Duke/Virginia Tech 7:00: Duke's had a nice run (9-1 SU) but slugged by wins in 3 of last 4 going 3-1 SU/0-4 ATS. VT is no easy out. Hokies have beaten them in Blacksburg 5 of the last 6 times. And VT is playing a good stretch of ball here (3-0 SU/2-0-1 ATS). The Hokies have a bit more on floor experience than the Blue Devils; after all, only Filipowski and freshman McCain have started every game. With North Carolina on deck for Duke, this could be a Duke trap. VT still controls a strong home floor where they've won 10 of 11 SU. Only loss was a hard-fought loss to Miami Florida. Take the points with Virginia Tech. 

Lions/49ers 6:30: Over the last month, a concern for the 49ers has been effectively stopping the run and getting pressure on the QB. Last week, they did neither. Aaron Jones ran for 103 yards on 18 carries. 49ers run-stop-unit has allowed 100+ rush yards in 4 of past 5 games. And despite having two of the supposed best bookends in the NFL in Bosa and Young, they were unable to sack Love. Detroit's run game is starting to click with downhill Montgomery and shifty fast Gibbs. And Goff, who has been repeatedly bashed by pundits that he struggles vs the blitz, has completed 75% of his passes in the playoffs with 0 turnovers. Sure, only a couple of explosive plays but TB defense zone blitzed keeping safeties high enabling Goff to set quick on his hot reads to St. Brown and LaPorta. SF defense has been one of the lowest blitzing teams in the NFL primarily counting on their front 4 to get to the QB; however, if it plays out like last week, Goff and company should have a big night. Defensively, Lions' give up explosive plays and that's a concern, especially with all the 49ers' weapons, including Samuel (probable). The good news is the Lions' defense has been opportunistic making plays and forcing turnovers. We'll look for them to hang around. 

Chiefs/Ravens 3:00: Ravens surely seem like world beaters now. I was on them last week vs Houston but I'm fading them here. Sure, KC offense not as explosive as it was the past few years but an improved defense has created a good balance. Like I said last week when I was on KC (+2') vs Buffalo, Spagnuolo does a nice job scheming and preparing his unit. He'll find a way to limit Lamar Jackon's effectiveness.  Offensively, KC won't have their G Thuney (pec) but his replacement - Allegretti has seen plenty of action in the trenches for KC and well respected among his peers. And Pacheco is good to go. As for Mahomes, few teams limit him this time of year; after all, he's 13-3 as a playoff starter. His teammates seem to rally around him in big games as exhibited by Rice two weeks ago and even Valdes-Scantling last week. And he's 3-1 vs Lamar Jackson. Jackson will be this year's MVP but as Ric Flair said, "To be the man, you got to beat the man." I'll side with Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

Auburn/Mississippi State 3:30: Bruce Pearl's bunch had Alabama on the ropes on Wednesday but couldn't close it out. Look for the #8 Tigers to bounce back strong here. They've played well on the SEC road with easy wins at Arkansas and Vanderbilt. Talent level well beyond what Mississippi State brings to the floor. Auburn has won 4 straight in this series, including 3-1 ATS. We'll back Auburn here. 

Villanova/Butler 3:00: Hinkle Fieldhouse a strong home venue for the Bulldogs and Thad Matta continues the tradition in his second stint with Butler. Bulldogs are coming off a blowout win at Georgetown Wednesday night. Matta has his guys playing well on both ends of the floor. Meanwhile, Villanova is coming off getting swept by St. John's in the season series. The Wildcats haven't been the same since Jay Wright left. Neptune's bunch on a 1-4 slide. Butler delivers.

Pittsburgh/Miami Florida 2:15: I don't like going against Larranaga, but he's got multiple guys banged up or can't stay on the floor. Meanwhile, Panthers have won 3 straight on the road. They're getting great work from freshmen backcourt of Carrington and Lowe. And leading scorer Hinson is lighting it up from the perimeter. We'll grab the points with the road strong Panthers. 

Georgia/Florida Noon: Bulldogs playing well on the road and we're getting good value with them here. Georgia's HC Mike White, who left unceremoniously Florida in 2022, will have his boys well prepared to stick it to his old team. He's got his guys playing hard. Gators' defense suspect and should leave the door open for a Bulldogs cover here. Georgia's covered 5 straight at Florida and we'll look for the 6th to be a charm here. 

Kings/Warriors 10:00: Golden State has won this series SU in 6 of the last 8 games. Sacramento won the most recent game 124-123 November 23rd in Sacramento. Revenge is a motivator here as well as heavy hearts (Milojevic death) in a carry-over from yesterday's big win over Atlanta following an extended layoff (1st game in 9 days). And now that Draymond Green is back in action and in the flow of things since January 15th, the Warriors should be able to step up their game a notch. Looney and Green usually out muscle Sabonis in this matchup. And the Warriors are catching Fox and company not at their shooting best - on a 1-4 SU slide. We'll back Golden State here. 

Analysis to follow...

Lakers/Clippers 10:00: Both of these teams on an extended road trip after this game on account of the arena used for Grammy Awards. Clippers seem to have the greater urgency now. They're on an 8-2 ATS run as Harden has found his place in the Clippers loaded lineup. And now that Zubac is out, HC Lue is going with a smaller lineup and it should continue to produce the desired result. Revenge seeking Westbrook, who is now getting extended minutes, is using his athleticism to ignite more up-tempo full court ball; consequently, Lakers' AD will tire, especially with LeBron James (ankle) tonight. After a two-game slide in this series, we'll look for the Clippers to return to recent domination vs Lakers. Lay the points. 

Knicks/Nets 7:30: Knicks have been rocking since acquiring Anunoby. They're 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS since acquiring him. And 7 of those 9 wins were by double digits. Meanwhile, Brooklyn on a 2-8 slide. Last time these teams met (December 20th), Knicks delivered a 121-102 beatdown. NY won the last 3 in this series by a combined 61 points. We'll stay on surging Knicks here. 

Boston/Dallas 8:40: Right now, Boston a better team but the scheduling inadvertent scheduling advantage to Dallas should cost them. Dallas has been off since they lost to the Lakers on the 17th. In that game, the 3-point shooting was atrocious as Doncic was trying to get his legs back after injury. Doncic, Irving and Hardaway Jr. were a combined 3 of 21 from behind the arc. Dallas has been solid off losses this year (9-5 ATS). They've alternated wins and losses since January 7th. On the flip side, Boston is playing in their 3rd game in 4 days, going into this one unrested. And depth should be an issue late with Horford and Holiday listed as day-to-day. We'll look for them to suck wind late as the Mavericks deliver. 

Chiefs/Bills 6:30: Bills got the better of the Chiefs in Week 14. Not a big surprise considering the Bills are 3-1 in their last 4 regular season games vs KC; however, Mahomes and the Chiefs are 2-0 SU/ATS in the playoffs, when it counts most, vs Buffalo. And I get the Bills are ultra hungry, playing good football now, and have the home field advantage. The problem here is some secondary issues with a thinning secondary and a top LB - Bernard (84 tackles, 6' sacks, 3 INTs) hobbling with a sprained ankle. Remember, he was carted off against Pittsburgh, allowing the Steelers to ignite their run game. Sure, the Bills are deep on the defensive front, but the second level and backend are thin. Who better to exploit those weaknesses than Andy Reid. Look for RB Pacheco to set the tone. And we all know by now what Mahomes brings to any football field this time of year. With the Bills' defense allowing a generous 4.6 YPC (28th), KC should lean on their strong offensive line to grind out the yards with Mahomes working his magic on play action with Rice and Kelce. On the other hand, KC defense, which has usually taken a back seat to the offense in production in the Mahomes era, leads the way with the #2 defense in the league in yards and points allowed! And with LB Bolton and DT Chris Jones healthy, they're poised to stop the emerging run game with Cook.  And throw in the post season prep by one of the game's best DCs - Spagnuolo - this time of year, and KC is in good shape to win this one. 

