5* Green Bay (112) over Minnesota @ 1:00 Eastern

Xmas eve and we’re loaded with football to say the least.  Arch rival Minny travels to GB where they are 2-5 ATS L7 times out.  Granted the underdog has been the recent side but, the line is telling us something from the math and power rating standpoint.  Minnesota, after a solid start this season has fallen on hard times dropping seven of the last nine and punishing their backers.  The Vikings are #3 rated unit in total defense, so they should have some success containing Rodgers but, not at this price with so much at stake.   The Vikings are 1-4 ATS L5 on the road, while GB is 7-2 ATS during December.   Further, the Packers complete with a 4-1 ATS mark on Saturday and 6-2 ATS in week #16.  These are strong indicators they finish strong in the money column and the improved should help the Packers here.

This is our ugly total for Sunday knowing the "Padres" had to travel to Cleveland to pick up an easy ticket.   However, they are banged up at the skilled positions, and can't trust "known" situations in week #16 ever...UNDER!

Here we go again with the Bears, as I have been looking for spots to play the unit.  Now that former Eagles QB Barkley has started the improve, feel the Bears are in a nice spot to catch the 'Skins napping.  Remember, Washington is 0-4 ATS after a DD loss at home.  Traveling the next week surely helps our cause.   In fact, they are 0-5 ATS in this price range.  If you haven't noticed Chicago is an amazing 5-0 ATS as a home underdog in their building this season.  With week #16 in mind, BEARS!

4:05 Eastern

5* (321) New Orleans +3 over Arizona

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Hard to believe the line is only three out in the desert, but nevertheless we’ll go with the traveling Saints (5-8).  Arizona shows the chalk with a similar 5-7-1 record, but 5-2-1 SU at home with +22-point differential overall this season.  Back to New Orleans as they line up +7 in point differential on the year with a 2-4 SU mark on the road. Remember, though, these type road clubs, in this price range off a loss come out and play well as a norm the next week, and Arizona is just 4-10 ATS L14 home and 1-6 ATS L7 times out.  Saints a productive 6-0 ATS vs.

10* RAIDERS/Carolina OVER 49, not higher...We note, play this ASAP because as they day develops there will be additional action. You can bet on it.  Remember, QB Carr of Oakland (8-2) wants to improve his mystique against this super long--time defensive unit that is not the same this time around.  Oakland is #5 in offensive yardage, and the once vaunted Panthers defense has slipped to #15 in yardage allowed.  Now the Panthers have to face a red hot foe that wants the money.  And, don't forget Oakland a monster 4-0 OVER L4 annd 11-3-2 OVER against under .500 unit.  Also, they are 18-5-3 OVER in November.  The 4-6 Panthers show 15-6 OVER on the road, and 6-1 in road sets vs. a >.500 home club.  Good Luck!

10* New Orleans+ 3-1/2 over Carolina

Held off until we garnered the latest injury, and as we thought the Panthers have key injuries on sides of the ball, and their secondary should be destroyed QB Brees.  Like the way the Saints are playing now despite some short comings.  Good Luck.

263/264
5* Green Bay/Tennessee OVER the total @ 1:00 Eastern
Let's face with Rodgers and Mariota (scored more TDs than another player in the last five weeks) at the quarterback positions we have two schools of divergent attack units looking to cross the goal line at all times.  So, we can only look OVER the total no matter the weather conditions.  The series has shot OVER 4-1-1 L6 times out.  Also, the Packers have gone OVER 4-1 L5 off a SU loss, and Tennessee comes OVER L6 games out.  We close with the Titans generating extra number supports shooting OVER @ a 9-1-1 clip on grass...HIGH BABY!

(463/464) 5* SF/New Orleans UNDER the total of 53 @ 4:05 Eastern

Our math clearly indicates an under 50 point total here.  Remember the Niners

will look to run the football to keep the Saints "throwing" offense off the field.  NO

is running the football @ 3.6 yards per carry which extends the offensive

production to the passing game, obviously.  If the Niners can improve their

pressure on Brees we could see a "low" scoring game.  Coach Kelly favor ball

as his methodology.   These two have not played each other dating to 2014, so

early there will be "hunt and peck" look at their schemes for both.  Realize

the series has gone OVER 8 straight, but can't help but LOVE the Niners

8-1 UNDER mode after a DD loss at home. And, the NO 5-1 UNDER

rotation in road sets...UNDER, Good Luck.

