5* Washington St/Washington Pac-12 Game of the Month

---Washington Huskies -16.5---

While this may seem like too many points for an in-state rivalry matchup, Washington is clearly the better team and have played their best football at home. The Huskies are going to be extremely motivated to exact revenge from last year's 28-31 overtime loss to the Cougars. Washington someone managed to blow a 28-10 lead in the 4th quarter of that game. Not only will the Huskies be out for revenge, but this is clearly a letdown spot for Washington State. With last week's victory over Utah, the Cougars became bowl eligible and will be headed to their first bowl game since 2003. It's going to be hard for them to come in 100% focused and play up to their potential. Even if they play their best football, there's still a good chance Washington wins this game going away. The Huskies are outscoring the opposition at Husky Stadium 41.5 to 14.7 (+26.8).

Home favorites who are an excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are 42-18 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET WASHINGTON -16.5!

5* Mountain West Conference Blue Chip Game of the Month

---Wyoming Cowboys -6---

Thanks to a four game losing streak and back-to-back blowout losses to Fresno St and Boise St, we find Wyoming showing amazing value at home at less than a touchdown favorite against the winless Warriors. Only once all season has Hawaii lost a game by less than a touchdown!

Not only will the Cowboys be motivated coming off a couple of ugly losses, but this is their last home game of the season and will clearly step up their game for the seniors on this team. That's not even the biggest motivator. At 4-6 with two games left, Wyoming still has a chance to become bowl eligible.

Both of these teams have horrible defenses. Hawaii ranks 106th in the country (473.7 ypg) and Wyoming ranks 11th (487.0). However, only one of these two teams has an offense that is capable of taking advantage. Believe it or not, the Cowboys have the 26th ranked offense in the nation, averaging 469.1 ypg. Hawaii on the other hand ranks 88th at just 376.0 ypg.

It's no secret that the long travel for Hawaii is one of the big reasons they don't play all that well on the road. Adding to this is that Road team who are being outrushed by their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season after a game where they allowed 6 or more yards/carry are just 20-50 (28.6%) ATS since 1992. BET THE COWBOYS -6!

5* Blue Chip Big 10 Game of the Month

---Michigan State Spartans -5---

Nebraska has dominated this series with seven straight wins, but it will be Michigan State who will be in complete control of the Cornhuskers on Saturday. The Spartans defense is simply too strong for Nebraska's one dimensional rushing attack. Michigan State leads the country in total defense (210.4 ypg) and rushing defense (43.6 ypg). It was going to be hard enough for Nebraska to move the football, but it will be even more of a challenge with the Spartans having had two full weeks to prepare for this game.

Once Nebraska is forced to abandon the run and start throwing, it's going to lead to turnovers. While I wouldn't be surprised if the Spartans didn't get a defensive touchdown in this game, they should set the offense up with great field position. Offensively the Spartans are a bit challenged, but they have quietly been getting better as the season progresses. Sophomore quarterback Connor Cook has been a difference maker, as has junior running back Jeremy Langford. Cook has thrown for at least 200 yards in four of his last 5 games and has 13 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions on the season. Langford comes in having rushed for 100 yards in four straight games and has scored six touchdowns during this stretch. The Nebraska defense isn't as good as the numbers would indicate and are just 60th in the country vs the run (160.0 ypg).

Michigan State is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games vs a team with a winning record and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games. BET THE SPARTANS -5!

5* Blue Chip American Athletic Game of the Month

---SMU Mustangs -14---

Connecticut is one of the worst BCS football teams in the country and while SMU isn't exactly a powerhouse, they should have no trouble winning at home by at least two touchdowns. The Mustangs have the 5th ranked passing attack in the country, averaging 383.5 ypg and come in averaging a respectable 31.8 points/game. Just recently Connecticut allowed 388 passing yards in a 16-41 loss at Cincinnati and 351 in a 17-62 loss at UCF. SMU is averaging 41.2 ppg at home this season and that should be more than enough offense to get us the cover. The Mustangs defense isn't great, but they will be greatly helped out by the fact that Connecticut is downright awful offensively. The Huskies rank 120th in scoring (15.6 ppg) and 121st in total offense (286.7 ypg). The most points Connecticut has scored in a single game all season is 21. If SMU was on the road there wouldn't be near as much value, but I feel like this a gift from the books. BET SMU -14!

5* SEC Blue Chip Game of the Month

---Mississippi State Bulldogs +19.5---

With Texas A&M coming off back-to-back wins and covers, I believe oddsmakers have inflated this line by too many points. Mississippi State might not have the talent to win this game, but they should have no problem losing by less than 20-points.

The Aggies only conference win this season by more 20+ points came a couple weeks back against Vanderbilt, but the Commodores were playing without their starting quarterback. The reason for that is Texas A&M is very weak defensively. The Aggies come into this game ranked 94th in the country in total defense. They are 98th against the run (200.9 ypg) and 75th against the pass (242.2 ypg). Mississippi State is a respectable 42nd in the country in total offense with an impressive 198.5 average on the ground.

The Bulldogs may have got it handed to them last week against South Carolina, but keep in mind the Gamecocks have the 25th ranked defense in the country. It's also worth noting that the Bulldogs played extremely well on the road at Auburn earlier losing 20-24 on a late touchdown.

Here's a strong system supporting this play. Road underdogs who are a good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) after 7+ games are 34-7 (83%) ATS over the last 5 seasons! BET MISSISSIPPI STATE +19.5!

5* Oregon/Stanford Blue Chip Top Play

---Oregon Ducks -10---

The Ducks won't have their perfect season snapped by the Cardinal a second straight year. Last year's win by Stanford came as a bit of surprise, as Oregon had won the previous two matchups by at least three touchdowns. Revenge is a sweet thing and I believe the Ducks are going to lay it on a Stanford team that simply isn't as strong as they were a year ago. The Cardinal defense lost a key piece in senior defensive Ben Gardner, who was lost for the season.

The big difference from last year to this year is the Oregon Ducks are a more complete offense. You have to remember star quarterback Marcus Mariota was just a freshman last year. He's made remarkable improvements in his sophomore season. Last year Oregon averaged just 222 ypg through the air. In 2013 they have th3 21st ranked passing offense at 300.6 ypg and should be able to exploit a Stanford defense that ranks 86th against the pass (250.1 ypg).

So much is also being made about the Stanford defense, but I think it's the Ducks stop unit that is going to be the difference in this game. The Cardinal offense is pretty mediocre and let's not forget they only scored 17 points last year. While they get back starting quarterback Keith Hogan, they lost a very good running back in Stepfan Taylor and a NFL tight end in Zach Ertz. Taylor had a 161 yards against the Ducks, while Ertz caught 11 passes for 106 yards and a score. I'm not saying I don't think the Cardinal will be able to score, I just don't believe they will be able to keep pace with Ducks. BET OREGON -10!

5* Ohio/Buffalo Blue Chip MAC Game of the Week

---Buffalo Bulls -3.5---

Buffalo comes into this game having won six straight since opening the season with back-to-back losses at Ohio State and Baylor. In each of their last 5 games they have won by at least 20-points and covered the spread in all 5. This team is simply not getting the respect the deserve because they don't have a signature win and partly due to the fact that they went just 4-8 last year. That's going to change tonight.

Not to take anything away from Ohio, but they had their hands full against Buffalo last year. The Bulls put 313 rushing yards and were without their star back Brandon Oliver in a heartbreaking 31-38 loss. Needless to say the Bulls will be extra motivated with revenge on their minds. The Bobcats held a horrific Miami (OH) offense to just 85 rushing yards in their last game, but in the two prior to that they allowed 523 combined to Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan.

Another huge factor in this game is injuries. The Bulls come in as healthy as they have been on all season, while Ohio has eight different players listed as question and are already without the services of starting left tackle John Prior and senior defensive end Ty Branz.

Another key to this game is turnovers. Buffalo hasn't had a single turnover in four straight games and are an impressive +15 in the turnover department this season. Look for the Bulls to win the turnover battle at home and win this game by 7-10 points. BET BUFFALO -3.5!

5* In-State Rivalry Game of the Year

---Michigan State Spartans -4---

I

5* ACC Blockbuster Blue Chip Game of the Month

---Virginia Tech Hokies -4---

Virginia Tech should be a much bigger favorite this week over Boston College. The Hokies loss to Duke may appear bad, but the Blue Devils have been playing extremely well and are better than they get credit for. The loss also doesn't hurt Virginia Tech's chances of winning the ACC Coastal. If they win out they will play in the ACC Championship Game.

Had they won last week, I could see them possibly overlooking the Eagles, but instead Boston College will have the Hokies full attention. The Eagles have played well against Florida State and Clemson, but both of those teams were in a look ahead spot and likely weren't all that concerned with Boston College.

The Eagles have the 108th ranked offense in the country, averaging a mere 279.7 ypg and most of that has come from their running game (176.6 ypg). Virginia Tech has the 3rd ranked total defense (248.8) and 5th ranked run defense (91.0 ypg) in the country. I strongly believe Boston College will be luckily to get 10 points. That means all we need is the Hokies to score two touchdowns against the 83rd ranked defense in the country to get a push at worse. Let's not forget USC and their poor offense put up 35 points on the Eagles earlier this season with Kiffin still as the coach.

This is a complete mismatch in talent and I believe the final score will prove that on Saturday. BET VIRGINIA TECH -4!

5* NCAAF Blue Chip Undervalued Underdog Top Play

---Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks +3---

The Warhawks have rebounded nicely from a three-game losing streak with back-to-back wins over Texas State and Georgia State. This team is back to playing with confidence and still have a legit shot at winning the Sun Belt title.

A lot of people are going to look at ULM

5* Pac-12 Blue Chip ATS Game of the Year

---Stanford Cardinal -3.5---

Thanks to the Cardinal's loss at Utah a couple weeks back and the Beavers riding a six-game winning streak, I believe we have found amazing value on Stanford laying less than 4-points.

Oregon State has an impressive 51-48 win at Utah on their resume, but victories over San Diego State, Colorado, Washington St and Cal are not impressive to say the least. This is also a team that lost to Eastern Washington in the season opener.

The big key here is the Stanford defense isn't going to allow the Beavers to come close to their 44.1 average points/game. That's important to note, because the Oregon State defense is not very good. They are ranked 63rd in the country overall and a miserable 97th against the pass (265.0 ypg). They are a respectable 29th against the run, but that number is a direct result of the lack of talent they have played. They allowed Utah to rush for 260 yards on the ground and allowed 539 yards overall.

Stanford has covered the spread just once in their last three games and that's a good sign for a cover from the Cardinal, as they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to cover the number in 2 out of the last 3.

The Oregon State passing attack that's leading the country with an average of 442.1 ypg could be a concern, but the Cardinal are 18-7 in road games vs teams who are averaging less than 120 rushing yards and 6-0 ATS vs teams with a completion % of 62% or better. BET STANFORD!

5* Sun Belt Blue Chip Game of the Week

---Arkansas State +3---

The wrong team is favored in this matchup. Arkansas State should not be catching points at home. The Red Wolves have won two straight in the series, including a 50-27 victory at Louisiana-Lafayette last year. In that game Arkansas State had a 526 to 450 edge in total yards, despite playing on a short field several times due to five Ragin' Cajuns turnovers. They had a 26-7 halftime lead and it could have been much worse, as the Red Wolves settled for four field goals (5 total for the game).

Arkansas State enters just 3-3, but those three losses have come on the road against Auburn, Missouri and Memphis. Auburn is currently No. 11 and Missouri is No. 5, while Memphis has the 13th ranked defense in the country. The Red Wolves are a perfect 3-0 at home and are now 11-1 at Liberty Bank Stadium dating back to the 2011 season.

