Rating: 2 Units

SMU is 1-5 ATS record as a dog of 7 or fewer points, and is 2-10 ATS playing in the second of back-to-back conference road games. Right on cue we see that Tulane is 6-1-1 ATS in the second of consecutive home games and a register-ringing 11-2 ATS as chalk of less than 6 points. It will be interesting to see how the Wave behaves following last week’s downer versus UCF. We feel a bounce back is in order.

Rating: 2 Units

Hard to believe head coach Thomas Hammock is winding up his 4th season with the Huskies. After last year’s 9-5 finish, NIU – who ranked No. 8 nationally in Returning Player Production and welcomed 18 starters back – was expecting more of the same in 2022. After ten games, Northern Illinois is just 3-7 SU. Consider that Miami Ohio is 8-0 ATS coming off a SU loss as a dog, and 6-1 ATS off a loss versus a foe off a win. You should also know Northern Illinois is a money-burning 1-7 ATS in the last eight get-togethers with Miami, and 0-7 ATS coming off an outright away win.

Rating: 3 Units

The Frogs are now at No. 4 in the nation, reaching 9-0 for the first time since 2010, a 13-0 season that ended with a Rose Bowl victory and No. 2 national ranking. To be honest, we’ve had these Frogs on our fade list often this season and have been eating crow trying to explain their uncanny ability to overcome second-half deficits during this campaign in four of their wins. However, to seal the deal, consider that 9-0 or greater underdogs are 11-2-1 ATS during the regular season when not coming off an ATS win of more than 11 points, including 6-0 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

MSU ranks 128th in rushing, averaging 80.7 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. Their dink and dunk passing attack averages just 6.5 yards per pass attempt, and they haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of their three losses. So do we think Georgia is on upset alert? Absolutely not. And if not, do we think Mississippi State tops that 17-point mark? Maybe if there’s a letdown. But Georgia doesn’t need to score much to cover even in that event. Mississippi State is vulnerable to the run, which Georgia will pound at, leading to timely downfield passing on occasion. Georgia has been held under 30 points just twice, further lending confidence to this spread.

Rating: 3 Units

Saban is 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2011 versus foes with a better record, including 5-1 ATS during the regular season, and don’t forget about the Saban’s 27-2 SU career mark in games against former assistants. So how is it the 2-loss Tide is installed as a double-digit favorite in this contest? For the answer, consider that playing on any AP Preseason No. 1 college team as a favorite off a SU favorite loss in their previous game is g 29-15 ATS mark (66%) in these games since 1980. Put them up against quality opposition (greater than .600) and they shoot up to 20-3 SU and 19-4 ATS in this role. Better yet, let these Preseason No. 1 squads enter this same game with a .900 or fewer win percentage on the season, they ratchet up to 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS.

ACC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Louisville has quietly stitched together a decent season after a terrible start and may be saving Scott Satterfi eld’s job. Satterfi is a solid 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS against teams coming off a spread loss of 19 or more points. UL is 4-0 SUATS in their last four. To tap it off playing against  any CFB home favorite of more than 4 points from Game Nine out coming off its first loss of the year as a favorite of 4 or more points if they are off a DD ATS loss and are facing a foe who allows 20.1 or fewer PPG is 11-0 ATS since 1982.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Arkansas is 13-6 SUATS at home when coming off a SU favorite loss to a conference foe, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog of fewer than 8 points. Also, Sam Pittman is 19-9-1 ATS overall in his career with the Hogs, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of 16 or fewer points. In addition, you need to realize that LSU is a horrendous 2-7 ATS as a road favorite of less than 15 points while coming off back-to-back home games. Also, road favorites who upset Alabama the previous week are also just 2-7 ATS in the following game since 1980 when coming off three consecutive wins, including 0-5 ATS when they own a win percentage of greater than .750 on the season. Sure, Jayden Daniels has improved greatly, as has the Tiger defense, but Pittman’s crew will be up to the challenge. Finally, Arkansas is 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss in this series.

Rating: 2 Units

Pirates are gaining tons of respect from Vegas these days, and rightfully so. They are 7-2 ITS, winning the stats by an average +69 net YPG, and they bring a 10-4 ATS road dog log into this contest under head coach Mike Houston, including 6-0 ATS against foes coming off a loss. At 6-3 / 3-2, East Carolina trails the Bearcats by a full game on both sides of the ledger, but they arrive with momentum from a 3-game win streak, including last week’s hard-fought 27-24 decision over BYU at Provo. Cincy head coach Luke Fickell is likely freaking out, riding a current 0-4-1 ATS streak entering this contest.

Rating: 3 Units

Things have surely changed in Boiseland, with the home team moving to the fore, which is in direct opposition to the former norm in games involving the Broncos, which saw the visitor as the constant play, rewarding the "smart money" movers. Check the visitor with ATS logs of 8-4 in '15, 9-4 in '16, 10-3 in '17, & 9-3 in '21, regardless of the spread. This season, however the host in Boise games stands at 5-1-1 ATS. Not only that, but note Boise at a 174-56 pt edge in its last 5 home games, while ranking 2nd in total "O". Cougars are on runs of 0-7 & 3-13 ATS of late. 

Rating: 3 Units

Tennessee defeated two other undefeated teams this season and they’ll look to complete a three-game SUATS hat trick here. Unfortunately, they are 0-5 SUATS versus 7-0 or greater opponents. Granted, the Vols lead the SEC in turnover margin (+8) and bring a 5-1 ATS mark into this battle royale as conference road dogs of 10 or less points, but as we’ve seen time and again in games of this magnitude, defense rules. That’s where Georgia brings the better of it, by 10 points and 131 YPG. Meanwhile, the Dawgs raced out to a 28-3 lead before surviving a second-half scare in last week’s 42-20 win over Florida. They are 15-0 SU after ‘Cocktail Parties’, including 8-0 SU and 7-0 ATS when favored by fewer than 20 points. As expected, the Dawgs own an exceptionally glossy stats dossier: No. 1 in the land in Red Zone Offense and No. 2 in Red Zone Defense (think about that), as well as No. 3 in Pass Defense Efficiency, No. 4 in Time of Possession (Vols are No. 124) and Overall Defense (Vols are No. 82). They are also allowing less than a point per game in the first quarter and Kirby Smart is 36-7 SU and 30-13 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 20 points, including 8-0 SU versus undefeated opposition. 

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

We will find out if the maligned OU defense will continue their Cyclones form or revert to the team that was strafed for 41, 55, 49 and 42 points prior to visiting Ames, Iowa last weekend. If the Sooners can’t stop Baylor frosh RB Richard Reese, who despite his 5’9” stature, has 12 TDs and 791 ground yards, the game will be a Bear market. Oklahoma is a depressing 0-5 ATS at home versus a team coming off consecutive SUATS wins. To cap it off, Baylor is 20-1 ATS as a conference dog versus an opponent coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 3 Units

ODU is 4-12 SU and 5-11 ATS versus teams .400 or above. Marshall hit the inevitable speed bump last week versus Coastal Carolina after taking down previously unbeaten James Madison. Oh, they also beat Notre Dame in South Bend this year, too. Defensively the Herd reins in opponents, holding Coastal and JMU to season-low yardages. You can’t make the same claim for ODU. They surrender on average 159 more yards per game than Marshall, who’s ranked 8th in the NCAA at 283 YPG. Yes, we know Marshall is in last place in the Fun Belt East, one game back of ODU, but we think the Herd will rumble, young man rumble over the Monarchs. 

