10*Carolina Panthers +7.5

Carolina is coming off a loss despite outgaining Chicago by 42 yards. Carolina is averaging 6.0 yards per play while the Saints are averaging 5.5 yards per play. On defense, Carolina is allowing 5.5 yards per play while New Orleans is allowing 5.2 yards per play. The Saints swept the Panthers last season, although Carolina did cover a 7-point spread rather easily in New Orleans. That was "back in the day" when stadiums would be packed with fans. This game will have no fans and this spread is way too high. I have it at 6 so we are getting 1.5 points of value. Carolina has a really good coaching staff on both sides of the ball. The new scheme on offense with Mike Davis at RB has been confusing opponents. Here's what I really like about this matchup and current line. Carolina's defense is holding opposing QB's to a 86.2 passer rating which ranks 6th. On the flip side, New Orleans is allowing a 108.2 passer rating against which ranks 29th. Carolina is 4-1 ATS in the past five meeting. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points over the past three years. Finally, Teddy Bridgewater is 19-2 ATS as an underdog in his career, including 3-0 ATS this season. 

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +101 (money line)

The Packers are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS so far this season. I think having their BYE week at this point is not beneficial. Keep in mind, players and coaches aren't allowed to leave the city where the team is located during the off week, as they must provide daily specimens for Covid-19 testing. Aaron Rodgers was quoted as being "pissed off" that he could not return home. Tampa Bay's defense is ranked No. 2 while Green Bay is ranked 29th at Football Outsiders. The Bucs are allowing 4.9 yards per play while Green Bay is allowing 6.1 yards per play this season. Tampa Bay has 10 days to prepare after playing last Thursday while outgaining Chicago 339-243. Green Bay not really accustomed to playing in hot and humid weather. Take the home dog! Check out the full quote below.

''Totally sucks,'' the 36-year-old Rodgers said after the Packers' Monday night victory over the Atlanta Falcons. ''That's all I can say about that. Obviously it is what it is, the situation. But especially as a older player, I look forward to the bye weeks immensely. I look forward to kind of a reset, recharging the batteries.''

5*Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5

I would normally look to play on teams that just fired their head coach. Most of the time those teams are underdogs. I don't think this Houston team is happy about the change. Romeo Crennel is 28-55 SU as a head coach in his career. The Jaguars have the better offensive and defensive lines according to Football Outsiders. I'm taking the points with the road team.

5*Miami Dolphins +7

The Dolphins will have 10 days to prepare after playing last Thursday. Seattle is coming off two emotional prime-time victories and now must travel East for the second time this season. The Seahawks have been outgained in every game this season despite winning three one-possession games. Seattle has a long injury list to key players. They won't be 100% even if they play in the heat and humidity that is South Florida. Seattle is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS so far this season. Playing against these teams in week four would make you a lot of money. Russell Wilson has a QBR of 86.2. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a QBR of 81. Take the Dolphins plus the points in this upset maker!

4*Carolina Panthers +6.5

The Panthers are hungry for a win knowing they have dropped 10 straight games dating back to last season. Carolina played well in last week's setback outgaining TB 427-339. Four turnovers did not help. Teams usually are fired-up in the very next game after a star player (Christian Mccaffrey) gets hurt. The best handicap is the fact LAC just played an emotional OT game against a division rival. The Chargers ran 79 plays on offense while the defense allowed KC to run 70 plays. Tough. Head coach Anthony Lynn said "Justin Herbert was the backup for a reason". I would expect some growing pains in this game. Sure seems like a letdown spot to me. To back that up, the Chargers are 1-4-0 ATS in games after playing the KC Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes under center (2017-2019). Last year, they played in week 17 which explains only 5 games with no pushes. Take the Panthers plus the points in this upset maker!

3*New York Giants +4

I like the Giants at home even without RB Barkley. I actually think their offense will be better for at least one game. The 49ers have numerous injuries including QB Jimmy G. Backup Nick Mullins has not had much practice time. Take the home dog!

4*Miami Dolphins +6

The Dolphins return home after allowing 217 rushing yards against the Patriots with a minus -3 turnover differential. Still, it was a 3-point game in the 4th quarter. This team is well-coached and I would expect a much better effort. Buffalo defeated Miami in both games last season and should be pumped-up at home. Speaking of home, the Bills will have to play in the heat & humidity that is South Florida, with an expected heat index of 100-104 throughout the game. This will be a factor because the Bills ran a league-high 81 plays on offense last week against the Jets, while possessing the ball for 41:17. Both those numbers are insanely high. There is also a 55% chance of thunderstorms. Take the Dolphins plus the points!

5*Arizona Cardinals +7

The 49ers are a tad overrated in my opinion while the Cardinals are a tad underrated. Arizona looks improved on both sides of the ball with the addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins and LB Isaiah Simmons all over the field. San Francisco has to deal with the Super Bowl loser hangover. Tough. They are really "nicked" up to start the season with a long injury list. This is another division underdog in week one that looks solid.

4*Washington Football Team +6

Washington should be improved on defense with Ron Rivera taking over. This team sports 5 first-round picks on the D-line. In week one, you want to take NFL underdogs that missed the playoffs against playoff teams from the previous year. It's one of the best angles in all of sports! Also, I like playing division dogs in the opening week. Take Washington plus the points.

4*Kansas City Chiefs-120 (money line)

The Kansas City Chiefs have been consistently good over the last five seasons with a combined record of 57-23. The San Francisco 49ers went 4-12 last season and 6-10 two years ago. It's simply not their time yet. Check this out. San Francisco has a net point differential of +8.4 on the road while Kansas City has a +11.8 point differential on the road. Last season, the 49ers were -5.7 and the Chiefs were +8.7. The teams that the 49ers' defense struggled against was Baltimore and Seattle. Two mobile QB's with a basic passing game. The Chiefs have a complex passing game and with two weeks to prepare you can expect some new wrinkles from Andy Reid and company. Andy is 18-3 SU off a BYE in the regular season. The Chiefs have allowed just 25 sacks (tied 3rd) this season while the 49ers have allowed 36 (15th). The addition of Terrell Suggs has done wonders as the Chiefs' run and pass defense has improved 4 spots since he arrived. The Chiefs are going to stack the box with run suffers. I don't think the Jimmy G. can keep up. He only attempted 8 passes against Green Bay. Patrick Mahomes QBR is 76.4 (2nd). Jimmy G. QBR is 58.8 (12th). The 49ers can't win this game without numerous chunk passing plays. The Chiefs come in hot winning six in a row. Make it 7!

4*Seattle Seahawks +4.5

The Packers have the better stats in offensive and defensive line play, but it's hard to ignore the fact in QBR comparison. QBR is a percentage so 50 would be average. Russell Wilson's QBR is 69.8 (6th) while Aaron Rodgers is 50.8 (20th) this season. It's been quite some time that any QB with a QBR of less than 55 in the regular season has reached the conference finals. Seattle is ranked two spots higher in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. I think this will be a very close game so I'm taking the points.

