I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE 10* AFC PERS FAV. The Texans have been better than the Jags so far this season overall. However, I believe that the Jags are favored for good reason. With last week's cover, the Jags are now 2-0-1 ATS off of two or more consecutive SU losses. I backed the Jags the only previous time that they were off three straight losses, as they are here, and the Jags rewarded me by beating the Colts. This hasn't been a good role for the Texans; they're just 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. Of course, they're 0-3 SU/ATS on the road overall this season, too. They've been outscored by an average of 28.3 to 7.3 in those games. Jacksonville's Mercedes Lewis commented: "If we're going to get this turned around, it needs to start now. We're capable of getting on a roll, but the only way to do that is to get that first one and go from there." Look for the Jags to get that first home win, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 8* MAIN EVENT. Lebron and co. brought the city a championship. The Indians came up short but are still heroes. The Browns continue to let Cleveland down. Admittedly, they have been pretty bad. This is a "big game" for them though. Not only are the Ravens a hated rival - remember the Browns once reloacted to Baltimore - but this is a chance to show the world, on National TV, that they're not as bad as their record suggests. The Ravens only average 19.2 points per game, just 17.7 here at Baltimore. Needless to say, that makes covering a big number like this one difficult. Note that the Ravens are just 8-14-3 ATS the last 25 times that they were laying points. The Browns actually average more points (and yards) on the road than the Ravens do at home. They're averaging 19.4 ppg and 358 ypg when playing away from Baltimore. The Browns always seem to get up for the Ravens and they played them tough again in both meetings last season, both those games being decided by six or fewer points. In fact, that makes it 10 straight games in this series which were decided by 10 or fewer points, seven of those decided by a TD or less. Throw in the fact that the Ravens have yet to win a game by more than a TD this season and I'm grabbing all those generous points. 

I'm playing on SF 10* BEST BET. Its true that the 49ers have been pretty bad of late. Its also true that they've cost me a couple of times. That said, I look at each game/team on a game-by-game basis, without bias. After doing so, I believe that that the 49ers are offering us excellent value this week. The Saints aren't the same team on the road. They've won only one road game and that win came by a single point. They only average 23 points on the road and they're an ugly 1-8 ATS that they were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range, including an 0-2 ATS mark on the road in that -3.5 to -7.5 range. While the Saints are off a hard-fought win over Seattle, the 49ers are well-rested, coming off a bye. I believe it came at the right time and I look for them to step up with at least a cover. 

I'm playing on NY 10* DIV GAME OF MONTH. This is a huge game in the NFC East. History would suggest that the Eagles might have the advantage. After all, they swept the Giants last season and have had plenty of success here in recent seasons. That history has worked to our advantage here, in my opinion. Despite the fact that these teams are currently going in opposite directions, we're able to get the Giants at a very reasonable number. Off b2b wins, the Giants bring some positive momentum into Sunday's game. The Eagles are off a hard-fought OT loss against Dallas and have now dropped three or four. While its true that the Eagles have fared well off a divisional setback the past couple of seasons, those "type" of losses can be difficult to bounce back from. When I say "those type of games," I'm referring to the fact that last week's was a game in which the Eagles had outplayed the Cowboys (most of the way) and in which they held a 10-point fourth quarter lead. To blow that type of game against a hated rival figures to be difficult to bounce back from. A look at the numbers shows that the Giants are outgaining opponents by a 436.3 to 360.7 margin when listed as the home team while the Eagles are being outgained by a 370.2 to 289 margin on the road. After the Eagles started out hot, there were some comparisons of Wentz to Peyton Manning. While those comparisons have mostly stopped lately, I look for brother Eli to get the better of the rookie here. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. As you're probably aware, the Bears have really struggled this season. In fact, they've got just one win in seven tries. Meanwhile, the Vikings are an impressive 5-1 SU/ATS on the season. Those records alone may have some expecting a blowout win for the Vikes. After all, the Bears are essentially already "playing out the string" while Minnesota will be playoff bound, if it continues to win at its current pace. Winning on the road in the NFL is rarely easy though, particularly when being asked to beat a hated divisional opponent by a fairly wide margin. I expect the Bears to treat this one like its their "Super Bowl." This is a chance for them to show the world that they're not as bad as everyone believes them to be. While the Minnesota D is indeed formidable, the return of Cutler, who has only played two games, figures to provide a boost to the Bears' offense. Due to having played on a Thursday last time out - a game which saw them embarrassed on National TV - the Bears have had plenty of extra time to prepare for this one. The Vikings, who won by just three here last season after losing by eight the year before, are playing back-to-back road games for the first time this season. They finally came back down to earth last week and I expect them to have their hands full against a determind Bears team the entire way. Look for Cutler and co. to improve to 3-0 ATS the last three times that they played a game where the O/U line ranged from 35.5 to 42. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA 10* PERS FAV. While I certainly respect the Cardinals, the Panthers have a lot going for them here. For starters, I believe that Carolina is a lot better than its (1-5) record suggests. The Panthers and their players believe that too. Unlike other teams with similar records, they still believe that they can run the table and make the playoffs. Playing in the AFC South helps. At 4-3, the Falcons are the only team in the division above .500. That said, the Panthers know that they're in "must win" territory. They can't afford another loss here. While the Panthers are off a bye, the Cards are off a Sunday night game up in the Pacific Northwest, a hard-fought battle that ended in a tie, one which came against their most hated division rival. Now, they travel across the country to play an early game against a rested and hungry Carolina team which is still 16-6 its last 22 here. Look for the Panthers to put it all together, improving to 7-1 SU/ATS their last eight as home favorites of -3 or fewer points. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE 10* AFC SOUTH “GOM.” These teams have been involved in a number of very close games in recent seasons. While I like the Jags' chances of winning outright, another tight one won't surprise on Thursday. That makes getting an extra field goal, or more, an appealing proposition. The last four meetings have all been decided by eight or fewer points. The two games here at Tennessee have both been decided by a field goal of less. The Titans won 42-39 here last season and 16-14 the previous year. The Jags have won two of three games away from Jacksonville this season, each of their last two. They knocked off the Colts in London and beat the Bears in their most recent road outing. Note that three of their six games have been decided by a field goal or less, four of six have been decided by four or less. Meanwhile, off a loss last time out, the Titans are 3-4 on the season. Two of their three wins came by two points or less, too. That means that they'd be 1-6 ATS if asked to cover this week's line in every game - and that lone "decisive" win came on the road. They're 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS here at home. In fact, they're now a brual 3-15-2 ATS their last 20 games here. The Titans lost a couple of important starters to injury in their last game. Guard Quinton Spain is expected to be out several weeks. That'll likely hurt the Titans running game while the pass protection will also suffer. Meanwhile, cornerback Perrish Cox is in concussion protocol and is expected to also miss Thursday's game. He already had a couple of INT's and his loss would hurt a secondary which got completely lit up by Bortles (5 TDs) and Robinson (10/153/3 TDs) the last time these teams met. I'm grabbing the points with the Jags.

I'm playing on SF. The 49'ers could badly use a victory and this should be the perfect opponent and situation for them to get one. The Bucs are off a bye but that's not necessarily a good thing, as they're 0-2 SU off a bye the past couple of seasons. An upset win over Carolina, prior to the bye, may have made focusing a little more difficult, during the off-week. Note that the Bucs are 0-4 SU/ATS their last four off a divisional victory. While they've still got Evans, the losses of Martin and Jackson figure to take a toll on the TB offense. The 49ers are desperate and this is a team they can beat. They've dominated them historically and I look for history to repeat itself Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* GAME OF THE MONTH. The Falcons have been rolling. However, I believe the Seahawks will bring them back down to earth in a big way on Sunday afternoon. While the Falcons certainly deserve some credit for last week's win at Denver, we just saw the Chargers dominate the Broncos on Thursday night. So, perhaps beating Denver wasn't as big a feat as it seemed at the time. More importantly, it puts the Falcons in a difficult scheduling spot. Now, they're playing the second of b2b road games and their fourth road game in the past five weeks. They're doing so thousands of miles away from home, at arguably the most hostile environment in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have the luxury of playing at home and playing with an extra week's worth of rest. They bye allowed them to "get healthy" while also providing some extra time to prepare for the Falcons. While Atlanta may have caught Denver off guard, expect the well-rested Seahawks to be ready. Prior to their bye, the Hawks were off b2b double-digit wins. I'm expecting another one here.

I'm playing on MIAMI 10*. While I certainly respect the Steelers, I believe that this number is a little high. This is essentially a "must win" game for the Dolphins as they simply cannot afford another loss. They've got some potentially winnable games coming up but they need to find a way to score the upset here. In recent seasons, they've fared well, when off b2b SU losses. Their Week 3 victory, which followed consecutive losses to open the season, brought the Dolphins to 7-2 SU the last nine times that they were off two or more consecutive SU losses. While the stats favor Pittsburgh, I still believe the Dolphins are a little more talented than the stats say they are. With their season (arugably) on the line, look for them to be the "hungrier" team, digging down deep and earning at least a cover. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Skins were able to effectively run the ball against the likes of the Browns and Giants. However, I expect them to have considerably more trouble doing so against the Ravens, as the Baltimore D has been outstanding. In fact, with only 256 yards (210.5 at home) allowed per game, the Ravens' defense ranks #1 in the entire league. On the other hand, the Skins are allowing 413 yards per game, 457 per game on the road. While the Skins are 3-7 ATS their last 10 against the AFC, the Ravens are 5-2-1 ATS their last eight against NFC teams. Look for their superior defense to be the difference this afternoon. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. Two weeks ago, I backed the Cardinals when they crushed the Bucs by a 40-7 margin. Last week, with the Cards on the road for the first time, I played against them. The Bills would go on to beat them 33-18. Off that loss and now back at home, I'm coming back with the Cards on Sunday afternoon. While only 1-2, I believe that this is still a strong Arizona team, one which has an advantage on both sides of the ball in this matchup. While they already avenged that loss with a 27-3 victory at St. Louis, the Cards won't have forgotten that the Rams beat them in the first week of October here last season.  Catching the Rams playing the second of b2b road games, I expect another double-digit win.

I'm playing on SF. Some of you may be surprised to see me playing on the 49'ers. After all, I've played against them each of the last two weeks. (The 49'ers lost those games by scores of 46-27 and 37-18.) Those games both came on the road against angry, desperate and highly talented/capable teams, Seattle and Carolina. As you know, the Seahawks and Panthers have represented the NFC in the SB for three years in a row. This week, however, the 49ers are back home and they're hosting a Dallas team which hasn't been to the Super Bowl in decades. I believe they're catching the Cowboys, who are without Romo and likely without Dez Bryant (gametime decision but expected to miss) at the right time. The Cowboys played their first two games against divisional opponents and their next one was a nationally televised Sunday night game. Off those three 'big games' and now flying out to the West Coast, I feel that the Cowboys may be ripe for a letdown. The 49'ers, on the other hand, should be extremely motivated to bounce back from b2b blowout losses. Keep in mind that they won their only game here by a score of 28-0. They're 4-0 ATS their last four as home underdogs of three or fewer points and I expect them to improve on those stats Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. This game will be played almost 10 years to the day that the Saints played "Domecoming," their first game back home after missing nearly a year due to Hurricane Katrina. Their opponent that Monday night? These very same Atlanta Falcons. (The Saints cruised to a 23-3 victory.) While the Falcons have gone through various coaches and QB's - Jim Mora (JR) was Atlanta's coach that night, Michael Vick their QB - both Sean Payton and Drew Brees, who went 20 of 28 that night, remain for the Saints. The significance of this game won't be lost on either of them, just as it wasn't that night. Looking at some more recent history and we find that the Saints, who have started the season at 0-2, are 6-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b SU losses. Needless to say, the Saints know they can't afford to fall to 0-3. Not when they're playing in the same division as Newton and the Panthers, who they'll face in Week 5, after returning home from a trip to the West Coast in Week 4. They beat the Falcons by 10 points here last season; I expect them to "rise to the occasion" with a "statement win" on Monday night. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. I respect the Cardinals; as many of you know, I've backed them in each of their first two games. After disappointing in their opener, they bounced back with a blowout win over Tampa last week. They're on the road for the first time here though and I expect them to have their hands full. Note that the Cards are only 3-6 ATS, after their Week 1 setback, their last nine against teams from the AFC. (During the same stretch, they've dominated NFC teams.) The Bills had lofty expectations this season, the Brady suspension providing particular optimism. However, they find themselves at 0-2 entering the week, the Pats 2-0, heading into their Thursday game vs. Houston. Regardless of what happens on Thursday, the Bills figure to be in "desperation mode." They know that they can ill afford to head into Foxboro, the first of b2b road games, with an 0-3 record. That makes taking care of business essential this week. They'll be working with some extra rest, the result of having played a Thursday game last week, and that figures to help in their preparation. The Bills are 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. During that stretch, they're also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when coming off b2b SU losses. Look for them to bounce back with AT LEAST a cover once again here. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Thus far, the Broncos have fared just fine without Peyton Manning. I expect the defending champs, who are playing their first on the road, to finally taste defeat on Sunday afternoon though. This is the Bengals' home opener and there's going to be some extra emotion and energy in the stadium. While they lost last week, Marvin Lewis' Bengals remain an impressive 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS their last eight September games. They're also 3-1 SU/ATS their last four off a division loss. While the Broncos came back to beat them last December - which sent the Bengals to the Wildcard Rd. vs the Steelers - the Bengals won big (38-27) the last meeting here at Cincinnati, a big Monday night win over Manning. I expect another big win and cover for the Bengals here.

