5* Compass Bowl High Roller Money Maker: SMU +4

SMU is showing some solid value as a 4-point underdog in the Compass Bowl against the Pittsburgh Panthers. While SMU finished just 2-4 in their final six game after starting the season 5-1, I believe they will be the more motivated team in this game.

Pittsburgh finished strong with three wins in their final five games. Both of their losses came by a total of 4-points against a couple of pretty good teams in Cincinnati and West Virginia. However, the Panthers will be playing this game without head coach Todd Graham, who abruptly left the team to take the Arizona State job. Graham thought so little of his players, he informed them via text message. Hard to imagine Pittsburgh's players being all that motivated to play in this game.

While SMU lost 14-16 to Army as 7-point favorites in the Armed Forces Bowl last season, the year before they crushed Nevada 45-10 as 12-point underdogs. The Mustangs are in the underdog role again, and I look for them to win this game outright.

Outside of the coaching problems for Pittsburgh, SMU is a pretty tough matchup. Defensively SMU allowed just 127.3 ypg on the ground. Their strong defensive front should not only be able to slow down the Panthers rushing attack, but also take advantage of a weak Pittsburgh offensive line that allowed starting quarterback Tino Sunseri to be sacked 54 times.

SMU will be without their leading rusher, Zach Line, but should be able to exploit the Panthers' 67th ranked pass defense with quarterback J.J. McDermott and wide outs Darius Johnson and Cole Beasley. BET THE PANTHERS +4!

5* COTTON BOWL ATS MASSACRE: Arkansas -8.5

While both teams come into this game with a 10-2 overall record, the Razorbacks two losses came against the two teams playing for the National Championship (LSU & Alabama). If there wasn't a rule that one conference could only send two teams to BCS games, the Razorbacks would have been invited.

A lot of people will look at Arkansas' last loss to LSU, where the Tigers crushed the Razorbacks 41-17, but that actually favors Arkansas to cover the large spread, as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.

Defensively Kansas State had their most trouble against offenses who were built around the passing game. The Wildcats finished 99th in the country against the pass, allowing just over 267 ypg. Arkansas features the 13th ranked passing attack in the country, and I expect them to move the ball with ease.

The big concern for people laying this many points on Arkansas is their defense. The Razorbacks finished 75th in the country against the run, while Kansas State ended with the nations 24th ranked rushing attack. While I think the Wildcats will have success running the ball, I don't think they will be able to keep this game within double-digits.

A big reason Arkansas run defense appears to be weak is because they play in the run-heavy SEC. At the same time Kansas State's rushing numbers are inflated because that's really all they do offensively, and there isn't exactly a whole lot of defense being played in the Big 12.

Arkansas is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. BET THE RAZORBACKS -8.5!

5* ORANGE BOWL ATS MASSACRE: Clemson -3

While Clemson finished the season with an impressive 38-10 win over Virginia Tech, a lot of people will look at how this team lost 3 of their final four games in the regular season. What few will realize is outside of the upset loss at Georgia Tech, those two losses against South Carolina and NC State really didn't mean much to this team. They had already locked up a spot in the ACC Championship Game.

The Mountaineers finished up the season with three straight wins, but those three wins came by a combined 7-points. One of West Virginia's biggest advantages in the Big East is teams struggle to matchup with their speed. That won't be the case in this game, as I believe the Mountaineers will struggle to keep up with the Tigers. Clemson has played its best football when it matters most, and I think the Tigers will end up winning this game by double-digits.

West Virginia is 4-15 ATS in road games against ACC opponents since 1992 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. BET THE TIGERS -3!

5* SUGAR BOWL ATS GAME OF THE YEAR: Michigan -2.5

My strongest bowl play this season is on the Michigan Wolverines -2.5. I believe the Wolverines are a very similar team to that of Clemson, who rolled past the Hokies in the regular season and ACC Championship Game.

While Virginia Tech is strong against the run, allowing just 108 ypg, this Michigan offense is a lot harder to prepare for. Quarterback Denard Robinson is one of the most electric running quarterbacks in the country, who also has the ability to throw the ball.

Defensively, Michigan has become a completely different team under new head coach Brady Hoke and defensive coordinator Greg Mattison. I expect the Wolverines to have a great game plan to slow down the Hokies rushing attack and force sophomore quarterback Logan Thomas beat them with his arm.

Michigan is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games, while Virginia Tech is just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. BET MICHIGAN -2.5!

5* GATOR BOWL ATS MASSACRE: Ohio State +2.5

**Limited Analysis Over New Years** The Buckeyes have been through a lot this season, and I look for them to come out extremely motivated to win this game. Not only is this the seniors last chance to play in a bowl game, but the juniors as well, as the Buckeyes are banned from postseason play next season. Florida will be playing close to home, but that is about all they have going for them in this game. BET THE BUCKEYES +2.5

5* Chick-Fil-A Bowl ATS SMASH: Auburn Tigers -3

**Limited Analysis Over New Years** I took a tough loss on Mississippi State -6.5 against Wake Forest on Friday, as the Bulldogs missed an extra point. However, I'm sticking with the SEC over the ACC again on Saturday.

Auburn is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. BET THE TIGERS -3!

5* ARMED FORCES BOWL ATS ANNIHILATOR: BYU +1

Not only is BYU +1 my favorite play for Friday, it is one of my strongest bowl plays of the season. BYU should not be getting points in this game, as I believe the Cougars are by far the better team.

Some will make the Argument that Tulsa has played the better schedule, as their four losses have come against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Houston. I agree those four losses are against great teams, but Tulsa lost those games by an average of 28 points.

The game that sticks out the most is the Golden Hurricane's 16-48 loss to Houston in the season finale. The fact that they were able to score just 16 points against a horrible Houston defense, tells me their offense is extremely overrated. BYU comes into this game with the 16th best defense in yards allowing, giving up just 216.9 ypg. I believe the reason the total appears to be set way to low, is because oddsmakers see Tulsa really struggling to move the ball.

BYU's offense was mediocre at best early in the season, but once head coach Bronco Mendenhall inserted junior quarterback Riley Nelson into the starting line, the Cougars became a completely different team. In just six games where Nelson saw significant playing time, he threw for 1,467 yards with 16 touchdowns to five interceptions. He is going to have a field day against a Tulsa defense that finished 115 against the pass, giving up 289.3 ypg.

BYU is 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record,4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. CUSA. BET THE COUGARS +1!

5* ALAMO BOWL ATS MASSACRE: Huskies +10

Their is a lot of hype surrounding Baylor after their impressive 5 game winning streak to finish the season and starting quarterback Robert Griffin III winning the Heisman. That hype has the Bears extremely overvalued in their bowl game against Washington.

There is no question Baylor is going to put points on the board, but in order to cover a huge spread like this you have to be able to stop the opposing team from putting up big numbers. The Baylor defense is one of the worst in the country. They finished 96th against the run (198.7 ypg) and 110th against the pass (278.8 ypg).

Washington's quarterback Keith Price and running back Chris Polk both put up some big time numbers this season. Price threw for 2,625 yards with 26 touchdowns to 11 interceptions and Polk rushed for 1,341 yards and 11 scores. I expect both of these players to have a huge game tonight, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Washington won this game outright.

Washington is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in December, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as an underdog. BET THE HUSKIES +10!

5* BLUE CHIP BOWL GAME OF THE WEEK: Toledo -3

I believe Toledo is showing some solid value against Air Force today, and I think they will have no trouble winning this game by at least a field goal.

Not to take anything away from Air Force, but Toledo is a lot better than they get credit for. The Rockets finished the season 8-4, with their four losses coming at Ohio State, Boise State, at Syracuse, and Northern Illinois. They were 8th in the country in scoring at 42.3 ppg, ranking 29th in passing yards and 14th in rushing.

I expect this to be a very close game, as both offenses should have all kinds of success moving the ball. I do give the slight advantage defensively to Toledo, which is why I believe they are favored in this game.

A big reason I really like the Rockets is they have pretty much everyone back from last year's team who lost a heartbreaker 32-34 against FIU in the Little Caesars Bowl. It was the first time Toledo even played in a bowl game since 2005. I look for a senior driven lineup to be extremely focused and motivated in this game.

Air Force (7-5) didn't quite live up to expectations this season after going 9-4 a year ago. This will be the Falcons fifth straight bowl appearance. They knocked off Georgia Tech 14-7 last year. I just don't see the Falcons being all that excited to play a Toledo team out of the MAC.

Toledo is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, while Air Force is 0-6 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. BET THE ROCKETS -3!

5* LITTLE CAESARS BOWL TOP PLAY: Western Michigan +3

I think these two teams are pretty well evenly matched, but I actually give the slight edge to Western Michigan, which makes taking the 3-poins a no-brainer.

Western Michigan's starting quarterback Alex Carder is the real deal, who is better than a few Big 10 quarterbacks. Carder completed 67% of his attempts for 3,434 yards with 28 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. The Broncos also have a gifted receiver in Jordan White, who had 127 receptions for 1,646 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Boilermakers defense finished 35th against the pass, but that number is a bit skewed by playing in the run-happy Big Ten.

Defensively Western Michigan isn't all that great, especially against the run. They finished 10sth in the nation, allowing 215.9 rushing yards per game. I expect Purdue to have success running the ball, but they are without their leading rusher Ralph Bolden.

Western Michigan allowed Illinois to run for 296 yards, but still only lost the game 20-23 on the road. Not to mention they could have won that game had they not missed two field goals.

Purdue is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games, and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. BET THE BRONCOS +3!

5* BOWL GAME OF THE WEEK: TCU -9

I am extremely confident TCU will cover the 9-point spread against Louisiana Tech. The Horned Frogs finished the season 10-2. They loss the season opener against Baylor by 2-points and lost in overtime to SMU. Both those losses came in their first five games. Since that point they have won seven straight, soon to be eight. What really stands out to me is the Horned Frogs three straight wins over BYU, @Wyoming, and @Boise State.