Look for the Arkansas State offense, that comes in ranked 25th in the country averaging 479.6 ypg to have their way with Louisiana-Lafayette defense. The Ragin' Cajuns just allowed 471 yards of offense last week to Western Kentucky. I also think the Red Wolves run defense is going to surprise in this game. Arkansas State is allowing 194 ypg on the ground, but almost all of those game in their three road games against much strong competition. They are allowing just 99 ypg on 2.8 yards/carry at home. When it comes to which defense will make more stops, you have to give the edge to the home team. BET ARKANSAS STATE!

5* ACC Blue Chip Game of The Month

--Maryland -6---

The Terrapins were able to bounce back from that ugly loss to Florida State with an impressive 27-26 win over Virginia. Maryland was without starting quarterback C.J. Brown against the Cavaliers and have to feel good about getting a victory behind inexperienced sophomore quarterback Caleb Rowe. Despite completing just 18 of 34 attempts, Rowe threw for 332 yards with 1 touchdown and no interceptions.

With Brown listed as probable this week against Wake Forest, look for the Maryland offense to be even more efficient against the Demon Deacons. Prior to suffering the injury, Brown had completed 63.7% of his attempts for 1,125 yards with 7 touchdowns to just one interception. Maryland is 4-0 ATS in games where Brown starts and finishes the contest and 0-2 ATS when he

5* Blue Chip Big 12 Game of the Year

---Oklahoma State -7---

This is the spot to jump on the Cowboys laying only a touchdown against a TCU. Oklahoma State is better than they have played so far this season and I look for their best performance of the season coming off a bye. Last year the Cowboys beat TCU by a final of 36-14 and that's with Oklahoma State spotting the Horned Frogs 14 points to start the game, including a interception that was returned for a score. The Cowboys also settled for five field goals in that game.

The Horned Frogs have kept it close against some quality teams, but they simply are not the same team without Casey Pachall in the mix at quarterback. Pachall and current starter Trevone Boykin came into the season splitting reps, but with Pachall out its been all Boykin, whose 5 touchdowns this season have come against SE Louisiana, SMU and Kansas. He failed to throw a single touchdown pass in TCU's two games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, while recording two interceptions. Boykin was 21 of 40 for 185 yards last year against Oklahoma State and the TCU offense as a whole managed just 223 yards.

Even with Oklahoma State failing to cover a 13-point spread against Kansas State in their last home game, they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games as a favorite and adding even more value is the fact that they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 following a game where they failed to cover the spread. It's also worth noting that TCU is just 1-6 ATS following a SU win, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 conference games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing. BET OKLAHOMA STATE!

5* Friday Night Blue Chip Top Play

---UCF +14.5---

The Knights should not be catching two touchdowns in this game. UCF is capable of winning this game outright, especially after watching Louisville struggle at home last week in the spotlight against Rutgers. The Cardinals have faced a very easy schedule to this point, which has people thinking this team is a lot better than what they really are. UCF has already proven themselves. They went on the road and upset Penn State 34-31 and nearly pulled off a win in their next game at home against South Carolina. The Knights will not be intimidated by the pressure of this game. In fact, Louisville is the team with something to lose. A win here by UCF and they could end up taking down the American Athletic and playing in a BCS bowl.

There could be some concern with how UCF needed to rally in their last game to beat Memphis, but that was a very difficult spot for the Knights. They were coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Gamecocks and knew they had a bye coming following the Tigers to get ready for the Cardinals. Another key here is that UCF has had more than enough time coming off a bye to prepare for this game. That close loss also sets the Knights up in a favorable system. Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points, who have won between 60% to 80% of their games on the season , that are off a game where they won outright but didn't cover are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET UCF!

5* Blue Chip Sun Belt Tue Night ESPN2 ATS Annihilator

---Louisiana-Lafayette +4.5---

The Ragin' Cajuns are showing some solid value on the road against the Hilltoppers tonight. Louisiana-Lafayette outgained the Hilltoppers 582 to 415 in total yards during last year's 31-27 victory at home. What was impressive about that win was the Ragin' Cajuns were -3 in the turnover department and still found a way to come out with a W. Louisiana-Lafayette imposed their will on the ground with 324 yards on three scores on just 34 attempts, averaging 9.5 yards/carry. Western Kentucky got 238 yards from stud running back Antonio Andrews. The difference between the two running attacks is that the Hilltoppers will rely soly on Andrews, while the Ragin' Cajuns come at you with multiple backs. Four different backs for the Louisiana are averaging over 5.3 yards/carry. Last week Western Kentucky took advantage of a ULM team that was without their starting quarterback and still allowed the Warhawks to rush for 116 yards on 27 attempts (4.3 yards/carry).

Another key thing to take into consideration is the Hilltoppers' first six opponents have all been primarily run-first teams. Their game against ULM last week was the first time an opposing team attempted more than 30 pass attempts. Had the Warhawks not lost their all-time leading passing in Kolton Browning and not had to play the entire game with an experienced signal caller that game could have been a different story. Louisiana-Lafayette's Terrance Broadway has completed 65.6% of his attempts for 1,153 yards with 10 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions. Last year Broadway was an impressive 23 of 33 for 258 yards against the Hilltoppers.

Making this an even stronger play is the fact that road underdogs with an incredible offense (450 or more yards/game) after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their last game are 34-7 (82.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET THE RAGIN' CAJUNS!

5* Small Conference Blue Chip Game of the Year

---Buffalo Bulls -10.5---

Buffalo has flexed it's muscle against similar competition since opening the season with blowout losses on the road against Ohio State and Baylor. While the Bulls needed overtime to hang on for a 26-23 win over Stony Brook, that was a clear letdown spot. They responded in fashion with a 41-12 win over Connecticut and a 42-14 win over Eastern Michigan.

Now they face a Western Michigan team that has absolutely nothing to play for. The Broncos are 0-6 with five of their six losses coming by at least 13 points. The only outlier was a 23-27 home loss to Nicholls State, a game that they were favored to win by 26.5-points. The Broncos rank 110th in total offense (321.4 ypg) and 95th in total defense (440.2 ypg). They have also been awful on special teams and have turned the football over 17 times in six games.

Last year Buffalo finished just 4-8, but one of those wins was a 29-24 win at home over Western Michigan. With the Bulls vastly improved and the Broncos way worse than they were a year ago, Buffalo should have no trouble winning this game by at least two touchdowns.

Western Michigan is also dealing with some serious injury problems this season. Starting quarterback Tyler Van Tubbergen is doubtful. They lost their leading receiver coming back from last year in Jaime Wilson before the season even started. Their only returning offensive linemen was center Terry Davisson and he's out for the year. Linebacker Johnnie Simon, who led the team with a 103 tackles last year is questionable, while six other key defensive players are either doubtful or out for the season. There's just nothing for this team to get excited about. BET BUFFALO!

5* Friday Night Blue Chip Top Play

---Cincinnati Bearcats -20.5---

This is more than just a football game for Cincinnati. It's the Bearcats first home since the tragic death of Ben red-shirt freshman Ben Flick, who died in a car accident following their 14-0 win over Miami(OH). You could see the impact it had on the players as they were upset last week at South Florida 20-26 as a 10.5-point favorite. That loss will only add fuel to the fire to lay everything on the line tonight in front of the home fans. Cincinnati's players are going to do everything they can to get a win tonight and I just don't see what Temple can do to stop them.

The Owls are not only one of the worst offenses in the country, but they are also one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Temple ranks 101st in total offense (342.4 ypg) and 121st in total defense (518 ypg). Cincinnati's offense hasn't looked great in their last two games, but both game on the road where the Bearcats have historically not played that great. The Bearcats have more than enough weapons offensively to pile on the points and defensively they should be able to keep Temple from doing much of anything. Cincinnati comes into this game ranked 4th in total defense, giving up just 251.0 ypg. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bearcats had this spread covered by a touchdown at the half. BET CINCINNATI!

5* Blue Chip High Roller College Football Top Play

---Marshall Thundering Herd -14---

I successfully played against UTSA last week with Houston as a 2-point road favorite, as the Cougars rolled to a 59-28 victory. Now I'm taking a very talented Marshall team, who I believe is better than Houston to deliver a blowout win at home.

This is the perfect spot to back the Thundering Herd. Marshall is going to be extremely motivated coming off back-to-back heartbreaking road losses to Ohio (31-34) and Virginia Tech (21-29 3OT). Adding even more value is that the Thundering Herd are off a bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for what UTSA likes to do on both sides of the ball.

Not only do I feel Marshall is undervalued, but UTSA is simply not that good. The Roadrunners have faced three quality opponents in Oklahoma State, Arizona and Houston and have lost all three by at least 21 points. This team was picked to finish last in the C-USA West for a reason. UTSA is 10-7 dating back to the start of last season, but six of their eight wins last year came against FCS opponents and the other two against FBS opponents who combined to go 2-22. This year their two wins have come against New Mexico and UTEP, who combined are a combined 2-6 with New Mexico's lone win against UTEP and the Miners only victory against New Mexico State (0-5). BET THE THUNDERING HERD!

5* Blue Chip Big Ten Game of the Month

---Penn State Nittany Lions -3---

The first thing that sticks out with this line is that we are getting the Nittany Lions at a field against a team they have never lost to. Penn State is a perfect 16-0 vs Indiana. The Hoosiers are still getting too much respect from their preseason hype that had some thinking they could contend in the Big Ten Leaders. This team has already got beat pretty convincingly at home by Navy and Missouri.

There's no question Indiana has an explosive offense, but it's not like Penn State isn't capable of putting up some points. The Nittany Lions rank 45th in the country with an average 461.3 ypg.

Where this game will be decided is on the defensive side of the football. Penn State ranks 12th in the country in total defense (284.1 ypg), while Indiana is 106th (463.3 ypg). Last year the Nittany Lions handed the Hoosiers a 23-point loss at home. I see no reason why they can't win by 3-points on the road. Indiana's home field is not that strong, which is pretty evident by their losses to Missouri and Navy.

Penn State has the better defense, better running game and a better chance at creating turnovers. BET THE NITTANY LIONS!

5* Blue Chip WKU/ULM High Roller Top Play

---Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -7---

ULM starting quarterback Kolton Browning has been lost for the season and that's spells blowout for Western Kentucky. Browning was without question the Warhawks best player. He tormented the Hilltoppers last year, throwing for 308 yards and 4 touchdowns and rushing for another 69 yards and two scores on the ground. It was already going to be hard for ULM offensively against a stingy Western Kentucky defense and with backup Brayle Brown in as the starter I can't seem them keeping this game close. Brown got in last week against Tulane and threw two interceptions, giving him three in just 28 attempts this season. It's not very often I like laying a touchdown on the road in weekday games, but this is one instance where I think you have to roll the dice. BET WESTERN KENTUCKY!

5* Big Ten Blue Chip High Roller Top Play

---Iowa Hawkeyes -1.2---

This is a very favorable line for the Hawkeyes, as they should have no trouble beating the Golden Gophers on Saturday. Minnesota comes in with a 4-0 record, but haven't played anyone. Their 51-23 win over UNLV and 43-24 victory last week against San Jose State are very misleading. Both of those game were a lot more competitive than the final score would indicate.

Last year Minnesota came into Iowa City with a 4-0 non-conference record and the Hawkeyes won 31-13 as a six-point favorite. I came into the season saying Iowa was one of the most improved teams in the country and they haven't disappointed. Prior to that win over the Golden Gophers last year Iowa had just lost at home to Central Michigan 31-32. This time they come in off a 59-3 beatdown of Western Michigan. Iowa has also proved they can win on the road, going into Ames and beating Iowa State convincingly in a huge in-state rivalry matchup.

In order for Minnesota to have success offensively they have to be able to run the football. They come into this game ranked 118th in the country averaging just 105.3 ypg through the air. Iowa is built to stop the run. They rank 12th in the country, giving up just 91.5 ypg and most importantly are giving up just 3.4 yards/carry. Iowa's defense should dominate this game and get more than enough from their high-powered rushing attack to win and easily cover this spread. BET THE HAWKEYES!

