4*Cleveland Browns +8

3*Tampa Bay Buccaneers PK

4*Cleveland Browns +11

4*Indianapolis Colts +10

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5

4*LA Chargers +4

4*Cincinnati Bengals +5

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7

The Buccaneers are not as bad as their record indicates. Tampa Bay has outgained five of its seven opponents so far this season. The Saints are ranked 3rd (6.1) in net yards per play while the Buccaneers are ranked 5th (5.9) so far this season. Solid. New Orleans has cluster injuries on their offensive line. Division road underdogs of 6 or more points coming off three or more consecutive losses have been very profitable this decade. Take the road dog!

4*Chicago Bears +9.5

4*Buffalo Bills -2.5

4*LA Chargers +7.5

5*Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

The Steelers are coming off a very emotional victory, derailing the Chiefs from the undefeated ranks. The Bengals lost both games SU and ATS against Pittsburgh last season. I think the Bengals will be super focused coming off their BYE week. The Bengals have a real defense, allowing just 4.4 yards per play compared to 4.8 for the host. With this low total points should be at a premium. Take the home dog!

5*Chicago Bears +3.5

The Bears have a really good offensive line and sneaky good defense. The stop unit is allowing a QB rating of just 88.5 which is 9 points better than Carolina. The Bears are averaging 5.1 Yards per play with Trubisky which is an upgrade. He has all the skills to be a top-notch QB in this league. This will be Trubisky's third start and that bodes well coming off his best game with a 94 QB rating. Carolina is averaging 5.0 yards per play this season which ranks 24th. The Panthers have a huge revenge game on deck against the Buccaneers. The Bears are 7-3 ATS in October under John Fox. I think this line is way out of whack. Chicago is the best 2-4 team in the league and trending way up. Take the home dog in this upset maker!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +5

The line on this game before the season started was Kansas City -2.5. I think this line is inflated based on how the Steelers looked last week. Big Ben five turnovers in one his worst performances of his career at Heinz Field. I think the Steelers will be super focused going against a Chiefs' team that has Oakland, Denver, and Dallas on deck. Pittsburgh has recorded the 3rd most sacks in the league while Kansas City has allowed the 3rd most. Great spot for the road dog!

4*LA Rams +3

5*Chicago Bears +7

Baltimore returns home feeling confident after their west coast upset at Oakland. The Bears have a sneaky good offensive line and a real defense, which ranks 6th overall, allowing 27 yards per game less than the Ravens. Joe Flacco has the second worst quarterback rating (71.6) this season. Mitchell Trubisky should be able to make some chunk plays with his feet while avoiding the pass rush. The Bears are ranked 27th in yards per play (4.9) while the Ravens are ranked 29th (4.6). The Bears are upgraded at the QB position now while the host is just 1-6 ATS in non-conference games of late. Take the road dog!

5*Dallas Cowboys -2

I had the Rams last week in part because I thought Dallas was looking ahead to this game. The Packers have eliminated the Cowboys from the playoffs in two of the past three seasons. Dallas really needs this game going into their BYE week. Dallas gets Anthony Hitchens (LB) and David Irving (DE) back and those two players should help going against a Packers' team that plays Minnesota next week. Take the host at -2 or less!

4*LA Rams PK -110

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5

4*Cleveland Browns +3.5

4*LA Rams +7.5

4*Chicago Bears +7.5

4*New Orleans Saints +6

4*Buffalo Bills +3.5

5*Chicago Bears +7

The Bears have a sneaky good offensive line and the defense seems more comfortable in John Fox's third year with the team. Mike Glennon is a former Buccaneer and the Bears should be pumped up for this game. His 84.7 QBR in his career ranks above average. Tampa Bay hasn't played a meaningful game in quite some time. I think this line is a tad inflated. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +6

The Eagles have a top 5 offensive line and defensive line. That's a great combo and the Eagles have added some nice skill players. The Chiefs are coming off an emotional win against the Patriots. Fading home favorites after defeating the Super Bowl champion has been a key wise guy play for years. Take the Eagles plus the generous 6 points! 

