3* NCAAB 'Situational' ATS ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico -

I like the value here with the Lobos laying a short number at home against the Cowboys. All we basically need here is for New Mexico to win the game outright. The Lobos should have no problem doing just that, as they are 7-3 at home, outscoring their opponents by 17.5 ppg. Wyoming on the other hand is just 3-4 on the road. 

Last time out the Lobos crushed laid it on San Jose State, beating the Spartans 80-47 as a 10-point favorite. New Mexico has responded well off a blowout win, as they are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 off a victory by 30 or more points. 

We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Cowboys. Teams off a conference home win (Wyoming) going up against a team that won by 30+ in a conference game are 25-57 (30%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New Mexico! 

4* NBA 'Magic/Bucks' VEGAS INSIDER on Magic +

I like the value here with Orlando catching double-digits on the road Wednesday at Milwaukee. The public wants nothing to do with this Magic team right now. Orlando is a mere 1-14 SU in their last 15 and a pathetic 3-14 ATS in their last 17. Not to mention they are playing on no rest after a game last night in Dallas, which they lost 99-114 as a 7.5-point dog. 

The books had no choice but to inflate this line on the Bucks and I just can't pass up the value here, especially given that Milwaukee hasn't been playing all that great of late and are in a major lookahead spot with a big game at home against the defending champs (Warriors) on deck this Friday. I think the Bucks go through the motions here and do just enough to get the win. 

Milwaukee is just 4-10-3 in their last 17 games against a team from the east and 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Bucks are also just 17-40 in their last 57 when laying double-digits. Take Orlando! 

3* NCAAB Vegas UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Wisconsin +

I like the value here with the Badgers catching points on the road against the Cornhuskers. Nebraska is getting a lot of respect for keeping it closer than expected last time out against Purdue, despite losing the game by 12-points. That was simply a bad line by the books, as they continue to overvalue the Boilermakers. The Cornhuskers have now covered the spread in 6 straight games where a line has been posted and I believe we are seeing this line inflated as a result. 

There's no arguing that this isn't the same caliber a Badgers team as previous seasons, but it's not a bottom feeder either. The loss at Rutgers in their last game looks bad on paper, but that's a much improved Scarlet Knights team and I don't think Wisconsin went into that game with the right mindset. That won't be the problem here, as I expect a big time effort and outright win by the Badgers tonight. Take Wisconsin! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Blazers +

I like the value we are getting here with Portland as a near double-digit dog against the Thunder. The public won't want anything to do with the Blazers in this one, as star point guard Damian Lillard is out with a calf injury. Most will just assume Portland has no chance of keeping close without Lillard. 

What they will overlook is how his absence takes away some of the focus and motivation for OKC, who were already going to have a tough time getting up for this game with tomorrow's big showdown at Minnesota on ESPN. Don't be surprised if the Thunder just go through the motions here and end up finding themselves sin a much closer game than expected. 

Portland has won 2 straight, both at home, which is important to note, as they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games after 2 or more home wins under head coach Stotts. Blazers are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games with a total of 200 to 209.5, while the Thunder are a mere 5-17 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Portland! 

5* Alabama/Georgia CFB Champ NO LIMIT Top Play on Georgia +

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Bulldogs in Monday's national championship game. Because Alabama has been here before and are coming off the more dominant performance in the semifinals, the perception is that they are the better team and the books are going to inflate this line, knowing the public will be on the Crimson Tide. I'm not so sure that Georgia isn't the better team. If anything, this line should be closer to a pick'em than a touchdown, which makes this an easy play for me. 

Don't be fooled by Georgia's struggles defensively against Oklahoma. I don't know that there's a defense in the country that could slow down Baker Mayfield and that Sooners attack. The Bulldogs made some great adjustments at the half and should have a much easier time shutting down Alabama's offense. The Crimson Tide only had 261 total yards and 16 first down the entire game against Clemson and benefited big time by jumping out to a 10-point lead. This Alabama offense simply isn't that good. 

I know the Crimson Tide defense looked like a different animal against Clemson, but let's not forget they had more than a month to prepare for the Tigers and the past two years have looked great defensively in the semifinals and then struggled in the title game. I think the 1-2 punch of Georgia's rushing attack will be the difference, as I think the Bulldogs win this one outright. Take Georgia! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Cavs 

I like the value here with Cleveland as a road dog against the Wolves on Monday. No question that Minnesota has been playing much better of late, but I think the Cavs are about to go off here now that Isaiah Thomas is healthy an in the starting lineup. Thomas gives Cleveland another prolific scorer who can take over games when James isn't on the floor, which should allow him to rest a little more and be even that much moor effective when he does play. 

In the first two games with Thomas, Cleveland has scored 127 and 131 points, while shooting over 50% from the field in both games. I just think the Cavs have too much fire-power for the Timberwolves, who have to be a bit fatigued here playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Cleveland! 

3* NBA Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Lakers -

I like the value here with Los Angeles as a short home favorite agains the Hawks on Sunday. It's been a dreadful run here for the Lakers, but a big reason for the struggles was some key guys being out with injuries. While they may be without Larry Nance (questionable), they are pretty much at full strength and I expect a huge effort here from the Lakers. 

Atlanta is the ideal team for LA to get back on track against. The Hawks are arguably the least talented team in the league and have gone a miserable 3-17 on the road this season, where they are losing by an average of 6.6 ppg. Last time out they managed to score just 89 points in a blowout loss to the Blazers and I don't see things getting any better on this west coast trip. Take Los Angeles! 

5* CAR/NO 'Wild Card' GAME OF THE YEAR on Panthers +

I love the value we are getting here with Carolina as a touchdown dog against the Saints in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup. Sure, New Orleans won both regular season meetings between these two NFC South rivals, but that only makes me like the Panthers more. You hear it all the time. It's extremely hard to beat the same team 3 straight times in the NFL, especially in the same season. Big key here is we just need the Panthers to keep in within a touchdown. 

Each of the first two meetings the Saints were able to get their running game going, rushing 149 yards in Carolina in Week 3 and 148 at NO in Week 13. Most will just assume that it's going to be the same old story in the playoffs, but I think the more you see a team the easier they become to stop and let's not forget that the Panthers finished the year 3rd in the league against the run, giving up just 88.1 ypg. 

As for Carolina's offense, they will have a big time player maker on the field that didn't play in either of the first two games against the Saints. That's star tight end Greg Olsen, who when healthy has been Cam Newton's favorite target. Last year he led the team with 80 receptions for 1,073 yards. I also think Newton has shown in the past that he can step up and deliver on the big stage and this is a Carolina team that went 7-2 over their finale 9 games. 

