The Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl in the 2013-14 season. Their offense was led by an emerging star in Russell Wilson, and their defense was anchored by numerous Pro Bowl defenders. Many thought this young, and talented team was built to win more. They had some very elite seasons, but never won since. The fact is this team has been in erosion slowly since. The Super Bowl team averaged 26.6ppg and allowed just 14.3ppg, look at what has happened since (year, offensive avg, defensive avg.)

2014        25.1        16.9

2015        25.4        17.6

2016        22.2        18.6

2017        22.9        20.8

2018        20.5        25.5

Since that Super Bowl win the offense has eroded by 6.1ppg and the defense by 11.2ppg. Combined, this team has been 17.3ppg worse on the scoreboard. They are missing 5 Pro Bowlers from the defense, and the offensive lie is in shambles, they can't run, ad Russell Wilson is under siege in every drop back. he has been sacked 12 times in 2 games, and the Dallas defense has been a sack machine. The 12th man has been considered lethal for opposing teams, but since Seattle has become a below average team, they have lost 4 of their last 5 here, the once impossible place to play has become winnable. Wilson is being forced into mistakes, and last week threw his first pick-6 since his rookie year, and fumbled in the 4th quarter, on a strip sack. A team that starts 0-2 has made the playoffs just 12% of the time, and that my speak a lot louder than the presumed Seattle 12th man, that has not had the same impact as Seattle erodes. Make the play on Dallas.

The scoreboard last week saw Washington win 24-6 over Arizona on the road, while Indianapolis was losing 34-23 at home to Cincinnati. The optics of those results has changed what was considered a fair line on this game from a -3 advanced line to now -6, in favor of the Skins. Things weren't as bad as they looked for the Colts trailing 27-23, and driving late, a fumble for a Bengal TD, and over and out. This sets this game up nicely, as team's that won by more than 10 points in week 1, covered as a dog by ,ore than 15, while their opponent did not cover, have not covered or won, since 2009, as they are 0-8 SU and 0-8 ATS. Luck has a career 76% cover rate coming off a loss, and is 24-15 ATS with a total from 45-52. Alex Smith has a career 1-4 record vs the Colts and a passer rating of an ugly 68.4. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The NY Jets unveiled Sam Darnold last week, and are very optimistic off his strong performance, despite the first score of the game a pick-6 against him. The Jets won going away 48-17, but a lot of things happened here. The game was 17-17 early in the 3rd, when the Jets scored on a pick-6 and a punt return, and all together the Jets scored on a 62 yard run, a 41 yard pass, and a 21 yard pass, as 35 of their 48 points came on non-offensive TDs, or from outside the res-zone. The Jets also benefited from Matthew Stafford's 4 INT's. There was a lot to like about Darnold, but a lot of question marks as well, as sustained drives were very uncommon. Miami is glad to have Ryan Tannehill back. He was 20-28 for 230 yards, and 2 TDs. I think this game is a toss up, so getting a FG here is huge. Make the play on Miami.

The Seattle Seahawks, just 5 or so years ago were considered to be a dynasty in the making. They had a young inspiring QB, and a defense that was considered one of the best ever in the NFL. fast forward, and this team has been ripped apart, did not make the playoffs a year ago, and are now 5 Pro Bowlers removed from that vaunted defense. It appears the bottom has yet to be reached, and a further erosion is likely this season. Denver tried starting 3 different Qb's in 2017, Siemian, Osweller, and Lynch. The latter 2 went winless in 6 starts. The trio combined for 22 INT's, and none had better than a 73 passer rating. Enter case Keenum off a breakout season in Minnesota. he will have Sanders, and Thomas as Pro Bowl caliber receivers, and even if he regresses some from a year ago, he will be a substantial upgrade from a year ago. perhaps a bigger, and widely unknown factor here is the Denver altitude, early in the season, when players are simply not in game shape yet, as most starters make cameos in the NFLX. That has a major impact on opponents in week's 1 and 2, at home for Denver. Denver is 31-3 SU at home in the first 2 weeks of the season, 22-10-2 ATS. They win by an average margin of 9.88ppg, and cover by an average of 5.12ppg. Their last home loss in week's 1 and 2 at home came back on September 12, 2011. That was to a division rival, who plays here every year, outside of the division in week's 1 and 2 home games Denver has won 13 straight, last loss was on September 13, 1999, almost 20 years ago! They have won these games by an average of +13.26ppg and covered by an average of +9.21ppg. They have never lost to an NFC team, that play here just once every 8 years, they are 7-0 SU/ATS, winning by +15.43ppg and covering by +13.64ppg. Make the play on Denver.

It certainly looked bleak last week for the Minnesota Vikings, but the Minnesota Miracle, a play that will be shown over and over for the next decade, pulled them out of the fire, and into the NFL Championship game. Philadelphia, seemed doomed when Carson Wentz went down with a season ending knee injury, but Nick Foles, who has not done much, has been asked to manage the game, and not lose it, and allow the Philly defense to make plays. That has certainly been the case, as the total score in the Eagles last 3 games has been Philadelphia 34 Opponents 28. The 11.3ppg has been good enough to get them here, will it be good enough to get them to the Super Bowl? I don't think so. Minnesota QB Case Keenum is having one of those special years, and he may never repeat it, or he may be a great QB going forward. he has better weapons to throw to, and has been making big plays all season. I think last week the Vikings may have taken the pressure off leading 17-0, and it should of cost them, and it won't happen twice in 2 weeks, and Foles is not Drew Brees. Foles is throwing for 6 yards per attempt on the season, and just 5.2 in the last 3 weeks, which would grade out the worst in the NFL. It takes more than 1 side of the ball to win a Championship. A team that has allowed 30 points or less combined in their last 3 games, and at least the last one of those was in a playoff game, and this is a playoff game, allow on average 23.6ppg, so I expect Minnesota to score a decent amount, and the more they score in this game, the less likely Philadelphia is to cover and or win. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Jacksonville Jaguars after years of struggling have built their team to the extent that they are 1 game away from the Super Bowl. that one game will not be easy as they take on New England. The Jags defense that allowed 14.1ppg in their first 10, is suddenly not playing at the same level, having allowed 21.5ppg in their last 8. They needed 45 points to win last week. That leaves them in an ominous position as NFL teams that scored 40 or more points in the prior game, facing a team off at least 2 straight wins are 1-14 ATS in the playoffs. Their biggest challenge comes from defending Rob Gronkowski. The Pats will spread the field and look over the middle for him, and he is a huge play maker. The Pats also will utilize their backs on short passing plays, and take advantage of th 2 weak areas of the Jags defense. While overall they rank #1 covering the opponents top WR, and #2 against the #2 opponents WR, they are 20th against TE's and in the teens vs RB's. No one is more capable of exploiting this than Tom Brady. On the other side of the ball is a big question mark in Blake Bortles. He could be very good or very bad. One thing for sure, the Pats defense is vastly underrated. After allowing 32ppg in their first 4, the Pats have allowed 14ppg in their last 13, better than Minnesota, or Jacksonville. Scoing on defense is a huge asset of the Jag's, but NE doesn't very often throw a pick-6. Brady has attempted over 10,000 passes including the playoffs, and thrown just 13 pick-6's. It will probably take one for the Jags to cover here, and the odds certainly are well against that occurring. Make the play on New England.

