Play on any NFL home underdog in Game 9 of the season or beyond that allows between 335 to 370 yards per game to the opposition, versus an opponent that averages 370 or more yards per game of total offense is 56-24 ATS (70.0%) since 1983. Play on the Tennessee Titans as a 25* Top Play selection.

Everything points to this game being a low scoring affair. lets face it you have one of the worst offenses statistically in the NFL with the Cleveland Browns. The Browns also feature one of the best pass defenses statistically in the NFL. The latter may be the most misleading statistic of them all considering Cleveland also is statistically one of the worst in the NFL at stopping the run. Pittsburgh has traditionally over the last 10 seasons been a very profitable play when playing over the total when they are installed as a home favorite. If it looks to easy it normally isn't.

Any home team playing in Game 9 of the season or beyond that has covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, and they have a winning percentage of .750 or better has gone over the total in 38 of those 48 (82.6%) games since 2006. Play on this game to go over the total as a 25* Top Play selection.

Any Monday night pick or favorite versus an opponent that has lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games straight up is 40-14 ATS since 1983.

Any road favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less playing in weeks 10 through 13 of the season, versus an opponent that has lost 8 or more of their last 10 games straight up is 25-3 ATS since 1983. Play on the San Diego Chargers minus the points as a 50* Top Play selection.

Detroit

The Cowboys have won four straight, but they

Tampa Bay's defense has struggled mightily all season. The Bucs are 28th in pass defense, 29th in points allowed, 30th in run defense and 31st in yards surrendered. Carolina has totaled more than 100 yards rushing in nine straight games. That trend will continue in this contest in addition to opening up the passing game for quarterback Cam Newton and wide receiver Steve Smith. Regardless of their 3-8 record and last-place tag in the NFC South, the Panthers have a bright offense led by Newton's 3093 passing yards and 12 touchdowns. Newton also has 464 rushing yards and has scored 10 touchdowns himself via the ground. In spite of all the turnovers this season the Tampa offense has respectable offensive numbers. They are 12th in passing (238.5 ypg) and 15th in total offense (340.2 ypg). The Tampa Bay defense hasn't been exactly world beaters this season ranking next to last in scoring (27.7 PPG) and 24th in total defense (370.1 YPG). Both teams will be loose with no playoff implications on the line. This has all the ear marks of an entertaining high scoring affair. play on this game to go over the total as a 50* top Play selection.

Two NFC heavyweights collide when the Saints look for their third win in a row while the Giants try to avoid a third consecutive loss. New York quarterback Eli Manning has thrown four interceptions over the past three weeks, and he

The Patriots roll into Philadelphia with two consecutive lopsided victories, but the desperate Eagles are coming off their biggest win of the year. Vince Young threw for 258 yards and 2 TD, leading the Eagles to a huge win over the Giants in New York Young could get the call again on Sunday as Michael Vick

When these teams met in Week 5, the Broncos trailed by 16 in the fourth quarter, but Tim Tebow (on in relief of Kyle Orton) had them within 29 yards of an offensive score in a 29-24 loss. The Chargers have had issues with assignments and discipline on both sides of the ball, so defending Denver

Chicago goes for its sixth consecutive win when it travels to Oakland, but it won

Any home team that has a better than .500 winning percentage, they're coming off a home game in which both teams scored 24 points or more, and the total in their current game is between 35.5-42.0 has seen 37 of those 49 games (75.5%) go over the total since 1983. Play on this game to go over the total as a 25* Top Play selection.

The Dolphins seek their fourth win in a row when they spend Thanksgiving in Dallas, which comes into the game having won three straight. Miami has three consecutive double-digit wins, beating its opponents by a hefty 86-20 margin over that span. and in the past two years, the Dolphins have played better football on the road than at home where they

Detroit is hoping to end two long streaks on Thanksgiving Day when it hosts Green Bay. The Packers have won 16 straight games and the Lions are 0-7 SU&ATS on the last 7 November holidays. The good news for Detroit is that Green Bay allowed 455 yards of offense to Tampa Bay last week while the Lions hung 49 points on Carolina. Both of these teams have been great over the past two seasons (Green Bay is 20-10 ATS, Detroit is 18-6 ATS), and the Lions are a stellar 14-5 ATS against NFC teams over this same span. My professional experience has shown when two hot ATS teams like this collide the definite advantage goes to the underdog, and even more some if they are a home underdog. Play on Detroit plus the points as a 50* Top play selection.

Although San Diego has lost four straight games, it got an extra three days of rest after a Thursday night defeat to Oakland. Chicago

Cincinnati will play the second of four straight divisional games when it travels to Baltimore. Last week, the Ravens looked bad in a 22-17 loss to 2-6 Seattle, while the Bengals played pretty well, but also fell to Pittsburgh. This marked their first defeat since late September, ending a five game win streak (Straight-Up and Against The Spread). Cincinnati

This total opened at 42.5 and has fallen down to 40.0. I understand the reputation the Jets carry on defense, I also understand the Broncos threw just 8 passes last week while completing just 2, and I also know the books can't possible be this far off when setting this number. Let us not forget the Broncos are #29 out of 32 NFL teams in scoring defense.

