(464)

5* Carolina over Cincinnati @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

The Bengals visit Carolina with a 2-0 record (68/46) sitting in first place in the AFC.  Carolina starts 1-1 (40/39) being tied for 2nd place in the NFS with Atlanta and New Orleans.  Critical here is the fact that Cincinnati will be without RB Mixon, he is their key to a balanced attack. In addition, the Bengals are hurting at key positions.   On the road last week Carolina fell behind Atlanta early down 24-10 going into the 4th quarter, rallied but still came up short 31-24 to “Matty Ice” and company.  In 2017 Carolina dropped their last two games of the season on the road.  Clear indication the Panthers have a better chance at home laying FG or less.  Cam Newtown seemingly always fares better in this building and will get much needed assist from the locals.  And, with Carolina leading the NFL in yards per carry, we expect a ball control game and a lower scoring game than expected.  The Bengals are 5-11 SU in road games, and 1-3-1 ATS L5 when facing the Panthers.   Carolina has won 5 straight games at home and show 5-1 ATS L6 at home.  Lay the small price with the Panthers.  Good Luck.

POWER RATING VALUE....Colts+

4* Cincinnati+ (102) over Baltimore

The Ravens crushed the Bills last week easily as the stat sheet was a little off the true reality.  Baltimore was granted ideal field position on numerous occasions which help make it look much easier than it seemed.  However, game #1 teams winning by four touches or more and then going on the road next week seemingly have trouble responding in a similar fashion.  Also, Flacco only one time in his road outings has been productive offensively has the offense scored more than 10 points.  And, last week the Ravens "D" was helped greatly by the inconsistency of the Bills offensive game plan. The Bengals show at home off a real nice win, and have the running game to balance their offense against the aggressive Ravens. No doubt we will once again see the Cincinnati flanks chase Flacco accruing turnovers and poor field position.  Remember this is a must win season for the coaching staff after a 7-9 in 2017.  But, the Bengals did cover 9-of-16 games last year, and took home the cash last week laying -1.  From our recollections and numbers Cincinnati appears to be the right side tonight.  Forgetting trends and systems, the fundamentals go to the underdog.  GL.

4*  New York+ over Detroit

Normally, would not suggest in week #1 to back a rookie quarterback on the road, however, the Jets (

#3 OVERALL 2017

#8 IN FOOTBALL OVERALL

FINISHED ON MONSTER PLAYOFF RUN WITH 18-3 RECORD

09/05...UPDATE

The stage is set now as QB Foles will be starting for Philadelphia, as we estimated with our early season forecast at +4 Atlanta.  The line has moved down to -2-1/2 Philly.  However, we expect the number to increase Thursday to -3 or -3-1/2.  Now the home team has controlled the series of late from the ATS standpoint.  But, when you take in the obvious fundamental factors, including Foles' mindset and the inactive WR Alshon Jeffrey it's difficult to go against the line valued.  Jeffrey's was a key target for Foles last season digging the QB out of some tough spots.  Also, Super Bowl Champions that start the year against a unit they battled in the prior year playoffs, show a perfect 0-3 SU in game #1.  Technically, the series underdog is 4-1 ATS of late.  Good Luck.

6:30

10* New England (102) over Philadelphia

Super Bowl Selection…BDS

Right off too much early money on the Eagles accrues value for the World Champs.  Granted the recent bowls with NE have been close but, Philly seemingly has less talent than the prior SB combatants. This season the Eagles feasted on the “down” NFC inside their schedule so, we’re hoping there is more line movement down on Philadelphia prior to kickoff.  One of the keys for NE is that Gronk will start adding to the Brady arsenal of targets.  On the Philly side believe you’ll their tenacious defense being over excited generating penalties and players being out of formation.  I don’t have to tell you the Patriots have the experience and quarterback edge.  For the Eagles QB Foles, this maybe a little over his head.  We expect NE to pressure the youngster into mistakes early on to generate havoc in the pocket of the Philadelphia backfield.  Technically, NE shows in an interesting spot at 7-0-1 ATS coming off a home game when they scored under expectations.  In addition, the Patriots are 6-1 ATS on field turf, Philly 2-7.  The Eagles bring a 1-4 ATS record off a SU win. We close with the Patriots 16-5 ATS against winning teams. Good Luck.