5*Buffalo Bills +3

The Texans are allowing 6.3 yards per play on defense while the Bills are allowing 5.1 yards per play. The league average is 5.7 this season. Teams that allow over 6.0 are usually one and done in the playoffs. Buffalo has a net yards per play differential of +0.3 while Houston has a -0.3 net yards per play differential. Buffalo's offensive line is ranked 16th while Houston's offensive line is ranked 22nd at Football Outsiders. Defensive line, Buffalo is ranked 12th while Houston is ranked 22nd. Team defense, Buffalo is ranked 6th while Houston is ranked 22nd. Buffalo is ranked 13th in overall team efficiency while Houston is ranked 19th. JJ Watt might return. That's okay. He's not 100% returning from an injury that normally takes 3-4 months to recover. Huge coaching edge to the road team. Buffalo 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Houston went 1-6 ATS when installed as the favorite. I like the Bills plus the points!

5*Arizona Cardinals +10

The Seahawks have played a lot of one-possession games this season. The one game they did win by margin was at Arizona. The Cardinals are a feisty team with a sneaky good offense. They are ranked #12 in team offense at Football Outsiders. Arizona is 8-4 ATS as underdogs this season. Seattle is 3-6 ATS in the final four weeks of the regular season of late. Love the fact that Seattle plays San Francisco next week. Also, the Seahawks are really "nicked up". That injury report is long on some very key players. Arizona should be motivated to perform well for their head coach as the season wines down. I think this line should be closer to 8 points. Great value on the road dog!

4*New York Jets +3 (+110)

I'm taking the points with the much better QB. The Jets are getting two key players back (Williams & Adams) and should be motivated in their last home game. The Steelers play Baltimore next week. The Jets have 10 days to prepare after playing last Thursday. I like the home team in this one!

5*Arizona Cardinals +3

This is a tough spot for the road team. The Cleveland Browns are coming off back-to-back division games and they play Baltimore Ravens at home next week. The Cleveland Browns defeated the Bengals last week 27-19 despite getting outgained 451-333. Cleveland allowed 179 rushing yards and will now have to face an offense that likes to run a lot with a mobile QB. K. Murray QBR is 59.6 (11th). B. Mayfield QBR is 51.8 (19th). I don't think the Browns have the discipline on defense to stop Arizona from scoring in their last home game of the season. Take the hungry host!

5*Denver Broncos +10

The Chiefs are coming off a big win against New England despite only scoring three points in the 2nd half. Patrick Mahomes hurt his hand and while he will play, look for the Chiefs to be a bit more conservative. I love division dogs with same-season revenge getting 10 or more points. Great value on the road team!

5*Oakland Raiders +3

The Titans are playing its second straight road game having won three straight overall. Tennessee has been outgained in two of those three victories. The Titans rank last in sacks allowed and will have to matchup against a solid front seven. The Raiders return home after two blowout losses on the road. Last week, they actually outgained the Chiefs by 73 yards in losing 40-9. Tennessee has scored 108 points in their past three games combined and now must play on the road against a hungry team. Tough. I made this line Oakland -1. Take the home underdog!

5*New Orleans Saints -2.5

The 49ers will be playing its second straight road game after a physical and emotional contest against the Ravens. The Saints have 10 days to prepare coming off a season-low 184 passing yards by Drew Brees. I would expect a huge bounce back effort. San Francisco had their BYE back in week four. The Saints had their BYE in week nine. The Saints are 20-5 SU in their past 25 home games. The 49ers are 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS in their past five Dome games. I will swallow the 2.5 points with the home team!

5*Indianapolis Colts -2.5

The Colts have 10 days to prepare for this one after playing Houston on Thursday night. Frank Reich is a really good head coach and he should have this team fired up. The Titans' defense was on the field for a season-high 78 plays last week. Tough. The scoreboard shows a blowout win but if you watched that game you know four of the scores were fluky. The Titans are ranked dead last in sacks allowed (43 in 11 games) while the Colts are ranked 11th (21 in 11 games). Tennessee is 6-16 ATS in their past 22 games on field turf. Indianapolis is 40-19 ATS after a straight-up loss of late. Take the hungry host!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

I like the switch to Devlin Hodges who is an upgrade at this point of the season. I also like the matchup of the Steelers' front 7 against the Browns' offensive line. Pittsburgh will be pumped-up at home in this ginormous revenge game. The Browns will miss Myles Garrett on defense. Big coaching edge to the Steelers in this same-season rematch. Take the Steelers plus the generous 2.5 points. I would also try a slice on the money line.

10*Philadelphia Eagles -1.5

The Seahawks have won four in a row and I think the BYE week will stop their momentum. When Seattle's BYE week occurs after week 8, they have not performed well on the road. Seattle has played the 9th easiest schedule to date. They have won four games by 4 points or less and seven of the eight victories have been by 7 points or less. They are rated as one of the worst 8-2 teams in quite some time. The Seahawks like to run and the Eagles are really efficient at stopping the run. The Eagles are ranked 3rd in run defense at Football Outsiders while the Seahawks are ranked 22nd. The Eagles are ranked 6th in total defense at Football Outsiders while Seattle is ranked 21st. Seattle is ranked 24th in opponent yards per play (5.9) while the Eagles are ranked 11th (5.3). Philadelphia is ranked 5th in 3rd down efficiency on offense while only converting 23% against New England. I would expect a much better effort in this spot. Seattle ranks 14th in that stat and much worse on the road. The Eagles are playing their third straight home game after playing three straight road games. Teams off a SU and ATS loss in that third straight home game are cashing close to 70% since 2011. The Seahawks have allowed the 9th most fantasy points against TE's this season so expect Zach Ertz to have a huge game. Philadelphia is coming off a poor effort and they know this is a must win game. You might say it's the Eagles' Super Bowl. Jordan Howard and Alshon Jeffery are expected to return. Even if they don't, I'm all over the Eagles as a very short home favorite!

5*Miami Dolphins +6

These two rivals just played in Week 7. The Bills won 31-21 despite getting outgained 381-305. This will be the second of back-to-back road games for Buffalo. This team doesn't have a signature victory. The combined record of the six teams that Buffalo defeated are 12-44. There are no surprises. Both teams know exactly what each team wants to do. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a QBR of 61.1 (9th) while Josh Allen's QBR is 36 (31st). The Dolphins are playing hard for head coach Brain Flores. The Bills are 4-9 ATS as road chalk of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Check this out. NFL teams are 1-7 ATS after playing the Cleveland Browns this season. I really like the home dog in this upset maker!

5*Green Bay Packers -5

The Packers return home off an embarrassing performance at LA Chargers. It was their second straight road game and they looked tired. Green Bay allowed a season-high 159 rushing yards. They will now face a team that likes to run a lot. The Packers run defense should be much better. Carolina won 30-20 at home despite getting outgained by 61 yards against the Titans. The Panthers have now been outgained in four straight games. The big factor will be the cold and windy weather that Kyle Allen must deal with. He has the second smallest hand size (9 3/8) in the NFL, compare to Aaron Rodgers (10 1/8). Kyle Allen has fumble issues because of his small hands. Temps in the low to mid 30s can't be good for a QB and team not accustomed to those conditions. Aaron Rodgers is ranked 11th (57.4) in QBR while Kyle Allen is ranked 23rd (46.1). Green Bay is ranked 8th in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders while Carolina is ranked 16th. I like the home team, with the better offensive line, quite a bit!

