5* NY Giants+ over Carolina @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Our bowl game of the week PUSHED here because of the timing of the line insert, but a national level the LOBOS covered based on the Saturday line in most stores.  This situation is real special because I have an old friend that's attending looking for the upset, so with that in mind...The Giants have shot themselves in the foot this season despite centered in the NFC East.  Winning last week over Miami stirred some hope in the Big Apple, but the Giants running game needs some stretch to win SU here.  Carolina is undefeated, 10-3 ATS, 5-1 ATS and looks dominating doing so!  QB Newton is every bit the stellar star we thought when he was a youngster at Auburn. He hates to lose and will take over the game when needed.  Still, over the last ten years these New Yorkers are 4-2 SU & ATS vs. the Panthers...the favorite in the series is 3-3 ATS since 2006.  Also, changing roles from one year to the next accrues value this time to New York.  Carolina played 9 games last season on the road...they were the UNDERDOG IN ALL GAMES!  In 2015 with the change road SOS schedule they have given -3, -3, -3-1/2, -1 and -5-1/2...ALL AGAINST LOSING TEAMS...Carolina lost ATS last time out on the highway versus New Orleans with the heaviest price of -5-1/2.  We must remember the lines makers are human also, and they find difficult to change character until there is a definitive long-term picture with corresponding results.  Note, here the line is only -4?  Carolina is 7-1 ATS vs. NFC, NYG 6-2 in December...more importantly playing in New York going back decades has always been a difficult venue for winning marque teams...There is no doubt Carolina has MOTO pass to a PERFECT season, but the immense pressure of the construct will show and give Eli and company a great chance to win the WHOLE GAME...Good Luck!

FREE TOTAL:  Carolina/NYG OVER 

4* JETS/Titans OVER 42-1/2

This is somewhat of a worrisome number considering the Titans fly as far as Mariota takes them, especially with big plays.  Like the fact the New Yorkers are coming off a  major cross town win over the Giants, so they will be high here.  In fact, the Jets are 6-2 OVER L8, 5-1 OVER vs. AFC and 4-1 OVER vs. .

121315

10* Pittsburgh +3 (105), nothing less….over Cincinnati @ 1:00 Eastern

Spent many years doing weekend radio in the “Steel City” accruing friends and contacts!  All I can tell you is, they are buzzing about Big Ben and the Steelers.  Granted it plays right into the Las Vegas line movement that has the number down to +2-1/2 at the Westgate on the Strip.  We specified you must have +3 to qualify this situation as a GOY!  Granted the Bengals have had a solid season but, the last two weeks Pittsburgh is playing Super Bowl caliber football.  The Bengals show 10-2 SU in the division, the Steelers suffering without Big Ben 7-5 SU.  Visiting Pittsburgh is not awed by the site or Cincinnati winning and covering the last three in the series, covering 4-of-5 on the road.  In addition, historically Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has been money in the bank as a road underdog against a unit off a SU/ATS win.  Last week the Bengals chewed up the Browns 37-3, so we expect somewhat of a slow start for Cincy here in the first quarter…Remember Pittsburgh leads the series 55-35.  Critical is the Steelers secondary which has been hurt by the big play this season, so look for these two, despite weather, to trade points all day….We close with the Bengals 1-7 ATS in week #14, with Pittsburgh 13-2-1 ATS in Cincinnati…Now you can understand the heavy money overload the last two days…Good Luck, and thank you!

(474) 10* San Diego -4, not higher...over Chicago

The Chargers return home after a 3-point road loss to the Baltimore Ravens back on November 1st.  The last time they played on Monday Night was back on October 12th here, losing 24-20 to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Overall HC Mike McCoy’s unit shows up 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS.  The Chicago Bears travel to the west coast after losing at home to the Minnesota Vikings on November 1st.  They are 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS this season.  They have recent losing numbers ATS in the month of November, and the Vikings loss should bring a letdown despite the MN lights and the travel.  Plus, defensively they are allowing almost 29 points per game.  Chicago shows 8-16 ATS as an underdog and 9-14-1 ATS in non-division games.  This is the first Monday edition for the Bears in 2015.  During the last ten years the series is 1-1 SU & ATS.  San Diego has dropped four straight to Baltimore, Oakland, Green Bay and Pittsburgh, so they will be sky high for a chance to break their deficit run and show 5-0 SU vs. the NFC and 3-1 ATS at home on MNF.  Granted WR Allen is out and the OL is being restructured, but this will only heighten the determination of QB Rivers who has helped pull the Chargers together in past losing runs.  Without RB Forte in the game, the Bears running attack has suffered….Look for a high scoring game San Diego 37-29.

