Bucs/Packers 3:05: Got this one in early in the week with Packers -3. Line moved to -3' to 4 on news Antonio Brown would be out. Will still stay on the Packers here. Run game working very well with Aaron Jones as they gutted a very good LA Rams' defense last week. If Aaron Jones is able to get cranking today, and I believe he will, Buc's defense won't be able to sit back in zone a majority of the time like they did earlier in the year vs Rodgers. Rodgers and company should make the adjustments on their home turf. TB has been fortunate to avoid frigid temperatures this season but will see them Sunday. Sure, Brady and Gronk won't be affected as much but rest of fair weathered team should stiffen up a bit - similar to the Rams last week - just enough for acclimated Packers to gain a step on them. Defensively, Packers defense much better than what it was October 18th. Preston and Za'Darius Smith are in great form up front and a healthy Kenny Clark adds a more formidable pass rush this time around. From a defensive perspective, Packers should attack the right side where TB is most vulnerable. And with TB's AB out, GB's top corner - Alexander - should lock up on Mike Evans. And Packers' defense will need to adjust to Gronk - who had pretty big game on the 18th. With the addition of Tramon Williams (cut from Baltimore last week), he can add depth to Packers' secondary; after all, he had two stints with the Packers (most recently 2018-19) and knows the system. We'll look for GB to push the right buttons today on their home turf and effectively get to Brady. Packers the call. 

Ohio State/Alabama 8:00: Was all over Ohio State against Clemson and I'm staying on them here. Despite the Covid19 issues, the Buckeyes overwhelmed a really good Clemson team. OSU's underrated defensive line held more than its own against a very good Tigers' offensive line. Sure, Alabama's line is arguably the best but All-American C Landon Dickerson (leg) is a big loss. OSU's front 7 generated a nice pass rush against Clemson and will be challenged to do the same vs the Alabama machine. Question is: Can the Buckeye's defensive backs contain Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, RB Najee Harris and possibly the return of Jaylen Waddle (ankle). Don't think Waddle will play much, limited or at all, but Mac Jones surely plays pitch and catch routinely with receivers throughout 2020. Tonight, they face a pretty good Buckeyes' secondary with Ransom, All-American C Shaun Wade and Sevyn Banks. And OSU is in good hands with FS Josh Proctor in center field. We'll look for them to pick their shots zoning Metchie and Bolden while bracketing DeVonta Smith. As for the Alabama defense, they've been vulnerable to mobile QBs and remember, Ole Miss put 647 yards on this defense. And Florida thrashed their secondary as well. Look for OSU to feed red hot RB Sermon while QB Justin Fields (ribs) will work Alabama's freshmen DBs Moore and Branch with OSU's good receivers led by Chris Olave. Bottom line, OSU capable of trading points with Alabama and will need to win turnover battle and excel on special teams. OSU a perfect 10-0 ATS as dogs of 3 or more points. Buckeyes the call. 

Cowboys/Giants 1:00: Winner here gets to sweat it out later tonight hoping the Eagles pull the upset of Washington. If Washington loses, one of these teams, providing it's not a tie, goes into the playoffs. We'll look for the vengeful Giants to deliver. They gave Dallas all they could handle October 11th in a 37-34 loss. Today, Giants have what it takes to beat Dallas. Former Cowboys' HC and current Giants' OC Garrett now back on the sidelines (Covid19 cleared) should get his revenge. He's got a pretty good run game in heavy sets and Daniel Jones should be prepared. Of course, he's limited in mobility (hamstring) but making inroads from the pocket. Defensively, Giants much better and get back OLB Fackrell who is a difference maker. Cowboys did go on a 3-0 run but wins over Cincinnati, Covid19 decimated SF and Philadelphia are not a ringing endorsement. Over the same time frame, Giants has rough sledding against playoff caliber teams Arizona, Cleveland and Baltimore. Giants are on an 0-7 SU skid to Dallas and should upset them today. 

Rams/Seahawks 4:25: Seahawks clinched a playoff birth with win over Washington last week; however, they remain hungry for their first division title since 2016 and want that all important home playoff game that's eluded them since January 2017. Rams, which clinched a playoff birth with the Cardinals losing yesterday, have given the Seahawks trouble since McVay took over as head coach. McVay controls a 5-2 SU edge over his rival Pete Carroll. But Carroll has straightened a few things out on the defensive end since these teams last played. Of course Carlos Dunlap has settled in to be a defensive line sack force. And a healthy S Jamal Adams (9.5 sacks) keeps Seattle in games with his versatility. Offensively, Seattle will have T Shell ready to go and G Simmons did a nice job filling in for Iupati. Seattle's run game still cooking with Carson and Hyde. And Penny, activated a few weeks ago, adds depth to the backfield that's winning the run game almost weekly. Rams will be without RB Cam Akers (ankle). A concern for McVay is his poor 0-6 ATS record on the road vs an opponent off back to back SU wins. Seattle looking to avenge their November 15th beating and we'll take them!

Browns/Giants 8:20: Giants have been quite a resilient team this year off losses; as a matter of fact, they have not failed to cover following an ATS loss this season. We'll grab the near TD here despite QB Daniel Jones most likely out. His backup - Colt McCoy has been around for awhile and has veteran poise. He did a nice job at Seattle. Giants should get back to their run game with Gallman, Lewis and Morris. Browns' defense gashed on Monday vs Baltimore and they're operating on a short week here. Need talented wide receivers Shepard, Slayton and Tate to step up their game; moreover, TE Engram needs to get involved. Browns operating with a banged up secondary with FS Sendejo out. Browns 1-9 ATS on the road in their last 10 vs the NFC East. Giants still in the hunt for a playoff spot should play hard. They're defense keeps them in the game. Tonight, Giants should elevate their 8-3 ATS mark as a dog this season.

Boise State/San Jose State 4:30: SJS no longer the MWC whipping boy. Fourth year Spartans' HC Brent Brennan has his men playing good football; as a matter of fact, they're one of only three teams to improve their overall offense by 100+ for two years straight; moreover, also improved 60 YPG defensively. And he's got the Spartans in the MWC Championship despite a mediocre, at best, recruiting class. He does, however, have playmakers on both side of the ball including Arkansas transfer QB Nick Starkel who's thrown for 1,453 yards, 13 TD/4 INTs in 6 games. Defensively, they get after the QB with Cade Hall (8 sacks) leading the rush. Sure, Boise State no joke and another year of being a worthy contender for the MWC title; however, Brent Brennan is 6-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS win and we'll roll with the Spartans. 

Boise State/Wyoming 6:00: Boise State feeling good after coming off their successful road trip to Hawaii back on November 21st; however, 21 day lay off won't sit well in the highest elevation (7200 feet above sea level) in the football nation in Laramie. It will be cold, snow and wind gusts about 15 MPH. It fits well with Wyoming's grind it out on the ground game with their big offensive line and solid RB Trey Smith (154 yards last week). Sure, Boise has a great receiver in Shakir but the Wyoming pass rush should be disruptive on QB Fennegan. And Boise has had just one 100+ run game all season. We'll look for the hungry Top 25 Wyoming defense to deliver. Wyoming's underrated HC Bohl's a sweet 6-0 ATS at home off a SU loss vs a .500 or greater opponent. Him and his Cowboys are seeking triple revenge here. Cowboys dangerous off losses at 4-0 ATS and we'll grab the points. 

Eagles/Packers 4:25: Eagles stick around long enough to annoy chalk lovers as evidenced in backdoor covers at Baltimore (Oct 18th) and last week in the last seconds vs Seattle. Philadelphia has also been a thorn in the side of Green Bay. Last year, Jordan Howard was a nightmare to the Green Bay defense in the Eagles 34-27 outright at Lambeau Field. Well guess who's been activated off the practice squad this week? Yes, Jordan Howard is back to join a loaded backfield with Boston Scott and Miles Sanders. Moreover, Wentz favorite target - TE Zach Ertz is back as the Eagles' skill personnel and battered offensive line get a bit more healthy. Furthermore, defensively, Fletcher Cox (neck) and CB Slay good to go. Philadelphia has demonstrated they're a good December team (76-49 SU) and covered both games when given 8+ this season. Packers, however, coming off a blowout of Chicago, are 0-4 ATS off a SU win. And the Green Bay defense has its share of flaws. We'll grab the generous amount of points with an Eagles team still in the hunt to win the NFC East. 

West Virginia/Iowa State 3:30: Big backer of Iowa State and Matt Campbell over the last 4 seasons but will fade them here. Coming off a huge win over Texas, feeling good and in line for Big 12 Championship; however, they're welcoming revenge against a coach (Neal Brown) who sports an 8-1 ATS mark as a road dog with revenge. Brown's Mountaineers got beat up pretty good at home last year 38-14. This season, WV has been in virtually every game (5-2 ATS) with a legitimate Top 10 defense and a good run game behind RB Leddie Brown. And QB Doege doing a decent job at the helm. Iowa State's had some trouble in December football at 1-6 ATS. And WV has a history of delivering vs an opponent off back-to-back wins at 11-0 ATS! Throw in that extra prep week for Neal Brown and we got ourselves a play on the Mounties.

