolina has lost and failed to cover the three times it has played away from home this season, losing those games by an average of 13.3 points.

Kenny Pickett could be the most improved quarterback in college football. Sparked by Pickett, a trio of good running backs and excellent wideouts, the Panthers are averaging a nation-best 45 points a game. They are No. 2 in the country in yards averaging 543.3. 

Sam Howell is one of the top QB's in the country. The Tar Heels can't match Pitt's numbers, though, especially when on the road and going against a good defense. North Carolina averages 22 points in its non-home games. 

North Carolina gives up 33.4 points per game. Pittsburgh holds foes to 22.7 points per game and ranks 15th in run defense. The Panthers give up just 3.2 yards per carry, bad news for Tar Heels' running back Ty Chandler.

Howell is less effective if he's one-dimensional without Chandler producing on the ground. Pittsburgh has the second most sacks in the ACC. Expect Pickett to get the better of Howell backed by the superior defense and for Pittsburgh to win this one by double-digits. 

The Pro Football Hall of Fame collected Mike White's jersey from last Sunday's stunning Jets' 34-31 win against the Bengals. Heady stuff. Kudos to the Jets, who caught the Bengals traveling in a division sandwich spot after beating the Ravens and hosting the Browns this week.

The Jets are in the bad spot this week in their own letdown situation and playing a Thursday road game against a frustrated and motivated opponent that is at least two levels better than them.

So I'm not afraid to lay this number with Indy. It's the Colts' first prime time home game in four years.

The Colts are much the superior team and are in near must-win mode after blowing a two-touchdown lead last week in their AFC South Division showdown loss to the Titans.

White isn't throwing for more than 400 yards and three TD's like he did against Cincinnati. White doesn't possess that kind of skill level. Defenses have film on him now, too, and Indy is well-coached defensively.

The stunning victory against the Bengals obscures just how wretched the Jets really are. New York averages 13 fewer points per game than its opponents and 84 fewer yards. The Jets have the worst ground attack in the league and the highest percentage of passes intercepted.

Carson Wentz has thrown multiple TD's in six straight games. Jonathan Taylor has reinforced his reputation as a stud running back. The Colts' offensive line has gotten healthy.

Expect a Colts blowout.

I don't see where Western Michigan is double-digits better than Central Michigan even at home. I find this line out of whack.

Each team averages 29 points a game. Central Michigan gives up one more point per game than Western Michigan.

The Chippewas upset Toledo in overtime two games ago. Western Michigan just played Toledo last week and lost, 34-15.

Both teams have balanced attacks. I do give the Broncos an edge at the skill position spots with QB Kaleb Eleby, wide receiver Skyy Moore and running back La'darius Jefferson. Eleby is my starting QB on my Mid-American Conference fantasy team. (Yes I actually am in a MAC fantasy league, maybe the only one in the country.)

But the Broncos' edge in skill position talent is offset by turnovers. Western Michigan has turned the ball over twice as much as Central Michigan this season. The Broncos only have two takeaways, too, during their last four games.

Central Michigan has been outstanding in a 'dog role under Jim McElwain going 9-3 ATS during the last two plus seasons. The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven MAC games.

This is a huge in-state rivalry game. The road team has dominated the point spread in this series covering eight of the past nine times.

Simply put there's a class difference here not reflective of the betting line. Louisiana Tech is experiencing a down and disappointing season. But the Bulldogs still harbor bowl hopes. They are much superior to Old Dominion, which is a bottom-10 caliber team.

Louisiana Tech is in circle-the-wagons mode having lost three in a row. A pair of those losses were to North Carolina State and to Texas San Antonio, which is the top 25.

Old Dominion has dropped five consecutive games. The Monarchs' lone victory was against Hampton, a non Division-I opponent. They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 conference games and 2-7 ATS during their past nine home contests.

The strength of the Bulldogs is their passing attack, which ranks 25th. QB Austin Kendall has three good wide receivers in Smoke Harris, Bub Means and Tre Harris.

Old Dominion ranks 126th in pass defense. The Monarchs are not going to be able to stop Louisiana Tech's passing attack. Their hope is Louisiana Tech turns the ball over, which it has. However, the Monarchs only have three takeaways. Without causing turnovers, Old Dominion won't be able to hang close.

There are two winless FBS football teams - Arizona and UNLV. The Rebels have lost 13 straight games. They aren't going to end that losing skid at Nevada-Reno. 
That's not the question, though. The question is can Nevada cover a three-touchdown spread? 

