I’m playing on the Atlanta Falcons as my 10* Super Play Monday. The Falcons are finding their form just in time for a postseason push, and ride that momentum to Lambeau Field for a Monday Night Football showdown with the Green Bay Packers.

Atlanta has won three of its last four contests, including a big statement win over the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday, pushing the Falcons back to the top of the NFC South. They put up 29 points on 500 yards against the top defense in the NFL and have enough fire power to match the Packers’ potent passing attack.

The deep ball is quickly becoming a major weapon for Atlanta, especially with receivers like Julio Jones and Roddy White burning up the turf. The Falcons scorched the Cardinals secondary with long passes last Sunday and face a less-than-intimidating Green Bay unit, which has allowed 366.8 yards per game – 25th in the NFL.

A good chunk of those yards allowed have come on the ground, where Green Bay’s opponents are marching for more than 132 yards an outing. That number could be a lot worse if not for the offense’s production putting opponents behind on the scoreboard and forcing them to abandon the run.

Atlanta is coming off its best rushing performance of the season, rumbling for 142 yards on 34 carries against Arizona. That allowed the Falcons to dominate the clock, holding on to the ball for more than 37 minutes. They have the ability to control the pace of this game, especially if the deep pass connects and opens up room for the runners.

The Packers run the risk of suffering a letdown in Week 14, coming off a huge win against the New England Patriots – a game many said was a Super Bowl preview. Green Bay has been the best first-half team in the NFL, but if they come out flat Monday, this spread is far too large to make up ground against the Falcons, who are also among the best first-half scoring teams in the league.

The Falcons’ momentum and the Packers’ letdown potential is why I’m playing on Atlanta as my 10* Super Play Monday.

I’m playing on the San Diego Chargers as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Bolts host the New England Patriots Sunday night, hoping to catch Tom Brady & Co. in a tough spot. New England, off a loss to Green Bay, travels across the country for this primetime game.

San Diego is quietly staying in the postseason hunt, bringing a three-game winning streak into Week 14. The Chargers edged Baltimore on the road last Sunday and have lost just once inside Qualcomm Stadium this season, going 3-3 ATS in those games.

The Bolts have the firepower to match the Patriots, putting up 24.7 points on 383.3 yards per game during that winning streak. And with the calendar turning to December, San Diego backers can only expect those numbers to go up. Quarterback Philip Rivers is one the best passers in the final month of the schedule, boasting a 30-6 career record in December.

Rivers will have the Patriots secondary on its heels with his various deep-ball threats. That should open up the underneath routes for TE Antonio Gates as well as make running room for RB Ryan Mathews, who is starting to return to form after missing most of the season with injury. The Packers were able to keep New England guessing with a balanced playbook and dominated time of possession, owning the football for 36:35. San Diego has the tools to do so Sunday.

A hot Chargers team with enough offensive pop to match the Patriots is why I’m playing on San Diego as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Philadelphia Eagles as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a huge divisional win on Thanksgiving and host the defending Super Bowl champs, crossing the country for a showdown between a high-powered offense and a hard-nosed defense in Week 14.

Philadelphia is finally finding its footing in the ground game after struggling to pick up rushing yards all season. The Eagles dominated the Cowboys with 256 yards on the ground on Thanksgiving and have averaged 176.3 rushing yards over the last three games – tops in the NFL in that span. Running back LeSean McCoy is making his fantasy owners happy, putting up 377 total yards rushing in that three game span – that’s 37 percent of his total yards on the season.

The improvements on the ground can’t come at a better time for QB Mark Sanchez, who is right at home in Chip Kelly’s system. Since taking over the No. 1 spot following an injury to Nick Foles, Sanchez has thrown for 1,404 yards. He played perhaps his best game against Dallas last Thursday, mainly because he didn’t turn the ball over.

Hidden behind the headline the offense gets is a dominating Eagles defense. Outside of a blowout loss to Green Bay, Philadelphia has allowed an average of just under 17 points per game since shutting out the Giants back in Week 6.

The pass rush was the most impressive part of Thanksgiving’s win, putting Cowboys QB Tony Romo on his heels on nearly every snap and scoring four sacks against the top offensive line in the NFL. We've seen Seattle QB Russell Wilson struggle when his line breaks down, and Philadelphia will be able to move Wilson around and close in on him with its tremendous speed on defense.

Everything is hitting its stride for the Eagles just in time to host the defending Super Bowl champs, which is why I’m playing on Philadelphia as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the Jacksonville Jaguars as my 10* Divisional Best of the Best Sunday. Jacksonville is in a rare spot, bringing momentum into Sunday’s action after defeating the Giants last week. The Jaguars try to keep it rolling against the Houston Texans, who have split wins and losses in their last six games.

Jacksonville seems primed for another late-season surge after being stuck in the NFL basement all season. The Jaguars showed signs of life at this time last year, winning three straight games – two of which came against the Texans.

Houston could get caught looking ahead to another divisional road game in Indianapolis next week and has had a hard time staying consistent this season. The Texans are a dismal 2-9 ATS when coming off a victory and have covered in just three of their previous 10 games against AFC South rivals.

The Jaguars defense has logged more minute than all but two teams in the NFL, skewing their results. The Jacksonville stop unit is very aggressive, with 37 sacks heading into Week 14, and put Giants QB Eli Manning on his back four times last Sunday. The Jags will throw the kitchen sink at Houston QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will be hard pressed to repeat his six-touchdown performance from Week 13 – even against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars' hunger for more wins and the Texans looking ahead to the Colts is why I’m playing on Jacksonville as my 10* Divisional Best of the Best Sunday.

I’m playing on the New York Jets as my 10* Best Bet Monday. The Jets are back home in the Meadowlands after a bad loss to Buffalo last Monday, hosting a Miami Dolphins team playing its third road game in the past four weeks for another Monday Night primetime matchup.

The Jets hand the ball back to second-year QB Geno Smith in Week 13, after benching him for veteran passer Mike Vick four weeks ago. Smith came in against the Bills last week, completing 10 of 12 passes for 89 yards and boasted a 97.6 QB rating – his highest mark of the season.

He was terrific against Miami last season, passing for 190 yards and adding on another 44 yards and a touchdown on the ground in the regular season finale. Smith has the ability to break off big gains with his legs but often seems hesitant to do so. Knowing that the job is his until the end of the season, we expect a much more confident and comfortable Smith under center.

Miami has a solid pass defense but has shown a weakness to the run. The Dolphins allowed Denver RB C.J. Anderson have a monster day last weekend, rushing for 167 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos tallied 201 total rushing yards in that win.

The Jets have a potent ground game behind Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson, who have helped lift New York to fifth in the league in run yards per outing - 136.4 per game. They can control the ball, keep the pass rush at bay, and wear down the Fins stop unit with a smash-mouth playbook, mixing in playaction passes and some scrambles from Smith.

The Jets' offense playing loose at home against a road weary Dolphins team is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Best Bet Monday night.

I’m playing on the Green Bay Packers as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. We get a possible Super Bowl preview when the Packers host the New England Patriots at Lambeau Field in Week 13. The Cheeseheads are dominant at home and will look to flex their muscle for the Green Bay faithful Sunday.

New England has defeated a who’s-who of star NFL quarterbacks in recent weeks, knocking off Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford. However, no player is even close to performing on the same level as Aaron Rodgers right now – especially Rodgers on his own turf. Rodgers has a 138.1 QB rating inside Lambeau and has connected for 18 of his 30 touchdowns at home.

To complement Rodgers’ prowess through the air, RB Eddie Lacy is starting to pick up steam and is coming off a monster day versus Minnesota last Sunday. The bulldozing back rushed for 125 yards and a touchdowns, his first 100-yard effort in six games. Lacy will be key to controlling the pace of the game and keeping the Patriots defense honest.

New England hasn’t met a dominant rushing attack since a close call against the Jets back in mid-October. New York RB Chris Ivory, who has a similar running style as Lacy, rumbled for 107 yards and a touchdown and allowed the Jets to dominate the ball with 40:54 time of possession. In their last loss, to Kansas City on Monday Night Football in Week 4, the Pats were bullied for 207 yards on the ground and the Chiefs used up 36:27 of clock.

Green Bay will come out strong, looking to put New England on its heels. The Packers are tops in the league in first-quarter scoring, averaging 10.4 points in the first 15 minutes. New England hasn’t had to play from behind often this season and could find itself out of that comfort zone quickly Sunday.

I’m playing on the Atlanta Falcons as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Falcons are home to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13 trying to stay atop the NFC South. Arizona finds itself outgunned on the road against a desperate team.

