Dolphins/Bills 1:00: Bills got swept in this series last year including a rare loss at New Era Field on Christmas Eve; however, unlikely to happen today in freezing temperature in Buffalo. Miami sports a money burning 48-67 ATS mark in December. And let's remember they're last two games were at home where they are quite comfortable; however, on the road, Miami has been outscored by 91 points as a traveler in 5 games this year. Buffalo's RB McCoy is running well and Tyrod Taylor will be back behind center. Dolphins coming off a huge win as I projected last Monday. Dolphins 1-6 ATS off a MNF game and should lay an egg here. 

Seahawks/Jaguars 4:25: Pete Carroll always finds a way for his troops to stay in games and no different here. Sure, Seattle has a few key injuries (Chancellor, Sherman) and Wagner and Bennett are questionable; at the same time, it is December football and no one is completely healthy with the Jags having their share of injuries too. I'm not completely sold on the Jaguars who suffer the Jekyll and Hyde personality with a 1-5 ATS ledger off an ATS win. And their December ledger is nothing to write home about at 40-54 SU. The Jaguars' defense has been awesome with an awesome sack percentage without blitzing; however, the Seahawks took care of one of the best NFL defensive units last week against Philadelphia; today, Russell Wilson (MVP frontrunner) and company should find a way to work the weakness of the Jaguars' secondary. On the other end of the spectrum, with the game is on the line, Bortles is not the guy you want running the show. I'll gladly take the points with the Seahawks who are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road tilts and 5-1 in Week 14. 

Titans/Colts 1:00: Go back to October 16th when the Colts were banged up yet covered for 59 1/2 minutes against the Titans until RB Henry broke loose for a meaningless 72 yard run with 47 seconds remaining. Colts are coming off their bye-week pretty healthy. Keep in mind that the Colts covered three straight leading in to their bye - holding foes to an average of just 298 YPG, including almost upsetting Pittsburgh as a 10 point dog. Colts are 18-11 SU off a bye and dangerous as a dog of more than a point at 15-1 ATS! Tennessee, on the other hand, is a money burning 11-23-2 ATS off a SU loss and 0-9 ATS at Indianapolis. And you've lost your shirt consistently betting on Tennessee with a collective 17-46 ATS overall slide. Colts' QB Brissett is doing a bang up job filling in for Luck (shoulder). He's passed concussion protocol and good to go today. We'll look for the Colts to avenge their earlier season loss. 

USF/UCF 3:30: Both of these teams have taken on a relatively light schedule but believe UCF is more equipped to deliver. USF has been a prohibitive favorite in every game this season and will get rocked here. UCF is well balanced with few weaknesses. The 'Knights are tied for the #1 turnover margin in the nation equipped with a ball hawking secondary led by Gibson and Hughes who have combined for seven interceptions. And of course, their defensive front plays a big role getting after the passer. USF' O-line has shielded QB Flowers quite well this season allowing just 14 sacks but will face his toughest test today vs a fast and powerful UCF front seven. Offensively, the Golden Nights boast the #1 scoring offense in the nation led by QB Milton who has a veteran line and great skill supporting cast. UCF HC Frost ran the Oregon high flying offense under Chip Kelly and runs a similar offensive machine here. We'll look for a little extra today after bitter taste in mouth remains from last year's 48-31 loss when then coach - Taggart elected to score a touchdown with 11 seconds left with the game in hand. UCF the call. 

Ravens/Packers 1:00: There's a reason why the Ravens are a slight favorite here on a field they haven't won on beyond this century (0-4 ATS). Ravens are a well rested bunch off a bye week and getting healthy. As we know this season, teams off a bye are 11-4; Baltimore is a sweet 7-2 ATS off a bye under Harbaugh, including 2-1 ATS on the road. They're also 8-1 ATS laying more than a point with rest. And QB Flacco is getting back a few weapons this week in RB Woodhead and WR Maclin. On the other hand, GB coming off a win but even more banged up. The Packers' O'Line has surrendered 30 sacks (bottom tier of NFL) this year and have their versatile QB Hundley laboring with a hamstring issue. Like the ball hawking secondary of Baltimore; moreover, the stingy run stop unit of Baltimore should handcuff GB into forced east/west passing with their top two running backs banged up. Baltimore the call. 

Michigan/Wisconsin Noon: Now that Harbaugh has settled in on Brandon Peters as the QB, the Wolves are not turning the football over and keeping coach happy while pounding the ball with RB Chris Evans. Wisconsin's QB Hornibrook, on the other hand, has an interception problem - getting picked in every conference game this season. That does not bode well against Don Brown's well disciplined defense. Michigan plays into Wisky's strength - the run game and I'm going to bet the Wolves don't get gashed like the other Badgers' opponents. Wisconsin's played a relative soft schedule and will get tested here. Michigan's held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 14 points or less. We'll roll with Big Blue here knowing they're 5-1 ATS in the second of back to back road games, and 6-1 ATS as dogs off a double digit ATS win. We'll gladly take a touchdown and hook as our top play!

Texans/Rams 4:05: I'm still fading the Texans with Savage as the QB. The offense is reduced considerably without Watson and the Rams' defense isn't forgiving. The Rams' defense allows 19 PPG and sound against the run and ball hawking in the secondary. I don't see Lamar Miller establishing a run game against Aaron Donald and company. On the other hand, the Rams are rolling offensively with a plethora of weapons at the disposal for QB Goff. Rams dropping 33 PPG on teams and now that vertical threat Watkins is getting involved, more upside awaits. Don't see the pedestrian Houston offense trading points effectively here. Texans 1-6 ATS on the road against a team with winning home record. Rams the call. 

