I'm playing on LA. This pointspread is higher than a field goal. Many of the previous playoff games have been decided on the game's final play; both these teams just won by three. That's going to make it tempting, for many, to back the underdog. That sentiment, in my opinion, is helping to keep the line lower than it easily could have been and providing us with value on the favorite. 

The Bengals are a fun team to watch and they deserve enormous credit for getting here. They've got a very good young coach, an excellent young kicker, a young QB who is playing well and who has a young superstar receiver to throw the ball to. 

Notice the word that I kept using to describe the Bengals? "Young." This is all new to them. Until now, they've played without feeling any pressure. Now, having two weeks to realize the huge stage that they'll be on will change that. 

While Burrow and the Bengals may feel that they'll be back here again in the future, Stafford, Donald and the Rams know that their time is now. They may not get another opportunity. 

I've often found that teams, players and coaches "need to lose, before they can win." I like that the Rams have "come close" in recent seasons. I like that Stafford had to toil for all those years in Detroit. Don't be surprised when he's awarded the SB MVP. 

As exciting as the Bengals are, in my opinion, the Rams are better on both sides of the ball. The numbers are close but the Rams score more points and they allow less. The Rams put up those superior numbers against an arguably much tougher schedule. While some may not be impressed by the fact that they had to comeback to beat the 49'ers, keep in mind that SF was a team which had their number. The NFC West, as whole, was extremely tough. Three teams had at least 11 wins. LA, SF and Arizona combined for 37 wins themselves; Seattle is always dangerous too. The Bengals AFC North, on the other hand, arguably had a down year. Cincinnati had 11 wins but no other team had more than nine. The Steelers weren't as tough as normal, the Ravens lost Lamar to injury. The Browns dealt with issues all season. The Bengals also benefited from facing teams like the Jets, Lions and Jaguars. The Rams non-div. slate included games against the likes of the Packers, Bucs and Colts.

Remember, the Rams made Kyler Murray look scared in their playoff opener. Next, they bloodied Brady en route to knocking off the defending SB champs. 

Of course, the fact that the game is being played at SoFi Stadium also figures to help the Rams. Being in their home city, they'll be able to avoid a lot of the hype and distractions that come along with the SB. The Rams are very well-coached and I believe that it's "their time." No more comebacks for the Bengals Rams roll.

I'm playing on LA. I really like how this one sets up for the Rams. I feel that they've exorcised some demons. I like that they dominated the Bucs, blew the lead and found a way to win. I feel that'll serve them well here. Of course, Jimmy G is no Tom Brady. The Rams are going to give him fits. The 49'ers are only here because of some fortunate kick blocks. They won't be so lucky this week though. Keep in mind that they're playing their fourth straight on the road. Forget what happened in the reg. season, the Rams are better on both sides of the ball. Expect them to prove it, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GB. I love how this one sets up. The Packers are at home; a January game at Lambeau, against a team from California. The Packers had last week off to rest and prepare. The 49'ers are off a hard-fought win at Dallas. Now, they'll play another road game and will be doing so on a short week. Rodgers, one of the best quarterbacks in history, is on a mission. Garoppolo isn't on his level, at the best of times. However, he's banged-up. So are important players like Bosa and Warner. They're all expected to play. However, the short week won't make things any easier. The Packers, who won at SF earlier in the season, were the only team in the league to have a perfect home record. They won 37-10 last time that they played here, finishing with a 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record here. This will be the 49'ers fourth road game in the past five weeks. Playing at the toughest venue in the league, expect it to catch up with them. Packers win by double-digits. 

I'm playing on KC. Of course, Big Ben didn't really mean it when he said: "The Steelers don't stand a chance ... " However, in my opinion, he's right. The Steelers really don't belong here. Rothlisberger has been a warrior and has done many great things. Often under-rated and under-valued, he's come through for me many times over the years, in betting and DFS. However, he's in over his head here. Tomlin is an excellent coach but there's only so much that he can do, when his team is outmatched on both sides of the ball. Mahomes and co. are still capable of scoring quickly, when needed. However, this year's team can take another team's will away with longer drives. That helps keep the defense fresher and allows them to play a lot better. They're going to get a lead and continue to build on it. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. The Steelers are playing their second road game in two weeks. Last time that they played the second of b2b road games, they lost 41-10. Speaking of one-sided games, the Chiefs just beat the Steelers 36-10 here a few weeks ago. I'm expecting another blowout. 

I'm playing on LA. By the time this game kicks off, all the talk of a "tie" should have ended. Either way, I'm not worried about that. When asked about playing for the tie, SD coach Staley noted: "...I think we all respect the game and the NFL shield and the integrity of this game far too much to be complicit in something like that. This game matters too much to too many people, and we want to play our best and be proud of the result one way or another. We're going to do everything we can to go win this game, and play the way we're capable of playing." The Raiders deserve credit for fighting the whole way; it would have been easy to pack it in after Gruden's sudden departure. That said, I don't feel that they're going to be able to keep up with their high-powered guests. That was the case in the first meeting; LA won 28-14. Over their past five games, the Chargers have scored 41, 37, 28, 29 and 34 points. On the other hand, over their past five games, the Raiders have scored 23, 17, 16, 9 and 15 points. The Raiders are 3-7 ATS their last 10, when off two or more consec. wins. They're also 3-7 ATS their last 10, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Chargers roll. 

I'm playing on NO. As you probably heard, or figured by this line, the Saints are dealing with Covid issues. At this time, few teams aren't. The Dolphins haven't been hit nearly as hard as NO but they, too, are dealing with some cases. Some teams have been folding. Others, however, have risen to the occasion. I expect the well-coached Saints to fall into the latter category. Book has the advantage of having Alvin Kamara in the backfield. Yes, the Dolphins are hot. Keep in mind that the Saints just blanked the defending world champs though. Also, don't forget that Miami is 2-4 away from home. Those wins came by an average of four points and were both against divisional opponents. They've lost all three road games against teams from outside the AFC East. The Saints are 10-4 ATS their last 14 as underdogs. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams last met exactly one year ago, on December 20th, 2020. The Bears were underdogs but won outright, by six points. I'm expecting history to repeat itself. While the Vikings have risen to the occasion against some of the league's better teams, they've quietly gone 0-7 ATS their last seven against teams with a losing record. They lost their last two road games (Detroit, SF) outright. Note that 12 of Minnesota's 13 games this season have been decided by "single-digits." The only time that the Vikings won by more than eight points was back in September, a home game against Seattle. While they came up short against GB and Arizona, a pair of tough teams, the Bears are still battling hard. Prior to those two losses, their previous three games had all been decided by a field goal, or less. While the Bears are dealing with some Covid issues, that's the way things are these days. The Vikes have problems of their own. As Chicago coach Nagy noted: "It's the next-man-up mentality, not just for the players, but for coaches, too, is the way that I look at it. In these types of moments, what you've got to do is try to stay really positive, take care of your body, stay together and realize that we're not the only ones right now in that." I'm expecting Nagy's troops to leave it all on the field and, in what should be a close game, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. These teams just faced each other on 11/28, at Baltimore. Playing at home, the Ravens were able to grind out a 16-10 win. The Browns have some things going for them in this afternoon's rematch, starting with the venue. Playing at home makes a big difference for both teams. They're 4-2 at home compared to 2-4 on the road. Likewise, Baltimore is 5-1 at home but 3-3 (2-4 ATS) on the road. Its also important to mention that the Browns had last week off. The Ravens, meanwhile, were involved in a battle (20-19 loss) that came down to the final play, with rival Pittsburgh. We already saw that game take a toll on the Steelers, as they weren't very good at all on Thursday. I expect it to also have an effect on the Ravens. Note that Jackson was sacked seven times in the game. Also, note that the Ravens saw all-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey go down to injury. Meanwhile, Mayfield and the Browns will benefit from the extra week of preparation and recovery time. Like all teams, Cleveland is dealing with a number of injuries. That extra week off to recovery is huge. Last season's game between these teams was a wild (47-42) affair, won by the Ravens. This year, schedule in their favor, the Browns get some payback.

I'm playing on BUFFALO. At the beginning of the season, it looked like the Bills might run away with the division. The Patriots have found their way though. They enter this game on a 6-game winning streak. Currently, New England is 8-4 while Buffalo is 7-4. The teams will meet again in Week 16, at Foxboro. The Patriots have indeed fared well on the road. However, their road record includes wins against the Jets, Texans, Panthers and Falcons. All those teams are below .500 at home and overall. The Chargers are the only winning team that the Pats beat on the road. The Chargers are just 3-3 at home, too. So, yes, the Pats have played well on the road. However, they haven't faced a team with a home record as good as Buffalo's. While the Bills stumbled a couple of times in November, they closed the month strong. In addition to playing at home, I like that they've had some extra preparation time for this one. Over the past few seasons, the Pats are 4-6 SU/ATS when playing a game with a line in the -3 to +3 range. During that span, the Bills are 12-5 ATS when doing so. The Bills allowed a mere 190 yards in their last game. Look for them to be at their best tonight, improving to 10-1-2 ATS their last 13, after holding their previous opponent to 250 or fewer yards. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Obviously, I respect the champs. While I didn't touch last week's game, I won with the Bucs in their Monday night game against the Giants, two weeks ago. This Sunday, however, I feel that they're over-valued and I believe that they're walking into a hornet's nest. Admittedly, the Falcons have had a couple of duds. Their losses against New England and Dallas were ugly. However, they responded by winning their last game. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into Sunday. The 48-25 score suggests that the Bucs dominated the Falcons, in this season's first meeting. That wasn't exactly the case though. In fact, the Falcons had an edge in total yards and time of possession. The score was 28-25, entering the fourth quarter. Now, playing their second straight road game and with a big game against Buffalo on deck, the Bucs are laying double-digits on the road. They're 1-6 ATS as road favorites. That includes an 0-4 ATS record their last four on the road, when facing a team with a losing home record. This game is huge for the Falcons. Expect them to give the Bucs all they can handle for the full four quarters. 