The Falcons won back-to-back games before being upended by the Cleveland Browns last weekend. Atlanta is first in the division despite a lousy record but has the offensive explosiveness to compete each week. The Falcons have a dominant passing game, ranked seventh in the NFL with 269.5 yards through the air per outing.

Atlanta will be tested against a blitz-happy Arizona defense, which thrives on pressuring the passer. However, the Falcons offensive line does a good job keeping quarterback Matt Ryan clean. Atlanta has allowed just 23 totals sacks all season and Ryan has only thrown nine interceptions.

If the Falcons can weather the storm on offense, they will be able to outgun a Cardinals attack that has mustered only 17 points in the past two weeks. With backup QB Drew Stanton under center and some missing pieces in the passing game, Arizona has totaled just 455 yards passing with two touchdowns and three interceptions in the last two contests.

The Falcons defense is at the bottom of the barrel in terms of yards allowed but this stop unit has also made big plays, with 12 interceptions on the year. Atlanta had three picks against the Browns last Sunday and two against the Panthers the week before.

A Falcons offense with plenty of pop and a defense that can take advantage of the Cardinals' QB troubles is why I’m playing on Atlanta as a 10* Best Bet.

I’m playing on the San Francisco 49ers as my 10* Game of the Week Thursday. The Niners are hitting their stride at the right time and welcome the rival Seattle Seahawks to Levis Stadium for what is the biggest game of the year for San Francisco and its new digs on Thanksgiving Day.

San Francisco brings momentum into this NFC West war, winning three in a row after taking care of the Washington Redskins last week. The 49ers defense is beginning to round into form with the return of Aldon Smith anchoring the linebacking corps.

The Niners have allowed an average of just 15.7 points over their last three, putting the clamps down on opposing passers in that span. San Francisco is limiting opponents to 209.7 yards through the air during that winning streak, posting nine sacks and seven interceptions in those games.

Seattle has four wins in its last five, suffering that lone loss to Kansas City two weeks ago, but those victories have come against lesser opponents. The Seahawks took down Carolina, New York and Oakland – who have a combined record of 7-25-1 – and then beat up Arizona, which was without its starting QB and top WR.

The Seattle offense will lean a lot on RB Marshawn Lynch Thursday but with a short week and an ailing back, the burden may be too much for Lynch to handle. He rushed for only 39 yards on 15 carries versus the Cardinals and was held out of the end zone for the second straight week. San Francisco’s defense is allowing only 92.9 yards on the ground per game.

A peaking Niners squad at home and a Seahawks team fat off of cupcake opponents is why I’m playing on San Francisco as my 10* Game of the Week Thursday.

I’m playing on the New Orleans Saints as my 10* Monday Main Event. The Saints have dropped back-to-back games inside the Superdome – an almost unheard of feat in recent seasons. New Orleans is out to stay in the division hunt in the log-jammed NFC South and host a Ravens team struggling away from Baltimore.

This Monday Night Football showdown is setting up nicely for the Saints, who play their best football at home on the primetime stage. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday nighters and has outscored opponents 160-70 in its last four home Monday night games – an average difference of 22.5 points per game.

Baltimore has lost two straight road games – at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati – and is 1-3 SU away from home in its last four outside of Maryland. The Ravens defense is allowing 379.4 yards per road game – compared to just 292 yards against at home – with those gains translating into 25.6 points against – compared to only 10.6 at home.

On offense, Ravens QB Joe Flacco has faded in the second half of the schedule. He’s completed under 60 percent of his passes and has a touchdown-to-interception count of 5-5 in the last four games. Flacco has been flustered by blitz packages and will see plenty of bodies coming after him with Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan unleashing his dogs Monday night.

A desperate Saints squad that shines on the MNF stage and a rough road record for the Ravens is why I’m playing on New Orleans as my 10* Monday Main Event.

I’m playing on the New York Jets as a 10* Monday. It’s been a rough week for the Buffalo Bills, who lose their home-field edge thanks to a massive snow storm that pushed this AFC East showdown from Sunday to Monday in Detroit.

The weather issues in Western New York took the focus off football for the Bills, who were left up in the air about practice and game schedule until the middle of the week. Instead of having a decisive home-field advantage with the winter weather in Week 12, Buffalo is on a neutral field when it faces the Jets, who have had two weeks to prepare for this game after enjoying a bye in Week 11.

New York’s ground game will love the fast track inside Ford Field, giving solid footing to a rushing game that ranks fourth in the NFL – averaging 140.8 yards per game. New York rumbled for 150 yards in their stunning win over Pittsburgh two weeks ago, handing the ball off 36 times. The Bills gave up 125 yards on 24 carries in their loss to Miami – an average of 5.2 yards per run.

Buffalo was able to put up big passing numbers against the Jets defense in Week 8, with Kyle Orton connecting for four touchdowns. New York is eager to get a second shot at Orton, who has regressed in recent outings. He’s completed just over 58 percent of his passes and has only one touchdown in his last two games – both of them losses.

Buffalo’s bad week and the Jets rushing game enjoying a clean neutral site is why I’m playing on the New York Jets as a 10* Monday.

I’m playing on the New York Giants as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. New York is coming off a miserable showing against San Francisco, but despite Eli Manning’s five interceptions the G-Men actually had a chance to win the game in the dying minutes of the fourth quarter. The Giants stay home for this Sunday Night showdown with the Dallas Cowboys, and would love to throw a wrench in Big D’s playoff plans.

New York gave Dallas a good fight in their first meeting, never letting the Cowboys feel comfortable in that Week 7 clash in Arlington. The Giants have a decisive home edge versus Dallas Sunday night, with rain in the forecast making for some slick field conditions and temperatures dipping into the low 40s. The Cowboys have shown in the past that they’re not used to playing in the elements.

The Giants also catch the Cowboys looking ahead to next Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles. That matinee meeting will go a long way in deciding the division. Dallas has a short week to prepare for that matchup, so focus could be split between Sunday night and what lies ahead on Turkey Day.

New York’s defense did a good job limiting San Francisco’s passing game in Week 11. Colin Kaepernick completed just 15 of 29 passes for 193 yards, and the Niners converted on third down just six of 14 times. The Giants are in the top half of the league in third down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 39.53 percent of third down tries. That should stump the Dallas offense, which is among the best in the NFL at keep the chains moving, boasting a third down conversion percentage of 50.77.

A tough road spot for the Cowboys and a Giants defense looking to build off a underrated performance is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Seattle Seahawks as my 10* Best of the Best Sunday. The defending Super Bowl champs don’t have time to lick their wounds after losing to the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday. That’s a good thing for Seattle backers, as this team is chomping at the bit to get back on the field and prove they’re still top dog in the NFC against the conference-leading Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals offense showed just how lifeless it can be without Carson Palmer at the wheel. Arizona managed just 14 points against the Detroit Lions last week, scoring two first-quarter touchdowns and then proceeding to get shutout in the final 45 minutes. Backup Drew Stanton’s wheels wobbled late in the game with two interceptions. Seattle will focus on getting more pressure on the untested Stanton at home Sunday.

Speaking of home, the Seahawks will have the 12th Man amped for this NFC West clash. The home team has covered in 11 of the past 15 meetings between these rivals and the forecast in CenturyLink Field is calling for classic Seattle weather, rain and cold, which should make the Cardinals very uncomfortable.

The Seahawks have the ground game to wear down Arizona’s defense over the course of four quarters. Marshawn Lynch rolled over the Chiefs' stout stop unit for 124 yards but couldn’t crack the end zone, putting a damper on what could have been another huge day from Beast Mode. Lynch had 91 yards and a touchdown versus the Cardinals at home last season.

A motivated Seahawks side at home and a backup QB facing the dreaded 12th Man is why I’m playing on Seattle as my 10* Best of the Best Sunday.

10* Analysis to come before 7AM on game day

I’m playing on the Indianapolis Colts as a 10* Sunday Night Football Main Event. Indianapolis can get some revenge on the New England Patriots at home in this marquee matchup Sunday night and also stake its claim as the team to beat in the AFC.

The Colts bowed out of the playoff last season, losing 43-22 to the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in the AFC Divisional Round this past January. Indianapolis hasn’t forgotten that loss and will be looking at Sunday as a true test of where it stands in the conference picture.

Andrew Luck hasn’t had much success against the Patriots in the past, especially when it comes to limiting his turnovers. However, both head-to-head meetings came in New England. This time around, Luck is peaking and playing inside the comfortable domed confines of Lucas Oil Stadium.

