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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
02-12-15	Stanford +11.5 v. Utah	Top	59-75	Loss	-122	15 h 34 m	Show
Stanford has the offense to hang with Utah. The Cardinal rank 34th in the country in scoring at 74.9 points per game. They also rank 14th in 3-point shooting despite senior Chasson Randle missing 13 of 15 shots from beyond the arc during the last two games. Randle leads the Pac-12 in scoring and made 7 of 10 shots from 3-point range when the Cardinal beat Utah, 61-60, in last season's regular-season finale. Stanford is doing a great job getting to the free throw line shooting 26 more free throws than its opponents during the past six games. The Cardinal have lost their four Pac-12 games by an average of five points. They are 5-1 ATS the past six times facing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.
02-05-15	Washington State +9 v. Oregon State	Top	50-55	Win	100	18 h 28 m	Show
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachieving and surprise teams of the season. But while the Beavers are 12-0 at home, they simple lack the depth and offense to lay this many points in a Pac-12 matchup. Some regression has happened. More should follow. The Beavers are last in the Pac-12 in scoring at 54.6 points per game and last in offensive efficiency. Their point total goes down to 45.6 a game if you factor just Pac-12 matchups. They have just a seven man rotation, which is starting to wear thin. None of their top seven players are shooting 50 percent. Washington State is playing better defense, does a good job of getting to the free throw line, has two excellent key players and is off a confidence-building 89-88 win against Stanford this past Saturday that halted a four-game losing streak. The Cougars' 6-foot-10 forward Josh Hawkinson is one of only two players in the conference to average a double-double scoring 15.1 points per game and a Pac-12-best 10.8 rebounds. Senior guard Davonte Lacy averages 17.7 points per game and has scored 49 points in his last two games.
02-04-15	Georgia Tech +16.5 v. Duke	Top	66-72	Win	100	13 h 8 m	Show
Sandwich spot here for Duke. The Blue Devils are off a huge road win against Virginia and then host Notre Dame on Saturday in a huge revenge game. Georgia Tech's record is misleading. The Yellow Jackets have lost seven ACC games by seven points or less, including falling to North Carolina State by one point in overtime on a 3-pointer at the buzzer in their last game. In their previous game, they upset Miami on the road winning by 20 points. Georgia Tech is a proven road commodity covering 12 of its last 16 away matchups. Duke is just 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 ACC games.
01-29-15	Utah -6.5 v. UCLA	Top	59-69	Loss	-110	17 h 2 m	Show
Utah has too much talent, height, balance and depth for UCLA. The Utes clobbered the Bruins by 32 points earlier this month and I can't see the banged-up Bruins regrouping enough, even at home, to keep from losing by less than double-digits. UCLA is 3-7 in its last 10 games and coming back from an 0-2 trip to Oregon where it lost by a combined 29 points to the Beavers and Ducks. Ill health is hurting the Bruins. Senior guard Norman Powell has been playing with various aliments and missed practice on Tuesday. Junior center Tony Parker has missed the last two games due to back spasms and may not play. The Bruins have one of the thinnest benches in the Pac-12. Utah has a physical, intimidating front line aided by 7-footer Jakob Poeltl, who ranks eighth in the nation in offensive rebounding. The Utes have lost only three times with two of those defeats occurring to top-10 teams. Utah doesn't beat itself and has impressive trends to back it up such as being 39-16-1 ATS in its last 56 Pac-12 games and 45-19-3 ATS in its last 67 games versus an opponent with a winning record.
01-28-15	Oregon State v. Arizona State -5.5	Top	55-73	Win	100	14 h 11 m	Show
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachievers and surprise teams of the season. But the Beavers are in a tough spot here - and the oddsmaker knows it with this spread. I want Arizona State going for me here, though, so I will lay this many points. Oregon State is 12-0 at home, but has a losing straight-up and spread record on the road. Arizona State is just 10-10, but 9-2 at home. The Sun Devils have played five of their first seven Pac-12 games on the road. Going back to last season, the Sun Devils have won 17 of their past 19 home contests. This is a key matchup for the Sun Devils and I expect them to be going all out. They were out-hustled by the Beavers when they played in Corvallis 20 days ago losing 55-47. Arizona State played with great defensive intensity in a 79-44 road victory against California two games ago, However, that intensity deserted the Sun Devils in their last game, an embarrassing 89-70 road defeat to Stanford this past Saturday. Now the Sun Devils are home for three consecutive games. Arizona State's offense has gotten better since meeting Oregon State. The Sun Devils are averaging 75.6 points in their last three games. Arizona State has reduced its turnovers during this span, a key against Oregon State's tenacious defensive backcourt headed by Gary Payton II. The Sun Devils lost Kodi Justice for the season in their loss to Stanford, but have backcourt depth and Oregon State's pressure is lessened when on the road. Arizona State ranks 52nd in the country in 3-point shooting. The Sun Devils don't figure to miss 17 of 21 shots from 3-point range like they did in the first meeting against Oregon State.
01-24-15	Kansas v. Texas -3	Top	75-62	Loss	-110	7 h 18 m	Show
Kansas has a matchup problem against Texas and it's made worse when the Jayhawks play the Longhorns on the road. Kansas has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away matchups and lost 81-69 at Texas last season. Only Kentucky has a higher shot blocking percentage than Texas. Kansas lost 72-40 to the Wildcats earlier this season. The Longhorns also rank No. 2 in the country in rebounding margin and are third in field-goal percentage defense. The Longhorns start 6-foot-8 Jonathan Holmes, 6-9 Connor Lammert and 6-9 Cameron Ridley. They also have 6-11 freshman Myles Turner playing more than half the team’s minutes off the bench. He could be the most talented player on Texas' roster. All of this creates a huge problem for the smaller Jayhawks. Only 12 teams out of 351 have had more shots blocked than Kansas, according to research compiled by KenPom.com. The Jayhawks also rank 263rd in two-pointers, the lowest figure during Bill Self's 12 years at Kansas. So getting shots rejected and scoring easy buckets is a huge problem for Kansas and it's made far worse in this matchup. Kansas doesn't figure to get easy looks at the basket as the Longhorns rank 28th in percentage of close shots allowed. The Jayhawks aren't going to get many calls either being on the road so they don't figure to be helped at the free throw line.
01-22-15	UCLA v. Oregon State -1.5	Top	55-66	Win	100	12 h 15 m	Show
Oregon State is a perfect 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home this season. I see that streak continuing against a young, depth-shy UCLA team that has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups. UCLA gets much of its scoring from its guards. However, Oregon State has a pair of tremendous defensive guards in Gary Payton II, who ranks second in the nation in steals, and Malcolm Duvivier. The Beavers rank first in the Pac-12 in 3-point defense. Only Arizona has a better defensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 than Oregon State, which upset the Wildcats at home on Jan. 11. The Bruins have just an eight-man rotation and that may be reduced as center Tony Parker is a game-time decision because of back spasms. UCLA figures to be rusty having been idle since Jan. 14. The Bruins have failed to cover 10 of the last 13 times when facing an opponent with a winning record. The Beavers are 7-0 ATS the last seven times they've hosted a foe with a losing road mark.
01-17-15	Michigan State +3 v. Maryland	Top	59-75	Loss	-110	10 h 41 m	Show
Maryland has been an overachiever this season. That could catch up to the Terrapins here. Michigan State starts to kick things up as the Big Ten season gets going and the Spartans have gotten healthier. The Spartans also have revenge from a 68-66 home overtime loss to the Terrapins on Dec. 30 when they shot only 32.3 percent from the field. I'd take Tom Izzo over any coach when it comes to same-season conference revenge. Izzo's record stands 30-11 SU and 28-12-1 ATS the past 41 times in these instances. The Spartans have beaten the spread by an average of more than four points per game during this span. The Spartans were out-rebounded in the first meeting, which negated them committing eight fewer turnovers than Maryland. The Spartans are the superior rebounding team so that shouldn't happen again. Michigan State also has proven itself on the road against top competition covering 13 of the past 19 times when taking on a foe with a winning home record. Maryland is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight home contests.