4*Cleveland Browns -2.5

I think the Browns will play one of its better games now that expectations are low. I was never high on them as we gave out Browns under 9 wins on Twitter. Buffalo is 6-2, but the combined record of those six teams are 9-42. I went against the Bills when they hosted Philadelphia and this is a very similar spot. The Bills are ranked 25th in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders while the Browns are ranked 24th. The odds-makers are begging the public to take Buffalo and they are. As of late Tuesday evening, 83% of the cash with 82% of the tickets on Buffalo. The Browns are ranked 4th in special teams play while the Bills are ranked 24th at Football Outsiders. Buffalo is rated as one of the worst 6-2 teams in NFL history. Take the hungry host!

5*Carolina Panthers -4

The Carolina Panthers return home from getting embarrassed last week against the 49ers. They allowed 232 rushing yards which is the most in quite some time. Good defensive teams normally bounce back after really bad performances. The Titans will be playing its 9th straight game without rest. Tough. Tennessee is ranked dead last in sacks allowed (34) this season and will be without guard Rodger Saffold, who has graded high in his career. Carolina has recorded the second most sacks (30) this season, which seems like a huge edge for the home team. Only New England has more (31). Last week, Tennessee defeated the Buccaneers 27-23 despite getting outgained 389-264. They benefited from a +3 in turnover margin. The Titans defense was on the field for a season-high 76 plays. Seems like a flat spot for the road team. Carolina has held opposing QB's to a 76.7 passer rating which ranks 4th. The Panthers are ranked 15th in overall team efficiency while Tennessee is ranked 24th at Football Outsiders. Lets swallow the four points and take Carolina!

5*Carolina Panthers +6

I think this is a great spot for the road team. The Panthers have two weeks to prepare knowing they are 2-0 SU after its BYE week the past two seasons. I like playing on good head coaches with extra time to prepare. They always game plan something new that nobody has seen on tape. The 49ers are 6-0 this season, however the record of those six teams combined are 11-29. San Francisco has injuries on its offensive line. The Panthers have a tremendous front seven that can take advantage. Carolina leads the NFL in sacks with 27 in six games. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

The Eagles have lost two in a row while allowing over 400 total yards to the Vikings and Cowboys. The ladder being on National TV. The Bills are 5-1 but those five victories are against Miami, Tennessee, NY Giants, Jets, and the Bengals. Those teams have a combined record of 6-26. Also, teams are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS after beating up on the Dolphins this season. We get a pissed off team (especially on defense) getting to play a team that is challenged on offense. This seems like a great spot for the Eagles to turn its season around and get back to .500. Third straight road game for the Eagles but traveling from Philly to Buffalo is a short trip. Carson Wentz is ranked 7th in QBR (64.3) while Josh Allen is ranked 28th in QBR (37.2). This is one of the biggest QBR discrepancies in quite some time. The Eagles should win this game outright!

5*Indianapolis Colts -1

Both teams are coming off road victories against the Chiefs. The winner of this game will be in first place. The Colts lost to the Texans last year at home by a FG which dropped them to 1-3 at the time. Indy committed two costly fumbles or they just might have won. This will be the first back-to-back road trip for the Texans this season, and they have scored 84 points in their past two games. The Colts have two weeks to prepare and getting key players back for this conference rival. They won and covered after their BYE last year. NFL teams are 0-3 SU (two BYE's) after playing the Kansas City Chiefs with no rest this season. The Texans are going to miss rookie right tackle Tytus Howard who is out for at least a month. The Colts have the better offensive line and defense. Take the home team! 

4*Denver Broncos -2

This will be the Titans' third road game in four weeks and at high altitude. Tough. The Broncos are ranked 5th in run defense while the Titans are ranked 21st at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is ranked 31st in pass protection. Look for the Broncos to pick up lots of sacks. Joe Flacco's QBR is at 59.9 which ranks 11th. Marcus Mariota QBR is 37.1 which ranks 27th. This seems like a great spot for the Broncos to pick up another win after upsetting the Chargers last week. Swallow the short number and take Denver! 

4*LA Rams -3

The Rams have lost two in a row and will now have 10 days to prepare. The 49ers are coming off a big win on MNF and will have to play on a short week for the first time in a long time. The look ahead line on this game had the Rams favored by 5.5 points. San Francisco will have to play this game without FB Kyle Juszczyk who is a big key to their offense. When he left game, the 49ers offense struggled mightily. There is going to be an adjustment period. Take the Rams to get back on track!

5*Denver Broncos +6.5

The Broncos are one of the best 0-4 teams in quite some time. They are this close to being 2-2. Lets start up front where the Broncos O'line is ranked 7 spots higher than the Chargers thru the first four weeks. Joe Flacco is ranked 9th in QBR with a 63.3 mark while Rivers is ranked 14th with a 55.5 QBR. The Broncos defense holds QB's to a 97.3 passer rating while the Chargers allow QB's throw for a 111 passer rating which ranks 27th. They really miss Derwin James on the back end. The Chargers just signed a new kicker and punter this week. Even with Melvin Gordon returning, I like the Broncos to be much improved at stopping the run after allowing 269 rushing yards to the Jags. The Chargers don't really have a home-field advantage. The road team is 13-3-2 ATS in the past 18 meetings. More of the same! 

5*New Orleans Saints -3

The Bucs come in feeling "fat" and happy after its big outright upset over the Rams last week. We had the Bucs as a 5* best bet. Speaking of big upsets, the Bucs came into the Super Dome last year in Week 1 and won as 10-point dogs. The Saints remember that game big time. This will be the second of back-to-back road games after a West Coast trip. Tough. Tampa Bay has scored 86 points in their past two games and now must play a road game in a dome. Tough. The Saints special teams is ranked #1 while the Bucs special teams is ranked 29th at Football Outsiders. The Saints defeated the Cowboys last week despite not scoring a TD. This is a great spot for the home team. I think this line should be closer to 4.5 points. Take New Orleans!

4*Tampa Bay Bucs +10

The Bucs have a sneaky good offense and defense. Tampa Bay is ranked #7 at Football Outsiders in total defense. It's a small sample size but after three games this team is much improved. I was shocked to see that Winston owns a better QBR (38.3) over Goff (38.1). Tampa Bay is ranked #3 against the run while the Rams are ranked 21st at Football Outsiders. In fact, Ronald Jones is the 8th most efficient running back while Todd Gurley is ranked 13th. The LA Rams have a road game at Seattle on Thursday. Mentally, this is a flat spot for the Rams. Bruce Arians has been great ATS after a straight-up loss, and he's taking a beating from the media for his intentional delay of game penalty. Tampa Bay outgained the Giants 499-384 in last week's setback. The Bucs will give a great effort. I like the road dog in this one!