Both of these offense are going to try and chew up as much time off the clock in order to freeze out the other. And while both have the potential to dominate time of possession, the Colts have a much better running game than the Patriots do at this point. Ahmad Bradshaw is a threat to run or catch for gains and Trent Richardson can punishing opposing tacklers with his smash-mouth style of running.

A revenge-fueled Colts side dominating the football with plenty of weapons is why I’m playing on Indianapolis as a 10* Sunday Night Football Main Event.

I’m playing the St. Louis Rams as my 9* Breakfast Club Sunday. The Rams have shown a tendency to play up to their competition, hanging with the NFL’s elite in those tough games. St. Louis faces just that in Week 11, playing a Denver Broncos club taking to the road for the third straight week.

The Rams had the Arizona Cardinals on their heels last week, jumping out to a 14-10 lead before succumbing to the Cardinals defense and losing a lopsided game. However, that fight is nothing new for St. Louis, which has taken wins over NFC powers San Francisco and the defending champion Seattle Seahawks in recent weeks.

The Broncos come to St. Louis weary from the road. This will be their third straight away game, after losing at New England on Sunday night three weeks ago and rolling Oakland in the Bay Area last Sunday. Denver hasn’t been that sharp away from Mile High, suffering their two losses on the road.

The Broncos are putting up 28.2 points per road game – nearly a touchdown less than at home – and QB Peyton Manning is completing 64.5 percent of his passes in enemy territory, compared to 71.2 percent inside Sports Authority Field. Five of his seven total interceptions have come on the road as well.

He’ll go up against a Rams pass rush that has unleashed hell in the last four games after a very slow start to the year. St. Louis has 16 sacks in that span, including an eight-sack effort in the win over the 49ers three weeks ago. Pro Bowl DE Robert Quinn was held without a sack through the first five games but has erupted for six sacks in the last four contests.

A hard-nosed Rams team ramping up the pass rush versus a road-weary Broncos side is why I’m playing on St. Louis as my 9* Breakfast Club Sunday.

I’m playing on the New York Giants as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Giants are back home hosting a San Francisco 49ers team bound for a letdown after pulling off a come-from-behind overtime victory in New Orleans last week. On top of that, the Niners have to cross the country for this early 1 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday.

The 49ers needed some magic and help from the officials in their much-needed win over the Saints. San Francisco’s offense sputtered again late in the game, managing only three points in the second half versus New Orleans. On the year, the Niners are averaging only 6.2 points in the final two quarters – last in the NFL – including just 2.9 points per fourth quarter.

This will be San Francisco’s second straight road game, a situation that cost them a head-turning loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 7. The Niners not only deal with that schedule spot but also an early start time on the East Coast. This 1 p.m. ET kickoff is at 10 a.m. back in the Bay Area against a Giants team that has won five of the last six encounters with San Francisco, including the last two meetings in East Rutherford.

New York has its back against a wall after a loss in Seattle last week. The Giants have dropped four straight games but three of those have come away from MetLife Stadium. The G-Men are happy to be home, where they average more than five points more per game and QB Eli Manning has passed for 793 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three home stands.

A sputtering Niners offense making a cross-country trip to face a home-happy Giants squad is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Chicago Bears as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. Chicago is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Packers on Sunday Night Football and desperately needs a win. Enter the Minnesota Vikings, who have struggled in recent trips to Soldier Field.

The Bears have been backed into a corner after Sunday’s beatdown at the hands of the rival Packers. They’ve lost three straight and five of their last six going back to Week 4. This Chicago team was supposed to compete for the NFC title and its running out of time to make a run at the wild card.

The Bears’ biggest problem has been their slow starts, digging an early hole that they’re unable to claw out of. After Sunday’s loss, in which Chicago allowed 42 first-half points to the Packers, the Bears have been outscored 94-7 through the first two quarters during their current three-game slide.

Luckily, for Chicago, the Vikings have been ice cold in the opening quarters, averaging just 8.1 points per first half this season. Minnesota has been slow out of the blocks even in their last two games – both wins – scoring a combined 10 points in the first halves of those outings. Overall, the Vikings offense ranks 26th in the NFL - 18.7 points per game.

Minnesota has lost five in a row in the Windy City, going back to 2009, and has managed to cover in only one of those trips. Mother Nature could be playing into those woes for the Vikings, with the forecast calling for cold and a chance of snow in Chicago Sunday.

A desperate Bears team at home taking on a slow-starting Vikings side is why I’m playing on Chicago as my 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Carolina Panthers as my 10* MNF Main Event Monday. The Panthers are hungry for a win after going without a victory since early October. They clash with a Philadelphia Eagles team putting a backup QB under center against one of the NFL’s toughest defenses.

Mark Sanchez is the man in the City of Brotherly Love, whether Eagles faithful like it or not. An injury to starter Nick Foles has the former Jets QB in the spotlight. Sanchez looked brilliant at moments in relief of Foles last weekend but was picked off twice in the win over Houston.

This Chip Kelly offense is all about timing, something Sanchez and his first-team targets haven’t worked on much. Add to that poor chemistry and Carolina team that will bring pressure to put Sanchez on his heels.

The Panthers have gone up against three top teams – Green Bay, Seattle and New Orleans – the last three weeks, facing three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in three straight losses. Carolina actually did a good job against New Orleans QB Drew Brees and takes a major step down versus Sanchez.

The Panthers have the patience and ground game to slow down the Eagles’ up-tempo attack. This rushing attack has been limited in recent games with Carolina playing from behind and forced to abandon the run at times. However, the Panthers combo of RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is finally healthy and, along with Cam Newton’s ability to scramble, should allow them to chew up the turf – and clock – icing Philadelphia’s offense on the sideline.

The Eagles’ QB issues and a Panthers team hungry for a win is why I’m playing on Carolina as my 10* MNF Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the Buffalo Bills as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. Buffalo is coming off the bye week and hosts a streaking Kansas City Chiefs team that could get caught looking ahead to next week’s date with the defending Super Bowl champs.

The Bills took back-to-back wins into the bye and roll into this game at 5-3 SU, smack in the middle of the postseason wild card hunt in the AFC. Buffalo QB Kyle Orton, who took over as the starter four games ago, has had the extra week to work with his receivers and that should add some punch to this offense, which is trying to overcome injuries to the rushing corps.

Kansas City has had its own issues on offense. The Chiefs are putting up just 22.8 points per game on the road with the passing game struggling to move the chains. Away from Arrowhead, Alex Smith is managing an average of only 196 passing yards and meets a Buffalo defense among the most underrated in the league.

The Bills, under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, have done a tremendous job limiting opponents’ chances. Buffalo is giving up just 326 yards per game – eighth in the league – and has forced rival offenses to settle for field goal attempts on 45 percent of their trips inside the red zone at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills have been especially stingy against the run, budging for only 3.6 yards per carry – seventh lowest in the NFL – and can put the breaks on Kansas City’s ground game.

That defense could crack an unfocused Kansas City team in the mouth, with the Chiefs riding high on their current three-game streak and looking ahead to Week 11’s showdown with the Seattle Seahawks back in Arrowhead.

An underrated Bills stop unit and an improving passing game is why I’m playing on Buffalo as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday.

Jets. 10* best bet. Analysis before game day 

I’m playing on the Detroit Lions as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. Detroit took a three-game winning streak into the bye week and takes on a Miami Dolphins team that isn’t as good as its own three-game winning run would lead bettors to believe.

The Lions offense is usually the squad getting the headlines but the stop unit is the talk of the town in the Motor City. Detroit ranks No. 1 in yards allowed, giving up only 290 yards per game, and has a dominating front four that is pressuring opposing passers for 23 sacks on the season. Miami has struggled with protection at times and this Lions pass rush can disrupt a Dolphins offense that is finding it form.

Not to be outdone, Detroit offense returns its top weapon in WR Calvin Johnson, who has sat out the previous three games with an ankle injury. Johnson is the lifeblood of this offense, which has struggled without him drawing defenders to his side of the field. Detroit has averaged just over 19 points since he went down. The Lions are also getting dynamic RB Reggie Bush back on the field, another weapons the Miami defense must account for.

The Dolphins come into Week 10 on a three-game tear but have taken those wins over some teams in tough situations. Miami took advantage of a reeling Bears squad with locker room issues, then beat up on the toothless Jaguars, before hosting a Chargers team that traveled cross country for an early kickoff last Sunday.