Michigan State/Ohio State Noon: Value with the Spartans which have covered four straight in Columbus; as a matter of fact, the visitor in this series during the regular season has not only covered but won SU six straight times! Sure, OSU is fired up off one of the biggest losses in the Urban Meyer era; however, Michigan State clearly no pushover with the 12th ranked defense (total yards) in the NCAA and they play well against OSU's strength - the run. JT Barrett and Dobbins are a formidable force on the ground but the Spartans are 3rd in the nation against the run and have a disciplined secondary; moreover, like the QB play of the Spartans' QB Lewerke who has passed for +400 yards in two straight games including last week against Penn State. And Michigan State grinds out 157 YPG on the ground. They'll clearly make it difficult for the Buckeyes. Buckeyes a troublesome 1-7 ATS after allow more than 35 points. Michigan State the call. 

Colts/Texans 1:00: Mid week, this line dropped sharply from Hou -11 to -7 on the announcement of QB Watson's injury (ACL). Enter Tom Savage and Houston's explosive offense is now reduced to its early in the season pedestrian attack. Savage was merely an average, at best, QB in college. Now, he does have Will Fuller and a some surrounding skill talent; however, he moves like a drunken alligator in the pocket and has yet to throw a touchdown pass. Clearly, the QB running threat taken out of the equation, which worked so well when Deshaun Watson was running the show. On the other hand, Colts' QB Brissett doing a great job and should guide his bunch into the end zone frequently vs a Texans' defense that's allowing 27 PPG. Sure, Colts are even worse; however, they've played the Texans tough in Texas going 3-0-1 ATS there. And let's not forget HC Pagano's record of 14-2 ATS as a dog of more than 1 point off a SU loss. Indy the call.

Bears/Saints 1:00: Bears' defense was depleted in linebackers weeks ago vs Minnesota yet still managed to cover; as a matter of fact, they've covered 4 of their last 5 games. DC Vic Fangio has done a sensational job preparing his unit. Over the last two weeks, the Bears' defense have been an opportunistic group forcing multiple turnovers and three defensive scores. Sure, Saints' offense running on all cylinders but they most likely will be without their best receiver - Michael Thomas (knee). And Trubisky is getting comfortable in the system and surely offers a different dimension to the offense with his scrambling ability; moreover, run game with Howard and Cohen is solid and should give the underachieving Saints' defense problems; moreover, Trubisky will have Dontrelle Inman from the Chargers and he'll see action. Bears 8-0 ATS off SU/ATS win vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. 

Panthers/Bucs 1:00: Carolina coming off two losses but should get it back together with All-Pro linebacker Kuechly cleared to play. The Panthers' defense so much better with him in the lineup and a legitimate #1 defense. Offensively, Carolina has to clean up their game. They're minus 8 turnover and that's not the makeup off a playoff team. Newton should, however, help ignite the offense against a TB defense that has trouble rushing the passer. Newton's been under duress virtually all year and should find his MOJO here. Panthers 6-2 ATS in the series. And remember that they're 5-1 ATS on the road and 4-0 ATS in Tampa. Panthers deliver. 

Louisville/Florida State Noon: Big revenge game for the Seminoles who were embarrassed at Louisville last year 63-20. This year, Florida State defense much healthier including the return of safety Derwin James who missed last year's game. Fla State offense reading pedestrian in the stats; however, a closer look reveals an increased run game over the last few weeks with breakout performances from RBs Akers and Patrick; consequently, that's taking pressure off QB Blackman who struggles at times but makes big plays and growing every week. I'm looking for Jimbo Fisher to dial up a nice plan of attack against a Louisville run defense that's gotten gashed in recent weeks including allowing BC 364 yards! Louisville is on a 3-13 ATS slide overall and 0-6 ATS in conference games after allowing 35+ points. Florida State delivers.

Rams/Jaguars 4:05: Who would have thought the Rams would be one of the most prolific scoring teams in the NFL at this point of the season with 30.4 PPG? A revamped offensive line, some good off season acquisitions for skill personnel and good coaching. We'll look for Gurley and company to work the Jaguars' shaky run-stop-unit. Last week, the Jaguars sacked Roethlisberger 10 times! Jaguars have been a puzzle. They've looked like world beaters one week and lost the next. They've alternated wins and losses since opening week -- in which I had them pegged to beat Houston. Remember, HC Doug Marrone sports just a 2-9 ATS mark off a SU dog win when facing a non division opponent. And he's 1-7 ATS vs a non division opponent off a SU loss. Today, I'm fading a Jaguars team that's 14-24 ATS in October and just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 at EverBank Field. We'll look for savvy LA DC Wade Phillips to dial up some heat on Fournette and company. Surely, QB Bortles has been less than stellar off big wins. Rams 11-5-1 ATS in week 6 and we'll roll with them.

Oklahoma/Texas 3:30: Revenge game for Texas and we'll side with Tom Herman who has the Longhorns heading in the right direction. Texas has covered 4 straight after their disastrous season opening loss at home to Maryland. Longhorns' Freshman QB Ehlinger getting it done and gaining confidence in the process; moreover, he gets back starting center Shackelford. As for OU, injuries are popping up: safety Parker, RB Adams, WR Lamb, G Samia, DL Lampkin. I do realize QB Mayfield is a winner but questioning new leadership of sooners under Lincoln Riley. Too many points to give to a hungry and vengeful Longhorns team that's gone 4-1-1 ATS at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas in this series. Texas the call.  

