The NIT has reached its semifinals. That means the four remaining teams play at Madison Square Garden. That's a huge plus for the Under as college teams unfamiliar with the Garden's large arena and difficult shooting background have trouble scoring. 

So I'm expecting a huge defensive matchup between Washington State and Texas A&M. 

Washington State ranks 64th defensively giving up 65.3 points. The Cougars have held four of their last five opponents to 63 or fewer points. 

Texas A&M holds foes to an average of 66.7 points. The Aggies have given up an average of 60.8 points in their last six games. 

Both teams are below average in field goal percentage. Washington State ranks 321st in field goal shooting. Texas A&M ranks 241st in 3-point accuracy and 268th in free throw percentage.

This is a bad matchup for Miami due to Kansas' height, athleticism and transition defense.

The Hurricanes thrive in transition. That's not going to happen against the Jayhawks, though.

Providence hung against Kansas in its 66-61 loss this past Friday, by getting 16 offensive rebounds. Miami doesn't have the size to do that. The Hurricanes aren't good rebounders on either side of the court ranking 311th in defensive rebounds. Kansas is plus 32 on the boards during the NCAA Tournament.

Miami will need to make its share of 3-pointers. That hasn't been happening for the Hurricanes. They are 13-of-40 from beyond the arc during the tournament.

Arkansas has knocked off outstanding teams all season, culminating with the Razorbacks taking down Gonzaga. 

All the Razorbacks do is win games - 18-3 in their last 21 - and cover spreads - 15-5-1 ATS during this span. 

I get the Mike Krzyewski narrative that things are fated for the Blue Devils to win the national championship in this Krzyewski's final season. I admit, too, that I get a little suspicious whenever I see a referee smile at Krzyewski. 

But I have to go with my numbers and matchup analysis. And it doesn't add up to the Blue Devils being favorites in this point spread range let alone favorites at all. 
I've always liked Eric Musselman. He's doing a fantastic job with Arkansas. He's certainly no slouch as a coach - and his teams cover spreads.

Duke bettors often have to deal with inflated lines. The Blue Devils have failed to cover seven of their last nine NCAA Tournament games. 

Duke is as talented as ever. The Blue Devils don't have that much experience, though. Musselman devised an effective plan to limit Gonzaga star Chet Holmgren. The Razorbacks held Holmgren to 11 points. They held the Zags to nearly 20 points below their season average.

Musselman has had a day and a half to come up with something to thwart Duke star Paolo Bachero. I trust him and I trust Arkansas' defense. 

Arizona has looked less than stellar in beating Wright State and gritty TCU in overtime during its first two NCAA Tournament games. That's putting it kindly. The Wildcats made only five of 27 3-point shots against the Horned Frogs.

But the Wildcats survived. Now, four days after getting past TCU, I see a regrouped Arizona playing much better. Arizona can beat any team in the nation if it plays its ''A'' game. The Wildcats are due for that.

Arizona ranks No. 3 in the nation in points per game at 84.7 and is fifth in field goal percentage. The Wildcats have the second-tallest frontcourt in the country. Houston isn't nearly that explosive, nor has the height and overall wingspan to defeat the Wildcats. The Cougars also have a severe weakness - free throw shooting. They rank 334th in free throw accuracy at 66.3 percent.

Not to take anything away from Houston's impressive 68-53 second-round tournament victory against Illinois, but several things need to be pointed out. The Big Ten Conference did indeed turn out to be vastly overrated. Only Purdue and Michigan made it to the Sweet 16. The Cougars were successful in beating the Illini because they could get away with double and triple-teaming Illinois superstar big man Kofi Cockburn.

That strategy won't work against Arizona because the Wildcats have several excellent big men plus a better perimeter game. Houston hasn't encountered a guard the likes of Arizona's Bennedict Mathurin.

This is the spot where Arizona steps up and proves just how good it is.

Texas beat Kansas and Tennessee this season. The Longhorns certainly are capable of defeating Purdue.

The key is the Longhorns' ninth-ranked defense and the tremendous coaching of Chris Beard.

Purdue coach Matt Painter has gone against Beard twice in the NCAA Tournament and lost both times. Beard bested Painter when he was at Arkansas Little Rock and at Texas Tech in a Sweet 16 victory against Purdue in 2018. Beard led Texas Tech to the NCAA Tourney title game 2019 and Elite Eight in 2018.

I trust Beard to neutralize 7-foot-4 Zach Edey inside and fluster Jaden Ivey forcing him to do too much. On the offensive end, Beard's motion offense can exploit Purdue's defensive liabilities, freeing up Timmy Allen and others to get open looks. The Boilermakers rank 207th in 3-point defense.

Purdue is just 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 games and 7-18-2 ATS the past 27 times when favored. Purdue had failed to cover in its last six games before burying an overmatched Yale squad in its first-round NCAA Tourney game.

Great upset win by New Mexico State beating Connecticut, 70-63, as a six-point 'dog on Thursday. That halted a 12-game NCAA Tourney losing streak for the Aggies and gave them their first NCAA Tourney victory in 29 years.