It's also worth pointing out that the road team is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 meetings and the underdog has cashed in 6 of the last 7 meetings. Panthers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in January. Take Carolina! 

4* NCAAB Situationa ATS NO BRAINER  on Quinnipiac +

I like the value here with the Bobcats catching a big number on the road against the Peacocks. Quinnipiac had started out 2-0 in league play before they went ice cold in a 74-82 loss at home to Canisius on Friday. The Bobcats shot just 35.1% from the field and had 15 turnovers, while only forcing 5. The fact that they only lost by 8 is pretty impressive.

I think it has them undervalued here and wouldn't be shocked if Quinnipiac won this game outright. St Peter's is just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after going over the total in 2 straight games, while the Bobcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games when listed as a dog of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Quinnipiac! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Fairfield +

I like the value here with the Stags catching a big number on the road against the Gaels. I just don't see a whole lot that separates these two teams. Iona is simply getting too much respect here playing at home and the fact that the Stags are coming off an ugly 77-96 loss at Rider. 

The Gaels are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games overall and a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home conference games. Iona is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 following a SU win and are just 1-5 ATS in their lat 6 games played on Sunday. Stags are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 90 or more points in their last game and 23-10 ATS in their last 33 as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points.  Take Fairfield! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Long Beach State +

I like the value here with the 49ers catching points on the road against the Anteaters. These two teams have played a similar strength of schedule, yet Long Beach State is sitting at 7-10 and UC-Irvine is just 5-12. The 49ers are also coming into this game having won 2 straight. The most recent an upset 89-81 win over Hawaii.

The Anteaters have just 1 win in their last 8 games and simply should not be this big of a favorite against any team right now. Even if they find a way to win this game, chances are it's by fewer than 7 points. Take Long Beach State!

3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Riverside +

I like the value here with the Highlanders catching double-digits on the road against the Gauchos. While Santa Barbara is the more talented team, Riverside played the tougher non-conference schedule and are simply way undervalued coming into league play.

We saw that first hand in their last game, as the Highlanders lost by a final of 65-68 as a 7.5-point underdog. Exact opposite for the Gauchos, who were a 4.5-point favorite over Cal Poly and lost outright. Take UC Riverside! 

4* ATL/LAR 'Wild Card' NO BRAINER on Falcons +

I like the value here with the Falcons catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Rams. Atlanta didn't have the success in the regular season that most were expecting, but none of that matters now. What gets overlooked is just how hard it is for the team that lost the previous year's Super Bowl to simply get back in the postseason. This team can finally relax and I wouldn't be the least big surprised to see them win this game outright. 

Not to take anything away from the Rams and what they were able to accomplish this season, but I have some big concerns with their ability to carry it over into the playoffs. One of the biggest advantages that the Falcons have in this matchup is experience. Simply put, I don't trust Goff to perform at the level needed for the Rams to win here via a blowout.

It's also worth noting that there's something about the NFC West that has brought out some of the best in the Falcons. Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons when facing a team from this division and have won these contests by an average of 15.3 ppg. LA is also just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Atlanta! 

5* NCAAB 'Ivy League' GAME OF THE MONTH on Dartmouth +

I love the value here with the Big Green catching double-digits here against the Crimson. Dartmouth has gone a miserable 1-6 in road games so far this season, but that's playing into this line. Their losses on the road have actually come by fewer than 10 ppg. Harvard is also just 5-9 on the season and while they are 3-1 at home, their wins at home have come by just around 4 ppg. 

The Big Green have historically been a good team to back when they come in having not exactly played well. Dartmouth is 12-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having won just 1 or 2 of their last 7 games. They are also a dominant 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after a SU loss. 

It's also worth pointing out that the Big Green have covered 5 of their last 7 trips to Harvard and the road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 overall. Take Dartmouth! 

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on St. Peter's

I like the value here with the Peacocks as a decently priced road dog against the Gaels. St. Peter's comes in off an impressive 77-64 home win over Monmouth as a 2-point dog, while Iona enters off a 78-85 loss at Canisius as a 1-point favorite. 

The Peacocks are the much better defensive team, as they come in allowing just 67.2 ppg, while the Gaels are allowing 77.2 ppg. That's going to make it difficult on Iona just to win, let along win here by near double-digits. Gaels are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games after playing 2 straight as a road favorite, while the Peacocks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a conference win by 10 or more points. Take St. Peter's! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wolves +

I like the value here with Minnesota as a small road dog against the Celtics on Friday. The Timberwolves come in off a 97-98 loss at Brooklyn, but have been playing some of they best basketball here of late. Minnesota is 7-2 over their last 9 and are going to be motivated here off that upset loss to the Nets. 

As for the Celtics, they have won 4 straight and are fresh off a 102-88 win over the Cavs. That game against Cleveland was one they were looking forward to in a big way and I think they have a hard time showing up with that same intensity here against the Timberwolves. Look for Minnesota to want it more tonight. T-Wolves head coach Tom Thibodeau has got his team to thrive in this spot, as he's 38-19 ATS in the last 57 road games he's coached on Friday night. Celtics on the other hand are a mere 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games after playing 2 straight at home under Brad Stevens. Take Minnesota! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Fairfield +

I like the value here with the Stags catching points on the road against the Broncs. Fairfield is coming off a crushing 58-61 loss at Manhattan. The Stags couldn't have played much worse and still almost won the game. Fairfield shot just 35% from the field, while Manhattan shot 49%. I expect a much better showing here offensively from the Stags against a Broncs defense that has allowed 76+ in each of their first two conference games. 

Fairfield has covered 14 of the last 17 meetings in the series, including 3 of the last 4. They are also a perfect 4-0 SU in the last 4 meetings, including a 2-0 SU mark in their last 2 at Rider. The Broncs are also just 6-19 ATS in their last 25 home games after a road game where both teams scored 75+ and  just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games after 3 or more straight games on the road. Take Fairfield! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Santa Clara +

I like the value here with the Broncos as a short road dog against the Lions. Santa Clara was embarrassed in their last game, losing 101-52 at Gonzaga. No team likes to get beat like that and my money is on the Broncos coming out extremely motivated and not only covering the spread but beating Loyola Marymount outright. 

The Lions come in having lost 4 straight and simply shouldn't be this big a favorite against the Broncos in this spot. Loyola is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after playing 2 straight road games, while the Broncos are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after a game with 9 or less assists. Take Santa Clara! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Western Carolina +

I like the value here with the Catamounts catching a decent number here on the road against the Mocs. These two teams come in with similar records, but Western Carolina has played the much tougher schedule and my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. The Mocs are just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 conference games and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games after scoring 65 or fewer points in 2 straight games.

