Carolina vs. Denver 6:30 PM ET

Play On: Carolina -5.5 (10*)

Let’s just do some simple comparisons. Carolina is a +28 turnover differential this season, and that includes +8 in its two playoff contests. Denver is -2 for the season. Cam Newton has thrown for 38 touchdowns against only 11 interceptions this season. Peyton Manning has tossed 11 touchdowns and has been intercepted 17 times. Carolina has held opponents to 78 yards or less rushing in ten of its last eleven games. The Panthers have run for 105 yards or more in all 18 of their games this season. Denver has been held to less than 100 yards rushing ten times, and that includes 69 yards or fewer on seven separate occasions.

Any NFL postseason favorite of 4.5 or more, possessing a better than .666 win percentage, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog straight up win, and they have a .470 or better win percentage, resulted in the favorite going 14-1 ATS since 1984. They also won all 15 games outright, and by an average of 18.0 points per contest. Play on Carolina minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Carolina vs. Denver 6:30 PM ET

Play On: Over 43.0 (10*)

Carolina has gone a perfect 9-0 over the total the past two seasons when facing an opponent with a winning record. Those nine games averaged a combined 57.6 points per contest. Carolina has gone over the total in each of their last five games this season as a favorite of 6.5 or less, and there were a combined average of 63.6 points scored per contest. Carolina has scored 31 points or more in eight of its previous nine games, and they’re average 32.2 points scored per contest this season. Denver has gone over the total in each of their last five contests after winning four in a row, and there was a combined average of 69.2 points scored per game.

Any Super Bowl team (Carolina) that’s gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite in its last three games, and there was a total of 46.5 or less, resulted in all eight of those contests going over the total since 1980. Those eight Super Bowls averaged a combined 55.4 points scored per game. Play on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play selection.

Arizona @ Carolina 7:40 PM ET

Play On: Over 47.0 (10*)

Both of these NFC Championship Game participants have been explosive offensively this season. As a matter of fact, they’re the top two scoring teams in the NFL. Arizona has averaged 30.6 points (#2) and 408.3 yards (#1) of total offense per game this season. They’re even better than that on the road. In eight away games, the Cardinals are averaging 32.7 points and 426 yards per contest. Arizona averages a large 6.28 yards per offensive play, and that’s best in the NFL.

Carolina has eerily similar offensive numbers in comparison to their upcoming opponent. They’re averaging 31.2 points (#1) and 367 yards of total offense per game. Those numbers improve to 33.0 points and 392 yards per game when playing at home.

Arizona is #5 in total defense, allowing an average of only 321.7 yards per game. However, the Cardinals have allowed 354 yards or more in four of its previous five games. Arizona has been adept at creating turnovers this season. They’ve had 34 takeaways in 17 games. However, Carolina has committed only 19 turnovers in 17 contests thus far.

Along those same lines, Carolina is #6 in the NFL in total defense, allowing an average of 322.9 yards per game. Unfortunately, the Panthers defense has been torched for 373 yards or more in each of their last four contests. They’ve been able to cover up that deficiency during this stretch by creating a combined 9 turnovers, and having a +5 takeaway/giveaway differential. They’ll have their hands full in those regards against a Cardinals team which is a +8 this season in that exact category. As good as the Panthers defense whole body of work has been this season, they’ve been amongst the worst stop units in regards to allowing plays of 20 or more yards.

Granted the Cardinals are 6-1 under the total in their last seven games. We also mustn’t forget, they began the season by going over the total in eight of its first ten contests. Carolina has seen its last eight games go over the total when facing an opponent with a winning record. Those contests averaged a combined 56.9 points scored per contest. Since Ron Rivera took over as head coach in Carolina prior to the start of the 2011 season, the Panthers are 19-7 over the total when facing an opponent with a winning record. Tightening those numbers up even further, if the total was 46.0 or more, Carolina is 10-1 over the total during that five season stretch. Play on this game to go over the total for a 10* rating.

Pittsburgh @ Denver 4:40 PM ET

Play On: Denver -7.5 (10*)

I’m no doctor, but torn ligament and a sprained AC joint in your throwing shoulder isn’t a good thing for a quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger is as tough as they come. However, I’m fairly sure that the Steelers vertical passing game will be hindered by his injuries, not to mention all world wide receiver Antonio Brown being doubtful due to a concussion. In addition, they’ll be facing one of if not the best defensive unit (Denver) in the NFL. Another point that can’t be overlooked is the 26 turnovers committed by Pittsburgh during its last eleven games. Giving Peyton Manning an extra week to prepare against a suspect at best Pittsburgh defense will provide another edge for Denver.

Any home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 that has a winning record, and has won 19 or more of their last 32 home games, versus an opponent coming off road wins in each of their previous two games, and they have a winning percentage of greater than .571, resulted in those home favorites going 18-0 SU&ATS since 1988. Those home favorites won those contests by a lofty average of 18.2 points per game. Play on the Denver Broncos minus the points for a 10* Top Play pick.

Green Bay @ Arizona 8:15 PM ET

Play On: Arizona -7.0 (10*)

Let’s not get carried away with the so called offensive resurgence by Green Bay last week. They caught a monumental break by drawing a Washington team that won the “NFL Least” with a 9-7 record. They will be facing a much tougher defense this week as well. Arizona was #5 in total defense as well as #7 in scoring defense in the NFL this season. The Cardinals were also #1 in total offense and #2 in scoring. These teams met in Week 16 of the regular season, and Arizona blew out Green Bay by a score of 36-8. Green Bay was only able to amass 178 yards of offense in that loss and tuned the ball over 4 times. They also sacked the usually elusive Aaron Rodgers 9 times. Arizona is 15-0 in their last 15 home games against non-division opponents, and they were also 10-5 ATS in those contests. Since 11/26/2012, Green Bay has gone 1-7 SU&ATS as a road underdog of 2.0 to 8.0 points.