Denver has gone over the total in their last 9 home games when the total is 46.5 or less. The Jets have gone over the total is 16 of their last 19 on the road including the last 11 when the total is 42.5 or less. Play on over the total as a 25* Top Play selection.

Any division away underdog of 8.5 or less that's coming off BB home SU favorite losses, they failed to cover their previous game by 8.0 or more, they are playing in Game 4 of the season or beyond,, and they are facing an opponent that has a winning percentage of less than .666 is 10-0 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 5 of those 10 games outright.

Any away underdog of 8.5 or less playing in Game 5 of the season or beyond, they are coming off BB home favorite SU losses, they failed to cover the both of their previous games by 10.0 or more, and they are facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .500 or better is 10-0 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 6 of those 10 games outright.

Any division home favorite that's coming odd a home underdog ATS loss, versus an opponent that's coming off a home favorite SU loss is 0-6 SU&ATS since 1983. The underdog has won all 6 of those games outright by an average of 15.0 PPG.

The Chargers are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog including winning 16 of the 30 outright. If they are an underdog coming off a division game the number improves to 8-0 ATS in the last 8 with the Lightning Bolts winning 6 of the 8 outright.

Any home underdog with a better than .500 winning percentage, they are coming off a division away favorite SU loss, versus an opponent with a better than .500 winning percentage, and they scored 28 points or more in their previous game is 8-0 ATS since 1980. The home underdog has won 5 of those 8 games outright. Play on the San Diego Chargers plus the points as a 25* Top Play selection.

Any favorite of 13.0 or less that's coming off a SU loss as a favorite of 13.0 or more, they have a less than .800 winning percentage, and they're playing in Game 12 of the season or before is 11-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The favorite has won those 11 games by an average of 17.3 PPG.

Any division away underdog of 10.0 or less that's coming off a bye week, their previous game was a non-division underdog ATS loss that they failed to cover by 3.0 or more, and they scored 19 points or less in their previous game is 0-7 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite won those 7 games by an average of 18.4 PPG.

The Saints are 11-0 SU&ATS as a favorite or underdog of 9.0 or less when coming off a SU loss. They have won those 11 games by an average of 16.8 PPG. Play on the New Orleans Saints as my NFL 50* Game of the Week!

Any home underdog of 4.0 or less that's coming off 3 or more SU wins in a row with the previous game coming as an underdog, they're playing in Game 7 of the season or beyond, versus an opponent that has a better than .625 winning percentage is 15-1 ATS since 1981. If the game is being played between teams from the same division then the underdog improves to 6-0 SU&ATS and wins all 6 games outright by an average of 10.3 PPG. Play on the Kansas City Chiefs plus the points as a 25* Top Play selection.

The Seahawks continue to keep up their tradition of being anemic on the road and very respectable at home. That's one thing that Pete Carroll hasn't been able to shake from the franchise from in his 2nd year at the helm. However as a home underdog versus an up and coming team like the Bengals, with a rookie starting quarterback, and having to travel across the country is a very favorable situation for the Seahawks. In addition starting quarterback Tavarus Jackson returns to the lineup after being out with an injury. Although not highly regarded by many around the league Jackson is still a better option than the veteran Charlie Whitehurst. Take the Seattle Seahawks.

Any division home favorite of 4.0 or more versus an opponent that's playing in Game 4 of the season or beyond, and is coming off BB away underdog ATS losses is 5-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite has won those 5 games by an average of 24.8 PPG.

Any division home favorite of 7.5 or more that's coming off a home favorite SU loss, versus an opponent coming off an away underdog ATS loss, and they have a winning percentage of .375 or less is 5-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite has won those 5 games by an average of 30.2 PPG. Play on the Tennessee Titans as a 25* Top Play selection.

Any home underdog of 7.0 or less that's coming off a bye week, their previous game was an away underdog ATS loss, they have a less than .400 winning percentage, and are facing an opponent with a better than .500 winning percentage is 8-0 ATS since 1980. The home underdog won 7 of those 8 games outright.

Any home underdog that's coming off a bye week, they were 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games, they allowed 41 points or less in each of the last 2 games, and they have a winning percentage of .400 or less is 8-0 ATS since 1980. The home underdog won 7 of those 8 games outright.

In addition the Arizona Cardinals are 9-1 ATS and 8-1-1 SU in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 2.0 or more, versus an opponent coming off a SU loss. All of those 10 games occurred on or after 9/16/2007.

Any home favorite that has at least one SU win on the season versus an opponent that's playing with rest, has a winning percentage of less than .562, and they are coming off an away underdog SU win is 6-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The home favorite has won those 6 games by an average of 18.0 PPG.