5* Blue Chip High Roller Non-Conference Game of the Month

---Miami Hurricanes -19---

I know this line has dropped down to the Hurricanes -17, but that doesn't bother me one bit. South Florida is simply not a good football team. They lost at home to McNeese State by 32-points in the opener and were just beat by a bad Florida Atlantic team by 18-points at home last time out. I understand the Bulls are coming off a bye, but Miami isn't going to over look this game like some might think.

The Hurricanes are 3-0 and believe they are capable of running the table and potentially playing for a national title. While I don't think that's going to happen, they do and that's all that matters. In order for Miami to get the respect they feel they deserve, they have to lay it on South Florida. The bigger the margin the victory the better.

Last year Miami beat South Florida 40-9 at home and their defense wasn't good. No where close to what it is this season. South Florida looks lost under first year head coach Willie Taggart and are simply out-classed in talent in this one. I look for Miami to be covering this spread by half and just keep adding to it in the second half. BET THE HURRICANES!

5* Thursday Night CFB Game of the Year

---Tulsa Golden Hurricane -3---

These two teams are very familiar with one another after playing twice last year. Iowa State won at home in the opener 38-23, but Tulsa would get their revenge in a 31-17 victory in the Liberty Bowl.

One of the big differences between the first and second meeting was that Iowa State lost one of their two star linebackers in A.J. Klein for the year midway through the season. After rushing for just 160 yards in the first meeting, Tulsa's ground game accounted for 317 yards and four touchdowns in the bowl game. This year the Cyclones lose both Klein and A.J Knott and it's evident. Iowa State has allowed 446 rushing yards in two games, giving up nearly five yards a carry.

Tulsa's ground attack comes in ranked 95th in the country at 120.3 ypg. That's a very misleading stat. The Golden Hurricane have played three good run defenses in Bowling Green Colorado State and Oklahoma. You might be asking yourself Colorado State? The Rams just held Alabama to 66 yards on the ground in Tuscaloosa. I'm confident this is going to be a breakout game for senior running back Trey Watts in 2013. Getting Watts going should also lead to improve play out senior quarterback Cody Green, who has had to shoulder more of the load than he's use to with the running game not as effective.

I know Tulsa has had some struggles defensively, but again that comes down to playing three solid teams. Iowa State's offense is completely out of rhythm and hard to imagine they figure it out on the road in a hostile environment. The Cyclones have won a total of 12 road games of the last 10 years and this is one of the worst teams they have fielded during that stretch. Their 6-point loss at home to Iowa may look good on paper, but they scored two garbage touchdowns in the final five minutes. BET TULSA!

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Blue Chip Game of the Month

---Mississippi State -13.5--

Oddsmakers are simply not giving the Bulldogs enough respect against a Troy team that is way down from last year. The Trojans surprised Mississippi State last year by keeping it close, but they still lost the game by a final of 24-30 and keep it mind they were playing at home.

Troy has just 9 returning starters and simply don't have the talent to hang with the Bulldogs on the road. Mississippi State's defense will be the key. They held an explosive Oklahoma State offense to just 21 points in the opener on a neutral site and just this past weekend nearly upset Auburn on the road, losing in the final seconds.

If Mississippi State wasn't currently 1-2 on the season, this could be an easy game for them to overlook, but that won't be the case. There will be a sense of urgency at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday and I expect the players to respond. It's also important to note that the Bulldogs have a bye next week, so there's no reason for them to look ahead to LSU until they take care of business against a middle of the pack Sun Belt team. BET THE BULLDOGS!

5* Early Bird NCAAF Blue Chip High Roller Top Play

---Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.5---

I was all over the Yellow Jackets last week in 38-14 blowout win on the road against Duke as 8.5-point favorites and I'm shocked Georgia Tech is laying less than a touchdown at home against North Carolina!

It's too early for a lot of people to see, but I strongly believe this one of the best teams head coach Paul Johnson has fielded at Georgia Tech. The offense is rolling behind one of the most underrated offensive lines in the country and the defense has improved tremendously from last year. North Carolina can't stop the run and will not be able to score enough to keep this game close. BET THE YELLOW JACKETS!

5* Friday Night High Roller Blue Chip Special

---Fresno State Bulldogs -4---

This is not the same Boise State team from years past. In fact, it's arguably one of the worst teams the Broncos have fielded under head coach Chris Petersen has fielded. Sure the Broncos are coming off a couple of impressive wins, but those came against two bad teams in Tenn-Martin and Air Force. It's almost as if the Boise faithful have completely forgot about that opening week embarrassment at Washington, where they got smoked 38-6.

Fresno State has one of the elite quarterbacks in college football in David Carr, who would get a lot more attention if he was playing in a BCS conference. The Bulldogs offense is going to be too much for a Boise defense that is lacking talent on defense for the first time in a while. Due to Fresno State's game last week at Colorado being postponed, the Bulldogs have a big advantage here coming in off a week rest.

There's a lot of people that are going to point to a Fresno State defense that allowed 51 points in the opener to Rutgers. The Bulldogs defense isn't great, but I think it's going to play above their potential tonight in front of a rowdy crowd in a nationally televised game. Also, keep in mind Fresno State has 8 starters back to a defense that held Boise State to just 20 points on the road last year. I look for Fresno to jump all over the Broncos early and eventually win this game by double-digits. BET THE BULLDOGS!

5* College Football ATS Revenge Game of the Week

---Maryland Terrapins -6---

The Terrapins have looked like a completely different football team in the third season under Randy Edsall and it's a direct result of having a healthy CJ Brown at quarterback. Brown missed all of last year. He's completed 75.6% of his attempts for 556 yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions.

Prior to coming to Maryland, Edsall spent 11 years at Connecticut. After losing to his old team 21-24 at home last year, revenge will be a huge motivator for the Terrapins. A focused Maryland team should be able to cruise to an easy win against a Connecticut team that was embarrassed in their opener at home 18-33 by Towson. The Huskies were competitive in 2012 because of a rock solid defense, but they lost four players to the NFL from their stop unit and have just five starters back total. Offensively, Connecticut looks as bad as last year's team that average 17.8 ppg. BET THE TERRAPINS!

5* Blue Chip ACC Game of the Year

---Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -8.5---

This is a complete mismatch fella. Georgia Tech is flying under the radar this season. I know everyone is talking about Miami in the ACC Coastal, but don't sleep on the Yellow Jackets returning to the ACC Championship Game.

Georgia Tech has had two full weeks to prepare for the Blue Devils, who are getting to much respect from a 2-0 start that includes wins over NC Central and Memphis. Duke is not as good a team as they were in 2012, when they made their first bowl game since 1994! The Blue Devils lost 24-42 at Georgia Tech last year and don't exactly have a huge home field edge. Even with last year's 5-2 record at home and their lone win their in 2013, Duke is a mere 20-45 at Wallace Wade Stadium.

Last year the Blue Devils managed a whopping 275 yards of total offense against Georgia Tech's defense. They lost their best player in quarterback Sean Renfree. Duke simply isn't going to be able to score enough to keep this game competitive. Georgia Tech is absolutely loaded on the offensive line and will run the football all over the Blue Devils defense. BET GEORGIA TECH!

5* TCU/Texas Tech ESPN Thursday Night Blue Chip Top Play

---TCU Horned Frogs -3---

Texas Tech is getting a lot of respect at home after a couple of blowout wins over SMU and Stephen F. Austin and I'm just not buying the hype at all. To give you an idea of the level of competition the Red Raiders have faced, SMU had to rally in the 4th quarter to beat Montana State and Stephen F. Austin lost at Weber State.

A lot of the attention is being given to Texas Tech quarterback Baker Mayfield, but I strongly believe he's in for a rude awakening against on of the top defenses in the Big 12. TCU is going to take away the Red Raiders short passing game and force Mayfield to beat him deep. I believe that's going to lead to turnovers and quick scores for the Horned Frogs.

TCU is without starting quarterback Casey Pachall, but he was already splitting time with Trevone Boykin, who has looked much improved as a passer and still is a huge threat on his feet. I look for the Horned Frogs to pound the rock behind B.J. Catalon and Waymon James and really wear down the Red Raider defense. BET THE HORNED FROGS!

5* CFB Late Night Hidden Gem Blue Chip Special

---UTEP Miners -6---

After watching New Mexico lose their opener at home against a UTSA team that I thought would be lucky to win 1 game all season, it's clear that the Lobos have no business being less than a touchdown underdog in this game. UTEP went just 3-9 last year, but they return 7 starters on offense and will be adding in Texas A&M transfer quarterback Jameill Showers, who nearly beat out Johnny Manziel for the starting job last year.

The Miners are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country. We benefit here from the fact they didn't play during opening week, which has forced oddsmakers to base this line more off of how they finished last year and not the team they will be sending to the field in 2013.

New Mexico is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs C-USA and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games played in September.

One of the key things you can't overlook here is that UTEP played much better at home last year than on the road. They went just 2-4, but had close losses against very good teams in UCF (24-31) and Rice (24-33) and held their own against a ranked Oklahoma team (7-24). BET THE MINERS!

5* Blue Chip American Athletic Game of the Month

---Houston Cougars -3---

This certainly appears to be a favorable line for the Cougars, who I had ranked much higher than Temple coming into this season. The Owls are likely only giving up 3-points due to that fact they covered the 28-point spread against a highly ranked Notre Dame team. However, if you look closer Temple was very fortunate to only lose that game by 18-points. They allowed the Fighting Irish to rack up 543 yards of total offense, struggling to stop both the run and the pass.

That kind of defensive effort will simply not get the job done against an explosive Houston offense that figures to return to form in 2013 with all kinds of talent back on that side of the ball. Houston not only threw for 255 yards and four touchdowns, but they had another 372 yards and four scores on the ground. Their big play capability is huge against a Temple defense that allowed three Notre Dame touchdowns of 30+ yards.

Temple is clearly going to have more success offensively against Houston than they did against the stacked defense of the Fighting Irish, but I don

5* Blue Chip College Football High Roller Top Play

---Wake Forest Demon Deacons +3---

While I'm not huge on taking the road team in weekday games on national TV, this is one instance where I feel there's simply too much value to pass up. Wake Forest is clearly the better team in this matchup and I look for them to have little trouble covering this spread. I'm taking the 3-points just to be safe, but I'm confident the Demon Deacons will win outright.

Wake Forest had a very pedestrian first game against Presbyterian, but keep in mind head coach Jim Grobe kept things very simple to keep from exposing anything from the Eagles. The Demon Deacons were also without their star wide out Michael Campanaro, who is expected to return this week from a hamstring injury.

Boston College was lucky to win their opener over Villanova. They trailed that game by 7-points at the half and if it wasn't for 4 Villanova turnovers things might have turned out differently.

The Eagles have been a great team to fade early on in the season, as they are just 2-11 ATS in the first half of the year dating back to 2011 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Wake Forest on the other hand has been a great team to back off an ATS loss, as they are 6-2 over their last 8 after failing to cover the previous game. BET THE DEMON DEACONS!

5* Conference USA Blue Chip Game of the Week

---East Carolina -20---

This is not too many points to be laying on the Pirates at home. Sure, East Carolina allowed 460 yards of total offense last week and barely escaped with a 52-38 win over Old Dominion. Don't let that result fool you. Old Dominion is better than people realize and have a big time talent at quarterback in Taylor Heinicke, who threw for over 5,000 yards last year. Florida Atlantic has a horrific situation at quarterback, which is why head coach Carl Pelini was rotating three different players in against Miami. The Owls simply won't be able to put up near enough points to keep this game competitive.

Florida Atlantic was also very fortunate to only lose by 28-points last week. Miami left four touchdowns out there with two dropped passes, a walk in pick six that was dropped and failed conversion on 4th and goal from the 1. You also have to keep in mind the Hurricanes called off the dogs early in that game to prepare for their huge matchup this week against Florida. East Carolina's Shane Carden, completed 45 of 54 attempts for 447 yards and five touchdowns and is going to have his way against the Owls at home.

East Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing record and 6-2 ATS following a game in which they failed to cover the spread. I could easily see the Pirates winning here by 35+! BET EAST CAROLINA!

5* FSU/Pitt College Football ACC Oddsmakers Error

---Florida State Seminoles -10----

The Seminoles aren't getting the respect they deserve due to the loss of starting quarterback EJ Manuel, but I don't see this team to miss a beat with red-shirt freshman Jameis Winston. This kid has all the talent you could ask for in a quarterback and I look for him to come out and make a statement against a Pittsburgh defense that has struggled with explosive offenses. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Winston's name come up in the Heisman discussion. He's that good.

I also look for the Florida State defense to have a clear edge against a depleted Pittsburgh offense that loses their top two rushers from last year and starting quarterback. In the end I just don't see the Panthers scoring enough to keep this game close. BET THE SEMINOLES!

5* Ohio/Louisville High Roller Blue Chip Top Play

---Ohio Bobcats +21---

Louisville

5* Non-Conference Game of the Year

---Iowa Hawkeyes -3---

This is a classic example of one team being overvalued early after a dominant season the previous year and the other team being extremely undervalued after a disappointing finish.

Everyone seems to remember Northern Illinois and the fact that they made a BCS Bowl, but a lot of people forget this is also the same team that lost to Iowa in the opener last year. Northern Illinois gets a lot of talent back on offense. Most notably senior quarterback Jordan Lynch, but they also are in the first year of a new head coach and have just four starters back on defense.

Iowa won just four games all of last year, but you have to remember they were making major changes on both sides of the ball with a new offensive and defense coordinator. The transition wasn't easy, especially for senior quarterback James Vandenberg. Expect to see a lot of improvement on the offensive side of the ball. Iowa has one of the more underrated running backs in the country in Mark Weisman a talented offensive line and are extremely high on sophomore quarterback Jake Rudock. They also feature a very underrated defense that returns seven starters and is loaded at the linebacker positions.

Iowa has lost a grand total of just 16 home games over the last 10 years. Getting them at just -3 is an absolute gift. That's not all. I have a very profitable system that backs the Hawkeyes.

Teams who finished with a winning record that are listed anywhere from +3 to -3 in non-conference games against a team that had a losing record the previous season are 9-34 ATS over the last 10 years. That

5* Friday Night Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Florida Atlantic Owls +32---

The Owls may have won just three games last year, but they were an excellent team to back against the spread. Florida Atlantic went 8-4 ATS overall and were a dominant 6-1 ATS on the road. The fact that they finished with such a horrible overall record, has me thinking there will continue to be value on this team in 2013. There's certainly reason to believe the Owls can cover this large spread against the Hurricanes. Miami largest margin of victory in 2012 was a 31-point home win over South Florida. Their only other victory by more than 20-points was a 28-point victory over Bethune-Cookman.

Florida Atlantic is a solid 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Miami on the other hand is just 1-4 ATS as a home favorite of 13-points or more under head coach Al Golden. That's a 86% Triple-System in favor of the Owls!

While Miami figures to have an explosive offense with 10 starters back to a unit that averaged 31.4 points and 440 yards of total offense, there's still plenty of concern with a defense that allowed 30.5 points and 486 yards per game. While the Hurricanes should be improved on that side of the ball with eight starters back, If Miami simply allows 17 points, they would need to score 50 points to cover this spread.

One of the key things you have to look at when handicapping this game is that Miami could find it hard to stay focused on the task at hand with a huge game against Florida at home on deck. If the Hurricanes jump out to an early lead, there's a good possibility they will sit their starters at some point in the second half, opening up the opportunity for a backdoor cover for the Owls, who you would expect to continue to play hard regardless of the score.

5* Blue Chip NCAAF Opening Night High Roller Top Play

---Minnesota Golden Gophers -13---

While last year's final score against UNLV made it appear there wasn't a whole lot that separates these two teams, you can't ignore the fact that Minnesota out-gained the Rebels 478-275 in total yards. A couple plays here and there and the Golden Gophers could have won that came by double-digits pretty easily. You also have to take into consideration that it's tough for a team from like Minnesota to make the long trip out to Las Vegas. They could have been overlooking UNLV as well, as it was the first meeting between the two schools and the Rebels had won a total of just four games the previous two seasons. There will be no looking past UNLV this time around.

Minnesota fits a very nice system that will have you considering laying the two touchdowns. Teams who lost four of their final five games, who made it to a bowl game and finished the year with a losing record are 23-4 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. On top of that, UNLV is a 27-44 ATS in their last 71 games as a road underdog and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 road games with a total of 49.5 to 52.

With 10 starters back on the offensive side of the ball, there's every reason to believe the Golden Gophers will surpass 500 yards of total offense. Minnesota's only loss was leading receiver A.J. Barker. With all five starters back on the offensive line and the return of junior running back Donnell Kirwood, they likely won't need to throw the ball a whole lot to march up and down the field.

5* BCS National Championship Bowl Game of the Year: Alabama -9

While this may seem like a lot of points to lay, I'm confident Alabama will win this game by double-digits. The Alabama offense has proven they can run the football with success against any defense they go up against. The reason for that is they have arguably the best offensive line in the nation. If the Pittsburgh Panthers can rush for 144 yards on 33 carries (4.4 ypc) against Notre Dame, I don't see how they are going to shut down the Alabama offense.

While the Fighting Irish may slow down the Crimson Tide, the key to this game is that Notre Dame's offense will struggle to get first downs against Alabama. Head coach Nick Saban is one of the best in the business at getting his team prepared for an opponent, and when you give him months to get ready you are in for a long day offensively. Because Notre Dame's offense doesn't have the talent offensively to sustain long drives, the Fighting Irish defense is going to spend a lot of time on the field and I look for them to ware down in the second half.

The other thing I really like about Alabama is that Notre Dame doesn't have much of a passing game to fall back on if the Crimson Tide jump out to an early lead. If the Fighting Irish are forced to throw a lot, it's going to lead to turnovers and great field position. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Alabama ran away with this game much like they did last year against LSU. BET THE CRIMSON TIDE!

5* Cotton Bowl Blue Chip ATS Top Play: Texas A&M -3

Much like last night's matchup between Oregon and Kansas State, I believe their is a big mismatch in talent in tonight's showdown between Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The Aggies have been able to move the ball and hold their own defensively against much better teams than what they will see from the Sooners tonight. Oklahoma couldn't deliver in the big games this season, losing at home to Kansas State 19-24 and at home to Notre Dame 13-30. Texas A&M on the other hand went on the road and beat what many consider to be the best team in the country in Alabama 29-24. The Aggies only two losses came at home against Florida and LSU, two teams that are very strong defensively. Oklahoma simply doesn't have the talent defensively to slow down Johnny Manziel. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Texas A&M win this game by double-digits. BET THE AGGIES!

5* Fiesta Bowl Blue Chip ATS Top Play: Oregon -7.5

I believe the Ducks will have no trouble winning this game by at least two scores. All 11 of Oregon's wins this season came by double-digits and the only one that didn't was a loss to Stanford, who features one of the few defenses that can slow down the Ducks offensive attack. The speed of Oregon and the Wildcats inability to play from behind will be the difference in this matchup. Kansas State's only loss this season came against Baylor by a final of 24-52. Baylor is a very similar to team to Oregon in regards that they are built on a fast-paced offense that can score in a blink of an eye. The Wildcats are a very physical group that likes to over-power their opponent, but that strength won't help them against the explosive playmakers of Oregon. BET THE DUCKS!

5* Outback Bowl Blue Chip Top Play: South Carolina -4.5

South Carolina's defense, mainly their ability to stop the run, will be the difference in this game. When the Wolverines aren't able to have success on the ground they really struggle offensively. Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner is a better passer than Denard Robinson, but he isn't experienced and I can't see him having much success if he has to drop back and throw it repeatedly to keep Michigan's offense on the field. The Wolverines have done a good job of beating teams that don't stack up talent wise, but have not played well against top level opponents. Michigan is just 6-16 ATS over their last 22 games against a team with a winning record and are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs an opponent who averages 8 or more yards/pass attempt. BET THE GAMECOCKS!

5* Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Blue Chip Top Play: Michigan State +3

The Spartans didn't have the season that many expected, but I don't believe this team was as bad as most people think. Michigan State's 3-5 record inside the Big Ten is very misleading. All five of those losses came by 4-points or less and they had a lead in each contest.

I believe the extra practice time is going to really benefit the Spartans, as they will have plenty of time to get their offense into a rhythm. If it wasn't for their offense not being able to produce points, this team would be ranked and playing in a much better bowl. The Michigan State defense is legit. They finished 10th in scoring defense (16.3 ppg) and 4th in total defense (274.5 ypg), despite the fact that they were on the field for the majority of each game. I expect the Spartans to play inspired football, as they will be out to prove they are a much better team than their record indicates. I look for TCU's offense to have a very difficult time moving the football, which should translate into a few turnovers and excellent field position for the Spartans offense.

Michigan State is a solid 8-1 ATS away from home in games where they are playing a team with a winning record over the last two seasons, while TCU is 0-7 ATS away from home in non-conference games over the last three seasons. BET THE SPARTANS!

5* Meineke Car Care Bowl Blue Chip Top Play: Minnesota +13

I don't expect Texas Tech to show up for this game, as they got burned by head coach Tommy Tubberville, who unexpectedly left to take over at Cincinnati. It was a move no one inside the program saw coming and the players were clearly not happy with his decision. Not only did the Red Raiders lose their head coach, offensive coordinator Neal Brown jumped ship to take over the same job at Kentucky. The loss of Tubberville and Neal will have the Red Raiders extremely unprepared for this matchup. Adding even more value is the fact that they are going up against a Minnesota team that went just 2-6 inside the Big Ten. Not exactly the type of a opponent that will have the players taking it upon themselves to make sure they are ready for this game. Minnesota on the other hand will be extremely motivated for this game, as they haven't been to a bowl game since 2009 and are working hard to change the culture under head coach Jerry Kill. BET THE GOLDEN GOPHERS!

5* Military Bowl Blue Chip Top Play: Bowling Green +7.5

Bowling Green is extremely undervalued in this matchup. The Falcons might not have the offensive fire-power of San Jose State, but they have a defense that will allow them to keep this game close if not win outright. Bowling Green finished 7th in the country in total defense, allowing a mere 289.7 ypg. The strength of their stop unit was a secondary that yielded just 173.0 ypg. That's of great importance in this matchup, as the Spartans rely heavily on their ability to throw the ball. San Jose State finished 11th in passing offense (327.5 ypg) while ending 104th in rushing offense (124.2 ypg). BET THE FALCONS!

5* LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY: Central Michigan +6.5

Western Kentucky finished the season with three losses in their final four games and weren't far from ending on a 4-game losing streak, as they managed to beat North Texas by a final of just 25-24 in the season finale. Central Michigan on the other hand needed to win their final three games of the season to become bowl eligible and did so impressively. The Chippewas will be out to make a statement and finish the year with a winning record, while the Hilltoppers could struggle to emotionally get ready for this game. Western Kentucky head coach Jeff Taggart left to take over at South Florida and the school replaced him with Bobby Petrino, a controversial hire to say the least. You have to imagine it's been pretty hard for the Hilltoppers to stay focused on playing Central Michigan. Look for those distractions to cost them, as I believe the Chippewas have an excellent shot at winning this game outright! BET CENTRAL MICHIGAN!

5* Toledo/Utah State Idaho Potato Bowl Blue Chip Top Play: Toledo +10.5

Toledo is much better than they are getting credit for with this line. There's no reason they should be a double-digit dog to Utah State. The Rockets nearly upset Arizona in the season-opener (lost in overtime)and knocked off a ranked Cincinnati squad. I expect them to give the Aggies all the can handle, as I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game outright. Toledo is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season when they are listed as the underdog. BET THE ROCKETS!

