Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Plenty of smart people also know Texas historically underperforms when this is a heavyweight championship fight of undefeated teams. UT is 1-5 SU and 2-5 ATS when both teams are without a blemish (last time was 2011) and for some strange reason, Texas is 1-7 ATS the week before a bye. Finally, as big as Big Tex, the 55-foot statue that greets you in Fair Park: Texas is 4-16 ATS in its last twenty games against avenging conference opponents, including 0-9 ATS away from home.

Rating: 2 Units

Regardless of the Cowboys’ recent struggles, this is still Mike Gundy country, where the veteran OSU head coach is 22-9 SU and 18-11-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss. Revenge is certainly on the table tonight as well after Kansas State walloped the Pokes last year, 48-0, but while KSU is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 versus Big 12 revenge, that’s where the good news ends for the Wildcats. Head coach Chris Klieman is just 21-25-1 ATS away, including 3-17 SU and 5-14-1 ATS versus .500 or greater foes. Then there’s K-State’s 2-6 SU and 2-5 ATS ledger on Fridays, including 0-4 SUATS against foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the series host is on a 5-0 ATS roll, Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing with revenge, and 5-1 ATS as a conference home dog. Finally, OSU head coach Mike Gundy is 14-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in games when the Cowboys sport a .500 win-loss record, including 8-1 and 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record, as well as 7-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home.

Rating: 3 Units

Gamecocks appear to have lost their edge following a close-but-no-cigar loss to Georgia, as they are now 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) against fellow FBS foes this season. Keep an eye on the line as South Carolina is also a miserable 1-7 ATS as road dogs of 12 or less points. Tennessee has cashed in 4 of the last five series meetings and despite a wobbly 3-9 ATS record in its last 12 SEC games when seeking revenge, we’ll still lay the points in this major conference payback.

Rating: 3 Units

Texas is 0-7 ATS as conference favorites of more than 10 points, 1-5 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins, and 2-9 ATS at home before facing fellow conference defector Oklahoma. Kansas has covered 5 of the last six meetings in this series, is 5-2 ATS as conference dogs of more than 10 points, and 7-3 against the number overall with conference revenge. Finally, Kansas head coach Lance Leipold is 10-3-2 ATS in his career against undefeated opponents, including 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

Defending National Champions are 8-14-1 ATS as undefeated double digit road chalk versus .750 or greater opponents. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in Game 5 vs. conference foes and has a 3-1 spread mark as conference home dogs of 6 points or more. Freeze is 28-12 ATS as a dog, including 13-5 ATS versus undefeated foes. 

Big-10 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Vegas has made the Boilermakers the betting favorite, and that’s where things get ugly for Purdue. They are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games when laying points against avenging teams, 0-4 ATS at Ross-Ade last year and 0-3 SU at home this season. Purdue always seems tougher when they have the chip on their shoulder and here to knock it off is the fact that Purdue is 0-12 ATS as a conference favorite of 18 or less points.

Rating: 2 Units

Fisher is just 17-31 ATS versus avenging .500-or-greater conference opponents, including 2-12 ATS versus foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Hogs cashed our 4-star Best Bet winner last week and they’re coming right back for more this week. They are in the right role, going 14-6 ATS as a dog under head coach Sam Pittman, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 9 points.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has worked wonders during his 10-plus years at Lexington but he’s a money-burning 8-14 ATS at home in conference games versus foes off an ATS loss. And when it comes to taking on a conference team playing with revenge, the Cats had cashed just three tickets in their last ten tries. Finally, consider that Florida's HC is 11-2 ATS as a dog in conference games, including 7-0 SUATS as a dog of 5 or fewer points

Rating: 2 Units

Cardinals are gaining a lot of respect from Vegas, but the fact is they’ve lost the money in both of their away games so far. We don’t like that they have Notre Dame up next, nor their 1-6 ATS record when coming off consecutive wins as a favorite. NC State QB Brennan Armstrong has struggled to find his footing after transferring in from Virginia, but we expect a breakout game from him tonight. Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren’s 7-3 ATS as a home dog with revenge, including 5-1 ATS when coming off a win, assures us we’ll root for the home team to pull off a mild upset. 

Rating: 2 Units

Blue Raider boss Rick Stockstill stands 9-5 ATS in his career against .500 or fewer foes that are coming off two losses, including 7-2 ATS in conference play. He’s also in his 18th season in Murfreesboro, so regardless of whatever Western coach Tyson Helton throws at them, Stockstill has probably seen it before. After the requisite blowout defeat against Alabama to start the season, MTSU acquitted itself nicely in a narrow 23-19 loss at Missouri and should get its first outright road win of 2023 here.

Rating: 2 Units

This doesn’t scream Trojans blowout mainly because Southern Cal is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite of 15 or more, 0-3 ATS off rest the last two years, 1-6 ATS after allowing less than 10 points and 1-6 ATS in the front end of back-to-back road games. With Colorado looming, this may be a letdown game for Lincoln Riley’s squadron, Caleb Williams or not. Plus, ASU is 5-0 ATS in the last five in this series, 7-1 ATS as a home dog of 11 or more and 3-1 ATS in the 4th straight home game. Additionally, playing on any college football conference home dog of more than 18 points coming off consecutive home losses is 17-2 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Notre Dame is 14-6 SU in their last 20 Big Ten battles and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven, but use caution because they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS versus the Buckeyes since 1995. Also, don’t forget that Ohio State beat the Irish, 21-10, in the season opener at The Horseshoe last season, and the Golden Domers are 8-2 ATS at home with revenge.  The stats that will seal the deal with this one is the fact that home dogs who have managed to tally 40 or more points in each of their last THREE games in a row have gone 28-11 ATS in this role since 1980. Additionally, if these same home teams have won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games, they are 23-5 ATS in this role.

Rating: 3 Units

OSU West is a bad conference road favorite, going 1-4 ATS in the last two years. Meanwhile the Cougars have numbers in their corner: 6-3 ATS the last nine, 5-1 ATS in a third straight home game, and 5-1 ATS in the last six as a home dog. Game 4 has been good for WSU as they boast an 8-2 ATS mark. Finally, College football home teams in Game Four of the season are 18-9 ATS in a matchup of 3-0 teams, including 9-1 ATS against foes coming off an ATS loss.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Hogs got crushed last week in a stunning home loss against BYU last week but they actually outgained the Cougars 424-281 in total yardage. In addition, Arkansas Head coach Sam Pittman is 6-1-1 ATS on the road with revenge and the Razorbacks are 7-1-1 ATS away with conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Tigers have not had the best of it in this series, going 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Finally, LSU is 3-11-2 ATS as a favorite in conference home openers, including 0-7-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more points

Rating: 2 Units

MSU is 4-7 ATS as a home dog and you must wonder what can be said to raise the level of both play and attitude around the program. It’s the third straight year UMD has started 3-0 and the stats are overwhelmingly positive. Maryland is averaging 471 YPG of offense and 299 YPG of defense. Taulia Tagovialoa has become Maryland’s all-time TD pass leader to add to his other records he is sharing and is likely to break.  Finally consider that teams playing off their first loss of the year, at home in this role tend to perform poorly going 145-1605-4 ATS overall since 1980. Additionally, if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial loss, they fall to 46-73-2 ATS. This week’s host is Michigan State. When they are facing a conference opponent, they plummet to 20-41-1 ATS. 

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Nick Saban’s is 28-3 record versus former assistants, including 2-0 SUATS when the Tide is coming off consecutive point spread losses by an average win margin of 24 PPG. Additionally,  if those assistants are undefeated, Saban is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against them. Saban is 9-2 SUATS in his career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, including 8-0 SUATS the last eight games. Finally, Nick Saban is 21-7-1 ATS in conference games when coming off back-to-back ATS losses, including 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win and 4-0 SUATS versus undefeated foes (by an average win margin of 30 PPG)

Rating: 2 Units

Wisconsin has dominated this series going 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS the last 16 meetings, along with a 7-2 ATS mark before a Week of Rest, and an 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS record on Weekdays. Purdue comes in with a 2-17 ATS mark as a home dog in games they fail to win. They are also 1-8 ATS of late in the second of 3 straight home games. 