(313) 4* NY JETS+ over New England @ 1:00 Eastern

First, let's give the New Yorkers a one up from the technical standpoint inside the series, as they show 7-1-1 ATS L9 and the same numbers relate to the underdog in the series.  Now the Jets gave an extension to some of the coaches which helps the psychology of the game for the visitor.  No doubt the New Yorkers have had a difficult time in this field historically but, can't help "feel" a small letdown is in the cards for this early set, as...NE is 12-3 SU and locked into the playoffs, The Pats with a win grab the #1 seed and home field in the AFC which should foster second-half substitutions. NY is going home for the winter rest after this battle.

The Jets have NO CHANCE of winning but, if they play well in the second quarter, the game will much closer than expected. New England has scored 165 points in its second quarters this season, the most points by any NFL team in any quarter, and have allowed opponents 98. The Patriots have fashioned those points on 16 touchdowns, and they've scored at least 10 points in 12 of their 15 games. Last year at Foxboro they outscored the Jets by 17-0 in the second quarter. This year the Jets have been competitive in their second frames, being outscored by 87-86. They'll need to be again Sunday, or else. QB Petty and the running will need to foster a significant role in clock management and TOP.  The Pats should be ahead and celebrate late in the 3rd quarter so, TAKE THE POINTS as the Jets do not want to be made fools of on the national scene.  Good Luck.

5*  BALTIMORE over Indianapolis

NFL SATURDAY 68% SYSTEM 20- YEARS...BDS

ALSO, THE WEATHER IN BALTIMORE WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND RAIN WHICH HELP THE MORE EXPERIENCED RAVENS POUND THE ROCK AND CONTROL.  THE 6TH SEED IN SIGHT SHOULD ALLOW THE RAVENS A MORE PHYSICAL EMOTIONAL EFFORT...BLOWOUT!

10* Philadelphia+ (127) over LA Rams @ 4:25 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE YEAR...BDS

Last week we gave you an early move on the Seahawks over Philadelphia, we cashed a nice 5* winner with the line value a plus. Here is a similar situation as the line has moved to LA interests so, we will dive in now and play the Eagles to CRUSH THE BOOKS.  Although the Eagles lost last week it should be noted they do show a PERFECT 5-0 ATS after gaining 350+ total yards. Overall the Eagles come in 10-2 SU, the Rams 9-3.  Los Angeles has a slight edge in strength of schedule.  In order to beat LA, the Eagles highly rated defense will have to slow the Rams rushing attack that is accruing 4.7 yards per rush.  Philly has held running teams to 68.1 yards on average this season.  The Eagles show 7-0 ATS on grass 8-1 L9 ATS.   The Rams are 1-4 ATS in December and 4-9 ATS in week #14.  By the way, Philly brings a super 11-4-1 ATS record in week #14.  The Eagles have covered four straight in the series.  And, the closer QB Wentz (72.4) of Philly has a much higher rating than Goff (54.9) of the Rams, and the difference in the game just maybe Wentz is averaging 9.7 yards per rush, Goff 3.4 yards per. Good Luck.

4* CAROLINA +3 (116) over Minnesota @ 1:00 Eastern

This is a huge game for the Panthers as a win will tie them with the Saints for first place in the division.  On the other hand, Minny is rolling with no comes in the NFC North.  The Panthers come in 17-6 SU at home over the last three years, 5-1 ATS off a SU loss.  The Vikings have been on an extended winning streak, and bring a 6-0 ATS record in week #14.  Statistically, the units are very similar on offense and defense in 2017.   However, the underdog in the series is carrying a super 80% run, 4-1 L5 times on the board.  TAKE THE POINTS!