I'm playing on HOUSTON on Thursday night. Normally, for a game on a short week, I often initially take a look at the home team. This isn't a "normal" situation though. The Patriots survived admirably without future Hall-Of-Fame QB Tom Brady. However, now it appears that they're also going to be without his replacement, Garroppolo. As you probably saw or heard, Garroppolo went down in the win over Miami. That looks like its going to leave a rookie QB, Jacoby Brissett, making his first start, while playing on a short week. Brissett was six of nine in relief but now he's up against J.J. Watt and a Houston defense which has surrendered a mere 13 points and 274.5 total yards per game, thus far. (That's a whole lot better than the 22.5 ppg and 401.5 ypg which New England has allowed!) The Texans are 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS the last 15 times that they were favored, including 2-0 SU/ATS as a road favorites of three or less. They're itching for some payback, after the Pats embarrassed them (27-6) at Houston last year. I expect them to get it. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA. The 49ers are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Angry off their opening week loss, the Panthers are playing with extra rest, due to having played on Thursday night. On the other hand, SF is off a late MNF game on the West Coast and is now playing an early Sunday game in the Eastern Time Zone. Note that the west-coast based 49ers are a money-burning 14-26 ATS over the years, the past 40 times that they were off a MNF game, 0-2 SU/ATS their last two. While the 49ers were 6-10 ATS (5-11 SU) on the road the past two seasons, Carolina was 13-6 ATS and 15-4 SU here at home. During that time, the Panthers are also 5-1 ATS against teams from the NFC South. While the 49ers looked impressive against the Rams, I'm not convinced that all their defensive issues are solved yet. Look for the Panthers to expose those issues, en route to a lopsided win and cover. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. Getting a handful of points, I believe the Jaguars are offering excellent value. The Jags figure to be significantly improved this season. They've got a young and talented offense (Bortles threw 35 TDs and 4400+ yards LY) with another year under its belt and a revamped defense that they spent big money on during the offseason. Rodgers is (obviously) a great QB and he'll surely enjoy having Nelson back. That said, last season was the worst of Rodgers career. Also, Nelson didn't play in the preseason after missing all of last year. Additionally, they just released Josh Sitton, a fixture on the offensive line and 2-year All Pro. The Jags outscored teams by an average of 23.4 to 22.0 here last season, while the Packers outscored teams by a 23.7 to 23.0 margin in games away from Lambeau. There's going to be a lot of excitement in the stadium and I look for the Jags to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on KC. The Chiefs are 4-0 against the Chargers the past two seasons. The past three of those victories all came by a minimum of seven points and by an average of greater than 16. I look for "more of the same" this afternoon. The Chargers, 4-12 last season, still don't know if SD will be there permanent home. That's got to be an unsettling feeling. The Chiefs, who have covered 12 of 20 (60%) as favorites the past couple of seasons, enter today's action on a 10-game "regular season" winning streak. Even without Charles, they still have a potent running attack. I expect them to wear down their guests, en route to another win and cover. 

I'm playing on DENVER. Carolina has certainly had an impressive season. The Panthers are up against an outstanding defense here though, one which is peaking at the right time. They're also up against a future Hall-Of-Fame QB, one of the all-time greats, one who will be playing with a chip on his shoulder.

Manning has had a storybook career. However, much of his legacy is likely going to ride on this game. A victory gives him another SB ring and a winning all-time postseason record. A loss, however, gives him a losing playoff record and he becomes a 3-time loser. Needless to say, Manning hasn't forgotten the debacle against Seattle two seasons ago. As someone who appreciates the history of the game, and his place in it, this game is as big as they come for Peyton.
 
I really liked what I saw out of Manning against the Pats. He did what he needed to do, even running for a key first down when needed. I also liked the way the talented receiving corps bounced back after dropping a few in the poor conditions against Pittsburgh the previous week.
 
Like him or not, Newton has looked pretty darn impressive all year. The same can be said for Brady though and the Broncos defense made him look like an ordinary QB in the conference championships. Less than ordinary, in fact. Indeed, Brady's 18.1 QB rating in the first half was the lowest by any NFL playoff QB in the past five years. While he still threw for more than 300 yards, Brady connected on less than half of his passes and had more INT's than TD passes. (That was the only time he's ever been held to less than 50% completions in a playoff game.) The Broncos hit him at least 20 times. The point that I'm trying to make is that if the Broncos can do that to Brady than I believe that they can do the same to Newton. This defense is that good.
 
The Panthers are banged-up, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The last time that they played away from Carolina, they lost. They've become accustomed to having things easy, blowing teams out and posing for the camera. They're going to be in for a dogfight here though against a battle-tested Broncos team which has been involved in close games all season. I look for that close game experience to serve them well here.
 
As a close game won't surprise, I'm happy to grab the points. That said, I'm expecting an outright win from Manning and co. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on ARIZONA. With 30 victories between them, these teams are obviously both extremely capable. That said, I really like how this one sets up for the visitors.

I (successfully) played against the Cards last week. Among my reasons for doing so was that I felt that they were laying a very big number. I really respect Rodgers and McCarthy and liked the momentum that the GB offense had gained from the win over Washington. Also, I didn't like that Arizona had lost its last game by a score of 36-6. Additionally, I knew Palmer hadn't won a playoff game - and until he'd overcome that hurdle, I didn't feel that his team deserved to be laying 7 or 7.5 points against the battle-tested Pack. Things set up much differently this week though.

For starters, the Cards no longer have to worry about laying any points. More importantly, instead of coming off a blowout loss, the Cards are now coming off a momentum-buidling win. They survived a miracle comeback by GB and still came out ahead. Their veteran star receiver was the hero and Palmer got the monkey off his back with a playoff win. They also get an extra day's worth of rest to compensate for the travel.

Carolina was certainly impressive in the first half against Seattle. However, the Panthers then had to hang on for dear life, nearly squandering a massive lead, while getting banged-up in the process. Olsen and Stewart, Newton's top two offensive weapons, were among the walking wounded. (Both are expected to play but its possible that they may be slightly less than 100%.)

While there's no denying that the Panthers have a talented defense, it should be noted that they've given up 20 or more points in four of their last six game and that two of those teams torched them for 35 or more. Now, they'll be taking on the #1 ranked offense in football, one which averaged 32.7 points and 426.2 points while going 7-1 on the road. (They outscored teams by an average of two TD's on the road this season, 32.7 to 18.7.) The Panthers won last year but the Cards didn't have Palmer, who happened to throw for 4671 yards (35 TDs) this season. Payback time. 10* Playoff GOY

*10 ROAST on Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks may have been lucky to sneak into the Divisional Round in a win over Minnesota, but this a quality team and a playoff savvy squad that will make the most of this opportunity. Seattle has plenty of motivation against the Panthers, who claimed the top spot in the NFC with a one-loss season. That record included a win in CenturyLink Field in Week 6. However, that was a long time ago and Seattle is a much different team. In the first meeting with the Panthers, Seattle was able to sack Cam Newton three times and limit him to 20-of-36 passing with two interceptions. The Seahawks pass rush has picked up the pace in recent games and will bring even more heat against Newton, who has struggled to complete passes under pressure. As Cam goes, so do the Panthers. If he’s struggling to create offense, Carolina is stuck looking for points elsewhere. That could be tough against the best scoring defense in the NFL for four years running.

I’m playing on Seattle as a 10* Sunday. 

*10 DIVISIONAL RND. GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay Packers.

The Packers looked like the team football fans have been waiting on in recent weeks in a one-sided win over Washington in the Wildcard Round. Green Bay manhandled a good Redskins defense and did a good job protecting Aaron Rodgers, allowing only one sack. This team is getting healthier on the offensive line and won’t have a repeat of Week 16’s beating at the hands of the Cardinals. Green Bay is getting good work from runners Eddie Lacy and James Starks, which will keep the Cardinals defense guessing. Arizona was rolled by Seattle in the season finale in which the Seahawks rumbled for 145 yards on the ground and dominated time of possession, tallying 36:37 of game time. The Packers, who rushed for 141 yards against the Redskins, can set a similar pace in the Divisional Round.

I’m playing on Green Bay as a 10* Saturday. 

I am playing on the GREEN BAY PACKERS. This spread is rightly a close one but I believe the Packers hold the edge here with the better quarterback and better defense statistically.

The Redskins are an overrated squad in my opinion after playing in a horrendous division all season with a weak schedule through which they could only muster a 9-7 record. The Skins didn't beat one team all season with a winning record and I just feel they are unjustly getting too much action here as a result.

While it's true Green Bay has had its struggles on offense, Washington's secondary is nothing to brag about with a ranking of 25th in the league against the pass. I think we'll see Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing attack have a big performance on Sunday and I think we'll see Green Bay's defense look more like the one that held Minnesota to 20 points and just 91 yards passing last week, rather than the one that allowed 38 points to Arizona the week before.

The Redskins have lost the yardage battle in four of their last five games and in seven of their last 10 and I feel that's a great indicator a team playing above its head. I expect Green Bay to get the win and cover on Sunday. 10* Game of the Week 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY.

Off a 38-8 loss at Arizona, many are asking what happened to the once mighty Packers? I'm not ready to write them off because of one bad game though. After all, it was their second straight road game and they were up against a tough Arizona team. Now, they're back home where they've won 18 of 24 games the past few seasons. Now, they're facing a familiar foe that they hammered last month at Minnesota, one which they destroyed in last year's meeting here. While the Vikings have admittedly improved, I look for another win and cover for the Pack.

10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on SEATTLE.

The Cardinals are rolling and come in off an impressive blowout of Green Bay. The Seahawks are off a loss vs. the lowly Rams. That will have most backing the home team. The Hawks haven't forgotten that the Cards beat them up in Seattle though. They also know that they could use some momentum going into the playoffs AND that they could meet Arizona in the playoffs. While I respect the Cards, I won't be surprised to see the Hawks step up and score the upset.

10* NFC West G.O.M.

I'm playing on BUFFALO.

Many will likely back the Jets here because they "need" the game more. I don't expect the Bills to lack motivation though. Not with the chance to play spoiler against a hated rival. Running back Dixon called it: "the Bills' Superbowl" and went on to say: "We got something to play for now," he said. "We been having something to play for -- that's our respect and our pride. We always want that. But to send them home packing -- that would be great." The Bills haven't lost here since way back in mid-October. They beat the Jets at NY and I expect them to give them all they can handle again here.

10* AFC GOW

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA.

In a game where motivation might well determine who covers the spread, I believe that the Chip Kelly release may well give the Eagles the edge. While Kelly had some supporters, there were also a number of players who weren't on board with his approach and/or personality. I believe they'll come together in an effort to show they're better off without him and that they really were better than the 6-9 record Kelly left them with. The Eagles are 2-0 ATS off a division loss, defeating the Jets and Saints by a combined 53-34 margin. An outright victory won't surprise.

10* best bet. 

I'm playing on DENVER.

While they've had an extra day to work with, this is still a tough scheduling spot for the Bengals. Still without their starting QB, they play the second of B2B road games, having played at SF last Sunday. Making matters worse, they'll be playing in the bitter cold and taking on arguably the best defense in the league. True, they've been great on the road all season. However, this is the first time that they played consecutive road games in consecutive weeks. (Only previous time they played b2b road games was separated by a bye.) Expect it to catch up with them here. Broncos roll.

10* MNF GOY

I am playing on MINNESOTA (vs NY Giants) as my *10 SNF Game of the Year on Sunday @ 8:30 PM ET - With the Eagles falling to the Redskins on Saturday night, the Giants are eliminated from post-season contention as Washington locked up the NFC East. It's tough to see the Giants offense having a lot of push tonight with the disappointing result of last night's game. That said, I don't look for the Giants to be able to match the intensity that the Vikings bring into this game. Minnesota is still locked in a dogfight in the NFC North and will be bringing their "A game" tonight. The Vikings last five games against teams with a losing record have seen them allow just 15.8 points per game and all 5 games resulted in Minnesota victories. The Vikes are an incredible 11-3 ATS this season and the Giants are limping into this game with straight-up losses in 4 of their last 5 games. In week 14 the Giants played on Monday night while the Vikings played on Thursday night. The physical toll for New York of now playing their 3rd game in 14 days is a tough one compared to a Vikings team playing their 3rd game in 18 days. In addition to the physical toll, the emotional toll of the recent losses and knowing your season is over is a tough one for the Giants (after Redskins wrapped up NFC East last night) while the Vikings got a big boost with their huge 38-17 win over Chicago last week. This one should be ALL Minnesota on Sunday night.