Teddy Allen scored 37 points to spark the Lobos. That was 13 points more than his season average. Jabari Rice averages 13.7 points. No other New Mexico State player averages even eight points a game.

Realistically the Lobos have accomplished a major goal. They not only made the NCAA Tournament, but finally won a game.

Arkansas has been a covering machine going 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in its last 15 games. The Razorbacks, however, didn't cover their opening NCAA Tourney game beating Vermont, 75-71, as a five-point favorite. Teams that won but didn't cover in their opening NCAA Tourney game are 57 percent against the spread in their second-round game during the past 229 instances.

New Mexico State still could be floating on Cloud 9 while Arkansas knows what it's like to go deep into the NCAA Tourney reaching the Elite Eight last year before losing to eventual champion Baylor.

There are many red flags waving against the Badgers in this matchup. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS the last nine times it has been favored. The Badgers enter the tournament losers of two in a row, including a shocking home loss to Nebraska. So they are not in peak form by any means.

Johnny Davis, the Big Ten Player of the Year, was hurt against Nebraska and was terrible when he returned against Michigan State missing 16 of 19 shots from the field in Wisconsin's 69-63 loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. If Davis isn't 100 percent, the Badgers are in huge trouble.

Colgate has come on very strong winning 19 of its last 20 games, including the last 15. The unsung Raiders have the veteran savvy, scoring depth and 3-point shooting to defeat the Badgers straight-up. Colgate has made the NCAA Tournament in three of the past four years. The Raiders have five players scoring in double figures and rank No. 4 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Wisconsin gave up the highest percentage of open 3-point shots in the Big Ten.

The Raiders are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games. Wisconsin is overhyped right now. The line is inflated, too, because the game is in Milwaukee. But Colgate has the experience to handle that.

I'm going to ride Murray State here. The Racers have won 20 in a row. They last tasted defeat back on Dec. 22 against Auburn, which had been the No. 1 ranked team in the country for a while.

I don't think it's asking too much of Murray State to beat San Francisco, the fourth-best team in the West Coast Conference. I respect the WCC, but I also think Murray State's Ohio Valley Conference is underrated.

San Francisco could be dealing with a case of nerves having not participated in the NCAA Tournament in 24 years. The Dons are guard-oriented with one good big man, center Yauhen Massalski. However, Massalski is dealing with a knee injury sustained 12 days ago. It caused him to miss the Dons' last game. He'll likely play here but his mobility could be affected.

I thought the Mid-American Conference was strong this season. Toledo was the class of that conference going 26-7, including 17-3 in league. But the Rockets were upset in the semifinals of the MAC Tournament by Akron. So the Rockets didn't get an NCAA Tournament berth. Instead they are in the NIT.

Unfair? Probably. The key is how will the Rockets react? That's a difficult question. I do think the Rockets, though, will win this game. They catch a huge break getting to be the host team. Toledo is 13-1 at home this season. The Rockets are 12-5 ATS the past 17 times when favored.

Dayton is a slow-paced Atlantic-10 Conference team that averages 12 points fewer per game than Toledo. The Flyers are tough defensively. But they don't have the scoring to keep up with the Rockets with the game in Toledo. The Rockets are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation at 81.5 points. They rank 16th in field goal percentage and 21st in free throw percentage. They also are 16th in the country in assist/turnover ratio.

Every year there are great spots in the NIT featuring favorites who are overpriced because they are off disappointing seasons and suffer letdowns in their first round game. 

I find this total to be short. Iowa was the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation during the regular season. The Hawkeyes have been even better during the Big Ten Conference Tournament averaging 92 points in games against Northwestern, Rutgers and Indiana. Iowa is shooting 51 percent from the floor during the tournament and 48 percent from 3-point range. Keegan Murray is living up to his superstar billing averaging 28 points in the tourney. 

Purdue was the seventh-highest scoring team during the regular season averaging 80.7 points. The Boilermakers ranked third in the nation in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. They are stepping down in defensive class going against Iowa after having faced Michigan State and Penn State. The Hawkeyes have surrendered an average of 75.2 points in their last four games. 

Regular season Pac-12 champion and No. 2 ranked Arizona committed 17 turnovers against Colorado on Friday. The Buffaloes were sizzling from 3-point range hitting 16 of their 32 shots from beyond the arc for 50 percent.

Yet not only did Arizona win, but the Wildcats also covered the spread in an 82-72 victory.

I have to believe the Wildcats will play a cleaner and much better game against UCLA. The Bruins are off a highly satisfying and emotional Pac-12 semifinal victory against USC last night.

The Bruins are searching for their first Pac-12 tournament title in eight years.

I respect UCLA's defense. But I favor Arizona's scoring more. Only two teams score more than Arizona's 84.7 points per game.

These have been two hot, play-on teams. At this point spread range, though, I have to get involved and back Long Beach State.

All the Beach have done is go 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games. They've won eight of their last 10 games and are 20-7 ATS the past 27 times when getting points.

Santa Barbara is the No. 5 seed in this Big West Tournament. Long Beach State is the No. 1 seed.

A case of food poisoning and lack of defense makes Duke an unattractive favorite. The Blue Devils lost at home to North Carolina in their final regular season game and were unimpressive in an 88-79 ACC Tournament quarterfinal win against undermanned Syracuse yesterday.