We also have a great system in play backing a fade of Chattanooga. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UT-CHATTANOOGA) - poor defensive team (45-47.5%) against a horrible defensive team (47.5% or worse), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO's) are 5-25 (17%) ATS since 1997. Take Western Carolina! 

5* NCAAB *Big West* GAME OF THE MONTH on Riverside +

I love the value here with the Highlanders as a near double-digit dog on the road against the Titans. In the last 8 meetings in the series UC-Riverside has won 5 times and all 3 losses have come by fewer than the spread listed here.

In fact, the Highlanders are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 meetings at UC Fullerton, as the road team is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings overall. In last year's meeting at the Titans Riverside was a 7.5-point dog and won outright 71-63. I see no reason why not to expect a close game here and wouldn't be shocked at all if the Highlanders won this game outright. Take UC Riverside! 

4* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER on Delaware +

I like the value here with the Blue Hens catching double-digits on the road against Charleston. Delaware comes in having won 4 straight and last time out won outright at UNC-Wilmington as a underdog. Charleston is simply overvalued here playing at home and coming in having won 9 of their last 10. 

Note that we have a lot total here of 129, which only adds more value to the points. Charleston is also a mere 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games with a total of 129.5 or less and just 18-34 ATS in their last 52 home games when they come in having won 4 of their last 5. Take Delaware! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on William & Mary +

I like the value here with the Tribe catching points on the road against James Madison. William & Mary comes in a t8-4 and are 1-0 in conference play, while the Dukes are just 4-10 on the season and lost at home in their conference opener to Northeastern. 

Last time out the Tribe beat Hofstra 90-87 behind great 3-point shooting and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a game where they combined for 155 or more points and 6-0 ATS last 7 after a game where they shot 50% or better from behind the 3-point line. 

We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Dukes. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 after a game where they allowed 80 or more points and playing a team that has allowed 80+ in at least 2 straight games are a mere 18-44 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take William & Mary! 

5* New Year's Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -

I think we are getting some outstanding value here with the Crimson Tide laying less than a field goal, as I not only think Alabama wins this game, but does so convincingly. This is a massive revenge spot for the Crimson Tide, who lost to the Tigers in last year's championship game. 

A couple big differences this time around. Unlike the last two years when these two teams played in the title game, this time they meet in the semifinals. Instead of having just 1 week to prepare for Clemson, Alabama now has had a month to put together a game plan for the Tigers. The other big difference is Clemson no longer has Deshaun Watson at quarterback. No disrespect to Kelly Bryant, who has a better year than most expected, but he's no where close to being the same player as Watson and with how good this Alabama defense is against the run, he's got to play exceptional for them to win. 

There's plenty of talk about Clemson and their dominant defensive front, but they have been loaded on that side of the ball each of the last two years and Alabama has had no problem moving the ball on them. Last year the Tide rushed for 221 yards on 34 attempts (6.5 yards/carry) and put up 45 on them the year before. I just don't think the Tigers can keep pace offensively without Watson behind center. Take Alabama! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Quinnipiac +

I like the value here with the Bobcats catching points on the road against the Saints. Quinnipiac comes in off an impressive 78-76 win at home over Monmouth as a 6.5-point dog and have now covered 4 straight games where a line has been posted. Siena on the other hand comes in off a road loss at Marist as a 3-point favorite and are now just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 lined games.  

The Saints are also just 2-5 SU in their last 7 games and this puts them in a great fade spot, as they are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a contest having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Siena is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs a team with a losing record, while the Bobcats are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after covering last time out. Take Quinnipiac! 

4* Peach Bowl No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Central Florida +

I like the value here with UCF catching double-digits against Auburn. The Knights finished the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record and improved to 13-0 with a win over Memphis in the AAC title game. I expect them to be extremely motivated here to finish this off with one last week to get to 14-0 against a SEC team. 

A big key here is that while UCF head coach Scott Frost has accepted the job at Nebraska, he's showing his commitment to his players by sticking with the team through the bowl game. I expect his players to return the favor and give it their all in this one. 

Auburn is hands down the better team, but you can't just look at that when it comes to bowl season. You have to factor in motivation and I just don't see how the Tigers are going to get up for this contest. Auburn went on a remarkable run to end the season, which included wins over Georgia and Alabama in their final 3 games to make the SEC title game. The Tigers couldn't finish off the job, losing in a rematch to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, which was a play-in for the playoffs. No disrespect to UCF or the Peach Bowl, but this doesn't come close to comparing to being in the playoffs and I just don't see Auburn being locked in for this one. Take Central Florida! 

4* Outback Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Michigan -

I like the value here with the Wolverines laying single digits against the Gamecocks in Monday's Outback Bowl. On paper these two teams look very similar, as both are a bit limited offensively and rely heavily on their defense. With that said, I think Michigan is hands down the better side on both sides of the ball, plus they have a big edge here in coaching with Jim Harbaugh. 

The biggest thing here for me is I just don't think the Gamecocks are going to be able to score enough to keep this one competitive. Michigan finished the year 3rd in the country, allowing just 268.1 ypg and were great against both the run and the pass. South Carolina had just the 109th ranked offense in the country and when they went up against top notch defense they struggled to produce. The Gamecocks scored just 10 points in their two matchups against Georgia and Clemson, two very similar teams in terms of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Take Michigan! 

4* NFL Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Carolina +

I like the value here with the Panthers catching over a field goal against the Falcons in Week 17. So much attention has been paid to the Eagles, Rams, Saints and Vikings in the NFC that the Panthers are somehow flying under the radar. Carolina got off to a bit of a slow start (just 4-3 in their first 7)  as Cam Newton was still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, but this team has taken off since he's returned to 100% healthy. The Panthers come in having won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8, which includes a win over these Falcons and a win over the Vikings and Packers (Rodgers return game). 

Atlanta needs to win this game to ensure a spot in the postseason, but you can't get caught up in teams in a "must-win" spot. Atlanta's offense got going in the middle portion of their schedule, but have really struggled here of late. The Falcons are only averaging 16.5 ppg over their last 4 games and now go up against one of the best defenses in the league. Carolina ranks 6th against the run (89.9 ypg) and are only giving up 208 ypg through the air on the road. 

Panthers have thrived in the role of a road dog, as they are 77-54 ATS in their last 131 games when getting points away from home. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games overall. Take Carolina! 