4* (102) ATLANTA (MONEY LINE) over New Orleans @ 8:25 Eastern

Like the fact, the Falcons are coming off that gutty 14-9 loss to defensively focused Minnesota, a game we had called from the start.  NO handled Carolina with their passing game but, what killed the Panther was the Saints running game success on key downs. If the Falcons can control the line of scrimmage here, they win SU!  Oddy, Atlanta has a history of playing well on Thursday evening with a 6-1 ATS monster run on the Strip.  Good Luck.

4* Cincinnati+ (380) over Pittsburgh

Obviously, they're looking to balance the books with +6 as the number allocated above, considering the "public" line Pittsburgh (9-2) -4.  However, tonight I'll take a ticket with the Bengals (5-6) who have blown away in the recent series with Pittsburgh dominating the L5 with outstanding wins.  Last time the Steelers won 29-14 at home with 400+ yards of offense, holding Cincy to under 200 overall.  It looks like a give away referring to Vegas post with the Steelers 10-0 L10 SU in prime time and 3-0 SU in the division this season.  Cincy offense is dead last posting 18+ points per game and show with a run defense that is highly inconsistent.  The key will be pressuring Big Ben who lives for the big play and deep ball offense.  Pittsburgh is 16-3-2 ATS at Cincinnati, which is not good for the home fans, however, some kind of letdown is not out of the question.  If QB Dalton stays focused, I believe the Bengals will catch the Steelers napping..  Remember, techs have the Bengals a solid 7-2 ATS at home vs. a winning road unit and 8-3 ATS after securing 350+yards in their last game.  Again Dalton must come through tonight after being sacked four times with two interceptions vs. Pittsburgh this season. SHOCKER!

(378) 5* Seattle +5-1/2 or higher over Philadelphia @ 8:30 Eastern

This super UPSET play has been coming for some time as the Eagles (10-1) have been cleaning up on the lesser or injured foes of late.  Here, the Sea Chickens (7-4) are at home which accrues a huge edge as the weather is changing and the guts become tighter in the NFL Playoff chase. The real gem in this call is QB Wilson (14-7-1 ATS as a Dog) of Seattle who's varying talent the Eagles have yet to face this season on foreign soil.  He has been the yardage leader in 5-of-the-L6 games. The question comes down to the Seahawks defense that has not been so strong (injuries) in home games of late, losing to Atlanta and Washington SU.  In what should a very different type game with each feeling out each other, the score just might be lower than the current statistical base recognizes.  Remember too, if the Eagles score 23 points or less, they are 1-9 SU under their current head coach Doug Pederson.  Where is that 12th man in Seattle?  Good Luck and TAKE THE POINTS!

4* (363) Indianapolis+ (3-8) over Jacksonville (7-4) @ 1:00 Eastern

With the high flying Jags off a 27-24 road loss at Arizona, you would estimate this line coming in around 11-1/2 or -12, not so.  And that's even with Gabs playing quarterback for the Colts?  In addition, the Jaguars have covered five straight in the series and possess the NFL's #1 defense, holding the opposition to just 168 points.  Oh, the last meeting JAX 27-0 with 518 yards of offense and 10 sacks.  Before you sell the house, remember the Jags are "expected" to roll easily today showing off a loss but, they do have Seattle and Houston up next on the schedule. In addition, the NFL favs are starting to read their press clippings of late so, don't expect the rugged Jags to complete the task here. They play with a 3-7 ATS record at home while visiting Indy brings a stellar 32-12 ATS mark off a SU loss.  Good Luck.