This is what Duke coach Mike Kryzewski said following the Syracuse game: ''We're not playing very good defense right now. We did not against North Carolina and we did not in this game. We're missing a lot of assignments. Kryzewski also said some Duke players were dealing with food poisoning.

Miami is 9-3 ATS as an underdog this season, including upsetting Duke, 76-74, on the road in January.

This has been a down year for Utah State. I don't see the Aggies pulling off an upset against Colorado State in this Mountain West Conference Tournament game.

Utah State blew out a bad Air Force team on Wednesday to open tournament play. Prior to that, however, the Aggies had dropped five of their last seven regular season games.

This is in direct contrast to Colorado State, which enters the tournament having won eight of its last nine games. The Rams' last three games were victories against Boise State, which finished one game ahead of Colorado State to capture the regular season title, Utah State by 11 points on the road and Wyoming, the fourth-place team in the conference. 

Earlier this season, the Rams defeated the Aggies by five points. 

The Rams are led by David Roddy, who was named the Mountain West Player of the Year. 

Don't expect much scoring in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament game. Not with Canisius and Fairfield matching up.

Canisius is one of the worst shooting teams in the country ranking 337th. The Golden Griffins, though, haven't given up more than 67 points in four of their last five games.

Fairfield has surrendered an average of only 59.3 points during its last three games. The Stags, however, managed just 41 points against St. Peter's during their last game. No team plays at a slower pace in the MAAC than Fairfield.

Note, too, this game is at neutral site Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. The MAAC has used this site for its postseason tournament since 2020 and the Under has cashed 73 percent of the time during the previous 15 games. It's not a fluke as the shooting background is tough because of the spacious gym and unfamiliar surroundings.

Just because Hartford is playing in its home arena doesn't mean the Hawks should be favored against this opponent, let alone by this many points. 

Albany is 13-17. Hartford is 11-19. 

The teams split their two meetings this season. Albany beat the Hawks on the road, 71-52. Hartford got its revenge this past Tuesday defeating the Great Danes, 67-55. The Hawks shot 13 more free throws in that contest. They also made 13 of 24 3-pointers for 54 percent. Hartford shoots 37.7 percent from beyond the arc on the season. 

The Great Danes are 8-1-2 ATS in their past 11 away games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering six of the last seven. 

UNLV has come on strong, but the Rebels still failed to finish among the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference. This is UNLV's final regular season game and last matchup before the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

It's a flat spot for the Rebels.

Not so for New Mexico, which has revenge for a 29-point loss to the Rebels earlier in the season.

The Lobos have a winning home record. The Rebels have a losing road mark.

Richmond defeated St. Bonaventure, 71-61, earlier this season. I see the Spiders repeating that performance in the rematch. Taking points is a nice bonus.

St. Bonaventure began conference play slowly before rolling off seven straight wins. However, the Bonnies' streak was snapped in brutal fashion with a 74-51 road loss to VCU this past Tuesday. The Bonnies were minus Osun Osunniyi in that game due to an ankle injury and could be missing him again in this matchup. He averages 11 points and is the Bonnies' leading rebounder.

Richmond is experienced, solid on both sides of the ball, ranks ninth nationally in turnover rate and hasn't lost two straight games since Dec. 30-Jan. 2.

The Spiders also are road tested going 14-5-1 ATS during their past 20 away games, including 8-3 ATS in their past 11. St. Bonaventure is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times against opponents with a winning record.

Campbell is the better team. Power rating-wise, I have the Fighting Camels as a mid-size favorite at a neutral site in this Big South Tournament matchup.

Presbyterian is 12-19. Campbell is 15-12.

The Fighting Camels have a far superior defense giving up fewer than 62 points per game. They rank 22nd in the nation defensively. Presbyterian is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.

This is a kill spot for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are looking for redemption after getting upset this past Sunday at Maryland.

Ohio State still has much to play for trying to secure a top-four seed into the Big Ten Tournament and the bye into the quarterfinals that goes with it. The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including 8-1 in the Big Ten. They also are 8-2 ATS following a point spread loss.

Nebraska has been bad again this season going 8-21 with a 2-16 Big Ten record. The Cornhuskers, though, are in a rare flat spot having stunned Penn State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog, 93-70, this past Sunday.

San Diego State has the No. 2 defense in the country. I have great respect for the Aztecs. But I'm not buying Wyoming as a home underdog.

The Cowboys have won all 14 of their home games this season. They have the two best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points per game than San Diego State and also has a respectable defense giving up 65.6 points, which ranks 74th, and is 24th in 3-point defense.

Wyoming is 23-5 overall and 12-3 in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is 18-7 overall and 10-4 in the Mountain West.

The Cowboys are proven, too, against good competition going 22-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record.

Barring winning the Pac-12 Conference Tournament, Colorado won't be going to the NCAA Tournament. So this revenge spot is the Buffaloes' game of the year.
It didn't show in the first meeting because the Buffaloes missed 15 of their 20 3-point shots in a 21-point loss, but Colorado can hang within single digits of Arizona based on their size and home situation. 