Rating: 3 Units

Steve Sarkisian became just the third former assistant to knock off Nick Saban. In the same vein, these same former assistants are just 1-6 ATS in follow-up contests when tackling .750 or greater foes. UT just 3-8 ATS at home before battling the Bears.  Finally, favorites of 16 or more points coming off an upset win over Alabama are 2-9 ATS since 1980, including 0-4 ATS if they were a dog of 7-plus points versus the Crimson Tide. 

Rating: 3 Units

Lane Kiffin has struggled at home in non-conference contests, going 8-13 ATS overall in his career, including 2-10 ATS at home when coming off a non-conference clash. We are concerned that Ole Miss had a tough time with Tulane last week without their star QB Michael Pratt. Kiffin saw his explosive RB Quinshon Judkins completely bottled up (18 carries for 48 yards) and could not put the Green Wave away until kicker Caden Davis hit a 56-yard field goal in the final two minutes. New Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key was a former Nick Saban assistant and knows the SEC, and his troops are averaging 41 PPG and are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats) to starts his tenure. We believe a take is in order tonight.

NCAAF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Boilermakers are 7-2 ATS in games in which both teams enter off an ATS win and 8-2 ATS as a home dog with a win percentage less than .666. Additionally, Home teams in Game Three of the season, who were in a bowl team last season and are coming off a road win that was preceded by a season-opening home loss, are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since 2017. Finally, Syracuse versus sub-.666 avenging foes, is just 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS in this role (0-11 the last eleven).

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Gators are 5-1 ATS in the last six, even with last year’s wild loss when UF was beaten 38-33 while a double-digit dog. UT on the other hand struggles early, their Game 3 record is an embarrassing 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in game three versus the SEC. After cake games versus FCS teams, the Vols limp around, going 1-5 ATS in the first game after an FCS opponent and in SEC openers, the Vols are also 1-5 ATS. Take them on the road and in games where the home team is seeking revenge, like this one, Tennessee is 3-10-1 ATS, including 0-6 ATS if the foe is coming off a win. Finally, Florida’s Bill Napier is 17-8 ATS as the underdog, including 3-0 SUATS at home.

Rating: 3 Units

Penn State is on a 13-2 and 11-3-1 ATS roll going back to last season and lands at No. 7 in this week’s AP Top 25, one of three Big Ten teams in the Top Ten. The Nittany Lions can also claim one of today’s biggest revenge motives, falling to the Illini, 20-18, as 24.5-point home chalk in their last meeting in 2021. PSU comes into this matchup, going 6-1 ATS the last seven as conference road favorite, 6-2 ATS with conference revenge, and 3-1 ATS in the last four series meetings. Finally, the visitor is 24-16 ATS in Penn State games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wildcats are always ready, or at least it seems that way, having suffered through just one ATS losing campaign over the last 15 years. Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman has compiled a 28-14 SU and 25-13 ATS record since taking the job in Manhattan. A week ago, they took on a Troy team which exceled in the dog role, and promptly issued a 42-13 drubbing that goes along with a 375-76 rushing yards edge in the early going, with QB Howard an efficient 5/2 in the early going. The Tigers are annually figured as an upcoming force, but have had only 2 winning seasons over the last 8 years, & are in off a 17-pt ATS loss in narrow SU escape vs Middle Tennessee. 

Rating: 2 Units

This year’s Tigers look mighty impressive after their 2-0 start, but the truth is they crushed a pair of cupcakes, beating Bethune Cookman, 56-14, and Arkansas State, 37-3.  Navy comes in with a 7-1 ATS mark when coming off a home win, and 5-0 ATS road dog of late. Pair those stats with the Tigers’ weak 1-6 ATS record the last seven versus non-conference foes and a downright dismal 0-5 ATS failure when playing off a SUATS win, and we just can’t go against Navy this evening. To top it off, Memphis isn't the best of home favorites going 3-10 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Saban’s record against former assistants is well-documented at 28-2 SU. What they don’t know is that he is 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS in those same games when favored by 18 or fewer points, including 4-0 SUATS at home. Add to that the fact that Bama is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS at home off a home game, while Texas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference road tilts and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus SEC opponents, and this looks like a Crimson Tide win-and cover

NCAAF Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Broncos after owning the No. 2 rushing attack in the Mountain West last season under OC Dirk Koetter, BSU’s top two RB’s George Holani and Ashton Jeanty managed just 95 yards on 20 carries against Washington under new OC Bush Hamdan (a former Boise QB). Meanwhile the Boise defense, which was ranked 11th in the nation in 2022, was lit up for 568 yards by Michael Penix and his cohorts. But keep in mind that the Broncos have survived in the past. Boise is now cast into the rare role of a home dog where they are 5-3 SUATS in this role since 1999. Finally, Boise State is 21-0 outright in its first home game of the season the past twenty-one years.

Rating: 3 Units

Didn't take Sooners long to shake the dust from last year's losing season, with 14-0 lead over Arkansas St in 1st 2:22. A 642-208 yard edge (38-10 first downs) in 73-0 cake walk. Ponies return  16 starters, holding La Tech to 11FDs & rushing yards, &limiting Bachmeier to 1/1, but they've allowed 31+ pts 10 of their last 14 games. Statwise, they're close to equal, but when Okies get rolling! Consider finally, that teams coming off a 60 point-plus win are 25-10 ATS as a favorite in game two, including 17-5 ATS at home.

NCAAF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Texas A&M has gone 1-5 on the scoreboard, 4-13-1 ATS overall in road openers and 0-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points. They haven't done well coming off a big win, going 4-11-1 ATS off a 40+ point win when meeting a team better than a .400 record. Miami comes in at 17-4 SU and 14-6-1 ATS at home in a battle of undefeated teams. Miami has also done well versus the SEC when a dog against a team coming off a win, going 3-0-1 ATS. Miami has done well versus unbeatens, going 4-1 SUATS and 13-5 ATS. Finally, Miami is 13-5 SUATS as a non-conference home dog, including 5-0 SUATS the last five, and 7-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 3 Units

Tulane was 11-2 ATS last season, and 7-1 ATS in game two of back-to-back home games. At home, coach Fritz is 37-18 SU and 30-16-1 ATS in his career. Ole Miss showed no mercy to Mercer, winning by 67 and racking up 667 yards, but now it’s time to hit the road, and the visitors from Oxford aren’t very good when favored by a decent number. In 2022 they were 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 17 or less, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-con road games.  Finally, they are also 3-7 ATS off a home win of 14 or more and 2-5 SUATS in road openers. 

Rating: 3 Units

Opening week underdogs of 20 or more points who pull an upset revenge win have been known to disappear the following week, as these teams are 0-6 SU and 1-4 ATS, with only ONE of the aforementioned squads coming in as a favorite. That was Southern Miss in 1989, who returned home following its 30-26 road win as 22.5-point dogs at Florida State. The Golden Eagles laid 7 points to Mississippi State, then immediately proceeded to lose the whole game to the Bulldogs and drop out of sight. They finished the season 0-5 SUATS against non-conference foes while concluding the season with a losing record. Finally, Nebraska head coach Rhule is 29-12 ATS away in his college career, as well as 9-3 ATS as a single-digit dog.