Any home favorite that's coming off a SU loss by 23 points or less, versus an opponent that's playing with rest in Game 5 of the season or beyond, they're coming off a SU win, and they have a winning percentage of less than .625 is 11-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The home favorite has won those 11 games by an average of 22.2 PPG. Play on the Cleveland Browns minus the small number as my 50* Non-Conference Game of the Month.

The first thing that jumps out at me here is the line movement. The Dolphins opened as a 9.0-point underdog and in spite of better than 70% of public money going the way of the Jets the number has moved to as low as 6.5. The Jets are a money draining 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as a division home favorite of 2.0 or more including losing 5 of the 6 outright. On the other side of the table the Dolphins are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 as an away underdog versus an opponent coming off a SU loss. Miami has won 8 of those 10 games outright.

Any away underdog that's coming off an away underdog ATS loss by 10 points or more, versus an opponent coming off an away underdog ATS loss that they failed to cover by 23.0 or less, and they allowed 14 points or more in their previous game is 51-15 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 35 of those 66 games outright. Play on the Miami Dolphins plus the points as my NFL 50* Monday Night Game of the Month.

Any home favorite that's playing with rest after a home favorite ATS win, they are playing in Game 12 of the season or before, versus an opponent coming off a home favorite SU loss in which they failed to cover by 20.0 or less is 6-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite won those 6 games by an average of 17.0 points per game.

Any home favorite of 7.0 or more that's playing with rest, they are off back to back favorite ATS wins is 9-0 SU&ATS since 1989. The favorite has won those 9 games by an average of 19.6 PPG. Play on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points as my NFL 50* Game of the Week.

The line movement in this game speaks volumes. This line opened at 6.0 and has shrunk to as low as 3.0 at the time of this writing. This all in spite of the majority of public money going on the Chargers. This favorite is the sucker pick of the week. Take the home underdog Denver Broncos!

The 49ers got the ultimate confidence boosting win last week coming from 20 down on the road to defeat Philadelphia 24-23. With a little bit of luck they can be 4-0 with their only loss coming in overtime versus Dallas. This week they take on a very good Tampa team that will have to travel across the country after back to back narrow home wins. Play on the San Francisco 49ers as my 50* NFL game of the Week!

Any Monday night non-division home favorite coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 20.0 or less, and they won 23 or less of their last 32 games is 7-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite has won those 7 games by an average of 20.4 PPG. In addition Tampa is 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or less versus a team off a SU loss winning by an average of 14.4 PPG. Play on Tampa Bay minus the points as a 25* Top Play selection.

Any home team that has won 18 or less of their last 32 games, they're coming off BB SU losses the last came as an away favorite, versus an opponent coming off an away underdog SU win is 9-0 SU&ATS since 1982. The home team has won those 9 games by an average of 11.3 PPG.

Any home pick'em or underdog of 2.0 or less that's coming off an away favorite SU loss, versus an opponent that's coming off BB SU wins, and has a less than .700 winning percentage is 5-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The home team has won those 5 games by an average of 10.0 PPG. In addition Arizona is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 games as a non-division home pick'em or underdog when coming off a SU loss. The Cardinals have won those 5 games by an average of 7.1 PPG. Play on the Arizona Cardinals as a 25* Top Play selection.

Any home favorite or underdog of 2.5 or less that's coming off a non-division home underdog SU win, they've won 10 or more of their last 32 games, they are playing in game 3 of the season or beyond, and they're facing an opponent coming off a SU win is 17-0 SU&ATS since 1984. The home team has won those 17 games by an average of 13.3 PPG. In addition the Titans have dropped 6 road games in a row dating back to last season which takes on more significance considering the point-spread. Play on the Cleveland Browns as my NFL 50* Game of the Week.

Any home favorite or underdog of 2.5 or less that's coming off a Monday night home SU win is 9-0 SU&ATS since 1989. The home team has won those 9 games by an average of 13.2 PPG.

Any non-division home dog or favorite of 3.0 or less that's coming off a division SU win but failed to cover as a home favorite, they've won 21 or less of their last 32 games, they are playing in game 13 of the season or before, versus an opponent that's coming off a division game is 5-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The home team has won those 5 games by an average of 10.2 PPG. Play on the Dallas Cowboys as a 25* Top Play selection.

Any NFL team playing their home opener as a favorite of 5.5 or less that's coming off BB away games, and is facing an opponent coming off BB home games is 0-7 SU&ATS since 1987! The underdog has won all 7 of these games outright by an average of 6.6 PPG. Play on the Washington Redskins plus the points as a 25* Top Play selection.

Any home favorite that's won 12 or more of their last 32 games, they have won 26 or less of their last 32 at home, they're coming off an away underdog SU win in which they won by 20 points or less while scoring 44 points or less, versus an opponent that comes off a home underdog SU win in which they allowed 6 points or more is 36-1 SU since 1984. With such a small number to cover here the SU statistic takes on added significance. However if you must know the favorite is also 28-9 ATS in those 37 games.