The Wildcats have a bigger game on deck playing at USC. 

Colorado has been playing well with five victories in its last six games. This is the Buffaloes' final home game of the season so it's senior night. This has been a home team series with the host covering six of the last seven times.
 
The Buffaloes normally shoot much better from beyond the arch than they did during the first meeting. Arizona is just average defending against the 3-pointer. 

San Diego State is in fourth place in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs just lost to first-place Boise State by one point this past Tuesday. The Aztecs have second-place Wyoming on deck following this opponent - San Jose State.

San Jose State is last in the conference.

So San Diego State can't be blamed if they take the Spartans for granted while in the middle of a conference sandwich.

The Aztecs haven't been good lately in this role. They've been favored by 14 points or more three times in their past six games. They are 0-3 ATS in those games.

The Aztecs' 0-3 ATS mark laying big points isn't a fluke. San Diego State plays great defense, but only averages 65.1 points a game. That ranks 306th.

San Jose State hung in during the first meeting between the two teams losing, 72-62, on Feb. 9 as a 17-point home 'dog.

The Spartans should be loose and confident having upset New Mexico, 71-55, as a 5 1/2-point home 'dog during their previous game. That snapped a 14-game losing streak. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and have covered in five of their past six road contests.

Northern Arizona isn't very good at 9-18. But 6-20 Idaho State is downright terrible. I find this a short number to lay with the Lumberjacks at home.

Idaho State ranks 326th in scoring at 64.2 points a game. The Bengals are just as bad defensively ranking 340th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Lumberjacks have covered six of their last eight games.

Chattanooga rolled past East Tennessee State, 82-52, as a 7 1/2-point home favorite on Dec. 31.

The Mocs may not win by 30 points again, but they still should easily win this game.

Chattanooga is the top team in the Southern Conference with a 22-7 overall record and 12-4 league mark. East Tennessee State ranks eighth out of 10 teams in the Southern Conference with a 6-10 league mark. The Buccaneers are under .500 on the season overall.

The Mocs are 21-5-1 ATS the past 27 times playing a below .500 opponent. They also have covered 67 percent of their last 55 road games. The Mocs are 5-1 in their last six road contests.

Chattanooga clearly is superior to the Buccaneers outscoring them per game while giving up an average of eight fewer points a game.

The Buccaneers have revenge and senior night playing in their final home game of the season. But Chattanooga isn't going to lack motivation. The Mocs are on a rare two-game losing skid falling twice at home as big favorites during their past two games. They haven't lost three in a row all season. Chattanooga is 20-7-1 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game.

East Tennessee State defeated The Citadel in its last game. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread six of the past seven times following a victory.

I'll willingly accept this many points with a desperate Michigan State and Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 1-4 in their last five games. They are 8-3 ATS following a loss.

Iowa, in contrast to Michigan State, has won four of its last five. The Hawkeyes are averaging 90.5 points in their last five games.

This has contributed to an inflated line, though.

Points and possessions matter in the rugged Big Ten. The Spartans haven't been an underdog of more than three points in any of their 15 Big Ten games. The Hawkeyes aren't that much better than the Spartans - if they are even better at all.

I don't trust Penn State's weak offense, nor do I trust the Nittany Lions on the road.

Penn State ranks 306th in scoring. Maryland averages five more points per game than the Nittany Lions.

The Terrapins hold a backcourt edge with Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell, both of whom average more points than any player on Penn State.

The Nittany Lions are 1-6 in their Big Ten Conference road games. They have lost their last five away Big Ten matchups.

Maryland has looked good recently. The Terrapins nearly upset Purdue on the road two games ago falling by one point. Maryland then buried Nebraska, 90-74, in its last game hitting 52 percent from the floor while turning the ball over just four times.

The Terrapins have proven themselves at home knocking off Illinois there and losing to Wisconsin by only one point.

Can the Wolverines win road games against Iowa and Wisconsin in a span of four days? I say no.

Michigan upset the Hawkeyes this past Thursday, 84-79. Now, though, the Wolverines draw the 15th-ranked Badgers also on the road.

Wisconsin gives up the fewest turnovers in the nation at 8.6. The Badgers' traditionally strong defense is coming on, too, giving up an average of 63.2 points during the last four games.

Michigan has faced five ranked teams this season - and lost four of those five games.

Kent State is an upper level Mid-American Conference team. But Ohio leads the MAC and is better than the Golden Flashes. So I'm not buying Kent State opening as the favorite.

The Bobcats are 22-4, including 8-3 on the road. They have a better road mark than Kent State's home record. The Golden Flashes are 16-9, 8-4 at home.

Ohio took care of Kent State, 80-72, back on Jan. 7. Bobcats star Mark Sears had a big game with 28 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the floor while grabbing six rebounds and dishing off three assists.

Sears averages 20.1 points, which ranks in the top 20 in the country. He's a tremendous shooter. Ohio ranks 15th in the country in turnover margin and first in the MAC at plus 4.23.

Kent State can't match Sears, nor Ohio's ball protection.

Ohio is ranked 87th in the latest NET rankings. Kent State is ranked 140th.