Louisiana Tech has put together a pretty solid season, and seemed to really turn it on after Colby Cameron took over at quarterback. However, the Bulldogs will be without star running back Lennon Creer, who had 838 yards and nine touchdowns in basically 9 games (injured early against Ole Miss).

There is a lot of people who will look back and see that LA Tech played two extremely close games against Houston and Mississippi State. Any good team would play Houston close, there defense is awful! Mississippi State had just lost a heartbreaker to LSU at home the game before, so not all that surprising they didn't show up against a team out of WAC.

Creer was a huge part in the Bulldogs keeping both of those games close. He rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown against Houston and 82 yards and a score against Mississippi State.

While LA Tech won the WAC conference, I don't think they have a chance against TCU. The WAC is one of, if not, the worst conference in college football. So much is being made of LA Tech winning their final seven games, but all seven of those games came against mediocre opponents at best. TCU is no mediocre opponent. They were a missed field goal and overtime loss from possibly playing in the National Championship (BCS Bowl at worst). BET THE HORNED FROGS -9!

5* BEEF 'O' BRADY TOP PLAY BEATDOWN : Marshall +4.5

Rarely will you see a Sun Belt team favored in a bowl game, let alone a team that finished 4th in a conference that many consider to be the worst in college football. I'm not saying FIU isn't good enough to win this game, but the smart money here is on Marshall. Almost every time you see a team come into a bowl game off 3 straight wins where they covered the covered the spread, they will be way overvalued. Exactly the case tonight.

Marshall comes into the bowl game playing their best football, as they had to win four of their final six games just to become bowl eligible. This team worked so hard to get to the opportunity to play another game, I can't imagine them not coming in extremely focused and motivated to beat FIU.

While I think FIU will be excited to play in a bowl game for a second straight season, I can't see this team getting all that excited to play Marshall, a team they are expected to beat. However FIU is just 2-12 ATS after a bye week since 1992 and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

Marshall is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December and a solid 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games. BET THE THUNDERING HERD +4.5!

5* NCAAF OPENING BOWL WEEKEND BEATDOWN: San Diego State -4

The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns are a nice story, as first year head coach Mark Hudspeth has led them to their first bowl game in school history with an 8-4 record (3-9 last season). However, they should not be getting this much respect against the San Diego State Aztecs.

It would be one thing if the Ragin' Cajuns won the Sun Belt Conference, which is considered by most to the be the worst conference in football, but they finished third.

The Aztecs finished with an identical 8-4 mark, but their four losses came against high-quality teams in Michigan, TCU, Wyoming, and Boise State. The Ragin' Cajuns lost by 19-points to Western Kentucky.

Louisiana-Lafayette allowed nearly 30 points a game this season, and I have a hard time seeing them slowing down the Aztecs Ryan Lindley(QB) and Ronnie Hillman (RB). Lindley threw for 2,740 yards with 20 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions, while Hillman rushed for 1,656 yards and 19 scores. The Ragin' Cajuns are 54th against the run (144.5 ypg) and 91st against the pass (248.7 ypg).

On the other side of the ball, I think San Diego State will be able to do enough to allow the offense to distance them on the scoreboard. Louisiana-Lafayette's strength is their passing game that averages 250.9 ypg, while the Aztecs strength on defense is stopping the pass, holding opponents to just 199.2 ypg.

A big reason a lot of people are backing the Ragin' Cajuns is the fact that this is their first bowl game, but I actually think that hurts them than more than it helps. I look for them to be overwhelmed by the atmosphere. San Diego State delivered a 35-14 win over Navy as a 3-point favorite a year ago, and I expect a very similar result in this one. BET THE AZTECS -4!

5* ARMY/NAVY NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK: NAVY -7

Navy has completely dominated this series, covering 14 of the last 19 games. I see no reason why the Midshipmen won't bring home a double-digit win in the final game of the 2011 regular season.

Both teams feature two of the best rushing attacks in the country, which has me believing that the defense that can make the most stops will win this game. Army is the worst of the two against the run, allowing just over 185 ypg, and have played the easier schedule. Navy could very easily have a winning record coming into this game with 5 losses decided by 3-points or less.

Army is expected to have starting quarterback Trent Steelman, but I don't believe he is 100%. Without a healthy Steelman to run the offense, Army has really struggled to put up points. They didn't score more than 14 points in each of their last three games, and haven't scored more than 17 in this series since 2005.

Navy is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in December, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. BET THE MIDSHIPMEN -7!

5* BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH

The Badgers run at a perfect season was put to a stop by Michigan State and that incredible Hail Mary back on Oct. 22. With no chance of playing in the BCS Championship Game, if there was one team Wisconsin could pick to play right now, its Michigan State. I believe the Badgers will want to win this game more than any they have played all season, and I expect them to come out and absolutely dominate this game from the very beginning.

The Spartans had a huge advantage of playing that first game at home, but this time they will be without the home crowd to keep them energized. Michigan State's defense made some big plays early in that game, but were unable to protect a 31-17 4th quarter lead with just 10:58 left to play.

Wisconsin will be able to see what Michigan State did to slow them down in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, where the Spartans had a 23-3 edge. Wisconsin was extremely close to blowing this game wide open early, and this time I expect them to get the job done. The Badgers will show why they are truly the best team in the Big Ten tonight!

When the Spartans aren't playing at home, they are just 5-15 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Getting beat by an average score of 19-35!

Wisconsin is 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite, and 6-0 ATS off 3 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 2 seasons. BET THE BADGERS -9.5!

5* MAC CHAMPIONSHIP NO-DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT: Northern Illinois -3

Northern Illinois got this far last year, only to get upset by Miami 21-26. The Huskies goal all season long was to get back to the title game. They opened up conference play with a 41-48 loss at Central Michigan, but have won seven straight since.

Ohio is a solid team that really plays hard for head coach Frank Solich, but I think Ohio is a little overrated. The Bobcats play in the MAC East. Of the seven teams in that division, only two finished with a winning conference record. On the other hand, Central Michigan was the only team with a losing record in the MAC West.

When it comes down to it, my money is on Chandler Harnish and the Northern Illinois offense to make sure they win this game. Statistically the Bobcats may have the better defense, but both defenses are going to lay everything on the line in a Championship Game. You also have to think about how much different Ohio's defenses numbers would be had they had to play Toledo and Western Michigan.

If Ohio's offense struggles to get going early, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Huskies run away with this game. Northern Illinois is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 conference games,while Ohio is just 1-10 ATS in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games since 1992. BET THE HUSKIES -3!

5* SEC BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE YEAR: Alabama -21

If there was any doubt that Alabama and LSU are on a completely different level than the rest of the country, the Tigers 41-17 win over Arkansas should put that to rest. There will be no lack of motivation for Alabama to come out and crush Auburn on Saturday. If the Crimson Tide win this game convincingly they all but ensure a spot to the BCS National Championship Game.

I have been surprised with how well Auburn has played this season, but they aren't anywhere close to Alabama's level when it comes to talent on both sides of the ball. Auburn lost 10-45 against LSU and 7-45 against Georgia. I know this is a huge rivalry game, but that's not going to matter this year. If playing for the National Championship isn't enough motivation, the Crimson Tide will be out for revenge after Auburn pulled out a 28-27 win at Alabama last season.

Alabama is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater. BET THE CRIMSON TIDE -21!

5* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK: Miami -14

In my opinion this is the safest bet on the board Friday. Miami may have came out and said they aren't going to play in a bowl game if they get invited, but I believe that only makes them a stronger play against the Eagles.

Knowing that this is the final game of the season, the Hurricanes are going to lay everything on the line to not only win this game, but win it big. By saying they won't accept a bowl invite, tells me this team is pissed off about everything that has happened. What better way to rub it in than to go out and win this game by 30+.

Boston College has absolutely nothing to play for in this game. No matter what they do in this game, their season is over come Saturday. It will be even harder for this team to come out and play hard after a heartbreaking 14-16 loss at Notre Dame. Look for Miami to jump on the Eagles early and have this spread covered by midway through the second quarter!

Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. BET THE HURRICANES -14!

5* MAC ATS ABSOLUTE SMASH: Ohio -8.5

While Ohio has already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game, head coach Frank Solich has made it clear that he won't allow his players to slack off against Miami. The Bobcats have an opportunity to win 11 games this season, something that has never been done in school history. This will also be the last time the seniors take the field at Peden Stadium, and I expect those seniors to make sure the rest of the team comes focused and ready to play.

While Ohio seems to have found their motivation, I think it is going to be very hard for Miami to come in energized to play this game. The Redhawks have just suffered two heartbreaking 21-24 defeats to Temple and Western Michigan that have ended any chance of making a bowl game. Their most recent loss to Western Michigan is the biggest reason why I'm siding with Ohio tonight. The RedHawks seniors put everything on the line to win their final home game and keep hope alive, but it wasn't enough and now they face an Ohio team with nothing to play for. Miami knows that even if they win this game Ohio is going to play in the MAC Championship.

Rain and wind are expected for tonight's game, and that is the last thing Miami players want to deal with. The RedHawks offense is built around a passing game that averages 292.5 ypg. The conditions are going to make it very hard for them to have a lot of success on the offensive side of the ball. Ohio on the other hand averages 207 rushing yards a game, and will face a Miami defense that gives up an average of 162.7 ypg on the ground.

The Bobcats have owned Miami with five straight wins by at least 15 points, and with everything considered for this game I believe the smart money is on the home favorite.

Ohio is 18-8 ATS in their last 26 conference games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in November, and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. BET THE BOBCATS -8.5!

5* NCAAF BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE MONTH: Oklahoma -15

A lot is being made about the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State matchup at the end of the regular season, but in order for that game to mean something the Sooners have to take care of business against Baylor and Iowa State.