4* Minnesota+ (355) over Atlanta @ 1:00 Eastern

The Falcons come in hot winners of three straight and against the spread.  They have the #12 rated SOS this season but, play at home against the Vikings who have given them fits in the past.  The Vikings visit after a Turkey Day Shoot winning their 7th straight game (6-1 ATS). Minnesota has the #14 rated SOS with the dog 3-0-1 ATS in the series.  No doubt, the Falcons have been blowing leads of late and show with a horrid 3-7 ATS record after allowing 250+ yards through the air.  In closing, we don't think you will see a flat Vikings unit considering their 16-5 ATS run in December. The Minnesota defense is holding the opponents to 17.7 points a game...TAKE THE POINTS!

4* Washington/Dallas UNDER the total

Although the total has been on an OVER run of late in the series, prefer to go the other way considering Dallas has scored just 22 points over the last three games.  Believe this will turn into a defensive war as Dallas must play their "best" defensive game this year to take home the cash on the other side.  In front of a national audience, we give a major edge to the UNDER circumventing the public perception on the Strip.  Good Luck.

112717

Play on:  5* (275) Houston+ over Baltimore @ 8:30 Eastern

 Here we have another “situational” cracked egg that compounds the handicap in a Monday affair.  Specifically, the Texans (4-6) travel to Baltimore (5-5) with key injuries at the running back position which should give the Ravens DL a more than average edge at the line of scrimmage. Houston QB Savage having to throw most downs will eventually put his defense in field position quandaries. We do respect coach Harbaugh’s 8-2 SU record after a bye week.   However, all that said the Texans are a desperate unit trying to SAVE their season on the road in front of a hostile MNF crowd.  Enter, what the hell has happened to QB Flacco of Baltimore?  He has thrown 9 touches but, 11 interceptions with a horrid QBR of 74.4 coming into action.  So, we fully expect coach O’Brien to dial up the blitz packages. Also, if Houston accrues positive yardage out of their running game and QB Savage avoids the turnover issue, an outright upset would be no surprise.  What makes the Vegas number even more suspect is the fact Houston is 1-9 ATS on MNF.  So, why isn’t the number at -9 or -9-1/2.  This is one of my critical issues in the handicap, the line seems soft.  In closing, Baltimore comes in off another big win but, they're 1-4-1 ATS L6 after a win of 14 plus points.  In addition, they seemingly play down to the level of their opponent going 6-13-1 ATS versus losing units.  Houston shows 6-2 ATS on turf and a solid long-term 21-7-2 ATS after gaining 350+ yards in their last game.  TAKE THE POINTS!

3* KC (6-3)  -9-1/2 not higher...over New York (1-8) 

Special Note:  

Would not even think about using this situation but, the Chiefs are 6-1 ATS off a SU loss.

Dangerous spot for Andy Reid, as Chiefs are expected to win easily.  Add in the SU 16-2 winning mark off a bye, no doubt there are questions to be solidified. First off, Reid's teams (Eagles and Chiefs) average around 24 points coming off a period of rest.  However, during that run, they have averaged wins around 9 points.  From the points differential angle, Reid's teams show +166 vs. the opposition.  The 1-8 New Yorkers come in off two losses (82-38) and 10-22-1 ATS in November. So, you CAN BET the building will empty out early if the situation depreciates. Remember the Giants are 0-4 ATS at home thus far, while KC shows 14-of-18 ATS on the road of late.

Sorry no analysis, computer issues, back around 2:30 eastern, thanks Brad

10* MIAMI+ over Carolina

NFL...MNF GAME OF THE YEAR...BDS

Aas you know we close the NFL season on a strong consistent run.  Over the last two years our post season selections went 19-3, 86%. We cashed another 2-1 TOP PLAY card yesterday, 3-1 overall in the NFL.  Now is the time to sign-up for the remainder of the season as save cash. good luck and thank you.

5* Cincinnati+ (457) over Jacksonville @ 1:00 Eastern

Everything looks rosy for the 4-3 Jags, being at home, off a bye, and Leonard is back in the lineup.  Cincinnati challenges with a 3-4 frustrated unit on both sides of the ball.  However, these two have not met since 2014 when Cincy won 33-23 at home.  The Bengals are 3-0-2 ATS in the series.  JAX has reversed out their recent WLWLWLW record of late with obviously a SU loss on-deck if you lean that way.  Also, the Jags are showing off a 27-0 win rested so, they should take some time getting adjusted to the tempo.  JAX is 9-19-1 ATS off a win, 3-7-1 week #9 and 8-20 ATS off a SU win of 14+ points.  Good Luck.