The answer is yes because of the makeup of these two teams and a huge edge in talent for the Wolf Pack. 

UNLV's strength is running the ball. Charles Williams is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West Conference. This is no secret to the Wolf Pack. They are going to stack the line and bring their safeties up to key on Williams and UNLV's ground attack. The Rebels have a pair of inexperienced freshmen quarterbacks. Neither of whom has demonstrated any consistency passing downfield. 

Nevada's passing attack is too strong for the Rebels to slow down. Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong is a pro prospect. The Wolf Pack rank third in the nation in passing yards. Strong has multiple excellent receiving targets. UNLV ranks 123rd out of 130 FBS teams in pass defense efficiency. The Rebels give up a staggering 71.2 percent completion percentage and 8.7 yards per attempt.

Strong has completed 70.6 percent of his throws with a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Rebels only have seven sacks and five takeaways. They can't count on a pass rush, nor takeaways to keep them in the game. 

Because of their poor passing attack, the Rebels are in big trouble when they fall behind. UNLV averages fewer than 20 points a game and ranks 123rd in total yards. UNLV's defense gives up 33.9 points a game, which ranks 117th. 

Strong should have no trouble lighting up the Rebels' porous defense. UNLV doesn't have the passing attack to stay within three touchowns of Reno.
Nevada has a strong home field.

The Wolf Pack are 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games.  

This has all the markings of a pick'em type game between two solid no-frill teams. 

Don't overthink this one. The Titans are worse than their 3-2 record. If the Bills don't pass the eye test of being the best team in the NFL right now following their road victory against the Chiefs they certainly pass the statistical test. Buffalo entered this week leading the NFL in scoring at 34.4 points per game while giving up the fewest points at 12.8. 

The Colts can't come close to matching the dynamic Lamar Jackson. The Colts' strength has been their play in the trenches. But lacking a dominant pass rusher and suffering multiple injuries in the offensive line leave the Colts mediocre as their 1-3 accurately reflects. 

Sparked by QB Brandon Peters, Illinois defeated Nebraska, 30-22, back on Aug. 28. Peters, however, was injured in that game. He didn't play in the Illini's last two games, losses to UTSA and Virginia. 

The national media hasn't caught on yet, but the wise guys have. North Carolina State is extremely strong this season, probably the second-best team in the ACC. The Wolfpack have no glaring weaknesses. They have a strong, experienced offensive line. Excellent skill position talent and a shut-down caliber defense. 

I don't see the Cowboys being able to stay within double digits of the Buccaneers.  Unlike last season, when it took them half the season for them to gel under new QB Tom Brady, the Buccaneers are fully in sync. The Super Bowl champs have all of their starters back and their deep set of receivers should carve up a Dallas defense that was historically bad last season.  I don't expect the Cowboys to surrender 29.6 points a game and permit 34 TD passes like in 2020. But I certainly don't expect them to be one of the better defensive units either as they make the change to new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.  This will be Dak Prescott's first game since suffering a horrific broken ankle last year. He'll be behind a thin offensive line minus several players due to injuries and COVID. The Buccaneers are top-notch against the run so I'm not expecting a big game either from Ezekiel Elliott.  Super Bowl champions opening at home are a dominant 18-2 SU, 14-4-2 ATS. 

Baylor is coming off a disastrous COVID-shortened 2-7 season, which ruined Dave Aranda's first season in Waco. I'm looking for the Bears to be much better this year. 

If there is one NFC team that matches up well to Green Bay and can beat the Packers it's the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay proved that back in Week 6 when it took apart the Packers, 38-10. The Buccaneers shut out the Packers for the final three quarters. It was Green Bay's worst game of the season by far. 

I've never bought into that cliche of it's tough to beat a team three times in a season. New Orleans beat Tampa Bay, 34-20, opening week and defeated the Buccaneers far worse in Tampa, 38-3, in Week 9 when Tom Brady was more in sync with his new team. Brady had a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those losses to the Saints. 

The Bears couldn't do it at home last Sunday against the Packers.They weren't good enough. They aren't good enough to stay close either to the Saints. Chicago made the playoffs only because the league allowed one extra wild card berth this season. The Bears are who they are - an 8-8 team with a single victory against a playoff team. That was by one point against the Buccaneers when they hosted Tampa Bay in Week 5 on Thursday night. The Buccaneers weren't fully in sync then and 43-year-old Tom Brady had to play on a short week. 