I am playing on SEATTLE (vs St Louis) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - The Seahawks have not only won five straight games, Seattle has simply been dominating opponents. In the five game win streak, Seattle has won games by an average margin of 20.4 points per victory. Needless to say, St Louis is in trouble here. The Rams are off of back to back wins but those victories came at home. On the road, the Rams are 1-5 straight-up (and 1-4-1 ATS) this season. St Louis, before the back to back home wins, had lost five straight games and averaged scoring only 10.8 points per game in those contests. This is also a revenge game for the Seahawks because they lost their season opener at St Louis by a field goal. That 34-31 defeat is a loss that Seattle will want to avenge in a big way on Sunday afternoon. Seattle's last two home games against the Rams were victories by an average margin of 16 points per win and the Hawks should easily take Sunday's game by at least 3 TD's. In games played in the last four weeks of the regular season, Seattle is on a 9-1 ATS run. As a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, the Seahawks are on a 6-2 ATS run. In a road game with a total set in a range of 38.5 to 42 points, the Rams are on an 0-8 ATS run. This one is ALL Seattle on Sunday as they get their revenge in a big way.

I am playing on DETROIT (vs San Francisco) as my *10 Breakfast Club on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The 49'ers are simply ready to fade into the off-season. San Francisco hasn't put up much of a fight lately with 6 losses in their last 8 games. The average margin of defeat in those six losses was 14 points per defeat. The Lions are likely to put another big loss on the Niners here. Detroit is still playing with fire. The Lions got a 35-27 win over the Saints last week and that game was on the road. Detroit is back home for this week 16 match-up and the Lions have averaged 28.4 points per game in their last 5 home games. The Lions got good news on the injury front too as Calvin Johnson (ankle) is listed as probable for Sunday's game. Johnson has had some huge games at home and another one is likely against a Niners defense that ranks among the worst in the league. San Francisco's offense is also a concern here as they have been held to 17 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The 49'ers won't be able to match the potent Lions offense score for score in this one and that's why it's only a matter of time before Detroit has amassed a double digit lead in this one. The Lions, since the midway point of this season, have started to impose their will against weaker foes as Detroit is on a 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS run against teams with a losing record. The Niners are 2-5 ATS in road games this season and are also known for "mailing it in" at the end of a season with a 2-8 ATS mark the last three seasons combined in games played in the final four weeks of the regular season. This game has the perfect ingredients for a Lions blowout win.

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (vs Washington) as my Saturday NFL *Game of the Year* on Saturday @ 8:25 ET - This is the Eagles season Saturday night. Last year in Week 16 of the season these teams also met on Saturday night and a Redskins team with just 2 wins on the year got the upset win even though Philly outgained Washington by nearly 200 yards. The Eagles haven't forgotten that loss nor the loss at Washington earlier this season where a late Redskins TD pass with under a minute to go did the Eagles in. This is a do or die game for the Eagles while Washington can clinch the NFC East with a win. Look for the Eagles to bounce back after last week's tough result where Philly was done in by four turnovers in their ugly loss against Arizona. The Redskins have struggled on the road this season with a 1-5 straight-up record and 2-4 ATS mark this season. This is nothing new as the Skins are 7-15 ATS in road games the last three seasons combined and that includes an 0-3 ATS mark as a road dog of three points or less. The Eagles are on a long-term 60-41 ATS run when playing with revenge. The Redskins gave up over 450 yards of offense to the Bills last week so Washington was fortunate to get the win thanks to a rare, strong performance on offense. Prior to scoring 35 points against the Bills, the Redskins had averaged 19 points per game in their four previous games. The Redskins will struggle to keep up with an Eagles team piling up the yardage with Sam Bradford at QB. Done in by turnovers last week, the Philly offense limits mistakes and resumes their long-term series dominance of the Redskins after suffering rare, back to back losses to Washington in the last two meetings. 

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (@ Oakland) as my *10 NFL Game of the Week on Thursday @ 8:25 ET - San Diego is unlikely to have a letdown here as the revenge-minded Chargers play loose and build momentum from last week's emotional team win over the Dolphins. San Diego dominated Miami with edges of 26 to 13 in first downs and 442 to 231 in yardage. The Chargers are seeking revenge here for the 37 to 29 home loss to the Raiders in late October. Oakland comes into this game off of an ugly home loss to the Packers last week as early Raiders turnovers led to 14 quick points for Green Bay. That defeat officially eliminated Oakland from playoff contention and they are simply putting the wraps on another disappointing season while the Chargers are trying to "save face" here at the end of the season and that started with how hard they played in last week's big win over Miami. The Raiders are a very poor 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite and they appear to very over-priced in this spot. Take advantage with the underdog Chargers in this one. 

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (vs Arizona) as my *10 NFL *Game of the Week* on Sunday @ 8:30 PM ET - Even though the Cardinals continued their winning streak last week it was the 3rd time in their last 4 games that Arizona failed to get the cover. The Cards allowed nearly 400 yards of offense in last week's tight win and it was the 3rd time in their last 4 games that Arizona allowed passing yards of 278 or more. The Cardinals are 4-6 ATS and on a long-term 26-38 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Arizona is taking on an Eagles team surging with confidence after back to back wins over the Patriots and Bills. The return of QB Sam Bradford from injury as well as notching these two key victories, has led to a resurgent feeling in the Eagles in the locker-room. Philadelphia is tied for first place in the division and the Eagles know they control their own destiny as to whether they make the post-season or not. Motivation and emotion are key factors in the NFL and the Eagles certainly have those areas working in their favor for this one. Philadelphia has won 10 of the last 14 home match-ups versus Arizona. The Eagles have rushed for over 115 yards in 3 of their last 4 games. The Cardinals have been held under 98 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games. The ground game could be a key in this tough grudge match battle and that favors the Eagles in the trenches. Philadelphia has games with the Giants and Redskins to wrap up their season but there is no way they'll overlook the 11-2 Cardinals. Arizona finishes their season with the 9-4 Packers and a big rivalry game with the 8-5 Seahawks. The Cards could get caught underestimating this scrappy, resurgent Eagles team on Sunday night. 

I am playing on ATLANTA (@ Jacksonville) as my *10 NFL Game of the Month on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The Falcons are facing a Jaguars team that is off of a pair of unusually high-scoring games and the fact that the Jags scored an average of 45 points per game in the past two games has helped to inflate this number. Jacksonville scored 51 points last week but that was on only 380 yards of offense. The Jaguars are facing a Falcons defense that allowed just 19 points per game in their six games prior to their rare, poor performance last week. Look for Atlanta's defense to have its ears pinned back and be ready to go hard Sunday after the embarrassment of the 38-0 loss last week. The Jaguars are still alive in the weak AFC South division in terms of the playoff picture. That means the pressure is on Jacksonville here while the Falcons are basically just playing for next season. That means a relaxed Atlanta team will be taking the field here. Jacksonville will try to play conservative here and just not make mistakes against a team they know they should beat because Atlanta has lost 6 in a row. The problem with this is teams often get themselves in trouble when trying to play too conservatively and basically play "not to lose". Look for that to be the situation with the Jaguars this week. As for Atlanta, the Falcons will look to pound the ball on the ground after too many turnovers have led to trouble for them in recent weeks. The result is an aggressive, physical Atlanta team on both sides of the ball leading to a big effort for the Falcons here and a great shot at the outright upset win. Jacksonville is on a 1-9 SU and 1-9 ATS run in their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. The Jags struggle again against an NFC foe.

I am playing on DALLAS (vs New York Jets) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday @ 8:25 ET - The Cowboys had a tough effort at Green Bay last week as they managed just 7 points and 11 first downs. Look for a big bounce back effort here from Dallas as they are still alive in the very weak NFC East division. Last week was the 2nd time in 4 weeks that the Cowboys ran for more than 165 yards. Getting the ground game going against the Jets will open things up for the aerial attack and the pass defense is the one mediocre area of the Jets defense. Look for the Cowboys to put up a lot more points than many are expecting here. On other side of the ball, the Jets will certainly put up some points but they are not going to be able to keep up with the Cowboys in this one. Dallas ranks among the top teams in the league at defending the pass. The Jets, on the other hand, allowed 268 passing yards to the Titans last week and the Jets were fortunate that ended up equating to only 8 points. The Jets have allowed 284 passing yards per game the past eight weeks! Also, prior to allowing just 8 points to Tennessee, the Jets had given up an average of 24 points per game the past eight games. New York did not allow less than 20 points in any of those games. The Cowboys, at home and still mathematically alive in the playoff race, certainly will bring an intense effort here!

I am playing on CHICAGO (vs Washington) as my *10 NFL *Game of the Year* on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - Very tough spot for the Redskins. On Monday night against the Cowboys, Washington had a chance to take sole possession of first place in the NFC East. Instead, they lost a nail-biter 19-16 and now are tied with the Giants and Eagles for first place with the Cowboys just a single game back. Not only is it short rest for the Redskins this week (a physical toll) but there is also the emotional toll of a very tough home loss in a spot where the Skins had a chance to really put themselves in a fantastic position in the division. This is one of only 4 games remaining and the Redskins are still lamenting the position they could have been in. The Bears also come in off of a tough game but the advantages here for Chicago include a second straight home game and the fact the Bears are on regular rest here. The Redskins have lost all 5 of their road games this season and they have only covered one of those five games. Washington is on a 6-15 ATS run in road games the past three seasons and also 4-12 ATS against teams with a losing record. The Bears are 6-2 ATS this season when playing on rest of six days or less. Chicago had a 20-13 edge in first downs against the 49'ers last week and the Bears did outplay the Niners but lost in OT. Chicago will bounce back huge this week against a Redskins team that is losing by an average margin of 15 points per defeat on the road this season and that has been outgained by more than 150 yards per game in road games this year. Look for Chicago's ground game on offense and solid pass defense (rank as one of the best in the league) to key this big win over Washington Sunday.

I am playing on CLEVELAND (vs San Francisco) as my *10 BLUE MARLIN on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The 49'ers are off of a 'fluke' win at Chicago last week as they won in overtime despite only having 13 first downs in the entire game. San Francisco now faces a Browns team that is very hungry for a win and at home with Johnny Manziel back under center. Look for this to result in a big effort from the Browns and Cleveland will take advantage of a San Francisco team traveling east for a second straight week. The 49'ers had averaged just 10.4 points per game in their five games prior to the crazy win at Chicago last week. San Francisco has struggled to move the ball all season long. The Browns have averaged 269 passing yards per game in their past three games and Manziel has had a big game against the division rival Steelers in his most recent start. The 49'ers are 23-40 ATS in road games with a total set in a range between 38.5 and 42 points. San Francisco also was 0-5 straight-up and 1-4 ATS this season in road games before coming up with the win at Chicago last week. Look for Cleveland to respond in a big way for a home win here as Manziel has another big game against a weak Niners defense.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (@ Kansas City) as my *10 NFL Shocker Game of the Week on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - Kansas City got the win at Oakland last week despite being outgained by a 361 to 232 margin. The Chiefs were quite fortunate and that 34-23 win is helping to drive this line higher than it should be. San Diego is off a loss to Denver but the Chargers held the Broncos to just 17 points and less than 300 yards of offense. San Diego now seeks revenge against the Chiefs for an embarrassing 33-3 loss at home just three weeks ago. That said, there is no shortage of motivation here for the Chargers and San Diego has averaged 356 passing yards per game in the Chargers last three road games. Phillip Rivers and Company will be ready to do some damage here after being held to 3 points last week by Denver and also held to 3 points in their prior match-up with the Chiefs. The Chargers are already a perfect 2-0 ATS this season when off of a loss against a division rival and I look for them to make up for the loss to Denver by absolutely giving the Chiefs all they can handle here. Kansas City has gone 5-9 ATS when off of a divisional game and the "lucky" win over Oakland last week makes them very vulnerable to a hungry underdog San Diego team this week.

I am playing on MINNESOTA (@ Arizona) as my *10 Main Event on Thursday @ 8:25 ET - The Vikings only had 9 first downs in last week's embarrassing 38 to 7 home loss to Seattle. The Cardinals only gave up 9 first downs in their easy 27 to 3 road win at St Louis last week. This sets things up very nicely for a contrarian play this week as the team (Minnesota) that got dominated last week now takes on the team (Arizona) that was on the right side of some domination last week. Of course most will flock to back the Cardinals here but that is underestimating the emotional aspect of football. Off of that insanely ugly loss last week, the Vikings are likely to bounce back with a huge effort this week. As for the Cardinals, they could be a little flat here after the big divisional win last week and Arizona is hosting a Minnesota team that has covered 14 of last 18 in non-divisional games. The Vikings are very solid against the pass and also have a powerful ground game on offense. Look for both of these areas of strength to be keys that help keep Minnesota inside the large number on this game. The Cardinals are on a 2-5 ATS run when off of a win against a division rival. Also, Arizona is on a 1-4 ATS run in Thursday games and have failed to cover the spread 8 of the last 9 times they have been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. The Vikings are 11-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in road games this season.

