Rating: 3 Unit PAC-12 Pounding

Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal is in a tough spot here, going 1-5 SUATS the last six games as a dog of 6 or fewer points when seeking revenge. And with late season coach-poaching currently in high gear (Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly to LSU, Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley to USC), who knows if Cristobal will be lured away by the promise of a bigger payday before this game
even kicks off? We’re pretty secure in the knowledge that Utah’s Whittingham won’t be going anywhere after finishing up his 17th season by the Great Salt Lake, and he owns a 22-12 ATS mark against foes with a better record when the Utes sport a .500 or greater record, including 8-1 ATS against avenging foes. With Utah out-gaining foes by an average of 108 YPG this season, and QB Rising managing games while making very few mistakes, we don’t need a crystal ball to see that Cristobal and his Ducks are going down again.

Rating: 3 Unit

Conference USA title game from San Antonio. This spread has been bobbing up and down between 2.5-3 all day, so let's grab 2.5 now in case it stays at 3. WKU lost a shootout at home to UTSA earlier this season and this one is on the Roadrunners' field, but the Hilltoppers have been dominating every opponent since then. All seven wins during WKU’s streak have been by at least 15 points, with the average margin of victory at 26.4. Bailey Zappe is having one of the best seasons ever by an FBS quarterback. UTSA, meanwhile, has looked sluggish in its past three games (0-3 ATS) and did lose its finale. Maybe the Roadrunners were simply coasting, but I'll take the hot team.

Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day

There is not a whole lot on the line in this game for the Bruins – they have qualified for a bowl game (but cannot reach the Pac-12 title game), and they are still basking in the glow of their 62-33 destruction of arch-rival USC. Also, consider that they are 0-6-1 ATS after taking on the Trojans, 0-5-1 ATS in Game Twelve, and 1-7 ATS as home chalk of less than 10 points. Therefore, this becomes the ideal spot for the Bears, who still need a pair of wins (although next week doesn’t matter unless they score a victory here) to earn their bowl stripes. On top of that, they have owned this series spread-wise, going 12-4-1 ATS as a dog, and overall are 6-0 ATS as road dogs of 10 or fewer points. In addition, the Bears are 21-8 ATS as an underdog with head coach Justin Wilcox, including 7-0 ATS when the Bears own a losing record.

Rating: 5 Unit  Big-12 Game of the Week

Okies a step behind normally overpowering "O", with 3 take aways greasing skids for escape vs Iowa St (25-15 first down & 362-306 yard deficits). Oklahoma St "D" has been immovable, ranking 3rd, 4th, & 2nd in total, rushing, scoring. A 165-23 pt edge L4 tilts. Repaying 6 straight losses. Consider as well that playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980

Rating 5 UnitsBig-10 Game of the Week

Our numbers for this game clearly put the Spartans at a disadvantage, including a 0-5 ATS mark after playing Ohio State, and a 0-4 home record against the number when they have conference revenge. On the flip side, regardless of the outcome of this game, neither team can improve or regress in the standings of the Big Ten East Division when the 7-4 / 4-4 Lions invade East Lansing to take on the 9-2 / 6-2 Spartans. With that being the case, you know it’s a much more important result for PSU as far as bowl positioning is concerned. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in LRGs, as well as 4-1 ATS away versus conference revenge. PSU’s 26thranked defense (335 YPG) is also leagues better than MSU’s 119th rated stop-unit (463 YPG)... and therein lies your edge. Consider as well that Penn State head coach James Franklin is 30-4 SU and 27-7 ATS in games when coming off a win versus an opponent coming off a loss, including 14-2 SU and 15-1 ATS versus greater-than .400 foes.

Rating: 2 Units

OSU HC Day is  33-3 SU and 21-14-1 ATS in all games, including 24-0 SU and 16-8 ATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season, as well as 12-0 SU and 8-3-1 ATS away. As for today’s all-the-marbles matchup, Ohio State is 7-1 ATS of late as road chalk of 8 or fewer points (check line), while Michigan owns a dreadful 0-8-1 ATS mark as a conference home dog of 10 or less points. We could go on, but with Harbaugh just 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS as a dog against .900 or greater opponents, Michigan will be little more than a speed bump at the Big House, as the Buckeyes barrel towards the Big Ten title game, and a spot in the CFB Playoff.