Bucs/Lions 3:00: This time of year, I like teams that are road strong. TB has been that team. They're 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, and that includes trips to current playoff battling Green Bay, San Francisco, Houston and Buffalo. TB has been dismissed by lots of pundits this year, but the Buccaneers believe in themselves. Bucs and Mayfield do their best as a dog. TB has covered 9 of their last 12 dog roles. And guess who's 3-0 ATS in the playoffs? Yes, Baker Mayfield. Goff sports a 2-4 ATS mark in the same role. Sure, Detroit worked TB in Florida in Week Six 20-6. Buccaneers no joke seeking same season revenge against teams above .500 at 8-1 ATS. Bucs' Bowles will be well prepared to bracket St. Brown and dial up a combination of blitzes. Detroit definitely a tough out but they've given up leads throughout Campbell's tenure. And TB OC Canales has done a fine job pushing the right buttons for Mayfield. We'll take the points.

Packers/49ers 8:15: Great job by the Packers last week. I was all over them at +7. Today, I'm fading the youngest team in the NFL. Not necessarily because of their youth but because of inexperience against a well-rounded game plan Shanahan devised. Purdy had plenty of time to study the film on why Green Bay's Cover 6 and Cover 8 gave him trouble in the past. Purdy has multiple weapons, including McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Samuel and TE Kittle to work a GB defense that shot their wad last week in Dallas. Hard to reload with their top corner Jaire Alexander laboring on a sore ankle. GB's Love has been awesome, but Aaron Jones is his top ally. I don't see Jones running roughshod over the top tier SF run-stop-unit. And healthy bookends Chase and Bosa along with a now healthier and deep interior will force Love into throwing a tad early into a 49ers' ball hawking secondary (#2 in NFL in INTs). 49ers won past four home playoffs with two of those vs the Packers. And 4 of 5 of those wins were by 14+. We'll lay the wood. 

Texans/Ravens 4:30: Well rested Ravens had an opportunity to sit back, get healthy, reload and thoroughly scout the upstart Texans. Harbaugh has been outstanding with extra rest and should utilize the time wisely.  No question, Stroud is the real deal and came a long way from that opening day loss back on September 10th. Then again, Lamar Jackson has improved in the new system under Monken. Their offense is the perfect complement to their defense. Browns were banged up on both sides of the ball but Texans running into a near fully loaded Ravens' team and that's dangerous. Texans' Stroud won't have Noah Brown nor Tank Dell to throw to. Collins, Woods and TE Schultz a formidable receiving unit; however, Ravens simulated pressure which maintains backend coverage produced 27 sacks this season - Tops in the NFL. Linemen need an extra week to figure that out. Offensively, Dalvin Cook added to an already potent skill unit. And Lively picked up the slack for Andrews (IR). Texans among the worst defenses defending play action. That's a big part of the Ravens' game. We'll look for Baltimore's run game to wear down the Texans over the course of the game. Baltimore the call. 

Denver/Philadelphia 7:30: Embiid (swollen knee) came back strong yesterday after a three-game absence. He dropped 41 points with 10 rebounds on the Rockets. Tonight, he has to match vs Jokic and the defending champs. 76ers, however, a little thin in depth without Covington, De'Anthony and Bamba. Jokic, Murray and Porter Jr. in a nice rhythm. Nuggets 4-2 ATS in this series and 2-1 ATS at Philadelphia. Jokic got screwed out of the MVP last year to Embiid and may take this one personally. Nuggets the call. 

Eagles/Bucs 8:15: It's no secret that NFL teams want to build winning momentum in December to carry over into January playoffs. TB has (5-1 SU/ATS) while Philadelphia (1-5 SU / 0-6 ATS) has not. Both of these teams collided September 25th with the Eagles running all over TB to secure a rather easy 25-11 win. Eagles then continued to compile wins their ultra talented roster and finishing November with come from behind wins. Then December rolled around with SF stomping them at Lincoln Financial Field. Coaching mishaps that were percolating throughout the season finally were exposed and changes were made; particularly, on defense where injuries mounted and yards and explosive plays were piling up. Former Lions' HC Patricia was upgraded to calling the defense and he changed the terminology and tweaked the system - only to confuse the players more. Eagles now sit in the bottom tier of the NFL in pass defense coming off an embarrassing loss to the Giants. Sirianni is 1-5 ATS off a SU division loss. TB's Bowles is 7-3 ATS as a home dog. And as bad as Baker Mayfield is as a favorite, he's dangerous as a dog. We'll ride the winning momentum with TB here and take the points. 

Rams/Lions 8:15: Love the enthusiasm and high energy Campbell and his men bring to the field; however, that very energy and enthusiasm may be their downfall here. Campbell has made many an aggressive play calls, including fake punts and 4th down go-for-it plays. Some worked, some didn't. In a big game like this, it could come back to bite him and his Lions in the rear. McVay is shrewd Super Bowl winning coach who has his men in the thick of things a lot quicker than any of the pundits would have thought. Since the Rams bye week, they're on a 7-1 SU tear including an OT loss at AFC Top Seed Baltimore. The Rams' offensive line has improved dramatically, protecting Stafford and opening holes for RB Keyren Williams (1350 combined rush and receiving yards). Rookie WR Nacua has been amazing and Kupp is nearing his top form. Lions' TE LaPorta laboring with sprained knee. And the Lions' defense has shown vulnerability in the secondary frequently. We'll grab the points with the Rams. 

Packers/Cowboys 4:30: Packers are a dangerous dog playing with house money. They weren't expected to be in the playoffs this season and are one of the youngest teams in the league. Cowboys, on the other hand, are expected to challenge for a Super Bowl this season. Pressure on McCarthy and company to deliver. Yes, they've blown out a number of lightweights at home but exposed some glaring weaknesses in effort against Green Bay's division rival Detroit on December 30th. Green Bay's defense has stepped up its game recently and Jordan Love has been protected well in his banner year (4000+ yards passing, 32 TD/11 INTs). And with a healthy Aaron Jones, this offense clicks. GB has covered 9 of the last 10 in this series. Take the TD with GB 

Dolphins/Chiefs 8:15: Back in early November, KC jumped all over Miami early but let them back in the game in the 2nd half before finally closing it out. Today, Chiefs should be able to choke them out. Fair weathered Dolphins might have difficulty acclimating to the single digit temp in KC Saturday evening. And with a decimated linebacker corps consisting of Van Ginkel, Chubb, Baker and Phillips, wouldn't be surprised if Chiefs' HC utilizes RBs Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire to work the Dolphins not only between tackles but on the perimeter. Ingram and newly acquired Justin Houston (last played Week 8 w/ Carolina) and edge rusher Bruce Irvin all had solid careers but have lost a step. And only so much DC Fangio can do to get these guys into position. On the other hand, KC's Spagnuolo has done a bang-up job with KC's defense this season while the offense remained stagnant. Spagnuolo always dangerous dialing up rock-solid playoff schemes. And Tua not the greatest cold weather QB. We'll look for KC to deliver here. 