I am playing on DALLAS (@ Washington) as my *10 NFC East *GAME OF THE YEAR* on Monday @ 8:30 PM ET - Dallas has won three of their last four meetings with Washington. Last year the Cowboys wrapped up the season by demolishing the Redskins in a 44-17 final. With the Giants losing to the Jets on Sunday, the NFC East is still absolutely up for grabs. Dallas is certainly well aware of the fact that, no matter how frustrating this season has been to this point, the Cowboys can move to within a game of first place by knocking off the Redskins tonight. Dallas is coming off of a loss to Carolina on Thanksgiving Day so they have the rest edge heading into this match-up as the Redskins hosted the Giants on Sunday last week. The Cowboys held the Panthers under 300 yards of offense last week but Dallas lost the game because of turnovers. The Redskins got by the Giants last week but they were the beneficiary of a 3-0 edge in turnovers just as the Cowboys were on the wrong side of a 3-0 turnover margin against Carolina. All of this is combining to create some nice line value for the underdog in this Monday night match-up. Though the Cowboys are again without Romo, the Dallas defense has been playing exceptionally well in their last three games. The road team has won each of the last three meetings between these teams and I look for that to be the end result tonight as well. The points are worth taking in this match-up. The Redskins are on a 13-27 ATS run as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Dallas is on a 6-2 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 

I am playing on NEW ORLEANS (vs Carolina) as my *10 Best Bet on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - The Saints fit the definition of a classic 'ugly dog' as New Orleans has lost - and also failed to cover - three straight games. This lack of performance at the betting window has led to some exceptional home dog value with New Orleans this week. Oftentimes when no one wants a team that is precisely the best time to back them. The Saints are getting a lot of value here because the Panthers are undefeated on the season, have covered four straight games, and everyone watched Carolina trounce Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. What is interesting about the Turkey Day game is that the Panthers had less than 300 yards of offense against the Cowboys. The key to the win for Carolina was the Dallas turnovers as the Cowboys had three in the game. In fact, the Panthers offense has only averaged about 322 yards per game in their last three games. New Orleans is averaging over 400 yards of offense per game on the season and I look for them to give the Panthers all they can handle here. It is easy for Carolina to overlook the 4-7 Saints here as the Panthers are 11-0 on the season and have defeated New Orleans in each of their last two meetings. The Saints will be out for revenge here and are likely to be the more motivated team. New Orleans is 3-0 ATS this season and 7-2 ATS the last three seasons when playing with revenge. Look for a shocker at the Superdome on Sunday.

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (@ New England) as my *10 Game of the Week on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - Sam Bradford is expected to be back at QB for the Eagles this week and anyone who doesn't think that is a big deal must not have watched Marc Sanchez play the last few weeks. The fact is that, with the whole world against the Eagles and coach Chip Kelly, there has likely never been a better time to back them than this week. The Patriots are dealing with a major injury bug and also are coming off of a meltdown defeat at Denver that ended their unbeaten season. While a common theory is to back a good team off of a loss, the Patriots are likely to have some carryover effect from the loss to the Broncos. That defeat against a Broncos team playing with Osweiler at QB says a lot about just how bad the Patriots current situation is. They are plagued by injuries that have limited the weapons Tom Brady has to throw to. Additionally, the Pats offensive line injuries throughout the season have worn on them up to this point even as they have gotten healthier along the line. The cohesiveness of the unit has not been the same. That's part of the reason the Pats were outgained by over 100 yards last week at Denver. With the Pats offense struggling the points could again be a little harder to come by this week as the Eagles defense has welcomed the extra rest since they played on Thanksgiving. Philly's D is fired up for a strong performance after the rarity of allowing a ridiculous 45 points in back to back weeks. The Patriots are 15-27 ATS in home games with a total set between 45.5 and 49 points. The Eagles are 7-4 straight-up in their last 11 games on turf and, with good weather expected in New England and the Eagles having the healthier offense, look for Philly to be in this one all the way and possibly even steal the upset win on the road.

I am playing on TENNESSEE (vs Jacksonville) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 1 ET - Jacksonville got the home win over Tennessee in mid-November and now it is time for the Titans to return the favor in the rematch. The home team has won each of the last three meetings between these teams. Additionally, the Jaguars are dealing with a cluster of injuries while the Titans come into this game in surprisingly good shape from an injury standpoint. The Titans have a long-term record of 21-11 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less. The Jaguars are on a 15-22 ATS run as an underdog. The Jags came back late to beat the Titans in their recent match-up. Also, Tennessee gave up a late TD for the deciding score in their loss to Oakland last week. These tight losses have led to value here with the short home favorite Sunday. On the season the Titans have the better defense, they also are the healthier team, they have the home field edge here, and they rank among the league leaders in sacks with a better pass rush than the Jaguars. Look for Tennessee to get the big revenging win here.

I am playing on GREEN BAY (@ Detroit) as my *10 Main Event on Thursday @ 8:25 ET - The Packers are off of their Thanksgiving Day loss to the Bears where they had 24 first downs (compared to just 17 for Chicago) and where Green Bay did outgain the Bears by 74 yards. The Pack simply did themselves in with turnovers and I look for them to respond in a big way in this revenge match-up with the Lions. Back at Lambeau Field just a few weeks ago, the Lions marched into Green Bay and got their first win there since '91. The Packers are ready to avenge that loss and they catch the Lions at the perfect time to do just that. Detroit is off of a blowout win over the Eagles on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions have now won three straight games but Detroit is 2-8 ATS when they are on a winning streak of two games or more. Overall, the Lions are 3-6 ATS this season (and 6-11 ATS the last three seasons) when they are an underdog. In this match-up Detroit is only getting 3 points against the Packers and Green Bay should win this one in a true road rout. The Packers are 14-6 ATS as a road favorite in divisional games. In Green Bay's most recent road game they went into Minnesota and blasted the Vikings by a 30-13 final score. The Packers defense is giving up about 7 points per game less than Detroit is so far this season. Not only do they have the better defense, Green Bay also has the stronger ground game attack on offense and I look for that rushing attack to wear down the Lions here as the Packers get the revenge win on the road.

I am playing on SEATTLE (vs Pittsburgh) as my *10 NFL Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 4:25 PM ET - Even though Seattle has had a pair of home losses this season the home of the "12th Man" is still a tough place for visitors to play. The Seahawks have a 21-4 straight-up record here the last 3 years combined. Seattle is 6-1 ATS when they are a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Hawks know how to turn it on at this time of year as they are 7-2 ATS the last three seasons combined in Weeks 10 through 13. Even though Marshawn Lynch is hurt, RB Rawls filled in with huge success last week. The Steelers had a bye last week but they actually have a long-term losing record (15-17 ATS) when off of a bye week. It has proven to not be that big of a edge for Pittsburgh. Also, the Steelers history in Seattle is not good with three straight losses both straight-up and ATS. The Seahawks have the much better defense when comparing these two teams. That combined with Seattle's powerful running game are the keys to victory for the Seahawks here. Seattle has given up 13 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Pittsburgh has allowed 20 points or more in 3 of their 4 road games this season. This small line is offering huge line value to a powerful home team that has gotten their season back on track with wins in 3 of their last 4 games. Look for the Seahawks recent surge to continue here.  

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO (vs Arizona) as my *10 NFL Shocker *Game of the Week* on Sunday @ 4:05 ET - The 49'ers struggled again on the road last week but they have been a different team at home all season. This includes 3 outright upsets as a home dog so far this season for San Francisco. Now the Niners take on a Cardinals team that is off of a big road win at Cincinnati last week. QB Palmer wanted that game badly as he faced his former team so don't discount the fact that this could be a tough one for he and the Cardinals in terms of being a flat spot. This is particularly true because the Cards are in a bit of a lookahead here with a big revenge match-up against the Rams up next. That helps to make this the perfect spot to grab the 49'ers as an under-rated underdog capable of being dangerous for a team in a flat spot. The Cardinals are 27-36 ATS when they enter a game on a streak of two or more consecutive wins. The 49'ers have given up an average of only 15.2 points per game in their five home games this season. Look for this match-up to be a lot closer than what the betting markets are forecasting. The Niners are a great value as a double digit underdog in this spot.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (vs Jacksonville) as my *10 NFL *Game of the Month* on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The Jaguars are off of a come from behind win against the Titans last week. Not only that but Jacksonville has now won back to back games for the first time since December of 2013. With that said, I don't foresee the Jags will make it three straight here. Jax will have their hands full with an angry Chargers team. San Diego has not only lost six straight games, they also were thoroughly embarrassed on their home field by the Chiefs last week. That 30 point loss in San Diego means that you can count on a refocused an energized Chargers team hitting the field in Jacksonville on Sunday. Though you wouldn't know it from looking at recent results, these teams are roughly equal across the board except for one area. Looking at yardage production on offense, the Chargers are clearly the better team on offense. That said, the reason for this line has a lot do with recent results and that is what is helping to drive line value toward the underdog Chargers in this one. San Diego is 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, against the AFC South Division, the Chargers have an incredible long-term ATS mark of 24-3. The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS their last five against the AFC West and Jacksonville is also on an ugly 6-11 ATS run in home games. Look for the Chargers to get the upset win here but if they do fall short it should be by a field goal or less. Huge effort from the road dog this week after embarrassment at home last week.

I am playing on CHICAGO (@ Green Bay) as my *10 Turkey Day BEST BET on Thursday @ 8:30 PM ET - The Packers are off of a key divisional win at Minnesota but previously had lost 3 straight. The Bears come into this game off of a tight loss but previously had won 2 straight. The value is clearly with the big dog in bounce back mode especially considering that Green Bay got such a big win on the road last week. Chicago got embarrassed on Thanksgiving Day last year and will be looking to atone for that performance here after they wrapped up last season's appearance by allowing a game-ending 31-3 run to the Lions. Though the records may not reflect it (with the Packers at 7-3 and the Bears at 4-6), statistically Chicago has been a little better than Green Bay on each side of the ball. Additionally, Chicago has an edge in pass protection when looking at this match-up. The Bears had covered 5 of their last 6 before last week's tight loss to Denver. The Packers had failed to cover in 4 straight games before getting the cash against the Vikings. Big value to the big dog in this divisional match-up.

I am playing on DALLAS (vs Carolina) as my *10 Turkey Day Personal Favorite on Thursday @ 4:30 PM ET - The Cowboys are a different team with Tony Romo leading the way. There is no doubt about that. Dallas has gone 16-3 in the last 19 starts Romo has made and he led them to victory against Miami last week. Though Romo had a little rust early in his start against the Dolphins he was able to shake it off and he ended up throwing for 227 yards and two TD's in that game. Also, the Cowboys defense was very impressive against Miami and Dallas has held 3 of their last four opponents to 14 points or less. The Panthers come into this game with a spotless 10-0 record but they've only played one team this season that has a winning record and that was Green Bay. The Packers recent three game losing streaks also shows that the win over The Pack may not even be as impressive as was once thought. The Panthers will have their hands full with a Cowboys team that knows the NFC East is still up for grabs and that seems highly re-energized by Romo's return. The Cowboys were blown out by the Eagles last season on Thanksgiving so they have extra motivation here as well. 

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (@ Detroit) as my *10 Turkey Day ROAST on Thursday @ 12:30 PM ET - Look for QB Mark Sanchez to be much better in his second start for the Eagles. Certainly the first one was ugly as he was a turnover machine in their embarrassing home loss to the Buccaneers Sunday. The Lions are getting a lot of attention from the betting markets leading up to gameday but Detroit is only 3-7 on the season and that is even with back to back wins in their two games since the bye week. Even though the Lions are 'use to' playing on Thanksgiving Day, familiarity hasn't exactly helped them as they are 3-8 ATS in their 11 games on Turkey Day. Overall, the Lions are on a 3-10 ATS run heading into this game. Despite recent disappointment, the Eagles are still very alive in the NFC East race and the Philly defense will be able to focus on the passing attack of the Lions because Detroit possesses the worst rushing attack in the NFL. 

I am playing on SEATTLE (vs San Francisco) as my *10 NFL Game of the Week on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - The 49'ers are winless on the road this season and the average margin of defeat in those game has been 22 points! Even though San Francisco is off of their bye week, the Niners are 2-7-1 ATS when playing after a week off. The 49'ers overall have failed to cover 11 of their last 15 games and they're in trouble here as they head to Seattle at absolutely the wrong time. The Niners are facing  Seahawks team that is not in a friendly mood after they blew a 29-25 late lead last week and lost to the Cardinals in Seattle. The Hawks battled back from an early 19-0 deficit in that game but, to end up still coming up short at home, Seattle will be ready to explode with energy with the "12th man" behind them in their noisy home stadium Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks dominated in a 20-3 win at San Francisco earlier this season. The Niners did get a tight win before their bye week (versus Atlanta) but QB Blaine Gabbert did throw two picks in that game. Seattle is the much stronger defense and also is quite superior on offense in comparison with the struggling 49'ers. With that said, the big points here are actually quite manageable as the Seahawks should dominate even more than they did in San Francisco earlier this season. The Niners are 0-3 ATS in divisional games this season. The Seahawks, in games played in the second half of a season, are on a 6-0 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. Seattle takes San Fran behind the woodshed Sunday - a true whipping to atone for their home loss to the Cardinals last week. 

