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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-23-19	Murray State +5 v. Florida State	Top	62-90	Loss	-115	16 h 12 m	Show
On the surface, this spread should be higher, right? A good ACC team in Florida State taking on Murray State from the Ohio Valley Conference. But there is more than meets the eye here. Murray State is legitimate and on a roll with 12 straight wins. Racers guard Ja Morant may be the second-best player in college basketball in back of only Duke's Zion Williamson. The Racers didn't just beat but dominated a very strong Marquette squad, 83-64, on Thursday. The Racers are on a mission to showcase their talents and Morant's superstar game - 24.4 points, 10.2 assists and 50.4 percent shooting statistics on the season. Florida State had to endure a rugged ACC slate and reaching the conference tournament title game. So sure the Seminoles are battle tested, but the flip side is they also have a higher fatigue factor. That may have been played a part in their less-than-sterling 76-69 non-cover win against Vermont on Thursday. Vermont sank 16 of 32 shots from 3-point range. That could prove telling against the up-tempo gunning Racers. Florida State relies on its size and defense to beat opponents. The Seminoles don't have a Morant. Murray State, though, has a couple of big man pounders in KJ Williams and Darrell Coward to keep competitive on the boards. The Racers are 8-2 ATS, too, during their last 10 non-conference games. Florida State is 1-6 ATS the past three plus seasons under Leonard Hamilton when laying points in post-season tournament action.
03-22-19	Arizona State v. Buffalo -4.5	Top	74-91	Win	100	13 h 42 m	Show
Buffalo blasted Arizona, 89-68, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. I easily can see the Bulls doing the same to a much worse Arizona State squad. The Bulls are the MAC champions. So it's easy to point out they are a mid-major, but Buffalo dominated that conference while the Pac-12 was way down this season. I don't see the Sun Devils being able to keep pace with the Bulls especially with point guard Remy Martin dealing with a groin injury. I'm sure Martin, the catalyst for the Sun Devils, will play but I doubt he will be 100 percent. The Bulls are riding a 12-game winning streak. They are the more rested team having last played on Saturday. ASU had to beat St. John's on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio to reach this game. This marks the Sun Devils' third game in eight days - all in different time zones. Buffalo is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 84.9 points. That's more than seven points better than what Arizona averages. The Bulls certainly aren't going to lack motivation taking on a Pac-12 opponent especially with the added incentive of going against Bobby Hurley, the former coach of Buffalo. Bulls coach Nate Oats was Hurley's lead assistant and recruiting coordinator before replacing his departed mentor. Note, too, that Buffalo is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games against nonconference opponents.
03-21-19	Florida v. Nevada -2	Top	70-61	Loss	-109	21 h 40 m	Show
Nevada has far more talent and experience than Florida. The Gators are lucky to have made the Tournament given that they have 15 losses. The Wolf Pack paid their dues last season. They reached the Sweet 16 and have all their key pieces back. I consider Eric Musselman one of the top coaches in the nation. The spread is lower than I thought. One reason for this could be Nevada getting upset, 65-56, as 10 1/2-point favorites against San Diego State in the semifinals Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Wolf Pack are much better than that. They were missing their second leading scorer and top rebounder, Jordan Caroline, in that game. Carolina is expected to play here. Nevada is 19-6-1 ATS following a loss.
03-19-19	Dayton v. Colorado -4.5	Top	73-78	Win	100	28 h 48 m	Show
Unlike the NCAA Tournament, some teams aren't excited about getting to play in the NIT. Dayton is one such team. The Flyers finished their regular season in highly disappointing style losing, 64-55, as 4 1/2-point favorites against St. Louis in their opening game of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. Indications are the Flyers are not excited about traveling to Boulder, Colo., for this matchup. Not helping matters for the Flyers is their leading scorer, Obi Toppin, is deaing with a knee injury. Contrary to Dayton, Colorado is excited about competing in this tournament. The Buffaloes are young and expect to return all of their main players for next season. They want to use this tournament to gain more big-game experience. The Buffaloes are 10-3 in their last 13 games. They also have covered eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. This is what Colorado coach Tad Boyle was quoted as saying about his team and playing in the NIT: "We're playing well here down the stretch. There are a few teams that are leaking oil this time of year, but we're not one of them. I like the way we're playing and really the key for our guys is they are excited, they are going to embrace this. They did not want their season to end."
03-17-19	Michigan v. Michigan State OVER 129.5	Top	60-65	Loss	-114	12 h 29 m	Show
This is the third meeting between these two teams. The total opened the lowest of the three games. I understand that thinking since Michigan and Michigan State know each other backward and forward now. But I also believe there are factors and facts that will make this the highest scoring matchup of the three games. Michigan is playing well. The Wolverines scored 74 and 76 points, respectively, in beating Iowa and Minnesota so far in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. They are in a nice scoring groove. Michigan State is averaging 76 points in its two games versus the Wolverines. The Spartans are averaging 77.5 points in their last four games and that includes a 67-point game against Wisconsin, which has the ninth-ranked defense in the country. The Wolverines haven't been able to stop Michigan State's star guard, Cassius Winston, who has hurt Michigan with his shooting and working the pick-and-roll with Xavier Tillman. It's a plus for Michigan State if Nick Ward can produce points in the low post after returning from a broken hand. Michigan's scoring is going to be helped because Charles Matthews, its third-leading scorer, is back. He hurt his ankle in the first meeting between the teams and sat out the second get together.
03-16-19	Georgia Southern v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 147	Top	58-67	Win	100	7 h 53 m	Show
If you're going to get involved playing an Under in the Sun Belt Conference this is the game to do it. Georgia Southern and Texas Arlington rank among the three best defensive teams in the league. The Under has cashed the past six times in the series. The two games this season averaged 140 points. Georgia Southern has gone Under in seven of its last eight games. The Mavericks have gone Under 23 times in their last 133 games. Note, too, this game is played at neutral site Lakefront Arena in New Orleans, which has a reputation of being a tough place to shoot because of the backdrop.
03-15-19	Colorado v. Washington -120	Top	61-66	Win	100	18 h 55 m	Show
The Pac-12 was way down again this season. If there is one decent team in the conference, though, it's Washington. I don't see Colorado getting past the Huskies. The Buffaloes can't solve Washington's tough zone defense. The Huskies are the best team in the Pac-12 because of their league-leading defense giving up 62.3 points a game and ranking No. 2 in the conference in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Huskies are 4-0 SU and ATS versus the Buffaloes the past two seasons. Washington has won these games by an average of 12 points holding the Buffaloes to an average of 61.5 points a game during this span. The teams met just three weeks ago and the Huskies won, 64-55, at home. The Huskies forced 19 turnovers and held Colorado to a season-low in points.
03-11-19	San Diego +5 v. St. Mary's	Top	62-69	Loss	-109	9 h 18 m	Show
San Diego is playing well going 3-0 SU and ATS in the West Coast Conference Tournament. The Toreros enter this semifinal matchup with a lot of confidence having just destroyed BYU, 80-57, on Saturday. They are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times taking on foes with a winning record. St. Mary's enters the tournament off a disheartening loss to Gonzaga. That was nine days ago. So the Gaels are going to have some rust. Note this game is at neutral site Las Vegas. St. Mary's is 2-7 ATS the past nine times when playing at a neutral site.
03-10-19	Iowa v. Nebraska +1	Top	91-93	Win	100	11 h 25 m	Show
Nebraska plays much better defense at home and as bad as the Cornhuskers have been against the spread lately, Iowa has been worse. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover in their last seven games. Fran McCaffery is back coaching the Hawkeyes after being suspended the previous two games. But Iowa hasn't been good for the past three weeks. If it weren't for a home overtime victory against Indiana, the Hawkeyes would be riding a five-game losing streak instead of a three-game loss streak. The Cornhuskers have revenge for a 93-84 road loss to the Hawkeyes on Jan. 6. Nebraska surrenders 16.3 fewer points per game at home. This is Senior Day at Nebraska and I expect James Palmer and Glynn Watson to play well. This has been a home series with the host covering the last four times.
03-09-19	Northern Arizona v. Northern Colorado UNDER 144	Top	89-78	Loss	-110	14 h 54 m	Show
There is a good reason why Northern Colorado has gone Under in 17 of its last 22 games. The Bears have the best defense in the Big Sky Conference. They also play at a very slow tempo. The Bears are a heavy favorite in this matchup. So they certainly aren't going to be rushing shots especially if they built up a solid lead as expected. Northern Arizona also plays at at slower than normal pace. The Lumberjacks are very deliberate when going against an above .500 foe as reflected in the Under winning six of the last seven times they have faced a winning team. The teams met earlier this season in late January. Final score: Northern Colorado 63, Northern Arizona 48. That's a combined 111 points.
03-06-19	Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic	Top	72-69	Loss	-108	17 h 22 m	Show
I don't understand this line. But I'll certainly take advantage of it. Louisiana Tech is great when playing at home as evidenced by a 15-1 mark. However, the Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have lost their last eight road games. This includes a 69-61 loss to Florida Atlantic on Jan. 31. The Owls won that game despite shooting just 36 percent from the floor. Florida Atlantic outrebounded Louisiana Tech, 43-31. Louisiana Tech has lost and failed to cover its last two games, falling to Marshall, 90-79, as seven-point home favorites and losing, 83-76, as 1 1/2-point road favorites against Florida International this past Sunday. The Bulldogs are 7-16 ATS the past 23 times following a loss. Florida Atlantic should come in with a lot of energy and confidence. The Owls last played on Thursday when they defeated North Texas, 60-54, as eight-point road 'dogs pushing their record to 17-12. Kudos to first-year Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May as that victory ensured the Owls of their first winning season since 2010-11. The Owls have won and covered three of their last four games.
03-05-19	Utah State v. Colorado State +7	Top	100-96	Win	100	13 h 3 m	Show
Ambush time for Colorado State. The Rams have covered 11 of their last 15 Mountain West Conference matchups, including three of the last four. They draw Utah State off a huge home win from Saturday against Nevada in what was an intense, bitterly fought game. That victory moved the Aggies into first place in the Mountain West and puts them in a letdown spot here. The Rams have revenge motivation and are playing for playoff seeding in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.
03-04-19	Texas +8.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	51-70	Loss	-108	19 h 56 m	Show
Texas Tech and Kansas State are tied for the Big 12 Conference lead with 12-4 league marks. The Red Raiders are 24-5 overall, while Texas is 8-8 in the Big 12 and 16-13 overall. So record-wise this line looks right. But I see this matchup being much closer than what the oddsmaker anticipates. Texas Tech is 16-1 at home, but has a losing home point spread mark. The Longhorns are 4-10 in games decided by six points or less. Their eight conference defeats have been by a combined 30 points for an average loss of 3.7 points. The Big 12 is a tough conference. Texas is a likley NCAA Tournament team with victories against North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas and a 17-point win against Iowa State in its last game this past Saturday. But the Longhorns can't assume anything. So they will be playing hard, too. Note that the Longhorns steamrolled Iowa State despite not having leading scorer Kerwin Roach, who is suspended. It's a plus if Roach is reinstated for this game, but I'm not counting on that. The Longhorns have covered their last four road games. They also are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have won the past three in the series, including 68-62 on Jan. 12, but their average victory margin in these three matchups is four points.