Any division home favorite of 3.5 or less that's coming off a non-division away underdog SU win, versus an opponent coming off a non-division SU underdog win is 9-0 SU&ATS since 1985. The favorite has won those 9 games by an average of 11.2 PPG.

Any home underdog of 6.0 or less that's coming off a SU loss in which they allowed 27 or more points, they've won 17 or less of their last 32 games, have won 21 or more of their last 32 at home, versus an opponent off a SU win by 5 points or more while scoring 19 points or more is 14-0 ATS since 1989. The underdog has won 13 of those 14 games outright. Play on the Chicago Bears plus the points as my NFL 25* Shocker of the Week!

Any home underdog of 5.5 or less that's playing in Game 13 of the season or before, they're coming off a home favorite SU loss in which they failed to cover by 22.0 or less, they've won 15 or more of their last 32 games, and are facing an opponent coming off a home favorite ATS win is 11-0 ATS since 1984. The underdog has won 10 of those 11 games outright. Play on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points as a 25* Top Play selection.

Any Monday night non-division home favorite that's coming off a division game in which they allowed 10 or more points versus an opponent that's coming off a SU&ATS loss is 22-2 SU&ATS since 1980. If we tighten this system up to the a home favorite of 6.0 or more it improves to 12-0 SU&ATS and wins by an average of 16.3 PPG. Play on the New York Giants minus the points as a 25* Top Play selection.

Any away favorite of 4.0 or less that's coming off a SU loss by 10 points or less, versus an opponent that comes off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 16.5 or less is 13-0 SU&ATS since 1985. Play on the Dallas Cowboys as a 25* Executive Line Top Play.

Any home favorite of 5.0 or more that's coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they allowed 34 points or more, they've won 13 or more of their last 32 games, versus an opponent off a home underdog ATS win by 23 points or more is 12-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite has won those 12 games by an average of 18.1 PPG.

Any home favorite of 5.0 or more that's playing in game 2 of the season versus an opponent that's coming off a home underdog SU win in which they covered by 8.0 or more is 9-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The favorite has won those 9 games by an average of 17.5 PPG. Play on the New Orleans Saints minus the points my 50* "NFL Game of the Week".

Any non-division away underdog of 4.5 or less that's coming off a SU win by 12 points or less, they're facing an opponent that's coming off a home underdog SU win, and they've won 23 or less of their last 32 games is 7-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The underdog has won all 7 of those games outright by an average of 10.6 PPG. Play on the Arizona Cardinals plus the points as my 25* NFL Underdog Game of the Week.

Oakland @ Denver 10:15 PM ET
Play On: Oakland +3.5 (25*)

The Raiders are a perfect 7-0 ATS including 6-1 SU in their last 7 games as a division underdog. The Broncos are a brutal 5-24 ATS in their last 29 as a home favorite including 1-11 ATS in their last 12 as a division home favorite. Is John Fox a better head coach than Josh McDaniel will ever be and the answer is an emphatic yes. However that doesn't erase the stigma that the Broncos need to overcome as a home favorite especially versus an opponent that absolutely hammered them in both games last season.

Any opening week home favorite of 5.5 or less that won 5 games or less in the previous season is 0-6 ATS since 1980. The Underdog has won 5 of those 6 games outright. Play on the Oakland Raiders plus the points as a 25* Top Play selection.

Dallas @ NY Jets 8:30 PM ET
Play On: NY Jets -4.0 (50*)

Any home favorite of 14.5 or less that's playing their opening game of the season who won 13 or more games last season, they are facing an opponent that won 6 games or less last season, and 20 or 20 or less of their last 32 games is 9-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite has won those 9 games by an average of 19.9 PPG. Play on the New York Jets minus the points as my 50* NFL Game of the Week.

Seattle @ San Francisco 4:15 PM ET
Play On: San Francisco -5.5 (25*)

The Seahawks are 2-15 SU&ATS in their last 17 games as an away underdog including 1-12 SU&ATS in the last 13 if they are an underdog of 4.5 or more. The 49ers are 6-0 SU&5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a division home favorite including 3-0 SU&ATS if they are a favorite of 5.0 or more. The average margin of victory in those 3 games was 28.3 PPG.

Any division home favorite of 5.0 or more in the opening game of the season that won 6 games or less last season, they have won 12 or more of their last 32 games, and they are facing an opponent that won 3 or more games last season is 5-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite has won those 5 games by an average of 15.6 PPG. Play on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points as a 25* Top Play.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore 1;00 PM ET
Play On: Baltimore -1.0 (25*)

Any division home favorite of 3.0 or less that's playing in their season opener who won 9 or more games last season is 14-0 SU&ATS since 1987. The favorite has won those 14 games by an average of 11.1 PPG. Play on the Baltimore Ravens as a 25* Top Play.

