Sunday January 28th, 2024

Game of the Year Side Play · [322] San Francisco 49ERS
 Mr. East   Sun Jan 28th, 2024 6:30pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

Expert Preview: MREAST NFL SUNDAY NFC CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEARExpert Analysis: The NFL Conference Championship game will have the Detroit Lions facing the San Francisco 49ers. There is one thing most bettors have their eyes on, and that is the status of Deebo Samuel. Samuel injured his shoulder against Green Bay, and has been limited in practice and is listed as questionable. The Niners have played without Samuel 17 times and are 8-9 SU in those games, including all 3 in their 3 game losing streak. The 17 games have seen them average 24.2ppg, while they are 53-23 SU when he plays, and average 26.8ppg with him. While it is a short sample size you can say he is worth 2.6ppg to the offense. I think the focal point on his value is legit, no one is talking about Jared Goff, and there is considerable value when you take a look beyond the overall numbers. Goff has played his 2 playoff games at home where he has thrown for 3,314 total yards at 69% and a yards per attempt average of 8.1ypa. He has 25 TDs to 8 INTs. When you look at his numbers on the road and on grass there is a stark difference. He has thrown for 1,261 yards and completed just 63.6% at 6.5 yards per attempt, with 5 TDs and 4 INTs. His QB rating is 105.5 on turf and 82 on grass. That is going from All-Pro to bottom 5. He has been sacked 15 times on 410 drop backs on turf, and 15 times on 195 drop backs on grass. This season the Lions averaged 18.8ppg on grass, and 30.1ppg on artificial surface. While everyone is focused on Samuels 2.6ppg net value, no one is talking about Goff`s huge difference of 30.1ppg vs. 18.8ppg or 11.3ppg! The Lions have also given up 3.6ppg more on the road, which is probably more reflective of more time on the field due to a vastly diminished offense. The Lions have played 1 game on grass since losing to Baltimore 38-6 in week 7, and that was a 28-13 loss to the Bears in week 14. The public is storming the Lions at 71%, yet the line has risen to 7.5. That usually doesn`t work out well. My playoff game of the year is on San Francisco.

The Detroit Lions got a huge win, and are no longer the team that has gone the longest without a playoff win. I think they had a lot of pressure on them, but the electric crowd, and Jered Goff great performance, and being able to run the last 4:07 off the clock to secure a 24-23 win was huge for this team. Since November 6th of last year only 2 teams have a better record than the Lions. (SF, KC), but they are not held with as high esteem as those teams. Goff ran his record to 22-0 SU when favored by fewer than 7 points. Tampa Bay's win over Philadelphia didn't say a lot as the Eagles finished the season at 1-6. The Buc's 6 other games vs. a team that made the playoffs was 1-5, and did not beat a team with more than 10 wins other than Philadelphia. I think Detroit will play a lot looser in this game, and they shut the Buc's meager offense down earlier in the season 20-6. The situations for this game are split, so I see no edge either way in that regard. The Lions have arrived, and they will take out the Buc's at home in convincing fashion. Make the play on Detroit.

The Houston Texans came out of the wildcard round with a lot of bettors ready to jump on the bandwagon. C.J. Stroud is a special player, and has done more as a rookie than any QB we have seen in a long time. I see a lot of talk that if he could carve up the top defense of Cleveland, then he will do the same in Baltimore. I'm not so sure of that. Cleveland had a strong defense, but were vulnerable as well, and let's compare the vast difference between the Browns and Ravens to get that off the table. Baltimore allowed a league low 26 total TDs this season, Cleveland allowed 44. Baltimore allowed 6 rushing TDs, Cleveland 15, and the Browns allowed more TD's in the air (27), than Baltimore allowed in any form all season. Baltimore has an elite MVP caliber QB and the Ravens average 6.1 yards per play on the season, and an elite 6.6 yards per play at home. The defense allows just 4.9 yards per play. The Houston offense as lethal at home in the dome of fast turf with no weather issues. They scored 26.6ppg. When they took to the road they averaged 19.5ppg which by NFL standards is below average. They are negative in yards per play on the road from the line of scrimmage. Baltimore is going to put a lot of pressure on Stroud as the Ravens recorded 60 sacks on the season. There is a snowstorm in Baltimore today, and while it won't be snowing for the game it will be extremely windy. The forecast calls for 15-20 MPH sustained winds, with gusts into the 30's. The Houston offense is predicated on the deep ball, but that won't be here with the wind. The betting public is all over the Texans, and that usually doesn't work out well. Make the play on Baltimore.

Dallas looked like they were going to be a wildcard team, until Philadelphia took a nose-dive. The Cowboys became the 19th straight NFC East Champion without a repeat from the previous season. Dallas has a roster of stars, and are built for a long playoff run. You can make that case for each of the last 3 years, as Dallas has won 12 or more games in each of them. This team for one reason or another just doesn't get over the top. They have to play a team that arguably has played as good as anyone over the 2nd half of the season. The Packers are as healthy as they have been all season, and the key to their success has been the return of Aaron Jones, the emergence of Jordan Love, and a cast of young receivers that are growing up quickly. Green Bay was 3-6 and questions surrounded them if Love was the QB of the future. He proceeded to answer that leading Green Bay to a 6-2 finish by throwing 18 TDs to just 1 INT. The Packer offense improved by +5.6ppg. The last 3 games, with a healthy Aaron Jones back on the field Green Bay has rushed for 154 yards per game, Love has been even better, and the offense climbed +2.2 more points, for a total gain of +7.8ppg. The defense has had to spend less time on the field, and after allowing 21ppg, is now allowing 16.3ppg since Jones returned. Green Bay is also 9-1-1 ATS entering a playoff game at less than .700. Dallas is just 1-9 SU vs. Green Bay in the last 10 meetings dating back to the 2009 season, and Dallas was favored in 6 of the 10 games! These teams are much closer than it looks. While they are 9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning percentage of .430 or less during the streak, and winning those games by an average score of 37.4 to 15.4, they have failed to cover 2 of the 3 games this year with a line of -7 or higher. A team that went 8-0 at home in the regular season is just 9-16 ATS in their first playoff game, and 1-6 ATS vs, a team less than .625. Make the play on Green Bay.

The playoffs have seen a lot of very cold game days. The Miami Dolphins and the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be in a top 10 NFL coldest games. Game time temperature will be around 5 degrees, and it will likely dip below 0 before the game comes to an end. The Chiefs have a home field advantage, but that will widen significantly Saturday Night. The Dolphins bring an 0-10 record into a game with a kickoff temperature of 40 or less, while the Chiefs are 9-1 in such games at home. Worse for the Dolphins is their average margin in the 10 games has been -17ppg. Tua is 0-4 at 45 degrees or less, with 5 TDs and $ INTs, and a passer rating of 77.6. The Dolphins have other problems, as they have 20 players on the injury report, and had to sign 5 players this week just to fill out the roster. Mostert and Waddle were both limited in practice, and if they can even play, neither will be as effective. The Dolphins won just 1 game all season vs. a team with a winning record, have a lot to overcome here. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Buffalo Bills really stepped up their game vs. Dallas last week. it was there most complete game of the season. The Chargers have a new coach and a new QB in Easton Stick. Stick has been a lot better than projected throwing for7.8 yards per attempt with 3 TDs and just 1 INT on the season. Josh Allen is feast or famine, but heavy on the famine. He has turned the ball over his entire career and has 14 INTs already this season. He has a 73.9 passer rating in 2 games vs. the Chargers in his career. The Chargers gave up 63 points last week vs. Las Vegas, and turned the ball over 5 times. Buffalo is in a situation that plays against teams from week 16 on, not including the playoffs, when they are an 11.5 point favorite or more to a total of fewer than 46 points, which is 12-30 ATS. The Chargers are in 15 situations which are a combined 1347-946 ATS. (the most situations pointing to one team I have ever had). Make the play on the LA Chargers.