Washington/Michigan 7:30: In big games like this, the more physical team with playmakers will usually win. And I'm not going to label Washington finesse because they have an offensive line (Joe Moore Award) that protected Penix Jr. extremely well to the tune of just 8 sacks. And they faced four Top 25 defenses, including Oregon twice, Texas and Utah. Penix Jr. lit those defenses up for a combined 1,383 yards, 9 TDs to just 2 INTs. Michigan's stingy #1 defense sacked Alabama's Milroe 6 times and had 10 TFLs. Many a team has been blitz happy vs Penix Jr. and paid for it as explosive Huskies' receivers Odunze and Polk made the secondaries pay in man coverage. And if Michigan chooses to play zone, the Huskies versatile offense can run the football with 1100+ yard rusher with 16 TDs - Dillon Johnson (leg) who is good to go. No doubt, this is the best well rounded offense the Wolverines have faced this season. Defensively, Washington is yielding but has playmakers. The Huskies' defense is 12th in the nation in interceptions. Bottom line, Washington Coach Deboer has found ways to stay in games and win for the two years he's been there. He's a 10-0-1 ATS in non-conference games. We'll take the points. 

Packers/Bears 4:25: Chicago sputtered out of the gate this season with an underwhelming performance against GB to send them spiraling on an 0-4 season start. Since then, the Bears have righted the ship to come down the stretch on a 6-1-1 ATS tear. Their defense has improved dramatically. They lead the NFL in takeaways, Montez Sweat's mid-season acquisition has added a pass rush, and they are #1 against the run. Offensively, Justin Fields has given the Bears' faithful a possible reason to keep him for next year. Fields is 0-5 SU vs GB but don't count him or the Bears out here. GB was in this spot (clinch a playoff berth) last year but succumbed to another divisional foe - Lions. Look for the hungry Bears to be the Grinch this year. 

Seahawks/Cardinals 4:25: Seahawks were in a similar situation last season and delivered. Today, they'll need to beat the Cardinals get help from Chicago. We'll look for Pete Carroll to deliver. Seahawks have won 5 of the last 6 in this series. Cardinals coming off a huge upset over the Eagles. Kyler Murray just 4-14 SU/ATS vs winning foes with a win percentage of .705 or less. Grab the hungry Seahawks. 

Jaguars/Titans 1:00: On the surface, it appears that the Titans are down and out before this game even starts. Jacksonville will need this game to claim control of the AFC South en route to the playoffs while the beat-up Titans will be an afterthought. Titans, however, still have players looking to add bonuses or improve market value for next year. Hopkins, Henry and Burks, to name a few, give QB Tannehill viable weaponry against a Jaguar defense that allows 245 YPG through the air and have trouble sacking (25th) the QB. On the other hand, Jaguars' QB Lawrence is probably good to go. Vrabel no easy out vs division opponents, especially at home where the Titans are 4-2-1 ATS. And keep in mind that the 2 losses both went to OT and no loss was more than a field goal. Vrabel a sweet 15-7 SU/14-8 ATS with same season revenge. Take the points with Tennessee. 

Jets/Patriots 1:00: Patriots have owned the Jets in the Belichick era, including 10 straight victories. And career backups - such as Siemian- will rarely pick apart a Belichick coached defense. Moreover, Belichick is money at home vs an opponent off a SU loss at 19-7 ATS. And I can't trust Saleh who is 3-10 ATS as a dog vs an opponent off a SU loss. We'll look for the Patriots to sweep this series. 

Texas/Washington 8:45: Washington beat Texas in the Alamo Bowl last season and should deliver tonight. Last season, Huskies were more well balanced in their offense and defensively forced the Longhorns' Ewers into throwing repeatedly when the run game stalled out. Today, Texas at full strength and should be able to move the football on a yielding Washington defense. But Huskies have defensive playmakers who consistently made plays in the red zone. Offensively, the Huskies, arguably, have the best offensive line in the nation. They'll be tested against a tremendous defensive front of Texas; however, Penix Jr. has been spot on in his quick release and locating three of the best receivers in the nation. And they're going against a yielding secondary. I'll take the Huskies here with one of the best coaches in college football - Deboer. 

Alabama/Michigan 5:00: Can't ignore the Wolverines 0-6 bowl mark in its last six attempts. Four of those teams were from the SEC and a few of them ugly losses. Sure, Michigan brings to the field the power run game behind a well-disciplined offensive line. But keep in mind that Alabama has faced some explosive run games in the SEC and fared quite well; as a matter of fact, they're in the top quarter percentile in rush yards allowed and yards per carry. And QB McCarthy was shaky down the stretch. Alabama has dynamic cornerbacks in McKinstry and Arnold. And another dominant edge rusher in Turner in a unit that averages 3 sacks per game. Offensively, QB Milroe progressed substantially since that early season benching after Texas. He's had a sensational season 23/6 TD/INT 2716 yards passing. He has a strong supporting cast in a productive offense that is much better than what the stats indicate. Wolves have the #1 defense, but this is the best offense they faced all season. Alabama the call. 

Liberty/Oregon 1:00: I told you that Georgia would drop 60 on Florida State and they did. Today, I don't see Oregon running away with this one. It seems lopsided but Liberty has some ballers. QB Salter did a super job running this offense. And the Flames sport the #1 rushing team in the nation. Coach Chadwell doing a good media job telling the press how great Oregon is but he knows his boys will compete today. Oregon's QB Bo Nix won't have his #1 receiver Troy Franklin nor his center - Powers-Johnson (Rimington Trophy Winner) and those are significant losses. Oregon does have the athletes but look for the Flames to hang around. Chadwell will surely hitch the wagon onto 1300+ rusher Cooley to move the chains. And defensively, the ball hawking secondary of the Flames (#1 interceptions) can keep them in this game. Liberty the call. 

Analysis to follow...

Packers/Vikings 8:20: QB Cousins injured in the October 29th Vikings' win in Green Bay. It's been a QB carousel since. Kevin O'Connell has done a good job in keeping them competitive. Jaren Hall will be the featured QB tonight. He is well coached and has a good supporting cast of weaponry to deliver tonight. And fortunately, Vikings' DC Flores has done some masterful things with the Vikings' defense. Packers are one of the youngest teams in the league and often play like it. Defensively, they're getting worse as the season progresses. We'll look for the Vikings to find a way to sweep this series tonight. 

Dolphins/Ravens 1:00: Ravens are relatively healthy at this point of the season and that's significant. Dolphins, on the other hand, have some key contributors banged up. Waddle (1,014 yards receiving), who creates a near impossible to cover one-two-punch with Tyreek Hill on the field together, won't play. Not only that, Mostert (1, 012 rush yards w/ 18 TDs) has lingering knee and ankle injuries. And along the front line, Miami is dealing with injuries. Defensively, top corner Ramsey (knee) is questionable. Ravens, which have the league's #1 scoring defense, sports a sweet 9-1 ATS mark in December vs non-division opponents. Ravens the call. 

Saints/Tampa Bay 1:00: Seems like a layup for the Buccaneers from the way they've been playing; after all, they're on a 4-0 run and Baker Mayfield has been on fire. But Saints should be dangerous in this spot. They're eager to avenge October 1st home 26-9 home loss. And they're a strong 10-2 SU/ATS in their last dozen division games seeking same season revenge. And as good as Mayfield has been playing, he can't be trusted as a favorite: 11-23-2 ATS, including 2-10 ATS in his last 12. Saints' defense still solid, and Carr and company have improved in the red zone since that last meeting. 

Falcons/Bears 1:00: Bears have shown marked improvement since September. They've gone on a 7-3-2 ATS run. What I'm impressed about is their defense, which ranks #1 against the run and have a ball hawking secondary. With the mid-season acquisition of DE Montez Sweat, they've bolstered their pass rush. Atlanta has been underachieving and inconsistent on the offensive end virtually all season. Falcons are 1-4 ATS in this series and we'll look for the Bears to deliver here. 