The Jacksonville Jaguars manhandled the Pittsburgh Steelers here earlier in the season. It became a defining moment for Big Ben after he threw 5 INT's in the game. he started publicly stating if he should retire, that he just didn't have it any more. He got over that moment fast and led Pittsburgh to a 13-3 record on the season. I think the Steelers will be a lot more ready this time. They have a huge advantage playing at home in cold weather. The history shows that ATS winning percentage goes up ti 55% for cold weather teams in December and January, but that is just part of the story. A lot of those teams, Cleveland, NY Jets, and Buffalo have been awful for a long time, just 1 Super Bowl between them, and that was close to 50 years ago. The elite cold weather teams such as Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New England are a combined 143-94-7 ATS in December and January for 60.3% winners, and when facing the  12 warm weather teams they are 43-20 ATS and removing games played vs each other (6-9 ATS), they are 37-11 ATS. This makes for a huge advantage as these 3 teams have a lot of playoff, and Super Bowl history, and the operative here is elite. measuring all games shows a slight edge, but when your dealing with elite, it is exceptional. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

The New Orleans Saints and Carolina panthers have seen a lot of each other, as they both play in the NFC South. The Saints dominated the Panthers this season, winning both games, and doing what the Saints do, carve up defenses, scoring over 30 points in both games. The Saints have been a scoring machine at home averaging 30.1ppg, topping the 30 point average mark at home for the 3rd straight season. They have not been slowed down by this Carolina team at all, having scored 30 in 8 of the last 10 meetings in New Orleans. There is one major difference this year, the Saints allowed an average of over 30ppg at home the past 2 years, just 22.5ppg this year, they are equally explosive on offense, but much tighter on defense. Carolina is fairly tight in their front 7, but the secondary plays mostly zone, and for an experienced QB such as Brees, that is a great scenario for the Saints offense. Brees has averaged 31.5ppg at home vs the Panthers. A good measuring stick is the fact that a home team in the wildcard round that scores more than 20 points has been 35-1 SU and 30-5-1 ATS. The Saints have scored 20 or more in 22 of their last 23 home games. Some other things that trend toward New Orleans is a team that has given up fewer points in the regular season are 21-12-1 ATS, teams that allow less in defensive yards per point are 21-14-1 ATS. A team that has forced more turnovers is 20-11-1 ATS. The Saints have averaged 37ppg in their 4 home playoff games since division realignment, and Carolina has had just 1 road playoff game since 2005 and gave up 31. The line movement on this game is heading toward New Orleans, and when that happens, the team where the line movement is heading towards them, is 22-9 ATS last 31 NFL playoff games. Make the play on New Orleans.

It has been quite the turnaround for the LA Rams, a team that won just 4 games a year ago, and finished this season with 11. they went from a season scoring margin of -146, to +149, an amazing 295 point turnaround. It was almost entirely done offensively where the Rams went from 224 points scored to 478, while defensively they were pretty static year over year. While that is the feel good, there are some significant caveats and red flags as well. Just about everything broke perfect for this team. They beat Dallas when they were without Mike Lee, a situation in which Dallas loses most of the time. They beat Jacksonville with 2 special teams TD's. Lost to Minnesota by 17. beat new Orleans when they were missing both starting CB's. beat Seattle who was missing 4 of their top 5 players on the back 7 of their defense. That is a lot of breaks, and each situation was favorable for their offense. Teams that make such huge gains, year over year, make lousy playoff teams, in fact a team that won 4 or fewer games last year, but won 10 or more the next season are a woeful 0-10 SU, and 0-9-1 ATS in the playoffs, failing to cover by 9ppg. The emergence of Jared Goff is the biggest reason for the Rams marked improvement this season, but can he duplicate those performances in the playoffs? History says he will struggle. A QB making his 1st playoff start over the last 15 years is 11-27 SU, and 11-26-1 ATS, including 4-10 ATS as a home favorite. Moreover, a team that has not made a playoff appearance the last 3 years is 8-20-1 ATS in their first playoff game. Atlanta is a changed team, they battled injuries, mostly on offense, and did not come close to being the explosive offensive team they were a year ago. The biggest difference is the strides their defense made, as they are a legit top 10 defense, and while the points were a struggle, the Falcons gained the 8th most yards in the NFL, so they have better potential than their scoring numbers. The playoffs are a whole different animal, and the Rams have just 6 players totaling 21 games of playoff experience on their roster, while Atlanta is loaded with experience. Your going to read a lot about the Super Bowl curse. Only 2 teams that lost the Super Bowl the prior year, won it the next year, and none in the last 23 years. However, the teams that made it back to the playoffs the following year over those last 23 years (13), just 4 of them lost in the wild card round, and 9 moved on (69.2%), and the Falcons don't even have to move on, they just have to lose by less than a TD. better than that, the last 12 teams that played in the Super Bowl, the previous year and lost had just 1 team lose by as many as 6 points! So every one of them covered this line, but 1 would have pushed. make the play on Atlanta.

The Tennessee Titans will head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in the NFL Wild Card round. It has not been the type of season Titan fans expected from Marcus Mariota, as he threw for just 13 TD's and 15 INT's on the season, and for his career he is just 8-13 ATS on the road, and 8-16 ATS vs a defense allowing from 5.9 to 7.9 yards per pass attempt. Have to be concerned about the Titan schedule that feature just 2 teams that made the playoffs in their last 13 games, and they scored 15, and 17 points against them. The Bills and the Titans are the only 2 playoff teams that scored 17 or less 7 times this season. That may factor into the equation today as wild card road teams that score less than 17 points are 1-22 SU and 0-23 ATS. The Chiefs have been a feast or famine team this season, opening at 5-0, fading at 1-6, and finishing at 4-0. They are 10-0 ATS when they win, and 0-6 ATS when they lose, and are now 16-0 ATS in their last 16 wins. Wild card round home favorites of greater than -7.5 are 11-0 ATS since 1994. There is another huge concern for the Titans. Demarcus Murray has been ruled out. The Titans have used both Murray and Henry situationally and equally all season, trying to wear down the defenses. Last game, with Murray out, Henry ran the ball a season high 28 times, more than double the amount of carries he has had since week 6. he is sure to be feeling it coming back on 5 days rest. Moreover, he has shown fatigue in his last 4 games, rushing for just 115 yards on 51 carries, or 2.25 yards a carry. There is another issue. Murray was an instrumental part in the Titan's pass attack. He caught 39 balls, while Murray has just 11 catches all season. The Chiefs win because of ball security and a ball hawking defense. Over the last 3 years the Chiefs have forced an NFL high 88 turnovers, while turning it over themselves just 42 times, for a plus 46. Teams entering the wild card round with a season turnover edge are 20-11-1 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City.

Week 17 is strange in the NFL, but one strange coach, Bill Belichick doesn't seem to ease up. While the Pats have often clinched the division, or a playoff slot by this time, it hasn't slowed them down. The Pats own the best week 17 record in the NFL at 19-7 ATS, and under the Hoodie, they are 13-4 ATS. Temperatures going to be in the single numbers for this one. The Jet's offense under Bryce Petty has been awful, as he has completed just 50% with 1 TD and 3 INT's, and a woeful 4.4 yards per attempt. Jets averaging just 8.8ppg in their last 3. Petty now has a 55.1 passer rating in the 9 NFL games he has played. NFL huge home favorites in week 17 of -11.5 or more points, that have 11 or 12 wins are 12-0 ATS, winning on average 35-10. Make the play on New England.

Week 17 NFL home teams playing to low totals of less than 42, and a line from +5 to -2.5 are 61-27-2 ATS. Make the play on Philadelphia.

Week 17 NFL home teams playing to low totals of less than 42, and a line from +5 to -2.5 are 61-27-2 ATS. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Minnesota Vikings have overcome a lot of key injuries, to put themselves in position to earn a 1st round bye with a win over Chicago today at home. The Vikings have worked to hard to let this opportunity slip away. John Fox was hired to turn the Bears around, but Chicago is just 14-33 since he took over. Perhaps what is most notable for the Bears this season is the fact that they are 4-0 vs the AFC, but 1-10 vs the NFC, and most importantly 0-5 in the division failing to cover any of them. This isn`t a new problem, the Bears are 4-19 SU in the division in their last 6 years, and 11-20-3 ATS. (3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS on the road). Week 17 home favorites of -11.5 and up, with 11 or 12 wins are 12-0 ATS winning by an average score of 35-10. Minnesota is now 42-15-1 ATS in their last 58 games, which includes 4-0 ATS from -9 and up. Make the play on Minnesota.