5* Carolina (460) EVEN over Atlanta

NFL MONEY LINE GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

3* Denver over Phila

NFL EARLY APPRECIATION MOVE...BDS

10* (451/452) Denver/Philadelphia UNDER the total

NFL NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR...BDS

Key elements include a change at quarterback (TOP) for Denver off a short week with flying issues for the team. And this is the end of a difficult road swing for the inconsistent Broncos.  The Eagles will be facing a vaunted defense that loves to hit between the tackles with their LB diversified approach. Remember, Philly will be without their very best OL this time out which will cause QB Wentz to change snap counts and running direction. It's an overcast day in Philly should help the psychology of the road unit that is desperate to shut down the Eagles attack...Phila is 40-18 UNDER after scoring 30+ points, while Denver is UNDER 8-of-10 off SU loss.  Good Luck.

4* Philadelphia (478) over Washington...MNF

Redskins (3-2) are off close win against San Francisco after generating an early dominating lead. They are 10-21 ATS on Monday night.  Also, QB Cousins of Washington is a perfect 0-5 SU in MNF.  The 5-1 Eagles come in flying with great confidence and the home crowd to help support their efforts.  A few key areas that Philly should have an advantage is their tenacious DL vs. the 'Skins OL.  Remember, Washington has scrambled in third-down situations on the road converting just 37.5%.  The opposing Philly group is ranked #1 in that important offensive conversion rate with a 50.7% effectiveness.  QB Wentz of the Eagles has the sensational dual-threat capabilities which should cause real problems tonight for the Washington defense.  Trending, the Eagles are 5-2 ATS on Monday night and at home have covered 4 straight against a winning road team.  Good Luck.

4* (475/476) Atlanta/New England OVER the total @ 8:30 Eastern

This situation looks HIGH basically.  It’s a Sunday night affair and a major revenge game for the Falcons who lost 34-28 to NE back on FEBRUARY 5th, if you recall?  In that incredible football game, the Patriots put up 544 yards of total offense.  The Falcons, effective generated less with 344 yards, 104 on the ground. This season the 4-2 Patriots are averaging 28.7 points per game (#5) and the Falcons (3-2) 24.2 points per outing (#12).  The series comes in 5-2 OVER L7 encounters.  NE is 6-1 OVER off a SU win and Atlanta OVER 14-2 on turf.  If the Falcons improve their running game, they will generate more quality opportunities via positive field position this time around.  Good Luck.

4* Cincinnati+ over Pittsburgh

Note we had to reduce the unit strength of this play as the "players" on the Strip are chasing Cincinnati (2-3) early this morning.  Our assertion is still solid with the visitor losers of four straight in the series and 7-of-8.  Pittsburgh (4-2) is 3-0-1 ATS L4 meetings.  The Steelers are off a SU/ATS win as an underdog out in KC.  Cincy shows off a bye week after beating the Bills and come into this Sunday afternoon looking for revenge.  Both teams have struggled overall on offense this season with scoring averages under 20-points a game. So, we look for a low scoring defensive type battle which should entice the underdog money, and we agree.  Remember, the Steelers have not covered back-to-back games this season and arrive with a 1-4 ATS off a SU win.  We know Pittsburgh has controlled the series ATS but, this overall situation does favor the emotionally drive Bengals who have covered 4 straight on the road.  Good Luck.

5* TENNESSEE over Cleveland

GAME OF THE WEEK....BDS

Note, we may have a play later on today.  Here believe the 0-6 Browns are in trouble again versus a unit that is averaging 24.3 points inside a schedule that has been stronger than Cleveland.  Realize this is a road situation but, note the Browns have been playing the 30th ranked schedule in 2017.  And their 6-25-1 ATS L32 and 3-13 ATS at home (0-5 ATS October).  The Titans show 6-2 ATS after gaining over 350 yards in their last game...GL.

