This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS and the play is on Tampa Bay.

The Denver Broncos offense has been awful. Many thought when Russell Wilson came over that the Denver offense would flourish. That has not been the case. The Broncos have scored 16 points or fewer in 4 of their 5 games. The good news is the defense has come to the rescue as the Bronco's defense has allowed 17 points or fewer in 4 of 5 games. Denver has not allowed over 200 passing yards all season and have held 3 opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards. The Chargers are offensive dependent, and I don't see them moving the ball a lot in this game. The Denver offense should be able to generate more points vs a banged up Charger's defense that has allowed 3 straight opponents to average over 400 yards. I like Denver in this one.

These plays are based on some line value and game situations. This one fits a situation that is 131-88 ATS and the play is on Philadelphia.

Looking at the stats for this game Buffalo has certainly out-played Kansas City, but digging deeper makes things look quite different. This will be Pat Mahomes 42nd career start at home. He was favored in all 41 up until this one. Mahomes and the Chiefs are 33-8 SU at home, so giving points to Mahomes at home is not very logical. There is also the Josh Allen numbers. Allen is just 19-16 SU in his 35 road starts. The Chiefs also have revenge from last year's playoff loss to the Bills. Arrowhead Stadium is the loudest stadium in the NFL, and it will be at its loudest for this one. Chiefs, and mMahomes sky high for this one, and you can't measure that in stats. Make the play on Kansas City.

The LA Rams have 20 players on the injury report this week. Their offensive line has taken a huge hit as they have lost almost everyone including a couple of backups. This isn't the Super Bowl team from last year. Matthew Stafford is taking a beating. The Rams offensive line has allowed 84 pressures already which is more than any other team. The Rams have scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of their 5 games this season and are 2-3. Carolina has lost games by 2 and 3 points, and are not as bad as their 2-3 record might suggest. They will have to go with PJ Walker in this one so I don't expect a lot of offense from Carolina either. A team that has scored 10 points or less in 2 straight games has occurred 529 times in the NFL and these teams average 18ppg in their next game. I think laying this many points with an offense that is really banged up is way too much. Make the play on Carolina.

The Indianapolis Colts are 2-2-1 and they have played one bad game all season, and it was against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts were completely shut down in that game losing 24-0. An NFL team that was shutout in their last meeting against a team covers 54.4% of all games when that opponent scored 24 or more points. That is a good starting point as I think these teams bring a little extra to these games. Turnovers have cost the Colts more than anything else, so it kind of makes them look like an inferior team. I would rank these teams pretty close to even from the line of scrimmage, but with a mental edge for revenge and home field, I like Indianapolis.

These plays are based on some line value and game situations. This one fits a situation that is 58-21 ATS and the play is on Baltimore.

This game fits a situation that has to do with certain teams off a shutout win and is 20-1 ATS. The play is on New England.

The Dallas Cowboys have been riding their back up QB Cooper Rush and he has really been impressive. The Rams on the other hand are in trouble. It isn't so much about Matthew Stafford as it is about the offensive line. The Rams offensive front is on life support and they allowed 23 pressures last week vs San Francisco. The Rams are 2nd from the bottom in the league in pass blocking efficiency and Dallas is getting pressure on 42% of all snaps. I don't see the Rams offense giving Stafford enough pressure, and this game appears to look very similar to last week for the Rams and that didn't work out very well. Make the play on Dallas.

Tampa Bay and Atlanta are both 2-2 on the season. That is where the similarities end. The Bucs have beaten the Falcons 3 straight times by margins of 17, 23, and 13. This is a game of mismatches and most of them go against Atlanta. The Bucs will dominant both sides of the line of scrimmage. Bucs are going to fired up after their disaster last week vs Pat Mahomes. Lay the bundle and play Tampa Bay.

Cleveland has gotten the best running game in the NFL. That means they are going to give the LA Chargers fits as the Chargers are horrible against the run. Cleveland has gained 171 or more yards rushing in every game this season, and this looks like it will add to that. The Chargers have a ton of injuries to some key players and this is not a good spot for them traveling to the Eastern time zone with a wounded team. Small home dogs with a good offense excel in the NFL. A home dog of 3.5 points or fewer that averages 360 or more yards per game are 126-90-6 ATS. I like Cleveland in this one.

Most bettors do not like to lay a lot of points. I never base a pick on the line, but the match up and history. The huge home favorites in the NFL have been cash cows. NFL home favorites of 11 or more points are 78-43-5 ATS, including 41-19-1 ATS if the home favorite has a winning percentage of .700 or better. Make the play on Buffalo.

Geno Smith is playing better than he has ever. Despite his efforts and the above average Seattle offense, the Seahawks defense has been brutally bad. Jameis Winston is not far behind at 7.5 yards per pass attempt but the Saints are strong defensively. Some of what Smith is doing is against bad defenses, but in 2 games vs a good defense the Seahawks have scored 17 and 7 points. The Saints are also in a great spot. A 1-3 NFL team facing an opponent off a win and as long as they are not a dog of 9 or more points have gone 64-29-3 ATS. Make the play on New Orleans.

Buffalo heads to Baltimore today with redemption in mind. They lost to Miami last week 21-19 but the stats presented a different story. Buffalo may have lost but the stats show they out-gained Mimai 497-212. The perspective on that shows an NFL team that out-gains their opponent by 275 or more yards are 191-8 SU in the NFL. Buffalo remains the best team in the NFL so far, and I would expect they come out blazing in this one off a misleading loss. The Ravens own a loss to Miami also but the difference was they gave up 547 yards to the Dolphins. This isn't the Baltimore defense of recent years and the Buffalo defense has enough to slow the Ravens offense. I like Buffalo in this one.

Both Tennessee and Indianapolis saved their season last week. The Titans slipped past Las Vegas 24-22, while the Colts squeaked past Kansas City 20-17. They are both still in a must win situation as we head to week 4. Tennessee owns a win vs the only NFL team without a win and they have been out-gained by all 3 opponents on the season. Indianapolis is well positioned to slow the Titans running attack as they are allowing just 77 rushing yards per game. Recently the Titans have played well against the Colts but they remain 12-28 SU against Indianapolis in the last 40 meetings. Bigger than those numbers is a situation that is 77-34 ATS that favors the Colts in this one. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Cleveland Browns have gotten strong QB play out of Jacoby Brissett. He is doing just enough for the Cleveland ground game to control games. Brissett has 4 TD passes to just 1 INT. The Atlanta offense has been equally good behind Marcus Mariota, but the similarities change from there. They are getting ripped on the ground and through the air. The net per play for the Falcons has been negative yards per play. Cleveland should be able to run the ball and keep the worst part of the Atlanta team, their defense, on the field. The Browns are in a highly favorable 207-138 ATS situation as well. Make the play on Cleveland.

The Detroit Lions have been bad for a long time. They seemed to be short on both sides of the ball, but through 2 games and a 1-1 record the Lions offense has looked as good as anyone, while the defense has been average. Minnesota has been below average offensively and defensively. The Vikings just surrendered nearly 500 yards to Philadelphia and ran the ball just 11 times. Detroit has a decent pass rush, and I think they will be disruptive here. Goff has outplayed Cousins through 2 games, and that may continue here. Detroit broke an 8 game losing streak to Minnesota last year, and I think this is too many points in a division game that looks a lot closer to me. Make the play on Detroit.

This is a season saving game for one of these teams. If a team starts 0-3 the chances of making the playoffs is really low. Both these teams made the playoffs last year, so this is a huge game for both teams. Ryan Tannehill has seen his passing numbers plunge without AJ Brown. That goes back before he was signed by the Eagles. He averaged fewer than 5 and a half yards per pass without Brown, and so far this season he has been under 5. He also lost LT Taylor Lewan. The Tennessee running game has been stopped. Without the offensive line performing at a modest level, Henry can find no running room. The Tennessee defense has been very poor. The Titans are a negative -2 yards per play in terms of what the defense allows and the offense produces. Las Vegas is a net positive in that regard, and I think Davante Adams is in for a big day here. Vegas opened up as a dog, but are rightfully posted as the favorite as they are significantly better on both sides of the ball.