Any non-division playoff home favorite of 3.0 or more that’s won 19 or more of their previous 32 games, versus an opponent coming off a game in which they scored 35 points or more, and that opponent is playing with revenge, resulted in the home favorite going 24-3 SU&ATS (88.8%) since 1980. Play on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points for a 10* Top Play selection.

The Vikings will be playing with big time revenge stemming from an embarrassing 38-7 home loss to Seattle in early December. It also must be kept in mind, playoff home underdogs of 4.0 or more have gone 4-0 ATS since 1980, and won three of those contests straight up. The Vikings have gone 9-2 straight up and 8-3 ATS during their last 11 home games. During that successful home stretch, they’ve also gone 6-1 SU&ATS against non-division opponents. Minnesota finished the regular season by going 3-0 SU&ATS, and allowed an average of just 16.7 points per game.

Any home underdog of 7.0 or less, playing with same season revenge, coming off three or more wins in a row with the last as an underdog, versus an opponent coming off a win, and that opponent has a winning percentage of .625 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1985. The underdog won all of those games outright by an average of 10.0 points per contest. Play on the Minnesota Vikings as a 10* Top Play selection.

Kansas City won the first meeting between these teams 34-20 in Oakland. The final score of that contest is quite deceptive. Oakland blew a 20-13 fourth quarter lead in that contest, and it was a direct result of three David Carr interceptions thrown in that final stanza. One of those picks was returned for a touchdown, and the other two turned into touchdowns on Kansas City drives following the change of possession. Oakland actually held a 361-222 advantage in total yards during the defeat. Oakland has gone 4-3 straight up and 5-2 ATS on the road this season. As a matter of fact, they’ve gone 4-0 ATS this season as an away underdog, and won three of those contests outright. Jack Del Rio is a perfect 8-0 against the spread in his head coaching career when his teams were playing with same season revenge.

Any division away underdog of 9.5 or less with a win percentage of better than .400, playing with revenge after game 12 of the season, coming off a straight up home win in which they were installed as a favorite, versus an opponent coming off a straight up win, and they possess a winning percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those away underdogs going 23-1 ATS (95.8%) since 1983. The underdog also won 18 of those 24 (75%) games outright. Play on the Oakland Raiders plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Arizona is coming off a 40-17 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night. The Cardinals are 9-0 SU&ATS in their last nine home games following a non-division away win, and won by an average of 18.7 points per contest. Since the start of the 2013 season, Arizona is a perfect 14-0 at home against non-division opponent, and their average margin of victory was 8.4 points per contest. Since 11/25/2012, Green Bay has gone a dismal 2-8 ATS as an away underdog of 7.0 or less.

Any favorite (Arizona) of 5.0 or less that has a win percentage of .684 or better, versus an opponent which is three straight covers as a favorite, resulted in those favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1997. The average margin of victory was 15.0 points per game. Play on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

I just don’t see the Lions recovering from that gut wrenching home loss to Green Bay two weeks ago. They played uninspired football in last Sunday’s 21-14 loss as a 3.0 point favorite at St. Louis. Detroit is 1-14 ATS in their last fifteen on the road after game 9 of the season.

The Saints showed me a lot of character by going on the road last week and churning out a 24-17 win at Tampa Bay. With the way their season has gone, it would’ve been easy to mail it in last week, and especially so on the road. The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last twelve games as a home favorite of 4.0 or less.

Any non-division home favorite of 5.5 or less, coming off a straight up underdog win versus a division opponent, versus a team coming off a straight up favorite loss, resulted in the home favorites going 20-2 ATS (90.9%) since 1988. Play on the New Orleans Saints minus the points for a 10* Top Play selection.

The Rams opened as a 1.0 point underdog in this contest, and has since moved to a current line of either -2.5 or -3.0. This huge line movement has taken place despite the fact that the volume of point spread wagers have been virtually even. However, the bigger bets and sharper money has decisively gone on the Rams, and in my opinion for good reason. St. Louis is coming off a 21-14 home win last week over Detroit. Tampa Bay sustained a 24-17 home defeat to New Orleans this past Sunday, and that loss was a crushing blow to their already feint playoff hopes.

Any home team playing after game 11 of the season, coming off a home win in which they allowed 22 points or less, and they have a .384 or better win percentage, versus a non-division opponents with a losing record and coming off a home loss, resulted in those home teams going 30-0 straight up since 1980. Considering the small number we’re being asked to cover, the straight up results take on a more added significance. Play on the St. Louis Rams for a 10* Top Play wager.

Obviously the Patriots offense has been slowed a bit in recent weeks due to the loss of wide receiver Julian Edelman, all world tight end Rob Gronkowski, and running back Dion Lewis. None of those three players will be in uniform today. However, Tom Brady is still their quarterback, and no team in the NFL adjusts better to the personnel that’s available than New England. The Patriots have gone 4-1 over the total on the road this season, and there was a combined average of 55.2 points scored per contest.

Houston’s defense dominant three game run came to a screeching halt last week in a 30-21 loss at Buffalo. The Bills offense racked up 390 yards of total offense, and that included 183 yards on the ground. Buffalo also may have established the blueprint to Neutralizing J.J. Watt who was a non-factor in last Sunday’s game. On the other hand, the Texans offense was able to amass 401 yards of total offense in the loss. During the past three seasons, Houston is 7-1 over the total as a home underdog of 7.0 or less. Play on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

Eli Manning versus Kirk Cousins, and Tom Coughlin against Jay Gruden, and I’m fairly certain you see where I’m going with this. The Giants have gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last five meetings with the Redskins. In addition, the Giants have been notorious for coming up with superb performances on the road in big games since Tom Coughlin has been in charge. The Giants are averaging 35.7 points and 388.3 yards of total offense in their previous three contests. Washington is allowing 28.3 points and 392.7 yards per game in their last three contests.