Mason Rudolph will get the start for Pittsburgh today, and most will see value on the other side. Rudolph has made 17 career starts and the numbers aren't confidence producing. However, when you look at his home starts things look quite different. He is 5-2 with a QB rating of close to 9 and has 10 TDs to 4 INTs, and Pittsburgh has scored an average of 25ppg in the 7 starts. Moreover, Pittsburgh is in 8 very positive long term situations. Cincinnati has been out-gained on the season by 63 yards per game and nearly 1 yard per play. They won at Cincinnati by gaining over 400 total yards while holding Cincinnati to a paltry 222 total yards. The situations are largely in favor of the Steelers here. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a big opportunity today at home as they take on 10-3 Baltimore. Last week the Jags faced the #1 defense in the NFL the Cleveland Browns and this week they get the 2nd highest rated defense. Trevor Lawrence was hobbled last week, and that took his legs away, but he should be able to make plays running the ball this week and scrambling into positive plays. The Ravens will be missing a key cog again in their offense as TE Mark Andrews is out. Jacksonville saw Trevor Lawrence numbers take a big hit last week, but they were also missing three offensive lineman, and 2 of them will be back this week. Tonight's game will feature heavy winds, as the wind will be blowing up to 35 MPH. Taking Kyle Hamilton out of the Baltimore secondary will provide more opportunities for the Jacksonville offense. The Jags fit in a super strong 109-44-5 ATS 5-2 ATS this yr) situation, that has even better subsets. Make the play on Jacksonville.

This game has several very strong situations, and one is 58-13 ATS, and 6 others are better than 60% ATS. Make the play on Houston.

Bailey Zappe is not the long term solution at QB for the New England Patriots. His starts have yielded an offense that has produced 6.2ppg. I doubt they can score much against a Kansas City defense allowing 17.5ppg. The Chiefs have lost consecutive games just 5 times since 2017 and in the previous 4 they are 4-0 SU/ATS, winning by an average margin of 20ppg. New England has scored 34 points in their last 4 games or 8.5ppg, and I think they struggle to reach that number here. The Pats are 2-12 ATS since the beginning of last season as a dog.Make the play on Kansas City.

This game is all about situations and they across the board favor Detroit. A team off a dog win of greater than 13 points from week 5 on and are playing as a road dog are 68-102-3 ATS (11-23 ATS lately). The Lions are 14-5 ATS at home in their last 19 games. The Broncos are 4-16 SU and 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games. Denver has been out-gained by 76 yards a game on the season, and that expands to -136 yards per game on the road. The Lions are +81 yards per game at home on the season, and have a big edge across the board. Make the play on Detroit.

The Cincinnati Bengals have won 2 straight games, but I think the match up here with the Vikings leaves them at a disadvantage on both sides of the ball. The Bengals allow more catches and yards to opponent TEs (88 for 935 yards), than any team in the NFL. T.J. Hockenson has caught more balls than any TE this season (85), good for 839 yards. Meanwhile the Vikings defense over the last 8 games is allowing just 1.4 points per drive, and 15.6ppg. Both of those numbers are the best in the NFL. Jake Browning is going to be pressured into mistakes, as the Vikings send 6 pass rushers on over 10% of all snaps. The Vikings also fit a 106-57 ATS situation in this game. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Kansas City Chiefs have had a problem with receivers dropping balls tis season. There were 5 such instances last week and none more costly than Valdez-Scandling's drop, that changed the game. The Chiefs offense has suffered and is averaging just 22.5ppg through 10 games. The Chiefs have closed a game this season just 3 times with a 10+ point win, after doing so 39 times the last 6 seasons. The Chiefs defense is actually what is making the season good. The weak spot in the defense is stopping the run as they have been elite against the pass. They will get a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs today as interim head coach is pounding the ball and Jacobs is getting over 22 carries a game since Antonio Pierce took over. Jacobs will be used in the passing game, and the Raiders have an edge with their screen game, and I'm sure Jacobs will be targeted. The Chiefs last win by 10 or more points came all the way back to week 7 of last season. I like the Vegas Raiders in this one.

The New Orleans Saints are 5-5, but that is good enough to lead the NFC South which is the worst division in the NFL this season. They will face the Atlanta Falcons who will be going with Taylor Heinicke at QB. The Falcons are 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS when he is at QB this year, and he is 14-20 ATS in his NFL career. Derek Carr will return at QB for the Saints and he has 10 TDs to 4 picks on the season. New Orleans is off their bye week, and they fit a situation that involves certain teams coming off their bye that is 87-58-2 ATS, while Atlanta fits a late season situations that plays against certain teams that are off a road loss, later in the season which is 109-150-8 ATS. Make the play on New Orleans.

The NFL can be stranger than any league from week to week. Last week the Niners dominated while the Seahawks really struggled. That tends to have bettors looking toward the team that makes them comfortable off the previous week. The NFL is also a contrarian league, where what you think will happen often goes south. Tonight is a prime example of this in play. A team that outscores opponents by 10 or more points and off a win of 10 points or more are a dreadful 44-92-3 ATS since 2010. Coach Pete Carroll is 18-4-2 ATS as a home dog and the well touted 12th man will be in the house tonight and ready to gobble up the 49ers. Make the play on Seattle.

There isn't a lot to write about this game. The difference between these two teams is huge. It comes down to if this is the right spot for either team. Most of situations are trending against Washington, and among those is one huge one. It has to do in part with huge dogs off a pair of losses. It works against Washington and is an amazing 25-0 ATS playing against the qualifying team. Make the play on Dallas.

The Green Bay Packers had a lot of hope that Jordan Love would be able to keep the team winning. They were beaten in every statistic that is meaningful by the Lions at home earlier this season. Since November 6th of last year, there is not an NFL team that has fewer losses than Detroit. Jordan Love has 19 TDs and 13 INTs in his brief career with an 83 passer rating. The Packer offense doesn't have enough to stay in this game especially if Aaron Jones is out, which seems to be the case. The Lions fit a late season Thursday situation that is team specific, and they are 10-0 ATS and it is active here. Make the play on Detroit.

I'll bet not to manty would guess that the Minnesota Vikings have the longest current winning streak at 5 games than any NFL team. All 5 while Justin Jefferson has been out. He will play this week which will make them immediately better. Dobbs has been nifty, and crafty, and good, a lethal combination. The Denver defense has been pretty awful so far this season. They struggle against the run and pass, and I think Minnesota is going to get some big plays. Denver has really struggled in close games as they are 6-15 ATS in games decided by 3 or fewer points. I like Minnesota.

It is time for the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen to pay attention to detail and rally the rest of the season to be the Super Bowl contender everyone still thinks they are. Allen is a high maintenance QB, and has been turnover prone. The Bills are 2-4 in their last 6 games and have turned the ball over 13 times. That is 9 more than their opponent. The Bills 4 losses in their last 6 games have come by 2,6,9, and 3 points. They are in every game. The Jets offense is brutally bad averaging 10ppg over their last 3. I smell a big blowout here. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been a smoke and mirrors team all season. They are the first team ever in NFL history to have been out-gained by each of their 9 opponents and have a winning record. The Steelers have been out-gained by nearly 100 yards per game on the season. Cleveland will likely turn to P.J. Walker at QB. Walker has surprised in his limited NFL starts as he is 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in his previous 10 career starts. Pittsburgh is weak on both sides of the ball, and the numbers are going to catch up with the Steelers this week. Make the play on Cleveland.

Sometimes history leaves behind some clues as to what to expect. Is this a spot where Dallas just takes apart the Panthers in easy fashion, or is this one of those games that Dallas throws up a stinker? History points us in the opposite direction, and with the NFL a contrarian league, it fits in very well. Dallas is being backed by 75% of the public. The situation is as follows. Play against an NFL away favorite that has a 10ppg scoring margin or higher, and they won their previous game by at least 10 points. Since the start of the 2010 season these teams are 43-92-1 ATS, and from game 3 through game 14 they are 22-60-1 ATS. Make the play on Carolina.