Nobody wants a part of the Colts right now. They tied Houston and were shutout by Jacksonville, and now they have to deal with Pat Mahomes. The over-reaction of NFL bettors regarding a team that was shutout last week is substantial and line influencing. Since the 2014 season a team off a shutout is 29-13-2 ATS. That goes to 10-1-1 ATS if the line is fewer than 9 points. Looks ugly, but the NFL better bets usually do look ugly. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Green Bay Packers were beaten badly by the Minnesota Vikings in game 1. It was a lot like their opener last year vs the Saints. Green Bay was missing 3 offensive linemen and their top 3 receivers from a year ago. The packers have lost 9 regular season games over the last 3 years, and they are 9-0 SU and ATS in their next game. Chicago surprised San Francisco last week but the game was played in a torrential rainstorm, and the Bears aren't good enough to hang in this one vs a Green Bay team that has dominated them over the years. Lots of situations on the Packers off a loss, and even a few others. I like Green Bay big in this one.

The Jacksonville Jaguars could have easily won last week but instead they settled for a 28-22 loss. The encouraging thing about the Jags offense is new head coach Doug Pederson is having QB Trevor Lawrence throw downfield a lot more. Lawrence finished second last week with an average depth of target of 10.6 yards. Matt Ryan had success in his debut for Indianapolis but 8 trips inside of Jacksonville territory netted them just 20 total points. I think Lawrence will have some success downfield this week vs Indianapolis, and the Jag's fit a situation that is 77-41 ATS. Make the play on Jacksonville.

The Seattle Seahawks have arguably the biggest home field advantage in the NFL. Since the start of the 2010 season they have a winning outright record as a home dog, and are 16-6-1 ATS. Since the start of the 2012 season the Seahawks have lost 1 home game by 7 points or more (9 points). Very hard to go against them with a line this big on a Monday Night at home, facing their former QB Russell Wilson. Make the play on Seattle.

This game fits a situation that is 57-15 ATS, and the play is on Dallas.

I think the LA Chargers are going to be one of the top offenses this season in the NFL, if not the best. I also think the coaching changes and the money they spent on defense is going to elevate this team significantly on that side of the ball. The Raiders play with a lot of variance and a lot of people are high on them because they have Devante Adams now. Chargers fit a 47-14 ATS week 1 situation. I still see the Chargers as clearly the better team in this one. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

Baker Mayfield gets to start against his old team the Cleveland Browns. He has talked revenge, but I don't think he has a lot of playmakers in this offense, and if anyone knows his weaknesses, and will be ready to exploit them, it is Cleveland. The Browns will start Jacoby Brissett at QB. He looked horrible in Miami but the Dolphins offensive line was brutal and he will have better protection here. He also has Amari Cooper to throw to. Cleveland has some great young CB's that were good a year ago, and should progress more this season. Cleveland is the better team, and I will make this pick on Cleveland.

The Forty Niners play the Rams better and tougher than any other team. They are even in a lot of ways and I consider this game a toss-up. The Rams are home but if you look at the last game played in LA, the crowd was pretty balanced, so I don't expect home field to be worth anything. The Rams are very good playing a base defense, and they realize vs San Francisco that is the way they play them. They did so about 20% of the time on the season, but 52% of the time vs San Francisco, with relative success. The Rams have somewhat of an issue. They have a #3 ranked defense in the first half, but that falls to 13th in the third quarter and 29th in the 4th. The Niners have already experienced that themselves in the last meeting. Cooper Kupp could be a problem. The Niners rank 31st in the league vs #1 WRs, and Kupp went for 118 and 122 yards in the first 2 meetings. Despite that, it wasn't enough to win. They have limited Higby as they have been very good vs TEs al season. I look for a lot of zone defense from San Francisco. Stafford has 12 INTs this season vs zone defenses, and just 3 vs man. The Niners are every bit the equal to the Rams. You probably heard how hard it is to bet a team 3 times in a row in the same season. There has been 3 such incidents where a team won the first 2 meetings, and met for the third time as a dog. Two of the 3 won outright. Small sample size but it destroys the theory that a team can't win all 3. I think the Niners add to the demise of that theory. Make the play on San Francisco.

The final game for the right to be in the Superbowl. The Bengals biggest win of the season came against the Chiefs. A lot has broken right for the Bengals including the 3rd easiest schedule, and favorable playoff match ups with two teams that were worse than they were. Their only top 15 win on the season came against Kansas City, and it took a lot for that to happen, and it was at home. It took a conversion on 3rd and 27, a called back kick off return TD that would have made the score 35-17, and several Kansas City defensive penalties to keep drives going. Additionally, Chase had a game for the ages. Moreover, Hill and Kelce missed the prior week with covid and did not appear to be up to peak conditioning or health. I don't think this game will be close, and I would be surprised if the Chiefs don't put up 40 plus points once again. I don't see the Bengals offensive line holding up in this one as they were exposed last week, and if they are exposed vs the Chiefs again, it will be a blowout. I cap this game at Kansas City -13, and it may be more than that. Make the play on Kansas City.

The NFL playoffs have gone through Tom Brady it seems like forever. The defending Super Bowl Champs took a 31-0 lead over Philadelphia to get here, and had that look once again. The Rams however are a much bigger challenge, but until someone dethrones Brady, I have to see it. Matthew Stafford was brought in to take the Rams to the next level, and he has been mostly good, but Stafford has a wide range of expectations. When he is good he can be really good, but he also has a dark bad side and can be really bad. Brady has lost a lot of his offensive firepower as Brown and Godwin are out. It somehow doesn`t seem to matter as the Bucs offense looked crisp last week, and the defense shutdown the Eagles explosive ground game. I think the experience the Bucs have from last year will go a long way in determining the outcome, and Brady is seldom rattled regardless of pressure, which the Rams certainly can provide. I just think the Bucs have the edge in the right places, and until someone can dethrone Brady no matter what it may look like, I`m not going against him. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

The Green Bay Packers are 13-3 with Rodgers for the 3rd season in a row. That means they don't lose a lot, and in those 3 years under LaFleur they are 9-0 SU and ATS off a loss. The Packers are going to benefit greatly having extra rest. They will have several high-caliber starters back on the field, so expect them to be better. The Niners struggle with the deep ball and Rodgers is primed to exploit that. San Francisco just doesn't have a stand-out in the secondary to cover Adams, and they may turn to more zone coverage, but Rodgers will eat that alive. A team that won their playoff game on the road on a Sunday and are on short rest playing Saturday are 17-32 ATS since 2009. Green Bay went 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS vs playoff teams this year, the best mark in the league. This will be the third straight road game for San Francisco, and 6th in their last 8 games. Aaron Rodgers wins a lot of games because he simply does not turn the ball over, and a team in the playoffs that force more turnovers per game is 33-15-1 ATS in the playoffs. Rodgers owns a 42-21-1 ATS mark off a loss. Green Bay usually has a special teams disadvantage, but the Niners are as bad as they are. Garoppolo is battling injuries as are several of the Forty Niners. Green Bay missed their opportunity to get to the Super Bowl the last 2 years, and I think they are going to be plying at an ultra high level for this one. There is no doubt which QB I want on my side in this one. Make the play on Green Bay.

The Tennessee Titans used an NFL record 91 players this season. Despite all the injuries they still managed to finish the regular season as the #1 seed in the AFC. The Titans have taken a lot of flack for being one of the worst #1 overall seeds in the NFL playoffs ever. Regardless how you spin it, this team has faced 4 of the 8 teams still in the playoffs and beat them all. (SF, LA,Buffalo, and KC. They have a very favorable match up vs Cincinnati. The Bengals were lucky to survive the wild card round, and I think they are going to have a lot more trouble here. Tennessee made great strides this season against the pass. They finished 3oth a year ago, and 11th this year. Their adjusted sack rate went from 31st to 10th, and their hurry rate from 30th to 10th. They have accomplished this by blitzing less than 20% of the time, and Burrow has been far better against a blitz than a 4 man rush this season. Tennessee got to Mahomes 4 times a season high. They also got to Stafford 5 times, which tied a season high, and Tagovialoa 4 times, and he wasn't dropped more than twice all season. The difference has been the addition of Bud Dupree. When he plays the numbers increase dramatically. If Cincinnati can get pressure with just 4 rushers, the Bengals are going to be in a lot of trouble, and with RT Riley Reiff ruled out, and another suspect offensive lineman in Isaiah Prince, the Bengals should be able to pressure Burrow with 4. The Bengals offense improves dramatically when Brown and Jones play the entire game. When Brown plays they are 11-2, when Brown and Jones play they are 7-1, so they are 1-3 without Brown, and 5-4 without both. They will have both for this one. Henry is not much of a factor, except in one area, he provides big play scoring potential, but they have gotten along fine without him. Cincinnati has played 5 straight turnover free games in a row, but has been out-gained by 3 of them. I like Tennessee in this one.

