Analysis to follow...

SJS/UNLV 3:00: Amazing turnaround for UNLV under first year HC Barry Odom. Rebels have been punchless for over a decade until this year. They can run the football and versatile QB Maiava has gotten better as the season progressed. SJS is having a solid year too. They've practically owned this series but should have a tough time here. UNLV has a pretty good defense with a ball hawking secondary. SJS weakness is their run stop unit (allow 173 YPG). UNLV has a run game that grinds out 188 YPG. We'll look for that to be the deciding factor over 4 quarters today. 

Ohio State/Michigan Noon: Both teams know this is for all the marbles. Ryan Day, especially, aware of the grumblings from boosters, fans, administrators demanding a win after going 0-2 vs that school up north. A few really good OSU coaches were run out of town for losing this game. This season, OSU has the best player on the field - Marvin Harrison Jr. who shows up in big games, as exhibited against the stalwart defense of Penn State. And Egbuka, Stover, and versatile RB Henderson give QB McCord plenty of weaponry behind a very good offensive line. Michigan does have the #1 scoring defense in the nation, but this is undoubtedly the best offense they've faced. Defensively, Buckeyes sport the #2 scoring defense in the nation behind DC Knowles. Knowles acknowledged his errors during this game last season and spent hours tweaking his system for this specific game. Michigan, offensively, has been more one dimensional with only OC Sherrone Moore on the sidelines. His QB McCarthy struggled (52%) last week at Maryland. Not having Harbaugh on the sidelines for support here could be costly in critical moments. Interesting to note that Michigan is 0-15 SU in their final Big Ten game of the season since 2001 when not favored by more than 5 points. On the other hand, OSU a sweet 9-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. Buckeyes the call. 

Penn State/Michigan State 7:30: Penn State very capable of blasting any team in the Big Ten not named Ohio State or Michigan. As for Michigan State, no longer among the elite. Last week, Michigan State squeaked by with a win at Indiana 24-21. Two players the top tier Lions' defense will surely focus on in the secondary are TE Maliq Carr (career game last week) and Foster Jr. Penn State defense just too dominant to allow the 123rd offense in the nation to move the football today. On the other hand, Penn State will rely on their run game with Allen and Singleton to wear the Spartans' demoralized defense down over the course of this game. And even if QB Allar not able to go, versatile QB Primula good enough to get it done. This is the last year these teams will meet of the Land Grant Trophy and Penn State should run away with it.

Iowa/Nebraska Noon: Both offenses are brutal to watch; however, both defenses are top tier. This total is now set at a record low 25.5. When push comes to shove, Iowa usually wins these games. Ferentz is perfectly content on winning ugly. The Hawkeyes will rely on their run game with Leshon Williams carrying most of the load. Nebraska has started three different QBs in 11 games. The Hawkeyes are 7-1 SU in Lincoln. And they're looking to avenge last year's 24-17 loss to Scott Frost's Cornhuskers. Rhule will need another year or two to turn things around in Lincoln. Ferentz is a sweet 26-8 SU in rivalry trophies including 2-1 this year. Iowa the call.  

49ers/Seahawks 8:20: Heavy action on SF as the 49ers have gotten fully loaded with their offensive weaponry and Purdy is back in rhythm. Defensively, Chase Young surely adds another QB sacker on the opposite end of Bosa. And S Hufanga (knee) loss is big, but rookie Ti'Ayir Brown stepped in last week to fill the void well. But don't count the Seahawks out as long as Pete Carroll is steering the ship. Seahawks 16-6 ATS as a greater than .500 team off a division opponent vs a division opponent off back-to-back wins. Seattle may have lost three straight in this series but they're 7-3 ATS at home vs SF. Sure, no Walker III (adductor), but versatile Charbonnet getting better each week. And Geno Smith (arm bruise) is good to go. Lots of weapons in the offense for Seattle and overdue to break loose. SF defense since Week 8 is 27th through the air in pass defense success. With first place in the NFC West at stakes, Carroll should have his Seahawks put up a fight. SF just 2-6 ATS on Thursdays following a SU win. We'll take the home dog on prime-time TV. 

Ole Miss/Mississippi State 7:30: Mississippi State sports a 4-1 ATS mark in this series including last year's win and cover; however, that was under the late Mike Leach. Zach Arnett was named coach and was respectable considering the circumstances. Arnett was fired November 11th after a 51-10 blowout loss to Texas A&M. Greg Knox, the interim coach, was the beneficiary of having QB Will Rogers back in the lineup after a four-game absence with a shoulder injury. The Bulldogs rolled lightweight Southern Miss. Both teams will be fired up for the Egg Bowl trophy but Ole Miss equipped with more talent here. Bulldogs covered just one conference game this season. Kiffin surely wants revenge from last year's narrow loss, and also wants to control the recruits in the state. We'll lay the wood here with the more talented team. 

Packers/Lions 12:30: Lions have taken control of this series to the tune of 4-0 SU/ATS including Week 4 in Green Bay. On that Thursday night, the Lions dominated with 211 yards rushing while the defense sacked QB Love 5 times. Today, the Lions should remain hungry. They narrowly escaped defeat on Sunday vs Chicago. Campbell most assuredly used that game as a wake up call to get his men motivated here. Detroit 5-0 ATS after the Bears and they're 9-1 ATS vs an opponent off SU/ATS win. And the Packers not having Aaron Jones (MCL) nor TE Musgrave (lacerated kidney) won't help offensive production. Lions the call. 

Bowling Green/Western Michigan 7:00: BG is bowl eligible. They're looking to finish the season strong after losing to one of the top teams in the MAC - Toledo. They put up a fight against the Rockets losing 32-31 as a 9'-point dog. WM will not be easy. The Broncos have a potent offense and tough at home; however, defensively yielding, and allow 31.5 PPG (110th). BG does not have a potent offense but takes care of the football and plays solid defense. The Falcons are one of the top teams in the nation forcing turnovers. They're also 8-2 ATS as weekday favorites of less than 8 points. And they've shown strength off losses this season at 3-0 ATS. BG the call. 

Eagles/Chiefs 8:15: I had the Chiefs (+1) in Super Bowl and delivered. Tonight, going with the vengeful road dog. Eagles have had some secondary issues surely Mahomes will attempt to attack the 28th pass defense which has given up 19 TDs this season. Chiefs missing that explosive play element this season. But their defense is playing outstanding (15.9 PPG). If there is an area of KC defense Philadelphia offense can exploit, it's in the run game. Swift has been amazing behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. And surely versatile Hurts is dangerous with his feet and through the air to his two great receivers Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown. Goedert is a significant loss, but Jack Stoll will have to step up and fill the void. Mahomes great in prime time but have to go with the Eagles. Philadelphia a sweet 15-2 ATS on Mondays off a SU/ATS win. Their first role as a dog of the season should be successful. 

Vikings/Broncos 8:20: Broncos flourishing in the dog role with impressive wins over Kansas City and Buffalo. But now they go back as a favorite where they struggle (0-3 ATS). Vikings quietly turning it around themselves. After a 1-4 start, they reeled off 5 straight wins. Minnesota's O'Connell doing an amazing job keeping the Vikings in the hunt with veteran journeyman QB Dobbs. Fortunately, the surrounding cast - from the offensive line, TE Hockenson and WR Addison, to their no-name running game behind Mattison and Chandler. What's more, is the great defensive play behind DC Flores. Like last season, O'Connell finds ways of winning close games and he's flourishing as a dog this season. We'll take the points. 

Seahawks/Rams 4:25: Seahawks were embarrassed on their home field on opening day in the second half. Since then, it left a bad taste in their mouths and they're looking for revenge in Los Angeles today. Rams are well rested and do have Stafford ready. We'll look for Seattle to get the run game going and tighten the bolts defensively. Seattle the call. 

Bears/Lions 1:00: Lions' defense gave up 403 yards and 38 points in their shootout with the Chargers last week. Not to worry. Detroit a sweet 8-0 ATS at home after allowing 35+ including 2-0 ATS in that role this season. Bears will operate with Justin Fields as their starter this week. Fields and company accounted for 200 rushing yards last season at Detroit but got blown out 41-10. Goff hard to stop at Ford Field, even against an improving Chicago secondary. Lions the call. 

Raiders/Dolphins 1:00: Raiders revitalized under new leadership as they blasted the Giants and got by the Jets in Las Vegas. Now they travel to the dominant venue of Hard Rock Stadium where they face the #1 offense in the NFL. Miami has thoroughly whipped all four of their opponents at home. And as attractive as it is to take the points here, it's going to be hard for a mediocre Raiders' defense to stay with the track speed Miami exhibits, including the return of RB Achane (knee) who averaged 12.1 YPC before sitting out the last 4 games. Miami had an extra week of prep off their losing trip to Germany. And surely DC Fazio will dial up the right schematic combination against Raiders' rookie QB O'Connell. Miami the call. 

Washington/Oregon State 7:30: Revenge game for Oregon State. The Beavers lost 24-21 at Husky Stadium last season. Tonight, they have the undefeated Huskies in their dominant confines of Reser Stadium where they are 16-1 SU since 2021. Washington's QB Penix Jr. is having a phenomenal year but face a tenacious defense that gets after the QB (3.5 sacks per game). Washington's run game not the greatest (101st nationally). On the other hand, Beavers a bit more balanced with RB Martinez carrying a lot of the load and it's helping QB Uigalelei turn in a solid season. We'll look for Oregon State to deliver tonight. 

