Steve's EC/BYU CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Road underdogs (E CAROLINA) - after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in non-conference games. This system is 29-8 (78%) ATS since 1992. BET EAST CAROLINA +10!

Steve's Boise St/Colo St CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Road favorites (BOISE ST) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. This system is 27-6 (82%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET BOISE STATE -15!

Steve's Navy/ND CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Home favorites (NOTRE DAME) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This system is 51-21 (71%) ATS since 1992. BET NAVY +14!

Steve's UConn/UCF CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UCF) - with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This system is 41-12 (77%) ATS since 1992. BET UCONN +3!

Steve's Ga Tech/Clemson CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA TECH) - in conference games, off an upset loss as a favorite. This system is 173-105 (62%) ATS since 1992. BET GEORGIA TECH +7.5!

Steve's Syracuse/USF CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - A road team (SYRACUSE) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a terrible team (

Steve's ISU/T Tech CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - A home team (TEXAS TECH) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after a loss by 28 or more points. This system is 37-11 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET IOWA STATE +11!

Steve's Akron/E Michigan CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Road favorites (AKRON) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. This system is 27-6 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET AKRON -7.5!

Steve's Texas/Oklahoma CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Any team (TEXAS) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more. This system is 40-14 (74%) over the last 5 seasons. BET OKLAHOMA -16

Steve's Duke/Army CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Home underdogs (ARMY) - a terrible team (

Steve's S Miss/Marshall CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Any team (SOUTHERN MISS) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games, returning 8+ offensive starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. This system is 46-15 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET SOUTHERN MISS +3.5!

Steve's SMU/Houston CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (HOUSTON) - off a road win, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a losing record. This system is 37-13 (74%) over the last 10 seasons. BET HOUSTON -25!

Steve's Hawaii/Boise St CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BOISE ST) - with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game. This system is 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET BOISE STATE -25!

Steve's ND/Clemson CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEMSON) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games. This system is 26-5 (84%) ATS since 1992. BET CLEMSON -1.5!

Steve's Miss St/Texas A&M CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Any team (TEXAS A&M) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games, returning 8+ offensive starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. This system is 44-15 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET TEXAS A&M -5!

Steve's Alabama/Georgia CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GEORGIA) - in conference games, off a home win. This system is 53-18 (75%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET ALABAMA +1.5!

Steve's Ohio St/Indiana CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OHIO ST) - outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game. This system is 61-26 (70%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET OHIO STATE -22!

Steve's W Virginia/Oklahoma CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - A home team (OKLAHOMA) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 3 straight wins by 21 or more points. This system is 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET WEST VIRGINIA +7!

Steve's Houston/Tulsa CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game. This system is 41-15 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET TULSA +7!

Steve's Mich/Maryland CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Home underdogs (MARYLAND) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. This system is 43-13 (77%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET MICHIGAN -14!

Steve's Temple/Charlotte CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Any team (CHARLOTTE) - poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a team with a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR). This system is 62-29 (68%) over the last 5 seasons. BET TEMPLE -21.5!

Steve's Miami/Cinc CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. This system is 46-17 (73%) since 1992. BET THE BEARCATS +6.5!

Steve's Ga Southern/Idaho CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (IDAHO) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. This system is 27-5 (84%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET GEORGIA SOUTHERN -15.5

Steve's Texas St/Houston CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS ST) - excellent passing team - with a completion pct of 62% or better, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This system is 108-57 (66%) since 1992. BET HOUSTON -16.5!

Steve's Missouri/Kentucky CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KENTUCKY) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average offensive teams (21-28 PPG). This system is 25-5 (83%) over the last 10 seasons. BET MISSOURI +3!

Steve's TCU/Texas Tech CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins. This system is 50-15 (77%) ATS since 1992. BET TEXAS TECH +6!

Steve's Tenn/Florida CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - in conference games, after playing 2 straight non-conference games. This system is 33-10 (77%) over the last 5 seasons. BET TENNESSEE!

Steve's Ohio/Minn CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season. This system is 57-24 (70%) ATS since 1992. BET OHIO +10!

Steve's FIU/La Tech CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Road underdogs (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game. This system is 35-10 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons! BET FIU +14.5!

Steve's LSU/Syracuse CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - Road favorites (LSU) - excellent rushing team (>=230 RY/G) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (

Steve's Cincinnati/Memphis CFB Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Cincinnati is 35-16 ATS vs teams outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg, while Memphis is 5-15 ATS vs teams who are averaging 2.75 or more turnovers/game and 13-26 ATS at home after a SU win. These trends combine for a 76-35 (68%) system. BET CINCINNATI +10!

Steve's Pitt/Iowa Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - A home team (IOWA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season. This system is 32-8 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET PITTSBURGH +6!

Steve's S Carolina/Georgia Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (GEORGIA) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry. This system is 43-16 (73%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET GEORGIA -16!

Steve's Utah St/Wash Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) - off a road loss, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season. This system is 34-10 (77%) ATS since 1992. BET UTAH STATE +7!

Steve's Va Tech/Purdue Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play on - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PURDUE) - in non-conference games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This system is 136-75 (65%) ATS since 1992. BET PURDUE +6.5!

Steve's Syracuse/C Michigan Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (C MICHIGAN) - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, team that had a winning record last season. This system is 31-7 (82%) ATS since 1992. BET CENTRAL MICHIGAN +8.5!

Steve's NW/Duke Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Road underdogs (NORTHWESTERN) - after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in non-conference games. This system is 27-6 (82%) ATS since 1992. BET NORTHWESTERN +4!

Steve's Illinois/UNC Blue Chip *TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play On - Road underdogs (ILLINOIS) - after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in non-conference games.This system is 27-6 (82%) ATS since 1992. BET ILLINOIS +8!

Steve's NCAAF Blockbuster *BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Play Against - A home team (KANSAS) - off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season. They are just 11-44 (20%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET MEMPHIS -13!

Steve's NCAAF Blockbuster *BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Home teams in the first month of the season, that closed out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are a mere 6-27 (18%) ATS since 1992. BET THE HURRICANES -18.5!

Steve's NCAAF Blockbuster *BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who scored 31 or more points/game the previous season, in a non-conference game between two FBS power 5 conferences are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET ALABAMA -13!