I'm playing on NY. I successfully played against the Giants last game. However, that was a road game against the defending champs. Back home and stepping down in class, this one sets up a lot better for them. A look at the Giants' schedule shows that they've had to face some really tough teams. Prior to the Bucs, their last six games were against the Raiders, Chiefs, Panthers, Rams, Cowboys and Saints. To their credit, the Giants won three of those and they nearly beat the Chiefs, losing by only three. Prior to those six games, the Giants had a pair of losses, both by three or fewer points. So, last week notwithstanding, this team has been very competitive. Firing Jason Garrett should light a spark for the offense, too. While the Eagles have won a couple in a row, they're 2-4 ATS the past six times that they were off b2b SU victories. They're also 7-12 ATS as favorites, the past few seasons. The short week shouldn't both the Giants; they're 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were off a Monday night game. This is the first meeting of the season; these teams will play again Dec. 26th. In each of the past two seasons, the first meeting in this series has been very close. The first 2019 meeting went to OT. Then, last year's first meeting was decided by a single point. The Giants would go on to win by 10 points, in the game here at NY. Look for the Giants to bounce back with a big effort and grab the points.

I'm playing on DALLAS. This line could easily be higher. True, the Cowboys are banged up at the receiver position. True, they lost 19-9 last week. They've still got weapons though and last week's loss was on the road, against the Chiefs. They're back home now; their last game here they won 43-3. The Raiders are a mess. They've lost their last three games by a combined score of 96-43. Remember, this is a team which lost its head coach. The Raiders also saw a top receiver get arrested. Then, they released their first round cornerback due to some online threats he made. Naturally, those type of things take a toll. While the Raiders still have a talented team, playing on a short week, here at Dallas, is not the place for them to "get healthy." Not only are the Cowboys 6-1 ATS their last seven home games but they're also been money when coming off a loss. Last Thanksgiving, the Cowboys had Andy Dalton at QB. They were playing with heavy hearts, as their strength and conditioning coordinator (Markus Paul) had passed away. Then, they lost a pair of starters on the game's first drive. They went on to get pounded 41-16. Things are much different this year and I expect a determined Dallas team to bounce back with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on TB. I won with the Giants when these teams met last November. At the time, I stated that I liked how the game set up for the Giants and that I felt the Bucs were getting overvalued. This one sets up differently. Many are suddenly now down on the defending champs. Back to back setbacks will do that. Keep in  mind that those losses were both on the road. The Bucs are 4-0 SU at home, 7-1 ATS their last eight. Indeed, they're been a different team at Raymond James Stadium. The last three times that they played here they won by scores of 38-3, 45-17 and 48-25. While they've been more competitive of late, the Giants are still a 3-6 team. They've lost by 14 or more points three times. Tampa averages 31 ppg while NY averages 19.9 ppg. Tampa averages 406.4 ypg. NY averages 334. Tampa's dealing with a number of injuries but the Giants' injury issues are arguably even worse. The Bucs are 6-2 ATS over the years, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with a statement blowout. 

I'm playing on the LA RAMS. While the Titans have been rolling, I expect the Rams to provide them with a dose of reality. This will always going to be a very tough game. When news broke Monday morning about Henry being out, it got much tougher. While I'm generally of the mind that one running back is pretty much the same as another, there are obvious exceptions. Henry is one of those. The Titans will miss him. Again, this was going to be a tough game even with him though. The Titans left it all on the field in a divisional battle last week. They're now playing their second straight on the road. Prior to that, they'd had huge games against the Chiefs and Bills. I expect it all to catch up with them. The Rams are off a relatively "relaxing" 38-22 blowout of Houston. Prior to that, they'd faced the Lions and Giants. While the Titans are weary from all their battles, after facing all those losing teams, the Rams are itching to finally have one. They're 7-3 ATS their last 10, when facing a team with a winning record, in the second half of the season. Statement win and cover for the Rams. 

I'm playing on KC. The Giants sure looked better than the Chiefs last week. With last week's win, they showed they aren't a joke. Yet, the Chiefs are favored for good reason. Kansas City has been an elite team for the past few seasons. After getting embarrassed last week, we'll see the best of the former champs. This is a chance to redeem themselves on National TV and to remind everyone of how good they can be. Indeed, the Giants are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. No strangers to the spotlight, the Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four on Monday night. Winning here, on Monday night, was already going to be difficult enough, if healthy. The Giants are a banged-up team though, which makes things considerably more difficult. The last time that the Chiefs were off a loss, they bounced back with a 31-13 blowout win. After their previous loss, they bounced back with a 12-point win, at Philadelphia. I'm expecting them to pull away for another double-digit win on Monday night. 

I'm playing on the NY JETS. Last week's results are helping to provide us with excellent value. The Bengals beat up on Baltimore. The Jets got pounded by the Patriots. Those scores and the injury to Zach Wilson has led to a double-digit spread. While the Bengals are clearly better than they've been in the past, asking them to lay this many points, in this spot, is asking too much. I also played on the Jets in their last game here. The setup was somewhat similar. The Jets were off a blowout road loss and hosting a quality AFC opponent. In that case, the Jets were hosting the Titans, a team which was off a big win. As you're likely aware, the Titans have since beaten both the Chiefs and the Bills. Yet, the Jets beat them outright. Now, they're back home and getting even more points than they were for that game. Sure, White goes instead of Wilson. He got some playing time last week though and was 20 of 32 for 200+ yards. Coach Saleh said this of White: "He's a very calm man. He's a great communicator, he's got great command of the huddle. He's got great command of the offense. He understands progression reads and how to go through a progression, get the ball where it needs to go. He understands how to slide in the pocket to throw instead of slide in the pocket to run. He doesn't panic." I'm comfortable with him, or Flacco, running the offense. Importantly, I  believe that the Jets are catching Cincinnati at the right time. The Bengals will be playing their third straight road game. That's the only time that they'll do that this season. Off their big win against the hated Ravens, the Bengals could easily be patting themselves on the back a little. Also, they've got instate rival Cleveland on deck. In other words, it should be easy to look past the lowly Jets. While they may have won big last week, the Bengals have seen four of their seven games decided by a field goal. Prior to last week's loss, the Jets had seen two in a row decided by seven or less. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Packers have been playing well. However, I feel that this will prove to be a very difficult spot for them. They're off a divisional win and they've got a Thursday showdown - and potential playoff preview - with Arizona, on deck. Additionally, the Packers are dealing with a number of injuries. The only team that GB beat by more than 10 points this season was Detroit. Two wins have come by a field goal or less. Washington has played a very difficult schedule. Four of the Football Team's six games have come against the likes of the Chargers, Bills, Saints and Chiefs. Their only other two games were against the Falcons and the Giants. Washington won both of those games. Having taken on so many elite teams already, the FT isn't going to be intimidated here. While the Pack are certainly tough, Washington is 6-3-1 ATS its last 10 against teams with a winning record. The last three meetings have seen Washington go 2-1. The lone GB victory was by only five points. Expect Washington to give the Pack all they can handle again, with a great shot at the outright upset.

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Arizona checks in with an perfect record. The Cardinals have indeed been playing well. Playing at home, the Browns are favored for good reason though. The Browns have only played two home games and they won both by double-digits. The 49'ers gave the Cards all they could handle last week. Arizona was at home and was against a team which was playing without its #1 QB. I had a big play on the 'under' so I was happy that the Cards did play excellent defense. The offense managed only 17 points though. Now, they're on the road against a far more formidable opponent. This will already be the Cards' fourth road game through the first six weeks. That's a very tough schedule. While they've obviously done a great job, I believe it'll catch up to them here. The Browns are already 2-0 ATS when the O/U line was 49.5 or higher. Going back further finds them at 5-2 ATS their last seven in that situation and 10-5 ATS their last 15. While both teams are dealing with some injuries, the cards are also dealing with some Covid issues. Look for the Browns to hand them their first loss, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. The Colts got on track last week. Their first win under their belts, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. Despite their 1-3 start, the Colts are very much alive in the AFC South still. Houston and Jacksonville are a combined 1-9. That said, they really need to avoid falling too much further behind the 3-2 Titans. The Ravens beat the Colts by 14 last season. However, a look at the stats shows that the Colts were right there with them. In fact, the Colts had more first downs, more rushing yards and significantly more passing yards. Turnovers were the difference, including a 65-yard fumble recovery TD. The Colts had the lead at halftime though and I believe that they're fully capable of battling the Ravens the entire way tonight. Note that Wentz is getting healthier for the Colts and had a full week of practice. He was 24 of 32 last week with two TDs and zero interceptions. Meanwhile, the defense allowed only 13 first downs and 203 total yards, many of those coming in the fourth quarter. The line has climbed and I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. Many are probably expecting this one to be a rout. I believe that a banged-up Titans team is walking into a hornet's nest though. As Vrabel noted: "It's tough to go on the road and win, records don't mean anything. We have to show up ready to play ..." The Jets are playing better defense than many realize. Vrabel also added: "The Jets have one of the best defensive fronts we'll face this year." Tannehill added: "They get after the quarterback. They have size, they have quickness, they have strength. Those guys are coming to play." The Titans' lone road game was decided by a field goal. They're off a divisional win and they've got another divisional game on deck. Look for them to have their hands full the entire way, falling to 5-8 ATS their last 13, when off two or more consecutive wins. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the home team has had recent success in this series, I feel that the value lies with the visitors in this one. It's early but both teams are dealing with some significant injuries. That said, I'm not sold on the Dallas defense and I like what I'm seeing from the Eagles. They crushed the Falcons and nearly beat the 49'ers. Note that they're 8-4 ATS the past 12 times that they played a game with a line ranging from +3.5 to +9.5 points. The Cowboys, who have been dismal as favorites since last year, have seen each of their first two games decided by a field goal. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on the NY GIANTS. Both these teams are 0-2. History tells us that 0-2 teams rarely make the playoffs. From 1990 to 2019, only 12% of 0-2 teams made the playoffs. Last season, 0-2 teams were 0-fer-11, in terms of making the playoffs. These teams were both among them. This year, with the addition of a 17th game and an expanded bracket, it's possible that an 0-2 team (or teams) will make it. That said, the Falcons know it probably won't be them. They played better than the final score indicated last week but still made mistakes and lost by 23 points. Their -49 point differential is the worst in the entire league. Knowing that the three teams ahead of them in the division are already a combined 5-1 figures to be disheartening. Playing in the NFC East, where every team already has a loss, the Giants have considerably more hope. Remember, Washington won the division with a 7-9 record last season. That extra optimism should serve them well here. Importantly, I believe that they match up very well against the Falcons. The Giants are averaging six yards per play, the Falcons are averaging 4.7 ypp. Note that Atlanta corner A.J. Terrell left the last game with a concussion, which is a big blow to the secondary. Homefield also works in New York's favor. Additionally, I like the fact that the Giants have had a couple of extra day's worth of rest and preparation time, due to playing on Thursday last week. With the Falcons just 4-13 ATS the past 17 times that they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3, I'm laying the short number with the home team. 