Cardinals/Eagles 1:00: Cardinals not as bad as line indicates and Philadelphia not as good as line indicates. You do remember how Philadelphia shot out of the gate strong at 3-0 before losing 9 of their next 11. I don't know about another free fall for them but they should have trouble in this spot. Arizona is 6-0 ATS in this series and Arians sports a superb 19-6 SU/ATS mark vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Moreover, the Cardinals are 11-1 ATS on the road vs a .700 or greater non division team. Arizona defense showing gradual signs of improvement. On the other hand, Philadelphia's pass defense in the bottom tier of the NFL and vulnerable here; after all, Carson Palmer has rung up some big numbers on the Eagles (905 yards with 6 TDs). We'll take the points.

Mia Fla/Florida State 3:30: Jimbo Fisher has owned Mia Fla since he's been head coach. Fla State is 7-0 SU in this series but it should definitely end today; after all, the Seminoles have been hanging on after QB Francois got injured against Alabama. Blackman, his replacement, has been spotty at best. He did make a big play last week at WF to survive; however, those occasional big plays won't be enough against this Mia-Fla team. The 'Canes are officially back under Richt and dangerous on both sides of the ball. Mia-Fla's QB Rosier has a boat load of weapons including RB Walton (ankle) who is above average even with a sprained ankle. Canes are pounding out nearly 200 yards of offense more than the Seminoles. And the Hurricanes' defense is allowing just 16.3 PPG with an opportunistic ball hawking secondary. Canes in a good spot as favorites of more than 2 points in the 2nd of back-to-back road games. Mia-Fla the call. 

Colts/Seahawks 8:30: Good spot for the Seahawks on the Prime Time slot where Pete Carroll has thrived. Seattle is overdue for a big game and it should come here. Indy is feeling good after squeaking by the struggling Browns; however, a significant step up at the noisiest venue in the NFL for QB Brissett. Seattle defense was embarrassed last week in Tennessee and eager to atone for that tonight on national TV. T.Y. Hilton, who caught 153 yards and a TD should be locked down by Richard Sherman. And the fierce Seattle pass rush should win the battle of the LOS against a struggling Colts' offensive line. Defensively, the Colts are allowing a generous 30 PPG and that's the perfect elixir for a Seattle offense on the verge of gaining momentum. Seattle is a sweet 22-6-2 ATS after passing for more than 250 yards previously. Seattle has also proven to bounce back strong off SU losses at 7-2 ATS. They've also covered 5 of their last 7 home tilts. Seattle rolls.

Memphis/Central Fla 7:00: UCF sports a veteran unit on both sides of the ball that went bowling last year. They're well balanced with a potent offense led by QB McKenzie (67% completions - 5 TD/1 INT). They'll rip through a tattered Memphis defense that has been ravaged by injuries. Already with 3 starters out, their safety Shaun Rupert left the game on crutches last week. And the Tigers are in the lower tier defensively in most categories to begin with. UCF's Scott Frost will most definitely find ways of exploiting the weaknesses. As for Memphis offense, they're explosive; however, the 12th ranked scoring defense of the Knights can hold their own on this field. The host in this series is 5-0 ATS and UCF is poised to deliver.

Chiefs/Chargers 4:25: Andy Reid usually finds a way to dispatch the lower tier teams of the conference and, surely in the division. Chiefs 10-1 ATS vs less than .500 division opponent off a non division game. And Reid finally has some great offensive skill impact players: explosive vertical threat Tyreek Hill, newfound super RB Kareem Hunt and the second best tight end in the NFL Kelsey. And the offensive line is doing an outstanding job while Alex Smith is enjoying a breakout year: 78% 5 TDs/0 INT. Defensively, Derrick Johnson has made it back from injury and Justin Houston and Chris Jones are ruthless as pass rushers. Reid has owned the AFC West and the declining Chargers are not standing in their way. QB Rivers has struggled against KC to the tune of 5 TD/7 INTs. Chargers are finding new ways to lose games and are not welcomed in Los Angeles -- attendance low. With SD just 1-7 ATS as a home dog of 3 or more with revenge against an opponent over .400, KC the call. 

Cincinnati/Navy 3:30: Value with the good traveling team here as a double digit dog. Navy's offense hasn't shown the dominance it has in the past few years. They're facing a stout defense that went to the Big House in Ann Arbor and held Michigan to a three touchdowns earned. We'll look for the well disciplined Bearcats' defense to play sound assignment football vs the Midshipmen Triple Option. On the other hand, the Bearcats' offense needs work but Navy's defense has areas in the secondary that can be exploited. Bearcats' QB Hayden Moore, who had receivers drop six balls last week, should finally get it together with his skill guys today. Navy just 2-5 ATS off a bye week and 3-7 ATS at home against a team with winning road record. The Bearcats' defense should keep them in this game. 