Steve's Late Night NCAAF *BLUE CHIP TOP PLAY* (5-Units)

Home favorites who averaged 450 or more total yards/game the previous season, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 82-40 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET ARIZONA -31.5

5* Ohio State/Oregon Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Ohio State Buckeyes +7---

This is too many points for Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes to be catching, as I think Ohio State is going to win this game outright. The Buckeyes have the speed and athleticism to match the Ducks up-tempo attack and are going to be the better prepared and better coached team on the field Monday. Ohio State's offense proved just how good they are with they were able to do against a Nick Saban coached defense in the semifinals. I wouldn't be surprised if the Buckeyes took control of this game early and forced Oregon to play from behind, keeping the cover out of question for the Ducks. Meyer is 12-1 ATS in his coaching career after guiding his team to an upset win as an underdog in their last game. BET THE BUCKEYES +7!

5* Cactus Bowl Blue Chip Top Play

---Washington Huskies -7---

I believe this is one of the biggest mismatches in talent of any bowl game. Oklahoma State only winning against a team with a winning record was their regular season finale at Oklahoma and I think that win has the Cowboys overvalued here. Look for Washington to dominate on both sides of the ball as they come out extremely motivated to get their first bowl win under Peterson. BET THE HUSKIES -7!

5* Capital One Bowl Blue Chip Top Play

---Mississippi State Bulldogs -6---

Georgia Tech is just 1-5 in bowl games under head coach Paul Johnson, largely due to the fact that opposing teams get so much extra time to prepare for their option attack. The Yellow Jackets' run first mentality also plays right into the strength of the Mississippi State defense, which finished 24th against the run. Georgia Tech won't be able to contain the Bulldogs offense and this one will turn into a blowout rather quickly. Yellow Jackets are one of the most overrated teams in the country. BET Mississippi State -6!

5* Military Bowl Blue Chip Top Play

---Virginia Tech Hokies +3---
I think the books have made a huge mistake listing the Hokies as an underdog in this matchup. Not only is Virginia Tech going to be motivated to secure their first bowl win since 2009, but they are the more talented team in this matchup. Virginia Tech's strong pass defense matches up perfectly with Cincinnati's pass-happy offense and the Hokies offense should have no problem moving the ball against a weak Bearcats defense. I look for Virginia Tech to win here convincingly, but I'll gladly take the 3-points as insurance.

System - Teams with an average rushing attack (3.5 to 4.3 yards/carry) against a poor run defense (4.3 to 4.8 yards/carry) at least 8 games into the year and after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their last game are 25-4 (86%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET THE HOKIES +3!

5* St Petersburg Bowl Blue Chip Top Play

---UCF Knights -2.5---

UCF has won 3 straight bowl games under George O'Leary and I look for them to have no problem securing their 4th straight bowl victory against NC State, who I think is getting too much respect here due to their 28-point win in their finale against North Carolina. Outside of that win against the Tar Heels, NC State's other six victories came against the likes of Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, USF, Presbyterian, Syracuse and Wake Forest. UCF on the other hand has got better and better as the season has progressed and were riding a huge wave of momentum into their bowl prep with that thrilling win over East Carolina in the finale. This is a great matchup for UCF's defense. NC State is dependent on their running game and the Knights are giving up just 3.1 yards/carry and a mere 97.0 ypg. Look for UCF to have the easier time moving the ball and I wouldn't be shocked if they won here by double-digits.

System - Poor rushing teams (100-140 ypg) against an average run defense (140-190 ypg) at least 8 games into the season in a matchup between two non-conference opponents from major conferences are 46-18 (72%) ATS since 1992! BET THE KNIGHTS -2.5!

5* Fresno State/Rice Hawaii Bowl Blue Chip Top Play

---Rice Owls -2---

I look for Fresno State to struggle to rebound from losing the MWC Championship Game in arguably the least watched bowl game of the year. Rice on the the other hand is going to be motivated to bonce back from that ugly 35-point loss to Louisiana Tech. The Owls won 7 of their 9 games, with the only other loss coming to Marshall. Fresno State's secondary gives up way too many big plays (8.6 yards/pass attempt) and that plays right into the strength of Rice, which averaged 8.2 yards/pass attempt on offense. The Owls also took great care of the football (avg 1.0 turnover/game). Fresno State's passing attack is not good and I look for them to struggle to keep pace here with the Owls. BET RICE -2!

5* BYU/Memphis Miami Beach Bowl Blue Chip Top Play

---Memphis Tigers -2---

I've been on the Memphis bandwagon before the season ever started and the Tigers have delivered in a big way. Memphis went 7-4-1 ATS during the regular season and are once again showing great value. BYU is not the same team as the one that started the year, as they lost their two best offensive players in quarterback Taysom Hill and running back Jamaal Williams to season-ending injuries. I look for Memphis' to shutdown the Cougars rushing attack (only giving up 3.3 yards/carry) and come away with the school's first bowl win since 2005. The Tigers offense also figures to have a field day, as BYU comes in with the 104th ranked pass defense and I look for their stop unit to wear down quickly with their offense struggling to stay on the field.  BET MEMPHIS -2!

5* Nevada/Lafayette New Orleans Bowl Blue Chip Top Play

---Nevada Wolf Pack -1---

The Ragin' Cajuns are getting way too much respect here. The Sun Belt is well known for being the worst FBS conference and it's even worse now with a number of the top teams leaving the conference in recent years. Lafayette cruised to a 7-1 record in the Sun Belt, but were far from impressive in non-conference play. This Nevada team is better than they get credit for and I look for them to have the advantage on both sides of the ball. The Wolf Pack have shown they can run on any opponent and defensively they match up well with Lafayette's one dimensional ground game. While this will feel like a home game for the Ragin' Cajuns, I just don't see them being motivated in what will be their 4th consecutive trip to the New Orleans Bowl. BET NEVADA -1!

5* Big Ten Championship Game Blue Chip Top Play

---Wisconsin Badgers -4---

Even had Ohio State not lost starting quarterback J.T. Barrett, I was coming into this game ready to take Wisconsin. Without Barrett I believe we are getting some exceptional value here with the Badgers only laying 4-points. It's simply asking too much of Cardale Jones to play as well as he needs to to win this game. Even with Barrett the Buckeyes struggled against physical defenses like what they will face with Wisconsin and without him I just don't see the offense being able to score enough to keep this game close. I also think the Buckeyes are going to have a difficult time containing Melvin Gordon late in this game, as their defense figures to wear down with the offense struggling to stay on the field. Wisconsin is favored for a reason in this one, don't let what Ohio State has done to this point fool you into backing the Buckeyes with a quarterback making his first start. 