The Arizona Cardinals will meet the LA Rams for thee third time this season. They have split two games, so it is fitting that the winner here moves on. Arizona was 7-0 to start the season and this is what has changed. At 7-0 they scored 31 or more points in 6 of them, since with Murray at QB thy have scored 31 or more points just 1 time in 8 games. Murray had 3 rushing TDs in the first 3 weeks,just 2 since. The defense allowed more than 20 points 1 time at 7-0, and in all 7 games Murray started since. Murray vs the Rams in week 14 had a 72.1 passer rating which was his 2nd worse of the year. Murray had a passer rating of 104 or higher in 6 of the first 7 games, just twice since. The Rams are winning despite the sudden burst if INT thrown by Matthew Stafford.The Rams have made 9 turnovers in the last 4 weeks are despite of it are 3-1, with the only loss by 3 points in overtime, and they are 5-1 in their last 6. Arizona is the most frequent blitzing team in the league but Stafford ranks #1 against the blitz in 140 drop backs. Arizona blitzes 33.6% of the time. That isn't going to go well for them unless they step out of character. Murray will be starting his first playoff game, and a QB making his playoff debut against a QB that isn't have gone 17-38-1 ATS (including 0-2 ATS this year). If this is a teams first playoff game in at least 2 seasons and going against a team that is a repeat playoff team they are 21-39-1 ATS. If they are on the road it gets worse where they are 6-20-1 ATS. If the line is -5.5 to +5.5 they are 0-9 ATS! Make the play on the LA Rams.

Pittsburgh limped into the playoffs as Indianapolis stumbled vs the Houston Texans, opening the door for Pittsburgh to creep into the playoffs. This looks like the last time around for Ben Roethlisburger. All his numbers are in decline and the Steelers offense has managed just 20.4ppg on the season. The Steelers have been out-gained by 35 yards per contest, and now have to deal with a Kansas City team that has rediscovered their elite offense and has averaged 35.4ppg in their last 5, while the defense has allowed 10 points or fewer in 4 of its last 7. NFL playoff games with a home favorite of 10 points or more are 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS since 2008, including a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last 10 where they have won by an average of 18ppg. Make the play on Kansas City.

Mr. East Sun Jan 16th, 2022 4:30 pm EST Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NFL SUNDAY THROWBACK
Expert Analysis: The Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco used to be arch enemies as they met in the playoffs what seems like every season. It has been 27 years since they have played each other in the post-season. Perhaps this should be the Madden game, as he and Pat Summerall called 8 consecutive Dallas vs San Francisco games over a 6 year period in the '90s, which included 3 straight NFC Championship Games. Dallas has for the most part been consistently good all season, while the Niners found themselves in the second half of the season. San Francisco tied with Tampa Bay for the best record in the NFL in their last 9 games at 7-2, which is better than Dallas. The Niners running game has become elite, and that is the most vulnerable area of the Dallas defense. The 49ers have had 10 drives that used at least 7 minutes of clock on the season, and have had drives of over 11 and 13 minutes. The Dallas defensive front has allowed 100 rushing yards in 11 of its final 12 games. The Dallas offense is going to come down to pressure. San Francisco defends the run very well, as they do short passes, where they rank 4th. They are however dead last defending deep passes, and if they give Prescott time to look deep, Amari Cooper is going to win the game for Dallas. The Niners have been flagged 23 times for defensive pass interference and a total of 367 yards. Worst in the league. Lamb has not been nearly close to the level of Cooper on deep throws. Prescott has thrown 5 of his 7 INT when looking for Lamb deep. The good news for San Francisco is they play a lot of cover 3 to hide their deep pass vulnerability and Prescott has just 3 TDs and 3 INTs facing a cover 3 defense. It will come down to how much pressure the Niners front 7 can get on Prescott. Dallas has 34 offensive holding calls against them this year top in the league, and Dallas has 2 wins vs Philadelphia to show for their games against teams that made the playoffs, and losses to everyone else outside of New England who wasn`t the same team early in the season at 2-4. I think the Niners have a better shot at dictating the tempo, and the line of scrimmage and running dogs in the playoffs tend to perform very well. When 2 teams meet in the wildcard game that did not make the playoffs the previous season the home team is 3-13 SU and 2-14 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.
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The Philadelphia Eagles did enough to make it to the playoffs with a 9-8 record. Some of the numbers inside of that record speak volumes. The Eagles did not beat a winning team all season. They also finished the season at 0-6 SU vs playoff teams where they lost by an average of 13.3ppg. Against everyone else they were 9-2 and won by an average of 13.2ppg. That is an amazing 26.5ppg swing, and the highest such differential in NFL playoff history. The Bucs have been a lethal team playing at home where they have lost just 1 time all season. They beat Philly on the road earlier this season 28-22 in a game they led 28-7 and held Philadelphia to 5 consecutive possessions where they generated 0 first downs and 28 total yards. The Bucs obviously pulled back, but that won't be the case in the playoffs. This will be Jalen Hurts first playoff teams which is usually a harbinger of what to expect. A first time playoff QB facing a team that does not have a first time QB is 17-36-1 ATS since 2004! Moreover a playoff team that won fewer than 6 games the previous season (Philadelphia was 4-11-1 last year), are 13-31 ATS in the playoffs the following season. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

The Buffalo Bills split a pair of games in the regular season. The Patriots won in a game that featured extreme winds and did so by passing just 3 times the entire game. Buffalo dominated the rematch in every facet of the game on the road in New England just 3 weeks ago. The Bills have been the best NFL team this season from a statistical standpoint. They have out-gained their opponents by 109 yards per game, and a full yard per play. Josh Allen has had a very good season, but not a great one, but he has a dimension that makes him hard to play against. He is a highly skilled runner, and can make plays with his legs. Since beating Buffalo in the wins, the Patriots just have not looked the same. They have played 4 times and the only team they beat was Jacksonville. They lost the other 3 games by a minimum of 9 points. I think Buffalo has real chance to come out of the AFC and represent then in the Super Bowl. There is a lot more talent on both sides of the ball, and it will show at home in 5 degree weather, which I think impacts Mac Jones more than Allen. Playoff teams with a QB starting his first playoff game vs one that has experience, are 17-36-1 ATS since 2004. Make the play on Buffalo.

The path to the playoffs was completely different for these teams. The Bengals won to put them in a tie for the division lead in week 15. They took the division lead the following week, and clinched the division in week 17. The cardiac Raiders were in 11th place in the AFC entering week 15. They had a margin of error of 0, and proceeded to win their final 4 games by a combined 12 points. It went all the way down to the final play of their final game to get in. The Bengals took advantage of an easy schedule that saw them face just 6 teams that made the playoffs out of a 17 game schedule. When you take a look at the stats this game is pretty even, but the Bengals by virtue of their big win against Kansas City where the offense looked scary good, has really impacted this game. The Bengals are going to struggle to stop Jacobs. Jacobs ranked 3rd in the NFL in broken tackles (56), and the Bengals defense allowed more broken tackles than any team besides the lowly Detroit Lions. The Raiders have another weapon in Renfro that who finished 4th among all WRs in broken tackles. The outcome of this game is going to come down to how much pressure the Raiders can put on Burrough. Burrough only played 3 games vs top 10 defenses, and had 6 vs bottom 10 defenses. He was sacked 50 times, and threw made a lot of mistakes. Maxx Crosby may be the key for the Raiders defense. While he had just 8 sacks, he led the NFL with 51 pressures, and if he has success putting pressure on Burrough he is likely going to make some costly mistakes. I think this game is a lot closer than it looks, and the Raiders have a lot of experience in close games having gone 7-2 on the season in one-possession games. That includes 4-0 in overtime games, while the Bengals were just 4-5 in one score games. The weather should not be a factor with the temperature around freezing and light winds. Make the play on Las Vegas.