03-03-19	Marshall +5 v. North Texas	Top	85-82	Win	100	6 h 8 m	Show
Revenge, much better current form and line value. Those three factors heavily line up in Marshall's favor here. The Thunder Herd lost 78-51 to North Texas on the road. That occurred on Feb. 7. The Mean Green haven't won since going 0-5 SU and ATS. They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. Marshall, by contrast, has started to play better winning its past two games. The Thundering Herd upset Louisiana Tech, 90-79, on the road in their last game this past Thursday. Jon Elmore showed why he's one of the best players in Conference USA by scoring 34 points for Marshall in that victory. Marshall is strong offensively averaging 79.9 points a game, which ranks 36th in the country. That's nine more points per game than North Texas scores per game. Defense is Marshall's weakness. North Texas, however, is struggling to score. The Mean Green are averaging a meager 54.4 points in their last five games, failing to reach the 60-point mark in any of their last five games.
03-02-19	Texas-Arlington -3 v. Troy State	Top	79-66	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
Texas Arlington is 10-6 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mavericks are in must-win mode trailing Texas State by two games for the top spot. The Mavericks host Texas State next Saturday in their final regular season game. Texas State is a small road favorite against South Alabama today in a game that tips off five hours later than this one. Texas Arlington beat Texas State in the first meeting this season. So the Mavericks should be going all out here in order to potentially set up a first-place showing matchup next Saturday. Troy is last in the Sun Belt at 4-11. The Trojans couldn't withstand the suspension of forward Jordon Varnado, their leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. Varnado averages 21.5 points a game. Troy's second-leading scorer, Alex Hicks, averages 12.5 points. The Trojans are 1-5 SU and ATS since losing Varnado. Troy hasn't been good in the Sun Belt for a while now going 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 conference games. The Trojans have lost the past two times to the Mavericks, including 86-76 this past Jan. 4.
02-27-19	Marquette v. Villanova UNDER 143.5	Top	61-67	Win	100	12 h 45 m	Show
Expect tremendous intensity in this matchup. Villanova is in revenge and stop-the-pain mode. The Wildcats' shooting has been way off. They need to win with defense. Marquette superstar Markus Howard isn't 100 percent because of a groin injury. There were only 131 points when the team's met the first time this season with Marquette nipping Villanova, 66-65. The teams are even more familiar with each other now.
02-22-19	Harvard -1.5 v. Brown	Top	79-88	Loss	-113	18 h 38 m	Show
Yale and Harvard are the class of the Ivy League. Harvard buried Brown, 68-47, as six-point home chalk on Feb. 2. So laying this short price on the road is more than fair. The Crimson have covered 71 percent of their last 33 Ivy League games. Brown has only covered 17 percent of its past 13 Ivy League contests. Harvard also covered 68 percent of its last 22 away matchups and is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings versus Brown. Only once in their last eight games have the Crimson lost. That was against Cornell three games ago and came the day after the Crimson went three overtimes in a victory against Columbia.
02-20-19	Villanova -5.5 v. Georgetown	Top	73-85	Loss	-108	18 h 21 m	Show
I want Villanova off a rare loss. I also want to fade Georgtown now that they realistically are not going to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament unless it does extremely well in the Big East Conference Tournament. The Hoyas are 1-3 in their last four games and off a 90-75 loss to Seton Hall. Georgetown is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 Big East Conference games. The Hoyas also are 4-12-1 ATS during their past 17 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark. Star guard Phil Booth had a sub-par game against St. John's this past Sunday in a 71-65 road loss. The Wildcats blew an 11-point second half lead against the Red Storm. Jay Wright isn't taking that defeat lightly. Booth should help the Wildcats exploit St. John's youthful backdourt. Booth, the Hoyas' leading scorer at 18.3 points, didn't have a strong game in the first meeting between the two teams on Feb. 3. Yet the Wildcats still won, 77-65, covering as 11 1/2-point home favorites. Villanova has proven itself on the road covering 69 percent of its last 51 away matchups. The Wildcats also have covered the past four times versus Georgetown.
02-19-19	Alabama -123 v. Texas A&M	Top	56-65	Loss	-123	8 h 14 m	Show
Alabama is on a two-game losing skid. The Crimson Tide are coming off a terrible 18-point home loss to Florida. I expect them to be ready here. They have not lost three games all season and are 14-3 ATS following a double-digit home defeat. Alabama could damage its NCAA Tournament chances with a loss here. The Crimson Tide are the better team - ranked 56th in the latest Ken Pom ratings compared to Texas A&M being rated 98th - and have revenge. The Aggies nipped them, 81-80, on a buzzer beater. The Tide were 7 1/2-point home favorites in that matchup, which occurred on Jan. 12. Alabama led for all but four minutes in that game. Texas A&M is 3-9 in the SEC. The Aggies' other two conference victories were against Georgia and Missouri, who have a combined 4-20 SEC record. Texas A&M is just 4-10 ATS at home this season.
02-18-19	Illinois +11 v. Wisconsin	Top	58-64	Win	100	18 h 5 m	Show
Missing 17 of 21 shots from beyond the arc, Illinois lost 72-60 to Wisconsin on Jan. 23. Since then the Illini have gone 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS as their talented but inexperienced freshmen have matured and become more consistent. The Illini are beating good teams during this stretch, too, knocking off Michigan State, Maryland and Ohio State on the road. While Illinois is coming on, Wisconsin is slipping. The Badgers have lost consecutive games to Michigan and Michigan State. No shame in that, but the Badgers are showing signs of fatigue. They are not a deep team either. Wisconsin wins with great defense. Illinois ranks No. 13, though, in forcing turnovers. The Illini average four more points per game than Wisconsin and can keep this one close.
02-16-19	Tennessee v. Kentucky -3	Top	69-86	Win	100	21 h 58 m	Show
I understand the Volunteers have won 19 in a row and are 11-0 in the SEC. But I'm not sold on Tennessee, nor its coach, Rick Barnes. If the Vols win this game, I will be. But I don't see them beating Kentucky on the road. Kentucky's freshmen are starting to mesh. The Wildcats have covered eight of their last nine and are 19-7 ATS the past 26 times going against an opponent with a winning record. The Wildcats will be even more determined to win this game after suffering a 73-71 loss at home to LSU this past Tuesday that ended their 10-game win streak. The Wildcats let a nine-point second-half lead against LSU slip, losing on a tip-in at the buzzer. The Wildcats have the talented shooters to exploit Tennessee's lone real weak spot, their 3-point defense.
02-15-19	Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -1	Top	77-81	Win	100	21 h 44 m	Show
This Horizon League showdown is being shown on ESPNU. It's the biggest game of the season for Wright State and I believe the Raiders will be up for the challenge. The Raiders are home and playing their best ball winning seven of their last eight games while going 5-3 ATS. Wright State is 11-2 at home. Northern Kentucky has a losing record on the road and has been very bad point spread-wise away from home covering only three of its last 12 road matchups. The Norse are 1-8 ATS the past nine times when on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record. Northern Kentucky defeated Wright State, 68-64, as 4 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 11 The Raiders managed to cover despite shooting much worse from the floor than Northern Kentucky, making just three of 15 3-point attempts and shooing seven fewer free throws. Wright State's bench has improved since that defeat. The Raiders also rank 49th in the country in free throw percentage compared to Northern Kentucky, which rates 321st in the nation in free throw accuracy.
02-09-19	St. Mary's +17 v. Gonzaga	Top	46-94	Loss	-110	11 h 36 m	Show
I recall St. Mary's upsetting Gonzaga, 74-71, as 7 1/2-point road 'dogs last season. But while I'm not saying the Gaels can pull a similar upset in Spokane this season, I do believe they can hang in and that this line is inflated based on Gonzaga winning 13 in a row with many of those victories occurring in blowout fashion. The Gaels haven't lost a game in regulation by more than six points since Nov. 21. The Bulldogs are the No. 1 scoring team in the nation. St. Mary's may be down from previous seasons, but the Gaels still are very good. They rank 21st in field goal percentage and surrender fewer than 67 points a game. Gaels' guard Jordan Ford leads the West Coast Conference in scoring at 22.1 points a game.
02-07-19	Hawaii +1 v. Long Beach State	Top	77-70	Win	100	21 h 33 m	Show
I'm usually attracted to the superior team in a pick or underdog spot. That's what we have here with Hawaii against Long Beach State. Hawaii is 4-3 in the Big West Conference. The Warriors are in must-win mode being 2 1/2 games out of first place. They are ranked 189th in the highly respected Ken Pom ratings. Long Beach State is 2-5 in the Big West with five consecutive losses. The 49ers are ranked 37 spots behind Hawaii by Ken Pom. The Warriors are surrendering 15 fewer points per game than the 49ers during the past five games. The two teams just met last Thursday and Hawaii was a 9 1/2-point home favorite. The Warriors shot 41.7 percent from the floor, missed 21 of 28 3-pointers and shot five fewer free throws yet still easily won, 74-57. So what has caused around a 10-point difference in the line? Well Hawaii is leaving the island following a 75-54 home loss to Santa Barbara as 3-point favorites, but that's not nearly worth that many points. The Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more straight home games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 matchups versus a sub .500 opponent. Long Beach State is just 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games against foes with winning records.
02-06-19	Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 142	Top	68-70	Win	100	12 h 10 m	Show
TCU is one of those good home, bad road teams. The Horned Frogs are home here and primed for a strong game epecially defensively. TCU coach Jamie Dixon is really stressing defense following his team's embarrassing 90-64 road loss to Baylor this past Saturday. That was the Horned Frogs' worst loss since Dixon became their coach in 2016. TCU has held its last three home opponents to an average of 59.3 points a game. The Horned Frogs allowed their past two opponents - Baylor and Texas Tech - to make 24 of 49 3-point shots for 49 percent. Both of those games were on the road. Despite that, the Horned Frogs still rank 26th in the nation in 3-point defensive percentage and were leading the Big 12 in 3-point defense prior to those games. Oklahoma State leads the Big 12 in 3-point shooting. But I see the Horned Frogs really clamping down on the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is averaging just 62.7 points in its last four games. The Cowboys, though, rank 64th in defensive field goal percentage. They have slowed down their pace, too, from earlier in the season, which is a strong plus for the Under.
01-29-19	Tennessee v. South Carolina +9	Top	92-70	Loss	-110	17 h 3 m	Show
Tennessee is finding out that being the top-ranked college basketball team in the country carries a huge target. The Volunteers have had some narrow escapes in two of their last three games beating Alabama by just three points as 13-point home favorites and getting past Vanderbilt in overtime as a nine-point road favorite. I don't see the Volunteers being quite so fortunate on the road against a rugged, well-coached South Carolina squad that has been peaking since SEC play began going 5-1. Going back to last season, the Gamecocks are 11-2-1 ATS during their past 14 SEC contests. This is Tennessee's fourth SEC road game. The Volunteers have trailed in all three of their league road matchups. South Carolina is good at forcing turnovers and rebounding. The Gamecocks will be fired-up, too, under fiery Frank Martin. Tennessee is coming off its third-worst turnover game of the season committing 16 in their last game against West Virginia. South Carolina has covered in four of its last five games versus Tennessee.
01-25-19	Butler v. Creighton OVER 153	Top	61-75	Loss	-110	19 h 44 m	Show
Creighton is the 19th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83.9 points a game. Yet the Bluejays were held to 69 points in an 84-69 road loss to Butler during the team's first meeting on Jan. 5. Creighton made just 7 of 27 3-point shots (25.9 percent), was 16-of-24 (66.7 percent) from the foul line and hit 45.1 percent from the floor. On the season, the Bluejays rank fourth in field goal percentage at 50.5 percent, are No. 2 in the nation in 3-point percentage at 43 percent and are 67 percent from the foul line. So I see vast improvement coming from the Bluejays at home in the rematch. Creighton has gone Over in six of its last eight home matchups. Butler ranks 213th in defensive field goal percentage and 190th in 3-point defense. The Bulldogs have played seven consecutive Over the total games. They are averaging 79.6 points in their last three games. Creighton had problems stopping Kamar Baldwin, Butler's leading scorer. He scored 28 points and dished off seven assists against the Bluejays. Since the team's last met, Butler forward Jordan Tucker has come on to average 16.5 points so the Bluejays just can't concentrate on Baldwin. The Bulldogs have been a strong Over team in Big East competiton with the Over cashing 13 of the past 16 times (81 percent) in league play.