10* Rams (265) over Jacksonville @ 4:05 Eastern

NFL Sunday Late Money Move Top Play Alert...BDS

Buy before the line drops...Good Luck.

4* (263/264) SF/Washington OVER the total @ 1:00 Eastern

Even if there is a weather issue expect a sloppy, turnover-filled game.  After playing on Monday night the 'Skins show 4-0 OVER in their next encounter.  Further, they use QB Cousins (107.6) who is on fire and has already exceeded 1,000 yards of production.  Both defenses allow 20+ points a game, while SF (#32) is dead last in allowing third down conversions.  Offensively, the Niners rebounded last week scoring 23 points against Indy.  Technically, SF is 9-2 OVER after allowing 350+ yards and 4-0 OVER in week #6 of the season.  Home-standing 'Skins show 11-1 OVER off SU loss and 14-4 OVER against the NFC.  Good Luck. 

3* Minnesota (260) over Green Bay

One of the great fundamentals here is the fact the Vikes are #1 in the NFL in opponent 3rd down conversions (2.8).  That's critical the Packers coming off a huge offensive showing last week.  However, GB is 2-8 ATS after surrendering 30+ points in their last game, and Minny is a super 9-1 ATS at home against a winning road unit.  Appreciation Winner!!  More to follow.

4* (104) Carolina -3 over Philadelphia @ 8:25 Eastern

Both units are in first place within their divisions at 4-1 SU, the Panthers show off amazing back-to-back road wins 33-30 over New England and 27-24 against Detroit.  Carolina is 3-0 SU on the road this season, 1-1 at home being waxed by NO 34-13 in week #3.  The Eagles have won three straight over NYG 27-24, 26-24 at the Chargers and 34-7 over Arizona. QB Wentz (137.8) leads the NFL in 3rd down effectiveness but, Carolina has limited the opposition quarterbacks to a passing rating of 87.8.  Just remember Philly’s recent wins have been against suffering football teams with a 3-12 SU mark.  Critical, the Eagles will be without Sproles, Darby, Johnson and Cox with other players nicked up in the first 22. Also, Philly coach Pederson is 0-6 SU on the road without Lane Johnson in the lineup. Further, Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS on the road L10 times out.  The Panthers come in 12-5-1 ATS in week #6 affairs.  The chalk in the series is on a PERFECT 4-0 ATS run.   

4* (469/470) Baltimore/Oakland UNDER 40

With QB Carr out for Oakland, the Raiders will rely more on their big offensive line and running attack to keep E. J. Manual out of trouble so, expect a conservative game plan. In addition, the Ravens have had real problems the last few weeks, and now they head to the west coast where they are 0-3 SU (1-5).  From the technical standpoint, Oakland is 7-3-2 UNDER off SU loss, while Baltimore comes in 8-1 UNDER off a DD loss at home.  Good Luck. 

4* Philadelphia+ over San Diego

The Chargers seem very overpriced here knowing they are 0-6 ATS off a SU loss and 0-7-1 ATS L8. They 0-3 SU, and don't seem to play consistently throughout the football.  The Eagles 1-2 have been in all three of their games, despite a 1-2 record.  What I like here is the Philly yards-per-point of 14.5 vs. the Chargers 19.7, while at home LA is showing 25.8 yards per.  Eagles by a FG.

10* TB/NYG UNDER the total

The Giants have averaged slightly over 12 points a game against Philly, Detroit, and Dallas.  Tampa Bay on the other hand, playing just two games has scored 46 points against Minnesota and Chicago.  However, we remind you the Bucs led 23-0 after four straight turnovers by Chicago. Here we both units frustrated feel we'll see a low-scoring game.  The series has gone UNDER 7-of-9 and 5-1 UNDER L6 in Tampa Bay. With reality setting in for both so-so units, go low.  Good Luck.