Rating: 2 Units

The Illini have some dismal point spread trends coming in to this one going 1-7 ATS before playing Penn State, 1-6 ATS on Weekdays, and 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS their last six regular season meetings with a Big 12 foe. Pair those facts with KU’s 5-0-1 ATS success in Kansas vs. Big Ten matchups and Illinois head coach Bret Bielema’s 4-9-1 ATS slide in road openers, including 2-8 ATS the last ten, and you have the winner.

NCAAF Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Clemson comes into this one with a 1-7 ATS mark as a road favorite in season openers, and a 3-7 ATS log in its last ten games on this field. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley from TCU to overhaul the Tigers’ stagnant offense. Duke comes in 3-1 SUATS in its last four lined home-openers as well as 3-0 SUATS in its last three lined season openers. More importantly, Duke was 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in Mike Elko’s debut last season. Finally, College football home dogs in season openers who return 17 or more starters are 43-16-1 ATS since 1990 if they won three or more games the previous season, including 12-2 ATS if they are a dog of more than 12 points.

NCAAF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games away from the Bayou when forced to lay points. Meanwhile, the Seminoles comes back with no less than 18 starters back from last year’s 10-win squad which improved on offense by 8 points and 104 yards per game, while the defense allowed 6 points less and 58 yards less per contest. They are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in this series since 1980, including 4-0 SUATS when facing an LSU squad that won six or more games the previous season. Finally, Florida State is 9-0-2 in 11 previous contests in Orlando.

Rating: 2 Units

OSU comes into this one 8-2 ATS in their last ten games versus MWC foes, and also closed the season on a 7-0 ATS run, thanks largely to a defense that improved 55 YPG. The Spartans were on the opposite side ATS finishing up 0-7 ATS their final seven games and it continued in a 56-28 loss to USC in Saturday night’s season opener. Former Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro threw 3 TD passes to WR Nick Nash against the Trojans and ran for an additional 52 yards on the ground. However, with SJSU just 1-26 SU in their last twenty-seven lined games against Pac-12 opponents.  To close it all out, consider that playing on any CFB away team as either a favorite or dog of fewer than 20 points in its season opener if they won 8 or more games last season and are facing an opponent coming off a loss of 8 or more points as a dog is 11-0 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 2 Units

This Coast-to-Coast matchup features a Coastal team that doesn't do well in games where they are a big underdog, going 4-8 ATS when taking double digits.  UCLA comes in off a winning season but lost it's bowl game. Keeping that in mind playing on any college football team in its season-opening game if they lost straight-up as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points last season is a money making 50-33-1 ATS in games since 1990 – a rock-solid 60% winning proposition. In addition, when these same teams open the season at home and have won 15 or more of their previous 28 home games they are a winning 29-10-1 ATS, including 16-3-1 ATS since 2007.

Rating: 3 Units

NC Coach Mack is 26-4 SU in season openers, (18-1 in the last 19) and he brings back 18 starters hungry for revenge and looking to compete with pre-season favorites Florida State and Clemson. South Carolina, hasn’t been very successful versus ACC teams lately, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in the last six. When they play in neutral territory, they are only 1-3 SUATS. Finally, UNC IS 5-0 as a favorite of fewer than four points against SEC foes.

Rating: 3 Units

WKU has brought in a pair of WRs from Auburn and Tennessee to join wideout Malachi Corley (led college football in yards after catch with 975 and missed tackles forced with 40), so look for W. Kentucky to add to a 5-1-1 ATS record in lined openers. South Florida has not faired well in each of the last three meetings, going 0-3 ATS against Western.  Additionally, they are 4-29 overall out-right their L33 contests. The Bulls are also on a 1-16 straight-up run which is why first-year head coach Alex Golesh is now in Tampa.

Rating: 3 Units

NIU is 30th in returning players and they’ve hung with BC in two losses, both by three points. In 2021 the Huskies won nine, last season they won just three times. We like the 2021 MAC champs to ride a healthy QB in Rocky Lombardi to connect with WR Treyvon Rudolph, more than three times, to keep this one respectable.  Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Hawaii returns to the Island with a 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS mark in their last ten lined home openers, including 6-1 ATS when taking points. Standford has a new HC and new CFB head coaches are 7-18-2 ATS in Game One with a team that won three or fewer games the previous season. Adding to HC Taylor’s issues is Stanford’s horrible 1-8 SUATS mark in its last nine road games. To finish it off, consider that Hawaii is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a home dog in Pac-12 games since 2010.

Rating: 2 Units

Florida edged the Utes, 29-26, as a 5.5-point home dog in last year’s season opener, however keep in mind that Utah HC Whittingham is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in his career when seeking revenge from a non-conference loss. He’s also 15-0 outright in home openers against non-conference opponents with an average winning score of 38-14. Florida’s Napier does bring a 17-7 ATS dog log into the fray, including 5-1 last season, but Utah looks to be so loaded.

Rating: 2 Units

Both of these teams struggled last season under rookie head coaches, but the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs clearly had the better offseason, bringing in a top notch quarterback in Bachmeier from Boise State and a promising receiver in Crawford from Nebraska. they also have more talent coming back, including two top receivers and their leading running back. Tech could seriously challenge for the Conference USA title so they should get off to a good start here. With the firepower they have, giving up 11.5 points doesn't seem like much. And for the Panthers, this could be another long year as they lost some key pieces. Take Louisiana Tech to cover the spread.

NCAAF Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

Vanderbilt has been more than 7-point favorites in a season opener five times since 1980 and lost four games outright. They’re just 5-10 ATS as favorites of 14 or more points in nonconference clashes, including 0-4 ATS in the last four. Hawaii likely comes into this one seething from a 63-10 season-opening loss to Vanderbilt in Timmy Chang’s debut last year. A 9-5 ATS mark in season-opening road games works, as does momentum for a 6-1 ATS season-ending effort the previous year.

Rating: 2 Units

Former DC, Brian Newberry, takes over from Ken Niuamatolo after 16 seasons as the Navy head man on the sidelines. Newberry’s defense allowed a respectable 347.5 YPG in his four seasons in Annapolis. He does inherit 18 starters from last year’s squad. Consider that the Irish are only 19-28 ATS versus the military schools since 1990, including 13-27 ATS at home or on a neutral field. As an added bonus to this pick the last time the Navy endured three consecutive losing seasons, they won 8 games and went bowling. Finally, remember that Military football dogs of 20-plus points are 82-39-4 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

The fortuitous Bulldogs, who are 28-3 with QB Stetson Bennett behind center, will be looking to become the first team to repeat as a national champion since the inception of the CFP nine years ago. However, the double-digit line leaves some wiggle room for TCU backers, as the favorite in CFP championship games is 3-5 ATS all time, including 0-2 SUATS versus non-undefeated foes coming off a SU underdog win. Then there’s the 0-4 SUATS failure of the four defending champions who found their way back to the championship game the following season (see Alabama last year). Additionally, Dykes is 10-5 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when his team sports a .900 or greater win percentage and are taking on undefeated foes, including 7-0-1 ATS after scoring 39 or more points in their last game. Let’s also not forget that .750 or greater double-digit bowl dogs coming off a SU underdog win are 5-0 ATS the last fifteen years, and bowl dogs of more than 12 points are 7-0 ATS versus .900 or greater opponents the last ten years.

Rating: 2 Units

The three-loss Utes actually improved their numbers on both sides of the ball in 2022; yet fell short of their targeted goal of being the fi rst PAC12 school since 2016 to make their way to the College Football Playoff. And while the Nittany Lions were never a real threat to make the CFP this season, they have a chance to close out the campaign with their fourth 11-win season in the past seven years with a victory against Utah today. It’s been a season of two tales for James Franklin’s troops who started the 2022 season 5-0 and closed it out going 4-0. The one thing that jumps off the page in this contest is PSU’s penchant for staying on a roll as they ride a jaw-dropping 16-3 SU and 17-1 ATS mark into this game when coming off a pair of SUATS wins. It’s numbers like those, and incentive to boot, that puts them on our playlist today. 