49ers/Rams 4:05: October 18th, the 49ers outdueled the Rams 24-16 in San Francisco. Garoppolo was sharp in that game but he won't play today. Nick Mullins will get the nod and surely won't instill fear in the #1 defense (in terms of yards allowed) in the NFL. Rams ball hawking secondary should keep SF offense quiet. On the other hand, SF's DC Saleh has done a great job vs McVay over the last 3 games. And having CB Richard Sherman back in action will surely help the SF secondary containing Woods and Kupp. Heavy "under" trends on SF including 2-5 O/U as a road dog. Rams are on a 1-6 O/U run and 7-19 O/U as a home favorite. Rams look to work methodically down the field with run game, boot and play action off it. SF has the defense to counter effectively. SF offense not explosive enough to gash this year's Rams' defense. "Under" the call. 

Notre Dame/North Carolina 3:30: Never a good idea to underestimate Mack Brown getting his team prepared for big games. Brown has always been a dangerous dog including last year's 21-20 loss as a 27' point dog to Clemson. This year's team was expected to do great things but has underachieved; however, they're more than equipped with more maturity to keep this competitive against the #2 ranked Irish. Irish coming off a bye but will be without four year starting RG Tommy Kraemer (appendectomy). They're already without C Patterson (foot). Sure, NC defense gives up points but their explosive #4 offense (563.4 YPG) can trade points with any team in the country. QB Howell is as good as any QB in the nation. And keep in mind NC sports a +4 turnover margin to ND's -2 turnover margin. ND offense has made mistakes and the yielding but opportunistic Heels' defense can capitalize. Tar Heels 4-1 ATS as a home dog and a sweet 25-7 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. Mack Brown's boys have been strong off underachieving performances (5-1 ATS off ATS loss) and should deliver here. 

Lions/Panthers 1:00:  Both teams battling injuries and illnesses; however, Carolina poised to deliver here on their home field. Detroit hasn't beaten Carolina since the 90s on this field and with some key offensive personnel out, I don't see it happening here. WR Golladay (hip) is a big-time playmaker for QB Stafford and he'll be out today. Detroit just 1-3 ATS without Golladay. Moreover, rookie RB Swift (concussion) has been a playmaker out of the backfield and on the ground and will be missed. Furthermore, Stafford is battling a throwing hand thumb injury to further hamper offensive production. Panthers have a better defense than Detroit and should play well here. Offensively, sure QB Bridgewater (MCL) should be out but Carolina's HC Rhule will have P.J. Walker prepared. Walker has some very good playmakers surrounding him despite McCaffrey out. D.J. Moore, Samuel, Robbie Anderson and Mike Davis should scorch a poorly coached defensive secondary of Detroit. Panthers overdue for a win and it should come here. They're 9-1-1 ATS at home off SU/ATS loss vs non-division opponent. 

Eagles/Giants 1:00: Giants on a 5-1 ATS tear and should avenge October 22nd one point loss - a game in which they were up 21-10 in the fourth quarter. Both teams are turnover laden but Giants cleaned up their turnover problem last week in win over Washington. We'll look for a carry over effect here in this heated divisional rivalry. Eagles just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite; moreover, the Eagles days of dominating off a bye - when Andy Reid was patrolling the sidelines - (13-1) are over. Under Pederson they're just 1-3. Giants' OC Garrett should know this Eagles' defense well; after all, he's faced it for over a decade. We'll look for the Giants to hang tough here.

Arkansas/Florida 7:00: Arkansas now a perfect 6-0 ATS after delivering 24 unanswered points last week vs Tennessee. Tonight, we're back on the Hogs. They're facing an overjoyed Florida team coming off a a monster 44-28 win over Georgia. Sure, QB Kyle Trask is lighting it up but won't have his go-to receiver TE Kyle Pitts (concussion protocol). Arkansas won't have HC Pittman (Covid 19) but former Missouri HC and current DC Barry Odom is capable of filling in. Arkansas defense leads the nation in forced turnovers (12) and no joke. Offensively, former Gator - Feleipe Franks - doing a nice job running offense. The Hogs play solid ball with limited turnovers and should be able to hang around here. We'll look for Arkansas to improve to 9-0 in the dog role. 

Saints/Bucs 8:20: Thought this total would be set higher considering the trends and personnel. New Orleans has gone 7-0 O/U this season. Bucs are 6-0 O/U as a home favorite. This series has gone 5-1 O/U. The first game was a disappointment for Brady and TB; however, they've found their offensive rhythm since. Brady now connecting with his wealth of riches including Evans, Miller, Jones II, Gronk and Godwin could be available. Moreover, if that's not enough, all time vertical threat Antonio Brown is ready and that's not good news for a New Orleans' secondary that's given up an abundance of explosive plays (7 plays of 48+ yards). And the #1 TB defense looked ordinary Monday night vs the pedestrian Giants' offense, Brees will have his favorite target back - Michael Thomas to add to a solid stable of skill personnel. Both Brees (558) and Brady (559) will be competing for the all time TD mark on prime time TV. Bombs away. Over the call. 

West Virginia/Texas Noon: Texas is coming off OT win over Oklahoma State. It is a game in which the Longhorns finished with a 530--287 yard deficit. Texas has been playing behind virtually all year. Today, a good challenge awaits vs the vengeful Mounties. WV, which won easily over Kansas State last week, lost 42-31 last year in Neal Brown's first season. Don't dismiss Neal Brown in revenge. At Troy, he went 6-0 ATS as a road dog with revenge. He's got a solid QB in Doege, a Top 10 defense across the board, and an overall relatively healthy team. TX, on the other hand, has injuries to key personnel (Ingram), thin in the secondary, and is 14 yards per game less than West Virginia's offense but a much more yielding defense. Texas is 1-10 ATS after scoring 35+ points vs an opponent with revenge. WV the call. 

Steelers/Ravens 1:00: Not sold on the Ravens this year. Their run game remains strong but pass game stagnant at 178 YPG (31st in NFL). And when they needed to step up against the NFL elite, they laid a big egg. Their defense was horrendous vs KC with many fundamental flaws while offensively Lamar Jackson was way out of rhythm; moreover, they allowed Philadelphia to come back and test them down the stretch a few weeks back. Today, they face the #1 defense in the NFL with few flaws. Steelers allowing just 68.8 YPG on the ground and have a ball hawking secondary. Moreover, they've got a defensive line that is athletic and deep. Ravens are well rested but have a disturbing trend. Baltimore is 3-17 ATS as a favorite off a non-division game vs a greater than .500 division opponent. Steelers got swept in this series without Big Ben last year. Now that Roethlisberger is healthy and establishing rhythm with his wealth of weaponry, Steelers should keep it rolling. 

Bucs/Raiders 4:05: Tough spot for the Raiders after huge win at KC back on the 11th. They're entire offensive line sent home last week but should be good to go Sunday pending negative tests. Nevertheless, no practice time for them as newly activated offensive line subbed for them the entire week after Trent Brown tested positive for Covid 19. TB defense, #1 in the NFL in terms of yardage allowed, was on the attack of Aaron Rodgers last week and should make life uncomfortable for Derek Carr on Sunday. Offensively, Bucs established a nice rhythm last week and good to see Gronkowski getting targets now. Bad news for a 27th ranked Raiders' scoring defense which won't have S Jonathon Abram (Covid 19 protocol). Raiders have not had success at home vs the NFC South at 1-7 ATS; moreover, Gruden a money burning 1-10 ATS vs greater than .500 opponent off double-digit ATS win & scored more than 35 points. TB the call. 

Tulane/UCF 2:00: UCF has its share of defensive woes giving up a whopping 518 YPG. Tulane has one of the top 3 run games in the nation pounding out 229 YPG and can work the soft UCF defensive core to keep the explosive #1 offense off the field. Even so, Tulane is soft in coverage but has two menacing defensive ends that can bring heat. Tulane stayed in this game last year for a 31-34 cover as an 8 point dog. HC Fritz is a dangerous revenge coach and 8-0 ATS as a road dog of 17 or more points off back-to-back SU losses. Tulane the call. 

Ravens/Eagles 1:00: To quote Lou Holtz, "You're never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you're never as bad as they say when you lose." Such the case with these two teams today. Ravens coming off a blowout win and feeling really good. Actually, Bengals played horribly and routinely shot themselves in the foot offensively but held their own defensively considering the poor field position left in. Lamar Jackson (knee) took some more practice time off this week and the Ravens, which had 3 of their last 4 wins against lightweights with a combined 3 wins among them, will be overconfident going into Philadelphia. Eagles' HC Pederson is a quality coach in his 5th year, including a Super Bowl ring. Wentz is starting to find some new targets - Fulgham, Ward, Hightower to compliment TE Ertz and RB Sanders. And the offensive line is getting healthier.  Defensively, Eagles need to clean up mistakes in the secondary and believe they will here. Technically, Pederson a perfect 8-0 ATS as a dog vs non-division opponents off a home game. And 7-0 ATS as dogs of more than 4 points after allowing more than 35 points. Eagles the call. 