The NY Giants have one of the worst ever offenses with Tommy Devito at QB. They are facing the Commanders who aren't much better as Washington is a negative team from the line of scrimmage. They have never been a good team when playing as a big favorite. This is probably a surprise to most but the Commanders have been more than a 1 possession favorite (8.5 points or more), just 16 times since December 6, 1992! Those games did not turn out well, as despite on average being a big favorite they are 7-9 SU (average line -10.5 points). They have been brutal ATS in these games at 2-14. I will take the NY Giants in this one.

The Detroit Lions have been bad for so long it is hard to think of them as a very good team. The light went on for this team back in early November of last season, and since that point in time Detroit is 14-4 SU and 15-3 ATS. They have also risen to the occasion as a dog where they are 7-1 ATS where they have won 6 of them outright. Jared Goff is quietly 36-20 ATS over the last 3 seasons with 82 TDs and just 33 INTs. Only the Kansas City Chiefs have lost fewer games than the Lions in their last 18 played. The numbers are elite for the Lions, and the public still has not caught on. The Chargers always seem to be right there, but can't seem to ever get over the top. Detroit fits a game where a team is off their bye week that is 51-23 ATS, as well as a 39-11 ATS situation. Make the play on Detroit.

The Green Bay Packers got a much needed win last week and they are getting healthier. Aaron Jones made a difference in the offense. The Packers went for 391 total yards which is the most the offense has generated in a game all season. Jordan Love seems to play better in defensive games as he is 4-1 ATS with with 9 TDs and just 2 INTs. It seems when he is not asked or feel pressured to do too much he has been a lot more comfortable. The Steelers have really been lucky to be 5-3. They are the first NFL team ever to have a winning record after 8 games and not out-gaining any of their opponents. The Steelers are averaging turning their opponent over 2 times a game, and has forced a turnover in all 8 games. The Packers are allowing fewer than 20 points per game. Green Bay is 36-19 ATS when they have held their last 2 opponents to under 100 rushing yards, when playing on the road. Make the play on Green Bay.

Don't look now, but the Houston Texans are green and growing fast. It sure looks like they found a gem in the draft in C.J. Stroud. Stroud has been playing at a high level and for the season he has thrown 14 TDs to just 1 INT and has a passer rating of 102.9. He has thrived as a dog where he is 4-1 ATS with 3 outright wins. Joe Burrow looks healthy but after last season throwing for 7.3 yards per attempt, this year he is at a woeful 6.0. This could easily turn into a hangover game for the Bengals who have beaten San Francisco, and Buffalo in their last 2 games. I could easily see them out of focus here. Cincinnati is generating 4.9 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 6.2. The Houston passing game is elite, and will keep them in the game here. Make the play on Houston.

I have many situations across all sports but this one is one of few that I play blindly because it has been ultra strong and predictive. It is 104-48 ATS, with a subset that is 78-29 ATS. Make the ply on Tennessee.

The Indianapolis Colts will take on the New England Patriots in Frankfort, Germany. The Colts snapped a 3 game losing streak last week with a win over Carolina. They Colts 9 games with 20 points or more on the season is the most of any NFL team this season. That is going to make this a tough game for New England as the Patriots have topped the 20 point mark just 1 time all season. The other problem is New England has allowed 20 points in 8 of their 9 games, and are just 2-7. Indianapolis is 81-54-3 ATS in a game following one where they allowed 14 or fewer points. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Cincinnati Bengals have recovered nicely from a 1-3 start. QB Joe Burrow wasn't healthy and the offense struggled. They have won and covered 3 straight games, and come off a huge 31-17 win at San Francisco. Both these teams are coming off their bye week, and that should put a much healthier Josh Allen on the field, and with Buffalo at 4-4 on the season, this is a big game for the Bills. Allen did suffer a shoulder injury and missed practice on Wednesday, but should be a go on Sunday Night. Burrow started 19-19 against San Francisco in his last game and finished 28-32, so the entire country has hopped on the Bengal bandwagon. Not me. Make the play on Buffalo.

I hear a lot of talk about what is wrong with the Eagles? This team has such great expectations, that even a 7-1 record isn't good enough. I think we will see them at their best as they play host to Dallas this week. The Eagles will be at their toughest at home and Jalen Hurts is 18-8 ATS in home games. He is also 10-1 ATS vs. a team allowing 14.1 to 20.1 points per game. The Eagles are also 17-2 SU (12-6 ATS) at home as a favorite. Dak has not been good as a dog of 6.5 or fewer points. His team is 5-8 SU and 4-10 ATS, and he has thrown just 11 TDs and has 17 INTs. Philadelphia is going to put pressure on Dak early, to see if they can force him into bad throws, which he seems to struggle with. I like Dallas in this one.

The New England Patriots started the season looking competitive. They were just 1-2 but both losses were by one possession. Things have gotten dicey since. The Pats are heading for their worst season in a long time at 2-6 and Mack Jones is not living up to what they expected him to be at this point. Jones has thrown 8 INTs to just 9 TDs, and his passer rating is awful. Simply put he is not getting it done. New England has lost 4 of its last 5 games and the losses have come by a combined 87 points or 22ppg. There is a lot to be fixed, and I don't think they will find answers this season. Washington has not lost a game by more than 7 points since September 24th against Buffalo. This team is competitive on a weekly basis, and 2 losses have come at the hands of Philadelphia by a combined 10 points. New England is fading while the Commanders seem to be improving. Make the play on Washington.

We usually don't get games of this magnitude in the European time slot, but this should be a good one. There will be speed all over the field. The winner of this game may very well be the team to beat the rest of the way in the AFC. Pat Mahomes is still a dynamic QB but his numbers are down compared to last season across the board. His yards per pass attempt, and QB rating is down, and his interceptions are up. Tua Tagovailoa is having his best season, and 6.6% of his attempts have gone for TDs. He has certainly out-played Mahomes at this point. The Chiefs offense has lacked consistency, and not playing on the same level as the past few seasons. They went the previous 4 years scoring fewer than 20 points just 7 times (1 last year), but have failed to do so in 3 games already this season. Kansas City has turned the ball over 15 times in their last 7 games. The Miami offense looks more like the old Kansas City offense. Both teams have a lot of injured players, and to this point Miami has out-played KC and look more like the Chiefs than the Chiefs. Make the play on Miami.

The San Francisco 49ers started the season at 5-0 and looked like they were Super Bowl bound. That has changed with 2 straight losses. They might get Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel back. The Forty Niners are going to be in an ornery mood off 2 straight losses, and they will look like a different team where they are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 regular season home games. They have won the 12 games by an average of 15.7ppg. Joe Burrow has a QB rating in the 70s and has not been totally healthy and has not looked good. His passing yards per attempt have dropped about 30% from 7.3 yards per attempt a year ago to 5.3 this season. Brock Purdy is 10-1 at home and putting up over 33ppg. I like San Francisco.

Last week was a crazy game for the Cleveland Browns. Myles Garrett is a huge disruptor and his fingerprints were all over the 39-38 win by the Cleveland Browns last week. Garrett had 2 sacks, a blocked Field goal, and forced 2 fumbles. It was a highly emotional game that went back and forth all game. I think a different team shows up in Seattle this week, as it is going to be difficult for Cleveland to summon their "A" game after last week. The Browns are with a backup QB, and a bunch of injured RB's so the running game is in trouble. Brown's QB P.J. Walker has averaged just 5.6 yards per pass attempt, and you can't win in this league with those numbers. Add in all the injuries to the Cleveland RB's and this is not setting up to be a big week for Cleveland. Make the play on Seattle.