Since the unthinkable loss to Texas Tech at home, the Sooners have won back-to-back games against Kansas State and Texas A&M by at least 16 points. Some might be concerned about the loss of wide out Ryan Broyels, but that won't matter against a Baylor defense that ranks 107th in the country, giving up 458.2 ypg.

The Bears also come in off two straight wins, but they were lucky to win last week at Kansas. The Bears went into the 4th quarter trailing by 21-points, before forcing overtime and sneaking away with a win. While Baylor has a high-powered offense of their own, they aren't going to score at will against a motivated Oklahoma defense. The Sooners should jump out to a big lead and keep the points coming.

Oklahoma is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. BET THE SOONERS -15!

5* BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK: Iowa State +28

There's no question that Oklahoma State is the better team, but time after time we have seen some of the best teams in the country struggle down the stretch. The Cowboys might say they are focused on beating Iowa State, but there's no way the players aren't looking ahead to their next game against in state rival Oklahoma that will decide whether they play for the National Championship or not.

They Cyclones are going to come in with a ton of confidence and should feed of the energy of a rowdy crowd that will be gearing up for home season finale all day long.

Oklahoma State is going to put up a big number offensively, but I see the Cyclones offense having a lot of success against a pretty weak Oklahoma State defense. In order to play good defense you have to be motivated, which I can't see Oklahoma State's defensive players being all that excited to go to Iowa and take on an offense that just scored 13 points against Kansas. BET THE CYCLONES +28!

5* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK: Ohio -7

While this may be Bowling Green's final home game of the season, the Ohio Bobcats can clinch a spot in the MAC Championship Game with a win tonight. I believe that motivation will be more than enough for Ohio to not only win the game, but easily cover the spread.

These two teams are headed in opposite directions as the near the finish line of the regular season. Ohio has won three straight, including two wins on the road. The Falcons have lost five of their last six and each one of those losses has come by at least 7 points.

While I expect Bowling Green to have their moments offensively behind quarterback Matt Schilz, they will struggle to consistently move the ball against a Ohio defense that allows just 22 points and 342 yards of total offense a game.

On the other hand, if Ohio comes in with the energy and focus that I expect, they should have incredible success running the football. The Bobcats offense is built around a rushing attack that averages 203 ypg on the ground, and they are set to face a Bowling Green defense that gives up 200 rushing yards a game. Not to mention the Bobcats average another 261 ypg through the air. Expect big play after big play for the Ohio offense as they run away with this game and cruise to an easy cover!

Ohio is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 conference games, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games in November, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. BET THE BOBCATS -7!

5* MAC NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT: Ball State +17.5

Ball State comes in having covered each of their last four games, and I believe they are getting way too many points on the road against Northern Illinois tonight. The Cardinals are just a game back of the Huskies in the MAC West standings, which will give them the motivation they need to keep this game close.

The Huskies come in having won five straight overall, but three of those wins came against very weak competition. Northern Illinois features one of the best offenses in the MAC, averaging 41.6 ppg, but are very suspect on the defensive side of the ball, giving up an average of 33.4 ppg.

While Ball State might not have the talent to win this game, they are more than capable of matching what Northern Illinois does offensively and keeping this game within striking distance the entire way.

Ball State is led by sophomore quarterback Keith Wenning, who has thrown for 2,233 yards with 15 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions. Wenning has been at his best of late, averaging just over 314 yards a game over his last three contests. The key here is that Wenning won't have to make all the plays for Ball State to move the football. Northern Illinois is 91st in the nation against the run, allowing 190.5 ypg. Look for freshman running back Jahwan Edwards to have a big day rushing the ball. Edwards is averaging 4.5 ypc on the season, with 681 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Ball State is 30-11 ATS in their last 41 road games, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater, and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. BET THE CARDINALS +17.5

5* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH: Vanderbilt -13.5

It may come as a bit of surprise to see Vanderbilt favored by nearly two touchdowns against an SEC opponent, but not only do I think they cover I think they win this game going away.

Vanderbilt has been a completely different team since Jordan Rodgers took over the starting quarterback job. Rodgers has put life into a Commodores offense that has been one of the worse in the SEC for years. The junior quarterback has the ability to make plays with both his arm and his feet. Rodgers threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns in a 21-26 loss at Florida. He's averaging just over 65 yards rushing in his last four games, and should have no trouble getting the offense rolling against a Kentucky defense that is giving up 35.6 points and 459 yards of offense in conference play.

On the other side of the ball, the Commodores defense is allowing just 21 points a game at home. Kentucky is one of the worst offensive teams in the SEC, putting up just 8 points a game on the road. Their is new life in Vanderbilt, who could get to a bowl game if they win out. This will be the last time they play at home, and you can expect a rowdy bunch of fans that should give the Commodores defense a little extra motivation to make sure they don't slip up against the Wildcats.

Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater, 6-0 ATS in home lined games this season, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. BET THE COMMODORES -13.5!

5* BIG EAST BEATDOWN: South Florida -3.5

South Florida is coming off a 17-20 overtime loss at Rutgers last Saturday. It was the the Bulls third straight conference loss by 6-points or less. While the season has been a major disappointment, there is pride on the line for the Bulls. They have yet to win a conference game at 0-4.

Tonight's game against Syracuse is the perfect time for them to break through with a win. The Orange haven't looked good in back-to-back losses against Louisville and Connecticut, and I look for South Florida to attack them early with explosive plays on the offensive side of the ball.

USF is averaging 32.5 points and 467 yards of total offense a game. Their 31st ranked passing attack (266.9 ypg) should be able to make a lot of big plays against Syracuse's 100th ranked pass defense (267.4 ypg).

Not only will South Florida come into this game extremely motivated to avoid the possibility of finishing the season without a conference win, but they will be looking for revenge after Syracuse beat them 13-9 on their home field a season ago. South Florida not only won the previous five matchups, but they also covered in all five games.

South Florida is a solid 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games, while the Orange are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. BET THE BULLS -3.5!

5* ACC NO-DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT: Virginia Tech Pick'em

If you were to look at how these two teams played in their last game, you would give the edge to Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets stunned undfeated Clemson 31-17, while the Hokies had to sweat out a 14-10 win at Duke. However, those results weren't all that surprising. While Virginia Tech was looking ahead to this very game, Georgia Tech was in the middle of the biggest game of their season against a top ranked team.

The Yellow Jackets win over Clemson seems to have people forgetting about how this team lost their previous two games against Virginia and Miami by a combined 24 points. The Hokies come in riding a four-game winning streak, and Frank Beamer's teams almost always get better as the season progresses.

Virginia Tech brings in a very balanced offense that should be able to capitalize on an overrated Georgia Tech defense. On the other side of the ball, the Hokies 5th ranked run defense (86.3 ypg) should be able to control Georgia Tech's high-powered rushing attack, especially considering they have had over a week to prepare for their unusual attack.

Virginia Tech is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games in November, 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 Thursday games. BET THE HOKIES!

5* MAC WEEKNIGHT BEST BET: Temple -12.5

It may seem like the Owls are a overvalued in this matchup, as they come in having lost two straight while Miami is riding back-to-back wins. However, I believe the oddsmakers have set this total this high because they believe Temple is not only going to win this game but win this game going away.

The Owls two recent losses have come by a combined 7-points. It was as if they didn't show up in their 10-13 loss at Bowling Green and then ran into a Ohio team that is better than they get credit for.

The reason I like the Owls in this game is the fact that they appear to have a clear edge on both sides of the ball. Temple is built to run the football, averaging 258.3 rushing yards a game. The Miami defense biggest struggle this season has been stopping the run. The RedHawks allow 170.0 ypg on the ground, and that number would be even higher if it wasn't for a couple of games against Kent State and Bufflao. When Temple can run the ball, it usually leads to a lot of touchdowns, which is exactly what we need to cover this spread.

On the other side of the ball, Temple's defense should have no trouble stopping a Miami offense that ranks 91st in the country in total yards. The RedHawks are 118th in rushing (78.7 ypg) and 26th in passing (271.1). Those passing numbers might scare some people, but it shouldn't be a problem in this game. Temple is 14th against the pass, allowing just 184.8 ypg. The Owls defense seems to really struggle when the opposing team can run the football. In 3 of their four losses their opponent rushed for over 100 yards, in their 5 wins they are allowing just over 71 ypg. With Miami featuring little to no ground game, Temple's defense should dominate this game from start to finish.

Temple is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, while Miami is just 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. BET THE OWLS!

5* MAC ATS BOOKIE BEATDOWN: Bowling Green +6

A lot of people are jumping on Northern Illinois after their big 63-60 road win over Toledo last Tuesday, but I believe they are going to not only struggle to cover the spread but win this game outright.

The Huskies put everything they had on the line in order to beat the Rockets last week. It is going to be extremely hard for them to get motivated to play a Bowling Green team that just lost by double-digits against Kent State, especially with another huge game against Ball State looming next week.

The Falcons have been hit or miss all season, but seem to find a way to play their best football against the top teams in the MAC. They went on the road and beat Miami 37-23, played Toledo to a close 21-28 game at home, and stunned Temple 13-10 at home.

Offensively the Falcons are led by sophomore quarterback Matt Schilz, who has thrown for 2,301 yards and 19 touchdowns. He has a couple of big time playmakers at wide receiver in Kamar Jorden and Eugene Cooper, who each have at least 50 catches for 625 yards and six touchdowns. This trio should have a field day against a Northern Illinois defense that comes in giving up 247.7 ypg through the air. Bowling Green will also be able to keep drives alive with the running game, as the Huskies give up 202.8 ypg on the ground.

Defensively it is going to be a big test for Bowling Green, as Northern Illinois comes in 10th in the country averaging 41.2 ppg. The Falcons feature a young defense that has not only gotten better as the season goes on, but they have played much better at home. Bowling Green is giving up 27.1 points on the year, but just 19.7 at home.

Bowling Green is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games in November and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0, while Northern Illinois is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. BET THE FALCONS!

