Arizona/USC 10:30: The Trojans should continue their demise under fat head Orgeron who controls a 10-25 SU mark as a HC. It won't help USC that their top receiver Lee has an ailing knee; moreover, their defense should continue its backward slide to Rodriguez's quick strike spread attack led by RB Ka'Deem Carey. Arizona has a veteran team and better depth than the Trojans. Moreover, the Wildcats have covered 7 of the last 8 in this series and 4 straight at the Coliseum. Arizona is 10-4 ATS off a bye and 5-2 ATS on Thursdays. Arizona the call.

Wyoming/Air Force 10:15: Last year's second half comeback by AF rattled Wyoming HC Christensen and he has had his eye on this revenge match since; moreover, Christensen does not like AF HC Calhoun. This season, the Falcons are thin in a lot of areas, especially defensively; as a result, we'll look for the potent offense of the Cowboys with QB Brett Smith and company to overwhelm AF's vulnerable defense. Offensively, AF lost their starting QB Pearson and one dimensional backup Awini not in total rhythm with offense. Wyoming 4-0 ATS in series. AF is a mere 1-6 ATS off a SU loss of 20+. We'll look for Wyoming to get sweet revenge here.

Carolina/Buffalo 1:00: Not sure Mike Shula is a good fit for Cam Newton. Newton struggled last week, albeit against a great Seattle defense, but he was uncomfortable and confused at times when receivers were open. Buffalo wasn't intimidated last week against New England as they came after Brady with a lot of Cover 1. We'll look for them to attack Newton in similar fashion. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo looked good with Manuel at the helm and Spiller behind a good offensive line will add for more positive production for this offense. Bills 12-5 ATS in Week 2 while Carolina a mere 4-10 ATS in September. Bills the call.

Bengals/Bears 1:00: We'll take stability over change here. The Bengals have gradually worked their way back to respectability under HC Marvin Lewis and should be ready for a breakout season with a bruising defense in which Pro Bowl LB James Harrison will enhance. The Bears are in a transition mode with converted CFL coach Marc Trestman running the show. It should be a difficult transition to create instant pass protection for QB Cutler against last season's top pass rushing team in the league bearing down on him. Offensively, the Bengals' underrated QB Dalton, who worked through his sophomore slump and is ready to get out of the gate strong with a solid supporting cast. Bears have reloaded their defense after Urlacher's departure, but it should take time to gel. Bengals are 4-1 ATS at Chicago and we'll roll with them.

UCF/Fla Int'l: UCF has a meaningful disparity in talent and experience over FIU. FIU's inexperienced defense was gutted last week by an average MD offense. UCF's All-Conference QB Blake Bortles will most likely torch the inexperienced secondary of the Panthers, especially when the running game gets going with RB Storm Johnson (99 yds last week vs Akron). The Panthers' offense should be handcuffed too. They got a paltry 171 total yards against MD last week. And UCF brings another well disciplined defense to the gridiron this year. We'll look for the Knights to choke out the rebuilding Panthers, which don't have too much talent to operate with. And clearly UCF's HC O'Leary wants to keep it that way with Miami Florida recruits going his way. On the other hand, first year Panthers' HC Turner is a mere 6-23 SU/ATS in games off a SU/ATS loss in his collegiate coaching career. UCF the call.

Baltimore/San Francisco 6:30: I've given myself plenty of reasons change my original selection of the 49ers as the winner/cover of this game, including the Super Bowl dog covering 8 of the last 11; however, I'm staying with SF based a variety of factors: first, the SF offense is brilliantly designed to create an extra blocker through their formations and utilize their strengths of speed and brute force. And the Baltimore defense is a step slow up front to effectively counter the read option. If Baltimore does sell out and bring an extra body in the box, SF's Kaepernick can find the perimeter quick and locate his talented receiving corps. On the other hand, the Ravens offense is cooking too, but Caldwell's play calling has been suspect and predictable. SF brings an outstanding defense to the field, including a fierce pass rush with the Aldon and Justin Smith to disrupt Flacco's vertical game. We'll stay on the 49ers.

49ers/Falcons 3:00: Falcons may play well at home but have struggled in the biggest of games on their turf. Remember, over the last few years under Smith at home in the playoffs, they lost in the 2010 season playoffs 48-21 against Green Bay, got smothered by the Giants 24-2 last year, and choked away a 20 point lead to the Seahawks to blow the cover last week. Defensively, the Falcons are second worst in the league on yardage given up following initial hit. And they struggle against mobile QBs. Cam Newton had huge games this season vs them (502 pass/202 rush). And Russell Wilson thrashed them in the second half last week. They face the most dynamic runner after contact yet in Kaepernick. And throw in that Atlanta will spy Kaepernick with athletic Kroy Biermann, which takes away a defender in the secondary and rusher at point of attack during pass plays. Keep in mind Kaepernick can pass with a receiving corps that developed well this year. And throw in the physical front line of SF and Gore running behind it, Atlanta's defense should be on its heels. On the other hand, Atlanta's offense is good, but the SF defense has consistently been good when healthy. And DT Justin Smith appears back in form. We'll roll with SF.

Alabama/Notre Dame 8:30: Alabama presents another dominant defense with a limited mistake offense with QB McCarron; however, keep in mind that 2 of 3 of McCarron's interceptions were in goal-to-goal situations. And Notre Dame's defense, which has limited explosive plays all season, has done its best work when backed up in the red zone; as a matter of fact, ND has given up the lowest percentage of red zone TDs at 24% than any FBS team over the past nine years. Heisman runner up Manti Te'o has extraordinary instincts and his teammate NG Nix he has to thank for the tremendous job at manning two gaps proficiently all season. Alabama will be hard pressed to pound the ball down the Irish' throat. On the other hand, Irish QB Golson has made significant strides over the course of the season and he has a great surrounding cast to work with, including 6'6" 251 pound Eifert who is a nightmare matchup in the red zone. Alabama deserves its hype but keep in mind that the SEC was not their usual dominating self in bowl games this year at 5-3 SU, including disapointing outright losses by LSU and Florida. The 'Tide is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. ND's Brian Kelly is masterful in prepping his team and rarely gets beaten handily. And I don't see it happening here either. ND the call.

Bengals/Texans 4:30: I realize the Texans had the Bengals number in recent matches; however, the Texans' production has really fallen off after three strong months of football. Houston's 1-3 ATS slide has them searching for answers. They're run game has lost it's luster and I don't see them recapturing it here against a staunch Bengals' defense; moreover, the Bengals are strong in third and long on account of their outstanding ability to rush the passer. Bengals are on a 7-1 ATS tear and realize it's meaningless if they can't win a playoff game. We'll look for Marvin Lewis to notch his first playoff win. Bengals play well on the road (4-0 ATS run) and will get it done.