Big-10 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Boilermaker head coach Jeff Brohm has carved out a ‘good dog, bad favorite’ personality and we’re not about to go against that today, not after Purdue upset the Hawkeyes as 11-point dogs at Iowa last season, meaning a major payback is in order today. With the Boilers now a lousy 1-4 ATS at home in this series, and HC of Iowa going 24-14 ATS in his career, including 10-2 ATS when taking single digits and coming off a SUATS win.  To seal the deal, Iowa is 12-5 ATS as a dog with revenge when coming off a SUATS win under head coach Kirk Ferentz, including 8-1 ATS when not coming off a spread win of 13 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Oregon State snapped a lengthy drought when the Beavers entered the college football rankings this week for the first time since 2013. Currently out of the rankings is 6-2 Washington, fighting through a 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS slump. Washington  is 0-4 ATS with rest, 0-3 ATS on Weekdays the last two years, and 3-12 ATS off 4+ ATS losses. Oregon State is 15-4 ATS in this series, including 11-2 ATS with revenge, and 7-0 ATS off a home win of 21 or more points. Even better, coach Smith chips in with a solid 8-2 ATS record as a conference road dog with revenge

Rating: 3 Units

The Tar Heels’ defensive vulnerability is against the pass, allowing 290.0 yards per game and 18 touchdowns against five interceptions, and while Pittsburgh’s passing attack likely plays up some against that, they simply don’t have the weapons in the passing game to fully exploit an advantage. UNC is equally bad against the run; let’s just call it as it is, their defense is awful. They allow 4.72 yards per carry and 182.3 yards per game on the ground, ranking 109th. That’s absolutely where Pittsburgh will try to attack with star RB Israel Ibanikanda, who has 959 yards (6.1 ypc) and 13 touchdowns to date. There’s a scenario where he puts Pitt on his shoulders, keeps Maye sidelined and limits the Heels’ opportunities. But more likely, UNC can focus on stopping him, stacking boxes, and daring the Panthers to challenge their leaky secondary. That may produce a play or two, but it won’t be sustained. UNC is coming off a bye while Pitt is travelling for the second-straight week, a tough ask for a mediocre team

Upset of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Aggies have won and covered the last three games of this series, but they have gone 9 consecutive FBS games scoring 25 or fewer points – second-longest current streak in the FBS. Things are in crisis mode in College Station, as their fans are not used to seeing three consecutive defeats. Their saving grace is the fact they actually outgained their first FBS foe this season (they’re 1-5 ITS) in last week’s loss to South Carolina. Fisher lost three games in a row once in his career, (in 2011) but won the next game 41-16 at home against Duke. We call for the upset today. To cap it off,  Jimbo Fisher is 14-3 SU at home off consecutive losses, including 2-0 SUATS as a dog.

Rating: 3 Units

TCU has been living  on the razor’s edge lately, and that doesn’t bode well for the  Frogs today as they enter one of college football’s true house  of horrors: Mountaineer Field in Morgantown, West Virginia.  Neither does the Frogs’ 0-4 ATS record away with conference  revenge and their 1-7 ATS failure before playing Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers fare much better, cashing six straight series tickets over the Frogs, and going 10-5 ATS as home dogs versus unbeaten foes, including 3-0 SUATS the last three games and 3-0 ATS with a losing record. Consider that WVU head coach Neal Brown is 6-1 ATS in games versus undefeated foes in which they allow fewer than 30 PPG, including 4-0 SUATS when his team sports a losing record.

Rating: 3 Units

Gabriel returned before Oklahoma’s byeweek against Kansas and was spectacular again, notching 403 passing yards with two TDs and a pick while adding 37 rushing yards and a TD, So the real key for this Sooner team seems to be avoiding teams with good offenses. Their defense doesn’t really fare well in any category, when an opponent can’t score or move the ball with any consistency, they will be a target. And here we have the IowaState Cyclones. ISU can’t score (103rd), can’t rush the ball (122nd), and isn’t efficient (98th in yards per play). They excel at playing slowly, so that’s something. When it’s right, Oklahoma’s offense is fast and explosive, so time of possession likely won’t matter much. Iowa State has lost four straight and to their credit, all of those losses have come within a single score. Of course, if they could score even a little, they’d probably win those games. They have scored more than 25 points just once against FBS opponents and that came against an Ohio team that might have a worse defense than OU. They can’t and won’t win this one. 

ACC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Notre Dame has been favored in the last eight matchups in this series since 2003 and even covered when a 33-point favorite in 2020. They are 3-1 ATS in the last four, 4-1 ATS away vs foes .800 or better, and a sturdy 9-3 ATS in ACC road games… PLUS a whopping 5-0 SUATS in the last five ACC battles. Meanwhile the state of the Orangemen must be called into doubt after the Clemson crusher, plus the Dome hasn’t always been a warm home to the football program. SU is a horrible 0-4-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or fewer points when coming off a conference contest. Finally, ND is 17-6 ATS as a dog versus an opponent coming off a loss, including 10-1 ATS when the Irish are coming off a win of 4 or more points.

Rating: 3 Units

Despite the Frogs’ unbeaten winning streak, they’re just 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten Big 12 battles, and 2-7 ATS as favorites of 7 or fewer points. TCU is also 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games, 1-4 ATS with conference revenge the last two years, and 1-6 ATS home versus a conference foe with rest. That’s a lot of money burning, folks, and it gets worse when we see that the Wildcats are on a 4-0 ATS skein versus the Frogs, and 5-1 ATS record of late when playing in Fort Worth. We’re not done: K-State is 6-0 ATS in the second of consecutive Big 12 road affairs, and 10-1-1 ATS in the last twelve versus foes playing with conference revenge. Finally, the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS after scoring 10 or fewer points (beat Iowa State, 10-9) and if you think that scoreboard drought will be a problem, the last time Chris Klieman’s crew was held to 10 points, they dropped 41 on Oklahoma the following week. Finally consider that KSU head coach Klieman is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS against undefeated opponents coming off a win of 3-plus points, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Bama’s 40 straight appearances in the Top 5 ends as they fall to No. 6 entering this contest. However, before knee-jerking and deciding to back Bama here, you need to know that Nick Saban is just 6-13 ATS in his CFB head coaching career, including just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS at home when coming off a SUATS loss and facing an FBS opponent. Mississippi State HC, Mike Leach is 30-15 ATS after a double digit loss, including 15-4 ATS in the last 19 games. Additionally playing against any unrested double-digit conference favorite from Game 7 out off its first loss of the season as a conference favorite of more than 7 points if they’re facing a greater than .333 conference foe off a loss is 15-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 units

Defensively, Missouri has allowed 26 points or less in four straight, including a near miss at home against Georgia (26-22), and a road trip to Florida, where they fell by seven as double-digit underdogs. QB Brady Cook looks to be evolving, completing 67.7 percent of his passes over the last two weeks, while running backs Nathaniel Peat and Cody Schrader are both averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry, which should play well against Vandy’s 87th-ranked rush defense that’s allowing 4.7 ypc and 10 touchdowns in conference. Missouri is winless in conference, and have to get on track, another reason we should expect max effort from a rested side

Rating; 3 Units

Amazingly OU West is terrible at defending their turf in a triple revenge match, going 0-4 ATS against a foe seeking to finally win one. Oregon is also on shaky ground in this series when coming off an ATS win of 13 or greater, going 0-5 ATS. The Bruins have a large stack of good numbers: 6-1 ATS as dogs of 6 or fewer points, 3-1 ATS off a home dog win – and Chip Kelly’s gambling numbers are even more intimidating. He’s 20-4 SU and 18-6 ATS away off a win as a college coach. Consider as well that 6-0 dogs are 17-5-1 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a win of 10 points or more.