Rating: 3 Units

In his lone season at Oklahoma, Heisman Trophy winning QB Caleb Williams recorded 1,912 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 442 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns in 11 games. This season with the Trojans, Williams threw for 4,075 yards, 37 touchdowns (tied for most in the nation), and four interceptions, while running for 372 yards and 10 touchdowns on 109 carries. Consider that first year coaches favored in bowl games are just 16-32 ATS against foes coming off a win, and Pac-12 bowlers who allow over 25 PPG are 20-42 ATS, including 0-14 ATS the last 14. With that, finally review that the bowl team with the Heisman Trophy winner is 0-8 SUATS off SUATS loss since 1980. 

Rating: 2 Units

If Brohm DNA runs through brother Brian’s veins it should prove fruitful as big brother Jeff is 11-0 ATS as a dog when coming off a loss – including 10-0 with Purdue. Conference title game losers are 8-2 ATS as double-digit bowl dogs. The biggest hurdle the Makers need to get over is the lack of success by teams in bowl games that won as a dog of more than 6 points in a bowl game the previous season. Meanwhile, LSU enters behind high profile boss Brian Kelly who is 6-0 SU and 2-3-1 ATS in his career against Purdue. The bad news is BK is also just 5-8 ATS in bowl games, including 0-3 ATS when favored by 7-plus points. So, while a huge coaching mismatch is in the making, the fact also remains that the Tigers were one win from capturing the SEC championship and will likely look at this contest as little more than a full uniform scrimmage. Expect the ‘Brohm factor’ to lead to another payday

Rating: 2 Units

All things being equal, we’d be ordering up a big fade against the Bulldogs in this bowl game were it not for the sudden passing of Leach, and the feeling here is the effect of the Grim  Reaper’s presence will outweigh any notion of “winning one for the Gipper”. Don’t consider an Over play, either, not with Illinois owning the nation’s No. 1 Scoring Defense (12.25), and the Bulldogs holding four opponents to season-low yardage in 2022. The bottom line is we see Illinois playing up to the standard of excellence they achieved the season in a big win for head coach Bret Bielema.

Bowl Game of the Year

Rating: 5 Units

This will be Georgia’s third time playing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season, with the Bulldogs dominating both Oregon and LSU by a combined margin of 99-30. In addition to a virtually impenetrable defense, veteran QB Stetson Bennett is complimented by a three-headed rushing attack featuring RB with Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards, and Kendall Milton, who have all rushed for more than 500 yards in 2022. Meanwhile, OSU receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka just might be the best receiver tandem in the country for Heisman finalist QB CJ Stroud. Yes, bowlers like UGA who allow fewer than 14.5 PPG that won their conference title game are 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS all-time, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS against foes who allow 14.5 or more PPG.

Rating: 3 Units

No Alabama, Tennessee, Clemson, Utah, etc, but the only 4 teams in the land with less than 2 losses (Michigan & Georgia, the only perfect squads. When Harbaugh took over the reins at Ann Arbor in '15, great things were expected, & realized with 7 straight bowl seasons, with 42-27, 45-23 wins over archrival Ohio St L2 yrs, but couldn't close the deal: 0-5 SU/ATS (-8, -15½, -30, -11½, -15½ pts) in L5 bowls. TCU Horned Frogs were hosed from the playoffs in '14, despite their 11-1 log, proving it with 42-3 (-3½) Peach Bowl rout of Ole Miss. Frog QB Duggan (2nd in Heisman voting) at 30/4, with Wolves' McCarthy at 20/3. No RB Corum (1,436 yds) for Mich, but note UM's #3 "D" vs Tcu's #74. Take the TD. 

Rating: 2 Units

With Levis, who was 17-7 in his starts for the Cats since transferring from Penn State in 2021, having left the team, redshirt FR Kaiya Sheron will fill in. Complicating matters, UK head coach Mark Stoops fired offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello after just one season. He sure as hell won’t hire Iowa OC Brian Ferentz for a replacement, not when Ferentz presided over an offense so horrible in 2022 that one fan showed up for a game holding a sign that read, “I’m only here for the punter.” So how did a 17 PPG offense ranked No. 130 in First Down Offense land a bowl game? A bad-to-the-bone Hawkeyes defense, that’s how. Iowa is tied for No. 2 nationally in Defensive TDs (5) and holds the No. 4 spot in overall Total Team Defense. Jack Campbell won the Butkus Award as the nation’s top linebacker and the ‘D’ held 5 foes to season-low yards. Kentucky’s defense also came to play this season, holding 5 foes to season-low yards. We’ll summon the ‘R’ word to cement our pick: Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz is 6-1 ATS with revenge off a loss of 7 or more points, while Wildcats HC Stoops is just 4-9 ATS versus a foe off a loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Always an unusual season, when the Crimson Tide of Alabama is not a participant in the Final Four Playoffs (just the 2nd time in 8 seasons). Years of excellence continue on, scoring 30+ pts in 46 of their last 53 games, with their only SU losses TY: 52-49 in L0:00 at Tenn, & 32-31 on 2-pt OT conversion at Lsu. Heisman winner Young: just 2/0 & 1/1 in those losses. Can 'Tide prepare properly for this, after such close misses, along with multiple transfer portal cases? Kansas State Wildcats took TCU for Big12 Title in OT. QBs Howard & Martinez are more than capable, as is the 2nd coming of Darren Sproles in Deuce Vaughn. Take the TD.

Rating: 2 Units

It took Dabo Swinney the entire season to pull the plug on erratic starter D.J. Uiagalelei for Cade Klubnik, a former 5* recruit for the Tigers. Swinney must have informed all parties concerned that the move was permanent, causing Uiagalelei to immediately hit the transfer portal. For the Vols from Rocky Top, backup QB Joe Milton, who transferred in from Michigan, takes over for Hendon Hooker, who was enjoying a marvelous season until suffering an ACL tear against South Carolina. Tennessee does boast the No. 1 ranked offense in the nation (538 YPG), but that was largely behind QB Hooker. In addition, WR Jalin Hyatt, who won the Biletnikoff Award, is undecided. We know the Volunteers have played on some big stages this year, but this sort of thing is ‘been there, done that’ for the Tigers, as Swinney stands 29-9 ATS away off a double-digit SUATS win, including 12-1 ATS the last 13. Both teams have played their share of undisciplined football in 2022, but Tennessee takes the trophy as the nation’s No. 124 team in most Penalties Per Game (8.00). Yes, we know Clemmie is just 3-4 ITS (In The Stats) in its last seven games of the season; however, that’s not enough to keep us off the striped cats.

Rating: 2 Units

First-year coaches favored in bowl games are 16-32 ATS vs. foes coming off a win, including 2-12 ATS against those off a SU underdog win. Uh oh. Then there’s the matter of Notre Dame’s negligent 7-15 SUATS failure in its last 17 bowl games, including 3-14 ATS vs. foes off a win. And we wouldn’t be doing our job if we left out this damning stat: the Irish are ranked No. 129 in Red Zone Defense, worst of all bowler. Head coach Shane Beamer owns a solid 6-1 ATS record vs. non-conference foes and his team won four games SU as underdogs this campaign. Head coach Marcus Freeman will have the Irish back in the thick of it before long, but it’s a little early to back them here considering SC has gone 6-2 SUATS in its previous 8 bowl games.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite a cross country trip for the U.C.L.A. Bruins & the Pittsburgh Panthers, but that didn't keep them from facing each other 14 times, many in season openers, from 1958 thru 1972, with the Bruins holding a 9-5 edge. For Pitt, this makes it 13 bowls in 15 years (4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS), while for the Uclans, this is their first such holiday affair since '17 (35-17 Cactus Bowl loss to Kansas St). Similar seasons for these 2, with Bruins reaching 9th in the polls off their 6-0 start, flattening out, with nary a cover since Nov 5th. Panther in a 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) windup, but have lost QB Slovis, as well as AA DL Kancey. Simply cannot ignore such significant turns.