5* PHILLY/Dallas UNDER 44

NFL BEST BET TOTAL....BDS

Cashed a nice 3-1 ticket in CFB yesterday led by our SU/ATS 10* winner on Nebraska. Tonight the Eagles travel to Dallas after being smashed by the Pokes in the early season up at the Linc. QB Romo is still not in the lineup, and the jargon around Cassel having two wins against the Eagles means zero here. I will say the Pokes, other than Romo, have improved physically as a team. Before the 13-12 home loss to Seattle last week, the "D" had been waxed by quality quaterbacks sending the unit downhill. I believe they have regained some confidence, have REVENGE supporting the complete team, but Dallas will play conservatively on offense.  With that in mind the Eagles scoring defense is solid...19.6 points per game to date, and play against their weakest offensive test on the road this season.

4* NYG/Tampa Bay UNDER 49-1/2

NFL KEY TOTAL MOVE...BDS

This time around we look two defensive units that were thrashed last week for over 500 yards of total offense...Therefore, we have the increasing total price and public following driving the number higher...VALUE!  We have contributing teams with total records of 5-2 and 4-3 OVER this season, but the Giants during the regular season after scoring 40+ are on 4-0 UNDER run. Now this becomes more complex since NYG has travel again down South.  Defensively JPP is back on defense...Yes, from the SU standpoint the Bucs do have an edge....TB shows off a road SU/ATS win vs. the Falcons.  The Bucs are 10-3 UNDER the total when booked as an underdog. The series has gone UNDER in 5 straight, while the Bucs are 7-0 UNDER in November. When assess the Giants could be fragmented today...GO UNDER!

3* Pittsburgh -5-1/2 over Oakland

Tried to play this using the money line on this site, but could not acquire same. This is the reason for the moderate valuation of the Steelers chances of covering the subject number vs. traveling Oakland. The Raiders smashed the Jets last week as I and all the system players hit the highway.  NY was just not ready for the ball position of Oakland!  Here the situation is reversed as now the under valued Raiders travel east to facing a unit that is 4-4 SU in a division chasing the 8-0 Bengals. To say this is a 'MUST WIN' for Pittsburgh is an under statement!  Last time out Big Ben and company dropped a horrid 16-10 encounter to...CINCY.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS after Cincinnati and 4-1 ATS vs. West coast unit at home during the regular season. The Raiders come in 4-12-1 ATS off a SU win.  With Pittsburgh at home and in rebound mode, we will back the STEEL CITY GANG!

10* MINNESOTA -1 over St. Louis @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL TOP PLAY SUNDAY...BDS

Don't forget our top play Monday Night in the NFL. We are hitting 64% in the league.  Today the Rams travel to Minny in a "must win" situation as they show two games behind Arizona in the division. The Vikings 5-2 SU are just one game behind the Packers.  Again last week the Vikings did the job running the football for 147 yards on the road vs. Chicago. Knowing HC Fisher of the Rams quite well, look for the defense to stack the box tyring stop that edge.  This will allow QB Bridgewater more time and openings for the passing game...Offensively, the Rams can never win big games consistently unitl QB Foles starts hitting over 200 passing taking pressure off the running game.  STL won 27-6 last week over disoriented SF, and the public has bought in buying us real value that is on a 5-0 SU perfect run at home, 6-0 ATS in the same building. Until Foles proves us wrong...MINNESOTA!

4* Cleveland/Cincinnati OVER 45-1/2

First off, the QB change should might allow more scoring for Cleveland, but certainly create defensive opportunities for the Bengals (7-0) because Johnny does carry the ball outside his body when running outside.  Trivial point? Don't bet against it!  This season the Bengals are rolling after a low scoring road win last last week vs. Pittsburgh, the Browns (2-6) were smashed at home 34-20 by Arizona one of the very best units in the NFL...CLASS "A" for sure.  This season the Browns have gone OVER @ a 7-1 clip, the Bengals 5-2 OVER.  Cleveland beat Cincinnati last year on Thursday night, so you can believe Cincy will not be flat. Further, the Brownies problems exist offensively with the 5th worst rushing offense and a pass defense that gives up the mid-range pass with frequency.  Interesting tonight, is what variable can and will "Johnny Football' bring to this game, his natural maturity should help the Browns when they cross mid-field.  Plus, Cleveland is 5-1 OVER off a SU loss, Cincy 4-1 OVER off a SU win. The series is 5-3 OVER L8.