4*Chicago Bears +7

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +6

4*Tennessee Titans -1.5

5*New England Patriots -3

I think the Patriots' scheme will create mismatches against this Falcons' defense. A defense that has allowed the second most points in Super Bowl history. New England has outgained its opponent in nine straight games. These teams are perfect in the Super Bowl, going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. The Patriots' offensive line is significantly better in pass protection, which is key in Super Bowl handicapping. New England has an underrated secondary that should be able to hold the Falcons to FG attempts on multiple possessions. New England owns the better red zone stats and is the more disciplined team. The Patriots have tons of "big game" experience, while the Falcons are a relatively young team. Nerves could creep in a little bit. That is a major factor and history has told us such. We get a future Hall of Fame head coach & QB with an extra week to prepare. Including the postseason, New England is 15-4 SU with an extra week of rest. I think this line is only heading higher. I like the Patriots by 7 in Super Bowl 51!

5*Seattle Seahawks +5

We are getting about an extra point with Earl Thomas not being able to play. These two teams are very familiar with each other and I think this will be a closer game than most people expect. I will gladly take the points with a defense that is ranked 22 spots higher (No. 5) than the host (No. 27), according to Football Outsiders. The Seahawks have outgained their opponent in six straight games and have a ton of postseason experience. This game won't feel too big for them. The Seahawks are 13-3 ATS as underdogs with QB Russell Wilson under center in his career. Take the road dog in this spot! 

5*Green Bay Packers -4

The Packers defeated the Giants 23-16, as 7-point home chalk on October 9th. Green Bay outgained New York 406-221. Eli Manning has never really been good in extreme cold and temps are expected to be around 15 degrees. I think this line is soft and should close higher. Green Bay is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points over the past three seasons. The Packers own the better red zone stats which is key in the playoffs. We get the better coach with a ton of postseason experience. Take the host!

4*Miami Dolphins +10

4*NY Jets +3.5

10*Denver Broncos +3 (+110)

The Kansas City Chiefs have been outgained in six of their past seven games, and are allowing more yards than they gain this season. Denver plays with same season revenge from a 30-27 setback on November 27th. We note that the Broncos outgained KC 464-273 in that overtime loss. Denver has dropped two in a row and I think they will bounce back behind their defense. A stop unit that is allowing just 4.8 yards per play this season, while holding opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 65.6 passer rating. NFL teams are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS after playing the Tennessee Titans since Week nine. Super Bowl winning teams have been gold after losing exactly two games in a row. I'll take the points with the hungry Broncos in this spot!

5*Chicago Bears +5.5

This is basically the Bears' Super Bowl and they will fight to the end with John Fox as head coach. Matt Barkley has played well at the QB position. These two teams are very familiar with each other's scheme. Aaron Rodgers is hobbled and they are coming off an emotional victory against Seattle last week. NFL teams are 14-27-3 as favorites after facing Pete Carroll's Seahawks the previous week. The Bears have the better defense and sport an 89.9 QB rating against. Pretty good. Take the hungry host!

5*Tennessee Titans +5.5

Marcus Mariota is getting better with each game and will be ready for the coldest game of his career. The Titans strong running game (144.5 per game) should perform well against this current Chiefs' run defense (122.9 yards against) in frigid conditions. Kansas City has been outgained in five of their past six games. I'll take the better offense and defense getting five and the hook every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Take the road dog in this upset maker! 

5*Green Bay Packers +3

The Packers can't afford any slip-ups and should be primed for a big effort at home. It will be very cold and the Packers are more accustomed to playing in frigid conditions. Seattle is coming off an emotional revenge game against the Carolina Panthers, and they have a big revenge game on deck (Thursday) against the LA Rams. Earl Thomas is OUT and he is the QB of the defense. He will be missed in this spot. Green Bay is 30-13 straight up in December home games of late. Take the hungry host!

4*Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

5*Arizona Cardinals -2.5

The Cardinals return home off a blowout loss against the Falcons and head coach Bruce Arians should have his team razor sharp. The coach has gone 4-0 SU after two consecutive losses in his Arizona career. They bring in the better defense and are holding opposing QB's to a 74.3 passer rating. The Redskins like to throw the ball and the Cardinals are solid against the pass, holding foes to just 195.1 yards per game. This is basically the Cardinals' Super Bowl knowing they can't afford another loss. Washington just played a physical game against Dallas and has a big game against the Eagles on deck. Arizona is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their past five games against the NFC East. Take the hungry host.