ULL/Troy 3:30: Troy has been an absolute machine with Jon Sumrall running the program. Trojans went 11-2 SU/ATS in Sumrall's first year as HC last season, and his boys are on a mission to win the Sun Belt Title on a current 6-0 SU/ATS tear. They sport a #8 scoring defense in the nation and have a very good QB in Gunnar Watson (21/4 TD/INT). ULL defense allows a generous 29 PPG and on the demise after Billy Napier left to Florida last season. We'll lay the wood with Troy. 

North Carolina/Clemson 3:30: NC still has a shot at the ACC title game. They'll need to sweep the remaining games and hope for a Louisville loss today. North Carolina has their share of defensive breakdowns but stay in games because of their explosive #3 offense led by Drake Maye. The Tar Heels defense doing a better job this year limiting explosive plays. And Mack Brown stays in games; as a matter of fact, 17 of the last 23 regular season losses under him have been one possession games. We'll take the 7 and a hook. 

Utah/Arizona 2:30: Jedd Fisch is doing an amazing job with Arizona. Dramatic improvement defensively from a year ago, and he's got a redshirt freshman QB Fifita who is lighting it up offensively. But I can't discount the king of PAC 12 coaches - Kyle Whittingham - who finds ways of winning, especially off losses. Utah coming off a hard-fought losing battle at Washington. Bryson Barnes has settled in as his QB and Whittingham should do what his team does best: run the football, play great defense, and win the game. Utah has controlled this series for a while and don't see them relinquishing it today. 

Bengals/Ravens 8:15: Both teams coming into this game banged up on short rest. Bengals won't have Higgins. He's a significant loss but QB Burrow can make above average receivers look very good. He still has Boyd, Mixon out of the backfield, and Chase. TE Tanner Hudson seems to be stepping his game up among tight ends on the roster. Baltimore defense without Marlon Humphrey (calf) will help our cause by canceling out more depth. Bengals' defense gave up 17 plays of 20+ yards last week to Houston. DC Anarumo has most assuredly addressed that to the defense. Bengals' edge rushing subs - Sample and #1 draft choice Myles Murphy need to help contain the ever-elusive Lamar Jackson. Sam Hubbard is already out, and Hendrickson (knee) may be limited. Bengals looking to avenge September 17th 27-24 loss. Burrow was still recovering from that calf strain in Week 2. He can run now, and I have confidence in him in a much-needed division revenge game on prime-time TV. Bengals are 12-3 ATS vs a division opponent off a SU home loss. They're also 9-2 ATS on the road vs a division opponent off a home game. Baltimore is a money burning 1-15 ATS as a .500 or greater team off a SU loss vs a greater than .500 division opponent. Take the points with Cincinnati. 

Analysis to follow...

Falcons/Cardinals 4:05: Cardinals welcome back Kyler Murray and RB James Conner. QB Murray not the guy to bet on vs elite teams (1-12 ATS) but he can lead the Cardinals to victory vs the underachieving Falcons. Falcons allowed QB Dobbs - who arrived to Minnesota 5 prior to the game- to beat them. Murray and Conner a solid one-two punch in Arizona's offense. Finally, Marquise Brown can move up the Fantasy Charts. Cardinals' HC Gannon doing a decent job keeping his team competitive while Atlanta's Arthur Smith just finds different ways to lose. Take the home dog here. 

Titans/Bucs 1:00: Titans had a few extra prep days for this after coming off Thursday night (11-2) loss to Pittsburgh. In that game, QB Will Levis showed he has what it takes to be the starting QB. He hung tough and delivered well enough to win that game; consequently, he won the starting job over Tannehill. Meanwhile, his counterpart - Mayfield - turned in a good enough performance to win; however, the TB secondary was lit up like a torch. Bucs' defense allows 7.4 yards per pass - which is second to last (Denver). Like our chances here with Levis running the offense as RB Henry and Spears can assist in softening up the TB defense to allow Hopkins and company to stretch the field. Tennessee has historically done well on extra rest at 7-0-1 ATS, and also control a 10-2 SU mark in this series. Can't side with TB here. Mayfield strong as a dog but as a favorite a money burning 10-22-2 ATS including 1-9 ATS in his last 10 as chalk. Tennessee the call. 

Browns/Ravens 1:00: Baltimore looks like the hottest team in the NFL after their 4-0 run in which they've outscored opponents 130-49. They possess a top ranked defense and an offense that's running hot. However, don't overlook the Browns. They're in a division revenge mode from October 1st 28-3 loss without Watson. Today, Watson is back in the fray off a decent game and more comfortable running the offense. And the Browns possess the top defense in yards allowed per game and 3rd in the league in points allowed per game. Baltimore just 2-10 ATS as a division home favorite of less than 7 points. Take the points. 

Auburn/Arkansas 4:00: Hugh Freeze controls a 7-2 SU/ATS mark as an underdog vs SEC opponents and I like him here. He's developed QB Payton Thorne gradually throughout the year. Thorne has shown dramatic progress over his last few games. Auburn also has established a run game. Arkansas' defense has shown tendencies to allow QBs to settle in (104th QBR). And offensively, Arkansas struggles running the football (3.2 YPC) which will put pressure on QB K.J. Jefferson. Auburn defense allows just 21.7 PPG. The Tigers are looking to avenge last year's 41-27 loss at Auburn. The Tigers control a 6-1 SU mark in this series last 7 years. Auburn the call. 

New Mexico State/Western Kentucky 3:30: Hilltoppers QB Austin Reed can sling it and gets a lot of press; however, over the course of the game with a limited run game (114th nation) and a yielding defense (130th in yards allowed), they've eked out a 5-4 SU record this season. On the other hand, Jerry Kill's Aggies are 7-3 SU and gaining momentum just like they did last year down the stretch on their way to a bowl win. Their 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games, and tough as nails QB Pavia is running their offense to perfection. Like their chances here, especially with their solid ground game and a defense that allows just 20 PPG. NMS the call. 

Michigan/Penn State Noon: Penn State QB Allar looks great against run of the mill teams but crapped himself against Ohio State. Michigan enters this game with the #1 defense in total yards and scoring allowed. They are #2 in the country in holding QBs to their lowest rating. The Lions don't have the receivers who can create great separation and Michigan is very well versed in the secondary with athletic playmakers. Offensively, the Wolverines either have the run game or QB McCarthy wreaking havoc on defenses. Penn State has a great defense, but over the course of this game, Michigan, which has been sensational limiting turnovers and penalties, should run their offense effectively enough to win and cover. Wolverines a sweet 9-1 ATS vs conference opponent off double-digit SU win. Michigan the call. 

Wyoming/UNLV 10:45: Former Missouri HC Barry Odom has done an amazing job in his first year guiding the Rebels to a 7-2 SU/8-1 ATS mark. UNLV offense clicking with QB Jayden Maiava at the helm. And the bread and butter of the offensive production has come from a three-headed monster run game attack with Davis, Lester and Thomas accounting for nearly 200 YPG. Wyoming defense pretty good but on the road they've given up 31+ PPG. And offensively, Cowboys struggle in their pass game (125th). They're facing a pretty good UNLV defense that will yield yardage but tightens in the red zone. Wyoming has owned this series in recent years to the tune of 5-1 ATS, but Rebels no longer getting pushed around under Odom. Rebels are a sweet 9-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS win. UNLV the call. 

Panthers/Bears 8:15: Bears have shown up to play on Prime Time the last few years. Last season, in Week 7, they walked in Foxborough and destroyed the Patriots. And October 5th (Thursday), they punched out a lifeless Washington team in Landover. Tonight, we'll go back on the Bears. Bagent actually has a higher QBR (52.3) than his more high-profile counterpart Bryce Young (29.3 QBR). Bagent is starting to get in rhythm with TE Kmet, and the dangerous DJ Moore. Bears should be able to move the football on the Panthers' defense which is like a MASH unit. Tons of people on the IR and no edge pressure with Brian Burns out. On the flip end, Bears do well stopping the run but need a pass rush to help out their struggling secondary. Bears made a significant upgrade before trade deadline in acquiring Montez Sweat. Bears the call. 

Eastern Michigan/Toledo 7:30: The Eagles won't scare any team on paper. Statistically, they're at the bottom of the NCAA in most offensive categories. And not great defensively; however, they stay in games, hence the 4-1 ATS roll in conference play. Eagles' HC Creighton gets the best out of his limited talent. And EMU has covered 5 of the last 7 in this series. And you can't ignore Creighton's amazing 24-5-2 ATS mark on the road following a loss. And the Eagles are a sweet 10-1 ATS as a conference dog of more than 4 points vs a greater than .500 opponent off a SU win. And throw in EMU's 9-1 ATS mark as a weekday road dog, and we're taking the generous amount of points here. 