When the Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl in 43-8 in the 2013-14 season, the young talent on both sides of the ball had many suggesting they would be winning a lot more. They have not won one since, and the evidence is mounting that this team is starting to erode year by year. A quick look shows in 21013, when the won the Super Bowl the derfense allowed 14.3ppg, here is what has followed:

2014    16.9

2015    17.6

2016    18.6

2016    21.0

It isn't just the defense, the offense that averaged 26.6, 25.1, and 5.4 from 2013-15, has averaged 22.2, and 22.9 the last 2 years. All together this team has eroded by 7ppg defensively, and 3.7ppg offensively, or a combined 10.7ppg. They are still a good team, and injuries have held this team back some. A perspective would be the fact that this team allowed 30+ points in a game just 4 times form 2011-13 and 5 times in their last 8 weeks this season. The last one, 42 at home, sets them up in a brutal situation today. A team that allowed 42 points their last game, and is now playing as a road dog vs a team on a 2 or more game winning streak is 1-41 SU, and 8-34 ATS. Make the play on Dallas.

The Tennessee Titans have lost 2 straight games, and while the optics are not there for this team right now, they still control their own playoff destiny, no worse than a wild card winning their final 2 games. The optics were different just 2 weeks ago when they were 8-4. The NFL is like the stock market, buy low, and sell high. The issue for this team as I see it, is the offense is better running the no-huddle, and it wasn't until they got behind, that they trended toward it. The game plan this week will no doubt include more. The Titans are a different team at home where they have beaten Baltimore, and Seattle, and won 5 straight. LA is coming off of 2 hugely physical and emotional games vs Philadelphia, and last week at Seattle. Their 42-7 pounding of Seattle holding them to 149 total yards has a lot to do with the over-lay here. Week 16 home dogs with a total of greater than 37 are 72-36 ATS. Make the play on Tennessee.

The New York Jets have thrown up a pair of duds the last 2 weeks, vs Denver and New Orleans. That is not much of a surprise, as New York has a lonely 1 win on the road this season, vs 0-15 Cleveland. they have been a much better team at home, and to a tough schedule of opponents. The jets beat Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Kansas City here, and lost to New England, Atlanta, and Carolina all by 1 possession. I certainly think they will hold their own here vs the Chargers. LA started 0-4, and had little margin for error to sniff the post-season, and last week's loss at Kansas City has left those hopes on life support. jets fit many good situations here as well. Make the play on the New York jets.

NFL SURFACE AND VENUE CHANGES NOT A HEALTHY BET:

A lot has been searched and written regarding changing surfaces in the NFL. While nothing I have read has shown any major advantage or disadvantage, I happen to disagree, when all the right elements are applied. Today in the newsletter we will explore what happens to a significant road favorite, changing venues (home), and now away and going from an artificial surface to grass, things often do not work out as they are expected.

THE PARAMETERS:

1) Play against team going from artificial home surface to grass road surface

2) Play against team is a road favorite of -7 or more.

Believe it or not, that is it!

These teams have stumbled greatly going:

33-55-3 ATS covering just 37.5% of all games. 

When you consider week 16 is the home dog week in the NFL: 78-55-7 ATS 58.6%, and this system is 1-8 ATS in week 16


This all rides unfavorably against Minnesota this afternoon. 

Make the play on Green Bay

If you watched the MNF game between the Patriots and the Dolphins, Miami looked like a playoff caliber team, and New England looked like a poor team. Well, there must be something in the water in Miami, as the Dolphins have beaten New England here 12 of the last 20 times, including 4 of the last 5. As Belichick would say, onto Pittsburgh. Unlike Miami, the Pats are 6-2 SU in their last 8 trips to the Steel City, and 6-2 ATS as well. It is never easy playing against the patriots to begin with, but facing them off a loss, is quite frankly impossible. Since the start of the 2002 season, when the Brady & Belichick combo was getting entrenched here, the Pats are 35-13-1 ATS off a loss, and a ridiculous 21-0-1 ATS off a loss facing an elite team (better than .570), if they were less than a -7 point favorite. The Pats will show up big here, knowing the loss to Miami is meaningless if they win here, as they will once again control their own destiny for home field advantage through the AFC Championship game. Brady is 8-2 in his last 10 vs Pittsburgh with a 117.2 passer rating, burning the not-so-steel curtain for 26 TD passes and just 3 INT's, and 32ppg. My NFL December Game of the Year is on New England.

The Minnesota Vikings knew their defense was going to be good, but the surprise has been the offense. The offense has averaged just shy of 24ppg on the season. Case Keenum has had a lot to do with that as he has had a breakout season. The defense has allowed less than 20 points in 9 of their 13 games. Cincinnati has to be out of will. The Bengals were a playoff team the last 5 years, but you could see the will was gone after blowing a lead vs Pittsburgh 2 weeks ago, as they were a no show at Chicago last week in a 33-7 loss. The Vikings are a cover machine at home, where they are now 33-13 ATS in their last 46, and overall this team is 40-15-1 ATS in their last 56 games. They are also in a great situation as from week 13 on, a home favorite of -10 to -17, facing a team with a winning percentage of less than .630 are 125-70-2 in the last 197 instances. Make the play on Minnesota.

If you look at this game on paper the Giants should get blown out. The fact is this is an ultra strong NFL Contrarian Special. Conference games from week 6 out, since the start of the 2000 season, that feature a team with a scoring margin edge of 20 or more (Phila 11.8/NYG -9.4 = 21.2), to a line of less than -14.5 and their opponent is on 6 days rest or less, are 7-51 ATS. Play on the NY Giants.

The San Diego Chargers have completely turned their season around. After a punishing 0-4 start, they have been 7-2 over their last 9 games, and have a big division game in Kansas City this week. The Chargers have now become an over-valued team, and have no business being a slight favorite in Kansas City. Kansas City has become under-valued, as they started 5-0 but have been 2-6 since. It has been a simple equation for the Chargers, turn the opponent over and win, don't do it and lose. The Chargers are 0-4 SU/ATS when they force 0 turnovers and 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS when they force at least 1, lately they are 17-4 on turnovers, which likely won't continue. The Chiefs don't turn the ball over much (7 clean games, 4 games with just 1). Kansas City is also a great team in the role of a home dog logging a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark as a home dog from week 6 on if both they and their opponent are off a win. The Chargers fit the profile of a team in a bad situation, as from game 8 on a team that is on the road and 1 game over .500 against a .500 or better team are just 62-100 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City.

The post-season is no longer in the offing for Denver or Indianapolis, so tonight's game will be for pride. Indianapolis is off a brutal bad weather game, in which 6" of snow fell during the game. The passing and kicking games were muted by the weather. This week Indianapolis is back at home under the dome, but not in a good spot. Thursday Night teams off an overtime game vs a team that did not play overtime last week are a brutal 3-21 ATS. That includes 1-16 ATS in the last 17, and 0-13 ATS if not a +4.5 under dog or more. Denver completely manhandled the NY Jets last week, shutting them out 23-0 and limiting them to 100 yards of total offense, and just 6 first downs. A team that allowed 7 or less 1st downs in their last game are 43-16 ATS in their next one, and Thursday favorites are 120-87-7 ATS, as the better team seems to have more to prepare for a short week. Make the play on Denver.