Saturday January 8th, 2022

  Top Side Play · [470] Philadelphia Eagles

    Sat Jan 8th, 2022 8:15pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

While there is still a chance the Kansas City Chiefs can overtake the Tennessee Titans for the number 1 overall seed and a bye in the first round of the playoffs the line has been radically changed for that purpose. The fact that Tennessee is going against Houston makes the likelihood a lot smaller. The bigger thing in play here is the over-adjustment to the line is well noted in NFL late season games where a team that is eliminated from the playoffs facing a team that is still jockeying for position tends to go the way of the under dog. Beyond that a team with a lower winning percentage in the final game of the season is 254-198-10 ATS covering 56.2% of all games. Make the play on Denver.

There is a pretty good chance that Tennessee will have Julio Jones and A.J. Brown back on the field Sunday. This should add a lot more firepower to the Titans offense. Both sides have some minor covid issues, but most appear will be resolved by game-time. Miami has rattled off 7 straight wins, and turnover margin has been the biggest reason, as their opponents have averaged 2 turnovers per game in the last 7. A good part of that is random, so don't expect the same numbers going forward. The Titans have committed 4+ turnovers in 3 of its last 5 games, and that won't continue either. What it does do is set up a turnover situation that plays on certain recent turnover differentials, that is 137-72 ATS. It favors the Titans this week. Make the play on Tennessee.

This is a game that feature a long winning streak by the Chiefs. That usually has the effect of making odds-makers over valuing the team on the long streak. There are a lot of very strong situations favoring the Bengals in this game. One is to play against a road favorite of -4 points or more, from game 12 on if they are favored by 4 or more points. Those teams are 1-19-1 ATS. Make the play on Cincinnati.

There is no longer playoff hopes for either the Chicago Bears or the NY Giants. Both teams are off yet another disappointing season, as the rebuild in Chicago and New York seems to still be a long way off. Each team is dealing with extensive roster issues as the injury bug has plagued both teams, so it is a matter of will here that will have a lot of input on the winner of this game. I just don`t see the Bears being just about a TD and extra point better than anyone right now. The Bears own 5 wins on the season, and 3 of those have come by 3 points or fewer. It has been nearly 3 months since the Bears won a game by 7 or more points. Make the play on the NY Giants.

The New Orleans Saints have had injury issues all season and the QB spot has been hit the hardest. Winston, Siemian, and now Hill are all out. Their 4th string QB Ian Book will get his first NFL start. I don't expect Sean Payton to expect much, and the game plan is going to revolve around Alvin Kamara as he is going to be burdened with a lot of the offensive load. It will be the Saints defense that will have to step up. Miami has worked their way into the playoff picture at 7-7. Miami has won 6 straight games. That includes wins over the Giants, Houston, Carolina, and the Jets twice. New Orleans is also 7-7 and very much alive in the NFC playoff race. Book can run a little and I think the Saints will rely on his legs more than his arm, and will generate enough offense to get the win. Make the play on New Orleans.

This game is strictly an extremely strong situation that is 71-24 ATS. Make the play on Chicago.

It seems like every game is important as we come down the stretch of the NFL season. Baltimore and Cincinnati are both 8-6 and the winner will have a leg up on the hotly contested AFC North. Baltimore will again be without Lamar Jackson, but Tyler Huntley got noticed last week. He was 28-40 for 215 yards and 2 TD and 0 INT. He also ran 13 times for 73 yards and a pair of TD. Baltimore will try and do what they did in Green Bay. They will use the short passing and running game to keep from getting exposed from the Bengal passing game. Baltimore still has a lot of covid-19 question marks, but this is still a very good team, and if Huntley can use his legs like last week, and not make mistakes, the Ravens are going to be in this one to win it s they were last week against Green Bay. Make the play on Baltimore.

Minnesota has been eliminated from the NFC North, but at 7-7 their wildcard hopes are going to improve or go south after this week. The Vikings follow their game with the Rams by going to Green Bay, so they have a lot of work to do. Kirk Cousins has injured ribs but will play, but unfortunately for the Vikings Dalvin Cook will not, and that is big. Additionally, Adam Thielen is questionable. The Rams are finally playing as well as the talent level the team possesses. The Rams have won 3 straight and are currently 1 of 4 NFC teams at 10-4, so obviously this is a huge game for them as well. The biggest take away from this game is the Rams play makers are healthy and the Vikings are not. Make the play on the LA Rams.

Jacksonville finally made a coaching change, but it made little difference as the Jags lost to Houston 30-16. It marks their 6th straight loss. It was also the 8th straight game Jacksonville scored 17 points or less. They are averaging 13.7ppg on the road for the season. The Jets are dealing with covid-19 issues with about 15 or so players, but none have been ruled out yet. The Jags are still waiting for Trevor Lawrence to show something but his 9 TD and 14 INT are woeful for the expectations he brought. Zach Wilson hasn't been much better for the Jets. The jets have turned the ball over just 4 times in their last 5 games, and that is where the edge is in this game as Lawrence has been a turnover machine all season, and the Jets do have a pass rush so it won't be easy for Lawrence, especially on the road. Make the play on the NY Jets.

The New England Patriots have a game lead on the Buffalo Bills and can punch their ticket as AFC Champs with a win. That wil not be easy as Buffalo lost a tough one at home 14-10 to the Patriots just less than 3 weeks ago. The game was tough to use as a gauge as the winds were gusting up to 60 MPH, and New England won despite passing the ball just 3 times. New England followed that game with a loss vs Indianapolis 27-17. The Bills are significantly better on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and they will be playing for revenge. The Bills know they have to win here, or suddenly even their chance of getting into the playoffs as a wild card become suspect. I like the feel for this game. The Bills have revenge, they are playing for their playoff lives, and are the better team. MAke the play on Buffalo.

Saturday December 25th, 2021

  Top Side Play · [454] Green Bay Packers
    Sat Dec 25th, 2021 4:30pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

The Chicago Bears have little left to play for after losing to the Packers last week. Chicago scored 30 points in that game, but half of those points can be credited to the Packer poor special teams. This is a difficult motivational spot for the Bears, and a lot of personnel issues they face make this a daunting task. Chicago will be missing their entire starting secondary. The Bears are also down 3 starting tackles for this game, much as they were against Green Bay, and Justin Fields was under pressure all game. Kirk Cousins has quietly had a great season with 23 TD's to just 5 INT. He should pick apart the shorthanded secondary, and with Fields facing pressure all game, I don't see the Bears keeping up in this one. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Cleveland Browns have a mess on their hands with over 20 players dealing with covid-19 issues that moved the game to Monday. Some may play, as others sit out, but you can be sure the Brown's practices for this week have not been able to address or rehearse much of a game plan. Vegas on the other hand has no reported players on the injury report and is the healthiest team in the NFL. Vegas was trampled last week by Kansas City 48-9. They handed the game over to the Chiefs by committing 5 turnovers while forcing 0. A team losing by 31 or more points the previous week covers 55% of their next game. Tough spot for Cleveland, that possibly will be down to a 3rd string QB. Make the play on Vegas.

It took a game vs the Jets for New Orleans to end a 5 game losing streak. Prior to that the Saints lost 3 straight by double-digits, and now take on last year's Superbowl Champs that is starting to make their stretch drive. The Bucs have won and covered 4 straight games and lost to New Orleans earlier in the season 36-27. The Bucs were -3 in turnovers in that game, and will be seeking revenge in prime time tonight. The Bucs elite offense has gained 418 yards per game over ts last 4 and has produced 30 points or more in all of them. Tampa Bay will be playing its 7th game of the season as a double-digit favorite and are 5-1 ATS in the first 6 winning by an average of 18.2ppg. The margin has been 20+ in 4 of them. Tom Brady is 30-15 ATS in his last 45 home games as a favorite, including 23-7 ATS as a favorite from -10 to -17 points. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

It is becoming more apparent that Lamar Jackson may miss the game vs. Green Bay. At best for the Ravens is he plays at less than 100%. The Ravens are in need of a win, and with or without Jackson, I think they are going to show up this week against the new #1 team in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers. The Packers now hold their own destiny to retain the #1 seed in the NFC and get all playoff games at Lambeau. How important is that? The Packers are 6-0 at home and just 4-3 on the road. While three of the road games resulted in losses, three of the wins came by three points or fewer. This is just an entirely different team home vs. away. This line has really gone over the top as the difference in this team on the road vs. at home is considerable. And while they may carve out a win, the number is too high now. Make the play on Baltimore.