The Jacksonville Jaguars at 5-2 will head to Pittsburgh to take on the 4-2 Steelers. While both these teams have a combined 9-4 record they are both being out-gained by their opponents on the season. The Steelers have won 4 out of 4 games that finished with a one-possession final score, and have been blown out in their 2 losses by a combined score of 60-13, and Pittsburgh has shown a not very high ceiling, and a low floor. Pittsburgh is 4-2, but has been out-gained by their opponent in all 6 games. They are living off turnovers with opponents having 12 in the 6 games. Their opponents re running an average of 10 more plays a game than they are. Trevor Lawrence is the better QB in this game, and what Pittsburgh is doing is not sustainable. Make the play on Jacksonville.

The Atlanta Falcons spent a lot of money to fill in some holes and after a 7-10 season a year ago, they are looking much better at 4-3. Desmond Ritter has been serviceable, but the wheels have fallen off for Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill has a QB rating of 71.9 with just 2 TD passes and 6 INTs on the season. Tennessee has scored an average of 14ppg in their 4 losses. Tennessee owns the biggest weakness in this game as the Titans pass defense has been very poor thus far. They have allowed opposing QB's to generate 7.4 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that generate just 6.1 That is where this game is likely going to be won or lost and I have more faith in a solid Atlanta defense. Make the play on Atlanta.

The LA Rams are 3-4 on the season. The passing offense has moved the ball well, until they see a defense that gets pressure as the LA offensive line has not held up against the good defenses they have played. Dallas leads the league getting pressure on half of their opponents snaps. I think Dallas is going to put the heat on Matthew Stafford, and that has not been a good thing for the Rams, as facing pressure has been the weakness. Dallas is not likely to get over the top against the Rams defense, but Dak Prescott has utilized short passes to sustain drives, and that will be open against the Rams. Since Prescott became a Cowboy in 2016 Dallas is 46-22-2 ATS when facing a team that is .500 or worse. When Dallas is .500 or better in these games, they are 34-14-2 ATS. Make the play on Dallas.

The Rams have won 3 of their last 4 games and are coming off their bye. The Rams passing game will get a boost with the return of WR Diontae Johnson. The Steelers have out-played their stats by a significant margin on the season, and that speaks of an over-rated team. Pittsburgh has lost at the line of scrimmage to all 5 opponents they have faced despite being 3-2. Pittsburgh has lost at the line of scrimmage by over 120 yards per game. I think this is as good spot for the Rams as it couuld be. Pittsburgh fits a horrible situation that plays against a team off a home dog win in a division game and is greater than .500 on the season. These teams are 38-80-6 ATS. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The Seattle Seahawks rolled with Geno Smith last season and he had a big year for them. He is still about the same in turnovers, so that hasn't been a problem. Where the problem lies is his TD passes have tapered off steeply. Last year mith threw 32 TD passes, and he has just 5 through 5 games this season. I think this is a good matchup for Arizona QB Joshua Dobbs. Dobbs yardage numbers stand out vs a zone defense which Seattle employs on better than 4 of 5 snaps. Seattle finds themselves in a horrible situation that has been 7-42 ATS that has to do with certain favorites coming off an away loss vs an opponent also off an away loss. Make the play on Arizona.

The Indianapolis Colts are 3-3 on the season, but they are a soft 3-3 team. The Colts QB Gardner Minshew is averaging just 6.4 yards per pass attempt and has just 3 TD passes to 3 INT's. Indianapolis has been out-gained by their opponents on the season. The Browns are 3-2 on the season and none of their opponents has gained as many as 300 total yards in any of the 5 games. Cleveland has an ultra elite defense that is allowing exactly 200 yards a game against them. I don't see the subpar Colts offense doing much in this game. Cleveland fits into a defensive elite situation that is 73-48 ATS and I will make the play on Cleveland.

This is a difficult scheduling period for Jacksonville. They just played 2 games in Europe, and now come home to be away again at New Orleans. Jacksonville will also be on the road next week. Jacksonville certainly has not carried itself well on the road where they are 22-79 SU in their last 101 road games. (15-73 SU as a road dog. They are also 9-18 ATS as a road dog of 4 or fewer points. Trevor Lawrence is a game time decision, but it looks like he will play, but may not be a running threat in this game. New Orleans has covered 5 straight in this series, and I like that to become 6 tonight. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Arizona Cardinals have gotten mixed reviews from QB Josh Dobbs. There has been a home vs road dichotomy that should come into play again. The Cardinals have moved the ball well at home where they are averaging 25.3ppg, but on the road they have truly struggled where the average dips to 16.5ppg. The defense has been bad home or away as Arizona is allowing 27.2ppg. Te Rams are 2-3 to start the season. Matt Stafford has had success downfield, and Arizona has been awful defending big pass plays so there will be many opportunities here for the Rams offense. Stafford has had trouble vs pressure, but Arizona has the 3rd worst pressure rate in the NFL. Dobbs is going to feel the heat vs Aaron Donald and others, and I think it will lead to turnovers and a couple short fields for the Rams defense. This is an important game for the Rams as it makes the difference of being 3-3 or 2-4. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The New England Patriots were embarrassed last week losing 34-0 to New Orleans. The Patriots have now lost their last 2 games by a combined score of 72-3. They have had a 6-0 turnover deficit in the 2 games. I'm not going to go into details of how New England is better than they have been the past 2 weeks, but they are in so many perfect situations it is hard for me not to hold my nose and play on them, as nobody wants them at this point which just fuels the line. A regular season game involving a team that was shutout in their last game covers 58.4% of the time in their next game. (115-82-5 ATS). I have 6 situations that all land on New England and I just have to trust what the information says and make the play on New England.

The Carolina Panthers drafted Bryce Young to be their QB into the future. He has made adjustments as he was hanging onto the ball too long. That has changed over the past 2 games, and he is slowly figuring things out. Carolina still has not put one in the win column as the Panthers head to 4-1 Miami with an 0-5 record on the season. The Panthers pushed their game against New Orleans, but still have not covered a game at 0-4-1 ATS. The Miami offense has been elite as the Dolphins are the only team in the NFL to produce a 500 yard game on offense and the Dolphins have done it 3 times already. The Miami offense took a hit losing Devon Achane. This game however features a situation that is 89-47 ATS in favor of Carolina. It has to do with a horrible team and horrible ATS team facing a good team and good ATS team. Looks like the type of game where Miami is not very motivated. Carolina has a bye mext week that puts them in a situation that is 133-99 ATS as well.  Make the play on Carolina.

The San Francisco 49era are now the 6th NFL team to score 30 or more points in each of their first 5 games. For what it is worth, the previous 5 teams went 1-4 ATS in their next game. The Browns offense has mostly self-destructed as Cleveland has turned the ball over 10 times in 4 games. The Niners are in some historically bad situations. They are off 3 straight home games. A team off 3 straight home games and now playing as a road favorite of more than 3 points, and playing within a specific total range is 6-32 ATS, and 1-9 ATS if favored by more than a TD. Home dogs in the NFL of greater than 7.5 points are on a 17-3 ATS run in the NFL (80-62 ATS longer term). The Browns have allowed 196.5 total yards per game. I like Cleveland in this one.

The Arizona Cardinals shocked the Dallas Cowboys at home last week. When you have a poor team off n upset win as an 11 point dog or more, they are 30-56-3 ATS in their next game, and if they are favored by more than 7.5 points, they are a woeful 0-13 SU and 1-12 ATS, and have failed to cover by more than 7 points. A 3-0 team that is posted as a double-digit favorite are good bets having gone 10-2 ATS since 1997. The route is on, Make the play on San Francisco.