Rating: 5 Unit  Upset of the Week

Wake has limped to the barn at the end of the season many times, 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS, and a frightening 0-5 SUATS versus teams coming off a SUATS loss. The Demon Deacons are also 3-12 ATS in the back half of back-to-back conference roadies. Meanwhile the Boston Brawlers are 5-0 ATS as conference road dogs of 4 or more, 15-3 ATS versus conference opponents they defeated in a most recent meeting, as well as 8-3 ATS vs .800 or greater vs. conference opponents. They have thrived since QB Phil Jurevic returned. Consider that playing on  any .500 or greater college football conference home dog coming off one loss-exact if they lost SU as a favorite from Game Seven out if they allow 24.5 or fewer PPG and they average more than 120 rushing yards per game if they are facing an .800 or greater opponent that allows 17.5 or more PPG who won fewer than 12 games last season is 15-0 ATS since 1980. Wake Forest needs a M-U-S-T W-I-N, but we see U-P-S-E-T instead.

Rating: 2 Units

The oddsmakers have installed Washington State as the favorite in this game, despite the fact they are 1-7 ATS as a favorite in this series, as well as 3-13 SU in their last sixteen games at Husky Stadium. At 4-7, the only place Washington is going is home after this contest, but there is no better incentive for a bitter rival than to dress up as the underdog at home – and put a pin in the balloon of its hated rival. Meanwhile, UDub sports the nation’s No. 20 overall defense, one that is 69 YPG superior than its adversary, and the Huskies are 6-1 SUATS as home dogs of fewer than 2.5 points. Yes, WSU had gone 3-1 ATS away this year when seeking revenge, but that number is trumped by Washington’s red-hot 6-0 SUATS series run.

Rating: 2 Units

We like fading teams off record-setting performances, and with the Pac-12 title game on deck for Utah, we figure head coach Kyle Whittingham will go vanilla here before tangling with Oregon, Oregon State or Washington State. Helping Colorado’s chances is the Utes’ mediocre 3-8 ATS effort in their last eleven games against .333 or less conference opponents. Conflicting trends show the Buffs are 0-5 ATS in recent series results, but 4-1 ATS as dogs of more than 14 points in the final game of the season. In addition, coach Dorrell is 23-12 ATS when taking points, including 11-3 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win. The bottom line is Utah will be content with a ‘W’ while the Buffaloes have plenty of room to roam inside the 24-point impost

Rating: 2 Units

Last year at this time the Chanticleers were undefeated and clinched a perfect regular season with a road win-no-cover at Troy, but they were denied an opportunity to win a Sun Belt title game when it was postponed due to COVID. This year, they take a 9-2 ledger into Mobile as they will once again be spectators for the conference title bout. With it, they may find it difficult getting up for an opponent that is riding an 0-3 SUATS streak. There will be no shortage of incentive for the 5-6 Jags, though, as they’re looking to pick up a win to become bowl-eligible, after going 9-26 SU the previous three seasons. A 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS record in lined home gams since joining the FBS, including three SU underdog wins the last four years, catches our fancy. With CCU still warm and fuzzy from sending the seniors off in Conway last week, we’ll back a starving dog in South Alabama that stands a perfect 6-0 ATS of late as a home dog of 7 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

While the Pirates are 2-10 ATS versus undefeated conference opponents, they
are playing their best ball of the season – riding a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS streak – and should be considered as dangerous as a ship full of cutthroat thieves, especially with Cincinnati just 1-6 ATS of late as a road favorite of 8 or more points. The Bearcats absolutely destroyed ECU in the Queen City last year, 55-17, so head coach Mike Houston and his Pirates should be primed for payback in their final home game of 2021. Factor in that the series host is on a 5-0 ATS streak, and that East Carolina is currently 4-0 ATS as a home dog of more than seven points, and we look for UC to have its timbers shivered in an uncomfortably close contest.