Key Trends - Wisconsin is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against excellent rushing teams that are averaging 230 or more yards/game and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams who average 450 or more total yards/game. Add it up and that's a 28-9 (76%) system telling us to BET WISCONSIN -4!

5* Arizona/Oregon Pac-12 Championship Game Blue Chip Top Play

---Arizona Wildcats +15.5---

While Oregon has improved since they lost at home to the Wildcats 24-31 as a 21.5-point favorite back in early October, I don't think the Ducks are going to have their way with Arizona like a lot of people are expecting. The Wildcats have won each of the last two in this series and their 3-3-5 defense has really caused problems for Oregon's offense. Arizona also matches up well with the Ducks offensively. The Wildcats have the 18th ranked passing attack (291.4 ypg) and will be going up against an Oregon defense that ranks 107th against the pass (271.8 ypg). Arizona is averaging 488.5 ypg in their last two against Oregon. I expect this one to come down to the wire and wouldn't be surprised at all if the Wildcats pulled off yet another upset against the Ducks. BET ARIZONA +15.5!

5* NCAAF Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Iowa Hawkeyes Pick'em (-106)---

This is a great spot to back the Hawkeyes at home against a Nebraska team that has once again lost their way defensively late in the season. Iowa has a big time homefield advantage, which has them showing great value here as a pick'em. Outside of one big run, the Hawkeyes were able to really contain Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon last week and I look for them to do the same against the Cornhuskers' star back Ameer Abdullah. Iowa is going to have the much easier time moving the football and I wouldn't be surprised if they won this one going away.

Key Trends - Iowa is 25-4 ATS in their last 29 games versus excellent rushing teams who are averaging 5.25 yards/carry and 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games when they come in having lost 2 out of their last 3. BET THE HAWKEYES!

5* NCAAF Situational Game of the Year

---Virginia Cavaliers -6---

There's a reason the books have set this line below a touchdown, as they are trying to entice the public to take the Hurricanes. As well as Miami played against Florida State, this an absolute horrible spot for them. The Hurricanes have to be emotionally crushed following that defeat and with Georgia Tech already haven locked up the Coastal, there's no reason for Miami to get up for this game. Virginia on the other hand has a lot to play for. The Cavaliers need to win this one and next week at Virginia Tech to become bowl eligible and with an extra two weeks of rest I like their chances of getting at least the first one. I'll take the points for some added insurance.

System - Road favorites who are averaging 440+ yards/game against an average offensive team that's putting up 330-390 ypg after a game where they allowed 6.25 or more yards/play are 6-26 (19%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET VIRGINIA +6!

5* NCAAF Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---UTEP Miners +7---

Rice should not be favored by a touchdown against UTEP. While the Owls had won 6 straight prior to losing to Marshall last week, their run was greatly aided by a soft schedule. All 6 of those games came against a team with a losing record. The Miners are just as talented as Rice and that's evident by how these two teams have stacked up against common opponents. Both of these teams have played UTSA, Southern Miss, North Texas and Old Dominion. UTEP went 4-0 against those 4 teams, while Rice went just 3-1. Each put up similar offensive numbers, but the Miners were the much better team defensively. They only allowed an average of 16.5 ppg and 257.5 ypg, while the Owls gave up 24.0 ppg and 331.5 ypg. There's a reason this line has dropped as much as it has. I really like UTEP to win this game outright, but I'll gladly take the touchdown for some insurance.

System - Home favorites in a conference game between two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game) are just 41-86 (32%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET THE MINERS +7!

5* Arkansas St/Texas St Sun Belt Game of the Year

---Arkansas State -6---

The Red Wolves are showing tremendous value here laying less than a touchdown against Texas State. The Bobcats are 3-3 in conference play, but their 3 wins have come vs bad teams in Idaho, ULM and New Mexico State, who combined have won 4 games all season. Arkansas State's only two conference losses have come against quality teams in UL-Lafayette and Appalachian State. Last year the Red Wolves rushed for 328 yards in a 38-21 win over the Bobcats and could have similar success on the ground in this one. Arkansas State is 31st in the country in rushing (214.7 ypg), while Texas State is a mere 104th against the run (214.2 ypg). It's also worth noting that if you look at how these teams have fared against common opponents, the Red Wolves were the much more impressive team.

System - Road teams who have covered the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games with a winning record on the season are 142-86 (62%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET ARKANSAS STATE!

5* NCAAF Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Wisconsin Badgers -6---

While Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah is expected to play, he's not going to be 100% and without him at full strength the Cornhuskers have no chance of keeping this game close. Even with Abdullah healthy I don't think they could keep it within a touchdown. The Badgers come in ranked 5th in the country against the run and are giving up just 2.9 yards/carry. On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin should have no problem establishing it's dominance on the ground. The Badgers are averaging 326.0 ypg with a 7.0 average per carry. Nebraska has allowed 4 straight opponents over the 100-yard mark and are not as good against the run as their overall numbers would suggest.

System - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off 3 straight conference wins against an opponent off a double-digit road win are just 10-32 (24%) ATS since 1992. BET THE BADGERS -6.5!

5* NCAAF Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Akron Zips -3.5---

These two teams may both come into this game with losing records, but I don't believe it's close when it comes to talent. Akron is the far superior team and should have no problem winning here by at least a touchdown. Despite playing a difficult schedule, the Zips come in ranked 40th in the country in total defense (363.6 ypg). Not only will their defense make life miserable for the Bulls offense, but Akron should have no problem scoring points offensively in this one. Buffalo has one of the worst defenses in the country. Despite an easy schedule, they ranked 83rd in total defense (424.0 ypg) and 104th in scoring offense (33.6 ppg). The Zips may come in having lost 3 straight and are no longer in the MAC East race, but they have plenty to pay for down the stretch. At 4-5 Akron still needs two more wins to become bowl eligible and may need to win out to get invited to a bowl.