The Lions defense and its ability to pressure the passer and an offense getting its top target back is why I’m playing on Detroit as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the Pittsburgh Steelers as my 10* Main Event Sunday night. The Steelers have revenge on their minds versus the Baltimore Ravens and come into Week 9 playing some of the best football in the league, with perhaps the hottest quarterback under center.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger put up a game for the ages in a 51-34 victory over the Colts last weekend, throwing for six touchdowns and 522 yards. Big Ben is not likely to repeat that output but he’s had the hot hand, with 1,288 yards passing and 10 touchdowns to one interception in the last four games in which the Steelers are 3-1 SU and ATS.

Pittsburgh was embarrassed by Baltimore in Week 2, losing 26-6 and getting shutout of the end zone. The Steelers have covered in three of their last five head-to-head meetings with the Ravens, with a push in that span, and oddsmakers aren’t giving them much credit despite holding the home edge at Heinz Field.

Baltimore has some holes in its defense, most notably starting corner Jimmy Smith. The Ravens have done a good job against the run this season but are allowing 256 yards passing per game – 22nd in the NFL. Pittsburgh has plenty of weapons to choose from and Roethlisberger will exploit any weaknesses he finds in the pass defense.

With Pittsburgh red hot and stoked by revenge against the Ravens, I’m playing on Pittsburgh as my 10* Main Event Sunday night.

I’m playing on the Seattle Seahawks as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The defending Super Bowl champs have put in three shaky performances – going 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS – but have a chance to redeem themselves in front of the infamous 12th Man against the winless Oakland Raiders and rookie QB Derek Carr Sunday.

Enough is enough for the Seahawks, who look nothing like the team that dominated Denver in the Super Bowl last February. Seattle’s defense has been nowhere near as imposing, giving up an average of 126 rushing yards against in that three-game span. This divisional spat with the Raiders, who rank dead last in rushing yards (69.6 per game), is a great kick starter to get the Seahawks stop unit back on track.

Another hiccup in the Seattle system is the offense, which stalled out for only 13 points in a close win over Carolina last week. Running back Marshawn Lynch has been the center of ridicule, managing just under 59 yards per game in that three-game stretch. Beast Mode will look to shut those doubters up with a big day on the ground against a Oakland defense getting bullied for 130.1 rushing yards per outing – 26th in the NFL. 

Even the Mother Nature is setting up for a big day from the Seahawks. The forecast for Seattle is calling for soggy weather and temperatures dipping into the 40s – a perfect day for football by CenturyLink Field standards. 

With Seattle anxious to impress and the Raiders and their rookie passer walking into hostile territory, I’m playing on Seattle as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.   

I’m playing on the New England Patriots as my 10* Rivalry Best of the Best Sunday. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady open another chapter in their longstanding rivalry in Week 9. The Patriots have the home-field edge and history on their side Sunday afternoon.

Manning and Brady have been going at it for a while. This will be the 16th meeting between the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, with Brady and the Patriots holding a 10-5 SU and 7-6-2 ATS edge. However, historical records don’t hold much water compared to current form, and no team looks hotter than New England heading into Week 9.

After many wrote off the Pats in the early going, New England has reeled off four straight victories since losing in embarrassing fashion at Kansas City on Monday Night Football. But despite that roll, oddsmakers are still discounting New England and setting it as a rare home underdog this Sunday. Since his time with the Pats, Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home pup.

The Patriots have outscored opponents 158-87 in that four-game span. And while the offense steals a lot of the headlines – especially in this type of matchup – New England’s defense has been one of the best stop units in the league. The Patriots have the second-best pass defense in the NFL, allowing only 210.9 yards against per game, and boast eight interceptions and 10 forced fumbles. This unit checked Manning to just 150 yards passing, two touchdowns and an interception in last year’s remarkable comeback in Foxborough. 

An undervalued Patriots team with a defense stepping up for this big game is why I’m playing New England as my 10* Rivalry Best Game Of The Year.

I’m playing on the New York Jets as my 10* AFC Best of the Best Sunday. The Jets are being discounted by the oddsmakers in this road trip to face the Kansas City Chiefs, but have shown a toughness away from home this season.

New York is hoping the injection of veteran QB Michael Vick will help spark the offense in Week 9 after struggling to gain ground with second-year passer Geno Smith under center. Smith often tried too hard to be the “pass first” QB, giving up many opportunities to run the ball instead. The Jets won’t have that problem with Vick, who can still chew up big yardage with his legs. 

The threat of Vick breaking off big gains on the ground will keep the Chiefs defense on its toes, and will likely leave them to designate a linebacker to spy on the QB if Vick can do some damage with the run. That should open up some shorter underneath passes to new playmaker Percy Harvin, who can tack on yards after the catch, as well as budding TE Jace Amaro, who is currently second on the team in receiving yards.

Kansas City has done a good job stymieing the passing game this year – ranked tops in the NFL – but have been pushed around by opposing run games. On top of Vick’s ability to scramble, New York is getting great production from RB Chris Ivory. He’s found the end zone five times already and dominated the Patriots on Thursday night two weeks ago, running for 107 yards and picking up 5.1 yards per carry. 

The Chiefs allowed 171 yards to San Francisco three games ago, but haven’t faced a dominant rushing attack since. The Jets come into Week 9 with the fourth-most potent ground game, at 139.9 yards an outing. New York can control the pace of the game and keep this contest much closer than books expect.

A relentless Jets ground game and a Chiefs defense that’s been bulldozed at times this season is why I’m playing on the New York Jets as my 10* 

I’m playing on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. Tampa Bay isn’t getting much respect on the road in Ohio, despite taking on a Cleveland Browns team that has lost its offensive pace and has benefited from a light schedule.

The Buccaneers have dropped some tight games in recent weeks, suffering two overtime losses including a 19-13 defeat in the added frame against Minnesota last weekend. Tampa Bay could easily be 3-1 in its last four and this spread would look a lot different.

The Bucs butt heads with a Browns team that has watched the power from its running game go out the window. After marching through opponents to open the season, Cleveland has managed to rush for just 108 yards on 55 carries in its last two outings – an average of just 1.96 yards per run. The power outage on the ground has everything to do with the loss to star center Alex Mack, who is out with a broken leg.

Adding to Cleveland’s offensive woes is a concussion to standout TE Jordan Cameron, who is out indefinitely after suffering yet another concussion against Oakland last week. Cameron was QB Brian Hoyer’s safety net and without him and a legit run game to keep the defense honest, Hoyer could find himself under a ton of pressure from a Bucs defense that is still out to prove itself.

A hungry Tampa Bay team and a Cleveland offense limping into Week 9 is why I’m playing on Tampa Bay as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday.  

I’m playing on the Washington Redskins as my 10* Best Bet Monday. The Redskins have a chance to catch the Dallas Cowboys in a perfect letdown spot on Monday Night Football and won’t roll over for their hated divisional rival, presenting some great value against the spread. Washington has played Dallas hard in past meetings, covering the spread in seven of their last eight games.

The Cowboys come into Week 8 fat and cocky off two massive wins. Dallas stunned Seattle in CenturyLink Field two weeks ago then followed that with a one-sided win against the Giants last Sunday. With an important NFC tilt against the Cardinals on tap, Washington can also catch the Cowboys looking ahead.

The Redskins snapped a four-game skid with a win over Tennessee last Sunday. Washington is handing the ball to third-string QB Colt McCoy this Monday, with head coach Jay Gruden putting his full confidence in the former Texas star. McCoy looked great in relief of Kirk Cousins last week, completing 11 of 12 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown. Washington has dangerous weapons around McCoy in WRs Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, who was a thorn in the side of the Cowboys during his tenure with the Eagles.

Washington’s defense continues to stay under the radar, despite limiting opponents to just 321.9 yards per game – sixth lowest in the NFL. The Redskins have an aggressive defensive line that will make life tough on Cowboys QB Tony Romo, who is still limited by his nagging back injury. If they can plug the running lanes and keep RB DeMarco Murray from finding daylight, it could be a long night for the Dallas offensive line.

A unfocused Dallas team and an undervalued Washington side is why I’m playing on Washington as my 10* Best Bet Monday.

I’m playing on the New Orleans Saints as my 10* Main Event Sunday. New Orleans is back home in the Superdome with a chance to make a statement in the NFC and springboard itself back into the Super Bowl conversation against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football

The Saints are kicking themselves after letting the Lions steal a win in Week 7, giving up two late touchdowns to Detroit and losing 24-23 on the road. New Orleans has its back against the wall, sitting at just 2-4 SU and ATS on the season, needing a big game on the NFL’s big stage Sunday night.

This team is a different animal at home, and has been for a long time. The Saints have covered in 36 of their previous 53 home games – 68 percent – and are a perfect 6-0 SU at home on Sunday night under head coach Sean Payton, who took over the clipboard in 2006. 