Rating: 2 Units

Maryland is staring down some ugly ATS numbers here: 1-6-1 SUATS as a bowler if not favored by 3 or more points, sub .600 bowlers off a shutout win are 1-7 ATS, and head Terrapin Locksley is a back-in-the-shell 3-39 SU and 15-27 ATS versus a foe with the better record. Yikes. The bad news for State is its miserable 1-8 ITS (In The Stats) record versus bowlers in 2022, but with Doeren boasting a 6-0 ATS record in bowl games versus a foe off a SUATS win, and the Pack having cashed a ticket in 10 of its last 13 bowls, we’ll back DD over Mike Locksley any day of the week.

Rating: 2 Units

Washington had a phenomenal season which earned first-year coach Kalen DeBoer a contract extension, winning ten games and seeing QB Michael Penix Jr lead the nation in passing. They have won six in a row, but the best news is that Penix will return for his senior season next year. However, the Huskies find themselves squarely locked inside the fact that Pac-12 bowl teams are 1-23 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a win. Even worse, Pac-12 bowlers who allow more than 25 PPG are 20-42 ATS, including 0-14 ATS in their last 14 bowl appearances. Finally, this is virtually a home game for the Horns, (they posted dominating wins here the 2020 and 2019 editions of the Alamo Bowl), and even if running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson opt out, Sarkisian has plenty of weapons to slice through a less-than-stellar Washington defense

Rating: 3 Units

These 2 powers meet for the 8th time; first since '11, & 5th in a bowl, including the '00 Orange, when the Oklahoma Sooners (+10) beat the Florida Sate Seminoles 13-2, for the National Championship (Stoops' first year). By the way, the 'Noles entered that one with a 42-10 ppg edge. This makes it 26 straight bowl years for the Sooners (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS L10), while the Sems entered TY off 4 consecutive losing seasons. But 18 returning starters have turned it around, with a 5-0 windup (43.6 ppg), ranking 13th & 14th in total "O" & "D". Last 3 of Okies' 6 losses have come by just 3 pts, but cannot hide a "D" which ranks 120th in the land. 'Noles!

Rating: 2 Units

For P.J. Fleck, it was also a tale of two cities, especially on offense, as they averaged 543 YPG in their first four games of the season and 335 YPG in their last eight. However, his stop unit held up their end of the bargain, finishing 5th in the nation in Team Defense. Still, we feel this number is a bit too high, since Syracuse is 13-3-1 SU and 13-4 ATS in bowl games since 1988. For head coach Dino Babers, there will be some adjustments with OC Robert Anae leaving for NC State, but quarterbacks’ coach Jason Beck has been promoted to the position after doing a great job overseeing QB Garrett Schrader this season. Besides that, the most interesting match-up at Yankee Stadium will be the running backs, with Sean Tucker recording his second straight 1,000-yard season for the Orange and Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim notching over 100 in each of his first 11 games. QB Tanner Morgan was always the weak link on the Gopher offense, but with Athan Kaliakmanis taking over, Minny should be in good shape. Finally, here is an obscure fact you might consider: Bowl favorites off a win of 7 or more points are 0-6 ATS on Thursdays.

Rating: 2 Units

A 1-4 finish with losses to LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl showed Lane Kiffin he still has plenty to accomplish in Oxford. Bowlers coming off 3 SU losses are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS versus a foe off back-to-back SUATS wins. Conversely, TTRR enters on a 3-0 SUATS win skein to close the season. That’s the good news. The bad news is, like a grim reaper, that bowlers coming in on 3-0 SUATS win skein are 9-27 SU and 8-28 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a SU favorite loss. Worse, the Techsters were outgained in all three of the wins, and not to pile on, Texas Tech is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games.

Rating: 2 Units

We feel like this is a lean to the Heels, since the underdog is 7-0-2 ATS in Tar Heels/Pac-12 contests and conference title game losers are 8-2 ATS as double-digit bowl dogs. However, be aware that UNC is 0-4 SUATS in bowl games when they allow more than 25 points. Oregon’s recovery from that pounding they took from Georgia in the opener was remarkable, but the campaign lost its luster after losing to Washington in November and a total collapse against the Beavers in the Civil War finale. That drives us into a take here.

Rating: 3 Units

Kansas had a brilliant 5-0 start but lost 6 of their last seven games after the tough Big 12 schedule kicked in (4th toughest schedule in the nation). The Razorbacks had an even tougher row to hoe, with opponents sporting a combined win percentage of 62.4%, which was the country’s second-toughest slate. Keep in mind that when two .500 bowl teams meet like this, the underdog is 0-5 ATS if coming off consecutive losses. That said, we feel that the combination of facing such an extremely tough schedule and coming off an upset loss fi gures to bring the Razorbacks in fully focused here. Across the fi eld, the Jayhawks are bowling for the fi rst time since 2008 and are just happy not to be home for the holidays. The future is bright for both teams with the two quarterbacks both returning next season, but as for today, we think this game has the look of a serious crushing written all over it.

Rating: 3 Units

Blue Devils were 3-1 ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowlers this season. On the flip side, the Knights went just 4-3 this season after a 5-1 start, and limp into bowl season following a beating in the AAC title game, losing to Tulane 45-28 while allowing 648 yards of offense. Teams who won a bowl game last year straight up as underdogs of a TD or more are 14-28 ATS when coming off an ATS loss. These two schools meet for the first time, and the coaching match-up today is intriguing: veteran Gus Malzahn has taken his teams to the post-season in all 11 years at the helm, while Elko and his players are finding a completely new experience ahead of them. We look for the Dukies to complete a dream season with a victory.

Rating: 2 Units

All indications are that senior Chase Wolf (just 31 passes thrown) will start in place of Graham Mertz for the Badgers. That brings this match-up down to defense, where Wisconsin has always been strong – their 3rd ranked overall defense in games versus fellow bowlers this season has held 3 foes to season low yardage in 2022. Both teams present good numbers here, including Mike Gundy’s 15-8-1 ATS record off a SU favorite loss and 12-5 spread mark off back-to-back losses. He has also covered the number in six straight bowl games. Meanwhile, Wisky is 8-2 ATS as a bowler versus a foe coming off SUATS loss, and Big Ten bowlers are 22-12 ATS against Big 12 bowlers, including 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss. Badgers get the win in their 21st straight bowl appearance.

Rating: 2 Units

For the Pirates, fifth-year senior QB Holton Ahlers completed 67.1 percent of his passes this season for 3,408 yards, tossed 23 touchdowns compared to fi ve picks, and he also rushed for 5 TDs. The Pirates will not have NFL prospect TE Ryan Brown for this game, as he has opted out to prepare for the draft, but Ahlers will not be without his top two targets: wide receiver Isaiah Winstead recorded 82 catches for 1,012 yards, while C.J. Johnson will enter the bowl game 67 yards away from his first 1,000-yard receiving campaign. The Chanticleers’ rough finish may be of concern to some, but it might work to their advantage, as conference title game losers are 8-2 ATS as double-digit bowl dogs. Take the points

Rating: 2 Units

Looking back, we realize that the Aggies go from the top of the mountain after capturing the Mountain West title and winning the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl game to this minor bowl game. Their star player this season was speedy RB Calvin Tyler, Jr, who rushed for over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs. Keep in mind that Mountain West bowl teams are 5-0 SUATS against the AAC and Anderson is 4-1 ATS himself on the road versus AAC foes. We don’t figure them to win this game, but the points are simply too good to pass.