3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rams - 

I know the Rams aren't going to be playing a lot of their starters in this game, but I still like them to find a way to win at home against the 49ers. It's hard to believe that a team that started 0-9 is now the talk of the NFL, but with the play of Jimmy Garoppolo that's the case with San Francisco. I think it has the 49ers getting a little too much respect here in a division road game. 

I'm not buying any talk of the Rams just laying down because there starters aren't playing. The guys that are playing are going to give it all they got. I also think the fact that LA isn't playing their starters take away some of the edge here for the 49ers, who were likely looking forward to using this game as a measuring stick going into next year. I think it could have San Francisco coming out flat and it will be hard for them to cover this spread if they don't take Los Angeles seriously. 

49ers are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after giving up 30+ points in their previous game. San Francisco is also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams averaging 5.65 yards/play. Keep in mind that LA will still be running the same schemes offensively, even though the starters won't be playing much if at all. Take Los Angeles! 

5* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH on Bengals +

I love the value here with Cincinnati catching double-digits against the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore is getting way too much respect here due to the fact that they have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games and are the only team with something to play for. The thing is, Baltimore's recent run has come against a very soft schedule, as the 5 wins are against the Packers (without Rodgers), Texans, Lions, Browns and Colts. 

While the Bengals come in off a 26-17 win over the Lions, I still think they are undervalued due to their previous two games, where they lost 7-33 at home to the Bears and 7-34 at Minnesota. This team rallied and played one of it's best games last week in what most expected to be the final home game for head coach Marvin Lewis. I expect another big effort here in what will likely be Lewis' last game at the helm of the Bengals. 

Baltimore's also not the type of team that should be laying double-digits. While the offense has been better of late, they are still extremely limited on that side of the ball. You also have to factor in the increase in production has come from the soft schedule. This Bengals defense did an outstanding job against the Ravens defense earlier in the year, limiting them to just 268 yards and 20 points, despite the offense turning it over 5 times. I think they do enough here to keep this close and maybe even win the game outright. 

Cincinnati is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in December and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record and are 0-4 ATS in this spot when playing at home. Take Cincinnati! 

4* NFL Afternoon VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins +

The public is going to back Buffalo here for the simple fact that the Bills are still in the playoff hunt and Miami is out of it. I don't think that's going to be the case at all. The last thing any team wants to do is let one of their division rivals clinch a playoff spot by beating them, especially on their home field. Now I know the Bills need some other things to happen beside winning this game to get in, but I'm confident we are going to get a big time effort from the Dolphins in this spot. Keep in mind it was a 16-24 loss at Buffalo in Week 15 that put an end to Miami's playoff hopes.

Miami's defense played well in that game against the Bills a few weeks back, limiting them to just 328 yards. They were especially good at shutting down Buffalo's high-powered rushing attack, as the Bills had just 116 yards on 30 attempts. 

The Dolphins have been a good bet at home against good teams, as they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Buffalo on the other hand is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 division games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Miami! 

3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Giants +

I like the value here with New York catching points at home against the Redskins in Week 17. The Giants come in off an embarrassing loss last week, where they were shutout by the Cardinals in a  24-0 defeat. I think we see a different NY team take the field in what will be their home finale. There's plenty of uncertainty with who is going to still be on the team next year and I think the players come together and do whatever it takes to get the win on Sunday. 

I know the Giants are going to be down to the 3rd stringers at wide receiver, but this Redskins secondary has been atrocious on the road this season. Washington is giving up an average 259 yards/game and 7.9 yards/pass attempt away from home. They also give up 4.9 yards/carry and 150 yards/game on the ground. No surprise they have allowed 28.4 ppg on the road this season. 

While the offense struggled in last week's game against Arizona, the defense played played really well. New York held the Cardinals to just 293 total yards and forced 3 turnovers. I think they can make things tuff here for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins offense. Note that Cousins has had trouble in his career against this Giants defense. 

Lastly, I question how motivated Washington is really going to be for this game. It was clearly important to them to get a win in their home finale last week, but there's absolutely nothing to play for. A win over the Giants isn't going to do anything and they already beat this team once this season. I could see the players being more interested in getting this game over with and focusing on their New Year's plans. Take New York! 

4* NCAAB Vegas HEAVY HITTER on Iona -

I like the value here with the Gaels laying a short number on the road against the Golden Griffins. Iona comes in having won 6 of their last 8 with the only two losses coming on the road against St. John's and Rhode Island as double-digit dogs. They are simply the better team and should be laying more than this against one of the bottom feeders of the MAAC. 

Iona has gone an impressive 19-8 in their last 27 conference road games, while the Golden Griffins are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games when coming off 3 or more wins in a row. 

We also have a strong system in play backing a fade of Canisius. Home underdogs with just two returning starters from last year, who are coming off a close home win by 3-points or less are just 61-109 (36%) ATS dating all the way back to 1997. Take Iona! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rider +

I like the value here with the Broncs as at basically a pick'em on the road against the Purple Eagles. Rider comes in off a heartbreaking 76-77 loss at Canisius, but that was a tough spot playing on 7 days rest and off that huge upset win on the road over Penn State. I expect the Broncs to rebound here with a comfortable win over Niagara. 

While neither of these teams play much defense, the Purple Eagles have been atrocious on that side of the ball. Niagara is allowing 88 ppg, while allowing opponents to shoot 48% from the field and 40% from behind the 3-point line. Last time out they gave up 98 points to Iona and the Gaels only shot 39.5% from the field. 

Broncs are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog, while the Purple Eagles are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 at home after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more points and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after playing their previous game as a home dog. Take Rider! 

3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Monmouth -

I like the value here with the Hawks laying a short number on the road against the Peacocks. This line really says it all, as Monmouth is favored, yet they come in at 4-9, while St. Peter's is 6-6. Not only have the Hawks played the much tougher schedule, but they have had some tough breaks in close games.

Out of their 9 losses, only 2 have come by more than 11 points and those two were against Virginia and Kentucky. Last time out they lost a heartbreaker at Quinnipiac 76-78 in their conference opener and that's only going to have them more motivated to get a win here. 

Note that St. Peter's is just 26-48 ATS in their last 74 games when listed as a home dog and a mere 9-22 ATS in their last 31 home games vs teams who shoot 45% or better from the field. Take Monmouth! 

3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Eastern Illinois +

I like the value here with the Panthers catching points against the Governors. While Austin Peay has the better overall record, both teams have losing records and I just don't see a lot that separates these teams. 