The Niners' season was about to go south, but they have gone 4-1 in their last five games and are now well in the playoff hunt. There are a lot of teams packed together, so each game carries a lot of weight. They may have become overrated as the reason they are winning is they have had an 11-4 turnover advantage over their last five games. The Niners have allowed 79 points in their last 3 games or 26.3ppg, and the once proud defense has slipped considerably. The Falcons have won 4 of their last 5 on the road where for some reason they have played so much better. They have been better on both sides of the ball on the road vs playing at home. The Falcons are in the playoff hunt and I like them to hang around in this one. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Jacksonville Jaguars finally fired Urban Meyer before he even completed one season. They basically had no choice as the negatives against him were becoming overwhelming. I believe the Jags get an emotional bump as so many players hated him, and I think the attitude will improve and the Jags play their best game of the year. Typically a team improves from the firing date of the head coach until the close of the season. Trevor Lawrence has struggled with pressure all season but the Texans get very little pressure. James Robinson could be in for a big day, as the Houston defense allows 4.7 yards per carry. Houston has been a much worse team with Davis Mills at QB. They are averaging fewer than 10ppg. The Jags were shutout last game but an NFL team coming off a shutout has been a 55.4% winner ATS over many years. Make the play on Jacksonville

It will be a Saturday Night in New England with snow falling. Fortunately for the Indianapolis Colts it won't matter as this game is at home under a dome. While the New England Patriots with 7 straight wins and covers under their belt are grabbing all the headlines, the Colts are a stealthy team that started 1-4 and have gone 6-2 over their last 8. RB Jonathon Taylor is having a breakout season with 1,348 rushing yards and 18 total TD's. Taylor has 10 runs of 20+ yards along with 5 more in the passing game. The Patriots have won games throwing 41 times as well as winning throwing the ball 3 times. The Colts have scored 30+ points in 7 of its last 8 games, and quietly have the 3rd best offense in the league, and the defense is top 5 as well in points allowed. The Patriots have looked impressive, so why is Indianapolis favored here? The reason is they are playing at home and have the tools to win this game. Carson Wentz has 22 TDs and just 5 INT's on the season. One question for New England, is Mac Jones healthy? Last week the weather called for the running game, but he has an injured finger, was that part of it? I think Indianapolis knows this is a huge statement game, and they deliver the win with an impressive performance. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Thursday Night NFL game has serious playoff implications. The Chiefs come in at 9-4, and the Chargers are 8-5. The Chargers offense has been in the driver's seat for most of the season, but at times it has been inconsistent. The big area of concern for the Chargers has been defense. The Charger defense has allowed 20 points or more in 9 straight games, and much more in many of them. The Chiefs have it rolling again, and Coach Andy Reid spent the bye week working on facing a cover-2 defense that they have seen and struggled against much of the season. They put up 48 vs Vegas last week. The Chiefs defense has been immense allowing just 65 total points in their last 6 games at 10.8ppg, and none of their last 3 opponents has topped 9. The Chiefs defense has on average generated 3 turnovers a game for the last 5 games, while the offense has tightened up their early season turnover problem. I like Kansas City in this one.

The Niners lost to Seattle last week 30-23. The good sign for this team is they have out-gained each of their last 4 opponents on the season. The defense has also started to force some turnovers over the 4 games as well with 9. QB Joe Burrow may have some issues as he is probable with a finger injury. Each of these teams has a very long injury report, but the impacts will be felt more by Cincinnati, and even more if Burrow is less than 100%. The Bengals have out-gained opponents by just 7 yards on the season, and San Francisco by 46. That margin is made more significant by the fact that San Francisco has played a much tougher schedule of opponents. This game also fits a situation on the Niners that has been 87-42 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Detroit Lions finally broke through for their first win of the season. The Lions were pounded early in the season but their last 4 games vs Minnesota, Cleveland, Chicago, and Pittsburgh have resulted in a 1-2-1 record and 4-0 ATS. The Lions in those games have been out-scored by just 3 total points. While offense has been mostly bad the defense has allowed 18ppg,right around where Denver averages. This line came out at +7.5 and now +10.5 is showing up. It has been bet into value for the dog, as many feel this will be a letdown spot for the Lions. When you go and play to an 0-9-1 record, and remain competitive, as they have I don't see a letdown I see a team that thinks they can compete and even win. Denver beat Dallas 30-16 after getting whipped by Philadelphia 30-13. Last week they managed 9 points vs the Chiefs. I don't see them rising up to the "A" game vs the lowly Lions and what looks to be a low scoring game, taking double-digits is pretty big. Make the play on Detroit.

Carolina is 5-7 on the season, and 3 games into the return of Cam Newton. While Newton seemed to give the Panthers a lift in his first game back, his numbers are really pretty poor. Newton has gone from a QB that delivered 7 yards per passing attempt in his career to 5.6, and has just 3 TD's and 2 INT's to this point, with a well below average QB rating. The Panther offense has gotten worse with each game. Christian McCaffrey has often been injured in his brief career, but he is now out for the season, and the weapons aren't there anymore. Atlanta is just 1-3 in its last 4 but the losses were to Tampa Bay, Dallas, and New England. Carolina isn't any of those teams. The Falcons also have revenge for a 19-13 loss to Carolina earlier this season. Make the play on Atlanta.

This has suddenly become a huge game for both teams. New England has transformed from a mediocre team into an elite one with the maturation of Mac Jones and overall better play on both sides of the ball. New England has won and covered 6 straight and in the NFL that is a difficult pace for any team to maintain. While they have not consistently shown it this year, The Bills have statistically dominated opponents. I really think the best of what this team has to offer, at home, on a Monday Night, is much more than the Pats have. A lot of what the Pats have done revolves around turnovers, which in the NFL, is highly random. New England has forced 19 turnovers in its last 7 games or almost 3 per contest which is unsustainable. Moreover, Buffalo has 11 turnovers in their last 4 games, almost 3 per contest. This is also unsustainable. Buffalo is +114 yards per game from the line of scrimmage, and +1.4 yards per play better than their opponents. The Pats +38 and +0.6. The Bills by far have been the better team at the line of scrimmage. Almost all positive and negative turnover situations favor the team that has been very negative and has been poor for the team that has been very positive, so that is not an asset for New England here, or a liability for Buffalo, it is the opposite. Make the play on Buffalo.

Time is running out on the Pittsburgh Steelers. This team has always been characterized by strong defense but the last 2 games saw them give up 41 points in each of them. You have to go back all the way to 1989 for the last time the Steelers defense gave up 40+ in 2 straight games. Everyone is saying what is wrong with Baltimore? That seems like a puzzling question regarding a team that is 8-3 and has the best record in the AFC. The Ravens are still out-gaining their opponents on the season, and just seem to have a nose for winning, even when they are not playing well. Pittsburgh is getting crushed at the line of scrimmage. Big Ben is passing for a career low of 6.6 yards per attempt, and it is starting to look like he is finished. I think the Ravens are going to come after him, and it likely won't be pretty. Make the play on Baltimore.

Don't look now but the Taylor Heinicke led Washington Football Team once 2-6 has won 3 straight games, and is back in the playoff picture. What has gone unnoticed is Washington has out-gained each of its last 5 opponents. Vegas finally got a much needed win last week after 3 straight losses. They out-lasted Dallas 36-33 on Thanksgiving. There is a gaping hole on defense however, as the Raiders have allowed 106 total points in their last 3 games. The offense at the same time has produced 16 or fewer points in 3 of its last 4. The Vegas offense is going to be challenged by a suddenly developing Washington defense. Vegas could also be caught looking ahead and take this NFC opponent lightly, especially after getting a win under their belt. Raiders have Kansas City next week, a big division rivalry game. Make the play on Washington.