The New Orleans and the Atlanta Falcons will meet twice in the next 3 weeks, so the Falcons playoff chances will for a large part, be determined in the two games. Atlanta had an unstoppable offense a year ago, when everything went right. This year, it has not nearly been the same. Atlanta's offense has regressed 11.3ppg year-over-year. Matt Ryan has already thrown more interceptions this year than last, and the yards per attempt have gone from 9.4 to 7.8. New Orleans has been on a roll, and the running game has been unstoppable, which has Drew Brees in a much better place. Brees has the luxary of passing for balance vs necessity, and the numbers show it. Last year Brees threw 15 INT's, this year just 5. His yards per attempt are up to 8.1. While the Saints offense is unchanged on the scoreboard over a year ago, the more ball control, has allowed the rebuilt defense time to breath, and they have shaved 9ppg off last year's total. Brees has excelled recently vs good, but not great defenses, those allowing 17.3 to 23.3 points per game. he is 23-14 ATS against them, scoring 28.9ppg, carrying a passer rating of 104.6. Falcons home field is not providing what it did last year, as they have lost 3 here already, two of which came to Buffalo, and Miami. The Saints after 3 straight 7-9 seasons, are 10-1 in their last 11, and building a Super Bowl resume, much the same as Atlanta did a year ago, and I think they add to that resume tonight. Make the play on New Orleans.

This is a big time match up between 10-1 Philadelphia, and 7-4 Seattle. The Eagles have become in most people's minds the best team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL, and why not. The Eagles have won 9 straight, and covered 8 of them. What gets over-looked is the fact that they have beaten 1 team that currently has a winning record, and that was by 5 points. Seattle may not be as potent as they once were, but at 7-4, they still have plenty of talent, and winning in Seattle is not an easy task. They are 42-8 SU here since the start of 2012, and none of those losses were by more than 7 points. Seattle is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog, winning 6 of the 9 straight up. Philadelphia has blown out their last 2 opponents, but in doing so, they set themselves up in a 3-23 ATS situation. Make the play on Seattle, and don't be surprised if they win outright.

 It isn`t to often the Denver Broncos have a season this poor. The worst season they have had since at least 1989 was the 4-12 team in 2010, and they enter this game at 3-8. Denver is 0-7 SU/ATS in their last 7 games, but it hasn`t been quite as bad as it looks. The Broncos have made 18 turnovers or 2.6 a contest, while forcing just 4. Those numbers have a way of turning around. The Dolphins defense, that allowed no more than 20 points in any of their first 5 games, has allowed 27 or more in each of their last 6, to an average of 34.2ppg. I think the Broncos get in the winning column this week as they apply to a 52-11 ATS situation. Make the play on Denver.

The Dallas Cowboys have really looked brutally bad the last 3 weeks, as they have failed to reach the 10 point mark in any of the 3 games. It certainly has influenced the line here, and public opinion regarding their game vs Washington. They each own a 5-6 record coming into this, and no matter the outcome here, neither of these teams are likely to make the playoffs, as they have 8 teams in front of them, and 2 others also at 5-6. Even running the table, which seems unlikely for either of these teams, might not be enough. Washington has done nothing to deserve being a road favorite for this one.Remember this Dallas offense averaged 31.7ppg the 6 weeks prior to going cold. It isn't so much cold, as it has been the turnovers, as they have made 8 in the last 3 games. Many will point to the absence of Ezekiel Elliott as the cause of the Dallas offensive futility. That is not the case. Elliott has carried for 4.1 yds. per attempt this year, and the last 3 weeks Dallas has averaged 4.4. The bigger problem was the injury to Tyron Smith, as Atlanta and Philadelphia, a pair of elite teams, had 12 sacks in his absence, and last week, upon his return gave up just 2, and on the season averaging less than that. Look for the Dallas offense to come to life after playing elite teams in Philadelphia, Atlanta, and a surging Charger's team in their last 3. Washington has allowed 33 or more points to 4 of the last 6 teams they have faced, including 33 vs this same Dallas team, and they have issues of their own. Losing RB Chris Thompson hurts both the running game and the passing game. Dallas has been a perfect 8-0 ATS (7-1 SU), at home as a PK or dog since 1990 vs Washington, winning 7 straight up, and a combined margin of +12ppg. I look for that to continue tonight in this one. The public has turned badly against America's team, as 65% favor the Skins here, but a road favorite in a division game, that carries a lot of their own baggage and injuries here, is not something I'm interested in backing. Make the play on Dallas.

It is not too often you get a red-hot team and getting points at the same time, but thus is the case for the New Orleans Saints as they take on the LA Rams today. The Saints are not only winning, they have been more of a power run offense than ever, and that just makes Drew Brees more dangerous. The Saints have lost the turnover battle in 3 of their last 4 games, normally a death sentence, but have won them all. The Rams after racking up 117 points in 3 games, were completely shut down last week vs Minnesota. Overall I think the Saints are a more experienced and complete team right now. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Carolina Panthers have their playoff destination in their own hands. While the Cam Newton led offense has had its share of struggles, the defense continues to carry this team week in and week out. They are coming off their bye week, and that has given this team some well needed fresh legs, and a chance to work on some offense. The Panthers defense has been extremely good on the road, holding all 5 opponents to season low yards. The Jets come in at 4-6, and have seen each of their last 7 games decided by one=possession. I like Carolina coming off a bye, as good teams often benefit more when they are, and this game fits a 22-0-1 ATS situation, based in part on that. Make the play on Carolina.

The Washington Redskins stole one in Seattle 2 weeks ago, and last week they gave it back at New Orleans blowing a 15 point lead before losing in overtime. The Giants who most have left for dead, shocked the free-falling Kansas City Chiefs 12-9 in overtime. That sets them up in a bad spot for this one. teams off an overtime game and now have to play on the road in a short week, in a Thursday game are 2-17 ATS. Favorites have been tough to beat on Thanksgiving as they own a 40-19-1 ATS record to a line of -2 or more. Make the play on Washington.

A lot has been made of the Dallas struggles without LB Sean Lee and also without RB Ezekiel Elliott. Certainly the results of their last 2 games would tend to verify that. Dallas has been beaten by a combined score of 64-16. So, suddenly Dallas has become a bad team to all that have 2 games on their immediate mind. We have to not lose sight of the fact that the losses came to Atlanta and Philadelphia, not 4-6 San Diego. They also turned the ball over 6 times, and Elliott ad Lee had nothing to do with that. The Chargers 4 wins have come against the Giants, Oakland, Denver, and last week vs a Buffalo team wheeling out a QB that threw 5 INT's in the first half, on their way to a +6 in turnover margin, and a 30 point win. Lost blindly i  all that was the fact they were out-gained from the line of scrimmage 6.44 yards a play to 5.96 yards a play. There is a lot of hidden value here. A team that saw their previous opponent turn the ball over 6 times are 56-74 ATS in their next game. A subset of that reads if they are posted as a road favorite in their next game they are 2-15 ATS. (0-7 ATS if it is a non-conference game). Dallas is 21-5-1 ATS from +4.5 to -1 at home if they have a winning percentage greater than 0 and less than .700. Make the play on Dallas.