5* NCAAF SATURDAY BEST BET: Virginia -2

The Virginia Cavaliers have quietly put together a strong 5-3 start with impressive wins over Georgia Tech and Miami. Maryland on the other hand has really struggled to get anything going. Their two wins this season came against a depleted Miami team back in the first game of the season and against Towson. They come into this game having lost four straight and were just beat at home by a young Boston College team that just got rolled by Florida State on Thursday.

The big reason the Terrapins have struggled this year has been their inability to stop opposing teams to run all over them. Maryland is 113th in the nation against the run, giving up 234.8 yards per game. In their last game they allowed Boston College's backup running back to rush for 243 yards as the Eagles piled on 372 yards on the ground. This plays right into the strength of what Virginia likes to do offensively. The Cavaliers come in averaging 186.4 ypg on the ground.

Virginia should have no trouble putting points on the board, and at the same time their defense should be able to do more than enough to allow them to cover this spread with ease. Virginia has the 23rd ranked defense in the nation, allowing just 329.0 ypg.

Not only does Virginia have the edge on both sides of the ball, but they have some revenge to take care of in this game as well. Maryland came into Virginia and beat the Cavaliers 42-23 a year ago.

Maryland has been one of the best teams to bet against this season. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. BET THE CAVALIERS!

5* PAC-12 NO-DOUBT ATS SMASH: Colorado +22

While Colorado has shown nothing all season to make you think they can hang with a top level team like USC, the Buffaloes catch the Trojans in a very good spot. USC comes into this game off a triple-overtime loss at home to Stanford, arguably the biggest game of the season for the Trojans, as they aren't eligible to play in the Conference Championship Game or a bowl game.

Motivation of playing a top level opponent is the one thing that gets USC excited to play. It's hard to imagine the Trojans getting pumped up to play a 1-8 Colorado team that has yet to win a single conference game.

The exact opposite holds true for Colorado. With no hopes of playing in a bowl game and Arizona, UCLA, and Utah left on the schedule, this is the last thing the Buffaloes have to get excited about. Getting this game at home is huge for the Buffaloes, as they should be extremely excited to cheer on their team with the game schedule to be aired on ESPN.

This is one of the few games where you have to look past the numbers and look more at the emotional state of each team. Colorado will get some added confidence that they can win this game with the return of starting running back Rodney Stewart and wide out Paul Richardson. Stewart and Richardson have each been out the last two games, and are arguably the two biggest playmakers outside of starting quarterback Tyler Hansen.

Colorado is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. BET THE BUFFALOES!

5* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK: Florida State -14

While I'm not a huge fan of laying two touchdowns on the road, Florida State should have no trouble at all covering this spread. The Seminoles were considered by many to be one of the best teams in the country coming into the season, but injuries have kept them from reaching their full potential.

The Seminoles are starting to get healthy and it's showed in their last three games. Florida State has won all 3 games by at least 25 points, including a 34-0 win over NC State in their last game. Boston College is in the midst of a bad season, but are getting a little more respect than they deserve after upsetting Maryland 28-17 last week.

Boston College rushed for 372 yards against the Terrapins, but that number really isn't as impressive as it might seem. Maryland has been letting opponents run all over them this season, giving up 235 yards a game on the ground. The Eagles aren't going to have that kind of success against a Florida State defense that ranks 4th in the country against the run, allowing just 77 yards a game.

With Boston College figuring to really struggle to move the ball with the run, they will likely be forced to try and beat this Florida State defense with the pass. That figures to be a problem. The Eagles have the 98th passing attack in the country, averaging just 176.4 yards per game. In their big win over Maryland they threw for just 32 yards. When a bad passing team is forced to pass it usually results in turnovers, which should lead to a lot of easy points for Florida State.

A lot of people will look back to last year's game and see that Boston College played Florida State to a close 24-19 score on the road, but this Boston College team is far from the one that took the field a season ago. The Eagles got a 191 rushing yards from star running back Montel Harris, but the senior back has been lost for the season with a knee injury. The Eagles defense is also a long ways from where it was last season. Boston College allowed just 19.5 points and 310 yards of total offense last season, but come in giving up 26 points and 443 yards of offense in conference play.

Florida State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater, and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. BET THE SEMINOLES!

5* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH: Ohio +4

Ohio has really had a lot of success against Temple despite the Owls routinely being favored as the team to win. In 2009 the Bobcats were 2-point underdogs at home, but won the game 35-17. Last year Temple was favored by 8 at their place, but Ohio went on to win 31-23. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Ohio win outright again tonight, but either way I expect this to be a close game and Ohio to cover the 4-point spread.

I really think Ohio matches up well on both sides of the ball. Temple is built to run the football offensively, and stop the run on the other side of the ball.

Ohio comes in with the 28th ranked run defense (117.4 ypg), allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. Temple will likely go over the 150 mark on the ground, but they rushed for 218 yards against Bowling Green and could only manage 10 points. The reason for that is the Owls have the 110th (133.3 ypg) passing offense in the nation. I look for Ohio to load the box with 8-9 defenders and dare the Owls to throw the ball.

While the Bobcats may struggle to run the ball against the Owls, sophomore quarterback Tyler Tettleton is more than capable of beating this defense with his ability to throw the ball. Tettleton has completed 64% of his attempts for 1,983 yards with 17 touchdowns to five interceptions.

You also have to consider the intensity and focus that Ohio is going to come out with in this game. There season is on the line tonight, and the home crowd is going to help feed them the energy they need to come out on top.

Ohio is 9-1 ATS in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992. BET THE BOBCATS!

5* NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR: Mississippi St -9.5

While it may seem like a bit of a stretch to count on a road team to win by double-digits in the SEC, Mississippi State should absolutely dominate this game on both sides of the ball.

The Bulldogs are a disappointing 3-4 overall and 0-4 in the SEC. However, those four losses have came against the likes of Auburn, LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina. Each one decided by a touchdown or less. Kentucky comes in 3-4 and 0-3 in the SEC. While it seems like an even matchup, the Wildcats have lost by an average of 39 points inside the conference. Two of those have came against similar opponents in LSU and South Carolina.

Kentucky has allowed 502 total yards per game in SEC play. Mississippi State should score just about every time the touch the ball. On the other side, Kentucky has the 115th ranked offense in the country, averaging just 259.9 ypg. They have total just 550 total yards in 3 SEC games (183 avg). Mississippi State's defense is 32nd in the nation, and will have no trouble keeping the Wildcats offense in check.

Mississippi State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, while the Wildcats are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. BET THE BULLDOGS!

5* WEEKNIGHT ATS SMASH : BYU +14

A lot of people look at this current BYU team and think of the team they watched open the season 1-2 with a loss at Texas and a 10-54 beating by Utah. What a lot of people don't realize is BYU's offense has a new quarterback in charge, and he is lighting up the stat sheet.

After watching Jake Heaps complete just 55% of his passes for three touchdowns with six interceptions, head coach Bronco Mendenhall decided to bring in Riley Nelson. The junior quarterback first appeared against Utah State, rallying BYU for a late win. In just 3.5 games he has thrown for 833 yards (62%) with 11 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions.

Nelson has also added a lot of life to the running game. BYU has rushed for at least 200 yards in the last four games he has played in. He is already second on the team with 284 yards, averaging 6.5 yards per carry.

TCU is getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers after their 69-0 win over New Mexico this past Saturday, but this team is a bit overrated in my opinion. Their only Division 1 win against a team with a winning record was at San Diego State 27-14. Their other two games against division 1 teams they lost (@ Baylor, SMU), which both happened to be played on a Friday.

The other thing to keep in mind is the Cougars have a pretty solid defense going in 2011. They are allowing just 17.6 ppg over their 5 game winning streak. I think TCU will be able to move the ball on them, but they are going to make some stops and keep this game close.

BYU is 7-0 ATS after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. It all adds up to a perfect 17-0 system. BET THE COUGARS!

5* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK: Virginia +14

Last year Virginia stunned No. 22 Miami at home 24-19 as 16 point underdogs. While they have to face the Hurricanes on the road this time around, I expect another close game between these two teams.

The Cavaliers aren't getting a whole lot of respect after losing 28-14 at home to NC State last week, but that game was much closer than the final score indicates. Virginia killed themselves with four turnovers, including an interception that was returned for a touchdown late in the 4th quarter.

Miami had a nice 24-7 win over Georgia Tech last week, but their offense was less than impressive. The Hurricanes managed just 262 yards of total offense against a Georgia Tech defense that came in giving up over 352 yards a game. I look for the Hurricanes to really have a hard time moving the ball against a very underrated Virginia defense. The Cavaliers come in 19th in the country, allowing just 314 total yards a game.

Virginia is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater, while Miami is just 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. BET THE CAVALIERS!

5* Big East Bookie Beatdown: Pittsburgh -10

The public has been riding the Huskies hard heading into this game, but the line continues to move in the favor of the Panthers. That has me laying my money on Pittsburgh -10. The Panthers aren't getting much respect around the nation after back-to-back losses to Rutgers and Utah, while the Huskies are a bit over-hyped after upsetting South Florida at home in their last game.

The thing is Connecticut beat South Florida by a final of 16-10. The same South Florida team Pittsburgh crushed 44-17 a few weeks back. Both of these teams have also faced a weak Buffalo team. Connecticut was able to beat Buffalo 17-3, while Pittsburgh crushed the Bulls 35-16.

The Panthers strength is running the football, but they seem to play their best offensively when they have success throwing the football. Connecticut should allow them to do just that. The Huskies come in allowing 262.1 ypg through the air. In their two losses prior to beating South Florida, they allowed 948 yards to Western Michigan and West Virginia.

On the other side of the ball, the Panthers defense should be able to keep a weak Connecticut offense in check. The Huskies come in 102nd in the nation in total yards, averaging just 320 a game, but have been held to just a 264 average in Big East play. BET PITTSBURGH!

5* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR: Wake Forest -3.5

The Demon Deacons went just 3-9 last year, and it seems like people are afraid to back this team despite their strong play on the field. Wake Forest did have a bit of an ugly loss last week against Virginia Tech, but that was just their second loss of the season. This team upset Florida State 35-30 the week before.

Duke's three wins have came against Boston College (, Tulane, and Florida International, not exactly the stiffest of competition and they barely won two of those games. They were dominated by Florida State 41-16 last week, and have an ugly 21-23 loss at home against Richmond on their resume.

As bad as Wake Forest was a season ago, one of their three wins came against the Blue Devils (54-48). While Wake Forest has made some big improvements, Duke appears to have taken a step back.

The difference maker in this game will be Wake Forest quarterback Tanner Price. The sophomore has made incredible strides in his second season. He has thrown for 1,606 yards with 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions. In 9 starts last year, he threw for just 1,349 yards with 7 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

The Blue Devils have the 99th ranked pass defense in the nation, giving up 272.2 on average. I expect Price to get Wake Forest on the board early and often, in what I anticipate to be a blowout win for Wake Forest.

Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home, while Duke is just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games as a home underdog. BET THE DEMON DEACONS!

5* BIG EAST NO-DOUBT ATS SMASH: West Virginia -14

West Virginia should have no trouble winning this game by more than two touchdowns. The Mountaineers have been waiting for this game for over a year, after Syracuse upset them 19-14 in Morgantown last season. While a lot of the same players are back, this is a much better West Virginia team than the one from a year ago.

New head coach Dana Holgorsen has done away with the conservative approach of former head coach Bill Stewart and it is really showing on the offensive side of the ball. The Mountaineers are averaging 40.8 points and 503 yards of total offense per game. That is well above their 2010 averages of 25.2 points and 373 yards of total offense. There is a reason West Virginia is favored by two touchdowns on the road in this game, and I wouldn't be surprised if they won by 20+!

Syracuse doesn't have the talent to keep up with West Virginia for four quarters. I actually think playing at the Carrier Dome will be more of an advantage for West Virginia than it will for the Orange. Playing inside a dome will only boost the speed advantage the Mountaineers have.

West Virginia is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. BET THE MOUNTAINEERS!

5* PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK: Arizona -4.5

Arizona will be playing their first game after firing head coach Mike Stoops. Defensive coordinator Tim Kish has taken over as interim head coach, and it honestly couldn't have come at a better time for this team. Arizona comes in on a five game losing streak with the only win on the season coming in the season opener against Northern Arizona.

While I don't know for a fact, but I have a pretty good feeling the players were lacking a lot of confidence and motivation to play at a high level after such a disappointing start. The head coaching change will bring a new since of energy and life back to this team. Throw in the fact that this is a home game on ESPN in front of the entire nation, and I believe this will be the best performance of the season from the Wildcats.

Getting UCLA, who is just 3-3, is a big sigh of relief for Arizona. The Wildcats had an absolutely brutal schedule to start the season. Outside of Northern Arizona, their two other home games were against Stanford and Oregon. Add in three road games against Oklahoma St, USC, and Oregon St, and it's not to difficult to see why Arizona has lost five in a row.

I believe the energy will really help a defense that has struggled big time early on. The offense has played well enough to win, and tonight they should shred a UCLA defense that is giving up 428 yards of total offense on the road. Last year Arizona piled on 583 total yards in a 29-21 win at UCLA.

Arizona is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week, while the Bruins are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.

5* SUN BELT GAME OF THE YEAR: Florida International +3

In my opinion the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored in this game. FIU was considered by many to be right there with Troy as the team to beat in the Sun Belt this season, but have got off to an 0-1 start in conference play. Their lone conference loss came against Louisiana-Lafayette 31-36, but what a lot of people don't realize is star wide out T.Y. Hilton wasn't at a 100%. Hilton was still bothered by a hamstring injury suffered in FIU's win over UCF. The 2010 SBC Player of the Year is expected to be back at full strength for this game, as the Golden Panthers have had nine days to rest up their most explosive offensive player.

Hilton is without a question the best player in the Sun Belt Conference, and the reason why FIU should find a way to win this game. Despite the hamstring troubles, Hilton still leads the team with 37 catches for 641 yards and four touchdowns. He torched Arkansas State with 11 catches for 140 yards, including the game winning 41-yard touchdown grab that gave the Golden Panthers a 31-24 win.

A lot is being made of the Red Wolves passing attack behind junior quarterback Ryan Aplin. He has thrown for 1,646 yards and six touchdowns on the year, but his numbers are a bit exaggerated from playing the likes of Memphis, Central Arkansas, and Western Kentucky. Aplin had a lot of success throwing the ball in 2010, but was just 8 of 19 for 126 yards against FIU. The Golden Panthers have had plenty of time to prepare for what the Red Wolves want to do offensively.

One of the biggest keys to this game is the Golden Panthers ability to put pressure on the quarterback and the Red Wolves inability to protect their quarterback. FIU is averaging 2.83 sacks a game (19th), while Arkansas State comes in giving up 2.17 sacks a game (73rd).

FIU is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Arkansas State is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. BET THE GOLDEN PANTHERS!

5* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH: Georgia Tech -7

The Yellow Jackets aren't getting near the credit they deserve. This is a very good football team, with a great shot at winning the ACC. I look for Georgia Tech to have no trouble winning by more than a touchdown.

Georgia Tech piled on 536 total yards of offense in a 33-21 win over Virginia last year, and aren't going to have any trouble putting up another huge number against the Cavaliers. Virgina's defense looks good on paper, giving up an average of 116.4 rushing yards a game, but those numbers are extremely overrated. Virginia allowed 222 rushing yards to North Carolina, and 148 to Indiana. Georgia Tech is averaging 260 yards a game on the ground.

The Cavaliers aren't going to be able to stop the Yellow Jackets rushing attack, and simply aren't strong enough offensively to keep up and make this game.

Georgia Tech is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. BET THE YELLOW JACKETS!

5* Weeknight ATS Blowout: Hawaii -5

Hawaii comes in off an impressive 44-26 win at Louisiana Tech, a game in which they were 4.5-point underdogs. The Warriors simply don't get a lot of respect on the road, but this team is more than capable of beating a bad San Jose State by at least two field goals, especially off a bye week where they have had extra time to prepare for this game. Last year Hawaii crushed the Spartans 41-7 at home, outgaining San Jose State by 462 yards of total offense (626 to 164).

I see no reason why Hawaii's offense won't be able to have another big day against the Spartans. San Jose State comes in giving up 414 yards of total offense. Hawaii is averaging 430 yards, including 343.4 ypg through the air. In Hawaii's two losses this season they combined for just 61 yards rushing. San Jose State is giving up 192.3 ypg on the ground, which will make the Warriors offense nearly unstoppable in this one.

Hawaii is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 28-11-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games. BET THE WARRIORS!

5* PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK: USC -3

USC has won 7 straight over the California, including a 48-14 win at home in 2010 and a 30-3 win at Cal in 2009. I expect the game to be closer than it has in the past couple of years, but USC should have no trouble winning this game by at least a touchdown.

The USC offense is built on throwing the football behind junior quarterback Matt Barkley and sophomore wide out Robert Woods. Barkley has completed 70% of his passes for 1,587 yards with 14 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, while Woods has caught an amazing 55 passes for 747 yards and six scores.

Last year Barkley torched the Cal secondary for 352 yards and five touchdowns. Woods had 7 catches for 116 yards and two scores. I see no reason why the Trojans can't have similar success tonight. The Golden Bears come in giving up 228 passing yards a game, and will be without starting cornerback Marc Anthony, who would have likely been the one who covered Woods.

The big concern in this game is a USC defense that has been getting torched for big plays, but last year they held California to just 245 yards of total offense. I think the Golden Bears are going to have some success offensively, but not nearly enough to win or cover the spread.

USC is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0, while Cal is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. BET THE TROJANS!

5* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR: Iowa +4

The Iowa Hawkeyes have owned Penn State, winning eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams. The Hawkeyes have a very balanced offensive attack behind quarterback James Vandenberg, running back Marcus Coker, and wide out Marvin McNutt.

I believe the Hawkeyes will be able to move the ball and put points on the board against a very good Penn State defense. Vandenberg has thrown for 669 yards and six touchdowns in his last two games, while Coker has rushed for 338 yards and four touchdowns over his last three games.

Iowa's defense hasn't been that impressive early on, but they go up against a Penn State offense that has really struggled to move the football. The Nittany Lions managed just 16 points against an Indiana defense that had allowed at least 21 points in every other game this season.

The Hawkeyes always seem to keep the game close, which makes them a very strong play as a 4-point underdog. Iowa is 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games as an underdog and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. BET THE HAWKEYES!

5* FRIDAY NIGHT ESPN BEST BET: Boise State -20.5

Boise State is coming off back-to-back games in which they failed to cover the spread. I believe the oddsmakers have adjusted for that and it's now time to jump back on the Boise bandwagon for an easy cover.

Boise State is a perfect 4-0 on the season and ranked 6th overall. Because the Broncos play such a soft schedule, it is really important for them to put out their best effort any time they step in front of the national spotlight.

The Broncos have scored 51+ in each of the last three meetings with the Bulldogs. Kellen Moore has been the starting quarterback for all three. While the offense gets a lot of attention, the Broncos defense is holding opponents to just 16.7 ppg.

Boise State is 9-1 ATS vs Fresno State since 1992, 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games, and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. BET THE BRONCOS!

5* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH: Oregon -24

I believe we are going to see a very motivated and focused Oregon team tonight, as all the Ducks players have heard coming into this game is how well Cal played against them last year. The Golden Bears held Oregon to a season low in total yards (317), what so many people overlook about that game is that California was playing in front of their home crowd. The Golden Bears were just 1-4 away from home and will step into one of the toughest environments in college football tonight at Autzen Stadium.