There are now 9 teams in the AFC that have either 4 or 5 losses. A pair of those teams will take the field in Cincinnati, with the 7-4 Bengals hosting the 6-5 Chargers. The Bengals have suddenly become a running team carrying the ball 38 times in each of the last 2 weeks. They have success piling up 357 yards on the ground. They have won the 2 games by 50 points. That may be more predictive against them as for them. An NFL team that has won their last 2 games by a combined 50 points is 90-111-3 ATS in their next game covering just 44.8% of the time. The Chargers have not been able to put any kind of a winning streak together this season. Statistically they have out-played the Bengals on the season with a considerably stronger strength of schedule. There is an old saying in sports gambling that says, `The team in need, is the team indeed.` The Chargers can ill afford a loss, and they are the better team from the line of scrimmage with a favorable situations as well. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

I think Russell Wilson might have returned to the field too soon, but he should be getting healthy and he has a very favorable match up in this game. The Seahawks 13 total points scored in their last game has left them entirely under-valued. A match up against Taylor Heincke as a 1 point favorite is too hard to pass up. Pete Carroll Seattle teams off 2 straight losses are 15-2 ATS, and love the match up in this one. (6-0 ATS vs a team under .5000. Good opportunity in this one, which also has a Monday Night dog situation attched to it that is 48-17 ATS. Make the play on Seattle.

The Baltimore Ravens caught a lot of bettors off-guard last week when Lamar Jackson was a late scratch due to illness. He is listed as questionable as of right now, but I'm pretty sure he will play. The Ravens offense is simply on another level when they play at home. The last 2 seasons they have averaged just shy of 30ppg here. The Cleveland offense has had success running the ball, but it is a passing league, and the Browns offense has sputtered on multiple occasions generating 17 or fewer points in 6 of their last 8 games. They are going to have to do a lot better than that to stay in the game vs a Raven's team that has shown little problems scoring on anyone at home. Make the play on Baltimore.

It is never easy going into Green Bay in late November, or any time for that matter. The Rams have suddenly lost 2 straight games and have failed to cover their last 4. This all boils down to Matthew Stafford vs Aaron Rodgers. The fact is Rodgers is dealing with a toe injury that apparently got worse last week, but he will play. Stafford plain and simple is having a better year than Rodgers, and I trust the Rams defense a lot more than the defense of Green Bay which was exposed last week by Kirk Cousins. The Packers offense is producing 7.5 points less than a year ago, and the margin for error has slipped. The numbers say the Rams are the better team from the line of scrimmage. Make the play on the LA Rams.

There is a big log jam of potential playoff teams in the AFC. There are currently an amazing 9 teams that have either 4 or 5 losses. The Indianapolis Colts are one of them at 6-5. The Colts may not be as good as the 6-5 record as they are slightly negative from the line of scrimmage. Their 6 wins are games which saw them turn the opponent over 16 times, and in those games they have had a turnover margin of better than 2 per contest. The 6 wins have also come to teams that have a collective record of 22-40. Five of those teams have a combined record of 15-36. Tampa Bay is not one of them. The Colt losses have seen the opponent average 29ppg, and Tampa Bay is that team. Turnovers are in a large part random, and it would not be expected to see the Colts benefit from better than a 2 turnover advantage like they have. A team with a 2 or more turnover margin wins 87.2% of the time which is the reason the Colts are even 6-5. Tampa Bay is the better team and takes care of the ball a lot better than the 6 teams the Colts have beaten. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

Anyone that watched Atlanta lose 25-0 to New England last Thursday Night will have a hard time taking them this week. Looking back at the prior week vs Dallas, they managed just 3 points. That may be better stated by saying unless they are playing Jacksonville. The Jags have averaged just 10.8ppg in their last 4. I like Matt Ryan vs the rookie Trevor Lawrence who is suffering a lot of growing pains. Since the start of the 2015 season a team coming off a shutout has gone 24-7-2 ATS in their next game. I also think the Falcons have the match up edges here as well. Lawrence hasn't thrown a TD pass in 3 games. Make the play on Atlanta.

This game is interesting because Carolina and Miami are two of the most frequent blitzing defenses in the NFL. Miami started the season 1-7 but the Dolphins have come to life with 3 straight wins and covers and the defense has lead the way. The Dolphins are allowing 12ppg in their last 3, all wins. The Cam Newton hype came to an end when the Panthers lost to Washington as a favorite. Newton came off the bench 2 games back and scored a TD and screamed, "I'm back," Maybe that is not such a good thing as the Panthers are now 0-9 in Newtons last 9 starts. Make the play on Miami.

The New England Patriots have been the best team in the NFL over the last 5 weeks. The Pats are 5-0 winning by 25 points per game. Rookie QB Mac Jones has led the offense to 35 points per game. The Pats are playing at an unsustainable pace after an ugly 2-4 start to the season. Tennessee played their worst game of the season losing to Houston as a double-digit favorite, and teams off a double digit favorite loss in the NFL are 79-60-5 ATS in their next game. The Pats have won their last 2 by 25 points or more and NFL teams doing so are 28-47-1 ATS in their next game including 9-24 ATS vs a team better than .600. A closer look shows New England has beaten 7 teams with a combined record of 27-45. Make the play on Tennessee.

The Buffalo Bills are still the best team from the line of scrimmage in the NFL. The issue of late has been turnovers, which have cost the Bills dearly. Buffalo has turned the ball over 9 times in their last 3 games, and that doesn't last forever, it tends to even out. The Saints have been great as a dog under Sean Payton but that didn't work out last week in a 40-29 loss. The Saints have bigger issues as the injuries are mounting, and it looks like several key offensive players will be missing this week, or at best a few may be playing through some injuries. It is time for the Bills to show the nation how good they are, as they are statistically the best team and facing a Saints team with a lot of injuries coming off a short week, which will challenge their depth. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Dallas Cowboys are just a game behind the Arizona Cardinals for the top seed in the NFC. They know they need to win to keep pace. They should have a strong chance in this one. It is very difficult for a team to travel for a Thursday game after playing on Sunday. Thursday home favorites are 97-69-5 ATS covering 58.4% of all games. That goes to 50-30-2 ATS when they are favored by 6 or more points. Make the play on Dallas.

The Saints are suddenly just a game behind the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFC South. They have a great match up in this one vs the Eagles. The Eagles are the top running team in the NFL, but that plays into the hands of the New Orleans defense which ranks #2 in the NFL. The Saints have allowed the fewest points in the NFC (178). If the Saints succeed in turning the Philadelphia offense into a passing team it looks a lot different. Not many teams are having success on the ground so I expect Philly to have to throw more, and while the running game has kept the turnovers low, that might change here. Alvin Kamara from all reports looks like a go this week. Sean Payton has gotten remarkable results from his team as an under dog over the years, as his teams are 49-21-2 ATS as a dog and lately that is 13-1-1 ATS, and 4-0 ATS this season. His New Orleans team is also 28-9 ATS off a loss of 6 points or fewer, and 50-18 ATS vs a team that averages 24 or more points per game. Make the play on New Orleans.

The numbers say that Tua Tagovailoa should be the starting QB for Miami, he is only because of injury. His numbers are not great, but better than the other two. He may not achieve those numbers this week. The Jets have a pass rushing duo of John Franklin-Myers, and Quinen Williams who are both great at getting sacks and pressure, and each has a tremendous match up advantage this week. Joe Flacco is an upgrade at QB only from the sense he is careful with the ball, and should not turn it over much if any. The other Jet QB's already have thrown a ridiculous 17 INT's on the season. All the situations are on the Jets this week, including one that is 184-91 ATS that plays on bad ATS teams at this point of the season. Make the play on the NY Jets.

The San Francisco 49ers have had to deal with injuries, but are starting to get healthy. They are still in the playoff hunt as they head to Jacksonville to take on the Jags. The Niner offense is in much better hands when Jimmy Garoppolo is under center especially on the road as a favorite. Garoppolo is 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS as a road favorite for his career, with his team averaging 30.8ppg. Trevor Lawrence was considered a can't miss quarterback coming out of Clemson, but he has really struggled in his rookie year, throwing more INT's than TD's. Garoppolo has a 111 passer rating as a road chalk. The Niners need to win this game, and start feeling good, so at 4-5 this is not a letdown spot, but an "A" game spot, and the Niners "A" game is better than a TD over Jacksonville. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Buffalo Bills have played rather mediocre of late. They somehow couldn't score against Jacksonville, and lost 9-6. The good news is despite some head scratching things, this team is still statistically the best NFL team, and odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl based on the metrics. Indianapolis is 5-5 on the season, and they may not be even that good. The Colts are 5-0 vs 5 teams that have a combined record of 12-34, and 0-5 vs 5 opponents that are a combined 32-16. The Bills obviously fit on that 0-5 side of the Colt's season, and I think the Bills have a big advantage here. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Las Vegas Raiders have had some difficult personnel problems over the last week that has left this team in a rather poor emotional state, and overall weaker than they were prior to some really sad events. The Vegas offense has been highly inconsistent, and the defense has allowed 20+ points in 6 straight games, which has added pressure to the offense. The Raiders turned the ball over 3 times vs the Giants last week in a 23-16 loss, and are now just 2-3 in their last 5 games. The Chiefs are still struggling at 5-4 on the season, but the defense has really taken a step forward after several games allowing 30+ points, Kansas City has allowed just 16ppg over its last 4. The Chiefs have won their last 2 games despite combining for just 33 points in those games. Patrick Mahomes numbers are way down, but there is too much talent on the offensive side of the ball to be held down forever, and the improvement on defense keeps them in games, and the offense is going be be better going forward. Vegas has long struggled in toss-up type games, as they are 61-90 ATS since 1992 to a line of -3 to +3. They are also 28-48 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less over the same period. I like Kansas City in this one.