4* NY Giants +4 nothing less...over Philadelphia @ 8:30 Eastern

Yesterday our 10* late move was right on as we waited for the LB starters for Seattle before making a play.  With their MLB being out the run chase and read went south for the home standing Seahawks. You see, the Panthers were outstanding on 3rd down running the football, eventually allowing for their passing attack to take home the cash at the end.  Our other selections losers no less, Arizona OVER, the Cardinals were on the Steerlers nine yard line with under a minute and could have generated a nice back door for us...not so, as all day the Steelers stifled their running game forcing QB Palmer in difficult down and distance situations.  The Buffalo call, was a bad beat for sure, the 'Cats really do show like a prime edition this football season.

Tonight, we are uning the Giants plus the points, knowing the line dropped from +5-1/2.  Not excited by the change in value, but the latest is #13 will play for the Giants. No matter this is a division game and when Philly and NYG come together it is a war!  The Giants are 8-1 ATS vs. the NFC team with a losing record and 8-1 ATS as an NFC East unit off off a SU victory.  You might note that NYG is double revenge...NYG!

5* (254) Buffalo +3-1/2 over Cincinnati (A)

NFL: 8-1-1 ATS...NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

The Bengals were in a similar situation last week laying -3 to talented Seattle surviving in OT 27-24. We note, the Sea Chickens were afforded a fumble recovery for a TD close to the Bengals goal line, which the game in balance for the visitor. This is desperation game for HC Rex Ryan who plotted through five games with a 3-2 mark (2-3 ATS). The wins were against hapless Miami (R), Tennessee (R) and Indianapolis in week #1...27-14 on this same field as a +1-1/2 underdog. The Bills led 24-0 in the third quarter and then coasted to a huge win. The Bills held Indy to 64 yards rushing generated by the big lead and QB Luck, but the Colts supplied three key turnovers. So, my suggestion here is that Bills need to jump in early and secure the lead and emotional props which comes from playing in from of their rabid home fans.

Cincinnati comes in 5-0 SU mark 4-0-1 ATS. Their only game booked as an underdog was against the forgiving defense of Baltimore (+2) in 28-24 in Grab Town. The Bengals have defeated 2-3 Oakland, 2-3 San Diego, 1-4 Baltimore, 1-4 KC and 2-3 Seattle...not "one" winning team. Granted the Bengals are #1 in total offense...29.6 ppg. Recall, since 2013 the Bills defense leads the NFL in sacks and interceptions....and they improved their DVOA numbers ranked #10 this week with the Bengals #14...If the Buffalo defense disallows the big play, the Bills win this SU. The defensive deficiencies against the rush can be altered by TOP from the offense unit with RB McCoy and the more mobile E. J. Manuel at QB...No matter, even if Taylor runs the show the Bills will be highly jacked.

There a few old tech systems play into Buffalo. But, more important the Bengals who are 0-5 ATS as road chalk laying 3 or more, should fall to the emotional Bills and a celebratory crowd. Good Luck.

(103) 4* Atlanta -3-1/2…buy ½ point, if possible… over New Orleans @ 8:25 Eastern

If it wasn’t for the Julio Jones hamstring this would be a 5* GAME OF THE WEEK type angle, but considering the overall picture the Falcons are the play.  Atlanta is one of the 6 NFL teams that is undefeated (5-0), but we note the wins have come against the “legion” of the NFL East.  In addition, they show 4-1 ATS.  Home standing New Orleans is 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS after being waxed by the upstart Eagles in Philadelphia last weekend.  Some critical fundamental stats to remember, Atlanta is ranked #3 in total offense with a 32.4 point average.  Defensively, the Saints are rated #30 vs. the rush allowing on average 136 yards per.  Interesting RB Freeman is back in the lineup for the Falcons.  Atlanta is 2-0 SU on the road this year, 5-0 ATS L5 Thursday games.  Although the home team is 6-1 ATS in the series, the Falcons have dominated lately going 4-1 ATS.

5* CLEVELAND/BALTIMORE 'OVER' 42
In some places off-shore the number has down to 42, and yes most have 42-1/2.  And of course the once stoggy Browns are traveling from the west coast off a rough loss to the "Padres" and QB Phil Rivers.  What adds to the math Cleveland has shot OVER in 4 straight, while the Ravens have additional rest showing up at home. Going back in this series, the Ravens have won 16/20...9-1 SU on this field...My point, they play well historically against Cleveland, which can only mean a more effective offensive showing than their visiting hated opponent. Also, look at the Ravens schedule, Denver, Oakland, Cincinnati and again, last week at Pittsburgh...Now QB Flacco gets to take apart the seems of the Browns secondary. Value? The series TOTAL has gone UNDER 9 straight...but, both defenses are very susceptible to the pass which will include, mind you, turnovers...HIGH!

5* Cleveland +7-1/2 over San Diego

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS...Analysis to follow!