The Ducks will also be out to show the nation that they are for real after losing to LSU in the national spotlight to start the season. Oregon is out to make a statement and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas the entire game. A lot is being made about California's run defense that is holding opponents to just 78.3 ypg. The problem with that stat is they haven't faced a rushing offense that is currently ranked higher than 58th in the country. On top of that the Golden Bears have just 3 starters returning on the front seven.

Both teams come into this game off a bye week. Even with the extra time it is very hard for a team like California to prepare for how fast Oregon plays. On the other side, Oregon has had two weeks to look back and pick apart what California did to slow them down a year ago.

The Ducks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. BET OREGON!

5* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR: Texas -9

Iowa State has opened the year up with 3-0 with an impressive 44-41 overtime win over instate rival Iowa. While that win was impressive, the Cyclones are not anywhere close to the level of Texas.

The Longhorns looked like a completely different team last week with Case McCoy starting at quarterback. The Longhorns put up 49 points on the road at UCLA after scoring just 51 in their first two games against Rice and BYU. Texas should have a field day against an Iowa State defense that has been less than impressive in their first three games.

Normally Texas will come into a game against Iowa State without much motivation, but that won't be the case this time around. Iowa State went into Texas and beat the Longhorns 28-21 a year ago. It was the first time the Cyclones had ever beat Texas, and I can guarantee you Texas is going to make sure that doesn't happen again this season.

Both teams have had plenty of time to prepare for this game, as they both had bye weeks last week. While getting an extra week to prepare is usually a positive. Iowa State is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. The Cyclones are also just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. BET TEXAS!

5* NCAAF ATS BLOCKBUSTER BLOWOUT: BYU -7.5

BYU is coming off a huge win over UCF that will give this team some much needed confidence after two straight losses. While BYU is riding a wave of momentum, Utah State is coming off their second heartbreaking loss of the season. The Aggies gave up an onside kick against Auburn in the opener that allowed the Tigers to win 42-38 and last week lost 34-35 in overtime against Colorado State.

BYU has not played up to their potential in the first four games of the season, and a lot of that has to do with their struggles on offense. The Cougars will be happy to see a Utah State defense that is allowing 31.3 ppg.

Utah State is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0, while BYU is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. BET THE COUGARS!

5* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR: Georgia -9.5

The Bulldogs are getting no respect after starting the season 1-2, but those two losses came against two very good teams (Boise State & South Carolina). If it wasn't for a couple of defensive touchdowns by the Gamecocks, Georgia would have likely won that game. On the other side Ole Miss has been downright awful to start the season. They allowed BYU to erase a 13 point deficit in the first game and were blown out last week at Vanderbilt 30-7, a team they beat 38-3 the year before.

Georgia is a lot more talented offensively than people realize, and I look for freshman running back to have a huge game against the Rebels defense. Ole Miss is allowing 198.3 ypg on the ground this season.

What really makes Georgia a strong play is their ability to defend the pass and keep the Rebels from mounting a comeback. Georgia is 13th in the nation allowing just 150 ypg through the air. The Rebels offense doesn't really do a whole lot that scares me in this one, as they are averaging just 252 yards of total offense per game. Look for the Bulldogs to jump out early and never look back.

Ole Miss is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. BET BIG ON THE BULLDOGS!

5* THURSDAY NIGHT MAIN EVENT: Cincinnati -7.5

Cincinnati hasn't forgot about last year's 30-19 loss at NC State and I look for them to come into this game looking to return the favor. Both teams come in with a 2-1 overall record, with both wins coming against some pretty bad teams. What sets these two teams apart is their two losses. Cincinnati lost at Tennessee 45-23, but what most people don't understand is just how good the Volunteers are this season. On the other hand, NC State lost at Wake Forest 34-27, a game in which they were trailing by 21 points in the third quarter. Losing to a good SEC team is a heck of a lot better loss than losing to a team inside your conference that you beat 38-3 the year before.

Another huge factor in this game is the injuries that NC State is dealing with on both sides of the ball. They will be without running back Mustafa Greene, defensive tackle J.R. Sweezy and linebacker Terrell Manning. There is also a chance they play without star defensive end Jeff Rieskam, but even if he suits up he won't be at full strength. Greene was a huge part of the Wolfpack win a year ago, rushing for 84 yards and a touchdown. While junior quarterback Mike Glennon has been impressive taking over for the departed Russell Wilson, he is easier to doesn't have any where near the mobility that Cincinnati had to worry about with Glennon.

The Bearcats were also without a key piece to their offense in last year's game, as they played without starting running back Isaiah Pead, who has rushed for 257 yards and four touchdowns to start the season. Pead figures to play a big role in this one, especially with all the injuries NC State has on the front seven.

Cincinnati is 30-11 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992 and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. BET CINCINNATI!

5* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK: Oklahoma State -13.5

Tulsa is a good football team, but they aren't on the same level as Oklahoma State. Tulsa already lost to Oklahoma by a final of 47-14. Oklahoma State just got done beating a good Arizona team 37-14 and the final score should have been a lot worse than what it was.

The Tulsa defense is no match for Oklahoma State's passing attack. Tulsa allowed Oklahoma to rack up 417 yards passing and another 246 on the ground. Even if the Cowboys fall 200 yards short of what Oklahoma put up, they should still win this game by 20+. No one wants to give the Oklahoma State defense any credit, but they have looked a lot better to start the season.

Oklahoma State is 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a road favorite, 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. BET THE COWBOYS!

5* NCAAF NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH: Boise State -20

A lot of people are looking at the Rockets near win over Ohio State as a sign that they will compete with the Broncos tonight. I don't see it that way at all. That was an in-state game where teams put everything on the line in order to win the game. They now must play one of the best teams in the country on short rest, while the Broncos have had 13 days off since beating Georgia.

Boise State crushed Toledo 57-14 last year, and I don't think they are 23-points better this time around. Defensively they are expected to be without linebacker Dan Molls, who is arguably their best defensive player. The Broncos are expected to lose a couple players because of eligibility, but that shouldn't keep them from winning this game by at least three scores.

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5* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK: Mississippi State +4.5

Mississippi State is very underrated and I not only think they will cover this spread, but I have them winning the game outright. The Bulldogs have actually outgained the Tigers in each of the last two seasons, and lost by just 4-points in the last meeting at home (26-30).

LSU is very strong defensively, but the Bulldogs have a very balanced offense that can beat you in so many ways. They have a dual threat quarterback in Chris Relf, a running back (Vick Ballard) who ran for nearly 1,000 yards with 19 touchdowns, and some underrated receivers. The Bulldogs are going to be able to put points on the board.

At the same time, I think Mississippi State will be able to keep the LSU offense from putting up a huge number. The defense is going to feed off the home crowd and it is going to be very difficult for LSU to get into any kind of rhythm. As long as the offense doesn't turn the ball over and give LSU great field position, I think the Bulldogs can hold the Tigers under 20 points tonight.

Mississippi State is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. BET THE BULLDOGS!

5* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK: South Carolina -3

I wasn't buying the Georgia hype before their loss to Boise State, and I can't believe they are only 3-point underdogs to an extremely talented South Carolina team. I really feel like Georgia is worse off offensively this year without A.J. Green. I know they played South Carolina to a 17-6 game last year without Green, but the Gamecocks were still growing as a team behind new freshman running back Marcus Lattimore. I look for South Carolina to have their way offensively with Georgia's defense, and do just enough defensively to keep the Bulldogs out of the game.

South Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0. BET SOUTH CAROLINA!

5* NCAAF ATS ABSOLUTE SMASH: Louisville -3

I believe the oddsmakers have set the line way too low in this game. Louisville did struggle in their opener against Murray State, while FIU beat a bad North Texas team 41-16. Even though FIU is one of the top teams in the Sun Belt, I will take my chances on them losing this game by more than a field goal. I expect Louisville to be more focused and sharp offensively after turning it over 4 times last week. Louisville should take control of this game early and cruise to an easy double-digit win.

The Cardinals are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 non-conference games, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. S-Belt, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. BET THE CARDINALS!

5* LABOR DAY NCAAF ATS BLOWOUT: Maryland -3.5

The Hurricanes will have eight players suspended for this game, and they are some pretty important players. On offense they lose starting quarterback Jacory Harris and No. 1 wide out Travis Benjamin. On defense they lose three potential All-Americans in defensive tackle Marcus Forston, linebacker Sean Spence, and safety Ray-Ray Armstrong. They also lose defensive ends Oliver Vernon, Adewale Ojomo, and Dyron Dye.

While the Hurricanes figure to struggle to find a rhythm in this game, I am excited to see Maryland in their first game under new head coach Randy Edsall. One thing is for certain, Edsall will have his players focused and ready to play, not relaxed and thinking this will be a cake walk with so many players out.

Maryland is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Miami on the other hand is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games. BET MARYLAND!

5* NCAAF NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK: SMU +16.5

Texas A&M is coming into the 2011 season with a ton of hype, which has the spread in their opener set too high against a very talented SMU team. The Mustangs have 18 starts back from a team that went 7-7 last year, including 10 to an offense that averaged 25.7 ppg.

I think the Aggies will win this game, but I don't expect them to runaway with this game. They are strong on defense, but offensively I don't think they will have their way the SMU defense.

SMU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater, while Texas A&M is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. BET SMU!

5* TCU/BAYLOR ATS SMASH: Baylor +5

I will gladly take the 5 points at home in this one. TCU is not even close to the team that finished 13-0 last year. They have just eight starters back (3 offense, 5 defense), plus they lose a very special player in quarterback Andy Dalton. Baylor has 14 starters back (9 offense, 5 defense). Their defense doesn't figure to be all that great, but their offense should be able to score on just about anyone. Junior quarterback Robert Griffin III not only threw for 3,501 yards with 22 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions, but he also rushed for 635 yards and eight scores.

TCU is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. BET BAYLOR!