Bowling Green/Kent State 7:00: Golden Flashes off a demoralizing loss to their neighbor - Akron. That is simply the Super Bowl for bragging rights in Northeastern Ohio. Consequently, they now have little to play for since there is no bowl or even winning record in the offing. Kent's pedestrian offense (131st of FBS schools) that can't close (1.6 PPG in 4th quarter), should succumb to a pretty good Falcons' defense. Offensively, Falcons far from a juggernaut but do have a decent run game when hitching the wagon to RB Stewart (85 YPG). See this as wearing down the Flashes over the course of the game. BG playing for a bowl game with a win. Falcons should run away with it. 

Ball State/NIU 7:00: Cardinals down but not out. Although losing 5 of their last 6 games, they've covered 3 straight. And their defense is allowing just 19.5 PPG over their last 4 games. In this series, Ball State won 3 of the last 4 meetings. And the last 5 in this series was decided by less than 8 points. Cardinals' offense a concern; after all, they rank in the bottom of the FBS. They've had QB issues but HC Neu has settled on duel threat Kiael Kelly who's more dangerous with legs than arm; fortunately, NIU defense has trouble stopping the run allowing 169 YPG/4.5 YPC. Cardinals will most likely feed Marquez Cooper the rock. Cooper is on his way to his third consecutive 1000+ rush season. Cardinals will look to cover ground and eat clock to limit time with NIU's QB Lombardi and company. NIU 0-5 ATS as a home favorite after allowing 35+. Ball State the call. 

Chargers/Jets 8:15: Chargers' defense shaped up vs the Bears last week but still suspect in areas. Look for the Jets to get the ground game going with Breece Hall. Chargers' pass defense weak - dead last in yards allowed. Zach Wilson hasn't been sharp but limiting mistakes during the Jets 3-0 run. Jets' defense keeping them in games and that should be the script here. Chargers down another receiver (Palmer on IR). Herbert already without Williams (ACL). Jets have one of the better secondaries that the Chargers will face. And Jets have been in every game except at Dallas. Jets more physical than finesse Chargers. Chargers cross country travel should also have a detrimental effect. We'll stay at home with the Jets. 

Bills/Bengals 8:20: Few shine in the bright lights on Prime Time TV more than Joe Burrow who is 5-0 SU in that role with the Bengals. Bengals are heating up once again and, like last week, we'll grab them again. They're 19-5 SU and 19-4-1 ATS vs non-division foes. Now that the offensive line is getting healthier and the defense is rocking under DC Anarumo, we'll stay on them here. 

Giants/Raiders 4:25: Raiders getting a lot of love with HC Mcdaniels out, Garoppolo benched, and Antonio Pierce in as the interim HC.  I'm not buying into it. No quick fix to a lethargic offense with O'Connell getting the nod to start. He didn't fare all that well against the Bears and Chargers - two crappy defenses. And with his RT Munford out, look for DC Wink Martindale to dial up some exotic blitzes to disrupt an already disrupted offense. On the other side of the ball, Raiders won't have LB Deablo to stuff the run game. He along with Maxx Crosby are two of the few players in the box that play hard consistently. Raiders' run-stop-unit allows 141 YPG (30th). Giants get Daniel Jones back and he should get help from the run game today with Barkley. And it's about time that receivers Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson, Hodgins and Hyatt turn it up a few notches. HC Daboll 8-2 ATS off a SU loss. Giants the call. 

Ravens/Seahawks 1:00: Seahawks are as healthy as they've been all season. And acquiring versatile lineman Leonard Williams over the trade deadline was huge. He adds the much-needed depth to shore up the run game and disrupt Lamar Jackson in the pass game. Seattle defense has gotten better every week. And they have a talented well-versed secondary. And Ravens won't have starting RT Moses (out). On the flip side, QB Geno Smith getting comfortable distributing the rock to multiple weapons, including #1 draft pick Smith-Nijigba. And with the O-line getting healthy, Walker III and Charbonet can keep the chains moving. Technically, Seattle a sweet 9-0 ATS as a dog of less than 7 points off SU win vs opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Seattle the call. 

Dolphins/Chiefs 9:30: Each coach took a different approach to travel plans to Frankfurt, Germany. McDaniel and his team left Monday while Reid and his team flew out Thursday. Not a whole lot of stock into it, but Reid is 2-0 in international games. Miami was 1-4 SU playing in London. More importantly, the incumbent champ - KC is stewing over its most recent loss in Denver. They don't take losing well and have most always responded well off losses in the Mahomes era. Sure, they have their work cut out for them against the #1 offense in the NFL and a virtually uncoverable - former Chief - Tyreek Hill. But KC has shown an unusual early season success defensively. They're #2 in scoring defense and have already shut down 3-star receivers in Justin Jefferson (28 yards), Keenan Allen (55 yards) and DJ Moore (41). The Chiefs are yielding vs the run but limit explosive plays and tighten in the red zone. Important stat is that they're #2 scoring defense in the NFL. DC Spagnuolo should dial up the right blend of pressure to limit the Dolphins. On the other hand, hard to stop Mahomes and company two weeks straight. We'll take KC. 

Army/Air Force 2:30: Army really struggling to gain traction this season. The primary reason for their demise is the inexplicable decision to go to a shotgun spread offense. They don't have the personnel with speed, quickness and accuracy at QB to stretch a field and win on one-on-one matchups. And their undersized offensive line won't intimidate the attacking defense of Air Force ranked #3 in the nation in yards allowed and #4 in points allowed. On the other hand, Air Force ground game #1 in the nation -grinding out 300 YPG led by steady QB Zac Larrier. Army's run-stop-unit is allowing a generous 183 YPG. Army has covered four straight in this series but the Falcons are laser focused on this one to bring home the coveted Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. This one is played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. Lay the wood with Air Force. 

Arizona State/Utah 2:00: It might seem like I'm playing with fire here with an ornery Utah team coming off their biggest loss of the season. But the Utes are struggling to generate offense with uncertainty at QB. They've been unable to fill the void of injured Cameron Rising. Meanwhile, Arizona State is quietly building a pretty good program under first year HC Dillingham. The Sun Devils' defense did an amazing job vs Washington and Heisman frontrunner Penix Jr. picking him off twice and shutting down the run game. Sun Devils' QB Bourguet doing a pretty good job. And when RB Skattebo gets 11 or more carries, Sun Devils 4-0-1 ATS. We'll look for Arizona State to keep pounding the rock today. Arizona State the call. 

Notre Dame/Clemson Noon: Not ready to anoint Notre Dame as a major FBS contender; at the same time, not going to write off the Tigers. Notre Dame hasn't played this caliber of a defense since Week 5 vs Ohio State. Tigers are allowing just 4.3 yards per play (8th nationally). And given one or two plays over Clemson's last 3 losses, they could be sitting at 7-1. In those losses, the Tigers had self-inflicted mistakes such as penalties, QB failure on pre-snap read. Remember, Clemson had #4 ranked Florida State on the ropes before Clemson QB Klubnik failed to recognized pre-snap blitz off the edge. Clemson will be looking to avenge last year's 35-14 embarrassing defeat. Tigers need to get back to establishing run game with Shipley to relieve pressure off Klubnik. Lots of attention this week on the demise of Clemson's program while too much praise for ND after blowout win over quarterback deficient Pittsburgh. ND just 2-8 ATS after Pittsburgh. And keep in mind, Clemson's HC Swinney has won 142 games last 12 seasons with 10+ wins each season. That's only second to Alabama's Nick Saban. Take the points at home with Clemson.  

Kansas State/Texas Noon: Questions pop up regarding if Kansas State is a legitimate Big 12 contender; after all, they've had issues on the road. However, they answered with an emphatic "yes" October 14th with a solid win at Texas Tech. The Wildcats then went home and blew out TCU and Houston by a combined score of 82-3! Got to like a team with great defense and can run the football (#5 rush team in nation). Kansas State ranks in the Top 15 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. And they've been solid in special teams for decades. Meanwhile, Texas remains a formidable contender at 7-1 SU with a win at Alabama in its trophy case; however, that with Ewers at QB. Ewers is out with an A/C joint separation in throwing shoulder. Sure, his replacement - redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy looked good against BYU. We'll see if he can hold up against the heat of Kansas State. We'll bet against him. Kansas State eager to snap six game slide in this series and has a legitimate shot. Take the points. 

Boston College/Syracuse 7:30: Teams running hot and cold. BC on a four-game run while Syracuse on a four-game slide. Syracuse HC Babers in a familiar trend with protracted losing streaks. He's dropped 4 or more in 5 of the last 7 years. Sure, 'Cuse had a difficult schedule during their losing run taking on the likes of Clemson, NC, Florida State and Virginia Tech - last 3 on the road; however, they lost by a combined 150-34. BC took Florida State to the wire (2-point loss). BC has a running game that's ramped up with versatile QB Castellanos running the show. And defensively, they've flipped the switch. The first four games of the year, the Eagles allowed over 27 PPG. Over their four-game win streak they allowed under 24 PPG. Syracuse won this game at Chestnut Hill last year; however, worth noting that the Orange are a dismal 0-10 ATS vs less than a .666 opponent with revenge. On the flip side, BC a sweet 17-1 ATS with conference revenge vs an opponent off back-to-back losses. Eagles the call. 