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (vs Kansas City) as my *10 AFC West *GAME OF THE YEAR* on Sunday @ 4:05 ET - Only Tom Brady has thrown for more yardage than Phillip Rivers this season. Look for Rivers and the Chargers to test a mediocre Chiefs pass defense throughout this match-up Sunday afternoon. The problem for Kansas City is their own passing attack on offense is too weak to keep up with high-flying Chargers. The Chiefs also give up too many sacks and they were fortunate in their win over the Broncos last week. Kansas City won despite gaining only 303 yards in the game. Certainly some credit has to go to the Chiefs defense for the 5 INTs in the game but the majority of the reasoning for all the picks was simply Peyton Manning looking like his career may be done! With the Chiefs off of that big upset win at Denver (and it was a revenge win) and with San Diego off of their bye week, this is the perfect spot to back the Chargers. San Diego is ready to bounce back after a much needed bye week followed a tough, late loss at home to the Bears on Monday night two weeks ago. The Chargers get their shot at revenge now as they host a Chiefs team that beat them in both meetings last season. Kansas City was so hungry for that revenging win over Denver last week and the Chiefs are on a 3-9 ATS run when off of a divisional game. The Chargers are on a 4-0 ATS run when off of a Monday Night football game.

I am playing on TENNESSEE (@ Jacksonville) as my *10 Main Event on Thursday @ 8:25 ET - The Titans are in a nice bounce back spot here. Two weeks ago they responded well under interim head coach Mularkey and got an outright upset win over New Orleans in the Superdome but they followed it up with a poor effort last week. After being held to just 11 first downs and 242 yards in their loss to Carolina last week, look for the Titans to respond with a big effort this week at Jacksonville. The Jaguars are off of an upset win at Baltimore last week. The Jags got the game winning field goal (a 53 yarder!) as time expired as Jacksonville benefited from four Ravens turnovers. The Jaguars allowed nearly 400 yards of offense to the Ravens and Jacksonville also is likely to be emotionally spent after getting a last second win like that on the road. The Jags have gotten the ATS cover in just 7 of their last 27 home games. Keys in looking at this match-up are the situational edge (Tenn off loss, Jax off win), the fact that the Titans have the much better overall defense, and Tennessee has the much better pass rush in comparison with Jacksonville. The Titans are 6-2-1 ATS in Thursday games. The Jaguars are 1-3 ATS this season in games with a line in the range of -3 to +3. 

I am playing on HOUSTON (@ Cincinnati) as my *10 Main Event on Monday @ 8:30 ET - Even though the Texans have a losing record this season they have been very competitive and actually have outgained their opponents overall on the year. In this match-up Houston is a big underdog and this line appears to be inflated. Houston knows they come into this game with a chance to tie the idle Colts (bye week this week) at the top of the AFC South standings. The Bengals have a ridiculous 7-0-1 ATS mark after their big win over the Browns last week. Truly the big difference between these teams this season has been turnovers. Statistically the Texans and Bengals aren't that different. The Texans have been strong against the pass this season and their aerial attack on offense has produced very well. The key is for Houston to cut down on their turnovers. The Texans have done that and they've now won 2 of their last 3 games. Even though the Bengals are off of a Thursday night game (allowing for some extra rest) the Texans benefit even more here from being off of their bye week. In 8 games this season Houston has only lost two games by more than 7 points. For the Bengals, only 3 of their last 7 games have been won by more than 6 points. The points are simply too big here. Look for a competitive game all the way through. Texans confidence boosted by the big win over Tennessee before their bye week. Held the Titans to just 6 points. It will be tough for the Bengals to create much separation in this Monday night match-up. 

I am playing on SEATTLE (vs Arizona) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 8:30 ET - Big revenge game for Seattle after losing at Arizona earlier this season. Now the Seahawks get the Cardinals in their house where "the 12th man" often is a factor in the loudest venue in the NFL. Both teams are off of their bye week and Marshawn Lynch, recovering from his abdominal injury, is listed as probable for this one. The bruising running back will be utilized to wear down the Cardinals defense and chew up clock in this one as the Hawks look to keep the highly ranked Cards offense off of the field as much as possible. The Cardinals are particularly strong with their aerial attack this season but the Hawks strength on defense is against the pass. Overall, the Seahawks have given up just 12 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 21 points per game in their last five games. The way the Seahawks play at home, so tough on defense, I look for the strength of the Hawks defense over the Cardinals defense to be a huge key here. The Cards defense is solid but not on the same level as the Seahawks and this is particularly key when the game is being played at Seattle. Seattle had won (and covered) 3 straight games against the Cardinals before the loss at Arizona early this season. Sunday it is payback time.

I am playing on MIAMI (@ Philadelphia) as my *10 BEST BET Sunday @ 1 ET - The Eagles were fortunate to eke out an overtime win at Dallas in the Sunday night game last week. The Cowboys had 27 first downs in the game while the Eagles had only 16. Once again, as has happened often this season, the Eagles could not get their run game going last week. Miami has been solid against the pass this season so with the Eagles already struggling on the ground and having to try and beat the Dolphins through the air, this has set up nicely to be a value spot for Miami plus the big points. Miami is off of a loss at Buffalo last week but the Dolphins had 29 first downs in that game while the Bills had just 18 first downs. As you can see, both the Dolphins and Eagles were involved in unusual games last week where the scoring didn't coincide with the way the games truly played out on the field. This is leading to some solid line value for the underdog in this game. Miami has only another non-conference game on deck. For the Eagles, they do have an NFC foe on deck and plus Philly got the much desired revenge win at Dallas last week. That sets this up well in terms of the scheduling situation favoring Miami. The Dolphins are 31-18-1 ATS as a road dog and I expect Miami to add another W to that ATS mark on Sunday.

I am playing on CLEVELAND (@ Pittsburgh) as my *10 NFL Game of the Week on Sunday @ 1 ET - The Steelers edged out Oakland last week but they were helped by turnovers as the Raiders turned it over 4 times. That certainly aided Pittsburgh as they were able to notch the three point victory. The Steelers did allow 440 yards to Oakland last week and that has to be a concern for Pittsburgh as they head into this divisional battle Sunday. The Browns are licking their wounds a bit after getting roughed up at Cincinnati last week but the extra time off (that was a Thursday game) does help them here. With Ben Roethlisberger again hurt for Pittsburgh, I look for the Steelers to fail to cover for a fourth straight game. Pittsburgh's track record as a home favorite in this price range is poor as the Steelers have gone 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. In home games with a total in a range of 38.5 to 42 points, the Steelers are 1-4 ATS. Cleveland is 7-4 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Browns also are 36-25 ATS in road games with a total in a range of 38.5 to 42 points. Look for the return of QB Josh McCown to spark the Browns on Sunday as they go all out in an upset bid heading into their bye week.

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO (vs Atlanta) as my *10 NFL Game of the Week @ 4:05 ET Sunday - The 49'ers are going to surprise people today. The QB change was needed. Gabbert is coming in for Kaepernick and I expect this to spark the Niners in a big way on Sunday. As it is, San Francisco has played much better at home in comparison with on the road this season and we certainly haven't seen the Falcons blowing teams away very often this season. As a result, there is great line value here with the sizable home dog. Atlanta is 6-2 on the season but 4 of their 6 wins have been by 6 points or less. Also, the Falcons haven't blown out team in over a month when they annihilated Houston on October 4th. As for the Niners, they are 2-2 at home this season and San Francisco will get a spark with the QB change today. Remember there have been some flashes of significant success on offense for the Niners this season and those did come at home. San Francisco put up 230 yards on the ground against the Vikings and 326 yards through the air against the Ravens. With the QB change sparking the entire offensive unit, I expect a big day for SF against a Falcons defense that has allowed an average of nearly 250 passing yards per game in their road games this season. Atlanta is 3-8 ATS when off of a divisional game and they lost to Tampa Bay last week. The Niners are 8-4 ATS in games in NFL weeks 5 through 9 the past 3 seasons.

I am playing on the NEW YORK JETS (vs Jacksonville) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The Jets lost by a pair of touchdowns to the Raiders on the West Coast last week. With that said, New York is ready to respond in a big way this week. The Jets are hosting  Jacksonville team that had a bye last week after going to London the week before. Even though the Jaguars won that game at London, Jacksonville was quite fortunate. The Jags barely hung on for the win against the Bills and that is helping to offer some line value here as, arguably, Jacksonville won a game they did not deserve to win. The Jags are one of the worst teams in the league defending the pass and, on offense, Jacksonville has struggled in the run game. These are weaknesses that the Jets will take advantage of with their game planning. The Jaguars are a poor 14-31-1 ATS when they face teams from outside their division. The Jets, will be looking to bounce back after an embarrassing effort out West and New York is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Jets have one of the top defenses in the league (last week's effort being an aberration) and the Jags are 13-23-2 in their last 38 games as an underdog. Jets should win this one in a blowout!

I am playing on CLEVELAND (@ Cincinnati) as my *10 NFL Thursday Game of the Year @ 8:25 ET - The Browns turn to Johnny Manziel in this one. The double digits being offered to Cleveland are a huge value here. The Browns blew the cover in the second half last week against the Cardinals and that has helped to keep this line up higher than it should be. Cleveland has forced 8 turnovers in their 3 last three games and that could be a factor in this game as well. The Browns are facing the Bengals at an opportune time to spring the upset. The Bengals are off of a hard fought late game win at Pittsburgh Sunday. That win over a hated rival was an emotional one for the Bengals and it is going to be difficult for Cincinnati to maintain that same level of high intensity in back to back weeks. Also, the Bengals are winless and 0-2 ATS in their Thursday appearances in recent seasons. As a favorite of 10 or more points, Cincinnati is on a longterm 1-5 ATS run. The Browns are 18-9 ATS as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 points. Cleveland also is undefeated and 2-0 ATS in their Thursday appearances in recent seasons. In a road game with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points, the Browns are on an 8-2 ATS run. The value is with the big points and the hungry underdog in Thursday Night NFL.

I am playing on INDIANAPOLIS (@ Carolina) as my *10 MNF Main Event - The Colts are off of back to back losses. This has only happened one other time this season and just one other time the prior two seasons combined. Each time, Indianapolis responded to the back to back defeats by getting a straight-up win in their next game. While that may be a bit much to ask for against the undefeated Panthers, the fact is there is a lot of value with the points being offered to the Colts in this one. Indianapolis lost their first two games this season and they did rally for a road win in their next game. The Colts are 5-2 ATS in road games with a total in a range of 45.5 to 49 points as this total is. Indianapolis also is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played on grass. Carolina may try to slow this game down with their potent running attack. In my opinion that even makes having the points with the Colts that much more attractive because I feel the Panthers are going to struggle to pull away in this game and the Colts (especially with having Andrew Luck in the pocket) could absolutely spring the upset here or be in line for the back door cover (if needed). *10 MNF Main Event INDIANAPOLIS

I am playing on DALLAS (vs Seattle) as my *10 Game of the Week on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - Look for a much better game from Matt Cassel today. The Cowboys did move the ball well against the Giants last week but they were done in by turnovers. That has been a recurrent them for Dallas this season ever since Tony Romo went down with an injury. The Cowboys offense has moved the ball well but then shot themselves in the foot. Now that Cassel was able to shake off the rust last week, I look for less mistakes today and I expect the Cowboys to continue to move the ball well. The Cowboys attack on offense should be further bolstered by the return of Dez Bryant as the star wideout is listed as probable for this game and expected to make his return to the lineup. The Cowboys will certainly be fired up about facing the back to back NFC champs and I like the home dog value Dallas is getting in this spot. The Cowboys are 12-6 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons. Also, specifically as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Dallas is on a longterm 8-4 ATS run. When on a losing streak of 2 games or more the Cowboys have responded with a solid 33-21 SU record and 30-21-3 ATS. Weeks 5 through 9 of an NFL season have not been kind to Seahawks backers in recent seasons. The last 3 years in Weeks 5 through 9 Seattle has gone 3-9 ATS. The Hawks are off of a divisional win over San Francisco and they have Arizona on deck after their upcoming bye week. That makes this a difficult spot for Seattle and it is a perfect home dog spot with Dallas who should get a boost with the return of Dez Bryant.