4* Washington+ over Philadelphia

NFL UPSET ALERT

BDS

Note...We may have another game later on this morning, right now this is our third selection with the 10* GOY and 5* GOW...Good Luck, and thank you all.

10* NYG+ 5-1/2 or +6 vs. Buffalo @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE YEAR

BDS

This is critical and please note, if you can buy 1/2 point, please do so as soon as possible. No matter this play stands at +5-1/2 as a TOP PLAY. In this situation we have the developing Giants who are just 1-2 SU on the season vs. the 2-1 Bills. In our updated power ratings the Bills do have an edge over the Giants currently because of their #1 rushing offense.  But, I believe in SU talent the Giants are dead even with QB Eli Manning giving NY a clear differential.  Buffalo is technically void at 7-19-1 ATS off a SU win, while the Giants are 29-13-2 ATS in October. With the overlay feel we have a HUGE EDGE with NYG and to me it is quite obvious...NYG!

10* Tennessee over Indianapolis

Note, we are updating the NFL earlier this week because of injury update...QB Mariota appears to be 100%...update later on Saturday...Good Luck.

10* Top Late Money Move

BDS

5* Indianapolis -6-1/2 over NY Jets

MNF SELECTION

BDS

Want to realize some value accrued over night with the line dropping from -7, especially considering the Colts are at home and off a SU road loss to Buffalo.  Further, we note in game #1 the Jets offensively earned 46.25% rushing yards as part of their overall total yardage output vs. a confused Cleveland club.  New York used their running game (154) to control tempo against an adjusting defense.  The won easily 31-10 in New York creating 5 turnovers to bring home an impressive victory.  But, as we know there can be a great division between week #1 and week #2 results.  Versus Buffalo on the road the Colts last week were stymied on the ground (under 4.0 YPC), while, the Bills received great games from Taylor, Harvin and Williams.  Indy was hurt by QB Luck abandoning the running game.  But, the talented signal-caller should take advantage of DB Cromaarite who has been slowed by an injury.  The Colts generated just 25% running plays last week because they fell behind early 24-0.  We look for a critical change in play calling and a more aggressive Indianapolis to susutain a 10-point victory.  This is a critical bounce back game for the Colts, no less in prime time where they show 16-6 ATS.  As chalks on Monday they show 9-2 ATS...Indianapolis!

5* Seattle +3-1/2 not lower...over Green Bay

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS...Analysis to follow, Good Luck!

10* Philadelphia over Dallas

NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

No other games means as much to the fans in Philadelphia as does this battle with Dallas at the Linc. Historically, NFC East games have been wars to say the least, but this has added meaning considering that RB Murray a former Cowboy, now plays for the Eagles. In addition, the Birds are comng off a SU loss vs. Atlanta. While the Pokes show off a miraculous 27-26 win over NYG.  No doubt the Eagles can not afford to fall 0-2 in the loss column considering all that is riding on the season.  Granted the underdog is 2-7 ATS in the series, while Dallas is a super 6-1-1 ATS in their first road game of the season.  But, they are 0-4 ATS after facing the Giants...MOST IMPORTANT THE EAGLES HAVE A HUGE EMOTIONAL EDGE, especially that Dez Bryant is out. 

261
4* Houston+ over Carolina
NFL KEY ROAD WARRIOR
BDS
Not afraid to challenge the number and the Panthers at home. Remember they are without Luke today, and play into a unit with a changing starter at QB in Mallet. He was the starter before the much talked about issue that moved him into #2 behind Hoyer. Hoyer was horrible last week early as the Chiefs buried the Texans, as we predicted. Mallet led Houston late for a few scores. Okay, Carolina did win last week on the road 20-9, but managed just 105 yards rushing

LATE PHONE RELEASE

10* DENVER+3..nothing less over KC

I know Andy Reid better than any coach in the NFL, and I can tell you this is not his spot. Look at all the times in the past that Reid has suffered ATS losses laying a small price at home. Plus the KC victory was misleading vs. over valued Houston. On the other side, Denver beat a SUPER BOWL entry Baltimore holding them to 69 yards rushing. Granted the Broncos did not have a great day rushing the football, but remember Baltimore had the #4 rush defense last season (88.3). I love dogs in the early going that have the advantage at the line of scrimmage. TECHS: KC -6 or under, a prolific 1-11 ATS, while Denver shows 11-1 ATS on the road vs. AFC West units...TAKE THE POINTS.

5* TAMPA BAY/Tennessee UNDER the total

Becasue of the frosh quarterbacks in this encounter, there has been simply too much hype to expect a high scoring game, and the line asserted by the Strip is fully understood. Forgetting past histories its advisable from my standpoint that the offenses will be somewhat limited looking for field position etc. chances...Remember TB has gone UNDER in 5 straight at home, while Tennessee has been an UNDER play of late...more focused on the road setting and an offense that will not be so wide open...UNDER!