Dolphins/Chargers 4:05: Chargers not thoroughly accepted by the fans of Los Angeles. And it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't fill the 30,000 seat StubHub Center. Chargers on a short week off their MNF loss. Miami, on the other hand, had extra rest because of the hurricane. The Dolphins practiced last week in Oxnard, CA; therefore, they're well acclimated to the west coast and the time change. A concern is the Chargers 0-8 ATS mark vs an opponent with rest and the 1-8 ATS off a SU/ATS division loss in September. The Dolphins have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series including last year's 31-24 win. QB Cutler is not a favorite but Adam Gase worked with him extensively during his best year's in Chicago and should have him ready. He surely has a good supporting cast with RB Ajayi and a talented receiving corps. Defensively, Miami is strong along the line with Suh and sack master DE Wake. Not optimistic about the direction the Chargers are going. And with Gase 4-1 as a dog of less than 6 points, we'll grab the points with the Dolphins.

Baylor/Duke 12:30: Trouble brewing for the Bears after losing to two lightweights to open the season. QB change won't help as the Duke defense continues to impress in the Cutcliffe era. And QB Daniel Jones now emerging as a top caliber ACC signal caller. Blue Devils a strong 5-0 ATS as favorites of more than 4 points against less than .500 opposition. Baylor a poor 1-8 ATS as dogs of less than 17 points vs opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Rhule's new recruits will need time to become battle tested as they take it on the chin again. 

Seahawks/Packers 4:25: Heavy action all over the Packers here. I'm going the opposite direction with the vengeful Seahawks. Pete Carroll a sweet 14-1 ATS as a dog with revenge. Seahawks had this one circled on their calendar ever since getting pasted at Lambeau Field 38-10 last December. Today, the Legion of Boom is healthy with key playmaker S Earl Thomas back along with Sherman, Wagner and Chancellor. And with the addition of Sheldon Richardson (Jets), the Seahawks will be fine up front once again. On the other hand, despite Rawls (ankle) questionable, leaner and meaner Eddie Lacy will get a chance to burrow over his former teammates. We'll look for continued improvement in Seattle's weakness -- O Line. Offensive line coach Tom Cable shuffled the line effectively and they're much improved where they were a year ago. Packers' defense was the league worst against the pass last year and despite the acquisitions, will need time for it to improve. Seattle the call.

East Carolina/West Virginia Noon: West Virginia, who I faded last week, actually played well on both sides of the ball against V Tech. Defensively, the stats look horrible but the Mounties were strong until cramps and attrition took over. Today, no such luck against the Pirates. Pirates are unsettled at QB and Sirk is no Josh Jackson (V Tech). Turnovers and sluggish play doomed East Carolina last week at home against FCS heavyweight James Madison. WV's DC Tony Gibson should come up with another great scheme to stall out the Pirates' offense... And Scottie Montgomery's defense, which slipped 51 YPG last year, is on its way to getting thrashed for the second week in a row. JM hung 614 yards on them last week and WV is even more potent as West Virginia's QB Will Grier showed he's still got game. Grier and the loaded skill personnel that the Mounties possess should have this one over at half time. Pirates struggling on the road under Montgomery at 0-6 ATS, should continue their slide and fall to 1-6 ATS at Morgantown.

South Carolina/NC State 3:00: Like the Wolfpack's senior laden roster that went 8-4 ATS last year including a 41-17 demolition in their bowl game against Vanderbilt. NC State had a top 10 run stop unit last year and they bring back their entire front 7. Sure, South Carolina's young team was competitive last year and will be better but not at the level of the Wolfpack. South Carolina's offense was 120th in total offense last year and do have 10 returning starters on the offensive end including QB Jake Bentley. The Wolfpack, however, has plenty of firepower of their own including utility star Jaylen Samuels and an experienced offensive line. NC State is a strong 23-3 SU/18-5 ATS when they outgain their opponent under head coach Dave Doeren. NC State's program is further along than Muschamp's Gamecocks. NC State the call.

Patriots/Falcons 6:30: At first glance of the opening line, I was a bit surprised; after all, I was thinking New England (-5). I'm going to stand strong by my conviction and stay on New England despite Gronkowski's absence. Yes, I realize Julio Jones and the many other weapons at the disposal of Matt Ryan will be a difficult task, but the best coach in the business in Belichick is the one to have on your side in neutralizing that explosive Falcons' attack. On the flip end, having arguably the greatest QB to stride a Super Bowl playing field on your side is the ultimate comforting feeling. Brady has gotten into rhythm with his cast of receivers and the Patriots' run game is also cooking. Thanks to the Patriots' offensive line coach - Scarnecchia, the Falcons' defense -- which is at times vulnerable, will have its trouble. Scheming, coaching and experience give New England the edge and cover here.

Lions/Cowboys 8:30: After a sluggish season start, Detroit has been a spread darling on a 7-3 ATS run. They have come off two sluggish outings but should do well here. Detroit is a strong 5-1 ATS on MNF and covered 5 of last 6 in this series. Detroit QB Stafford should be able to dissect a vulnerable Cowboys' secondary that has been worked against good QBs with passing games. Detroit has trouble running football but can roll up the passing yards. Detroit a sweet 24-9 ATS after scoring less than 15 points previously. Dallas is historically shaky in this season stretch at 0-5 ATS in December. And they're a disappointing 6-13 ATS at home and 2-8 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more vs a .500 opponent.

Broncos/Chiefs 8:30: Most are pounding the "under" tonight based on the series history and the defensive prowess of these teams; however, at a closer glance, these teams at Arrowhead combined for 63 (2013), 45 (2014) and 55 points last season. Furthermore, 45-21-3 O/U off a SU loss and 7-3 O/U off a double digit SU loss. And this is the lowest total set at Arrowhead all season. The weather is a non factor with unseasonably warm temperatures, light winds and no precipitation projected. KC is an amazing 10-2 O/U at home when the O/U line is less than 40. With key defensive injuries on both sides of ball, we'll look for a prime time surplus in scoring.