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6

The Buccaneers have won two in a row and have historically played the Seahawks tough. In 2013, Seattle defeated Tampa Bay 27-24 in overtime, but failed to cover the 16-point home spread. Tampa Bay has a rising star at QB and should be able to score enough points against a defense that will be missing some key personnel. Seattle is making its third trip into the Eastern Time Zone and have traveled more miles than any other team not playing in London. Seattle has a ginormous playoff revenge game against Carolina on deck. Look for the Buccaneers to make it four straight covers against the Seahawks. Take the host!

4*Cleveland Browns +7

4*Washington Redskins +7

The Cowboys defeated the Redskins earlier this season, 27-23 as 3.5-point road underdogs in a game yours truly was on. I will fade them in this rematch considering the Redskins outgained Dallas 432-380 in the first game and the underdog has gone 24-9 ATS in the past 33 meetings. Washington has won the stats in six straight games and they rank No. 7 in overall team efficiency. They are a real NFL team and I like them in this big time rivalry game on Thanksgiving Day. Take the generous 7 with the road team and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

4*Indianapolis Colts -2.5

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5

5*Baltimore Ravens +8.5

Baltimore is well-coached and have been fantastic under John Harbaugh as an underdog of more than 7 points. He's cashing 75% as an underdog of 7.5 or more points in Non-Conference games in his career. The Underdog in Cowboy games are on a 20-9 ATS run. NFL home favorites are just 13-32 ATS after playing the Steelers with Mike Tomlin as head coach. I can't resist taking the leagues top-ranked defense as more than a TD underdog. I'm going against Jo Public and will back the Ravens plus +8.5 points in this spot.

4*Seattle Seahawks +7.5

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -2

There are a few games every season when you think Las Vegas made a mistake with the line. This is a classic "trap" line. The Public will say I get Dallas and 2 points with a team that is ranked No. 4 in points per game and 4th in points against. The NFL doesn't work like that. The Steelers are in the middle of the pack in both, but this is more about how the Steelers played last week against the Ravens. I would expect the Steelers to play a much cleaner game against the Cowboys, who will be playing its second consecutive road game. Sometimes in the NFL you have to ignore the stats and go with your gut. And it's telling me that the Cowboys are due for a loss and the Steelers are due for a win. The Steelers normally bounce back after ugly games especially at home. Take the host!

5*New York Jets -121 (money line)

The Rams played a very physical game last week against Carolina and will now travel to play a 1:00 PM E (10 AM body clock) game. Tough. The Jets should be focused in this spot especially after having some of their players suspended for the first quarter of last week's game. These two teams have very good defensive lines, but the Jets offensive live has looked much better to me. Take the host! 

4* Philadelphia Eagles +2

5*LA Rams +3.5

The Panthers are coming off a physical game against Arizona and will now play their first West Coast game of the season. This is not the same team that went to the Super Bowl in my opinion. Jeff Fisher has been excellent as a home dog in his career, especially off a blowout loss. The Rams are 0-3 SU in their last three games despite out-gaining all three foes. Fisher is 16-7 ATS as a home underdog off a loss of 7 points or more. The Rams' defense should bounce back with a clutch game and the host should enjoy a significant advantage on special teams. The Rams are ranked No. 2, while the Panthers are ranked No. 27 at Football Outsiders. Take the home dog in this one!

5*NY Giants -2

This will be the Eagles third division road game in four weeks. Tough. The Giants will have two weeks to prepare for the Eagles knowing Philly has swept the season series two straight years. Rookie QB's in this league are cashing just 30% when facing a winning team with a week or more of rest after week seven. Speaking of Carson Wentz, his QB rating has seen a steady decline up until the Cowboys game. Dallas had a week of rest and luckily got the cover. Teams now have tape on Wentz and they can see he's got a hitch in his throwing motion on occasion. The Eagles are just 4-10 SU and 4-10 ATS after facing the Cowboys of late. Dallas plays physical and most teams have a hard time bouncing back without rest. Swallow the two points and take the host!