The Denver Broncos could not have had a worse game against the Miami Dolphins which resulted in a 70-20 loss. This might be the first opportunity for Justin Fields to have a good game in the air. Through the first 2 games it was all short passes, but last week he averaged over 15 air yards on his passes, 3 times the amount of the first 2 games. Denver is giving up a lot on longer passes and this should be a good match up for the Bears. Denver is getting little pressure with its defense. The Bears use RBs in the passing game, and Denver ranks last to passing yards allowed to running backs. The Bears are also vulnerable to RBs in the passing game. I think both offenses will find the match ups appealing, and move the ball well in this one. I think the Justin Fields dynamics shine in this match up at home. The Bears fit a 78-41 ATS situation. Make the play on Chicago.

The Miami Dolphins put up 726 yards last week vs. Denver and through 3 games they have gained 1,651 total yards. The one thing about the NFL is things like this change and don't last very long. Bettors are swarming to the Dolphins this week with 70% backing them. How enticing it is to look at the Dolphins as a dog right now, and bettors have taken the bait. The Bills have had the Dolphins number as they have won 9 of the last 10 meetings, including 7 straight at home. Buffalo is going to show up in a big way and they have the defense to slow down the Dolphins and an offense that has put up 75 points in their last 2 games, The Bills have not allowed any of their 3 opponents to gain 300+ yards, and are a much more complete team than Miami. Scoring 60+ points in an NFL game is rare, and the 5 teams that have done so since 1980 are 0-5 ATS in their next game. Make the play on Buffalo. Make the play on Buffalo

The Cleveland Browns lost Nick Chubb likely for the season. The story here however is the Cleveland defense. The Browns new DC Jim Schwartz, has the defense looking /85 Bears-like. Cleveland has allowed 1 TD through 3 games, and lead the NFL in 3 and outs. Baltimore has 20 players on the injury report, and will continue without OBJ, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, and
center Tyler Linderbaum. That isn't good news vs a very strong Cleveland defense. The Browns held Tennessee to under 100 total yards last week and when an NFL team has done that in the past they are 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 occurrences, while allowing a stingy 15.7ppg in the 27 games, and have covered 7 of the last 8. Make the play on Cleveland.

The Sean Payton era is getting off to a slow start in Denver as the Broncos head to Miami at 0-2. The Payton offense that went through Alvin Kamara when he was in New Orleans now goes through RB Samaje Perine. His receiving success is #1 for all backs so far this season, and with Miami playing soft underneath vs. running backs I can see Denver having success moving the chains. Overall, the Dolphins have been awful against the run and I'm sure they will face a heavy dose of it Sunday. The Miami passing game has been elite throwing downfield, but this week they will be without Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle who suffered a concussion last week. DB Pat Surtain is a tougher matchup than what Tyreek Hill has seen this year, and without Waddle there should be help as well. This game also favors Denver with a 23-4 ATS situation that plays in part on game 3 teams off 2 straight spead losses to start the season. Make the play on Denver.

The Minnesota Vikings had everything go right for them last year. They won 13 games despite being out-gained and out-scored by their opponents. They won 11 games by a single possession, and the regression is underway this season. The Vikings passed on Dalvin Cook and are paying the price as they have rushed for fewer than 70 total yards through 2 games, the worst mark in the league. The Vikings have taken the opposite course as they are 0-2 with 2 one-possession losses. The Chargers may be the best of the 0-2 teams. The Vikings have turned the ball over 7 times in 2 games. Justin Herbert is 9-4 ATS in his career as a road dog with 30 TDs and just 8 INTs. The Chargers fit a very strong 103-47 ATS situation. Vikings are in an 82-128 ATS situation. I like the LA Chargers in this one.

The Detroit Lions opened last season 1-6 and it looked like the same old Lions. Things began to click, and confidence grew as the Lions did a quick turnaround and finished the season 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are now dealing with a rash of injuries as they have 17 players listed on the injury report. That includes some key players, as they take on a relatively healthy Atlanta team. Detroit is facing a lot of downgrades on the field, while Atlanta already 2-0 has some significant upgrades. This game including home field advantage for the Lions grades out to a pick 'em game, so there is line value on the Falcons. NFL teams off a home favorite loss prior to game 5 and not a favorite of 4 or more points are 81-143-10 ATS. NFL week 3 home favorites of 3 or fewer points and coming off a loss are a woeful 12-38-5 ATS. Make the play on Atlanta.

Jordan Love has had mixed reviews in his first 2 starts to begin the post Aaron Rodgers era. The good news is Love has thrown 6 TDs and 0 INT's. The bad news is the Packers offense has gained just 583 total yards in 2 games. The 31ppg is not sustainable with those numbers, and I think there will be regression for Love as the season moves forward, especially against the best defense he will have seen in the New Orleans Saints. The Packers are also playing into a situation that is 2-21-1 ATS. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Dallas Cowboy's looked like the most dominant team in week 1 of the NFL. They bullied the Giants 40-0. One would think this game would be an easy letdown, but if any team let's down it will be the Jets. They watched their Super Bowl hopes really get dashed when Aaron Rodgers suffered a torn Achillies on his 4th snap of the game. The Jets took advantage by sloppy play by the Bills who had 4 turnovers. A team off a shutout win, are 57-35-5 ATS in their next game. Make the play on Dallas.

The Chicago Bears spent a lot of money in the off-season looking to get things turned around quickly. The Packers Made quick service of the Bears in an easy 38-20 win. Tampa Bay unveiled what they hope is a new version of Baker Mayfield. He played well and mistake free in a close win over the Vikings to start the season 1-0. This is a bad news Bear's type of pick as one of my favorite and reliable situations has this 2-33 ATS nightmare playing against the Bears. They are also on the losing side of a 45-94 ATS situation. Make the play on Tampa Bay. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

The Detroit Lions made the playoffs last season in a surprise. They are now the darlings of Prime Time as they will play 5 National TV Prime Time games. Things like this have a rather long history of not going as it would seem. I think the Lions may be ft cats after their 1 point win vs Kansas City. The Chiefs were missing a lot of star players. Seattle got crushed by the Rams 30-12 at home, so both these teams need a win. Seattle also fits in a 21-0 ATS situation that is on them in week 2. Make the play on Seattle.

The Falcons offense was borderline bottom 10 last season. They have opted to go with Ridder and see what he can do. His performance last season was below Marcus Mariota, so there is a decent chance they are worse this year. The Panthers should be much better this season as they have brought over DC Ejiro Evero. He was the highest ranking DC ply caller in the NFL, and I think he has better personnel to work with in Carolina. Atlanta is off of 5 straight losing seasons, and will be challenged not to make this year the 6th. Scouts are high on rookie Carolina QB Bryce Young. They have said he is as close to Aaron Rodgers of anyone they have seen in the league in terms of accuracy. Think there is a lot more upside here on the visiting dog. Make the play on Carolina.

The Arizona Cardinals have voided their roster of talent. Any way you look at this team there is a hole to fill. They are going to go with Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune. Not sure if there is a winner in that pair. Washington has really built up their defensive line using the draft and the rewards will start to occur this season. Washington brought in
Eric Bieniemy from the Chiefs as their new offensive coordinator. There should be some upside from that move. This game fits a 127-78 ATS situation, with line value. Make the play on Washington.

The Vikings have made some additions to their receiving core, and it should help Kirk Cousins have a lot more choices to throw the ball. They are building a much stronger offensive line through the draft, and it looks like the Vikings offense could be significantly better this season. Brady was somewhat better than average in Tampa Bay last year, but with Baker Mayfield at QB. they have been downgraded significantly. The Bucs have a very young, but very talented secondary, so they possess the type of defense that could give Minnesota trouble. Minnesota was out-gained last season by 31 yards a game despite winning 13 games. The Vikings won 9 games by a single score last season, and this line is too high. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

That isn't the case in the Super Bowl. According to former All-Pro specialist Pat McAfee - who booted the opening kickoff for the Colts in Super Bowl XLI - the ball used in title games isn't handled until the opening kickoff, and it's kicked just once before being removed and preserved for the Hall of Fame.