Toledo/Wyoming 4:30: Got to go with the Cowboys who should win one final one for their coach - Craig Bohl - who's retiring after this game. Bohl sports a 4-0-1 ATS mark in bowl games. Toledo had a solid season and would most likely be the favorite here; however, starting QB Finn is transferring to Baylor and top rusher - Boone 1,400 yards is in the portal. Rockets turn to QB Tucker Gleason who had limited playing time in mop up duty this season.  Wyoming has a solid defense and takes a methodical approach to offense with QB Peasley and RB Waylee (5.9 YPC). They're one of the least penalized teams in the nation and play hard. We'll look for Coach Bohl to go out a winner. 

Georgia/Fla State 4:00: This line opened at Georgia (-14) and now as high as (-21). We'll lay the wood. Florida State had a good argument to be in the playoffs but without Jordan Travis (broken leg), their offense just couldn't move the football. Backup Rodemaker (in portal) didn't develop and the 'Noles are forced to go to freshman Glenn. Glenn will make his second consecutive start. His first - against a mediocre Louisville defense, did not go well. Now he goes against a real defense - Top 10 in yards allowed and points per game. And considering that Glenn won't have four significant playmakers who opted out: RB Benson (905 yards rushing), Coleman (50 catches), Wilson (41 catches) and Bell (39 catches), I don't see much offensive production from Florida State.  And the rabid Bulldogs are hungry after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship. Sure, it's their own fault, but for a team that won 45 of its last 47 games, they're in an ornery mood to make a statement. And usually when that's the case, they deliver. Georgia's offense is well run with QB Beck (72% completions). And even without Bowers (ankle), McConkey (probable) should add to a dynamic cast of skill players. 'Noles defense won't have All-American Verse or DL Lovett. This one should get ugly late. Georgia the call.  

Missouri/Ohio State 8:00: Ohio State is used to playing for National Championships and I question their focus here; especially with a multitude of transfer portal players including QB McCord. And I can't see two-time All-American Harrison Jr. playing when he's up for an almost certain NFL first round selection. OSU does have a stellar defense guided by DC Knowles. Missouri, however, does have stability in their program with limited defections. All American RB Schrader, QB Brady Cook and playmaking WR Burden III will play behind a stable offensive line. And Missouri's defense, which recorded 35 sacks and 18 takeaways showed throughout the season that they can hang with elite teams. We'll take the points with the hungrier and more stable program. 

Clemson/Kentucky Noon: At full strength, Clemson could run away with this game; however, Tigers have 6 key defensive players opting out, including leading tackler and disrupter Jeremiah Trotter Jr. That opens the door for the Wildcats' NFL bound RB Ray Davis who wants to play. And veteran QB Leary, who played 5 seasons at NC State and played against Clemson 3 times. This will be his first bowl game and he should make the best of it. Clemson does not have near as many defections offensively, but Kentucky defense should be able to be competitive. Clemson offense is in the bottom tier of the NCAA in interceptions and fumbles. Kentucky Hc Stoops has won some bowl games in recent years to the tune of 4-1. Grab the points. 

Arizona/Oklahoma 9:15: This line pretty much dictates who should win this game and I'm rolling with it. Jedd Fisch, in 3 seasons at the helm, has taken the Wildcats from the PAC 12 doormat to a major contender. They were a covering machine this season to the tune of 8-2 ATS. Their defense went from 124th in total yards allowed to 37th yielding well over 100 yards less per game than a year ago. Offensively, Fr QB Fifita filled in the 4th quarter of the 4th game of the season and led the Wildcats to the 23 ranked scoring offense in the nation. His favorite target is 6'5" matchup nightmare McMillan (1242 yards 10 TDs). Oklahoma has several defensive players in the portal including starting safety who's off to Ole Miss. Moreover, offensively, the Sooners will rip off the red shirt of freshman Jackson Arnold. Arizona defensive coordinator Nansen has film on Arnold who went 18 of 24 for 202 yards and 2 TDs. Starting QB Dillon Gabriel off to Oregon. Arnold has skill weaponry; however, starting LG Green (transferred), while C Raym and RT Guyton are preparing for the NFL draft. That's more than half the starting offensive line! We'll rock with Arizona

Jets/Browns 8:15: Browns' fans haven't been this excited about a QB since Bernie Kosar was under center. Joe Flacco flashing some old magic to put the Browns in the playoff hunt. He's surely not going to tell the media he's upset about the Jets not resigning him, especially after Rodgers went down; however, he's well aware of the Jets' backend tendencies and blitzes since he practiced with that defense all last season. Sure, Flacco has been sacked repeatedly and throwing more interceptions than he should; however, he's got the veteran skill to shake it off and come back to find Cooper or TE Njoku for TDs. And Jerome Ford has been a reliable back. Most importantly, Flacco won't have to single handedly win this game. Browns have the #1 defense in terms of yards allowed, yards per play allowed, and against the pass. They also have the highest interception rate in the league. Throw in Myles Garrett (13 of 44 team sacks) on interception prone career backup Siemian, and Cleveland should deliver easily. Browns 6-1 ATS on Thursday nights while the Jets a disturbing 0-5 ATS in the same role. Browns the call. 

NC State/Kansas State 5:45: Loads of transfers on each side. Kansas State better coached with Klieman. And the Wildcats QB Avery Johnson is arguably better than Will Howard (season starter) who entered the portal. Wildcats the call. 

Analysis to follow...

Analysis to follow...

Analysis to follow...

Kansas/UNLV 9:00: Great turnaround story for Barry Odom and the UNLV Rebels. First bowl game since 2013. They were a covering machine up until the last few weeks of the season. San Jose State and Boise State ran roughshod all over them. Kansas, which battled just about everyone strong in the Big 12, sports an explosive run game with RB Devin Neal (1000+ yards) behind a mammoth offensive line. UNLV defense is vulnerable - ranked 87th in nation against the run. And QB Jason Bean, no Jalen Daniels, but shifty and ran the offense well when called upon. UNLV has a very good "Go Go Offense" run by QB Maiava. Kansas' defense has taken on a number of fast paced offenses in the Big 12 and held their own. Kansas has a bit more talent and stability with HC Leipold who has done well as a more than TD favorite in his coaching career. Kansas the call. 

Ravens/49ers 8:15: 49ers a hot team but a bit overpriced here. Ravens come into this game with a lethal run game (164 YPG) behind a strong offensive line. SF's defensive line is thin which is a concern. Armstead is out and Hargrave is battling a hamstring issue. And their strongside outside backer - Burks is out. Gus the Bus and Lamar Jackson can cover lots of grass. Moreover, TE Lively is somewhat filling the void for Mark Andrews. And versatile Zay Flowers is living up to his #! draft choice billing while Beckham Jr. has a few miles left. Defensively, Ravens relatively healthy and balanced. Sure, SF is loaded with offensive weaponry in a dynamic Shannahan scheme. But Baltimore is well coached, travel well, and Lamar Jackson has been money vs NFC teams at 19-1! Moreover, he's 11-1 ATS as a dog! Throw in the fact that 7 straight MNF dogs have covered, and you got to take the points here. 

Cowboys/Dolphins 4:25: Cowboys have yet to prove they can win on the road vs a winning team. I don't believe it comes here. Dolphins have been dominant at home. Except for Tennessee sneaking up on them and out scheming them December 11th on MNF, the Dolphins have played well at home. This will be the first winning team they've played at home and should be well prepared. Dallas' defense exposed last week on the ground. Dolphins have a solid run game, Achane is healthy again, and Tyreek Hill (ankle) should be good to go. Defensively, Dolphins' DC Fangio has a history against McCarthy. Fangio was the DC for the Bears when McCarthy was running the Packers, and they didn't like each other. We'll look for the Dolphins' defense to be well prepared. Home team 29-16 in Tua's starts with Dolphins. Dolphins the call.  