System - Home teams in a game with two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 yards/carry) at least 8 games into the season after totaling 75 or less rushing yards in their last game are 16-41 (28%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET THE ZIPS -3.5!

5* NCAAF Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Washington Huskies +6.5---

UCLA continues to be one of the most overrated teams in the country and I believe this is a great spot to fade them off last week's home win against Arizona. The Bruins were extremely fortunate to come away with a win in each of their previous two road games, edging Cal 36-34 and escaping Colorado with a 40-37 double-overtime win. Washington is one of the most difficult places for opposing teams to get a win and are going to be extremely motivated after losing their last two at home to Stanford (13-20) and Arizona State (10-24). I'll gladly take the points as some insurance, but I'm expecting Washington to win this game outright.

System - Road teams who have failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, who have won 60%-80% of their games on the season, are just 29-68 (30%) ATS since 1992. BET THE HUSKIES +6.5!

5* Memphis/Temple NCAAF Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Memphis Tigers -7---

I believe this is a great spot to fade Temple off their big 20-10 upset win over East Carolina, where the Pirates beat themselves more than the Owls outplaying them. East Carolina had 5 fumbles and committed 12 penalties for 116 yards. They had a 30 to 10 advantage in first downs and a 428 to 135 edge in total yards. The fact that Temple was able to win will keep Memphis from overlooking the Owls. I'm confident that if the Tigers show up and take this game seriously, not only will they cover, but will win this game by double-digits without much problem. Memphis is the far superior team on both sides of the ball and should be extremely motivated here with the chance to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2008.

System - Road favorites who have beaten the spread by 49 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 70-32 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET THE TIGERS!

5* West Virginia/Oklahoma St Big 12 Game of the Year

---Oklahoma State Cowboys -1----

We have seen a complete overreaction to last week's results. It's going to be extremely hard for West Virginia to bounce back with the same kind of effort they displayed at home against Baylor last week, while Oklahoma State is going to be hungry after a humbling loss to TCU. On top of that, the Cowboys will be out for revenge after getting upset at West Virginia as a 19.5-point favorite last year, which ended up costing them the Big 12 title. The Mountaineers don't play near as well on the road as they do at home, which is evident by the fact that they had to rally from a 14-point 4th quarter deficit in their last road game against a very mediocre Texas Tech team. The Cowboys have a history of bouncing back after an ugly loss, as they are 17-3 ATS in their last 16 home games off a loss by 21 or more points. They are also 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games when playing against a good team that's won 60% to 75% of their games.

System - Road teams off an upset win as a home dog of 7 or more points are 8-32 (20%) ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 10 seasons. BET OKLAHOMA STATE -1!

5* Small Conference Game of the Month

---Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -9---

The Bulldogs have an unexplainable loss at home to Northwestern State, but outside of that their only two other defeats have come against the likes of Oklahoma and Auburn. Skip Holtz has Louisiana Tech off to a 3-0 start in C-USA and this is one of the most improved teams in the country. Southern Miss is 3-4 with their 3 wins coming against Alcorn State, Appalachian State and North Texas, which is nothing to get excited about. That is unless you are the Golden Eagles who had won a total of 1 game over the previous 2 seasons. A telling sign for me is that they lost by 18-points at home to Rice, who isn't as good as this Louisiana Tech squad. Southern Miss has the 88th ranked offense and the 113th ranked defense. Almost all of their offense has come from their passing game (272.7 ypg), but that plays right into the strength of the Bulldogs defense, which is 28th in the country against the pass (203.1 ypg). Louisiana Tech may have the 96th ranked offense, but that's largely due to their poor numbers in their two games against Oklahoma and Auburn. In their other 5 games they are averaging 39.8 points and 405 yards per game.

System - Road favorites who have beat the spread by 49 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 54-23 (70%) ATS when playing on Saturday over the last 5 seasons. BET LOUISIANA TECH -9!

5* BYU/Boise State Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Boise State Broncos -6.5---

The Broncos should have no problem winning at home by at least a touchdown against a BYU team that is no where near as strong without star quarterback Taysom Hill, who was lost for the season. The Cougars' leading rusher Jamaal Williams will also be playing with a bum ankle. I'm not a believer in BYU backup quarterback Christian Stewart and I look for the Cougars offense to have a horrible time trying to keep pace with Boise State. The Broncos come in with the 22nd ranked offense in the country, averaging 483.0 ypg. They will be going up against a BYU defense that has completely fallen apart over the last few weeks. The Cougars have allowed at least 30 points and 385 yards of total offense in each of their last 4 games. You also have to factor in just how good the Broncos are at home. Boise State has lost just 3 times on the blue turf since 2004.

Key Trends/System - BYU is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after playing their last game at home, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 on the road and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Boise State is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record, 27-9 ATS in their last 36 after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 and 15-2 ATS in their last 17 after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 straight games. Add it up and that's a 73-20 (78%) system in telling us to BET BOISE STATE!

5* Arkansas St/Lafayette Blue Chip Top Play

---Arkansas State Red Wolves -2.5---

The fact that oddsmakers have listed the Red Wolves as a road favorite says a lot, especially after Lafayette's impressive win over Texas State last Tuesday and their 23-7 road win at Arkansas State last year. The Red Wolves weren't expected to be a serious contender in the Sun Belt this year, but 1st year head coach Blake Anderson has this team firing on all cylinders and a big reason for that is the play of junior quarterback Fredi Knighten, who I believe has been just as impressive as Lafayette's Terrance Broadway. Knighten has completed 61.6% of his attempts for 1,291 yards with 7 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, while also rushing for 333 yards and 6 scores. Broadway isn't far behind with a 60.7% completion rate and 1,117 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he's thrown 8 interceptions and rushed for just 1 touchdown.

Offensively both of these teams are pretty equal, but I give the edge defensively to Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are allowing just 3.1 yards/carry and opposing quarterbacks are completing just 56.5% of their attempts. The Ragin' Cajuns are allowing 4.6 yards/carry and a completion percentage of 66.5%. Both teams have played Georgia State. Arkansas State held them to 71 rushing yards and 198 passing yards. Lafayette gave up 138 yards on the ground and 287 through the air.

System - Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have beaten the spread by 28 or more points combined in their last 3 games and come in with a winning record are 42-16 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET ARKANSAS STATE -2.5!