I'm playing on GB. As you probably saw, or heard, the Packers got hammered by the Saints in their opener. The Lions showed a little more life; they still lost but rallied from a big deficit to earn a backdoor cover. We know that the Packers have been the much better team for many years. That's very unlikely to change this season. The big question is, how will they react to the Week 1 beating? History suggests that they'll "bounce back big." The Packers were money off an ATS loss last season. They're also a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times that they had scored 15 or fewer points in their previous game. After scoring 10 points against Tampa last October, the Pack bounced back and scored 35 the next game, a 35-20 blowout win at Houston. Prior to that, after the 49'ers held them to eight points, the Pack responded with a 31-13 destruction of the Giants. A few weeks earlier, they had managed only 11 points against the Chargers. They immediately bounced back with a win and cover at Carolina. You get the idea. The "rebuilding" Lions are the perfect opponent to "bounce back" against. These teams met here exactly one year ago, to the day. The Packers doubled Detroit in that 9/20/20 game, a 42-21 rout. History repeats itself tonight. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. (First Half) The Titans were embarrassed by their Week 1 effort. They're going to come out swinging right from the opening kickoff. Note that they're 7-0 SU the past seven times that they were off a double-digit loss; four of those wins were on the road, too. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 1-5 ATS their last six, when off an ATS win. These teams have met three times since 2010. All three meetings were within a field goal at halftime. Scores were 9-7, 10-7 and 7-7. We're working with more than a field goal and I expect this one to also be close, at the break. 

I'm playing on KC. Talk about a dream matchup. Brady, considered by many to be the greatest of all-time, against Mahomes, arguably the greatest right now. With all due respect to Brady, I do believe that Mahomes is "currently" the better QB. He plays at a different level and does things that other QBs simply can't do. He doesn't get phased either. Unflappable. You saw them turn the ball over and fall behind early against Buffalo in the Conf. Championship game. Mahomes didn't blink. He calmly led them back. Remember last year's playoffs? The Chiefs were behind by double-digits EVERY game. Yet, they went on to win the Super Bowl. That includes the game against the Texans where they down 24-0. They won 51-31. While I don't expect the Chiefs to fall behind by double-digits in this one, its a comfortable feeling knowing that Mahomes is never out of it. 

Though Arians got the better of a young Matt LaFleur in the NFC title game, I believe that Andy Reid gives the Chiefs a coaching advantage. I firmly believe that he's a better coach than he was earlier in his career. Here's an excerpt of what I said about Reid prior to last year's SB: "... Sometimes you need to lose, before you can win. Andy Reid has felt the pain of losing. Of coming so close to winning it all, only to come up short. Recall the 24-21 Super Bowl loss by Reid and the McNabb led Eagles team in 2005. McNabb was among the first to congratulate Reid, stating 'thats my coach, best I ever had.' Indeed, most of his players, past and present, love Reid. I believe he's a better coach than he used to be. That he's learned from his failures. The Chiefs, as a team, have had a small taste of the pain that Reid knows all too well. Recall how close they were to reaching the Super Bowl, only to come up short, last season. They've felt what its like to lose and they know how hard it is to get here. Now, they've taken the next step and I believe they're ready to seal the deal. With all due respect to McNabb, who was a great QB in his own right, Mahomes is playing a different level. He can calmly pick defenses apart, beating them short or long. If thats not there, he beats you with his legs. In four playoff games, he's got 11 TDs and 0 interceptions. We've seen the Chiefs show the ability to come back. They fell behind against the Titans last game, no problem. Down 24-0 against the Texans. Whatever. They rallied to crush them. Sure, the 49ers ran all over the Packers. Henry ran all over everyone though and the Chiefs stopped him. While I obvsiously, respect the 49er defense, I feel that its Andy Reid's time ..."

Mahomes outplayed Brady here back in November. I expect him to do so again, the Chiefs hoisting the trophy for the second straight year, while covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on KC. The Browns were able to beat up on the Steelers. However, the Chiefs are an entirely different animal. The Chiefs score more points than the Browns and they allow less. They're experienced in the playoffs, well coached and they're well-rested. Mahomes plays the game at another level. This will already be the Browns' fourth road game since 12/20. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been home since Christmas. While the Browns are 1-5 ATS their last six against teams from the AFC West, the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) their last six against teams from the AFC North. The Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 SU the past five times that they were off a bye and they're 4-1 ATS their last five playoff games. Mahomes rarely makes mistakes and its going to take a near perfect game to beat him. I don't believe that the Browns are up for the task. KC wins by double-digits. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. Both these teams are hungry to take the "next step." I believe that it'll be the Bills who do so. Lamar Jackson certainly does some special things on the field. However, he's also liable to make mistakes. More so, at least, than Josh Allen. Lamar completed 64% of his passes this season, while Allen completed 69% of his. While he didn't fare well against Baltimore last year, Allen has come a long way since then. Indeed, Allen threw for a whopping 4500+ yards with 37 TDs against 10 interceptions. Jackson had an almost identical number (nine) of INT's with roughly 1800 fewer yards and 11 less TD passes. All Allen did last week was to become the youngest QB in NFL history to complete 70% of his passes, in a playoff game, while throwing for more than 300 yards. Not only did he throw for 326 yards, he ran for another 54 and a TD. Yeah, he can do that, too. While it may not be talked about much, I believe that the schedule gives the Bills and advantage. This will be the Ravens' third straight road game and they're playing on a short week. The Bills play with one extra day in between games (they played Saturday last week, while Baltimore played Sunday) and they're playing their third straight at home. The Bills are 7-1 ATS their last eight, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. With Allen getting the better of Jackson, expect them to improve on those stats Saturday evening. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Its true that the Bears "backed into" the playoffs. I'm not concerned about that though. They're here. While the betting public isn't giving them a chance, the Bears believe that they belong. Remember, the Saints beat them by only three (in OT) in the regular season. The Bears will play without any pressure. This is a Chicago team and offensive line which protects its QB and which opens up holes for its running backs. Thats the type of formula that can often be successful in the playoffs. While they struggled to run the ball early, the Bears have rushed for more than 100 yards in six straight games. They've also allowed only one sack in their past three games. With an O/U line in the high 40s, note that Chicago is 4-1 ATS its past five, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 45 to 49.5 range. Look for them to give the Saints all they can handle. 

I'm playing on the NEW YORK GIANTS. Only in 2020 would these teams still be alive for the playoffs. Yet, thats the situation. If Washington were to somehow lose on Sunday night, which is entirely possible, the winner of this game goes to the playoffs. I successfully played against the Giants in their very first game of the season, a loss against the Steelers. At the time, I stated the following: "....With quite a few years in the Patriots' organization and coming highly recommended from Belichick, its entirely possible that Joe Judge will go on to have a successful head coaching career. However, before that ever happens, I expect him to receive an unfriendly welcome to the head coaching fraternity by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Over the past few months, Judge has had to do a lot of things for the first time. He and the Giants very likely would have benefitted from the chance to get to know each other better over a few preseason games. Tomlin, on the other hand, knows his team well ..." Unsurprisingly, Judge and co. did go through some growing pains this season. However, fate has them still playing a meaningful game and now he's had plenty of time to get to know his team. While they had to face some tough teams down the stretch, the Giants are less than a month removed from winning outright at Seattle. Thats arguably a more impressive feat than anything Dallas has accomplished. Speaking of Dallas, the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were road favorites of three or less. All four losses came outright. Though I like the Giants to also win this one outright, in what could be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. Nearly every site, analyst or person that I've looked at is predicting a Buffalo blowout. Yes, the Bills have been the better team. Yes, the Patriots are dealing with injuries. Yes, the Pats will also be home for the playoffs. Their reign is over. I believe thats exactly what will make them so dangerous tonight though. This is still their house and this is one final chance to "end the era" on a high note, reminding everyone that it wasn't just Brady that made this team so good, for so long. While they've struggled on the road, the Pats have remained tough at home. They've only played two home games since the start of November. Those games were against Arizona and Baltimore, both capable opponents, and the Pats beat both of them. They've only been beaten by six points once here all season. Even while struggling, the Pats have still only given up 63 points their past four games, an average of less than 16 ppg. The earlier meeting was decided by three points. If the Bills do manage to win here, I certainly don't expect it to be "easy." Grab the points. 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY. Usually, the Packers are a "popular" team. However, the Titans are kind of the 'flavor of the week' these days, so that's allowed this line to come down lower than it normally would be. Indeed, with the Pack off b2b ATS losses and the Titans off b2b ATS wins, we're getting excellent value with the Rodgers and co. While the Pack may not have covered, they still won each of their last two games by seven or more points. In fact, 10 of their 11 wins have come by at least seven points and ALL 11 of them have come by a minimum of four points. (Three of Tennessee's four losses came by six or more and ALL of them came by at least a field goal.) While Henry is a load, the Packers run defense is improved from last season. I expect them to do a relatively good job at slowing down the Titans' big back. On the other hand, Rodgers should have a field day against a Titan pass defense that ranks among the worst in the league. The Pack, who are trying to lock down the #1 seed in the NFC, are 19-4 SU at home the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While their chances of making the playoffs are indeed slim, the Vikings aren't mathematically elmiminated yet. (They need to win both their games and get some help.) I expect their very best effort on Christmas Day. The Vikings have an offense capable of staying with the Saints. They've scored at least 27 points in four of their past five games. The Saints only recent win by more than five points came against a Denver team which was missing all of its quarterbacks. The Saints are just 2-5 ATS the past seven times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. They're also only 5-11 ATS the past 16 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were off a division loss and 6-0 ATS the past six times that they were off b2b losses. Grab the points.