Titans/Steelers 8:15: I was on the Titans (+2) last week at home and delivered as Will Levis lit up Atlanta's secondary. Now that the Steelers have film on what to expect from Levis, I don't believe that Levis' magic will continue at this venue. Steelers' have a better pass rush than Atlanta; consequently, Levis won't have an extra second to wait in the pocket for Hopkins to work a double move on a Steeler's corner, especially with TJ Watt off the edge along with the inside presence of Cam Heyward (probable). Steelers' QB Pickett good to go and it's comforting knowing that Diontae Johnson is settling in as a good alternative to super WR Pickens. And would love for Pittsburgh to utilize RB Warren more. Tennessee has struggled vs the AFC North at 3-13 ATS and has failed to cover three straight to Pittsburgh. The Titans have been suspect off of wins and are just 1-8 ATS off a SU non-conference home win. Steelers pretty strong as a home favorite on TNF. Steelers the call. 

Kent State/Akron 7:30: Both teams struggling bad. Akron's season took a downward plunge when QB DJ Irons went down late with an ACL vs Buffalo September 30th. Replacement QBs Undercuffler and Bullock have not gotten it done. What the Zips can lean on, however, is their veteran offensive line and the run game with RB Lingard (5.1 YPC). He's also an asset out of the backfield as a key check down receiver. WRs George and Gathings are decent targets if Undercuffler can get them the ball. Fortunately, Kent State defense is yielding (bottom tier of NCAA) and have trouble sacking the QB (less than 1 sack per game). Defensively, Akron not bad but gives up explosive plays. Again, fortunately for the Zips, the Flashes have a pedestrian offense at the bare bottom tier FBS competition. This game means everything to Akron. It is for the Wagon Wheel and the Zips have lost to their crosstown enemy four straight times. We'll lean on the veteran players of Akron to utilize the strength of their line and control the line of scrimmage. Kent State is 1-9 ATS off back-to-back SU loss vs an opponent with revenge. Go Zips!

Northern Illinois/CM 7:00: Huskies 0-6 ATS vs conference opponent off SU favorite loss. CM got shocked last week vs lightweight Ball State. But look for Chippewas' to bounce back here. They're in desperation mode in their division and covered 8 of the last 9 in this series. This line has moved sharply to give us good value with the home team. Mcelwain may go with QB Emmanuel to give his lethargic offense a boost at this crucial juncture of the season. Central Michigan the call. 

Raiders/Lions 8:15: Time on our side getting down on the Lions. This line is moving in favor of Detroit (-7) as we sit. Banged up offensive line forced a reshuffling of it and it was evident in their loss last week at Baltimore. Given a week to tighten it up, Detroit's OC Ben Johnson should have their protection slid to Maxx Crosby who is the only serious threat in the pass rush along the defensive front. Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown (illness) not at his best but Goff is a virtual machine in his comfortable confines of Ford Field. He's got a great young TE in LaPorta, speedy RB Gibbs, and Jameson Williams is on the verge of showing why he was the #1 pick for Detroit in the 2022 draft. Raiders' secondary is one of the worst tackling units in the NFL and that's trouble for them in YAC (yards after catch). Offensively, Raiders' struggling to manufacture points (16 points per game) - third worst in the league. Garoppolo is good to go and a solid QB; however, not the most mobile which should allow Hutchinson and company to deliver needed pressure; especially, since Raiders' run game has gone south this year (3 YPC). Raiders' HC McDaniels having trouble, like he did in Denver, taking control of team as whispers of player backlash continues. And he can't be trusted vs an opponent off a SU loss in which McDaniels sports a 2-6 ATS mark. On the other hand, Detroit is a sweet 6-1 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss. And they're 6-0 ATS at home after allowing more than 35 points. Detroit 7-1 ATS as a home favorite on MNF.  Detroit the call. 

Bengals/49ers 4:25: Bengals starting to heat up while SF is cooling off. Bengals off two straight wins and had a week to prep and get healthy. Meanwhile, SF off two straight losses while their QB Purdy clears concussion protocol and preps for a defense that can make good QBs look average. Not having Deebo Samuel also advantage Cincinnati. And LT Trent Williams is still questionable. How good has Cincinnati been in the Joe Burrow era? Think about this: They're 16-3 SU in their last 19 games vs teams above .500. And they're 18-5 SU/18-4-1 ATS in their last 23 non-division games. Yep, I'm on Cincinnati. 

Atlanta/Tennessee 1:00: Atlanta has won 2 of its last 3 games but it hasn't been pretty. Falcons had 6 turnovers the last 2 weeks. Now they enter Nissan Stadium where the Titans are eager to atone for their 0-2 slide. They've had a bye week to sort things out and prep QBs Willis and Levis. Titans a sweet 6-0-1 ATS following a bye week. They're also 8-1 ATS off back-to-back SU losses vs an opponent over .400. Titans should get it done in this spot. 

Texans/Panthers 1:00: Texans playing solid football. C.J. Stroud doing a great job taking care of the football with great pocket awareness. OC Slowik has the offense moving, they just need to finish more. Carolina could be the elixir; after all, their defense is 31st in points allowed with 31 PPG. Defensively, Texans are a defense that's yielding but limit explosive plays and tighten in the red zone (8th in league in points allowed). Don't trust Carolina play calling now that Reich decided suddenly to turn over those duties to his OC. Both teams had a bye week to prepare, and I like Houston's chances here. 

Kentucky/Tennessee 7:00: Tennessee was within grasp of knocking off Alabama last week; as a matter of fact, prior to that game, Vol's HC Heupel was 22-0 with a lead at halftime. Tonight, look for Tennessee to bounce back strong. Vol's are 9-1 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games. They've covered at Lexington five straight times. Kentucky is coming off back-to-back losses after a strong start. They're off a bye week but just 1-6 ATS with rest. Kentucky defense has struggled against fast tempo offenses. Defensively, they're not deep enough up front and have been shredded in the secondary to the tune of 68% completions. Look for Tennessee QB Milton to get back on track. Kentucky offense has a run game but QB Leary not getting it done. They're facing a very good Tennessee defense that's well rounded across the board. Tennessee the call. 

Arkansas State/ULM 5:00: This should be the year that the UL Monroe finally defeats the Red Wolves. ULL has lost 10 times SU/ATS to Arkansas State. The Warhawks lost their last two games but covered in strong efforts. Bowden has them playing hard covering 3 of their last 4 games. On the other hand, Arkansas State dropped two straight in sluggish outings. Defense has been problematic for Butch Jones' bunch. Edge to ULM today to finally break the streak. 

Iowa State/Baylor 3:30: Iowa State offense finally starting to get it together. They're coming off back-to-back wins over TCU and Cincinnati. They've had a week of rest and looking for double revenge from two close losses in 2021-22. Baylor's defense has not been good. They've allowed too many explosive plays and have trouble stopping the run (199 YPG). They allow a generous 30 PPG. Offensively, a mediocre offense. Iowa State has a great DC in Jon Heacock. The Cyclones have a ball hawking secondary and are tough to score on in the red zone. Cyclones the call. 

West Virginia/Central Florida Noon: Both teams struggling. WV dropped two straight while UCF is on an 0-4 SU slide. UCF can run the ball and have a veteran QB in Plumlee; however, defensively, very yielding vs the run (allow 196.3 YPG). WV has a solid running game (191.4 YPG) and an offensive line that protects their QB Garrett Greene - allowing just 1.1 sacks per game. Greene won't dazzle you with numbers but is a good field general possessing versatility on the ground and through the air. West Virginia defense leaves much to be desired. They make plays early but need to close out games (allowing 10.3 PPG in 4th quarter). We'll look for WV to keep it tight. Neal Brown a sweet 14-3 ATS in games when coming off a loss of 14 or more points. 

Bucs/Bills 8:15: Bills dropped three straight ATS but should bounce back here; after all, they're a blistering 33-10 ATS off three ATS losses. McDermott usually eats up and spits out these teams. He's 7-2 ATS vs an opponent with a lower win/loss % off a SU/ATS loss. Buccaneers have been a 1-8 ATS flop on Thursdays against greater than .500 teams. Both teams banged up. Bills do get a few healthy bodies back for this game, including key defensive lineman Ed Oliver (toe) to help shore up a leaky run stop unit. Fortunately, the Bucs' run game has not been strong (78 YPG). TB won't have their starting LG Feiler tonight. And Mayfield (knee), who started the season hot with wins over Minnesota and Chicago, has struggled in 3 of the last 4 losses. We'll look for this spot to get the Bills back on track. 

NMS/LT 7:00: Two teams going in different directions. LT on a 1-4 SU slide; meanwhile, the Aggies have won 4 of the last 5 as Jerry Kill continues his great history of turning around losing teams. Aggies have a good leader on offense in Pavia. He's tough, mobile and increased his pass % from 53% to 62% from a year ago. LT defense does play the pass well; however, that's because they can't stop the run - allowing nearly 200 YPG and 5 YPC (111th nationally). Offensively, the o-line has its share of trouble protecting the QB and give up too many TFLs (101st). NMS 10-2 ATS as a road dog of less than 21 points off a double-digit SU win. NMS the call. 