307

4* Atlanta (307) over Tampa Bay @ 8:25 Eastern

Thursday night the Falcons (5-3) show off a huge mind bending 33-32 win over Green Bay down south.  Whereas, the home standing Bucs (3-4) look to recharge after a 30-24 OT defeat versus visiting Oakland.  The better football team coming in, Atlanta shows with a 5-3 SU & ATS in 2016.  Tampa Bay fields a 3-4 SU & ATS legend.  In this series, the chalk has covered 8-of-11 in Vegas.   By the way, out of the two the Bucs have the more difficult emotional assignment coming off an OT loss.  They play with QB Winston 6-14 SU in his NFL starts.  Since the Falcons show off a more positive experience and bring same season revenge, must back QB Ryan and company.  Remember, Atlanta is 5-1 ATS on Thursday and 5-0 ATS in road games.  Good Luck

10/27/16

5* Jacksonville (101) +3-1/2 over Tennessee @ 8:25 Eastern

Theme:  “Grab the Hook with JAX”

Yes, we realize this is a critical home game for Tennessee after losing SU to Cleveland and Indianapolis on this same field.   But, the Jags are 4-1 ATS after their defense collapsed allowing 30 or more points in their most recent contest.  Last week Jacksonville dropped a 33-16 encounter to Oakland down in Florida.  Like the Jaguars, the home standing Titans won back-to-back games but, then lost last week 34-26 at Indianapolis.  Defensively, Tennessee suffers allowing key red zone points.  By the way, JAX defeated Indianapolis in week #4 on the road.    Overall on defense the Jaguars allow just 290 yards (#5) a game, and can win this SU if they hold Tennessee to roughly the same output. And, after surrendering 30 or more points to their most recent opponent Tennessee comes up short in Vegas…1-9-2 ATS, and 2-8-1 ATS L10 as a HOME favorite.  In closing, recall Jacksonville is 8-1-2 ATS in the series and will grab the money here.  Good Luck! 

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(478) 10* Denver over Houston @ 8:30 Eastern

Granted this is not the Broncos best role of late at home, laying points.  However, l’m sure I don’t have to tell you how much it means for Denver to have head coach Gary Kubiak back on the sidelines after suffering complex migraines a few weeks ago.  Going all the way back to his days as a Texas A&M quarterback, the coach has always been a tenacious competitor.  Now his unit shows off back-to-back losses to Atlanta and San Diego, and outstanding quarterbacks in Ryan and Brees.  So, it appears to be a tailored made situation for the Broncos, at home on Monday night.  The young Texans come off a scintillating OT win (26-23) over Indianapolis, and have played the majority (4-2) of their games this season in the friendly confines of NRG Stadium.  Houston is 4-2 on the season (3-2-1 ATS), while the home standing Broncos bring a 4-2 mark both SU & ATS.  With this being such an important game for each unit, one of the keys we look at is the turnover numbers.  Denver is ranked #9 in the NFL (11-8) with a plus three but, visiting Houston is rated #26 (6-10) at minus four.  On the field, and considering the current number in Vegas playing a clean game will be paramount for both teams.  Recently, both Denver and Houston have been losing propositions on Monday night, but the Broncos have covered at a 4-1-1 ATS mark at home and bring a 12-5 ATS off a SU loss.  Finally, the Texans have faced two quality teams this season in New England and Minnesota and were completely blown away.

Buy 1/2 point if you can to reduce this situation to Baltimore -3.  Good Luck with the current scenario. Brad Diamond

(269) 4* Cincinnati+ 3-1/2 not lower, over Pittsburgh @ 1:00 Eastern

Pittsburgh crushed Washington 38-16 after Big Ben threw 3 touches to augment the surprising easy win.  The tables turn this week when the Steelers face one of their arch rivals, the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bengals broke the Jets wings with a 23-22 huge victory at New York in week #1.  Also, if you’re into ATS streaks we welcome you to the Cincinnati side of the ledger….how about 9-0 ATS in road games on-deck.  That is the reason for the conservative home chalk number placed aside Pittsburgh -3-1/2.   The road unit and underdog is on a 3-1-1 ATS roll in the series.  Cincinnati is just 1-4-1 ATS in this building, but shows 6-0-1 ATS in week #2 and 9-2-2 ATS off a SU win.  Despite Pittsburgh having corresponding positive trends, they play Sunday with a 1-5-1 ATS mark on Sunday after a MNF encounter.  This spot calls out Cincinnati!