Rating: 2 Units

New Mexico will be scoreboard watching, only the Lobos will be looking at the time remaining in this game, so they can finally call an end to a miserable 3-9 season. The campaign started with some degree of promise at 2-0, but those wins came against Houston Baptist and New Mexico state, and a step up in class resulted in a 1-8 SU slide. Even worse, if we throw out the Houston Baptist game, UNM has torched the money big-time this year, going 1-9 ATS.  Meanwhile, Utah State should be mad as hell after getting ambushed by the Wyoming Cowboys last week, losing 44-17 as 6-point chalk, and the Aggies have cashed four straight tickets in the series. And with USU head coach Blake Anderson now 23-3 SU and 18-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite, the likelihood of an upset is next to nil

Rating: 3 Units

Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in this series of late when coming off a SUATS loss, they’re also an impressive 6-0-1 ATS as road favorites or road dogs of 3 or less points. Head coach Chris Klieman does not suffer SUATS losses lightly, going 6-1 ATS in his last seven tries in that role. Coach K also boasts an 11-3 SU and 10-2 ATS mark versus .500 or fewer foes, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS the last eight. And we can’t forget last year’s horrific 69-31 loss to Texas, especially with the Horns now 3-8 ATS at home versus a revenging conference opponent. We can almost hear the “Bring Back Herman” chants as you read this. Consider that college Football teams on a 6-game-exact losing streak are 3-22 SU and 8-15 ATS at home in their final game of the regular season, including 0-5 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of fewer than 3 points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulldogs find themselves in another payback situation tonight, falling in last year’s Egg Bowl, 31-24. That works well with the Rebels’ money-burning 3-8 ATS record when taking on foes playing with conference revenge. Ole Miss has ridden the Lane Train to an impressive 9-2 SU record this season, but head coach Kiffin is only 3-10 ATS in games with the better record when coming off consecutive wins. And in case you missed Mississippi State’s win over Auburn, you missed a totally unflappable coach in Leach, never losing his cool despite his team starting in a 28-3 hole, then ripping off 40 unanswered points to beat the Tigers, 43-34. In tonight’s annual slugfest between two of the seven SEC teams dotting the College Football Playoff Rankings, we’ll stick with Professor Leach and MSU’s 13-1 ATS success in the second of back-to-back home games.

Rating: 2 Units

OSU’s tough-as-nails defense has limited five foes to a season low yardage, including each of the last three games. The Pokes are ranked third in the country in Total Defense (4.58 yards per play allowed), are tied with Marshall for the top spot in Sacks (37), and allow just 14.8 fi rst downs per contest (ranked 5th). They held TCU QB Chandler Morris to just 103 yards passing in Saturday’s 63-17 win, one week after Morris lit up Baylor for 461 yards. Consider that the 'Pokes are getting better by the week, as 9-0 ATS & 10-1 SU runs attest.

Rating: 3 Units

Kyle Whittingham has made Utah a West Coast powerhouse, and no fun to play at all, but despite his great work over the years, Kyle is just 10-18 ATS versus .900 or greater opponents, including 2-11 ATS as the favorite. Oregon won at Ohio State earlier this year, and winning a game at the Horseshoe is a Get Out of Jail Free card in our minds. Ducks’ Head Coach Mario Cristobal, the dream candidate in the hearts of Miami Hurricanes fans hyperventilating to replace Manny Diaz, is 6-1 SUATS away versus .700 or greater foes. Much like Baron Von Raschke applying the Claw to another helpless opponent in the ring. Consider that Cristobal is 32-12 SU in games with the better record, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog.

Rating: 2 Units

Back-to-back SUATS losses to a pair of I’s (Illinois and Iowa) have knocked the boat-rowers out of the water; however, IU presents a great chance to get the oars in the water again. The Hoosiers have had a miserable fall after 2020. Indiana stands 2-8 / 0-7, including 0-4 ITS (In the Stats) in the last four games, and are surrendering 192 YPG more than what they gained. IU has gone bowling the last two seasons, and this season they will also have time to go bowling, play bocce, and fi nd out if Mike Woodson is the right choice for Hoosiers hoops. It’s not an easy fi x for Hoosier football, and we don’t have the solution here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ITS (In the Stats) in their last six games, after beginning the season holding opponents to seasonlow or second low yardage in the fi rst six. Iowa is also a shaky 2-9 ATS as a conference home favorite of more than 10 points, and are 1-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games. In the blue corner we have the Illini, who are 4-1 ATS on the road after a bye. Dick Butkus’ alma mater is also 7-2 ATS as a conference road dog of 17 or fewer points. While Iowa is leaking oil, our very own “impervious to leaks” Well Oiled Machine says 4-6 teams coming off a win, while taking double digits in Game Eleven of the season, are a Chunky Soup hearty 35-20-1 ATS since 1980,

4* Big-12 Play of the Day

Iowa State is a solid 5-1 ATS away with conference revenge, and 4-1 ATS as dogs of less than 10 points. Meanwhile, the deflated Sooners have the look of “bubble burst” written all over them after falling to the Baylor Bears, and we’ll look for the Clones to stick another pin in their balloon today, especially since Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS at home in this series when coming off a SU favorite loss. The Sooners are also 6-10 ATS in games when coming off their first loss of the season, including 2-7 ATS versus foes who allow fewer than 23 PPG. ISU head coach Matt Campbell going against teams coming off an upset loss, is 6-0 ATS as a dog when facing an opponent that was upset as a favorite, as well as 8-2 ATS in games when his team was upset. Also, playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 since 1980.