091315

Play on:  4* Jacksonville (474) +3-1/2 over Carolina

Realize the QB difference, but like the home field, the price and all the emotion the Jaguars will throw into this all important game #1 encounter.  Feel the offense for Carolina is somewhat limited because of recent injuries, and therefore must focus on the talents of QB Cam Newtown.  From the talent department the Jags improved from 2013-to-2014, and now have a viable QB in Bortles who continues to show his developing talent.  I’m not saying Jacksonville will trade points with Carolina, but if their defense is much improved as our reports indicate, a SU win here would be no surprise…The Jags are 8-3 ATS the first game of the season, 7-3 in that role as an underdog.  Carolina is 0-6 ATS in game #1 as a favorite.

Analysis later this week.

5* Seattle+1*** (102) over New England @ 6:30 Eastern

….A.K.A “Deflate Gate”

Once the Super Line hit the sportsbooks the money seemed to be going to the side of the Patriots.  However, our good friend in Las Vegas mentioned the High Rollers that he does business with were all over the Seahawks.  Just keep that in mind for now.

Going back to the recent Conference Championship games, we note the Patriots destroyed Indianapolis and shutdown QB Luck to boot 45-7.  NE finished on a 1-3 ATS run after covering vs. the Colts.  Seattle defeated Green Bay 28-22 in a valued performance by QB Rodgers.  Seattle did not cover, but finished with a super 7-of-8 ATS mark.

It’s Thursday as we write our game analysis.  We find out the fire alarm system in the hotel has gone off twice, maybe three times, since the Patriots arrived in Vegas.  Other distractions include QB Tom Brady being sick.   No matter the Patriots are 14-4 SU, while the Seahawks bring the same record in play.  Seattle is the 12th team to repeat as a Super Bowl entrant.  The Patriots won back-to-back Super Bowls in 2004-2005. New England is 0-4 ATS in their last four Super Bowl encounters, and 4-11 ATS in playoff games.  In addition,   NE is 1-9 ATS on grass.  One critical stat fact is Brady’s incomparable 20 playoff wins but, he is only 10-8 SU since those Super Bowl wins. 

My favorite player in the NFL is QB Russell Wilson who brings energy that can change the tempo and the result of a football game every time out with his running abilities.  He is a PERFECT 10-0 SU against other quarterbacks who have won the SUPER BOWL.  On offense the Pats crushed Indy by running the football creating huge gaps for Brady to throw into.  Believe this will not be the case on Sunday as Seattle has held the opposition to an average of 87 yards a game.  This will force Brady to look more down the field into the solid Seattle defensive secondary.  Key for the Seahawks is their vaunted rushing attack (Lynch) which averages 170 yards a game.  Seattle comes in +10 in turnover margin, New England +15.

We look for a huge running day by RB Lynch this is the Seahawks way to control the tempo keeping Brady on the sideline.  Remember the group from New England is averaging 30 points per game, so Seattle can’t afford to trade points and expect to win.  The Seahawks are 10-3 ATS on grass. The UNDERDOG in the Super Bowl is 10-3 ATS.  Just as important, we know Seattle travels well, so expect the crowd to be supporting Seattle loudly. 

***Line based on the Westgate sportsbook at the time of this analysis..Good Luck.

10* Indianapolis +7 nothing less....over New England

Most will look at this set up and assume a Patriots win and cover, considering the Colts will be playing back-to-back weeks on the road. We'll give the public domain the head nod as they back the overall more talented team being at home.  However, we note inside this series the UNDERDOG has been the play running at 14-5-2 ATS.  In addition, our key game changer is the fact QB Luck is not a standstill signal-caller, he will roll out, option and boot leg.  This will cause problems for the NE defense that was not an issue last week vs. Flacco...Believe this factoid insures the Colts and Patriots will be playing a dead even game until the final buzzer.  Now add in the Patriots spread record in Conference Championship games of 0-5 ATS and you have a MAJOR ANSWER to the right side of this contest.  Our AFC GAME OF THE YEAR is Indianapolis over New England.