49ers/Vikings 8:15: Vikings competitive but on the losing side for all but two games, including last week's win at Chicago. They now have to face an ornery 49ers team that's stewing over an outright loss at Cleveland last week. 49ers have been consistently good in this role on MNF; as a matter of fact, SF a sweet 12-1 ATS on MNF off a double-digit ATS loss. They're 6-0 ATS as a traveler on MNF. And they're a perfect 11-0 ATS off a SU road favorite loss vs an opponent off a SU win. SF is one of the best MNF road favorites at 17-6 ATS. On the other hand, Minnesota is a brutal 0-8 ATS as a MNF dog. What makes the Vikings unappealing tonight is their lack of run game. Minnesota has not adequately filled the void for the loss of Dalvin Cook (Jets). The Vikings are averaging a paltry 75 YPG on the ground (30th in the league). SF defense can make one dimensional teams look miserable. 49ers' top tier defense is #1 in anti QBR at 65.3. Cousins could be in for a long night, and not having RB Ezra Cleveland (RG) won't help matters. SF should have RB McCaffery tonight to add to QB Purdy's already potent arsenal. And although Deebo is out, SF has enough talent to get it done here. 

Chargers/Chiefs 4:25: Chargers have been very competitive against their division rival. Staley has gone 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS vs Kansas City. Staley at his best as a dog off a SU loss at 5-0 ATS. Chiefs are coming off an extended rest after downing division lightweight Denver at home on the 12th. Chiefs not good in the role of a favorite of less than 9 points in the second of back-to-back home games. And as a division home favorite of less than 7 points vs a team less than .500, KC is a money burning 1-10 ATS. Chargers' Herbert always dangerous, especially off a bad game. He should be more in rhythm with his receivers today. Chargers the call.

Browns/Colts 1:00: Browns feeling really good after upsetting class of NFC San Francisco; moreover, Deshaun Watson is most likely to play today. The excitement ends there. Watson has played one decent game this season, against an inept Tennessee offense. His QBR is an underwhelming 46.7. And the Browns have been consistently inconsistent by alternating losses and wins over their last 10 games dating back to last December. Browns' backers should be concerned with the availability of three key players: RB Hunt (thigh), LB Takitaki (out), and arguably their best cornerback - Newsome (hamstring). Colts are a dangerous team here. They have lots of speed at LB and in the secondary along with a formidable defensive front led by Buckner. Offensively, they're in for a big challenge. Browns have a legitimate #1 defense; however, they sell out repeatedly and we won't discount Gardner Minshew despite his 3 INT game last week. He's a smart veteran QB who has some very good skill players and good offensive line. Running game with Jonathan Taylor overdue to get untracked. And we won't overlook the fact that the Colts are an amazing 8-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss vs an opponent off a SU win. Colts the call. 

Buffalo/New England 1:00: Bills not happy about squeaking out a narrow win over hapless Giants last week. Look for a more focused Bills team under no nonsense HC McDermott. Patriots are getting back people in decimated secondary, but they haven't played together virtually all season and area of responsibility issues can arise, especially against a formidable offense with the big play potential of Buffalo. Patriots miss Judon (IR) as that rusher they can count on. Offensively, the Patriots' pedestrian unit has been outscored 93-20 in their three-game slide. Bills' defense allows the 7th fewest pass yards in the league. Mac Jones not having a good year and his receivers come up short in crucial situations.  Buffalo is a sweet 33-10 ATS when coming off three ATS losses. We'll lay the points with Buffalo. 

Clemson/Miami Florida 8:00: Both teams coming off a bye week; however, Miami Florida has a two-game losing streak while Clemson is on a two-game winning run. 'Canes need some cleaning up; after all, they've killed themselves with fumbles (109th nationally), interceptions (Van Dyke threw 5 last 2 games), penalties (128th nationally), and coaching errors (failure to take a knee vs GT). Meanwhile, Tigers' HC Swinney has QB Klubnik progressing well, good running game behind Shipley (450 rush yards) and a defense that ranks 4th in points allowed. 'Canes have not beaten Clemson since 2010. We'll look for Swinney to get his 166th win tonight with a cover. 

Duke/Fla State 7:30: Duke HC Mike Elko has certainly turned this program into a legitimate contender in the ACC. They laid a beat down on Clemson (My Top Play) Week 1 and followed up with solid wins. In their only defeat, lost in the last minute to Notre Dame. Duke has a solid defense with a well-coached secondary. Offensively, I, like the rest of the Duke bettor universe, hoping that QB Riley Leonard (ankle sprain) is ready. He's had about 20 days to heal and prepare. Although, Belin IV stepped in to do enough to secure a win vs NC State last week. Duke has a veteran offensive line that's doing a sensational job opening holes for the running backs and protecting the QBs. We're taking the points. 

Ole Miss/Auburn 7:00: Auburn on an 0-3 SU slide including last week's 48-18 demolition in Baton Rouge. Don't count the Tigers out. Hugh Freeze is a sweet 6-2 SU / 7-1 ATS as an SEC dog of less than 7 points. The Tigers have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series. And although Ole Miss looks like the clearcut favorite to thrash the offensively challenged Tigers, they have their weaknesses. Rebels' secondary has been torched repeatedly this year (261.5 YPG -112th nationally) and it may be what the doctor ordered for the struggling QBs of Auburn. Fortunately, the Tigers have a ground game (192 YPG) and a respectable defense that is stewing over last week's no show. Ole Miss a money burning 4-24-2 ATS as a road favorite of less than 16 points. Auburn the call. 

Tennessee/Alabama 3:30: Alabama has built a powerhouse under Saban, and although a Top 10 team, this team is down a notch from previous years. Their main concern is inconsistent play from their QB Milroe. He completed under 50% of his passes last week against a middle of the road secondary (Arkansas). He is more dangerous with his feet than through the air. And Alabama's QBs have collectively been sacked 4.4 times per game (129th nationally). Today, they take on a Top 20 defense that gets after the QB (4th nationally in sacks per game). Defense is where the Vol's have shown most of their improvement from previous seasons. And Tennessee still has a solid offense that can run the football (231 YPG - 6th nationally). Uber potential QB Joe Milton hasn't matured but he's got a great mentor in HC Heupel who puts him in winning situations. Heupel is leading Tennessee in the right direction and gaining yearly in the recruiting wars. Sure, Tennessee is playing into revenge (52-49 LY in Knoxville) but very able to hang today. 

Penn State/OSU Noon: I never like going against OSU in big games for their pool of talent and coaching has been outstanding for decades, not to mention they get up for big games; therefore, a money line bet on Penn State I will not go with; after all, Penn State HC Franklin is 1-8 SU vs the Buckeyes, including six straight losses. He's never beaten OSU in Columbus. The good news, however, Penn State has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series including three straight in Columbus. Franklin has arguably assembled his best team in his tenure. Although the Lions have played a relatively light schedule, their defense has been lights out, ranking in the Top 5 in virtually every statistical category. Offensively, their 5* recruit - Sophomore Drew Allar is already on the NFL radar. He sports a 65% completion, 12 TD/0 INT. OSU defense is #3 in the nation in scoring allowed. Their best qualities include limiting explosive plays and tightening immensely in the red zone. Penn State, however, can finish. Their well-balanced offense scores 44 PPG (6th nationally). Allar has the support of a potent ground game, really good skill weapons and a very good offensive line (0.7 sacks per game allowed). OSU defense ranks in the bottom tier in the nation in sacks, fumble recoveries and interceptions. Technically, Penn State a sweet 16-0-1 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins vs conference opponent. And they're 5-1 ATS as a road dog of less than 6 points with revenge. We'll take the points.

Jaguars/Saints 8:15: This line flipped from Jaguars (-1) to (+1). Bettors concern about Trevor Lawrence (knee) who remains a GTD at this stage. Good sign for Jaguars' backers is that he practiced light yesterday and he's a tough guy. His supporting cast is solid. Ridley has been amazing, Etienne is rock solid as the ace back, and Kirk has been a great second option. And backup QB Beathard is a seasoned vet who can take over if needed. Jaguars' defense playing well. As for New Orleans, offense inability to close in the red zone is a problem. And their offensive line is banged up to make matters worse. Defensively, secondary playmaker Mathieu (foot) is hobbling and All-Pro LB Davis (knee) may not go. Saints 0-7 ATS vs non-division opponents on Thursday Night Football. We'll ride the winning momentum of the Jags here. 

New Mexico State/UTEP 9:00: Double revenge game for the Aggies and they're equipped to get it done. Aggies are led by QB Diego Pavia who improved tremendously from a year ago. Last year vs UTEP, Pavia went just 7 of 20 for 100 yards through the air. And his backup - Frakes - threw a costly interception that allowed UTEP to pull away. This season, Pavia has developed into a dangerous duel threat. He's got good support on the line and in skill positions. Aggies are averaging a healthy 7.7 yards per play offensively - 5th in nation. Miners struggle to stop the run (allow 177 YPG) which should open the door for the Aggies to gain traction tonight. UTEP offensively, went with Cade McConnell last week as the starter. McConnell was 4th string going into camp, but injuries enabled him to climb ranks quickly. He was sharp last week vs a soft FIU defense. Aggies' defense shouldn't allow him to gain confidence tonight. Technically, UTEP a disturbing 0-8 ATS vs an opponent with revenge and 0-7 ATS as a conference home dog of less than 23 points vs greater than .500 foe. NMS the call. 