I don't see another Fresno State loss happening here with the Bulldogs home to the Rebels, who are 3-8 ATS during their past 11 road contests. Fresno State has covered nine of its last 11 home games. 

UNLV has been hot from beyond the arc lately. Don't look for that to continue, though, against a Fresno State defense that ranks fifth in the nation allowing only 57.9 points. 

The Bulldogs shoot better from the floor than the Rebels and also are the superior free throw shooting team. Fresno State beat UNLV, 73-68, at UNLV on Jan. 14. That was the seventh time in the last 10 meetings the Bulldogs have defeated the Rebels. 

Southern Utah has the better record, but I find Northern Colorado to be the superior team.

The Bears defeated the Thunderbirds, 91-81, on the road early last month. After playing just three times from Jan. 8 to Jan. 31, the Bears are back in sync. They are averaging 82.2 points during their last 10 games, shooting 49.9 percent from the field during this span, and have won three in a row.

The Thunderbirds are a high-scoring team, but they rank 280th defensively. So the Bears should continue their high-scoring ways.

Southern Utah has been terrible against the spread failing to cover in 11 of its last 15 games.

Tennessee State hasn't scored more than 65 pts in six of its last eight games.

Austin Peay is averaging 57 points in regulation during its last seven games discounting its previous game versus Southeast Missouri State, which ranks 338th defensively.

Just 126 points were scored during the first meeting between these two teams.

Both teams play at a very slow tempo.

So all the makings are here for another low-scoring Under game.

These teams met on Jan. 17. Hofstra was an eight-point home favorite and beat Drexel, 71-68. Hofstra is the fourth-best free throw shooting team in the nation at 80 percent. The Pride shot just 10 free throws in that game and also made only 4 of 16 3-pointers.

Hofstra is 14-9 and in third place in the Colonial Athletic Association at 7-4. Drexel is 11-10 and 6-5 in the CAA.

There is a point spread difference of around 10 points in this game compared to the earlier meeting. Hofstra is the better team so I'm attracted to taking this many points.

The Pride just defeated UNC-Wilmington in its last game three days ago. Drexel went against Wilmington on Jan. 31 and lost, 70-63.

Both Utah State and Wyoming are playing well. But the Cowboys are the superior team and are at home with a short point spread.

Wyoming is a perfect 10-0 at home. The Cowboys have outscored opponents by an average of 20.3 points at home.

The Cowboys average 84.1 points at home. That's 12 points higher than what Utah State averages on the road.

The Aggies have won five in a row so perhaps that's why the spread is shorter than I anticipated. However, four of those victories were achieved at home. The Aggies also played some weak competition during this time frame posting wins against UNLV, San Jose State and Air Force.

Utah State has a losing road mark.

Wyoming is 10-1 in its last 11 games and 19-3 overall. The Cowboys trail Boise State by one-half game for the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. They can't afford a loss here especially following their tremendous, 61-59, road upset win against Fresno State this past Sunday night.

The Cowboys feature two of the best players in the conference, Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado.

These are two of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State has the sixth-best defense in the country.

But Wyoming is the more complete team. Fresno State also is coming off two easy matchups.

The Cowboys have won nine of their last 10 games. They are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 road games, including covering the past four. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times.

Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points pre game than Fresno State. The Bulldogs have one of the best players in the conference, Orlando Robinson. But Wyoming has two of the three best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado.

There aren't many easy games in the Big 12 Conference. And this one isn't going to be easy for Texas Tech especially after the Red Raiders won an emotional, 77-64, home game against 23rd-ranked Texas this past Tuesday.

West Virginia is in a desperate situation with six straight losses and possibly missing its best player, point guard Taz Sherman. He's in concussion protocol and questionable for this game.

With or without Sherman, though, I like West Virginia in this spot.

The Mountaineers played well in their last game, an 81-77 road loss to Baylor this past Monday. They shot a season-best 54.2 percent from the field. Look for the Mountaineers to give Texas Tech their best punch. I doubt the Red Raiders can produce another ''A'' game after beating Texas.

Should be a great game: Ohio at Toledo to decide the Mid-American Conference and No. 1 conference tournament seed.

That game, though, is Tuesday. Before that Toledo is being asked to cover what I see as an inflated road number against Ball State.

The Rockets have won nine in a row. But this definitely is a look-ahead spot for them, which could produce a flat effort.

Ball State had won and covered three in a row until getting buried by Ohio in its last game. The Cardinals average a healthy 74 points a game.

The Cardinals have covered eight of their last 11 games. The Rockets have allowed 173 3-point field goals. Ball State has made 180 3-pointers, ranking 69th in 3-point accuracy.

The combination of their 3-point shooting, home-court and catching Toledo in a flat spot should mean a cover for the Cardinals.

Every point figures to matter in this matchup of elite defenses. Texas has the No. 1 defense in the nation holding foes to 54.5 points. Defense is a Chris Beard trademark as Texas Tech well knows about its former coach. The Red Raiders allow the 19th-fewest points in the country. 

So I'm attracted to the road 'dog receiving this many points. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering eight of the last 11 times. 

I trust Beard's defense and the Longhorns' motion offense to find some open looks from 3-point range. I also trust the Longhorns to control their turnover count facing Texas Tech's full-court pressure. 