01-22-19	Duke v. Pittsburgh +13	Top	79-64	Loss	-105	19 h 25 m	Show
Duke has a Dream Team of freshmen with RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish. But Pittsburgh also has some very good first-year players with Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowens and Au'Diese Toney. Duke is coming off a huge marquee home victory against Virginia this past Saturday. Pittsburgh is treating this as its biggest game of the season. The matchup has been sold out for weeks. Jeff Capel is a big reason why the Panthers are sky-high for this matchup. Capel played four seasons for Mike Krzyzewski and then coached under him for seven years while probably being Duke's top recruiter. Capel was named Pittsburgh's head coach last March. This is the first meeting between Capel and Krzyzewski. Capel knows the Blue Devils better than any opponent. He knows Duke's tendencies and has intimate knowledge of the plays the Blue Devils run. Duke is likely to be missing point guard Tre Jones, who was leading the Blue Devils in assists and was their fourth-leading scorer. He suffered a shoulder injury last week and is not expected to play. The Panthers have covered 76 percent of their lined games under Capel. Pitt is 9-3 ATS in its home games. The Panthers have a strong history of covering spreads versus elite competition going 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times facing opponents with an above .600 winning percentage. I expect this game to be close throughout. But if Duke does build a double-digit lead the backdoor should be open for Pittsburgh because Capel and Krzyzewski are close friends. Krzyzewski would not want to embarrass Capel especially on Capel's home-court.
01-21-19	Nebraska v. Rutgers UNDER 136	Top	69-76	Loss	-109	15 h 57 m	Show
Nebraska gives up just 61.3 points a game. Only 11 teams give up fewer points per game. Rutgers is a far better defensive team than offensive one. The Scarlet Knights rank 67th in scoring defense holding foes to 66.8 points per game. The Scarlet Knights, though, figure to have problems handling the ball. Nebraska leads the Big Ten in steals per game. The Scarlet Knights remain without their leadings scorer, Eugene Omoruyi. He's out with a leg injury. Rutgers knows it can't win shootout games. So expect a slow tempo. That's been the pattern of the past three meetings between these two teams with the average combined score being just 121.6 points.
01-17-19	Oregon v. Arizona UNDER 133.5	Top	59-54	Win	100	11 h 26 m	Show
After three straight Overs, look for Oregon to go Under the total in this matchup. The Ducks are going back to slowing things down following games against racehorses UCLA and USC. Arizona plays at a much more deliberate tempo than the Bruins and Trojans. Both Oregon and Arizona are outstanding defensive teams. Oregon ranks 24th in defensive efficiency and gives up the 35th-fewest points in the nation. The Ducks are without their star shot blocker injured center Bol Bol,but could get big man Kenny Wooten back. The Ducks apply tremendous pressure on the ball ranking No. 1 in the Pac 12 in forcing turnovers. The Wildcats rank 45th in scoring defense holding foes to 66.1 points. Two strong defenses in a game where the tempo should be slow. That spells Under.
01-08-19	Texas A&M v. Kentucky -12.5	Top	74-85	Loss	-108	17 h 24 m	Show
Kentucky is in a kill position mood after getting upset, 77-75, as five-point road favorites against Alabama this past Saturday in its SEC opener. Wildcats coach John Calipari is putting a lot of emphasis on this matchup after that frustrating loss. The Wildcats are unbeaten at home and have won 79 percent of their games under Calipari following a loss, a span of 58 games. Texas A&M is not very good this season. That has become clear in the Aggies' last two games, both home losses. The Aggies lost 73-71 to Arkansas and before that fell to Texas Southern, 88-73, as 16 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games versus a foe with a losing road record.
01-02-19	Boise State -3.5 v. Wyoming	Top	69-55	Win	100	14 h 48 m	Show
Wyoming edged Boise State, 79-78, in overtime last season when it hosted them. Boise State got some revenge when it beat the Cowboys, 95-87, at home in the final regular season game last season. Now the Broncos have a great opportunity to get road revenge as the Cowboys have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among Boise State's banged-up players are Hunter Maldanado and Jake Hendricks, both of whom average double figures in scoring. Madanado is out with a back injury, while Hendricks is deaing with a knee injury. The Cowboys have been one of the worst ATS teams in the nation covering only two of their first 12 lined games. Long-term, the Cowboys are 7-18-1 ATS.
12-19-18	Auburn v. NC State OVER 157	Top	71-78	Loss	-110	9 h 17 m	Show
NC State ranks ninth in the nation in points per game at 88.9. Auburn is 19th averaging 84.8. Neither is going to back down. The pace is going to be fast and up-tempo. That's the way Wolfpack like it and Auburn coach Bruce Pearl has a history of obliging up-tempo teams, especially when he spots weakness. The Wolfpack are not strong in transition defense. Only twice in 10 games has NC State failed to reach 80 points. The Tigers have gone Over in each of their last two games and three of their last four.
12-06-18	Drake -130 v. Wisc-Milwaukee	Top	75-61	Win	100	11 h 39 m	Show
This is a short price to lay to not only get the superior team, but also get them when they are in a better situation even being the road club. Drake is the 191st best team in the country, according to the highly-respected Pomeroy Ratings. UW-Milwaukee is rated 272nd. The Bulldogs ranks 61st in the nation in scoring at more than 81 points a game. That's 12 points higher per game than UWM. Drake has won and covered its past four games. The Bulldogs have beaten Boise State, North Dakota State and Texas State. The Panthers have lost at home to North Dakota and squeaked past LIU Brooklyn in overtime at home. The Bulldogs have been idle since Saturday. The Panthers just returned from having played two games in Ireland, losing in blowout fashion to Stephen F. Austin and Buffalo.
12-04-18	St. Peter's v. Clemson UNDER 136	Top	60-65	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
St. Peter's ranks 318th in the nation in scoring at 66.6. Clemson holds foes to 66 points a game. The last time the Peacocks went up against a major opponent they scored only 49 points versus Auburn. Clemson doesn't push pace like Auburn and other opponents St. Peter's has faced. So tempo should be slow. The Under is 35-15-1 in the Peacocks' past 51 road games for 70 percent!
11-27-18	Southern Illinois -1.5 v. Colorado State	Top	82-67	Win	100	21 h 39 m	Show
Colorado State went 11-21 last season. The Rams are 4-2 this season, but have played a weak schedule. Southern Illinois is far more battled tested having taken on Kentucky, UMass, Buffalo and Tulsa, who the Salukis beat by 10 points at neutral site Las Vegas during their last game. Southern Illinois is the deeper team, has played the tougher schedule, is more experienced and is better defensively. The Salukis give up eight fewer points per game than the Rams. These advantages are displayed in the latest Kenpom ratings, which has Southern Illinois ranked 114th and Colorado State rated 200th.
03-27-18	Western Kentucky -120 v. Utah	Top	64-69	Loss	-120	18 h 44 m	Show
Surprised that Western Kentucky has reached the NIT semifinals? You shouldn't be. The Hilltoppers average nearly 79 points a game, have five solid starters and are 4-1 against Power-5 conference opponents with victories against Purdue, Boston College, Oklahoma State and USC. The Hilltoppers are road tested - defeating USC and Oklahoma State away during this tournament - and played a tougher preseason schedule than Utah, the lone remaining team from what has turned out to be a weak Pac-12 year. Utah has had a much easier NIT draw than Western Kentucky getting Cal Davis, a banged-up LSU team and weak foul-shooting St. Mary's squad that it beat in overtime. The much respected Pomeroy ratings rank Western Kentucky 45th in the country compared to Utah's 57th.
03-25-18	Duke -145 v. Kansas	Top	81-85	Loss	-145	28 h 12 m	Show
I want Duke going for me here. The Blue Devils are the best team, underline the word team, in the country this season. Not only are the Blue Devils a top-12 in the nation scoring and shooting team, but their defense has become elite. The Blue Devils' defense improved since Mike Krzyewski switched to primary zone with a few tweaks a couple of months ago. Since that time, the Blue Devils have ranked in the top-five in the country in defensive efficiency. Kansas needs to shoot very well to beat Duke. I don't see that happening especially given senior point guard Devonte' Graham's shooting woes. Graham has made just 14 of 33 shots from the floor for 33 percent while missing 12 of 17 3-point shots during the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks' defense hasn't been that crisp either. They've allowed 79 and 76 points in their last two games. The Jayhawks were able to get away with beating Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson despite these flaws. They won't be able to get away with Graham's poor shooting and lackluster defense versus Duke. I can see Kansas center Odoka Azubuike having problems and getting into foul trouble dealing with Duke's two low-post threats, Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter. Bagley and Carter are considered to be top-eight picks in the NBA draft with Bagley possibly going as high as No. 2. They've helped Duke lead the nation in offensive rebounding. Duke got its mediocre game out of the way by beating Syracuse, 69-65, on Friday. Despite that non-cover, the Blue Devils are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They also have covered six of the past seven times following an ATS loss. The Blue Devils will find Kansas' zone easier to penetrate than Syracuse's.
03-23-18	West Virginia +5 v. Villanova	Top	78-90	Loss	-105	18 h 5 m	Show
This year's NCAA Tournament has been filled with upsets and extremely close games. I see that happening in this matchup. In most cases you have to go through stages to advance far in the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia reached the Sweet 16 last season. The Mountaineers still have their tremendous, tenacious pressing defense, but their offense is better this season. Jevon Carter is a tremendous all-around player, the kind of guard who can lead a team to the tournament championship. West Virginia averaged more than 80 points a game this season and its defense - both physical and athletic - will make things difficult for Villanova. The Wildcats have been bailed out so far in the tournament by extraordinary 3-point shooting. I don't see that continuing here.
03-22-18	Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada -113	Top	69-68	Loss	-113	13 h 55 m	Show
It's a minor miracle that either of these two teams are still in the NCAA Tournament. Both are legitimate, but fortunate. Nevada, though, is better and the matchup favors the Wolfpack. The Wolfpack are more athletic, have more length across the board and a far more explosive offense. They also are more battle tested as this was a down year in the Missouri Valley Conference and have the better coach with Eric Musselman. Nevada averaged 83 points. That ranked 16th-best in the country and is more than 11 points more per game than Loyola. But a key here is the Wolfpack averaged just 9.6 turnovers per game, which was the fourth-lowest in the country. So Nevada isn't sloppy. Another key is 3-point shooting. Both teams ranked tied for 20th in 3-point shooting percentage. It's a key part of their arsenals. However, Nevada defends the 3-pointer better than the Ramblers ranking 19th in 3-point percentage defense. The Wolfpack have displayed tremendous reslilence in the tournament coming back from a 14-point, second-half deficit to nail an overtime win against Texas and then emerging from 22 points down to stun No. 2 seed Cincinnati. Not to take anything away from the Ramblers, but they faced a pair of very young teams in the tournament, Tennessee and Miami. The Ramblers got past both of these opponents by hitting buzzer-beaters. Nevada is a much more veteran team with five of its top six players either a junior or senior. This is the Wolfpack's easiest game yet in the tournament. The price is right to get involved backing them.