Any road underdog or favorite of 3.0 or less playing in game 10 of the season or beyond, coming off a straight up loss but ATS cover in their previous game, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .100 to .499, resulted in that road team going 25-1 SU&ATS (96.1%) since 1991. Play on the New York Giants for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chicago has gone a very respectable 4-3 during their previous seven games. Their three losses during that stretch have all come by 3 points or less. The Bears defense has shown a substantial improvement this year under the guidance of new head coach John Fox. They’ve allowed 23 points or less in six of their last seven games. During their season opening 31-23 loss to Green Bay, they held the Packers to just 322 yards of total offense. They’ve also held four of their previous nine opponents to 300 yards or less. Matt Forte is expected to return for this game, and that will certainly give the Bears an additional boost.

The Packers snapped a three game losing streak last Sunday with a 30-13 win at Minnesota. Their offense still doesn’t look like that overwhelming attach they’ve been in recent years. During their last four contests they’re averaging a mediocre 21.3 points and 308.5 yards per game.

Any division away underdog of 3.0 to 9.5, playing with revenge, versus an opponent coming off a division away underdog straight up win in which they covered by 10.0 or more, resulted in the road underdog going 27-2 ATS (93.1%) since 1986. The underdog also won 14 of those 29 games outright. Play on the Chicago Bears for a 10* Top Play wager.

The Packers are sorely missing their deep vertical threat Jordy Nelson, and especially so during this current three game losing streak. Opposing defenses have really figured out how to neutralize the usually explosive Packers offense. You may be surprised to know that Green Bay is 1-8 SU&ATS in their last nine games as an away pick or underdog of 7.5 or less, and that includes 0-5 SU&ATS as an underdog of 3.5 or less (-16.2 PPG).

The Vikings are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, they’ve won 7 in a row at home dating back to last season, and are 13-3 in the last 16 in Minnesota. Considering the current point spread, and the fact they’re facing an opponent that’s currently struggling, there’s a lot of betting value for the home side.

Minnesota is coming road underdog straight up 30-14 win at Oakland last Sunday. Any NFL home favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less, coming off an away underdog straight up win by 10 points or more, and they allowed 20 points or less, resulted in the home team going 17-2 SU&ATS since 1996. Play on the Minnesota Vikings for a 10* Top Play wager.

For the second consecutive week Green Bay is installed as a road favorite against an undefeated opponent. Unfortunately for them, the first time around didn’t go well. They were beaten quite convincingly at Denver by a score of 29-10, and were outgained in that contest 500-140. Star quarterback Aaron Rogers suffered through one of, if not the worst day of his illustrious career. Despite that loss, the books seem undeterred. The last I checked, they’re not generous, nor charitable to sports bettors. Public perception will look at the Packers loss last week, and believe they’re getting an absolute steal with an undefeated home underdog this week. The reality of the situation, if it looks that easy, it seldom is.

Since 12/28/2008, Green Bay has gone 23-5-1 following a loss. That number is even more impressive if they’re coming off a loss against a non-division opponent. The Packers are 17-2-1 during that exact time frame when coming off a non-division defeat in their previous game, and they’re also 15-5 ATS in those contests.

Since the start of the 2011 NFL season, any road favorite that’s coming off a road favorite straight up loss, resulted in that team going 14-5 ATS (73.7%). It’s even more profitable if they’re a favorite of 4.5 or less, going 9-1 ATS during that exact time frame.

The Packers defense had been vastly improved and quite impressive this season. That is of course, until last Sunday’s debacle in Denver. However, that Denver defense appears to be the best in the NFL at this juncture, and especially so when playing at home. The Panthers defense is very good as well, but they won’t present the same challenges to Aaron Rogers and company that they encountered last Sunday. Speaking of Aaron Rogers, he’s not going to have two bad games in a row. The Green Bay defense will also be out to atone for last week’s embarrassing performance, and I firmly believe they’ll bounce back in a big way. Play on the Green Bay Packers for a 10* wager.

The Denver Broncos have gone an outstanding 23-1 in their last 24 regular season home games, and that includes15-0 if they’re facing a non-division opponent. You may be surprised to know that Green Bay has gone an uninspiring 7-12 in their last 19 non-division away games, and that includes 2-7 as a favorite or underdog of 3.5 or less.

Let’s briefly discuss the matter of an undefeated home team at this juncture of the season. Any NFL home team that’s undefeated, and playing in games 7 through 13 of the season, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .200 or better, resulted in that undefeated home underdog going 25-2 (92.6%) since 2004. Play on the Denver Broncos plus the points as my “NFL Game of the Year Part I”.

The St. Louis Rams have gone a dismal 3-9 ATS as a home favorite of 10.0 or less since 2011. St. Louis has gone 1-3 SU&ATS in their last four games, and their inept offensive play has been a major contributor to those defeats. During that four game stretch, they’ve averaged just 12.5 points and 288.3 yards per game.

The Browns are coming off a gut wrenching 26-23 overtime home loss to undefeated Denver last Sunday. It was the third consecutive game for Cleveland that was decided by 3 points. Prior to the Denver loss, they were a 33-30 winner at Baltimore, and that was preceded by a 30-27 defeat at San Diego. Cleveland’s last three losses have come by a combined 13 points. Since Mike Pettine took over as head coach last season, Cleveland has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog following a loss. Cleveland could’ve very easily won each of their last five instead of going 2-3 during that span. There’s nothing apparent which would lead me to believe that Cleveland won’t be in this game for the duration, or possibly even pull off an outright upset. Play on the Browns for a 10* Top Play wager.

Seattle possesses an extremely strong home field advantage. The only other team that it’s even in the same stratosphere is Green Bay. Since the start of the 2012 season, Seattle has gone 28-2 at Century Link Field. They’ve also been a cash cow at home during that stretch, going 21-9 (70%) ATS, and includes a perfect 12-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.5 or less. Seattle has allowed a combined 10 points in their first two games at Century Link Field, and the only touchdown they surrendered came on a defensive fumble return by Detroit. The Seahawks defense allowed just 146 yards to Chicago, and 256 against Detroit during those two home contests

The Carolina Panthers are coming off a bye week. You would think a 4-0 team playing with rest, and installed as an underdog, would provide an optimum betting edge. Well think again, because the ATS history of this exact situation says otherwise. The Panthers were a 37-23 winner at Tampa Bay in their previous game, and covered easily as a 3.0 point road favorite. This becomes an extremely rare scenario where you have an away underdog playing with rest, and is coming off an away favorite ATS win. This is just the eleventh such time this has occurred since 1980. Any away underdog playing with rest, and is coming off an away favorite ATS win, has gone 1-9 ATS in addition to losing all ten games outright.