4*Miami Dolphins +16.5

This line is way too high. I was thinking more like 14. The Chargers will be playing a 10:00 AM body clock game in the heat and humidity that is south Florida. They are 1-8 ATS in their past nine tries in this role. I watched the entire Dolphins/Cowboys game last week and the Dolphins played much better than the final score indicates. They had a great chance to cover. While the organization may be tanking, the Dolphins' players are not. These are professionals that want to play hard because everything goes on tape in the NFL. Future jobs are on the line. Another handicap is the fact the Dolphins have a BYE next week. There has been six teams getting double digits before their BYE week and all six teams covered the spread. Take the hungry host against a Chargers team that is overrated in my opinion. 

10*Pittsburgh Steelers +7

The San Francisco 49ers return home all fat and happy after two straight road wins and covers. They have been away from home for 9 days as they stayed on the East Coast after winning at Tampa Bay. The Steelers showed me a lot in losing by 2 points after Big Ben went down. We get a fired-up team getting 7 points, against a team that is a tad overrated after defeating two teams that are 1-3 combined. Mason Rudolph has a full week to prepare as the starting QB. The team should be energized after trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick who is an upgrade at Safety. Love the Steelers in this upset maker!

4*Arizona Cardinals +2.5

Cam Newton is in a walking boot. I'm hearing he's very doubtful to play this week. That means undrafted free agent Kyle Allen will get the start. Ugh. Even if Cam plays he won't be able to run the offense the way Ron Rivera and company are accustomed to. No run-pass option for sure which use to be the staple of the Panthers' offense. Arizona is playing extremely hard and this line will reopen at Arizona -1.5 so get down ASAP.

5*Indianapolis Colts -1.5

The public is hammering the Falcons based on what they saw last Sunday night on NBC. The Falcons were very fortunate to win that game. Atlanta is much better at home than on the road. Indianapolis has covered two straight road games to start the season after everyone was giving up on them after Andrew Luck's sudden retirement. The Colts are well-coached and have lots of talent on both sides of the ball including a Top 5 offensive line. The Falcons have cluster injuries (at least two starters out) on their offensive line which came into the season ranked #22 by Pro Football Focus. The Colts defense has recorded eight sacks while the Falcons O'line has allowed five sacks. The Colts went 0-2 at home during the preseason despite outgaining both opponents by a combined 215 yards. The Colts stud linebacker Darius Leonard is questionable with a concussion. I like the Colts with or without Darius minus the small number!

4*Green Bay Packers -3 (+100)

Minnesota is 3-0-1 SU against Green Bay the past two seasons. I love playing on new head coaches in home division games if the line is right. At -3 no juice this looks good. The Packers will have 10 days to prepare for this rivalry game. Green Bay has the significantly better offensive line ranking 17 spots higher at PFF. I like the Packers in this spot!

4*Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-119)

I love playing on most NFL teams returning home off a blowout loss. Seattle will be playing a 10:00 AM body clock game against a team that is pissed off. Advantage Pittsburgh. The Seahawks escaped with a 1-point win despite getting outgained 429-233 against the Bengals. The Steelers offensive line is ranked #3 while the Seahawks O'line is ranked #23 at PFF. Take the hungry host!

5*Indianapolis Colts +7

Andrew Luck is gone but that doesn't mean the Colts don't have a talented roster. This team is loaded on both sides of the ball. Jacoby Brissett had been in this Colts' system and everybody loves this guy in terms of his leadership and work ethic. Just ask Bill Parcells who raves about him. Yes, Jacoby wasn't good in 2017, but that was a totally different system under than head coach Chuck Pagano. Frank Reich emphasizes quick passing and Brisett should do well, especially since the Chargers have cluster injuries in the secondary. Most notably is Derwin James who is their best athlete on the back end. What I really like about the Colts in this game is their offensive line is ranked 5th by Pro Football Focus. The Chargers offensive line is ranked 29th and this was when Russell Okung was healthy. He's out for this game. Last season, the Chargers O'line allowed pressure on 31% of Rivers drop backs. That ranked 25th in the league. Frank Reich was the Chargers offensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015. I think he knows how to defend Philip Rivers tendencies. The Chargers don't really have a home-field advantage like most teams. I love the Colts in this spot! 

5*Tennessee Titans +6

I think this line is way out of whack. Earlier in the Summer, I saw a lot of 3.5 and 4 points with huge public money pushing this line higher. The Titans are a solid team with the #4 ranked offensive line at Pro Football Focus. The Browns O'line is ranked 20th, and could struggle early. Mike Vrabel guided the Titans to a 9-7 record and to within one game of a playoff berth, all while navigating one of the NFL's toughest schedules. This should be a very competitive game so I'm taking the points.

3*Los Angeles Rams +3

I want to start off by saying my Super Bowl winner before the season started was the LA Rams over the Steelers. I will stick with it. You certainly won't get rich betting against Brady/Belichick for almost two decades. This is a light play for sure. With that said, I think the Rams have a lot of team speed on both sides of the ball. Playing on field turf should benefit the speedy Rams against the relatively slow Pats. Wade Philips faced Tom Brady and company numerous times when he was in Denver. They held Brady below his season average in almost every important QB stat. The Rams' defense is built very similar to those great Broncos' stop units although the Rams are a notch below. If Sean McVay was not the Rams head coach I would have liked the Pats when the line first came out. This guy is special and I don't think the Pats have a huge coaching edge. Sean McVay did coach against Belichick when he was in Washington. Kirk Cousins and the Redskins lost 27-10 with seven of those 10 points coming on a late garbage TD. Sean McVay said that loss kept him up all night and that the Patriots "took his team to the woodshed". The underdog is 12-4-1 ATS in the past 17 Super Bowls. Check this out. Since 2001, the team ranked higher (better) in Overall Team Efficiency at Football Outsiders has gone 15-3 in the BIG GAME, including three straight winners. That's a large sample size. The Rams are ranked #2 while the Patriots are ranked #7 this season. You know how much I love Football Outsiders when it comes to crunching numbers. They do a tremendous job. It's a great site. Take the Rams plus the points!

NFL BIG GAME props

Successful 2-point conversion: YES +225

Defense or ST TD: NO -230

Total Rushing yards Todd Gurley: OVER 65 (-120)

Total Receiving yards Julian Edelman  OVER 80 (-120)

10*New England Patriots -4

No team in the NFL has traveled more miles than the LA Chargers this season. This will be LAC's third straight road game and second straight Eastern time zone starting in the early slot. That game last week was very physical. The Patriots have the 3rd-ranked offensive line at Football Outsiders, including #1 in sacks allowed (21). I trust the coach/QB duo to game plan for the Chargers tired legs and pass rush. Look for the Patriots to spread the Chargers out, and utilize James White & Sony Michel in the passing game. New England should take advantage with Gronk as the Chargers are ranked #20 in defending the TE. The Patriots are ranked 15 spots higher in penalties per game. New England is ranked 4th while the Chargers are ranked 19th. Tired teams tend to commit more penalties too. I told you in my write-up last week that special teams means more in the playoffs and it certainly was a factor in the Eagles win. The Chargers are ranked 25th in Special Teams (worst among remaining teams) while the Patriots are ranked 16th. New England has won 7 straight games coming off a BYE in the playoffs by an average of 17 points per game. The Patriots are 8-0 SU at home this season outscoring foes by 16 points per game and +111 yard differential. Also, this game will be in the mid 20s. That's 30 degrees colder than what the Chargers played in at Baltimore. Finally, we are getting the better head coach to say the least. The public is all over the Chargers. Not me. Take the Pats!