5* NCAAF Underdog Game of the Month

---Virginia Cavaliers +3.5---

The wrong team is favored in this matchup. Virginia is one of the most improved teams in the country and will be out for revenge against the Blue Devils. The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the ACC and will be able to keep Duke's rushing attack in check. Virginia is giving up just 91.0 ypg and a mere 2.7 yards/rush. The Blue Devils couldn't run against Miami (85 yards) and lost that game 10-22. Virginia is a lot better defensive team than the Hurricanes and have had a full two weeks to prepare off a bye. The other big key here is that Duke has been awful against the run. They are giving up 202.0 ypg on 4.6 yards/rush. Virginia is the only offense in this one with an edge and I look for the Cavaliers to win this one without much problem. Even with that said, I'll gladly take 3.5-points for some extra insurance. BET VIRGINIA +3.5!

5* Temple/Houston NCAAF Blue Chip Top Play

---Houston Cougars -7---

Houston hasn't got off to the start a lot of people expected, but I think this team is about to go on run. The Cougars finally said enough with starting quarterback John O'Korn, who had completed just 51.7% of his attempts with just 6 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. Backup Greg Ward went 17 of 28 in his first start against Memphis for 188 yards, but he gave the offense a new dimension with his ability to run. Ward had 95 yards and a score on 17 rush attempts. Keep in mind that came against a very good Memphis defense. As for Temple, I'm just not sold on this team being as good as their record indicates. The Owls have played a cupcake schedule to this point and yet are still just 96th in the country in total offense (373.4 ypg). The defense has also looked bad against teams who have any kind of talent offensively. This is a statement game for the Cougars and I look for them to win here by double-digits without much problem.

System - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off 2 straight wins against a conference rival against an opponent off a road win are just 20-58 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET THE COUGARS -7!

5* Utah/Oregon State Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Oregon State Beavers +3---

Utah is being overvalued after their big win at UCLA and Oregon State isn't getting the respect they deserve at home after a less than impressive showing against Colorado. Books are basically begging for action on the Utes with this line, but I'm not taking the bait. The Beavers are tough to beat at home and we have already seen Utah to lose to a mediocre team in Washington State. Oregon State is better defensively than people think and Utah's biggest weakness defensively is stopping the pass. The Beavers rank 28th in the country in total defense and enter this matchup with the 47th ranked passing attack. I'll take the insurance with the 3-points, but I fully expect Oregon State to win outright.

System - Road favorites with an excellent offense (34+ ppg) against a team with an average defense (21-28 ppg) after a win by 6-points or less are just 7-30 (19%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET OREGON STATE +3!

5* Big Ten Early Bird Game of the Month

---Minnesota Golden Gophers -3.5---

Great spot to jump on the Golden Gophers against what I feel is an overrated Northwestern team. I know the Wildcats are coming off back-to-back wins against Penn State and Wisconsin, but I'm just not sold on a team that gives up 284 yards on the ground. They also gave up 221 rushing yards to Northern Illinois, so it's not just the Badgers high-powered rushing attack to why they gave up such a big number. Minnesota is a better team than they get credit for. Their only loss came on the road against TCU, who as we know now is a very good team. What I like here is that you have Northwestern off a huge win as an underdog and will struggle to match that intensity, while the Golden Gophers come in off a bye and have a big edge playing at home.

System - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off 2 straight wins over a conference rival against an opponent off a double-digit road win are just 9-40 (18%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET MINNESOTA -3.5!

5* Stanford/Washington St Pac-12 Game of the Month

This is simply too many points for Washington State to be catching against a Stanford offense that has serious issues scoring points. The Cardinal defense is tough and ranked No. 1 in total defense, but this Cougars offense is capable of scoring on any defense in the country. Washington State is a better team than their 2-4 record would indicate. Three of their 4 losses have come by a touchdown or less, including a 31-38 loss to Oregon. They also went on the road and beat Utah 28-27. In a game that doesn't expect to see a lot of points and Stanford in a bit of a letdown spot after the crushing loss to Notre Dame in the final seconds, I look for the Cougars to keep this one close and if they can catch a couple breaks they could win outright.

Key Trends/System - Washington State is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a road underdog, while head coach Mike Leach is 10-1 ATS on the road after his team allowed 50+ points in their last game and 13-2 ATS in his last 15 off a home loss to a conference rival. Add it up and that's a 29-3 (91%) system telling us to BET WASHINGTON STATE +16.5!

5* Alabama/Ole Miss SEC Game of the Year

---Alabama Crimson Tide -4.5---

As much as I like what Hugh Freeze has done with the Ole Miss program, the Rebels will be no match for the Crimson Tide on Saturday. Alabama is the best team in the country and the offense is rolling under Lane Kiffin. Senior Blake Simms is getting better and better with each week and I look for the Crimson Tide's offense to allow them to win here easily. We have seen Ole Miss's offense struggle to get going against teams like Boise State and Memphis and quarterback Bo Wallace continues to make poor decisions with the football. A slow start and turnovers are a recipe for disaster against an elite team like Alabama, who isn't going to be phased playing in a hostile environment.

System - Home underdogs who are averaging 400 or more yards of total offense after gaining 225 or more total yards in their last game are 7-27 (20%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET ALABAMA -4.5!

5* Fresno St/San Diego St Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---San Diego State Aztecs +3---

I know San Diego State is without starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler, but I still like the Aztecs to come away with a win on the road against an overrated Fresno State squad. Having an inexperienced quarterback won't hurt San Diego State, as the Bulldogs can't stop the run. They come in 107th in the country, giving up 232.4 ypg. The Aztecs have the 51st ranked rushing attack and are averaging 5.3 yards/carry. Fresno State's offense has looked good the past couple of weeks, but it's come against two awful defenses in Southern Utah and New Mexico. San Diego State makes enough stops and puts up plenty of points to get the easy cover.

System - Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 off 1 or more consecutive unders, who are averaging 16+ points in the first half of their games are 56-22 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET THE AZTECS +3!

5* ACC Blue Chip Game of the Year

---NC State Wolfpack +21.5---

This is a huge play against Florida State off that huge win over Clemson that all but assured them a spot in the ACC Championship Game. It didn't come easy at all for the Seminoles, as they were fortunate to get a late turnover with Clemson driving for the game-winning field goal. Not only is that a difficult game for Florida State to bounce back from, last week had to take an emotional toll on this team with all the drama surrounding quarterback Jameis Winston and him being suspended for the game.