Carolina has defeated Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay on their way to a 4-0 start. Those four teams were a combined 5-15 heading into this week’s action. This is clearly an overrated Carolina team. Contrarily, they’re certainly not being overvalued by the sportsbooks this week considering they’re a touchdown underdog versus an opponent that currently sports a losing record. Play on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points as a 10* top Play selection.

At this stage of their careers, I much prefer Blake Bortles at quarterback over highly prized rookie Jameis Winston. Jacksonville deserved a better fate in last week’s 16-13 overtime loss at Indianapolis. The Jaguars three losses this season have come against opponents that are a combined 10-2. Tampa Bay has been outscored in their two home games by a wide margin of 79-37. The Buccaneers have also committed 10 turnovers during their first four games of the year, and Jacksonville has turned it over just 4 times in as many contests.

Any road favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less that’s won 13 or less of their previous 32 games, coming off a loss by 3 points or less, versus an opponent that allowed 30 points or more in their last game, that opponent (Buccaneers) has a winning percentage of less than .600, resulted in the road team going 25-3 SU&ATS (89.3%) since 1980. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

Cincinnati has not only won their first three games, but they covered on each of those occasions. NFL history has shown that home favorites or underdogs of 9.0 or less, playing in game 4 of the season, and were 3-0 SUATS in their first 3 contests, coming off a game in which they covered by 15.0 or less while scoring 20 points or more, resulted in the home team going 12-1 SU&ATS since 1980. Needless to say, this exact situation clearly favors Cincinnati. In addition, the Bengals are 17-4-1 straight up in their last twenty-two at home, including 16-5-1 ATS. They’ve also gone an extremely profitable 8-1 SU & ATS in their last nine as a home underdog or favorite of 5.5 or less. All those games have come under the watchful eye of current head coach Marvin Lewis.

This is a classic example of one team (Chiefs) not living up to their preseason billing, and the other (Bengals) being much better than even the positive predictions would have implied. Of course it’s still very early, but the situation shapes up very nicely for a Bengals cover.

Any favorite of 6.5 or less coming off SU&ATS wins in each of their previous two games, and the last one came as an underdog, versus an opponent coming off a loss in which they allowed 37 points or more, resulted in the favorite going 24-5 ATS (82.7%) since 1981. Play on Cincinnati minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

Oakland has lost the last 10, and they’re 1-19 during their previous twenty road games. When looking inside those numbers, the Raiders have seen 18 of those 19 losses come by 4 points or more. Need I remind you what the current point spread is? As a matter of fact, they were an underdog in each contest, and were +6.0 or more in 19 of those 20 games. The Raiders are in relatively unchartered waters as this small of a road underdog. I understand the Raiders are coming off an impressive home underdog straight up win last week over Baltimore. However, Oakland has gone 0-9 SU&ATS in their previous nine games following a win, and lost those contests by an average of 21.1 points per game.

Josh McCown has been cleared to play and by all account he will resume as the Browns starting quarterback. Johnny Manziel filled in admirably last week in McCown’s absence during Cleveland’s 28-14 home win over Tennessee. I may be in the minority, but I don’t feel as though McCown is a huge upgrade over Manziel, nor do I believe there a significant drop off when “Johnny Football” is under center. One thing I do like a lot in this matchup is the Browns defense. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is bright young star in the making, but he will be in a very tough environment at “The Dawg Pound” on Sunday. Play on the Cleveland Browns minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

It may be a bit of an old fashioned approach, but certainly is a proven winning formula at playoff time. The New England Patriots are an impressive +13 in the turnover department this season, while the Colts are a -6. That's a huge +19 turnover differential disparity between that favors the Patriots. I would be foolish to ignore that factor. This is also a New England team which has gone an outstanding 23-8 ATS (74.2%) in their last 31-games as a home favorite of 9.0 or less. They've faced the Colts three times since 2012, and have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in those contests. Even more impressive is the decisiveness of those three wins by the scores of 42-20, 43-22, and 59-24. Since the start of the 2011 season, the Colts are 1-7 SU&ATS as an away underdog of 7.5 or less versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .500 or better.

Any playoff home favorite of 4.5 to 9.5, coming off a playoff home win by 4-points or more, versus an opponent that has a winning percentage of .800 or less, and that opponent is playing with revenge, has seen the home favorite go 14-2 ATS since 1982. The home favorite was upset just once in those 16 playoff games. Play on the New England Patriots as a 10* Top Play selection.

Since the start of the 2012 season, the Carolina Panthers have gone an extremely profitable 15-5 ATS as an underdog of 2.5 or more, and they're not coming off a week of rest. The Panthers have gone 10-9-1 straight up in those contests as well. The Panthers have faced the Seahawks in each of the past two season, and although they lost in both games, the outcomes were in jeopardy throughout the entire games. This strongly suggests to me that the Panthers are one of the few teams in the NFL that stack up quite well versus Seattle.

Since the 1980 season, any away underdog with a winning percentage of .300 or more, versus an opponent which had allowed 6-points or less in each of their previous two games, has seen the away team go 25-6 ATS (80.6%). The away underdog also went 17-13-1 straight up on those contests. Play on the Carolina Panthers plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

The Bengals have seen their last 6-games on the road all go under the total. The average total in those games was 46.9, and the average points scored was 33.3. Those 6-games stayed under the total by a decisive average of 13.6 points per contest. I look for the Bengals to rely heavily on their running game. Especially considering star wide receiver A.J. Green is doubtful to play due to a concussion, and tight end Jermaine Gresham is far less than 100% due to a back injury. The Bengals have rushed for an impressive 557-yards over their previous 3-games, and averaged a superb 5.1 yards per  rushing attempt. The Cincinnati run defense has been outstanding in their previous 5 road games. They've allowed opponents a total of only 296-yards during that time, and surrendered a paltry 2.8 yards per attempt.