Colts/Falcons 1:00: Colts have won 5 of the last 6 games SU/ATS to be right in the hunt of the AFC South. Meanwhile, Falcons lost 5 of their last 7 SU/ATS to fall to 3rd place in the NFC South. We'll take the road team here. Minshew has been solid directing the offense since Richardson went down. He's guided the Colts to wins in 3 of their last 4 road games. Falcons not getting it done offensively. Immense talent but QB play erratic. Lame duck Falcons' HC Smith will go back to Heinicke to run the offense. Colts won't have Pittman Jr. (concussion) but do get back RB Jonathan Taylor to fuel the run game. We'll grab the points with Indy. 

Lions/Vikings 1:00: Lions could clinch the division with a win here, but it shouldn't be easy. Vikings have a tough to figure out defense under Flores. They're 5th in the league against the run and disruptive vs the pass with Danielle Hunter (15' sacks) and company. Goff is at his best when the run game is cooking, and I don't see the Lions running all over Minnesota in Minneapolis. On the other hand, the Vikings' offensive line has held up well and should give QB Mullens time to operate. Chandler and Mattison have been serviceable running backs (4 YPC) while Mullens will have Addison, Jefferson, TE Hockenson at his disposal. I like how O'Connell keeps them in games. Vikings 9-1 ATS at home off a SU loss vs greater than .500 opponent. Take the points.

Bills/Chargers 8:00: McDermott and the Bills are good in this spot. 8-1-1 off blowout wins under McDermott. And been known to defeat inferior teams off a SU/ATS loss to the tune of 8-2 ATS. Bills know their season hangs in the balance with no margin for a loss. We'll look for Buffalo to have laser focus here. Chargers have cashed in their chips for the season. QB Easton Stick won't have Keenan Allen (heel) again. Bills' defense was sound vs the explosive Cowboys, should be lights out vs sputtering Chargers. Offensively, Bills should stick to hitching their wagon to James Cook (ill but probable) who decimated the Cowboys' defense for 179 yards rushing. Play action should work magic vs a worn-out Chargers' secondary. And to make matters worse, Chargers released their team captain a day ago - DT Joseph-Day who started all 13 games for them. Chargers' interim HC Giff Smith will need more than a prayer and Knute Rockne speech to hang in this game. Buffalo the call. 

James Madison/Air Force 3:30: So far, Sun Belt showing weakness in bowls. JM had an incredible year and nearly ran the table had it not been for an OT loss to Appalachian State in OT. The success of the program springboarded Coach Cignetti and much of his staff to Indiana. And like many bowl teams this season, there are opt outs. The Dukes' recording setting QB McCloud, however, will play.  Not sure if this offense will run like a well-oiled machine like it did in the regular season with the coaching turnover. And Air Force defense no joke. They're a Top 10 defense in total yards allowed and Top 20 in points allowed. Offensively, AF QB Zac Larrier, along with other skill guys, had time to heal. When healthy, AF has a potent run game in the Triple Option. The Dukes' new coaching staff apparently has people familiar with stopping the unique system. We'll see if they can play the assignment football necessary to do so. It's hard to simulate the system with scout players in practice, and when AF is on, they're hard to stop. Dukes' defense was strong all-season vs the run but gave up yardage through the air. AF won't pass more than a handful of times, but I don't like defensive imbalances. Bottom line, AF slid down the stretch dropping their last 4 games, including the all-important game to Army to start it off; however, AF has stability in their coaching staff and know how to win bowl games under Calhoun at 5-1 the last 6. Air Force the call. 

Analysis to follow...

Saints/Rams 8:15: One of the keys to the Rams' successful offense this season is the marked improvement in their offensive line which is on its way to produce a 1000+ yard rusher (Kyren Williams) and protect QB Stafford. Saints' defense has been staunch over last few weeks but McVay's offense well balanced. Rams have covered 4 straight including, in the process of, putting up good offensive numbers against top tier defenses Baltimore and Cleveland.  Rams' defense giving up points; however, they are healthy and have given up just 17.6 PPG over their last 5 at SoFi Stadium. Can't trust Dennis Allen who is just 2-16 ATS in his last 18 off a SU/ATS win, and he's 2-9 ATS off a double-digit ATS win. Saints are 0-7-2 ATS on Thursday Night Football. Rams the call. 

UTSA/Marshall 9:00: Seems like quite a few points to lay; however, at a close look, good value awaits with the Roadrunners. Jeff Traylor, in his fourth season coaching UTSA, has done a bang-up job by leading the Roadrunners to its 4th straight bowl appearance. He has a veteran QB Frank Harris who was instrumental in the success of the program. The only thing holding this program back is to win a bowl game. They've gone 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in their appearances for the last 3. Tonight, they should get it done. They're quite simply a better program on both sides of the ball. Marshall, under HC Huff, did not parlay last year's successful season into a burgeoning winner; instead, they lost tons of kids into the transfer portal, poor recruiting class, and tonight have key defections (transfer portal) at QB, offensive line, and wide receiver. QB Cole Pennington (Chad's son) sports an 0-6 TD/INT ratio. UTSA respectable defense will clearly focus on 1000+ rusher Rasheem Ali as the main weapon to shut down. Look for UTSA to finally get its first bowl victory in resounding fashion.

Eagles/Seahawks 8:15: Pete Carroll is beside himself knowing his underachieving team is on a 4 game slide. Both Seahawks' coordinators are on thin ice but Carroll has ways of figuring things out. Remember, although 0-4 SU, the Seahawks are 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games. And Carroll is an electric 22-5 ATS off back-to-back losses, including 13-0 ATS at home! Eagles have their own problems. They've been smacked down the last few weeks out schemed by McCarthy and Shannahan; consequently, they've demoted DC Desai to the upstairs booth while Matt Pattricia (remember that guy?) will be on the sidelines calling signals. As a Seahawks' backer, I'll take that tradeoff! Seahawks do get back Kenneth Walker III to fuel the run game. QB Geno Smith (groin) most likely will sit out but Drew Lock should be able to connect with the plethora of Seattle weapons against the Eagles' bottom tier of the league secondary. Seattle a sweet 9-1 ATS as a home dog on MNF. Take the points!

Cowboys/Bills 4:25: Cowboys appear to be one of the hottest teams in the NFL. But they still need validation going outside their division on the road to take on a top tier team. And when the Cowboys hit the road off a blowout win, they've gone 1-3 ATS. Only win was against lowly Carolina. Buffalo has surely not lived up to their preseason hype but they're starting to find their mojo winning 2 of their last 3. Margin of error is slim for Buffalo now to get to the playoffs. With losing not an option here, look for the Bills to come out firing on all cylinders at home. 

Commanders/Rams 4:05: Rams still in the playoff hunt while Washington will have to wait till next year. Rams lost a tight one in OT to Baltimore last week. Rams have covered 3 straight and offensively torched two of the best defenses in the NFL in back-to-back weeks. They hung 36 on Cleveland and followed up with 31 on Baltimore. Today, they face the worst defense in the NFL. Commanders' fired DC Jack Del Rio after the 45-10 demolition to Dallas. And then followed up by allowing Miami another 45. Commanders are allowing an average of 30 PPG this season. Commanders got rid of their two best edge rushers - Sweat (Chicago) and Young (SF) and struggle to fill those edge voids. Stafford has been well protected this season [1.8 sacks per game (4th)]. And he has a plethora of weapons (Nacua, Kupp, Atwell, Higbee) including a run game with versatile Kyren Williams (800 yards/5 YPC). Hard to believe Commanders can trade points. Howell has shown promise but heavily under duress (4.5 sacks per game - 30th) that lead to INTs (16). Rams' DC Morris is licking his chops despite the loss of Donald (groin). Rams the call. 