3*Cleveland Browns +7

4*Green Bay Packers +3

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1

The public keeps pounding the Raiders as this line has moved from Tampa Bay minus -1 to plus +1. Oakland is winning with smoke and mirrors as they haven't out-gained any opponent this year. Oakland's defense is ranked No. 28 according to Football Outsiders which is surprising for a 5-2 team. Tampa Bay checks in with a No. 15 ranking in team defense. Pretty good. The Raiders have benefited from takeaways (+8) which explains their undefeated road record. The Buccaneers are allowing 350.7 yards per game compared to 430.4 for Oakland. I love the Buccaneers' pass defense (237.5 per game) against this Raiders' air attack. The Bucs have won two straight (both on the road) and really want to win this one in front of their home crowd. Tampa Bay is just 3-15 SU at home over the past three seasons. Ignore that trend. This is a different team in a very good spot as a home underdog. Oakland has a big game against the defending Super Bowl Champions (Denver) next week. Take the host to end Oakland's road winning streak!  

4*Houston Texans -2.5

4*San Diego Chargers +7

4*Philadelphia Eagles +3

4*Miami Dolphins +3

4*Jacksonville Jaguars -1

4*Dallas Cowboys +4.5

5*Washington Redskins +3

I am going against the public in this one and taking the Redskins as an underdog at home. Carson Wentz and the Eagles will be playing their first division game and teams now have film on him and what the Eagles like to do on offense. Washington's defense has been getting stingier with each game and the Redskins check in with a 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS record as home underdogs of 3 points or less of late. Take the host!

5*San Diego Chargers +3.5

The Chargers are this close to being 4-0, but sit at 1-3. San Diego outgained the Saints by 71 points in their 1-point home loss last Sunday. A game they led most of the way. Oakland is 3-1 but they have allowed season-high yardage to all four teams, and they have been outgained in every game this season. The Chargers always give the Raiders a close game (19-7 ATS in Oakland, including 10-0 ATS if the Raiders won their last game). Lets take the points with the better defense in this big division matchup.

5*Tennessee Titans +3.5

This is a game that has been on the Titans' calendar ever since last year's October 18th matchup. The Dolphins crushed Tennessee 38-10 and took out QB Marcus Mariota on a cheap shot with a hit below his knees. In that game Lamar Miller had a huge day. He's not on the roster anymore and Miami is averaging just 77.8 rushing yards per game through four games. The Dolphins offensive line is ranked No. 32 in pass protection, while the Titans are ranked No. 6 according to Football Outsiders. Tennessee owns the better offense and defense and were getting 3.5 points. I like that. Miami is just 2-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the past three seasons. The Dolphins have been outgained in 21 of their past 26 games. Big revenge spot and were getting some line value. Take the road dog!

4*Detroit Lions +3.5

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

5*New York Jets +2.5

10*Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5

The Jaguars are hungry for a victory and will be playing in London for the third straight season. Indianapolis has never played a regular season game in London. I really believe that's a significant advantage for Jacksonville. The Colts have issues on the offensive line and in the secondary. I like taking division underdogs with the better defense. A defense that is allowing just 311 yards per game, compared to 400 for Indy. Dante Fowler Jr. is a full go for the Jags' defense. The Colts are coming off an emotional 4th quarter come-from-behind victory last week. This is a perfect spot for the Jags to win their first game and I think they will. Take the Jags plus the points.

5*Indianapolis Colts -127  (money line)

The Colts return home off their disappointing loss against the Broncos. The Colts fell apart in the second half and will now play a Chargers' team that has lost WR Keenan Allen and RB Danny Woodhead to the same injury. Indianapolis needs a win in the worst way after starting the season 0-2. Andrew Luck is 16-5 straight up off a loss in his career, including 9-0 after a defeat of 14 or more points. The Chargers are just 5-12 SU on the road over the last three seasons. Take the host!