The Colts have have gone under the total in each of their previous 4-games. The Colts running game wasn't a factor in any of those contests, gaining just 268-yards on the ground, and averaging a poor 3.1 yards per carry. The Colts defense was tied with the Buffalo Bills for best in the NFL this season on 3rd down, allowing opponents to convert just 33.2% of the time. The Colts met the Bengals once already this season, and turned in a dominating defensive performance in a 27-0 home win. Play on this game to go under the total as a 10* Top Play.

I understand that the Cardinals are limited offensively with 3rd string quarterback Ryan Lindley. However, they're still a quality football team, and shouldn't be a sizable underdog versus an opponent  with a losing record. In case you're wondering, the Cardinals are 19-2 ATS in their last 21-games as an underdog of 6.5 or less, and if they were facing an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .571, they improve to 12-0 ATS. On the other hand, Carolina has gone 2-8 ATS in their last 10-games as a non-division home favorite of between 3.0 and 6.5.

The Cardinals finished the regular season by losing their final two games. Believe it or not, NFL Playoff betting history shows teams that enter the playoffs on a down note similar to the Cardinals have done very well. Since 1990, any non-division playoff team, coming off two losses in a row, and is facing an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .625, has gone 8-0 ATS, and won 7 of those 8 outright.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh 8:30 PM ET
Game# 305-306
Play On: Pittsburgh -3.5 (10*)

Any home favorite of 3.5 or more (Pittsburgh) that's playing in game 9 of the season or beyond, and they have a winning record, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog straight up win by 17-points or less, and that opponent (Cincinnati) has a winning record, has gone 20-3 ATS since 1990. Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

Carolina @ Atlanta 4:25 PM ET
Game# 315-316
Play On: Under 48.0 (10*)

The Carolina Panthers are coming off a win over the Cleveland Browns last Sunday to set up this win or take all game in the NFC South. The Panthers have gone under the total in 12 of their last 14 following a win in their previous game. Carolina has also seen their last three meetings go under the total versus the Falcons. Those games had an average total of 46.7, and an average combined score of 40.3 points.

Any team with a total of 42.5 to 49.0 (Carolina), coming off a home win in which they scored 36-points or less and they failed to cover as a favorite, versus an opponent coming off an away underdog straight up win in which they scored 33-points or less, has seen that team go under the total in 31 of those 32-games (96.9%) since 1984. Play on this game to go under the total as my NFL 10* Total of the Year!

Indianapolis @ Dallas 4:25 PM ET
Game# 127-128
Play On: Dallas -3.0 (10*)

The Cowboys came up with a huge 38-27 road win at Philadelphia last week. That win put them in the driver's seat in the NFC East. They can ill afford to let that effort go for naught by losing to the Colts at home on Sunday. Besides, they still have an opportunity to attain the #2 seed in the NFC, and that would afford them a first round bye.

The Colts have already clinched the AFC South. They currently are still alive for the top seed in the AFC. Although those chances are possible but not highly probable. However, I don't have a lot of confidence in the Colts on the road versus a quality opponent. Indianapolis has gone 1-6 SU&ATS since the start of the 2012 season as an away underdog versus an opponent with a winning record.

Any home favorite of 13.0 or less playing in game 13 of the season or beyond, coming off away SU&ATS wins in each of their previous 2-games, they won by 12-points or less while scoring 20-points or more in their previous game, and they have a winning percentage of .600 or better, has seen the home favorite go 16-0 SU&SATS since 1988. The home favorite won those 16-games by an average of 20.4 points per contest.

San Diego @ San Francisco 8:25 PM ET
Game# 103-104
Play On: San Francisco -1.0 (10*)

The 49ers have gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6-games as a home favorite of 7.0 or less following a loss by 5-points or more. The average margin of victory in those contests was 15.8 points per game. This is a very proud organization with a veteran presence on the roster, and they would like nothing more than to inflict damage on the Chargers playoff hopes. Besides, it's not like the Chargers have exactly played like world beaters of late. San Diego has dropped each of their previous 2-games and have been outscored 45-24 in those contests. So much for Philip Rivers great record in the month of December.

Any regular season home favorite or underdog of 2.5 or less, facing a non-division opponent in game 12 of the season or beyond, and they have a winning percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .615 or less, has seen the home team go a perfect 15-0 SU&ATS since 1982. Play on the San Francisco 49ers as a 10* Top Play.

San Francisco @ Seattle 4:25 PM ET
Game# 329-330
Play On: San Francisco +10.0 (10*)

Any road favorite or underdog of 12.5 or less, playing with revenge in game 6 or beyond of the regular season, coming off a road loss by 17-points or less, and they have a winning percentage of .333 or better, versus a divisional opponent with a winning percentage of .50 or better, has seen that road team go 23-1 ATS (95.8%) since 2003. The road team also won 17 of those 24-games (70.8%) outright.

Any away pick or underdog playing in game 11 of the season or beyond with a winning percentage of .510 to .600, coming off a road favorite of -3.0 or greater SU loss, and they've won 14 or more of their last 32-games, versus an opponent with a better than .400 win percentage, has seen that road team go 16-0 ATS since 1988, and they've also won 14 of those 16-games outright. Play on the San Francisco 49ers plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland 1:00 PM ET
Game# 313-314
Play On: Cleveland  (10*)

The Cleveland Browns enter this week with a 7-6 record, and are clinging to hopes of making the playoffs. The Browns have sustained 3 of those 6-losses by 3-points or less, and each of those 3-games were decided by an opponent’s go ahead score in the waning seconds of the 4th quarter. The highly anticipated Johnny Manziel era is set to begin in Cleveland on Sunday. It would be hard to imagine the highly touted rookie won’t be an upgrade over the struggling Brian Hoyer at this point.