These two teams have produced some lofty scores in recent history, but the Saints could opt to exploit the Packers’ biggest weakness – the run defense – Sunday night. Green Bay is allowing 147.7 yards on the ground per game, which ranks second worst in the NFL. New Orleans lost RB Pierre Thomas last week but returns Mark Ingram and has a dangerous weapon in Khiry Robinson, who has shown his explosiveness this season. 

New Orleans defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will likely follow his brother Rex’s gameplan versus Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers. Rex Ryan’s Jets sacked Rodgers four times and limited the former MVP to a 59.5 completion percentage. Look for an aggressive pass rush from New Orleans, which was able to get three sacks on Detroit QB Matt Stafford and pick off two passes last Sunday. 

A desperate Saints squad right at home on Sunday night is why I’m playing on New Orleans as my 10* Main Event Sunday.

I’m playing on the Cincinnati Bengals as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. The Bengals are ripe for a rebound after a dismal showing against the Colts in Week 7 and can’t afford a loss to AFC North rivals, the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday afternoon.

Cincinnati is happy to be back home in Paul Brown Stadium, where it averages 31.3 points per game – compared to just 13.3 on the road. The Bengals actually play their next three games at home, allowing the team to relax and focus on football heading into this important Week 8 matchup. Cincinnati is a moneymaker in Cleveland, covering the spread in 13 of their last 16 home stands.

The Bengals were able to edge the Ravens on the road in Week 1, getting a tremendous game from its defense which limited Baltimore to 16 points and forced two turnovers. Cincinnati will have LB Vontaze Burfict on the field after he suffered a neck injury last week. Burfict was a dominating force in the opener against Baltimore before leaving the game with a concussion – a dramatic turning point in that Week 1 contest. 

Baltimore has picked up back-to-back wins against lesser opponents, misleading the odds for this divisional grudge match. The Ravens rolled over the hapless Buccaneers 48-17 in Week 6 and then handled the Falcons with ease, winning 29-7 last Sunday. 

Those one-sided victories came against defenses ranked 32nd and 30th respectively. And while the Bengals defense currently sits between those clubs at 31st, this stop unit has shown its teeth. Cincinnati ranks fifth in the NFL in turnover ratio, registering 10 takeaways while turning the ball over just five times.

A home-happy Bengals team and an overrated Ravens side is why I’m playing Cincinnati as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday.

I’m playing on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Buccaneers are off the bye and at home to one of the few NFL teams on par with them in the NFL power ratings, the Minnesota Vikings, who are bound for a letdown after a heartbreaking loss in Week 7. 

Tampa Bay enjoyed a bye this past week, with head coach Lovie Smith tinkering with a defense that is allowing a league-worst 34 points per game. The Bucs have run some tough road in recent weeks, facing myriad of elite passers in Joe Flacco, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan – three of which have quarterbacked Super Bowl winners. 

Tampa Bay gets a break with rookie Teddy Bridgewater under center for the Vikings. Bridgewater has only one touchdown pass to five interceptions, and doesn’t present the deep threat the Bucs have feared in recent games. Minnesota has been miserable at protecting its franchise future, allowing opponents to sack its quarterback 19 times in the past three games.

The Vikings face a familiar foe in former head coach and current Bucs defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier Sunday. Frazier, who was fired from Minnesota last December, has first-hand knowledge of the Vikings personnel and will look to exploit that inside info in Week 8. 

Minnesota comes into Week 8 already on its heels. The Vikings lost 17-16 to Buffalo Sunday on a last-second touchdown, handing the team its third straight loss. That deflating result, plus the fact Minnesota has scored 10 or fewer points in four of its seven games sets up perfect for a Tampa Bay team in need of a break.

An opportunistic Bucs team and the Vikings’ offensive woes is why I’m playing on Tampa Bay as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the BRONCOS. Denver appears to have hit its stride after struggling prior to the bye week, winning handily over the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets. Its reward: a home date with a San Francisco 49ers unit that fell asleep at the switch early on before rallying to beat St. Louis.

Led by Peyton Manning and his usual cast of characters, the Denver offense has rolled to 72 points over the past two games - and probably could have scored a lot more than that if it really wanted to. Aside from a rough three-quarter stretch in Seattle - where more than a few teams have had trouble over the years -  Manning and the Broncos have looked an awful lot like they did last season. Expect the Broncos to pick on the 49ers’ secondary, particularly since they will likely struggle to do much on the ground. 

San Francisco fell behind 14-0 early against the Rams and was fortunate to pull away, taking advantage of several St. Louis miscues. The 49ers shouldn’t expect a repeat from a Broncos side that is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game in the NFL (318.2). Add in a decimated 49ers defensive line that will be likely be without Patrick Willis, and the Broncos are primed for a big win in prime time.

10* - SNF Game Of The Year

I’m playing on the RAIDERS. Oakland is still looking for its first outright win, but looked good in last week’s narrow loss to San Diego and remains home for a date with an Arizona Cardinals team that has struggled mightily to contain opposing pass attacks all season long.

I’m not expecting much rushing in this one; the Cardinals rank 30th in yards-per-game average (85.6) and third in fewest yards allowed (75.8) while the Raiders are averaging just 72 yards per contest on the ground. But rookie Raiders quarterback Derek Carr erupted for 282 yards and four scores against a Chargers defense that came in as one of the stingiest against the pass - and now he gets to feast on a Cards secondary allowing a league-high 309 yards per contest through the air.

Oakland is also resilient, going 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 350 or more yards in its previous outing. With the Cardinals expecting to start either Carson Palmer, who chucked 13 interceptions in eight road games last season, or unproven Drew Stanton, who has completed fewer than 49 percent of his passes, I don’t have faith that the offense will score enough to make up for what could be a rough day on the Arizona D.

10* - Non-Conference Game Of The Year

I’m playing on the CHARGERS. Philip Rivers and Co. have been one of the most impressive home teams so far this season, outscoring the opposition 94-35. And while the visiting Kansas City Chiefs have looked decent in their three road outings so far in 2014, I don’t how they can match Rivers on offense - or stop him on defense.

Rivers has led the Chargers to five wins in a row, with the offense putting up 30 or more points four times in that stretch. And while that run includes victories over Jacksonville, the New York Jets and Oakland - three teams that aren’t exactly Super Bowl contenders - it kicked off with triumphs over Seattle and Buffalo. Rivers has dissected every defense he has encountered since Week 2, and the Chiefs - despite ranking seventh in opposing passing yards per game (214.4) - shouldn’t mount much resistance.

Kansas City’s running game needs to be respected - Jamaal Charles is a phenomenal talent, and his backup (Knile Davis) did terrific work in his absence. But Alex Smith and the passing game has been largely underwhelming yet again, ranked second-last in yards per game (197.4) with just eight touchdowns through five games. As good as Charles is, he can’t do it himself against a Chargers team that should challenge the 30-point plateau.

San Diego comes in 7-1 ATS in its last eight games; expect that trend to continue this week.

10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the JAGUARS. Jacksonville nearly pulled out its first win of the season in Tennessee last weekend, and now returns home to face a Cleveland Browns team that is giving up more than 400 yards per game. I’ll happily take the points here, even with the Jags’ offense still struggling to find its legs.

The switch from Chad Henne to Blake Bortles hasn’t yet resulted in more points on the scoreboard, but it has allowed Jacksonville to sustain longer drives and keep the beleaguered defense fresh. The Jaguars averaged just over 24 minutes of possession time in its first three games, and close to 29 minutes in three contests since. That has had a major impact on a defensive unit that has limited opponents to 33 combined points in back-to-back losses.

The Jaguars are also committed to running the ball more - and that could cause a problem for a Browns defense surrendering the most rushing yards per game in the NFL (149.6). And these aren’t elite rushing games the Browns are facing - they allow 149 yards on the ground against Tennessee, 160 versus Baltimore and 174 to New Orleans. Jacksonville hasn’t run the ball well all season - but I believe they’ll do so with plenty of success this Sunday.

10* - Best Bet

I’m playing on the Philadelphia Eagles as my 10* Divisional Best Of Best Sunday. Philadelphia can make a statement in the NFC East with a win over the New York Giants, who have won three in a row since dropping their first two contests.

The Eagles are scoring on both sides of the ball in recent weeks, finding the end zone on blocked punts and punt returns while also scoring off an interception return. Philadelphia is getting excellent play from its special teams, especially a return unit that is giving the offense tremendous starting field position. 

The offense has needed that help in recent games. Chip Kelly’s high-octane attack has sputtered a bit, with QB Nick Foles making some costly mistakes. However, Kelly cracked down on Foles and has tinkered with his passer leading into this Sunday night game, confident he can find his form again.