5*Jacksonville Jaguars +1

The Jaguars return home off their embarrassing performance in San Diego. Jacksonville should be pumped up for this game knowing a third straight loss to begin the season will really damper its playoff hopes. The Jags are 0-2, but have won the stats in both games. This team is poised to play a really good game. Baltimore didn't impress me in their comeback win against the Browns as Cleveland outgained the Ravens. Northern teams often struggle when playing games in the Sunshine state during this month. Take the home dog!  

5*Atlanta Falcons +4.5

No team is as bad as they looked in the NFL and Vice Versa especially after week one. The Falcons should be able to score some points on this Raiders' defense. Atlanta outgained Tampa Bay in their week one loss while the Raiders were outgained in its win over the Saints. Oakland's offensive line is very "nicked" up and their depth will be tested in this game. The Underdog is 14-3 ATS in Dan Quinn's head coaching career. While I am high on the Raiders this season, this is a role that Oakland has struggled with. The Raiders are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games when installed as the favorite. I have the Raiders just 3-points better at home against Atlanta. NFL teams that are 0-1 facing a 1-0 team have a lot of motivation to not begin the season 0-2. Close game by a FG either way. Take the road dog this one!

4*Tennessee Titans +6

4*Cleveland Browns +5

5*New England Patriots +6

The Patriots have a very good defense, especially their front 7. The Cardinals' offensive line struggled early in preseason games and that was their first team unit. Carson Palmer is an above average thrower, but struggles with pressure in the pocket. Bill Belichick has been excellent with extra time to prepare and as an underdog. In fact, Belichick is 12-4 ATS as underdogs of 6 or more points in his time with the Patriots. I think New England with be just fine without Tom Brady for the first four games because of the brilliance of Belichick. Arizona has led the league in turnover differential for two consecutive seasons and that tends to regress to the mean over time. I will trust my numbers (2.5-point line value) and take the road underdog in this spot.

5*San Diego Chargers +7

The Chargers went 0-6 in all division games last season, despite having positive overall stats (gained more yards than allowed). Head Coach Mike McCoy has made it a point of emphases this season to be much better within the AFC West. San Diego showed nothing during the preseason so don't be scared about the team's performance last month. The offensive line is healthy and with the return of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, the Chargers should have a pretty good offense this year. Kansas City relies on a good running game and playing stout defense. No Jamaal Charles in this one. Philip Rivers is a sparkling 10-2-1 ATS as road underdogs in all division games in his career. Lastly, NFL teams that missed the playoffs are 17-6 ATS when playing a team that made the playoffs in week one over the last four seasons combined. This line seems a bit inflated to me. Take the Chargers plus seven!

4*Chicago Bears +6

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +5

5*Denver Broncos +6

This game reminds me of when the Broncos got crushed by the Seahawks 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII. Denver was favored by -2.5 points with 75% of the public backing them. Carolina opened as 3-point favorites and the line quickly moved with 74% of the bets and close to 90% of the total dollars wagered on the Panthers. The average home-field is worth 3.5 points so that means this would make Carolina -9.5 at home. Crazy. I would expect a pro Broncos crowd in Santa Clara. Denver has the No. 1 ranked defense and they are very active at all three levels. Manning should be able to read Carolina's defense and have some success on the ground and through the air. I think Gary Kubiak will do a great job having Thomas Davis (broken arm) isolated in coverage against one of his running backs. The team with the better defense has won 40 out of the past 49 Super Bowls straight-up. Also, Super Bowl teams with the #1 ranked defense have gone 9-2 SU in Super Bowl history, including a loss last year. The weather will be ideal with Sunny skies and temps approaching 70 by game time. I don't think this line will move much higher so I'm taking the Broncos plus the generous 6 points. 

4*Arizona Cardinals +3

The Panthers defeated the Cardinals in last year's playoffs 27-16 while outgaining Arizona 386-78. Those 78 yards represent an NFL playoff record for fewest yards gained. Carson Palmer watched helplessly from the sidelines as Ryan Lindley threw for just 51 yards. I think Bruce Arians will "play up" the underdog card to his team. The Panthers' secondary has some holes and I believe the road team has the skill on the outside to take advantage. Carolina benefited from one of the easiest schedules and they have been outgained by 232 yards combined in their last three games. Take the points in what should be a very close game! 