5* NO-DOUBT OPENING NIGHT ATS BLOWOUT: Mississippi State -29

Mississippi State rolled Memphis 49-7 at home in 2010. While the game will be played in Memphis this year, I wouldn't be surprised if the Bulldogs won by more than 40 again. Mississippi State is a true sleeper in the SEC this season, as they return 16 starters from last year, including 9 on the offensive side of the ball. Memphis went 2-11 in 2010 and should be even worse in 2011 with just nine starters back. The Tigers return just three starters to an offense that managed just nine first downs against Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. The Tigers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC. BET MISSISSIPPI STATE!

5* BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER: Oregon +1.5

I think Oregon' offense has enough talent to really move the ball against the Auburn defense, and over the course of the game, the Ducks are going to wear down Auburn with their tempo, which I believe will be even more of a factor in this game, because the Tigers haven't played at game speed for over a month. I think the Ducks defensively can use their speed to get to Newton, and really create some problems for the Auburn offense.

While everyone will talk about Oregon's running game, I think wide out Jeff Maehl is going to have a huge game against the Auburn defense. The Tigers struggled all season against the top wide outs in the SEC, and because they will have to pay so much attention to the Ducks running game, Maehl will have plenty of chances to make big plays.

Because the Ducks score so quickly they don't really hold onto the ball all that much, but that has been a problem for Auburn in the past. They are just 6-17 ATS vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992. Oregon is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games as an underdog.

5* COTTON BOWL TOP PLAY: LSU -2.5

As good as Texas A&M played down the stretch, I don't think they are much of a match for LSU. LSU ending the regular season with a loss at Arkansas, I think really gives them the motivation needed to practice hard and really want to come away with a win. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games, and just simply have more talent than the the Aggies.

Texas A&M is just 4-18 ATS in road games after a bye week since 1992, and are 10-22 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992. LSU is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0, and are 15-3 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.

5* Pick: Miami +2.5

A lot of people are jumping on Middle Tennessee after Miami head coach Michael Haywood left to coach Pitt, but this is a very talented Miami team, that has won five straight, including an impressive win over Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game. The big reason I like Miami is the Blue Raiders can't stop the run. Middle Tenn allowed 236 or more rushing yards in three of their final four games. At the same time Miami allowed just under 78 yards a game on the ground. Look for the Red Hawks to control the clock and the game, and I think they win this game outright. BET MIAMI!

5* SUGAR BOWL WINNER: Ohio State -3

I think the oddsmakers have it right with Ohio State favored in this game. Had the Buckeyes not got off to a terrible start against Wisconsin, they very well could be playing in the National Championship. Ohio State ranks second in the nation in overall defense, and I think they can at least keep Mallett and the Arkansas offense in check. On the other side of the ball, i think Arkansas is going to have a really tough time stopping the running game of Ohio State, which will allow the Buckeyes to control the clock and the game. The Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bowl games, and are 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Ohio State is also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.BET OHIO STATE!

5* ORANGE BOWL WINNER: Stanford -3.5

I think there is no question that you have to take Stanford in this one, as they not only have a better defense than the Hokies, but they have one of the best quarterbacks in the game in Andrew Luck. The Cardinal have held their opponents to just 12 points a game during the second half of the season. Stanford is 9-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons, and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Bet Stanford!

5* ROSE BOWL WINNER: WISCONSIN +3

No way the Badgers should be underdogs in this game. Wisconsin's offensive line will be able to pave running lanes against the TCU defense, which will allow the Badgers to control the clock and game. I think Wisconsin will not only cover but win this game outright. The Badgers are 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, and are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. BET WISCONSIN!

5* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK - AutoZone LIBERTY BOWL: Georgia -6.5

The Bulldogs were a completely different team once A.J. Green joined them after his four game suspension, and I think there is no question that you have to take an SEC team over a team from CUSA. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games, and are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 bowl games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. The extra time to prepare has really helped the Bulldogs in the past, as they are 18-7 ATS in road games after a bye week since 1992. BET GEORGIA!

5* Hawaii -10

The Warriors passing attack is going to prove to be too much for Tulsa to keep up with. Hawaii also gets this game at home, where they are 7-0 ATS this season, as opposing teams struggle to play well after the long trip. Hawaii is allowing just 19 points a game at home this season, while scoring 45 a game. Look for the Warriors to jump out early and cruise to an easy win in this one. Hawaii is 17-4 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992, and 8-1 ATS in games played on turf this season. Tulsa is just 5-15 ATS in road games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.

5* MAACO BOWL WINNER: Boise State -16.5

I am all over the Broncos -16.5 tonight against the Utes. Utah has been overrated all season, and it really showed in their losses to TCU and Notre Dame. I believe the Broncos have the edge on both sides of the football, and if they come out strong, they could cover this game by half.

Boise State has been a covering machine over the last three seasons, beating the spread in 26 of their last 38 games. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons, and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Utah covered the spread just once in their final five games! BET BOISE STATE!

5* Pick: Louisville -2.5

I believe this game is going to be one with defense, and in my opinion the Cardinals are by far the better team on that side of the ball. Southern Miss gave up an average of 39 points over their last three games, while Louisville held opponents to just 18.7 points all season. The Cardinals have had plenty of time to prepare for the Golden Eagles offensive attack, and I think they end up winning this game easily.

The Cardinals are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 non-conference games, and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. CUSA. BET LOUISVILLE!

5* Pick: Virginia Tech Hokies -3

I believe there is excellent value on Virginia Tech this weekend, as they come into the game on 10-game winning streak. The Hokies closest game in conference play this season was a seven point win over Georgia Tech. The Hokies have an excellent running game and are great at forcing turnovers. The Hokies also matchup very well with what Florida State likes to do on offense.

Virginia Tech is 38-17 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. Also you want to play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Virginia Tech) - after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game, as its 62-25 since 1992.

5* Pick: Northern Illinois -17.5

The Huskies are by far the better team in this matchup, and with their first ever MAC Championship on the line, I think you can expect this team to come out and play their best game. While both teams went 5-0 against common opponents, the Huskies dominated their games, and were a perfect 5-0 ATS in those games. Miami doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Huskies, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Huskies covering by half. Northern Illinois is a perfect 7-0 ATS against conference opponents this season, and are 8-1 ATS in games played on turf this season. Miami is just 3-12 ATS in road games off a home win by 17 points or more since 1992, and only 1-9 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992.

5* Pick: Wisconsin -23

The Badgers win this game and they earn at least a share of the Big Ten title and most likely a spot in a BCS bowl game, so you know they are going to come out firing. The Wildcats are without quarterback Dan Persa, and their offense is going to struggle to do much of anything in this game. With the way the Badgers run the ball, I think Wisconsin will win by 40 in this one! Wisconsin is 28-14 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992, and are 16-6 ATS in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992.

5* Pick: Boise State -14

While this might be the final test for Boise State, I don't think the Wolfpack are going to bring much of a challenge in this one. Nevada's defense is simply not that good, at least not good enough to slow down the Broncos offense. On the other hand Boise State's defense is very underrated and I think they give Nevada a lot of trouble. The Broncos are 8-3 ATS against Nevada since 1992, and are 21-8 ATS after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. Boise State is also a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

5* Pick: Texas A&M -3.5

Texas hasn't won a home game all season, and I don't think that is going to change against a very good Texas A&M team that has won five straight, including three in a row against Oklahoma, Baylor, Nebraska. The Aggies defense should be able to take advantage of a Texas offense that lacks the ability to make big plays and is prone to mistakes. On offense Texas A&M should be able to move the ball and find a way to put points on the board, as the Longhorns have given up at least 28 points in each of their last four conference games. Texas is also just 5-13 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

*Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS A&M) - after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game, as its 62-25 since 1992.

5* COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE WEEK: Nebraska -2

Not only do I think the Cornhuskers cover the spread, but I think they are going to win easily. Nebraska is too strong on the defensive side of the ball, and with a healthy Taylor Martinez on offense, I don't see any way the Cornhuskers don't win by at least a field goal. Nebraska is 8-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons, and 6-0 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Texas A&M is just 4-13 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Bet Nebraska!

5* pick: Miami -9.5

With the injury to starting quarterback Zac Dysert the spread on this game has dropped four points, and I think it makes it a can't miss play. Backup Austin Boucher looked pretty good when given the chance to play, and will go up against a Akron defense that ranks last against the pass in the MAC and is 107th in the nation, allowing 269 yards a game. Akron has the second worst offense in the country, and I think Miami wins this game by 20-plus points. Miami is 13-4 ATS in road games off a road win against a conference rival since 1992, while the Zips are just 6-15 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

5* COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE WEEK: NC State -17.5

Excellent value on the Wolfpack this weekend. Wake Forest is one of the worst teams in any BCS conference, and simply are no match for NC State on either side of the ball. The Wolfpack are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons, and are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons!

5* Pick: Boise State -34.5

The Broncos should have no trouble beating Idaho by more than 35 points tonight. The Vandals allowed 844 yards to Nevada last week, and 494 to Hawaii the week before. Boise State is going to have their way with the Vandals on both sides of the ball, and could be covering by half time in this one. Boise State is 12-2 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons, and are 14-3 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games since 1992.

*Play Against - A home team (IDAHO) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points, its 28-4 over the last 10 seasons.

5* Pick: Pittsburgh -5.5

Don't be scared by the Huskies 4-0 home record this season. Three of those wins came against weak opponents and last week they barely beat West Virginia and were +4 in turnovers. Pittsburgh has really turned it on, scoring a ton of points and playing great defense. The Huskies offense was shut out two games ago against Louisville, and while homefield plays an advantage, I think its getting over played in this one. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons, and 8-1 ATS in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

*Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - off a win against a conference rival against opponent off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less, as its 48-19 since 1992.