01-15-15	Oregon State v. Washington -6	Top	43-56	Win	100	16 h 17 m	Show
This is a real circle-the-wagons game for Washington, which has dropped four consecutive games after opening 11-0. The Huskies are better than they have shown while Oregon State is not nearly as good as the way it looked this past Sunday in a 58-56 upset of then sixth-ranked Arizona. That was Oregon State's biggest win in 15 years and puts the Beavers in a huge letdown spot. The Beavers' talent level still is way down. Washington, though, certainly won't be looking down at the Beavers desperately needing a victory and knowing Oregon State is capable of knocking off a top Pac-12 team. Oregon State has lost to the Huskies during each of its last 11 visits to Seattle. That string should definitely continue here. Washington holds a strong backcourt edge with point guard Nigel Williams. The Huskies have three guards who average in double figures and also hold a strong frontcourt edge behind center Robert Upshaw. The Beavers lack a true point guard and haven't really faced an opponent with as much depth in the frontcourt as Washington has with its strong shot-blocking and rebounding abilities.
01-10-15	Dayton -8.5 v. Fordham	Top	76-58	Win	100	5 h 43 m	Show
Dayton is red-hot winning five in a row. The Flyers are averaging 78 points during this span. Fordham doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Flyers. The Rams are averaging 64.5 points and are ranked 11th in the Atlantic 10 in scoring and also next-to-last in field goal percentage. The Flyers have covered 11 of the past 15 times when playing a below .500 opponent. Dayton has beaten Fordham the past three times winning by an average of 23 points a game. Dayton is strong again this season while Fordham is down. The Rams are inexperienced, have a weak backcourt and are in a rebuilding situation.
12-27-14	Southern Utah +19 v. UNLV	Top	45-79	Loss	-110	18 h 19 m	Show
Huge letdown spot for UNLV after it scored probably its biggest win in 10 years upsetting third-ranked Arizona, 71-67, this past Tuesday. The Rebels aren't that good and neither is their Mountain West Conference. Throw in the holiday season, which could reduce attendance and the level of intensity, and you have a very live 'dog here. Southern Utah has all of its starters back, has played some decent competition to become battled-tested and will be treating this game much more serious and with far more motivation than the Rebels. The Thunderbirds have covered in nine of their last 13 road games. UNLV is not well-coached and you have to question its maturity level with five freshmen drawing consistent minutes. The Rebels have a far bigger game on deck when it opens Mountain West Conference play on Wednesday against Wyoming on the road. I don't see a focused effort from the Rebels to cover this big of a number.
12-25-14	George Washington +5.5 v. Wichita State	Top	60-54	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
This is gut check time for both of these teams as they battle in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Neither team is shooting well. Defense figures to be at a premium so taking the points is the way to go. Wichita State is lucky to have survived after nipping Hawaii, 80-79, in overtime two days ago. The Shockers have had three of their seven games this month decided by one point. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The Shockers are playing many freshmen. They will be without backup guard Evan Wessel, who was part of the rotation averaging more than 19 minutes per game. He has an ankle injury. Ron Baker, Wichita State's top scorer, has been cold in the tournament missing 20 of 29 shots from the floor. George Washington also is having problems making shots. But the Colonials are very strong defensively ranking 26th in scoring defense. They are holding foes to 39.4 shooting from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range. I see them giving Wichita State problems with their physical defense having the ability to effectively constantly change up from man-to-man to zone.
12-16-14	Arizona State +3 v. Marquette	Top	71-78	Loss	-105	11 h 9 m	Show
Arizona State beat Marquette last season and Marquette is way down this season. The Golden Eagles are weak defensively, have been outrebounded by nearly nine boards a game and are down to just eight scholarship players after the departure of two bench players. Marquette also is going to be rusty having last played 10 days ago. Arizona State averages five more points per game than Marquette. The Sun Devils also have been strengthened with the addition of UNLV transfer Savon Goodman, who is now eligible. The Sun Devils have outrebounded eight of their nine opponents and made 29 more 3-pointes than their foes. Catching points with them is just a bonus.
12-10-14	Long Beach State v. San Diego State -10	Top	59-60	Loss	-110	10 h 6 m	Show
The line is lower than it should because San Diego State is coming off one of the worst shooting games of all-time in a 49-36 loss to Washington this past Sunday. The Aztecs shot 20 percent from the floor, scoring the fewest points of a major college program since 1969. But the Aztecs win by defense and rebounding, which they displayed against Washington. They outrebounded the Huskies by seven and held them under 38 percent from the floor. They just couldn't buy a basket. Remember, too, Long Beach State also lost to Washington falling, 80-70. The Aztecs have defeated the 49ers in 12 of the past 13 meetings. The 49ers have allowed an average of 85.8 points on 48.3 percent shooting from the field during their four true road games. They have yet to display the discipline and toughness required to win at this tough of a road venue especially drawing San Diego State off such a dreadful loss.
12-04-14	Arkansas +7.5 v. Iowa State	Top	77-95	Loss	-110	13 h 25 m	Show
Not only is No. 21-ranked Arkansas worthy of covering this spread, but it can win straight-up. The unbeaten Razorbacks can score, have an outstanding backcourt, shot-blocker and are physically and mentally tough. The 6-0 Razorbacks have played one game away from home - and they beat SMU, 78-72, in that contest. That was the fewest points the Razorbacks scored in a game - and they still won covering as 4-point 'dogs. They are averaging 90 points per game, only three teams average more. I really like Arkansas' backcourt of Michael Qualls and Rashad Madden. They've helped the Razorbacks lead the nation in assists per game at 20.7. Iowa State is 4-1. The Cyclones haven't been sharp, especially early, in three of their games. A slow start could doom them against the up-tempo Razorbacks. Arkansas has a good history in these spots covering nine of the last 12 times when facing an opponent with a winning record.
12-03-14	UNLV v. Arizona State -5	Top	55-77	Win	100	13 h 43 m	Show
UNLV is one of the least experienced teams in the country breaking in all new starters. The Rebels are not well coached and playing in their first real road game of the season. The Rebels' challenge is even more daunting because they are at Arizona State. The Sun Devils have won 20 of their last 21 games homes, including the past 12 at Wells Fargo Arena. Among the teams the Sun Devils have defeated during this span are Utah, Colorado, Oregon, then second-ranked Arizona, Colgate this season and Stanford, a team that beat UNLV by 21 points at a neutral site less than two weeks ago. UNLV has talent. But it's too early in the season for that talent to mesh. The Rebels have broken the 60-point barrier just once in their first five games and are shooting less than 58 percent from the foul line. The Sun Devils defeated the Rebels by six points last season - at UNLV. The Rebels can rebound and block shots, but lack the Sun Devils' experience and balanced attack. The Rebels have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games.
04-05-14	Kentucky v. Wisconsin +2	Top	74-73	Win	100	73 h 47 m	Show
Great coaching, preparation and team basketball trumps great individual freshman talent. That's the bottom line in this Final Four matchup as to why Wisconsin will beat Kentucky. The Badgers have always played tremendous defense under Ryan, who I consider one of the best coaches in the country. But this season Ryan actually has a talented offensive group with five versatile players, who can all hit an open 3-pointer including red-hot 7-footer Frank Kaminsky. It's not a fluke the Badgers have covered 10 of their last 11 non-league games. Kentucky is the first team to reach a Final Four starting all freshmen since Michigan's "Fab Five" did it in 1992. The Wildcats are off perhaps their three best games of the season beating Wichita State, Louisville and Michigan at the buzzer. Aside from getting past Arizona in overtime during their last game, the Badgers have been taking care off business in the NCAA Tournament in less dramatic fashion. The Badgers have yet to really play their "A" game while it's a lot to ask five starting freshmen to put together four straight magnificent efforts in the most pressure of pressure situations. Wisconsin's four other starters besides Kaminsky are capable of playing better. The Badgers still remain under the radar being the only team left to have taken out three No. 1 seeds. The Big Ten Conference also was tougher than the SEC this season. Kentucky has the tradition, name players and is a public team. But Wisconsin is the better team. It's a bonus the Badgers are catching points.