5*Dallas Cowboys +7.5

I love playing on NFL underdogs of 7 or more points with the better defense in the postseason. The Dallas stop unit is ranked 9th while the Rams are ranked 19th at Football Outsiders. A big factor is the crowd. A 50/50 split seems more than likely. The Rams haven't played a meaningful game in almost a month. Both teams like to run a lot. The Cowboys run defense is ranked 3rd while the Rams run defense is ranked 21st at Football outsiders. Seems like a FG game either way to me. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +6

The Eagles are built a lot like the Bears with a huge advantage in playoff experience. Big factor. Chicago's offensive line is ranked 30th at Football Outsiders, despite their gaudy stats. Very few NFL teams win playoff games with that mark. The QB's are comparable (Trubisky QBR= 72.8, Foles QBR= 67.4) this season. I believe special teams means more in the playoffs and the Eagles are ranked 11 spots higher. The Bears are ranked 26th which is the worst mark of all the playoff teams. The Chargers are ranked 25th so it's real close. The Bears have won & covered four straight games and they have a +12 turnover differential. Great fade bate. I love playing on NFL underdogs in the Wild Card round if they had to win their final game to make the playoffs. This has been gold over the years. Take the Eagles!

4*Buffalo Bills -3.5

The Dolphins are now 0-2 after that dramatic last-play comeback at home against the Patriots. Miami has been outgained in nine straight games. Red flag. I can't ignore the Bills 3rd-ranked defense at Football Outsiders compared to the Dolphins 24th-ranked stop unit. Also, this is a big revenge game for the host. Miami defeated the Bills earlier this month 21-17, despite getting outgained 415-175. You can be sure Buffalo has been waiting for this rematch. Miami will be moving on from Ryan Tannehill next season according to numerous reports. The Bills are 10-3 SU and 10-3 ATS vs. the Dolphins in Buffalo over the past 13 years. More of the same with temps expected to be in the upper 20s.

5*Seattle Seahawks +2.5

This line suggests that the Chiefs would be 8.5-point chalk if this game was in Kansas City. Seems high to me. The Seahawks should be able to run against the Chiefs' last-ranked run defense at Football Outsiders. This will shorten the game and keep Patrick Mahomes and company off the field. The Chiefs have a passer rating against of 104.7 in road games. Seattle is ranked 19th in team defense at football outsiders while the Chiefs are ranked 27th. NFL winning home underdogs with the better defense are cashing close to 70% in December of late. Also, Seattle is 11-1-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2011. Take the Seahawks!

5*Philadelphia Eagles -124 (money line)

The Eagles are focused with Nick Foles under Center. This team is playing with passion and should be pumped-up in their last home game of the season. The Texans have been outgained in three straight games and have not committed a turnover in five straight games. Classic fade bate. This will also be the Texans second straight road game. They are 0-2 SU this season in that role. Houston has won 10 of 11 games with looks impressive. But, the combined record of the opponents Houston defeated is only 53-68. Finally, the Texans are 2-9 ATS in December games of late. Take the hungry host!

5*Indianapolis Colts -2.5

I have watched every Cowboys game since 1982. I can tell you when they play at 1:00 PM E it hasn't been pretty. Why? They rarely ever play in this time slot. The Cowboys are coming off a high-emotional National TV game. Dak Prescott threw for a career-high 455 yards in that OT thriller. Dallas ran 93 plays (3rd most this year) and I would expect the offense to be lethargic in this game, especially with a banged up offensive line. The Colts have allowed just 16 sacks which ranks 4th. Dallas has allowed 48 sacks which ranks 30th. That's a huge advantage for the host. We get the much better offensive line at home laying under 3. Love it. Andrew Luck has a QBR of 69.3 while Dak Prescott has a QBR of 53.8. The league average is around 60. Indy has a sneaky good defense. The Colts are ranked 11th at Football Outsiders. Dallas is ranked 7th. The Colts offense is ranked 13th at Football Outsiders while the Cowboys are ranked 25th. They have been better with Amari Cooper though. The Colts are ranked 11th in overall team efficiency while the Cowboys are ranked 17th. The Colts are second-best team at converting 3rd downs this season. Dallas is ranked 26th in 3rd down defense. Lay it!

5*Buffalo Bills -2

The Bills are 0-2 SU the past two weeks despite outgaining both opponents by +360 combined. Josh Allen is a tough matchup for teams that haven't seen him thanks to dynamic running ability. The Bills are ranked #3 in team defense at Football Outsiders while Detroit is ranked #29. Detroit won at Arizona 17-3 despite getting outgained 279-218. The Lions are 0-5 after a win by 14 or more points of late. Second straight road for the Lions and they are 0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS in that role this year. Josh Allen has a QBR of 57.1 while Matt Stafford check in at 50.7 QBR. I like fading dome teams playing in cold weather the final month of the season.

10*Indianapolis Colts +5.5

The Texans have won nine consecutive games which started in a Week four road victory over these Colts, by just 3 points in OT at the buzzer. Indianapolis outgained Houston 478-466, while sacking Deshaun Watson 7 times. Andrew Luck threw for 437 yards and now the Texans have cluster injuries in the secondary. Marlon Mack did not play in that game and he enters this contest averaging 5.0 yards per carry, the same exact average as Lamar Miller. Last week, the Texans won despite getting outgained 428-384. Houston benefited from a +4 turnover margin. Speaking of turnovers, the Texans have played two straight games without committing any. That's not sustainable. The Colts were shutout in Jacksonville, despite outgaining the Jags 265-211. The Colts' offensive line is ranked 14 spots higher at Football Outsiders. NFL underdogs with same-season revenge that own the significantly better offensive line have been gold through the years. The Colts are 3-1 SU in revenge games this season. Andrew Luck has a QBR of 74.6 which ranks 5th in all of football. Deshaun Watson has a QBR of 59.8 which ranks 17th. We get 5.5 points with the much better offensive line and QB. Love it. This is a must win game for a team that scored 0 points last week. Love it. The Colts are ranked #2 in Third Down conversion percentage this season. Houston ranks 14th. The combined W/L records of the Texans' 9 consecutive wins is 49-58. I'm not that impressed. The Colts are 8-2 ITS (in the stats) L10, while the Texans are 6-4 ITS L10. Houston is 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season of late. I love the Colts in this spot! Try a slice on the money line as well.  