The Detroit Lions have salvaged their season with 3 straight wins, and moved into the playoff hunt at 6-4. They will be going for 5 straight Turkey Day wins and covers against the surging Vikings, now 8-2, after recording their 5th straight win and cover, so something will have to give in this game. Detroit has beaten Green Bay, Cleveland, and Chicago, not exactly a gauntlet of elite teams, or even good teams. Some will look at the Detroit 14-7 win in Minnesota, and say they have proven they can not only play tough against this team, but beat them. A quick look at that game may suggest otherwise. The Vikings fumbled 3 times, and lost all 3, and out-gained the Lions 5.3 yards a play to 3.7 yards a play. Stafford was sacked 6 times, and Detroit had 10 plays for negative yardage, and Minnesota just 2. This is not a good spot for Detroit either. The Lions since the start of the 2005 season are 0-17 SU and 2-14-1 ATS losing by -13.41 points per game taking on an elite opponent, one with a winning percentage of greater than .780. That includes 0-8 ATS when the Lions themselves have been good coming in with a winning percentage of their own of .600 or better. Vikings have been a cover machine, now 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59. Minnesota can put a bow around the NFC Central with a revenge win here. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Monday Night match up between the visiting Atlanta Falcons vs the Seattle Seahawks has a lot of playoff implications. The Falcons have had injury and hangover issues after blowing a huge Super Bowl lead last year. They appear to be hitting their stride once again. While the offense has not put up big numbers, the defense has been so much better, as no team has scored more than 26 on them all season. They had 8 sacks last week vs Dallas, and Seattle has had issues on their offensive line all season. Seattle has scored 16 or less points in 4 games. Atlanta has the better offense here, and the once mighty Seattle defense is no average from the line of scrimmage. Ryan will have a good opportunity to exploit the Seahawks secondary who just lost Richard Sherman for the year, and Earl Thomas is nursing a hamstring injury. Adding to the injury woes, CB Shaquill Griffin injured his shoulder last week as is questionable. Matt Ryan has averaged 27.3ppg in his last 6 vs Seattle. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Dallas Cowboys are tied with a bunch of NFC teams at 5-4, and outside the current playoff picture. This is a critical game for Dallas, if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. The Eagles through 9 games are 8-1, and have the best record in the NFL. Dallas has to try and get it done without Ezekiel Elliott once again, but the bigger problem is T Tyron Smith's health. He missed last week, and Adrian Clayborn sacked Dak Prescott 6 times, and he went down 8 times total, and took a total beating. A weakened Dallas running game, is not helping. The Eagles have now scored 20+ points in 13 straight games, and are 9-1 in their last 10. Carson Wentz has really become an elite level QB in his 2nd year throwing for 23 TD's and just 5 INT's, with a 104.1 passer rating. Dak Prescott remains solid but his yards per attempt have dropped below 7 this season, after it being 8 last year. This is not the same offensive line for Dallas, and without Elliott, the offense really went nowhere last game. Eagles are off a bye, while Prescott took a beating last week. Eagles are 17-9 ATS off a bye, including 4-1 ATS as a road favorite. They also apply to a 141-76 ATS situation. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Detroit Lions moved to 5-4 with their 14 point win vs Cleveland last week. They remain in playoff contention, and will take on division rival Chicago, a 23-16 loser at home vs Green Bay. The Bears have struggled all season on offense as Mitchell Tribisky is a work in progress at QB. He enters with a passer rating of just 75.6, with the Bears averaging just 17.8ppg in his starts. Matthew Stafford has had one of his best seasons to date, with a passer rating of 96.3 and the Lion's offense is generating 27.1ppg. He has done a much better job with turnovers this season as he has tossed 17 TD passes to just 5 INT's. Bears loss to Green Bay last week has left them at 3-6 and the playoffs are pretty much gone now, and this could be a big letdown spot. Make the play on Detroit.

This game fits a situation that is 67-32 ATS and the play is on Miami.

There is a fine line between good, average, and bad in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills may be a vastly over-rated team to this point as they come into play against the hot New Orleans Saints at 5-3, and have the record of a playoff team, but it is an illusion. The Bills don't do anything good or bad, as they are pretty much a slightly below average team from the line of scrimmage. They have been out-gained by each of their last 7 opponents, and in their last 4 wins have had a turnover margin of +12. It is an unsustainable pace to be on average +3 going forward, and I expect this Buffalo team's record to erode going forward, we saw it last week vs the Jets. New orleans appeared to be heading for a bad season starting 0-2, but everything has come together for this team, including their much maligned defense, that has now allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The Saints, unlike the Bills, have won their last 3 games by an average of 9ppg, despite a negative turnover margin in all 3. The Saints have also out-gained each of their last 6 opponents. Only way Buffalo has a chance here is if they are +2 or more on turnovers, so I like their chances. Make the play on New Orleans.

Washington needed a miracle last Sunday Night, and got one, beating the Seahawks 17-14 with late heroics from Kirk Cousins. They were out-gained by nearly 200 yards, but somehow managed to win. Washington spent a lot of physical and mental energy in that game, and this team is severely banged up. The Skins have 22 players on he NFL injury report. The offense has become one-dimensional, as they have run for just 269 yards in their last 4, and has gotten worse with a dinged up OL, at just 100 rushing yards total in their last 2. Minnesota is going to make things tough, as the Vikings in their last 5 games has not allowed any QB to pass for more than 161 yards, and none of their last 6 opponents has topped the 17 point mark. Menwhile, Kase Keenum has a passer rating of 88.8, respectably better than what he has done previously in his career, and more importantly has cut his interception rate down to 1.3%. The Vikings have become a player in the NFC, and should come away with the road win here. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Green Bay Packers have certainly not fared well when Aaron Rodgers has not been their QB in recent years. QB Brett Hundley has been a disaster so far, but the Packers have had 2 weeks to get him straightened out and to formulate a game plan. Mike McCarthy is a strong offensive mind, and he will have the offense geared for Hundley to have more success, and Aaron Rodgers has worked with him as well. Better news is the banged up Packers have had a chance to heal, and have a lot more defensive starters back, as well as their offensive line back in tact. Aaron Jones has given the Packer's a running game, and should be enough to slow the rush on Hundley. Detroit has even bigger issues, as they have dropped 3 straight allowing 33ppg. The offense was 0-5 in the red-zone last week, and struggling. Packers have some strength as a pass rushing unit, and Detroit has trouble protecting Stafford, and I think the Packers will disrupt some drives in that respect. Lions have never been a strong road team, and worse as a favorite where they are 9-26 ATS as road chalk since 1992, and Lambeau has been a graveyard for this team just 1-25 SU in their last 26 here. Lot of action on Detroit, but the line eroding, a good sign that big money is behind Green Bay. McCarthy is 9-1 ATS after a bye. Lions 0-15 ATS in their last 15 vs an opponent that had less than 26:30 time of possession in their last game, losing all but one of them straight up as well. A team making 5 or more field gaols in their last game is a sure sign of trouble as they are 44-64 ATS the following game. McCarthy is 30-11 ATS in his coaching career vs teams that average 60+ penalty yards a game. Make the play on Green Bay.

The NFL has become a passing league, as more and more we see the ball in the air. A team still has to run the ball to keep opposing defenses from just coming all out every down. Today in the newsletter we will examine the rushing paradox. A gambler is faced with a favorite that has not run the ball well, vs a team that just got crushed on the ground. So the paradox is, will our favorite seize the opportunity vs a team that just git out-gained on the ground by 100+ yards, or will the inept running game of our favorite be a better match for our running scared opponent. Let's take a look and supply some history to our paradox:

1)  Play against team is favored

2)  Play against team has failed to rush for 100+ yards in each of their last 2 games.

3)  Opponent was out-gained on the ground by 100+ yards in their last game.

THE RESULTS:

The favorite is a dreadful:

45-89-9 ATS  at 35.2%!

Seems like we have found our answer, today this plays against the Oakland Raiders, so on the Miami Dolphins.

When I look at a game, I like to look for hidden value and there is plenty to work with regarding this game. The Lions don't get to play on Thursday Night, Monday Night, or Sunday Night very much at all. They have made 5 appearances since October of 1999 on Sunday Night and are 0-5. They have made just 4 appearances at home on Monday Night since October of 1998, and have not appeared at home on a Thursday Night since October of 1998. Needless to say, the current roster has very little experience in game preparation for these "special" games. Pittsburgh has been a fixture in these games pretty much on a season to season basis. Pittsburgh is 7-1 since 1989 vs Detroit (best record they have vs an out of conference opponent), winning by 11ppg. Detroit would appear to be the better offense here, but they are far from it, registering -0.5 yards per play from the schedule of opposing defense they have faced, while Pitt is +0.2. Detroit has scored on short fields more than any team in the league, and is averaging 11.1 yards per point, which will not continue. No team has generated more than 313 yards against the Pittsburgh defense this season. Pittsburgh allows -0.7 yards per play vs a schedule of opposing offenses generating 4.7, while the Detroit defense is even. This gives Pittsburgh the advantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and the Detroit injury list is as long as the dead sea scrolls. Pittsburgh comes in very healthy. Stafford has struggled throughout his career vs strong defensive teams, with an 83.6 passer rating against defenses allowing from 13.6 to 19.6ppg, and his Lion's team is averaging 19ppg in those contests. Pittsburgh is allowing 12.6ppg when it does not turn the ball over more than 1 time. The Steelers also fit a statistical match up situation that is 125-80 ATS. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Not too many teams come out of Seattle feeling very well. The Seahawks are 41-6 SU at home since the start of the 2012 season, and teams from the AFC that seldom play here are 0-11 SU over the period. DeShaun Watson has been a force, but most don't realize his last 3 games were all at home, and now he must go to the most difficult place in the league to play, and his inexperience is going to be tested at the top level. Seahawks have allowed 15.4ppg in the 47 games, and many think the defense is down, but 15.8ppg a year ago, and 13.5ppg this year. Make the play on Seattle.