Texas A&M/Oklahoma 8:00: I clearly understand the hype over Manziel and company, which are the trendy pick across the land; however, Oklahoma posts the same record and did finish the year strong. QB Landry Jones completed 67% of his passes down the stretch en route to a 5-0 run. And he'll have WR Jalen Saunders (marijuana ordeal) to throw to. Sure, the Sooners' defense was downright poor stopping the run in the predominant pass heavy Big 12; however, DC Mike Stoops had plenty of time to develop a quality assignment football scheme and drill fundamentals to his veteran athletic troops. We'll look for better gap discipline and tackling tonight. And with OC Kingsbury on to Texas Tech, offensive rhythm could be curtailed. On the other hand, the A&M defense faced only one other Top 20 BCS automatic qualifier this season -- LA Tech in which they snuck by 59-57. A&M's defense will have its hands full tonight as we look for the Sooners to be very competitive.

Wisconsin/Stanford 5:00: Years ago, Barry Alvarez made us money when he was the man at Wisconsin and he surely has the touch in the Rose Bowl at 3-0; however, I don't believe this is a great matchup for the Badgers. Value added off their crushing win in the Big Ten Championship but Nebraska is equipped with a relative soft run-stop-unit. Stanford possesses one of the best run defenses in the nation allowing just 88 yards per game / 2.9 ypc. We believe the well disciplined Cardinal defense can take away the power run game of Wisconsin and force the Badgers into what they don't do well -- pass. Mediocre QB play by Stave (cleared to play) and Phillips (will start) will most likely not threaten Stanford's secondary. On the other hand, Stanford's QB Hogan took over and turned their offense up several notches with his mobility and accuracy (73%). And he has RB Stephan Taylor and a physical offensive line to attain a comfort level tonight. Stanford a sweet 10-1 ATS in non-conference play and 19-6-1 ATS on grass. Wisconsin just 0-6 ATS after scoring 40+ points. Stanford the call.

49ers/Patriots 8:30: The Patriots are seemingly unstoppable offensively and smothered 4 of their last 6 opponents; however, the SF defense (#2 total defense) will give them trouble. They have two of the top defensive line players in the game (Aldon Smith/Justin Smith), a vicious linebacking corps and heads up secondary. We'll look for the SF defense to put elusive QB Kaepernick and company in good position to put points on the board. SF is 4-1 ATS on the road against a team with a winning road record. NE is a mere 1-5 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games vs .500 or greater opponents. SF the call.

49ers/Saints 4:25: The Saints have turned their game up a few notches but now face the top defense in the NFL. Sure, Brees had some big games vs New Orleans and looking to avenge last year's playoff loss; however, the Saints' defense, which struggled early in the year, has shown some improvement in recent weeks but still has week areas in which Harbaugh's troops can exploit. QB controvesy in SF with Kaepernick starting, but the bottom line is the SF system is successful. And the SF defense puts their team in a great position to continually be in a position to win. 49ers 20-8-1 ATS run and still more juice left.

Redskins/Cowboys 4:15: Cowboys have been consistently inconsistent off SU wins at 2-12 ATS. Today, we'll look for sluggishness to resurface against division rival Washington. The Redskins have covered 5 straight at Dallas. Dallas controls an 0-7 ATS mark at home and a mere 1-5 ATS off back-to-back SU wins in November. Sure, the Redskins' defense has been outright poor for most of the season however, they made progress against Philadelphia last Sunday. The Dallas offense is clearly no juggernaut with a running game 29th in the league. The Redskins have a well balanced offense that should be able to put some points on the board and hang tight here. The dog in this series is a profitable 22-6 ATS!

Southern Miss/SMU 7:00: Southern Miss is terribly struggling in their first year under Ellis Johnson. The Golden Eagles are near the bottom of the NCAA Div 1A teams in defense and offense. We'll look for the Mustangs to take out their anger from last week's loss at UCF on the pitiful Golden Eagles. SMU is 5-1 ATS off a 20+ point loss. We'll look for SMU HC June Jones to utilize his weaponry effectively as usual.

Steelers/Giants 4:25: Steelers' defense is not the dominant force it was in recent years; especially on the road. The Steelers may have the league's top rated pass defense but they've produced just 13 sacks and yield 4.1 ypc on the ground. Today, they will be sorely tested against Eli Manning and his outstanding receivers. And with Polamalu on the sidelines, defensive secondary leakage and limited sacks are in the offing. On the other hand, the Giants' sack totals are rising and the G-Men are overdue to jump start an underachieving defense. Pittsburgh is a mere 1-7 ATS on the road and 1-7 ATS off a SU win. Giants usually find a way to get up for top tier opponents as their 9-1 ATS mark against teams above .500 suggests. NYG the call.

Notre Dame/Oklahoma 8:00: Fair value with a Sooners team that has never lost two home games in a season under Bob Stoops. And he has been there since 1999. Sure, the ND defense has been great; however, the inexperienced corners, which overachieved and blended in the Irish system thus far, should be exposed against QB Landry Jones and company. On the other hand, the Irish won't have their game breaking kickoff returner George Atkinson III (flu) today. And I don't believe the Irish' offense is potent enough to trade points successfully with the Sooners tonight. Oklahoma is looking to get back in BCS contention and should do it here. Irish just 3-7 ATS vs teams above .500.

Washington/Giants 1:00: The G-Men are heating up and we'll stay on them. Coming off a SU dog win against a division opponent, the Giants are 5-1 ATS. NY is a sweet 19-7-1 ATS in October. And Eli Manning should carve up a Redskins' secondary without safety Jordan Pugh (concussion). Washington is last in the league in pass defense and should have trouble with Manning and his elite receiving corps. Defensively, NY adds DT Canty back to the mix to help contain RG III. And the Giants have a sour taste in their mouth about getting swept last year in this series. NY is 7-1 ATS at home with division revenge. Redskins are just 1-5 ATS off a SU win. NY the call.

Kansas State/West Virginia 7:00: I realize that WV is in an ornery mood after getting embarrassed last week. However, defense is a major concern. And not just because they've given up tons of yardage to their last three opponents. This WV defense has eroded over the last few years. They've changed schemes unsuccessfully under new DC DeForest. They give up big plays and routinely not fundamentally sound. K State head coach Snyder can take advantage of teams like that. And the Wildcats have a big time QB in Klein. We'll look for the road tested and fundamentally sound 'Cats to get er done!

Buffalo/San Francisco 4:25: The 49ers have significant edges in key categories. SF's defense is fundamentally sound and take pride in limiting offenses. Buffalo is thin at RB with Spiller and Jackson coming off injuries. A limited run game against a staunch run stop unit will not bode well for struggling Bills' QB Fitzpatrick who has already thrown seven interceptions. On the other hand, Buffalo's defense has not reached preseason expectations and Harbaugh should find ways of exploiting soft areas in it. SF is 7-2 ATS against non-division opponents at .500 or greater. SF the call.

Jets/Dolphins 1:00: New Jets' OC Sparano was fired as the Dolphins' HC last year. He has a good feel for this year's Dolphins personnel and should be able to exploit some of the Dolphins' defensive weeknesses. The Jets sport a strong 11-3 ATS mark in Miami. We'll look for NY to clamp down on Reggie Bush, who is off to a strong season. And with CB Revis (concussion) back, rookie QB Tannehill should not have the receiver seperation he did against the soft Oakland corners. Jets the call.