The Giants defense has been able to capitalize on some friendly defensive matchups recently. New York faced Houston without RB Arian Foster, caught Washington backup Kirk Cousins in a bad place, and hosted an Atlanta team that can’t score on the road this past weekend. In the first two games of the season, the G-Men coughed up 60 combined points and will be exposed again in Philadelphia.

New York is also prone to mistakes on the offensive end, especially QB Eli Manning. While he’s been solid during the team’s winning streak, Manning threw four picks to start the season and totaled 27 interceptions last season – three of which came against the Eagles. This Philadelphia defense can turn those errors into points very quickly.

A Philadelphia team capable of scoring points on offense, defense and special teams, as well as a mistake-prone Giants side is why I’m playing on the Philadelphia Eagles as my 10* Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH Sunday.

I’m playing on the Oakland Raiders as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Silver and Black are under new leadership for the time being, with Dennis Allen getting the ax and fiery Tony Sporano taking over on an interim basis. The team has responded in a positive light and are a live underdog against the San Diego Chargers in Week 6.

Sporano got things started with a bang in the Bay Area, prompting his players to bury a football representing the team’s slow start to the season. By the looks of things, and reports out of practice, there’s new life in the Raiders coming into Sunday. The drills were smoother and quicker, the team seemed more focused and an importance on fundamental football has play looking sharper. 

On the other side of the field, the Chargers are scrambling to fill holes on their depth chart thanks to a rash of injuries. The rushing corps was already depleted with the losses of Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead, but now that fellow RB Donald Brown is dealing with a concussion the Bolts are scrambling to find capable bodies to run the football – even going as far as giving veteran Ronnie Brown another go-around. 

On top of the banged-up running game, San Diego is down to its fourth-string center after Doug Legursky was placed on IR this week. The Chargers are forced to slide rookie guard Chris Watt to center for this Sunday’s game, throwing a major wrench in the Bolts offense. 

The Raiders defense, which is expected to pick up the pace with Sporano making the calls, will test that weakness in the Bolts’ offensive line. Without a running game to keep Oakland honest, expect plenty of blitz packages from the Raiders as they try to rush QB Philip Rivers in the pocket. Points may be hard to come by, even for this Chargers attack that has seemed so potent at times.

A revitalized Oakland side and a Chargers teams frantically trying to fill holes is why I’m playing on the Oakland Raiders as my 10* Best Bet.

I am playing on NEW ENGLAND. The betting public could barely wait for oddsmakers to release this line before they started throwing money down on the Bengals for this Sunday night matchup. I believe they’re throwing money down the drain and here’s why.

Let’s keep in mind that the Patriots are 2-2 this season, not 0-4 like the recent dooms day media coverage would suggest. That’s still good enough for a three-way tie for tops in the AFC East.

The Pats are at home this week where they’ve won 10 straight games and gone 7-3 against the spread in those efforts. They’ve also won and covered in their last four home games against winnings teams, which shouldn’t surprise anyone that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick tend to rise to the occasion.

This line is skewed by the fact the Pats are coming off one of their worst losses in the Brady-Belichick era but I always caution bettors not to overreact to one game. I’m focusing instead on the fact the Pats own the fourth-best total defense in the league and the best passing defense. That will be enough to keep New England close and allow Brady and the offense to snap out of their passing funk.

The Pats can only go up on offense and there’s no better spot for them to quiet the apocalyptic criticism than at home in a Sunday Nighter.

10* Main Event

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO. I believe the 49ers will stop the Chiefs’ momentum and send them spiraling back to earth after Sunday’s game.

Kansas City was able to handle the Patriots last week on home soil by bullying them at the line of scrimmage. I don’t see that happening this week on hostile ground in San Francisco. The Niners have one of the best front seven units in the NFL and the their O-line is coming off its best game of the season after running back Frank Gore dashed for 118 yards against the Eagles.

San Fran owns the second best overall defense in the NFL and they have a knack for turning the ball over with five interceptions and four fumble recoveries. They’ll also be very comfortable playing against their former QB Alex Smith on the other side of the field.

On offense, the Niners present a challenge the Chiefs haven’t truly faced yet this year – a legit dual threat QB. Colin Kaepernick leads the NFL with 187 rushing yards and though he doesn’t rack up a ton of mileage through the air, he is efficient with a 66.9 completion percentage. The Niners offense also knows how to move the chains when it needs to, ranking fifth in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate.

10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on CAROLINA. Panthers QB Cam Newton faces one of his favorite teams to throw against on Sunday, which is just what Carolina needs to snap out of its two-game losing streak.

Newton has passed for over 300 yards each of the last two times he faced the Bears and don’t be surprised if he does it a third straight time. The Bears secondary ranks a disappointing 20th in the league in passing yards allowed and they have struggled to consistently bring a pass rush. (They rank just 20th in the league in rushing yards allowed.)

On offense, the Bears were thankful to see running back Matt Forte explode for 122 yards rushing last week while QB Jay Cutler struggles to establish some rhythm through the air. The problem with that for the Bears is they have a banged up offensive line that suffered another blow in practice this week when starting left tackle Jermon Bushrod hurt his knee and had to leave the field.

Carolina is an undervalued squad that has been the victim of a nasty schedule to start the season. I see them handling the Bears on Sunday in front of the home crowd.

10* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS.   After losing two straight heartbreakers, the Saints got a long overdue win last week at home. They beat Minnesota 20-9 as 9.5-point favorites within the friendly confines of the Superdome. But having to hit the road for a third time in four weeks has tempered enthusiasm here, meaning we can get away with laying a pretty short number against a still suspect Cowboys team.

Dallas had a huge come from behind victory Sunday, beating the Rams 34-31.  They trailed early 21-0 and for the first time we saw the Cowboys defense play poorly.  They gave up 448 yards and allowed St. Louis to convert 8 of 13 on third down.   Not a good sign when getting set to face Drew Brees.

These teams played last year and the results were ugly if you were a Cowboys fan.  The game was in New Orleans and the Saints won 49-17 with Brees connecting on 34 of his 41 pass attempts.  It was his third straight game throwing for at least 350 yards against this Dallas defense.   The offense set a NFL record, gaining 40 first downs.  

The Saints are clearly not the same team on the road.  They are 0-2 this year and lost four straight regular season road games.  But that lack of success has not applied to Dallas.  Brees is 3-0 all-time on the road vs. the Cowboys.

I'd say that Brees should look to pick on Cowboys' cornerback Mo Claiborne in this one, but the defender's role is going to be greatly reduced here after an awful game vs. St. Louis and storming out of practice earlier this week.  But if Claiborne is the starter, that gives you an idea on just how bad the reserves are.  

Ultimately, the Saints are going to win some road games.  This one is not outdoors, which works to the benefit of their offense.  The defense obviously made a ton of strides last week vs. Minnesota.  Dallas is just 6-11 ATS its last 17 home games including 1-4 ATS last five.  10* main event.

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO.    The 49ers are a team that really needs to win this week.  They're 1-2 and have faded badly in the second half of back to back losses to Chicago and Arizona.  Really, had it not been for a turnover-fueled first half lead against Dallas, things could actually be worse.  

Despite this, I had expected bettors to leap on San Francisco this week in a must-win spot as they host Philadelphia.  The sharp money did initially, but since then the line has held as the majority of tickets have actually come in on the underdog.  A contrarian by nature, I often find myself on the opposite side of the public.  That is the case here.

Obviously what the public sees here is a 3-0 team getting points.  But the Eagles are not your ordinary 3-0 team.  In all three games they have had to come from behind.   They've trailed in all three games by 10 or more points at one point.  Prior to this, no team had ever started a season 3-0 when trailing by double digits in each game.

An early hole here wouldn't be as easy for Philadelphia to climb out of.  On paper, the 49ers are a team designed to protect leads.  That has been their signature the past three seasons under Jim Harbaugh.  But strangely, it's been a different story this year.  In the first halves of games, San Francisco has outscored opponents 59-16.  In the second half, they are looking at a 52-3 deficit.  That's stunning, but not irreversible.  I would say the next time we see them get out to a big lead (here?), they will close out in familiar form.

One key trend is that San Francisco has yet to lose three straight games under Harbaugh.  Last year in Week 4, they were off two straight losses and routed St. Louis 35-11.  That's the only time they'd lost two straight under Harbaugh.  

Philadelphia's isn't without its own issues, on both sides of the football.  They've allowed 61 points the last two games and if you take out the second half vs. Jacksonville, they have given up an average of 10 points per quarter.  They haven't sacked the quarterback in the last two games.  The offensive line, which was so good last season, is dealing with multiple injuries.   10* personal favorite.