Before I get too deep into this, I want to acknowledge that San Francisco is a very good team. The issue here is just how good are they. Statistically they stand out as being very strong. The issue for me in this game is as follows. The 49ers have 14 wins this season. Their best win, and the only team they beat that was over .500 is the LA Chargers at 10-8. The only team they played this season that is in the final 8 this weekend is Kansas City. They were blown out 44-23. QB Brock Purdy has been the best of their 3 QB's this season. He is still a rookie, and like I said from above, he has had 6 easy opponents to play against, and had very little to challenge him. That is going to change this week vs Dallas. Dallas can get pressure, and overplay often for INT's. I can see Purdy getting rattled and making a crucial mistake or two. Dallas has more weapons than any team the 49ers have faced both in the running and passing game. Dallas tends to play to the level of competition. They made Tom Brady look 45 last week, what will they scheme for a rookie QB? I think this is the most challenging game for the 49ers all season. Make the play on Dallas.

The Buffalo Bills have won 41 games over the last 3 seasons. They have yet to find their way to the Super Bowl. Something always seems to go wrong. If there is reason to believe that will be the case again this season, here it is. Buffalo faced 3 teams that made the playoffs this season. They won 2 of them by 3 and 4 points, and lost the other by 3. All 3 games were extremely tight. The last time they faced a team that made the playoffs was on November 13th against Minnesota, a loss. It has been over 2 months since the Bills have faced a winning team. Cincinnati faced 5 teams that made the playoffs and won 3 of them. The two losses were by 2 and 3 points. What this says to me is that this game is going to be tight, and the Bengals are getting several points to many here. Cincinnati fits situations that are 34-11, 98-56, and 51-28. Buffalo is in several negative situations. I like Cincinnati in this one.

A lot of what Philadelphia does offensively is predicated on the arm and legs of Jalen Hurts.He is likely not going to be 100% for this game, and the Eagles will probably hold him back from running the ball like his usual self. The Giants are not supposed to be here. Daniel Jones has made great strides and does not turn the ball over like he used to and the Giants defense has been improving. They have not allowed more than 353 total yards in any of their last 4 games which includes 2 vs Minnesota and one vs Philadelphia. The Giants seem to be in every game as they have played 14 one-possession games in which they are 13-1 ATS, and 9-4-1 SU. The Giants have double-revenge having lost to the Eagles twice this season, and playoff teams in that case as a 6 point or more under dog are 6-1 ATS. The Eagles lost a lot of their mojo down the stretch, and sometimes that is harder to get back than most would think. Giants come in feeling pretty good and has covered 5 straight games. A team that comes into a playoff game on a 5 game ATS winning streak or more are 18-11 ATS. (6-1 ATS taking 4 or more points). I like the NY Giants in this one.

There is one big difference in this game. It is at the most important position. Trevor Lawrence made great strides this season, but he still has a long way to go. He threw 4 interceptions in the first half and while he finished with 273 yards it came on 47 passes, at less than 6 yards per attempt. The Chiefs have the best QB in football in Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are also generating 4.7 yards per carry on the ground vs teams that combine to allow 4.4. The Chiefs will also have the biggest mismatch on the field with Travis Kelce. The Jags are 32nd out of 32 teams defending tight ends. The Jags are also 29th in broken tackle rates against them so yards after the catch are gong to add up. Kelce caught 6 passes for 81 yards against Jacksonville earlier in the season, but played his 2nd fewest snaps of the season as well. Jacksonville relies on pressure and they pressured Mampmes just 4 times in their meeting this season. Andy Reid has coached 19 post-season wins and 16 of those came by 10 points or more. Reid's teams are also 29-6 SU and 22-13 ATS with an extra week to prepare. I see a comfortable 10+ point win for the Chiefs. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Minnesota Vikings probably shouldn't be in the position they are. They have defied all odds by winning 11 games by one score while losing none. The Giants have been in a similar situation as they have played. What everyone forgets is the Giants are 12-1 ATS in one possession games.(10-0 ATS in their last 10 one score games). They have played 13 themselves. Points in this game are a big factor in what sets out to be a close. The Vikings also have one of the worst special teams unit in the league where they rank number 30. Jalen Reagor averaged just 6.4 yards per punt return with four fumbles. Greg Joseph converted only four of his 10 field goal attempts of 50 yards or more (this makes that Giants game-winner all the more unlikely) and also missed a half-dozen extra points. And the Vikings allowed 26.2 yards per kickoff return; only Miami was worse. Make the play on the NY Giants.

The Buffalo Bills are going to be a motivated team throughout the playoffs. They are playing for Devar Hamlin, and no need to go into those details as anyone reading this understands what happened. The Bills check all the boxes as it is. They are better than Miami across the board by significant margins, which expand with Tua being out for Miami. That includes a decisive special teams edge. Not only is Tua out, but Raheem Mostert is out as well. Buffalo has everything clicking right now, and playing inspired football for Hamlin makes this one a snoozer. Buffalo rolls in this one, lay the points.

I was waiting to see the status of Mile Williams for the Chargers. He has been officially ruled out. He is the only successful deep threat for the Chargers. Meanwhile the Chargers have a big hole on defense. They have a pair of very good cover corners but they have been attacked in the middle of the field. The Jags became a different team late in the season finishing at 6-1. They destroyed the Chargers in week 3, and I think they have gotten a lot better. Games in the playoffs are more about match ups and I like how Jacksonville matches up here. The Chargers can`t run the ball effectively, and if you can`t run in the playoffs and your missing your game breaking receiver, you are in trouble, especially on the road. I`ll take Jacksonville in this one.

The Seattle Seahawks backed into the playoffs with a 9-8 record as a Green Bay loss to Detroit punched their ticket. Brock Purdy has actually been better than any of the 2 injured San Francisco QB's, and the Niners have averaged 33.6ppg with him under center. That along with an elite defense makes the Niners a strong Super Bowl contender. The playoffs are an entirely different entity, as the game speeds up, and the pressure mounts. Since the 1986 season a rookie QB starting a playoff game has gone 5-15 SU. Backup QB's have an equally inept record as well when it comes to the playoffs. The weather will be a factor for this game as it has rained in the Bay area for a week straight and the current forecast for Saturday is 100% chance of heavy rain. It will be tough to get a big margin in these conditions and the wind may also be a factor. This game fits my strongest playoff situation that is built around a team entering the playoffs on a long winning streak. That situation is 0-23 ATS, and plays against San Francisco. Make the play on Seattle.

The Arizona Cardinals are down to 3rd string QB Trace McSorley. He has not been the answer. McSorley has a 51 QB rating and has thrown for just 5.2 yards per attempt. The Cardinals also have 30 players on their injury report heading into their game vs San Francisco. The Niners can be the #1 seed so they will certainly be playing to win. This game also fits a crazy good situation that is 1-29-1 ATS. The team in this situation averages losing by 32.8 to 9.8 and in the 29 losses just one game saw them lose by 13. All other games were by more! Make the play on San Francisco.

Pittsburgh is still alive for the playoffs, but need things to happen. Cleveland is still playing for a lot. They need to get reps for Watson, who will be their QB for a long time. It is a favorable match up for Cleveland as Watson is great against the blitz on first down, and Pittsburgh brings heat on first down almost more than any other team. Kenny Pickett is getting some headlines but he ranks very low among QB's so a lot of the winning the Steelers hve been doing isn't statistically bright moving forward. I like Cleveland in this one.

Lamar Jackson has been ruled out for Baltimore as the 10-5 Ravens host Pittsburgh. The Ravens have averaged just 12ppg in his absence, but are 2-1 in those games. The defense has made a big leap from early in the season. The Ravens have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 14 or fewer points. Pittsburgh comes of a very emotional last drive win in honor of Franco Harris. Heading on the road after a sky high emotional game, they could come up flat. I like Baltimore in this one.