5*Seattle vs. Carolina Over 44

Both teams are stout against the run and I would expect Seattle and Carolina to employ more of an uptempo offense in hopes of moving the ball. It's worked all season as the Seahawks and Panthers are ranked #2 and #3 respectively in net yards per drive. Only Arizona is better. Both teams rank in the top 10 in red-zone efficiency. NFL West Coast teams playing and early 10 AM game favors higher-scoring games if the winds are less than 10 MPH. The Over is 33-14 when the total is less than 45 and the weather looks great. Sunny and calm winds. Go Over 44 points! 

5*New England -4

The Patriots are better in my opinion and appear to be getting healthier. I like Bill Belichick with extra time to prepare. The Chiefs' defense is ranked No. 28 in sacks allowed with 46. That's a bad matchup for the road team going against a Patriots team that is ranked 2nd in QB sacks with 49. The Chiefs played in a cozy indoor building last week and now must play a cold-weather game in a tough environment. Ignore the Pats two-game losing streak as injuries and Belichick pulling back the reigns were major factors. New England is being undervalued here. Pats by 7!

NFL Wild Card

4*Minnesota Vikings +5

I am going against the Public in this one and taking the home underdog in what could be one of the coldest games ever played in Minnesota. I would expect a much closer game than the first meeting. The kickoff temp is going to be around 0 degrees. In extremely cold weather you are more likely going to see one-possession games late in the fourth quarter. Both teams have a great running game and barring any crucial turnovers, I think the home team will keep this one close. Mike Zimmer loves playing the underdog card with his team. The Vikings are 21-10 ATS as underdogs over the last three seasons, including 6-1 ATS this year.

4*Houston Texans +3.5

The Texans are in a good spot if they can hold up on special teams. Houston has outgained seven of their last eight opponents, while holding six foes to season-low yards. The Texans have a sneaky good offense, averaging about 16 more yards per game than KC. The Chiefs are leaking oil, having been outgained in three of their past five games. Lets not forgot, the Texans outgained KC 396-330 in their 27-20 week one loss at NRG Stadium. Houston is ranked No. 11 in red-zone efficiency. The Chiefs are 5-11 ATS when playing on Saturday and 6-13 ATS in January games since 1993. Both teams mirror each other and I would expect this game to be decided by 3 points or less.

10*Oakland Raiders +7

This will be Oakland's Super Bowl. The Raiders lost by 14 points despite outgaining the Chiefs 361-232 in the first meeting back in early December. In fact, the Raiders blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead and should be focused at finishing the season at .500, after Vegas pegged their win total at 5.5 wins for the season. The Chiefs can only win the division if the Broncos lose at home as 10-point chalk against the Chargers. Kansas City is primed for a let down after winning nine straight to reach the playoffs. They are leaking oil, having been outgained by 89 and 110 yards respectively the last two weeks. Oakland has a sneaky good defense, allowing 5.6 yards per play while the Chiefs are allowing 5.4 yards per play. NFL division games tend to be closer in the second same-season meeting. The Raiders are 29-14 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 to 7 points, while the Chiefs are 6-12 ATS in January games since 1993. I would expect a very close game so lets take the road dog in this spot! 

4*New York Giants +5.5

10*Atlanta Falcons +7.5

The Panthers' defense is leaking, allowing 38 and 35 points in their last two road games. Carolina is coming off a very physical game against the Giants last week and will be facing a team who has a lot to play for. The Falcons are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and they remember these same Panthers embarrassed them 38-0 just two weeks ago. Carolina held the Falcons to 250 total yards. This is the Falcons' Super Bowl and I would expect a top-notch effort. Look for the home team improve to 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