5* Cincinnati over Cleveland

NFL GAM OF THE WEEK...BDS

In Bill Lazor's first week as OC, the Bengals got the ball out of Andy Dalton's hands quicker and relied more heavily on their best weapon, A.J. Green. Cincy also finally leaned on Joe Mixon. The rookie earned 21 offensive touches in Week 3, exactly equaling his workload in the first two games combined. We should see more Mixon this week. The patient runner has superior vision to go along with game-breaking ability. With Mixon as a dual-threat, it should open up play-action shots from Dalton deep against a Browns secondary that has been burned often through three games. With the Bengals winning 5 straight in the series we'll stay with the road unit ATS.

3* (252) Miami+ over New Orleans @ 9:30 Eastern

NFL Early Foreign Edition…BDS

Here we go again with the beleaguered NFL playing across the pond in an early morning set US.  Last week the underdog Fish were smashed by the New York Jets 20-6 in what looked like one feeble football team.  The Saints (1-2) last time out smashed the “Panthers” 34-13. To begin with the Dolphins lost their starting QB and had use retread Jay Cutler which proved to be another offensive mistake by the Miami brain trust.  The Saints after going 0-2 really step out in their Carolina win as QB Brees had a super game and the running attack finally showed some steam.  Remember, the Fish have more talented defense than offense and catch the role of an underdog in an early start (Jacksonville). New Orleans no doubt has been a super October ATS machine of late but, the unit is a PERFECT 0-4 ATS off a win of 14 or more.   The “obvious” technicians will be all over NO but, I like our chances with +3, +3-1/2 and Miami. 

4* (484)…LA over Kansas City @ 4:25 Eastern

NFL Upset Alert….BDS

Difficult game to assess, somewhat, considering the visiting Chiefs are winners of 6 straight in the series and have Andy Reid as their coach.  I’ve always enjoyed capping Reid’s games going back to his days with the Philadelphia Eagles.  The visitor has recently crushed their division opponents, however this situation seems to setup well for the home standing Chargers.  Critical will be the LA defensive abilities trying to corner the down the field attack of KC with QB Alex Smith looking to do damage.  Remember, though, this game is more important to the Chargers who have started 0-2 SU, while losing in horrible fashion in each encounter.  If QB Rivers (73.6%) can extract some midfield openings for his receivers the Chargers may control the tempo of this football game.  We think he has a great shot especially, considering the Chiefs are 1-7 ATS after allowing 350+ yards in their last game.  We close with LA 11-4-2 ATS in September.

4* Cincy/Houston OVER 38

BDS...NFL BEST BET TOTAL

4* (459) Philadelphia over Washington @ 1:00 Eastern

Washington almost booked a playoff game last season and here they opened as a -2-1/2 favorite way back in the summer out on the Strip. Philadelphia deflated last season behind young QB Wentz, however, the kid was truly hammered at times looking shell shocked against the upper crust of the league.  Owner Lurie, though, opened up the purse strings and went after some key offensive talent to allow Wentz some weapons to make a difference.  If newly acquired RB Blount (NE) has a "good" day the Eagles have a great chance of securing a week #1 (4-0 ATS) win on the road. Washington lost critical late season games to the Giants and Panthers of which their followers have not let them forget. Granted QB Cousins is back to run the offense but, they have 7 new starters to blend in this early start? 

In their December (2016) back breaking loss to Washington (22-27), the Eagles defense gave up a rushing TD with under 2:00 minutes of the 4th quarter for a come from behind loss.  Philly ran 76 plays to 46 for Washington. In addition, the Eagles had a 13 minute time of possession advantage but, the 'Skins outgained them 11.1 to 6.8 yards-per-play.  So, this a HUGE REVENGE GAME for Philly who now have weapons for Wentz to utilize against the so-so 'Skins defense.  Remember, Washington has not won an opening day encounter going back to 2012.  Eagles by 4.