Cleveland and New England both come into this game at 5-4 so it has a lot of playoff implications. I like the fact that Cleveland has under-achieved their stats this year, and New England has over-achieved their stats. New England has won and covered 3 straight games, so they are getting a bump in the line. The Pats are pretty even from the line of scrimmage out-gaining opponents by just 6 yards per game. Compare that to the Browns who own the edge on both sides of the ball and have out-gained opponents by 70 yards per game, and 1.1 yards per play. That equates to a very live dog here. The Cleveland defense is finally getting results as they are allowing 15ppg over its last 3 contests. The Browns have out-gained 7 of its 9 opponents on the season. Overall the Browns are the better team from the line of scrimmage putting them in a good role as the market has moved this line towards New England, and I believe they are the better team at this point of the season. Make the play on Cleveland.

The Tennessee Titans are in short company right now. Last week they became just the 14th team in the NFL over the past 33 years to win 4 straight games as a dog. So when these teams change roles and become a favorite in their next game they have gone 1-7 ATS. Moreover, these teams have won just 2 times straight up. The NFL is a tough place to sustain such excellence. Has it really been excellence? The Titans have statistically been a poor team, despite 5 straight wins. Those 5 games has seen them out-gained 1,909-1,633. That doesn't say 5-0. They have enjoyed winning the turnover battle, as they have had 1 game where the turnovers were even and they were +6 in the other 4. It is rare for a team to be 7-2 and yet out-gained on the season by the 9 opponents. I'm making this game about the Titans who have taken advantage of good luck, but it has a way of turning around and burning them as well. They are off their biggest win of the season against the Rams, and Henry is out for the season, and this looks like the right spot to turn them away. Make the play on New Orleans.

Quite often we see a team put together a nice run in the NFL, but all that serves to accomplish is to electrify the bettors in their favor. The NFL has shown that when a team wins and covers 3 straight and are now facing a winning team they are 99-160-6 ATS if they are on the road. Basically there are a lot of red lights facing the Titans this week. The Rams certainly improved their defense adding Von Miller. Cooper Kupp should have aa big day against the Titan's secondary, and the Titans without Henry are going to be a lot more one-dimensional. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The Arizona Cardinals suffered their first loss of the season last week at the hands of the 7-1 Green Bay Packers. This has historically been a good spot for NFL teams as 7 or 8 win teams with just 1 loss are 56-40-1 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 3-4 and their season is on the line. They got back on track last week with an 11 point win vs Chicago. Kyler Murray has an injured ankle and his status is listed as questionable, so this is a risky play as the line has hedged against Murray playing. I like the value vs risk here and will make the play on Arizona.

The Cleveland Browns have to be disappointed in their 4-4 record on the season. They have greatly under-achieved their stats. Injuries have played a significant role in their fate, but at some point the stats they are putting up will get results. The Browns are out-gaining opponents by 77 yards a game, while Cincinnati is doing so by just 2 yards per game. Cincinnati played their worst game of the season against the hapless Jets last week in a 34-31 loss, despite a 2 turnover advantage. The Browns are running more plays a game than their opponents and Cincinnati fewer plays than their opponent so the overall differential is greater than it looks. Cleveland also applies to a 186-97 ATS situation. Make the play on Cleveland.

The Minnesota Vikings season is essentially on the line this week. The Vikings at 3-4 and playing in the top heavy NFC can not afford to go to 3-5 or their season is going to be getting away from them so I expect a major effort here. The Vikings have 4 losses by a combined 15 points, and have 0 losses by more than 1 possession. Baltimore is not looking like the same team they have in recent years. The hallmark defense is now in the bottom 1/3 in the league. The running game is still potent, but it has not generated nearly the type of games we have seen in the recent past. Injuries have compromised this team and the Ravens are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite this season. I think Cousins will have a lot of success going against a secondary that allowed over 400 passing yards to Vegas, and Cincinnati this season, as well as 390 to Indianapolis. The back door is wide open here, and don't be surprised if the Vikings come away with a straight up win. Make the play on Baltimore.

The New Orleans Saints are 4-2 but they really don't have the look of a 4-2 team. They have losses to the Giant's and Panthers, and their offense has been really awful to this point. They will not be running on Tampa Bay in this game and that means Jameis Winston has to put the ball in the air a lot for offensive success. The Buc's are allowing fewer than 15ppg in its last 4 contests. Tampa Bay has forced 14 turnovers in 7 games and Winston is a turnover machine. Brady is 54-33 ATS as a favorite in his last 87 games. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

When you look at the records of these teams and see the Chargers at 4-2 and the Patriots at 3-4, and throw in the perception of these teams and the line appears to be on the mark. However, when you look at the stats these teams are pretty much a dead heat. Even the QB match up appears to favor the Chargers but both teams are averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Patriots do not get beaten badly too often. This year they have one loss by more than 6 points. Mac Jones has a 93 passer rating and is getting better by the week. Justin Hebert has been solid and had a great rookie season a year ago but the Chargers are just 10-11 in his 21 starts an indication that the rest of the pieces are not in place. Make the play on New England.

The Cleveland Browns have statistically been a better team than what you have seen in the win column. They have dealt with a considerable amount of injuries, but will be glad to have Baker Mayfield, who should be joined by Nick Chubb, as well as RT Jack Conklin. The Browns have a healthy offensive line, and Pittsburgh has one of the worst run stop units in the league, and I expect the Brown's run at will in this game. The Browns strong pass defense may be attacked underneath by Big Ben who has been forced to get rid of the ball quickly, and has the fastest release time in the league t 2.3 seconds. I think this is a highly favorable match up for the Browns, and I will make the play on Cleveland.

The Atlanta Falcons are suddenly 3-3 on the season, but a closer look shows that they have beaten 3 teams that combine to have a record of 4-16 on the season. Matt Ryan is starting to show age and a bad offensive line. His 3 year average yards per pass attempt is 7.5. His yards per attempt last year was 7.3 which has eroded to a pedestrian 6.8 this year despite playing a very weak schedule. The Falcons have been out-gained by Philadelphia, Washington, the Giants, and Miami. Carolina has dropped 4 straight games where they have been a total of -6 in turnovers. Opponents have out-gained Atlanta on the season, and the opponents they have faced are certainly not very potent. I like Carolina in this one.

The Detroit Lions are off to an 0-6 start to the season. These teams essentially traded QBs and Matthew Stafford has the Rams at 5-1. Jared Goff has struggled in Detroit where injuries have decimated WRs. I would suspect that the Rams will borrow from last week's playbook when they faced a similar Giants team lacking healthy WRs. They blitzed the Giants on about 30% of all plays. The Rams Aaron Donold should be in the backfield all afternoon, as the Lions have no one to block him. Cooper Kupp has a great match up as well and I would expect him to have another big game. Stafford's numbers are off the charts good so far and he should be highly effective this week. Another long after noon for the Lions is in store here, and for the many that don't like to lay huge points, since the start of the 2014 season a team favored by 14.5 or more points has gone 21-9 ATS. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The New England Patriots have lost 4 straight games at home. They certainly won't be taking the Jets lightly, as they are in dire need of a win. It is rare for a rookie QB to beat a Bill Belichick team as he owns a 23-6 SU record against them. The Jets are averaging just 13.4 points per game and an even worse 7 points per game on the road. Zach Wilson has yet to figure things out and has thrown 9 INTs already through 5 games. He has a passer rating of 62.9. The Pats have lost games by 2 points, 3 points, and in overtime, so with just a little luck they could have a winning record. The Jets are being out-gained by 107 yards per game. The Pats have beaten the Jets 12 straight times. New England is 49-23 ATS in their last 72 games after allowing 30 or more points. Make the play on New England.