New Orleans @ Green Bay 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Under 48.0 (25*)

Any NFL opening game home team that won 10 or more games last season, versus an opponent that also won 10 or more games last season, and the total is 46.5 or more has gone under the total in 11 of the 12 games that situation has occurred since 1980. Play on this game to go under the total as a 25* Top Play selection.

Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh 6:30 PM EST
Play On: Under 45.5 (508)

The foundation behind both of these defenses is the defensive coordinators. Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau is widely acclaimed as the best defensive coordinator in the game. Year after year the Steelers are atop of the league statistically in all defensive categories. This season is no different as the Steelers were ranked #2 in total defense during the NFL regular season. In addition both the Jets and the Ravens were unable to do much of anything in the two Steelers playoff victories. As a matter of fact the Ravens only massed 124 yards of total offense in Pittsburgh's opening playoff victory. The Jets gained over 25% of their total offense on their last offensive possession of the game.

The Green Bay Packers have a pretty good defensive coordinator in their own right in Dom Capers. Capers may have done his best coaching job of his career this year. The Packers sustained numerous injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but it seemed no matter who they plugged in the unit didn't miss a beat. Green Bay finished the season ranked #5 in total defense in the entire league. Much in part to the defense the Packers finished the season a +18 in turnover differential. Green Bay has gone under the total in 9 of 11 games played away from Lambeau Field this season.

Play on this game to go under the total as a 50* selection.

Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh 6:30 PM EST
Play On: Green Bay -3.0 (25*)

The Packers have been playoff football for more than just their last 3 games as they were in must win situations in virtually the last 4 weeks of the regular season just to qualify. Green Bay has taken the tougher road to reach the pinnacle game by winning three straight playoff games on the road all in impressive and for the most part dominating fashion. Their offense could have have been considered up until the last couple weeks of the regular season. Then enter rookie free agent running back James Starks out of the University of Buffalo and all of a sudden this offense has became more balanced and even more dangerous. The most underrated part of the Packers championship run has been their defense. The Packers are an outstanding +18 in turnover differential this season.

The Steelers had some question marks on the offensive line down the stretch and without their all pro rookie center Pouncey on Sunday they will be exposed by an aggressive Packers front 7. Look for the Packers defense to create at least 3 turnovers in this contest that will be critical to the outcome of the contest. Pittsburgh had to come back from 13 down at the half at home versus Baltimore in their first playoff game and two weeks ago had to hang on at home after a late Jets rally. The luck runs out here. The hotter team that's peaking at the right time comes out on top here. Play on the Green Bay Packers and lay the small number for a 25* Executive Line selection.

NY Jets @ New England 4:30 PM EST
Play On: NY Jets +9.0 (25*)

Everybody seems to be alluding to the 45-3 shellacking that the Patriots laid on the Jets in Foxboro in the first week of December. The Jets were a -4 in turnover differential in that game and had to abandon their potent running attack early on because of the large deficit. This is a Jets team that's actually been pretty good on the road under Rex Ryan in spite of that dismal performance. New York has gone 7-2 SU on the road this season and is 12-3 SU in their last 15 in enemy territory. There's no doubt the Patriots have been awfully impressive this season especially coming down the stretch. However the line in that 12/6/2010 contest versus the Jets in Foxboro saw the home team as just a 4.0 point favorite. In a space of 6 weeks the oddsmakers in anticipation of public money going the way of New England jacked this up by almost a touchdown. At the end of the day the Jets have a good enough running game and defense to take this contest right down to the wire.

Any road team revenging a same season loss in which they scored 9 points or less, they have a better than .500 winning percentage, versus an opponent with a better than .500 winning percentage is 25-5 ATS since the start of the 2001-2002 season.

Any road team revenging a same season loss by 14 or more points, versus an opponent that has a winning percentage of better than .500 is 29-4 ATS since the start of the 2005-2006 season.

Seattle @ Chicago 1:00 PM EST
Play On: Chicago -10.0 (50*)

Seattle is a miserable 0-9 SU&ATS in its last 9 games as a road underdog of 7.0 or more. The first game in that 9 game stretch happened on 11/27/2008, so we are not talking about an outdated team trend. Seattle lost those 9 games by an average of 21.4 PPG. What's even more compelling is the fact that Seattle is 0-13 SU&ATS in their last 13 games on the road following a SU win dating back to 12/16/2007.

Any playoff away underdog that's coming off a playoff home underdog SU win is 0-9 SU&ATS since 1982. The Favorite has won those 9 games by an average of 19.7 PPG. Play on the Chicago Bears minus the points as my 50* Divisional Playoff Game of the Year.