New Mexico/New Mexico State 8:00: Triple revenge for the Lobos after a 42-28 home loss last year. However, Lobos' new HC Davie is gradually cleaning up the big mess that Locksley left behind. And he should continue his progress here. The visitor in this series is 4-0 ATS while NM is 3-0-1 ATS. The Lobos are coming off two blowout losses to Texas and Texas Tech but should be quite competitive here. NM State has major defensive issues that should allow the Lobos to get untracked. The Aggies are just 2-13 ATS as a favorite against an opponent with revenge. Lobos the call.

BYU/Boise State 9:00: Value with a defensively strong Cougars team, upper classman QB in Riley Nelson behind an experienced offensive line. Boise State, however, had some holes to fill including at QB. Southwick is well schooled but still no Kellen Moore, at least in his early stages as a starter. BYU likes to get after the QB yet plays the run game well. Like my chances with a more experienced BYU team that covered 4 of its last 5 road games. The Cougars also covered 5 of their last 7 off an ATS loss. Boise just 2-6 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS off a SU win. We'll look for the Cougars to get hungry and cover here.

Rutgers/S.Fla 7:30: I believe S.Fla has the decisive edge in offense and would evenutally wear the Rutgers' defense down over 4 quarters; after all, the Rutgers' offense did not look impressive against two lightweights -- rebuilding Tulane and lower division Howard. However, USF came off a bruising battle with Nevada Saturday night with their skill players, including QB Daniels, beat up. On a short prep week, it will be hard for the Bulls to move the ball on a stone cold Rutgers' defense. S.Fla has a history of sluggish performances on Thursday night and sport a 2-5 O/U on Thurdays. The Knights control a 0-4 O/U mark on the road against a team with a winning home record. The virtually new Rutgers' coaching staff has a defense to hang their hat on that should keep them competitive. Under the call.

49ers/Packers 4:25: Pieces are in place for SF to pick up where they left off last season. Defense should remain strong and will give Aaron Rodgers trouble. On the other hand, SF upgraded its offensive personnel with free agent acquisitions Moss, Manningham and super quick RB out of Oregon LaMichael James. QB Alex Smith should continue to progress in Harbaughs' system. And Harbaugh is a sweet 7-2 ATS against .500 or greater non division competition. 49ers train keeps rolling.

Pittsburgh/Cincinnati 8:00: Pittsburgh got off to an inauspicious start with a loss to lower level Youngstown State. Defense is a concern for the Panthers; after all, the Penguins converted 11 of 16 3rd down attempts. The alarming stat does not bode well for a productive offense like Cincinnati. We'll look for the Bearcats to maneuver through the young Pittsburgh defense with relative ease. Although, Cincinnati has only four returning offensive starters, there are plenty of skill players and linemen who have had significant playing time in Jones' system. The Bearcats' defense, however, returns seven starters from a bowl winning team. We'll look for them to contain QB Sunseri and RB Graham in a Pitt system that is slow to develop under Chryst. Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in September and 7-3 ATS on Thursdays. Pitt just 2-5-1 on Thursdays and 2-8-1 ATS in September. Home team is 4-1 ATS and we'll roll with Cincy!

Cowboys/Giants 8:30: We were all over the Giants last year as they gathered momentum and delivered our 5* in the Super Bowl; however, their off-season losses (coaches/players) out-weigh their incoming personnel -- at least early in the year. On the other hand, the Cowboys focused on improving their defensive personnel in the off-season, including glaring weakness -- secondary. Based on what we've seen in the pre-season, they'll be better equipped going into this one. In addition, the Cowboys should have Dez Bryant and Miles Austin healthy along with RB DeMarco Murray. TE Witten practiced in pads and should see action too. We'll look for Romo to finally notch a cover/win here. Cowboys are a strong .663 in openers and post a high winning % on extended rest in recent year. Dallas the call.

Tenn/NC State 7:30: The Wolfpack brings back their entire ball hawking secondary that cradled 27 interceptions. David Amerson, who stole 13, will be roaming the secondary eyeing down QB Tyler Bray, who will be without his top receiver -- Rogers (suspended). I like the matchup. NC State wants to establish respect and to do it against an SEC team on prime time national television is a major incentive to them. Offensively, Mike Glennon, who threw for over 3000 yards and 31 TDs last season should keep the offense rolling. NC State is 6-2 ATS in non-conference matchups and 4-0-1 ATS at neutral sites. The Vol's, however, are 0-5 ATS against the ACC and 1-3-1 ATS at neutral sites.

NYG/NE Patriots 6:30: Four years ago the Giants completed one of the most stunning upsets in Super Bowl history. That team had many similarities that this year's G-Men have.

The 2007 version had a stuggling period during the regular season and turned up the heat down the stretch rolling into the post season on their magical run to Super Bowl prominence. This year's Giants, made a similar run with strong defensive play, including a vicious pass rush, a rolling run game, and great play from Eli Manning and his receivers.

This year, Eli Manning is having a banner year. He's engineered numerous 4th quarter comebacks and now much wiser on how to read coverages and maneuver in the pocket. And his 1000+ yard receivers Cruz and Hicks are outstanding. And let's not forget about the Giants' under-rated TEs Pascoe and Ballard who don't get nearly enough credit; after all, they're overshadowed by Gronkowki and Hernandez. We'll look for Pascoe and Ballard to work the shaky hook area of New England's secondary. Of course, we're counting on the NYG run game to be productive to open that hook area.

On the other hand, the Patriots' key receiver - Gronkowski is still recovering from the high ankle sprain he sustained against Baltimore. His ankle got contorted in a way that is unable for the human body to heal in limited time (less than 2 weeks). And as a tight end, you need to drive off your lower limbs hard to be an effective blocker; in addition, your ankle maintains stability on starts and stops in pass patterns -- both in which I believe Gronkowski should be a step slow. And a step slow in the NFL is not good -- any way you look at it. Given the Giants' fierce pass rush from their d-line lends creativity to their defensive coordinator who doesn't have to send 'backers or secondary players on blitzes.

Bottom line, we'll look for the NYG pass rush to do similar damage to Brady that they did years ago and that's despite a seemingly healthy NE offensive line. And with Coughlin's well rounded bunch, including specialty teams, playing at a high level going into this one, we'll stay on them here.

New Orleans/San Francisco 4:30: 49ers had a week to diagnose the Saints' explosive offense and figure out a viable defensive plan; after all, they had plenty of success all season long defensively. And the Saints have had a recent history under Payton stumbling on the road in the playoffs: in 2006 they lost at Chicago in the NFC Championship and last season they stumbled at Seattle in the first round.

This season, the Saints fell to Green Bay, Tampa Bay and St. Louis on the road. And their offense has scored an average of 9 ppg less at outdoor stadiums this season. We'll look for the fierce front line of SF led by Justin Smith to get pressure on Brees and limit his effectiveness. And lets not forget that SF has the #1 run stop unit in the NFL.

On the other hand, the SF offense is in good hands with HC Harbaugh. He'll have a strong game plan to counter New Orleans' blitz happy schemes. There is enough talent and discipline on the SF offense to move the football.