I'm playing on the GIANTS.   While the Giants won last week to improve their record to 1-2, the Redskins lost (but covered) and now find themselves in the same place in the NFC East standings.  I see the value as being on the dog in this one.

Eli Manning is finally starting to look like Eli Manning again.  He comes off his best game of the season, completing 21 of 28 passes against Houston for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  Most importantly, he didn't throw an interception.  Manning was also supplemented with a nice running game, courtesy of Rashad Jennings going for 176 yards.

While the Giants ended up winning by a final score of only 30-17, it wasn't even that close.  They outgained Houston 262 to 83 in the 1st half.  Again, perhaps the most important thing is that they won the turnover battle for the 1st time in a game this season.

Everyone has been quick to jump on the Kirk Cousins bandwagon in Washington.  But while the backup quarterback has put up some impressive stats so far, all he has to show for it is a win over the winless Jaguars.   He has faced two bad defenses thus far as well.  

The home team has dominated Thursday night football so far, but under coach Tom Coughlin, New York is 3-1 ATS on TNF.   Coughlin is also 11-8-1 ATS and 14-6 straight up vs. the Redskins in his time on the Giants sidelines.

The Giants swept the Redskins last season.  Both games came late in the year.  While Washington was a bad team in 2013, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Cousins started the second of the two games.  He played very poorly, completing just 19 of 49 passes while also throwing two interceptions.

Also important is pointing out that the underdog is on a 6-1 ATS run in this NFC East rivalry.  10* best bet.  

I'm playing on the NY JETS.   Last week saw the Jets blow a 21-3 lead at Green Bay, losing 31-24, but covering as underdogs.  The Bears were outright winners in San Francisco, but their game went the opposite way of the Jets as they fell behind early only to mount a successful comeback.  I'm not sold that is all is right with Chicago now. I'll be going with the Jets.

Thanks to a +4 turnover margin, the Bears were able to come from behind and beat San Francisco 28-20.  Assuming the Jets can take better care of the football than the 49ers did, Chicago still has a lot to prove in my book.

This is a team that lost outright in Week 1, at home, to Buffalo.  They were down 20-7 going into the fourth quarter last Sunday. So they're one big quarter away from being 0-2 and really they hadn't looked very good at all before that big fourth quarter in San Francisco.

Winning back to back primetime games is not easy to do.  Especially when you are the road team in both games.  That's the situation for Chicago and I'm just not confident in them in this spot given a 2-6 ATS record off a win under Marc Trestman. Overall, the Bears are a bankroll busting 5-12-1 ATS the last two seasons.

The Bears' run defense looks no better this year. They've given up an average of 5.3 yards per carry in two games, allowing 320 yards on the ground.  The Jets have run the ball very well in their two games, including 212 yards in the win vs. Oakland.  They had 146 more last week against the Packers.  They also have a mobile QB in Geno Smith.  

Not only do the Jets have the league's best rushing offense, but they also have the league's best rushing defense.  They've allowed an average of just 52.5 yards per game so far.

The Jets were 6-2 SU last year off a loss.  They had the same record at home.  I'll lay a short number in this situation.  10* main event.

I'm playing on MIAMI.   Neither of these teams played well last week.  Actually, I take that back.  Kansas City played better than expected in covering the spread in a 24-17 loss to the Broncos. But the bottom line is that the Chiefs have opened 0-2, and this has the look of a difficult season for them.  I'll lay the points with the Dolphins here.

Miami at least has a win to its credit, beating New England in Week 1.  That was here at home.  They didn't fare nearly as well last week up in Buffalo, but that's a place where they traditionally struggle.  Back at home, I'd expect them to bounce back.

Both teams may be without their starting running back for this game (check statuses).   It is confirmed that Miami will not have Knowshon Moreno available for the next four weeks after he dislocated his elbow against the Bills.  Kansas City is still unsure of the status of Jamaal Charles, but remember he wasn't very effective in an opening week loss to Tennessee.  Another key injury the Chiefs are dealing with is the ankle of starting safety Eric Berry.

Overall, seven Kansas City starters are either injured or suspended right now.

I have to wonder how KC will respond after suffering such a tough loss in Denver last week.  History says not well as the team is 3-7 ATS off its last 10 straight up losses while also going 1-4 ATS off its last five ATS wins.  

Miami has done well at home recently, covering five of six.  They are also 5-2 ATS in September the last two years.

Chiefs QB Alex Smith has not played well and comes into this game as the league's lowest rated passer.  If the Dolphins offensive line can protect Ryan Tannehill the same way they did vs. New England, then they should leave with the cash.  10* personal favorite. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND.   Those who find value in taking large underdogs will have that theory put to the test this week as the Raiders visit New England.   This line was quickly bet up and it has reached a point where I personally feel the value is on Oakland.

Don't get me wrong; the Raiders have struggled.  Most would consider them to be the worst team in the league.  That's why they're getting so many points.  But I am of the opinion that this is simply too many points to lay in an NFL game, especially one taking place so early in the season.  There's always the issue of motivation for the favorite.  

New England is a team that's earned a reputation for putting up a lot of points.  But even though they scored 30 last week on Minnesota, I don't believe this Patriots offense is as good as previous editions.  They failed to gain even 300 yards against the Vikings and one of their three touchdowns came after a blocked field goal.

Tom Brady seems to be in a bit of a decline.  He threw for just 149 yards last week after completing only 51.8 percent of his passes in the first game.

The Patriots have also hurt themselves.  They've had a league-high 263 yards go against them due to penalties.

Bad starts have been another issue.   They have fallen behind 7-0 in both games thus far.  Against Miami, they went three and out, then had a punt blocked.  Versus Minnesota, they gave up a seven-play, 80 yard opening drive.  With the spread being this high, falling behind at all would make it very difficult to cover.

New England has not been a good bet as a double digit fave recently. They are just 6-14 ATS laying 10 or more points dating back to the 2008 season including 1-6 ATS the last seven times.  10* best bet. 

I'm playing the GIANTS.  For a second straight week, Houston is a road favorite.  They easily covered last week, but that was against Oakland.  The Giants come in desperately needing a win, having opened 0-2, both straight up and against the spread.  As a home underdog, I think they are a tremendous value in Week 3.

Let's not forget the Texans also opened 2-0 last year. They would go on to lose their final 14 games in what was a disastrous season. No one, including me, is saying that will happen again in 2014.  But, the level of competition hasn't been too significant to this point either.  So far, Houston has beaten both the Redskins and the Raiders, two teams that combined for just seven wins a year ago.

The Giants have played a couple of decent teams in Detroit and Arizona.  While we all saw them struggle in the first game (Monday night game), they actually played a lot better last week vs. the Cardinals.  With the team down 22-14, running back Rashad Jennings had a costly fumble inside the Arizona 20-yard line.  That was only after a Ted Ginn punt return for a TD and the Giants fumbling the ensuing kickoff away, setting up a Cardinals' field goal.

One positive development for New York against Arizona was the play of QB Eli Manning.  After a rough preseason, Manning appeared to have a grasp of the new offense for the first time.  He completed 26 of 39 pass attempts for 277 yards and two touchdowns.  One of his two interceptions came on a desperation heave at the end of the game.  The other was on a tipped ball.  

Last week's win and cover by the Texans broke an 8-game ATS losing streak when looking to follow up a SU win.  

Surprisingly, despite two relatively comfortable wins, Houston has been outgained in both games this year.  Turnovers, which killed them last year, have swung in their favor and that's a big reason for them being unbeaten right now.  But I look for the Giants to get the breaks in this one.  10* best bet.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA.   With the Colts losing last week, many are going to be pointing towards Andrew Luck's 9-0-1 ATS record off a SU loss the last two years.  But I don't necessarily share that same faith in this year's Colts.  Especially now that they're laying points to a Philadelphia team that can score in bunches.  I'm taking the Eagles.  

Neither of these teams got off to good starts in Week 1.  Indianapolis obviously lost, falling to Denver 32-24.  But because they were able to come back from a 24-0 deficit to cover, I think the public is putting too much faith in them.   Philadelphia was trailing by a similar margin last week vs. Jacksonville, but still covered a double digit spread against Jacksonville.  That's more impresssive to me.

I expect Indy to struggle all season defensively.  They were already going to be without Robert Mathis for four games (suspended), but now he's lost for the year after injuring himself while working out.  Mathis led the NFL in sacks (19.5) last year.  That's a big loss.  They also allowed 102 yards rushing against the Broncos.  Last year, Philadelphia led the NFL in rushing.