The big key here is the history of this series and the struggles of the home team. The road team has gone an impressive 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings in the series and the underdog has covered 11 of the last 12. Take Eastern Illinois! 

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Fairfield +

I really like the value here with the Stags as an underdog against Manhattan. Fairfield was the consensus favorite to win the MAAC this season, as they returned 4 starters, including a legit conference of the year candidate in senior guard Tyler Nelson. While the Stags have started out just 6-6, the schedule has been tough, as they have faced off against the likes of Purdue and Houston and had just 5 home games. All that experience playing away from home will only help them here. 

Manhattan is just 5-7, despite playing a much softer schedule than Fairfield. That was with the Jaspers starting the year out 2-0. They have won just 3 times in their last 7 games and are simply outclassed here. Note that last year Fairfield dominated both meetings, winning 78-49 at home and 97-79 at Manhattan (3-point dog in that one as well). 

The Stags are also 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games after playing 2 straight as a home favorite and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs a team with a winning record. Take Fairfield! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG  on Eastern Kentucky +

I like the value here with the Colonels as a big road dog against the Eagles. Eastern Kentucky has started out just 6-8, but have played a tough schedule with true road games against the likes of Ole Miss, Western Kentucky, Oregon State, Northern Kentucky, Marshall and Jacksonville State. They were double-digit dogs in each of those games and are 6-2 against the rest of their schedule. 

Tennessee Tech is a quality team, but are simply getting too much respect here. Not a big surprise as the Eagles have been overvalued quite a bit of late. In their last 6 games Tennessee Tech is 0-5-1 ATS. It's also worth noting that the Colonels returned 4 starters from last year's team, which swept the season season series against the Eagles, which included a 79-66 win at Tennessee Tech as a 4-point dog. Take Eastern Kentucky! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Towson +

I like the value here with the Tigers catching what I feel is too many pints against the Cougars. Towson is simply undervalued here off back-to-back road losses to Pittsburgh and Oakland, while Charleston is overvalued coming in having won 7 of their last 8. 

This is a big time revenge game for the Tigers, who were knocked out of last year's CAA Tournament by the Cougars. These two teams have played a very similar strength of schedule to this point. Defensively both teams have played well, but the edge here goes to Towson on the offensive side of the ball. The Tigers are averaging 75.5 ppg vs teams that allow 74.2 ppg, while the Cougars are scoring just 69.5 ppg vs teams that allow 74 ppg. 

Charleston covered last time out and that's a good sign to go against them, as the Cougars are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a cover. Tigers are 10-4-2 ATS last 16 games overall and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Towson! 

5* NCAAB *CAA* GAME OF THE MONTH on Drexel +

I like the value here with the Dragons catching a decent number here on the road against the Phoenix. Drexel comes in at just 6-7, but I've liked what I've seen from this team in non-conference play. They beat Houston 84-80 on a neutral court as a 14-point dog and won at LaSalle as a 12-point dog. They also lost by just 3-points in a true road game against Temple as a 16-point dog. 

Elon has started out 8-5, but most have their success has come against a soft schedule. The Phoenix did pull off an upset in their last game against Indiana State, but are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. This is also Elon's first home game after playing 4 straight on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games after playing 3 or more consecutive road games. 

It's also worth noting that the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Dragons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Elon. Take Drexel! 

5* NCAAF Bowl (Cotton) GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -

I don't just think the Buckeyes will beat USC, I'm confident they win here by double-digits. Ohio State is hands down the best team that didn't make the playoffs and I'm not buying this team isn't going to show up for this game because they got left out after winning the Big Ten Championship. The fact that the opponent here is USC will be more than enough to get the Buckeyes full attention. 

Coaching is a big factor in these bowl games and there's no question Ohio State has the coaching edge here with Urban Meyer over the Trojans Clay Helton. Meyer knows how to get his teams prepared for bowl games, as he's got a 10-3 record over his coaching career. Yes, they laid an egg in last year's playoff game against Clemson, losing 31-0, but I believe that only adds fuel to the fire. 

For me this comes down to the line of scrimmage and I think the Buckeyes will dominate on both sides. Ohio State held opposing teams to just 3 yards/carry and 1.6 yards/carry less than what their opponents averaged. On the flip side of this, the Buckeyes averaged 5.9 yards/carry on offense, which was 1.6 yards/carry more than what their opponents typically gave up. I don't think there's any questioning their ability to run the ball after they put up 238 yards on Wisconsin and 226 yards on Michigan in their last two games. It reminds me a lot of USC's game against Notre Dame, where they were outmanned at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and the Buckeyes are better than the Irish. Take Ohio State! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Hawks +

I like the value here with Atlanta catching double-digits against the Raptors on Friday. Toronto has hit a bit of a rough patch, as they have dropped 2 straight, including a loss at Dallas as a 5.5-point favorite. The Hawks have won their last two and have been a covering machine of late. Atlanta has covered 3 straight and 11 of their last 14. 

It's also worth pointing that the Hawks have been a great team to back away from home against high-scoring teams like the Raptors. Atlanta is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams that are scoring 110 or more points/game. 

We also have a strong system in play based on the Raptors 112-78 win at Atlanta the last time these two teams played. Underdogs that are revenging a home loss of 10 or more, who are coming off an upset win as a dog are 82-44 (65%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Atlanta! 

5* NCAAB *MAAC* GAME OF THE MONTH on Rider +

I love the value here with the Broncs as a short road dog against the Golden Griffins. Rider has been a pleasant surprise early on and come in off an impressive 71-70 win at Penn State as a 15-point dog. This is also a team that won at George Washington as a 5.5-point dog and only lost by 4 on the road against Providence as a 14-point dog. 

Canisius' strength of schedule doesn't even come close to comparing to the Broncs. The biggest dog the Golden Griffins have been all season is a 9.5-point dog at Buffalo. I just don't see Canisius being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Rider is averaging 82 ppg and scoring roughly 10 ppg more than what their opponents allow. The Griffins average just 70.8 ppg and are scoring less than what their opponents allow. 

I think Canisius is getting some respect here with this line because they come in off a 14-point win at Robert Morris, but the Griffins are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games off a road win by 10 or more points. Take Rider! 

4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on San Francisco +

I like the value here with the Dons catching points against the Toreros tonight. San Francisco returned just about everyone from last year's 20-win team and could push into the Top 3 of the WCC this season. San Diego also brings a lot back from last year, but they went just 13-18 and still have a ton of ground to make up to catch the top teams in this conference. 