Note, computer problems, analysis should restart Monday afternoon. Sorry, Brad.

NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

BDS...Note, analysis will return Monday afternoon.

10* JETS +1 (101) over Buffalo @ 8:25 Eastern
AFC THURSDAY GAME OF THE MONTH
Brad Diamond Sports
Yes, Rex Ryan and his Bills have defeated the Jets in 5 straight games.  However, can't even suggest the home team considering they dribbled through 178 yards of total offense against the stout Baltimore defense.  They managed just 11 first downs last week. The Jets played a more talented team in Cincinnati, but lost a buster 23-22. Right now the Jets are higher on our power ranking chart and seem to have sufficient enough defense to limit RB McCoy who slashed them for 112 yards on this same field last November. Also, the Jets defense pressured QB Dalton of Cincinnati in week #1. That's key, putting pressure on the Bills passing game that couldn't throw down field last week against the Ravens.  The Bills are 7-18-1 ATS when they go for under 90 yards rushing in their last game. New York comes in a solid 5-1-1 ATS in week #2 and 6-2-1 ATS vs. the AFC East.  With New York defensive line starting to improve, we'll back the Jets to knock off Rex and company.

5* SAN FRANCISCO+3 over LA

Another historic game on the west coast with the Rams moving back after 21 years in STL.  Although favor a unit with a relocation angle, especially in an old rivalry, still can't trust the inconsistent Rams.  When you figure no adores Chip Kelly any longer since moving to the pro ranks, it unthinkable going with the Duck Dandy.  However, this long and historic series seems to favor the Niners on MNF.  Remember SF is 24-6 ATS on Monday night and 5-0 ATS in week #1 fights.  LA with a good coach still can't avoid the turnover with their 3-12 ATS record in week #1 sets. Good Luck!

4* Dallas/NYG OVER the total

This has been an OVER series in Dallas, to the tune of 7 straight times.  The Pokes have shot OVER 4-1 in the month of September, while the Giants are 4-0 OVER last four times out.  With both teams being inconsistent and the turnover ratio projected to be high...GO OVER!

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5* Miami (6-10) +10-1/2 (471) over Seattle (11-7)…NFL GAME OF THE WEEK @ 4:05 EASTERN

Not afraid to go into the teeth of the Seahawks den knowing we have a Dolphins unit who will come to play for four quarters no matter the score.  Surely, we believe that line assertions -7-1/2 to -10-1/2 have the public thinking blowout, but we simply don’t agree.  The Dolphins finished 6-10 SU last season, exited the coach and now the franchise has invested in first year mentor, and former OC, Adam Gase.  He has a difficult venue to begin his head coaching tenure playing at Seattle and facing the experienced Pete Carroll (7th year) who is 68-40 SU in his coaching career.  The Seahawks lost in the playoffs 31-24 to Carolina, and are anxiously ready to erase the stigma from that game. Last year Seattle was 5-3 SU @ home and 4-4 ATS. Miami went 3-6 SU & ATS in road games last season, but the Dolphins seem more excited about this game with their new HC.    In their three road wins last season, they defeated Washington in week #1, Philadelphia and New England in the final week of the season.  This preseason they appear more satisfied with the continued development of quarterback Tannehill (4,288) who is coming off a nice stat year.  Remember, Miami is 5-1 SU & ATS against the superior Seahawks, and I won’t discount their resolve today knowing their opening against difficult odds CenturyLink Field.  The value for this handicapper is with the points and the Dolphins.