Rating: 2 Units

Bulls were a “mission team” in 2022 after last season’s 4-8 effort snapped a three-year bowl skein. Following an 0-3 start, they went on to win their next 5 games before hitting the skids again with another 3-game losing streak. They literally rallied back with a late 23-22 win over Akron to cement this bid, a game that was postponed by the 6 feet of snow that fell on Buffalo in mid-November’s monumental storm, then rescheduled due to its importance for the Buffalo program. Comparing spread records this season versus bowl teams, Buffy was 5-1 ATS, while GSU was 1-4 ATS against bowlers. Our money is on the Bulls

Rating: 2 Units

Like NMSU, the Bee Gees closed like a racehorse, winning four of their six games to earn a bowl bid for the first time since 2015. They dropped 4-touchdown losses early in the season to UCLA and Mississippi State, but once MACtion got underway, the Falcons went 6-2 in conference play. To be quite honest, if you look at the statistical ranking of the Falcons, you might be surprised to find out that they actually qualified for a bowl game, since the Bee Gees rank 105th in offense and 106th in the nation on D. We also look at Kill’s excellent record versus MAC foes: 20-7 SU and 16-10-1 ATS, including 18-2 SU if that opponent is .500 or below. With that, we’ll look for the Aggies to notch a win in only their second bowl game since 1960.

Rating: 2 Units

Aztecs (7-5) were two different teams this year -- one before Mississippi State transfer Jalen Mayden took over at quarterback and another after he got the job from Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister. Prior to Mayden's insertion, San Diego State went 2-3 and averaged just 19 points per game with an inefficient passing attack. With Mayden running the offense, the Aztecs posted a 5-2 mark and scored 23 points per game. Mayden has completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 1,721 yards and 10 touchdowns, giving the offense some big-play potential it didn't have in recent years. He has thrown seven interceptions. Aztecs coach Brady Hoke said the bowl trip is a reward for his team and also a chance to win the last game of the year. To cap it off, MTSU was mugged in games against fellow bowlers this season (0-3 SUATS and In The Stats). 

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers finished strong after getting thumped by the Vols, and an earlier October win on the road at South Carolina looks even better now when you consider that the Gamecocks beat both Tennessee and Clemson in their fi nal two games. Unfortunately, SEC bowlers coming off a SU underdog win are 3-9-2 ATS versus a foe coming off a SUATS loss, and Mizzou is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS as a bowler coming off a win. Mizzou HC Eliah Drinkwitz is also 1-5 SUATS against an opponent coming off a SUATS loss if he has the better record.

Rating: 2 Units

It has been a wildly uneven year in Lafayette, LA, but give props to Coach Michael Desormeaux for holding together the shards left by Billy Napier’s departure to Florida. UH triumphs if Clayton Tune is hitting the scales and avoiding the sour notes. The Cougars QB has 37 TD passes, tied with the top two Heisman candidates – winner Caleb Williams and third-place CJ Stroud, but has thrown a pick in his last four games. UL’s offense is more balanced, having 15 players with 100 or more scrimmage yards this season, tied with SMU and Texas Tech. Discipline (sometimes) and emotion versus balance makes for an intriguing matchup.

Bowl Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The military teams take advantage of success, going a combined 29-9 ATS when coming off a win. AFA is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 bowl games and in addition to being stingy at giving the ball back, they carry the top overall defense in the country. This bowl game is to honor the military and they give back by going 6-3 ATS in the last 9, including 4-1 ATS as the dog. Meanwhile, Da Bears are a sub-standard 0-3 SUATS as single digit favorites while the Big 12 has been small ATS versus military teams, going 0-3. If you are a trend lover, BU is 3-14 ATS on Thursdays plus this game is at TCU’s home field, where Baylor has lost five of the last seven, both SU and ATS. If that’s not a strong persuader, consider that Playing on any greater than .667 college military team in a bowl game that scored fewer than 50 points in its last game if they are not off a loss and their team’s overall net Yards Per Rush is greater than 1.0. is 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

WKU has scored 45+ points in four bowl games since 2014, most in FBS during that span. WKU QB Austin Reed, who turned down new Louisville Head Coach Jeff Brohm’s request to transfer, meaning Reed is returning to the Hilltoppers with his 4,247 pass yards and 36 TDs. While Reed may not know this, sticking with Coach Tyson Helton can pay off, since Tyson often puts foes in a corner, going 18-5 SU and 16-6-1 ATS vs. a team off an ATS defeat. WKU is generally good at putting money in people’s pockets with a 3-0 SUATS mark versus the devilish .666-win percentage types and 13-2 ATS as a dog vs. the Fun Belt. Meantime, South Alabama is seeking the first bowl win in program history. The Jaguars are a toothless 0-2 SUATS in bowl games and have also struggled versus C-USA, going 1-3 SUATS against .500 or better.

Rating: 2 Units

Toledo won the MAC for Head Coach Jason Candle but MACtion seems to run out of steam after November. Toledo is 3-9 ATS in bowl games since 2002, including 1-7 ATS off a win of 7 or more points. MAC Bowlers are 6-28 SU and 8-25-1 ATS vs. foes coming off a loss. Liberty has a much more distinguished post-season history, going 3-0 SUATS, 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS versus MAC opponents since joining FBS. 

Rating: 2 Units

Armed with one of the top defenses in the country, Marshall will take on a surprisingly improved UConn team in the Myrtle Beach Bowl on Monday in Conway, S.C. UConn (6-6) is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2015 under first-year coach Jim Mora Jr. Before losing their regular season finale to Army, the Huskies had a stretch of five wins in six games, capped off by an upset victory over then-ranked No. 19 Liberty. And who did the Huskies play in that 2015 bowl game? Marshall.  The Thundering Herd (8-4) have been a regular attendee during bowl season recently. This will be the 11th time in the past 14 seasons that Marshall has gone bowling -- a streak that began in 2009 and stretches across three head-coaching tenures. The Herd have lost their last three bowl games, though, and are looking for their first postseason win since 2018.  To clinch this pick consider that Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game while Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December.

Rating: 2 Units

History is not riding with the Ponies as they are 0-5 ATS as a front-runner plus 0-3 SU all-time in this series. SMU is also 0-4 ATS versus foes off an ATS win, and 0-6 UNDER on a neutral fi eld. It’s Mustangs’ boss Rhett Lashlee’s first bowl game as a head coach, and first timers are 16-32 ATS vs. teams coming off a win. BYU is 5-0 ATS as a dog off three wins and 5-1 ATS versus a .500 or better AAC team not coming off consecutive wins, plus Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake is a stern 16-7 ATS when a dog of 12 points or less. He will be without star RB Lopini Kotoa but is holding out hope his number one QB Jaren Hall can play on a bum ankle. Finally, BYU is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS vs. foes with an identical record, including 5-0 when the Cougars are coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 3 Units

If UF finds the red zone, they’ll find the nation’s best red zone defense but that’s about the best number for Beavers fans because the gambling numbers favor the orange and blue. OSU West is 0-4 SU vs SEC foes, 1-4 SUATS in bowls against a team not coming off a double-digit loss. The Pac-12 is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS vs. the SEC… and it gets a little worse for Oregon State. UF is 5-1 ATS versus Pac-12 teams, all as the underdog, and 7-2 ATS as a bowler not favored by 7 or more points. First year head coaches are 10-4 ATS as a double-digit dog and UF coach Billy Napier is 17-6 ATS as a puppy backed up by a powerful 8-0 ATS run in the last eight. The Pac-12 also limps in with a 15-34-1 ATS record as a bowl favorite. This is a classic conflict of favorable numbers for UF, but the other team is favored and facing a QB that’s never played a meaningful down since his senior year at Chaparral High in Scottsdale, AZ. And our head coach is 17-5 ATS as a dog.