Texans/Titans 1:00: Titans coming off a short week, but we'll still grab them in this spot. With the win on MNF, they're still mathematically alive for the playoffs. Levis, with 7 NFL starts under his belt, proved he can lead the offense effectively. Defensively, Texans won't have disrupting edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) which should give Levis a split second more time to find receivers, particularly Hopkins. Offensively, Texans without their star QB Stroud (concussion), drops off offensive production dramatically vs a solid scheming defense of Tennessee. Backups Davis Mills (5-20-1 as a starter) or veteran Keenum won't have an easy time without key receivers Dell and Collins. And not having RT Fant (hip) won't help with blitz aggressive Titans' defense. We'll lay a field goal here. 

Chiefs/Patriots 1:00: Patriots unlikely to follow up with a strong offensive outing here. Patriots' offense exploited holes in the Steelers' second level defense to get the run game going. Hard to imagine RB Elliot running rampant through the much-improved KC run stop unit. And DC Spagnuolo will surely dial up a number of exotic blitzes and coverages to confuse Zappe. Patriots' offensive weaponry limited, at best. On the other hand, KC offense overdue to get untracked. We'll look for a strong showing here. 

Giants/Saints 1:00: Road team in this series is 3-0-1 ATS. Saints coming off an easy win over their division tomato can - Carolina. Problem is, Dennis Allen is a money burning 1-15 ATS off a SU/ATS win. And the Saints are just 1-5 ATS at home. Giants gained more confidence Monday by their come from behind win over Green Bay. QB Devito, not sacked last week, has not thrown an interception in 87 attempts. He has another weapon returning today in TE Waller (Off IR). Defensively, DC Martindale gradually getting his men on the same page. We'll take the points here. 

Broncos/Lions 8:15: Momentum is a dangerous thing. Detroit is spiraling downward while the Broncos have ascended into the playoff picture. Lions' defense has allowed 30 PPG over last 5 games. They now face a non-explosive, but efficient Broncos' offense led by a resurgent Russell Wilson and top target WR Sutton. HC Payton uses RBs Williams/Perine and McLaughlin well to keep the offense balanced. Offensively, Detroit stuck in neutral with 6 turnovers in their division games. Broncos' defense has forced 18 turnovers during their 6-1 run. Broncos' defense has not allowed more than 22 points in a game over their last 8. During that span, they've allowed just 16 PPG. HC Payton an impressive 11-5 ATS as a road dog, and 16-5 ATS as a dog off a SU/ATS win. Denver the call. 

New Mexico State/Fresno State 5:45: In two years, Jerry Kill has transformed NMS into a winner and, with a win here, perhaps the best Aggies team in its history. He's got a tough QB in Pavia, a strong run game, and overachieving defense. Fresno, which is with interim Coach Skipper after Tedford left down the stretch for health reasons. Don't believe the Bulldogs can recapture that winning momentum after an embarrassing 0-3 slide down the stretch, including losses to lightweights New Mexico and San Diego State. New Mexico State the call. 

JSU/ULL 2:15: ULL showed promise this year until losing starting QB Wooldridge in the third game. Then his backup -Chriss - went down with a season ending injury November 4th. Then 5th year senior Fields took over down the stretch in a 1-3 slide. Fields actually did well during that stretch. Fields will have to face an opportunistic defense that was a big part of the Gamecocks success. Moreover, it's the defense of ULL I'm concerned with here. Their run-stop-unit allows 160 YPG (85th) and now face the #5 run team in the nation averaging 232 YPG under HC Rich Rodriguez. ULL has been to this bowl numerous times in recent years but 2023 FBS arrival JSU enters not only its first FBS season but its first ever FBS Bowl. The Gamecocks are excited to be in New Orleans and we'll take them. 

Georgia Southern/Ohio University 11:00: Physical vs finesse, we'll grab physical most of the time. The more physical Bobcats of Ohio University sports the #5 scoring defense in the nation (15.4 PPG) and #4 in yards allowed (264). Their offense compliments their defense by pounding the ball with RBs Bangura and Allison behind a sturdy offensive line. And veteran QB Rourke has been in Athens seemingly forever. Georgia Southern under former USC HC Helton brings a pass happy offense (#1 in pass attempts) with QB Davis Brin. He can air it out yet has little run support (104th nationally with 104 YPG). He's been sacked 2.4 times per game. That does not bode well vs the opportunistic Ohio defense that thrives on forcing turnovers. And the GS defense is yielding to the tune of allowing nearly 400 YPG and 30 PPG - both in bottom tier nationally. GS lost its bowl game last year to another MAC team - Buffalo. This year, look for the Bobcats to the do the damage to them and record their first ever back-to-back 10-win seasons.

Chargers/Raiders 8:15: Both teams struggling. Chargers on a 1-4 slide while Raiders have lost 3 straight. Both operating with backup QBs but I'll give the edge to the Chargers here. Easton Stick has some skill. He did well in the preseason to earn the backup role and he's been around for years as an understudy of Rivers and Herbert. He won't have top receiver Keenan Allen (out), but Joshua Palmer (knee) is back in action to add to a pretty talented cast - Johnston, TE Everett and RBs Kelley and Ekeler. And the Chargers' defense does not look good on paper but has shown improvement in the second half of the season. Chargers grinded out a 24-17 win in Week 4. We''ll look for them to follow up with a strong effort here. Raiders a money burning 1-15 ATS as a home favorite of less than 4 points vs a less than .500 division opponent. And on TNF, Raiders a dud at 1-6 ATS as a favorite. LAC, on the other hand, 8-0 ATS after scoring less than 10 points. On TNF, Chargers 5-2 ATS as a road dog. Chargers the call. 

Lakers/Mavericks 7:40: This line moved from Dallas -1' at open to Dallas +4' at 2:00pm ET. Dallas has several contributors out, most likely Irving (heel bruise) and Grant Williams (knee). And I wouldn't count on Hardaway Jr. (back) playing. Nevertheless, we'll take the points with the shorthanded Mavericks. Doncic has a tendency to make his teammates better; for example, Lively II picked up his game substantially vs Memphis yesterday. Lakers are coming off winning the In-Season-Tournament. James and Davis expended their energy reserve on Saturday. Davis is notorious for his fall off following big games. Lakers just 5-7 in non-tournament games this season. And their 3-point shooting was atrocious vs Pacers hitting 2 of 13. They relied on energy and defensive intensity to win on Saturday; tonight, I see neither of those occurring. Dallas has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and we'll take the points here. 

Titans/Dolphins 8:15: Last time these teams played - 01/02/2022 - the Titans gave the Dolphins a 34-3 waxing in Nashville; of course, that was under the old Dolphins regime with Flores. Tua now has a bit more help in his supporting cast, including a run game and offensive minded coach in McDaniel. And throw in an explosive receiver in Hill that is on record pace in season receiving yards. Titans' secondary has had trouble defending the pass all season. And without their top lineman - Simmons, more tough sledding awaits in the secondary. Defensively, Dolphins are making gradual progress as the season unfolds. Sacks are mounting, run stop unit improving, and as Ramsey got healthy, it seems to be finally clicking under DC Fangio. Now that the Dolphins have film on Levis, after a few games under his belt, surely Fangio will install some exotic blitz/coverages to confuse the rookie. Dolphins have been virtually unstoppable all season at home while Titans have struggled bad on the road. We'll lay the wood. 