5* NAVY/ARMY NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK: Navy -6.5

The Midshipmen come into this game having won six of their last seven games and have looked like a completely different team since Keenan Reynolds took over at quarterback. While Navy had a stretch of games where they covered the spread in four of six games, they come in having lost three straight. That might actually be a good thing for those looking to back the Midshipmen. They are an impressive 41-18 ATS in road games after 1 ore more consecutive losses against the spread.

A lot of people are going to look at last year's game an find themselves taking the points, but it really wasn't all that surprising to see Army keep it close. The Midshipmen had just a 4-7 overall record last year. This year's squad is much better than the one that squeaked out a win against the Black Knights, while Army's roster is not nearly as good as it was a season ago.

While most of the focus will be on these two teams ability to run the football, I think this game could be decided by a few big plays in the passing game. Both teams rank near the bottom of the FBS is passing yards/game, but Navy is averaging 108.6 ypg through air. It might not seem like much, but its only the third time in the last 8 seasons that they have been over the century mark. In each of those two previous seasons where they averaged over 100 yards, they beat the Black Knights easily. They won 31-17 in 2010 and 42-23 in 2005. BET NAVY!

5* BIG TEN TITLE GAME BLOCKBUSTER ATS GAME OF THE MONTH: Wisconsin +3.5

The Badgers ended the regular season with a 21-24 overtime loss at Penn State. It came just one week after Wisconsin lost 14-21 in overtime to Ohio State. It was the third time this season that Wisconsin lost in extra time. The Badgers aren

5* EARLY BIRD OKLAHOMA/TCU ATS ABSOLUTE SMASH: Oklahoma -5.5

The Sooners were able to rally from an 11-point deficit to stun in-state rival Oklahoma State 51-48 in overtime. Oklahoma improved to 8-2 overall and 7-1 inside the Big 12. This may be the only time that Sooners

5* PAC-12 TITLE GAME ATS TOP PLAY: UCLA +9

I was all over Stanford in last week's matchup between these two teams. I simply couldn't see UCLA playing at their full potential coming off that huge win against USC and knowing that if they won they would have to face Oregon in Eugene for a chance to play in a BCS Bowl.

Due to the fact that Stanford won that game by a final score of 35-17, UCLA has been extremely undervalued in in the rematch. The Bruins had a very vanilla game-plan in that first game, which will make it hard for the Cardinal players to prepare for what they are going to see this time around.

Stanford isn't a team that typically blows out their opponent, and we almost always see a closer game the second time two teams play in the same season whether its the NFL or NCAAF. Only four of the Cardinal's 10 wins this season came by more than the number listed.

UCLA is an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. BET THE BRUINS!

5* Stanford/UCLA PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH: Stanford -2

The Cardinal come into this game off one of the biggest upsets of the 2012 season. Stanford went on the road an knocked off No. 2 Oregon 17-14 in overtime as a 18.5-point underdog. With that win the Cardinal took over the top spot in the Pac-12 North, but they still need a win over UCLA to secure a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

The Bruins have already locked up a spot in the title game and really don

5* Texas Tech/Baylor Big 12 Game of the Week: Texas Tech +4

Thanks in large part to the Red Raiders easy non-conference slate, they have already secured a spot in a bowl game with a 7-4 overall record and 4-4 record inside conference play. While Texas Tech enters Saturday

5* Arizona St/Arizona Pac-12 Late Night ATS Moneymaker Top Play: Arizona State +3

The Sun Devils were able to put an end to their four-game losing streak with an easy 46-7 home win over Washington State. With the victory Arizona State improved to 6-5 overall and 4-4 inside the Pac-12, which should have them headed to a bowl game in the first season under head coach Todd Graham.

While you would typically give the edge to the home team in a huge in-state rivalry, the road team has won three straight in this series. During that three game stretch the largest margin of victory is 4-points. When you combine those two factors you can see why the Sun Devils could be a strong play getting a field goal.

Both of these two teams come in with high-powered offenses. The Wildcats come in averaging 37.5 ppg behind an impressive 521.8 total yards of offense. The Sun Devils aren

5* Nebraska/Iowa Big Ten Game of the Month: Nebraska -14.5

The Cornhuskers knocked off Minnesota at home 38-14 for their fifth straight win. Nebraska is now 9-2 overall and 6-1 inside the conference. With a win over Iowa the Cornhuskers will be headed to the Big Ten Championship Game, where they will face off against Wisconsin for the right to play in the Rose Bowl.

Nebraska certainly appears to be playing the Hawkeyes at the right time. Iowa has lost five straight since that impressive overtime win at Michigan State back on Oct. 13. The Hawkeyes have suffered a number of close losses this season, but that has to do more with the level of talent they have played. In their three conference games against teams who currently have a winning record inside the Big Ten, they have been outscored 108-51. The fact that this game is at Kinnick doesn

5* Akron/Toledo MAC Tuesday Night Game of the Month: Akron +19.5

It has been an extremely difficult season for the Zips, who dropped to 1-10 overall and 0-7 inside the MAC with a 14-22 loss at home to Massachusetts. The only win on the season came against a non-FBS opponent in Morgan St (66-6). While the results haven

5* Cal/Oregon State Late Night ATS Moneymaker Top Play: Oregon State -14.5

The Beavers ended up losing 23-27 at Stanford this past weekend for their second loss in their last three games. Oregon State is still 7-2 overall and 5-2 inside the conference. The Beavers are a perfect 4-0 at home this season and will be taking on a depleted Cal team that has not played well on the road. The Golden Bears are just 1-3 away away from home and that lone win came against a bad Washington State squad.

The injuries to the two starting quarterbacks is the key to this game and you have to give the edge to Mannion and the Beavers. Allan Bridgford stepped in and started last week for Cal against Oregon and he didn

5* BIG 12 BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE WEEK: Kansas State -12

The Wildcats improved to 10-0 overall and 7-0 inside the Big 12 with a 23-10 win at TCU this past weekend. Kansas State will be able to secure at least a share of the Big 12 title and a spot in a BCS Bowl with a win over the Bears. While the Wildcats just keep on winning, it seems like no one wants to give this team the respect they deserve. Kansas State was just a 6.5-point favorite in their 13-point win over the Horned Frogs. They are now 8-1 ATS this season are 6-0-1 ATS against their conference rivals.

It certainly seems like Kansas State is undervalued against Baylor. The Bears are a miserable 1-5 inside the Big 12 with their only win coming against Kansas at home. The Wildcats only two games inside the conference where they haven

5* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH: Air Force -22.5

The Falcons come into this game 5-5 overall and 4-2 inside the MWC. With just Hawaii and a road game at Fresno State left on the schedule, Air Force must win one of their final two games to become bowl eligible. Considering how strong Fresno State has looked this season, you would have to expect the Falcons to lay everything on the line Friday to make sure they get to the magic six-win mark.

Air Force certainly appears to have the edge on both sides of the football. The Falcons come into this game 2nd in the country in rushing offense at 335.3 yards/game. They don't figure to have any trouble getting to that mark and should have a good chance of passing it. Hawaii comes in giving up just under 210 ypg on the ground and have already allowed three different teams to rush for over 300 yards, including two who have surpassed the Falcons average of 335.

Both of those games in which the Warriors allowed more than 335 yards on the ground, they got absolutely annihilated on the scoreboard. Nevada rushed for 355 yards in a 69-24 win at Hawaii, while BYU put up 396 yards in a 47-0 blowout win.

While the Falcons haven't been a juggernaut defensively, they should be able to keep the Warriors pathetic excuse of an offense in check, especially considering how important this game is to Air Force. Hawaii has the 112th ranked scoring offense in the country, averaging a mere 19.6 ppg on 295.2 yards of total offense. The Warriors also have been very sloppy with the football. They have 22 turnovers over their last six games with at least three giveaways in each contest.

Speaking of turnovers, the Falcons have really hurt themselves the past couple weeks by giving the ball away. They turned it over 5 times against Army and 4 times against San Diego St. While Air Force lost both of those games by 20 and 17 points, they had the edge in total yards in both of those games. Turnovers shouldn't be a problem against Hawaii. The Warriors have forced 1 or fewer turnovers in 7 of their nine games this season.

For those of you looking for a key trend for Air Force, Hawaii is 2-10 ATS in road games vs excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game since 1992.

5* Toledo/Northern Illinois Blockbuster ATS Smash: Toledo +11

The Rockets had their eight-game winning streak snapped last Tuesday in a surprising 27-34 loss at home to Ball State. Toledo rallied from an early 14-point deficit to take a 27-24 lead in the 4th quarter, but the Cardinals would score the game

5* BIG 12 ATS GAME OF THE MONTH: Oklahoma -21.5

The Sooners returned from their bye week and that surprising home loss against Notre Dame with a 35-20 win over Iowa State. Oklahoma is now 6-2 overall and 4-1 inside the Big 12.

A lot of people are going to look at how Iowa State was able to only lose by 15-points and assume Baylor can do the same. However, the Cyclones have one of the more underrated defenses in the conference. The Bears defense on the other hand is down right awful. Baylor ranks 117th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 39.1 ppg and are 121st in total defense giving up a whopping 527.2 total yards/game. Considering the Sooners put up 63 points on Texas, there

5* PAC-12 Blue Chip Game of the Week: USC -8.5

While the loss to Oregon was painful, it really didn

5* College Football Blue Chip Game of the Year: Tennessee -3

The Volunteers come into this game with a disappointing 4-5 overall record, but not many teams would have a better record given their schedule. Tennessee's five losses have come against the likes of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama and South Carolina. Each one of those teams are currently ranked inside the top 25. The big thing I look at is how close a lot of those games have been. In three of those five games they lost by 10 points or less.

So much attention has been given to how bad the Tennessee defense has played of late, but you can't just look at the numbers. All of those games came against offenses who are averaging over 30 ppg. Missouri is no where close to those teams on the offensive side of ball. The Tigers rank 96th in the country in scoring offense averaging just 22.4 ppg. They have the 98th worst passing offense (194.3 ypg) and the 101st ranked rushing offense (125.0 ypg).

Given that the spread is just 3-points it really doesn't matter how bad the defense plays as long as the offense makes up for it on the other side of the ball. Sure Missouri has played well on defense, but only Florida and Alabama have been able to keep this team under 31 points. The Volunteers put up 44 on Georgia and 35 against South Carolina, who I would argue are much better than what the Tigers have on the defensive side of the ball.

The Missouri secondary comes into this game getting a ton of respect, as they are ranked 15th in the country against the pass, allowing just 185.6 ypg through the air. I'm not buying that at all. Other than Georgia's Aaron Murray, the Tigers haven't played a quarterback anywhere close to what they will see in Tyler Bray. You also can't ignore that they let Connor Shaw of South Carolina complete 21 or 23 attempts for 252 yards!

It's worth mentioning that Tennessee is an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing road record.

5* Bowling Green/Ohio MAC BLOCKBUSTER ATS ANNIHILATOR: Bowling Green +3

The Falcons come into this game having won five straight overall and four consecutive conference games. Most importantly for bettors, Bowling Green has covered the spread in each of those games and are an impressive 6-3 ATS overall in 2012. Both the Falcons and Bobcats come into this game with a 4-1 record in conference play. Kent St currently leads the division at 5-0, but has yet to face off against either Bowling Green or Ohio.

For those of you who haven

5* PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK: UCLA -3.5

The Bruins returned from their bye week with a big time win on the road at Arizona State. UCLA knocked off the Sun Devils 45-43 as a 6.5-point underdog. They improved to 6-2 on the season and 3-2 inside the Pac-12. With a game against USC still looming later on in the season, UCLA actually controls their own destiny in the Pac-12 South. If they can find a way to win out they would be the team representing the South in the Pac-12 title game.