MAC game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

After a slow 0-3 start, the Bulls have kicked their heels and ride a 4-0 SUATS win skein entering this contest. The offense has averaged 36.5 PPG in those four games, while the defense has held its last two opponents to just 7 points apiece. Buffalo in this series is 5-1 ATS of late, including 3-0 ATS at UB Stadium. Buffalo is also 12-4-1 ATS as a home dog, including 5-0-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opposition. Head coach Maurice Linguist, had sunk to 4-11 with the Bulls until they went on their recent 4 game rampage. Buffalo is 7-2 SU and 8-0-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS favorite win. Also, consider that playing on any college football home dog who is 4-0 SUATS in its last four games if they were favored in their last game is  22-9 ATS since 1980, including 20-4 ATS if they are facing a foe coming off consecutive wins..

Rating: 3 Units

FSU is 1-4 ATS at home in a conference revenge game, 1-4 ATS before the Bye week, 2-7 ATS in Game 7.  Tigers haven't posted those eye-popping winning margins as was a weekly happening in the Watson & Lawrence glory years, but just keep getting it done, with QB Uiagalelei improving by the week, standing at a sweet 14/2 TD/INT ratio. Clemson is 4-0 ATS in the last four of this series. Clemson is clearly improving and a groggy bunch of Seminoles hungover from last week is just what the Tigers should munch on to remain unbeaten.

SEC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The bottom line is that Brian Kelly will need to do a better job or his one-game deficit in the SEC West will be blowing in the wind. At least he helps himself by bringing along a 21-12 ATS record as a road dog, including 9-1 ATS off an ATS loss of 9 or more points. LSU has also held its own in the last nine series contests with Florida, going 6-2-1 ATS overall and 3-1 SUATS away. New Gators head coach Billy Napier looks to be behind the 8-ball here, as the host team has gone 1-4 ATS in five lined games under Napier this season. Florida also hasn’t fared well of late in home games when playing with SEC revenge, going just 1-4 ATS. Consider finally, that Napier stands 5-11-1 ATS as a conference home favorite, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS versus .666 or greater opponents.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

First, BYU in the favorite role at home is 2-6 ATS when the spread is under 6 points. Second, Arkansas is 5-1 ATS as a dog of 6 or less. Third, the Razorbacks are a sharp 4-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Even better, or worse depending on whom you’re rooting for, a top-notch SEC underdog coming off losses to Bama and Texas A&M finds itself 7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in this situation. Consider that the Cougars have not faired well versus the SEC going 1-8 ATS versus SEC foes since 1990.

Rating: 2 Units

Penn State has gone 2-0 SUATS so far in road trips this season while Michigan’s sole cover in three home games came against pitiful Connecticut. Penn State is also 4-1-1 ATS as dogs versus an undefeated conference opponent, and head coach James Franklin chips in with a money-making 37-18-1 ATS mark when coming off consecutive wins. Additionally the Lions bring in a 21-4 SU and 17-6-1 ATS record when undefeated, including 14-2-1 ATS when facing winning foes. To Cap it off, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is 2-11 ATS in his CFB career in games involving undefeated opponents, including 0-9 ATS the last nine games.

Rating: 3 Units

Texas is a miserable 1-8 ATS as double-digit chalk in conference games. On the flip side, the Cyclones are 6-0 ATS as dogs of 3-plus points when coming off a loss, and following a tough 1-point loss at home against Kansas State last week, the Cyclones suddenly find themselves with their backs to the college bowl wall. That’s where head coach Matt Campbell comes to the rescue, as he is 10-1 ATS as a double-digit dog in conference games, including 10-0 ATS versus .500 or greater foes.

Rating: 3 Units

Ole Miss doesn't have any reason to look past Auburn despite the Tigers' .500 record and struggling offense. The meat of the Rebels schedule awaits them after this game with matchups at LSU, at Texas A&M and finally at home against Alabama. The Rebels need a convincing win against Auburn as they ready for a make-or-break run in the SEC.  Ole Miss's ground game should easily overwhelm Auburn's 62nd ranked rushing defense and the new wrinkle of a solid passing attack will likely be unveiled yet again when Auburn attempts to stack the box. Kiffin has never been known for his modest goals so don't expect the Ole Miss taskmaster to take his foot off the gas in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

SMU is only 1-6 ATS in Weekday games and 1-4 ATS versus opponents with double revenge, but they’re also 0-7 ATS as conference home favorites when coming off consecutive losses. That’s a perfect set-up for Navy’s mind boggling 15-0-1 ATS as a dog off a win versus losing foes.

Rating; 2 Units

Owls are just 1-4 ATS in this series and riding a 0-6 SUATS losing skein in their last six road games. Ugh. Meanwhile, UCF’s program continues to live the high life (nine bowls in last ten seasons), though fans were somewhat disappointed in Gus Malzahn’s 9-4 debut last year after finishing 41-8 the previous four seasons. They were also quite upset when the Knights took the biggest fall in the AP Poll two weeks ago, snapping a 33-week streak of being ranked. However, UCF has won three straight and with an extra week to prepare, should be in a salty mood here tonight. Since they’ve beaten the Owls by 109 points in the last three meetings, we look for more of the same this evening.

PAC-12 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Washington State is 7-2 ATS as the visitor  in this series and 12-3 ATS in Game One of back-to-back road games. Looking up another Washington State stat yields: 7-0 ATS on the road against double-digit unbeaten favorites. USC makes this decision easier by being 2-11 ATS in Game 6, 1-6 ATS home versus conference triple vengeance, and 2-6 ATS in game two of a back-to-back conference affair at home. Add to that the risk of SC looking ahead to a big-time revenge matchup with Utah next week and the LA crowd might be distracted.

Rating: 2 Units

Mack Brown is a soothing 7-2 ATS with the Heels against rested foes, including 5-0 ATS the last five. Word out of Coral Gables is there is more wrong with this Miami team than just QB Tyler Van Dyke, who has lost a ton off his fastball and is missing wide receivers at an alarming rate this season. The honeymoon appears to be over with 1st year head coach Mario Cristobal after the shocking loss to Middle Tennessee, which won’t be helped by his 4-8 ATS record when coming off a SU favorite loss. Most important, playing against any college football favorite coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 20 or more points if they’re facing a .400 or greater foe is 44-25-2 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Texas is 1-3 ATS in quadruple revenge games. Also, the Horns have been the dog in each of the last 13 games in this series, which makes the Sooners a dog and we simply can’t ignore these ill-at-ease underdogs as the Oklahoma Sooners are 19-1 SU in games off a loss in which they allowed 36 or more points when facing sub .750 opponents. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 2-10 ATS as a favorite in his career off a SUATS win when facing a .500 or greater foe, including 0-8 ATS If his team scored fewer than 50 points in the win.

Rating: 2 units

Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm is back in his groove as a dog of 4 or more points where he stands 21-6 ATS. Meanwhile, Maryland’s 4-1 SU start under head coach Mike Locksley is no mirage, as the Terps are the only team to actually threaten Michigan with defeat this season. Unfortunately for Maryland, coach Locksley has an 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS mark in his career versus foes coming off consecutive wins. We liked the way Brohm’s bunch handled the pressure of the big stage against Minnesota, and with 77 YPG the better defense, we’re back on the beat with the Boilermakers this week. 