10* Green Bay/Jacksonville UNDER 47

NFL EARLY TOTAL MOVE...BRAD

10* Denver +3 or +3-1/2 (452) over Carolina

452...10* DENVER +3, try to buy 1/2 point to get to three-and-a half. No matter, we like the Broncos as SB Champion is getting points at HOME!  Granted no Manning, but recall 24-10 SB win by Denver illustrated their defense more than the attack unit. Also, the losing unit in Super Bowl virtually never starts strong documented by a 1-14 ATS mark in game #1 of the season. Good Luck this year!

10* DENVER +6..nothing lower over Carolina

We project this battle to be one of the great ones in the storied history of the Super Bowl.  If we look back to last week, it was noted how Carolina dominated Arizona who had key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, missing the "Honey Badger" above all and his incredible "field efficiency" numbers which are off the charts.  Also, QB Palmer still showed signs of the finger injury, no matter what the observers thought.  I have been doing this 40-years and see the Cardinals play all the time, Palmer was no exacting and the stats prove that out.  Granted the Panthers defense had a say in his effectiveness, but early touch in the 2nd half could have changed the "MO" in the game...and we liked Carolina.  Here the Panthers are being solid hard everywhere as the line opened truly at -3-1/2 last Sunday, and is now at the aforementioned incredible transition.  Granted Carolina is the superior physical team, and Cam is the stellar player on the field.  However, we can't discount the gritty ride Denver has had all season, and their sensational defense against QB Brady and the Pats.  The Broncos defense during the challenging regular season held the opponents to 18.2 points per game, and 283 an outing.  They held offenses to a third down conversion ratio of 35% which is more effective than Carolina.  This is critical because of Newton's running ability...If Denver is successful in this aspect of the game...they win SU.  As far as the Denver offense and Manning looking at a slower paced approach (TOP) and with a much different game plan than what was shown against NE...This is really the issue as HC Kubiak will not be out coached in this situation. Remember Denver coming into the season had the #10 SOS vs. Carolina who showed #27.  Granted against the spread in the playoffs the Panthers have a winning mark, but this is CLASSIC UNDERDOG set for this handicapper, as the majority of the nation is taking the Denver abilities for granted which accrues point spread value.  The Broncos are 4-1 ATS vs. winning units, and no matter, I believe they will cash here in a VERY CLOSE GAME!

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NFL CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL OF THE WEEK

10* (313/314) ARIZONA/CAROLINA OVER the total of 47 @ 6:40 Eastern

This “should” be one of the best offensive battles in recent playoff memory.  The Carolina group has garnered 15 wins vs. the Cardinals who show with 13 successes.   It is the most wins logged on a combined basis by two teams in the era of the Super Bowl structure.   Further, they are the first two post season types that have each averaged over 30 points a game.  Our only minor concern is QB Palmer of Arizona who has had problems recently.  But, the Carolina defense maybe a help as they have given up 22, 28 and 24 points in the second half of games over the last six weeks.  Remember, Arizona is 5-1 OVER in the Playoffs.  On the Carolina side of the ball, the Panthers one of a kind QB Cam Newtown has thrown 27 touchdowns and just 1 INT over the last 9 games, he is virtually unstoppable.  And, NFL chalks laying under 10 with a SU record like Carolina have shot OVER in 8 straight playoff games (If you recall, we had 10* CAROLINA OVER as our NFL PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR). In addition, Carolina comes 12-3 OVER vs. the NFC and 4-0 OVER in January.

4* PITTSBURGH +7-1/2 over Denver @ 4:40 Eastern

A unique situation, Big Ben and company accruing value with the best offensive players out because of injuries.  So, you can rightfully understand why the current line gives all sorts of value.  And, not to discount, the situation accrues a level of relaxation for Denver's defense knowing they will not face Brown or Williams...In turn, the Steelers OC has already stated they will have to be very conservative to have a chance Sunday?  I have a gold farm under my house, would you buy that?  You can clearly understand the dog in the series is 6-2 ATS.  In addition, the last time these two met in a playoff game, the STEELERS were a -7-1/2 favorite at Denver.  Now, the number is reversed...VALUE!