I am playing on ST LOUIS (vs San Francisco) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - St Louis has given up a total of just 18 points in their last two home games. That doesn't bode well for the 49'ers offense to get back on track today. San Francisco's offense has been struggling badly as they've been held to 7 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. The Niners were held under 200 yards of offense in each of those 3 games and San Francisco is simply not getting good QB play right now. The Niners have lost five of their last six games while the Rams have won two of their past three games. As an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points the 49'ers have gone 3-8 ATS the last 3 seasons combined. In divisional games San Francisco is 0-2 ATS this season and 5-10 ATS the last 3 seasons combined. Since they are off of a loss to a division foe (Seattle) you might would expect San Francisco to bounce back here but they are 2-4 SU and ATS when they are off of a divisional loss. The Rams have gone 6-2 ATS in the past two Novembers and they get this November off to a good start as well. The Niners had more punts than first downs last week! The anemic offense of San Francisco is once again the difference maker in this one.

I am playing on BALTIMORE (@ Arizona) as my *10 Game of the Week - The Ravens are 0-5-1 ATS on the season but they've actually played a number of close games and I feel the spread here with Arizona has gotten out of hand. Baltimore's six games this season have all been decided by 6 points or less! The Ravens lone straight-up victory came by 3 points and their five losses came by an average margin of defeat of just 4.4 points! Now they are dogs of more than a TD and they've played a tougher schedule than have the Cardinals. Arizona, coming into this week's action, has played just one team all season that currently has a winning record on the season. All of the prior opponents of the Cardinals had just two wins on the season except for Pittsburgh and that Steelers team just beat the Cards by double digits last week. By the way, that's the same Steelers team against which the Ravens have their lone victory of the season. The Steelers enter this week with a 4-2 record on the season and Baltimore also has faced Denver and Cincinnati. Both of these teams area undefeated 6-0 on the season. That said, the combined record of these three teams is 16-2 and, as you can see from this, the Ravens have indeed faced the much tougher schedule. A couple long-term trends are also in play here as the Cardinals are 1-7 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points and Arizona also is 2-7 ATS on Monday nights. The Ravens are 6-2 ATS in non-conference action. *10 Game of the Week BALTIMORE

I am playing on DETROIT (vs Minnesota) as my *10 Best Bet Sunday @ 1 PM ET - Adrian Peterson is a question mark heading into this divisional match-up and that certainly won't do the Vikings any favors. Minnesota is off of a big win over Kansas City so the Lions are catching the Vikes at the right time in my opinion. Detroit has been right on the cusp of a victory in so many games this season but they have fallen just short...until last week...and I feel that the big much-needed win that the Lions got last week will be a spring board for future weeks. Look for Detroit to win huge today on their home field and I like having them as a home dog in this match-up. The Lions are playing with revenge from their loss at Minnesota earlier this season and Detroit is facing a Vikes team that has been outgained in each of their last three games yet won two of them. Look for the Vikings good fortune to run out this week. 

I am playing on ST LOUIS (vs. Cleveland) as my *10 Personal Favorite @ 1 ET Sunday - Perfect timing for the Rams to catch Cleveland. The Browns are off of a heart-breaking overtime loss at home against the Broncos last week. Cleveland had their chances to knock off one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the league but the ultimate disappointment of falling just short there is something that is hard to then take on the road. Now the Browns have to deal with a rested Rams team that is off of their bye week. In their week before the bye St Louis lost at Green Bay but the Rams actually outgained the Packers in that match-up. In fact the Rams defense has been among top performers so far this season and I look for a huge performance from the St Louis D since they are coming off of a loss and a bye week. The Rams have allowed an average of just 19 points per game in their last 3 games while Cleveland has given up at least 26 points in all but one of their games this season. There is a huge difference in the quality of defenses of these two teams. Combining that with the strong situational edges the Rams have here and this play easily got the call as my *10 Personal Favorite for this week. 

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (vs NY Giants) as my *10 Main Event on Monday @ 8:30 PM ET - Philadelphia is off a blowout win over New Orleans where they got their offense back in top form with a 519 yard performance. That gives the Eagles plenty of confidence as they now take on a Giants team that barely escaped with a 3 point win over the 49'ers last week. Though it would be nearly impossible for the Giants to overlook the Eagles it is still worth mentioning that the Giants do have the Cowboys on deck. Dallas handed them an early season loss in excruciating fashion. That said, if the Giants get down in this one it would be easy to start looking ahead to their opportunity for revenge against Dallas coming up later this week. The Eagles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 match-ups with the Giants and always sem to give New York a lot of problems. There have been multiple "miracles at the meadowlands" through the years but, in this case, this match-up is in Philly where the Eagles are on a long-term 40-19 straight up run when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. With that type of success, and knowing this point spread is at the lower end of that scale, don't be suprised if the Eagles get another big ATS win over the Giants here. *10 Main Event PHILADELPHIA Monday.

I am playing on INDIANAPOLIS (vs New England) as my 10* Rivalry Game of the Week - The Colts are healthier this week, they've won three straight games, and the Patriots are simply getting too much respect from odds makers here. Indianapolis has given up 20 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and they play this game with playoff revenge from January's playoff beating in Foxboro. Getting this game at home is a huge edge and the Pats are 3-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. The Colts have failed to cover their first two home games this season but they entered this year having gone 12-5 ATS in home games the prior two seasons. With better health (Luck and Hilton) and with the confidence of a three game winning streak in tow, the Colts have what it takes to give the Patriots all they can handle here. The result should be that Indianapolis resumes their strong ATS trend of covering in home games.

I am playing on BALTIMORE (@ San Franciso) as my 10* Non-Conf. Personal Fav - The Ravens, after finally getting into the win column with a key win over Pittsburgh, are livid again after they dropped last week's game to the Browns. A tight loss to Cleveland means Baltimore needs to get back on track in a hurry as they are already 1-4 on the season. With a pair of road games now on the docket for Baltimore (and a tough one up head at Arizona), the Ravens know they must take care of business at San Francisco this week. The 49'ers have lost 4 straight games and given up 34 points per game in those 4 match-ups. With that said, this looks like the perfect match-up for Baltimore to get back on track. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in non-conference games the last three seasons combined. One might think that Baltimore would be flat when coming off of an AFC North game. However, the Ravens are 9-4 ATS when off of a divisonal game. This is a very small line on this game and the 49'ers are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games as an underdog. The Niners are averaging just 15 points per game this season while the Ravens have averaged 27.5 points per game in their last 4 games. San Francisco simply won't be able to keep up here and this one should be all Baltimore.

I am playing on DETROIT (vs Chicago) as my *10 Game of the Month on Sunday @ 1 ET - The Bears have snuck out back to back wins but, in my mind, that is merely helping to give us some nice line value here in the ability to, at a short price, fade a team that easily could be winless on the season just as the Lions are. Despite being without a victory this season, Detroit has been playing better of late and have definitely had some close calls this season where they have come up just short. At home, in a divisional game, and in desperate need of a victory, I expect the Lions to come up big here. The Bears lost their first three games this season by an average margin of defeat of 20 points per game. The Lions put up 436 yards of offense against Arizona last week but fell short due to 6 turnovers. Even though turnovers have been an issue for Detroit this season, the Lions actually were "even" in turnovers on the season before last week's 0-6 debacle against the Cardinals. Detroit is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite. Also, the Lions have won each of their last 4 games against Chicago and I expect another big victory over the Bears early Sunday.

I am playing on NEW ORLEANS (vs Atlanta) as my *10 NFL Main Event Thursday @ 8:25 ET - The Falcons are undefeated on the season but certainly have been on the verge of a loss on more than one occasion this season and I believe lady luck should finally run out on this team this week. The Saints got utterly embarrassed at Philadelphia last week and New Orleans will be hungry for a bounceback on national TV in a primetime weeknight game. The Saints were victimized by turnovers last week but I do not expect that to be repeated here as Drew Brees looks to get his team right back on track. New Orleans did defeat the Cowboys two weeks ago and can get the job done in another key primetime match-up tonight. Over the past 9 years, the Saints have won 13 of their 18 meetings with Atlanta and here they are getting 3.5 points which is offering great line value to the hungry home dog. *10 NFL Main Event Thursday NEW ORLEANS.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (vs. Pittsburgh) as my 10* MNF Main Event @ 8:30 PM ET Monday - Big win for the Chargers last week to get back to .500 on the season. They have outgained 3 of the 4 opponents they have faced this season and I look for their offense to continue rolling tonight. They've averaged over 300 yards through the air so far on the year and Pittsburgh (other than the Rams game) has given up some big yardage this season. Over the last three years the Steelers have been a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points three times. They lost all 3 games and failed to notch a single cover in those three games too. The Chargers will be going for their 4th straight cover on Monday Night Football. Pittsburgh squandered a big lead against the Ravens in thier last game and that makes them a dangerous team to back right now as no lead is safe and getting backdoored for a defeat is always a possibility when playing like that. With that said, and with the small line being offered on the Chargers here, the home team is the play in this one. The Chargers are on an 18-11-1 ATS run in home games where they are favored against a non-divisional opponent. *10 MNF Main Event on SAN DIEGO.

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO (@ NY Giants) as my *10 Main Event on Sunday @ 8:30 PM ET - After a key divisional win (over Washington) and a big win over a team (Buffalo) that had been playing well, I look for the Giants to fall flat on Sunday. In the NFL it is so difficult for a team to play at a high level of emotion week after week after week as it is so exhausting. That said, another key that is going agianst the Giants here is that this is also a lookahead spot. New York has big divisional games on deck with the Eagles and Cowboys coming up after this game against the Niners. On the other hand, San Francisco is fully focused on the task at hand Sunday night as they have now suffered three straight losses and their offense struggled badly in the last two. On deck for the 49'ers is a non-conference match-up with Baltimore so certainly there is no distraction here for San Francisco. They are hungry for a win and struggling teams often pull together in primetime games like this as it is their chance to shine on national TV and put the recernt weeks' frustrations behind them. The Giants have been victimized by blown late leads earlier this season (at Dallas and versus Atlanta) and that means no lead is safe with this team. The 49'ers are on a 27-14 ATS run in games with a total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Giants are 1-4 straight-up and ATS in their last 5 against NFC West teams and, again, they have some key NFC East battles up ahead as a distraction here. *10 Main Event on SAN FRANCISCO Sunday.

I am playing on BALTIMORE (vs Cleveland) as my *10 Situational Game of the Year on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The Ravens have extra rest here and come in riding an emotional high after their come from behind win over the Steelers in Thurday night action. As for the Browns, they are off of a deflating loss to the Chargers and the fact they traveled to the West Coast for that game also leads to more value here for Baltimore. From a situational perspective, the Browns off of a deflating road loss on the West Coast combined with the Ravens spirits being buoyed by a huge win over the divsion rival Steelers last Thursday sets this one up very nicely. The Browns have allowed at least 30 points in each of their two road games this season. The Ravens are averging 27 points per game in their last 3 games. Baltimore is 9-3 ATS when off of a divisional game including 6-1 ATS when off of a divisional win. Cleveland is just 4-14 straight-up in road games the last 3 seasons combined. That said, with the reasonable spread posted on this game, I am very comfortable laying the points with the Ravens here. *10 Situatiional Game of the Year on Baltimore.

I am playing on TAMPA BAY (vs Jacksonville) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The Buccaneers lost last week despite a 411 to 244 yardage edge against the Panthers. As you would expect, it was the "turnover bug" that was the difference maiker there. The key is that the unusual result last week helps to offer nice line value this week with Tampa Bay. The Bucs were fully capable of putting up big numbers against a solid Carolina team last week but the scoreboard did not reflect the domination on the field. That has helped keep this line down lower than it should be against Jacksonville on Sunday. Tampa Bay should crush the Jags. Jacksonville is in a tough spot here as they play their third straight road game after losing the first two by a combined score of 67 to 30. In their three losses this season the Jaguars have been held to an average of just 13 points per game. The Jags have lost 11 straight road games and are on a 1-8 ATS run in non-conference games. *10 Personal Fave on TAMPA BAY Sunday.

I am playing on DETROIT (@ Seattle) as my *10 MAIN EVENT on Monday @ 8:30 PM ET - With Marshawn Lynch's hamstring injury there is extra line value here the the Lions. The Seahawks are off of a shutout win last week but October has not been their month. It's not just the long-term (29-56 ATS in October), it is the short term as well (2-6 ATS in October the past two seasons). The Seahawks are hosting a Detroit team that is hungry to get into the win column after coming up short against Denver in primetime last week. The Lions actually had more first downs than the Broncos in that game but they lost by double digits on the scoreboard. That is helping to result in this inflated line here at Seattle. Note that dogs in Monday night football are on an 8-2 ATS run on MNF and that is even with the Chiefs non-cover last week against the Packers. Since blowing that first game at San Diego early this season when Detroit let a huge lead get away, the Lions have only been outgained by an average of 45 yards in their past two games. They will also play tough and should be 'right with' Seattle all the way through this one. The Seahawks are just 2-4 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points the last 3 seasons and two of those four losses were straight-up defeats. The Lions could get the upset here and finally get into the win column. Certainly they appear to be well worth the points.