I think we are getting value here because of the Toreros hot start, as they posted a 9-3 record in non-confernce, while the Dons went just 8-5. However, I've been a lot more impressed with San Francisco, who has played the tougher schedule. Last time out the Dons showed just how good they can be with a 66-64 upset win over Nevada as a 12.5-point dog and that Nevada team is a legit NCAA Tournament team. They also lost by just 18 against an elite Arizona State team on the road. I'll take the points here, but I fully expect the Dons to win this game outright. Take San Francisco! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Edwardsville +

I like the value here with the Cougars catching big number against the Governors in Thursday's college hoops action. These two teams were both picked to finish middle of the pack in the Ohio Valley and so far there's not a lot that has separated these two teams early on. SIU-Edwardsville is 4-7, while Austin Peay is 5-7 and both teams have played roughly the same strength of schedule to this point. 

I believe we are getting value here with the Cougars based on how these two teams performed against the spread in non-conference. Edwardsville went a miserable 1-8 ATS in their 9 lined games, while Austin Peay posted a 6-2 ATS mark in their 8 line games. 

History is definitely on the Cougars side in this one, as the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the underdog has gone 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take SIU-Edwardsville! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER  on St. Peter's +

I like the value here with the Peacocks at basically a pick'em on the road against the Stags. This line is begging for you to take Fairfield, who many had pegged as the top team coming into the season in the MAAC, but the Stags haven't been all that impressive early on. Fairfield went just 5-6 in non-conference play and are just 3-6 over their last 9 games, which includes a 84-92 loss to Jacksonville as a 9-point favorite.

St. Peter's went 6-5 carrying over some of that momentum that saw them close out last year on a 11-1 run in route to winning the CIT postseason title. The Peacocks have won 2 straight and 5 of 7 overall. I think we saw a glimpse of the potential of this team when they went on the road early and only lost by 9 as a 18-point dog to Northwester. 

Peacocks have been an excellent team to back away from home against quality opponents, as they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs a team with a winning home record. They are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games. Take St. Peter's! 

4* Military Bowl ATS HEAVY HITTER  on Navy +

I like the value here with the Midshipmen at basically a pick'em at home against Virginia in the Military Bowl. Navy is simply not getting enough respect here, especially given that this game is being played on their home field, which is a big advantage in these bowl games. 

The perception is that these triple-option teams are at a disadvantage in bowl games, as their opponents have ample amounts of time to prepare for their unique offensive attack. What gets overlooked is just how much the opponents hate preparing and playing these triple-option attacks. It's also worth pointing out that Navy has been a covering machine of late in bowl games, as they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. That includes a trip to this same bowl in 2015, where they knocked off Pitt 44-28 as a mere 3-point favorite. 

Virginia surprised a lot of people by getting to a bowl game this year, as they were coming off a 2-10 season in 2016 and picked by many to finish in the basement of the ACC. While they had some nice wins, including a 42-23 victory over Boise State, for the most part they struggled against the better teams they faced and it's also important to note they went just 1-5 over their final 6 games. 

This is also not a great matchup for Virginia. While the Cavaliers finished a respectable 36th in total defense, giving up just 357.9 ypg, they were just 82nd in the country at stopping the run, allowing 178.3 ypg. I just don't see them stopping this Midshipmen rushing attack, that rushed for an average of 343 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry. Virginia also had their struggles offensively, as they were 126th in rushing (98.8 ypg). If they don't throw it well, their defense is going to be on the field the entire game and that's just not a recipe for success against the Midshipmen. Take Navy! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Pacers -

I like the value here with Indiana laying what I feel is a short number at home against the Mavericks. The Pacers simply didn't have it last night in Detroit, as they got annihilated 107-83. The good news for Indiana is the lopsided score allowed them to limit their starters minutes, as not a single one of the five starters played more than 26 minutes. That leaves little doubt in my mind that we are going to get a big time effort here from the Pacers at home. 

Dallas on the other hand comes in off an impressive 98-93 home win over the Raptors as a 6-point dog. I just think it's asking a lot of this team to bounce back from that huge victory with another big effort on the road playing on no rest. Keep in mind the Mavericks haven't won back-to-back games since Thanksgiving and are a miserable 2-14 on the road this season. 

Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs a bad team like Dallas, who has won fewer than 40% of their games and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Take Indiana! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rhode Island -

I got no problem laying the big number here with the Rams at home against Florida Gulf Coast. Rhode Island is one of the better teams that no one knows about. They brought back 4 seniors, including a legit NBA talent in guard E.C. Matthews. Their only 3 losses have come against the likes of Nevada, Virginia and Alabama and two of those were without Matthews, who missed 6 games before returning for the last two.

With him on the floor, the Rams should have little to no problem winning here by 15+ points. The Eagles are just 7-7 and come in having gone just 1-5 in their last 6 games. Last time out they were able to keep it within 10 at Wichita State as a 16.5-point dog and I believe that's created some line value here. Take Rhode Island! 

4* Pinstripe Bowl ATS NO BRAINER on Iowa -

I think we are getting some great value here with the Hawkeyes laying less than a field goal against the Eagles. Iowa has had a really rough stretch in bowl games, as they have lost 5 straight postseason games after starting out 6-3 under head coach Kirk Ferentz.

I believe a big reason for the Hawkeyes recent struggles is they have consistently been picked for bigger bowl games because of how well their fans travel and it's forced them to play a much tougher opponent than them. Note that all 5 losses have come with Iowa being the underdog, as their last 5 opponents in bowl games have been Florida, Stanford, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. 

No disrespect to Boston College, but this is finally an opponent that is on the Hawkeyes level and one I believe that Iowa matches up very well against. The Eagles are a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success offensively, but that plays right into the strength of the Iowa defense.

At the same time, the Hawkeyes are a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success offensive and BC finished the year ranked 101st in the country vs the run, giving up 198.4 ypg, while giving up 5.0 yards/carry (first time since 2012 they have allowed more than 4.0 yards/carry). The Hawkeyes should own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that should be more than enough for them to win here by at least a field goal. Take Iowa! 

5* Independence Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Southern Miss +

I absolutely love the value here with the Golden Eagles catching a big number against the Seminoles in the Independence Bowl on Wednesday. This is simply too many points given the circumstances for Florida State, which watched head coach Jimbo Fisher jump ship for Texas A&M at the end of the season. I just don't see the Seminoles being motivated for this contest, especially not to the point where they win in blowout fashion. 

All you have to do is look at the injury report for FSU to see how little interest there is in playing this game, as there's a laundry list of players who are questionable and several others, including star defensive player Derwin James that aren't going to take the field. The defense that kept them competitive is simply missing too many players and when you add in the lack of motivation, I think Southern Miss is going to move the ball with ease here. 