The other big key here is that the Seminoles continue to be overvalued by oddsmakers based on what this team was able to accomplish last year. Florida State has yet to cover a game in 2014 and will almost certainly end the season with a losing ATS record. The other thing is that this team is not nearly as good as they were last year.

You also have to take into consideration that every team they face is laying it all on the line to be the ones who beat them. NC State knows a thing or two about upsetting the Seminoles, as they stunned Florida State at home 17-16 as a 16-point dog back in 2011. Carter-Finley Stadium is a difficult place to play in a big game like this and the Wolfpack have a history of covering in this spot. NC State is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games when hosting a ranked opponent.

This Wolfpack team is also hitting their stride at the perfect time. They didn't look great at home against Georgia Southern and Old Dominion, but found a way to win both of those games. They have since destroyed both USF (49-17) and Presbyterian (42-0). Offensively they come in ranked 26th in total offense (502.1 ypg) and 36th in total defense (338.3 ypg). I wouldn't be surprised at all if NC State lost here by single digits, which is why I still recommend this play at the current line of 18.5.

Key Trend/System - NC State is 16-4 (80%) ATS in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning road record. BET THE WOLFPACK +21.5!

5* ODU/Middle Tenn St Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Middle Tennessee State +4---

This is too many points for Old Dominion to be laying at home. Middle Tennessee comes in with the 49th ranked offense in the country (457.6 ypg), behind a well balanced attack. The Blue Raiders are 39th in rushing (207.3 ypg) and 56th in passing (250.3 ypg). Old Dominion is not strong defensively. They just allowed 526 yards to Rice last week and have struggled to stop both the run (169.5 ypg) and the pass (243.5 ypg). I expect both teams to generate plenty of offense with Middle Tennessee having the easier time of the two. 

While this will be the home opener inside C-USA play for Old Dominion, I think this is a difficult spot emotionally for the Monarchs after that huge road win over Rice to secure a victory in what was their conference debut.

Both teams have played quality opponents in non-conference play and performed well, but I've been more impressed with Middle Tennessee's showings against Minnesota and Memphis on the road. Old Dominion's 17-3 win over Eastern Michigan at home is what really concerns me. Eastern Michigan is absolutely awful and to only score 17 points tells me their offense isn't as potent as the numbers would suggest.

Key Trends/System  - Middle Tennessee is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after failing to cover the spread last time out, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after a loss and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. Add it up and that's a 26-8 (76%) system telling us to BET MIDDLE TENNESSEE +4!

5* NCAAF Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---UCLA Bruins -4---

This is a huge revenge spot for UCLA, as their 33-38 home loss to Arizona State last season cost them a spot in the PAC-12 Championship Game. It's been a less than impressive start for the Bruins, but I still feel they are the superior team, especially with the Sun Devils losing starting quarterback Taylor Kelly.

Kelly was the heart and soul of Todd Graham's offense and it's not going to be easy for whoever starts in his place to exceed in this complex offense. It's going to force Arizona State to rely heavily on their running game, which plays right into hands of the strength of the UCLA defense.

Defensively I'm also expecting the Sun Devils to struggle. They only brought back two starters on that side of the ball. Their numbers are respectable coming into this game, but that's due to who they have played. Arizona State has had a cupcake schedule with Weber State, New Mexico and Colorado. The big key here is they allowed the Buffaloes to put up 545 yards of total offense, which is a bad sign. Last year the Sun Devils only gave up 268 yards of total offense to Colorado, so you can see how this unit is clearly weaker.

There's always a risk when laying points on the road in a weekday game, but with a suspect defense and their best offensive player on the sidelines, I believe it's the right play in this one. Wouldn't be shocked at all if the Bruins won here by double-digits. BET UCLA -4!

5* NCAAF Blue Chip Higher Roller ATS Top Play

---Minnesota Golden Gophers -8.5---

Minnesota beat San Jose State at home 43-24 last year and the only reason that game was as close as it was, was because of star quarterback David Fales, who threw for 439 yards and 3 touchdowns. Out of those 439 yards, 197 of them went to wide out Chandler Jones, who also caught all 3 of Fales' touchdown passes. Both of those players are no longer around and that's a big reason why I'm all over the Golden Gophers in this one. Minnesota has 15 starters back from last year, including 8 on offense, so there's every reason to believe they will be able to put up close to the 43 they scored last year.

Couple of keys to why I don't think the spread isn't more. Minnesota is coming off an ugly 7-30 loss at TCU. That loss appears worse than it really was, as the Horned Frogs only went 4-8 last year, but that's one of the most improved teams in the country and legit sleeper in the Big 12. On the flip side of this, no one is going to think less of San Jose State for losing to Auburn 13-59. The public just doesn't realize how bad this Spartans team really is.

Key Trends/System - San Jose State is 0-6 in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 yards of total offense and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after failing to rush for at least 100 yards. Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss by more than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs the MWC. Add it up and that's a 22-3 (88%) system telling us to BET MINNESOTA -8.5!

5* Non-Conference Game of the Year

---Michigan Wolverines -4.5---

The Wolverines are extremely undervalued in this matchup after that ugly 0-31 loss at Notre Dame and less than impressive showing at home last week against Miami (OH). Utah on the other hand is extremely overvalued after two cupcake home wins over Idaho State and Fresno State.

What a lot of people overlook in that loss to Notre Dame game is they actually were a lot more competitive than the final score would indicate. They held the Fighting Irish to just 280 yards of total offense and actually outgained them on the game. They were also more dominant in their win over Miami (OH) than the score would indicate, as they outgained the Red Hawks 460 to 198 (+262).

What's doomed the Wolverines in these last two games is turnovers. They had a -4 turnover margin against Notre Dame and -2 against Miami (OH). Turnovers have a way of evening out over the course of a season and I'm expecting Michigan to take much better care of the ball against a Utes defense that has only forced 1 turnover, despite playing two pathetic teams.

Another big key here is that surprisingly not getting enough respect is the fact that this game is being played at Michigan. The Wolverines are 19-2 at home since Brady Hoke took over as head coach, including a perfect 9-0 record against non-conference opponents. Adding to this is the fact that Utah is not a good road team. The Utes are just 2-9 away from home since 2012.