The Packers have a lot of incentive this week. They have won 3 straight games, the offense has been much better, and if they win they could move up to the top 7 for a playoff spot with a Washington loss to Cleveland. I like their chances as Green Bay is 78-52-5 ATS at home from week 10 on since 1992. (70-46-3 ATS as a home favorite). Green Bay is also 30-6 SU hosting a dome team after week 10. Cousins has never been very good in cold weather, and the Vikings have not played an outdoor game since week 10. Green Bay also fits a 110-47 ATS situation. Make the play on Green Bay.

The New York Giants have been a surprise team this season. They closed last season with a 4-13 record and needed just 6 games this season to top that win total. They have had a considerable amount of good fortune. The Giants have 8 wins, and a tie, and have not won a football game all season vs any opponent by more than 1 possession. The Giants just don't have the personnel to get margin, and I like Indianapolis here.

The NY Giants have struggled after opening the season at 6-1. The Giants have been substantially out-gained in their last 4 games, and the win vs Washington last week was a lucky one as they were out-gained by 100 yards. Minnesota is coming off a game where they were down 33 and ended up winning in what was to be the biggest comeback in NFL history. The Giants just are not a very good team, but things have broken just right for them, and they are probably going to make the playoffs. The Giants are in a huge negative situation for this game that is 14-47 ATS. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Kansas City Chiefs fit into a huge late season home favorite situation. From week 13 on a home favorite of 10 to 17 points are 160-90 ATS since 1993 against an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .630. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Detroit Lions have played very well and have a shot at making the playoffs. I think they will be dealt a blow here as they fit into a very ugly 77-147 ATS situation. Make the play on Carolina.

The San Francisco 49ers lost their QB, but they will be facing a Tampa Bay team that has not found offensive answers all season. The Bucs average just 18.1ppg. The 49ers have won 5 straight games, and the defense is highly responsible for the streak as they have held their last 5 opponents to 11.4ppg. I don't think the Niners are going to have to do a lot of scoring to win and cover this o e. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Kansas City Chiefs have once again established themselves as the team to beat in the AFC. They will seek redemption in Cincinnati for not finding their way back to the Super Bowl. Joe Mixon suffered a concussion and it appears he is on the fence of playing at this time. The Chiefs are rolling with 5 straight wins, and Pat Mahomes is dealing at a high level. The Chiefs are averaging 364 passing yards per game in their last 5. They are also averaging 489 yards a game, so the running game is working as well. I don't think the Bengals can keep up here. Make the ply on Kansas City.

Both the Miami Dolphins and the San Francisco 49ers are playing at a high level. The Dolphins have won 5 straight, and the Niners 4 straight. The Dolphins 5 wins has come vs opponents that are just 16-39-1 SU and none had a winning record. Their 3 previous games were all losses, so they have not beaten a team with a winning record in their last 8 games. Miami has scored 30+ points in 4 straight games winning them all. A team in the NFL that accomplishes that have been 45-61-1 ATS in their next game. Since 2009 when a pair of teams square off in the NFL and both are on 4 game winning streaks or longer, the home favorite is 13-5 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

These teams come into this game with similar records, but Atlanta has been very fortunate to be 5-6 on the season. Atlanta has now been out-gained in 10 straight games, and 24 of their last 27. That bubble is going to burst facing a team that is winning, and deserving to win. Washington is 5-1 in their last 6 games. Washington doesn't beat themselves as the Commanders have turned the ball over just 8 times in their last 8 games. Atlanta is losing the line of scrimmage by -75 yards per game, and the Commanders come in at a positive 12. The luck runs out on Atlanta here, make the play on Washington.

Baltimore may be 7-3 on the season but they have not looked like a 7-3 team. The Ravens have out-gained their opponents by just 14 yards per contest, and find themselves in a lot of close games. The Ravens 10 games show that 6 of those have been decided by 5 or fewer points either way. Jacksonville is slowly getting better as the Jags are +4 yards per game from the line of scrimmage, and it has been a considerable amount of time since we have seen that. The Jags are even better at home where they are +96 yards per game which is considerably better than the Raven;s on the road. This game also fits a situation that is 96-61 ATS and is on the Jags. Make the play on Jacksonville.

When the Broncos traded for Russell Wilson they thought they punched their ticket to the playoffs, and beyond. That has not materialized as the Broncos own just a 3-7 record. The Denver offense has not scored more than 23 points all season, and has been held to 16 or fewer points in 8 of their 10 games. Carolina comes into this game an even worse 3-8. The Panthers are on their 3rd QB as Sam Darnold will get the start. This is a game vs a pair of offensively handicapped teams, but Denver has a much better defense. Darnold's numbers a year ago are even worse than the yards per play the Carolina offense has generated so far, so this looks like a downgrade. I think Denver comes out on the right side of this one. Make the play on Denver.

The Minnesota Vikings were exposed last week by Dallas. The Vikings took a 40-3 beat down. This off a very fortunate win vs Buffalo where they got all the breaks, and had a 2 turnover advantage to squeak out a 33-30 win. The Vikings have been turnover dependent as they have been out-gained in their last 5 games by an average of 408-316, nearly 100 yards a game. That won't continue to produce an 8-2 record. New England has become one of the top defensive teams in the NFL. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games. The Patriots in the 5 wins have out-scored their opponents 125-38 allowing a stingy 7.6ppg. What does that mean for NE going forward? The Patriots are 19-4 ATS when they are off 3 straight game allowing 17 points or fewer, as long as they are not favored by 10 or more, and it is not week 17. Moreover, an NFL team off a game where they held their previous opponent to fewer than 7 first downs is 50-18-3 ATS, including 16-3 ATS as a road dog. Make the play on New England.

The NY Giants have been a surprising team this season at 7-3 on the season. The Giants have been aided by luck and a soft schedule and I think that catches up to them on Turkey Day. The Giants are upside down on both sides of the line of scrimmage, unbefitting to a 7-3 team. Dallas is above water on both sides of the line of scrimmage. When Dak Prescott is at QB the Cowboys have averaged 28.8ppg on the season, and have out-scored opponents by 11.2ppg. Thanksgiving favorites have ruled the roost at 35-16 ATS in the last 51 games. The Cowboys last 5 wins have come by 12 points or more, and I expect no less here. Mae the play on Dallas.

The Detroit Lions have been playing well and have collected 3 dog wins in their last 3 games. They will be a home dog on Thanksgiving as they host the Buffalo Bills. The Bills broke a 2 game losing streak with a neutral field win over Cleveland 31-23. The Lions have not been able to get it done on Thanksgiving, especially in the role of a dog. The Lions are a woeful 1-11 ATS losing by an average of 16.8ppg as a Thanksgiving home dog of 3 or more points. Thursday NFL favorites are 162-120-8 ATS as they have the advantage over a weaker opponent on the short week. NFL favorites of -9 or more points are 29-14-1 ATS, winning by an average of 15.2ppg. Make the play on Buffalo.

If there was ever a smoke and mirrors team it has been the Minnesota Vikings so far this season. The Vikings are 8-1 on the season, but have been out-gained by 25 yards per game, and out=gained by 0.5 yards per play. I'm not sure if I have ever seen an 8-1 team that far upside down. I think Dallas in not only the better team, but they also apply to a 98-63 ATS situation that will have me backing them in this one. Make the play on Dallas.

THE PLAY IS ON HOUSTON (SYSTEM IS AGAINST WASHINGTON)

p:ADW and p:line>10 and WP>25 and WP=-3 and season>=1990 and total

The NY Giants are 7-2 on the season, and have made dramatic strides over their recent past. They have arguably the best running back in the league in Saquon Barkley, and QB Daniel Jones has cut way down on his bad choices and enters this game with just 2 INTs on the season. Detroit just seems to keep having the same issues year after year. Jared Goff will be in cold weather where he has historically struggled in his career, as his passing numbers drop off the cliff when the temperature reaches the 30s. It will be a windy day for this one and the Giants have the better running game behind Barkley and even Jones. I like the NY Giants in this one.