I'm playing on DENVER. The Bills are having a great season and they're off an impressive win over the Steelers, on Sunday night. Everyone saw that nationally televised game. That's led to many jumping on the Buffalo bandwagon which, in turn, has created excellent value with the Broncos. The big win over Buffalo also may well have the Bills patting themselves on the back a bit. Now, they play a road game in altitude, on a short week. Its also important to note that Bills have a game against New England on deck. Last week, when playing against the Saints in their loss against the Eagles, I noted that the Saints had a huge game against the Chiefs on deck. For them, there was no bigger possible game to look ahead to then a date with the defending world champs. For Buffalo, however, a date with the 11-time defending AFC East champs is arguably an even bigger game to look ahead to. Even though the Patriot reign on top of the division will come to an end, a game against them is still a big deal for Buffalo. Yes, the Bills can clinch the AFC East with a win (or Miami loss) this week. However, there's still plenty of time for that, so there shouldn't be any absolute urgency. As for the Broncos, they're off one of their best games of the season, a 32-27 win at Carolina. Before that, they lost by only six, at KC. The last time that Lock started a home game, the Broncos beat Miami. Speaking of Lock, he was 21 of 27 last week, throwing for four TDs and 0 INTs. His 149.5 passer rating was third best (only Elway and Manning were better) in franchise history. With a chance to play a home game in front of a National audience and not wanting the Bills to clinch a playoff berth in their building, I say that Lock and the Broncos rise to the occasion and give their guests all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Browns have definitely gotten better since the Ravens hammered them earlier in the season. However, I don't feel that they're improved enough to take the next step and to beat the Ravens. When healthy, Baltimore, has handled teams not named KC or Pittsburgh. I mention that as the Ravens are now mostly healthy after having been hit hard by Covid-restrictions. Speaking of "missing players," you won't hear much about it, but the Browns will be without their top cornerback (Ward) for this one.  I believe that his absence hurts them. The Ravens were 7-1 in the final four weeks of the reg. season the past two seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats Monday night, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Saints have been on quite the run. I believe that it comes to an end Sunday though. The Eagles are a dangerous and desperate team. Amazingly, they're still alive. But this is absolutely must win time. The Rams were the only team to beat the Eagles by more than six points, at Philadelphia, all season. And that was way back in September. This, despite the Eagles hosting the likes of Seattle and Baltimore. The Saints are playing their third straight on the road, something you don't see too often. They've also got a showdown with the defending Super Bowl champs on deck. So, if there's ever a time to look ahead to a game, this is it. The Eagles have been great in the final four weeks of the regular season two years in a row, winning seven of those eight games. Expect them to give their potentially road-weary guests all that they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. I know some of you are probably thinking, "The Jets?" Yes, I know, we're talking about the Jets. I know that picking a winless team for my "GOY" won't make me popular. I'm not worried about that though. Only about cashing a ticket and I love how this one sets up for the home team. The Jets defense is playing hard. The offense, admittedly, has struggled. However, the pieces are back and I believe that this will be a defense that they will have success against. Keep in mind that the Raiders are off a 43-6 loss.. They've allowed 78 points the past two games. Gruden knows the Jets will be tough. He had this to say Monday, after the Sunday beating by the Falcons: "...We're still really young. We are missing some key players. I'm not going to worry about anything down the road except the Jets. And if you watched the Jets play yesterday, they're a handful. They're going to be hard to move the ball on. Gregg Williams and this defense give people problems, we've got to take better care of the ball, we've got to play better collectively on defense and we've got to make some timely plays in the kicking game. This will be a fistfight no doubt about it. I've got a lot of respect for the way the Jets are competing ..." The Jets defense was especially stingy in the second half last week, forcing two turnovers and three punts. Darnold, now with all his receivers, has a game under his belt. He's highly motivated for a better performance and I believe that the team is highly motivated for that first victory. I think they're catching the Raiders at the right time and I expect them to take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at getting that elusive first win. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Broncos are obviously in a tough spot with their QB situation. That said, they're off a momentum-building win, their defense and running game getting it done. The Denver secondary is very good and they were getting plenty of pressure on the QB last week. They also held the Dolphins to just 56 yards on the ground. They won't have to contend with Brees and I believe that they could easily catch the Saints looking past them. New Orleans is just 2-4 ATS the past six times it was favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. Grab the points and expect the Broncos to come ready to play. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. With Bridgewater expected to play against his former team, this line came down from its opener. I believe thats providing plenty of value with what I believe to be the superior team. Note that the Vikings are a profitable 30-17-1 ATS (34-14 SU) over the years, as a home favorite of three or less. I believe this line move is an over-reaction to last week's results. Yes, the Panthers looked good. However, their win came against the Lions. Before that, they'd lost four straight. Likewise, before last week's loss, the Vikings had won three straight. The Vikings convert very well when they get into the red zone. They also average more yards per play than any team in the league. Additionally, they've arguably got more to play for. Lay the small number and expect the Panthers to be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. Both these teams came through for me in their last game. I won with the Rams when they beat the Seahawks and I won with the Bucs when they beat Carolina. So, I'm aware that both looked very good. Playing at home, I expect the Bucs to be the team which keeps on rolling this week. While I really respect the Rams, I believe that they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. Yes, Tampa bounced back with a big win last week. However, that wasn't on "primetime." The Bucs still have a bad taste in their mouths after getting smacked around by the Saints on Sunday night football. I did successfully play against Tampa in Brady's MNF debut as a Buc. That was against the Giants though and it was a case of the situation favoring NY and the Bucs laying too many points. Then, there was the Week 5 game where Brady forgot what down it was at the end of the game. My point is, that the Bucs haven't exactly shined in primetime and that I expect that to be a motivating factor for them in this one. This is a chance to make people forget, a convincing win tonight and everything is forgotten. Of course, they're also chasing New Orleans in the division and can't afford to fall further behind. The Bucs are 4-1-1 ATS (5-1 SU) their last six, as favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. I really liked the way that they bounced last week and I expect them to follow it up with a "statement win" tonight. 

I'm playing on DENVER. Off a few big wins and with a couple of winnable games (Jets, Bengals) on deck, I believe that this will prove to be a letdown spot for the Dolphins. Yes, they've been winning but the stats show that they've been somewhat fortunate to be doing so. I don't think they're ready to go on the road and defeat what figures to be a desperate Denver team. Not only that, the Dolphins are being asked to lay points. Its possible that Drew Lock's ribs will force him to the bench. That's not necessarily a bad thing though, as the offense could use a spark. You may recall Rypien leading the Broncos to a win on Thursday night football earlier. A look at the yards for/against for both teams shows the gap isn't nearly what the records suggest. Not only does Denver average more passing yards than Miami, the Broncos also average more rushing yards. Additionally, the Broncos allow fewer total yards on defense. I'll grab the points but I'm expecting the outright win. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. While I've played against the Seahawks in each of their last two games, I like them to bounce back here. For the first time in awhile, the Hawks aren't coming off a flight through different time zones. I've pointed out that they've been going back and forth from from coast to coast for awhile now. While it may be a short week, they're finally staying in the Pacific time zone for consecutive games. Speaking of the short week, without much time in between games, I feel that homefield will provide Seattle with a big edge. Note that Arizona has played three straight at home and before that it played road games against the Jets and Cowboys, a pair of teams who are a combined 2-16. Their previous road game was at Carolina and the Cards lost by double-digits. Obviously, this is a much tougher venue. The Hawks are 6-1 SU and 4-1-2 ATS their past seven, when off a division loss. During that span, they were also 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS when off b2b SU losses. Wilson and co. haven't forgotten the Cards' comeback against them last month. Tonight, they get some payback, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Talk about no respect. The Bears have the better record. They're playing at home. They've had their way with the Vikes. Cousins never wins on MNF. Yet, the Vikes are favored? Some will suspect a "trap" and think the Vikes are the way to go. There's no trap though. Its just a matter of the books needing to balance the action and they know that the betting public is really down on Chicago. I've had success both playing on and playing against the Bears. In this case, that public sentiment has provided us with excellent value and I believe they're absolutely in a "play on" spot. Sure, Cousins wants to finally win a Monday night game. However, the Bears want the game every bit as much and they typically do a great job in shutting down Cousins. The Bears have also done a great job at slowing down Cook. Indeed, Chicago is 4-0 its past four against the Vikings, 3-0 since Cousins took over. The Vikes have managed a mere 29 points in those three games combined, Cook averaging only 29 ypg. Cousins will eventually get his MNF win. Just not this week. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on DENVER for the first half. The Broncos have gotten off to some slow starts and that's led to them having to play from behind. (In three straight weeks, they've been behind by double-digits by halftime.) They're determined to avoid that happening again. QB Lock commented: ''There's a lot of football left and we just have to hit our stride earlier in games.'' The Broncos secondary figures to get a boost as starting corners Bouye and Callahan are expected back. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were off two or more consecutive wins, 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were off a divisional win. Expect them to have their hands full right from the get go and don't be surprised when the Broncos start fast and take a lead into the lockerroom. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Dolphins are off an "impressive" win over the Rams, the "Tagovailo era" starting on the right foot. However, that was at home and they were catching LA having gone back and forth across the country and playing its third road game in four weeks. Also, while earning a victory was indeed impressive, a look at the stats shows that the Miami offense actually managed only 145 total yards. That was the fewest number of yards, by a team which won by double-digits, since way back in 2006. On the other side, the Dolphins gave up 471 yards. No, thats not a misprint. The Dolphins were outgained by a 471 to 145 margin. Needless to say, thats not a recipe for success. Off three straight wins, most recently a big comeback win against Seattle, Arizona is playing great. The Cards know they can't afford to take their foot off the gast though. Not in the ultra competitive NFC West. Prior to the narrow win over the previously undefeated Seahawks, Arizona had won its previous two games by a combined score of 68-20. The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU) the past seven times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. Lay the small number and expect the superior team to pull away for a double-digit win.