I am playing on NEW ORLEANS (vs Dallas) as my *10 Main Event Sunday @ 8:30 PM ET - Why is an 0-3 team favored here against a team that very nearly could be 3-0 on the season? Precisely! Don't fall for the trap in this one. The Saints deserve to be favored to say the least! New Orleans is at home, hungry, with their backs against the wall. New Orleans is facing a Dallas team that is still licking its wounds after allowing a huge come back to the Falcons last week. That was a devasting loss for the Cowboys to take and it further deteriorates the confidence level has when Brandon Weeden is their quarterback. As a starter, Weeden's struggles are well documented. Adding even more pressure for Weeden is the fact that he's not only having to replace Tony Romo here, it's the fact that he doesn't have Dez Bryant to throw to either. With injuries mounting for the Cowboys, and with the Saints about as hungry of a team as you will ever see, this is a great spot to back a short home favorite. The Saints went 11-5 at home the past two seasons and, after starting this season's home schedule with a tough loss two weeks ago, look for New Orleans to respond in powerful fashion tonight as the Saints improve to 6-1 (86%) ATS in their last 7 home games against Dallas.

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO (vs Green Bay) as my *10 NFL Game of the Week Sunday @ 4:25 ET - Nothing went right for the 49'ers last week as four turnovers helped lead the way to a blowout loss at Arizona. Now the Niners get a chance to redeem themselves on their home field and San Francisco is known for playing much tougher at home. The 49'ers are so tough at home in fact that they have only been a home dog 3 times in the past 6 years. How did they do in those 3 games? A perfect 3-0 ATS. I look for another strong performance here at home from the Niners as they catch the Packers off of back to back big wins. Green Bay is off of a big Monday night win over Kansas City and, prior to that game, the Packers got a big double revenge win over the Seahawks. That makes this a tough spot for Green Bay to have very much left in the tank for a rare road trip west. The Niners are 6-1 SU and ATS in the month of October the past two seasons. The Packers are 0-2 SU and ATS the last two seasons when off of a Monday Night Football game. Also, Green Bay is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Indeed the 49'ers are a dangerous dog here. 

I am playing on ST LOUIS (@ Arizona) as my *10 NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR Sunday @ 4:25 ET - Arizona is off of a huge win last week but certainly that huge margin of victory was helped by the fact that they were the beneficiary of four turnovers in that game. The Rams are off of a loss last week but the defense impressed as they allowed just 12 points to the Steelers. The St Louis defense has been quite strong so far this season with an average of only 18 points per game allowed the last two weeks. Also, St Louis did knock off Seattle in week one this season. The Rams have proven they can play with anybody this season and this line is simply inflated due to the big success that the Cardinals have had so far this season. With a perfect 3-0 mark on the season and an average margin of victory of 25.7 points per game so far this year, Arizona is overconfident heading into this game. The Rams are a dangerous road dog that is 5-2 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Cardinals have just one ATS cover the last five times they enter a match-up off of a win against a divisional foe. With their easy win over San Francisco last week, look for Arizona to get caught under-estimating the Rams and their solid defensive unit. 

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (vs Cleveland) as my *10 Blue Marlin Sunday @ 4:05 ET - The Chargers didn't just lose last week...they were embarrassed in their 31-14 loss at Minnesota. Now that San Diego is back home, look for them to take out their frustration by dominating a lesser foe. The Browns defense was scorched by Oakland last week as the Raiders piled up over 450 yards of offense. Cleveland has problems on the other side of the ball too as they've been plagued by turnovers with 7 already in the first three games. The Browns are 0-4 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the Chargers are 3-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and on a longterm 30-21 ATS run in that role. The Browns have the worst run defense and the league and the Chargers did outgain the Vikings by 85 yards last week so the final score was not a true reflection of the battle on the field. This is all leading to a lot of value for San Diego in this spot.

I am playing on DETROIT (vs Denver) @ 8:30 PM ET Sunday as my *10 Main Event - Perfect time to back the Lions. The public will likely be all over Denver here as they see the 2-0 Broncos taking on an 0-2 Detroit team and they see the smallish 3 point line at the game. Of course the contrarian angle for this game, and in my opinion the right angle for this game, is to back a Lions team that is ready to fight back. When a team has its back against the wall that is often the best time to back them and the hungry Lions are ready to respond in their home opener after tough back to back road losses to open up the season. The Broncos have been fortunate so far this season as they only beat the Ravens because of a game saving INT in the end zone with just seconds left and then, last week, Denver was very fortunate to escape Kansas City with a win. Off of that key divisional win, look for the Broncos to fall flat here. Denver is 2-8 ATS on artificial turf and 6-17 ATS against NFC North opponents. Detroit is looking to go to 3-0 ATS the last 3 years when they are off of a loss against a divisional rival. Look for them to bounce back off of the loss to NFC North foe Minnesota. The Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home openers. *10 Main Event on DETROIT Sunday

I am playing HOUSTON (vs Tampa Bay) as my NFL *10 Game of the Month on Sunday @ 1 ET - The Texans are 0-2 and JJ Watt and the entire front seven are fired up about rectifying that situation and, in the process, getting a ton of pressure on Jameis Winston and the entire Buccaneers backfield. From a situational standpoint, this one is set up quite nicely with the Bucs off of their big upset win over the Saints as a huge dog last week. With Houston off of a road loss at Carolina last week, and Tampa Bay off of the big road win as a sizable dog, I am expecting a blowout in this one. That front seven of Houton's defense will set the tone early in this game and the Texans offense actually has moved the ball quite well this season but they just don't have the points to show for it. Look for Houston to get those big points this week. Tampa Bay is on a 2-11 ATS run against AFC South opponents. The Texans are 40-25 ATS when they enter a game off of two or more consecutive losses. In match-ups where the total on the game is between 35.5 and 42 points, the Buccaneers are 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS. With this line holding just under a touchdown, there is huge value on backing the Texans for the blowout win. With their backs against the wall, they will respond at home. *10 Game of the Month HOUSTON

I am playing on INDIANAPOLIS (vs. NY Jets) as my NFL 10* Game of the Week on Monday @ 8:30 ET - While the Jets are off of a big win by a 21 point margin over the Browns in Week One, the Colts will be very hungry to bounce back here as they are off of an embarrassing loss at Buffalo where they lost to the Bills by a double digit margin. It may seem they are a little pricey in this spot with the line in the neighborhood of a -7 but the Colts actually went 8-2 ATS the past two seasons when they are a favorite in range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Also, in home games with an over/under in the range of 45.5 to 49 points, the Colts have gone a perfect 8-0 ATS the past two seasons. The Jets are 2-4-1 ATs as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points the past two seasons. Although the Jets won huge in week one a lot of that had to do with being the beneficiary of 5 Browns turnovers. The yardage in the Jets game weas very nearly equal so it certainly was not as impressive as the final score may have implied. As for the Colts, off of a tough defeat and ready to bounce back huge from that, I completely trust Andrew Luck and Company to have a huge game here. They lost the turnover batlle with the Bills 3-0 and that was a big difference-maker last week. INDIANAPOLIS is my NFL 10* Game of the Week

I am playing on JACKSONVILLE (vs Miami) as my 10* AFC Best Bet @ 4:05 ET Sunday.

The Dolphins did get their season off to a winning start with a road win over the Redskins last Sunday. However, Miami was outgained by nearly 100 yards in that game and their offensive performance was particularly concerning. it's tough to go on the road and win in back to back weeks and this is especially true if you don't have an offensive system that is firing on all cylinders. The Dolphins will face an angry Jaguars team that lost 20 to 9 at home against Carolina last week. That is a deceiving final score as Jacksonville was equal statistically with the Panthers and that "false final" is helping to lend some line value to the home dog Jags this week. A low-scoring battle is expected here and the Dolphins are a poor 23-35 straight-up in road games with a posted over/under in a range of 38.5 to 42 points. That is a straight-up record and here they Dolphins not only must win straight-up, Miami is being asked to cover a sizable point spread on the road. I don't see that happenig. Big line value for the hungry home dog here.

10* AFC Best Bet on Jacksonville Sunday.

I am playing on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS (vs Detroit) @ 1 ET Sunday as my 10* Personal Favorite.

Detroit is a "shaken" team right now. It's hard to not have your confidence shaken after you've blown a huge lead like they did at San Diego last week. The Lions jumped out huge on the Chargers in Week One but then fell apart and blew the lead and the game. Now this is a team that will play with that in the backs of their minds right now - a team with which, therefore, no lead is truly safe. To fix all this the next week is a daunting task and this is especially true when now taking to the road and facing a division rival. The Vikings are not only a divisional foe, Minnesota is also an angry tream off of an embarrassing loss at San Francisco on Monday night football. Look for the Vikings to bounce right back as Minny has won 19 of the last 23 match-ups between these teams in Minnesota. With a low line here but high odds for the straight-up win, you can see why I like the Vikes minus the short number in this spot. Just like last week, look for the Lions pass defense to get torched. With last week's loss, the Lions are now 6-11 ATS and SU the last 2+ seasons.

10* Personal Favorite on Minnesota Vikings.

I am playing on WASHINGTON (vs St Louis) as my 10* NFC Best Bet @ 1 ET Sunday.

The Rams are off of their huge upset win over the vaunted Seattle Seahawks. I look for that to leave St Louis a little gassed and emotionally drained heading into Week Two. Making a road trip east after a huge win like that is not easy to do and they'll be walking into a hornets nest of sorts. The Redskins are fired up after their tough loss to Miami in week one. The Skins actually outgained the Dolphins by nearly 100 yards but they did themselves in with a couple of costly INTs. The Rams are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 road openers and their win over Seattle was also an OT win last week. Those types of victories are even tougher to come back from the following week. While the Rams are still celebrating their week one upset win, the Redskins are looking for an upset of their own here in Week Two. This is only the 2nd time in the last 4+ seasons that the Rams have been a road favorite. Look for them to struggle in that rare role.

10* NFC Best Bet on Washington Sunday.

At 7:10 ET Monday, I’m playing on ATLANTA (vs. Philadelphia) as my 10* Best Bet.

The Falcons enter a new era with head coach Dan Quinn flipping the script in Atlanta. This franchise has long been known for its offensive prowess, but Quinn has injected the Falcons with a hard-nosed defensive philosophy since coming over from Seattle, where he turned the Seahawks into one of the most feared stop units in the league. There is a major overhaul on both sides of the ball, but while the defense sharpens its teeth in the early going Atlanta can still look to QB Matt Ryan and his talented receiving corps to put some points on the board. Receiver Julio Jones is one of the very best deep threats in the NFL and Roddy White remains a productive target, with seven touchdowns last season. The Eagles enter the Monday Nighter in Year 2 under Chip Kelly, who shook things up this summer. Philadelphia has a major overhaul on offense, with Sam Bradford at QB and DeMarco Murray and Ryan Matthews at RB - all three of which are injury prone. However, it was the defense that should have gotten the bulk of the attention. The Eagles allowed 72 passing plays of 20 or more yards in 2014 – most in the league – and now face a Falcons offense that can air it out. Atlanta is getting very little respect from oddsmakers at home in a huge debut for their revamped team.

I’m playing on ATLANTA as my 10* Best Bet Monday.

At 1:00 ET Sunday, I’m playing on the HOUSTON TEXANS (vs. Kansas City) as my 10* Personal Favorite.

It’s been a rough offseason for the Houston Texans. Not only are they still shaky at quarterback, with Brian Hoyer tabbed as the starter (for now), but they lost star running back Arian Foster to a groin injury for at least a month of regular season action. And until Foster returns and Hoyer gets his feet wet (or they find a better QB), it will be on Houston’s defense to keep this team afloat. Luckily, for the Texans, they have one of the better stop units in the league, headlined by defensive juggernaut J.J. Watt. Houston and its talented defense is getting little love from the bookies in Week 1, tagged as a slim home favorite over the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday. The Texas actually improved on defense this offseason, adding mammoth nose tackle Vince Wilfork and cornerback Johnathan Joseph to go along with a healthy Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney. The Chiefs had trouble scoring against average defenses last season, and will find points hard to come by in Week 1. Kansas City has played musical chairs with its offensive line this summer and comes into Week 1 with a makeshift protection against one of the nastiest pass rushes in the NFL. Houston’s defense will give the Texans offense plenty of chances to score points this Sunday. It might not be pretty in the end but the value is there with Watt & Co.

I’m playing on the Houston Texans as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

At 8:30 p.m. ET Thursday, I’m playing on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (vs. Pittsburgh) as my 10* Main Event.

The defending Super Bowl champs already have a big win on the board and the season hasn’t even started yet. New England has star quarterback Tom Brady under center against the Pittsburgh Steelers after dodging a four-game suspension for his role in the “Deflatgate” scandal. Not that the Patriots really needed any added motivation, but we fully expect Brady, Bill Belichick and the Pats to make things personal Thursday night. New England does have some holes in the receiving corps with Brandon LaFell out and Julian Edelman nursing an ankle injury. But as long as Rob Gronkowski is on the field, Brady should be able to tear apart a soft Steelers secondary. Pittsburgh has the offense to counter – if it had all its parts. The Steelers are without versatile RB LeVeon Bell, center Maurkice Pouncey and No. 2 WR Martavis Bryant, which means New England can focus on slowing down top wideout Antonio Brown Thursday night. The Patriots are golden at Gillette Stadium, boasting a 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 home stands. They’ve also been the smart play against the Steelers, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 head-to-head meetings.