Western Kentucky/Jacksonville State 7:30: Pretty good matchup for the Gamecocks here. Run dominant "Rich Rod" offense couldn't get the ball moving against a tough Liberty team; consequently, Liberty covered easily (my top play). However, Western Kentucky has their weaknesses in the run stop unit allowing a generous 194 YPG on 4.6 YPC - bottom tier of FBS teams. On the flip side, WKY does have a QB Austin Reed and a dangerous receiver in Corley. The WKY run game won't strike fear in teams at 103 YPG and Gamecocks are sound against the run (allow 3 YPC). JSU is a Top 10 team pressuring QBs. Look for well-disciplined JSU defense to scheme well to limit explosive plays tonight. Take the points. 

Cowboys/Chargers 8:15: SoFi Stadium clearly not an intimidating venue for opposing teams; as a matter of fact, Cowboys, like other popular franchises, have traveling fans who will fill lots of seats. Cowboys are coming off a battering at Levi's Stadium. That was expected. Prescott and company not ready for the NFC elite at full strength. Tonight, Prescott will have larger windows to throw through vs a Chargers' secondary ranked dead last in the league vs the pass. Chargers bring a heavy rush but yield explosive plays. CeeDee Lamb should be targeted heavily tonight. On the other hand, Cowboys' defense does have injury concerns but 2nd tier personnel is schooled reasonably well under DC Quinn. And I won't put a lot of stock into revenge for former Cowboys' QB and OC who McCarthy let go this year. Each know each other's tendencies so it's a wash. Well rested Chargers had a chance to get some guys healthy, but Herbert still has broken middle finger on non-throwing hand. No matter what anyone says, that will make very short yardage (QB sneak) opportunities under center very challenging with the exchange. Inevitably that scenario will come into play and be difficult. Interesting note that Prescott has never lost back-to-back road games. Cowboys are 10-1 ATS off a loss in their last 11 in that role. Dallas the call. 

Giants/Bills 8:20: Waited for this line to creep up to 15' and we'll take those points. Bills off disheartening loss in London. In that game, they lost three key defensive players including All-Pro LB Milano. Giants' offense pathetic with offensive line injuries which create another reshuffling. And Daniel Jones (neck) will not play. Ball in the hands of QB Tyrod Taylor who has been around the league for years. It will make Buffalo DC difficult to prepare for. Taylor does have weapons in Hyatt (rookie), Robinson, Slayton and potentially RB Barkley (ankle) who need to step up. You're never as good or bad as people think you are in this league. We'll take the points

Panthers/Dolphins 1:00: Dolphins, even with the injuries (Achane), just too explosive offensively for Carolina to keep up with in Miami. Carolina defense has played decent but eventually succumb on account of a lack of offense. Defensively, a good time of the year for well-respected DC Vic Fangio to get his troops on the same page before November. Dolphins the call. 

Colts/Jaguars 1:00: Colts in good hands with Minshew at the controls. And now that Jonathon Taylor got his feet wet last week, he'll chime in with overachieving Moss to fuel that run game. Jaguars are a team to reckon with but could still be in a London fog after back-to-back games in the United Kingdom. Colts seeking revenge from opening day defeat at home. Today, they're much more equipped to get even. Colts' defense getting healthy as LBs Shaq Leanard and tackling machine Franklin on the field at the same time. Jacksonville's HC Pederson a money burning 1-8 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off a SU dog win. And the Jaguars are a brutal 6-20 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins vs division opponent. Jaguars do their best work as a dog. As a favorite: 4-8 SU/3-9 ATS last 12 as chalk. Colts the call. 

Commanders/Falcons 1:00: Falcons protecting their home turf and should be able to piece together back-to-back wins here. Ridder had a respectable game vs a pretty good defense (Houston) last week. He's got a run game with Robinson and Allgeier who should attack a Washington run-stop-unit that's allowing nearly 5 YPC. Ridder has the weapons at his disposal: London, TE Pitts, newly acquired Van Jefferson, and TE Jonnu Smith who is finally producing like he did years ago in Tennessee. Washington secondary is allowing a generous 12 yards per completion - worst in the NFL. Offensively, Washington has been on the verge of making noise but sacks, fumbles and interceptions get in the way. Falcons' defense showing promise this year. Falcons the call. 

Ravens/Titans 9:30: Ravens still have a bad taste in their mouths from their only London experience back in 2017 - a 44-7 waxing to Jacksonville. Baltimore claims to be more ready for today, but not so sure. They're coming off a bad performance last week at Pittsburgh. Turnovers, dropped passes (7 last week), sacks all hampering production. Beckham Jr. can no longer create separation from defensive backs. And 6 lost fumbles. That kind of production, or lack thereof, can't be cleaned up in a few days. They're facing a hungry Titans' team in a must win situation to stay competitive in their division. Hopkins is coming off a monster game and proving to be the go-to weapon Tannehill needs to compliment RB Henry and, better yet, emerging star Spears (4.9 YPC). Baltimore has historically struggled in October in these roles: 1-8 ATS off a division game vs less than .500 foe off a SU loss. And 2-14 ATS as a favorite vs less than .500 opponent off a SU loss. Tennessee the call. 

Oregon/Washington 3:30: Two PAC 12 heavyweights but will give the edge to the favorite on their loud home field (Husky Stadium). Bo Nix is impressive but jury still out if he can step up his game on the road in a big conference game. Huskies' HC Deboer is a winner and he's had an extra week to prep. Huskies 7-1 ATS at home vs an opponent with rest. Former Georgia Bulldog DC now HC Lanning has Oregon's defense playing at a high level; however, QB Penix Jr. has shredded most secondaries over the last few years and not going to stop here. Washington the call. 

Texas A&M/Tennessee 3:30: Two SEC heavyweights clash but scheduling advantage to Tennessee. Both teams equipped with productive offenses and aggressive defenses that can get after the QB. We'll give the edge to Joe Milton and company. Tennessee is well rested after their 21-point burial of South Carolina back on 9/30. They've had this past week to rest and heal. Meanwhile, Aggies coming off a bruising battle in a loss to Alabama. HC Fisher now sports a money burning 2-10 SU/2-9-1 ATS mark as a dog of less than 5 points. And the Aggies are a dismal 1-11 ATS vs an opponent with rest off a SU/ATS win. With the Volunteers at a sweet 10-1 ATS vs conference opponent off SU/ATS loss, we'll jump on the Volunteers here. 

Michigan State/Rutgers Noon: I thought this line would be near a TD considering all the issues going on at Michigan State. Since Mel Tucker's unceremonious exit, the Spartans have been outscored 98-32 during their three-game skid. Harlon Barnett trying to hold the program together but defections lining up and on field turnovers (12) including nine over last two games, will not get it done. Rutgers has a solid Top15 defense that should give the Spartans' sputtering offense (111th nation) trouble. And throw in double revenge for Schiano, including 27-21 last year at East Lansing as a 10-point dog, and we got a play with the non-explosive but meticulous ball control Rutgers' team that hangs its hat on tough defense and a consistent ground game to wear down an opponent. We'll take it. Rutgers the call. 

Iowa State/Cincinnati Noon: On the stat sheet, Cincinnati dominates in virtually every category vs Iowa State. However, turnovers are keeping the Bearcats from winning football games. QB Emory Jones, who made stops at Florida and ASU before coming to Cincinnati, has thrown 5 TDs but 6 INTs won't have an easy time vs Iowa State's ball hawking secondary which got 4 picks vs TCU last week. On the flip side, Cyclones' QB Rocco Becht will not make Iowa State forget about Brock Purdy anytime soon. Becht does manage the game well with a 10:5 TD:INT ratio, and relies on a sturdy run game with Sanders, Sama III and Norton. Bearcats are coming off a bye, but not sold on Satterfield off byes. When he was at Louisville, 0-7 ATS with rest vs .500 or less opponent. Iowa State the call in the first ever meeting between these schools. 

Fresno State/Utah State 8:00: Statistically, Fresno State has a Top 25 defense in terms of yards given up and points allowed; however, closer look reveals a relatively light schedule vs impotent offenses. Last week, Fresno's defense was exposed against Wyoming (my free pick) which methodically worked their way down the field with the run and play action. Utah State has a potent offense (15th scoring nationally) that has a fine run/pass mix led by Cooper Legas (69% completion 10/4 TD/INT). Fresno can move the football too and Utah State is yielding defensively. But at a trading points standpoint, the Aggies can hang on their home field. Utah State HC Blake Anderson is a sweet 16-4 SU/ATS in conference games when coming off a win of more than 17 points. On the flip side, Bulldogs an ugly 0-11 ATS as a road favorite of more than 3 points off a SU/ATS loss. Utah State the call. 