The other big key here is this Seminoles offense is not very good. Sure they put up 42 in their final game against ULM, but the Warhawks have one of the worst defenses in the country. FSU finished 83rd in rushing (150.8 ypg) and 92nd in passing (192.8 ypg). Southern Miss comes in with one of the most underrated defenses in the country. The Golden Eagles were 28th against the run (132.2 ypg) and 26th vs the pass (189.8 ypg). Not only do I think they can keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them win this game outright. Take Southern Miss! 

3* Quick Lane Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Duke - 

I like the value we are getting here with the Blue Devils laying less than a touchdown against Northern Illinois in the Quick Lane Bowl. Duke got off to a red-hot 4-0 start to the season, which included a 41-17 blowout win over Northwestern. They would then proceed to lose 6 straight and sitting at 4-6 needed to win their final 2 just to become bowl eligible. They did just that. Knocking off Georgia Tech 43-20 at home and closing out the year with a 31-23 win at Wake Forest. 

I like the Blue Devil's chances of carrying over that momentum here in their bowl game against the Huskies. While Northern Illinois posted an 8-4 record, I just don't think this is that good of a team. Sure they knocked off Nebraska in non-confernece, but that turned out to be a pretty bad Cornhuskers team. The MAC was also way down this year and it's shown in bowl play so far with conference champ, Toledo, losing 34-0 to Appalachian State. East Division winner Akron lost 50-3 to FAU in the Boca Raton Bowl and Central Michigan, who posted a 6-2 mark in MAC play lost 37-14 to Wyoming in the Idaho Potato Bowl. 

On paper these look like to very similar teams with sub-par offenses and really good defenses, but when you factor in the much tougher strength of schedule for Duke it's clear that the Blue Devils are the superior side. Take Duke! 

4* Steelers/Texans MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Texans +

I think we are getting a great price here on the Texans at home in Monday's Christmas Day showdown against the Steelers. I know Houston played is coming off an ugly 7-45 loss at Jacksonville, but that wasn't a huge surprise given how limited the Texans are offensively and how good the Jaguars are defensively. I expect a much more motivated Houston team to take the field at home in a prime time game. 

The biggest thing here isn't this is a horrible spot for the Steelers, who are coming off about as painful a loss as you can have in their 24-27 defeat at home to the Patriots, which likely cost them the No. 1 seed in the AFC. On top of that, they lost star wide out Antonio Brown to a calf injury. While they played well without him against New England, that's a massive loss. Brown was playing at an MVP level this season. At the same time, this Pittsburgh offense has a history of underperforming on the road (almost a TD less per game on the road compared to at home this season) and I think it could be in for a long day without Brown in this one. 

Steelers are also just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points, while the Texans are a solid 22-10 ATS in their last 32 when coming off back-to-back games where they scored 17 or fewer points. Take Houston! 

3* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Giants +

I just think there's too much value here with New York in this one. I know it's been a miserable season for the Giants, but I liked how they came out and competed last week against the Eagles. Most importantly, the offense finally showed us something, scoring 29 points with over 500 yards of total offense against a very good Eagles defense. Eli Manning had his best game of the season by far, throwing for 434 yards and 3 scores.

Arizona simply has no business laying more than a field goal in this matchup. While the Cardinals will get back Drew Stanton at quarterback, it's just a minor upgrade over Blaine Gabbert in my opinion. Stanton takes over an offense that hasn't scored a TD in 10 quarters and I wouldn't be shocked if they failed to score one here against a Giants team that I think has some new life now that they have parted ways with McAdoo.

We also have a strong system in play backing the Giants. Road underdogs who are a bad team that's being outscored by 4+ points/game on the season are 227-149 (60%) ATS after a loss by 6-points or less since 1983. Take New York! 

4* NFL Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Jags -

I like the value here with the Jaguars laying a short number on the road against the 49ers. Jacksonville has been one of the big surprises of the season, as they have already locked up their first playoff appearance in 10 years. They come into this game on an absolute roll, as they have won 3 straight  and 7 of their last 8 overall. 

Early in the year this team was winning games just with their defense, but that's no longer the case. Blake Bortles has been playing at an MVP level over the last few weeks and the Jaguars have scored 30, 30 and 45 points over their last 3 games. 

I think a big reason we are getting value here with the Jaguars is the 49ers come in having won 3 straight and it's all come after Jimmy Garoppolo has taken over the starting quarterback job. Garoppolo has put up some great numbers in his 3 starts, but it's come against the Bears, Texans and Titans. 

The problem here with Garoppolo and the 49ers is that their offense has really relied on his ability to throw the ball and attacking this Jaguars defense through the air is not a recipe for success. Jacksonville's defense is the real deal and they have completely shutdown opposing passing attacks, as they lead the NFL, allowing just 168.9 ypg, which is 30 yards better than the next best team. I just don't think San Francisco will be able to score enough to keep this within the number. Take Jacksonville -4! 

4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bengals +

The last two games for Cincinnati have been a complete embarrassment to the players and franchise. They lost at home to the Bears 7-33 and then followed that up with a 7-34 loss at Minnesota. Couple of things to note about those two performances. The first is the game against Chicago was a major letdown spot after their crushing loss to the Steelers at home the week before, which all but eliminated them from playoff contention. Then last week prior to their game against the Vikings it was reported that head coach Marvin Lewis was going to resign and I don't think it sat well with players that they had to learn of the news via the media. 

With all that behind them, I think we are going to see a much better effort from Cincinnati in what will be the final home game for Lewis. The players might not like him leaving, but he's done a lot to get this franchise back on the map and I think they will want his final home game to be one to remember. 

Not only are we seeing Cincinnati undervalued because of their recent showings, but the books have certainly inflated this line on the Lions, as the public will look to back Detroit, given they are the only team with something to play for. Detroit might still be in the playoff hunt, but I'm just not sold on this team being a threat to make the playoffs in the NFC and it would be typical Lions fashion for them to lay an egg here on the road. 

Keep in mind Detroit is a mere 9-25 ATS in their last 34 road games as a favorite of 7 points or less and 9-27 ATS in their last 36 road games when they come in having won 2 or more straight games. Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 30+ points and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Cincinnati! 

5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jets +

I think we are getting excellent value here with the Jets catching a touchdown at home against the Chargers on Sunday. The public loves to focus all their attention on the teams that are still in the playoff mix and as a result I think we are seeing a drastically inflated line on Los Angeles here. While the Chargers are mathematically still alive, their playoff hopes all but came to an end last week in their loss to the Chiefs, who will likely wrap up the AFC West with a win over the Dolphins. 