It comes down to what should be a low-scoring matchup, as the oddsmaker anticipates, where Texas definitely can stay within two possessions. 

Notre Dame is hot, winning nine of its last 10 games. But Virginia is just the team to beat the Irish.

The Cavaliers are a bad matchup for Notre Dame as evidenced by Virginia defeating the Irish 16 of 18 times in the series, including the past six times.

Notre Dame relies on its perimeter shooting especially from long range. The Irish rank 27th in 3-point percentage. Notre Dame is very much a rhythm team.

Virginia disrupts that rhythm. No team plays slower than the Cavaliers. Virginia's defense is at its best clamping down on open shots, especially catch-and-shoot 3-point shots like Notre Dame likes to launch.

On the flip side, Virginia guards Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman are adept at patiently beating half-court sets. Given four days to prepare, Virginia's elite coach Tony Bennett should have an excellent game plan.

Virginia is 5-3 SU and ATS in its last eight road/neutral site games. Notre Dame is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 home games versus foes who have an above .500 road mark.

Penny Hardaway was one of my favorite NBA players when he played for the Orlando Magic. But as a head college basketball coach, Hardaway has to rank among the bottom 10. He actually could be in the argument as the worst coach.

Yes Hardaway's Memphis team has had injuries. But the Tigers have underachieved so much they may not even make the NCAA Tournament. Memphis 5-12-1 ATS on the season. The Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

Until beating Tulsa in their last game, the Tigers had lost three in a row.

East Carolina is off an embarrassing, 79-36, road loss to Houston this past Saturday. I find this line inflated because of that loss.

Before that defeat to the Cougars, East Carolina had lost in overtime as an underdog to Central Florida and upset Memphis, 72-71, as a 7-point home 'dog. That was less than two weeks ago. Memphis shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while East Carolina made 40 percent of its field goals. Yet the Pirates still pulled it out.

The Pirates may be without third-leading scorer Brandon Suggs, who scored the game-winner against Memphis in the first meeting. The Tigers, though, are far more banged-up. They will be without their leading scorer, Deandre Williams, and likely NBA lottery pick and leading team rebounder Jalen Duren. He is questionable with a hand injury. Also out are Landers Nolley II and Jayden Hardaway. Nolley leads the Tigers in assists.

These are two of the top 14 teams in the nation, according to the latest The Associated Press rankings. But we're getting a buy-low spot on Michigan State since the Spartans were upset by Northwestern at home in their last game this past Saturday, while the Badgers just defeated Northwestern, 82-76, three days ago.

Michigan State had won nine in a row prior to losing to the Wildcats. Wisconsin is riding a seven-game win streak.

The Badgers are playing extremely well. But the Spartans should never be underestimated. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games against Wisconsin. The Badgers nipped the Spartans, 64-63, at home last season. Michigan State is 7-3-1 ATS versus foes that have a winning percentage above .600.

Both teams give up less than 66 points a game. The Spartans rank 30th in defensive field goal percentage, though, while Wisconsin is 217th.

I see Michigan State winning this game so getting this many points is a nice bonus.

You can look at this SEC battle two ways:

The first way is that Kentucky is the sixth-highest scoring team in the country after burying Tennessee, 107-79, this past Saturday at home. The Wildcats shot a season-best 67.9 percent from the floor and made 20 of 21 free throws.

Then there's the second way you can approach this game, which is to realize Texas A&M gives up 62.9 points a game, which ranks 40th in the country. Kentucky also ranks in the top 50 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Wildcats have held 14 of their last 16 foes to 69 or fewer points.

I'm going with the second way especially with this game at Texas A&M. The Aggies have won eight in a row. They held their last two opponents - Mississippi and Missouri - to a combined average of 57.5 points.

I find this total inflated due to the Wildcats putting up 107 points on the Volunteers.

Utah State has gone Under in four of its last five games. Now the Aggies take on Fresno State, which gives up the fifth-fewest points in the nation at 56.6. The Bulldogs also rank 39th in defensive field goal percentage. The Aggies remain without Brock Miller, their fourth-leading scorer. 

Fresno State, though, ranks 286th in scoring. Utah State is a strong defensive rebounding team and a top-100 team in defensive efficiency. The tempo should be slow here. The Under has cashed in six of Fresno State's last eight home contests.

As the Big Ten season winds into mid-January defenses start getting more intense. Teams make that extra pass. Play slows down. That's the vision I have in this marquee Big Ten battle between 13th-ranked Wisconsin and 16th-ranked Ohio State. I don't see either team reaching 70 points. Therefore I believe this total has been set too high. 

Ohio State beat the Badgers, 73-55, at home on Dec. 11. That game fell six points below the closing total of 134. Since then, Wisconsin has put together its best basketball winning five in a row. 

The Badgers have momentum and revenge. That's a tough combination. Wisconsin won't have a minus 21 rebounding line against the Buckeyes this time around either. Ohio State managed only 51 points against Indiana in its last road game a week ago. 