111815

(302) 4* Seattle -7 not higher…over  Green Bay @ 3:05 Eastern

We used the Seahawks in these pages last weekend, but they needed a long INT for a touchdown to grab the cash in the 4th quarter. Clearly, Carolina proved how wrong the national talking heads were about their abilities on the playing field.  But, just like last week Seattle will need to bring it defensively again to defend their Super Bowl crown in the upcoming 2015 edition. Since the beginning of December the Seahawks have been the #1 NFL defense in total yards allowed and in points surrendered.  This is the Packers chief overall concern as Seattle is on a monster 25-2 SU run at home. The Seahawks have won seven straight kept the opposing offenses under control limiting five of the teams to seven points or less.   My favorite player in the NFL is QB Wilson and the leader is 41-13 SU as a starter.  SEATTLE has a huge edge playing their second playoff game in the post season at home, they’re rested and successful with a high level of confidence, especially with their defense healthy.  Granted the Seattle offense centers on Wilson and Marshawn Lynch (1,300+), but electric Wilson gives Seattle an added edge considering Rodgers (no matter success) will not be 100%.  For Green Bay all we can say is it was a team effort vs. Dallas, but the Pokes really lost the game in the first half when they failed to take control of the game with Rodgers obviously gimpy.  As always it will be a high level challenge for the Packers to go into Seattle and win.  When QB Rodgers (4,381) is healthy his 38 touches are a stat to revel over, but if not, GB will need to use RB Lacy often.  The former SEC running back has 9 touches this season with 1,139 yards.  His counter balance on the outside is Jordy Nelson (1,519) who brought home 13 touches to support Rodgers’ arm abilities.  The last time these two met was back in September with Seattle winning 36-16 in Seattle.  KEY:  Seattle’s defense held the Packers running attack to 80 yards on the ground. This does not bode well for the Packers, especially considering the home team is 4-1-2 ATS in the series.  Plus Seattle is HOT against the spread in the playoff rounds with a solid 5-1 ATS mark.  Realize the early money is supporting  Green Bay, but we just can’t see Rodgers’ offense not committing key turnovers allowing the Seahawks scoring chances.

NFL AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Play on: 5* Colts/Broncos (120) OVER the total @ 4:00 Eastern

Realize this is a natural move, but it comes out of the norm in the biggest weekend during any NFL season.  It’s the greatness of Manning (despite what the media is broadcasting) vs. Luck of Indianapolis.  The series has been HIGH going 8-1 OVER L9 times out.  Supporting this angle is the fact when the Colts go on the road they have a fairly consistent trend of showing OVER 10-4 exactly.  Historically, Denver has been very consistent at 33-13-1 OVER at home.  Plus the Manning unit is 10-2-1 OVER after allowing 15 or less points.  Good Luck, and thanks for using BDS.

5* Dallas+ over Green Bay

NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

...return later with complete analysis, note the line is thundering down, all because of the injury to QB Rodgers, believe this is an over reaction, as many players in the NFL have sustained similar injuries for periods of time without making noise about said injury.  But, with the over zealous networks searching for intel, the construct formulates the injury as almost "life threatening?" Since we are on Dallas no matter, I am not happy about the exchange rate dropping...I will return tonight with our "game" analysis...Have a great weekend.

4* OVER...

Not buying bs concerning Rodgers abilities to perform at a high level.  Feel we will see turnovers creating opps for both sides of the encounter...Should have each team in the 30's.

011015

Play on:  4* New England (12-4) over Baltimore (11-6) @ 4:35 Eastern

Re:  Baltimore has not played in temperatures less than 38 degrees

The line opened -7-1/2 New England, but has since been driven down to the whole number -7.  Which is to be expected with the Ravens record against the Patriots, and the fact sharps were looking to take numbers rather than laying in this exciting football game.  For those who have had their minds steeped in comet research it is now time for a reality check.  For the Patriots loyal base this is not good news as their favorites have been smashed in recent playoff meetings vs. Baltimore .  Against the spread we find the Ravens 5-0 ATS on the road in playoff games, while inside the series Baltimore is 3-0-1 ATS at New England.  But, we look for those trends to end abruptly. We note, the Ravens arrived this post season with help from the Steelers as their offense was short staffed with RB Bell on the sidelines.  Plus Baltimore was fortunate having DT Ngata return from a four week suspension just in time to face Big Ben.  No matter the Ravens travel to New England full of confidence with a solid coach in Harbaugh and history of playoff successes against the enemy.  The Patriots last played the Ravens in December 2012 accounting for a 41-7 blowout for New England.  It was a great day as the Ravens, who some think are the most disliked team in the NFL fell very hard.  So it is clear why there was immediate line movement for Baltimore (Revenge), their successes against Billy B. and the heightened anticipation with the expelling of the Pittsburgh playoff interests and recent spread history.   Plus the Ravens run defense is holding the opposition to 88.3 yards per game.  So, It is critical for NE to establish their ground arsenal to take pressure off Brady and the banged up receiver corpse. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS at home vs. a team with a >.500 road mark.  While Baltimore shows 2-9-1 ATS after allowing 350+ yards in their last game and 4-11-1 ATS against the American Football Conference.  Looking at each unit the most glaring weakness on either side of the ball is the Baltimore secondary….QB Brady threw 33 touches this year!  New England by 10.