NY Jets QB Zach Wilson continues to struggle as he has just 4 TD passes on the season and 5 INTs. Those numbers could get worse after today's game in New England. Bill Belichick has a strong formula to defend against Wilson, and it has led Wilson to just 2 TD passes and 7 INTs in 3 games vs Belichick with a 50 passer rating. The loss of Breece Hall for the season has been felt and will be felt even more today. Bigger that all that the Jets won last week as a 10.5 point dog. An NFL team off a dog win when the line was greater than 10 points are 38-67-3 ATS in their next game. Huge letdown spot for the Jets. Make the play on New England.

The Chicago Bears love to run the ball and suddenly Justin Fields is the star of that running attack. The ball will be on the ground a lot this game, and that is going to keep Atlanta from taking advantage of the Bear`s weak secondary. The Bear`s have rushed for 238 or more yards in 5 straight games. Atlanta may be one of the worst 4-6 teams of all time as the Falcons have been out-gained by their opponents 9 times already this season, and under head coach Arthur Smith they have been out-gained in 23 of their 26 games. That is not conducive to winning. Make the play on Chicago.

I like playing a team that is on the brink. The Browns surely fit the bill at 3-5. A loss here to Miami and the Browns season may be sunk. The Browns defense is finally delivering. The last 2 games vs potent offenses in Baltimore and Cincinnati the Browns defense allowed 254 yards to Baltimore and just 229 to Cincinnati. The Dolphins went 4 straight games not topping the 17 point mark until they scored 66 combined points the last 2 games vs Chicago, and Detroit. Tua Tagovailoa is having a good season, but he took on Baltimore and Buffalo when they had depleted defenses, and has crushed teams with poor pass defenses. The Browns represent a much stiffer challenge. He will be under pressure in this game, and Denzel Ward returns to the secondary for Cleveland this week. This game fits a situation that is 94-57 ATS and I'm making the play on Cleveland.

This game will be played in Germany. Tom Brady has now thrown for 100,000 yards and while he is still a serviceable NFL QB the numbers are eroding. Brady is averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt, by far the lowest in his career, and has just 10 TD passes. The Bucs are averaging just 18ppg, and have not covered any of their last 7 games. Seattle QB Geno Smith has surprised. He has a 107.2 QB rating along with 15 TDs and 4 INTs. The Seattle defense after allowing 34.5ppg over 4 games is now allowing 16.5ppg in their last 4. The Tampa offense can't run the ball, and move the ball slowly in the passing game and find it hard to sustain and finish drives. I like Seattle in this one.

The 4-3 LA Chargers will make the cross-country trip to take on the 4-4 Atlanta Falcons. I think the market has caught up to Atlanta. The Falcons opened the season with 6 straight spread wins, but has dropped their last 2. Atlanta is going to run the ball even when they are behind. They are the only team in the NFL that has run more than they passed in every game. That typically means they are averaging fewer yards per play than their opponents, and fewer plays in general (-6 on the season). They are 4-4 but are being out-gained by just shy of 100 yards per game. The Chargers have not fared well stopping the run, and I assume Atlanta will have success running here. The difference is in the passing game where the Chargers throw effectively and often. The difference between the Atlanta run edge and the Chargers passing edge is huge in yards per play for LA. If you are generating  a couple yards per play more than your opponent, and getting significantly more snaps in a addition to that on a yards per point basis the score starts to get away from the running team, even if they have success. I also have 3 significant situations all lining up with LA. My NFL GOY is on the LA Chargers.

The Green Bay Packers have lost 3 straight games, and looked like a horrible team in doing so. Aaron Rodgers is having his worst year statistically to this point. The Packers offense is dead, and the defense is starting to crumble as well. Buffalo looks like a Super Bowl team, and a team that has the appearance they could win this game by 20+. I get a feeling you are going to see a different Packer team tonight. History certainly supports those thoughts. Sunday Night Football double-digit dogs are 28-15-1 ATS, as they tend to be inspired by the bright lights. The Packers fit a situation that is in part due to their poor ats record and Buffalo's good ats record. That situation is 88-46-6 ATS, including a perfect 8-0 ATS on Sunday Night Football with 4 outright upsets. Make the play on Green Bay.

The Minnesota Vikings are off to a great start at 5-1. Most will see them as a 3.5 point home favorite against the 3-4 Cardinals, which is barely above standard home field advantage, and look towards the Vikings. The record may say 5-1, but Minnesota is just 2-4 ATS and each of their last 4 games , all wins were by 1 score. The Vikings have played the easiest schedule in the league and despite a 5-1 record and a soft schedule they are -40 yards per game from the line of scrimmage. Arizona is just 3-4 but the 4 losses have come against Kansas City, the LA Rams, Seattle, and Philadelphia. Lost 20-17 to the Eagles and held them to a season low points. All things considered the Cardinals have been the better team and also apply to a situation that is 117-71 ATS. Make the play on Arizona.

The Chicago Bears got their biggest win of the season as they dominated New England. That might work against them in this one. An NFL team that won their last game straight up as a dog of 6 or more, and is a dog of 6 or more in their next game are a woeful 20-52-1 ATS. Huge letdown spot for Chicago. Make the play on Dallas.

All you have to do is see the 5-2 NY Jets are a home dog to the New England Patriots who are 3-4. For many that won't look right. Jets QB Zach Wilson has yet to prove he is an NFL QB. He has a career 70.5 passer rating and sits at 73 thus far this season. His 10 career TDs are fewer than his career INTs at 13. The loss of Brice Hall is substantial as he was carrying the Jet's offense. The Jets also have offensive line issues with several out or playing injured. New England is 30-6 ATS off a loss since the start of 2003 in the regular season to a line that does not exceed -4. (including 3-0 ATS this year). I like the New England Patriots in this one.

Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones? I don't think it makes much difference. The game plan may be different but each has proven capable of moving the offense for New England. They are separated by 0.2 yards per pass attempt. The Patriots defense has been a lot better than expected. Justin Fields is used carefully and the Bears gain more ground yards than air yards. The Pats will stack the box and it will be a long night for Chicago. The Bears have 2 wins, and one was over San Francisco at home. They were out-gained by 125+ yards, and the game was played in a quagmire. Their only other win was against Houston. The Pats are averaging nearly 30ppg in their last 4, and should get enough points to get separation from a bad Bear's team. The Bear's fit a 58-95 ATS situation. Make the play on New England.

San Francisco has been a tough team to figure out. The 49ers are just 3-3 and the 3 losses have come against Chicago, Denver, and Atlanta. They managed to score a combined 34 points against those 3 teams, so the offense has really struggled. Injuries have played a big role in some of the inconsistencies, but they better be consistent here. The Chiefs are coming off a tough loss. Kansas City is now 10-1 SU when coming off a loss in their last 11, and have scored 20 points or better in all of them, so San Francisco is likely going to have to find some offense to win this one. Kansas City is the better team and the Chiefs thrive off a loss behind Mahomes. This game also fits a situation that is 138-84 ATS. I'll make the play on Kansas City.

The NY Giants are a surprising 5-1 on the season. Last week if you look at the box score they were out-gained 406-238. When an NFL team is out-gained by their opponent by 150 or more yards they win 13.7% of the time. So the Giants win was a fluke, and I think the line is being held down by a season full of luck. The Giants rank 27th in yards per play margin despite playing the 26th ranked schedule. Jacksonville is a top 10 team in yards per play, vs a top 12 schedule. All 4 of Jacksonville losses have been by 1 possession. The Giants are a 5-1 team that is consistently losing the battle at the line of scrimmage, as their opponents have out-gained them on the season. I have a betting formula, not a system, that is 206-147-9 ATS that applies to this game. Make the play on Jacksonville.