But Wisconsin's offense can't be trusted. Aside from Johnny Davis, the Badgers don't have many reliable scorers. The Badgers have major offensive inconsistencies. They are at their best scoring inside. Ohio State, though, protects the rim well. The Buckeyes average 5.2 blocks. The Badgers are a terrible 3-point shooting team ranking 322nd making fewer than 30 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. 

Discounting their last game against Northwestern, the Buckeyes have held their last four Big Ten opponents to an average of 64.5 points. 

Marquette isn't as bad as it looked early in the Big East Conference, but the Golden Eagles aren't as good as their recent performances - blowout victories against Georgetown and Providence - may indicate.

On the flip side, DePaul isn't as bad as its four-game losing streak may appear. The Blue Demons have lost their last two games to Villanova and St. John's. Certainly no shame in that.

Overall, DePaul is 9-5 while Marquette is 10-6.

So there's line value with DePaul. The Blue Demons also match up well to Marquette because of their height and superior rebounding. The Golden Eagles give up a lot of easy inside shots. The Blue Demons are the 17th-best offensive rebounding team in the nation.

The Golden Eagles can't get anything going in transition without controlling the boards.

Marquette hasn't been good as chalk either, failing to cover 13 of the last 18 times when favored.

Northern Iowa has looked good in its last two games, blowout victories against Evansville and Valparaiso.

The Panthers have the outside shooting, especially from 3-point range, to hang tight with high-scoring Missouri State, which has a below average 3-point defense.

Northern Iowa has dominated the series winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including six of the past seven.

The Panthers have the frontcourt size to win the rebounding battle, which would prove pivotal.

Butler is being too undervalued here after looking bad during the second half of its, 71-56, home loss to Seton Hall this past Tuesday.

The 'dog has covered four of the past five times in this series.

Xavier has to deal with a rust factor having not played since Dec. 21. Butler is the 31st-ranked defensive team in the country.

This figures to be a low-possession type game where every point matters. That's evident by the low total. I can't see Xavier producing an ''A'' game, which will be needed to cover this mispriced point spread.

The dynamics are in place for Indiana to beat Ohio State in this marquee Big Ten matchup.

The Hooisers are home following a 61-58 road loss to Penn State this past Sunday. Indiana is 9-0 at Assembly Hall with seven of those victories occurring by double-digits.

Ohio State got past Nebraska, 87-79, in overtime this past Sunday. That was the Buckeyes' first game since Dec. 11 because of COVID-19 issues. Indiana is a bad matchup for Ohio State at this stage of the Buckeyes' season as they try to round back into shape.

Indiana has a size advantage and should control the boards especially if Kyle Young, the Buckeyes' top defensive rebounder, can't play after missing the Nebraska game due to illness not related to COVID.

The season-long defensive statistics are bad for these two teams. But there is more than meets the eye. 

Eastern Michigan is averaging just 57.5 points in its last two games decided in regulation. The Eagles are playing at a much slower tempo than they were at the beginning of the season. 

Western Michigan is averaging only 57.6 points during its past six games. The Broncos' defensive numbers are artificially high because of the number of top offenses they have played, including Iowa, Michigan State and Notre Dame. A slow pace game here is fine by the Broncos. 

Keegan Murray is back to full strength scoring 35 points against Utah State in the Hawkeyes' last game this past Saturday. That's bad news for Southeastern Louisiana and good news for the Over. Murray had been slowed by an ankle injury, which hampered his performance in a loss to Iowa State. 

These are two excellent defenses. The total is this high because Texas Tech ranks 12th in the nation in scoring at 85.4. That is misleading, though, because the Red Raiders have played bad defenses, none of which ranked in the top 75 defensive-wise. Now they take on Tennessee, which allows just 62 points a game and ranks in the top five in defensive efficiency just like last season.

The Red Raiders rank in the top 20 in defensive efficiency, too. This game is part of the Jimmy V. Classic tournament held at Madison Square Garden, which is a notorious venue to college players for its tough scoring backdrop.

A battle of two mediocre Big Sky Conference teams isn't going to excite too many people. I rate Idaho State the better team plus the Bengals are home. So I find value in backing Idaho State at this short number. That makes this game worthwhile, at least, for me. 

Idaho State was picked to finish sixth in the Big Sky. Portland State was chosen to finish seven in conference by the coaches and eighth by the media. This helps reinforce my belief that Idaho State is the superior team. 

The Bengals went 8-6 in the Big Sky last season. Portland State went 6-8. Idaho State won the lone matchup last season beating the Vikings, 64-57, on the road. 
The Vikings are in transition with a new coach, Jase Coburn, and only one returning starter from last season. The Vikings are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country ranking 356h. 

Miami ranks 340th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage at 27.1 percent. The Hurricanes are going to have problems going against Penn State's physical defense especially if they can't hit from long range to loosen that pressure.

Penn State doesn't score that much - ranking 250th - because the Nittany Lions like to milk the clock. That's been a noticeable trademark of new coach Micah Shrewsberry. Only six teams play at a slower tempo than Penn State.

The Nittany Lions held LSU to 58 points in regulation during their last game. That was 23 points under the Tigers' season scoring average.

I'm surprised at this low point spread. Detroit is 0-5 and one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Northeastern gives up 19 fewer points per game than Detroit.