I don

5* PAC-12 BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE MONTH

Not to take anything away from Washington, but the Beavers beat themselves more than anything last week. Oregon State outgained the Huskies 427 to 293 in total yards, but a poor game from starting quarterback Sean Mannion really allowed Washington to stay in the game. . Mannion returned after missing the previous two games against BYU and Utah and threw a season high-four interceptions. I don

5* Pittsburgh/Notre Dame Non-Conference Game of the Month: Notre Dame -16.5

I was pretty shocked when oddsmakers listed Notre Dame as a 10-point underdog last week at Oklahoma and then even more surprised to see the line continue to grow. It certainly had me thinking twice about betting Notre Dame, as I got the feeling the books knew something I didn

5* PAC-12 BLOCKBUSTER ATS SMASH: California -4

Washington is coming off a huge win at home over Oregon State and that certainly has them slightly overrated against California on the road, especially after the public watched the Golden Bears lose at Utah by a final of 27-49. Not only do I think Cal will cover the spread, but I don't think this game will be close at all.

These two team home/away splits are the number one thing you have to look at when betting these teams. The difference in how they play in front of their home fans and on the road is tough to comprehend. Either way it sets up an excellent opportunity to use it to our advantage.

The Huskies are 0-3 on the road this season and all three have been blowouts. All three were decided by 30 points or more. On the other hand, Washington is 4-1 at home with two huge wins over ranked teams in Stanford and Oregon State and they only lost to USC by 10-points.

Cal is just 2-3 at home, but they have been every game and pulled off a huge 43-17 win over UCLA, who I believe is more talented than this Washington Squad. The Golden Bears just 1-3 on the road with the only win coming against a bad Washington State team. I wasn't surprised at all to see them go into Utah and get smacked around last week.

Adding even more value to the home team in this one is being played on Friday night in front of a national audience. If that wasn't enough, Washington is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games! BET THE GOLDEN BEARS!

5* ACC NO DOUBT ATS GAME OF THE MONTH: Va Tech -1.5

Virginia Tech has been less than impressive so far this season, but I will put my trust in Frank Beamer and his staff to have his team ready to go after a bye week. Playing during the week can be difficult for a lot of teams, but Beamer and the Hokies have been able to step up and deliver in the national spotlight as they are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 Thursday games!

The Hokies have also been a great team to back as a small road favorite. They are 10-1 ATS in road games with a spread of 3 or less since 1992 and a perfect 7-0 with a spread of 7 or less over the last three seasons! BET THE HOKIES!

5* BIG TEN BLUE CHIP BOOKIE BEATDOWN: Michigan +2.5

Nebraska is fortunate to be 2-1 inside Big Ten play. They trailed Wisconsin 27-10 in thesecond half before scoring 20 unanswered to win 30-27. The following game they were embarrassed at Ohio State 38-63 and then this past weekend they trailed Northwestern 28-16 in the 4th quarter.

The Wolverines come in with a 5-2 record and their only two losses have come against a couple of teams that are ranked inside the Top 5 in Alabama (No. 1) and Notre Dame (No. 5). Both of those teams feature outstanding defenses that are built to stop the run. There's no denying that this Michigan team has struggled when they can't get the ground game going.

Nebraska is not only not ranked they feature a pretty poor run defense. In fact, the Cornhuskers have the 87th worst run defense in the country, giving up 187.9 ypg. Last year Michigan ran for 238 yards in an easy 45-17 win at home over Nebraska last year. I expect a closer game with this one being played in Lincoln, but the end result will still be a Michigan win. BET THE WOLVERINES!

5* BLUE CHIP PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR: USC -6.5

With last weeks blowout win over Colorado the Trojans have now won four straight since that upset loss to Stanford. This is one of those scenarios where I think the public is on the right side. I think USC not only wins this game by a touchdown, but I like their chances of winning by 2-3 scores.

The reason Stanford was able to beat USC is because their defense was able to keep the Trojan offense in check. I'm confident Arizona's defense will fail to the same. The Wildcats have the 104th ranked defense in the country, giving up 464.7 total yards per game. They are 76th against the run (173.6 ypg), but must importantly for this game they are 112th against the pass (291.1 ypg). USC has one of the top quarterback prospects in Matt Barkley and two NFL-ready wide outs in Robert Woods and Marqise Lee. This trio is going to be in line for a huge game.

While Arizona has a pretty good offense of their own, I can't seem them keeping up over the course of the entire game. USC is 30th in the country in total defense so they are going to get some stops. The Trojan defense has forced two or more turnovers in every game this year. If they are able to keep that streak alive I believe it will be what pushes this from a 7-10 point game to a 17-21 point blowout. BET THE TROJANS!

5* Big East Game of the Year: Cincinnati +4

It's going to be hard for the public to back Cincinnati after watching them lose outright to Toledo last week, which put an end to their perfect 5-0 start. Not only do I think the Bearcats are showing a ton a value at +4, but I really like their chances of winning this game outright.

That Toledo game was a very difficult spot for Cincinnati, whose primary focus is on winning the Big East and playing in a BCS Bowl. There's a very good chance they were looking ahead to this game, as they know a win over Louisville greatly increases their chances of reaching those goals. Even though it was an instate rivalry game, I strongly believe Toledo was the more motivated team in that one.

Louisville is a perfect 7-0 on the season, but they have had their work cut out for them in each of their last five games. Four of those games were decided by a touchdown or less and their biggest win was a 10-point victory over Pitt, who Cincinnati crushed 34-10 earlier this season. The Cardinal are duo for a loss, and Cincinnati is clearly one of their toughest opponents so far this season.

Adding even more value to this play is the fact that Cincinnati beat Louisville 25-16 a year ago. Plus, the Bearcats are 33-12 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992! BET CINCINNATI!

5* SUN BELT NO DOUBT ATS SMASH: Louisiana-Lafayette -4

Even thought I got burnt by LA-Lafayette last week on Tuesday against North Texas, I believe they are showing a ton of value as a small home favorite. The Ragin' Cajuns have been a great team to back coming off a loss. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss!

I'm not buying into Lafayette's loss to North Texas that much. They were without their top running back due to an illness and lost two of their key playmakers at wide receiver. As a result the Ragin' Cajuns had to settle for a lot of long passes as they weren't able to establish the ground game. They finished with just 106 yards on 19 attempts and 84 of those yards came from their starting quarterback Terrence Broadway.

I fully expect Lafayette to be able to run the ball out of the backfield against a suspect Arkansas St run defense. While the Red Wolves defensive numbers against the run are a bit inflated from having to play two games against Oregon and Nebraska, they still allowed Western Kentucky to run for 243 yards, Florida International put up 188, and South Alabama managed 132.

Both of these two teams have played FIU. Arkansas State beat the Golden Panthers 34-20, while Lafayette won 48-20. If you look closer, you will see that the Red Wolves went into the 4th quarter leading just 27-13, while Arkansas State built a 41-14 lead early in the 3rd quarter.

Adding to my belief that the Ragin' Cajuns are the better team and should win this game by double-digits, is the fact that Arkansas State is just 3-20 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. The average score in those games have been Red Wolves 17 - Opponent 33! BET THE RAGIN CAJUN'S!

5* South Carolina/Florida SEC Blockbuster ATS Domination: Florida -3.5

Even though South Carolina suffered their first loss of the season last week, they still managed to cover the spread, which in turn will keep the public at their back. Florida is gaining a lot of public attention, but I still don't think the majority people outside of Gainesville understand just how good this team really is.

The other huge factor that you can't overlook in this game is the brutal stretch of games the Gamecocks have had to deal with. It's hard enough for a team to get psyched up in back-to-back games, and extremely difficult to do it three straight weeks. The Gamecocks played a huge rivalry game at home against Georgia then went on the road to face LSU and now have to go play at Florida. I'll take my chances on the more talented home team every time.

This line is set just to try and make sure everyone doesn't load up on Florida and the oddsmakers don't get crushed.

Florida has the key edge on both sides of the ball. They have a defense that can shut South Carolina down and an offense that can impose their will in the running game. LSU did just that last week, rushing for 258 yards against the Gamecocks. Florida will win this game by at least a touchdown and possibly even double-digits! BET THE GATORS!

5* Va Tech/Clemson ACC BLOCKBUSTER ATS SMASH: Virginia Tech +8

A lot of people are going to look back at how Clemson dominated both games against Virginia Tech last season and jump all over the Tigers in this spot, but the smart money will be on the Hokies.

Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer notoriously gets his team to improve as the season goes on. Just look at the improvement the Hokies made in the two games they played against Clemson last year. The Tigers won 38-10 in the first meeting behind 457 yards of total offense. The second time around Clemson scored just 23 points on 323 yards.

I have a pretty good feeling Virginia Tech has had this game circled since the schedule was released. This team comes in riding a wave of momentum. After falling behind Duke 0-20, the Hokies scored 41 unanswered with a dominant effort on both sides of the ball.

Virginia Tech's offense has been slow to come around this season, but I believe they have found their answer at running back. Freshman J.C. Coleman needed just 13 carries to rack up 183 yards and two touchdowns. He brings an explosive aspect this offense has been missing. His touchdown runs came from 45 and 86 yards.

There's no denying Clemson has some big time weapons on the offensive side of the ball, but the defense is still not very good. I think Virginia Tech is going to be the more focused and energized team in this one. They might not have what it takes to win the game, but they should have no problem staying within a touchdown. BET VIRGINIA TECH!

5* Conference USA Game of the Month: SMU +5

It's not surprising to see the public jump all over Houston after seeing SMU lost at Tulane 26-27 as a 19-point underdog. My money is on the home dog in this fight, as I strongly believe SMU has an excellent chance of winning this game outright!

The Mustangs are better than the team that showed up to play against Tulane, and there's a good chance they were looking ahead to this week's game. They came out extremely flat in the first half (trailed 6-20), and I'm guessing head coach June Jones let them hear about it at halftime. SMU scored 20 unanswered to take a 26-20 lead before allowing a touchdown in the final seconds of regulation.

SMU has played much better at home, where they are 2-1 with their only loss coming to then NO. 15 TCU by a final score of 16-24. SMU turned the ball over six times in that game, yet still only lost by 8-points.

Houston on the other hand has primarily played at home this year, and lets not forget we are talking about a team that lost to Texas St on their home field 13-30, which is arguably worse than losing to Tulane. This will be just the second true road game of the season for the Cougars.

Neither team has been all that impressive on the defensive side of the ball. Houston is 103rd in the country and SMU is 71st. The big difference is the Cougars are horrible against both the run and the pass, while SMU really only struggles against the pass. I look for the Mustangs to actually have an easier time offensively than Houston. BET SMU!

5* TUESDAY NIGHT SUN BELT ATS KNOCKOUT: Louisiana-Lafayette -4

While I usually like to look for home dogs in weekday televised games, I can't pass up on the Ragin' Cajuns in this spot. Prior to the season I picked LA-Lafayette to win the Sun Belt. While I think Western Kentucky and ULM are right there with the Ragin' Cajuns, I am still confident they will go on the road and handle their business against the Mean Green.

North Texas is well coached under Dan McCarney, but they simply don't have the talent offensively to keep up. LA-Lafayette is going to run a lot of spread formations with sophomore quarterback Terrance Broadway, which will set up a lot of running lanes for the Ragin' Cajuns. That is where I see the difference in this game. LA-Lafayette comes in averaging 190.4 ypg on the ground and will be going up against a North Texas defense that is weak up front, allowing 176.5 rushing yards per game. This game might be close early, but I expect LA-Lafayette to end up pulling away for a double-digit win. BET THE RAGIN' CAJUNS!

5* MAC BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE MONTH: Toledo -16.5

Complete mismatch in talent in this one. Toledo has completely dominated this series for the last five years. They are 5-0 during that stretch with all five wins coming by at least 24 points.