I'm playing on NYG. I like how this one sets up for the Giants. While they came up short, the Giants played well (and covered) against the Eagles. They easily could have won that game. Now, they play with extra rest - another Nationally televised game with a chance to show the world that they're not as bad as their record suggests. Also, remember, with the NFC East having such a down year, the Giants are still very much alive in the race for the division. That said, they really need this one. The Bucs, on the other hand, are off a big game at Vegas. Before that, Brady had the 1-on-1 showdown vs. Rodgers and the Packers. Next up, he's got a date with Brees and the Saints. That said, it may be natural for the Bucs to have a slight letdown and/or already be looking past the lowly Giants. The Giants have now seen three straight games decided by three or fewer points and each of their past four games has been decided by single digits. While I respect the Bucs, I believe they're getting a bit over-valued and I'm grabbing the points with what I expect to be a highly motivated home underdog. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. Despite still dealing with major injuries, the 49'ers have managed to win big, each of the past two weeks. However, this week, they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. After blowing last week's game at Arizona, Wilson and the Seahawks are going to be in an angry mood. Note that Seattle is 5-1 SU And 3-1-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a division loss. The 49ers, 4-9-1 ATS their past 14 divisional games, played on the East Coast last week and are now playing the second of b2b road games. With an O/U line in the 50s, note that SF is 3-6 ATS its last nine, when the O/U line was 49.5 or greater. During that span, Seattle was 7-2 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. While both teams are very well-coached, Wilson has been playing at a different level this season. Off a loss, he'll bounce back and make the difference. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Panthers won when these teams played earlier. In what figures to be a close game, I like getting points with revenge-minded Atlanta in Thursday's rematch. While the Falcons may not be winning, they're sure not quitting. They lost their last game by a single point, after beating Minnesota by a 40-23 score the previous week. Five of their six losses came by a TD or less, three of those came by just six combined points. Likewise, Carolina has also been playing close games. The Panthers lost by three last week. That marked their third straight game decided by seven or fewer points. Five of their seven games overall have been decided by a TD or less. While all the talk will be about whether or not McCaffrey will come back, Carolina's problems are on the other side of the ball. The Panthers' defense was young and thin to begin with and has now suffered several key injuries. I absolutely expect the Atlanta offense to take advantage. The Falcons won 29-3 here last season and 24-10 the season before that. I'll take the points but I expect another outright win for the visitors. 

I'm playing on LA. I successfully played against the Rams last week. However, that wasn't due to lack of respect for the Rams. I just really expected to see a desperate SF team and we did. The Rams are at home now and they didn't have to travel far to get here. Off a loss, they're going to be angry. The Bears, on the other hand, are playing their second straight on the road. Off b2b wins, they may be slightly complacent. Regardless, this is not an easy place to play. The Rams have won both their games here this season and are 15-4 (SU) their last 19 here. Eight of their last nine victories here have come by a minimum of seven points. Having just been embarrassed on National TV, this is an immediate opportunity for them to make amends and show the world that they're better than that. I believe that they are. The Rams are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS their last five, as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Expect them to make a statement, in improving on those numbers on Monday night. 

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. I backed the 49'ers in their win last week, vs. LA. They played an inspired game and knocked off a strong Rams team. Still, lets not forget that their previous game resulted in a 43-17 loss against Miami. While the 49'ers have some key pieces back, this is still a team which is decimated by injuries. Traveling across the country to take on a hostile Patriots team, those injuries will catch up with them. The Pats weren't able to practice properly due to Covid-related issues and that was clearly one of the factors that led to their loss against Denver. Their previous game had resulted in a loss to KC. So, off b2b losses, don't expect them to show their banged-up guests any sympathy. Note that New England is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, off b2b losses. Even with this season's setbacks, the Pats are also still 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS their last 10 October games. This is typically been their time of year and they aren't about to lose three in a row. Not with their former QB (Brady) coming off such a huge game and not with another former QB (Jimmy G) coming to town. Indeed, Belichick is going to be extremely motivated to win this one and he'll make sure that his team feels the same way. While I respect the 49ers, they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO for the first half. Both these teams started the season with perfect 4-0 records. Both stumbled in Week 5. Most have grown so accustomed to seeing the Chiefs win that they think that they can't possibly lose twice in a row. They can, particularly against a dangerous and highly motivated Buffalo team. The perception that the Chiefs can't possibly lose two in a row has helped create plenty of value, particularly in my opinion, for the first half. This is a huge game for the Bills. They're going to be extremely fired up and I expect them to come out flying. Grab the points for the first half and don't be surprised when Buffalo takes a lead into the locker room. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. I successfully played against the Bucs in their last game, a loss at Chicago. However, I like how this one sets up much better. Last game, the Bucs were playing on the road, on a short week. They were also laying more than a field goal. This game sets up much differently. This time, the Bucs are getting points. This time, they're at home. This time, they're playing with extra rest. I also like that Brady was embarrassed in losing. He's going to be determined to bounce back with a big effort and I expect him to do exactly that. (Obviously, both QBs want to beat the other. They're 1-1 in h2h matchups, each winning on his homefield.) Both teams want it, too. Still, this game arguably means more to Brady, Arians and the Bucs. Off their only previous loss, the Bucs responded with a double-digit win. I expect them to bounce back once again, handing the Pack their first loss of the season. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The Saints have a lot going for them, in my opinion. In addition to being very tough to beat at home, they're arguably better on both sides of the ball. Sean Payton gives them an edge in the coaching department. They're still very much alive in the playoff race. The Chargers are not. Of course, there's also a little score to settle. This will likely be the last time that Brees gets to face the Chargers. It may seem like he's been a Saint forever but it was the Chargers who drafted him and then essentially let him go. Brees recently noted: "When I was drafted by the Chargers back in ’01, it was my hope, my plan, to be the franchise quarterback there for my whole career." Note that Brees and the Saints are a perfect 3-0 against the Chargers. While he won't have Thomas to throw to, I say that Brees continues to haunt his old team one final time, the Saints picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Eagles earned a hard-fought win at SF, their first victory of the season. While the Steelers represent a different type of challenge, monkey off their back, I expect the Eagles to carry the positive momentum forward. Just like that, the Eagles are in first place in the NFC East. Really, they're a better team than their record indicates. Due to that record, the Eagles find themselves as a similar sized underdog as last week, a role they thrived in. Its also a lot of points to ask the Steelers to win by. Consider that Philadelphia's last two games have been decided by a combined five points and that Pittsburgh's last two games were both decided by seven points or less. The Steelers have been nothing special (16-22 ATS) over the years, when coming off a bye. While they haven't met since 2016, the Eagles have won two of the last three meetings between these instate rivals and the lone loss (16-14 in 2012) was by just two points. Grab the points and expect another close one. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While I succesfully played against the Bears on Sunday, I like their chances of bouncing back Thursday night. Last week, the Bears were dealing with a Colts defense which ranks #1 in the league in points allowed and #1 in the league in terms of yards allowed. The Bucs haven't been as stingy. While the Colts allow 14 ppg, the Bucs allow 23. The Bears, themselves, allow just 20.3. I like that the Bears are playing at home for the second straight week. Even if the distance isn't that great, traveling while playing on a short week, in 2020, is less than ideal. Prior to Sunday's loss, the Bears had seen all three of their games decided by less than five points. Don't be surprised when this one also comes down to the wire, the Bears with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. As you may have heard, the 49ers have been hit extremely hard by injuries. They were able to overcome those injury issues against the Giants and Jets. However, now they're facing a winless and desperate Eagle team, one which comes in badly in need of a victory. Yes, Philadelphia is also dealing with some injuries. However, those injuries aren't as bad or as numerous as SF's injuries. Keep in mind that the 49ers played without 10 starters last week. While they may have other areas of concern, the Eagles' defensive line is excellent. They were all over Burrow (8 sacks, 18 QB hits) last week and will be all over the QB again here. On the other side of the ball, turnovers have hurt. I expect them to clean that up here. The 49ers were fortunate to face the two NY teams when they did. Expect them to have their hands full Sunday night. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Both teams are 0-2. Both will be hungry for a win. I expect the Eagles to be a little more desperate though and I believe that they bring more to the table. Obviously, Burrow and the Bengals want their first win. Expectations are pretty low in Cincinnati though. Nobody will be too upset if it takes a couple of years for Burrow and the new look team to start winning. Thats not the case for the Eagles though; this is a team which expects to win now. They're going to come in angry and I expect Burrow and co. to suffer the consequences. While they're highly motivated, the Eagles aren't pushing the panic button. Wentz had this to say: "We're not panicking. The sky is not falling. We have the potential with the pieces we have on this offense to be elite, to be great and we're excited to come out (next week) and start showing it.'' The Eagles are a resilient team, having dealt with a lot in recent seasons. Sanders noted: "...it's a long season and we're going to have opportunities. It takes resiliency and that's the type of team we have.'' Expect the resilient Eagles to bounce back, securing their first win and picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I like how this one sets up for the Texans and believe that they're offering plenty of value. Everyone just saw the Texans get beaten up by the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Ravens just blew out the Browns. So, many are down on the Texans and high on the Ravens. Thats led to generous points with the Texans as a home underdog. Yes, the Ravens are good. But, its important not to over-react to one game. The Texans are better than they showed. They generated some momentum towards the end of the KC game and I expect them to carry it into this one. I really like that they've had an extra couple of days, due to having played on Thursday. This early in the season, after not having had a preseason, I believe that extra rest and preparation time will prove significant. While not having Hopkins hurts, Watson still has some weapons including Fuller who caught 8 of 10 for more than 100 yards. David Johnson showed promise out of the backfield (more than 100 total yards and a TD) and figures to be a big upgrade at running back. The Texans haven't forgotten that the Ravens hammered them last season, at Baltimore. They're coming in highly motivated. While I absolutely like their chances of the outright win, I expect their best effort to lead to AT LEAST a cover on Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I really like how this one sets up for the Browns. Both teams lost their opener. However, the Browns were crushed by Baltimore while Cincy lost a close one vs. the Chargers. That may have many thinking that the Bengals played better. However, the fashion that they lost that one (outscored 10-0 in 4th) figures to be harder to bounce back from (more deflating) than the Browns' blowout loss. Indeed, the Browns were embarrassed and they will be absolutely determined to bounce back and prove to the world that they aren't a joke. Remember, this is a team which has been stockpiling talent on both sides of the ball for years now. As Baker Mayfield noted: "Sometimes a wake-up call is good for everybody. A punch in the mouth and that’s how we should take it." Also, keep in mind that the Browns were on the road against a very tough Baltimore team last week while the Bengals played at home. Note that the Bengals are just 2-13 SU their last 15 on the road. The Browns have had success on Thursdays, going 8-4 ATS their last 12 and 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons. That includes a 21-7 win over the Steelers last season. Expect them to bounce back with an important win and cover. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. With quite a few years in the Patriots' organization and coming highly recommended from Belichick, its entirely possible that Joe Judge will go on to have a successful head coaching career. However, before that ever happens, I expect him to receive an unfriendly welcome to the head coaching fraternity by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Over the past few months, Judge has had to do a lot of things for the first time. He and the Giants very likely would have benefitted from the chance to get to know each other better over a few preseason games. Tomlin, on the other hand, knows his team well. They got horrible QB play last year and were still competitive. Now, the Steelers get Rothlisberger back and he'll surely be an improvement. Meanwhile, the defense is expected to rank among the league's best. Despite no preseason games, NY still managed to lose some starters to injury. The Giants' secondary was already thin and they lost Xavier McKinney. Though a rookie, he was expected to be their starting free safety. Meanwhile, linebacker David Mayo (143 tackles last year) also went down. While the Giants are projected to win six games this season, the Steelers O/U line is 9.5. Expect Tomlin's team to get the first of those Monday night, covering the relatively small number along the way.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. This is the first time in the Vikings' 60-year history that they will open a season at home, against Green Bay. These teams have won 10 of the past 12 division titles and 14 of the past 18. If projected win totals mean anything, it'll likely be one or the other, once again. In other words, this is a big game. The Packers took both last season's meetings and went on to win the division title. The Vikings know they can't afford to let that happen again; I expect them to have the edge in Sunday afternoon's season opener. While Rodgers has been an elite QB for a long time, he's nearly 37 and can only do so much with a fairly limited supporting cast. The Vikings do have some new faces but the key contributors are back. While he doesn't have the big name of Rodgers, Cousins is off a strong year, finishing with a 107.4 passer rating. He threw for 3600+ yards with 26 TDs against six INTs. Dalvin Cook will play a prominent role and he's reportedly looked great in camp. I believe Minnesota has a slight edge on defense. While it should be a good game, I say the Vikes get the win and cover. 