03-29-14	Wisconsin v. Arizona -3	Top	64-63	Loss	-105	19 h 18 m	Show
Wisconsin's Bo Ryan is a great coach. But he hasn't much time in a quick turnaround to prepare the Badgers to face the best and most athletic defensive team they've played all season. Wisconsin played a great game in burying Baylor two days ago. Arizona was able to get by San Diego State, 70-64, despite Nick Johnson, the Pac 12 Player of the Year, missing his first 10 shots. I don't see the Badgers putting together back-to-back "A" games while the Wildcats and Johnson are going to play better. It's not just Johnson as Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have been hot from the inside. They've helped the Wildcats outscore their opponents by 11 points per game in the paint. Playing in Anaheim is a plus for the Wildcats, too. The Badgers travel well, but they are not used to being on the West Coast. Arizona has covered seven of its last nine NCAA Tournament games and is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference matchups.
03-28-14	Connecticut +2 v. Iowa State	Top	81-76	Win	100	48 h 59 m	Show
Emotion, experience and matchups. They all heavily factor here - and these key factors all are in favor of Connecticut. Iowa State rode a lot of emotion into beating North Carolina, 85-83, this past Sunday to earn their way into the Sweet 16 motivated by the season-ending foot injury to George Niang, who is an excellent two-way player and maybe the best all-around player on the Cyclones. North Carolina had just one day to guess how Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg would compensate for that big injury. Connecticut has five days to prepare knowing Hoiberg went for size in replacing Niang giving 6-foot-8 Daniel Edozie his first start. Taking nothing away from Iowa State's gritty win against the Tar Heels, but North Carolina suffered an unexpected injury just two minutes into the game when 6--9 Brice Johnson left for good. Iowa State is going to have size and bench disadvantages against Connecticut. The Cyclones also aren't going to have that intangible show-the-world mentality now that the full reality of Niang's absence is felt and they won a game without him fueled by emotion. Helping Iowa State's cause against North Carolina was converting 12-of-26 3-pointers for 46 percent. The Cyclones converted 35.8 percent of their 3-pointers during the season. Iowa State is not Big Dance tournament tested like Connecticut is. The Huskies won the NCAA championship three years ago. Their star guard and leading scorer, Shabazz Napier, was part of that. He's having a big tournament and will be hard to stop, especially since Niang was one of the Cyclones' best and most versatile defenders. Iowa State also is going to have problems matching up against 6-9 DeAndre Daniels. The Huskies are used to playing in Madison Square Garden. Iowa State is not. The Huskies like to think of Madison Square Garden as their home away from home having competed annually there in the Big East Tournament until this season when they joined the American Athletic Conference. Playing in New York is like having home court advantage for the Huskies as their campus in less than a three-hour drive away and many of their fans live in the New York area.
03-27-14	Baylor +3.5 v. Wisconsin	Top	52-69	Loss	-104	9 h 21 m	Show
Both Wisconsin and Baylor come into the Sweet 16 playing well. The Badgers, though, aren't in Milwaukee anymore. They are far away from Wisconsin being in Anaheim, Calif. So their home-court edge they had in tournament victories against American and Oregon, a team they were fortunate to beat, no longer exists. Baylor is 12-2 in its last 14 games peaking at the best possible time. The Bears have the athleticism, height, offensive balance and matchup zone type of defense that Wisconsin hasn't encountered too often. The Bears have a lot of inside length, but also can make their 3-pointers shooting nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc. They can hurt the Badgers, a not strong rebounding team, on the boards. Baylor's 7-foot-1 center Isaiah Austin is averaging nearly four blocks a game during the Bears' six postseason games this season. I do think the Badgers have a coaching edge with Bo Ryan. However, the Bears' 17-3 tournament record in March during the last six years is highly impressive. Baylor reached the Elite Eight in 2010 and 2012. The Bears won the NIT title last season. Baylor is a very tough out so catching this many points is huge. The Bears are 9-3 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime. They have covered in 11 of their last 15 non-conference games and are 6-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600. Baylor beat Nebraska, 74-60, in its NCAA Tournament opener and then destroyed Creighton by 30 points. Wisconsin lost by nine on the road to Nebraska in its last regular season game.
03-23-14	Baylor +3.5 v. Creighton	Top	85-55	Win	100	11 h 15 m	Show
Baylor is playing its best basketball winning 11 of its last 13 games. The Bears are NCAA Tournament tested, have the height and big man talent to match up against Doug McDermott and the athleticism to frustrate the Blue Jays. These are the ingredients needed to upset Creighton. Baylor also is on its own home turf with the matchup being played in San Antonio, which is just 180 miles away from Waco. McDermott is a special talent. But the Bears have a front line that can contain him with 7-foot-1 Isaiah Austin, 6-9 Cory Jefferson and 6-6 Royce O'Neal. Austin was highly recruited and has a huge wing span. The Bears played well again in beating Nebraska 74-60 in their first-round tournament game. Baylor won that game despite its second leading scorer and top 3-point shooter, Brady Heslip, missing all six of his shots from beyond the arc. Look for Heslip to shoot much better. Heslip along with Jefferson and key contributor Gary Franklin all played for Baylor two years ago when the Bears made the Elite Eight.
03-22-14	Oregon +5 v. Wisconsin	Top	77-85	Loss	-102	10 h 22 m	Show
Wisconsin scores more this season, but its defense has slipped. The Badgers have been hurt more than most teams by the new rule that limits physical play. That's the style Bo Ryan has taught his Badgers, who lost three of their best defenders last year. The Badgers are vulnerable against fast-paced teams, who can knock down the 3-pointer plus get to the hoops and hit their free throws. Oregon has those traits. The Ducks ranked No. 8 in scoring, 31st in 3-point percentage and sixth in free throw percentage. The Ducks have three good guards - Joseph Young, Johnathan Loyd and Jason Calliste. I don't see the Badgers slowing all three down. The Badgers are not fast enough or athletic enough to keep up with Oregon, whose run-and-shoot style produces layups and open 3-pointers. The line is a bit inflated because of Wisconsin's 75-35 first-round blowout win against American. The Badgers are 2-6 ATS the past eight times following a point spread cover. Oregon is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times when playing at a neutral site.
03-21-14	Coastal Carolina +21.5 v. Virginia	Top	59-70	Win	100	15 h 37 m	Show
Coastal Carolina is better than a normal 16th seed with three good guards. The Chanticleers average close to 73 points a game and are 27th in the country in defensive field goal percentage. They will get good fan support playing in Raleigh, N.C., which is 2 1/2 hours from their campus in Conway, S.C. Virginia enters this tournament with very high expectations after winning the ACC title and conference tournament. The Cavaliers have the No. 1 defense in the land. They are a grinder on offense, though. This is going to be a very slow paced game, the kind of style that favors a big underdog such as Coastal Carolina. The over/under indicates the oddsmaker is anticipating a low-scoring game. So a correlated parlay to the 'dog and under makes sense if you're parlay-minded. Virginia has a shot to win the tournament. The Cavaliers are looking at this tournament in a long term way. They don't care how much they win this game by - they just want to win, conserve as much energy as they can and move on. The defensive-minded Cavaliers are not built to score a lot of points and cover huge margins like this. They average fewer than 66 points a game. Only once in their past 21 games have the Cavaliers beaten an opponent by more than 21 points. Coastal Carolina is playing in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1993. Its players obviously are very excited. The Chanticleers have nothing to lose. They can play loose. They will do all they can to not get embarrassed, nor is Virginia looking to embarrass this opponent. The Chanticleers are coached by Cliff Ellis, who knows the ACC having coaching Clemson for 10 years during the 1980s and '90s.