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-124)

The Chargers have won seven of their past eight games, but only the Seahawks had a winning record. The Steelers are coming off that meltdown against the Broncos and I really like them to bounce back at home. Philip Rivers completed 25 straight passes (NFL record) and set an an NFL record for completion percentage in a game (28 for 29). That will not happen again and you can be sure the Steelers defense will be ready. Pittsburgh is ranked 1st in sacks. I always love fading teams/players off a record setting performance especially in football. The Chargers are ranked dead last in special teams play at Football Outsiders. The weather conditions should benefit the home team as well. Take the Steelers before this line climbs to four.

5*Buffalo Bills +5

The Bills offense plays better with Josh Allen under center. The advanced analytics prove it. His mobility is a big factor playing against teams for the first time. I can't say the same for the Dolphins. Brock Osweiler has a better QBR than Ryan Tannehill this season. The major handicap is the fact that the Bills have the 2nd-best team defense, while the Dolphins stop unit is ranked 21st at Football Outsiders. Miami has not fared well against QB's that can run. In fact, the Dolphins have been outgained in nine of their past 10 games, including five in a row. Miami is ranked 29th in sacks. That should bode well for Josh Allen and the Bills' offense. I don't think the warmer weather is a factor as the Bills had their BYE two weeks ago. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings. Miami has not defeated the Bills by more than 3 points since November of 2014. The Dolphins are 5-15 ATS in their past 20 games in the month of December. The Bills are well-coached and love them as a division underdog in this low-scoring game.

5*Denver Broncos +3 (+100)

This looks to be the trap line of the year. How can a Steelers team that is 7-2-1 be favored by just 3 points (opened at 3.5) in Denver who is 4-6. Here's why. The major handicap is the fact that the Steelers will be playing in back-to-back road games for the first time all year. The schedule makers were very kind to the Steelers so far this season. It gets tougher. Think about this. They fly to Jacksonville and play a high-emotional game winning at the very end in dramatic fashion. They hop on a plane and travel back home. Now, they make the long trip to Denver in altitude. The airport is about 1 hour away from the hotel/stadium. Long bus ride. Denver is ranked 4th in team defense while the Steelers are ranked 13th at Football Outsiders. The Steelers and Broncos are ranked 6th & 7th respectively in overall team efficiency. Denver has a sneaky good offensive line, ranking 5th while Pittsburgh is ranked 14th. Pittsburgh hasn't played against a pass rush like this Broncos' team possess all year. The Broncos are ranked 3rd in time-of-possession in all of football. At high-altitude combined with the Steelers playing on the road for the second straight week should bode well for the home team. Pittsburgh is just 5-13 ATS in their past 18 games in Week 12. Denver is 14-7 SU & ATS as home underdogs of 3 points or less since 1993. Take the Broncos!

4*Washington Redskins +7.5 (-115)

These two teams are no strangers to each other. Colt McCoy has spent many years in Texas and loves playing against the Cowboys. His two best games of his career came against Dallas. Colt McCoy has some skills that should keep this game close. Also, the Redskins defense is ranked 14th at Football Outsiders while the Cowboys are ranked 21st. Overall team efficiency finds the Redskins ranked 16th while Dallas is ranked 22nd. Washington is ranked 19 spots higher in special teams play. I don't think Colt McCoy is the answer long term but should be good enough in this game. Look for the Redskins improve to 7-1 ATS as underdogs this season.

5*Denver Broncos +7.5

The Broncos have two weeks to prepare for their division rival in a big time revenge spot. Denver got shutout (21-0) in Los Angeles on (12/22/17) despite outgaining LAC 251-242. LAC won the turnover battle 3-0 and that was the difference. The Chargers' defense has been on the field for 138 plays over the past two weeks. Tough. LAC has played a very soft schedule. In the Chargers' seven victories their opponents combined won/loss record is 18-37. Denver has played a very tough schedule. In the Broncos' six losses their foes combined won/loss record is 31-17. LAC is 10-33 ATS in their past 43 home games. LAC is 2-5 ATS after a SU & ATS win of late. I love the two headed monster with Royce Freeman (returning) and Phillip Lindsay at RB. This is a classic overlay so take the generous 7.5 points!

4*Seattle Seahawks -1

Seattle has dropped its past two games overall and at Centurylink Field. The Seahawks are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS after losing two or more consecutive games this season. The Packers have allowed 31, 29, 31, and 31 points in their past four road games. Jimmy Graham returns to Seattle knowing the Seahawks are allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points against TE's this season. Advantage Seattle. The Packers are allowing opposing QB's throw for a 106.6 passer rating (25th) in road games. On the flip side, the Seahawks are holding opposing QB's to an 80.8 passer rating (7th) in home tilts. Seattle is ranked 19 spots higher in team defense at Football Outsiders and should enjoy a huge edge in special teams play. The home team is 8-2 SU on Thursday nights this season. The Seahawks are 7-3-1 ATS on Thursday's since 1993. Take the hungry host!

10*Seattle Seahawks +10

Largest underdog role for Russell Wilson in his career. This line is inflated and will be going down for sure. Seattle was one dropped pass from a potential tie at the end of regulation last week against the LA Chargers. They would have needed a 2-point conversion as well. The Seahawks already played the Rams tough this year losing by just two points. Seattle has a real defense, allowing 333.3 yards per game compare to 348.7 for the Rams. The Seahawks are ranked 5th in team defense while the Rams are ranked 16th at Football Outsiders. Seattle is holding opposing QB's to an 83 passer rating while the Rams are allowing opposing QB's to a 94.4 passer rating. Don't forget, the Rams have cluster injuries at Linebacker and have played back-to-back emotional games against Green Bay and New Orleans. Finally, I wonder just how much "gas" is left in the Rams' tank. They haven't had a BYE yet. Seattle had its BYE two weeks ago. I love double-digit division underdogs with same season revenge. Especially, with a Top 10 QB. Take the road dog plus the generous 10 points!

4*Cleveland Browns +5

4*Cincinnati Bengals +6

5*Seattle Seahawks -1

This will be the Seahawks first home game since the unfortunate passing of their owner, Paul Allen. Expect a very emotional crowd. Seattle is 4-1 SU in their past five games with the only loss by just 2 points against the unbeaten LA Rams. The Seahawks love playing at home where they are 54-18 SU since 2010. Seattle is ranked #2 in team defense while LAC is ranked #18 at Football Outsiders. The Chargers offense had been rolling, but the BYE week tends to regress those returning teams back to the mean. The Chargers are ranked dead last in Special teams play at Football Outsiders. These teams are cashing 35% when playing in Seattle. Take the Seahawks!

5*Minnesota Vikings -4

The Vikings deserved a better fate last week after outgaining the Saints by 153 yards in the 10-point home loss. Now the Vikings are home again knowing they haven't defeated the Lions at home since 9/20/15. Minnesota is holding opposing QB's to a 91.2 (13th) passer rating while the Lions are allowing opposing QB's earn a 114.2 (31st) passer rating. The Vikings are ranked 13th in team defense while the Lions are ranked 30th at Football Outsiders. The Vikings offense is ranked 18th while the Lions are ranked 26th. Don't forget, Detroit just traded their leading receiver in Golden Tate. The rest of the guys can't be happy with that. Detroit played a very physical game last week. NFL teams are 1-4 ATS after playing the Seattle Seahawks this season.