The 49ers are a sweet 5-1 ATS as a home dog in this spread range. The Saints have stumbled in January at 4-10 ATS and just 2-5 ATS on Saturdays. SF the call.

Alabama/LSU 8:30: At first glance, Alabama is the call. Going back to the first matchup on 11/5/2011, they drove the ball on LSU but made mistakes to keep points off the board. But the fact of the matter is that they did make mistakes in critical moments of the game to lose. LSU showed poise and it can be said that the Tigers shine when the spotlight is brightest while Alabama is not yet ready for prime time.

LSU has a tendency to start sluggishly, as they did in the first meeting and against Arkansas and Georgia; however, because of their superior depth on both sides of the football, they are able to wear down opponents over the course of a game. Their backfield is extemely deep and add Hilliard to the mix -- of their two 700+ yard rushers -- Ford and Ware-- even Alabama's #1 defense will have problems.

Sure, Alabama has playmakers, including RB Richardson. But I'll give the edge to LSU with Jordan Jefferson over A.J. McCarron. And if Jefferson goes down there is always dependable Jarrett Lee who is eager to redeem himself after the 2 INT performance in November. There is no one with that kind of experience behind McCarron.

Defensively, both are rock solid fundamentally and technically. I do, however, like the corners of LSU in Mathieu and Claiborne. And the relentless pressure of LSU's defensive front (37 sacks) can rattle McCarron.

It will eventually come down to making big time plays and that's why I like LSU. Mathieu (Aka honey badger) has done it all year and he shines in these moments. Special teams, holding on to the football, and calculated risk by Miles and his staff have me taking the points. It's hard to go against a head coach with an amazing 48-4 SU mark in prime time night games.

Wisconsin/Oregon 5:00: Good value with a well balanced Badgers team that plays the bowl dog role well. This season was a major upgrade as well with Russell Wilson as QB. And the outstanding RB Ball(2014 rush yards) should keep Wisconsin very competitive tonight.

Wisconson's QB Wilson had a tremendous year and he finished the regular season strong (12 TD / 0 INT) on a 5-0 run. Oregon's defense doesn't sit too long because of a no-huddle offense that doesn't waste time scoring. We'll look for the Badgers' balanced offensive attack to methodically pound their way to victory tonight. They're less turnover prone and possess a better defense. Now the Badgers' defense will sorely be tested. Oregon is equipped with speed to burn and won't be stopped. But the Ducks occasionally become careless with the football and because of the long layoff from when the season ended till now, timing and rhythm, which is essential in their offense, could be altered to the downside. We'll look for Wisconsin's opportunistic defense to capitalize on turnovers and allow the Badgers' potent offense to deliver.

Oregon has struggled vs the Big 10 at 1-4 ATS and dropped 4 of their last 5 ATS as a bowl favorite. The Badgers are a dangerous bowl dog at 6-1 ATS and should deliver.

Texas A&M/Northwestern Noon: At first glance, A&M has an overwhelming edge offensively against the more methodical Wildcats; however, instability on the coaching staff, shaky secondary coverage, sloppy play down the stretch of the season, and bowl flops have me fading the Aggies.

Texas A&M shot themselves in the foot a number of times through the course of the season with turnovers and penalties resulting in the firing of their head coach. We've already seen a number of times this bowl season when coaching changes have resulted in 0-3 ATS. We won't fight that trend here. The Aggies have issues in their secondary. They have a great pass rush but breakdowns in covering have been a problem. We'll look for accurate QB Persa (74% completions) to work underneath routes TE Dunsmore and versatile RB Colter. And he also has a solid 1000+ yard receiver in Ebert to go to. Defensively, Northwestern has their share of problems as they are physically challenged in skill areas; however, Fitzgerald does a nice job overseeing sound fundamental football.

Technically, A&M has been a bowl flop at 0-5 ATS and a play the favorite role poorly at 2-8 ATS. NW sports a 4-0 ATS mark vs the Big 12 and 3-0 ATS in bowls under Fitzgerald. We'll look for NW to hang around.

Wake Forest/Miss State 6:40: I'll give the edge to Miss State on account of a better defense and their more productive run game. Miss State likes to pound the football and should eventually wear out the Demon Deacons' defense in a lower scoring game.

Miss State has a 1000+ yard rusher in Vick Ballard they can rely on with a serviceable QB in Relf. Relf won't light up secondaries but has enough poise to limit mistakes. On the other hand, WF's HC Grobe has gotten away from his traditional philosophy of running the football. The Demon Deacons accounted for a mere 118 ypg / 3.3 ypc on the ground this season. They've opted to utilize the passing skills of their talented QB in Tanner Price. Tonight, I look for Miss State's solid defense to give him trouble. Miss State has a good secondary and they play the run well.

The SEC is the best conference in the nation and Miss State slugged it out there all season. When WF was challenged in the SEC, they were hammered (Vanderbilt).

Technically, WF has trouble in the dog role in this spread range (2-5 ATS) while Miss State closes as a favorite at 7-3 ATS and are 5-0 ATS in December. Miss State is on a 3-7 O/U run and 2-6 O/U on grass surfaces. WF is 1-4 O/U in bowl games and 2-7 O/U on grass surfaces. We'll look for Miss State to dictate the pace of this game with a strong run game and chew up WF defensively. Miss State and the Under.

L'ville/NC State 8:00: Always a high percentage play betting on NC State's HC Tom O'Brien in bowl games; after all, stemming from his days heading Boston College's program, he is 8-1 SU/ATS in his last 9 bowl games, including 3-0 ATS with the Wolfpack. I surely won't fight that trend tonight.

O'Brien had the odds stacked against him entering the season with the defection of QB Russell Wilson (Wisconsin) but rallied his troops with productive QB Glennon delivering a 5-2 SU tear down the stretch to be bowl eligible. And the defense continued where it left off last year with its opportunistic 36 takeaways, including 24 interceptions. I like good secondaries and we'll look for them to give Big East Rookie of the Year Bridgewater trouble; after all, he won't have his top target Michaelee Harris (knee) to go to.

Sure, L'ville has a solid defense but I don't think Strong and company have the wherewithal to out-coach O'Brien and staff nor slow the late season surge of the Wolfpack which rolled Clemson and miraculously came back against Maryland. The Wolfpack are 3-1-1 ATS vs the Big East and should deliver.

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*Best Bet* Detroit Over (47') for 3.5 Units ***'
Detroit/Oakland 4:05: Strong "over" trends, shaky defenses, and good offensive rhythm by both of these teams equate to a higher scoring game today. And respectable value with the 'total' based on the recent numbers posted by these ball clubs.