I'm playing on KC. The Titans have certainly been impressive. First, they knocked off New England, a top defensive team. Next, they crushed Baltimore, a top offensive team. Obviously, Henry has been an absolute beast. I believe that the Chiefs are a different animal though. Mahomes has been here before and he's peaking at the right time. The Chiefs fell behind 24-0 out of the gate last week and they didn't even bat an eye. By halftime, they were up by four. By the end of the game, they won by 20. Yes, they ended the game on a 51-7 run. Thats absolutely dominant. The Titans haven't fallen behind. So, thats allowed them to keep running Henry the entire game. However, when the Chiefs get up double-digits, as I expect them to do, its going to be a lot harder for the Titans to stick with the running game. While both teams played last week, the Chiefs played at home, while the Titans were on the road. The previous week, the Chiefs had a much-needed bye while the Titans were again on the road. That extra rest and not having to play on the road will help the Chiefs here. Indeed, this is the Titans fourth road game in four weeks. That can and will take a toll. KC hasn't been on the road since before Christmas. The Titans are 0-2 ATS when off a double-digit win as an underdog. Going back further finds them at 6-17-3 ATS in that situation. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS as home favorites. Yes, the Titans beat them earlier. But the Chiefs are also 3-0 SU/ATS their last three in the revenge role, 7-3 SU/ATS their last 10. They're 15-5-1 ATS off a double-digit win. Expect another double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY. I have a lot of respect for Russell Wilson. Pete Carroll, too. However, I expect their season to come to an end on Sunday. The Hawks lost a heartbreaker vs the 49ers two weeks ago, a game that came down to the final play. Last week, they left in all on the field, at Philly. Playing back-to-back road games can be tough. While they were giving it everything they had, the Pack were resting. That extra rest, combined with homefield advantage, will prove the difference here. The Pack were 7-1 at home (5-0 L5) this season and six of those seven wins, including each of the past four, came by more than four points. The Hawks defense came up big last week, holding the Eagles (minus Carson Wentz for most of it) to nine points. They're only 4-8 ATS the past dozen times that they allowed 14 or fewer points in their previous game though. The Pack are 9-4 ATS (12-1 SU) the past 13 times that they were home favorites of seven or less. Expect them to improve on those stats Sunday. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Eagles went on a nice run to get here. However, the fact is that they're still a 9-7 team which got four of its wins against the Giants and Redskins, a pair of teams with a combined 7-25 record. While their known for having a strong homefield advantage, the Seahawks have been excellent on the road. They know they can win here, too. In fact, they did so back in October. Including that 17-9 victory, the Hawks are a dominant 10-1 SU and 8-1-2 ATS the past 11 times that they played a road game with an O/U line ranging from 45.5 to 49. They're also 6-1 ATS their last seven against teams from the NFC East and 8-1 SU their last nine as a road favorite. Off the tough loss to SF in their reg. season finale, note that the Hawks are 5-1-2 ATS (6-2 SU) the past eight time that they were off a home loss. Expect Wilson to lead them to another victory on Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Playing at home, I expect the battle-tested Seahawks to have the advantage. While the 49ers have enjoyed a great season, this is still relatively new territory to them. The Hawks and their rabid fans have been here before. Many times. Russell Wilson is starting to get some credit as being one of the best QBs but he's still under-rated, in my opinion. The signing of Lynch is only going to get the crowd going that much more. Beast Mode is back and the veteran's explosive personality should provide a boost for the entire team. The Hawks are 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were getting points. They're also a perfect 5-0 SU (3-0-2 ATS) the past five times that they were off a division loss. While I like Seattle to win outright, with the last two meetings both decided by a field goal, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Both teams are off impressive wins last week. Playing at home, playing with revenge from the earlier loss at Lambeau, I believe it'll be the Vikings which follow it up with a victory here. While the Packers have actually been outscored by an average of 21.2 to 20.8 on the road, the Vikings are outscoring teams by an average of 27.7 to 14.2 here at Minnesota. Big difference. The Packers have been outgained by an average of 378.3 to 271, in terms of yards per game, when playing on the road. Perfect at home, the Vikes have outgained visiting teams by a 368.3 to 341.7 margin. Again, a big difference. Last year's game at Lambeau was 29-29 but the Vikings won 24-17 when playing here at home. The previous season, they won 23-10 here. The Pack are 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. The Vikes are 9-3 ATS their last 12 as home favorites of seven or less. I believe homefield will again prove significant and I'm laying the relatively small number. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bears lost at Lambeau last week while the Chiefs continued their dominance of Denver. Those results have helped in providing us with strong value with Chicago. Indeed, the Bears have thrived in the home underdog role. They're 7-1 ATS their last eight, when getting points at home, 2-0 SU/ATS this season. Last time they were underdogs here, they beat Dallas outright. Playing their home finale, naturally, they're going to be fired up. I believe they're going to have success moving the ball against the Chiefs' defense and I expect AT LEAST another cover on Sunday night. 

I'm playing on LA. Both these teams have disappointed. While the Raiders actually have the better record, I believe the set up favors the Chargers. Rivers and co. still have plenty of pride. Playing their home finale and also playing with revenge from last month's 26-24 loss at Oakland, they're going to be highly motivated for this one. As for the Raiders, they played their final game at Oakland last week. That wasn't even enough to really motivate them, as stumbling Jacksonville handed the Raiders their fourth straight setback. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined score of 136-49 in those four losses. Ugly. The Chargers are 3-1 ATS the past four times that they attempted to avenge an earlier 'upset' loss. Going back further finds them at 25-13 ATS in that situation. Laying -6 points, the Chargers beat the Raiders 27-10 here last season. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on LA. Two weeks ago, I won with the Rams when they beat up on Seattle. Last week, I successfully played against the Rams, when they got hammered by Dallas. I'm coming right back with them here though. The 49ers also lost. However, they're loss may well take more of a toll on them this week, than LA's loss, due to the nature of it. The Falcons scored 12 points in the final two seconds to stun the 49ers. SF is just 5-10-1 ATS as a favorites the past 2+ seasons, 3-7-1 ATS as a home favorite. During the same span, the Rams are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs. They're playing with 'revenge' from a 20-7 loss at LA and they're 8-4-1 ATS (10-3 SU) in the revenge role the past 2+ seasons, 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) when revenging a loss from a game in which they were favored. Grab the points but don't be surprised when LA wins outright. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Cowboys opened as favorites here but money came in on the Rams and now its LA which is favored. While I respect the Rams, I believe that move is providing us with excellent value on what is going to be an extremely determined Dallas team. Obviously, the Cowboys would love to avenge last year's playoff loss. This game is about more than that though. The Cowboys need to win the NFC East to get the playoffs and the defending division champs know they're going to need this game to accomplish that feat. The Rams know they need this one every bit as much, which is going to make for a good game. Playing at home and playing with extra preparation time (Cowboys are 4-1 SU/ATS their last five, off a Thursday game) is going to give Dallas the edge though. You'll hear a lot about the Cowboys not beating good teams so far this season. That changes here. Backs against the wall, ook for the Cowboys to bounce back with their best effort of the season, improving to 7-1 ATS the past eight times that they'd lost three of their previous four games. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. While I lost with the Jets this past Sunday, I always do my best to wipe the slate clean and look at each game without bias from preivous plays, won or lost. In this case, though it surely didn't help me Sunday as they failed to cover, I like the fact that the Jets eked out the SU win. That showed heart and will provide confidence and positive momentum for this one. They've quietly won four of five and nobody has beaten them by more than 16 since the Pats did so back in October. Of course, the Ravens have looked very impressive all season. A road game against a tough Buffalo team can take a toll though and they're being asked to cover an awful big number here, on a short week. Their last two games have both been decided by seven or less. The Ravens have thrived on the road, at the betting window, but they're actually only 2-4 ATS when listed as the home team. Going back further finds them at an ugly 8-15 ATS in home games, the past 2+ seasons. Look for this one to be closer than many will be expecting and grab the generous points. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Both of these teams have seen better days. The Eagles have dropped three straight, most recently a humiliating loss against lowly Miami. The Giants, meanwhile, haven't won in months. Playing at home, knowing they will face these same Giants at New York in 20 more days, I expect the Eagles to be the team which bounces back. As bad as Eagles' fans might feel, keep in mind that the first two of their three losses came against the Patriots and the Seahawks, a pair of playoff teams capable of meeting in the Super Bowl. Both losses were close. So, in hindsight, a letdown against the Dolphins wasn't that shocking. Here, however, they're facing a hated division rival and there won't be any letdown. The Eagles' defense allows 18 points and 270.5 yards here at home. The Giants, on the other hand, allow 30.8 ppg and 404 ypg on the road. Expect that far superior defense to be the difference, the Eagles bouncing back with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on LA. The Seahawks have obviously been on a very impressive run. I feel that it comes to a temporary halt tonight though. The Rams got embarrassed, on National TV, by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, two weeks ago. Tonight, they get a chance to show the world that they're better than that. They've already bounced back by blowing out Arizona last week, providing some positive momentum here. Note that the Rams are 9-1 SU their last 10, off a division win and 5-0 SU their last five off a divisional win of 21 or more. True, they're up against another special QB in Wilson. Seattle brings out the best in this LA team though. The Rams gave the Hawks all they could handle at Seattle, losing by one. Prior to that, they'd beaten them three straight times. In addition to playing at home, the Rams have the schedule in their favor; the Hawks are playing on a short week. While the Hawks obviously want to win, the Rams need to. As Gurley noted, "we're scratching our way in." Look for them to find a way.