Broncos/Chiefs 8:15: Looking at the stats reveals a mismatch between these two teams. Denver's defense has been atrocious. They've allowed record numbers on the ground, and they're the lone team to allow over 2000 yards (2253) at a whopping 7.2 YPP clip! Fortunately, the offense is able to generate with Wilson. He's doing a decent job taking care of the football (11 TD/2 INT) and the Broncos' run game is averaging a healthy 4.9 YPC. KC maintains a mid-level defense that usually rises to the occasion when needed under DC Spagnuolo. Chiefs don't give up many points, yet Denver does. But this is a division game and despite the Broncos dropping 15 straight in this series, they've covered 4 of the last 5 including both last year with virtually the same personnel but different coaches. Perhaps an upgrade in the Broncos' coaching staff can carry them through tonight; after all, Payton is 9-3 ATS as a road dog. And KC did lose outright in Game 1 on Thursday night on this very field. Moreover, Reid 4-12 ATS as a double-digit favorite off a non-division game vs an opponent off a SU loss. We'll look for the Broncos to keep it tight. 

West Virginia/Houston 7:00: West Virginia has a sound football team this year that isn't flashy but gets the job done. After an opening season loss to Penn State, the Mountaineers have reeled off four straight wins. They're winning with a solid run game, limiting mistakes, and playing tough defense. QB Greene won't overwhelm you with stats but he's a good leader, can run the football and limits mistakes (0 interceptions). On the other hand, Holgorsen (former WV head coach) and his bunch got blown out by two teams (TCU & Texas Tech) the Mountaineers beat. And they also lost to their in-state stepbrother - pass happy Rice. The Cougars' offense is good but their defense leaves much to be desired. Cougars sport a sluggish 106th ranked defense that allows a generous 4.6 YPC. Both of these teams are well rested, dormant since 9/30. Houston is a money burning 0-5 ATS at home with rest. WV a sweet 5-0 ATS on weekdays. We'll lay a FG on the road with West Virginia. 

Sam Houston State/New Mexico State 9:00: I was on NMS last Wednesday but I'm jumping off them tonight. Don't sleep on this Sam Houston team. They may be 0-5 SU but 3-1-1 ATS, have gotten better offensively each week, and have a leader (K.C. Keeler) who can flat out coach. The Bearkats may have one of the worst offenses in college football but have shown significant improvement recently, including against the class of Conference-USA -Liberty last week. They have a few weapons who are emerging in Noah Smith and Al'vonte Woodard. QB Shoemaker improving. New Mexico State has one of the weaker defenses SHS has faced this season. On the other hand, the Bearkats' defense has taken on some very good offenses in their tough schedule this year and only allowed 24.2 PPG. They're up for the task of limiting the Aggies' offense tonight. NMS has been inconsistent this season alternating losses and wins. They're coming off a big win at home on the 4th against FIU but won't have an easy time tonight. SHS the call. 

Analysis to follow..

LT/MTS 7:00: Blue Raiders record not indicative of the quality of their team. They faced Alabama and easily covered in Missouri. And last week, they had a good Jacksonville State team on the ropes but let them off the hook in the second half. Versatile QB Vattiato is a pretty good QB who occasionally forces throws. LT defense allows explosive plays and allows a generous 5.1 YPC on the ground. MTS does not have a proficient run game to thoroughly take advantage of it but can move the football enough to take pressure off Vattiato. Defensively, MTS much underrated. They dominated the line of scrimmage against JSU before turnovers led to the whitewash. LT may have QB Bachmeier (shoulder) back for this one. He's much better than Jack Turner. Still give edge to hungry Blue Raiders who are 8-1 ATS off back-to-back SU losses vs less than .500 team. Throw in revenge from last year's 40-24 loss, and we'll lay the FG. 

Packers/Raiders 8:15: Hard to jump on a Raiders team off three straight losses with a coach (McDaniels) who's not getting it done. Offensive minded McDaniels oversees an offense in the bottom tier of the league. QB Jimmy G, who cleared concussion protocol, leads the league in interceptions (6) despite having one of the best receivers in the league (Davonte Adams) at his disposal. And the running game with Josh Jacobs is not getting generated (2.7 YPC). Raiders are minus 9 in turnover margin - bottom of the league. Packers' defense was not good against the explosive offense of Detroit, which ran all over them; however, they had a few extra days to address those issues under DC Barry. And Packers do have the horses to rush QBs. On the other side of the ball, QB Love will have 4 of his 5 preferred offensive linemen suited up and a full arsenal of skill weaponry. Raiders' secondary has multiple injuries including their top defensive back Hobbs (out). Raiders' do have a great pass rusher in Crosby but his bookend partner Jones is no longer there and Tyree Wilson (#1 pick) has yet to impress. Look for Matt LeFleur to script a solid game plan in designing a script to get the best out of Love and company tonight. GB 10-1 ATS as non-division dog the last 3 seasons including 2-0 ATS this season. As for the Raiders, 1-7 ATS off SU division road loss. Packers the call. 

Eagles/Rams 4:05 Rams came into this season with low expectations from bettors but quickly emerged as a covering machine at 3-0-1 ATS. On the other hand, the incumbent NFC Champion - Philadelphia is covering (2-1-1 ATS) but not in the dominant fashion from last year. The Eagles' defense has allowed nine TD passes and in the bottom tier of pass defense. Rams' QB Stafford will have his top WR Kupp back in the fold today. Stafford sports a 4-1 SU mark vs Philadelphia as a member of Detroit. Rams' defense stepped up its game this season. Hurts not nearly as sharp as he was last season. We'll look for the Rams to stay in this one. Sirianni 1-4 ATS on the road off a division game. Take the Rams. 

Saints/Patriots 1:00: Saints are loaded with talented offensive weaponry. It's just a matter of time before they get it together. We'll look for that time to be today. NE working with a makeshift secondary and star pass rusher Judon on the IR. Surely Kamara will build off his 51 yards off 11 carries last week. And offensively, Patriots stuck in neutral. Saints' defense keeping them in games. We'll look for them to stall out the Patriots. Saints 8-0 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses vs a less than .500 team. And in Games 5 through 8, Saints are money on the road at 10-3 ATS including 6-1 ATS as a dog. Saints the call. 

Titans/Colts 1:00: Colts got a boost with the signing of RB Jonathan Taylor. But if he plays or not, not a significant factor; after all, Tennessee sports one of the top run-stop-units in the NFL (2.9 YPC). And Vrabel is excellent at scheming rookie QBs. Richardson should struggle here. On the flip side, not a Tannehill fan, but the run game is starting to cook again with King Henry. And play action off of that with Hopkins or Westbrooke-Ikhine is money, especially without MLB Leonard (groin) manning the low hole. Titans 5-0 SU/ATS in this series and we'll ride them again. 

Jaguars/Bills 9:30: Bills designated the home team today; however, Jacksonville is very comfortable playing in London. The Jaguars have won 5 of their last 8 SU there including 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium where they play today. I realize that the Bills are one of the hottest teams in the league now coming off blowout wins in their last three; however, Jaguars stayed in London after beating Atlanta in Wimbley Stadium. They're starting to gel offensively and have a swarming defense that's getting better each week. Keep in mind that back in 2021 with the Bills coming off a double digit win at home to Miami, they ran into a hungry Jacksonville team the following week and lost 9-6 with the other Josh Allen (DE Jag's) having a monster game (sack, fumble recovery, interception). Buffalo 0-5 ATS as favorites of more than 3 points vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. We'll take the points. 

Oregon State/California 10:00: Beavers clearly the better team here but they're coming off an emotional revenge win over Utah. They now travel to Berkeley where they've failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 attempts and playing into revenge from last season's 38-10 blasting. The Beavers won't have two key defensive players to start the first half (LB Hart Jr./DL Rawls) - both the subjects of targeting last week; consequently, Bears should be able to grind out some yards on the ground where they average 212 per game. On the other hand, Bears' defense remains respectable this season under defensive minded HC Wilcox. California is 10-1 ATS off a SU win vs greater than .666 opponent off a SU win. And they're 4-0 ATS after Arizona State. Take the points with the home team. 

Kentucky/Georgia 7:00: Stoops has been knocking at the door to enter the FBS elite; today, will be the quintessential test in knocking down that door. Georgia has won 13 straight in this series. And although Kentucky hasn't won SU in this series since 2009 at Athens 34-27, the Wildcats have covered 4 straight vs the Bulldogs. Like Georgia, Kentucky is off to a good start (5-0 SU) yet have a more experienced group of players back from last year's bowl team; as a matter of fact, last season no other team in the FBS started more freshmen than Kentucky. Add to that a few transfer portal players in QB Leary (NC State) and RB Ray Davis (Vanderbilt) who gashed the Florida defense last week for 280 yards rushing. Kentucky's veteran offensive line led the way to 329 yards rushing last week against a pretty good Florida defense! Keep in mind that Georgia lost 15 players to the NFL and another 10 to the transfer portal. Sure, they've reloaded through recruiting (#2) but the defensive numbers are down sharply from a year ago. Defensively, Kentucky enters this game bringing a Top 20 defense. Stoops will surely scheme around stopping the Bulldogs' best offensive weapon - TE Brock Bowers. Wildcats a sweet 6-0 ATS as a dog of more than 11 points. Kentucky the call.  

Kent State/Ohio U 3:30: Kent State in rebuilding mode with one of the worst offenses in FBS this year, scoring a meager 12.6 PPG. They face a Bobcats' defense that is Top 5 in yards allowed and points allowed with a ball hawking secondary. Ohio does not possess an explosive offense but should eventually wear down the pedestrian Flashes' offense to put this one away late. And they won't mind rubbing it in with double revenge in mind. Kent is 1-9 ATS off back-to-back SU losses vs an opponent with revenge. 