Pittsburgh/Miami Fla Noon: We won't underestimate Narduzzi as a coach. He's pulled some amazing upsets in his head coaching career. He's currently coming off two straight losses, each by 1 point. He's got another quality defense that can get after the passer with bookends Jones and Weaver. The Panthers' secondary will need to tighten up after allowing too many yards through the air the last few weeks; however, Miami Fla, which does have a very good QB King, but his receivers aren't the quality of NC State's or BC's. Pitt does a good job of stopping the run (52 YPG) and they're 3rd in the nation in sacks and 4th in TFLs. Offensively, QB Pickett (ankle) is questionable and the line is dictating he will not play. Fortunately, Arizona State transfer - Joey Yellen is a capable backup to keep this competitive. Pitt is 10-4 ATS off a SU loss and the road team in this series is 7-3 ATS. Revenge for Pitt from last year's 16-12 defeat. 

Bengals/Ravens 1:00: Bengals highly competitive this season thanks to Joe Burrow. He's the real deal. Burrow is distributing the ball well to his weapons including Higgins and Boyd, who are quickly becoming  go to guys. And A.J. Green has yet to be unleashed. Lots of air yardage today vs a Baltimore pass defense that has weakened substantially. And RB Joe Mixon (shin) should be good to go to add to more yardage on the ground and through the air. Ravens' offense not at the level it was a year ago. Ravens 24th in total yardage as defenses figuring out Lamar and company. Moreover, All Pro Geno Atkins back to wreak havoc between tackles. Ravens 0-8 ATS as division home favorites of more than 8 points. And they're 0-3 ATS at home vs the Bengals. Double revenge motive for Cincy and we'll look for them to stay competitive. 

Vikings/Texans 1:00: Can't trust Houston laying points. Both teams have taken on a pretty tough schedule but I believe Vikings are in a better position to come out of their 0-3 hole. Texans having trouble running the football (31st in the NFL) and can't stop the run defensively (last in the NFL allowing 188.3 YPG). QB Watson forced to go to the air repeatedly and constantly under duress because of missed assignments blocking and no deep threat (Hopkins off to Arizona); as a matter of fact, Watson's longest pass completion this season is 38 yards. Zimmer is a good coach and should have his secondary improve from allowing explosive plays against a non-explosive team. Vikings, on the other hand, have weapons Thielen, Delvin Cook and emerging star rookie Jefferson. Not fond of Houston's DC Weaver who is not getting it done. Vikings 19-4-1 ATS in non-division games when coming off a loss under Zimmer; moreover, 9-2 ATS as a less than .500 dog, and 5-1 ATS after allowing 30+ points. Thrown in they're 4-0 ATS in last 4 vs Houston and we'll jump on Minnesota at this price. 

Baylor/West Virginia 12:00: Baylor and their new coaching staff are excited along with fans on the blowout of KU. But I'm not putting a whole lot of stock into that win considering the Jayhawks lost to lightweight Coastal Carolina the previous week. WV battled a very good Oklahoma State team despite the loss of their starting QB. WV's HC Neal Brown will have his men clean up their game this week. Sloppy play, penalties cost them. That's uncharacteristic of a Neal Brown coached team. We'll look for his offensive line to improve dramatically this week. The Mounties are looking to avenge last year's 17-14 loss (covered +17') at Baylor. Brown likes to run the rock and has a pretty good pair of backs and a decent QB in Doege. Brown is 6-0 as a home dog and we'll look for him to school Baylor's new HC Aranda. 

Lions/Cardinals 4:25: Lions 0-2, injury riddled yet should have WR Kenny Golladay (hamstring) back for QB Stafford. That gives the Cardinals a bit less of a spread to cover for the line moved down a few points on the announcement. Cardinals' addition of Hopkins (219 receiving yards) has created a matchup nightmare for teams and it will get more difficult for the struggling Lions' defense. Kyler Murray is finding his groove and he is nearly unstoppable when the Cardinals are moving the ball. Expect more offensive fireworks today. Defensively, Arizona getting better every week with lots of young talent blending in with seasoned playmakers Patterson and Baker. LB De'Vondre Campbell (free agent rookie) has already paid dividends and top pick Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) can only get better. Cardinals 7-1 ATS in this series. Cardinals the call. 

Rams/Eagles 1:00: Eagles have owned this series but that should change today. Rams looked like the 2018 version last Sunday at home vs Dallas. Their offensive line is back to moving defensive linemen downhill while downhill RB Brown is gobbling up grass and yardage. Speedy draft pick Cam Akers is a good changeup. And when the Rams run game is going, QB Goff is at his best. We'll look for more of the same today. Eagles' banged up on both sides of the line. Brooks and Dillard are on the IR while Lane Johnson (ankle) should return. And T Jason Peters still shaking off the rust after missing 10 preseason days (contract); consequently, Aaron Donald will be breathing down Carson Wentz neck most of the day. On the other side of the ball, Eagles' defensive line has a rash of injuries stemming from last week's loss vs Washington. McVay 9-2 ATS off a SU/ATS win vs an opponent off an away game. Rams and the points the call. 

Cardinals/49ers 4:25: Arizona gave San Francisco a tough time last year in this division series. Kyler Murray completed 72% with a 4 TD and 0 INT. With the addition of DeAndre Hopkins to an already good receiving corps, SF's secondary will have its work cut out for them; moreover, Arizona bolstered their line with draft pick Josh Jones who should immediately help. And defensively, Cardinals got immediate help in the secondary for CB Patterson with Dre Kirkpatrick. And I'm sure DC Vance Joseph is loving versatile LB Isaiah Simmons acquired in the draft. He can cover lots of field and play the run. Defense should be an upgrade for Arizona. SF will still be a force in the NFC West; however, Super Bowl losers just 6-15 ATS in Game 1. We'll put our money on Kingsbury who is 15-7-1 ATS as a dog of 7 or more in college and pro; moreover, 6-0 ATS w/ revenge in the NFL. 

49ers/Chiefs 6:30: 49ers game plan is pretty basic: Offensively - do what they do best and pound the rock behind FB Kyle Juszczyk with frequent play action. Yes, the stage is not too big for QB Jimmy G, and Kittle should have a big game. 49ers rushed for 471 yards in the post-season and KC's stop unit is vulnerable - ranked 26th in the league. With Mostert and company running the rock and eating clock, Mahomes can stay off the field. When he does get on the field, the 49ers do have the #1 pass defense in the NFL allowing just 169 YPG. Simple enough game plan that other teams have employed, but SF has the personnel and the coaching to stay with it and execute throughout 4 quarters. SF the call. 

Clemson/LSU 8:00: Exciting matchup with the undisputed two best teams in the nation. Burrow and his amazing offense coupled with an LSU defense that really came on strong down the stretch; as a matter of fact, few weaknesses in this LSU machine as HC Orgeron was the beneficiary of the most talented team in the nation. Nevertheless, LSU, like any other team, has its weaknesses - albeit very few- that can be exploited. Assuming veteran Clemson DC Venables has his Top 5 Pass Defense in the Nation limiting explosive plays, LSU may have trouble scoring TDs in the Red Zone where LSU struggles a bit; as a matter of fact, inside the 10, LSU's Red Zone Offense ranks 61st in the nation. Clemson doesn't have natural pass rushing edge rushers but bring heat from a variety of positions to be 3rd in the nation in sacks. Venerables loves using hybrid S/OLB Simmons from all angles and he can even cover RB Edwards-Helaire out of the backfield. As for Clemson offensively, QB Lawrence doesn't have to take a backseat to anyone. He's a proven winner with a great supporting cast including Tee Higgins, Ross and arguably the most explosive RB in the nation Etienne. LSU's defense has allowed 11 rushes for 30+ yards this season. Coaching edge to Swinney who is a money making 9-1 SU/ATS as a dog in a Playoff or Bowl! Clemson the call. 

Illinois/California 4:00: Impressed with the Fighting Illini who snuck up on foes of the Big Ten. Illinois turned in a strong season finish with a 6-0 ATS run down the stretch with QB Peters, including outrights over Wisconsin, at Purdue and at Michigan State. He was concussed in the finale loss to NW. He's back for this one and Illinois should deliver. California started strong but injuries curtailed their progress throughout the season. Their offense, ranked in the bottom tier of the NCAA, does not scare anyone. And their defense, which was outstanding last year, regressed a bit this season. Cali is 1-6 ATS in December and 1-6 ATS on a neutral field. With the Illini at 5-0 ATS as a dog, we'll ride Lovie and his boys here. 

Chargers/Chiefs 1:00: What could be Philip Rivers final game for the Chargers, I project him going out strong. He's put some big numbers up vs KC (353 yards on 11/18) but has thrown lots of interceptions (20 in 11 games vs KC). He and his mates do seem to play better on the road, especially RB Ekeler with 8 straight road TDs! KC doesn't have much to play for here and an early lead by the Patriots (vs Miami) could have HC Reid resting starters late in this one; after all, KC is locked in the #3 seed with a win and a Patriots win. With a KC loss and a Texans win, KC would fall to the #4 spot. Nevertheless, a bye is pretty much out of the question for the Patriots most likely won't lose to Miami in Foxborough, especially this late in December. KC's run defense not that great; after all, they've allowed six runner to crack the 100 yard mark this season and give up an average of 130 YPG. We'll look for Melvin Gordon to work on his yardage incentive$ as the season draws to a close. And still like the Chargers' pass defense that can be stingy. With Rivers at 14-4-2 ATS as a division road dog, take the points with the vengeful Chargers.