104

Play on: 10* Baltimore/Pittsburgh OVER 46

NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR

BDS

One of the keys in this perception is the fact RB Bell is very doubtful in the game for Pittsburgh.  In addition, the wet weather forecast has brought the money in on the UNDER with line dropping from the opener of 48-1/2 to 45 at the Westgate in Las Vegas.  To be clear both Quarterback Flacco and Roethlisberger have been productive in foul weather players over the years. Plus they are both very experienced quarterbacks. From the rushing standpoint each unit possesses solid running games 4.1 yards per carry for Pittsburgh, and 4.5 yards per carry Baltimore.  Against the pass the Pittsburgh defense shows rated #27 allowing….7.3 yards per pass.  Baltimore is ranked #23…allowing 7.3 yards per pass.  The theory indicators here projects yardage possibilities which will as a norm lead to scoring opportunities.  The series is trending OVER 11-4-1.  In wild card type encounters the Steelers have shot OVER in 5 shot and 11-1 OVER home game playoffs. Finally, the Ravens have shot HIGH at a 5-1 clip in road games vs. >.500 home units.  One final and critical note…I project the subject line at 44-1/2 on Saturday, please pay attention to the weather forecasts for the game.  If you see the WEATHER FORECAST IMPROVING….move on the game...Good Luck and thank you.

122114

4* Arizona+ (130) over Seattle @ 8:30 Eastern

There have been situations this season both in college and pro football that have been close to the unbelievable.  The QB injury problems at Ohio State and Utah State in College Football, and now Arizona in the NFL are clear examples. Sunday night the third string QB Ryan Lindley (1-3 as starter) of Arizona gets the call against the #1 scoring defense of Seattle (17.3).  By the way, the Seahawks have held the opposition to under 273 yards per game overall.  Arizona (11-3) is ranked 25th in overall offense (20.3), and have difficulties at times this season scoring points.  Over the last 5 weeks Arizona has been held to 12.8 points per game.  Where Arizona (10-4) is not so-so is on defense as they’ve held nine opponents to seventeen points or less.  No matter, Cardinals have been a resilient team behind HC Bruce Arians.  In their initial game, this season up in Seattle the Seahawks shutdown Arizona 19-13.  Last year Seattle won 34-22 in Arizona, while the Cardinals won at Seattle by a 17-10 count.  This should be a low scoring (36) game with RB Williams trying to control the tempo for the Cardinals offense.  Technically, speaking the bad news for Seattle is their 1-4 ATS mark during week #16.  Arizona has some real strong points as they show 6-0 ATS at home (7-0 SU) AND 7-1 ATS during the month of December.  In the series the home team has covered 5-of-7.  Finally, Arizona is 12-3 ATS vs. the NFC…TAKE ALL THE POINTS…Good Luck.

Play on: 4* San Diego/San Francisco UNDER 41

A very complex set of circumstances surround this battle, especially those affecting the focus of Niners HC Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers show off BB brutal losses, and now must respond again on the road in a night time affair.  With the issues inside the San Francisco offense feel you will see a very conservative game plan.  The Chargers too will look not to make mistakes in this national game, and must respect Rivers injured back. Technically, it's all one-sided in the UNDER construct. Let's look at the Chargers who show 6-0 UNDER on Saturday's and 4-1 UNDER in the month of December. SF is almost PERFECT with the UNDER hitting 5 straight in their games.  Plus they have shot UNDER 5 straight at home, while carving out a solid 7-1 UNDER grade off a SU loss...LOW!

(102) 4* Jacksonville -3 (buy 1/2 point, if the line is -3-1/2 ) over Tennessee

Okay, we know the Jags have not covered the number as a chalk in 46 games.  However, they are different breed in 2014.  Obviously, much more competitive on the offensive side with the ability of QB Bortles to throw over the top. The Titans show after losing 8 straight game, and now may have to use the inconsistent Henne. No matter, Tennessee is a disgraceful 3-13-2 vs. the AFC and 7-19-1 ATS in the month of December.  Finally, the Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in the series. Please make sure you can buy down to -3, it will surely help...Good Luck!

Play on: 4* New Orleans/Chicago OVER the total

Okay, we know the Saints are in the hunt for NFC South, and the Bears are wasting away.  No matter, with QB Cutler and QB Brees doing business we fully expect a HIGH SCORING GAME.  The series has gone OVER in 5-of-6 with the Saints 5-0 OVER in their most recent 5 games after giving up more than 30 points.  In addition, New Orleans has shot OVER in 6-of-the-last-7 games vs. the NFC and 5-of-6 OVER on the road. For the Saints the total has gone OVER at an 80% clip L10 games.  Chicago has gone OVER in 5 straight during December and 9-of-12 OVER vs. the NFC.  In the last 31 games the Bears have gone OVER 22 times...We are accruing some line value today as the public is going low...GO HIGH!