4* Kansas City+ (451) over New England @ 8:30 Eastern

Psychologically this encounter belongs 100% to the Kansas City Chiefs and old-time head coach Andy Reid.  We’ll start with the Patriots (14-2) who won the Super Bowl 34-28 after being behind 28-3 in the third quarter versus the Falcons.  Prior NE had defeated Houston, and then Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game.  The Patriots are the only team in history to win back-to-back Super Bowls. For sure, NE grew to be Vegas sweet hearts again finishing 13-3 ATS (8-0 streak).  Here, they play as the chalk (-8, -9) at home in this Thursday night affair to begin 2017.  On the other hand, Kansas City came out of the 2016 campaign 12-4 after crushing late on a 10-2 SU run, however, Ole Andy lost to the Steelers in the divisional round playoffs 18-16.  Remember that because, the Chiefs play big games close as a habit. Coach Reid is 6-0 ATS challenging AFC East entrants.  These two faced each other in the 2016 playoffs with NE winning 27-20.  The key fundamental stat from last year that provides underdogs with a built-in edge is the Chiefs defense which scored 5 touchdowns on that side of the ball.  Important, KC was ranked #1 in turnover margin (+16) in 2016 and return an outstanding front seven defensively.  Granted the Chiefs lost RB Ware and will be using a third string running back for the most part but, NE also will miss an ace on their offense WR Edelman.  With so much tension in the line for the Patriots believe we’ll see a FG game and quite possibly an over-time affair.  TAKE THE POINTS!

(305) 10* Pittsburgh over Kansas City @ 8:20 Eastern

No matter the line can’t trust Andy in a pick situation vs. the better quarterback with “Mo.”  Granted the Steelers are 0-4 ATS in Kansas City, but Pittsburgh has built up some props as is accruing current reality advantages on the playing field.  With the Chiefs 1-7 ATS in playoff games, there is only one-side on Sunday…Pittsburgh!

10* Atlanta/Seattle OVER the total

NFL TOP PLAY TOTAL….BDS

It’s January and usually we’re hitting them well in football.  Saturday, though, is seemingly tough call when you look at the site and the Seattle playoff defense.   Still, must go OVER the number considering the line is now 52 at the Stations out in Las Vegas, opened at 49-1/2 universally. The weather is not a factor considering the Dome facility.  The home standing Falcons have been on fire ‘OVER’ inside our ICE MASTERS programming this season. They have a combined average of almost 60-points per game. They are 8-0 OVER this season down in the Georgia confines. Opposing ‘Hawks are 11-4-1 OVER in playoff games last 16 times out, and 5-0 OVER L5 home standing playoff games.  And, an amazing 10-1-1 OVER against NFC teams.

Seattle has shot OVER 6-of-7 in Divisional Playoff encounters and 6-2 OVER in road Playoff games.  The series is 5-1 OVER, and with Seattle a consistent 11-5 OVER mark vs. a winning record, we look for this to be a high scoring game and quite possible a game that is driven into OT considering the frenzy of both these talented teams.  Good Luck.

I'll take that extra 1/2 to create a winning angle for tonight in the NFL Playoffs.  And, don't miss my double play Sunday in the NFL to help you crush the books.  Remember here, Seattle is at home and the noise level will an added edge and a deficit-ridden angle for the traveling Lions.  Also, Detroit has been UNDER 8-2 of late, while going 10-2 UNDER vs. a winning home unit.  Fundamentally, one stat that talk to a more deliberated offensive show for each are the QB ratings of 91.2 and 91.8, these hurlers will look to use percentage situations to advance the football.  

home team in series 9-0 ATS, and until this string is broken must favor Miami and their ability to score and quite possibly bring this under the posted total to ensure an ATS cover.  Also, Miami has covered the L4 at home in the series.  Brady will be cocked but, resilient home unit will grab the cash.  Good Luck.