5* THURSDAY NIGHT COLLEGE FOOTBALL SMASH

Since failing to cover in their first two games of the season, the Hokies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games, and I see no reason why that streak will come to an end this Thursday. The Hokies offense is really on a roll, and once they get the Yellow Jackets in a hole, they should be able to pull away, as Georgia Tech can

5* TUESDAY NIGHT COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR: Midd Tenn -1.5

I think your money has to be on the Blue Raiders to cover the 1.5 point spread. Arkansas State is really struggling on the defensive side of the football this season, allowing right around 453 yards and just over 30 points a game. Middle Tennessee is 11-1 ATS when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons, while Arkansas State is just 1-8 ATS when they allow 29 to 35 points over the last 3 seasons. Middle Tennessee is 7-2 against the spread versus Arkansas State since 1992, and a perfect 8-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. BET MIDDLE TENNESSEE!

4* FRIDAY NIGHT COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOOKIE SMASH: West Virginia -6

Forget the loss last week at Syracuse, West Virginia didn't play well at all and still was in the game with a chance to win. Connecticut on the other hand looked about as bad as you can losing 0-26 against Louisville. Connecticut is down to third string quarterback Zach Frazer, and he figures to have his hands full against a very talented West Virginia defense that comes in ranked 4th in the nation allowing just 245 total yards a game. Offensively the Mountaineers should have no trouble moving the ball against a soft Huskies defense, that allowed Louisville 355 yards of total offense in their last game. The Mountaineers are 17-4 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992, and are are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.

5* THURSDAY NIGHT COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP PLAY

Not only do I think the Wolfpack are going to cover the spread tonight, but I think they are going to win this game outright. North Carolina State is powered by junior quarterback Russell Wilson, and I believe he will be able to move the ball against the Florida State defense with his arm and his feet. The Wolfpack are coming off a tough overtime loss against East Carolina, and I think that game served as another wake-up call for this team, and I think they come out in front of the home crowd and put on show on offense. The Wolfpack don't have the best defense, so look for Florida State to keep it close, but with the four points, even if the Seminoles sneak out a win, the cover should be there!

5* COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE WEEK: West Virginia -14

It doesn't get any better than this in college football this weekend. The Orange four wins this season have came against Akron, Maine, Colgate, and South Florida. All of those teams can't score against any BCS football team. The Oranges two losses have been by 19 to Washington and 31 last week to Pitt. The West Virginia defense is the third best in the country allowing just 13 points a game, and offensively the Mountaineers are going to have over 30 points in this game. this game won't even be close, and West Virginia will have this one locked in the bag by half!

5* Friday Night College Football BOOKIE BREAKER: Cincinnati -7.5

I am all over the Bearcats in this game, as the Bulls simply don't have the offense to keep this game within double digits. South Florida will likely keep this game close early, but I look for the Bearcats to beat them with the deep ball on offense. The Bearcats are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win, and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference games. South Florida on the other hand is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Bet Cincinnati!

5* College Football Game of the Week: NC State -7

This is about as easy as it gets this weekend, as the Wolfpack are going to have no problem winning this game by double digits, in fact I think they will end up winning it by at least 20. East Carolina is simply overmatched, and will not be able to stop the Wolfpack offense in this one. The Wolfpack are 15-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.

5* Pick: West Virginia -8

I am all over the Mountaineers tonight. South Florida is really struggling on offense this season, and going on the road and facing a strong defense like West Virginia is not going to help matters. The Mountaineers have the playmakers on offense to get the job done. The game will likely be close early with South Florida also strong on the defensive side, but I expect West Virginia to pull away starting in the second quarter. The Mountaineers are a perfect 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bet big on West Virginia in this one!

4* Pick Central Florida -4

After what UCF did to UAB last Wednesday, I see no reason why to not jump on the Knights again this week, as they take on a Marshall team that has won one game all season, and was blown out by Southern Miss 41-16 in their last game. The Thundering Herd can't score the football, and are giving up just over 35 points a game. UCF is a good bet against defenses who struggle against the run, and the Thundering Herd are allowing 174 yards a game on the ground. The Knights are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

5* GAME OF THE WEEK: Arkansas -5

One of my favorite plays all weekend, as I think the Razorbacks are going to roll the Aggies in this game. Texas A&M turns the ball over way too much, and their defense was really exposed last week against Oklahoma State. I believe the oddsmakers have completely screwed up on this game, as I have the Razorbacks winning going away in this one.

The Aggies are just 3-14 ATS in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. The Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, and are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big 12.

4* Wednesday Night College Football Smash: UCF -12

I really like UCF to come away with a big win over UAB tonight. The Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games, and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. UAB is just 1-3 against he spread this season. The Knights defense should be able to really slow down the Blazers in this game, while UCF should have no trouble throwing over 30 points on the board in this game. UAB has allowed at least 28 points in each game this season. Take the Knights in an easy confernce home win!

5* College Football Game of the Week: Iowa -7

This is one my favorite plays of the day, as I think the Hawkeyes are going to roll all over the Nittany Lions this Saturday. Iowa has won five of the last eight, and I think their defense is going to make life very difficult for freshman quarterback Robert Bolden.The Hawkeyes are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game,and are 12-4 in their last 16 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

5* College Football Bookie Beatdown: Texas A&M +3.5

The Aggies come in losers of the last two against Oklahoma State, but have never lost three straight against the Cowboys in their 25 game history. The key to the Aggies covering the spread in this game is the fact that they are more talented on the defensive side of the ball. You want to bet On - Any team (TEXAS A&M) - after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent, as it's 31-8 since 1992.Forget Johnson's terrible game against Florida Atlantic, the Cowboys will not be able to put that same kind of pressure on him and he will have a much better day throwing the football. Oklahoma State is heavily overrated entering this game, as they have really bolstered their stats against poor competition. Texas A&M is a legit contender to win the Big 12 South this season, and they will show that this week with a big win on the road at Oklahoma State.

5* THURSDAY NIGHT COLLEGE FOOTBALL WINNER: Miami -3

The Hurricanes made committed a number of penalties and had four turnovers against Ohio State in their last game, and still only loss by 12-points. I believe the Hurricanes are more talented on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, and will show why they came into the season as the favorite to win the ACC. The Hurricanes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, while the Panthers are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in September.

5* COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE WEEK: Texas -3

No question the Longhorns should be favored by more than 3-points in this game. Texas is a young team that is only going to get better as the season goes along, and don't be fooled by the Red Raiders 2-0 record, those were two easy games. The key in this game is you want to play against - Home underdogs (TEXAS TECH) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, as its
36-13 over the last 10 seasons.

4* CFBALL MONEYMAKER: Temple -7

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, as its 26-5 (83.9%) since 1992.Temple is also 9-1 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons.

4* JANUS WEEK 1 GAME OF THE DAYTexas -31

The Longhorns have scored 50+ points in each of their last four games against Rice, with the average score being Texas 53 Rice 10. The Longhorns have a lot of young talent making their way on to the field in this one, or they would be favored by even more in this one. I look for Texas to honestly come close to covering the spread by halftime in this one, and I believe they cruise to an easy win.

5* THURSDAY NIGHT COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE WEEK: USC -21

Take the USC Trojans to cover the 21 poitns against the Warriors on Thursday. USC is the far superior team in this one, and I feel like they are going to be on a mission this season with all the negative talk that has surrounded the program this offseason. USC has won 12 straight season openers, and will without a doubt make it 13 tonight. Bet USC!

3* CFBALL ODDSMAKER BLOWOUT: South Carolina -14

This is a complete mismatch, as I have the Gamecocks absolutely murdering Southern Miss on Thursday. South Carolina has been really good on Thursday night openers, as they have won 4 of their last five ESPN games on Thursday night. Not to mention head coach Steve Spurrier is 24-1 in season openers. Look out for the South Carolina offense in this one, as I think they are going to be extremely balanced with the addition of freshman running back Marcus Lattimore and junior quarterback Stephen Garcia.

5* Blue Chip Bet on Arkansas -7

I'm taking the SEC team over the Conference USA team in this Liberty Bowl showdown. Arkansas played a much more difficult schedule this season and proved they could play with some of the best teams in the nation. ECU had a nice season overall, but against weak enough competition that the Razorbacks should roll.

Arkansas had a monster year offensively scoring 37.3 points per game and racking up 439 yards of total offense per game. Defensively they weren't as strong allowing 25.7 points per game, but because they were playing opponents that averaged 27 points per game I think they've proven their defense can step up to the task.

ECU won Conference USA and finished the regular season 9-4, but their schedule ranked as just the 66th toughest in the FBS. They are a solid rushing team, but I do not believe they have enough offensive weapons to hang with the Razorbacks Saturday night. Take Arkansas to win big.

5* Blue Chip Bet on Miami -3.5

Both Miami and Wisconsin enter the Champs Sports Bowl with 9-3 regular season record, but Miami has played a notably more difficult schedule. The Hurricanes also need to travel just over 200 miles from Miami to Orlando's Citrus Bowl. Wisconsin's fans typically do travel well, but they will still need to travel over 1,300 miles to Orlando and will be in front of what amounts to a home crowd for the Hurricanes.

Miami had an impressive regular season on offense, scoring 31.7 points per game against opponents allowing just 24.6 points per game. They also managed 412 total yards per game against opponents who averaged giving up just 352 yards per game. The Hurricanes did most of their damage through the air, throwing for 286 yards per game, good for 8.3 yards per attempt.

Defensively the Hurricanes were stout against a difficult schedule. They ended up allowing 22.3 points per game against teams averaging just under 27 points per game and held their opponents to under 3.5 yards per rush and under 7 yards per pass attempt.

Wisconsin also put up solid numbers offensively, scoring 23.7 points per game and averaging better than 415 yards per game, doing most of their damage on the ground at 207 rushing yards per contest. This is actually good news for the Hurricanes, who have played some of their best football this season against strong rushing teams. During the regular season Miami gave up over 200 rushing yards in a game just 3 times with those games ending in huge wins for the Canes (48-16, 52-17, and 31-10). Take Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl Wednesday.