Cardinals/Seahawks 4:25: Been riding the Seahawks for the past few years but will fade them in this spot. Seahawks usually make things too interesting winning by close margins as a heavy favorite. Seattle, currently the #1 seed in the NFC, do have SF on deck and stacked with key injuries. Seahawks' defense has not been good under Norton Jr. and face a pretty good Arizona offense. Kyler Murray is having a pretty good year and has some weaponry including future HOF WR Fitzgerald. Moreover, RB Drake was a good pickup from Miami. He's done well in his six games with Arizona. Sure, Arizona defense gives up points but do have sack specialist Chandler Jones and S Budda Baker give big play ability to them. And remember, Seattle depth is thin on both sides of the ball. Defensively, still without Clowney (core), S Diggs (ankle) , top run stopper Woods (suspended), and LB Wagner on the mend. Arizona is a sweet 5-1-1 ATS as a road dog and has covered 4 straight in Seattle. Arizona the call. 

Dolphins/Giants 1:00: Offense should be at a discount today in East Rutherford. With a reasonable December forecast in the offing, gunslingers Fitzpatrick and Manning should be airing it out vs vulnerable secondaries. Fitzpatrick will have Parker and Wilson - both cleared - to operate with against a Giants' secondary - now missing CB Jenkins (released) - that's been torched repeatedly. Giants defense ranks in the bottom tier in yards and points allowed. And Eli Manning still has some juice with a healthy Barkley, Golden Tate and newfound weapon Darius Slayton helping him out. Should find plenty of green grass leading to the end zone vs a Dolphins' defense dead last in points allowed. Giants 5-1 O/U after scoring less than 15 points. These teams are a combined 15-5 O/U off a SU loss. "Over" easy. 

49ers/Saints 1:00: 49ers fought a hard battle last week and nearly pulled off a win vs the hottest team in the NFL. San Francisco's defense exhibited its quickness last week doing a pretty good job against the MVP frontrunner - Lamar Jackson. 49ers' defense will have another stern test against a potent New Orleans' offense. I believe the #1 defense in the NFL is up for the challenge. Saints didn't look all that sharp last week vs a weak Atlanta defense. Saints will face a significant upgrade in front four and secondary. Saints miss RB Ingram (Baltimore) ranking 17th in rushing this year. That will be a problem against this hard nosed SF defense. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers have a strong run game with a loaded backfield and Garoppolo has sharpened in recent weeks after TE Kittle got back in the lineup. 49ers a strong road team at 5-1 ATS and I like them here.

Colts/Bucs 1:00: Colts are a respectable 6-2 ATS on the road, 3-1-1 ATS as a road dog, and 5-0 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Reich is a quality coach at figuring out what needs to be done. He put them on a nice roll down the stretch last year and should be able to rebound here; after all, Colts are 7-1 ATS on the road vs the NFC South, 5-0 ATS in this series. Colts actually outgained the Titans last week but 3 turnovers did them in. We'll look for refined play here vs a Bucs team that's 8-20 ATS as home chalk, 2-10 ATS in Week 14 and failed to cover in their last 5 home games. Colts' defense had a winning formula at KC vs the potent Chiefs offense on October 6th. We'll look for Indy to force Winston in mistakes today. And with the emergence of Pascal at WR, Brissett and company should work a TB pass defense that allows 282 YPG. Bucs a dismal 2-13 ATS off back to back away games and should succumb here. 

Wisconsin/OSU 8:00: Hard to stop the Buckeye machine this year with a perfect season and 9-2 ATS in the process. Moreover, they usually stay hungry this time of year with a 4-1 ATS December ledger. They dominated Wisconsin in Columbus back on October 26th taking away Wisconsin's biggest threat - Jonathan Taylor. OSU allows a miniscule 232.6 YPG and surely QB Jack Coan isn't going to dent the ball hawking secondary. OSU usually wins the battle in the trenches and Wisconsin can't beat them there. On the other hand, OSU QB Justin Fields (MCL) is good to go after the scare at Michigan. He's got a crap load of weapons including J.K. Dobbins to do more damage. OSU feeds off blowouts as their 10-2 ATS mark off a SU win of 20+ indicates. OSU the call. 

WF/Syracuse 12:30: Nothing left to play for but pride for Syracuse. An underachiever this year at 4-7 and home for the holidays. On the other hand, WF overachieved this year and going bowling. Morever, Clawson and his boys are out to avenge last year's 41-24 home shellacking. This season, boasts the 17th ranked offense in the nation and should move the ball up and down the swiss cheese Syracuse defense (111th ranked). Offensively, Syracuse has had QB problems all season. Tommy Devito did not live up to expectations; of course, he had big shoes to fill with Dungey (Browns) leaving. WF usually wins against losing teams and should deliver here.   

Bucs/Falcons 1:00: These teams heading into the opposite direction with TB plummeting on an 0-6 ATS slide while the Falcons have reversed course to grab three straight covers including a 2-0 SU/ATS roll in impressive fashion. On comes another NFC South Division rival that is beatable. Falcons' QB Ryan should torch the TB defense that allows an NFL worst 31.3 PPG. On the the other hand, now that the Falcons have found their pass rush, Winston will again be vulnerable. He's thrown 18 INTs this season and fumbled 8X over his last 5 games. Falcons 7-3 ATS after allowing less than 15 points previously. Home team in this series 4-0 ATS while the favorite is 11-5-1 ATS. Falcons the call. 

Texas A&M/Georgia 3:30: Georgia now in the #4 spot after getting by Auburn. And they're likely "eating the cheese" as they relish another shot at the National Championship; however, not so fast as Texas A&M is no joke. They're coming off a blowout of South Carolina and usually handle blowout wins well as their 7-2 ATS mark indicates after a 20+ point win. A&M QB Mond has plenty of weapons at his disposal, a sound offensive line as well. Georgia's defense, as good as it is, can be worn down late as indicated last week after Auburn actually outrushed them. A&M HC Fisher can call plays with the best of them. And A&M's defense highly underrated. The Aggies lost all 3 to Top 10 opponents (Clemson/Alabama/Auburn) yet competive in all. Pretty good value here as A&M looks for their signature win. With Georgia just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 homies, we'll grab the points.

Colorado State/Wyoming 9:30: Wyoming has struggled since they lost their duel threat QB in September. They're offensive line is also banged up after coming off 2 straight losses. Rams, meanwhile, have gone on a 3-1 SU/ATS run. They lost their QB Hill (ACL) but O'Brien has done a nice job as the backup. Rams are coming off a home loss to Air Force; however, AF triple option difficult to prep for in a week. Rams are 10-2 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. And they're 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road tilts. With the road team at 5-1 ATS in this series, we'll grab the TD with the road team. 

Texans/Ravens 1:00: Texans off a big win in London followed by a bye week should result in money today. Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bye weeks under O'Brien; moreover, teams off wins in London followed by a bye are a sweet 6-1 ATS. Texans' secondary held up well in London and now had a chance to get healthy. Corners: Conley, Joseph and Roby are good to go and now Hargreaves (acquired from TB) is joining mix. The Texans had extra time to construct a game plan to contain Lamar Jackson. Baltimore overdue to fall and it should come here. Ravens just 1-6 ATS vs the AFC South and sport a poor 1-10 ATS mark off SU/ATS win vs opponent off a double digit SU/ATS win. Furthermore, Ravens 5-12-2 ATS off a SU win of 14+. And remember that Houston has a playmaker of its own in QB Watson who is quietly have an amazing season too: 70% completions/18 TDs/5 INTs. Texans a dangerous dog here. 

Oklahoma/Baylor 7:30: Oklahoma has had its share of problems against winning Big 12 teams. Last week we cashed in on Iowa State as a road dog and they were a 2 point conversion away from steeling a SU win. Tonight, it won't get any easier for the Sooners. They're defense has worn down over the course of the season as the 48 and 41 points in back to back weeks indicate. They'll have their hands full with QB Brewer and company who have an experienced offensive line that's plowed backs to 188 YPG (5 YPC); morover, they spread the field as well as anyone in the league with a plethora of athletes. On the other hand, Baylor's defense held its own with some pretty good offenses. Sure, this is the best offense they'll face, but we'll give the edge to the home team in revenge mode. Sooners just 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 road games. Baylor hangs tight.

Detroit/Bears 1:00: Lou Holtz once said, "You're never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you're never as bad as they say when you lose."  The Bears were over-hyped in the pre-season coming off a spectacular 2018; this year, the media is ripping them a new ass and that finally brings some value back to Chicago. Trubisky overdue for a quality game and it should come here; after all, Detroit has the 30th ranked pass defense, allowed 400+ yards in 5 of 8 games this season. Bears' RB Montgomery starting to pick up his game. We'll look for Allen Robinson and RB Cohen to turn up their games a few notches here. On the other hand, Chicago still has a pretty good defense. Bears 3-1-1 ATS last 5 at home in this series and should deliver. 