10* SEATTLE/Carolina OVER the total

NFL PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR...BDS

Not often we go into two quality defenses looking to go OVER, while expecting a monster result.  But, we must recall these two have recently "scored" the last two meetings 50 & 48 to be exact. With that in mind believe we have Seattle traveling for the 2nd week from the west coast to play an early game which just might bring problems for their defense in the 2nd half.  The Panthers have gone OVER 10/15 this season.  Realize Seattle has gone UNDER 5 straight when the total hits 40+ but, again this situation brings two explosive quarterbacks who bring it all on each down.  Also, the series has gone UNDER 5 straight, but somewhat misleading considering the aforementioned numbers.  Carolina has shot OVER 11-3 vs. the NFC, and 6-0-1 OVER after gaining 350+ yards in their last game. Seattle shows 5-1 OVER L6 playoff games. Look for a surprising HIGH scoring game with weather being co-operative. Good Luck!

Going into the second game Saturday, we are 12-1 in the NFL with our 5* New England winning.  CASHED OUR NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR LAST WEEK..10* MINNESOTA!

4* ARIZONA -7. not higher over Green Bay

Hate going against the stat guys in the office, but the fundamental differences between these two are too much for me to pass up.  First, HC Arians approach to big games is effective and precise. He is a much under rated head master.  Granted the Cards have injuries, but the Packers will fear the force at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  When we chase big playoff games it means so much to have a running game and a defense...DITTO ARIZONA.  Don't be fooled by the easy win last week in Washington by the Pack. yes we were on the right side.  Still, different set of issues facing Green Bay, being on the road for the second straight week. while the Cards healed their bodies and watched their Washington encounter.  The home unit has covered 5-of-6 in the series, while the Cards show an AMAZING 27-12 ATS off a loss by 20+ (Seattle).  If you don't think the EMOTIONAL ANGLE is all Arizona here, my, my...CARDINALS!

5* NEW ENGLAND -5, not higher…(302) over Kansas City @ 4:35 Eastern

NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

Granted the current win streak of 11 games by the Chiefs is a number viewed with great respect.  And, most will consider Kansas City’s 3-1 ATS mark at New England as a go with sign for the Chiefs.  However, overall the Patriots come 12-3-2 ATS home vs. winning road units L17 times out. The crowd favorite KC a horrid 1-6 ATS in NFL playoff games last seven.  New England is 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS L10 playoff games, at home 4-3 ATS in the post season since 2011.  In addition, this is a monster REVENGE game for the Pats and coach Bill Belichick after NE was smashed in KC (2014) 41-14. The Chiefs went out to a 27-0 lead, augmented by 8 sacks of All-Pro quarterback Tom Brady. Also, the last game played in NE was in 2011...34-3 for the Patriots.  During the 2015 regular season KC ranked #27 in total offense just 331+ yards per game, and #26 in total defense allowing just 339 yards a game.  NE rated #6 with 374 yards per game on offense, defensively #24 with 339 yards allowed per outing.  Recall last week vs. Houston the Chiefs capitalized on a QB with virtually few viable scoring drives in that 30-0 loss.  This time around QB Brady and the Patriots have accrued some rest time to heal the numerous injuries sustained during the regular season.  Comparable offensive productivity night and day between Houston and the Patriots.  Finally, Chiefs OL has allowed 46 sacks in 2015, so look for the NE defense to challenge early in passing downs! New England.

5* GREEN BAY over Washington

NFL KEY BEST BET ANGLE

BDS

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10* Minnesota+ (104) over Seattle @ 1:05 Eastern

NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR…BDS

Rarely do we go against the Seahawks, but I believe we have a special situation Sunday afternoon in Minnesota.  To add a little “outside edge” to the battle, the weather projection is estimated to be around zero degrees.  Already, I am thinking about former legendary HC Bud Grant’s approach to this type scenario, but then again the Vikings have that already with their running game and the ability to play one down at a time.  Surely, we are aware of the 38-7 beating the Seahawks put on the Vikings in December on this same field…So, we have same season REVENGE, on the same field in less than perfect weather conditions.  Remember Seattle jumped out early in that encounter and stifled the Vikings run game, which led to throwing the ball in obvious down and distance situations.  This gave the #1 rushing defense even more of situational edge.  Seattle (10-6, 8-7-1 ATS) is on a solid 6-1 SU run coming in with QB Wilson (24/1) in solid form.  In that run the Seahawks out pointed the opposition 224-98.  They have been playing on a high for sure.  RB Lynch (abdominal) will be starting for the first time since November.  Minnesota (11-5, 13-3 ATS) has had some inconsistency but, they were hurt with RB Peterson’s injury.  He is expected to be 100%.  The Vikings (144.9) start with the #4 running game in the NFL.  Defensively, they have held opponents to 18.9 points per game, and are one of the better run defenses in the NFL.  When you consider they are at home Sunday, the unit should be more than ready to cut off the big plays by QB Wilson.  Last year in the NFL playoffs, the underdog went 6-4 ATS.  Granted Seattle comes 5-2 ATS in the month of January, but Minny has been money in the bank at home 10-3 ATS.  And, at home they show a PERFECT 5-0 ATS versus winning road units.  With REVENGE, the weather, home field and the EMOTIONAL EDGE…Take the points!