03-20-14	North Dakota State v. Oklahoma -3.5	Top	80-75	Loss	-110	9 h 7 m	Show
This is a case of fading an untested team at a short price. Oklahoma is in the bargain range with tremendous line value. The Big 12 very well may have been the best conference in the country. North Dakota State barely got past Indiana-Purdue-Fort Wayne in the Summit League Tournament title game. The best team the Bisons beat all season was Notre Dame, which had the third-worst record in the ACC. Both teams can score, but I trust the Sooners' scorers more. They have four players who average double figures and are excellent free throw shooters. Oklahoma is 8-1 ATS the past nine times versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600 while North Dakota State is 5-13 ATS when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600.
03-19-14	Iowa v. Tennessee +2.5	Top	65-78	Win	100	12 h 15 m	Show
Current form means a lot here in this opening NCAA Tournament game. Tennessee has won five of its last six games. The Volunteers' only loss during this span was against top-ranked Florida - and they nearly upset the Gators. Contrast this with Iowa. The Hawkeyes would be one of the worst teams in the Big 10 if you counted just the past 3 1/2 weeks. Iowa is 1-6 in its last seven games, 0-7 ATS. The Hawkeyes' defense is down. Their rebounding is off and they're struggling to make shots. Iowa did outrebound Northwestern during its last game this past Thursday in the Big Ten Conference Tournament - and still lost by five as a 13-point favorite. Tennessee ranks 18th in the nation in offensive rebounding. The Vols are far more athletic than Northwestern. Tennessee is playing top-notch defense, too, down the stretch giving up an average of only 47.4 points per game during its last five contests. On the season, the Vols hold foes to an average of just 40.8 percent shooting from the floor. This was a down year for the SEC. But the Big Ten really levels off after Michigan State, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes don't have a good track record in the NCAA either having last won a tournament game in 2001. It's been a distracting week for Iowa coach Fran McCaffery because his 13-year-old son underwent surgery to remove a tumor on his thyroid.
03-15-14	Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Virginia	Top	48-51	Win	100	4 h 25 m	Show
Often it takes one outstanding player playing great to help carry a team to a conference tournament title. Pittsburgh is getting that from senior Talib Zanna, who has scored 36 points and pulled down 30 rebounds in helping the Panthers advance to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament with victories over Wake Forest and North Carolina. In their last five games, the Panthers have scored 85 in overtime against Notre Dame, 67 versus North Carolina State, 83 in overtime against Clemson, 84 versus Wake Forest and 80 against the Tar Heels. Of course I don't see Pittsburgh putting up that many points against Virginia, but the Panthers are playing well and have a very strong defense, too, ranking 28th. Virginia nipped Pittsburgh, 48-45, when the teams last met on Feb. 2. The Cavaliers hit a last-second 3-pointer to win the game in a matchup that could have gone either way. This is going to be a scrappy matchup where taking points really matter.
03-13-14	Wyoming v. UNLV -8	Top	67-71	Loss	-110	7 h 59 m	Show
UNLV is well aware that it needs to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament in order to make the NCAA Tournament. The tournament is on UNLV's home court, the Thomas & Mack Center. The Rebels are finally healthy with Bryce Dejean-Jones returning from suspension and Roscoe Smith back from a concussion. Wyoming has been way down since losing its star leading scorer and rebounder, Larry Nance Jr. to a knee injury. The Cowboys have dropped four of five since. UNLV has never lost three in a row under David Rice. The Rebels are healthy, motivated, have home-court and catch Wyoming unable to recover from losing Nance.
03-11-14	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State -6	Top	69-63	Loss	-106	23 h 17 m	Show
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has been a great under-the-radar story this season meeting Wright State on the road for the Horizon League championship game with the winner securing a berth in the NCAA Tournament. But the clock strikes midnight for the Panthers here in the title matchup. Wright State has too much experience, balance and bench strong for UWM, which lost 24 of 32 games last season. The Panthers achieved their high water mark knocking off No. 1 seed Green Bay in overtime this past Saturday as an 11 1/2-point 'dog. It's way too much to expect the Panthers to hang in against another superior foe on the road on such short notice. Wright State certainly won't be taking UWM lightly either after losing 68-64 to the Panthers on the road. The Raiders buried the Panthers, 73-57, at home earlier this season. Only 20 teams in the country have allowed fewer points per game than Wright State.
03-08-14	Baylor v. Kansas State -3.5	Top	76-74	Loss	-106	9 h 25 m	Show
Revenge, senior day and a 15-game home win streak all help convince me to lay this semi-short number with Kansas State. This isn't just a typical revenge spot for the Wildcats. No loss bothered them more than losing at Baylor in double overtime by 14 points after leading by 10 with fewer than nine minutes to go in regulation. This also is the final home game for four Wildcat seniors, including Shane Southwell and Will Spradling. The Wildcats are 8-0 in Big 12 action at home. Among their victories were defeating Kansas by three, Iowa State by seven, Texas by 17 and Oklahoma State by 5 1/2. Baylor has a losing road record in Big 12 action. The Bears have lost on the road to Texas, Iowa State and Kansas with the average losing margin in these games being by 10 points.
03-06-14	Iowa v. Michigan State -3.5	Top	76-86	Win	100	15 h 44 m	Show
You have to go back to 1993 to find the last time Iowa won at Michigan State. The Spartans have won the last 17 times hosting the Hawkeyes, 15 in a row under Tom Izzo. The Spartans are on a two-game losing streak. They haven't lost three in a row all season and traditionally play their best ball under Izzo in March. When the Hawkeyes played at Breslin Center last season they lost by 34 points. Michigan State has covered four of the last five times off a loss. Izzo drove his players hard with two-a-day practices this week following a home loss to Illinois this past Saturday. That game, though, was important for the Spartans even though they lost because they finally had all their injured players back. Now they've had close to a week of intense practices to get back in sync. Michigan State has three home losses this season. The Spartans haven't lost four home games in a season since 1996-97. That was just Izzo's second season. Iowa is a decent, but far from great road club splitting eight of its Big Ten road games. The Hawkeyes haven't finished above .500 in Big Ten road games since 1997-98. The Spartans prevailed, 71-69, in overtime in the team's first meeting this season on Jan. 28. The Spartans won despite shooting 23 fewer free throws than Iowa and being without their second-leading scorer, Adreian Payne, and their leading rebounder Branden Dawson.
03-04-14	Miami (Fla) +4.5 v. Clemson	Top	54-58	Win	100	10 h 26 m	Show
The Hurricanes are proven road warriors and in need of a victory if they want to avoid playing during the first day of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament. Clemson locked up an opening day bye in the ACC tournament by getting past Maryland in double overtime this past Sunday. The Tigers exerted tremendous energy in going all out to achieve that victory with four of their starters playing 40 or more minutes. K.J. McDaniels logged 48 minutes while Landry Nnoko went 46 minutes. The Tigers are going to be laboring and facing one of the toughest defensive clubs in the nation. The Hurricanes rank 11th defensively giving up less than 60 points per game. They also are 32nd in defensive field goal percentage. Miami has covered six of its last eight road games and is 6-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning home mark. The Hurricanes are 5-1-1 ATS as conference road 'dogs.
03-03-14	Xavier -125 v. Seton Hall	Top	62-71	Loss	-125	7 h 22 m	Show
Xavier has the more talent of the two teams and catches Seton Hall lacking incentive and with losses in six of its last seven games. The Pirates haven't been a good home club. They are 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home contests. Xavier is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games and has revenge as the Pirates upset the Musketeers on the road, 68-60, as 8-point 'dogs. Fuquan Edwin, the Pirates' leading scorer, led Seton Hall with 18 points in that game. Edwin, though, is dealing with a thumb injury and may not play.
03-02-14	New Mexico -4.5 v. Nevada	Top	72-58	Win	100	11 h 17 m	Show
Nevada is fading badly losing and failing to cover in five of its last six games. The last time the Wolf Pack played at home - two games ago - they lost as a 13-point favorite to San Jose State. That's the Spartans' lone Mountain West Conference win in 16 league games. New Mexico holds a talent edge at every position except point guard and has a deeper bench. The Lobos rolled past the Wolf Pack, 90-72, on Feb. 15. New Mexico is 13-2 in the Mountain West and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games, including covering its past five away matchups. The Wolf Pack, on the other hand, have failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 home contests.