Green Bay @ Atlanta 8:00 PM EST
Play On: Atlanta -2.5 (25*)

The Falcons are 20-2 at home with Matt Ryan as their starting quarterback. You can't undervalue that fact considering the low number we are being asked to cover. The general public has fallen in love with the Packers and have adopted them as their postseason cinderella. Lets not lose sight of the fact that Atlanta earned the #1 seed in the NFC and feels a bit slighted in terms of the lack of respect coming their way. The Falcons lost one game at home this season coming at the hands of New Orleans 17-14. In that contest star running back Michael Turner fumbled at the 1-yard line of New Orleans. It was his first lost fumble over his past 365 touches. There will be no flukes here. Play on Atlanta minus the small number as a 25* Executive Line selection.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh 4:30 PM EST
Play On: Over 37.0 (25*)

The Steelers have gone over the total in their last 9 postseason home games. Pittsburgh has also gone over the total in 17 of their last 20 as a division home favorite with a total of 35.0 or more. The Ravens have gone over the total in 7 of their last 8 as a division away underdog. This game will be billed as a tight defensive struggle. Although this may not come under the heading of an offensive shootout there will be enough points scored to go over this low number. Both defenses are notorious for not only scoring points on their own, but also are adept at creating turnovers that provide their offenses a short field to work with. Play on this game to go over the total as a 25* Executive Line selection.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia 4:30 PM EST
Play On: Philadelphia -2.5 (50*)

Any team that's a favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less that's coming off a SU loss, versus an opponent that allowed 6 points or less in their previous game is 26-4 ATS since 1983.

Ant team that's a favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less that's coming off a SU loss by 6 points or less, versus an opponent that's coming off of a game that they allowed 6 points or less is 36-12 ATS since 1983.

Any team that's playing with same season revenge in Game 9 of the season or beyond, and both teams in this contest have a winning percentage of between .600-.750 is 26-5 ATS since the start of the 2001 season.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles as my 50* Executive Line Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year.

Baltimore @ Kansas City 1:00 PM EST
Play On: Under 41.0 (25*)

The Chiefs have gone under the total in their last 7 games when their opponent had 75 yards or more rushing than they did in their previous game. The average total score in those 7 games was 29.5 PPG and they all happened with Todd Haley as their head coach. Baltimore has gone under the total in 8 of their last 9 games after covering 2 of their last 3 games with an average total score of 35.1 PPG.

Any game with a total of between 35.5-42.0 where both teams are averaging 1.25 turnovers or less per game, has seen 24 of those 30 contests go under the total since the start of the 2001 season. Play on this game to go under the total as a 25* Executive Line selection.

NY Jets @ Indianapolis 8:00 PM EST
Play On: Play On: Over 44.5 (25*)

The Jets have gone over the total in all 8 road games this season with an average total score of 49.7 PPG. New York was installed as an underdog 6 times this year and each of those contests went over the total with an average total score of 50.0 PPG. The Jets have gone over the total in their last 10 games versus teams that allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their pass attempts on the season. Since Rex Ryan has taken over as head coach of the Jets they have gone over the total in 12 of the 14 games when they are a favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less. Since Jim Caldwell has been the head coach of the Colts they have gone over the total in all 6 games versus teams from the AFC East with an average total score of 51.0 PPG. Play on over the total as a 25* selection.

New Orleans @ Seattle 4:30 PM EST
Play On: Seattle +11.0 (25*)

The Seahawks are 14-1 SU in their last 15 home games when coming off a SU win by 20 points or less. The saints are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as an away favorite. The betting public will be and has been all over the Saints in this contest yet there has been very little if any line movement. If it looks to easy it usually isn't and that will be the case here.

Any playoff home underdog versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .666 or less is 8-1 SU&ATS since 1980.

Any home underdog of 3.5 or more that's coming off of a home underdog SU win, they have won 9 or more of their last 32 home games, they have a less than .500 winning percentage, versus an opponent coming off a SU loss is 11-0 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 8 of those 11 games outright.

Any team that's coming off of 5 games in a row in which they created 1 turnover or less, versus an opponents that committed 3 or more turnovers in their previous game is 34-11 ATS since 1983.

Play on Seattle plus the points as a 25* Executive Line selection.

St. Louis @ Seattle 8:25 PM EST
Play On: St. Louis -3.0 (25*)

Someone has to win this division and it might as well be the young Rams. Seattle has been just horrible in the second half of the season. The Rams continue to improve and have been very competitive every week. At one time Seattle at home, especially as an underdog, versus a poor road team would've been a no brainer. That's no longer the case.

Any road team that had 75 yards or less rushing in their previous game, they average between 95-125 yards rushing per game, versus an opponent that allows between 95-125 yards rushing per game is 29-6 ATS since 2001. Play on St. Louis minus the points as a 25* selection.

Chicago @ Green Bay 4:15 PM EST
Play On: Chicago +10.0 (25*)

Just because one team needs to win to make the playoffs, and the other may rest starters because they are locked into a playoff spot in addition to clinching a first round bye, doesn't mean the game will be a lock for the Packers. The Bears will be very competitive and play with pride.