Arkansas State/Central Florida: Not sold on Arkansas State's 7-1 run down the stretch in which was attained against mediocre Sun Belt Conference foes. When the Red Wolves have gone outside of conference, they flopped at 0-6 ATS. On the other hand, UCF, which went winless last season, did well this season under Scott Frost. The former Nebraska QB brought to the Knights' veteran offensive personnel a playbook out of Chip Kelly's offense. Frost served as Kelly's OC in the Mariotta and Vernon Adams years. The Knights have responded well going 8-4 ATS and posses a strong defensive unit with a ball hawking secondary. UCF turned in some strong road wins including an outright at Houston! And with this game practically in UCF's backyard in Orlando, we'll ride the Knights here.

Ravens/Patriots 8:30: Ravens have been competitive in this series at Foxborough to the tune of 4-0-1 ATS. Baltimore is in the hunt for a playoff wildcard and should play with a sense of urgency. Defense is playing very well and should put in a strong performance against Brady (knee) and his limited cast of experienced weaponry with Gronkowski and Amendola on the rack. And TE Bennett dealing with ankle and shoulder injuries. On the other hand, QB Flacco has enjoyed strong performances against NE and he's shaken out of his early season struggles to finally establishing a rhythm with his receivers. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS on Monday Night Football and a sweet 19-9-1 ATS against winning teams. With the dog in this series at 5-1-1 ATS, we'll look for Baltimore to stick around here.

Ohio U/Miami OH: The Redhawks have been competitive the last two years under Martin and have solid mid-major talent with experience. They've faced a tough schedule this season and despite 0-4 SU are 3-1 ATS. The 'Hawk talent is poised to break out here in triple revenge mode. Dog is 3-1-1 ATS in series and MOU is 6-1-1 ATS off SU loss.  Ohio U in trouble spot at 1-8 as as fav after scoring 35+. Miami OH gets first win.

Cowboys/Redskins 1:00: Road team in this series is 4-0 ATS and like the situation here. Skins off Monday game 1-4 ATS and face vengeful Cowboys (lost to Wash last game of year) squad that's 10-1 off SU loss w/ revenge vs

Cardinals/Panthers 6:40: Cardinals weren't convincing in their win last week but that was expected (had GB +7'). And Carson Palmer looked shaky at best in his playoff moment; however, the important thing is that Palmer and the Cardinals finished and advanced. Today, Palmer should settle in and get back to establishing the nice rhythm we saw from him throughout the regular season. The Panthers do have holes in their secondary that can be exploited as Russell Wilson demonstrated in the second half of last week's game with a masterful performance. The Panthers shaky second half of that game gives me reason to believe Arizona can deliver here; after all, Arizona can also atone for last year's 27-16 loss behind a third string QB who guided the offense to a grand total of 88 yards and they were a mere 6 points away from covering the game! Keep in mind Bruce Arians is 12-0 ATS as a dog of less than 4 points. The Cardinals are dangerous here and we'll take them.

Seahawks/Panthers 1:05: We've seen this scenario unfold before where an NFL team suffers a demoralizing regular season defeat only to come back in the playoffs and win/cover; as for Pete Carroll, he's a sweet 11-0 ATS as a dog w/ revenge and I'm riding Seattle. The pressure is put on Carolina as a maiden championship contender in the Cam Newton era. Sure, he is every bit the MVP analysts say he is; however, the Seattle defense is healthy and dangerous this time of year. Moreover, the Seahawks are battle tested after playing in frigid sub zero temps at Minn last week; consequently, today's 40 degree climate in Charlotte will feel like paradise. Sure, Carolina is well rested but keep in mind Carolina's HC Rivera is 1-6 ATS with rest. And let's not underestimate Russell Wilson who is often overlooked among NFL elite. He makes big plays when needed at crucial times -- as exhibited last week at Minnesota. And he has enough surrounding talent to put a dent in the Panthers' defense now that Lynch is added to the mix. Seattle the dangerous dog once again.

Chiefs/Patriots 4:35: Both offenses should have trouble getting generated today in Foxborough. KC will most likely be without their top wideout - Maclin . and surely defensive minded Belichick will have a scheme to limit KC's top target TE Kelce while spying elusive QB Alex Smith. Look for New England to get aggressive schematically with their run stop unit to get KC in third and long repeatedly. On the other hand, New England is thin at RB --deep in their rotation because of injuries -- and ranked 30th in the league in rushing. KC has a ball hawking secondary and will be focusing on Gronk and the return of Edelman (foot) who has been out since November 15.  KC is 1-5 O/U off a SU win of 14+, 1-5 O/U in January, and 2-5 O/U in playoffs. The sleeting conditions at Foxborough with the 12 MPH winds won't help the offenses either. This series is 1-4 O/U in its last 5 meetings and we'll stay Under today.