The Bengals endured a meltdown during a 42-21 home loss versus the Steelers last week. Cincinnati entered the 4th quarter leading the Steelers 21-17, and then proceeded to be outscored 25-0 during the final stanza. Andy Dalton continued his erratic play at quarterback by committing a crucial 4th quarter lost fumble that seemed to ignite the Steelers comeback.

Any home team playing in game 13 or beyond of the regular season, and they’re either a pick or a favorite of 8.0 or less, that home team has won 51 of those 65-games (75.8%) straight up since 1982. The straight up results take on added significance considering the point-spread. By the way, in case you’re keeping score at home, the host has also gone 44-21 ATS (67.7%) in those 65-contests. Play on the Cleveland Browns as a 5* selection.

Baltimore @ Miami 1:00 PM ET
Game# 151-152
Play On: Baltimore +3.0 (10*)

The Baltimore Ravens let one slip away last week in a 34-33 home loss to the San Diego Chargers. They squandered a 30-20 lead late in the 4th quarter by allowing the Chargers to score a pair of touchdowns in the last 3:40 of the game, including the go ahead score with just 0:38 to play. On a positive note, the Ravens have shown amazing resiliency since John Harbaugh has taken over as their head coach. Baltimore has gone 24-6 since 11/1/2009 following a loss.

Since 10/6/2013, the Dolphins are just 3-4 SU&ATS as a home favorite. Miami has also gone a miserable 9-26 ATS since the start of the 2003 season as a non-division home favorite, and has lost 17 of those 35-games straight up. Miami is coming off a come from behind 16-13 road win over the New York Jets on Monday night.

Recent history isn’t on the Dolphins side in this matchup. Since 11/11/2012, teams coming off a Monday night road win have gone a horrible 1-16 ATS in their following game. Carrying that scenario one step further, if a team is an underdog of favorite of 7.0 or less in their next game following that Monday night road win, they’ve gone a pathetic 0-11 ATS during that same time frame, and lost 10 of those 11-games outright. Play on the Baltimore Ravens plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

Carolina @ Minnesota 1:00 PM ET
Game# 467-468
Play On: Carolina +2.5 (10*)

Any road favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less, playing in game 9 of the season or beyond, coming off a ATS win but a straight up loss in which they allowed 34-points or less, and has a winning percentage of .600 or less, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .100 or better, has gone 37-9 ATS (86%) since 1992. The road team also went 38-5 (88.4%) straight up on those contests. Play on the Carolina Panthers as a 10* Top Play selection.

Philadelphia @ Dallas 4:30 PM ET
Game# 307-308
Play On: Dallas -3.0 (10*)

Any division home favorite (Dallas) playing in game 9 of the season or beyond, coming off an away favorite straight up win in which they failed to cover,, and they have a winning percentage of better than .625, versus an opponent that scored 16-points or more in their previous game, and they (Philadelphia) has a winning percentage of less than .750, has gone 17-1 ATS since 1992. The home team has won all 18 of those games straight up as well, and that's significant due to the small number we're being asked to cover. Play on the Dallas Cowboys as a 10* Top Play selection.

Arizona @ Seattle 4:05 PM ET
Game# 267-268
Play On: Seattle -7.0

This has the potential to be a statement game for the Seahawks, or could potentially put a severe damper in their postseason aspirations. Seattle is a perfect 7-0 straight up, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home following a loss.

The Cardinals have gone 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 as an away underdog of 4.0 or more, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .400 to .700, and they lost those contests by an average of 22.4 points. This will also be a tough assignment for Cardinals backup quarterback Drew Stanton in what arguably is the most boisterous home crowd in the NFL.

The line should tell you everything you need to know in this game. We have a 6-4 Seattle team as a touchdown favorite versus a 9-1 opponent. The books just don't give money away. Play on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points as a 10* best bet selection.

Detroit @ Arizona 4:25 PM ET
Game# 471-472
Play On: Arizona  (10*)

Regardless of the Cardinals being without starting quarterback Carson Palmer, this is too much value for me to ignore. The Cardinals have won 12 of their last 15 home games, and covered in 10 of those contests. As a matter of fact, Arizona has gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 non-division home games as a favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less, and won those 5 contests by an average of 11.8 points per contest. The Cardinals backup quarterback Drew Stanton takes over for the injured Palmer once again, and he's already 2-1 as a starter this season. The Lions have gone a dismal 3-20 ATS in their last 23-games as an away favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less.

Any non-division home pick or favorite of 6.0 or less with a better than .333 winning percentage, coming off a home favorite ATS win, versus an opponent coming off a home favorite of 10.5 or less ATS win in which they covered by 8.0 or less, and they have a winning percentage of .555 or better, has gone 21-2 SU&ATS since 1983. Play on the Arizona Cardinals as a 10* Top Play selection.

Buffalo @ Miami 8:20 PM ET
Game# 309-310
Play On: Buffalo +6.0 (10*)

The Bills have been solid on the road this season going 3-1 SU&ATS, and all 4 of those games have came as an underdog. Buffalo leads the NFL with 34-sacks, and they will be facing a patchwork Miami offensive line. Buffalo has won 3 straight over Miami including a 29-10 lopsided victory over the Dolphins in week 2 at Ralph Wilson stadium. Miami has gone a dismal 1-15 ATS, and 2-14 straight up as a home favorite of 7.0 or less, coming off a loss, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .625.

Any away underdog of 6.0 or less with a winning percentage of less than .666, coming off a home favorite straight up loss in which they scored 13-points or less, and allowed 13-points or more, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .300 or better, coming off a loss, has gone 38-3 ATS (92.7%) since 1984. The underdog has won 27 of those 41-games outright. Play on the Buffalo Bills as a 10* Top Play selection.