Rating: 2 Units

Trojans held three teams to season low yardage this year. Troy’s defensive 11 held the seven bowl teams they faced to 17 PPG/326 YPG. They’re 5-0 ATS when receiving points and after all isn’t receiving what the holiday season is all about? UTSA struggles defensively against bowlers, 29 PPG/409 YPG and has yet to win a bowl game, going 0-3 and that includes not covering once. Troy’s first year head coach Jon Sumrall knows his Trojans have won their last four bowl games. 

Rating: 2 Units

Trent Dilfer is perhaps the most maligned winning QB in Super Bowl history fairly or unfairly, but after a strong stint coaching HS ball in Tennessee, he’s the coach in waiting for UAB. Bryant Vincent has this bowl assignment, and his Blazers have gone 3-0 ATS in bowls since 2018. Yes, the RedHawks are 4-0 ATS in bowls since 2011, but this year against bowl teams M-OH has had its problems going 0-5 SU, 1-4 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats). Chuck Martin’s Miamians are also a scary 3-8 In the Stats this season and against fellow bowlers are an average -131. Yecch. Toss in the MAC’s inability to conquer C-USA in the bowls, going 5-18 SU and 7-15-1 ATS, and it’s hard to get excited about Miami winning. Meanwhile, the Blazers are a hearty 15-7-1 ATS as double-digit chalk, including 3-0 ATS in non-conference contests. UAB has also held four foes to season-low yardage, and Martin seems to be conservative in bowl games for some odd reason. Blazers’ players who plan on coming back next season will be very invested in putting on a good show for the incoming Dilfer, and motivation is perhaps the biggest non-numerical reason to pick with or against a team during bowl season.

Rating: 2 Units

Ken “Nine Lives” Niumatalolo and the Midshipmen, who are staring down the barrel of their third straight losing campaign. Even so, a win against Army can cure a lot of ills, and Navy backers appear to be on board, moving the line from Army -1.5 to pick in just a few hours – not that strange considering the Mids have gone 16-4 SU in the last 20 meetings while being made the favorite 17 times. However, note that the team with the better win percentage in this series (Army this season), is 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS since 1980 in games in which Air Force has already claimed the CIC trophy. Then there’s the matter of the Black Knights’ 17-13 loss to Navy in 2021 as 7-point chalk. Revenge is the ultimate weapon in military battles, especially for those seeking it against foes sporting a losing record, as they’ve gone 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS in this role in these military matters since 1995, including 5-0 ATS for those teams who score 34 or more points in their previous game. The series has also seen Army go 7-1 ATS with revenge when coming off a win, including 4-0 ATS the last four years.

Rating: 3 Units

We’re sure those who watched the Wolverines in the second half last week have already plunked their money down on the maize-and-blue, but we think the Boilers deserve more than just a passing glance. Purdue is 3-0 in its last 3 Neutral Site games, 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of 8 or more points, 6-1 ATS off a double-digit Big Ten road win, and 4-1 ATS versus undefeated conference opponents. Word out of Michigan is that RB Corum is not expected to play, as Harbaugh plans to save him for the playoffs. But even without him, the Wolverines rushed for 254 yards against Ohio State, a stat that does not bode well for the Boilers considering they are just 2-5 ATS this season in games where they’ve lost the overland battle. However, before going with Michigan know that head coach Jeff Brohm brings a 28-14 ATS career dog log into this contest, including 7-1 ATS versus foes coming off an ATS win of 20+ points. And while a Buckeye letdown did not occur in this game last year when Michigan destroyed Iowa, we’d be shocked if it doesn’t rear its head here today. In what marks the first meeting for these two programs since 2017, we look for the Wolverines to fall to 3-10 ATS when playing off a SU road dog win. 

Rating: 2 Units

Tigers were clearly looking ahead to tonight’s title game against the Bulldogs when they were undressed by Texas A&M, 38-23. That defeat ended a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run for 1st-year head coach Brian Kelly and his Bengals, and the early money has poured in on defending national champ Georgia. It’s important to remember, though, that Kelly is 18-7 ATS as a dog when coming off a loss in his CFB career, including 11-3 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents. Solid history for LSU in this series of late with a 4-0-1 ATS skein in progress, plus the bayou boys have cashed 7 straight tickets in Neutral Site games. Kelly’s heroes are also 8-3 ATS as dogs of 7 or more points while Georgia is just 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS when seeking revenge in this series (Tigers took down Dawgs, 37-10, in 2019 SEC title bout).

Rating: 2 Units

So, even though Boise clobbered Fresno this year, 40-20, we know that the wild horses are a whimpering 1-7 ATS after scoring 40 or more points, plus 1-4 ATS in Mountain West Conference title games. We also know that Fresno stands 4-0 ATS in MWC championship contests, with three of those tickets coming against the Broncos. And since BSU has won two straight against the west coasters, its poor 2-5 ATS record at home versus a foe seeking double revenge comes into play here against the Bulldogs’ outstanding 7-1-1 ATS record when playing with double revenge. To cap it off, Fresno's HC has a penchant for getting his teams up in double revenge situations, going 10-5 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in his career, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS with his current school. 

Rating; 2 Units

Despite losing starting QB Adrian Martinez on the first series of the game, the Wildcats bounced back to take a 28-10 lead at the half under backup QB Will Howard. Unfortunately for KSU, Howard and a half dozen other major K-State contributors were felled by injury in the second stanza, and the Horned Frogs took advantage by scoring the final 28 points of the game. Howard looks ready to go here, and his team has gone 4-1 ATS of late in this series, 4-0 ATS the last four Neutral Site games, and 5-2 ATS with single conference revenge. That goes hand in hand with TCU’s 0-4 ATS failure in Neutral Site games, and its 3-6 ATS mark as Big 12 road chalk of 6 or fewer points. How much longer can the Froggies keep their unbeaten streak going while the pressure increases exponentially with every passing week?

Rating: 3 Units

Pac12 hardly lacks for excitement, with barnburners the rule, rather than the exception, including this year's regular season meeting. The Trojans have moved to the #4 spot in the nation, with a win here cementing a slot in the national playoffs. Just a single loss, & that by a mere pt, trailing only Tennessee & Ohio St in scoring, as transfer QB Williams is now 34-3. And, as has been the case all season, Troy has the Top Turnover ratio in the land, now at +23. Four times the charm for USC here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chaparral Birds enter on a 9-game win streak following a 1-2 start, but have cashed a ticket in just four of those games. The fact that UTSA has been double-digit chalk in six of its last seven contests makes the opening line of -8.5 look mighty appealing against a North Texas team that lost on this field six weeks ago, 31-21. However, sub .600 teams in conference championship games seeking same-season revenge are 6-0 ATS since 2000. The Eagles also own a profitable 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS mark against foes who surrender 22 or more PPG this season. While the game host’s 7-2 and 6-3 ATS success in C-USA title bouts points to the Roadrunners, consider that same-season revengers taking on opponents coming off a win who scored 34-plus points in their last contest, are 10-2 ATS since 2010. That, and UNT’s 22-point demolition of UTSA last year – Traylor’s worst loss with the Roadrunners – is enough to put us on the dudes from Denton tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The host in this series has covered seven of the last eight meetings. The loss of USC running back Travis Dye in the Colorado game was every bit as sad and unfortunate as the injury Hendon Hooker suffered in Tennessee’s game on Saturday, but senior Austin Jones stepped in ably against UCLA, rushing for 120 yards and 2 TDs. In addition, All-American WR Jordan Addison returned from his own knee injury with a bang, catching 11 balls for 178 yards. The 13th-ranked Irish looked unstoppable while shutting out Boston College last week, and smoked Clemson two weeks earlier, but remember, they have losses this season to both Marshall and Stanford.