Denver/LAC 4:25: Last week, Denver came one play away from winning its sixth game in a row. Denver is relatively healthy and still a dangerous team. Their defense has not allowed more than 22 points over the last 7 games. And Russell Wilson's resurgence gives Denver a fighting chance here. Chargers' defense has been solid over the last few games, but Payton (11-5 ATS as a road dog) should find a way to put points on the board. Denver the call. 

Bucs/Falcons 1:00: All seams well with Atlanta. They're sitting on top of the lackluster NFC South. They've won two straight and going for the season series sweep here. I'm not buying into it. They're coming off a physical battle in NY and a bit banged up. QB Ridder has been sacked 28 times, 6 fumbles and 8 INTs. Division opponent - TB has a good run stop unit and rookie Diaby has 5 sacks in the last 6 games. TB has a decent secondary that overachieves with a healthy FS Winfield Jr. Offensively, QB Mayfield is at his best as an underdog. And as long as perennial All Pro Mike Evans is healthy, there is a chance to win. Falcons' HC Arthur Smith can't be trusted here. he's 0-5 ATS at home vs an opponent with revenge. TB the call. 

LAR/Baltimore 1:00: Rams playing some good ball, but this will be a stretch for them. The well rested Ravens are dangerous off a bye at 12-3 ATS. Rams lost both of their games to teams off a bye week (Dallas and Pittsburgh). And Lamar Jackson has been money against NFC teams at 18-1, including 6-0 vs the NFC West. Rams have a few key offensive guys banged up including rookie sensation Nacua (AC sprain) and TE Higbee (neck -doubtful). Ravens the call.  

Jaguars/Browns 1:00: Jaguars coming off a short week with a few key injuries. Now they fly into cold and windy Cleveland. Browns hungry to get back in the win column off two straight losses. Flacco has a game under his belt. He did a decent job last week in Los Angeles. He should light up a Jacksonville secondary that was scorched Monday by backup Jake Browning. Browns have a solid offensive line that can establish a run game. On the other hand, can't see Jaguars' QB Lawrence (ankle) at his most fleet footed against Myles Garrett and company. Browns the call. 

Houston/New York 1:00: Worth laying a field goal on the road with a confident Texans' team. The Jets are the complete antithesis of confident with shaky Zach Wilson back at the helm. Texans' ball hawking secondary, with Stingley now healthy, should add to their takeaways. Offensively, C.J. Stroud is playing at an elite level. He will miss Tank Dell and TE Schultz; however, he also has good chemistry with Collins. Texans do have depth with veteran Woods and the talented young Metchie and Hutchinson who could step up. We'll tread lightly with Houston. 

Analysis to follow...

Army/Navy 3:00: Both teams similar in production on both sides of the ball. Army, however, equipped with the more dangerous QB in Bryson Daily. Daily lead the Cadets to two wins over winning teams including blasting Air Force. Navy, on the other hand, did not beat a winning team all season. Both offenses were tweaked this season - operating from the shotgun- yet will line up in heavy package full house around the goal line. Army has a bit more talent among its offensive line. Army should capture the Commander-in=Chief Trophy today at Gillette Stadium. 

Patriots/Steelers 8:15: Similar defenses - both playing well. Patriots' defense has been tight over the last three weeks (10, 10, 6 ppg respectively). Steelers defense pretty solid all season (6th in scoring allowed). The deciding factor should be the offense. Both are near inept but Pittsburgh has more weapons TE Freiermuth, WR Pickens, WR Johnson, WR Allen Robinson at Mitch Trubisky's disposal. And the Steelers need to utilize RB Jaylen Warren more. He's averaging 5.9 YPC, and 38 receptions. Sure, G Seumalo (shoulder) is a loss; however, Nate Herbig is a veteran guy who can play both G and T well enough. As for New England, Zappe sports a QBR of 19. He won't have the engine of their jalopy offense - RB Stevenson (out). And Elliot's best years are behind him. The Patriots' offensive line is average at best. And the Patriots' receivers rarely get separation from defensive backs. And when they do, it usually results in a dropped ball or penalty. Steelers should be able to make more plays. And technically, Steelers an awesome 17-0 ATS at home after score less than 14 points vs a less than .500 foe. Pittsburgh the call. 

Analysis to follow...

Analysis to follow...

Cincinnati/Jacksonville 8:15: Bengals can go only as far as Joe Burrow can take them. And since he's on IR (wrist), it doesn't bode well for the Bengals. Jake Browning sports a poor 29.2 QBR and has been sacked 7 times over the last two games. And I don't see the run game (75.8 YPG -32nd in league) improving as teams will sneak an extra player in the box on run blitzes forcing inexperienced Browning to throw. Cincy 0-15 SU on the Prime Time Road and 0-9 SU on MNF road. Sure, he probably will have Tee Higgins back but not sure he can get him the ball. Jax will surely dial up plenty of blitzes to alter Browning's throws. Defensively, Bengals are allowing a league high 6.4 yards per play. With a multitude of three and outs tonight, that number may increase. We'll look for a rolling Jacksonville team to stay hot. 

49ers/Eagles 4:25: Eagles coming off another come from behind win. A game in which Buffalo was firmly in control but couldn't finish. Eagles are superbly talented and made big time plays when needed. Today, look for the 49ers, who possess near equal talent, to schematically outclass the Eagles. SF, coming off a Thursday Night game (11/23), had a few extra prep and rest days. And this time a year, that helps. SF, of course, looking to avenge last year's NFC Championship loss. SF is healthy on both sides of the ball, including QB Brock Purdy, who went down (shoulder) in that January loss. Eagles, however, won't have leading tackler - LB Zach Cunningham. Offensively, QB Hurts misses TE Goedert (forearm) who was that short yardage go-to-guy on third down. Eagles have been unable to replace his production. It should bite them in the ass today vs the ball hawking #1 scoring defense in the NFL. Take SF

Chargers/Patriots 1:00: Heavy action on Chargers but I don't believe it's warranted. After all, they've lost three straight including a physical battle at home vs Baltimore last week. Teams coming off Baltimore are usually banged up and sluggish going into the next game. Chargers have to travel cross country into cold and rainy Foxborough. Herbert is 0-2 vs Belichick and his top go-to receiver - Keenan Allen is laboring with a quad injury. No doubt, Patriots are pathetic offensively. Mac Jones is benched, and Zappe will start. That's surely not a vote of confidence in New England but fortunately, they face a defense that ranks dead last in yards allowed. Patriots put in a package for elusive QB Malik Cunningham by activating him off practice squad. Perhaps a good wrinkle against a leaky Chargers' run stop unit that gets up the field fast to sack the QB. Defensively, Patriots still sound and should make this an ugly game for NE to deliver. Belichick is a sweet 19-8 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU loss. Also, a strong 14-2 ATS off a non-division game vs a less than .500 opponent off a SU loss of more than 4 points. Value with the Patriots!

Colts/Titans 1:00; Revenge game for Tennessee from 10/8. Titans should have vertical threat Burks (concussion) back in action; consequently, QB Levis will have another deep threat to go to. Meanwhile, Colts' secondary thinned with JuJu Brents (quad) out. Titans a sweet 15-5 SU / 14-6 ATS with same season division revenge. Vrabel 12-4 ATS as a dog with revenge. Titans 4-0 at Nissan Stadium and we'll look for them to deliver here. 