I’m playing on New England as my 10* Main Event Thursday.

I am playing on NEW ENGLAND. The Colts are on a great run and I think oddsmakers have laid out a tempting line for underdog players, but I think the Patriots cover this one on home field against one of their favorite opponents. 
The Colts have been the whipping boys of the Pats recently, with New England winning the last three meetings by an average of 26 points and they covered the spread in those games by an average of more than three touchdowns (21.2 pts). 
This is a different Indianapolis team, you say? Sure, I'll admit the Colts are much improved but I still think the Patriots are the better team and they cover this weekend. 
There is a lot of talk about an improved secondary for Indianapolis, which is true but the Colts are getting too much credit for last week's game against the Broncos. Peyton Manning looked dreadful with errant, fluttering passes sailing off the mark while going 26 of 46.  
The Colts won't have any such luck against Tom Brady and New England. Brady went 33-of-50 last week while throwing for 367 yards and three TDs against what I feel is a much better defense. The Pats used trick plays, Rob Gronkowski and a host of receivers to come back and beat the Ravens. 
The problem for the Colts is they won't know what to worry about with New England when the Pats have the ball. The passing game was in top form last week but the Pats also pounded the Colts for 246 yards rushing when they met in November.
Home field (the Pats are 8-1 ATS last nine games at home vs. teams with a winning record), the Pats' versatile offense and an overrated Colts secondary are the reasons I like New England to win and cover this week. 10* Patriots

(*This line could potentially dip below -7. So it may be wise to wait to play. If waiting, keep a close eye on the movements and act accordingly.)

I am playing on DENVER. Sometimes you wonder whether a playoff bye is good for a team or not but in this case there should be no wondering for the Broncos – it was definitely a good thing. 
After having an early bye in September, the Broncos were a banged up unit with 22 players scrawled on the injury list before Denver’s season finale against Oakland. That included quarterback Peyton Manning and team leading tackler Brandon Marshall, who were back to practice this week and should be ready to go Sunday. 
For those wondering why the Broncos looked like they weren’t in top form in the closing weeks of the season, I believe they were just running out of gas. I think we’ll see a fully re-charged Denver team this week against Indianapolis, which is a huge reason I like the Broncos to cover the number. 
Julius Thomas is another player who benefitted from the rest opportunity after trying to shake an ankle injury since November. He had three touchdown receptions in the first meeting against the Colts, so his return to health is huge for the Broncos. 
Denver’s passing game in general is another reason I really like the Broncos here, not just because the Broncos had the fourth most passing yards per game and second most passing TDs in the NFL this season, but also because the Colts tend to struggle against the best passing teams.  Indianapolis went 1-4 against the top five passing offenses it faced this season and 2-3 against the spread in those games. That included a 31-24 loss to the Broncos to open the season, though Indy scraped out the cover with one point. 
I think with a rejuvenated Broncos squad on home field, Denver will be able to score enough against this defense to cover the number. Luck got hammered in his only other road playoff game of his career last year in New England (43-22) and I’m anticipating another double-digit win for the more experienced home side again this week. 10* Denver

I’m playing on the St. Louis Rams as a 10* Sunday. The Rams aren’t going to the tournament but have plenty of motivation versus the defending Super Bowl champs in the season finale.

St. Louis already has a win over Seattle this season and has covered in four of its last five meeting with the Seahawks. The Rams took a 28-26 victory at home in Week 7, getting some huge plays on special teams including a 90-yard punt return touchdown from Stedman Bailey.

Seattle has struggled to contain returners all season, allowing an average of 11.5 yards per punt and 23.9 yards per kickoff return. The Seahawks face a Rams special teams that has plenty of speed and ranks third in the NFL in punt return average and has taken two returns back to the house. St. Louis could be looking at solid starting field position on most drives, something Seattle is not used to giving away.

The Rams would love nothing more than to finish 2014 on a high note. St. Louis’ season seemed lost when QB Sam Bradford went down with an injury before the schedule started. However, the defense came together and the Rams youngsters picked up the slack on offense.

The Rams have dropped back-to-back contests and are a prideful team, especially on defense. St. Louis has been one of the most dominant pass rushes in the second half of the year. The Rams have 37 sacks, including nine in the last three games, and got to Seattle QB Russell Wilson three times in their last meeting.

St. Louis will bring the same pressure in Week 17, get Wilson on the move and tighten up the coverage down field. The Rams won’t give away anything big down field, so expect this game to be a tight, defensive grinder. That makes this big spread even harder for Seattle to cover.

The Rams ability to get gains on special teams and their defense not allowing any big strikes is why I’m playing on St. Louis as a 10* Sunday.

I’m playing on the Kansas City Chiefs as a 10* Sunday. Kansas City hosts the San Diego Chargers in the season finale. The Bolts have a clear shot at the postseason while the Chiefs need a win over San Diego and a lot of help from other teams in the playoff mix. There’s no shortage of motivation here for the home side.

Kansas City lost for the fourth time in the last five games to Pittsburgh last Sunday, putting its playoff chances in the “slim to none” category. But that won’t stop the Chiefs from going out and playing their AFC West rivals hard – at least relishing the opportunity to play postseason spoilers in Week 17. Arrowhead Stadium will be rocking for the season finale.

Kansas City already scored a win over San Diego back in Week 7, edging the Chargers 23-20 as a 3-point road underdog. The Chiefs limited San Diego QB Philip Rivers to 17-for-31 passing and 205 yards in that game, catching Rivers at a time when he was in the MVP conversation. Rivers limps into the final game of the season nursing a bad back and a chest injury.

The Chargers are ripe for a letdown after a remarkable comeback against the San Francisco 49ers last week. San Diego fell behind 28-7 and battled back to take a 38-35 overtime victory. San Diego’s defense has allowed an average of almost 27.5 points per game in the last five contests.

The rushing defense was mowed over for 355 yards against the 49ers and has allowed 184.3 yards per game in the last three outings. The Bolts face a run-heavy Chiefs playbook with two very capable rushers splitting carries. Running back Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis will see extra action with QB Alex Smith out with a lacerated spleen.

The Chiefs at home and running against a weak San Diego defense is why I’m playing on Kansas City as a 10* Sunday.

I’m playing on the Tennessee Titans as a 10* Sunday. The Titans are playing for pride in the regular season finale, getting a handful of points from the Indianapolis Colts Sunday.

The Colts are coming off a rough loss to Dallas last weekend and can’t improve their playoff standing with a win in Week 17, having already clinched home field for a Wild Card Weekend matchup next weekend. While head coach Chuck Pagano told the media he plans to play his starters, that playing time could diminish with a postseason matchup lurking the next week.

Indianapolis has won four of its last five games heading into Week 17 but has been anything but dominant in those victories, with a 2-2-1 ATS mark in that span. The Colts have been terribly careless with the football, turning the ball over 15 times in that five-game span including three giveaways in the loss to the Cowboys.

Tennessee has a respectable pass rush with 38 sacks on the season and was able to get to the quarterback four times in last Thursday’s loss to Jacksonville. The Titans can go for broke in the season finale and try to get Andrew Luck moving around in the pocket, hopefully making some mistakes. Indianapolis is going with second-year center Khaled Holmes again, so there's a glaring weakness in this Colts' protection.

The Colts have also been beaten up on the ground in recent games. They allowed Dallas to plow the road for 127 yards rushing and have given up an average of 126.3 rushing yards in the last three outings. Tennessee will attempt to control the football and pace of the game after possessing the pigskin for just 17:39 in the first meeting between these AFC South rivals. The Titans actually dominated time of possession versus Jacksonville, at 34:52, so they know how to hog the ball and milk the clock.

With the Colts focused on the postseason and not playing solid football recently, I’m playing on Tennessee as a 10* Sunday.

I’m playing on the Cincinnati Bengals as my 10* Main Event Monday. The final Monday Night Football of the season is shaping up to be an instant classic. The Bengals welcome the Denver Broncos to Paul Brown Stadium, fighting for their playoff lives on the NFL’s primetime stage.

Cincinnati can clinch a postseason ticket with a win at home Monday night. The Bengals have a battle with the rival Pittsburgh Steelers in the season finale, so they won’t leave anything to chance on Monday night. Cincinnati is going to be stingy on both offense and defense versus Denver.

The Bengals best chance to stop Payton Manning & Co. is to keep them on the sidelines, and their dominating run game allows them to do just that. Cincinnati has a two-headed monster on the ground in Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill. The pair rushed for 227 yards on 40 carries in last weekend’s shutout of the Browns, completely controlling the pace of the game.

Cincinnati has rushed for an average of 147.3 yards in its last three games, chewing up an average of 32:14 minutes with the football. Against the Browns, the Bengals hogged the pigskin for almost 39 minutes. Denver is one of the best defenses against the run, but with Bernard and Hill – two very different style runners – keeping fresh legs on the field all game, the Bengals will wear down the Broncos front line and expose the loss of run-stuffing LB Brandon Marshall.

On defense, Cincinnati has started to round into form after an inconsistent year on that side of the ball. Factoring out a rough day against the Steelers in Week 14, the Bengals have limited each of their last four opponents to 13 or fewer points. They go up against a Denver offense that has changed faces in recent weeks.

The Broncos have turned to a shorter, more ground-geared attack. Manning hasn’t gone over 300 yards in four straight games and has completed only 14 passes in each of the past two contests. On top of that, the Broncos QB is nursing a thigh injury. The Bengals front four will get Manning moving in the pocket, testing just how tender that injury really is.

The Bengals are at home and desperate to clinch a postseason pass, with the ability to pound out the pace and limit the Broncos offense. That’s why I’m playing on Cincinnati as a 10* Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the Miami Dolphins as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Dolphins’ playoff hopes are thinning but this game versus the Minnesota Vikings is still a huge must-win situation. Miami is at home to a team coming off a crushing defeat last Sunday.

The Vikings back into this game off a slim 16-14 loss to the Detroit Lions. The Lions took the lead late in the fourth quarter and stole what could have been Minnesota’s third straight win. It was the Vikings’ fifth road loss of the year and makes for a tough week to prepare for the Dolphins.

Run the ball and stop the run is the old adage when it comes to winning football games, and Minnesota can’t do either. The Vikings’ rushing attack has averaged 94 yards per game over the last three contests, including only 76 yards on the ground against Detroit.

Without a respectable run game, the Dolphins pass rush will be all over rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater. Miami comes into Sunday with 34 sacks and will move Bridgewater around in the pocket and force bad decisions. He’s thrown three interceptions to three touchdowns in his last two games, and has five INTs in his last five games.

Minnesota has been beaten up by the run this season. The Vikings, who have undergone a major change on defense under Mike Zimmer, are still getting gashed on the ground. Minnesota has given up an average of 142 rushing yards in its last three games and faces a Dolphins offense that can exploit that weakness and keep the Vikes’ pass rush at bay with a solid ground game.

That will open up the passing game on playaction and help QB Ryan Tannehill find his targets. The Dolphins take a conservative approach to passing the ball, but if the run is established, Tannehill can strike for deep throws to Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline.

The Dolphins needing to win to stay alive in the postseason picture and the Vikings’ letdown and shaky run game is why I’m playing on Miami as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I am playing on an ATLANTA team that I feel is playing its best football of the season. The Falcons are also a strong bet at home, while Pittsburgh’s scoring numbers show the Steelers typically play a step below their capabilities on the road more often than not this season.

The Falcons are 4-2 against the spread at home and a perfect 3-0 as a home underdog, the spot they are in against the Steelers this week. Home dogs in general have been a solid spot for bettors most of the season at 34-30-2 against the spread and an incredible 16-10 ATS over the last month (61.5 percent).

Atlanta has looked like a new team the last two weeks with a win over the Arizona Cardinals (tied for top record in the league) and a respectable 6-point loss in Green Bay against the current Super Bowl favorites on Monday night.

The Steelers are 2-3 straight up and against the spread in their last five road games and they’re scoring average drops by close to a touchdown from 27.8 to 21.7 points when they hit the road this season. I believe that may not be enough to keep up with an Atlanta passing attack that’s been on fire its last two games.

Matt Ryan has passed for a combined 736 yards and six TDs against two interceptions over his last two games while Julio Jones has been the best receiver in the NFL for two straight weeks. A Pittsburgh defense, meanwhile, has struggled to make plays this season with just 24 sacks (24th in the NFL) and eight interceptions (also 24th in the NFL).

I feel Ryan will stay in his groove this weekend against this defense and the Falcons will hold their place atop the fledgling NFC South as a team that continues on the rise. 10* Best Bet