This is based on one of my top systems which is 51-5 ATS, make the play on Indianapolis.

This game is based on one of my top systems which is 42-7 ATS, make the play on Tampa Bay.

This game is based on a statistical matchup indicator, one that has a record of 84-48 ATS, make the play on Carolina.

It was one of the worst weeks ever in the history of Big Ben, who was picked off 5 times last week in a 30-9 home loss vs Jacksonville. It just added more question marks to a Pittsburgh offense, that finds themselves averaging shy of 20ppg. The Pittsburgh defense, has for the most part saved the day, but it is not complete. The Steelers have been elite defending the pass, which has served them well in a pass happy league, but against the run they are allowing 5 yards per carry against a schedule of teams that average just 4.3. Enter the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs run the ball better than anyone, at 5.7 yards a carry, and have elite passing numbers as well. Defensively, the Chiefs have been pretty average. The Chiefs have simply had a nose for winning, cashing in on every break, and barely turning the ball over. The last 32 non-offensive TD's scored in a Chief's game, shows KC cashing in 30 of them, opponents 2! You wonder why they are 27-4 SU in their last 31 games. They are an opportunistic good team, that doesn't turn the ball over, and feasts on opponents miscues. The Chiefs have not turned the ball over in 4 straight games. Many will believe that puts the odds against them, the "due" theory. Well, history says the exact opposite. The less a team has turned the ball over, the less they will going forward. An NFL team off a turnover free game covers 50.3%, off 2, 54.8, off 3, 67%, off 4 70.3%(83.3% as home favorite) The Chiefs are off 4. Make the play on Kansas City.

It has been a long road for the New Orleans Saints to be over .500, the last time was all the way back to the 2013 season. They have won 2 games in a row, and a win vs the Lions at home will get them back there. The Lions rally fell short last week against the Panthers at home, but they lost perhaps more than the game. Their top defensive lineman, Haloti Ngata, is now on IR with an elbow injury, and QB Matthew Stafford limped through the 4th quarter with hamstring and ankle issues, although he is expected to play, but at what level? The Lions don't have good metrics, but where they have been winning is in the turnover battle, as they come in at +8. The Saints have completed 4 games to open the season without a turnover. They became just the 3rd NFL team in history to do so. If you think they are "due" to turn the ball over, that simply is not the case. A team that has not committed a turnover in 3 straight games is 75-37-4 ATS, and if they have not done so in 4 straight games, they are 19-8-1 ATS. (8-1 ATS last 9). Make the play on New Orleans.

This line may look a bit suspect with Carolina laying more than a FG, but there is a hidden reason for it. Carson Wentz is having another great start to his season, but things look ominous without Lane Johnson at tackle. last year the Eagles went 5-1 with Johnson protecting Wentz' right side (2-8 without him), and off to a 4-1 start this season. Johnson is in concussion protocol, and will not play tonight, and Halapoulivaati Vaitai is no match for Mario Anderson, and I think Wentz is going to be under a lot of pressure. Another issue is the elite class of the Carolina linebackers. They simply shut down TE's and RB's coming out of the backfield. TE Zach Ertz is a very good player, and has been targeted 48 times, 10 more than the 2nd most TE. He may not be free to do much damage tonight, and he is an integral part of the Eagles attack. Christain McCaffrey has not run the ball well for the Panthers, but his value is in short passes, and has been a favorite of Newton, and leads the team in receptions, and his work in this area, has been an extension to a poor running attack. Cam newton looks like a different player, he has gained confidence that his repaired shoulder is ok, and is completing a career high 68.3% of his passes. He has looked like a different player the last 2 weeks, and I would expect he continues to play at a higher level, maybe not up to the standard of the last 2 weeks, but more 2015 than 2016. Newton is 19-11 ATS as a home favorite, and Wentz has been awful as a road dog, throwing 8 TD's to 9 INT's with a woeful 58% completion rate, as well as a poor 71.9 passer rating. Thursday Night home favorites have a big edge and are 114-84 ATS, covering 57.6% on the blind, and 74-51 ATS at home, 59.2%. from week 6 on teams off a dog win that are at home and .750 or better, against an opponent, that is also .750 or better are 17-2 ATS. Make the play on Carolina.

The Houston Texans are undoubtedly a better offensive team with Watson at QB, as he has averaged 7.5 per attempt on the season, in his 3 games. Last week the Texans rolled up 57 points, taking advantage of 5 Tennessee turnovers, and lived in the red-zone with 9 attempts. I won`t be as easy this week against what has quietly been the NFL`s best team over the last 30 regular season games. The Chiefs are 26-4 SU over that period, 20-10 ATS. How can a team that has been out-gained in 17 of those 30 games, and out-gained overall in those 30 games be 26-4? The answer is quite simple, they force turnovers and don`t make many. The Chiefs average just 0.8 turnovers a game in their last 30 while forcing 2.1 per game. Quite simply put a team that has a 1 or more turnover advantage in an NFL game wins 86.9% of the time, and covers 84.9% of the time. The Chiefs continue to do their thing, they turn you over, and run out the clock. They have just 1 turnover in their last 3 games. A team that has played 3 straight turnover free games, facing a team that has made at least 3 turnovers in its last 3 games, are 63-28 ATS, with a 20-4 ATS subset. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Colts have announced that Andrew Luck will once again not play. That only means one thing, the Colts will struggle. History dictates their poor defense will assure they do, as a team that is playing as a home favorite, that allowed 28 or more points in at least 2 straight games, facing a team off a less than 6 point loss are 22-50 ATS. The Colts average just 17.8ppg, despite converting 70% from within the red-zone, which is likely to regress, so getting lucky, and still struggling does not bode well. The Niners are 0-4 but have been knocking on the door, and defend the run very well. Generally speaking, when a team is winless after 4 games or more they cover 56.7% of the time. San Francisco also applies to some extremely strong situations for this game, which are 102-48 ATS, and 72-20 ATS, with a subset at 42-6 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

Maybe the Detroit Lions all carry a rabbit`s foot with them during games. The Lions are 3-1 on the season, and everything has gone their way. They were beaten severely from the line of scrimmage last week by more than 1.5 yards per play, but won. The Lions offense may be ranked in the top 10, but they have scored mostly from starting drives in opponents territory, as they rank last in the league in drives starting in their own territory. Carolina has a legit defense, and have finally taken the collar off of Cam Newton, and are back to allowing him to create plays and impact games with his legs, which is where he excels. Carolina has been the better team thus far on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Panthers apply to some strong turnover situations here as well. Make the play on Carolina.