Alabama/Clemson 8:30: Tried to build a case for going with #1 Clemson as the near TD favorite; after all, they've covered 4 of their last 5 in the dog role including winning four straight bowl games -- all as a dog. And then there is QB Watson who has given fits to opposing defenses all season; furthermore, there that formidable defense that stalled out a very potent Oklahoma offense; however Alabama is a whole different animal and they got a chip still on their shoulder from losing last year's semi-final to Ohio State. Worth note that Alabama took on the 5th strongest schedule and went a strong 7-3 ATS whereas Clemson took on the 47th strongest and went a mediocre 5-5 ATS. Alabama's defense has adapted to no-huddle offenses with great depth -- especially on their defensive line. Don't believe Clemson's offensive line can put a dent in it and they can rush the passer and corral the elusive Watson. On the other hand, Alabama's QB Coker gained confidence against Michigan State after Heisman RB Henry was held in check early. Despite Clemson having a ball hawking secondary including a great safety, Alabama's Ridley is the long ball threat that OC Kiffin can put in a position to succeed in play action. Bottom line, Alabama's line on both sides of the ball is better and should control the line of scrimmage and cover the number. Alabama should go to 5-0 ATS vs the ACC.

Penn State/Georgia Noon: Not a fan of bowl teams in transition. Georgia will have the interim HC tag on McClendon until after this game when Alabama's DC Smart takes over. Georgia had trouble running their offense for most of the season under OC Schottenheimer who stepped down. Penn State brings a formidable defense to the field and capable of limiting the pedestrian Bulldogs' attack. On the other hand, I like the change for Penn State. HC Franklin fired his OC and assumes the OC role in which he feels comfortable in. He has an underachieving QB Hackenberg (53%) who needs a monster game to have any chance of getting NFL drafted this year. We'll look for him to rise to the occasion and ride RB Barkley who pounded the rock for 6.4 YPC this season. Scoring should be at a premium today with two pedestrian offenses with stingy defenses. We'll look for the more stable team in Penn State to grind out a close one.

Oklahoma State/Mississippi 8:30: Ole Miss eager to atone for their bowl flop last year against TCU. And there is no question the Rebels are improved from a year ago with wins at Alabama and Mississippi State; however, disturbing losses at Memphis, blown out at Florida and underachieving at home against Arkansas give us hope in Oklahoma State covering here. If you can score points, you have a chance against Ole Miss and the Cowboys can score. Oklahoma State's QB Rudolph (foot) is good to go and he has a strong supporting cast of skill players and a stable O-Line. And the Rebels will not have NFL bound Nkemdiche to harass the Cowboys' ball carriers, which is a big loss. On the other hand, the Ole Miss offense is surely not intimidated by the yielding Cowboys' defense; however, Okie State has a ball hawking secondary in an opportunistic defense which forced 27 turnovers; moreover, they can rush the passer -- averaging 3.17 sacks per game which is 4th in the nation. Rebels' HC Freeze is just 1-3 ATS against the Big 12, and when giving more than 7.5 points this season, he's come up empty at 0-3 ATS. Cowboys the call.

Pittsburgh/Navy 2:30: Navy's triple option is as potent as it has ever been in its history with Keenan Reynolds at the helm; however, Pittsburgh's veteran defensive minded HC Narduzzi has his solid defense well disciplined to play assignment football over the extended time off. We'll look for the Panthers to stall them out. On the other hand, Pittsburgh's offensive skill trio of QB Peterson, RB Ollison and WR Boyd should be too much for the Navy defense to contain. Panthers strong December football at 6-0 ATS and 23-10-1 off SU loss. Pitt the call.

Chargers/Raiders 8:25: If this game were set about four weeks back, Raiders the call; however, this month these teams are going in opposite directions with SD on the rise and Oakland on the decline. The Chargers have stepped up their defense over the last three games -- allowing just 17 to Denver, 10 to KC, and 14 to Miami over that span. That's a significant improvement from earlier in the year when they couldn't stop anybody. On the other hand, the Raiders have shown inconsistency losing five of the last seven to knock them out of the race. Chargers are seeking to avenge the October 25th 37-29 loss. Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, 6-2 ATS in Week 16 and keep in mind that Phillip Rivers is a sweet 33-10 SU in December! On the other hand, the Raiders are showing a pattern of misfortune at 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home. And keep in mind they're 3-7 ATS in Week 16. With the road team in this series at 7-3 ATS and the dog at 12-1 ATS, the Chargers are the call!

Chiefs/Ravens 1:00: I realize the Chiefs are rolling but should get tripped up here. Harbaugh won't let his team quit and despite all the injuries, the next man up philosophy should once again keep it close for a Baltimore cover. Ravens are 15-6 ATS vs teams above .500 and should battle back strong after a rare blowout loss last week. And they're a sweet 8-0 ATS as a non-division dog  of more than 2 points off a double-digit ATS loss. QB Schaub should be back in action and challenge a KC team that's had its share of injuries too. Baltimore 4-0 SU in series and should keep it tight.

49ers/Browns 1:00: Browns coming off a shellacking by Cincinnati but overdue to get back in the win column. Browns get back a few receivers (Benjamin & Gabriel) and newly acquired Pryor can add depth. Manziel gets his last chance to prove he is capable of running the Browns offense and we'll back him here. He has a decent supporting cast with RB Johnson and TE Barnidge. As for SF, they're coming off a huge win at Chicago; however, now have to play at Cleveland may be too much to ask for the banged up 49ers. They're 1-5 ATS off a SU win and 2-5-1 ATS on the road. Don't trust HC Tomsula to keep this team afloat. We'll grab the Browns here to end their losing drought.