Key Trends - Utah is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after committing 1 or less turnovers in their last game, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 after covering the spread in their last game. Michigan is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 after failing to cover the spread, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 75 or less rushing yards.

System - Home teams with an excellent run defense that's allowing 2.75 or less yards/carry after a game where they gained 275 or more yards on the ground are 90-46 (66%) ATS since 1992. BET MICHIGAN -4.5!

5* UConn/USF American Athletic Game of the Month

---South Florida -1.5---

I'm all over the home team in Friday's American Athletic showdown between a couple of bad teams in South Florida and Connecticut. It's been a very similar start to the year for both of these squads. Each has had to escape with a win against a FCS opponent and both have lost twice to quality opponents. The Huskies losing to BYU and Boise State and South Florida falling to Maryland and NC State.

For me it comes down to which team has the more talent on the field and in my opinion it's South Florida. Another big key here is that South Florida is in the 2nd year under Willie Taggart, while the Huskies are still transitioning under first year head coach Bob Diaco.

I believe the winner here will be the one that can control the line of scrimmage and I give the edge to South Florida. Connecticut comes in only averaging 67 rushing yards on a mere 1.9 yards/carry. The Bulls are averaging 149 ypg on the ground and 4.6 yards/carry. With the benefit of playing in front of their home crowd and the extra motivation that comes with playing in a spotlight game on ESPN, I like South Florida to win this game by at least a field goal rather easily.

Key Trends/System - Huskies are 2-11 in their last 13 games played in the 1st half of the season and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing a non-conference game. South Florida is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing more than 40 points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after failing to cover last time out. Add it up and that's a 38-7 (84%) system telling us to BET ON SOUTH FLORIDA -1.5!

5* Tennessee/Oklahoma Non-Conference Game of the Month

---Tennessee Volunteers +21---

Oklahoma is simply getting way too much respect from the books and the public for their 2-0 start, which coincides with their bowl win over Alabama. This is not as good of a team as they are getting credit for and no way should they be laying 21-points against Tennessee. The Volunteers are one of the most improved teams in the country and are now in the 2nd year under head coach Butch Jones.

Everyone knows about Oklahoma head coach calling out the SEC and saying how it's not as good as it's hyped up to be. He even took a shot at the bottom half of the league, saying the conference is top heavy. Well, one of those teams he was referring to was Tennessee and I can assure the Volunteers have been talking about that all week. I just don't think the Volunteers will cover this spread, but I believe they have an outside shot at winning this game outright.

Key Trends/System - The Sooners are just 1-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons when listed as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points and 18-42 ATS in their last 60 games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Tennessee on the other hand is 40-22 ATS in their last 62 road games after failing to cover the spread last time out. Add it up and that's a 90-41 (69%) system telling us to BET TENNESSEE +21!

5* Friday Night NCAAF Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Cincinnati Bearcats -9.5---

The Bearcats are the only team in the country to have not played a single game in 2014 and I believe it's got them showing some great value at home against a Toledo team that lost starting quarterback Phillip Ely in their loss last week to Missouri. While Ely was in his first season as the starter at Toledo, he was an Alabama transfer that was highly recruited out of high-school. His loss really hurts the Rockets chances of being competitive against a team like Cincinnati.

The Bearcats aren't going to look past Toledo, as they have lost 3 straight in this in-state rivalry. There's also a ton of motivation here with this being the first game of the season and playing at home. I'm expecting big things out of the Bearcats in 2014, as they look to me to be the class of the American Athletic. Cincinnati will be in the 2nd year under head coach Tommy Tuberville and year two is when you typically see a big jump.

Another reason I like the Bearcats is they have a talented quarterback that not many people are familiar with. Former Notre Dame transfer Gunner Kiel won the starting job and those that follow recruiting will likely remember that Kiel was the top ranked quarterback in his class. I look for him to have a big time debut against a suspect Toledo secondary, which gave up 325 yards and 5 touchdowns to Missouri's Maty Mauk this past weekend.

Cincinnati's always been a strong team against the run and with Ely out the Rockets are going to be focusing on their ground game to move the chains. I look for the Bearcats to keep Toledo's ground game in check and turn this one into a blowout and win here by double-digits without much problem.

Key Trend - Cincinnati is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games. BET CINCINNATI -9.5!

5* BYU/Houston Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Houston Cougars +18---

Houston is showing exceptional value as an 18-point underdog against what I feel is an overrated BYU team. The Cougars have opened with a couple of impressive wins against a couple of bad teams in Connecticut and Texas. Last year BYU edged Houston by a final of 47-46 and needed a touchdown with just 1:08 to play to secure the win.

Houston got off to a bad start with a 20-point home loss to UTSA (7-27), but that lopsided loss was a direct result of Houston finishing the game with 6 turnovers. Houston got their offense rolling in a 47-0 win over Grambling State and I look for them to have a lot of success here against a BYU defense that I don't feel is as strong as last year.

BYU lost their leading tackler in linebacker Uani Unga along with 2x All-American linebacker Kyle Van Noy. They could also be without one of their returning starters at linebacker in Bronson Kaufusi, who is questionable with a leg injury. Houston's passing attack picked apart BYU's defense for 435 yards through the air last year. Teams that can throw the ball have been able to keep it close against BYU and I expect Houston to make this a lot more competitive than the odds are suggesting.

Key Trends - BYU is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after playing 2 consecutive road games, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after accumulating 200 or more yards rushing and just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 following a SU win. Houston is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 following a SU win and 11-4 in their last 15 after a SU win by more than 20 points.

System - Home favorites after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET HOUSTON +18!

5* Situational ATS Blue Chip Game of the Year

---Akron Zips +14---

Penn State was able to knock off UCF 26-24 in their opener, thanks to a last minute drive that set them up for the game winning field goal. I'm not big on UCF at all, so that win doesn't impress me, but that's not why I'm all over Akron in this matchup. Their game against the Knights was played in Dublin, Ireland and they were dealt a big scheduling blow by not getting a bye week following.

The jet lag makes it extremely difficult to practice at the level needed. Just ask Notre Dame. They went overseas to play Navy in their opener back in 2012 and had to come back the next week and face a poor Purdue squad. The Irish barely squeaked by with a 20-17 win and that was the year they went 12-0 and played for the BCS National Championship.