03-21-18	Utah v. St. Mary's -6	Top	67-58	Loss	-106	19 h 46 m	Show
So much for the Pac-12. All the teams from that conference are gone now except Utah. That should tell you something about the strength of the Pac-12 and after tonight I don't see any Pac-12 team standing. Saint Mary's should have made the NCAA Tournament. The Gaels are 18-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to Gonzaga. The question with Saint Mary's isn't talent, but motivation. The Gaels have three key seniors. It's obvious now that the Gaels are out to prove the NCAA Tournament committee wrong by winning the NIT. They buried Southeast Louisiana, 89-45, in their NIT opener. The Gaels got their lackluster performance out of the way in getting past Washington, 85-81, two nights ago. I expect the Gaels to be sharper against Utah, another Pac-12 team. Saint Mary's has covered 12 of the last 17 times when playing a Pac-12 foe. Utah lives and die with its perimeter shooting especially from 3-point range. Saint Mary's ranks 14th in the country in scoring defense and 22nd in 3-point percentage defense. Utah is hurt by a rule change in the NIT that stretches the distance to score on a 3-point shot. The Gaels, led by center Jock Landale, are the most accurate shooting team in the nation. I don't see the Utes being able to stay with them.
03-18-18	Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5	Top	71-94	Win	100	18 h 36 m	Show
Great job by Marshall upsetting Wichita State on Friday. That was the Thundering Herd's first NCAA Tournament victory. They are not going to get their second tournament win here, though. Not only are the Thundering Herd in a tough spot to get ready for this matchup following such a great win, but they have serious matchup problems against West Virginia. The Mountaineers hold huge edges athletically and in style of play with their pressure defense and strong senior backcourt of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles. Unlike Marshall, West Virginia is tournament tested, too, having reached the Sweet 16 last March where they nearly took out Gonzaga. Not only can Carter, who was tremendous in the Mountaineers' first-round victory against Murray State and its star, Jonathan Stark, slow down Marshall's top scoring threat, Jon Elmore, but Sagaba Konate gives West Virginia a strong inside defensive presence. The Mountaineers finished sixth in the nation in shot block percentage. West Virginia is at its best against non-conference opponents not familar with the Mountaineers' full-court, all-out pressing. The Big 12 was tough again this season and its coaches know West Virginia. The conference also had exception guard play. West Virginia is stepping way down here. I see a kill spot here.
03-17-18	Seton Hall +4.5 v. Kansas	Top	79-83	Win	100	14 h 4 m	Show
Seton Hall has four excellent senior starters, including one of the top rebounders in the country in Angel Delgado, plus an excellent starting sophomore guard, Myles Powell. These group of seniors are playing in the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive year. They earned their first Big Dance victory beating North Carolina State on Thursday to push their unbeaten point-streak to six in a row. They also got the moneky off their back in breaking through with an NCAA Tournament victory. This isn't a great Kansas team. The Jayhawks struggled against Ivy League team Penn before closing out the Quakers with a 14-6 run. That won't happen against tournament-tested Seton Hall. One of the Pirates' strong points is their offensive rebound. One of Kansas' weakness is giving up offensive rebounds where it ranked 280th in the country. The taller Priates can limit Kansas' rebounding and thus blunt the Jayhawks' desire to play up-tempo and their aggressive in-transition style.
03-16-18	College of Charleston +9.5 v. Auburn	Top	58-62	Win	100	18 h 26 m	Show
Auburn couldn't get straighten out for the SEC Conference Tournament and I don't see the Tigers getting a much needed quick fix in this opening round NCAA Tournament game either. The Tigers are 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They were blasted by Alabama, 81-63, during the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. It's clear now that Auburn way overachieved earlier in the season. This certainly is the wrong time to be playing your worst ball. The College of Charleston is just the opposite. The Cougars are riding tremendous mometum winning 14 of their last 15 games. Their lone defeat during this span occurred in overtime. It wouldn't shock me at all to see the Cougars win this game outright.
03-15-18	Montana v. Michigan -10	Top	47-61	Win	100	11 h 46 m	Show
Michigan's John Beilein is my favorite college basketball coach now that Bo Ryan has retired. His Wolverines have tournament experience and plenty of rest having been idle for 10 days following winning the Big 10 Conference Tournament. The Wolverines achieved that in grand style winning four games in four days culminated by victories against Michigan State and Purdue during the last two days. Michigan's averaging winning margin against those two powerhouses was 10 points. Montana certainly isn't in the class of Purdue and Michigan State. The Grizzlies play in Big Sky Conference. They last participated in the NCAA Tournament in 2013. The last time they won a game in the Big Dance was 2006. The Grizzlies are 3-11 the last 14 times they've played Big 10 teams and are 1-5 ATS during their past six neutral site games. Michigan, by contrast, is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Wolverines enter tournament play riding a nine-game win streak. They have the ninth-best defense in the country, have held seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 67 points, rank 25th in offensive rebounding and are No. 2 in turnover percentage. They are far, far superior to Montana. Given the situational elements, the Wolverines should have no problem winning by double-digits.
03-13-18	Hampton +22.5 v. Notre Dame	Top	63-84	Win	100	14 h 3 m	Show
It's spring break and snowing on the Notre Dame campus. So it's hard to imagine the Irish basketball players getting up for this first-round NIT matchup knowing they were the final school left out of the NCAA Tournament, a tournament they should have been selected to. This what Notre Dame coach Mike Brey was quoted as saying on Sunday when word came out that the Irish were not picked for the NCAA Tournament: "We've had all kinds of things happen and on the most important day, it was a heartbreaking day. It's a tough one to swallow." I can't see Notre Dame being motivated at all. But is Hampton good enough to hang around? I believe so especially given this huge spread. The Pirates were the best team in the MEAC this season. They have played in post-season tournaments the past four years, including the NCAA Tournament in 2015 and 2016. Hampton has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Pirates have a pair of very good guards in Jermaine Marrow and Malique Trent-Street. The Pirates ranked 55th in the nation in scoring at 79.3 points per game. Notre Dame, which has been inconsistent offensively, averages 75 points. The Pirates are a strong rebounding team - tied for 12th in the nation - and have depth with 11 players averaging at least 11 minutes per game. This is important if the spread comes into question late in the game when Notre Dame is playing its bench players. Hampon is road-tested having covered 12 of its last 16 away contests. The Pirates rank among the top 56 teams in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. So there are a lot of checkmarks as to why Hampton can hang with a disinterested Notre Dame team that isn't likely to have much of a crowd.
03-10-18	San Diego State -4 v. New Mexico	Top	82-75	Win	100	5 h 12 m	Show
San Diego State is on a huge roll and I'm going to get behind the Aztecs here. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games since suspended senior leader Malik Pope returned to the team. All together, the Aztecs have won eight in a row. They've covered the past six times against above .500 opponents. New Mexico is in a bad situational spot having had to play the late game last night. Now they have to play around 15 hours later with legs that figure to be tired. San Diego State should be the much fresher team since it played earlier and only had one of its starters go past the 29-minute mark. The Aztecs are a bad matchup, too, for New Mexico because they like to slow things down and don't turn the ball over. The Lobos thrive on comitting turnovers. That's not likely to happen here.
03-03-18	UC-Davis v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 132	Top	90-84	Loss	-115	18 h 10 m	Show
There were just 117 points scored when these teams last met back in January with UC Davis winning, 64-53. The Aggies had their leading scorer and rebounder, Chima Moneke, for that game. He scored 20 points in that game and averages 18.4 points on the season. However, Moneke is suspended and won't play here. At stake in this matchup is the Big West Conference title. So I expect the intensity and defensive pressure to be as strong as it has been all season. UC Davis ranks 64th defensively. Irvine is even better defensively ranking 42nd and and fourth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. The Anteaters won't have to deal with Moneke either. Cal Irvine plays at a slow pace, too, which is an added plus for the Under. The Under has cashed in 17 of the Anteaters' last 22 games. This series has an Under history, too, with four of the last five going below the total. The Under has cashed six of the past seven times the teams have met at Irvine.
02-28-18	Nevada -3 v. UNLV	Top	101-75	Win	100	21 h 1 m	Show
Nevada is much the better team, has a far superior coach and this is the Wolf Pack's Revenge Game of the Year. UNLV handed Nevada its lone home loss of the season, winning 86-78 three weeks ago. That loss came in front of Nevada's eighth-largest crowd in Lawlor Events Center history. The Wolf Pack were missing their top scorer, Caleb Martin. He was out with a foot sprain. Nevada didn't play well, though. and the Rebels shot a blistering 50.8 percent from the floor. Credit to UNLV because it did play extremely well in that game. This is a bitter, bitter rivalry. UNLV, a classless program, did a lot of trash talking during and following that win. The Wolf Pack haven't forgotten. They've been pointing to this matchup ever since. Martin is back and will play. Reno hasn't been swept in a season series by the Rebels since 2012-13, which was its first year in the Mountain West Conference. UNLV has a size advantage on the Wolf Pack. But Nevada can take advantage of UNLV's weak transition defense. Nevada has won the Mountain West Conference title already, but the Wolf Pack will be focused and highly motivated for this game. Nevada coach Eric Musselman said he won't be resting anybody that his team will be going all out. Musselman is a far better coach than UNLV's Marvin Menzies. UNLV has lost and failed to cover its last three games, including losing to Fresno State, 77-64, as a two-point favorite during its last home game. The Rebels don't have the home attendance they used to have because of the decline in their program. They have covered only two of their last 10 home contests.
02-21-18	San Diego State v. Air Force +8.5	Top	67-56	Loss	-105	20 h 53 m	Show
In terms of straight-up record, Air Force is a bottom-three Mountain West Conference team. Point spread-wise, though, the Falcons are very strong. They have covered in nine of their last 12 league games and are 7-1 ATS at home this season. This coincides with San Diego State being a bad road team. The Aztecs are a middle-of-the-pack Mountain West team that is strong at home, weak on the road where they are 1-6 in conference play. This includes losses during their past five away matchups. San Diego State enters this matchup fat and happy after burying UNLV, 94-56, at home this past Saturday. That was the Aztecs' most lopsided victory against the Rebels in the 69-game history of the series. Now the Aztecs draw ninth place Air Force and last place San Jose State. So this doesn't shape up as a challenging week for them. The Falcons are going to be the more motivated team. They have revenge for an embarrassing 81-50 road loss to San Diego State from 18 days ago. Air Force only was able to shoot nine free throws in that game. Air Force upset New Mexico, 100-92, in its last home contest. Air Force has been on the road its past two games losing to UNLV and Boise State. Now the Falcons are back home. They are 16-5-1 ATS following a loss. The Falcons have covered four of the last five times against San Diego State at home, including winning straight-up last season, 60-57, as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. They are 9-2 (82%) ATS the past 11 times versus San Diego State.
02-19-18	Miami-FL v. Notre Dame UNDER 140	Top	77-74	Loss	-110	14 h 28 m	Show
Minus star guard Bruce Brown Jr., Miiami has averaged only 52.5 points during its last two games. The Hurricanes are going to have to be patient and hit their shots if they want to pull an upset because Notre Dame has committed the fewest fouls in the country and fewest fouls per game. Notre Dame, though, has its own key injury as Bonzie Colson remains out. Matt Ferrell has been playing great, but can't be expected to score a career-high 37 points like he did in Notre Dame's last game, a victory against Boston College. The Irish play at a slow tempo, which is good for the Under, and Miami has the fourth-ranked defense in the ACC giving up 66 points per game. The Hurricanes also rank in the top-30 in the country in 3-point defense.
02-15-18	NC-Greensboro v. The Citadel +10.5	Top	82-66	Loss	-106	13 h 37 m	Show
The Citadel has covered seven of its last nine games. The Bulldogs have posted upsets of Wofford and Furman and lost to East Tennessee State, the first place team in the Southern Conference, by just two points as a 15-point 'dog during their last three home games. Now The Citadel is another big home 'dog. This time to UNC Greensboro, which is in a dangerous situational spot. The Spartans just beat East Tennessee State at home on Monday in a huge game and has a more challenging road game against Mercer on Saturday. The Spartans have failed to cover in their last four games against the Bulldogs.