4* KC -3, not higher over Houston

NFL POWER ANGLE

BDS

4* SEATTLE+ over Arizona

NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

BDS

10* BUFFALO +3, nothing lower over New York

NFL SUPER CONTEST TOP PLAY...8-2 L2 WEEKS

BDS...HAPPY NEW YEAR!

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5* Atlanta (110) +7 or +6-1/2 over Carolina @ 1:00 Eastern

Prefer everyone buying ½ point!  Recently, we have been going against the Panthers looking for their time to drop anchor and pick their tag of “normalcy” and a SU loss…no dice!  Carolina continues to cash SU wins, but the Giants did not give up last week, thankfully.   Here the task gets a little more difficult against a NFC South opponent in Atlanta (7-7) who is going nowhere, so this is there SUPER BOWL!  Clear talent differential for sure, but the running game for the Panthers #3 overshadows the #17 unit for Atlanta.  So, if the Falcons can find their short passing game and control a little better at the line of scrimmage, as they did last week vs. JAX they may win this SU.  After all, we know, even “SUPERMAN” is human!  Also, there is a bit of revenge, double carded if you will with Carolina blasting the home unit 72-3 in the last two encounters.  The Falcons are 6-2 ATS week #16, with the home team 6-1 ATS in the series.  Plus, the Panthers show 0-4 ATS after allowing 150+ yards rushing last time out…ATLANTA!

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Play on:  5* (103) Washington +3 over Philadelphia @ 8:25 Eastern

Okay, the Redskins are a poor road unit, have not played well on the road this season.  However, they have won back-to-back games late in the season and face their most challenging event thus far off a nice roll.  Philly is damaged physically coming in with a weak an injured secondary, let alone a “chasing” LB unit that can’t assimilate a big play when needed. Oh, thin on the DL too. Another injury inside their defensive starter set would cripple their current rotation.  Offensively, QB Bradford is playing well, but trying to overcome a “score” deficit tonight most lightly will change Chip’s game planning!  The only way the Eagles win this, is if they jump up early and control the game?  Series:  Underdog 4-1 ATS, ‘Skins 6-of-8 in Philadelphia.  Also, historically when an Eagles football team is fading at the end of season and coming off a DD loss at home…0-8 ATS. Realize Washington brings conflicting ATS numbers, but “mindset” here all WASHINGTON!

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4* Minnesota (306) over Chicago @ 1:00 Eastern

The Vikings are just 2-4 ATS since 2009 when laying singles in this highly contested division long-time rivalry.  In November Minnesota (-1-1/2) did win out 23-20 at Chicago.  The Bears were limited to just 305 yards in total offense. Overall, Chicago defense allows 5.5 yards per play, 62% completion effectiveness.  So, the visitor will have their hands full again as they face a unit looking to make the playoffs, while playing 3-of-4 really tough games vs. Green Bay, Seattle and Arizona.  Coming in Minnesota is 10-3 ATS overall, 4-2 ATS at home, 9-0 ATS off a SU loss and 12-3-1 ATS in December.  Remember the Vikings average 4.6 yards per game rushing which should be the answer to their ball control keys this afternoon.  Chicago has a sure fire malady in PK Robbie Gould who again last week vs. Washington cost them dearly.  Plus the offense has suffered this season 3rd down…42%.  Chicago being 5-0 ATS as roadies does not give an automatic, especially considering 6-13 ATS record inside the division.