Both of these teams' defenses have been shaky in recent weeks and should run into more trouble today. Over the last three weeks, the Lions have given up 29 ppg, including 28 last week to offensively challenged Minnesota; over the same time span, Oakland has allowed 33 ppg. Oakland's HC Jackson has a healthy run game with Bush to help Palmer work some play action against a Detroit defense that has suddenly become vulnerable to big plays and can't stop the run (141 ypg / 5.6 ypg last 3 weeks). On the other hand, accurate and smart QB Stafford should continue to pick apart the Oakland secondary that was a mere inanimate object on the field for Aaron Rodgers to work around. And RB Kevin Smith should be good to go to give some life to the Detroit run game against the soft Oakland run stop unit (172 ypg / 5.4 ypg last 3 weeks).

Technically, Detroit is 7-1 O/U in its last 8 road games, 5-0 O/U on grass surfaces and 14-6-1 O/U in December. Oakland, which is on a 4-0 O/U run, is 7-3 O/U at home, 9-4 O/U off a SU loss and 12-3 O/U in December. "Over" it is.

Falcons/Panthers 1:00: The Falcons are in dire need of a win to stay in the Wild Card race. We'll look for Atlanta to bring their "A" game to Carolina. They've covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. What gives the Falcons the edge is defense. The Falcons have been able to get key stops in the red zone and are 3rd in the league against the run. It surely won't be easy to stop Cam Newton and company where they've dropped 35, 27 and 38 points, respectively the last three weeks on opposing defenses. But where Carolina falters is defense. And that will be problematic against Michael Turner who has accumulated 651 yards and 11 TDs in 6 games vs the Panthers. He should help fuel Matt Ryan's pass game with his strong receiving corps. And remember, Ryan is 8-2 in December as a starter.Technically, Falcons are a sweet 18-6 ATS off a SU loss and 10-1 ATS coming off an AFC opponent against a division opponent with revenge. The Panthers struggle in the dog role at 4-11 ATS and should succumb the season series today.

*Best Bet* Texas (+3) for 3.5 Units ***'Texas/Baylor 3:30: I surely respect Heisman hopeful Robert Griffin III who is an enormous talent similar to Cam Newton in versatility. Griffin III has hurt teams with his mobility and passing accuracy. However, Texas' defense has a solid formula on limiting the big play from Griffin III and the Texas offense has the effective run game that can keep the superstar QB off the field.Texas has been dominant defensively since their October 8th debacle against Oklahoma. One of the keys to their defense is their stinginess against the big play. DC Diaz uses many stunts and blitzes in his packages yet maintains safety help a majority of the time. His schemes have been effective in shutting down mobile QBs this season. And remember, It was Diaz who instituted an effective defensive scheme against Cam Newton last year while the DC at Miss State. Consequently, Mack Brown lured him into coaching for him. He now surely has the athletes to contain Griffin III.On the other hand, the Baylor defense can't stop anybody. They allow 36.7 ppg. We'll look for the Longhorns to get their effective run game going

NY Giants Over (50') for 3 Units ***Giants/Saints 8:30: Strong "over" trends and defensive injuries have me leaning heavily on this play. And with New Orleans at 4-0 O/U following a bye week, value lies on the "over"The Saints are 34-19 O/U in non division play. They're 18-7-1 O/U vs the NFC and 5-2 O/U on MNF. The Ginats are 5-1 O/U against winning teams, 3-1-1 O/U on MNF, 18-7-1 O/U vs NFC teams, and 5-2-1 O/U after scoring less than 15 points previously. The Giants won't have their key LB Boley again and they're paper thin in their secondary; consequently, we'll look for the deep backfield of New Orleans to grind out yardage on the ground against the overly aggressive front of NY; from there, Brees will use his precision passing (70% completions) in an up-tempo mode to wear out NY over the course of this game. Remember, last time NY visited here, NO hung 48 on them.On the other hand, New Orleans has been a middle of the pack defense all season. They too are vulnerable to the pass and Eli Manning is having a great year. Although he doesn't have Bradshaw tonight, he does have Ware, Jacobs (overdue for big game), and Da'rel Scott. New Orleans underrated MLB Vilma is still hobbling on a bad knee and that hurts New Orleans' defense; moreover, Manning's receiving corps is getting healthy with a host of good targets, including Nicks, Cruz, Manningham, TE Ballard. We'll look for plenty of points tonight.

Chicago (+3) for 3 Units ***Bears/Raiders 4:05: Bears have been playing outstanding football and I don't think Jay Cutler's absence will put an end to their winning run. Chicago's reserve QB Caleb Hanie has confidence and prepared. More importantly, he has a good surrounding cast that should rally behind him.The Bears should put Hanie in a good position by having him feed the ball to all purpose back Matt Forte who should dice

Pittsburgh (+7)

Detroit (+7) for 3 Units ***Green Bay/Detroit 12:30: Both teams have their share of revenge stories for this heating up division rivalry game. The Packers' offensive line wants to make up for last December's 7-3 loss in which Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game. The Lions simply want to break out of their 0-7 funk of getting the stuffing beat out of them on Turkey Day. We'll put more weighting on the latter.To steal a Ric Flair quote, "To be the man you have to beat the man." The Lions have aspirations of winning a championship and to do so will have to knock off the champ. The Lions have been competitive in this series covering the last two, including that outright win last season at home. The home crowd will aid in this today with its fever pitch attempting to distract Rodgers and company. Rodgers has been unstoppable this year and has an incredible supporting cast; however, RB Starks is hobbling and he brings an added dimension to the game not only as a runner but as a valuable receiver out of the backfield and as a pass blocker. GB is not deep in quality running backs. Detroit's defensive strength lies in their front where they've accumulated 27 sacks. We'll look for the deep defensive line of Detroit to disrupt the Packers' offensive game to a certain extent today. Detroit's offense can move the football and GB's defense is yielding. Yes, GB is very respectable defensively in regards to limiting points but Detroit has been effective closing in the red zone and that gives them an edge as a dangerous 7 point dog. Moreover, Kevin Smith has resurrected his career as a finishing runner (strong last week) and Calvin Johnson is a matchup nightmare to any cornerback. Technically, the Lions are 4-1 ATS as a home dog in this spread range. And in November, the Lions control an electric 11-1 ATS mark off a SU/ATS win vs an opponent off a favorite role. Lions the call.

Philadelphia/New York 8:20: Eagles' HC Reid has been through situations like this before where seemingly the Eagles were down and out and without their starting QB. However, he managed to thrive in those situations and we'll bet on him tonight.Reid and the Eagles are a sweet 18-4 ATS off a SU loss against a conference opponent. They're 15-2 ATS on the road in November with revenge against an opponent off an away game. And throw in the fact that they're 13-1 ATS with division revenge off a double digit ATS loss and we got a play!Sure, Mike Vick is most likely out; however, Vince Young is a capable backup who is also fleet of foot in running the Eagles' offense. It's not always the QB, it's the system that makes the QB successful. And Young fits the Eagles' system well. The Giants have shown vulnerability against the run and should get a heavy dose of the NFC's leading rusher McCoy. Consequently, Young can settle in and work comfortably in and out of the pocket with play action. Defensively, we'll look for the Eagles to contain the Giants' run game, which has stalled without Bradshaw, and force QB Manning into a mistake laden game. The Giants are a sluggish 1-11 ATS at home against a team under .500 on the road and should struggle here.