Iowa State/Oklahoma 8:00: Iowa State used to be the whipping boy for Oklahoma before Matt Campbell got there. To think the Sooners were 73-5-2 SU in the history of this series with routine blowouts for years. Enter Matt Campbell and the Cyclones' culture has changed. Campbell is 3-0 ATS the Sooners including the amazing 38-31 outright as a 31 POINT DOG in Norman in 2017! Campbell still is equipped with enough weaponry to be more than competitive tonight. QB Brock Purdy not as flashy as Hurts but every bit as tough a competitor. he's got a great TE to go to in Kolar, solid steady receivers and an emerging freshman RB in Breece Hall. Defensively, Cyclones every bit as solid as Oklahoma. And remember, Cyclones have out-gained every opponent this season except Baylor (-6). Iowa State 7-0 ATS as a dog off a SU/ATS loss and dangerous here. 

Bears/Eagles 1:00: Revenge spot for Chicago, which is stewing about last season's playoff last second FG doink. Bears still haven't corrected the doinks (FG miss in last seconds last week) but do remain very competitive under competent HC Nagy. Bears' QB Trubisky starting to gather confidence, especially since rookie RB Montgomery grinding out yardage. And WR Allen Robinson II continues to shine. Remember, he had a huge day vs Philadelphia last January. And Philadelphia's pass defense (21st in NFL) leaves much to be desired. On the other hand, Chicago's defense still strong under new DC Pagano. Technically, Bears 5-0 ATS vs opponent off SU dog win. And they're 18-4 ATS before Detroit. Eagles' HC Pederson just 1-6 ATS at .500 or greater off non-division game vs opponent off back to back SU losses. Bears get er done.

Georgia/Florida 3:30: Despite double-revenge motive for Florida, I'm staying with Georgia here. Gators, and surely reserve QB Trask, will face the best defense in the SEC today. Bulldogs have allowed 267 YPG or 4.3 Yards Per Play. Georgia takes away the run game and makes it extremely difficult to pass downfield. On the other hand, Georgia's run game has continued to roll. They're pounding out 238 Yards Per Game behind RB Swift. In this series, the team that has won the run game has won the game. Veteran QB Fromm should be the benefactor behind Swift to keep the vulture like Florida pass rush unit at bay. Favorite in this series 4-0 ATS and we'll roll with Georgia.

Bengals/Rams 1:00: Rams got it going last week in a route at Atlanta. Newly acquired Jalen Ramsey made an immediate impact virtually locking down Julio Jones. Today, he'll have an even easier time without A.J. Green (ankle). Now we know why QB Dalton was respectable when Green was tearing up the field since 2011. Bengals now the worst rush team in the NFL with an offensive line that can't get Mixon going this season; moreover, they're also the worst defensive team in terms of total yards and rushing yards. That's a bad combination against a heating up Rams team that's finding its game. McVay should teach his protégé Zac Taylor a serious lesson in London today. McVay 8-2 ATS as a favorite vs less than .500 team off non-division game. 

Tulsa/Cincinnati 3:30: Cincinnati not ready to hang with the likes of Ohio State yet but can surely handle the lightweights of the American Athletic. Tulsa is included in the lightweights after two sub-par season under HC Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane is coming off their 2nd straight loss - 45-17 whitewash vs Navy on their home field. Now, they travel to a pretty strong venue - Nippert Stadium where the Bearcats have covered 4 straight. Bearcats have a solid defense and an offense that can make plays behind QB Ridder who has a dangerous target in WR Medaris. Hurricane defense demoralized vs Navy - allowing 388 yards on the ground. Fickell is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite and we'll roll with him and Cincinnati here. 

Seahawks/Browns 1:00: Coaching mismatch as Carroll is a sweet 11-2 ATS as a .500 or greater team vs an opponent off a SU/ATS loss. Browns, coming off a disastrous MNF outing, are a money burning 1-11 ATS after scoring less than 10 pts. On a short week and thin at corner with Ward (hamstring) and Greedy Williams (hamstring) doubtful.The well rested Seahawks, off a huge Thursday Night win, should have QB Wilson work more magic. He has a solid ground game to work off of too. On the other hand, Mayfield having a tough time with poor line play. Seattle will surely improve on their pass rush and it should come today. Seattle the call. 

Memphis/Temple Noon: Rod Carey doing another bang up job to continue Temple's success. Carey, who had great success at Northern Illinois, came over to Philadelphia this season to start the Owls at 4-1. He has some talent to work with as Temple continues to improve its numbers. They're a Top 20 defense and #10 vs the pass which will be vital in stopping the Memphis ground game and QB Brady White. I believe his men are up for the challenge; so far, they've held their last 2 opponents to 5 of 28 on third down. And offensively, the Owls can pound the rock as RB Davis has accumulated 503 yards rushing behind a veteran offensive line. QB Russo has his limitations but makes plays. Memphis just 1-10 ATS on the road vs opponent off a double-digit SU win. Temple's covered four straight in this series and Rod Carey has always been a dangerous conference home dog of a coach. 

Broncos/Chargers 4:05: Everyone and their brother finding Denver as a major go-against, especially after latest choke at home vs Jacksonville last week. And after losing Chubb (ACL), life in Denver is bleak, at best. Nevertheless, I like the value with the Broncos here. They've been competitive in their last 3 games and still have some solid veteran stars. QB Flacco still has some juice and some decent skill players including RB Lindsay. Defensively, Broncos are disgusted RB Fournette ran all over them last week. Look for defensive minded HC Fangio to figure things out and give Denver a fighting chance here; after all, Chargers have not displayed elite status this season; moreover, the win over lightweight Miami is surely not a declaration of dominance or winning momentum. Los Angeles is just 11-27-1 ATS at home and just 1-5 ATS at home vs losing teams. Denver controls a 12-4 SU record in this series and is a dangerous dog here.  

Patriots/Bills 1:00: Patriots have won 29 of 34 in this series and they're 16-5-1 ATS in Buffalo. With Edelman traveling, Brady (calf) able to practice this week, and a defense that has not given up a single offensive TD this season, New England is primed to deliver again. Sure, Bills are a quality team for I cashed the winning ticket with them in Week 1; however, areas of concern offensively with Josh Allen and surely Belichick will find a way to exploit his and the rest of the Bills' offensive weaknesses. A few points of value here as the Bills are a mere 1-4 ATS at home vs winning road teams. 

Steelers/49ers 4:25: Teams heading in opposite direction as the Steelers remain winless and without their #1 QB while 49ers rolling 2-0 out of the gate. Easy call for the 49ers, right? Not so fast. 49ers a money burning 1-13 ATS in their last 14 favorite rolls; moreover, HC Shannahan 0-7 ATS at home off a non-division game vs an opponent off a SU loss. Furthermore, 49ers are 1-8 ATS at home off scoring more than 22 points. Sure, Garoppolo is continuing his success and everything is running smooth in SF. But Pittsburgh is not an easy out. Steelers' HC Tomlin 11-1 ATS as a road dog vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Steelers' QB Rudolph showed promise last week vs Seattle. And he's got weapons in Smith-Schuster, a solid TE and his old college teammate - speedster James Washington. I do realize Pitt's defense is struggling but they have talent and will figure it out. Surely, newly acquired Fitzpatrick will make an immediate impact. Steelers the call. 

UCF/Pittsburgh 3:30: UCF is rolling coming in to Pittsburgh knowing they're undefeated and with the thought of a 45-14 waxing last year of Pitt in Florida. UCF posting 600+ yards a game with freshman QB Gabriel at helm as everything is going their way. But hold everything. Pittsburgh's HC Narduzzi is one of the great defensive minds in college football and very dangerous with revenge; as a matter of fact, 7-1 ATS in revenge mode vs opponent off SU/ATS win. He's also 2-10-1 O/U off a SU loss. And for all the points UCF puts up, they're 2-7 O/U after scoring 40+. Moreover, they're heavily tilted towards "under" because of their strong defense as well. Pitt should play them tough here in a lower scoring game. Big play on "under" and even tread lightly on Pitt (+11).

Browns/Jets 8:15: Both defenses respectable and should stall out offenses that are searching for game. Former Browns' DC Gregg Williams who is now the Jets' DC is still bitter in not being retained as Browns' HC and not a fan of current Browns' HC Kitchens who released him. We'll look for Williams to dial up successful schemes to limit the Browns' struggling offense. Browns are 1-9 O/U off a double-digit loss at home. On the other side of the ball, Jets' QB Darnold (mono) is out and replacement is former Denver QB Trevor Siemian who never put up big numbers while in Denver. Gase should take a conservative approach with him. "Under" it is.

Cowboys/Redskins 1:00: Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in Washington and should deliver the goods. Prescott has 10 TD passes 0 INTs in his last 5 NFC road games. He surely has many weapons to go to at FedEx Field including Cobb, Cooper, Gallup and RB Elliot not to mention his tight ends. Redskins got worked in the second half last week at Philadelphia. Hard to imagine them sustaining a balanced attack with Case Keenum's limited weaponry with TE Reed out. We'll jump on the Cowboys here. 