Whenever the Pats have looked bad over the past few years, the question of Tom Brady's age comes into play. Those moments remain few and far between, and the Pats 2-2 start has nothing to do with the offense. The pats have the worst defense in the league through 4 games, but I wouldn't get to crazy regarding the Pats demise just yet. Bill Belichick often gets things worked out, and I would not be surprised to see them play at a much higher level on defense tonight. This is a team that has a marked history of getting off the mat after a loss, and coming back in their next game and dominating. New England is 28-2 ATS following a loss since the start of the 2003 season to a line of less than -7 in regular season games. (21-0 ATS if their opponent is better than .570). Beating Brady & Belichick isn't easy on a full 6 days of preparation, it is even harder in 3 days, especially after a New England loss. Jameis Winston has slowly improved as a QB, but still tries to force things from time to time, and he may feel the pressure of having to score a lot here, and make a critical mistake or two. Overall, the numbers in this case speak very loud on behalf of the Patriots, make the play on New England.

  Top Side Play · [280] Kansas City Chiefs
    Mon Oct 2nd, 2017 8:30pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

One NFL team that was on my radar for 2017 as improved was Tennessee. That opinion hasn't changed. They had a huge game last week vs Seattle, one that could prove they belong with a win. They out-played the Seahawk's most of the game, and came away with a huge win. Huge, I mean for this team's psyche, a loss would have left them wondering, but that win is going to have them in a totally different mindset, they belong. QB Marcus Mariota has arrived, he is doing a better job of taking care of the ball, and has a set of RB's that are changing the offense, and allowing the defense to get extended rest. DeShaun Watson reminds me of Mariota a couple of years ago. He is playing with a limited set of plays, is feeling himself through games, but also making critical mistakes. he has a 77.5 passer rating, but he can hurt you with his legs, and Tennessee better be aware of that, as I am sure they are. You can see the potential, he just needs time. Houston has been exposed through the air, and might expect Tennessee to take advantage of that, otherwise, I see Tennessee as the team with the mojo right now, and Houston has to be feeling stung after letting one slip away in Foxboro last week. Early in the season, prior to week 5, a team off a road loss and now at home in what amounts to a pick 'em game from +3 to -3 have failed miserably as they are 77-120 ATS. That includes 15-29 ATS if the loss was a stinger, by -4 points or less. Make the play on Tennessee.

The Miami Dolphins caught a bad break when Ryan Tannehill went down with a season ending injury. The Dolphins saw themselves with little choice, and coaxed Jay Cutler out of retirement. The problem is Cutler has been pedestrian at best his entire career. The Miami passing attack numbers reveal, that through 2 games the Miami offense ranks as being the worst in the NFL, and last week vs the NY Jets, they hit bottom, failing to score until the last play of the game. The bad offense puts pressure on a reasonably average defense, but one that suffers against the pass, and that is Drew Brees at his best. Miami has had a very difficult scheduling fluke, as their opener was cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. They have since gone to the west coast to take on the LA Chargers, fly back to Miami, fly to New York to take on the Jets, fly back to Miami, and now fly to London. This team is not playing well, and additionally, have to be feeling travel fatigue. Jay Cutler seems to struggle when his team needs him to put points on the board. He is a woeful 6-28-1 ATS in his career when the total is 47 or higher. The Saints tightened some things up a week ago holding another bad offense to 13 points, in Carolina, should be able to mange the pathetic Dolphin offense here, and exploit the Fins poor pass defense, that is allowing 9 yards per attempt vs much worse offenses. New Orleans in this one.

The Oakland Raiders have searched for a quality QB for years, and they finally have one quickly rising to elite status. It is unlikely that many realize that Derek Carr is now 14-3 in his last 17 games. During that span he has thrown 33 TD's and just 6 INT's, and he is clean this season with 5 TD's and 0 INT's. His yards per attempt are up to 8.2 yard, and he is certainly arriving at elite status. He now has Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, and with an explosive group of receives to throw to, the Oakland offense is as good as it gets. Washington has been a run heavy team thus far this season, and Kirk Cousins is a good QB, but I think Oakland has the better team on both sides of the ball, and expect them to come away with a big road win here. The Raiders fit a situation that is 89-48 ATS as well. Make the play on Oakland.

The Los Angeles Chargers franchise is in disarray right now. They are making themselves a new home in LA, but the fan base is minimal, and this team continues to be snake bit. QB Phillip Rivers continues to play at a high level, but not much else is working right now. The Chargers are 6-16 in their last 22 games, have lost 7 straight, and of the 22 games, 18 have been decided by a single possession, unfortunately for the Chargers they are losing almost all of them. Last week rookie kicker Younghoe Koo missed a FG as time expired, adding another loss. Koo s just 1-4 on his FG attempts this season, another issue. Meanwhile, in Kansas City, QB Alex Smith has taken his last step in becoming an elite QB. he is completing 78% of his passes at 9.8ypa.The Chiefs have also gotten a huge surprise in Toledo RB Kareem Hunt, who has carried 30 times for 229 yards at 7.6 yards a pop. The KC defense has stood up when needed and have recorded 9 sacks already in 2 games. Overall, this team is taking on a look of a champion, and the process didn't just start this season. Kansas City is 2nd to New England over their last 15 games, at 12-3, and they have added a quality RB, and Alex Smith has become an elite QB. The pieces are in place for a big year, and they are still a bit under-rated. Make the play on Kansas City.

I took the top 11 SB`s in regards to the distance from the best offense, to the best defense. Here is an example:

The greatest disparity ever was the 2014 SB as Denver averaged 37.9ppg and the Seattle defense allowed 14.4ppg, the difference, or disparity is:

37.9 - 14.4 = 23.5ppg

I wanted to see how the big offenses, when playing with a huge gap regarding points allowed by the defense in the SB.

The 11 games showed the following results:

The defensive team won 9 times the offensive team 2 times. What is even more clear is the fact that the 2 times the offensive teams won, it wasn`t because of their offense.

1971 DALLAS 24 MIAMI 3 :

Dallas averaged 29ppg the Miami defense allowed 12.4ppg a difference of 16.6ppg, ranked #6 of all SB`s

1968 NY JETS 16 BALTIMORE 7:

Jets averaged 29.9ppg Baltimore allowed 13.4ppg a difference of 16.5ppg

All offensive teams in the 11 games averaged just 14.64ppg in the SB, and allowed 27ppg. Even in the 2 wins they averaged just 20ppg. The 9 losses saw them average 13.44ppg.

So then I looked at the composite game stats of all 11 games. It wasn`t that these teams were stopped from moving the ball, they averaged 388 yards per game. The reason why they lost, was for 3 reasons:

1) Could not convert in the red-zone vs the good defenses

2) Their defense could not stop the opponents offense (27ppg)

3) As expected TURNOVERS

despite most of these big offenses having Hall of Fame caliber QB`s, that did not turn the ball over, they did so in the SB vs the top defenses. A total of 31 turnovers in the 11 games. That is an average of almost 3. Likewise, in the 2 games they won, they forced 8 total turnovers! despite the 8 opponent turnovers, they only averaged 20ppg, so they could not crack the end-zone with or without them. Opponents meanwhile cashed in 51 points in their 9 wins on defensive/special teams scores, or 5.7ppg.

Remember, this is just an 11 game sample, but the disparity in this game is Atlanta offense 33.8ppg NE defense 15.6 or a disparity rating of 18.2ppg.

Many make the mistake at looking at defense/offense as yards gained. That does not matter, it is points that matter. Bill Belichick said in a recent interview, I don`t care how many yards we give up, I care about how many points we give up. The fact is these 11 teams averaged nearly 400 yards a game, but scored 14.64ppg.

No team since 1971 (and there have been 9 games), have cracked the win column with a big offense vs a big defense based on the disparity between them.

The most points in the 11 games a top offense has scored in these games is 24, and only 3 got past 17.

This doesn`t mean NE is going to win, but history is on their side in this report.