USC/Oregon 8:00: Oregon's potent no huddle offensive attack in Eugene has been easy "over" money (19-6-1 O/U) but should run into a snag here with inclimate weather in the forecast. Oregon's offensive game relies on speed and agility; however, that will be slowed on the wet Autzen Stadium carpet. And winds exceeding 15 mph should ground the passing game to a certain extent. In addition, Oregon faces a USC defense that is finally playing to its expectations with back to back strong efforts. Moreover, USC's defense allows just 21.5 ppg on the road and plays the run well. The Trojans are 8-18 O/U after a SU win of 20 +, 1-4 O/U in November, and 2-5 O/U on the road. On the other hand, the Oregon defense is tough to score on in Eugene -- allowing a measly 19.4 ppg. Matt Barkley and company will clearly have their work cut out for them. This series is 2-4 O/U and we'll look for a rare "under" in Oregon tonight.

Detroit/Chicago 4:15: I've ridden Chicago on their run and I will jump off here. Chicago looked great Monday night, but on a short week of prep and mending injuries, the well rested Lions should roar through the windy city.Detroit, which won the first matchup earlier this season, is 3-0 ATS in this series. They get DT Nick Fairley back to add to the already deep defensive front to severely test the Bears' offensive line, which has improved dramatically but due to cave in here. Cutler is only as good as his offensive line permits and it will be difficult for that banged up offensive front to win the battle today. RB Matt Forte has been outstanding but should also be held in check without a significant push from the Bears' interior. The Lions' defense sports a super 29.4% stoppage rate against opponents on 3rd down (#1 in NFL). Cutler will be hard pressed to bring the 3rd down magic he did Monday.The Lions' QB Stafford is healthy and should find his array of targets, including matchup nightmare Calvin Johnson, against the thinning Bears' secondary. The dog in this series is 17-8 ATS and I won't fight that trend. Detroit the call.

*Best Bet* Nebraska (-3) for 3.5 Units ***'Nebraska/Penn State Noon: The Nittany Lions could go into two directions in the wake of the horrific revelations this week. They could play extremely hard for their fired legendary coach (Paterno) or go into a disarray on account of the distractions. We'll clearly play the latter and jump on Nebraska.With Paterno gone and now assistant McQueary (integral part of offensive prep) put on administrative leave, focus on both sides of the ball for the 'Lions should be cloudy at best; after all, installing a game plan requires complete a great deal of preparation and I feel that was limited because of the coaching shake up. And when uncertainty (current staff knows their time is numbered) trickles down to the on-field players, tentativeness leads to mistakes. As a result, we'll look for the Cornhuskers to capitalize on the Penn State errors. Technically, Penn State is a mere 1-8 ATS against teams above .500. Nebraska, coming off an underachieving effort against N'western should bounce back in this spot; after all, they're 8-2 ATS as a favorite off a SU favorite loss going into a game vs a .500 + opponent. Nebraska the call.

NYG/New England 4:15: Good value with a NYG team that has been strong as a road dog covering 4 of its last 5 in that role. Sure, injuries have hit them with RB Bradshaw, WR Nicks and their starting center Bass. However, RB Jacobs has his opportunity to shine once again while Cruz and Manningham are dangerous enough to continue to add to the Patriots' defensive woes. NE's defense is yielding over 400 yards per game and should allow Eli Manning to continue his productive season. And even with the return of LB Mayo for NE, the Giants' TE Ballard can rack up some yardage in the Patriots soft underneath coverage that was exposed against Pittsburgh. Defensively, the Giants lead the NFL in sacks and will not let Brady set into a comfort zone in 5 to 7 step drops. NYG's HC Coughlin has covered both games against NE, including, of course, in February of 2008 -- 17-14 outright Super Bowl win. The Giants are a sweet 6-0 ATS vs .666 or greater opposition seeking revenge. With the Giants at a profitable 16-6 ATS on the road against teams with a .500 or greater record, we'll grab the generous amount of points.

*Best Bet* LSU (+5) for 3.5 Units ***'LSU/Alabama 8:00: Good value with a dangerously aggressive Tigers' team primed for road play. The Tigers are a highly respectable 5-2 ATS on the road and have had success in Alabama -- covering 4 of the last 5 there. Sure, the 'Tide has numbers that are remarkable and statistically the best defense in the NCAA; however, LSU matches well defensively and capable of limiting Alabama's explosive run game. Where I feel the Tigers have the edge is the depth at QB with the duo of Lee and Jefferson who are extremely difficult to prepare for. On the other hand, Alabama's QB McCarron will face his toughest test tonight and may struggle in his biggest game with the Alabama program. And consider this: the 'Tide is a mere 2-5 ATS off a bye week while the road team in this series has covered 12 of the last 15. Moreover, don't discount Les Miles in prime time where he's led his troops to an amazing 44-4 SU record. Throw in the dynamic Tigers' special teams play and that they're 6-1 ATS following Auburn and we have a dangerous dog to do damage.

Browns/49ers 4:15: The 49ers are a legitimate contender in the NFC while Cleveland still unproven. SF has shown good balance on both sides of the ball this season and delivering the money with a 5-0-1 ATS mark. On the other hand, the Browns have three wins over teams with a combined record of 2-16 SU. They control a 1-3-2 ATS mark for the season. Cleveland's offense is stuck in neutral. They have not demonstrated the potent run game from a year ago as RB Hillis battles hamstring injuries and the offensive line suffers through injuries; consequently, QB McCoy is struggling (56% completions) with limited big play skill players to boot. We'll look for the #2 ranked defense in points allowed and fewest rushing yards per game to stymie the Browns' pedestrian offensive attack. As a result, we'll look for favorable field position for SF. SF's QB Alex Smith has a done a solid job managing the game under Harbaugh. He and his solid supporting cast should be put into a position to gradually wear down the respectable Cleveland defense for the win and cover.

S.Miss/UTEP 8:00: Both of these teams can run the football thus creating down field play action opportunities to their big play skill players. SM compiles 209 yards per game on the ground while UTEP accumulates a solid 175. In addition, both QBs have been efficient through the air on account of their productive run games. Austin Davis is completing at a strong 65% while UTEP's Lamaison is hitting at a respectable 59%. And both defenses have their share of weaknesses that should be exploited. SM and UTEP yield around 5 yards per carry in their respective roles they play in today. And SM likes the no huddle offense, which can wear down a defense quickly, especially one like UTEP which doesn't have the high quality depth. On the other hand, UTEP's offense has big play capability and can trade points effectively on this field; after all, they kept pace with the explosive no-huddle Houston Cougars at Sun Bowl Stadium earlier this season in a track meet. UTEP is 15-7 O/U off a SU win and 6-2 O/U against a team with a winning road record. On the other hand SM is 7-1 O/U in October and 8-3 O/U in conference play. Value with the "over".