Rating: 2 units

Teams who beat Oklahoma are 4-12-1 ATS the following game as a favorite versus opponents coming off consecutive wins. KU is also 6-2 ATS in its last eight series meetings with the Frogs, and the series host has cashed five of the last six tickets. Consider that 5-0 teams in Game Six tend to do well as dogs, going 56-35-2 ATS overall. Additionally, when they take on an opponent that scored 48 or more points in its last contest, they skyrocket to 16-3-1 ATS.  With TCU just 2-6 ATS of late as a Big 12 road favorite or road dog of 4 or fewer points, We'll take Kansas.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Kelly has been a home hero, going 18-7 SU at home versus undefeated foes, including 13-3 in games in which his troops allow fewer than 21 PPG. LSU is also 5-1 ATS versus conference opponents with rest, and 15-8 ATS as a home dog when coming off an ATS loss, including 4-0 SUATS over the last four. Last week’s win over Auburn was ugly, as Kelly’s team fell behind early, 17-0, before getting it into gear. Tennessee has solid wins against Florida and
Pitt, but the Vols are just 2-7 ATS in Game 5. Finally, consider that the Vols are 3-11 SU and 1-13 ATS when both teams were favorites in their last game, including 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in SEC games.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating; 4 units

Both teams are 4-0 on the season, this marks the Wolfpack’s first ACC tilt while the Tigers bring a 2-0 conference record into this affair. Recent ATS history offer full support to Clemson here, as they are 7-1 ATS as conference chalk of 8 or fewer points, plus the series host has cashed in three of the last four. That’s pretty strong considering State’s 1-7 ATS failure as a dog of 8 or fewer points, and a 1-4 ATS mark playing away from Raleigh after a non-conference home game. Most important, though, is the fact that the Wolfpack tripped up the Tigers, 27-21, as 10.5-point home dogs last season. With Dabo revenge in play here, we’ll lay the points as he has excelled in conference games when seeking revenge, going 14-6 SU and 13-7 ATS in his career, including a perfect 6-0 SUATS as a single-digit favorite.

Rating: 3 Units

Northwestern has won the stats in every game they’ve played this season. The Lions find themselves laying more than 3 TDs for the third time in the last four games, and they’re currently 0-5 ATS as conference favorites of 18 or more points. In fact, head coach James Franklin has struggled as big chalk, going 9-12 ATS as a favorite of 24 or more points, including 2-7 ATS in conference games. After 16-plus years at the helm in Evanston, head coach Pat Fitzgerald has seen it all, and he knows his team has gone 5-1 ATS of late in their initial Big Ten road games of the season. The line hasn’t moved much from the PSU -25.5 opener, so we’ll grab the big points as Northwestern looks to improve to 5-0 ATS away after three straight home games. 

Rating: 2 units

Game Four rested teams who find themselves seeking revenge are 38-15 ATS in conference games when coming off a double-dig win. This week we find Oklahoma State fitting the bill. Better yet, put these rested revengers up against with foes coming off a win of 6-plus points and they zoom to 23-5 ATS in this role. 

Rating: 3 Units

Ole Miss’ run success has been impressive, but Kentucky should be able to at least slow it, as they allow 3.7 yards per carry and three scores to date. That should force the Rebels to throw more than they’ve shown, and we think they haven’t shown it because they either aren’t confident, or aren’t capable. Consider that the Rebels are 0-3 ATS vs Double Conference Revenge, and strangely 3-10 ATS in the second of back-to-back games at the Oxford campus.

Rating; 2 Units

Game Four of the College Football season is often times a critical stepping-stone for teams who play with a week of rest. This is especially true for teams that are either playing at home off a win, or in conference games when seeking revenge. These reinvigorated home teams take the field off a win with a week of rest in Game Four of the season, they are a super-strong 99-67-2 ATS overall since 1980, including 21-9-1 ATS when they sport a .333 win percentage. Army finds itself in this desirable role on Saturday. And better yet, they improve to 14-3-1 ATS in this role when coming off a win of 17-plus points, including 8-0 SUATS in they won 8 or more games last season.

Big-10 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The 23 points given up by the Hawkeyes in their first four games are the fewest scored on the team since 1966. In addition,  Iowa will be looking to avenge last season’s loss to Michigan,42-3, in the Big Ten title game. things to consider are that College football home dogs like Iowa, who won 10-plus games the previous season, are 3-0 ATS in Game Five versus undefeated foes playing their first road game of the season. Additionally,  4-0 College football favorites in their first road game are 1-7 ATS since 1980 in Game Five versus foes coming off consecutive wins.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lobo demise (9-41 SU, 10-27-1 ATS) may have actually crested with last week's 38-0 loss to LSU, with a stat debacle that saw 28-2 FD, & 633-88 TY deficits. Over its last 13 lined games, New Mexico has a 379-120 pt shortage, with its lone cover this season coming against a Unlv squad that turned it over no less than 7 times. Rebels have turned their spread fortunes around, with current 11-4-1 ATS run, covering their last home game by 28½. Lobos with just a 2-TD spot are a definite go-against in this.

Rating: 3 Units

Huskies look like they’ll be among the finalists for a berth in the season-ending Pac-12 championship games, our biggest concern is this is their first road outing after opening the season with four straight games at Husky Stadium. Another problem for DeBoer is the Bruins’ recent series domination, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS at home, including 4-0 ATS as a dog, as well as 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with a win percentage of .700 or greater. UCLA practically matches the Huskies in the stats, with each team gaining 500-plus yards and surrendering less than 300 yards this campaign. Washington is also a horrible 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games with conference revenge. Additionally the Huskies are 3-9 ATS  as Pac-12 road chalk.  Finally, 4-0 College football favorites in their first road game are 1-7 ATS since 1980 in game five versus foes coming off consecutive wins.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

K-State has covered the last three matchups in this series, and head coach Chris Kleiman is 7-2 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points, including 4-0 ATS when taking more than a dozen points. There is no question that the Wildcats have struggled offensively this season, but the loss to Tulane last week was truly an aberration for star RB Deuce Vaughn, as the diminutive junior failed to score a TD for the first time in 10 games. Kleiman’s defense, however, is very good. Consider , teams playing AWAY off their first loss of the season find point spread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 139-106-7 ATS dating back to 1980. When these teams are also off an ATS loss (Kansas State), they improve to 121-78-4 ATS in these situations. And if these teams are coming off a SU favorite loss they ratchet up to 69-35-2 ATS, including 38-13-1 ATS as a dog, in addition to 31-10-1 ATS against a foe coming off a SUATS win – and a 20-6 ATS combo as a dog against foes coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rebels have tied their win total from last year already and now get to try to take revenge after last year’s last minute loss. USU hasn’t shown the excellent pass attack that drove them to success in 2021 as they are 115th in passing yards and 119th in yards per play. QB Luke Bonner’s YPA has dropped from 8.4 to 6.4 and he has a 3-3 TD-INT ratio.That could be a big problem because if Utah State’s rushing defense continues to be as bad as it has been, he won’t be able to dig them out of a hole. They are 126th in rushing defense at 240.7 ypg allowed and 102nd in yards per play allowed. UNLV’s two top RBs each average over 6 YPC and have shown big play ability. Add in a QB completing over 70% of his passes at a 9.1 YPA clip and you have a tough mountain to climb for the Aggies.

SEC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Gators own a huge statistical edge in this series, going 5-1 SUATS the last six meetings, 11-1-1 ATS in Game 4, and a whopping: 16-1 ATS in the last 17 games against Tennessee. The Vols are 0-4 SUATS in Game 4’s, and 1-8 ATS as SEC home favorites of 10 or more points. Tennessee is also 6-8 SU and 4-10 ATS at Rocky Top coming off a home game, and a depressing 0-5 SUATS against SEC foes coming off a win. To cap it off Florida is 14-2 SU and 14-1-1 ATS in this series when Tennessee is coming off a win of 10 or more.

Rating: 3 Units

Auburn's first major test was a miserable failure last week, as the 41-12 loss to Penn State was the Tigers’ fifth straight to a Power Five team. Tigers have not had a single defensive takeaway this season through three games. Harsin is 6-11 ATS when favored and coming off a loss, including 2-7 ATS at home. Consider that home teams coming off their first loss of the season is 139-154-4 ATS since 1980. And if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial loss they fall to 45-69-2 ATS. When they are facing a conference opponent, they plummet to 20-39-1 ATS. And when these same teams are taking on conference foes and coming off a loss of more than 21 points, they bottom out at 10-26 SU and 10-25-1 ATS. 