5* MWC Game of the Week

The Wolf Pack is yet another team that appears to have hit the wall, going 2-2 the past four games following a 5-1 start to the season. Nevada is also 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS as a dog or as a favorite of fewer than 4 points versus military teams. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun checks in with a 10-4 ATS mark as a dog against foes with an identical record. Consider as well, that .700 teams playing in Game 11 pretty much have their holiday bowl plans in the making, it is also a major letdown time for these teams dressing up without rest as contented home favorites in these contests. That’s confirmed by the fact that these chalk artists are just 74-82-1 ATS (47%) in this role since 1980. And when these teams are coming off a loss and facing .500 or greater opponents, they fall to 11-26 ATS. Worse, these teams tumble to 1-14 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals annihilated Syracuse at home last week, 41-3, and will win their 2021 golden bowl ticket by dropping another ‘L’ on the Duke tonight. The 5-5 Cards are relieved to see the Blue Devils here with Kentucky on deck, as they’ve torched the Devils in each of their only other two meetings in this series, winning both games by an average score of 32-9. We certainly can’t go into battle against that armed only with Duke’s near-lifeless 0-19 SU and 7-12 ATS mark as a 20-point or larger home dog.

Rating: 2 Units

When Eastern Michigan hosts Western Michigan in Mac action tonight they will do so knowing the eagles are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in Last Home Games when not coming off a double-digit loss and hosting a foe coming off a spread loss.  EMU is also 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS on Tuesdays in conference play, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog. With the visiting Broncos riding a 0-4 ATS losing skid as favorites on Tuesdays in MAC games, we're going with EMU tonight.

Rating: 3 Units

It’s true the Terps have pitched a no-no in conference games this season (0-6 ATS), but head coach Mike Locksley is 2-0 ATS in his career in games against foes coming off a SU favorite loss – and a hard loss it was, as the Spartans had their undefeated “bubble burst” in the loss at Purdue. Despite Michigan State’s surprising success in 2021, the Spartans are just 1-6 ATS as Big Ten chalk of more than seven points, and 2-7 ATS at home versus conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Terps have cashed in three of their last four games against MSU, and the visitor in this series is on a 3-0 ATS run. Consider that playing againts any CFB favorite who started the season 7-0 or better, coming off its inital loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28 or more points if they are facing a conference opponent is 11-2 ATS since 1980..

Rating: 5 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week

Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin brings is a 13-23 SU and 16-20 ATS career mark into games against opponents with a better win percentage, including 5-11 SU and 4-12 ATS versus .875 or greater foes. This will mark the fourth time in the last five years these two teams will meet as ranked teams, so neither side should find the stage too large. However, to Michigan’s credit, the Maize-and-Blue did not buckle beneath the weight of the “bubble burst” following the contested loss against Sparty, methodically grinding out a 29-7 win over Indiana last Saturday, holding the Hoosiers to just 195 total yards. The feeling here is the Wolverines are the better team, and they’ll be out to avenge a season-ending home loss to the Lions last year, one that denied them a .500 campaign. Consider that Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is 40-8
SU and 30-18 ATS when coming off a win and owning the better record, including 10-1 SUATS when facing greater than .600 opponents.

Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day

OU is still unbeaten but not ATS under Riley, instead they’re a middling 9-14 in that category. There is one Jimmy the Greek style checkmark in the Sooners column, a powerful 14-2 ATS mark as road chalk of 8 or fewer. BU is coming off a surprise loss to TCU last week but in their series with OU, Da Bears are 3-0 ATS in the last three and 7-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a loss. In conference revenge games, Baylor is a sturdy 10-2 ATS, plus, BU is 20-5 SUATS in Waco since 2011 against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS as the dog. It’s only the eighth time in this long series both teams have been ranked, all of them since 2011, and OU is 4-3. Consider that since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Nine out facing .700 or greater opponents are just 49-50 SU and 40-57-3 (41.2%). Say hello to Oklahoma. Worse, these same guys have seen their necks snap like they’re swinging from the gallows pole when they’re installed as road favorites of 4 or more points, falling to 14-31 ATS. And when installed as favorites of 4 or more points when coming off a win of 20 or more points, they drop to 16-13 SU and SU and 7-22 ATS in these games, including 6-7 SU and 1-12 ATS against foes that were favored by more than 7 points in their last game

Rating: 2 Units

A check of the ATS archives reveals a lot of Carolina blue goose eggs: 0-5 ATS Weekdays, 0-5 ATS after Wake Forest, and 0-5 ATS before a non-conference home game. Remember, teams who knock off a 7-0 or greater opponent are just 40-60-3 ATS when on the road the next game, including 1-9 ATS the past two seasons. And when this year’s Tar Heels don’t win, they don’t cover, as all four of their losses were both SU and ATS. We fully expect another shootout tonight between Pitt QB Kenny Pickett and UNC QB Sam Howell, but with both of Pitt’s previous SU losses taking place at Heinz Field, the Panthers have extra incentive to make amends with a strong performance here. With Pittsburgh boasting a 6-1 ATS log in Weekday games, we're siding with the Panthers.

Rating: 4 Unit CFB Upset of the Day

UTEP battled back from a 28-10 4Q deficit to fall, 28-25, at Florida Atlantic last week, but at 6-2 this season, the Miners will be bowling for the fi rst time since 2014. Why, you ask? Because they are 7-1 ITS (In The Stats), winning the stats by +100 YPG, and are 4-2 ATS as double-digit pups over the past two seasons. Will another double-digit dog pull an upset this week? A total of 34 FBS games have fallen into that category this season and this has a strong possibility of being another.  Consider as well that playing against any 7-0 or greater college football dog road favorite coming off a week of rest if they are facing a .444 or greater opponent that is not coming off a win of 7 or more points is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week

The 5-3 Boilermakers are 6-2 ITS (In The Stats) this season, winning the stats by an average of 72 net YPG. They beat a Top 10-ranked Iowa team three weeks ago, and are looking to do the same here today. Consider this: the Spartans are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in post-Michigan meetings in which they managed to score 30 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in games in which MSU allows more than 20 PPG. They are also 1-5 SUATS after taking on UM in games in which they coughed up 30-plus points. Can you spell L-E-T-D-O-W-N? Also consider that playing against any college football road favorite who won SU as an underdog against a 5-0 or better opponent in its last game is o 4-20 ATS in this role from Game Seven out. And if this is a conference game, they drop to 3-18 ATS.

Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Mismatch

On the heels of back-to-back wins, call this a crucial game for the 3-5
/ 2-3 Bears, who have fared quite well as a visitor under head coach
Justin Wilcox, going 7-0 ATS on the highway when coming off a win. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have been dominated by the Bears in this series, at just 7-19 ATS, including 1-9 ATS when the Bears own a losing record. Zona is 0-8 on the season in Jedd Fisch’s first year, and while they hung tough at USC last week, losing 41-34, they have surrendered season-high yardage in two of
their last three games.

Rating: 3 Units

North Carloina takes the field here with a 22-38 ATS mark versus undefeated opponents, including 0-7 SUATS after allowing 35 or more points in his team’s previous game. The inconsistent Heels have won back-to-back games just once this year, but to their credit, they have not lost two consecutive games, either. That starts today as you consider that Head coach Dave Clawson is 24-12 ATS against conference foes without a winning record, including 5-0 ATS when his team sports a .800 or greater win percentage.

Rating: 5 UnitCFB Game of the Week

The 44-37 defeat was the first loss of the season for SMU, and Dykes now runs into another prolific passing attack in Memphis, ranked 18th in the nation (296 YPG). He is also 4-11 ATS as conference road chalk, including 0-4 ATS versus greater than .333 opponents. Meanwhile, Memphis had covered six straight times in this series until getting nipped last season, 30-27, on a field goal at the final gun. That sets up a conference revenge situation for the Tigers, a role in which they are 4-1 ATS at home. In addition, at 4-4 on the season, Ryan Silverfield’s squad is battling to earn a bowl bid for the eighth year in a row. A win today will help, and so does the fact that SMU is 2-9 ATS as a conference road favorite of 17 or fewer points, including 0-4 ATS from Game Nine out. Better yet, playing against any CFB favorite who started the season 7-0 or better, coming off its initial loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28 or more points if they are facing a conference opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day