02-08-18	Duke -112 v. North Carolina	Top	78-82	Loss	-112	11 h 46 m	Show
Duke may have got caught peeking ahead to this game after losing 81-77 to St. John's in its last game this past Saturday. Expect the Blue Devils to be fully focused. They also are the better team. Duke has covered the past four times following a loss. The Blue Devils have defeated the Tar Heels in six of the last eight meetings. The Blue Devils certainly are road tested going 10-3-1 ATS during their past 14 road outings. Duke is 4-1, too, versus ranked teams this season. Duke leads the nation in scoring averaging nearly 90 points a game. North Carolina is 1-3 in its last four games giving up more than 80 points in each of its losses during this span. Duke can hurt the Tar Heels from long-distance as North Carolina ranks 324th in 3-point defense.
02-07-18	CS-Northridge v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 131.5	Top	56-77	Loss	-110	19 h 15 m	Show
Cal State Northridge is a huge Under team. The Matadors are 16-4-1 to the Under in their last 21 games, including 7-0 to the under in their last seven Big West Conference games. Now the Matadors go against UC Irvine, which has the No. 1 defense in the conference. Neither team is very strong offensively ranking among the bottom 100 in offensive efficiency. There were 125 points scored in the first game between the two teams. Irvine won, 71-54, by shooting 48.3 percent from the floor. The Anteaters shoot 44.1 percent from the field so they don't figure to be as hot this time around.
02-01-18	San Francisco v. St. Mary's UNDER 140.5	Top	43-79	Win	100	18 h 16 m	Show
St. Mary's beat San Francisco in its two meetings last season winning 66-46 at home for a total of 112 points and 63-52 on the road for a combined 115 points. Things shouldn't be any different in this matchup, certainly not to the extent of where this total opened. San Francisco ranks 74th defensively holding foes to 67.9 points a game. The Dons are much worse offensively ranking 281st averaging 69.4 points per game and ranking 306th in field goal percentage at 41.8. San Francisco does not play at a fast tempo and figures to really struggle at this tough venue. The Dons are going to have problems getting any easy baskets with St. Mary's 7-foot star Jock Landale patrolling the middle. The Gaels lead the nation in defensive rebounding. St. Mary's rates 28th-best in the country in defensive scoring holding foes to 65.2 points a game. The Gaels have won 16 in a row. They are going to control tempo here - and that tempo is not going to be fast. The Geals play at an extremely slow and deliberate pace. That pace is perfect when protecting a big lead, which the Gaels should build.
01-29-18	Lehigh v. Holy Cross OVER 139	Top	71-67	Loss	-110	19 h 17 m	Show
There were 160 points scored when the teams met earlier this season with Lehigh winning, 83-77. Lehigh averages 76.2 points per game and plays terrible defense. The Mountain Hawks surrender 79.4 points per game, which ranks 319th in the country. So it's no surprise the Over has cashed 69 percent of the time during Lehigh's past 13 Patriot League games. The Over also has won in five of Lehigh's last six road contests. Holy Cross is coming off a season-high 85-point game.
01-27-18	Rutgers +8.5 v. Penn State	Top	43-60	Loss	-105	14 h 19 m	Show
Rutgers is the wrong team to be laying a big number against especially in a monster letdown spot. That's the position Penn State is in today. The Nittany Lions are off their biggest win of the season, stunning 13th-ranked Ohio State on the road, 82-79, this past Thursday night on a long 3-pointer by Tony Carr at the buzzer. Now, less than two days later, the Nittany Lions face the No. 6 ranked defense in the nation. Rutgers is weak offensively. But the Scarlet Knights give up the sixth-fewest points per game in the country and rank 12th in defensive field goal percentage. They have allowed 62.1 points per game during their last six games, which is their season average. Rutgers upset Penn State as an 8-point road 'dog last season and are in great position to repeat.
01-24-18	Mercer v. East Tennessee State UNDER 134	Top	75-84	Loss	-110	13 h 7 m	Show
The Mercer Bears lost their top scorer, Ria'n Holland, two games ago to a wrist injury. They played their first game without him this past Saturday and lost 70-66 in overtime to NC Greensboro. The Bears scored 55 points in regulation No Mercer player scored more than 11 points in that game. The Bears are really hurting on the offensive end without Holland, who is leading the team in scoring at 19 points a game. The next highest scorer for Mercer averages 10.6 points per game. The Under has cashed 11 of the last 13 times Mercer has lost during its previous game. East Tennessee State ranks in the top-25 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Buccaneers have held heir last four opponents to an average of 54.2 points a game.
01-19-18	Indiana +15.5 v. Michigan State	Top	57-85	Loss	-108	17 h 31 m	Show
There are a lot of peaks and valleys during the long college basketball season. Right now Indiana is playing well and Michigan State isn't. The Hoosiers have won five of their last six, including their last three. Indiana is playing tremendous defense, getting strong play from Juwan Morgan and rebounding production from its guards. Michigan State would be 0-3 in its last three games if not for a home overtime victory against Rutgers. The Spartans are 1-6 ATS the past seven times playing an above .500 opponent. They are going to look to run more being at home. Indiana, though, ranks No. 2 in the Big Ten in steals and turnover margin at plus 3.7. Michigan State, by contrast, ranks near the bottom in turnover margin at minus 3.2. The Hooisers have covered the past five times they've met opponents with a winning percentage above .600. They have stepped up their play enough where they can be trusted to hang in on the road against the Spartans especially taking this big of a number.
01-17-18	Fresno State v. San Diego State -7	Top	77-73	Loss	-105	21 h 35 m	Show
San Diego State is the top defensive team in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs are 7-1 at home and have revenge for a home loss to Fresno State last season. Fresno State could be missing guards Jaron Hopkins and Jahmel Taylor. They are the third and fourth leading scorers on the Bulldogs. Taylor ranks fifth in the Mountain West in 3-point shooting percentage. Neither player traveled with the team on Tuesday because they are not technically enrolled in school. There's the possibility this problem may not get straighten out before tip-off. San Diego State is at its best against smaller, perimeter-shooting based teams such as Fresno State. So the loss of two key guards really would hurt the Bulldogs. Fresno State has failed to cover in six of its last seven Mountain West Conference matchups.
01-13-18	Florida International v. UTEP OVER 137	Top	68-72	Win	100	11 h 19 m	Show
These two teams have gone Over during their past eight meetings. Look for that tend to continue today. UTEP is giving up an average of 81.6 points during its last three games. Florida International is playing at a fast pace this season. The Over is 15-6-1 in the Panthers' last 22 games.
01-09-18	Ball State v. Ohio -1	Top	75-68	Loss	-110	13 h 38 m	Show
Ohio is 7-1 at home this season and catches Ball State traveling out of Indiana for the first time since before Thanksgiving. Often times a team that had a long winning streak just end doesn't play well in their next game. Ball State is in that position. The Cardinals had their nine-game win streak snapped this past Saturday losing by 20 points to Buffalo at home. Buffalo exposed the Cardinals' inconsistent perimeter game and lack of size. Ohio can do the same. The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road contests after playing three or more home games in a row. Ball State isn't expected to have starting guard Jontrell Walker either. He was supsended indefinitely on Saturday after being charged with domestic battery.
01-09-18	Georgetown +7.5 v. St. John's	Top	69-66	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
I liked and respected Chris Mullin as a basketball player. But I don't think much of his coaching abilities. And I don't believe his St. John's team is good enough to be laying this many points to Georgetown. The Red Storm have yet to win a Big East game going 0-4. They are second-to-last in the conference in rebounding differential and have a weak perimeter defense. Georgetown averages nearly 81 points. St. John's averages 71.8 points, last in the conference. St. John's continues to be without injured Marcus LoVett and it has shown in bad home losses to DePaul and Providence. The Hoyas have covered all three of their lined road games this season. The line is high because the Hoyas are coming off a 90-66 home loss to Creighton. The good news, though, about that loss was that Georgetown's two best players, Jessie Govan and Markus Derrickson, played reduced mintues. Both should be fresh and fired-up for this matchup.
01-03-18	East Carolina v. South Florida UNDER 131.5	Top	67-65	Loss	-110	14 h 3 m	Show
Yes, this is a low total. But it's not low enough given how bad these teams are offensively. East Carolina ranks 332nd in scoring averaging 65.6 points. South Florida is even worse averaging 63.8 points. What makes this worthy of an Under play is not just these team's lack of scoring, but tempo. Each team plays a slow-paced game and commits a lot of turnovers. Both are much stronger on defense than they are on offense. South Florida is even more defensive-minded at home where the Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times.
12-30-17	Vanderbilt v. Florida UNDER 146.5	Top	74-81	Loss	-115	12 h 58 m	Show
Maybe because Vanderbilt went into Christmas break hot averaging 86.5 points in its last two games. But this total is too high given the quality of Florida's defense and recent history between these two teams. The average combined total during the past three meetings in regulation is 131.3 points.The Gators should be extremely motivated to stop the Commodores, too, in a triple revenge spot. Despite their recent hot shooting, Vanderbilt ranks 312th in shooting percentage at 41.1. The Under has cashed in 15 of Vanderbilt's last 18 road games. Florida has gone Under in its last five games. Neither team has played in more than a week so their shooting figures to be rusty, also.
12-28-17	San Francisco v. San Diego UNDER 131	Top	63-73	Loss	-110	16 h 14 m	Show
I always think defense when San Diego is involved. The Toreros are No. 1 in 3-point defense, rank 12th in fewest points allowed per game and are eighth in defensive field goal percentage. San Francisco is improved defensively allowing 66.3 points a game and rank in the top 65 in defensive efficiency. Neither offense is very good. The intensity should be up as this is a West Coast Conference matchup. The Under has won in 12 of San Francisco's last 16 WCC games. The Under has cashed in 11 of San Diego's past 13 conference games. So I see this total as opening too high. The Under should be good all the way to 125.
12-13-17	Arkansas-Little Rock v. Bradley UNDER 130.5	Top	46-86	Loss	-110	16 h 28 m	Show
My first look is Under when I study teams from the Missouri Valley Conference. With Bradley hosting this opponent, Little Rock, Under strongly jumps out. Bradley is strong defensively and neither team has much of a scoring attack. Both are half-court oriented, too, so the tempo should be slow. All four of Bradley's lined home games this season have gone Under, while LIttle Rock has gone Under in eight of its last nine road games.
12-12-17	Columbia +11.5 v. Boston College	Top	66-81	Loss	-110	17 h 48 m	Show
Boston College is in a huge letdown spot and Columbia is far more competitve than its 1-9 record might indicate. The Eagles took down then No. 1 ranked Duke, 89-84, this past Saturday as 15-point home 'dogs behind a rare sellout crowd. The Eagles had a week to prepare for that game. They've had two days to get down from the skies to play this game. I see Boston College being very flat here and taking Columbia lightly. That would be a mistake. Boston College isn't that good. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games even with that victory against Duke. BC has lost to Texas Tech, Nebraska and Providence by a combined 40 points. This also will be the second game the Eagles won't have Deontae Hawkins, their top rebounder and third-leading scorer. He's out with a knee injury. Columbia has had seven of its nine losses come by 10 points or fewer, including a four-point overtime loss to Connecticut. Another defeat was by 15 points to top-ranked Villanova. The Lions are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games when taking on a home team with a winning percentage better than .600.