Look, I greatly respect the coaching staff of the 49ers especially Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. But the 49ers are out of gas both physically and mentally. It's difficult to keep a team together that misses the playoffs after reaching the Super Bowl the previous season and has the longest injury list in the league. San Francisco is 2-6 in its last eight games with every loss during this span coming by at least eight points. 

Army received it's wish to play in a bowl game. Sometimes it's not good, though, to get what you wish. The Black Knights draw West Virginia in the Liberty Bowl. The Mountaineers are a bad fit for Army. 

Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski has turned in one of the best coaching jobs in the NFL this season. The 10-4 Browns are in line to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They have a chance to win the AFC North trailing the slumping Steelers by one game. Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh next week.  The Browns are far superior to the Jets in talent and coaching. But could the Browns get caught peeking ahead to their showdown against the Steelers against such a lowly opponent? That happened last Sunday to the Rams. They were upset by the Jets a week before meeting the Seahawks for an NFC West Division showdown.  It won't happen to the Browns, though. The Jets' shocking victory against the Rams sets up this handicap to Cleveland in two respects: The Browns won't take the Jets lightly after seeing what happened to the Rams and the Jets are fat and happy now that they won't go winless. The Browns also know they must come in with a strong effort because they will be short-handed down their top four wide receivers and linebackers B.J. Goodson and Jacob Phillip due to COVID-19.  I made this play before the news broke on Saturday about these six players being out. This would not be my NFL Game of the Year if I would have known that. However, I still very much like the Browns to cover this number. Not only has the line dropped because of this news, giving the Browns more value, but also Cleveland has the right scheme to deal effectively without their top wide receivers.  The Browns use more three tight end sets than any other NFL team with Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant and David Njoku. Any one of these three could start for some NFL teams. Kareem Hunt is a very strong receiver out of the backfield. The Browns can deal without experienced wideouts because they are heavily ground-oriented with two outstanding running backs. Baker Mayfield relies on the run to set up his play-action. Cleveland is the No. 3 rushing team in the league. Nick Chubb and Hunt could be the best running back duo in the league. The Jets are decent in only one area - run defense. However, New York just lost its best player, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. He's out for the season after suffering a neck injury. So the Browns shouldn't have a problem running, especially with Mayfield playing his finest ball of the season. Mayfield has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games while averaging more than 300 yards passing during this span. The Jets have surrendered 30 TD passes. The Jets rank last in yards, passing yards and scoring at 14.7 points per game. The Browns have their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, back healthy. Sam Darnold has a pathetic 6-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Linebacker Mack Wilson is a capable replacement for Goodson.  Many teams have multiple injuries at this late juncture of the season. The Jets are no exception.  This is what Jets coach Adam Gase was quoted as saying, "We're running thin, those practice squad guys will get an opportunity this week." How good can the Jets' practice squad players be when they couldn't beat out the least talented starters/backups in the league? 
   

This has been a college football season like no other. Houston certainly can attest to that. The Cougars had eight games postponed/canceled/rescheduled because of COVID-19. They have played just once since Nov. 14 -and that was a 30-27 loss to Memphis as 7-point road favorites. 

I'll take these many points with a much superior Florida Atlantic defense against a Memphis squad that doesn't win bowl games, nor cover games. 

Brian Flores is a leading contender to win Coach of the Year honors as somehow the Dolphins are 8-4. But I see them getting exposed here by the Chiefs.

The Cardinals are an improving team that is struggling right now held in check the past two weeks by the Seahawks and Patriots, neither of whom's defense can compare to the Rams. Kyler Murray may not be 100 percent. 

Louisiana Tech currently is a slight road underdog to North Texas. But the Bulldogs shouldn't be. They have had four weeks to prepare and catch North Texas down in the dumps following a demoralizing 49-17 road loss to Texas San Antonio, probably the Mean Green's biggest Conference USA rival. 

The Cardinals are riding high after pulling out a 32-30 home win against the Bills this past Sunday on a 43-yard TD pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins with two seconds left. The Seahawks are at low ebb having lost three of their past four games, including the last two. 

Both Toledo and Western Michigan looked great in its opening-week Mid-American Conference victories last week. But I'm not putting much stock into those wins because they were layups against horrible opponents, Bowling Green for Toledo and Akron for Western Michigan.

I believe Buffalo is the best team in the MId-American Conference and the Bulls did nothing to dispel that notion rolling past Northern Illinois, 49-30, during the MAC's opening week.