03-01-14	Iowa State v. Kansas State	Top	73-80	Win	100	15 h 10 m	Show
Kansas State has the best defense in the Big 12. Iowa State owns the best offense in the conference. But I see defense trumping offense in this matchup. The Wildcats are 14-1 at home. They have covered nine of their last 11 at Bramlage Coliseum. Their star freshman guard Marcus Foster is playing well averaging 20.9 points and shooting 50 percent from the floor during his last seven games. Senior forward Shane Southwell is close to 100 percent from a foot injury. Kansas State has a great home-court advantage, which is proven by a 23-6-1 ATS record in its last 30 home contests versus opponents with a winning road record, including a 10-3 ATS mark against foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Wildcats have covered 76 percent of the time in their last 17 games versus teams with a winning record. Iowa State, by contrast, has failed to cover in 10 of its last 13 Big 12 games. The Cyclones are 0-7 ATS during their past Saturday games. Kansas State has a strong revenge motive after losing 81-75 on Jan. 25 in Ames. In that six-point loss, the Wildcats made 42 percent of their shots from the floor compared to Iowa State hitting 48 percent. The Wildcats also shot 12 fewer free throws, which isn't likely to be the case at home.
02-28-14	Yale +7 v. Princeton	Top	46-57	Loss	-109	6 h 26 m	Show
Look for Yale to bounce back after Columbia ended the Bulldogs' seven-game winning streak. Yale is 22-8 ATS following a loss. Princeton is 4-6 in its last 10 games, which includes home defeats to Harvard and Columbia. Yale is 8-2 in its last 10 games, including a win at home and a 66-65 home victory against Princeton on a putback by Justin Sears in overtime. Princeton has been a big money-burner at home failing to cover in eight of its last nine home matchups.
02-27-14	Gonzaga -6 v. Pacific	Top	70-53	Win	100	18 h 56 m	Show
Gonzaga needs this game to clinch the West Coast Conference title and also to stop the pain of a two-game losing streak. If the Bulldogs lose here, they'll have to beat Saint Mary's on the road Saturday to win the title. So I see a very focused effort from the Bulldogs. Gonzaga is 7-2-1 ATS following a loss. The Bulldogs destroyed Pacific, 86-64, in the first meeting last month. Pacific doesn't have the needed perimeter defense to keep this close. The Tigers rank 346th in defending against 3-pointers. Gonzaga is in no mood to screw around after consecutive road losses to San Diego and BYU. The Bulldogs average 77.5 points per game. Pacific surrenders just under 75 points a game. The Tigers have lost three in a row by an average margin of 13.3 points a game to competitor inferior to Gonzaga.
02-26-14	Michigan -5 v. Purdue	Top	77-76	Loss	-102	8 h 29 m	Show
The line is purposely low because the oddsmaker is factoring a Michigan letdown after its big showdown victory this past Saturday at home against Michigan State. But what's not being factor correctly is how bad the Boilermakers are playing and how low their mental state is. The 15-12 Boilermakers aren't going anywhere especially after suffering a 76-57 thrashing at Nebraska that put an exclamation on their down season. Purdue is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games. It's one cover was a huge in-state win against rival Indiana. In their last home game, the Boilermakers lost 94-79 to Michigan State, a team the Wolverines just defeated by nine points. All together, the Boilermakers have dropped seven of their last nine. Morale is low and not helped by the news that senior guard Sterling Carter is out for the season after suffering a torn ACL in the loss to Nebraska. Even before this, the Boilermakers had shown little heart. Michigan is well-coached and knows a letdown loss to Purdue would negate its big win against Michigan State. Properly motivated, the Wolverines should bury the Boilermakers. They lead the Big Ten in free throw percentage while Purdue is last in the conference in free throw percentage.
02-25-14	Iowa -2.5 v. Minnesota	Top	89-95	Loss	-107	11 h 42 m	Show
Iowa enters this matchup angry coming off a 79-74 home loss to Wisconsin this past Saturday. The Hawkeyes are a perfect 6-0 following a loss. The Hawkeyes are fifth in the Big Ten behind Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. Iowa clearly is a notch above Minnesota, whose season has slipped away again. The Hawkeyes haven't lost to a team outside the RPI top 18. They destroyed the Gophers by 21 points in the first meeting this season. Minnesota chances of making the NCAA Tournament took a serious hit with losses in its last two games to Illinois and Ohio State by a combined 31 points. The Gophers have lost to unranked Illinois and Northwestern during two of their past three games at Williams Arena while losing six of their past eight overall games. Iowa has been a big money-maker on the road covering seven of its last eight on the highway.
02-23-14	Michigan State +2.5 v. Michigan	Top	70-79	Loss	-108	8 h 18 m	Show
Only once in its last five games has Michigan had a strong offensive performance. Take away a 79-point game against Nebraska and the Wolverines are averaging 62.7 points in their last four games. Michigan State is getting healthier with team assists leader Keith Appling back and is playing better covering four of its last five. The Spartans also are 8-1 ATS during their last nine road contests and 7-3 ATS versus opponents with a win percentage above .600. Michigan won the first meeting, 80-75. But the Spartans were missing senior center Adreian Payne due to a foot injury. Payne is averaging 18 points and 6.8 rebounds in five games since returning. I don't see Michigan matching up well inside against Michigan State with Payne back on the court plus the Spartans are sure to get better looks at the basket with Payne in the lineup.
02-22-14	LSU v. Kentucky -11.5	Top	76-77	Loss	-106	10 h 56 m	Show
LSU is garbage on the road and faces a revenge-minded Kentucky team that plays far better at home and is in good form. Kentucky has won five of six since losing 87-82 on the road to LSU. The Wildcats' only loss during this span was to second-ranked Florida. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS the past six times they've been double-digit home favorites this season. LSU is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight road games versus opponents with a winning home mark. The Tigers have lost and failed to cover in their last three away matchups falling to Arkansas, Texas A&M and Georgia during this span by an average losing margin of 10.6 points. Kentucky is much stronger than those teams. The Wildcats hold a huge rebounding edge. I see a fast-paced Kentucky offense pouring in points and taking advantage of missed shots with second and third chances.
02-20-14	Michigan State -4.5 v. Purdue	Top	94-79	Win	100	15 h 26 m	Show
Tom Izzo has been cracking the whip hard since the Spartans suffered a shocking home loss this past Sunday to Nebraska. The Spartans have a huge game this Sunday against arch-rival Michigan, but that matchup will lose some of its luster if Michigan State loses this game to Purdue. It's something Izzo and his well-coached players are well aware of. While Michigan State is off a bad loss, Purdue is off its best win of the season, an 18-point victory against Indiana. The Boilermakers are fat and happy now. They aren't going to the NCAA Tournament. They are 5-7 in the Big Ten, 2-5 in their last seven games and have failed to cover in six of their past seven home contests. The Spartans need this game to set up their showdown for first place in the Big Ten with Michigan. Izzo is too good of a coach to have his team overlook the Boilermakers, especially off a terrible loss. The 21-5 Spartans have won their following game after each of their first four losses. Izzo has had to deal with injuries but expects to have senior guard Keith Appling available. The Spartans have handled Purdue in the past winning the last five meetings. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Mackey Arena. Michigan State has won 10 of its 12 road contests while covering seven of the past eight times away from East Lansing.
02-19-14	Arizona State v. Colorado -3.5	Top	52-61	Win	100	15 h 45 m	Show
Colorado has gotten back on track after losing star guard Spencer Dinwiddie. The Buffaloes have won of their last five and catch Arizona State in a bad situational spot. The Sun Devils are on the road after a thrilling 69-66 double-overtime home win against in-state rival and No. 4 ranked Arizona this past Friday. Arizona State has lost and failed to cover in three of its last four road Pac-12 games. Colorado, firmly on the bubble, is at home where it is 15-1 this season.