Rating: 3 Units

Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney just signed a new contract extension worth big bucks, and he knows his team can overcome a slow start to get back in the CFB Playoff discussion. Swinney stands 48-5 SU and 34-18-1 ATS in conference games when coming off a win of 20-plus points and an ATS loss, including a 19-5 ATS record away. Consider that Wake has fallen asleep as a home dog against foes coming off consecutive wins, going just 3-34 SU and 10-27 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Broncos hit the highway for the third time in four games tonight surrendering just 230 YPG (No. 10 in the nation), pretty amazing when we consider that Boise State is usually known for its high-scoring offense. Game Fours have worked out well recently for them, who are on a 4-0 SUATS streak with an average win margin of 21.5 PPG. A 1-10 SU failure in Game Fives won’t work here for the Miners, not when they’re 0-6 ATS in this series, and just 23-54 ATS in home losses as an underdog.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chanticleers had their feathers ruffled in a costly 42-41 decision to the Panthers as 12-point chalk last season, so they figure to come focused here tonight. Bringing a stellar 9-3 SU and 10-1-1 ATS mark in games when seeking conference revenge bodes well. So does the fact that 3-0 teams are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in Game Four of the season against 0-3 squads coming off a SU favorite loss, including 4-0 ATS away. GSU can claim a 5-0-1 ATS record in Sun Belt openers, but home teams in conference games, coming off a SU loss as a favorite of -17 or more points, are just 42-65-3 ATS long-term.

Rating: 2 Units

UTSA is 20-8 SU under Traylor, with only two losses by more than 14 points. He is also 18-5 SU in games in which his team has an equal or better overall record than the opponent, including 6-2 ATS as a dog. Consider as well that Traylor is  is 17-9 ATS with this team, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS away versus non-conference foes. 

Rating: 3 Units

MSU is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games versus the Pac-12, as well as 1-8 ATS in Game Three’s when coming off a victory. Huskies are 5-1 versus the number as non-conference chalk of less than 10 points, 9-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in Game Three, and 12-1 SU and 8-4-1 ATS as a host versus Big Ten opposition. Hang at home with the Huskies. To conclude, if the 2-0 teams managed to beat the spread in each of their first two games, they’ve gone on to beat the spread only 47% of the time in Game Three. And worse, if they are on the road they fall to 66-90 ATS.

Mismatch of the Week

Rating: 4 units

Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS at home in this series and this 6th most experienced team in the nation. Meanwhile, Marshall has struggled on the road when they visit the MAC, going 11-25-1 ATS and 1-5 ATS when coming off a win where they beat a 21 point plus spread. In addition,  double-digit ATS winners that are 2-0 road favorites slip badly the following week, going 3-10 ATS the past five years in game 3’s. Consider as well that playing against any college football favorite who upset Notre Dame in its last game if they beat the spread by 17 or more points in the win is 12-1-1 since 1992.

Inter-Conference Game of the Month

Rating; 5 Units

Coach Bryan Harsin after a rough first season, is 27-7 in his first four games of the season and Auburn is 10-2 ATS as home dogs against undefeated foes. Nittany Lions leader James Franklin is 3-10-1 ATS away vs a team coming off back to back wins. PSU being 2-7 ATS vs. the SEC is another reason we’re going with the Tigers.

Rating; 3 units

Finally a decent game from the Hoosiers, behind 155 rushing yards from Shivers. But that was vs Idaho, so note being held to 32 rushing yards s vs Illinois. Indy on 2-12 ATS run, with both covers by a single point. 'Toppers on an 8-1-1 spread run, & 10-1 SU skein (41+ pts 10-of-11 games).

Rating: 2 units

I know that's a lot of points to lay on the road, but who is going to stop Air Force this season on the ground. They struggled last week with three turnovers against Colorado and still managed to put up 41 points. Having an experienced quarterback like Daniels is crucial to the option offense. There's no defense that he hasn't seen in defending the option. Wyoming has played three games already and is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Falcons are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS after crushing Colorado last week 41-0 as a 17-point home favorite.

CFB Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Cougars are 15-7 ATS in home openers, including 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS as a favorite of more than 2 points. The host in this series winning and covering the last three matchups, while BYU is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Big 12 opponents. To clinch it, Baylor is 2-10 ATS in its first away game of the season, including 0-6 ATS when not favored by more than 14 points.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

With at least four games to come against ranked opponents, last weeks loss deals a major blow to the Eagles’ path back to bowl eligibility under 3rd-year coach Jeff Hafley. A long-term 18-7-1 ATS record as conference road dogs since 2013, including 7-1 ATS when both teams are coming off a loss, plus a series spread mark of 8-3 ATS in the last eleven games (4-1 ATS in the last five) means it's a BC call tonight. To seal the deal consider that beaten bowlers in Game Two who lost their season-opening game as a favorite are 54-72 ATS in these games, and if they happen to be seeking revenge in this contest, they dip to 8-17 SU and 6-19 ATS in these frays – including 2-13 SU and 1-14 ATS if they scored 24 or fewer points in the loss.

Rating: 4 Units

West Virginia, the Mountaineers are recovering from losing the Backyard Brawl last week to Pitt. The numbers are not favorable for head coach Neal Brown, whose seat is heating up more rapidly each passing week. Try 7-11-2 ATS as a home favorite of 9 or more points on for size, including 3-8-2 ATS at home. If that is not enough consider that Game Two bowlers off a season opening defeat when laying points, are just 107-117-2 ATS. To make it worse, if these teams are facing a conference foe that is coming off a loss they dip to 7-18 ATS. 

Rating: 4 Units

One of these 2 teams has an offense, & it ain't the Hawkeyes, who finished 121st in the nation in that category last year. How about Iowa's opening 7-3 win over So Dakota St was the first time that a team scored 7 points with no accompanying TD in forever (1 FG & 2 safeties). The Cyclones have been a premier dog play, standing at 23-9 in that situation over the past few years, & have unveiled QB Dekkers (25-of-31 last wk). Revenge.

CFB Play of the Day

Texas is a  paltry 2-9 ATS in its last 11 SEC wars, and not after gaining just 383 total yards in the blowout of ULM. In addition, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 1-10 ATS in games when both teams are coming off a SUATS win if his team scored 35-plus points in its last game. To cap it all off when coming off a season-opening win of more than 44 points, AP Preseason No. 1 ranked teams (Alabama this season) are 7-0 SUATS in Game Two since 1980 – by an average score of 49-8.

Rating: 3 Units

We’ll stick with UCF’s 6-1 ATS mark of late as home chalk of fewer than 7 points, as opposed to Louie’s 2-9 ATS dog log in that same price range. . In addition, beaten bowlers in Game Two who lost their season-opening game as a favorite become sluggish propositions in Game Two. That’s confirmed by their 54-72 ATS mark in these games, a role in which Louisville, will find themselves this week.

NCAAF Play of the Day

4 Units

Kelly hasn’t exactly been an ATM early in the season, going 0-3 ATS in season openers the last three years, and 5-13-2 ATS in the first three games of the year versus foes that won 5 or fewer games the previous season,  including 0-5 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points. Meanwhile, Norvell is 16-9 SU and 11-7 ATS versus non-conference opponents, including 7-0 ATS the last seven contests, and 7-1 ATS during the first three games of the season.