4*Minnesota Vikings -105 (money line)

I feel like the Saints are overvalued in this spot after what happened between these two teams last postseason. The Vikings are at home (15-5 SU L20) where they have been dynamite, the Bills game notwithstanding. Minnesota is ranked 13th in passer rating against (91) while the Saints are ranked 31st (112.2) at Football Outsiders. Wow! Not surprisingly, the Vikings have the better overall defense too. The Vikings will be pumped-up for this prime time affair and should be favored by 2 points. Take the home team!

4*Green Bay Packers +9.5

This line seems high to me. Green Bay has two weeks to prepare and get healthy. Aaron Rogers has never been an underdog by this many points. You don't think he knows. He does. The Packers are ranked #9 in time of possession. They should be able to shorten the game and limit the Rams' possessions. Both teams have big games next week. The Packers play at New England. The Rams fly to New Orleans. Take the road dog!

5*Denver Broncos +10

The Broncos will have three extra days to get healthy and prepare for this same-season revenge game. In Week 4, Denver was leading 23-13 with 12:47 left in the 4th quarter, and than proceeded to lose the game by four points. The Chiefs offense looks unstoppable right now. But, 10 points to a team that has some favorable stats and has seen KC already. Love it. The Broncos are ranked 6th in passer rating against (85.4). That's a real stat when handicapping NFL games in 2018. Denver should be able to move the ball against this Chiefs' defense. The Broncos offensive line is ranked #7, while the Chiefs offensive line is ranked #19 at Football Outsiders. Denver defense #8, Chiefs defense #26. Denver is ranked #10 in net yards per play (5.9) with KC #1 (6.9). Yes, the Chiefs stop unit looked great last week, but that's against Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Cincinnati is a dumpster fire in prime time games with Dalton. This is a double-digit same-season division revenge game before Week 10. These teams are cashing 79% over the past decade. It doesn't happen often though so get down ASAP. I am pretty sure this line will close under 10.

4*Washington Redskins -1.5

4*Baltimore Ravens -2.5

5*Carolina Panthers +5

These two teams played last season but the Panthers are running a new offense. The Panthers should have an edge schematically. Carolina is ranked higher than the Eagles in all the important analytical stats I look for. The Panthers have played well (5-1 ATS past six years) in the second game after their BYE week. Carolina is coming off a loss despite outgaining the Redskins. The Eagles are coming off a win despite getting outgained 401-379. Take the road dog!

10*Denver Broncos +7

The Rams will be playing back-to-back road games with this one at altitude. Denver is returning home after a non-effort against the Jets and should be fired up after losing three straight. If any team is familiar with the Rams' defense and how to attack them it should be Denver, as Wade Phillips spent many years running the Broncos' defense. The Rams haven't played in Denver since 2010. Light snow and temps around 30 degrees in the forecast. Rams not accustomed to those conditions. I'm all over the Broncos in this spot.

5*Indianapolis Colts +2.5

The Colts have 10 days to prepare for the Jets who are coming off a blowout victory against the Broncos. The Colts have a real pass rush (5th in Sacks) going up against a Jets team that is ranked 20th in pass protection. Andrew Luck has been solid off a blowout loss as an underdog in his career. Take the Colts in this upset maker!

5*Oakland Raiders +6

This line feels inflated to me, especially considering the Raiders' defense is comparable to LAC on a net yards per play basis (6.9 to 6.5). Actually, the Raiders' defense has a better QB rating against figure than the home team. Oakland could be the host as the stadium will have its share of of Raider fans. Oakland has been waiting for this matchup as the Chargers swept the season series last year. Both teams are not getting to the QB much as the Chargers have 8 sacks while Oakland has 5. The Chargers are ranked #31 in special teams while the Raiders are ranked #19 at Football Outsiders. Oakland is being undervalued so far this season. The Chargers are nicked up on the offensive line. Take the points with Oakland and its 2nd-ranked offense at 442 yards per game. I wouldn't be shocked if this line closes at less than five.

5*Buffalo Bills +3.5

In the NFL, teams are not as bad or good as they look the week before. This has to be a trap line where the oddsmakers are begging you to play the chalk. The Bills return home after getting shutout while the Titans just defeated the defending Super Bowl champions in dramatic upset fashion. These teams are just 13-41 SU in the very next game. The Bills defense is sneaky good allowing 5.3 net yards per play, while the Titans are allowing 5.7 net yards per play. Tennessee has been outgained in eight of their past nine games dating back to last season. When the Titans defeated Jacksonville they were just +1 yard better in the stats. They have played back-to-back physical games and this has upset written all over it. Take the Bills!

4*New York Giants +3.5

4*Arizona Cardinals +3.5

5*Chicago Bears -3

This will the Buccaneers longest road trip so far this season and they have fewer days to prepare. The Bears are ranked #1 in total defense while the Bucs are ranked #29 at Football Outsiders. Chicago is ranked 10 spots higher in overall team efficiency. The Bears will have a huge advantage in special teams as well. There are distractions with Winston coming back so that means Fitzpatrick took less reps in practice. Tampa Bay has played three high-scoring games to begin the season and this feels like a flat spot to me. Take the Bears!

4*Indianapolis Colts +7

4*San Francisco 49ers +7

4*Washington Redskins +3.5

5*Indianapolis Colts +6

The Colts are my top selection in the Wise Guys contest. Love them in this spot. The Colts allowed the Bengals three scores in the final 19 minutes otherwise this line would be closer to 4.5 points. The Colts have an underrated front 7 in my opinion and they outgained the Bengals 380-330 last week. Washington defeated a team that is projected to be one of the worst. The Redskins ran 75 plays and you want to fade NFL favorites that run 70+ plays off a win. I know for a fact the oddsmakers inflated this line on purpose. The Colts with Andrew Luck at QB are a sparkling 10-1 ATS as underdogs when playing off a loss.

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -4

I don't play favorites in the NFL very often but this should be a great spot for the home team. The Steelers had a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter against the Browns and only managed a tie. I had Cleveland as a service selection so I was happy with that result. The Steelers committed 6 turnovers and I believe they will be extremely focused in their home opener. The public always remembers what they saw last and that's why this line has come down from the opening number of Steelers -5.5. At one high-limit sportsbook 82% of the bets are on Kansas City. They are pounding the Chiefs while the Wise Guys are all over Pittsburgh. I don't think this line will dip below 4. It might go back up though. The Steelers are 51-33 ATS as home chalk of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Take the black and gold! 

4*Cleveland Browns +6

4*Houston Texans +7

5*New York Giants +3

The Giants should be much improved with new head coach Pat Shurmur running the show. The big handicap in this game is simple. The Jaguars have no clue what type of offense the Giants will be implementing. On the flip side, the Jaguars like to run the ball early and often thus making them kinda predictable. Take the home dog!