02-18-14	South Florida +23 v. Louisville	Top	54-80	Loss	-110	9 h 9 m	Show
Yes, South Florida is terrible. But this is a real letdown spot for fifth-ranked Louisville and the line is inflated. The Cardinals are off a couple of easy victories last week, including destroying Rutgers 102-54 this past Saturday. Louisville has failed to cover the past eight times after scoring 100 points in its previous game. The Cardinals have a far bigger game on deck this Saturday when they travel to Cincinnati to meet the AAC-leading Bearcats, who they trail by 1 1/2 games. South Florida plays respectable defense, can slow the pace down and has revenge for an embarrassing 39-point home loss to Louisville.
02-17-14	NC-Wilmington v. William & Mary -10	Top	70-93	Win	100	15 h 47 m	Show
There is a clear class difference here. William & Mary is one of the three best teams in the Colonial Athletic Association while North Carolina-Wilmington is the worst team in the league. The Seahawks are 2-15 in their last 17 CAA contests. They have been especially bad on the road losing 13 of 16 times. But is William & Mary good enough to cover a double-digit point spread against the Seahawks? I believe the answer is yes. The Tribe is off a very disappointing 85-70 home loss to Towson two days ago. That was their first home game back after three consecutive road matchups, a difficult situational spot. William & Mary has covered the past six times following a straight-up defeat. The Tribe also is 9-1 ATS when facing a below .500 opponent. The Tribe shot 36 percent from 3-point range in the loss to Towson going 9-for-25. The Tribe' 3-point shooting also was off in their first meeting against North Carolina-Wilmington. William & Mary missed 23 of 30 shots from beyond the arch in that game for 30.4 percent. Yet it still won 54-50 on the road although the Seahawks had a chance to tie but missed an inside shot with 10 seconds left. William & Mary ranks 19th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.6. They are 53rd in field goal percentage. The Tribe figures to shoot better this time around and won't lack for motivation after the stinging Towson loss from two days ago. The Seahawks aren't good enough to stay with the Tribe on the road if William & Mary plays well.
02-16-14	Wisconsin +4.5 v. Michigan	Top	75-62	Win	100	7 h 15 m	Show
After a rough 1-5 patch, Wisconsin is turning things around winning three in a row. The last two victories by the Badgers have come against Michigan State and Minnesota at home. I see the Badgers continuing to salvage their season as they take to the road. Wisconsin is playing much better than four weeks ago when it lost 77-70 to Michigan at home. The Wolverines shot 54.7 percent from the floor in that win, including 53.8 percent from 3-point range. The Badgers have gone back to their tough, physical aggressive defensive approach that has been their trademark under Bo Ryan, a coach I regard as one of the best in the country. The underdog has covered the past five times in this series. Michigan hasn't beaten Wisconsin twice during the regular season since 1998 and Wisconsin has covered five of its last seven road matchups.
02-15-14	Pittsburgh v. North Carolina -3.5	Top	71-75	Win	100	9 h 18 m	Show
Matchup-wise and situation-wise this one squarely lines up on the side of North Carolina. Pittsburg is banged-up, weary and mentally down after nearly upsetting unbeaten Syracuse this past Wednesday. The Orangemen pulled out the two-point victory when Tyler Ennis hit a long 3-pointer at the buzzer. That was in Pittsburgh. Now the Panthers face even a tougher assignment - cover a short number at North Carolina against the red-hot and well-rested Tar Heels. North Carolina is 6-1 in its last seven games, playing its finest ball of the season. The Tar Heels have had ample time to rest and game plan, too, having been idle for a week. This is just their second game in 10 days as their matchup this past Wednesday against Duke was postponed due to weather conditions. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is in action for the fourth time in 10 days and could be missing two key players - Lamar Patterson and Talib Zanna. They were both injured against Syracuse. Patterson, who leads the Panthers in scoring and assists, suffered a thumb injury. Zanna, who leads the Panthers in rebounding, blocks and shooting percentage, suffered an ankle injury. Not having these two, or if they are limited, really would hurt the Panthers. The Tar Heels have an excellent point guard in Marcus Paige and they lead the ACC in rebounding margin. The Panthers outrebounded Syracuse, but prior to that had not been rebounding well in recent games.
02-14-14	Pennsylvania v. Yale -9	Top	54-69	Win	100	9 h 50 m	Show
Yale is far superior to Penn especially at home. The Quakers are 1-8 on the road, 3-5 ATS. They have lost their last two Ivy League road games by a combined 39 points and are 3-7 ATS during their past 10 visits to Yale. Yale is playing its best ball of the season winning four in a row, including beating Harvard, 74-67, last weekend as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog. The Bulldogs have covered seven of their last nine conference matchups. The line is lower than I thought probably because Penn is off a home win against Columbia. The Quakers, though, are 5-17-1 ATS following a victory.
02-13-14	Arkansas v. Missouri -5	Top	85-86	Loss	-106	15 h 54 m	Show
This is a pivotal game for both teams, but Missouri has a strong situational edge returning home after three consecutive road losses, the first time that's happened under Frank Haith. Arkansas is strong at home, weak on the road. The Razorbacks are 1-9 away from home. They have covered less than 30 percent of their last 76 road matchups and are 2-7 ATS when going against foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Razorbacks are 3-22 on the road and 3-19 versus SEC teams on the road. The only SEC teams the Razorbacks have beaten on the road during this span are Vanderbilt and Auburn. Missouri beat the Razorbacks in Arkansas, 77-75, on Jan. 28. It was the fifth time in the last six meetings the Tigers have covered against Arkansas. The Tigers are guard-oriented, but a key to their win was outrebounding the Razorbacks by 16. Arkansas' lack of rebounding is a real negative especially on the road.
02-12-14	Kentucky v. Auburn +7.5	Top	64-56	Loss	-106	7 h 6 m	Show
Kentucky isn't the same on the road and has a huge look-ahead game on Saturday against fourth-ranked Florida. The Wildcats have a losing straight-up record in true road matchups this season. They are 5-15-2 ATS during their past 22 road contests. Auburn has covered five of its past six home games. The Tigers also have covered five of the last six in the series. Auburn is coming on after a slow start, due in part to a very strong schedule. The Tigers are playing much better now winning their past three games. Auburn does face a strong challenge in the frontcourt, but has a tremendous guard in senior Chris Denson, who leads the SEC in scoring at 20.2 points per game. He's been red-hot shooting 56.7 percent from the field during his last four games.
02-11-14	Southern Illinois +17 v. Wichita State	Top	67-78	Win	100	10 h 15 m	Show
Unbeaten Wichita State returns home after a tough two-game road swing having achieved victories against Indiana State and Northern Iowa. The Shockers hold a commanding three-game lead in the Missouri Valley Conference with six matchups remaining. After this matchup the Shockers go back on the road for their next two games. The Shockers rolled past the Salukis, 82-67, in the first meeting. That was Southern Illinois' opening conference game of the season. I see Wichita State in a letdown spot and Southern Illinois being much improved since that first loss to the Shockers. The Salukis have made several lineup changes since then. They are 5-2 during their past seven conference games. The Salukis have gotten a lift from freshmen Tyler Smithpeters and Bola Olaniyan. Those two logged a combined four minutes against Wichita State in the first meeting. Southern Illinois enters this matchup playing its best ball having won four in a row -three of them coming by 16 or more points - while connecting on 16 of 30 3-pointers during its last two games. The Salukis have covered in eight of their last 11 trips to Wichita State. They played the Shockers extremely tough last season winning at home by two as 10-point 'dogs and losing by six at Koch Arena last season.