Chargers/Jets 1:00: As anticipated, the Chargers got favorable line (odds) movement on
account NY coming off a Monday Night Game (short week prep) and the brash talk by Rex
Ryan and company. However, we like the value. NY is a profitable 12-4-1 ATS on Sundays
following playing on Monday Night. And for two years the Jets have backed their verbal jabs
all the way to the AFC Championship game. SD, on the other hand, like Ryan stated, has
the talent to be "ring" worthy, but can't put it together under Norv Turner. The Chargers
lack total team balance; in other words, they're consistently deficient in at least one area of
team football en route to their underachieving 2-3 ATS mark. Special teams have been
Turners' Achilles heal and the run stop unit leaves much to be desired this season --
allowing a generous 4.6 y.p.c. And the Chargers last two trips to the Eastern Time Zone
resulted in 0-2 ATS.

Sure, SD had the week off to get Antonio Gates (foot) and Vincent Jackson (hamstring) on
the field. But their disturbing 2-12 ATS mark as a .500 or greater team in October against
an opponent off a SU/ATS win is a cause for concern.

Rex Ryan should have his men fired up to go 5-1 ATS before their bye.

North Carolina/Clemson 12:00: Good value with the Tar Heels here. Clemson, which is coming off a shootout against Maryland, is poised to falter here. The Tigers' defense leaves much to be desired, especially their run stop unit. Clemson allows 179 yards per game / 4.7 yards per carry; consequently, we'll look for North Carolina to ride their horse -- Bernard -- to allow QB Renner to settle in and make plays. Renner leads the league in passer rating (174.1) and completes a strong 75% of his passes.

On the other side of the ball, the Tar Heels will give up yardage to the explosive Clemson offense. The Tigers' QB Boyd has a sound supporting cast and surely North Carolina will have its share of problems slowing them down; however, the Tar Heels have shown grit this year under their new HC and have been competitve in every game. We'll look for them to hang around here; after all, they've covered 7 of the last 10 at this location.

Technically, the Tar Heels are a dangerous dog at 18-8 ATS; moreover they're 4-0 when given 10' or more points. We'll take the double digits with North Carolina here.

Green Bay/Atlanta 8:20: Both of these teams' defenses have glaring weaknesses. And it starts with pass defense. The Packers are giving up a generous 336 ypg through the air (next to last in the NFL) while the Falcons' secondary is having its share of problems stopping offenses frequent the end zone. On the other hand, their offenses' are clicking and should expose each others weaknesses. These teams are a combined 24-8 O/U after accumulating 250+ yards in previous game. They're also a combined 21-6 O/U in week 5. The Falcons sport an 11-5 O/U mark as a home dog in this spread range. This series has been high scoring at 5-2 O/U and we will not fight that trend tonight.

*Best Bet* Iowa (+4') for 3.5 Units ***'Iowa/Penn State 3:30: It would be an understatement to say Iowa has been an outstanding competitor under HC Ferentz in recent years; after all, they haven't lost a game by more than a TD over the last three seasons. Today, we feel Iowa has what it takes to be competitive here. Iowa QB Vandenberg is doing a solid job managing the offense -- completing 63% of his passes with a solid 10:1 TD:INT ratio. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 ATS in this series and covered 7 of their last 9

*Best Bet* Tulsa (-23) for 3.5 Units ***'North Texas/Tulsa 7:00: Tulsa is a veteran team that has been up against stiff competition (OK, OK State) on the road. Tonight, at home, the Golden Hurricane should lay a knockout punch against a lightweight Mean Green team. G.J. Kinne, who has been mediocre thus far, should get back in 2010 form and light up the NT secondary -- which is a step slower than who Kinne has faced thus far. On the other hand, the NT offense is not productive enough to hang with a respectable Tulsa defense that has been up against very strong offensive talent. Tonight, the Tulsa defense won't face that kind of talent and should stymie the not so Mean Green offense that struggles to put points on the board. Tulsa is 3-0 ATS in this series. NT is a shaky 2-11 ATS off a DD ATS win and 0-5 ATS as a dog of more than 19 points. NT Head Coach -- McCarney has never been a money maker as a double-digit dog (while at Iowa State).

Jets/Raiders 4:05: Last week, the Raiders made poor halftime adjustments to blow the game. They're likely to see more problems this week. The Jets are gradually gearing up offensively while their defense remains rock solid. Oakland's receiving corps is banged up and that should make life even more miserable for QB Campbell as the Jets will surely unleash a variety of blitzes from all angles to rattle him. The Jets went to Oakland in October of 2009 and blasted them 38-0. Oakland is a poor 1-9 ATS in September at home against a non-division opponent. We'll roll with New York here.

*Best Bet* Washington (pick) for 3.5 Units ***'California/Washington 3:30: Huskies' HC Sarkisian has the program going in the right direction and Washington should bounce back here after falling at Nebraska. The Huskies are a sweet 4-0 ATS off a double-digit loss against an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. The Huskies have covered four of the last five in this series including the last two years as a SU winner. Defensively, the Huskies need work and should put forth a better effort for their DC Holt. Offensively, Washington's Keith Price is having a productive year (11/3 TD/INT 64% completions) and a solid surrounding cast. California is coming off a big win over lightweight Presbyterian and should continue to struggle against a Huskies' team that is developing a strong home field once again.

Oakland Over (41) for 3 Units ***Oakland/Buffalo 1:00: Raiders' offense continues to be productive and should dent Buffalo's defense that ambushed an unprepared Chief's squad. Oakland's McFadden, who continues to be a productive rusher, should aid QB Jason Campbell's passing game. And Campbell will have TE Kevin Boss -- making his Raiders' debut. Meanwhile, Buffalo also picked up where they left off last season in solid offensive production. QB Fitzpatrick doing a nice job at the helm. Buffalo's offense is a few notches better than Denver, in which Oakland faced last week; consequently, we'll look for the Bills to put some points on the board in their home opener.The Bills are 6-2-1 O/U as a home favorite in this spread range. Oakland, on the other hand, is 11-4 O/U in September and 9-4 O/U as a dog. "Over" it is.

Dallas/New York 8:20: We look at the Jets as overvalued here based on a few variables, including a sluggish mark of 4-9 as a home favorite of 3' to 10. Cowboys' HC Garrett did a nice job winning or hanging around in defeats (no loss over 3 points) in his 5-3 SU/ATS mark as the interim head coach last year. This year, Garrett has the luxury of starter Tony Romo back and solid off-season moves/acquisitions. Moreover, DC Rob Ryan will add some controlled aggressiveness to his defensive unit against a Jets' ball control offense. Cowboys have covered their last 5 as a dog and we'll look for them to cover here.

*Best Bet* Green Bay (-2') for 4 Units ****
Steelers/Packers 6:30: When the line came out on this game, we initially thought that Pittsburgh would be in
the small favorite role; however, after further consideration, we find the number to be justifiable for these
reasons: Offensively, any team that had success against Pittsburgh's defense used a formula involving
spreading them out and throwing the football. New England comes to mind in their 36-29 demolition of
Pittsburgh at Hines Field; a game that wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated because of the late
garbage time touchdowns by Pittsburgh after the game was decided. Of course, a strong armed QB with a
high football IQ, stable offensive line, and strong receiving corps is needed. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers
and his supporting cast fit the bill to tire out the Steelers' defense, which is built to beat down run games but
vulnerable to finesse passing teams. We'll look for the Packers to occasionally resort to a no-huddle
offense and tire them out. On the other hand, the Steelers' offense, which also has big play ability in its
more conservative yet effective methodical run and play-action pass game. It's led by a great QB --
Roethlisberger, but missing a key ingredient - Center -- Pouncey (ankle). Sure backup Legursky did a
decent job against New York but did make critical mistakes, including botched snap near goal line that
resulted in a safety. The Packers have three impact players defensively in CB Woodson, LB Mathews, and
DL Raji who have and should continue their success in this game exploiting areas of weakness on the
Pittsburgh offensive line. Green Bay the call.