Rutgers/Wisconsin Noon: On the surface, Rutgers statistically strong vs the run; however, as we delve deeper, we see that Michigan ran all over them to the tune of 201 yards. Wisconsin has changed its offense under new OC Phil Longo but still love running the rock behind behemoth offensive linemen. Sure, Mellusi (leg) is out but his backup - Braelon Allen is averaging a whopping 7.1 YPC. And SMU transfer Mordecai has a plethora of receiving weaponry at his disposal. On the defensive side of the ball, Fickell is gradually shaping his defense into a Top 25 unit like he did at Cincinnati. Each week, I see the progression. Rutgers' offense looks good vs a Wagner, but not quite ready against the big boys of the Big 10. We'll lay the wood here. 

Boston College/Army Noon: Boston College coming off a satisfying come from behind win over struggling Virginia. Meanwhile, Army had the week off to stew over their second half collapse against Syracuse on 9/23. QB Bryson Daily threw two costly interceptions to seal Army's fate. The well-disciplined Knights have made a winning history of avoiding getting behind the sticks. This year, they've gone into the shotgun but still have the run-game a staple of their offense. Army has grinded out 219.5 YPG this season. Look for Army to attack a Boston College run-stop-unit that allows 4.2 YPC. Getting on the scoreboard early against the BC defense which allows 162 YPG, will be crucial. BC offense is notoriously slow out of the gate this year scoring a paltry 2.8 points average in the first quarter. We'll look for Monken's well-disciplined Black Knights to start strong and this time finish. 

Bears/Commanders 8:15: Both teams struggling. Bears on a 14-game slide dating back to last season. And quick turnaround after surrendering a 21-point lead. Tough process to regroup considering their banged up secondary. Meanwhile, Washington put forth a valiant effort to come up short in OT. Howell had a strong game off a dismal four interception effort in Buffalo the previous week. That's a testament to his maturation. We'll look for the Commanders' offense to stay in rhythm here vs the yielding Bears' defense. On the other hand, Washington defense underachieving considering the talent across the board. That's uncharacteristic of pretty good DC Jack Del Rio. Look for the Commanders to tighten it up on the defensive side tonight. Technically, Washington 8-1 ATS as favorites off back-to-back losses vs opponent with revenge (LY Washington 12-7 win at Chicago). Chicago's Eberflus 0-8 ATS vs an opponent off a SU loss. And Chicago has not done well on Thursdays. 1-11 ATS on Thursdays vs an opponent off a SU loss; moreover, 4-10 ATS as a road dog on Thursday nights. Washington's controlled this series at 4-1 ATS and sport a 2-0 ATS mark as a home favorite on Thursday night. Commanders the call. 

Jacksonville State/MTS 8:00: Rich Rodriguez, who was a major contributor to the outset of the no huddle, run oriented version of the spread offense. He did his best work as the HC of West Virginia, leading the Mounties to the 2005, 2006 Sugar Bowl, Gator Bowl wins. After failed stops at Michigan and Arizona, Rodriguez landed at Jacksonville State and guided the Gamecocks to a 9-2 record while scoring 34 PPG in the process. Lots of those starters returned this season as the Gamecocks land in Conference USA. They're proving they're worthy at 4-1 SU/ATS. Run game is cooking at 224 YPG (4.8 YPC) while QB Logan Smothers has been respectable running the offense (5 TD/O INTs). The Gamecocks play pretty good defense with a ball hawking secondary (1.6 INTs a game). Blue Raiders are just 1-4 SU/ATS but have taken on a tough non-conference schedule including two SEC teams. But fair value here with well-run Jacksonville State. We'll take the points. 

Seahawks/Giants 8:15: Extra rest and home game give the Giants some advantage here; however, not sure they can take advantage of it. Giants have yet to put together a full game of quality football after getting thrashed by Dallas, mounting a furious second half comeback at Arizona, and struggling at San Franscico on the 21st (Thursday). They come into this game with their 4th different offensive line combination and no Barkley (ankle). Interior Seattle defenders: Reed, Jones and Edwards should control LOS. And Daniel Jones has numerous flops on prime time tv games. Cant' trust him here. But I'm not a fan of the Seattle defense either. They're giving up way too many yards through the air. To have as much talent in the secondary as Seattle does, that's got to irk defensive minded Pete Carroll. What the Seahawks do have is a potent offense. After a dismal outing on opening day vs the Rams, Seattle got it together, offensively, with back-to-back good outings at Detroit and last week at home vs Carolina. Seattle has their share of offensive line injuries but working through it as skill weapons Walker III and Charbonnet fueling the run game, and Metcalf, Lockett, Smith-Njigba and TE Dissly helping QB Geno Smith get the ball out quickly. We'll look for the Seahawks to outgun NY tonight. Giants a money burning 1-11 ATS vs the NFC West. 

Chiefs/Jets 8:20: Chiefs turned it up a few notches last week when their offense was under scrutiny for lack of production. With a defense (#4 scoring defense) already in surprisingly good form, KC is a dangerous team. Hopefully, Chris Jones (groin) and Nick Bolton (MLB) are able to go, which add significant value to the defense. Actually, thought this line was going to be at double digits given the pathetic nature of the Jets' offense. Without Jones and Bolton, betting line remains tight. Good news is the KC offense is relatively healthy. Last time Mahomes faced this New York Jets team (2020), he scorched it for 460 yards and 5 TDs. Jets' defense significantly improved since but offensive woes and the lost confidence of Zach Wilson stress that defense too much to hold up the duration of a game. A defense that should be a Top 5 NFL unit across the board is reduced to average (12th scoring defense). Technically, Andy Reid a sweet 12-2 ATS as a favorite off a double-digit ATS win. We'll roll with KC

Dolphins/Bills 1:00: Bills have had trouble with the Dolphins recently. You look back to last season in December and in the playoff January when Dolphins were down to Skylar Thompson running the offense. Dolphins not only covered both games but almost won both in final minutes. Fast forward to today and Dolphins in much better shape personnel and coaching standpoint. Tua is healthy and on target with his ridiculous array of weaponry. Moreover, Miami now has a run game with Mostert and rookie Achane (203 yards last week), which opens up the quick pass game even more. Buffalo is a blitz happy team (#2 in sacks at 4 per game) which is playing with fire against this Miami team. Man coverage on Hill and Waddle (good to go), Achane or Mostert will be costly. Defensively, Dolphins still growing into the Vic Fangio defense. It will only get better as the season progresses. LB Jaelan Phillips is out but Van Ginkel a viable substitute. McDaniel now 7-1 ATS vs the AFC East. Dolphins 7-0 ATS after scoring 35+. Dolphins the call. 

Broncos/Bears 1:00: Both teams a pathetic excuse for an NFL team. Broncos the better of the worst here. Russell Wilson starting to get in a groove with his receivers; moreover, he's got more guidance on the sidelines than Fields does. Bears' defense fell off the hinges long before the DC Williams resigned (9/20). Chicago struggling to generate sacks, secondary injuries, and poor run stop unit; consequently, Broncos perfect opportunity to establish offensive rhythm. On the other hand, pride needs to be restored to Vance Joseph's unit after a 70-point Blitzkrieg. Payton 8-3 ATS on the road off back-to-back losses. Eberflus a dismal 0-8 ATS vs an opponent off a SU loss and 2-9 ATS off back-to-back losses. Denver the call. 

Ravens/Browns 1:00: Browns have been consistently inconsistent. They came out of the gate strong opening day vs Cincinnati, crapped themselves on national TV at Pittsburgh, and at home blasted Tennessee. Stefanski is a money burning 2-9 ATS off a non-division opponent vs a division opponent. And versus their division, the Browns are 2-16 ATS after allowing less than 14 points. Ravens are stewing after upended by Indy last week. They were shorthanded but getting a bit healthier this week. Harbaugh is a sweet 10-2 ATS as an over .500 team off a home game vs a division opponent. And having a healthy Lamar Jackson as a dog or favorite of less than 3 points, the Ravens are a sweet 10-2 SU/12-2-1 ATS. Sure, he's missing a few skill guys but still has Zay Flowers, Agholor, Duvernay, RB Edwards and TE Mark Andrews. Ravens usually find a way to make the next man up ready. Browns could be without Watson (shoulder) -GTD. Ravens the call. 

East Carolina/Rice 7:00:  Rice is 3-1 ATS, including covers at Texas and an outright win at home vs Houston. Defensively, they're yielding and give up yards and explosive plays. Today, however, they face a pedestrian offense (4.3 YPP) with little explosive play potential. And that's including last week's 44-0 demolition over lightweight Gardner-Webb. They're unsettled at QB after record setting QB Ahlers left. Flinn and Garcia rotate in at QB in an offense that produces a paltry 282.5 YPG. On the other hand, Rice has an offense capable of outscoring its opponent. Vagabond QB J.T. Daniels, who went from USC to Georgia, West Virginia, and now calling the signals at Rice. He airs it out in a pass happy offense. He sports a respectable 11/3 TD/INT. East Carolina has exhibited little pass rush at 0.8 sacks per game. Daniels should put up some big numbers today and outshoot the Pirates.