Vikings/Cardinals 8:25: Cards are a dangerous team but do allow teams back in game as their 0-3 ATS ledger in their last three home games indicates. Where they do struggle is as a favorite off a double-digit ATS win against an opponent off a SU loss -- a money burning 0-12 ATS! Vikings have demonstrated resiliency off losses at 8-2 ATS. They're a sweet 11-3 ATS in December, 4-0 ATS in Week 14 and 8-2 ATS against a .500 or greater foe. Minnesota has covered five straight road games. We'll look for Zimmer to coordinate a good plan to slow down QB Palmer and company. Card's are thin at RB with Ellington and Johnson on the rack, which should allow Zimmer to dial up some exotic blitz opportunities. And offensively, RB Peterson should get his carries he was crying about last week and help out QB Bridgewater who's been struggling. We'll look for Minnesota to hang around here.

Ravens/Dolphins 1:00: Like the Ravens as a dog. They've been in every game this season and  lost their last 8 games by an average margin of 4 points. Like our chances here. Harbaugh is 5-0 ATS vs the Dolphins. QB Matt Schaub did a respectable job last week at Cleveland. And despite injuries to their receiving corps and running back, the Ravens are penciling in the right mix. OC Trestman is calling the right shots putting the scrappy bunch in position to win. On the other hand, the Dolphins are fading fast and don't have history on their side in December (0-7 ATS) and have lost 6 of their last 7 ATS at home. Baltimore the call.

North Carolina/Clemson 8:00: Clemson surely deserving of their ranking among BCS heavyweights; however, there are flaws to their system and NC is playing well enough now to exploit it. DC Chizik has made a difference in the Tar Heels' defense this year despite the yielding of much yardage. NC is 10th nationally in turnover-margin with a +11 differential. And Clemson, which is -3 differential has put the ball on the carpet or in opposition hands too often for championship caliber football. The Tigers are on an 0-4 ATS slide and showing signs of sloppiness. NC is seeking revenge from last year's 50-35 beat-down and this year bring a more mature and polished group into Clemson. We'll take the points and look for the upset.

Vikings/Falcons 1:00: The Falcons' turnover problem was a big part of their 0-3 skid. Today, we'll Atlanta is in a good spot to redeem itself. Atlanta is 6-1-1 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games and looking to avenge last year's blowout defeat. The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series and Atlanta should make some noise here; after all, QB Ryan will not have to worry about Minnesota's best secondary performer S Harrison Smith (knee). And the Vikings are thin at corners with rookie Trae Waynes still out. Julio Jones is overdue to get back on track and it should come here. I realize RB Freeman being out is a big loss with rookies Coleman and Ward nowhere near his explosiveness; however, we'll look for Ryan to be on his game against the depleted Vikings' secondary; at the same time, the Atlanta defense (#1 vs the run), can create turnover opportunities in the loud Falcons Georgia Dome. Minnesota, off blowout loss to GB, is 2-11 ATS as a .500 or greater team off a double-digit loss during weeks 9 through 12. We'll take value with vengeful Atlanta.

Duke/Wake Forest 12:30: Tough matchup for WF, which can't get it together on the offensive end, which makes it difficult for their respectable defense. They've gone 0-4 ATS in this series and face a bowl eligible Duke team trying to get their mojo back. Duke, after enduring a disastrous final play referee debacle against Miami U on Oct 31st, has spiraled downhill unable to recover; Cutcliffe dismissed players and tough times ensued; however, they showed promise last week with a great come from behind effort at Virginia. We'll look for a follow up good showing against a beatable WF team. Duke is a sweet 9-1 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record. Duke's defense remains solid and we'll look for a more polished offensive performance from the Blue Devils here.

Broncos/Bears 1:00: Two teams heading in different directions: Broncos' football declining as QB Manning benched for mediocre backup Brock Osweiler. And the defense, which was feared throughout the first eight weeks, has given up a generous 56 points over the last two weeks. For Chicago, now that Cutler is back, the offense is producing and Langford has done a brilliant job in for Forte. Defensively, the Bears have held four of their last six foes to 20 points or fewer. The Bears came off a dominating effort at St. Louis last week and that calls for the upset here. Former Broncos HC Fox, now Bears' HC is a sweet 11-1 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss. As for Kubiak: 1-8 ATS as a .500+ team off a SU/ATS loss against an opponent off a SU/ATS win. He's also 1-10 ATS as a road favorite vs an opponent off a double-digit ATS win. Sweet revenge for Fox.

Titans/Saints 1:00: Saints' QB Brees spreading the ball around to multiple receivers including TE Watson. And Colston and Cooks remain big targets that are heating up. Defensively, the Saints were torched last week but DC Ryan should have an easier time with the sputtering Titans' offense that ultimately cost Whisenhunt's job. Titans' DC LeBeau has done a good job with the defense but they remain stressed and on field for long spurts on account of the sputtering offense. Saints are 7-1 ATS after scoring 40+ points and we'll roll with them here.

Florida State/Clemson 3:30: Florida State has beaten Clemson 4 of the last 5 years under Fisher and we'll take the points here.  The Seminoles get back RB Cook (ankle) and QB Golson (back) and that will help significantly fuel their dynamic offense. And remember, last year's back up QB McQuire, who filled in admirably for Golson last week, threw for 304 yards against Clemson filling in for suspended Winston. The Florida State offensive system continues to roll. Moreover, FS has the 14th ranked scoring defense and capable of limiting Watson and company. Florida State has never been a double digit dog in the Fisher era and the Seminoles aren't worthy of it here. Road team 4-1 ATS in this series. Clemson 1-4 ATS in their last 5 November tilts. Florida State the call.