02-10-14	Kansas v. Kansas State +4	Top	82-85	Win	100	12 h 47 m	Show
Kansas State is a whole different team when playing at home capable of beating any team in the country. The Wildcats have proven that winning eight of the past 11 times against quality foes at Bramlage Coliseum. The Wildcats not only were sharp two days ago in a 74-57 home win against Texas, but none of their starters were too taxed as nobody played more than 30 minutes. Kansas has great talent, but is inexperienced and not used to playing in this type of road setting. Wildcats freshman guard Marcus Foster has been playing great scoring 57 points during the last two games. Kansas stopped him in the team's first meeting this season holding him to seven points on 3-of-12 shooting from the floor. Look for Foster to have a much better game this time around. Kansas State has the necessary guard pressure to force turnovers and hit their perimeter shots to avoid the Jayhawks' tall front line.
02-09-14	Temple v. Houston -2.5	Top	74-88	Win	100	4 h 3 m	Show
Both of these teams are struggling, but the Cougars' last five losses have been against brutal competition - Louisville, at Memphis, SMU, at Rutgers and at UConn. Now the Cougars step down in class and should get the job done against a Temple squad that lost too much from last season and is 1-10 in its last 11 games. The Owls also are 2-7 ATS the past nine times they've played a foe with a losing mark.
02-06-14	IUPU Ft Wayne +5 v. South Dakota State	Top	51-79	Loss	-121	15 h 2 m	Show
IPFW of Fort Wayne Indiana is one of those under-the-radar teams that has been a solid money-maker. The Mastodons are leading the Summit League with a 6-1 mark and have covered 12 of their last 16 games. The Mastodons are getting points at South Dakota State, a team they are better than. The Mastodons defeated the Jackrabbits by seven points at home last month. South Dakota State is 12-10. IPFW Fort Wayne is 18-6. The Mastodons have covered 78 percent of their last 29 games. They are 10-4-1 ATS during their last 15 road contests. The Jackrabbits outscore their opponents by only one point per game when playing at home. They are 1-7-1 ATS the last nine times when going against an opponent with a winning record. Sometimes dealing with under-the-radar type matchups that look too good often can backfire. That shouldn't be the case here. Sources tell me the Mastodons are much better than South Dakota State. So taking this many points makes sense.
02-05-14	Stanford +4 v. California	Top	80-69	Win	100	16 h 2 m	Show
All games are big in the very competitive Pac-12, but Cal not only has to contend with a solid Stanford club but refocus after its historic upset of top-ranked Arizona this past Saturday. Stanford is a blue-collar team that usually plays with a great deal of intelligence. The Cardinal has a solid starting five with Chasson Randle, Dwight Powell, Josh Huestis, Anthony Brown and much improved center Stefan Nastic. The Cardinal lost 69-62 to Cal in its Pac-12 opener on Jan. 2. The Cardinal was hurt by Nastic and Powell, who leads the team in assists and steals, fouling out. This would be a very close game anyways, but with Cal's focus under question it's enough to make Stanford a strong play.
02-03-14	South Alabama +13 v. Georgia State	Top	65-85	Loss	-106	9 h 12 m	Show
This matchup was originally scheduled for last Thursday but was postponed until today because of bad weather conditions in the greater Atlanta area. It's a break for the underdog Jaguars. They know Georgia State having lost to them a month ago by 10 points. They've had more time now to prepare. It's a bigger matchup for South Alabama, which needs to get its season turned around in order to be one of the eight teams to qualify for the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. South Alabama has yet to win on the road, but Georgia State is 1-6 in its last seven home games. The Panthers are on cruise control having won 12 in a row, leading the Sun Belt with an 8-0 league mark. Georgia State has a much bigger game on deck traveling to Arkansas Little-Rock on Thursday. South Alabama has the talent level to hang within double digits. The Jaguars rank first in the Sun Belt in defensive field goal percentage. They should have a good game plan in place. The key is playing hard, which the Jaguars should do with a revenge motive, catching Georgia State in a look-ahead spot and knowing that right now they would be one of two Sun Belt teams that wouldn't make the conference tournament.
02-02-14	UCLA -4.5 v. Oregon State	Top	67-71	Loss	-110	6 h 34 m	Show
There are a lot of trends going against Oregon State in this matchup and I think they make sense. UCLA should play better than it did during a 70-68 Thursday victory against Oregon. Oregon State nipped Southern Cal in overtime on Thursday. The Beavers are 5-12-1 ATS following a victory. I am not a fan of Oregon State coach Craig Robinson. The Bruins have owned the Beavers going 15-5-1 ATS in the series and are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight visits to Oregon State. The Bruins also have covered during their past six games on Sunday.
02-01-14	Providence -4.5 v. DePaul	Top	77-72	Win	100	7 h 31 m	Show
DePaul is too short-handed to hang with Providence, which is in a revenge spot and off a bad game. The Blue Demons' leading scorer Cleveland Melvin still is under suspension and star rookie point guard Billy Garrett Jr. also is out. This should mean a big game for the Friars' star point guard Bryce Cotton. DePaul knocked off the Friars in Providence last season. However, the Friars have won three of their last four at DePaul. The Blue Demons are off losses to Villanova, Xavier and Seton Hall by a combined 53 points. The Blue Demons also have failed to cover in 17 of their last 23 home contests and 5-11 ATS following a straight-up loss.
01-29-14	Northwestern +17 v. Wisconsin	Top	65-56	Win	100	17 h 43 m	Show
Northwestern has gotten a lot better since losing 76-49 to Wisconsin in its Big Ten opener on Jan. 2. The Wildcats have gone 3-4 since then, including knocking off Indiana. Northwestern's four losses during this span have come to Michigan State, Michigan and Iowa twice - all teams ranked in the top 20. The Wildcats are high-energy, smart and play strong defense. They are well-coached under first-year coach Chris Collins. Northwestern is allowing just 53.2 points per game in its last four games. That includes a 76-50 loss to Iowa in its last game. The Wildcats got hammered in the second half because they wore down due to Iowa's superior depth. Wisconsin doesn't have a strong bench. The Badgers are also in a look-ahead spot. Wisconsin just ended its three-game losing streak with an important road win against Purdue and hosts Ohio State on Saturday. Wisconsin is 5-12 ATS during its past 17 home games versus a foe with a losing road record. The Wildcats play a very slow tempo. They can frustrate the Badgers while also killing large chunks of the clock, which is great for such a big underdog.
01-28-14	Missouri v. Arkansas -5.5	Top	75-71	Loss	-128	10 h 7 m	Show
Missouri has never won at Arkansas in six career tries. The Tigers are off a win against South Carolina, but have failed to cover the past six times following a win. The Tigers don't generate enough ball movement to hang close against Arkansas in one of the toughest road venues in the country. The Tigers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games and 3-10-1 ATS during their past 14 away matchups against foes with a winning home mark. Arkansas leads the SEC in scoring and assists per game at 16.2. Bobby Portis can cause problems for Missouri inside. Arkansas also is the more balanced team.
01-20-14	Creighton +6.5 v. Villanova	Top	96-68	Win	100	4 h 5 m	Show
Too many points for Villanova to be laying to such a quality opponent. The Blue Jays are underpriced after suffering an 81-68 road loss to Providence. Prior to that, the Blue Jays had won 10 in a row. They lead the nation in 3-point shooting and are second in assists. They also have superstar big man Doug McDermott.
01-16-14	UCLA +2 v. Colorado	Top	69-56	Win	100	8 h 35 m	Show
UCLA's only loss in its last five games came to unbeaten No. 1 ranked Arizona by four points. The Bruins are off an impressive 15-point win against Arizona State this past Sunday and catch Colorado when the Buffaloes are in a vulnerable position. Colorado was blown out at Washington in its last game. Worse, the Buffaloes lost star point guard Spencer Dimwiddie for the season with a knee injury. Without their leading scorer and assists leader, the Buffaloes committed 20 turnovers and none of their players had more than one assist against the Huskies once Dimwiddie went out of the game. Colorado is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven Pac-12 games.