The Colts have also become too one-dimensional on offense.  They can't run the ball and the Trent Richardson trade looks worse with each passing game.  Andrew Luck just doesn't have enough help this year.

The team will be weaker at linebacker in this game with Jerrell Freeman (33 straight starts) not playing because of a hamstring injury.  His replacement, Josh McNary, missed a good deal of training camp.

Even with two backups playing last week (will be the same this week), Philadelphia's offensive line didn't allow a sack in the second half against Jacksonville.  That's impressive.  

Though Indy has proven itself to be a great bounce back team, I just don't trust this defense enough to call for them to even win the game.  10* main event.

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS.   Both of these teams are off ugly home losses to start the year.  Already coming into the game with problems at QB, St. Louis scored only six points in an ugly loss to Minnesota at home that saw them have to call upon third-string QB Austin Davis (remember that Sam Bradford is out for the year).  Tampa Bay hardly did any better.  They scored only 14 points in a home loss to Carolina.  Josh McCown did not look like the same quarterback we saw for a nice stretch last year in Chicago, including tossing a horrible interception right after fumbling the ball on the same play.

Because Tampa Bay was expected to improve this year and St. Louis was expected to basically be the same or worse, the public has gotten down early on the Bucs in this game, pushing the line higher than it should be.  Tampa might win this one, but I can't see them covering.  Not after last week's performance.

This is the kind of matchup where I'd probably take the dog regardless.  Because the game is in Tampa, it's obviously going to be the Rams catching points.  But with a very good front four, I believe they're uniquely suited to stopping a Bucs offense that looked pretty lost last week.

When the advanced line for this game was posted at the Westgate (formerly Las Vegas Hilton) prior to the Week 1 kickoffs, it had Tampa Bay laying only 2.5 points.  While the Rams certainly didn't perform up to expectations last week, neither did the Buccaneers, so in this instance I feel the line move, especially as significant as it is, is unwarranted.

TB was held scoreless for three quarters last week and quite frankly McCown looked horrible.  He threw for only 183 yards on 35 attempts, which works out to 5.2 YPA.  That's an ugly number.

McCown's job this week is made more difficult by the fact that Logan Mankins is out. Acquired in a trade with New England right before the regular season, Mankins was supposed to be the difference maker for a Bucs offensive line that otherwise had plenty of question marks.  Even with Chris Long being injured, the Rams' front four remains talented enough (they still have Robert Quinn), to make it long day for the Bucs up front.  10* best bet. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON.   Is it too early to start talking about a "must win" for 1st year Redskins coach Jay Gruden?  Starting 0-2 against the AFC South is I'm sure not the way he envisioned his tenure beginning, so a win over Jacksonville is something I'd certainly call a "must."  

Washington opened the season by losing 17-6 at Houston (Remember, I took the Texans).  While Robert Griffin III and the offense continue to not impress, the one positive takeaway I had for the team was a defense that held Texans stud running back Arian Foster to an average of just 3.8 yards per carry.  The Redskins did finish the game with the edge in total yards, 372-316.  

Jacksonville meanwhile was a painful beat for their backers as an early 17-0 lead turned into a 34-17 loss and those who took them plus the double digits went from feeling they had a potential outright winner on their hands to a losing ticket altogether.

I can see how given all the buzz underdogs created in Week 1 (went 11-5 ATS overall) that those same people might want to come back with the Jaguars again this week.  But I'd tell those folks to beware.  This is still not a very good team and their shortcoming became apparent as they fell apart down the stretch last week.

The offense didn't really do anything after taking that 17-0 lead.  Toby Gerhart was given a pretty sweet deal to be the lead running back here, but gaining only 42 yards on 18 carries is not a positive sign.  Chad Henne is still the quarterback, by the way.   Defensively, this team lacks a serious pass rush.  That's got to be music to the ears of RG3 after facing Houston last week.

At the end of the day, Gruden can't lose his 1st home game or he risks losing the fanbase.  Look for Washington to win this one by at least a touchdown.  10* personal favorite.

I'm playing on BALTIMORE.   Obviously, this game is going to take a back seat to the Ray Rice storyline.  But I feel in a must-win spot, the Ravens are somewhat being undervalued here.  They nearly came back to beat Cincinnati last week while Pittsburgh almost blew it against Cleveland.   I can't see Baltimore, traditionally a very strong home team, opening its season with two straight division losses at M&T Bank Stadium.  

There were some trends last week that really supported a play on the Ravens.  Before losing outright to the Bengals to open the season, the team was 9-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread as a home favorite of three points or less under John Harbaugh.  Week 1 marked their first home loss in the first four weeks of the season since Harbaugh's been the coach here.  Just last year, they were 6-2 SU at home.  The fact that they lost last week doesn't make those trends any less true; there's just a loss in there now.

Incredibly, the past five meetings between these teams have all been decided by three points or less.  That makes a case for the dog in this situation, especially since the Ravens only won 22-20 over the Steelers Thanksgiving night at home last year.  (PIttsburgh left with the cash as three-point underdogs after missing a potential game-tying 2-pt conversion.)

But the Steelers were also on the verge of not covering that game obviously, before the late TD.  They were on the wrong end of a backdoor cover last week, blowing a 27-3 lead at home to the Browns and needing a last second field goal just to pull out the straight up win.

With the Ray Rice situation hopefully behind them, perhaps Baltimore pulls together in this one? It's a game they have to have and in the past we've seen teams pull together amidst similar distractions.

Perhaps Joe Flacco's numbers would have looked a lot better last week had his receivers not dropped six passes.  Also, the Ravens defense did allow just one touchdown, the late bomb to AJ Green.   Pittsburgh's defense looked a lot worse against a Cleveland offense that few have an affinity for.   10* main event.

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO.  Getting the "hook" (half point) here is obviously pretty nice. But I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't end up needing it at all as I think the Chargers have an excellent shot at taking this game outright.

Arizona is coming off a 10-win season.  But few are predicting a repeat finish this season playing in the tough NFC West.  The Cardinals defense carried them last year, but three of their starting players from the front seven are gone (Dansby, Dockett, Washington).  That's going to spell trouble against a Chargers offense that by most measures only ranked behind Denver in terms of being the best in the league in 2013.  

San Diego's defense was its Achilles heel last year, but that group actually improved as the season went along, thanks to a pass rush.  They brought in some new cornerbacks in the offseason, one in the draft (Verrett) and one in free agency (Flowers), and I like those moves.

But when discussing the Chargers, you have to talk QB Philip Rivers.  He completed almost 70% of his passes last season, a number which the coaching staff predicted before the season and was laughed at for.  The new coaching staff did wonders for him and he ended up with almost 4500 yards passing and 32 touchdown passes.  

Even if tight end Antonio Gates can't go tonight, Rivers won't be lacking for weapons.  Receiver Keenan Allen had great rookie year and the Chargers have another TE in waiting in LaDarius Green.  

I am far more worried about Arizona's injury situation. Running back Andre Ellington was supposed to have a breakout year, but has been limited in practice and will be a gametime decision.  Also, what if punter Dave Zastudil can't go?  The team doesn't have another punter on the roster!

The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS their last four appearances on Monday Night Football.  10* best bet.

I'm playing on HOUSTON.   Two teams looking to rebound from very disappointing campaigns meet in the first week of the season. With Houston at home and available below the key number of three, I've decided to lay the points.  

In fact, according to record these teams should have drafted 1-2 back in April.  But because of the Robert Griffin III trade, the Redskins lost their right to the #2 overall choice.  Houston being able to add Jadeveon Clowney while Washington really added no one of consequence is an obvious and automatic advantage in the Texans favor.

We have two rookie head coaches making their debuts in this one as well.  Both have been head coaches before; Houston's Bill O'Brien in college and Washington's Jay Gruden in the Arena League.  Both were also offensive coordinators previously in the NFL.   Opening at home, I give the slight edge to O'Brien.  

With Clowney joining JJ Watt, I give the Texans a significant edge defensively in this matchup.  Linebacker Brian Cushing also returns from an injury-riddled campaign.   

While Houston has questions at quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick?), who knows if RG3 will ever be able to stay healthy for Washington?  After the disastrous end to the Mike Shanahan era in D.C, things can probably only get better, but Griffin is back to square one.  

Trends aren't necessarily as useful when you have new head coaches.  But for what it's worth, the Redskins did fail to cover five of their last six road games last year.  There is the fact that Houston lost its last 14 games last season.  So O'Brien and the new coaching staff will be desperate for a win.  They'll get it and the cover.  10* personal favorite.