The last two meetings have been especially bad for Eastern Michigan. They were beat at home 42-7 in 2010 and last year got thumped 54-16 at Toledo.

Based off what I have seen from these two teams so far this season, I'm confident the Rockets will win by at least three scores on the road.

Toledo comes in averaging 445 yards of total offense/game. Eastern Michigan hasn't been able to slow down anyone. They have no talent on the front 7, which is why they are giving up a ridiculous 305.4 ypg on the ground. The Rockets are going to score at will in this game and I just don't see a Eastern Michigan offense that is ranked 122nd in the nation being able to keep up. BET TOLEDO!

5* OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TECH BIG 12 BOOKIE BEATDOWN: Oklahoma -4.5

This is a huge revenge spot for Oklahoma. Texas Tech came into Norman last year and upset the No. 3 undefeated Sooners 41-38 as a 28-point underdog. Oklahoma is going to be extremely motivated to return the favor and spoil the Red Raiders perfect record in 2012.

Not to take anything away from Texas Tech, who is a very solid team, they are extremely overrated right now. They best win they have had so far is a 24-13 win at Iowa State. Their three other wins have come against Northwestern St, Texas State and New Mexico! That's cupcake city! I expect to see the Red Raiders look more like the team that finished last year with five straight losses.

Two big keys to liking Oklahoma on top of the revenge spot. The Sooners are coming into this game off a bye week and a loss to Kansas State. The Sooners are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss! BET OKLAHOMA!

5* NORTHWESTERN/PENN STATE BIG TEN BLOCKBUSTER TOP PLAY: Penn State -2.5

This is a classic case where you have to look past the records and focus more on how the two teams matchup and who they have played. I'm not buying the hype surrounding the newly ranked Northwestern Wildcats. Their undefeated season will come to an end this Saturday at the hands of Penn State. The Nittany Lions are playing some inspired football under new head coach Bill O'Brien.

After losing the first their first two games, they have now won three straight, including an impressive blowout win at Illinois last week. The most important thing is they keep getting better with each week.

The big key in this game is the Nittany Lions offense should have no trouble moving up and down the field on a bad Northwestern defense, while Penn State should be able to slow down the Northwestern offensive attack. BET PENN STATE!

5* BIG EAST NO DOUBT ATS SMASH: Pittsburgh +1.5

Even with the heavy line move, my money is on Pittsburgh to bring home a win against the Cuse tonight. The Panthers have won won seven straight by an average of 16 ppg, including a 33-20 victory last year.

Syracuse is certainly going to come out with a lot of energy early, but I don't see that lasting for long. The last time Pitt traveled to Syracuse they put a 45-14 beating on the Orange.

The key in this one is Syracuse's inability to stop the run. They gave up 258 yards on the ground to USC and 217 against Stony Brook. The Panthers feature two dynamic running backs in Ray Graham and Rushel Shell, who have played a huge role in the team rushing for 483 yards over their last two games.

Ryan Nassib and the Syracuse passing attack isn't something to get worried about. They are going to make some big plays, but will not be able to sustain it for the entire game. Pittsburgh is actually 10-2 ATSvs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons and a perfect 7-0 ATS vs good offensive teams - averaging > 425 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. BET PITTSBURGH!

5* SUN BELT GAME OF THE YEAR: FIU +1

This is not the same Arkansas State team that went a perfect 8-0 in Sun Belt play a season ago. We have already witnessed that, as they just lost at home to Western Kentucky 13-26 in their last game. My money is on the Golden Panthers to add to the Red Wolves struggles and bring home a big win Thursday night.

I'm confident we will see FIU's best defensive performance of the season tonight. The Golden Panthers have not lived up to their potential on this side of the ball in 2012. While they gave up 48 points on the road to Louisiana-Lafayette (who I picked to win Sun Belt) last week, in their last home game they held Louisville to just 323 yards of total offense.

The Red Wolves have put up a lot of yards offensively, but it hasn't exactly translated to a lot of touchdowns. They managed to score just 33 points on 619 yards of total offense against a very bad Memphis defense.

The FIU defense has been very opportunistic, forcing at least two turnovers in four of their five games. Arkansas State has had trouble holding on to the ball, with 9 turnovers in five games.

The key to this game is that FIU will be able to move the ball offensively against one of the worst run defenses in the country. Arkansas State is 106th in the country, giving up 224.8 rushing yards/game.

Arkansas State will be returning to the road after a couple of games at home, which sets up a very favorable situation. The Red Wolves are just 3-12 ATS after a 2 game home stand since 1992, losing by an average score of 38-17! Another thing in our favor is the fact that Arkansas State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played on Thursday. BET THE GOLDEN PANTHERS!

5* LATE NIGHT MONEYMAKER TOP PLAY: Oregon St +3

For whatever reason, the Beavers are not getting the credit they deserve from oddsmakers, but that's just fine with me. Oregon State has opened up the season with back-to-back wins over Top 25 opponents. They first knocked off Wisconsin at home 10-7 and just this past week went on the road and put an end to UCLA undefeated start with an impressive 27-20 win.

I strongly believe Arizona was exposed last week in their 0-49 loss at Oregon. All the hype surrounding their offense was put to rest, and now they face a defense who is just as good as what they saw against Oregon.

This is also a prime letdown spot for the Wildcats, who invested so much emotion and energy preparing for that highly anticipated showdown against the Ducks. Whatever confidence this team had has been lost and it won't be easy to get back. Not only do they come off a huge game against Oregon, but it's going to be hard for them to not look ahead to their big game at Stanford next week.

Whenever you see a small line on Oregon St whether their favored or the underdog, you have to jump on the Beavers. They are a PERFECT 7-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they line is anywhere from +3 to -3. BET THE BEAVERS!

5* Texas/Oklahoma St BIG 12 BLOCKBUSTER TOP PLAY: Texas -2.5

I'm not buying this Oklahoma State team at all right now. Coming into the season I thought Texas was going to be a lot better than they have been over the last two years, and so far they have exceed my expectations.

Texas has completely dominated each of their first three opponent, while Oklahoma State has a couple of easy wins over Savannah St and Louisiana-Lafayette and a 38-59 loss to Arizona, who was just embarrassed by Oregon this past weekend.

The key here is Oklahoma State hasn't played a single team that has much of anything to speak of on the defensive side of the ball. That will change on Saturday, as the Longhorns come in allowing just 158.3 ypg on the ground and 180.0 ypg through the air.

While I expect the Texas defense to give the Cowboys offense all kinds of trouble, the Longhorns 16th ranked offense should have their way with Oklahoma State defense. Texas is going to run the ball right down the throats of the Cowboys front seven. Not only do I think Texas wins and covers the spread, but I think this game is going to be in the bag by halftime! BET THE LONGHORNS!

5* BLUE CHIP ACC GAME OF THE MONTH: Duke +3

This may seem like a very favorable spread for Wake Forest, considering how bad Duke has been over the years, but this is one of the best teams head coach David Cutcliffe has fielded since taking over the program in 2008.

Duke still has a ways to go on the defensive side of the ball, but they feature a very potent offense that I think the Demon Deacons will fail to keep up with. Duke comes in averaging 37.7 ppg behind 428 total yards/game.

The Blue Devils only loss this season is a 13-50 beating on the road at the hands of Stanford, but a lot of people fail to realize that Duke actually outgained the Cardinal in total yards.

This may not seem like a game that Duke would be all that excited to get up for, but I believe it is. The Blue Devils have lost 12 straight to Wake Forest, but each of the last six have been decided by 9 points or less, including a heartbreaking 23-24 loss at home last year.

While this is one of the better teams Duke has fielded in years, Wake Forest is in the midst of a major rebuilding season with just 11 starters back. Not only do I think Duke covers the spread, I wouldn't be surprised if they won by double-digits! BET THE BLUE DEVILS!

5* Hawaii/BYU WEEKNIGHT ATS MASSACRE: BYU -26.5

It hasn't been pretty for BYU on the offensive side of the ball in their last two games against Utah and Boise St, but those are two very underrated defenses that really put a lot of pressure on quarterback Riley Nelson. Both of those games were played on the road in hostile environments.

BYU is going to be extremely motivated to come out in front of their home crowd and put an end to their two-game losing streak. Some might hesitate to lay the points with Nelson not expected to play tonight, but I was really impressed with backup Taysom Hill. He provided the Cougars their only scoring drive against Boise State.

Hill does not have the same talent throwing the ball as Nelson, but he is a dangerous runner out of the backfield. Hawaii struggled at home last week against Nevada's predominantly rushing attack, as they allowed 355 yards and seven touchdowns. I look BYU to rack up a bunch of big plays and finish off drives with touchdowns!

This game fits into a couple of key trends that relate very strongly to each other. BYU is 6-0 ATS after allowing 125 yards or less rushing in three straight games over the last three seasons. That goes hand and hand with the fact that home teams are allowing 125 or less rushing yards in three straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in their last game is an impressive 50-22 ATS over the last 10 seasons! BET THE COUGARS!

5* Kansas State/Oklahoma Top Play: Oklahoma -14

There's a lot of people jumping on Kansas State and taking the 14-points in the game, but I think the Sooners are going to win this game and I don't think think it will be close.

We find ourselves in a very similar situation to when these two teams played a year ago. Oklahoma was a 13-point favorite at Kansas State and a lot of people took the points. Oklahoma didn't just cover the spread, they won that game 58-17.

In the win over the Wildcats, Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones threw for a school record 505 yards. Kansas State's secondary hasn't exactly looked like it has made a ton of improvements. They are currently ranked 73rd in the country, giving up 251 ypg through the air and that's without facing a single conference opponent.

While Jones picked apart the Wildcats secondary, Oklahoma defense completely shutdown Kansas State quarterback Colin Klein's ability to throw the ball. Klein was just 8 of 16 for 58 yards. Kansas State as a team had just 240 yards (outgained by 450 yards).

This is simply a very favorable matchup for Oklahoma. The Sooners will be out to make a statement at home and I expect them to do just that. BET OKLAHOMA!

5* Non-Conference ATS Blockbuster Game of the Month: South Florida -10

I'm not surprised at all to see South Florida undervalued this week against Ball St. There were a lot of people, including myself, who got burnt on the Bulls last Thursday when they lost 13-23 at home to Rutgers as a 8-point favorite. It all sets up for a golden opportunity to get back our money and then some on South Florida this Saturday.

South Florida's offense really struggled to get anything going against a very stingy Scarlet Knights defense, but that won't be a problem against Ball St. The Cardinals feature one of the worst defenses in the country. They come in allowing 156.3 ypg on the ground and a ridiculous 327.0 ypg through the air.

When a defense is giving up that many yards in the passing game, it usually means the other team is racking up a lot of big plays. South Florida quarterback B.J. Daniels was just 15 of 32 for 242 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. In his previous two games he had 588 yards with six touchdowns to just one pick.

South Florida doesn't have a great defense by any means, but they aren't going to let Ball St march up and down the field on a consistent basis. What this game comes down to is Ball St will not be able to match what their defense gives up on the other side of the ball. I look for a very similar score to when Ball St played Clemson earlier this season, where they lost 52-27 (Clemson led 45-10 at the half). BET SOUTH FLORIDA!

5* Baylor/ULM ATS ABSOLUTE SMASH: ULM +7.5

This may seem like a small spread for Baylor (Big 12) to be laying against Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt), but the Warhawks have already proved they can hang with the BCS schools. ULM first upset No. 8 Arkansas 34-31 in overtime at home and then went on the road and just about beat Auburn, losing 28-31 in overtime.

I'm not buying the talk about how this team can't get up for a third straight week. I believe this game is bigger than both the first two. This is the only football game scheduled for Friday. ULM knows that the entire country is watching this game. No one is going to care if ULM goes on to win the Sun Belt Conference, but they will remember them if they beat Baylor.

You also have to take into consideration that if oddsmakers truly thought that Baylor was going to win this game in a blowout, they would have set the line much higher.