11-21-17	Davidson v. Nevada OVER 160.5	Top	68-81	Loss	-110	21 h 16 m	Show
Not only are these two outstanding 3-point shooting teams, but neither team forces many turnovers. Davidson has only committed just seven turnovers in its two games. The Wildcats lead the nation in 3-point percentage and in scoring at 109 points per game. Nevada is shooting 43 percent from 3-point range and can take advantage of Davidson's lack of height. The Wolf Pack have firepower from all of their starters. They are averaging 88 points in two home games. This game is going to be all about offense and the total isn't high enough to reflect that.
11-14-17	Lipscomb +14.5 v. Alabama	Top	64-86	Loss	-110	13 h 50 m	Show
Lipscomb isn't being given enough credit here. The Bison is tough. Lipscomb has mde good progress under coach Casey Alexander. The team went 20-13 last season, finishing second in the Atlantic Sun and have nine of its top 10 returning scorers back. Rob Marberry and Garrison Mathews are excellent players for Lipscomb. Mathews is averaging 31 points in two games this season. The team ranked ninth nationally in scoring last season and has improved its defense. Alabama is nicked up and faces the distraction of playing in its first home game of the season. This is going to be a far closer game than the oddsmaker envisioned with this spread.
11-10-17	Texas A&M v. West Virginia -6	Top	88-65	Loss	-115	11 h 43 m	Show
West Virginia is one of the best teams in the country. The Mountaineers won 28 games last season reaching the Sweet 16. West Virginia defeated five ranked teams, including second-ranked Kansas. Texas A&M finished 16-15 last season and didn't play in a postseason tournament. The Aggies are projected to be much improved this season even though they will be breaking in four new starters. The Aggies are young and not familiar with each other at this beginning stage. This is a rough way for the Aggies to begin the season. The Aggies also are going to be without Robert Williams, their best player, and point guard JJ Caldwell. Both are suspended. The Aggies are going to have problems with West Virginia's unique press especially so without their point guard, this being the first game and being unfamiliar with the Mountaineers.
04-03-17	North Carolina -125 v. Gonzaga	Top	71-65	Win	100	20 h 2 m	Show
I predicted the Tar Heels would win the national title and I'm certainly not backing down now. This isn't a fade on Gonzaga, but a play on North Carolina. Both teams have impressive talent and similar offensive skills. The Tar Heels hold the experience edge and rebounding advantage. Rebounding has been a weakness at times for the Zags this season. No team gets more offensive rebounds than North Carolina. Roy Williams has been to six NCAA championship games. This is Mark Few's first. That can't be underestimated. The last time a West Coast team won the NCAA title was Arizona 20 years ago. The last program to win a championship during its first tile game appearance was Connecticut in 1999. The Zags are 0-7 versus No. 1 seeds losing by an averaging of 14.4 points. The Tar Heels also played in a far tougher conference and also had to go through a tougher NCAA Tournament pairing than Gonzaga.
04-01-17	Oregon v. North Carolina -4.5	Top	76-77	Loss	-115	45 h 2 m	Show
Oregon has been riding a lot of momentum. But North Carolina has a height and talent edge. The week layoff takes away Oregon's momentum, too. So I'm going with the Tar Heels. North Carolina has far more Big Dance experience than Oregon. The Tar Heels nearly won the NCAA Tournament last season losing on late basket in the title game. Oregon's last Final Four NCAA Tourney experience came in 1939. This is the matchup where the Ducks are really going to miss Chris Boucher, out for the season after sustaining a knee injury during a semifinal game in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. Boucher's absence leaves Jordan Bell as the lone quality big man the Ducks have. Bell has had an outstanding NCAA Tournament, but he's not going to be able to hold off the Tar Heels on the boards. North Carolina has the best rebound differential of any team since Michigan State in 2001 at plus 13. No major conference team has come close since then of having that big of a difference on the boards. The Ducks have advanced this far in the tournament by outrebounding each of their opponents. That's not going to happen here.
03-28-17	TCU -2.5 v. UCF	Top	68-53	Win	100	21 h 58 m	Show
TCU played a more difficult schedule that Central Florida, carries a higher RPI ranking, is playing its best ball and I trust Jamie Dixon and the Horned Frogs' passing ability to dent the Knights' outstanding defense. TCU is an excellent passing team and has a backcourt edge. I really like its ball movement. The Horned Frogs averaged 17 assists per game. Dixon has had ample practice and preparation time to combat the freak presence of ace defender 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall. The Horned Frogs can create good matchups based on their passing ability. Fall has to deal with fatigue never having played this many games before. I just don't believe he'll be as big a factor as perceived and Central Florida doesn't have enough offense to compensate if its defense isn't playing at a high level.
03-26-17	South Carolina +3.5 v. Florida	Top	77-70	Win	100	9 h 10 m	Show
This game isn't going to be pretty. It's going to be an intense, grind-out, defensive matchup between two SEC foes who know each other well having split their two games this season. So I want South Carolina's defense, senior star guard Sindarius Thornwell and the points going for me. The Gamecocks ranked fifth nationally in turnovers forced per game. They've continued their outstanding defense in the tournament. Thornwell was the SEC Player of the Year and he hasn't disappointed in the Big Dance stepping up even more to average 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals while also making 10 of 22 3-pointers. He'll be the best player on the court. South Carolina displayed its defensive dominance in taking down Baylor, 70-50, on Friday holding the Bears to 30.4 percent from the floor. Florida had a much tougher game on Friday sneaking past Wisconsin in overtime, 84-83, on a 3-point buzzer-beater by Chris Chiozza. The Gators blew a late 12-point lead and it remains open to discussion how much energy that game took out of them both physically and mentally. The short turnaround is a major advantage for South Carolina.
03-25-17	Xavier v. Gonzaga -7.5	Top	59-83	Win	100	14 h 41 m	Show
Xavier is on a surprisingly great run. Gonzaga has yet to play its "A" game in the NCAA Tournament. The due factor is going to kick in here. Look for the Bulldogs to roll past Xavier by double-digits. The 11th-seeded Musketeers kept their miracle of winning the NCAA Tournament alive by closing on a 9-0 run to steal a 73-71 win from second-seed Arizona Thursday. Xavier and LSU of 1987 are the only teams in tournament history to take out three top six seeds during their first three games. That takes a big toll, though. And this is a quick turnaround. It has been a great run for Xavier. Much props to the Musketeers, but I see their season ending here. The team has too many imperfections, a size disadvantage with just one starter taller than 6-foot-6 and a key injury that will hurt them here with starting point guard Edmond Sumner missing after being lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in late January. Standout wing Trevon Bluiett isn't 100 percent either from an ankle injury. Critics of Gonzaga said the Bulldogs couldn't handle West Virginia's pressure defense. Gonzaga did. Now the Bulldogs face Xavier's zone defenses. They'll be ready for that, too, with a necessary inside/outside game that ranked No. 2 in the country in field goal percentage and the 3-point accuracy to rank 68th in 3-point percentage.
03-24-17	UCLA v. Kentucky +1	Top	75-86	Win	100	16 h 31 m	Show
Youth will be served here and I side with Kentucky's talent over UCLA. Lonzo Ball has had to face a lot of distractions due in large part to his big-mouthed dad. Ball is a great talent, but Kentucky also has great talent in its backcourt - and more depth there. Much is being mentioned about the Bruins beating the Wildcats, 97-92, at Rupp Arena back in early December. That was an impressive victory for UCLA. It ended the Wildcats' 42-game home win streak. The Bruins also shot 53 percent from the floor while the Wildcats made just 41 percent of their field goals, which was a season-low at the time. Kentucky isn't going to shoot that bad again and the Bruins aren't going to be that hot again. The Wildcats have been playing outstanding defense holding eight of their last nine opponents to 70 or less points. Opponents have shot under 40 percent during this span against Kentucky. It's a big advantage for the Wildcats - even though they lost - to have played UCLA because now they are fully aware of how fast the Bruins' ball movement is. They won't be taken by surprise not to mention they have a huge revenge factor. The Wildcats are the more physical team. They've yet to play a strong game in the Tournament so far. I say that comes here.
03-23-17	Purdue v. Kansas -5	Top	66-98	Win	100	62 h 56 m	Show
Losing in their opening game of the Big 12 Conference Tournament is the best thing that happened to Kansas. That was two weeks ago and extra rest and motivation by that early exit have propelled the Jayhawks to peak at just the right time. Kansas already is arguably the best team in the country and the Jayhawks have played extremely well in the NCAA Tournament blowing by UC-Davis and defeating Michigan State by 20 points. That pushed the Jayhawks' ATS mark to 6-1 when laying points in the NCAA Tourney. Now the Jayhawks get another Big Ten team, Purdue. The Boilermakers lack the Spartans Big Dance Sweet 16 pedigree and while their defense is solid, it ranks among the bottom in steals and forcing turnovers. Kansas has the superior offense and it's in full throttle. The Jayhawks are averaging 87 points during their last five games. The Boilermakers' backcourt can't match Kansas' guard trio of Frank Mason III, Josh Jackson and Devonte' Graham. Those three are averaging a combined 50 points per game. Mason is especially rolling scoring 20 or more points in eight of his last nine games. Technically this is a netural site game being played at Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo. The reality is that it's almost a home game for Kansas being just 35 miles east of Lawrence, home of the Jayhawks. Kansas is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 neutral site games, too, while Purdue is 2-5 ATS the past seven times.
03-21-17	Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss -5	Top	74-66	Loss	-110	20 h 34 m	Show
Georgia Tech isn't the same team on the road. The Yellow Jackets are 2-10 away from home. Yes, that's right. Georgia Tech has exactly two road victories. Mississippi has covered six of its last seven home games. The Rebels have had to play their first two NIT games on the road. They are coming off an 85-80 victory against heavyweight Syracuse, while Georgia Tech has had the benefit of playing its first two NIT games at home beating disjointed Indiana - which just fired its coach - and lightly regarded Belmont. It's not just having home-court. That's accounted for in the line. I like the way Mississippi is peaking. The Rebels ended the regular season defeating South Carolina, which has reached the Sweet 16. They followed that with a victory against Missouri in the SEC Tournament, a one-point loss to Arkansas and then road wins against Monmouth and Syracuse in the NIT. The Rebels are getting outstanding guard play from Terence Davis and Deandre Burnett. The two combined for 49 points against Syracuse, including hitting 11 3-pointers in burning the Orange's fabled zone defense. This doesn't bode well for Georgia Tech, which relies on defense to win. Davis has been hot for a while averaging 18.3 points during his last 11 games. Ole Miss also has Sebastian Saiz. He led the SEC in rebounding, ranking fifth in the nation. He's shot only 34 percent from the floor, though, during his past four games. He's better than a 46 percent shooter on the season. So he's due to play better giving the Rebels an inside-outside game.
03-19-17	Rhode Island v. Oregon UNDER 140	Top	72-75	Loss	-105	15 h 27 m	Show
First off the numbers are there for both teams. Rhode Island ranks 33rd defensively giving up 65.1 points a game. The Rams rank No. 2 in blocked shots and No. 3 in defending against 3-pointers. They are 26th in defensive field goal percentage. They also won't have to worry about Chris Boucher, the Ducks' third-leading scorer out with a torn ACL. Oregon also surrenders just 65 points per game. The Ducks led the nation in blocked shots while ranking 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 25th in 3-point defense. Numbers are numbers. They also have to fit the matchup for them to work. That's the case here. Rhode Island isn't skilled enough offensively to take the attack to Oregon. The Rams are merely an average offensive team ranking 109th in 2-point shots, 239th in 3-pointers and 287th in free throw percentage. Oregon is too strong defensively to give the Rams any crack at the basket via fastbreak, or by not taking care of the basketball. So the Rams are going to have to create their own openings and good shots. That's not their strength. They also have a short bench. So expect the Rams to be very methodical here taking their time in setting up their shots. What the Rams do is play with all-out effort. They are well-coached under Danny Hurley with a fundamentally sound defense and underrated size. Boucher is a major loss for Oregon. He was the Ducks' third-leading scorer, No. 2 rebounder and top shot blocker. However, his replacement, Kavell Bigby-Williams, is 6-foot-11 and a good shot-blocker and rebounder. So the Ducks' loss is more on offense than defense. Another plus for the under.