Any underdog of between 3.5-10.0 that went over the total by 28 points or more in their previous game is 33-10 ATS since 2001. Play on the Chicago Bears plus the points as a 25* selection.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans 1:00 PM EST
Play On: Tampa Bay +9.0 (25*)

Tampa Bay has relished the role of the road underdog this season going a perfect 6-0 ATS so far. Don't expect this young team on the rise just to lay down in their final game because they're no longer alive for a playoff berth. They were embarrassed in the first meeting with New Orleans, and will have that extra incentive in this contest. Besides with a head coach like Raheem Morris he will not tolerate less than 100% effort. The Saints are pretty much locked into the #5 seed in the NFC unless lowly Carolina can knock off Atlanta which is very highly unlikely.

Any road team with a better than .500 winning percentage, they are playing with same season revenge from a game they lost by 14 points or more is 28-4 ATS since the start of the 2001 season. Play on Tampa Bay plus the points as a 25* Executive Line selection.

Carolina @ Atlanta 1:00 PM EST
Play On: Under 41.5 (50*)

Any road team that averages 150 yards or less passing per game, versus an opponent that allows between 230-265 yards passing per game, and they are playing in game 9 of the season or beyond has seen 24 of those 29 games go under the total since 1983. Play on this game to go under the total as my NFC 50* Total of the Year!

NY Giants @ Green Bay 4:15 PM EST
Play On: Over 43.0 (50*)

Any home team playing in December that's coming off a road SU loss but ATS win has gone over the total 40 of the last 55 times since the start of the 2006 season.

Any team that's covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, and has a better than .500 winning percentage has gone over the total 74 of the last 110 times since the start of the 2006 season. Play on this game to go over the total as a 50* selection.

San Diego @ Cincinnati 4:05 PM EST
Play On: San Diego -8.0 (25*)

The Chargers have no room for error and as usual are coming on like gangbusters down the stretch. Under Norv Turner San Diego is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games over the last 4 weeks of the regular season. The Bengals have been the poster team for underachievers this season. They continually shoot themselves in the foot and find ways to lose. The Chargers will want to leave themselves no doubt assuring that they hae a chance at the AFC West crown headed into the last week of the regular season. The Bengals are just 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games versus a conference opponent. Play on San Diego minus the points as a 25* selection.

Washington @ Jacksonville 1:00 PM EST
Play On: Washington +7.0 (50*)

Any away underdog of between 3.5-10.0 that has a less than .500 winning percentage, versus an opponent that's won 2 of their last 3 games is 25-5 ATS since the start of the 2001 season.

Any road underdog off an away underdog ATS win but SU loss, they have a less than .500 winning percentage, and are playing in Game 9 of the season or beyond is 28-9 ATS since the start of the 2001 season. Play on Washington plus the points as a 25* Executive Line selection.

Atlanta @ Seattle 4:05 PM EST
Play On: Seattle +6.0 (50*)

Any home pick or underdog in the month of December that's coming off a road SU loss by 14 points or more is 68-31 ATS (68.7%) since 1983. Play on Seattle plus the points as my 50* Underdog Game of the Week.

Atlanta @ Carolina 1:00 PM EST
Play On: Over 42.5 (25*)

The Falcons have gone over the total in 9 of their last 10 conference road games. The Panthers have gone over the total in 8 of their last 10 since 11/30/2008 following a game they allowed 30 points or more.

Any home team that's coming off of 7 or more SU losses in a row, versus an opponent coming off of 2 or more SU wins in a row has gone over the total in 42 of those 56 games since 1983. If the total in that situation is 41.5 or more then the ATS statistic improves to 15 of 17 over since 1983. If the home team scored 23 points or less in that previous game then all 10 games since 1983 have gone over the total with an average combined score of 55.8 PPG. Play on this game to go over the total as my NFL 25* Executive Line Total of the Month.

Tampa Bay @ Washington 1:00 PM EST
Play On: Washington +30 (-135) (25*)

Any regular season home pick or underdog of 3.0 or less that's coming off of an away SU loss by 14 points or more, they are playing in Game 12 or beyond, they have a better than .333 winning percentage, is 24-2 ATS since 1981. Play on the Washington Redskins as a 25* Executive Line selection.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee 8:20 PM EST
Play On: Tennessee +4.0 (25*)

Any division home underdog of 4.5 or less with a winning percentage of .400 or more, versus an opponent coming off of BB home favorite SU losses is 5-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The underdog has won all 5 of those games outright by an average of 10.9 PPG.

Any underdog that was outrushed by 100 yards or more in their previous game, versus an opponent that has rushed for less than 100 yards in their last 3 games is 34-10 ATS since 1983. Play on Tennessee plus the points as a 25* Executive Line selection.