Broncos/Texans 1:00: On paper, Broncos at the bottom tier of the league defensively; however, a closer look reveals a dramatic turnaround during their five-game winning streak. Over that 5-game run, Broncos' defense allowed just 16 PPG - rising to the top tier of the league. Offensively, a resurgent Russell Wilson actually looking like he did in the Seahawks' Super Bowl years. He sports a superb 20/4 TD/INT ratio. And the offensive line is protecting him while opening up holes in the run game (4.4 YPC). On the other hand, Houston is having a great year led by rookie C.J. Stroud. Stroud has been lighting up defenses all year but, shuffling of the offensive line, and nagging injuries to key receivers - Tank Dell (calf) and TE Shultz (out) could impact his effectiveness today against the revamped Broncos' defense. Sean Payton 11-2 ATS on the road off back-to-back wins, and 10-4 as a road dog. Broncos the call.  

Louisville/Florida State 8:00: Florida State doing everything they can to stay in the FBS Playoff picture but should run into trouble here. Seminoles got by Florida last week with QB Rodemaker. He did a decent job going 12 of 25 for 134 yards. He did have the run game to lean on with Benson (95 rush yards). But now that Louisville has film on Rodemaker, who should clear concussion protocol, the respectable Cardinals' defense should make the needed adjustments. And if Rodemaker can't go, 'Noles turn to freshman Brock Glenn, who is talented but very little experience in the Norvell system. I'm not a fan of Cardinals' QB Plummer but he's got a great mentor in Brohm. And Louisville dangerous off losses. They have some notable wins over ND, at NC State and 23-0 over Duke after they lost at Pitt. Perhaps a shakeup of the College Playoffs takes place tonight. Take Lousiville. 

Alabama/Georgia 4:00: Alabama is rarely a dog; as a matter of fact, you go back to 2021 in the SEC Championship, they were 6-point dogs to Georgia. Alabama won 41-24. The win was short lived as Georgia claimed the National Championship 33-18 as a 3-point favorite. Saban is dangerous with revenge and his 'Tide should put up a fight here. I like how his QB Milroe has developed. After that loss to Texas, Milroe has progressed well, to the tune of a passer rating of 70+ over the last 11 games. He's got great character, and the team feeds off that. Both of these teams can put up points, especially in critical moments of games - as each exhibited last week. Both can also make stops down the stretch when needed. We'll look for a competitive game here and go with the dog. 

Oregon/Washington 8:00: Must be insulting for the #3 seed - Washington to be getting double digits from the #11 seed - Oregon - a team the Huskies beat on October 14th. Primary reason is the surge in scoring differential over the last 6 games for Oregon (+29.33), while Washington struggled to win their last 3 games. Nevertheless, a win is a win and Huskies' HC Deboer knows how to win. His offensive line is getting to the health it was early in the season and WR McMillan is now healthy to add to the potent WR duo of Polk and Odunze. We'll look for Penix Jr. to rise to the occasion and deliver. 

Seahawks/Cowboys 8:15: It appears that both teams are heading in opposite directions with the Seahawks dropping three of their last four including two straight; meanwhile, Cowboys blasted three lightweights - Giants, Panthers and Commanders. Seattle's offense is stuck in neutral, defense underachieving badly under DC Hurtt. On the other hand, Cowboys' offense #1 in scoring, running on all cylinders, and defensively stifling under DC Quinn. But don't count Pete Carroll out; after all, he's an amazing 21-5 SU/20-5-1 ATS coming off consecutive losses. He's 16=6 as a .500 or greater team off a division opponent with back-to-back wins. And btw, Carroll taught Quinn everything he knows about defense. Quinn worked for Carroll back in the Legion of Boom era. And Seattle has too much talent defensively to underachieve. The secondary is loaded with Diggs, Woolen, Adams, Witherspoon - are you kidding me? Brooks and Wagner are as talented as they come at the second level and throw in recently acquired DE Leonard Williams to anchor the front. Offensively is where the Seahawks must improve, especially on 3rd down, which is Dallas' defensive strength. Seattle OC Waldron won't have RB Walker (oblique) so passing on early downs to the talented Seahawks' receiving corps will be paramount to avoid 3rd and long. Blitz pickup most definitely the focal point of practice for the week. Seattle has covered 4 straight in this series and this game is crucial for them to stay in the Wild Card race. Seattle the call.   

Ravens/Chargers 8:20: Physical over finesse. Ravens bring to LA the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. They lead the league in sacks and yards per play allowed (4.5). Sure, Herbert is an elite QB but he can only do so much. The receiving corps is thinning (Williams & Palmer on IR) and Allen, at his age, only has so much juice, and Quentin Johnston won't sneak up on the well-disciplined Ravens' secondary after stepping up his game recently. Chargers' OC Moore wanted to establish a run game early in the season, but since the Chargers are 18th in the NFL running the football, they're becoming more pass happy quickly. And they surely won't establish the ground game vs the Ravens with Roquan Smith manning the middle. On the defensive side of the ball, Chargers are 32nd vs the pass and 31st in allowing yards. Ravens' offense is rolling this year with Jackson. Sure, TE Andrews is out but look for Likely to fill some of the void. And the punishing ground game of Gus Edwards and Hill combined with the speed of Keaton Mitchell too much for the Bosa (IR) less Chargers. And yes, Lamar Jackson is 13-5 SU/15-2-1 ATS as a dog or favorite of fewer than 3 points. Ravens the call. 

Bills/Eagles 4:25: Good spot of the Bills to be in. After underachieving since that big win at home vs Miami back on October 1st, the Bills ended their 6 game ATS slide with a resounding win last week vs the Jets. Bills should follow up strong here; after all, in November, they're 21-5 ATS vs an opponent off a SU dog win. McDermott is 7-1 ATS vs non-division opponent off a SU dog win. I got lucky with the Eagles (+2') on Monday. Chiefs defeated themselves with multiple dropped balls. Eagles' defense in the lower tier in pass defense in multiple categories. They do have that fierce pass rush, but Josh Allen and company are #1 in sacks allowed. Look for Diggs, Davis and TE Kincaid to stay fed. And RB Cook is averaging a healthy 5 YPC. Eagles' offense do have super receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but a glaring void at TE without Goedert (IR). That void has yet to be filled and that was Hurts go to guy on 3rd and medium. Bills' defense getting a bit healthier now with some dudes back, including S Micah Hyde. Take Buffalo

Jaguars/Texans 1:00: Jacksonville has not found a way to beat their division rival. They're 1-9 SU in this series including a lopsided loss September 24th. Dell, Collins and TE Schultz are loving playing with rookie Stroud who outgunned his counterpart - Lawrence in the first matchup. And defensive savvy HC Ryans is yielding in his defensive philosophy but tighten heavy in the red zone and limit explosive plays. Got to stay on Houston which has been a cash cow as a dog at 5-1 ATS. 

South Alabama/Texas State 7:00: Uber talented South Alabama finally living up to their potential - putting back-to-back winning games together. Their rival - Texas State - suffered back-to-back losses including a 77-31 demolition at the hands of Arkansas State. Bobcats have a good offense with QB TJ Finley but defensively in the bottom tier of FBS teams. Jaguars' offense led by QB Carter Bradley should direct a good show tonight. Jaguars sport a top 20 defense in yards allowed and points allowed. We'll look for South Alabama to break their dry streak (0-4) at Bobcats Stadium with a resounding win. 

Arkansas State/Marshall 3:30: Arkansas State finishing season strong on a 4-0 ATS run including a 77-31 whitewashing of Texas State last week. Meanwhile, Marshall offense stuck in neutral as penalties and turnovers continue to do them in. Arkansas State defense not as bad as the stats suggest. Red Wolves should deliver here.