Rating: 2 Units

North Texas HC Littrell is a solid 8-4 SU and 7-3-1 ATS record at home when coming off a win. There’s also the fact that SMU has taken out the N. Texas three straight years, making this a triple-revenge affair for UN – a role in which N. Texas is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in since 2017. In the same vein, teams in Game One of the season are 0-4 ATS since 2000 when facing a foe coming off a win seeking triple revenge when not favored by more than 10 points.

5* CFB Blowout

The tale of the ATS tape tonight doesn’t strongly favor either side. Ohio State is 34-1 SU in season openers, including 22 wins in a row, and 4-0 SUATS of late in the series (average win 15.5 PPG). The Irish counter with a recent 14-5 SU record versus Big Ten opponents, and in the last 115 games in which ND has tackled the Big Ten, they’ve lost by more than 17 points only 10 times. The bottom line is this many points is simply too much to pass up with a quality team like the Irish. Buckeyes win on the scoreboard, but Notre Dame cashes the ticket.

Rating: 3 Units

Utes are just 4-9 SU in one-score contests the past five seasons, including 1-6 SU on the road. They’re also 1-5 ATS as non-conference favorites the last four years, numbers that pale next to Florida’s 3-0 ATS run as a home dog, and its 3-0 ATS effort against the Pac-12. Consider that new Florida head coach Billy Napier is 12-6 ATS as a dog, including 7-1 SUATS as a dog of 5 or fewer points.

NCAAF Game of the Week

5 Units

Appalachian State stands 11-1 SU at home under third-year head coach Shawn Clarke, and 32-3 SU on the Mountain since 2016. FYI: the Apps are also 40-11 ITS (In The Stats) the last four years, including 21-3 at home. To seal the deal, consider that Appalachian State is 23-1 SU in regular season games in which they win the stats the past two seasons.

Rating; 3 Units

Head coach Karl Dorrell revamped his offensive coaching staff with four new hires. Despite Dykes owning a money-burning 8-17 ATS as a road favorite, including 3-16 ATS the last nineteen outings, the public is still enamored with the Horned Frogs (now at -13.5). But with a Rocky Mountain high home field advantage, looks for the Buffs to trade scores with TCU and keep the game tight throughout.

Rating; 3 Units

The Hoosiers gave up 384 yards of offense per game, as the Fighting Illini are going to have multiple opportunities to score throughout this game. Tommy Devito and Chase Brown carried their offense last week, as I wouldn't be surprised if they went off in this one again. Indiana also gave up 33.3 points per game. This was the most in the Big Ten, as I don't see their upgrades completely changing this team. They still have a long way to go and I loved the way the Fighting Illini looked against Wyoming. I understand that they are a weaker opponent, but the offense was humming and they were putting pressure on the opposing quarterback. They will do that again in this one, as Illinois will be able to keep the Hoosiers off the scoreboard for the majority of this game.

Rating: 3 Units

West Virginia is 9-3 SUATS away in the series, including 5-1 SUATS as underdogs. By comparison, Pitt has posted a 1-6 SU effort versus Big 12 opponents, and a 2-6 ATS record as a non-conference favorite of 8 or fewer points. To cap it off, Coach Brown’s solid 14-7-2 ATS mark as a road dog tells us West Virginia can keep this one close.

NCAAF Upset Special

Nevada has managed to win only seven of its 26 games away from Reno by more than 10 points the past four seasons – and those were all with bowl teams. New NMSU head coach Jerry Kill takes over for the Aggies. His presence alone guarantees an uptick in NMSU stock this season. Kill is 7-1 SU in home openers in his college career, with the only loss coming by seven points. Consider that Aggies head coach Jerry Kill is 17-8 ATS as a double-digit dog in his career, including 6-1 ATS at home (6-0 ATS the last six).

Rating: 3 Units

Nick Saban stands 25-1 SU and 16-10 ATS against former coaches by an average margin of victory of 23.8 PPG, including 4-0 SU versus Smart by an average margin of victory of 11 PPG. He’s also a perfect 6-0 SUATS as a dog coming off four or more wins in a row – the same role in which he knocked off Georgia in the SEC title game last month. In addition, the Dawgs had better not let the Tide take a double-digit lead in this contest as Alabama is 60-0 SU in games when leading by 10 or more points (the longest skein in the nation). The favorite in CFP championship games shows no real advantage, going 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS all-time, including 0-3 ATS when not undefeated. Bad role for Georgia, too, as the Bulldogs are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as bowl chalk of 7 or fewer points when not coming off consecutive SUATS wins and facing foes coming off a SUATS win. We could go back-and-forth all day, but the bottom line is we cannot pass up an opportunity to back the No. 1 ranked team in the nation as a dog in the biggest game of the season.

Rating: 3 Units

The boys from Manhattan own massive edges at both the head coaching and quarterback positions, and coach Klieman stands 11-4 SU and 10-3 ATS versus .500 or fewer opponents. We cement the call with this nugget that Bowl dogs coming off consecutive losses are 5-0 SUATS since 1980 against foes off a pair of wins, the last SU as an underdog.

Rating: 2 Units

Rating: 4 Unit Bowl Game of the Day

The Golden Domers are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS versus .846-or-greater Big 12 opponents, plus 7-13 SU and 6-14 ATS versus bowl opponents that allow fewer than 18.5 PPG. And that is key here as the Cowboys have one of the stingiest defensive units in the nation (ranked 3rd in the country), and allowed just 16.8 points per game this season, which was 7th in scoring defense. DC Jim Knowles is another major coach who has flown the coop before a bowl game, heading for the same position at Ohio State, but the defensive game plan is etched in stone in Stillwater. Also, remember, the Cowboys were one inch away from a possible appearance in this season College Football Playoff after going 5-0 SUATS away from home this season. Consider that College Bowl favorites entering 3-0 SUATS in their last three games, the last an ATS win of 6-plus points, are 4-29 ATS against a foe who scored 21 or fewer points in its final game of the season.  Know also that playing against any College Bowl favorite who is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last 3 games if they are off a double-digit ATS win and are facing a foe coming off a loss who allows fewer than 25 PPG is a perfect 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Units

Penn State enters the Outback Bowl just 2-5 SU and ITS (In The Stats) in their last seven games. Franklin doesn’t lend much assistance today with his 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS career record against SEC foes that own the better record. Advantage to coach Pittman, who brings a 10-3 ATS dog log into this battle, including 6-0 ATS versus sub .800 foes. SEC bowlers with the better record are 24-10 SU, and 20-14 ATS versus Big Ten foes, including 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS the last ten years. We’ll call this a fat-cat favorite against an opponent that is absolutely elated to be here – and grab as many points as we can.

Rating: 2 Units

The loss to Alabama, which resulted in an avalanche of social media postings that condemned UGA QB Stetson Bennett’s effort, knocked the Dawgs ‘all the way down’ to No. 2 nationally in overall Team Defense (254.4). Still, Georgia held eight foes to 7 or fewer points this season, with only ONE team scoring more than 17 points (Bama with 41 in the SEC title game). So, when the ‘D’ plays up to its usual standards, we think Bennett is more than capable of leading his team to a big win in a big game. The mean machine shows support for Georgia, too, as it notes that bowlers coming off a loss who surrender 14.5 or fewer PPG are 25-10-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS win, including 21-6 SUATS against opponents who allow more than 15 PPG. The Bulldogs have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight Bowls, which includes a 4-1 ATS effort as chalk of less than 13 points, and they’ve gone 6-2 ATS when playing off a SU loss of 14 or more points. A big chink in Michigan’s armor comes courtesy of Harbaugh’s 10-29 SU and 17-22 ATS as a dog, including 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS versus .923 or greater opponents. Numbers like those lend more  importance to the Wolverines’ dismal 1-5 ATS mark as bowl dogs after scoring 40 or more points in the previous three games, and their recent 1-3 ATS slide as bowl dogs. Finally, SEC Bowl favorites stand 9-3 ATS versus the Big Ten, while Big Ten bowl dogs are 0-5 SUATS since 2002 versus foes coming off a SU favorite loss.