Eagles/Saints 4:40: On November 18th, the Eagles had no answer for stopping Brees and company. The Eagles pass rush was non-existent as Brees set quickly and fired missiles compiling 363 yards and 4 TD passes to four different receivers (Kamara, Carr, Williams, Smith). Today, Brees has an additional vertical threat who's back in the fray over the last few games - Ted Ginn Jr. Eagles' secondary playing better but still no match at this location. Eagles' offense is gelling behind Nick Foles. Foles should be able to help manufacture points against a sliding Saints' defense that's allowed 28 and 33 points over their last two games, respectively. Eagles are 22-8 O/U as a traveler. Saints are 21-9-1 O/U in their last 31 home tilts and 6-0 O/U at home in the playoffs. This series had recent high numbers and I expected the number to be set around 53 or 54. I'll take the value here and make this a Top Play with Over 51. 

Clemson/Alabama 8:00: Closely matched teams with NFL caliber talent across the board. I will go with the stability of the Clemson coaching staff and hungry, revenge seeking (last year's 24-6 semi-finals loss) Tigers. Dabo Swinney is a dangerous bowl dog at 7-1 ATS and he's fielding a better team this year. Sure, Bama is loaded with talent but coaching decisions loom large at times. They let Oklahoma hang around and it almost cost them. Oklahoma and QB Murray simply ran out of time. Clemson presents a much tougher challenge defensively despite the absence of Lawrence. Clemson run stop unit allows a meager 2.6 Y.P.C. and presents an unappreciated secondary not getting respect. Clemson's defensive front can bring heat on Tua (ankle still hurting) to force errant throws in the ball hawking Clemson secondary. We'll look for Clemson's veteran DC Venables to dial up the right schemes taking away top Alabama target Jeudy. On the other hand, Alabama has shown breakdowns in their secondary - Oklahoma - that QB Trevor Lawrence can exploit. And keep in mind that Clemson can run the rock. Clemson led the nation in rushing at 7.4 Y.P.C. RB Etienne is a big time playmaker. Moreover, Alabama will not have an answer for WR Hunter Renfrow and rising star Ross. Clemson the call. 

Chargers/Ravens 1:05: Chargers have been a nasty road team at 7-1 SU/ATS and I'm staying on them today. Ravens' electric QB Jackson snuck up on them in the first encounter but the Chargers had time to scheme and prepare for his mobility today. Chargers will continue to choose speed over size in their defensive personnel with six defensive backs to combat the elusiveness of Lamar Jackson. Chargers' defensive backs match well with Baltimore receivers and I like the defensive line presence of Ingram and Bosa to disrupt Jackson in the pocket. On the other side of the ball, Phillip Rivers finally has the supporting cast he needs to make a run in the playoffs. He has the resiliency to overcome early breakdowns, interceptions and sacks to scorch a team late. Sure, the Ravens' defense is awesome but Chargers will clean up their game this time around and deliver. 

Seahawks/Cowboys 8:15: Seahawks have been my big ticket winner for the year; after all, I've ridden them for most of the season and I'm not jumping off now. Seattle is an incredible 25-5-1 ATS in NFL Prime Time games under Pete Carroll. Sure, the defense is spotty against the run and Elliot and company are licking their chops to avenge the earlier season loss. Since then the offensive line has been overhauled and WR Cooper has been added while the defense has stepped up its game; however, Seattle has gotten better as well. Like the Seahawks' run game with Carson as the Seahawks found their identity after the third game of the year and they've been solid since. QB Wilson is a big time QB and he's in good rhythm with Lockett and Baldwin. And with TE Dissley out, we'll look for Vannett to step up his game. Seattle will find a way.   

Kentucky/Penn State 1:00: Kentucky sneaked up on teams early with the power run game but defenses adjusted later in the season forcing QB Wilson to throw more; unfortunately, Wilson didn't scare any secondaries. Penn State's defense well schooled and should limit Snell and company. On the other hand, Penn State's all time leading passer McSorely should continue his big play resume and go out a winner. He's got another great complimentary running back Miles Sanders. Penn State the call. 

Chiefs/Seahawks 8:20: Both teams coming off division losses but I like Seattle at home in this one. The Seahawks, 23-10-1 ATS in December, are prime timers under Pete Carroll at 25-5-1 ATS. Seattle surely has a prime time QB who is at his best when the lights shine brightest. Russell Wilson is having another strong year (3,025 passing yards, 31 TD / 6 INT and, as always, dangerous with his feet). Wilson has WR Baldwin healthy for the first time this season. Him and Lockett should continue to impress. But it's the bruising Seattle run game that should put a major dent in the KC defense to allow Wilson to do his thing. Chris Carson should eclipse 1000 yards for the season tonight vs a KC run stop unit that allows 5 YPC. We'll look for Seattle to run the rock successfully, eat clock and keep the explosive KC offense off the field. Seattle's defense has shown improvement as the season progressed. LB K.J. Wright is back tonight. He'll be limited but surely give his teammates an emotional lift. Chiefs falling off in production at 0-4-1 ATS and vulnerable here. 

Cowboys/Colts 1:00: Big reason for the Cowboys turnaround that hasn't been discussed. Sure, the obvious is their acquisition of WR Cooper and the retooling of their offensive line. And much of their defensive turnaround should be attributed to Coach Kris Richard who's taken a bigger role in the defensive design, coordination and calling. Last time Colts' QB Luck faced Dallas, he had a miserable game. This Cowboys' defense won't make it easy on him again. Offensively, like the Cowboys quality mix of RB Elliot and now vertical threat Cooper. Colts off huge win over Houston last week could lead to mild letdown here. Colts 5-12-2 ATS off SU win. Cowboys the call. 

Cardinals/Falcons 1:00: Falcons have no business laying double digits to anybody. Their defense has lots of holes and offensively can't find a run game to fill injured Freeman's shoes. Cardinals still competitive and do have a decent secondary and a DE in Chandler Jones who can get after the QB. Sure, Arizona's offense is pathetic but still has weaponry in Fitzgerald, and RB David Johnson and respectable rookie QB Rosen. Cardinals should get the run game going against an injury ravaged Falcons' defense that allows 5 YPC. Cardinals are a respectable 3-1-1 ATS on the road and sport a 17-8 December ledger. Arizona the call. 

Rams/Bears 8:20: Rams have demonstrated road toughness and should measure up to the task here. Sure, it's freezing cold in Chicago now but plenty of the Rams' roster has experienced cold temperatures including WR Cooks, QB Goff, DT Donald, CBs Talib and Peters, and more. Bears' defense is outstanding and leads the league in forcing turnovers; however, it was exposed last week at NY. And remember, Rams' defense is right behind tied with Seattle in forcing turnovers and can surely sack the QB. Trubisky (shoulder) is back in the fray and he'll try to avoid drop back vertical routes with the flush pocket extraordinaire - Aaron Donald leading the charge. But DE Fowler can handle Trubisky spilling to him. Trubisky is not yet a prime time QB as demonstrated last season vs Green Bay, this season at GB, and this season against Seattle (2 INTs). Edge to the Rams who are at the elite level with Chicago still nipping at their heels. 

Vikings/Patriots 4:25: The bye week did New England justice as they got healthier and reloaded for a strong December run. NE is one of the great late season teams with a December ledger of 66-48 ATS including 34-20 ATS at home. Gronk is getting healthier , RB Michel is back in the fray, and QB Brady is in rhythm with his receiving corps. Vikings have not had success vs the Patriots (0-3 ATS) or the AFC East in which they've gone a poor 4-15 SU including laying an egg against Buffalo in Week 3. Patriots usually thrive at home in this price range at this time of year and we'll jump on them here.  

Seahawks/Panthers 1:00: Seahawks have been competitive in every road game this season and sport a 17-8-2 ATS mark in their last 27 road games vs teams with winning home records. Seattle is right there in the fight for the NFC Wild Card and Carolina is showing signs of fading despite their perfect home record and overall winning record at 6-4. The Panthers got blown out by Pitt two weeks ago on MNF and then coughed up a late lead against the mediocre Lions. Panthers were outgained in rushing yards in both those games and now face the leading rushing team in the NFL. RBs Carson, Davis and Penny are carrying the load well; moreover, QB Russell Wilson is having another superb season (23 TD/5 INT). I'm concerned with WR Baldwin (groin) who is questionable at this time, but Lockett and Moore are doing a fine job getting open. On the other hand, Seattle's defense needs to force more turnovers and address McCaffrey today. Leading WR Funchess will be out but there are plenty of weapons at the disposal of QB Newton. We'll look for Carroll to have his men well prepared and deliver. Seattle a perfect 11-0 ATS as a conference dog off a SU/ATS win. 

Michigan/OSU Noon: I mentioned before the season started that Michigan had what it took to be a Final Four team; at this time, I still believe that. The Wolves have the #1 defense in the nation vs the pass and in total yards. Sure OSU QB Haskins is putting up big numbers but I'm not sold on him being a big game QB, especially in crunch time. He did help deliver a dramatic come from behind win at Penn State but got an amazing catch and run help from WR Ben Victor. And sure, OSU will see the end zone, their offense (#2 in the nation) is too prolific to stop. But defensively, OSU allows way too many yards; as a matter of fact, the Buckeyes allow nearly 180 more yards per game than Michigan's defense. That will not cut it against the offense Harbaugh has finally spent years building. And he finally landed the QB he wanted in Shea Patterson. Patterson should have a big game against an OSU defense that has sacked the QB only 19 times this season. That's twelve fewer than last year; of course, Nick Bosa's absence hurt them. But bottom line, OSU's defensive problems have resulted in a 1-6 ATS slide for them. I jumped on Michigan early in the week when this line opened; of course it has been bid up to -4' but still worth jumping on. I do realize that OSU is a dog for the first time in 51 games; however, it's well justified here as Harbaugh gets his first victory over OSU with authority!