Giants @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET
Game# 269-270
Play On: Seahawks -8.0 (10*)

Seattle is due to really crush somebody, and the Giants are ripe for the taking. The G-Men were embarrassed on last Monday night before a national television audience in a 40-24 home loss to the Colts. It's no secret the Seahawks have vastly underachieved so far this season, and with the 2nd half of the season about to begin, I look for Pete Carroll's team to ratchet up the intensity. The Seahawks have one of the strongest home fields in the NFL right now, going 20-2 at Century Link Field since the start of the 2012 season. Contrarily, the Giants have gone 4-12 in their last 16 road games, including 0-5 SU&ATS in the last 5 when facing an opponent with a winning percentage of better than .600., and they lost those 5-games by an average of 22.0 points.

Any home favorite of 8.0 to 11.5 playing in games 2 through 15 of the season, coming off a win in which they scored 30-points or more, and they've won 26 or less of their last 32 home games, versus an opponent coming off a loss by 10-points or more, and that opponent has a winning percentage of less than .545, has gone 30-3 ATS (90.9%) since 1997. Play on the Seahawks minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

San Diego @ Miami 1;00 PM ET
Game# 451-452
Play On: Over 44.5 (10*)

The Chargers have gone over the total in their last 10-games as an away underdog following a straight up loss. The average total score of those 10-games was 64.5 points. The Dolphins have gone over the total in each of their 4 home games this season. The average score in those 4-games was 51.3 points. The Dolphins will definitely being attacking a banged up Chargers secondary. The Dolphins special teams coverage units have been poor to this point of the season. I look for Philip Rivers to have a huge game in this one, and Ryan Tannehill will do his share to help our cause.

Any non-division away underdog with a total of 50.0 or less, coming off a game in which they scored 21 or more and allowed 35 or more, they went over the total of 48.0 or more in the previous game, has gone 12-0 over the total since 1980. Those 12-games have averaged 58.5 points per game. Play on the Chargers and Dolphins to go over the total as a 10* Top Play selection.

Green Bay @ New Orleans 8:30 PM ET
Game# 275-276
Play On: New Orleans -1.0 (10*)

Beware of a wounded animal, and the Saints are hurting, but are still extremely dangerous at home. New Orleans has gone a terrific 23-6 ATS in their last 29 as a home favorite, and that includes winning 25 of those 29 straight up. The Saints have gone a perfect 11-0 SU&ATS in the last 11 as a home favorite of 11.0 or less following a loss. They won those 8-games by an average of 20.0 per contest. The Saints are 2-0 at home so far in 2014, but have gone a dismal 0-4 on the road. Those losses are a bit deceiving since 3 of the 4 came by 3-points or less. New Orleans is one of a handful of teams that can go blow for blow offensively with the Packers.

Any home favorite of 9.5 or less, versus an opponent that's gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3-games as a favorite in each of those contests, and they have at least 1- loss on the season, has gone 10-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The home favorite won those 10-contests by an average of 14.4 points points per game. Play on the New Orleans Saints as a my 10* NFL Game of the Month.

Carolina @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET
Game# 461-462
Play On: Green Bay -6.5 (10*)

The Packers have gone 15-2 ATS in their last 17-games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 13.0, and they scored 39-points or less in their previous game. They've also gone a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS in that same identical situation is they won straight up in their previous game, and they won those 9-games by an average of 27.8 points. The Panthers have managed to get off to a very good start to the season, despite a defense that's regressed dramatically compared to the stellar unit from a season ago.

Any non-division home favorite of 5.0 or more that's gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their previous 3-games, they were a favorite in their previous game and scored 37-points or less, they've lost at least 1-game on the season, versus an opponent that has a winning percentage of better than .333, has gone 15-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The home favorite won those 15-games by an average of 21.9 points per game. Play on the Green Bay Packers minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

Jets @ Patriots 8:20 PM ET
Game# 303-304
Play On: Jets +10.5 (10*)

The weather forecast for game time is a a 90% chance of heavy thunderstorms and winds of 8 to 10 miles per hour. That definitely will affect the Patriots passing game. Running the ball hasn't been their calling card this season although they've had some moderate success at times. The Jets have been stout against the run this season ranking 8th best in the NFL. The vulnerability of the Jets stop unit is in their secondary, and the conditions may save that unit from being exposed. The Patriots huge win at Buffalo came at a heavy cost. They lost leading rusher Stevan Ridley for the year with a knee injury, along with their leading tackler Jerod Mayo who also suffered a season ending knee injury. This is one of those scenarios if it looks to good to be true, well than it is.

Any division away underdog of 3.0 or more that has a win percentage of .500 or less, versus an opponent coming off a division away underdog straight up win in which they scored 13-points or more, in addition to covering by 10.0 or more, and it’s game 3 or beyond in the season, has gone 43-5 (89.6%) ATS since 1980. The underdog has also gone 24-24 straight up in those games.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland 1:00 PM ET
Game# 253-254
Play On: Cleveland -1.0 (10*)

The Browns will be riding the momentum from overcoming a 28-3 deficit at Tennessee last week to win 29-28. Speaking of comebacks, they were down 27-3 at the half in their season opener at Pittsburgh, rallied to tie the game, only to lose the game 30-27 on a field goal as time expired in the 4th quarter. As a matter of fact both Browns losses came in identical fashion, with the margin of victory being on a field goal in the final play of regulation time. The Steelers come off two unimpressive performances in a row. They're ripe for the taking. The Browns are battle tested with all 4 of their games decided by 3-points or less.

Any division home favorite of 2.5 or less that's playing playing with revenge in addition to no rest, coming off a win by 22-points or less, they have a .500 or better winning percentage, versus an opponent coming off a win, has gone 21-1 straight up since 1987. The home favorite has also gone a very good 20-2 ATS in those 22-games. Play on the Cleveland Browns as a 10* Top Play selection.

Kansas City @ San Francisco 4:25 ET
Game# 471-472
Play On: San Francisco -5.0 (10*)

The Chiefs are coming off a pair of lopsided straight up underdog wins over the Dolphins and the Patriots. They're about to get a dose of reality when they travel to the west coast on Sunday to take on a 49ers. San Francisco played its best game of the early season last Sunday in a 26-21 wins over the Eagles. The 21-points that the Eagles scored last week was a bit deceiving. The scores came on a punt return, an interception return, and a blocked punt recovered in the end zone. The potent Eagles offense failed to account for any points in the game. As a matter of fact, they were held to a mere 11 first downs, and a paltry 213-yards of total offense. The 49ers also racked up 407-yards on offense, rushed for 218, and were a +3 in the turnover department.