Packers/Broncos 8:30: Undefeated Broncos look intriguing getting points at home with the #1 defense in the NFL; however, after a closer look, Packers the call. Broncos' DC Wade Phillips has never had success against Aaron Rodgers has torched Wade Phillips as a head coach and DC to the tune of 11 TDs and 0 INTs en route to 5-0 including a 45-7 thrashing in 2010 as Phillips' last game as HC of the Cowboys. On the other hand, GB's defense has 23 sacks with a formidable defensive front that can rush the passer without blitzing. Manning, no longer with machine-like precision passing nor a run game (31st in NFL) to aid him. Packers are a sweet 10-2 ATS off a bye and covered last 4 road tilts. Packers the call.

Georgia/Florida 3:30: Gators are 5-2 ATS in this series and I'm staying on them here. Both teams enter this game off a bye-week. Florida sports a 9-2 ATS mark off extended rest while the Bulldogs are a money burning 1-9 ATS following a bye. Georgia's OC Schottenheimer is as predictable as he was in the NFL and it should be evident here. Florida's run defense is 21st nationally and should slow down RB Michel; moreover, the inconsistency at QB for Georgia should be the difference. QB Greyson Lambert, who had a respectable game vs Missouri despite no touchdown passes, struggled in his first two starts against the class of the SEC. We'll look for him to struggle once again in a big game with much on the line. On the other hand, Florida's Treon Harris should rise to the occasion; after all, he did well in his first career start last season against Georgia in leading the 38-20 victory. Gators are 4-1 ATS off a loss and should deliver.

Miami/Tennessee 1:00: Change is good if the results have been sub-par with high expectations and the Dolphins employed that option. Unfortunately, I don't think the interim HC Campbell can exact change in the skidding Dolphins this quick. His new DC Anarumo (defensive backs) won't change a defense that's 32nd in the NFL against the run and struggling to press the QB (1 sack) over a two week span. The Titans' HC Whisenhunt does a nice job putting his QB in a position to be successful and Mariota seems to be on course in doing so. After a rough outing last week, we'll look for Mariota to have more success today. And defensively, Hall of Famer DC LeBeau has already infused life in the Titans' defense (NFL Top 5). We'll look for the Titans' defense to choke out the turnover laden Dolphins, which can't generate a run game (69 YPG). We'll grab the Titans here.

WV/Baylor 12:00: The Bears sport the nation's top offense with QB Seth Russell already throwing 22 TD passes and should be able to frequent the end zone today. It isn't because the WV defense is bad -- actually pretty good -- but the Mounties have turned the ball over 9 times in the last two games alone. Baylor has an aggressive defense and they should be able to put WV in compromising field position. And Baylor has extra incentive from last year's 41-27 October loss which ultimately sealed their fate of making the BCS Playoffs. WV is a mere 2-9 ATS in October and 1-4 ATS off a SU loss. Baylor a sweet 25-6 ATS at home and should deliver.

Seahawks/Bengals 1:00: Bengals are clicking on all cylinders because they're relatively healthy and getting great team contributions across the board. OC Hue Jackson has done a great job with Dalton and company. The offensive line has allowed just two sacks, the running game is productive, and receivers A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, TE Eifert are making plays. And although that Seattle defense has found their mojo, the Seahawks' offense is at the opposite end of the spectrum. With RB Lynch (hamstring) out and an offensive line that has allowed 18 sacks, QB Wilson is in for a rude awakening at a strong venue facing Geno Atkins and company. The Bengals, which are 17-5-1 ATS at Paul Brown Stadium, have produced 56 sacks over that span! Seattle has not been a good October team at 18-39-1 ATS. We'll stay on Cincinnati here.

Duke/Army 12:00: Duke defense is disciplined in playing option football as exhibited against arguably the best option team in the nation -- Georgia Tech. Duke defense allows a solid 3.9 yards per play and it will be difficult for Army's triple-option to dent it. Army has played pretty good football thus far but should wear down over the course of this game against the Blue Devils. Duke is 7-1 ATS against less than .500 opponents and a sweet 17-5 ATS in October. Moreover, they're 4-0 ATS on the road vs a less than .500 team at home. Army is just 3-7  ATS in October and we'll jump on Duke here.

Hawaii/Boise State 10:15: Going to be difficult for Hawaii to go into this dominant venue and cover. Hawaii a mere 1-7 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games. We'll jump on Boise which boasts a much more potent offense and a much stingier defense. Hawaii usually struggles in October at 2-10 ATS.  And with the favorite in this series at 4-1 ATS, we'll side with the much better program -- Boise.

Alabama/Georgia 3:30: 'Tide hasn't been a dog since 2009 when they where getting 5 points in the SEC Playoffs against Florida. They proceeded to smother the Gators 32-13. This season, Alabama has already taken on two Top 25 teams whereas Georgia has not; however, Alabama still has better defensive numbers and that speaks volumes. Georgia has a strong run game behind RB Chubb but a Brian Schottenheimer can be predictable and I do believe the 'Tide will force QB Lambert, who has been sensational but against sketchy defenses, into mistakes. On the other hand, Alabama's offense is productive behind QB Jake Coker and he has solid support in the run game. 'Tide usually rolls in October at 12-4 ATS. Georgia has been stagnant in this spot at 6-13-1 ATS off a SU win and 6-14 ATS at home against a road team .500 or greater. And with the Bulldogs at 0-6-1 ATS in their 3rd straight home game, we'll sit on Alabama here.