I'm playing on the NEW YORK JETS. The Dolphins already beat the Jets. Last week, they upset the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Jets lost against the previously winless Bengals. Many will look at all that and see this as a no-brainer to take the points. Football is a funny game though; I have the Jets winning by double-digits. Neither offense has been good but the Jets have been slightly better, in terms of ppg. More importantly, they've been much better, in terms of points allowed. The Jets allow 23.3 ppg (20.8 at home) while the Dolphins allow 31.4. Over their past three games, Miami opponents are averaging 36.3 ppg and 425.7 ypg. The Jets, on the other hand, have allowed an average of 14.0 ppg and 236.7 ypg, their last three. The Dolphins are 7-13 ATS their last 20 as road underdogs and that includes a 1-5 ATS mark their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. They're 0-3 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a game they won SU where they were a home underdog of seven or more points. During that span, the Jets were 2-0 ATS when off a loss as a road favorite. Lay the points, its payback time. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. Both these teams are having excellent season. However, the Ravens, thanks to Lamar Jackson's remarkable numbers, seem to be getting a lot more credit/respect than the Bills. Indeed, while the Ravens are 10-2 the Bills are 9-3. Yet, the Bills are nearly a touchdown underdog, at home. Thats too much, in my opinion. The Bills are 4-1 their last five, holding all five of those opponents to 20 or fewer points. The one loss came by just three. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the Bills have had extra time to prepare, as they played on Thansgiving. The Ravens are off an extremely hard fought 3-point win against SF. Expect them to have their hands full once again, the Bills earning AT LEAST a cover and improving to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were home underdogs of seven or fewer points. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Recent meetings between these teams have been at Foxboro. The last two were both very close, New England winning by seven and three points. Now, the Texans get to face them here at Houston. I expect that to make all the difference. In addition to playing at home, I like that the Texans have had some extra time to prepare. Their last game was on a Thursday; they're 2-0 ATS off a Thursday game, the past couple of seasons. Speaking of that Thursday game, I like the fact that the Texans were able to eke out a win. Note that they're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a game where they won but didn't cover. The Texans haven't lost here since September. In what should be another close one, I'll happily take the points. However, I expect the Texans to bring their A game and win outright. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. While I successfully played against the Falcons last game, I believe that a primetime Thanksgiving game, at home, against the Saints, will bring out their best. Indeed, this is as big as it gets for them, as the playoffs are out of the question. Having already won at New Orleans, they know they can play with these guys. That was no fluke either; the Falcons won 26-9, less than three weeks ago. I expect this one to be closer. Games between these teams, here at Atlanta, almost always are. In fact, 10 straight meetings between these teams, here at Atlanta, have been decided by 10 or fewer points. Nine of those 10 were decided by six or less. If you'd been getting +6.5 or +7 with the Falcons in each of those games, you'd be a perfect 10-0. The Saints saw their most recent game decided by a field goal. Look for this one to also come down to the wire, the Falcons bringing their best game and improving to 12-4 ATS their last 16 Thursday games. 

I'm playing on LA. The Ravens have certainly been on an impressive run. However, I feel that the defending NFC champs aren't getting nearly enough respect. The Rams have the weapons on offense but its their defense which has been dominant of late. Since acquiring Jaylen Ramsey, they've held four straight opponents to 17 or less and three of those finished with 10 or less. Ramsey had this to say: "Hopefully, we go out there, we set the tone, we play a good game and we let the world know who the L.A. Rams are." Last time out, LA allowed just seven points. The Rams, 10-2 their last 12 against AFC teams, are 3-1 ATS the last four, after allowing 17 or fewer points in each of their last three games. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 1-3 ATS after allowing nine or less points. The Ravens are also just 1-5 ATS the past six, after covering in four or five of their previous six games. While I like LA to win outright, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on SF. These teams met last October, at Lambeau. The Packers were laying -9.5 points but the 49ers gave them all they could handle. SF took a 24-20 lead into halftime and GB eventually won 33-30, hitting a field goal as time expired. The 49ers have gotten a lot better since then though and now they're playing at home. I expect them to make a statement on National TV, showing the world that they are indeed for real. While Rodgers may be from California, the Pack lost 26-11 the last time that they played in this state. The Pack are just 6-13-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were off an ATS win. The Pack outscore teams by a 21.5 to 19.2 margin on the road, the 49ers outscore teams by a dominant 33.2 to 17.8 margin at home. Lay the points. 

I'm playng on TAMPA. Off six straight losses, the Falcons suddenly caught fire and won big in b2b road games. Now, they find themselves favored for the first time in more than a month. The Falcons are 0-2 ATS when laying points on the season and I expect them to have their hands full against what will be a determined Tampa team. True, the Bucs haven't won for a long time. They're still playing hard though and this is a game they know they can win. While I like the Bucs' chances of winning outright, having more than a field goal to work with could well come in handy, given the recent history between these rivals. The last three meetings have all been decided by five or less, two of them decided by three or less. The Bucs are 8-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after having lost six or seven, of their previous eight games. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. While I won with the Colts last week, I really think that they're in trouble here. Importantly, they're now on the road, instead of at home. In my opinion, thats even more significant than normal when on a short week. The Colts are 2-2 on the road, the Texans 3-1 at home. The Colts won the first meeting, at Indianapolis. However, the Texans were playing their second straight on the road. All the same, the Texans were able to do a great job in slowing down Marlon Mack and the Colts ground game. Speaking of Mack, he's out for this week. That hurts a team which is banged-up at receiver and which relies very heavily on the run. Williams ran well last week to replace Mack but he will find the going much tougher here against a Houston team which rarely allows running backs to find the end zone. The Texans are also without their starting back but I like Hyde as a replacement better than Williams. I also expect Watson to bounce back with a much better performance; in their last two home games the Texans have scored 80 combined points. Look for the Texans to improve to 6-2 ATS the past eight times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. 

I'm playing on LA. I sucessfully played against the Chiefs last week. At the time, I noted that the return of Mahomes wasn't going to fix the Chiefs' issues on defense, particularly against the run. Sure enough, that was the problem. The Titans scored 35 points and Derrick Henry (188 rush yards, 2 TDs) won me my week in Fantasy. The Chargers run the ball differently than the Titans but they too will be able to exploit the Chiefs' soft run defense. In the most recent meeting between these teams, a 29-28 win for the Chargers, LA had double as many yards on the ground, a 119-60 advantage. In fact, the Chargers also even threw for more yards in that game, while holding a solid edge in first downs and time of possession. Chargers coach Anthony Lynn played in Mexico as a player and that experience should prove helpful. Knowing what its like and with the Chargers having extra time off, due to playing on a Thursday last week, Lynn had them train in the high altitude of Colorado Springs for the week, to help prepare for the 7200 feet about sea level they'll deal with in Mexico City. Look for it to prove helpful, the Chargers coming away with AT LEAST the cover on Monday night. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Saints were upset by lowly Atlanta last time out. Many will expect them to immediately bounce back and blow out Tampa. Easier said than done. The Bucs may be just 3-5. However, one of those wins came in their last game and four of those five losses came by seven points or less. (The other was by 11.) In other words, they were right there in every game and the record could easily be better. One of those close losses was at New Orleans in early October. Thats noteworthy as the Bucs are 5-0 ATS the past five times that they were attempting to avenge a same season loss. With the Saints 0-4 ATS their last four, when off a divisional loss, I'm grabbing the points with the revenge-minded Bucs. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Both teams earned impressive close wins last week. The Steelers upset the Rams while the Browns, in Hunts' first game, eked out a win against the Bills. Playing at home with no travel on a short week, more desperate than their guests, I expect the Browns to be the team which follows it up. Needless to say, its been a very disappointing season for Browns' fans. This is still a highly talented team though, one picked by many to go deep into the playoffs. Even if it doesn't ultimately amount to them getting anywhere, a win against the Steelers on National Television will go a long way to ease the suffering of the faithful. Last year, they earned a tie in the game here. This year, Rothlisberger on the bench, the Browns take the next step and knock off the pesky Steelers, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. With Mahomes expected to come back, we're getting extra line value with the Titans. Its not always easy for a team when a star returns though. For one, the star can sometimes be rusty. However, regardless of whether or not thats the case, there can still be a natural letdown, as opposed to the expected boost, when a star comes back. The reality is that the Chiefs were playing really hard for Moore. They beat the Vikings last time out and were right there with the Packers in their previous game. So, QB wasn't really the problem. The Chiefs' weakness, as I see it, is their run defense.  Indeed, KC ranks 28th in rushing yards per attempt and just 29th in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed. Only Cleveland, Cincy and Miami are worse. That spells trouble against a Titan offense with a capable ground game. The Chiefs have seen six of their last seven games decided by seven or fewer points. Meanwhile, all four Titan home games have been decided by seven or fewer points, the last two here both decided by four or less. Speaking of tight games, the last two meetings between these teams were decided by 1 and 2 points. In what could well be another close one, I'm grabbing all the generous points. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. With Barkley seemingly back to full health, many will be quick to back the Giants, getting points at home. Count me out. The Cowboys are favored for good reason. While the Giants allow more than 27 ppg, the Cowboys allow just 17.7. On the other side, the Giants score less than 20 per game while the Cowboys score more than 27. They've beaten the Giants five straight times. Three of those wins came by double-digits, all but one came by at least seven points. Arguably, the gap is bigger now than it has been in the past, too. The Giants have lost four straight. Their last losses came against the likes of Arizona and Detroit. The Cowboys, got back on track by trashing the Eagles 37-10 last time out. Every one of their victories has come by double-digits. In addition to the 27-point win over the Eagles, the Cowboys won by 25 and 10, while beating these same Giants by 18. While the Giants are off a tough loss, the Cowboys are off a bye. They've been money (23-12 ATS L35) in that situation over the years. They're a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they'd lost three of their previous four. Expect them to improve on those stats with another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Patriots have obviously gotten off to a great start. However, I expect them to receive their toughest test of the season yet on Sunday night. The Ravens are 8-4-1 ATS as underdogs the past 2+ seasons, winning six of those outright. Long known for its defense, Baltimore gives nothing away on offense in this matchup. The Ravens have scored 23 or more every game, averaging 30.6. In their three home games, they're averaging 444 yards. Overall, they average 434.9 yards per game. Thats more than the Pats, who average 370.1 yards per game, 340.1 on the road. While the Ravens may be 1-4-1 ATS their last six, their last 5-1 ATS the past six times that they'd failed to cover the spread in four, or five, of their previous six games. Expect AT LEAST another cover here. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. You've probably heard about Garoppolo's impressive record as a starter. Thats only partly him. Football is a team game and the 49ers have been a very good team. Still, this is asking a lot. Here, they're playing on the road, playing on a short week, against a divisional opponent and laying more than a touchdown. They've also got a huge showdown vs. Seattle on deck. Note that the 49ers are just 6-11 ATS the past 17 times that they were road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. During that span, the Cards were 9-6 ATS as home underdogs in the 7.5 to 10 range. The Cards have dominated the 49ers in recent seasons, including five straight wins here at Arizona. With the last three meetings here all having been decided by a field goal, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on KC. While the Packers are off to a nice start, I expect them to have their hands full this evening. The Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 ATS the past four times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range and they're 5-1-1 ATS their last seven as underdogs overall. True, Mahomes remains out. However, I truly believe that they can win with Moore behind center. Moore is a veteran and he is going to relish this opportunity. Moore has a great coach and is surrounded by plenty of weapons. Expect the Chiefs to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover on Sunday night. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. With Matt Ryan out, we're getting a lot of extra point with the Falcons. I feel thats providing excellent value. Matt Schaub has been around for years and knows how to win. Pete Carroll acknowledged as much saying: "They're explosive on offense. They got highlight players that we recognize and know. The running backs, receivers, the tight end, the QB. Matt Schaub is a renowned backup quarterback that has come off the bench for teams for years. He's got a winning record if he's the one that plays. Danny coaching the defense and Bob Sutton, a friend of ours that we know for years from KC and all that and years beyond. I have a lot of respect for what’s going on. I know, just watching the film and watching what we're up against, they're going to cause problems for us...." While the Hawks have indeed thrived on the road, they're off a 30-16 loss and two of their three road games have been decided by four or fewer points. An early game at Atlanta, for this West Coast based team, is not going to be as easy as many will be expecting. The Hawks lost by 16 last time they played here and then the teams played a 3-point game at Atlanta next. Grab the points and expect a motivated effort from the Falcons to bring them to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were off a game where they scored 14 or less.