The Huskies have taken care of business in this series, going 4-1-1 ATS off a win when Stanford is coming off a loss of 3 or more points. Washington is also 4-1 ATS as a conference dog coming off a SU win and a double-digit ATS loss. Those situations were all set up by an embarrassing first half (65 total yards and zero points) against Arizona, one of the very worst teams in the nation. This, very irritated Washington fans have been calling for back-up QB Sam Huard, but the truth is Dylan Morris got his act together just in time to pull out the win over the Cats. Still, this year’s 3-4 SU record indicates that Jimmy Lake is not the answer in Seattle. With the Huskies looking to avenge a pair of losses to Stanford over the past two seasons as double-digit favorites, we hand it off to the clincher where playing on any 17 or more returning starter college football dog with revenge coming off consecutive ATS losses if they are facing a sub .450 opponent coming off consecutive losses is 19-1 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 5 Unit SEC Game of the Week

Kentucky is 1-4 ATS coming off a bye week, and after this Starkville trip, they must still face Tennessee and Louisville, so any hopes of a Top 10 finish after that 6-0 start (last accomplished in 1977) are quickly fading away. As for the Starkville Bulldogs, last year’s horror show in Lexington came in the midst of a 4-game losing skid, as the Dogs dropped a 24-2 decision to the Cats, the second-lowest point production by a Mike Leach team in his career. Revenge is tasty, but so is the Halloween candy that the Mad Professor munches on yearly,
so there’s no doubt he should wake up to a plastic pumpkin full of candy corn and gummy bears tomorrow morning if he can pull off this upset. MSU has held four foes to season-low or second-low yards this season, but here’s what to consider that Leach is 4-2 SUATS at home off two previous home losses, including 3-0 SUATS if .500 or greater.

Rating: 3 Units

Florida had lost three straight in this rivalry until a big 44-28 win last year in Jacksonville. Both teams have had a bye to prepare this year, and I don’t think top-ranked Georgia is very happy about last year's loss. I also don’t think Florida is as bad as it showed in a 49-42 upset at LSU two weeks ago. I’m expecting the Gators' two QBs to have trouble, turn the ball over and the Dawgs to capitalize. Georgia has the nation's No. 1 defense, allowing only 6.6 ppg.

Rating: 3 Units Big-12 Game of the Week

Yes, Jim Harbaugh can call on revenge from last year’s 27-24 loss to the Spartans as 21-point home chalk, but the fact is Michigan has covered just once in its last five tries when playing with conference revenge. While the Wolverines have taken exceptional care of the football this season with only four turnovers in seven games, we look for a flying-all-over-the-field MSU ‘D’ to force a few key errors that turn the tide in their favor. With that, consider that Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS away versus undefeated opponents. In addition playing on any 5-0 or greater college football dog coming off a SUATS win if they are facing an undefeated opponent that is coming off a win of 24 or more points if they defeated the undefeated opponent ni their most recent meeting is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Units

Tulane comes in ranked 128th in three important defensive categories – Total D (493 YPG), Scoring D (42.9 PPG) and Passing Defense (300 YPG). Pretty horrible since there are only 130 teams! In fact, it’s been a very long time since the Green Wave traveled to Norman to open the season and gave the Sooners everything they could handle in a 5-point loss. Now they have dropped five straight contests, with a tidal wave of points allowed (40 or more in four of the five defeats), along with season high – or 2nd high – yards in those games. Consider that Tulane is 1-11 ATS at home coming off a conference loss of more than 28 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Tulsa shows up with a below .500 record, after five consecutive losses, both SU and against the spread. Tulsa has also dumped four straight ATS decisions on this field to Navy, and the series host is on an unlucky 1-7 ATS slide. Now in his 14th year with Navy and pulling down a salary of $2.3 million per season, Niumatalolo knows he can hang onto his job if the Midshipmen continue to play with the same intensity they displayed against the Bearcats. It won’t be easy: after tonight, Navy plays three of its final four games away from Annapolis versus Notre Dame, Temple, and Army. Regardless, we think Tulsa shouldn’t be laying double digits to the Middies here, especially with a playoff revenger against No. 2 Cincinnati waiting on deck. Take the points.