New England (-9) for 2.5 Units **'New York/New England 4:30: New England finished the regular season as the hottest team in the NFL on a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS run and history shows the Patriots should maintain their elite status here. NE sports a 45-24 ATS mark off a win against their division. Few coaches can decipher opponent's tendencies and institute a game plan to exploit the weaknesses as well as Belichick. In the last matchup, NE's pass offense torched the Jets' defense over the middle of the field with Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez. Having two of the best cornerbacks in the NFL won't do a bit of good if you can't cover the middle of the field. Today, the edge of the field may not be that secure for New York with Cromartie (groin) and Revis (hamstring) ailing; moreover, their nickel back --Drew Coleman -- injured his knee in practice Thursday and is questionable; consequently, that's not good against the dangerous passing game of New England. We'll look for another methodical game approach from New England to carve up the Jets here. On the other hand, the Jets' offense can become downright predictable at times and that should cause more New York offensive stall outs here. The Patriots are 13-3 ATS in this spread range at home, and with the home team at 4-0 ATS in this series, we'll stay with New England.

Oregon/Auburn 8:30: We realize that the best player on the field is Cam Newton and he is capable of taking
over a game of this magnitude similar to Vince Young's legendary 2006 Rose Bowl in which he lead Texas
to the win over USC for the National Championship. And the Auburn defense is no slouch either. The
Tigers' Nick Fairley is the most dominant DT this season. Both of the aforementioned stars have a very
good supporting cast. We will go with the Ducks for these reasons: Oregon's defense is more gap sound
than many of Auburn's opponents this season. The Ducks' linebacker corps plays instinctively well behind a
sold front line that can hold its point of attack. And they'll need to against the veteran Auburn offensive line.
The Ducks' defense had 35 takeaways (20 INTs / 15 fumble recoveries). They're well balanced at each
level of defense. We'll look for the disciplined Ducks' defense to show a level of containment against
Newton and company. On the other hand, the Ducks high powered offensive machine has too many
weapons to contain over four quarters. Their fast pace (13 seconds or less between plays) and explosive
speed at skill positions make it a nightmare for DC's because they can't substitute freely and don't have
enough fresh quality bodies to send in over the course of four quarters. The Auburn defense isn't the
deepest and has been exposed this season. The Ducks have outscored foes 277 to 77 after half-time and
should deliver late. And the special teams edge goes to Oregon with Cliff Harris, who has a 19.5 yard per
punt return, can clearly be a major force there and as a defender. Oregon learned its post-season mistake
last year against Ohio State; consequently, during their layoff, they worked hard and fast to maintain their
superior offensive rhythm. We'll look for Oregon to deliver.

Green Bay/Philadelphia 4:30: We played the Eagles successfully on a few occasions but will jump off the
bandwagon here. Their defense is a mid-range caliber unit and their secondary is thin; moreover, Philly has
allowed 31 touchdown passes this season --putting them in the bottom tier of the NFL. We don't believe the
inclement weather will stall out Aaron Rodgers and company. And the Packers have a tendency to make
corrective action after sluggish offensive outings as their 7-1 ATS mark following scoring less than 15 points
in previous game indicates. On the other hand, the Eagles have the explosive offense; however, their red
zone struggles continue where they are stuck in the bottom tier of the league. Green Bay's defense gives
up yardage but stingy in the red zone and allow just 15 ppg. GB's veteran DC Capers has the formula on
how to neutralize Vick and it starts and ends with well disguised blitzes from all angles. The Packers can
rush the QB and if sack master Clay Mattews, who goes against the hobbling RT Justice, isn't enough,
doses of Charles Woodson off the corner will rattle Vick. And as much as we praised DeSean Jackson this
season -- for he truly is one of the best in the NFL, he has a tendency to be quieted this time of year. And
with Woodson on him today, we'll look for little noise out of him. Eagles don't play the small home favorite
role well at 3-7 ATS. We'll grab Green Bay here.

Jets/Colts 8:00: The Jets are out to seek revenge from last year's AFC Championship game and have a
real good chance of upsetting the Colts here. The Jets come into this game relatively healthy compared to
the Colts, which have a number of key injuries on both sides of the ball. The Jets' defense, which racked up
40 sacks on the year, got after the QB down the stretch registering 19 over the final six weeks. The Colts
won't have G Thomas (ankle) in and the Indianapolis' offense is all about protecting QB Manning. The Jets
have a good weaponry, including specialty teams star Brad Smith who can also be a productive offensive
force. Jets are 7-1 ATS as a small road dog while the Colts have struggled as a home favorite at 1-4 ATS.
Jets the call.

Middle Tenn State/Mia Ohio 8:00: We normally don't like radical change anytime of the year involving key players or coaches; however, in this instance, losing Haywood should not hurt the Redhawks, which are equipped with a very good coaching staff. Guidry (interim coach) should manage the game well enough here. Miami closed the season strong, established a running game in the process --from 3.4 ypc to 5.6 down the stretch--as RB Merriweather found his holes. What we also liked about Miami OH over their last five games is the fact that they not only won on the scoreboard but they won on the stat sheet in rushing, passing and total yards. Reserve QB Boucher did a nice job managing the offense down the stretch. On the other hand, we realize MTSU won their bowl game last year behind QB Dasher; however, his time off (suspension) hurt his rhythm with the offense for the Blue Raiders were turnover laden (33 - tied for worst in nation). We'll look for the aggressive Redhawks' defense, which allowed just 13 ppg over their last 3 games, to continue their strong play and further disrupt Dasher and company. Miami Ohio the call.

Arkansas/Ohio State 8:30: Despite the impressive defensive numbers that the Buckeyes put up, they
have not faced a team with the high quality of offensive balance that Arkansas has, especially late in the
season when the Hogs got their running game cooking with Knile-Davis. Arkansas' QB Mallet has a
strong supporting cast, including a veteran offensive line that helped accumulate nearly 500 yards per
game and 37 ppg. The OSU defense has not registered as many sacks this year as in recent years and
their secondary is thin at a depth standpoint. We'll look for the Hogs to put points on the board; at the
same time, the Buckeyes' offense is at full strength, thanks to a delay in the suspensions, and should
unload against a suspect Arkansas defense. Arkansas finished 5-1 O/U down the stretch and they're 6-
1 O/U as a dog. OSU is 4-0 O/U in non-conference play and 5-1 O/U as a favorite in this range. "Over"
the call.