03-18-17	Northwestern v. Gonzaga -10.5	Top	73-79	Loss	-112	28 h 46 m	Show
Northwestern was lucky to escape Vanderbilt in its first round NCAA Tournament game Thursday. The Wildcats are NCAA Tourney novices. This also is their fifth game in 10 days.They are not good enough, nor ready to step up to face an opponent this good. Gonzaga could be the best team in the country and are far more tournament tested. I find this spread short as I see the Bulldogs burying Northwestern. While Northwestern is on Cloud Nine after getting past the Commodores, Gonzaga is in a kill-mood. The Bulldogs defeated South Dakota State by 20 points in their opening Big Dance game nearly covering a 23-point spread despite a flat performance. Bulldogs coach Mark Few was not happy with his team shooting less than 40 percent from the floor, missing 10 of 18 fgree throws and committing more turnovers than assists. Look for guard Nigel Williams-Goss and the rest of the Bulldogs to play far better. Gonzaga is superior to Wisconsin and the Badgers waxed the Wildcats, 76-48, last Saturday in the Big 10 Conference Tournament. Gonzaga is 20-5-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents.
03-17-17	UC-Davis +24 v. Kansas	Top	62-100	Loss	-110	11 h 36 m	Show
UC Davis is a team I've followed being on the West Coast and familar with the Big West Conference. The Aggies are better than perceived. They have athleticism, can play defense - holding their last four foes to less than 40 percent shooting - and have balanced scoring. The Aggies also won't be nearly as rusty as Kansas having defeated North Carolina Central this past Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament play-in game. The Aggies are excited to play in the NCAA Tournament, a first for them. A full effort from them should be forthcoming. Kansas has a different goal and that's to win not just this game but the entire tournament, a feat the Jayhawks are capable of achieving. So Kansas doesn't have the need to go all out every minute of this game with its starters. The Jayhawks also must deal with a rust factor. This is just their second game in 13 days. Kansas last played nine days ago and wasn't sharp losing to TCU in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Kansas is a mighty power, but it hasn't defeated an opponent by more than 19 points in its last 22 games. The Jayhawks are 0-5 the past five times laying 13 or more points, which coincides with their not being a strong favorite going 5-12-1 ATS the past 18 times as chalk. Bottom line is the Jayhawks haven't proven worthy of being good in the role of favorite and have no incentive to cover this big of a margin here.
03-16-17	Weber State v. CS-Fullerton +1	Top	80-76	Loss	-110	20 h 10 m	Show
Falling short in the Big Sky championship this past Saturday was a big deal for Weber State. That 93-89 overtime loss stung the Wildcats especially the seniors. Weber State had captured the Big Sky tournament two of the previous three seasons earning the right to play in the NCAA Tournament each time. Now the Wildcats have a short turnaround to travel and play Cal State Fullerton in a first round Collegeinsider.com Tournament game. It's a huge letdown for the Wildcats. I don't see the motivation here. Not so with Fullerton. The Titans finished third in the Big West and reached the semifinals of the conference tournament where they lost to eventual champion UC Davis, a team that just upset North Carolina Central on Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament. Fullerton finished strong winning eight of its last 10 regular season games. The Titans were the hottest team in the league down the stretch. They are excited about hosting this matchup. The Titans have an excellent player in Tre Coggins and are 12-3 at home. The Titans are athletic and play strong defense. Weber State has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games. This is what Weber State coach Randy Rahe said about the Titans, "... We've got a challenge. We're going to have to play really well to be competitive with them."
03-15-17	Colorado v. UCF -135	Top	74-79	Win	100	16 h 49 m	Show
Central Florida has a number of factors going that I like. This NIT matchup is a big deal for the Knights, who were picked to finish eighth in the 11-team American Athletic Conference. Instead, Central Florida went 21-11 and 11-7 in league in Johnny Dawkins first year as coach. Dawkins is familar with Colorado having coached the previous eight seasons for Stanford, Pac-12 rivals of Colorado. The Buffaloes knows far less about Central Florida. The Buffaloes aren't that excited about playing in the NIT having postseason play seven consecutive seasons, including going to the NCAA Tournament in four of those years. The Buffaloes also may not have their full focus getting to spend some of their spring break in Florida. The Knights led the nation in defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 36.2 percent shooting. A big factor is 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall. He was the AAC's Defensive Player of the Year. Colorado hasn't seen anyone who cand defend the rim like Fall.
03-14-17	CS Bakersfield +10.5 v. California	Top	73-66	Win	100	17 h 29 m	Show
Losses in six of their last nine games cost California an NCAA Tournament bid. The Bears' consolation prize is the NIT and hosting Cal Bakersfield in this first round game just two days after getting the highly disappointing news they won't be in the Big Dance. Do you think the Bears are excited to play in this game? I sure don't. This is what Cal coach Cuonzo Martin was quoted as saying: "(The players) were very disappointed and that's the challenge now: to get guys' energy levels up to play a game Tuesday night. They're very disappointed, but it goes with the territory." Cal has plenty of distractions, too. There are coaching rumors surrounding Martin. Senior Jabari Bird, Cal's leading scorer, is questionable due to a concussion. Sophomore forward Ivan Rabb, the team's No. 2 scorer, is considering entering the NBA draft. Bakersfield is a worthy enough opponent to spring a straight-up upset. The Roadrunners won the Western Athletic Conference regular-season title. They lost in the conference tournament title game to New Mexico State the day after winning a four-overtime semifinal game. The Roadrunners are the type of hard-nosed defensive team that can be most effective against a down-in-the-dumps opponent. They allowed just 63 points per game on 37.3 field goal shooting. Bakersfield is tournament tested, too. The Roadrunners made the NCAA Tournament last season throwing a scare into Final Four participant Oklahoma trailing by just five points with around four minutes left during their opening round game. The Roadrunners have covered seven of the last eight times in an underdog role and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road contests. These two teams last met on Dec. 28, 2014. That was Martin's first year at Berkeley. Bakersfield won, 55-52. The Roadrunners certainly are capable of repeating that feat especially considering the circumstances. Tuesday Free Play Georgia Tech plus 3 hosting Indiana (NIT) Back in November, Indiana was thought of as a possible Final Four contender after pulling off upsets of Kansas and North Carolina while Georgia Tech was considered a lower-rung ACC team. Rewind four months later to now. Georgia Tech has far exceeded expectations nearly making the NCAA Tournament. Indiana still has Final Four hopes - but for the NIT not NCAA. Of course that's disappointing for the Hoosiers. And it's likely they don't take this first-round NIT game as serious as Georgia Tech. Indiana declined to host this game even though it had the opportunity being the higher seed. The company line for turning down playing this matchup at home was renovations to Assembly Hall. The real reason, though, could be apathy and lack of good crowd support with the students off for spring break. The Hoosiers couldn't overcome injuries down the stretch. They lost six of their last eight regular-season games and were eliminated by Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. So not only is Indiana in bad form, but I can't see the Hoosiers caring much about this game. Another distraction are rumors coach Tom Crean is going to leave Indiana possibly for Missouri. Georgia Tech will be motivated. Yellow Jackets' first-year head coach, Josh Pastner, believes it's a tremendous opportunity not only to play in the postseason, but to defeat a name school with a great basketball tradition. It's a home game for the Yellow Jackets and it's going to be on national television. Pastner is so psyched for this game he's offered to pay for the tickets of any student wanting to attend. As added motivation, the Yellow Jackets want to win so they could meet in-state rival Georgia in the second round if the Bulldogs should beat Belmont on Wednesday as expected. Georgia Tech may have played its most embarrassing home game of the season when it lost to Georgia, 60-43, on Dec. 20. The Yellow Jackets want revenge. The motivation angle works for the Yellow Jackets here, but are they actually good enough to beat Indiana? I certainly believe so with the key being they are playing at McCamish Pavilion. Georgia Tech went 14-4 there against Division I opponents posting home victories against Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida State and Syracuse. Georgia Tech achieved its success with the nation's seventh most-efficient defense. The Yellow Jackets ranked 15th in defensive field goal percentage. They are led by 6-foot-10 junior center Ben Lammers, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. He averages 14.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game. Indiana is far more offensively inclined. The Hoosiers need to shoot well to win. They had problems with Wisconsin, the last strong defensive club they faced scoring just 60 points against the Badgers. Keep in mind, too, this was very much a down year in the Big Ten. The Yellow Jackets have been underrated all season. They've covered 12 of their last 16 games. They are a worthy underdog here.
03-12-17	Rhode Island v. VCU	Top	70-63	Win	100	5 h 1 m	Show
I'm going to roll with Rhode Island, which is playing its best basketball. The Rams are peaking winning their last seven games. Included among these victories is a 69-59 home victory against VCU that was achieved five games ago on Feb. 25. The Rams prevailed by double-digits in that win as 3 1/2-point favorites despite making just 35 percent of their shots from the floor. Rhode Island needs this victory to gain an automatic seed into the NCAA Tournament. A loss here to VCU could keep Rhode Island from making the tournament. VCU had to go overtime to beat Richmond in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Saturday. That was the later game, too. Rhode Island had a much easier time waltzing past Davidson by 24 points in the earlier Saturday semifinal game. I like that Rhode Island is hitting its ceiling, has less of a fatigue factor than VCU and is deep in the backcourt.
03-11-17	New Mexico State -2.5 v. CS Bakersfield	Top	70-60	Win	100	12 h 20 m	Show
This is the big rivalry matchup in the Western Athletic Conference. New Mexico State is playing at a high level winning its last four games all by 14 points or more. The Aggies have 27 wins, tying for the most victories in school history. The Aggies have revenge for a buzzer-beater loss to Cal State Bakersfield in the WAC Tournament Finals last season. The Aggies had won the previous four conference tournaments before that defeat. Only one New Mexico State player logged more than 33 minutes in the Aggies' 78-60 waltz over Missouri-Kansas City in Friday night's semifinal in Las Vegas. Bakersfield had it far, far rougher in the other semifinal game Friday night. The Roadrunners nipped Utah Valley, 81-80, in four overtimes! Jaylin Airington, the Roadrunners' leading scorer, played 49 minutes. Dedrick Basile, the team's third-leading scorer, was on the court for 53 minutes. Utah Valley was 6-8 in conference and only seeded fourth because Grand Canyon was ineligible for the postseason. The Aggies play an up-tempo style. The timing couldn't be worse for Bakersfield. I believe the Aggies are the superior team and now they have a huge situational element in their favor.
03-10-17	TCU v. Iowa State -4	Top	63-84	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
Tremendous job by TCU in stunning top-seeded Kansas, 85-82, yesterday in the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs they have no time to celebrate such a heady accomplishment. Iowa State is by far the superior team and catches TCU in a big letdown spot. The Horned Frogs had never defeated a top-three overall ranked team in 17 previous tries. They had entered the Big 12 tournament riding a seven-game losing streak. TCU was 2-10 the past 12 times versus .500 foes before upsetting the Jayhawks. Now the Horned Frogs' season has been made. The Cyclones are 7-1 in their last eight games, including rolling past TCU, 84-71, at home on Feb. 18. Iowa State has that needed excellent senior point guard in Monte Morris, who is playing with a chip on his shoulder after not being named a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award for nation's top point guard.