Any home favorite of 3.5 or more that's won 19 or more of their last 32-games, coming off a SU&ATS win, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog straight up win in which they scored 22-points or more, and they have a .500 or better win percentage, has gone 25-5 ATS (83.3%) since 1985. Play on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

Eagles @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET
Game#267-268
Play On: 49ers -4.5 (10*)

I expect that a lot of bettors have fell off the 49ers bandwagon. That's just the way I like it. Granted the 49ers have some deficiencies on defense compared to recent years. However this is still a very good football team, and is very capable of hanging a big number on the board offensively. After looking horrible in attempting to stop the run during their season opening loss to Buffalo, the 49ers have allowed an average of just 2.9 yards per rush in their previous 2-games. They hold a huge +2.9 rush differential over the Eagles heading into this game. The Eagles are coming off consecutive 3-point wins, and had to rally from 17-0 down in their season opener versus Jacksonville. I'm sure there will be many out there that are thinking they're getting an absolute steal with the Eagles this week. I'm not one of them.

Any home favorite of 9.5 or less in game 4 of the season or beyond, coming off a straight up favorite loss, versus an opponent coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they scored 35-points or more in their previous game, 16-1 SU&ATS since 1984. Play on the 49ers minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

San Francisco @ Arizona 4:05 PM ET
Game# 471-472
Play On: Arizona +3.0 (10*)

The general public seems to think they're getting an absolute steal with the highly regarded 49ers, versus an opponent playing with a backup quarterback. However, to steal a familiar quote from ESPN college football analyst Lee Corso, "not so fast my friend". I said this last week, and I will say it again, the 49ers have flaws on the defensive side of the ball that wasn't apparent last season. They're secondary is extremely vulnerable, and the Cowboys Demarco Murray ran for 127-years against them in the season opener. San Francisco was a -4 turnover differential last week in route to blowing a 17-0 lead, and losing 28-20 against a banged up Bears team. They will be facing a Cardinals team that's gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a home underdog of 4.0 or less, and won those games by an average of 9.4 points.

Any division home underdog of 5.0 or less, coming off an away underdog straight up win that the covered by 25.0 or less, and they've lost to their current opponent the last 3 or more times in a row, has gone 22-2 ATS since 1990. The underdog has won 18 of those 24-games outright. Play on the Arizona Cardinals plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

Jets @ Packers 4:25 ET
Game# 273-274
Play On: Jets +8.5 (10*)

The Packers are much better than they showed against the Seahawks in their season opening blowout loss in front of a national audience. After all, they're not the first team that's looked less than average versus Pete Carroll's club in recent years. Contrarily, I also think the Jets are the type of defensive team that can give the potent offensive attack of the Packers some issues. I'm of the opinion that Rex Ryan's team is undervalued in this spot. This game will go down to the wire, I wouldn't be shocked if the Jets get the outright win, but I'll take the points as an additional bonus.

Any away underdog of 2.0 to 9.5 versus an opponent that comes off an away underdog ATS loss in which they allowed 35-points or more and failed to cover by 10.0 or more, they're playing in game 2 through 15 of the season, and has won 18 or more of their last 32-games, has gone 30-9 ATS since 1986. The underdog also won 20 of those 39-games outright. Play on the New York Jets plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

San Diego @ Arizona 10:20 PM ET
Game# 491-492
Play On: Arizona -3.0 (10*)

This game takes on an interesting story line. We have one team (Arizona) that has a chip on their shoulder after failing to make the playoffs a season ago despite winning 10-games. The other team sneaked into the playoffs with only 9-wins on the last day of the season when everything fell their way. This is a vastly underrated Cardinals team in my opinion that will be out to make a statement this evening in front of a national television audience. Arizona has gone 9-1 SU&ATS in their last 10 at home as an underdog or favorite of 3.0 or less. The Chargers are a dismal 1-6 SU&ATS in their last 7 as a regular season non-division road underdog of 6.5 or less.

Any home favorite of 5.0 or less that's playing in their season opener, and they won 10 or more games in the previous season, versus an opponent that won 9-games or more in the previous year, has gone 27-9 (75%) ATS since the start of the 1987 season. Play on the Arizona Cardinals minus the small number as a 10* Top Play selection.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET
Game# 473-474
Play On: Baltimore -1.0 (10*)

The Ravens have won their last 4 and 18 of the last 23-games against the Bengals. The Ravens have also gone a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6-games as a division home favorite or underdog of 6.0 or less, and when playing in their first 7-games of the season. The Bengals are a dismal 1-7 in their last 8, and 2-10 in the last 12 road games versus a division foe.

Any division home favorite of 3.0 or less that's playing in their regular season opening game, and they won 8 or more games in the previous season, has gone 17-1 SU&ATS since 1990. Play on the Baltimore Ravens as a 10* Top Play selection.

Green Bay @ Seattle 8:30 PM ET
Game# 461/462
Play On: Seattle -5.0 (10*)

The Seahawks have been the most dominant team in the NFL over the last 2-seasons. They've gone a stellar 17-1 at Century Link Field and have covered 13 of those 18-games. As a matter of fact, as a home favorite of 7.5 or less, they've gone a perfect 6-0 SU& ATS in their last 6-games, and won those 6 by an average of 22.0 points per game. You also may be surprised to know that the Packers have gone a dismal 1-8 SU&ATS in their last 9-games as an underdog.

Thursday night opening game home favorites have gone a perfect 10-0 straight up, and a very profitable 6-1-3 ATS since the inception of the annual affair. Since the 2004 season, Thursday night non-division home favorites of 4.0 or more have gone a superb 16-5 ATS (76.2%), and have won 20 of the 21-games straight up. Play on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.