Baylor has certainly looked impressive in their first two games of the season, beating 59-24 and Sam Houston State 48-23, but that really isn't saying much. In my opinion, the Bears are extremely overrated right now. You can't tell me that this team is anywhere close to as good as they were a year ago with how well RGIII has looked in his first two games in the NFL.

Baylor is still nothing to write home about defensively, and I think they are going to have a very hard time stopping the ULM offensive attack. I look for junior quarterback Kolton Browning to have another monster performance. In two games vs SEC defenses, he has completed 62% of his attempts for 649 yards with six touchdowns to just one interception.

ULM also has a very solid defense, led by a talented front that really caused a lot of problems for both Arkansas and Auburn. They put a beating on Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson and had him out of the game by the first half. I look for the defense to feed off the home crowd and really make life miserable for Baylor quarterback Nick Florence, who has faced two cupcake defenses in his first two starts.

I went ahead and took the points considering we are getting over a touchdown, but I personally think ULM can win this game and possibly win this game in convincing fashion. Take the points! BET BAYLOR!

5* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH: Buffalo -3

This is not your 3-9 Buffalo team from a season ago, the Bulls are much-improved in the third year under Jeff Quinn. There's no way I'm passing up on them at home as a small 3-point favorites against a Kent State.

The Bulls feature a pretty potent offense behind quarterback Alex Zordich and junior running back Brandon Oliver. I look for Buffalo to make a lot of big plays offensively and I wouldn't be surprised if they put this game away early. BET THE BULLS!

5* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR: Tennessee -2.5

I am extremely high on Tennessee and after watching the Gators struggle to beat Texas A&M on the road last week, there is no way I'm passing up on the Volunteers at less than a field goal. The fact that Florida was able to pull out the win, only helped us with the line. If the line moves up to 3, I strongly recommend buying it back down to 2.5.

I was really impressed with the Volunteers 35-21 win over NC State in their opener. That final was a bit misleading. Tennessee fumbled at the goal line on a play where it looked like Bray got the ball over into the endzone before it came loose.

Florida has one of the best defenses in the country, but their biggest strength is stopping the run. They allowed a first-year starting from Texas A&M complete 23 of 30 attempts. I look for Bray to pick apart the Florida secondary and rack up a ton of big plays in the passing game.

Defensively I like the matchup for Tennessee. Florida's quarterback play has been mediocre at best. That means the Volunteers can focus all their attention on stopping the run.

You can't overlook the fact that this game is being played in Tennessee and it's the Volunteers first conference game of the season. Tennessee went just 1-7 in the SEC a season ago, the motivation level will be at an all-time high and the crowd figures to give the Volunteers defense a huge lift the entire game.

The other key to this game is the schedule. While Florida is coming off a conference road game at Texas A&M, the Volunteers had a cupcake game against Georgia State. I believe the focus been on beating the Gators ever since their win over NC State. With Akron on the schedule next for Tennessee, they will be able to lay everything on the line to get this win and I expect them to do just that.

I expect Florida's defense to keep them in the game, but in the end I have Tennessee winning by at least a touchdown. BET THE VOLUNTEERS!

5* Washington State/UNLV WEEKNIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH: Washington St -10.5

It certainly hasn't been the start Washington State fans were expecting under first year head coach Mike Leach. The Cougars were blown out at BYU 30-6 and barely edged out Eastern Washington 24-20 last week.

That certainly has people backing off the Cougars. This team is only going to get better as the season goes on and they get a better understanding of the new schemes.

As bad as the Cougars have played, you can't overlook who they are playing. UNLV has already lost two games at home against a couple of pretty bad team in Minnesota and Northern Arizona. While they lost in triple-overtime to Minnesota, that game should have been a blowout. The Gophers outgained the Rebels by over 200 yards of total offense (478-275)!

It's also worth noting that Washington State crushed UNLV 59-7 at home last season. A lot of people are probably going to avoid taking the Cougars because starting quarterback Jeff Tuel is questionable with a knee injury. That isn't as big of an injury as it might seem. Washington State played most of last season without Tuel. Sophomore backup Connor Holliday is more than capable of moving the chains against a very bad UNLV defense. BET WASHINGTON STATE!

5* NON-CONFERENCE ATS GAME OF THE YEAR: Indiana -14

I faded UMass in their opening week loss to Connecticut, where they loss 0-37 as a 21-point underdog. This week they are getting just 14-points at home against Indiana. This is without question one of my favorite plays of the year, as I have Indiana winning this game by at least 4 touchdowns.

Indiana is a less talented team overall than Connecticut, but the matchup in this game clearly favors the Hoosiers. Indiana has a much more explosive offense than UConn, and I expect them to score at will in this game.

Indiana got their season kicked off with a 24-17 win at home against a solid Indiana State team. The Hoosiers are coming off a 1-11 season in 2011. This team rarely gets the opportunity to embarrass their opponent, which is exactly what they should do on Saturday.

What kills the Hoosiers is their defense, which allowed 37.3 ppg and 459 yards of total offense a season ago. With that said, they should be able to keep the Minutemen from doing much of anything offensively. UMass totaled just 59 yards of total offense against the Huskies. 59 YARDS! It doesn't get much worse than that.

History is also in our favor here, as the Hoosiers are 6-2 over their last 8 road openers and a dominant 35-7-2 against the MAC. This is UMass first season in the MAC and they will be lucky to win a single conference game. BET INDIANA!

5* FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ATS KNOCKOUT: Utah -7

Utah had a down season in 2011, finishing with just an 8-5 record. It might not seem that bad, but this team had won at least 10 games each of the previous 3 seasons. The move to the PAC-12 and having just 12 starters coming back certainly played a big role in that.

This year the Utes have 16 starters coming back and I believe they are one of the more underrated teams in the country right now. Utah opened up their season with an impressive 41-0 win over Northern Colorado. They were dominant on both sides of the ball. They outgained Northern Colorado 414-114 (+300 in total yards)!

Utah St is headed in the right direction under head coach Gary Anderson, but are no match for the Utes. Utah State has lost 12 straight against Utah by an average of 24 points! I don't see any way they keep this game within double-digits. BET UTAH!

5* Big East Blockbuster Top Play: Pittsburgh +4.5

Everyone is jumping all over Cincinnati after watching Pittsburgh lose at home to Youngstown St last Saturday, but I really like the Panthers chances of winning this game straight up. Which makes getting 4.5-points a gift.

Pittsburgh had six players suspended just prior to kickoff last week, including starting defensive tackle Tyrone Ezell and freshman running back Rushell Shell. For those that don't know, Shell was one of the top rated freshman running backs in the country. Having Shell to team up with star running back Ray Graham is going to really make life miserable for the Cincinnati defense.

Speaking of the Cincinnati defense, they have to replace their two best players on that side of the ball in 3rd Team All-American DT Derek Wolf and leading tackler, 1st Team All-Big East, linebacker J.K Schaffer.

I also have some big concerns with the Bearcats offense, which has to replace quarterback Zach Collaros (3rd all-time school history passing yards) and starting running back Isaiah Pead (3rd all-time school history rushing yards).

In Cincinnati's 26-23 win over Pittsburgh last year, Collaros threw for 214 yards and rushed for another 20 yards and two touchdowns, while Pead piled on 118 yards on 22 attempts. It's also worth noting that the Panthers rushed for 179 yards in that game without Graham in the lineup.

This is going to be a very motivated Pittsburgh team after that horrible loss last week. When the Panthers lose it usually means they are money the following week against the spread. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. loss. Not to mention they are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 conference games!

5* CFB MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND BEST BET: Baylor -8.5

Baylor is simply coming into this game undervalued after losing Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III. I expect Baylor to win this game in a blowout. SMU also lost a lot of talent from last year. Baylor is 9-0 vs SMU with an average win by 29 points! BET THE BEARS!

5* Blockbuster Top Play: Penn State -6.5

A lot of people are down on Penn State coming into the 2012 season, but I think they are going to surprise people with how well they play this year. The loss of Joe Paterno is big, but not as big as some would think. I am extremely high on new head coach Bill O'Brien.

I look for O'Brien to turn around an offense that averaged just 19.3 ppg in 2011, even with the loss of top running back Silas Redd. A lot of people seem to forget that Penn State never had to rebuild, they just simply reloaded. They lost some recruits, but there is still a ton of talent on this roster. The scholarship sanctions received aren't going to have a big impact on this year's team.

Ohio is getting a lot of respect after finishing 10-4 last year, but you have to remember that they only played one game against a team from the BCS. In that matchup they were beat by Rutgers 38-26.

The Bobcats do bring back a talented quarterback in Tyler Tettleton, but he loses all of his top weapons from last year. Ohio has to replace leading rusher Donte Harden (986 yards) and their top two receivers in LaVon Brazil (74 catches, 1146 yards, 11 TDs) and Riley Dunlop (43 catches, 586 yards, 6 TDs).

Another big key to this matchup is I believe the Penn State defense will keep Tettleton from moving the chains with his legs. In turn, it should make the Bobcats offense one-dimensional.

The fact that Penn State is getting so much hate from everyone around the country, I believe it has allowed the oddsmakers to set this line much lower than it should be. BET THE NITTANY LIONS!

5* CFB OPENING WEEK GAME OF THE YEAR: Tennessee -3

I believe the Volunteers are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country, and this is without question one of my strongest plays early in the 2012 season.

Tennessee finished up the 2011 season with a disappointing 5-7 overall record, but injuries to key players kept this team from reaching their full potential, which in turn has them extremely undervalued in their opener on the road. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Tennessee was in contention for the SEC East title late in the year. Sure they are going to have to stay healthy, but that's not an issue coming into the first game.

The Volunteers were hurt by the loss of starting wide out Da'Rick Rogers, but I don't think it kills them. They have one of the more talented quarterbacks in the country in Tyler Bray and a big time playmaker at receiver in Justin Hunter. Tennessee has 19 starters coming back this year, including 9 to a defense that was pretty good in 2011,especially considering they played the entire year without star linebacker Herman Lathers, who is back healthy.

NC State is a solid football team, but they simply don't matchup well with the Volunteers. Even if NC State comes out fired up and keeps this game close, I still like Tennessee to win by more than a field goal. If it goes as planned, I think the Volunteers will win by at least two touchdowns. BET TENNESSEE!

5* CFB Opening Night Blockbuster Top Play: Connecticut -24

I'm not worried about laying this many points on Connecticut against a very weak team in Massachusetts. I strongly believe the Huskies are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country.

Connecticut came into last season off an improbable Big East title that landed them in a BCS Bowl. They wouldn't come close to matching 2010's success, as the Huskies went just 5-7 in the first year under head coach Paul Pasqualoni.

With a much better understanding of the new systems that were installed last year, and I expect them to benefit from getting 8 starters back on each side of the ball. The Huskies have also made a huge upgrade at quarterback, bringing in one of the top junior college talents in Chandler Whitmer, who will take over the starting job right away.

A lot of people laughed at the fact that Connecticut made it to a BCS bowl, and even less respect was given to this team after their poor showing in 2011. I look for the Huskies to come out extremely motivated in from of their home crowd Thursday night.

You also have to take into consideration the talent they are playing. UMASS is making the huge jump up in competition, as they go officially join the FBS this season. To no surprise, the Minutemen are pegged to finish at the bottom of the MAC, which gives you a pretty good idea of just how bad they are going to be.

Massachusetts played ONE FBS opponent last year, and they got clobbered 45-17 by a Boston College team that finished the year with a 4-8 record (first time in 12 years the Eagles didn't make a bowl game).

Making matters even harder on the Minutemen, is the loss of starting quarterback Kellen Pagel. I have a hard time seeing Massachusetts put anything together offensively. We are talking about a team that averaged just 25.2 ppg and 360 total yards of offense against some pretty bad competition.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Connecticut had this spread covered at halftime. BET THE HUSKIES!