IT IS JUST 1 GAME, anything can happen! What we do to make a wager, is decide what is more likely vs what is least likely to occur, and if we are any good at doing it, every 20 games or so we will get 1 more right than the expected 10 from 20 picks. Sounds easy, but what that means, and this is where most fail, if you make just 1 pick out of every 20, just to chase, just to get action, just because the game is on TV, just because of anything other than following disciplined handicapping principles, YOU LOSE! The 1 game in 20 edge is destroyed. That is why most don`t win. if you bet 1.5x on 1 game, because it is someone`s game of the year, and it loses, or you bet 2,3,5 times more, YOUR DEAD!

There is an extreme hype regarding the Atlanta offense. Consider this:

Atlanta 33.8ppg
NE 30.0ppg (with Brady)

Atlanta 415 yds/game
NE 400 yds/game (with Brady)

What I am seeing and hearing is how elite the Atlanta offense is, which is certainly true, but the NE offense is right there with them.

The big difference is on the other side of the ball. Even if many think the Atlanta defense is under-rated, and on the improve, they have given up 24ppg in their last 3, hardly a stellar unit.

Many are also forgetting that Atlanta has the #32 rated red-zone defense. Dead last in the league.

I`ve said it many times, this is just 1 game, but have to go with NE in this one.

Sunday January 22nd, 2017

Since October 19, 2015 the Kansas City Chiefs are an unbelievable 23-5. That is the best record of any NFL team over the last 28 games. They have out-gained their opponents less than half the time, just 13 times total, including just 5 times this season, despite generating 12 wins. The Steelers over the same period have out-gained their opponent 21 times, which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chiefs are doing it with smoke and mirrors. They have had 18 games of the 28 played with an average turnover margin of 2.6, and they are 17-1 SU in these games, and 15-3 ATS. They are 2-8 ATS when the turnover margin is 0 or negative. Since a good percentage of turnovers are random, they are being over-valued here. Turnovers have been directly responsible for 3.5 points per game for the Chiefs this season, and the probability of them having a turnover advantage in this game is 50-50. The Chiefs are the worst 12 win team in NFL history from the line of scrimmage, as their opponents have out-gained them by 26 total yards a game. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 32 from the line of scrimmage and even better than that when they have Brown, Big Ben, and Bell all in the game. There is no telling if their will be a regression to the mean in this particular game for KC, but the line, their 12 wins, and hosting here, are based on numbers that are a lot uglier than the line, so all things being equal, the Steelers have the better team, on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

 Dallas crushed GB at Lambeau 30-16. It would be easy to take away from that...the better team is by far Dallas. Green Bay over the last 7 games, is statistically the best team in the NFL. They have beaten more teams in the playoffs than any other team (7-2).

Green Bay had an 0-4 stretch, ouch! Looking back on those 4 games they had up to 10 starters out! Otherwise this team is 11-2, and even those 13 games were injury laden, as this one will be as well.

I made the statement that GB is the best team in the NFL the last 7 weeks...statistically, here are those numbers:

OFFENSE:

Rushing yards per attempt 4.3
Passing yards per attempt 6.8
Yards per play 5.57

The Packers are 0.75 yards per play better than their opponents in the 7 games. They accomplished the hat trick during the 7 games, scoring 38 points in all 3 games vs arguably the top 3 defenses in the NFL, Minnesota, Seattle, NY Giants. Rodgers has thrown 22 TD`s to 0 INT`s, and has been the best QB in the league for years, and is playing at an all-time high level right now.

There are concerns. GB has lost so many CB`s to injury, they are vulnerable, on the sidelines, when they don`t have safety help over the top. This will be concerning, because if they try to play a 2-deep, Prescott is going to change the play at the line of scrimmage, and a heavy dose of Elliott will be a problem with not enough in the box to contain him. The Packers are going to have to pick their poison, Elliott or Prescott going long on the outside. They have done well in the last 7 games in this regard, but Dallas is a bigger challenge.

The assumption is that Prescott will be Prescott, most likely he will be, but this is his 1st playoff game, so until he gets settled into the game, it is a wait and see, there is a small chance he implodes. I`m sure GB is going to try and put a lot of heat on him early to test him.

Not only has GB won the line of scrimmage in their 7-0 run, they are 16 in turnover margin, and have played 5 straight clean games (0 turnovers), and just 1 turnover in their last 7. They are the 2nd team since division realignment to come into a playoff game with 0 turnovers in 5 straight games, the other was SF in 2011, who won and covered, winning the turnover battle. I have GB qualifying in a turnover situation that is 38-4 ATS. teams that enter week 19 with some mojo, a streak of 2-7 wins, are 27-9 ATS if they are not a 10 point dog.

week 19 teams that allowed less tan 20 points in their last game, playing to a line of less than 9, vs an opponent that scored less than 35pts in their last game are 23-5 ATS, and a perfect 21-0 ATS if the total is less than 43 or the total is greater than 45.5. That 21-0 ATS situation shows the worst loss a team has suffered was by 7 points, and just 3 by more than 5 points!

Week 19 home favorites from -4 to -9 are 6-18 ATS since 2006. In the end, like always, this is just 1 game, anything can happen. You do your bes, do your homework, and come out with an opinion. I happen to like GB here.

This is a game of contrasts, that brings the NFL's best offense up against the NFL's best defense over the last 5 years. The Seahawks won in Seattle 26-24, but a no-call on Richard Sherman against Julio Jones was highly contested, and Seattle took the win. Those things tend to stick with teams, and this time Atlanta gets Seattle at home. There is a stark contrast with this Seattle team playing at home vs on the road, in fact it is staggering. They averaged 28.1ppg at home, and just 15.9ppg on the road, and 3 times on the road scored  6 points or less. Seattle has a problem with their offensive line, and Russell Wilson who used to bailout the offense with his legs, has been dealing with injuries all season, and is at a career low in carries, yards, and yards per attempt. he has also had the worst passer rating of his NFL career, and thrown more INT's than any previous year. The Seattle defense is still very good, but no longer elite. The loss of Earl Thomas really hurt. Since that injury the Seahawks have given up 38 to Green Bay, 34 to Arizona, and 23 to lowly SF. Matty Ice has had his best year in Atlanta. The Falcons have gone for 33 or more points in 11 of 16 games, and the Atlanta offense vs the Seattle defense, is much further apart than the Atlanta defense vs the Seattle offense. The Seattle pass defense is now average allowing 6.7 yards per attempt to teams that average 6.6, and now worse without Thomas. Atlanta should be able to score plenty in this game, and they are a combined 1 yard per play better than the Seahawks, and the line is not reflective of it. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Detroit Lions were 9-4, and all they had to do was win one of their last 3 games to clinch the NFC North and they failed to do so. That means they are on the road to open the playoffs against the Seattle Seahawks, a very dangerous home team. The Lions have been 0-3 since Matthew Stafford dislocated a finger on his throwing hand. The Lions have the ugliest history of any NFL team playing out west, as they are a brutal 1-19 SU and 2-18 ATS combined vs the AFC West, and the NFC West. They have lost these games by an average score of 29.7 to 15.7, or 14ppg. The Lions had a patsy schedule and finished the regular season 0-5 SU vs teams that have made the playoffs. They also fit a horrible profile, as teams that are not fumble prone, and average less than 0.4 lost fumbles a game, are not favored by 4 or more points, to a total of less than 47, are 0-10 ATS in the playoffs. Seattle is 17-1-1 ATS on turf as a favorite, if they threw for 282 or more yards in their last game. Finally, week 18 home favorites of -8 or more are 9-0 SU/ATS, winning by an average score of 30-12. Make the play on Seattle.

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Denver

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

San Diego                              

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

San Francisco                              

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

LA Rams                             

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Washington                             

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

CINN                              

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Miami

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Philadelphia                           

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

NY Jets                              

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Tennessee                              

The NY Giants are most likely to be the top wild card team, unless something crazy happens, so this is not a very big season maker or breaker for them. The biggest thing I have for this game is a very strong 101-48 ATS situation on the Eagles, as well as a 51-15 ATS late season home dog situation. Make the play on Philadelphia