The Huskies are 3-4. This is only their second home game of the season. Detroit is their easiest opponent so far.

The Titans lost, 98-84, to Hofstra in their last game this past Saturday. The Titans shot 51 percent from the floor and still lost by 14! That tells you how bad Detroit is.

I would feel confident laying double-digits with Northeastern against this foe. So this is a bargain price.

The Wildcats are a high scoring team that is showing signs under new coach Tommy Lloyd of playing even faster than last season. 

Rio Grande has a new coach, too, Matt Figgers. He's an offensive guru. Rio Grande doesn't play good defense. Rio Grande is going to play at Arizona's pace and try to match the Wildcats' scoring.

Fast tempo and two strong offensive teams make this total an overreaction to Arizona going Under in its first game against pathetic Northern Arizona after the total was steamed up. This is an overreaction by the oddsmaker opening this total too low. 

The two teams have opened their respective seasons each of the past two years playing each other. Arizona scored 96 and 91 points in those games. The combined totals were 149 and 143. I don't see why this matchup doesn't fall into that range either especially with Tommy Lloyd taking over from Sean Miller at Arizona.

The Wildcats are loaded again and Lloyd wants to play fast. Lloyd is used to high-scoring efforts having been a long-time assistant to Mark Few at Gonzaga.

Northern Arizona has no choice, but to push tempo. It has the players to do that. The Lumberjacks won't be afraid to take 3-pointers either.

Before Baylor had to pause its season for three weeks due to COVID-19 back in early February, the Bears were right up there with Gonzaga as the best team in the country. I wouldn't put Baylor back in that super elite class where only Gonzaga resides. But I would the Bears at their own Tier 2 level, a class above Houston. 

There's enough value for me now to take the Over. I understand Michigan is a strong defensive team and UCLA has stepped up defensively. But in analyzing this matchup there are certain elements that lead me to getting involved with the high side. 

It takes some luck to reach the Elite Eight. It's very difficult to produce an A game in every pressure-packed matchup. Arkansas got away with that against Oral Roberts in its last   game. I'm expecting the Razorbacks to play much better against Baylor, which hasn't been the dominant team it was earlier in the season before having to sit out games because of COVID-19 protocols. I consider Baylor closer to the rest of the remaining teams rather than sitting on the top perch alongside Gonzaga. 

USC reached this point by beating Drake and Kansas holding those two worthy opponents to a combined 29.2 percent shooting from the floor. It was a combination of outstanding Trojans defense and poor shooting by the Bulldogs and Jayhawks. 

There's only one way to look at this game - and it's not backing the Mountain West Conference team, Boise State. 

The last meeting between Oklahoma State-Texas occurred on Feb. 6. The game went into double overtime - and still went Under - with Oklahoma State winning, 75-67, for a combined 142 points. 

Kudos to Georgetown for upsetting Villanova on Thursday, 72-71, on a pair of free throws by Dante Harris with 4.7 seconds left. But now the Hoyas have to play a third straight day having also upset Marquette two days ago. Georgetown faces a refreshed and rejuvenated Seton Hall squad. The Pirates knocked off St. John's on Thursday. The Pirates' last played six days ago before defeating the Red Storm.  

This is the spot where Nebraska really is going to miss its leading scorer and star player, Teddy Allen, who decided not to finish the season. Penn State scores more points and gives up fewer points than Nebraska. That's why the Nittany Lions are mid-sized favorites in this first round Big Ten Conference matchup being played at neutral site Indianapolis.

If you're going to have a college basketball coaching controversy don't have it happen right before conference tournament time. Unfortunately for Creighton that's what's going on now with its program. 

I have this matchup power-rated considerably higher, so high that it merits my strongest Sun Belt Conference play of the season. 

Oklahoma State is playing extremely well winning five in a row, including three straight versus ranked opponents during this span. 

Northwestern has yet to win in 2021 and I certainly don't expect the Wildcats to end that streak at Minnesota. 

It has been a disappointing season for McNeese State. But the Cowboys can gain a measure of self-respect in this revenge spot against Southeast Louisiana, a team they lost to, 92-88, on Jan. 20. 

I would be surprised to see California Baptist upset Grand Canyon straight-up. The Lancers are the 18th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 81.9 points a game.

Wisconsin is 15-7. The Badgers win with defense. Only 20 teams surrender fewer points per game than the Badgers.

This is an excellent Horizon League matchup. Detroit has won seven of its last eight games, while Cleveland State leads the Horizon League.  I'm expecting far more offense than the oddsmaker is projecting.  Detroit averages 75.8 points. That number goes up to 80.5 points if you take just the last six games. The Titans win with offense. They are a bad defensive team. The Titans also have a strong history of going Over in away games. The Over is 18-7-1 in the Titans' last 26 road matchups.  Cleveland State is averaging 76.8 points in its last four games. The Vikings face a Detroit defense that ranks 277th in points allowed at 74.7, is 289th in defensive field goal percentage and 326th in 3-point defense. Opponents have dented the Titans' defense for 72 or more points in nine of the past 12 games.  The Vikings have gone Over in eight of their last 10 home games, too.