Rating: 3 Units

The Bearcats are the ONLY Bowl dog this season that was favored in every game, and undefeated dogs of more than 4 points in this role are 8-2 ATS. Cincy has also been money in the bank the last three years when taking points, going 5-1 ATS, and Luke Fickell’s ‘Cats hang right in with the big boys, going 6-0 ATS in their last six battles with .900 or better opponents. Yes, Nick’s Tide was hugely impressive against Georgia, but just one week earlier, Bama had to engineer an offensive drive for the ages merely to force OT against Auburn, then somehow prevailed in four overtimes, 24-22. And everyone thinks these guys can’t be beat? A tale of the tape shows that while the Bearcats beat all comers this season, they were 7-0 ATS versus .500 or greater foes, as opposed to 1-4 ATS versus losing opposition. It fits within Cincy’s 23-12 SU and 21-13-1 ATS overall mark against .500 or better foes under head coach Fickell, who is also 26-5 SU and 17-12 ATS when undefeated, including 7-0 ATS versus a foe coming off an ATS win of 8+ points. The fact is Alabama is just 1-4 ATS as Bowl chalk of more than 9 points, plus defending champs are just 9-8 SU and 6-11 ATS since 1980 as favorites of more than 6 points the following postseason, including 0-4 SUATS when they surrender 18 or more PPG – with every loss as a favorite. Bowl teams off a Championship dog win like Bama are 12-4 ATS, but Saban is only 2-4 ATS in his career versus undefeated foes when his team is not undefeated and coming off a SUATS win. Heisman Trophy winning QB Bryce Young will also have to face the No. 1 team in the nation in Team Passing Efficiency Defense, and the No. 3 team in the nation in Red Zone Defense. Remember, the Bearcats led Georgia 21-10 after three quarters in last year’s Peach Bowl before losing 24-21 on a last-second field goal by the Bulldogs.  These same Heisman winners are just 2-11 SU in this role.  If all of this isn't enough, consider this tidbit that playing against any college bowl team that allows fewer than 18 PPG, and won its previous game by more than 7 points is 12-1 ATS since 1980.  Then we can cap it all off with the fact that  Heisman winners are just 2-11 SU in this role.

Rating: 2 Units

The Sun Devils come into this one being 3-9 ATS in the last 12 bowls, 1-5 ATS as dogs, and the horrible history of Pac-12 Bowlers versus Big Ten foes: 4-16 ATS, including 1-5 ATS as dogs versus the Big Ten, along with 1-11 ATS if not favored by 6 or more points… and the word we’re looking for after writing that is: ugh. The Badgers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 postseason contests and Vegas Bowl history favors the favorites, 7-3 ATS in the last 10.

Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Week

The East Lansing Knothole Gang is a crackling 7-1 ATS in its last eight bowls, 3-0 ATS versus the ACC in the last three, and the B1G Boys have been bullies against the ACC in bowl season, going 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Big-moneyed Head Coach Mel Tucker engineered the biggest one-season turnaround in the long history of Spartans’ football and despite all the attention Walker III earned, don’t sleep on talented QB Payton Thorne, especially if receiver Jalen Nailor is able to bounce back from injury and join fellow wideout Jayden Reed. Consider as well that .700 or greater College Bowl ‘Mission Teams’ – teams who missed a bowl game last season after having been a bowler each of the previous three seasons – are 16-3-1 ATS versus foes coming off a loss.

Rating: 2 Units

North Carolina runs it well, 5.8 YPC, and the Gamecocks give up 5.1 per carry. But before you paint your face Carolina Blue, think of the following: South Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games, 5-1 ATS as bowl dogs, and the SEC is 10-2 ATS as bowl dogs in the last five years. UNC is 1-4 ATS in the last five versus the SEC, ACC Bowl favorites of three points or greater are 2-8 ATS. North Carolina also as sub .750 bowl favorites who allow more than 25.5 PPG are just 14-34 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS loss. We’ve written this before, motivation and just being happy to be in the bowl game is huge, and South Carolina exceeded expectations this year, while North Carolina didn’t come close.

Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Month

Oregon got as high as No. 3 in the CFB Playoff rankings before getting spanked twice in two weeks by Utah, which destroyed any hopes for a playoff appearance or a New Year’s Six Bowl. It’s bad enough that the down-and-out  Ducks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Bowls, but the Pac-12 is 0-5 ATS versus the Big 12 of late in post-season matchups, and Bowl dogs of 15 or fewer points off a conference loss of 28 or more are 3-9 ATS… that’s a lot of fugly numbers at work here against the quackers in this matchup. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in bowl games in which the Sooners sport the better record. In fact, OU is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS against Pac-12 foes in games in which the Sooners own the better record. With both head coaches bolting for greener pastures – Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley is off to USC, while Oregon’s Mario Cristobal landed at Miami Florida – the feeling here is the Sooners have much more unfinished business at hand in this contest. The Clincher: Pac-12 bowlers coming off a SUATS loss are 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS since 2015.

Rating: 2 Units

WVU head coach Neal Brown has a little catch phrase of his own to motivate his troops in “Trust the Climb”, but the Mountaineers will have a major hill to scale tonight after going 1-10 ATS in their last 11 bowl appearances. Still, Brown is 4-0 SU in his career in Bowl games (including three while at Troy), and that’s what counts today. In addition, Brown is 7-0 ATS as a non-conference dog versus .500 or greater foes, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus opponents coming off an underdog win. The Hillbillies check a lot of boxes in this matchup, and they get the call.

Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Bowl Play of the Day

Despite being the primary focus of every defense, Brad Roberts is the Falcons workhorse, averaging over 106 YPG with his longest run of the season being only 33 yards. People tend to forget the Falcons in the bowl season too, but AFA is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 bowls, 11-2 ATS off back-to-back SU victories, 4-1 ATS when an opponent limps in off a double-digit loss (like UL is), and 4-1 ATS as dogs of 6 or fewer points. Also consider that playing on any Military bowl team with a greater than .666 win percentage versus an opponent not coming off a double-digit win is 18-2 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals from Muncie, Indiana, won the Arizona Bowl as 8-point underdogs last season, but keep in mind that good fortune seldom comes calling two years in a row, as these teams are just 9-24 ATS the following bowl campaign when they field a team that owns a defense which allows more than 21.5 PPG. And when it comes to out-gaining foes on the field in 2021, BSU has bottomed out with a horrible 1-11 ITS (In The Stats) record – worst of all bowlers. The red birds have also gone 2-4 ATS in away games and 2-4 ATS as dogs, compared to the Panthers’ sparkling 5-1 ATS road record, and a 5-2 ATS mark as chalk. Down the stretch, Georgia State closed on a 6-1 SUATS run versus Ball State’s 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS effort. The deluge of bad news continues for BSU as the Cards have had their wings clipped in the last seven Bowl outings, going 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. GSU was favored one other time in a bowl game in which they cruised, 39-21, over Western Kentucky last season. With the Montgomery game site just a jaunt down I-85 from Atlanta, we look for Shawn Elliott’s Panthers to ride their 5-yards per rush ground attack to a big win here, and give the MAC another black eye in this year’s Bowls.