Buffalo/Bowling Green Noon: Bowling Green feeling pretty good about themselves after back-to-back wins against conference lightweight - Central Michigan and offensive inept Akron. Today, back to reality for them as Leipold's boys run them ragged. The Bulls, coming off an embarrassing defeat to a very good Ohio U team, should have it together today. Buffalo is 5-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Buffalo has serious offensive weaponry with tall/versatile QB Jackson, vertical threat Anthony Johnson, possession receiver Osborn, and hard running RB Patterson. Sure, statistically, BG has a good pass defense; however, that is because teams can easily run on them. BG's run-stop-unit is allowing 6 YPC! We'll look for a heavy dose of RB Patterson to set up a big scoring fest. We'll look for a usually solid Bulls' defense to tighten up and unleash on BG QB Doege. He's pretty good but his offensive line has issues protecting him and Buffalo should get back their defensive mojo here. BG HC Jinks just 2-7 ATS as a conference home dog. Buffalo the call.

Eagles/Saints 4:25: Everybody and their brother on the Saints after 7 straight covers and blowout win over Cincinnati. And yes, Brees is on fire, RB Kamara is a matchup nightmare, and the Saints' run stop unit is menacing. Nevertheless, too many points to an Eagles team coming off a loss. Eagles, 7-3 ATS off a SU loss, beaten by an average of 4.4 PPG in their 5 defeats with none greater than a TD. Pederson 5-0 ATS off a SU loss vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Yes, Eagles' secondary is thin with CB Darby (ACL) out; however, CB Douglas is capable of rising to the occasion and CB Sidney Jones is back in action. Also keep in mind the strength of the Eagles defensive line which can add Bennett and rookie Sweat to the mix. Saints without OT Armstead, could be an attacking point for Philadelphia. And remember, QB Wentz got in a groove last week and should torch a Saints' pass defense that has given up nearly 300 YPG - worse than the Eagles. And with Saints' killer - Golden Tate now in the mix, Eagles should be in this one. Tate, while with Detroit, caught 35 passes for 485 yards against the Saints. Finally, with New Orleans at 0-7 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs a less than .500 non-division opponent, Eagles the way to go here. 

Chargers/Seahawks 4:05: Seahawks on a nice roll as HC Carroll once again steers his team on a run for a playoff birth. Chargers are also doing well but the benefactor of a soft schedule enabling them to beat the sub-par teams. Anthony Lynn now just 3-8 ATS vs winning teams and 1-6 ATS vs opponents off a SU win. Sure, they're coming off a bye but just 3-8 ATS with rest. Without Bosa (foot) wreaking havoc on QBs, we'll look for elusive QB Wilson to keep getting it done, especially now that the run game (3rd in NFL) is cooking. Seattle the call. 

Georgia/Kentucky Noon: Good value with the Bulldogs equipped to deliver another knockout here. Last year, a 41-13 thrashing. Sure, Georgia graduated many of those players but reloaded with another top 3 FBS class. Kentucky does possess the top scoring defense in the nation but this will be their biggest test with a well balanced run game, a veteran QB Fromm and some top flight receivers. On the other hand, Kentucky relies on jump starting their offense with the power ground game led by Snell. Georgia's rock solid defense is wired to stop this team and surely QB Terry Wilson won't pick the ball hawking Bulldogs' secondary apart. Georgia is a sweet 15-0 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs a conference opponent off a SU dog win. Georgia cruises.

Seahawks/Lions 1:00: Matt Patricia not ready for prime time against Super Bowl winning coach Pete Carroll. Carroll's boys coming off a successful trip to London and well rested. Teams coming off that week of rest after the London gig have a high percentage win rate and we'll gladly take the points here. Defensively, the Seahawks were supposed to be in a major overhaul but are getting healthier (K.J. Wright back) and Bobby Wagner is the highest rated LB in production in the NFL after seven weeks. Moreover, Seattle might not generate lots of sacks but are in the top 7 generating pressure on QBs at 31.7% of the time. Offensively, Seattle's RB Chris Carson has 352 rushing yards and should put a dent in the 30th ranked run-stop-unit of Detroit; consequently, QB Wilson, who's having another fine year, should find Lockett and Baldwin for significant gains. Seattle sports a 10-0 ATS mark as a conference dog off SU/ATS win. Seattle the call. 

NC State/Clemson 3:30: NC State has played a light schedule but odds makers over adjusted with the generous amount of points. Clemson has been over valued much of the year as their 2-4 ATS mark illustrates. And the Tigers haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of opponents either - Furman, GA Southern, as well as struggling conference foes G Tech and Wake Forest. And the blowout of WF surely lends value. NC State has covered 6 of the last 8 in this series and won't go into Death Valley intimidated. NC State has an efficient offense run by ACC's top passer Finley (335 YPG). And he's only been sacked twice this year. He's got a good arsenal of weaponry including WR Harmon. Moreover, like the NC State defense which allows just 16.8 PPG. Wolfpack HC Doeren an outstanding 36-6 SU when his team outgains opponent. And throw in that the Wolfpack is 12-0 ATS as a conference dog with rest and we have ourselves a Top Play. 

Rams/Broncos 4:05: Broncos' defense got gashed to the tune of 512 yards last week vs New York. Denver is 30th in league against the run and that doesn't bode well against the league's #1 offense. Rams are in a nice rhythm offensively and can't see the Broncos stopping them here; especially, with Cooks and Kupp now ready for action after being in concussion protocol last week. And defensively, Rams should shape up after a disappointing outing at Seattle last week. Suh and Donald licking their chops against turnover prone Keenum (7 INT). And in October, Rams a sweet 12-1 ATS off a SU win vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss. Vance Joseph a money burning 1-6 ATS as a dog of 3 or more. Rams the call. 

Colorado/USC 10:30: Like the chances of the vengeful Buffaloes. Colorado has been competitive in this series at 3-1-1 ATS yet hasn't beaten them in over a decade. Colorado is a sweet 7-0 ATS on the road with revenge. USC, however, is a poor 2-12 ATS vs conference opponents with revenge off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. USC defense a shell of what it used to be and accurate QB Montez (75% completions with 14 TD/2 INT) can keep the Buffaloes in this one. Colorado sports a solid veteran defense that allows just 18.4 PPG. Not a fan of the inconsistent USC offensive line. We'll look for them to keep QB J.T. Daniels and company at bay. 

Denver/NY 1:00: Tough spot for Denver - coming off heartbreaking MNF loss and having to travel cross country to play a fired up Jets team with heavy hearts and desperate for a win. Jets found out mid week that their DC Kacy Rodgers has serious health issues and that should inspire the Jets' players. Todd Bowles will assume the DC duties and his unit should continue to be disruptive and add to their 10 forced fumbles. Bowles was not happy with his defense after they gave up 503 yards last week to Jacksonville. Denver does have a bruising run game but lack firepower through the air as QB Keenum with only 3 TD passes while throwing 6 INTs. We'll look for his counterpart Darnold to outplay him as he is overdue for a big game since that Week 1 magical day in Detroit. Denver defense not what it used to be in terms of forcing turnovers and getting critical key stops. And Denver sports a very poor 1-8 ATS road mark under HC Joseph. Jets a good October team at 6-0-1 ATS and we'll roll with them here. 

Northwestern/Michigan State Noon: Rough three game skid for Northwestern; however, competitive all season including last week vs Michigan when their offense shut down in the second half. Look for Fitzgerald's boys to step up their game here. NW is 12-5 ATS after accumulating less than 275 years the previous week. And NW has covered 4 straight on the Big Ten road and an amazing 7 straight at East Lansing. I like NW's LBs Fisher and Gallagher. And their defensive line led by Joe Gaziano and Jordan Thompson should be disruptive to the Spartan's offensive line which has struggled all season. Northwestern the call. 

Ravens/Steelers 8:20: This series has been extremely competitive where the dog has taken the money in 5 of the last 6. Tonight, Ravens should deliver again. They've covered 5 of the last 6 against the Steelers and are in a triple revenge mode. I do realize top corner Jimmy Smith (suspended) will be missed; however, Ravens, which sport the #1 defense in terms of total yards allowed, will do some sort of bracketing on Antonio Brown.  Baltimore had an extra prep day and catching Pitt (off MNF win) on a short prep week. And I don't like Tomlin's 0-7 ATS mark off a SU win. I do like Joe Flacco's reemergence as a standout NFL QB. He finally has a skill supporting cast he's comfortable with in Crabtree, Brown and Snead. And RB Alex Collins is a horse near the goal line. The Ravens are capitalizing on Red Zone opportunities this year (100%) and that doesn't bode well against a Steelers' defense in the bottom tier in total defense and 31st in Red Zone defense since the beginning of 2017. Ravens the call. 