I'm playing on NEW YORK. While the Patriots have been making it look easy, I expect them to finally receive a test on Monday night. The Jets, who covered at New England a month ago, come in confident. Last time out, they beat Dallas outright, a 24-22 win. Note that the Jets are 2-0 ATS the last couple of times that they were off a win off three or fewer points. During that span, they're also 6-2 ATS when avenging a loss of 14 or more points. Some might be surprised to learn that the Pats are just 6-12 ATS their last 18 as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. Look for them to have their hands full in this one. 

*10 Non-Divisional GOM on Bears. I'm playing on CHICAGO. Naturally, I respect the Saints. They came through big for me two weeks ago against Tampa. Last week, their defense helped me cash an important 'under,' allowing just six points and 226 total yards. Still, this is a very tough spot. Playing the second of b2b road games, I expect the travel and absence of Brees to finally catch up with them. Note that Kamara, currently questionable, appears unlikely to be ready, as he has yet to practice. Either way, the Bears are going to be in a hostile mood after blowing the game against the Raiders. They've had two weeks to prepare for this one. The Bears, who hope to have Trubisky back, are tough at home. Look for them to improve to 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 here. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While the 49ers are off to a fantastic start, I believe that this will prove to be a very tough spot. This is a West-Coast based team, playing an early game, its second straight on the road, while coming off a huge win over a division rival. Off to a perfect start, it'll be easy for the 49ers to start patting themselves on the back a bit. It may not have been overly impressive, but the Skins did get a win last game. That gives them some positive momentum coming in. With a pair of road games on deck, the Skins know they need to take advantage of the scheduling advantage here. They're 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) their last five against the NFC West. Expect them to give their guests all they can handle. 

I'm playing on LA. The Steelers have been good for so long that its hard for many to accept reality; this is currently a bad team. Indeed, the Steelers have been bad on both sides of the ball - and on special teams. Granted, the Chargers haven't been much better. They're working with a lot more though, while also playing at home - and I believe that their season can still be salvaged. Of course, with b2b road games on deck, that requires that the Chargers take care of business here. I expect them to do just that. The Chargers have failed to covers in three of their past four. They're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in that situation (after having failed to cover 3 of previous 4) the past couple of seasons though. During that span, they're also 4-0-1 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 35.5 to 42 range. Expect the Chargers to take advantage of their banged-up and struggling guests, bouncing back with a much-needed, momentum-building double-digit win. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. Every year, some suggest that this will be the year that the Pats take a step back. It never seems to happen. They keep rolling, year after year. Here we are, October 10th and they're already 5-0. Three of the five wins came by more than 16 points, too. Is it really that easy? I don't think so. With all due respect to the Pats, they've faced a pretty soft early schedule. The Steelers, Redskins and Dolphins, the three teams that they beat by more than 16, are a combined 1-13. The Jets, another team they faced, are also 0-4. So, thats four opponents which are a combined 1-17. The only team with a decent record (Buffalo) gave the Pats all they could handle and lost by only six. The Giants are below .500 However, they do at least have a couple of wins under their belt. The Giants faced Buffalo, New England's hardest opponent to date. But, unlike the Pats, the Giants have also faced other winning teams like the Vikings and Cowboys. Off a sub-par performance against Minnesota, I expect them to bounce back with a much better effort here. Note that the Giants are 9-3 ATS their last 12 after scoring 14 or fewer points in their previous game, 6-2 ATS when off a double-digit home loss. I believe that the line is a bit inflated and I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The Bucs were sure impressive last week. Nobody could have imagined them going to LA and dropping 55 points on the Rams. Impressive as that was, its important not to over-react to one game. I feel that has happened here. If the Bucs hadn't been so impressive, they'd be a bigger underdog here. In other words, last week's result has worked in our favor, in terms of line value. (The Saints were -10 for last year's game here and -7 the previous season.) Keep in mind that the Bucs also gave up 40 points. They've now allowed more than 30 in three of their four games. This is also a tough travel and scheduling spot for them. Off the win at the West Coast, they now play an early game in the Eastern Time Zone. Its their second straight road game and third road game in the past four weeks. Last season, when playing the second of b2b road games, the Bucs were 0-3. (One of those b2b spots had a bye in between the games.) Each of those losses came by a minimum of five points - and they didn't have to fly from the West Coast the previous week. The Saints are off a dominant defensive effort against an elite team, holding Dallas to 10 points. While they won that one on the strength of their defense, they won the previous week's game on the strength of their offense. They've shown that they can win without Brees. The Bucs are 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they had won two of their previous three. They're also 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a double-digit road win in a game where they were listed as underdogs of six or more points. The Saints, on the other hand, are now a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off an upset victory. They were also a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in October the past couple of seasons. Thats a combined 12-0. I expect them to keep on rolling, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I won with the Bengals last week and I'm coming right back with them again here. When you think of the Steelers' offense of recent seasons, you think of names like Rothlisberger, Bell and Brown. The Bengals won't have to face any of them. Bell has moved on. Brown is recently out of the league. Big Ben is hurt. The Steelers are off a very tough loss and off that loss, had to travel back from the West Coast. They're 0-3 on the season. The last two losses came by two and four points. Those can be difficult to bounce back from. The Bengals have now seen two of their three games decided by four or less. They lost by just three against a much better Pittsburgh team here last season. That makes it three of the past five meetings in the series which have been decided by four or fewer points, four of those five decided by a TD or less. The Bengals are now 13-5 ATS their last 18 on the road. In what should be another close one, grab the points. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Lions are going to find an angry and hungry Eagles team. Philly knows it let one get away against Atlanta. The Eagles also know that four of their next five come on the road. In other words, they can ill afford to drop this one. Undefeated (1-0-1) through two games and with three of their next four at home, the Lions may not be feeling the same sense of urgency. True, the Eagles are a bit banged-up at the receiver position. However, thats an area where they're pretty deep and this is a team which likes to spread it around. Even if Jackson and/or Jeffery are out, Wentz still has the likes of Ertz and Agholor to work with. The Lions may have won last week but they still scored only 13 points. That won't cut it here. Note that they're just 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they scored 14 or less in their previous game. During that span, the Eagles are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) when off a loss of six points or less. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win on Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. The injury to QB Darnold has created plenty of value with the home underdog Jets. While they may have been a popular choice to win the Super Bowl, the Browns didn't look good at all in Week. Asking them to go on the road and to cover this many points is asking a lot. The Jets still have a bigtime back in Bell. Their defense was arguably much stronger than Cleveland's in Week 1. Speaking of the Browns' defense, Cleveland is missing some players on that side of the ball. Saftey Randall is out, as is linebacker Taylor. Defensive End Smith may still not play either, though he has returned to practice. Either way, I expect Siemian and the Jets offense to have some success. Though the Jets defense is missing a key player in Mosley, the entire unit figures to be fired up. Remember, their defensive coordinator Gregg Williams used to be the def. coordinator for Cleveland. Jets' safety Jamal Adams noted: "Obviously, he has a chip on his shoulder about this game. We're going to go out there and play for him. He's going to be all riled up.'' Desperate to avoid falling to 0-2, expect the Jets to give their guests all they can handle. 

I'm playing TAMPA. Both teams are going to be hungry and both will be extremely anxious to avoid falling to 0-2. A close first half won't surprise. The Panthers managed only three points in the first half of last week's game here and were trailing 14-3 at the break. The Bucs got off to a better start, they were up 7-6 at the break of their game. Getting more than a field goal with the visitors for the first half, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Admittedly, the Dolphins don't have the talent that their fans would like. However, Week 1 is a different animal. The Fish haven't written off their season yet and they'll be coming ready to play. With the betting public hearing about how bad the Dolphins are going to be, the line has climbed from its opener. Getting all those points, for the home opener, provides us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Ravens have struggled in the road favorite role over the years. Look for Fitzpatrick, who beat out Rosen for the starting job in the preseason and who is starting for his eighth team (an NFL record) to keep the Dolphins in it the entire way, with a great shot at the outright upset.