The Tennessee Titans got a big win over the Buffalo Bills at home on Monday Night. They spent a lot of mental,physical, and emotional energy in that game. They had a big run by Henry for a 75 yard TD, but other than that they were limited to 287 total yards, while yielding 417. Ryan Tannehill is having a tough season. He has just 6 TD passes, after throwing 32 a year ago, and the offense is relying on Henry far to much. They hav 26 players on the injury report, of which 18 are on the IR. That is hard to overcome especially off a big emotional win and a short week. Kansas City is just 3-3 and a lot of that points at all the turnovers. The Chiefs have turned the ball over 14 times, and Mahomes has thrown 8 picks already after throwing just 8 all of last year. He has been too good and this is just variance, and I would expect going forward he will clean those up. Despite all that the Chiefs are scoring more at 31.2 points per game, despite the fewer possessions and Mahomes is completing 69% of his passes a career high, so there is evidence the interceptions will calm down and when they do the Chiefs are going on a run. It begins in Tennessee. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Green Bay Packers are 5-1 on the season, and that one loss has influenced the stats in a very hidden way. The Packers played a stinker in their opener vs the Saints which resulted in a 38-3 loss. The Packers turned the ball over 3 times, and did nothing on both sides of the ball. Since then they are averaging 28.2ppg and allowing 16.6ppg or winning by an average margin of 11.5ppg. The defense is allowing just 314 yards per game, and the offense has seen a worst performance of 323 yards. The Packers have turned the ball over just 2 times in the 5 wins. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke is 3-11 ATS in all games, and enters with a passer rating of 82.1. He has already thrown 6 INT's. The Packers are in their wheel house when playing at home where Aaron Rodgers is 25-3 SU and 19-9 ATS including 21-9 ATS as a home favorite of -5.5 to -12.5. He has 75 TD passes in those games to just 5 INT's. Washington has allowed 34.3ppg in their last 3 and will have trouble staying in this game. Make the play on Green Bay.

The Arizona Cardinals are the only unbeaten team in the NFL at 5-0. Everything has gone well for the Cardinals to this point.The Cleveland Browns are 3-2 and most will see the 2 big offenses they played destroyed their defense. The fact is they out-gained both those teams, and gave up late leads or they could also be looking at 5-0. The Browns are out-gaining their opponents by 119 yards per game and have a lethal running game. That running game is going to matter this week as game time winds are projected to gust upward of 20 MPH. That is going to have some impact on the passing game here, and the Browns have an advantage in this type of game. The Brown's have the better team from the line of scrimmage and have gone for 150+ yards on the ground in every game, and in a situation where the ground game matters more than usual, and the fact that the Browns are off a loss, and playing an unbeaten team at home, the best of what they have to offer will be on display here. Make the play on Cleveland, my game of the month.

The Green Bay Packers season has been somewhat strange. They were dominated by New Orleans in week 1, but have since gone out and won 4 straight. The Packers have been out-scored on the season by their opponents, and overall they are just an average team from the line of scrimmage. They are ultra dependent on Davonte Adams who generated over 60% of the receiving yards last week vs the Bengals as well as 50% of the first downs. The Bears offense has been quite challenging, but they may be catching Green By at the right time. The Packers are off a road overtime win in Cincinnati, and take to the road again. The Packers are pretty banged up defensively, and they can't rely on Davonte Adams for everything they do offensively especially against a strong Bear defense. Too many points, make the play on Chicago.

The Cincinnati Bengals missed so many opportunities to beat the Green Bay Packers last week and move to 4-1. They head to Detroit off that loss and should have their focus on after a tough loss. The Lions are 0-5 on the season and should be. The Lion's scoring margin is -8 points per game on the season. Joe Burrow is making a jump in Cincinnati as he is completing 71.7% of his passes at 8.8 yards per attempt. The Lions are having injury issues at WR and it will hamper an already poor Lion's offense. I think the match up here for Cincinnati is quite favorable, and I also believe we have some line value here. Make the play on Cincinnati.

Back to London we go as the Miami Dolphins take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. It looks like a free play for the Dolphins as the Jag's are now 0-5 on the season, as well as 1-20 since the start of last season. Those numbers are certainly influencing the line here. The Jags however are the better team from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. There is a penalty being paid here for taking Mimi, as who wants a 1-20 team getting just a FG? This line is considerably off and I actually think it should be Jacksonville -3 here. I'm taking Jacksonville in this one.

The winner of this game will move to 4-1 on the season, so it is certainly a big game for both teams. The Chargers flexed their muscles Monday Night and dominated Las Vegas on both sides of the line of scrimmage in an easy 28-14 win. There are still concerns here. The Chargers took one gift wrapped from the Chiefs 30-24. The Chiefs turned the ball over 4 times but still managed 437 yards, and lost by just 6. Dallas went over 400 yards as well, and Cleveland has a lot of offensive weapons. The Browns have improved greatly on defense and has held its last 2 opponents to 6 and 7 points. It has enabled them to just pound the rock. The Chargers may be 3-1 but they are losing the line of scrimmage and the Cleveland running game will take charge of a run-stop unit that is among the worst in the league. The records are the same, but Cleveland is considerably better, and has the match up edges.Make the play on Cleveland.

The Tennessee Titans are 2-2 and that is pretty much where they belong. The same can be said for Jacksonville at 0-4 off a 1-15 season a year ago. Trevor Lawrence has not been good, in fact he has been awful. He enters with 5 TDs and 7 INTs. That equates to a passer rating of 66.1. His 6.1 passing yards per attempt is really poor. While the offense has been awful, the pass defense has been horrific allowing 9.4 yards per attempt. This is where Ryan Tannehill comes into play. Tannehill has not been the same this season, and this might be just what the doctor ordered. He is certainly capable and playing the worst secondary in the NFL might just get him back on track. Jacksonville has given up at least 23 points every game and has averaged just 18.5. Make the play on Tennessee.

Jalen Hurts makes a difference in the Philadelphia offense. His ability to scramble since he took over duties as the Eagles starting QB in week 14 last year shows him ranked 11th in rushing yards in the league. Hurts has a penchant for throwing screen passes, and with Shaq Thompson out for the Panthers, there should be a lot of success to be had in exploiting that area. Sam Darnold has played well this season for Carolina, but the Eagles pass defense, and ability to get pressure, is likely going to make Darnold's numbers look more like they did with the Jets, and success will be at a premium.With RB Christian McCaffrey dealing with a hamstring issue, I expect that if he plays he won't be as effective as usual.  This is typically not a good situation for any team as 3-1 teams that lost their first game of the season in their last game cover just 38.5% of the time in their next game. Also, any team surrendering 40 or more points in 2 straight weeks have gone 17-7 ATS when facing a winning team. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Seattle Seahawks had lost 2 straight before a much needed win this past Sunday against a banged up San Francisco, that played with a back up rookie QB the entire second half. It saved the Seattle season, but just for the moment. Now they will face an angry Rams team that was destroyed at home by Arizona. QB Matthew Stafford has found a home in LA as he has thrown for 11 TDs to just 2 INTs. He is also averaging an elite 9.1 yards per attempt. Seattle however hs a lot of problems. They have lost the battle at the line of scrimmage 3 straight weeks. Seattle has been out-gained by 422 total yards in its last 3 games, or 141 yards per game. The once proud and strong defense is now among the worst in the league vs the run and pass. There ae too many weapons and big play makers on both sides of the ball for the Rams her. Make the play on LA.

The slow start by the Kansas City Chiefs has these teams looking to take advantage. Vegas has opened 3-0 and Derek Carr has made a difference. Carr is throwing for over 400 yards a game and an elite 8.8 yards per pass attempt. The Chargers are off a huge win in Kansas City last week, and they may have trouble bringing the energy to take on an up and coming confident team in Vegas. The Chargers however were out-played by Kansas City, and lost at the line of scrimmage 437-352. The Chiefs uncharacteristically turned the ball over 4 times. Justin Hebert continues to play well but the Chargers are generating just 6 yards per play to a schedule of teams allowing 6.7. I think these teams are pretty close, but what Carr has done for the Vegas offense is making a big difference. Make the play on Vegas.