10*San Diego Chargers -1.5

The Chargers have scored six points combined in their last two games so nobody will want to back them here except some "sharps". This game will be like the Chargers' Super Bowl, considering they are a potential candidate to relocate. I know 12-year veteran QB Philip Rivers is pumped-up to give the fans a victory at Qualcomm. Miami is the perfect opponent for this Chargers team to play right now. The Dolphins are coming off a Monday Night high-heat & high-humidity physical game and now must travel three time zones off a short week in Week 15 of a long season. That's tough to do and the Chargers bring in the better offense, defense, special teams, red-zone efficiency, and time of possession stats. Miami has been outgained in seven straight games. If that's not enough to make you like the Chargers, maybe this will. Miami clobbered the Chargers 37-0 last November and held San Diego to just 178 total yards. Look for RB Melvin Gordon to have his best game of the season and the home team to improve to 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

5*Chicago Bears +5.5

5*Cleveland Browns -1.5

This will be the second straight cold-weather road game for the 49ers. They must now travel cross-country to play a 1:00 PM E (10 AM Body Clock) game. The Browns will be playing its third straight home game after going 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in the previous two. NFL teams in this role are cashing just under 70% if the line is +3 to -3. This seems like a great spot for the home team to end its long embarrassing losing streak. San Francisco is 1-5 SU on the road this season and hasn't won back-to-back road games with this new regime. The 49ers have been outgained by a whopping 953 yards in their six road games this season. They are 0-6 ITS (in the stats) on the road and 2-10 ITS overall. At five reputable sportsbooks combined, 71% of the bets are coming in on the road team and the line hasn't moved. This seems like a trap line and the smart play is on the home team. While I'm not a fan of Manziel's long term success in this league, I do believe he can make enough plays with his arm and legs to win this game. 

5*St. Louis Rams +3

The Lions are coming off a tough emotional loss, losing on a hail-marry and now must travel to St. Louis. The Rams are coming off a dismal effort losing 27-3 at home to the Cardinals. The public has bet this game from Lions +1 to Lions -3. The big advantage for the Rams is the offensive line. St. Louis is ranked No. 2, allowing just 15 QB sacks this season, while the Lions are ranked 19th, allowing 31 sacks through last week. The Rams have the better running game and better scoring defense. I like them in this spot getting three points after last week's ugly showing.

4*New Orleans Saints +7

4*Oakland Raiders +3

4*Cleveland Browns +10

4*St. Louis Rams +6

4*Denver Broncos +3

4*Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5

5*New Orleans Saints +3

I wanted to see how teams (Saints) with worst defense in terms of points allowed (318) have performed after its BYE week. The numbers suggest these teams play much better with two weeks to prepare, after hearing how bad its defense has been. NFL teams that are ranked last in points allowed have gone 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS coming of a BYE after Week 10 of the season. Also, the Texans are just 5-12-1 ATS following a straight-up win and will now face a new defensive coordinator in his first game with two weeks to prepare. Houston doesn't really know what to expect from the Saints on defense. All of the previous Saints' games on tape with Ryan running the defense are useless to the Texans' coaching staff. I like the Saints to win this game outright!

4*Chicago Bears +9

The Bears are by far the most improved team as far as coaching goes. John Fox has been excellent as an underdog off a loss. The Bears have played a lot of close games as six of their past seven have been decided by 3 points or less. Chicago outgained the Packers in their opening week home loss and one sportsbook manager told me this line should be closer to 7. NFL teams are just 3-7 ATS after playing the Vikings this season. Short week and a 100% chance of rain points to a Bears cover.

5*San Diego Chargers +3

The Chargers have two weeks to prepare for this double-revenge game and Philip Rivers is looking to snap his second-longest losing streak in his career. The Chargers are taking this game very seriously and despite only having two wins, they are outgaining foes by 50 yards per game. The Chiefs will be playing their second straight road game and these teams are big time fade material as favorites after Week 10. Kansas City played a physical game last Sunday and teams usually suffer a huge let down after defeating the Broncos in Denver. Take the home dog!

5*Colts +6

The Falcons' defense is very similar to what Matt Hasselbeck saw against the Jaguars. He went 30-of-47 for 282 yards and one score earlier this season. I think the BYE week and playing indoors will benefit the 40-year old QB. The Colts offensive line, defensive line, and overall team defense are ranked higher than the Falcons according to Football Outsiders. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS as a favorite in the last three seasons. This should be a very close game so lets take the points.