NY Jets @ New England 8:35 PM EST
Play On: New England -3.5 (50*)

Under Bill Belichek the Patriots are a perfect 10-0 SU&ATS in their last 10 division games playing with revenge in Game 3 of the season or beyond. New England has won those 10 games by an average of 16.8 PPG. This is a statement game for a proud New England franchise, especially playing at home, and versus a brash divisional opponent who quite frankly is very lucky to have the record they have.

Any Monday home favorite of 5.0 or less that's coming off of BB SU wins, they have a winning percentage of .600 or better, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .300 or better is 28-5 ATS since 1980. Play on the New England Patriots as a 50* selection.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore 8:25 PM EST
Play On: Baltimore -3.0 (25*)

The Ravens have won 8 straight at home and with this small of a number to cover I can't discount that as a relative factor. The Ravens have also defeated the Steelers in 6 of their last 7 when playing at home. With "Big Ben" not 100% and some issues on the offensive line the Baltimore defense will be the deciding factor in this one. Play on the Baltimore Ravens as a 25* Executive Line selection.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay 4:15 PM EST
Play On: Atlanta -3.0 (25*)

The Bucs are a nice feel good story. However Atlanta has been playing lights out and will show they are the superior team in this contest and make Tampa coach Raheem Morris eat his words about being the best team in the NFC. Play on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points as a 25* Executive Line selection.

Denver @ Kansas City 1:00 PM EST
Play On: Kansas City -8.0 (50*)

Any home favorite that's coming off of an away underdog SU win in which they covered by 15.0 or more, they scored 34 points or more in their previous game, they are playing in Game 6 or beyond, versus an opponent that's coming off of a SU favorite loss, and has a winning percentage of less than .454 is 7-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite has won those 7 games by an average of 19.4 PPG.

Any division home favorite that's coming off of an away underdog SU win in which they scored 40 points or more, they are playing in Game 6 or beyond, they have a winning percentage of better than .571, and they covered their previous game by 17.0 or more is 8-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite has won those 8 games by 16.4 PPG. Play on the Kansas City Chiefs as my NFL 50* Revenge Game of the Year.

Houston @ Philadelphia 8:20 PM EST
Play On: Philadelphia -8.0 (50*)

Any non-division home favorite of 3.0 or more that has a winning percentage of .600 or better, versus an opponent coming off of a home favorite ATS win in which they shut out their opponent is 14-0 SU&ATS since 1984. The favorite has won those 14 games by an average of 18.9 PPG.

Any home favorite of 9.5 or less that's coming off of an away favorite SU loss in which they scored 24 points or more, they are playing in Game 6 of the season or beyond, they have a winning percentage of .385 or better, versus an opponent off a SU&ATS win is 16-1 SU&ATS since 1981. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points as a 50* Executive Line selection.

Tampa Bay @ Baltimore 4:15 PM EST
play On: Tampa Bay +7.5 (25*)

This line opened at 9.0 and in spite of the majority of pointspread money going the way of the Ravens it has plummeted down to 7.5. There is a lot of sharp money going the way of a Tampa team that continues to improve every week. Under head coach Rasheem Morris Tampa is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as an away underdog and has won 6 of those 7 outright. Make no mistake the Ravens are still one of the best team in the AFC but haven't been as dominant as some of the experts predicted. Quarterback Joe Flacco has had far from a stellar season and has been carried by a strong defense and running game. The value is on the underdog in this spot. Play on Tampa Bay plus the points as a 25* Executive Line selection.

Kansas City @ Seattle 4:05 PM EST
Play On: Seattle +2.5 (50*)

The general public has fallen in love with the resurgent Chiefs and are pounding them in this game. Kansas City is the sexier team with all their young talent and speed. However the fact remains they are 0-4 SU on the road this season and only 2-14 SU in their last 16 non-division away games. That's hardly the formula for value in an away favorite. Contrarily the Seahawks are 3-1 SU at home this season with their only loss coming to the Giants with Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback. When Matt Hasselback is healthy and starting Seattle has always been a tough out at home. Seattle is 47-19 SU in their last 66 home games. if you take away the 2008 season in which Hasselback went down for the season with an injury that number improved to 45-13 SU in the last 58 in the Pacific Northwest. Now that's definitely the formula for value in a home underdog. Play on Seattle plus the points as my 50* Non-Conference Game of the Month.

Green Bay @ Atlanta 1:00 PM EST
Play On: Atlanta -1.5 (25*)

This game will go a long way in determining who will be the number 1 seed in the NFC. The Falcons get the nod here as they are a solid 19-3 SU in their last 22 at home including 18-1 SU in the last 19 when Matt Ryan is their starting quarterback. Those SU numbers are significant considering the small number we are being asked to cover. This is a Falcons team that's flown under the radar to this point with all the early season hype going the way of Minnesota and Dallas. This is a statement game for the home team versus a quality opponent that they possible will see in the playoffs. Play on Atlanta minus the small number as a 25* Executive Line selection.