01-14-14	Kentucky v. Arkansas +1	Top	85-87	Win	100	11 h 41 m	Show
Arkansas walloped Kentucky at home last season, 73-60, and I see the Razorbacks doing it again this season. The home/road splits clearly indicate this. Arkansas is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home contests. The Razorbacks average nearly 16 more points per game at home than on the road Kentucky is 1-9-2 ATS during its past 12 road matchups and have historically struggled in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks had won 23 straight at Bud Walton Arena until losing in overtime to 10th-ranked Florida this past Saturday. The Razorbacks lead the SEC in assists. They have three solid guards. Arkansas is averaging more than 94 points a game during its last four home contests. Arkansas also has the upfront defense to contain Kentucky star Julius Randle.
01-09-14	Pepperdine +15.5 v. BYU	Top	72-84	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
These two teams met just 10 days ago and Pepperdine knocked off BYU, 80-74. Revenge means something, but this line is too out of whack especially since the Cougars might be without star freshman forward Eric Mika, who is averaging 16 points and six boards per game. He suffered a hip bruise in BYU's last game, an 87-53 win against San Diego. BYU has failed to cover 22 of the last 29 times when winning its previous game by more than 20 points. Pepperdine is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. The Wave can take advantage of Mika's possible absence with big men Stacy Davis and Brendan Lane.
12-20-13	Nebraska-Omaha +16 v. Minnesota	Top	79-92	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
This is a funny situational spot for Minnesota. The Gophers haven't played in 10 days and won't play for another week after this game. So some rust is expected. Motivation could lack, too. Nebraska-Omaha shouldn't lack for motivation having four players on its team from Minnesota, which is three more than the Gophers have. The Mavericks have proven pesky in winning five in a row while covering in five of their last six non-conference games. The Mavericks upset Nevada six days ago. They lost to UNLV by 3, Iowa by 8 and Drake by 8. All of those games were on the road. The Mavericks can score points in bunches. They average 84.5 points a game, which is 22nd best in the country.
11-18-13	Southern Methodist v. Arkansas -3.5	Top	78-89	Win	100	9 h 37 m	Show
Both teams are 2-0 but the spot favors Arkansas. The Razorbacks have won 16 in a row at Bud Walton Arena. Their last home loss came against powerful Syracuse. Arkansas has won 36 straight at home against unranked non-conference opponents. The Razorbacks have covered eight of their last 10 home contests. They have won by 11 or more points in their last four home games. SMU is coming off a satisfying revenge win against Rhode Island in its first home game back at renovated Moody Coliseum. The Mustangs are 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times when playing an opponent with a winning mark. Larry Brown is trying to upgrade the Mustangs' talent level as they make the switch from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference. The Mustangs are in transition at this very early point of the season and must deal with a tough road venue and Arkansas coach Mike Anderson's "40 Minutes of Hell" system that relies on heavy full-court pressure.
04-06-13	Michigan v. Syracuse +2.5	Top	61-56	Loss	-110	44 h 20 m	Show
The early money has been on Michigan. But Syracuse is the right side. The Orangemen have experience and the defensive edge to beat the Wolverines. No team during the post-season has played better defense than Syracuse The Orange have held their last five opponents to 32 percent shooting from the floor. Syracuse has covered in nine of its last 12 non-conference matchups. I don't see Michigan being able to solve Jim Boeheim's vaunted matchup zone either. Trey Burke and the rest of the Wolverines have not faced such tall guards with huge wingspans such as Michael Carter-Williams. The Wolverines are also going to have problems trying to score inside. Michigan lacks Syracuse's experience, depth and savvy. The Wolverines use five freshmen as part of their nine-man rotation. Michigan coach John Beilein has some idea of what's in store for his team having spent five years as a coach in the Big East with West Virginia. Let it be noted, though, that Beilein is 0-9 lifetime against Syracuse.
04-02-13	Brigham Young v. Baylor -3	Top	70-76	Win	100	18 h 55 m	Show
The top-ranked, top-seeded Baylor women were upset in the NCAA Tournament. The Baylor men aren't going to let the same fate happen to them. Baylor meets BYU in an NIT semifinal game at Madison Square Garden. Baylor and BYU met once already during the season and Baylor won, 79-64, at home. The Bears won because they are the superior team. Baylor has the stronger offense and bench. The Bears are averaging 93.3 points in their three NIT games. BYU is a high-scoring team, too, but can't match that. The Cougars are averaging 86.3 points per game in the tournament. Depth plays a crucial role now this late in the long season. Baylor has it. The Bears' bench has outscored their opponents' reserves, 73-42, and won the battle of the boards by a 45-19 margin. Baylor is strong inside with Cory Jefferson and 7-foot-1 Isaiah Austin, who ranked third in the Big 12 in rebounding. The Bears also have that important leadership and skill level at point guard with senior Pierre Jackson. He led the Big 12 in scoring and assists. Jackson also set an assists record with 16 during the Bears' second-round victory against Arizona State. BYU just isn't in Baylor's class. The Cougars have failed to cover the past four times when playing on a neutral floor.
03-30-13	Syracuse v. Marquette +5	Top	55-39	Loss	-106	4 h 21 m	Show
Syracuse has a big edge when playing an opponent not familiar in dealing with the Orangemen's vaunted 2-3 zone. The Orange have exploited that so far in the NCAA Tournament. But now Syracuse comes up against a familiar foe - Marquette. The Golden Eagles have covered in their last five meeting with Syracuse because they know how to attack the 2-3 zone. The Golden Eagles have the combination of inside power and speed to slice through Syracuse's zone or to pound inside if necessary. When the teams last met in February, Marquette won straight-up. Unlike other tournament survivors, the Golden Eagles are playing with a huge chip on their shoulder feeling disrespected. Marquette got its bad games out of the way. I see the Golden Eagles continuing to peak.
03-29-13	Michigan State v. Duke UNDER 134.5	Top	61-71	Win	100	21 h 54 m	Show
Give me a reason to go under in a big Michigan State game and I'll take it. In this matchup, there are plenty of reasons to look for the total to go under. Hard nosed Michigan State ranks in the top 30 in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and defensive rebounding. Duke ranks 15th in defending against 3-pointers. The Spartans' leading scoring and assists leader, point guard Keith Appling, is dealing with knee and shoulder injuries although he is expected to play. However, his shooting could be off. In fact, I expect both teams to have problems shooting because this game is being played in Lucas Oil Stadium, a football stadium. Basketball players are not used to shooting in this type of atmosphere. They are going to have problems getting accustomed to the background. Duke did a great job defending against Doug McDermott, one of the best big people in the country, and Creighton in its last game. The Blue Devils held Creighton, the nation's second-best shooting team, to a season low in points and shooting percentage. McDermott missed 12 of 16 shots from the field. The Blue Devils made less than 39 percent of their field goals in that game, an ominous sign when stepping up to face rugged Michigan State. The under has covered the past seven times the Spartans have gone against an above .600 percent opponent. Duke and Michigan State have combined to go under in nine of its last 10 non-conference matchups.
03-28-13	Syracuse +5.5 v. Indiana	Top	61-50	Win	100	12 h 36 m	Show
The buck stop here for indiana. Syracuse can match the Hoosiers in toughness, has athletes and is playing in Big East terriotry - Verizon Center. The Orangemen have covered eight of their last 11 nonleague games. Temple threw a scare into Indiana. Now the Hoosiers have a real matchup problem. The spread is high here especially considering that the talent level is even. Syracuse probably is going to have three players drafted by NBA teams in Michael Carter-Williams, James Southerland and Brandon Triche. The Hooisers don't have a guard tall enough to handle Carter-Williams. Syracuse' two greatest strengths are defensive rebounding and committng turnovers. Indiana is vulnerable in both of these areas when playing top-level competition. I see the Hooisers, who prefer a fast tempo, struggling against the Orangemen's slow half-court style. The Orange ranked third nationally in field goal percentage defense and sixth defending three-pointers. I don't see the Hoosiers getting a lot of good looks against Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone that held Montana to 20.4 perccent from the field and California to 39 percent from the floor during the first two games of the tournament. Montana and Cal shot a combined 4-for-45 from 3-point range.

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