03-09-17	CS-Northridge v. CS-Fullerton -2	Top	68-81	Win	100	10 h 10 m	Show
These teams have gone in different directions leading up to the conference tournament. Cal State-Fullerton is 8-2 in its last 10 Big West games, covering six of their last seven. Cal State-Northridge has dropped six of its last seven. The Matadors' losses have coincided with losing big man Rakim Lubin to a torn Achilles on Feb. 4. He was the team's second-leading rebounder. The Titans have a size advantage and a very good senior guard in Tre Coggins. Fullerton also holds a talent edge, which was proven when the teams met this past Saturday at Northridge. The Titans beat the Matadors, 86-78. Northridge is 3-13 ATS following a loss.
03-08-17	UNLV v. San Diego State -9	Top	52-62	Win	100	17 h 45 m	Show
I can't see UNLV staying within double-digits of San Diego State in this first round Mountain West Conference Tournament game. The matchup is at Thomas & Mack Center, home of UNLV. But that won't matter. The Rebels lost their fan support weeks ago on their way to losing 12 of their last 15 games. The Rebels are poorly coached, don't play smart and aren't physically tough. Those are all fatal weaknesses going against San Diego State. The Aztecs are well-coached, rank 16th defensively in the country and have reached the tournament finals seven of the past eight years. UNLV is likely to be missing forward Tyrell Green, who is doubtful due to a knee injury. He didn't practice on Tuesday. Green is UNLV's second-leading scorer and No. 3 on the team in rebounding. The Rebels' frontcourt is even more vulnerable to the Aztecs without Green. San Diego State has defeated UNLV 10 consecutive times, including winning both games this season by 13 points each. UNLV is 2-8 ATS the past 10 times when taking between seven and 12 1/2 points.
03-06-17	BYU v. St. Mary's -6.5	Top	50-81	Win	100	18 h 25 m	Show
BYU's lack of depth and inexperience should prove fatal against Saint Mary's especially in such a short turnaround. The Cougars just defeated Loyola Marymount, 89-81, in the quarterfinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament on Saturday. Saint Mary's has shot better than 50 percent during 18 of its 30 games. The Gaels beat the Cougars, 81-68, at home and 70-57 at Provo this season. Both of those games were convincing double-digit wins for the Gaels, who led the Cougars by 25 points in the latter matchup played on Feb. 18. Saint Mary's has been golden in this spread range covering seven of the last eight times when favored between seven and 12 1/2-points.
03-03-17	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit -1.5	Top	85-60	Loss	-110	11 h 13 m	Show
UW-Milwaukee coach LaVall Jordan knew he was going to have it rough in his first season as head coach of the Panthers. He was hired under difficult circumstances and the Panthers had a dreadful season going 8-23 while finishing last in the Horizon League at 4-14. But now can the Panthers turn things around in the conference tournament opening today against Detroit Mercy? No. The Panthers are a dead team losers of nine in a row. They just hosted Detroit Mercy two games ago on Feb. 24 losing 81-74. The Titans aren't exactly as a powerhouse, but they clearly are better than UWM. So I'm surprised at this low of a spread especially with the game being playing at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit. The Titans finished two games better than the Panthers in conference and have the two best players on the court in Corey Allen and Jaleel Hogan.
02-28-17	Fresno State +5 v. Boise State	Top	74-67	Win	100	8 h 19 m	Show
Fresno State came on strong at the end of last season and the Bulldogs are doing it again this season winning and covering their last three games. The Bulldogs have been tremendous in an underdog role covering 11 of the last 14 times. By contrast, Boise State has failed to cover in its last six games and also is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games. The line is inflated a bit because it is Senior Night in Boise, but the Broncos don't have any difference makers who are seniors.
02-26-17	Georgia Tech +12 v. Notre Dame	Top	60-64	Win	100	18 h 60 m	Show
Before diving into a breakdown of this matchup and why Georgia Tech getting this many points is the right side, let's examine the history. Georgia Tech and Notre Dame have met seven times since the Irish joined the Atlantic Coast Conference. The games have been decided by 4.1 points. The Yellow Jackets have covered seven of the last eight times versus Notre Dame, including winning the first meeting this season, 62-60, as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs on Jan. 28. Now, nearly, a month later that spread is almost double as the Irish host the Yellow Jackets. I say the line is much too high. Notre Dame has gotten back on track winning four in a row. The Irish win with offense averaging 84.3 points during their victory streak. However, the Irish haven't played in more than a week last in action on Feb. 18. That's too long to go without playing this late in the season. A certain freshness would be welcomed for tired teams down the stretch, but eight days between games means there's a good chance of rust, which would especially hurt an offensive-minded squad such as the Irish. There's a certain zig-zag this late in college basketball for NCAA Tournament bubble teams such as Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are bidding to make the Big Dance for the first time since 2010. Their chances suffered a big blow when they lost at home to North Carolina State, 71-69, this past Tuesday. Josh Okogie had another big game with 25 points, but the Yellow Jackets hurt themselves by blowing 12 layups and going 13-for-22 (59.1 percent) from the foul line. That tough defeat means the Yellow Jackets must - at the very least - win two of their final three games to have a shot at getting an NCAA berth. Those games are against the 21st-ranked Irish, hosting Pittsburgh on Tuesday and then playing at Syracuse. Georgia Tech has had four full days to brew about that missed opportunity against NC State. So look for the Yellow Jackets to throw their best punch at the Irish. They certainly are capable of beating good teams having defeated North Carolina, Florida State, VCU and Notre Dame. The Yellow Jackets are well-coached, have shown fight and their starting lineup has talent especially Okogie, who has scored in double figures in 14 of his 15 conference games. Lack of depth is a problem, which could crop up against Pittsburgh on Tuesday in the short turnaround. Syracuse will be looking for revenge when the Orange play Georgia Tech at home. So this is a game the Yellow Jackets really need. Georgia Tech has covered nine of its last 12 ACC games and is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times versus above .500 opponents. Notre Dame only has beaten one team by more than 12 points since Christmas.
02-25-17	Seton Hall -6.5 v. DePaul	Top	82-79	Loss	-110	7 h 45 m	Show
Seton Hall doesn't want to hurt its chances of making the NCAA Tournament by losing this game. The Pirates have won four of their last six games to get into Big Dance conversation. They destroyed the Blue Demons by 31 points when they played last month easily covering as 14-point favorites. DePaul is fat and happy after ending its 10-game losing streak in style with a 67-65 road win against Georgetown. The Blue Demons were 13 1/2-point 'dogs. DePaul is 3-12-1 ATS following a victory. I don't see DePaul pulling a second straight upset. The Blue Demons have lost their last three home games losing by 13 to Villanova, by 35 to Creighton and by 13 to Marquette. The Blue Demons have matchup issues against Seton Hall's big three of Angel Delgado, Khadeen Carrington and Desi Rodriguez. All three players have scored 1,000 points this season. In the RIP rankings, Seton Hall ranked 48th as of Thursday with DePaul at 224. In the Pomeroy ratings, the Pirates were at 57 with DePaul at 183.
02-22-17	St. Louis +22 v. VCU	Top	50-64	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
VCU is in a huge look ahead spot as its next two games are against the other top two teams in the Atlantic 10 - Rhode Island and Dayton. The Rams matchup versus Dayton likely will decide the Atlantic 10 title. I can easily envision a letdown spot for VCU with the Rams taking their foot off the pedal. VCU is 6-15-1 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The key is can the Billikens hang in? I believe they can. Saint Louis is an above average defensive team. The Billikens should play with a full amount of intensity after a bad loss to Fordham in their last game this past Saturday. Travis Ford has done a nice job coaching Saints Louis and he called out his players for lack of effort and passion following that loss to Fordham. Up until their last two games, Saint Louis had been on a nice point spread run. The Billikens are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 7-1 ATS following a loss and a tough team to cover a large margin against because of their slow pace.
02-21-17	NC State v. Georgia Tech -3	Top	71-69	Loss	-105	7 h 29 m	Show
I'm going to ride the Yellow Jackets here. They haven't lost a home game since Jan. 7 and that was versus Louisville. Among their home wins have been conference victories against Syracuse, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame. They have covered nine of their last 11. The teams met in mid-January and Georgia Tech won by 10 on the road. North Carolina State has dropped and failed to cover seven in a row. Mark Gottfried is a lame duck coach having already been fired. The Wolfpack fell behind Notre Dame by 23 points before losing by nine at home in their last game after getting the news about Gottfried. The Wolfpack lost to the Irish despite shooting 51.7 percent from the floor. Georgia Tech has the 16th best defensive field goal percentage in the country. Now the Wolfpack go on the road. They have lost their last three away games by a combined 79 points!
02-20-17	Texas +16 v. West Virginia	Top	62-77	Win	100	13 h 24 m	Show
Texas is 0-12 on the road and at neutral sites this season. But we're not talking about a crazy money line play here. The Longhorns just need to stay fairly close, something they mostly do having not lost by more than 15 points during their past 23 games. Some of the Longhorns' road problems can be attributed to starting four underclassmen. But these young players - Jarrett Allen, Andrew Jones and Kerwin Roach to name three - are talented. Allen is a 6-foot-11 freshman who could get taken in the NBA lottery. While the Longhorns don't win on the road, they do cover spreads. Texas is 11-5 ATS the past 16 times as a road underdog. The Longhorns have lost by 10 or less points away from home against Oklahoma (by four), versus Georgia (by two), against Kansas (by two), versus Baylor (by 10), against Iowa State (by nine) and against Kansas State (by three). West Virginia just nipped Texas, 74-72, when the teams met for the first time this season on Jan. 14. The Longhorns have had tremendous point spread success versus West Virginia covering eight of the last nine times.
02-17-17	Fairfield -118 v. Quinnipiac	Top	89-86	Win	100	7 h 30 m	Show
The Metro Atlantic Athletic conference takes center stage today in a limited college basketball menu. Fairfield has covered the past six times as road chalk and is such a short favorite that a money line play is warranted because of the low juice. Fairfield has revenge for a 73-71 home loss to Quinipiac 11 days ago when it blew an 11-point lead with seven minutes left. The Staggs were four-point favorites in that contest. It was not one of Fairfield's better performances, but it was more on the Staggs than the Bobcats. That also was Fairfield's only loss during its past six games. The Staggs have won tougher road games than this one. Quinnipiac drew less than 600 fans to its last home game, which was a 31-point loss to St. Peter's. The Staggs are 8-2 ATS versus sub .500 teams. Quinnipiac is 2-5 in its last seven games. I don't see the Bobcats coming away with a sweep.
02-14-17	Dayton v. St. Louis +14	Top	85-63	Loss	-110	16 h 12 m	Show
OK, let's get this out of the way right away. Dayton has the best defense in the Atlantic 10. Kyle Davis is an outstanding player leading the conference both in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Flyers are an impressive team going 46-12 in their last 58 league games, but I don't see them covering this big of a road number against the improved Billikens. Saint Louis has covered the past six times it has been a 'dog. The team has covered nine of its last 10. The Billikens draw the fourth-highest crowd support in the league. They've won their last four home games and own upset home victories against Duquesne, Massachusetts and George Mason since Jan. 25. Saint Louis nearly defeated Dayton at home last season leading by nine with seven minutes left before falling in overtime. The Billikens were worse last season yet almost beat Dayton losing by three as 13-point 'dogs. The Billikens are improved both defensively and offensively topping 75 points in three of their last four games. The spot is excellent, too, for Saint Louis. The Billikens have their confidence up and catch Dayton off a huge underdog road victory against Rhode Island.

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