Utah/Washington State 6:00: Like getting points with a Washington State team that's been hot at home (7-0 ATS) and in September (7-0 ATS). Cougars have an outstanding QB in Minshew II (71% completions / 11 TD/ 3 INT). He torched the USC defense last week and should find ways in moving the football against Utah's defense. Sure, Utah has the nation's #1 ranked defense; however,  that rank is somewhat misleading with N. Illinois and Weber State on schedule in two of three of their games. The problem with Utah is their offense in which fumbled seven times and two interceptions. Washington State's defense is ball hawking and should be on their game at home. Furthermore, Leach has had Whittingham's number as Washington State sports a 3-0 ATS mark in this series. Cougars deliver.

Bengals/Panthers 1:00: Bengals off a physical battle with Baltimore should be in store for a tough outing here. Panthers are dangerous off a loss (4-0 ATS) and 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or more vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Moreover, Rivera is a sweet 7-0 ATS at home off a SU/ATS loss vs an opponent off a division game. Bengals have some skill players banged up and should suffer first loss here.

Seahawks/Broncos 4:25: Look for the Seahawks to get out of the gate strong this year after a disappointing 2017 season. Seahawks addressed a few key issues over the summer including rebuilding the departed Legion of Boom. Shaq Griffin was a great draft choice as he will start at outside backer. He should do well with underrated man in the middle Bobby Wagner as a mentor. And with six time pro bowl safety Earl Thomas starting today, I feel good about the Seahawks' defense again. And yes, Carroll has some studs on the first line of defense with Clark, Reed, Stephens, Jordan healthy with quality depth brought in from the off-season and through the draft. Someone will emerge! Offensively, the offensive line has had consistency for a change under new Offensive Line Coach - Mike Solari; consequently, one of the best QB's in the NFL Russell Wilson should be firing away. And the exciting RB Chris Carson is back healthy after breaking leg early last season. And let's not forget about the Seahawks' receiving targets led by Doug Baldwin. Seahawks under the radar and I'm looking for them to deliver against Case Keenum and company. Seattle is 5-2 ATS in Denver and I'm taking the points.

Penn State/Pittsburgh 8:00: Narduzzi has stepped up in big games as demonstrated in 2016 knocking off Clemson and last year whipping Miami-Fla. The Panthers are out for revenge from last year's 33-14 loss at Happy Valley.Panthers covered that and are 5-0-1 ATS vs Penn State. Keep in mind the significant losses of Penn State on defense. And the graduation losses were apparent last week in giving up 451 yards to Appalachian State. It won't get easier tonight against a Pittsburgh team that can run the football. And defensive minded Narduzzi finally has a veteran defensive unit that can be molded into those Michigan State teams in which he DC'd a few years back. Pittsburgh the call. 

Iowa State/Iowa 5:00: I like where Iowa State is heading with Matt Campbell. They're coming off a fantastic year in which they went 10-2 ATS including outright wins against TCU and at Oklahoma. The Cyclones have reloaded with a majority of the well disciplined offense that lost a fumble only one time! And QB Kempt, who has explosive target Butler back, completed 66% of his passes with 130 straight completions without an interception. And I like Iowa State's defense which gets to the QB and has a ball hawking secondary. Hawkeyes, however, may be in declining stage with graduation losses to key players on both sides of the ball. Iowa State is hungry and loaded for revenge from last year's 44-41 OT thriller. Iowa State is 8-2 ATS at Kinnick Stadium and I'm rolling with the Cyclones. 

Miami-Fla/LSU 7:30: Sure, LSU has a great history on this field (AT&T Stadium in Arlington), but not buying into Ed Orgeron who's flopped vs quality opposition. He's a meager 5-20 SU vs SEC foes as a head coach. He has another new OC in retread Ensminger. And his DC Aranda is a middle of the road, at best, running a defense. Ensminger has to groom another new starting QB - Joe Burrow - an Ohio State transfer. And it appears to be a wide open pass oriented offense. That spells trouble vs the ball hawking Hurricanes' secondary with S Jaquan Johnson. Offensively, Miami-Fla duel threat QB Rosier equipped with a bucket load of quality athletes including RB Homer, should carve up the LSU defense. LSU has lost 14 returning starters and a host of players with extensive field time. LSU 1-4 vs the ACC and should see more trouble here. 

 Michigan/Notre Dame 7:30: These teams last met on this field in 2014 in the Brady Hoke era. ND crushed them 31-0. Now that Harbaugh has taken over the reigns, this storied rivalry renews Saturday. Like the Wolves here after an underachieving 2017. Harbaugh is loaded on defense with 10 returning starters on a unit that ranked 13th in the nation in scoring defense last year. And Harbaugh has finally found the missing piece that has kept him from making a run to the Final Four. He landed Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson who is equipped with a solid supporting cast. I do realize Michigan won't have #1 receiver Tarik Black (foot), but Peoples-Jones and Oliver Martin can pick up the slack. And remember, Big Blue should have the smash mouth run game back with a solid O-Line and two downhill runners in Higdon (good to go) and Evans. Concerned about top DE Gary though. Nevertheless, Michigan should give ND QB Wimbush fits. He's not the greatest passer and graduation has hit ND on the offense with four off to the NFL including two on the left side of the offensive line. And five senior starters from the defense graduated. Feel good getting a point as the dog in this series is 11-5; moreover, Harbaugh 9-0 SU in non-conference regular season. Wolves ready to make a run this year!

Eagles/Patriots 6:30: Patriots opened at -5' with Gronk (concussion) inevitably waiting to be cleared; however, heavy action came in on the Eagles at some casinos; consequently, line dropped to -4' and should settle there. Bettors are getting caught up in the stats to where the Patriots - as a favorite - are not dominant winners in the Super Bowl with Brady and Belichick; as a matter of fact, they're just 2-4 ATS in the favorite role. Nevertheless, I'm not falling for the bait and going with the greatest QB of all time and his future Hall of Fame coach. Again, you look at the stats and it becomes worrisome if you're a Patriots' backer. Defensively, they're in the bottom tier of the league in giving up yards. A closer look, however, will tell you they're in the top tier in points allowed. Yes, they bend but don't break - tough in the red zone and limit explosive plays. Patriots find ways of taking away your strength, creating mistakes and let the #1 offense do its thing in a near flawless way when needed. Patriots' Brady at his best when the moment is at its greatest. Moment may be too big for Foles, however. We'll look for Patriots' defense to take away the Eagles' strong run game and put the pressure on Foles - similar to what they did late against Bortles - resulting in 0-6 in Jacksonville's last six third down conversions. We'll look for Patriots' machine to keep rolling and cover here. 

Alabama/Clemson 8:45: Have a problem with this line for the Tigers are the #1 seed and getting points. I'll gladly take the Tigers and 3 points with the dangerous bowl dog HC Swinney. Dabo Swinney is a sweet 5-0 ATS when getting points in bowl games. And we know what happened the last two vs Alabama. Clemson can match defensive greatness with arguably the best defensive front in the nation. And QB Kelly Bryant is more accurate and every bit as fleet footed as counterpart Jalen Hurts. Bryant has a strong supporting cast of skill players and lineman to penetrate the Alabama defense that does have its weaknesses in the secondary. We'll look for the Tide to drop to 0-5 ATS in January. Clemson the call. 

Iowa State/Memphis 12:30: Like the toughness Iowa State exhibits. Defensively, they give up yards but limit explosive plays and tighten the bolts in the red zone. They allowed a very respectable 21 PPG (29th in FBS) considering they've faced some of the most explosive offenses in the NCAA, including beating Oklahoma outright in Norman, throttling Texas Tech, beating TCU while holding them to just 7 points. Sure, Memphis sports one the top offenses in the nation but will be without their OC Dickey who is off to TX A&M in the same role; remember, we found out with Missouri on how an offensive coordinator's departure can ruin offensive chemistry. We'll look for Iowa State's efficient offense, with NO FUMBLES on the season, can move the ball with 1000+ yard rusher David Montgomery (probable) against the sieve-like Memphis defense (120th in nation). Iowa State should be able to eat clock and gain yards while keeping QB Riley Ferguson on the sidelines. And Cyclones' QB Kyle Kent is no scrub. He's got NFL prospect Allen Lazard as a great vertical threat. Iowa State the call. 

Stanford/TCU 9:00: Respect TCU's Patterson and his rock solid run stop unit but going with the Cardinal. TCU just 2-6 ATS in bowls and 2-9 ATS on neutral fields. On the other hand, Shaw's bunch is 4-0 ATS vs the Big 12, 6-2 ATS in bowls and 5-1 ATS on neutral fields. I realize the Cardinal struggled early in the year but Stanford got their offense rolling when QB Costello (11/3 TD/INT) took over. He's got a sure handed target in Arcego-Whiteside. And let's not forget about the major offensive fuel behind Stanford's offense - RB Bryce Love (8.3 YPC) ran for record numbers on a sprained ankle late in the year. Love's ankle feels great and surely TCU's run-stop-unit will be sorely tested against a veteran offensive line. TCU's offense is potent too but not a fan of QB Kenny Hill in big games. He's facing a Stanford defense that got better as the season progressed. Stanford sports a +15 turnover margin (#2 in nation) and should make fewer mistakes than TCU tonight. Stanford the call.