Rating: 3 Units

Florida will be without leading receiver Jacob Copeland, who entered the transfer portal – and he is unlikely to be the last Gator to opt out of this bowl game, as players have not meshed with the lame-duck coaching staff. All of which sets up what we like to call “The Gus Malzahn Revenge Bowl.” The former Auburn head coach knows the SEC like the back of his hand, and was 12-5 ATS as a dog against SEC foes when playing with a revenge chip on his shoulder (the Gators beat his Tigers as 2.5-point home dogs in 2019, 24-13). Gus is also 21-11-1 ATS in his career when looking to get even, including 16-3 SU and 14-4 ATS versus sub .888 foes. With Florida approaching terminal velocity in its stunning descent, we’re all-in against a big-brother foe that went 1-6 SU in games against fellow bowl teams this season.

Rating: 3 Units

The Tigers managed to outgained only three of their twelve opponents, and were just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against FBS foes who managed to rush the ball for at least 200 yards against them. For what it’s worth, the last time the Tigers tackled a Military team during Bowl season, they were left dragging their tails in a 35-13 loss to Navy as 6.5-point chalk in 2009. However, the absolute bottom line today is that Army can REALLY rush the football (second in the country behind Air Force), while Mizzou cannot stop it (120th in yards allowed per carry). As we’ve told you in the past on these pages, military teams tend to shine during the Bowl season, going 37-14 ATS overall since 1980. Better yet, these military bowlers are 6-0 ATS since 1980 when coming off a SU favorite loss.

Rating: 2 Units

UTSA’s Conference USA colleagues nodded off during bowl season last year, going 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS, doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence in Jeff Traylor’s Roadrunners, as the loop brings a 7-16 SU and 8-14-1 ATS mark in post-season performances dating back to 2017. In addition, their 1-3 ATS and ITS (In The Stats) mark in the last four games of the season, as the pressure to remain undefeated was building, throws up a big red flag for us. Consider that bowlers who have won 15 or more of their previous 22 games, and are coming off a season-ending SU favorite loss (one-exact: read the Aztecs), are 28-8-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win when not favored by 6 or more points. The fun attack of UTSA has had a great season, but the Aztecs will have all their arrows sharpened and we’re not fading that.

Rating: 2 Unit

Napier went a sparkling 40-13 in his tenure there, which if he replicates at the University of Florida, will make him a nearly Spurrier like hero. (The Head Ball Coach will always be #1 in Gainesville). Still, we have concerns, such as a flat 0-4 ATS in the last four bowl games, and 2-6 ATS mark when playing off rest. Meantime, Marshall is quite the post-season juggernaut, going 12-3 SUATS in bowl games since 1998 and 4-0 SUATS when coming off double-digit losses. Herd QB Grant Wells can fling the ball around the building quite well, ranking 12th in passing yards this season with 3,453 yards and 16 TDs, and if that’s not working, the spectacular Rasheen Ali can take over a game.

Rating: 2 Units

Typically, Oregon State is tough on the Mountain West, cashing in on 6 of the last seven skirmishes. We have backed OSU many times this season, so why are we turning our backs on them this time, you rightfully ask? Since 1984, bowl favorites who won just two games the season before are a heartburn-inducing 4-11 ATS, including 0-4 SUATS when coming off a defeat. Finally, consider that PAC-12 bowl teams coming off a win are 1-21 ATS since 2015.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cougars come into this one 9-16-1 ATS against teams who surrender 24.5 PPG or less. Coach Sitake is 6-17 ATS as a favorite in games where the Cougs give up 21.5 PPG or more, and a frightening 1-11 ATS in the last 12. Motivation is HUGE in these smaller bowl games, and we believe UAB’s will be loaded with it. Coach Bill Clark literally rose this program from the dead a few years ago, and the Blazers are a tough out against the giants, going 7-2 ATS versus foes .800 or better, including 5-1 ATS as the underdog. Not only that, the Blazers come from Conference USA, which will be undergoing massive changes soon (like it or not), but one steady stat says CUSA squadrons are 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS when coming off a win, and 7-0 ATS when coming off an ATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

Teams returning to the same bowl in which they lost last year are 0-5 SUATS since 2004. For another, they’re taking on a Northern Illinois bunch that engineered a rags-to-riches story of their own in 2021. After head coach Thomas Hammock took over the Huskies, they went winless (0-6) during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but shook off a 1-2 start this year with an 8-2 finish, blasting Kent State to claim their second MAC championship since 2014 (NIU recently signed Hammock to a contract extension through 2026). The sled dogs pulled more upsets (6) than any FBS team this season, and finished No. 1 in the nation in 4th Down Conversion Percentage, and No. 9 in Red Zone Offense. Yes, we realize Northern Illinois has gone 0-6 SUATS in bowl games since 2012, but consider that FBS bowl teams who were winless the previous season are 5-1 ATS. The bottom line is the Huskies are overjoyed to be here, while Coastal Carolina – with a QB that is less than 100% – might not be.

Rating: 2 Units

The Midshipmen have gone 18-5 ATS as dogs when coming off one SUATS win-exact, including 4-0 ATS in military matters, as well as 7-1 ATS with a losing record. Army counters with a lackluster 2-5 ATS effort in this series of late, and has gone a weak 1-4 ATS as chalk in 2021. The Mids are also not lacking in incentive: with Army playing with an Armed Forces Bowl bid in their back pocket, and knowing the CIC Trophy stays with them regardless, the Swabbies have only one thought in mind: Beat Army, Period.  Finally, consider that playing on  any sub .666 college football Military team as a dog if they are coming off a win and are facing a fellow Military team is 10-1 ATS since 1995.

Rating: 4 Units 4* Big-10 Bash

The Hawkeyes have held the upper hand in this series with the Wolverines, going 15-8-1 ATS as a dog in this series, including 8-2 ATS with an .800 or greater win percentage, and 6-0 ATS when the Maize-and-Blue are coming off back-to-back wins.  In addition, teams entering their conference championship game, coming off a win of 14 or more points, are just 19-29 ATS all-time, including 1-9 ATS against a foe coming off a loss. Next, the favorite in Big Ten title games is 2-8 ATS (1-7 ATS versus .800 or greater foes). Finally, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz brings a 5-0 ATS record as a dog of more than 7 points with a win percentage of .750 or more into the fray. The clincher:  Playing Against any favorite of 6 or more points with a better record than its opponent in its conference championship game – if coming off an ATS win of 15 or more points and facing an .800 or fewer opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1996.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* AAC Championship Cash

Playing high-profile opponents has not been a problem for Cincinnati, either, considering they own a spotless 5-0 ATS record in the last five contests versus .900 or greater opponents. Series history also favors UC, as Houston stands 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS versus the Bearcats, including 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS here. And despite this year’s success, Cougars coach Holgorsen is only 9-18 SU and 11-16 ATS versus undefeated opposition in his career. The clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* Sun Belt Championship Smash

Much like the Baylor-Oklahoma State contest, these two own very similar numbers in the most important offensive and defensive team stats, but there is one area where the Cajuns own an overwhelming edge: Appalachian State is dead even when it comes to turnover margin in 2021, while Louisiana checks in at +11. In addition to riding an 11-game win streak since an opening season loss at Texas, Louisiana beat ASU by 28 points in mid-October when they held the Mountaineers to a season-low 13 points and 211 yards. The Clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992.

Rating: 3 Unit 3* MWC Championship Whack

New Utah State head coach Blake Anderson made quite the splash in his first season with the Aggies when he took over a one-win team and led them to the MWC championship game. With four SU underdog wins this season, this nineteen returning-starter dog checks all the canine boxes today, including the one where underdogs have bagged the cash 6 of seven times in this conference title game. Sure, Diego has a tough-as-nails defense (313 YPG) that ranks No. 13 in the nation, but the sloth-like offense ranks No. 110, failing to score 20 or more points in each of their last seven contests. And while the sun worshippers are 11-1 on the season, they’re only 5-7 ITS, which means the majority of their wins have been fortuitous. With the pressure squarely on the Aztecs to capture a record-setting victory, the points become the play here today.