Upset of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

App State is 2-7 ATS in lined games, 1-7 ATS as a favorite (!) and 0-4 ATS when coming off a victory. Georgia Southern is the opposite going 4-0 ATS in regular season finales and a sturdy 5-1 ATS in last home games. Finally, Eagles Coach Helton has never lost four straight (even though Southern Cal die-hards thought he lost every game there) and is 6-2 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses.

Big-12 Game of the Mont

Rating: 5 Units

Iowa State has out-yarded each of their last five opponents, including a 422-246 margin over Texas Tech in last week’s 14-10 loss. They have also held eight opponents to a season-low – or 2nd low – yardage this year, and that is just enough to apply the slip-knot on the TCU noose. When you consider that the Clones are 5-1 ATS in this series over the last six matchups (3-0 ATS as a dog), and that they own a 6-0 ATS mark as conference road dogs, you’ll find your winner. Finally, playing on any CFB dog off two losses, both as a favorite, if they allow 21 or fewer PPG and they are facing an undefeated opponent is 13-2-1 since 1980.

Rating; 2 Units

Oregon is only 8-15 ATS in this series when the Beavers are playing with revenge, including 1-5 ATS as a single-digit favorite. Oregon State has been formidable of late as a home dog of 7 or fewer points, going 6-1 ATS the last seven. Even more amazing is the fact that OSU has gone 9-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in its last ten home games, plus the Beavers have held their last three foes to season-low yards. Finally, head coach Jonathan Smith is 19-11 ATS in games where the Beavers are seeking revenge, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games.

Rating: 2 Units

Freeze loves to catch fish in a barrel with hand grenades: 18-2 SU and 14-3 ATS versus sub .333 opponents by an average of 46-13. This includes a perfect 7-0 SUATS in lined games. This batch of ricin-infused tea also features an evil 18-6-1 ATS mark against teams coming off a SUATS loss, which is a specialty of all college football teams coming out of New Mexico. NMSU is 0-10 ATS off a dog loss while playing a foe off a SU favorite loss and 1-11 ATS in the last 12 Game 11’s.

Rating: 3 Units

Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman’s goal is to avoid the pangs of a letdown versus Mizzou, but the fact is the Hogs bring a 4-11 SU and 2-13 ATS record into this contest when coming off a SU upset win, including 0-7 ATS versus foes coming off a win. Sitting at 5-6 in their final regular season game, the Tigers are a ‘Shaky 16’ team this week as it’s win or you’re not in time for Missouri. The good news for MU head coach Eli Drinkwitz, who just signed a contract extension several weeks ago, is the host in this series is 7-1 ATS. Drinkwitz also stands 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS versus a foe coming off a SU underdog win, as well as 3-0 SUATS versus sub .560 foe coming off a SU underdog win. Finally consider that Missouri is 9-3 ATS in Last Home Games versus foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS versus foes off a win of fewer than 20 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Simply expect the unexpected when Tars perform. Led GaTech 17-0 in 2nd, but no pts thereafter for UNC's 4th-ranked "O" vs GT's 95th-ranked "D". 'Pack on 1-7 ATS slide, & winless ATS away. In addition, 'Pack is 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, and 2-9 ATS as conference dogs of 8 or fewer points. Can't run, & Finley not the answer. Maye & Co bounce back.

Rating: 2 Units

BU is a perfect 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss and its opponent is coming off a win. The Bears are also 7-1 ATS when coming off a home loss, plus they outgained TCU, 501-442, in last week’s last-second loss to the charmed Frogs. For more anti-Longhorn ammunition, defending Big 12 champs like Baylor are 10-5 ATS when coming off two losses. Yes, the Texas offense has looked downright scary lately, scoring 34.3 PPG in its last six outings, but the Longhorns are 4-8 SUATS in LHGs, including 0-4 SUATS when coming off a double-digit win.

Rating: 2 Units

While the visiting Bulldogs haven’t done much better down the stretch, a litany of strong trends support Mississippi State in this battle for the 3rd spot in the SEC West between these intrastate rivals. While Ole Miss owns the better record overall at 8-3 / 4-3 compared to the 7-4 / 3-4 Bulldogs, the Rebels are just 1-6 ATS as conference favorites of fewer than 7 points, and 1-5 ATS in LHGs. Across the field, MSU head coach Mike Leach is backed by an 8-0 ATS mark when playing with double conference revenge, a 10-1 ATS record after an unlined home game, and a 6-1 ATS skein as a series visitor versus Ole Miss. MSU looks to improve to 5-1 ATS as an SEC dog of 8 or fewer points.

Today is a huge double revenger for the Ducks, who lost last season 38-7 at Utah and then 38-10 in the Pac-12 title game two weeks later. The fact that Oregon is 23-1 outright in its last 24 home games, and is coming off a home loss. Consider that the Ducks are 5-0 ATS at home with revenge when coming off a home loss since 1996. The Utes are 5-0 ATS as conference road dogs of less than 10 points and it’s always difficult laying points into this team, but it’s justified in this contest. Remember that all 6 of the Utes’ losses over the last two seasons have occurred away from Salt Lake City. Their defense has looked especially vulnerable in several games this season, and the Quack Attack is coming off a 592-yard effort in the loss to Washington last week.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gophers polished off the tarnish of a 3-game losing streak to become Golden again thanks to three straight wins. Not surprisingly their defense is allowing an average of 250 YPG during the run of victories. History lines up against Minnesota though, as only once in the last 15 meetings have they been the betting favorite and in the series Iowa has bullied them, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games. Iowa beat Wisconsin last week with one of their most explosive offensive days this season…146 yards. Iowa is a DIA DIA in this one, too (Dominating Dogs in Action, Doing it Again). 

Rating: 3 Units

A year ago, the spot on this one would have been around the 17-pt margin, or similar. Fact is that the Cadets are once again among the leaders in overland production (#2 behind only Air Force), but among the dregs, defensively, ranking just 71st, with that coming against such powers as Villanova, GeorgiaSt, Colgate, & Monroe, with mighty UMass on the horizon. Their current 3-0 SU/ATS run has lowered the spot on this, much to the delight of their backers. Not only is UConn bowl eligible, but is also a weekly profit producer, covering its last 7 games, the latest in its upset of Liberty, resulting in a +17 pt cover.

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Good numbers for the visitors, though, as they’re 4-0 ATS as double-digit conference road dogs this season, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight run-ins with undefeated conference foes. Michigan counters with a superb 11-1 ATS mark as Big Ten home chalk of less than 20 points, but the Maize-and Blue can’t be trusted to cash a ticket in their final home game, as they’ve gone 2-6 ATS in the last eight such affairs. And let’s face it, Harbaugh will work from a strictly “vanilla” playbook today to avoid tipping off Ohio State’s Ryan Day. Meanwhile, with two rough defenses doing battle today – and Ohio State on deck for Michigan – points could be hard to come by. Finally, playing against any 10-0 college football double-digit favorite in Game Eleven if they are facing a .700 > foe is 16-2-2 ATS since 1980.

Big-12 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Unit

We realize TCU is 12-1 ATS in LRGs (Last Road Games), but they weren’t undefeated then and carrying the weight of being in the position they are in this year. Meanwhile, some of the numbers look very good when studying Baylor: 5-0 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games, 7-1 ATS after scoring fewer than 10 points in previous game, and 3-0 ATS with double conference revenge (Bears lost 30-28 as 7.5-point favorites at TCU last season, one of only two defeats they were dealt in 2021). Meanwhile, back to the Horned Frogs, whose numbers are less-shiny: 1-6 ATS versus double conference revenge and 2-12 ATS after playing Texas. It is extremely strange to imagine, but the Frogs can possibly afford a loss and still make the College Football Playoff – but why take the chance? One thing we know for sure is Baylor is 13-1 ATS as a dog with conference revenge versus a foe coming off a SUATS win, including 8-0 ATS at home