5* Seattle over San Francisco

I won't spend much time talking about this key angle for Sunday. The basic facts have the Seahawks (9-4) on a 6-1 SU run and looking for control in the NFC.  San Francisco(7-6) and QB Kapernick have gone the other way fundamentally, while dropping three straight ATS.  In fact, Seattle has covered 6 straight in the series, and all though this is DD, we still love the Seahawks, especially since their 33-16 ATS at home in December. Good Luck.

10* Buffalo+ over Green Bay

The Packers fit the mold on Sunday as they show as a road chalk the #1 unit in betting circles.  I'm not degrading the handicap of the public domain.  But, from the technical standpoint the Packers are 2-5-1 ATS after playing on Monday night followed by a Sunday encounter.  On Monday I explained in these pages why Atlanta+ would cover against Green Bay. It's their forgiving defense which causes their on field issues. When we add in the home (Buffalo) field edge in series of 4-0 ATS, you can ascertain my reasoning. From the scheduling standpoint the Packers do not have a "stress" game until Detroit shows down the road. Finally Green Bay has never won in Buffalo.

4* St. Louis (325)/Arizona UNDER the total@ 8:25 Eastern

NFL KEY RELEASE

BDS

Normally, would not go into an encounter when St. Louis (10-3) is booked as a chalk against a foe with the ‘Zona pedigree.  However, can’t help noting the Rams (6-7) have penned a shutout in each of their last two games vs. Washington and Oakland 76-0 to be exact. In addition, they show in DOUBLE REVENGE after taking it on the chin from Cardinals 31-14 & 30-10.  We know the Cardinals are off a creditable win over Kansas City 17-14 in Arizona.  Prior ‘Zona had lost BB road games to Atlanta and Seattle, and believe it or not, the Falcons had more effective numbers than Seattle on both sides of the ball.   Interesting our power ratings show higher numbers for St. Louis than New Orleans, Minnesota and Miami.  Feel we all have to show some respect for the Rams.  But, where the edge is for both teams is on the DEFENSIVE end.  In fact, in the last 4 games Arizona has held opponents  to 52 points overall, which is 13 points a game.  Arizona will play a conservative game with QB Stanton at the helm.  Believe you will see a field position game. In the series the total has been a conservative venue 9-4 UNDER L13. Oh, we forgot the Rams are 21-5-1 UNDER in December.  Arizona is 4-1 OVER off a SU win indicates a low scoring defensive battle…GOOD LUCK.

110814

Play on:  4* Atlanta+ (179) Green Bay @ 8:30 Eastern

Monday Night Best Bet

Tonight 5-7 Atlanta travels to Green Bay to face the 9-3 Packers in a NFC battle.  Believe it or not the Falcons with their losing record are the leaders in the sorry NFC South.  No unit in the NFC South has a positive net point differential.  On the road Atlanta is 2-4 SU, while the Packers show 6-0 SU at home. The Falcons have a real rough close affecting their playoff hopes with GB, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Carolina left. Atlanta has taken 3-of-4 SU.  Green Bay does lead the series with Atlanta going 14-12 SU, but the Falcons have covered 4 straight in GB. Ironically, if the Packers lose tonight they’ll end up tied for the division lead with Detroit who is 9-4. High flying Green Bay comes in the darlings of their fan base.  QB Rodgers is still #1 in QBR with a 118.6 rating carrying 32 touches and 3,325 yards.  By the way, the three interceptions thrown by Rodgers have come in the three loses by the Packers.  Overall, the Pack is ranked #15 in Total Offense with 377.9 yards a game and 31.7 points per game.  Opposing Atlanta has a productive attack ranked #17 in Total Offense with 374 yards a game and 24.3 points per game.  Defensively, the Pack has key edges in Total Yards allowed with GB 336.8 yards per game vs. Atlanta 403.2 yards given up on average.  Total points per game allowed, GB 20.9 points vs. Atlanta’s 24.9 points. Still, there are dividing technical numbers when we realize the road team is 7-1 ATS in the series with the underdog 6-2 ATS.  Finally, in an odd angle the Packers are 1-7 ATS vs. a losing unit which illustrates they show flat sometimes vs. so-so units. Green Bay has Atlanta, Buffalo and Tampa Bay left before facing Detroit in the final game of the season.  We expect Green Bay not to be 100% focused, despite the MNF venue…TAKE THE POINTS!