Even without the long distance travel, I believe this team would still have a difficult time beating Akron by more than 2 touchdowns. It wasn't that long ago the Zips were one of the worst teams in the country. They finished 1-11 three consecutive years from 2010 to 2012, but the everything changed when Terry Bowden took over as the head coach. The After going just 1-11 in Bowden's first season, Akron went 5-7 last year and weren't far from making a bowl, as three of their losses came by 7-points or less, that includes a 24-28 road loss to Michigan.

I just don't think Akron will keep it close enough to cover, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. This is a big opportunity for the Zips to make a statement against a power conference team.

Key Trends - Akron is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

System - Home team (PENN ST) - in non-conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 27-64 (30%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET AKRON +14!

5* Pitt/Boston College Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Pittsburgh Panthers -4.5---

Pittsburgh should have no problem covering this number. The Panthers absolutely dominated FCS Delaware last week 62-0 as a mere 24-point favorite. Boston College on the other hand had a less than impressive 30-7 win over a bad UMass team. The Eagles only led by a score of 6-0 at the half. While Boston College did add in talented Florida transfer Tyler Murphy at quarterback, they have just 3 starters back on offense. Murphy's biggest threat is his legs. If Pitt can jump out to an early lead, he's not the guy you want to play from behind.

Defensively, the Eagles have 6 starters back, but they lost their top two tacklers from last year, who each finished with more than 100 tackles. They allowed 160 ypg (4.0 ypc) on the ground last year and I just don't see them being able to slow down the Panther sophomore running back James Connor, who had 153 yards and 4 scores on just 14 carries in the opener. That's going to open up play action and some big gains down the field.

Key Trends/System - Boston College is just 3-8 ATS after a win by 20+ points and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing less than 20 points. Pittsburgh is 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 40+ points. Add it up and that's 19-6 (76%) system telling us to BET PITTSBURGH -4.5

5* Miami/Louisville NCAAF Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

I'm expecting Louisville to struggle early on in 2014. The Cardinals lost a ton of talent from last year's team, most notably starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who was the main reason why the Cardinals enjoyed so much success over the last couple of years. They also are in bad shape defensively. Louisville has just 4 starters back on that side of the ball and lose their two best players in safety Calvin Pryor and defensive end Marcus Smith.

Miami has had this game circled all offseason, as they were embarrassed in the Russell Athletic Bowl by the Cardinals 9-36 last year. The Hurricanes have to replace starting quarterback Stephen Morris, but with Duke Johnson back healthy at running back and the talent Miami has at the receiver positions, I look for the offense to be just as potent as it was a year ago. I'm also expecting big improvements from the Hurricanes defense, which returns 7 starters and have added in some nice JUCO talent up front on the defensive line.

I look for Johnson to have a big game and for Miami to take control of this contest early and easily go on to cover the 3.5-point spread. BET THE HURRICANES +3.5!

5* Wisconsin/LSU Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---LSU Tigers -5---

A lot of people are saying that this is a evenly matched game, but I completely disagree. I think there's no question that LSU is more talented squad and I look for them to win here rather easily.

There's a lot being made of the losses that LSU suffered on offense, but few teams reload as well as the Tigers and I think a lot of people are underestimating the impact that offensive coordinator Cam Cameron had on last year's success. If anything the Tigers should be able to run the football right down the throat of the Badgers defense. LSU has a special talent coming in at running back in Leonard Fournette and 4 of 5 starters returning on the offensive line. Wisconsin returns just 3 starters on defense and will find it difficult to replace the production of linebacker Chris Borland, who led the team with 112 tackles.

Playing in the SEC the Tigers are well-accustomed to teams who like to run the football like Wisconsin. Just look at the struggles former Wisconsin head coach Bret Beilema had at Arkansas last year. LSU has 7 starters back on defense and I look for their speed and athleticism to be too much for the Badgers to overcome. I look for the Tigers to end up winning here by 14+ points. BET LSU -5!

5* NCAAF Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Bowling Green -7---

I'll gladly lay the 7-points on Bowling Green in this matchup. I believe the Falcons are not getting the respect they deserve due to the loss of head coach Dave Clawson. Bowling Green did a nice job of replacing Clawson with Dino Babers and a lot of the talent that Clawson brought in and developed is back from last year's MAC Championship squad.

Offensively the Falcons get back 7 starters, including underrated starting quarterback Matt Johnson, who had an impressive 25 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions in his first year as the starter. Bowling Green also returns leading rusher Travis Greene (1,594 yards, 11 TDs). I look for the Falcons to have their way against a Western Kentucky defense that loses their top 5 tacklers and has just 4 starters back. That includes the loss of Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Xavius Boyd.

The Hilltoppers also lose a big time talent on the offensive side of the ball in running back Antonio Andrews, who was the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year in 2013 with 1,730 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. Andrews also played a big part in the passing game, catching 41 passes for 478 yards. Add in the loss of head coach Bobby Petrino, who is an offensive genius and I look for Western Kentucky's offense to struggle to move the chains against a physical Bowling Green defense.

Laying points with the Falcons hasn't been an issue over the last 3 seasons. Bowling Green is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games when listed as the favorite and a perfect 6-0 ATS during this stretch when listed as a road favorite. BET BOWLING GREEN -7!

5* Texas A&M/South Carolina Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Texas A&M Aggies +11---

The Aggies are extremely undervalued because of the loss of Johnny Manziel. Anyone who has paid attention to Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin, knows that he's one of the best in the business at finding talent at the quarterback position and developing them into stars. I look for sophomore Kenny Hill to surprise a lot of people with how well he plays. You also can't overlook the fact that the Aggies recruit as well as any team in the country and have big time playmakers littered on the offensive side of the ball. It's not just the Texas A&M offense I'm excited about, but I think the defense is going to wow a lot of people with how much better they are this year compared to last season. The Aggies have 9 starters back on that side of the ball.

For South Carolina, I think this will be a difficult season. They too lose their starting quarterback in Connor Shaw, who was a lot better than he ever got credit for. The Gamecocks also lose a big piece of their defense in the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, who made everyone around him better. I just don't think there's as big a gap in talent as this line would suggest and I wouldn't be shocked if Texas A&M won this game outright! BET THE AGGIES +11!