4*Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Yes the Vikings have a terrific defense, but don't sleep on this Eagles squad. Philadelphia has the #1 ranked front 7 according to Football Outsiders. Minnesota is ranked 13th. The Vikings played seven true road games (one in London where the crowd was cheering for them) that produced just a +2 point differential. To that point, they are ranked 21st in Net yards per play on the road. Minnesota is coming off an emotional miracle victory, and I wonder just how much pep they will have. I like the Eagles who are in the same exact spot as last week. A home team getting points in playoffs. Almost unheard of. Take Philly!

5*New Orleans Saints +5

This is a rematch from week one when the Vikings defeated New Orleans 29-19 as 3-point road underdogs. Sam Bradford and Dalvin Cook played big roles so that game is meaningless. New Orleans has gone 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS in revenge games of late. The Saints are ranked 1st in Net Yards per play (6.3) while the Vikings are averaging 5.4 Net Yards per play, which ranks 12th. We get the QB (Drew Brees) and head coach with significant more postseason experience. Sean Payton is 7-4 SU in the postseason, including a Super Bowl victory in 2009. Mike Zimmer is 0-1. The Saints are ranked 1st in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. The Vikings are ranked 4th. The Saints have the better numbers in five of the remaining six key analytical stats. New Orleans is also ranked higher in time of possession, red zone efficiency, and the kicking game. This is a classic overlay. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +3

The Falcons played a very physical game last week and now must travel once again. Tough. This line would be Eagles -3.5 if Carson Wenztz was the starting QB. Yes he's the read deal, but Nick Foles has a lot of experience and his career QB rating is just six points lower than Matt Ryan. The Eagles have a strong running game (132.2 ypg) going up against a defense that is allowing 105 rushing ypg. The Falcons stop side is allowing a passer rating against of 88.4, which ranks last of the remaining playoff teams. Keep in mind, the Falcons are 6-12 ATS in all playoff games since 1993, including 1-6 ATS off an upset victory. Atlanta is ranked #15 in Overall Team Efficiency while the Eagles are ranked 5th at Football Outsiders. The Eagles are also ranked 5th in overall defense while the Falcons are ranked #22. Philadelphia is allowing just 211 passing yards per contest at home. Take the hungry and undervalued Eagles!

5*Carolina Panthers +7

These teams are very familiar with one another, and digging through the analytics I see some value on the underdog. The Panthers defense is ranked 7th at Football Outsiders while the Chiefs are ranked 30th. That's a big difference and consider the Panthers are allowing just 88 rushing yards per game, going against the Saints who like to run early. Carolina is ranked just eight spots lower than KC in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. It's also very difficult for a team (Saints) to defeat the same team (Panthers) three times in a given season. Carolina is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as underdogs. I'll take the points in this upset special!

5*Tennessee Titans +9

I think this line way too high. The Titans are allowing less yards per game and per play than the chalky Chiefs. The game will be played in freezing conditions and both teams will be playing a run first, pass late offense. The Titans have really good players on the offensive and defensive lines. Marcus Mariota will be able to pick up some key first downs with his running ability. Tennessee is much superior at stopping the run. Wild Card underdogs of 7 or more points with the better defense are cashing 66% over the past five seasons. This is a must take!

4*San Francisco 49ers +4.5

5*Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

This one is quite simple for me. I believe the Bengals will play extremely hard in the last home game that Marvin Lewis will coach in. The Lions are a dome team having to play in very cold conditions where the kickoff temp is expected to be in the mid 30s. The Bengals are 7-1 ATS as home underdogs in December under Lewis. Take the Cats!

4*Tennessee Titans +7

10*Houston Texans +11.5

I have upgraded the Texans now that T. J. Yates will be under Center. Yates is 5-0 ATS in his career as an underdog and he played well in relief last week. Jacksonville is coming off a big win against the Seahawks last Sunday. Division home favorites are just 3-15 ATS after facing Seattle under Pete Carroll. This is a rematch from week one when the Jags crushed Houston 29-7. We note that Jacksonville benefited from a 4-0 turnover margin, while only gaining 280 total yards. The Texans remember how bad they played and have been waiting for this one. Also, double digit division underdogs are cashing close to 70% if they lost the first meeting by more than 20 points over the past decade. Jacksonville has played the fifth easiest schedule in all of football. Finally, the Jags have a huge revenge game against the Titans next week from a week two 37-16 home loss. Take the road dog!

4*Arizona Cardinals +3

4*Carolina Panthers +3

4*New York Giants +4

5*Seattle Seahawks +6

The Eagles are 10-1 SU which looks really good. However, nine of those 10 victories have come against teams with currently a losing record. The Seahawks have lost their past two home games so I would expect a big time effort in this spot. Seattle has a Net Yards per play of 5.9 at home while the Eagles check in at 5.8 Net Yards per play on the road. The Eagles held the Bears to a 38.3 passer rating last week. In the last seven times an NFL team has held their opponent to a passer rating of 40 or below, six of those teams have lost the game outright. This line would suggest that the Seahawks would be 12-point underdogs if this game was in Philly. No way that would happen. This line should be closer to 4.5 points. Lastly, the Seahawks are 17-9 ATS as home underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Take the hungry host!

4*LA Rams -120 (money line)

The Saints are coming off an emotional come-from-behind win against the Redskins last week. New Orleans hasn't played any game this season were the game time temp was above 75 degrees outdoors. The game time temp will be close to 80 and the Saints are more accustomed to playing indoors. The Saints home/road splits suggest they are much better at home or in a dome. The Rams are coming off a loss and they have been at their best in this role in 2017. The Rams' defense is holding opposing QB's to a 74.3 rating, which ranks 3rd. Also, teams off an overtime victory in which they scored 30 or more points, have been a great play against (14-3 ATS) if they play on the road against a winning team.

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10

Tampa Bay has been solid on the road this season with a 5.7 net yards per play. My power rankings would make Atlanta 7-point chalk. The Buccaneers are ranked 25th in overall team efficiency while the Falcons are ranked 17th according to Football Outsiders. This line would reflect the Falcons ranking in the top 10. I believe this line is inflated so lets take the double digit points in this huge rivalry game. 

3*Dallas Cowboys +2.5

5*Chicago Bears +3

The key handicap to this game is a clear one. The Bears rushing attack (121.8 per game) going up against a defense that is ranked No. 32 in stopping the run at Football Outsiders. The Lions won last week 38-24, despite getting outgained by 68 yards against Cleveland. The Lions are ranked No. 32 in run-blocking and 23rd in pass protection. The Bears can't wait for this game. The host is ranked 4th in sacks and their defensive line is ranked 2nd overall at Football Outsiders. The forecast calls for temps in the low 30s and a tad breezy. The Lions won't be accustomed to those conditions. Detroit is 8-14 SU & 6-15 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1993. John Fox has been solid in his career after losing two or more games. Take the Bears in this upset maker!