At the same time, I don't think it's going to be as easy as people think for LA to bounce back off that crushing loss to Kansas City, especially on the road. Keep in mind in mind this is their second straight on the road and a dreaded spot for West Coast teams playing on the East Coast in an early game. 

I know the Jets are down to backup QB Bryce Petty, but this is a New York team that has shown a tremendous amount of fight this season and have been a much more competent team at home, where they are 4-3, compared to 1-6 on the road. Not only do I think the Jets can keep this close enough to cover, but I actually give them a decent shot at winning this game outright. 

Jets are a solid 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games dating back to last season and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss. Chargers on the other hand are a mere 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and are now just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of December. Take New York! 

5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans +

I absolutely love the value here with Tennessee catching a touchdown at home against the Rams. The perception on LA couldn't be much higher right now, as they just laid an absolute beating on the road against Seattle last Sunday, crushing their division rivals 42-7. That win put the Rams 2-games up on the Seahawks for the NFC West title and all they need to do is win one of their final two games (host 49ers in Week 17) or have have Seattle lose one of their final two (play at Dallas this week). Either way, this is not a must-win game for the Rams and with them coming off that huge win, I think they are primed for a letdown here in what will be their second straight road game. 

I know the Titans come in having lost back-to-back games, but those both game on the road and they were a couple breaks away from winning both of those games. What you have to keep in mind with Tennessee is they are a different team at home. The Titans are 5-1 at Nissan Stadium compared to just 3-5 on the road. It's been night and day offensive for Tennessee offensively, as they are averaging 26 ppg at home compared to a mere 17.5 ppg on the road. This is also a must-win game for the Titans, who need to win to just have a shot at making the playoffs. 

The big key here is I think the Titans will be able to slow down this Rams offensive attack. While LA puts up big numbers both on the ground and through the air, their offense is at its best when they can establish the run. That won't be easy against Tennessee. The Titans feature one of the leagues top run defenses and are giving up just 74 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry on the ground at home. I think all this adds up to a closely contested battle and one that I wouldn't be shocked if the Titans won outright. Take Tennessee! 

3* NFL Undervalued UNDERDOG on Falcons +

I like the value here with the Falcons catching almost a touchdown against division rival New Orleans on Sunday. These two teams just played in Atlanta in Week 14, which the Falcons prevailed 20-17 despite Matt Ryan having one of his worst games with just 221 yards and 3 interceptions. I would expect a much better showing here from Ryan and wouldn't be shocked if Atlanta pulled off the upset.

Keep in mind that Atlanta was a 3-point favorite at home against the Saints, which based off that line means New Orleans should be a similar 3-point home favorite in this one. I think that just shows how overvalued the Saints are right now. It's also worth noting that in the last 11 meetings in the series, only once has New Orleans managed to beat the Falcons by more than 6 points and that was a mere 10-point win back in 2015. When these two teams square off, more times than not it's a closely contested game that comes down to a play or two in the 4th quarter. 

Falcons did play on MNF last week, which for some teams is a negative, but they are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 when playing on Sunday after playing their previous game on a Monday. Falcons are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Atlanta! 

4* Colts/Ravens NFL VEGAS INSIDER on Ravens - 

You won't see me laying this many points often in the NFL, especially early on in the season. I think you have to handicap these big spreads a little differently this late in the season, as you have some teams like Baltimore with everything to play for and other teams like the Colts who have little to play for. You can't just blindly go against teams who are out of the playoffs, as some teams do keep fighting to the end. Indianapolis isn't one of those teams in my opinion. 

This has been a lost season from the start for the Colts, who have had to play the entire year without star quarterback Andrew Luck. They come in having lost 5 straight and I just get the feeling that this team is ready for the season to be over. 

It's also worth noting that the Ravens are not a team to overlook an opponent and the spot sets up well for them to not only win but win big. Baltimore has one of the best defenses in the NFL and are allowing just 16.5 ppg at home this season. They should have no problem shutting down this Colts offense, which has now gone 5 straight games where they have scored 17 or fewer points. The other big key here is that while the Ravens are limited offensively, this is a defense they should be able to exploit, as Indy is giving up 29.9 ppg and 6.1 yards/play on the road this season. Take Baltimore!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Colorado State -

I like the value we are getting here with the Rams laying single-digits at home against the 49ers. While Colorado State is just 6-6, a big reason for that is their schedule, which has had them go up against the likes of FSU, Colorado, Arkansas and Oregon. The big key here is that all 6 of their losses have either come on a neutral site or in a true road game, as they are a perfect 6-0 at home. 

Long Beach State comes in at 5-9 and while they too have played a tough schedule, they are simply not on the same level as the Rams. The 49ers have really struggled on the road, where they are 3-9 and getting outscored by 13.7 ppg. Last time out Long Beach State was embarrassed in a 42-point (60-102) loss at Michigan State and that was on Thursday, so they are playing their 2nd big road game in just 3 days in the thin air of Colorado. On top of that, the 49ers are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games off a loss. Take Colorado State! 

4* Armed Forces Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -

I like the value here with the Aztecs laying less than a touchdown against the Black Knights in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday. I think this is a perfect matchup for San Diego State, as they are very familiar with how to stop the triple-option attack given they play Air Force in the MWC. The Aztecs have owned these one-dimensional offenses, posting a 13-2 record straight up and a 12-3 mark against the spread. 

This year shouldn't be any different, as San Diego State is once again stout on the defensive side of the ball. The Aztecs ranked 9th in the country against the run, giving up just 110.4 ypg and only allowed 3.5 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, San Diego State is also a team that really likes to run the football, as they were 11th in rushing (252.3 ypg) compared to just 118th in passing (157.9 ypg). Big key here is they at least offer a threat of throwing, plus they will be facing an Army defense that was just 68th vs the run, allowing 166.1 ypg. Take San Diego State! 

3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Alabama -

I like the value here with the Crimson Tide laying a short number against the Longhorns. While not a true home game for Alabama, it's going to certainly feel like it, as this game is being played just a short drive from their campus in Birmingham at Legacy Arena. Both teams are off to a solid 8-3 start, but I've really liked what I have seen from this Crimson Tide team. They can really get after you both inside and out on the offensive side of the ball and that balance has them averaging just under 80 ppg. Texas doesn't punch near the fire-power on offense and I think that with this being on the road the Longhorns are going to struggle to keep pace. 

Note this is not a spot where Texas has fared well. The Longhorns are just 10-27 in their last 37 neutral court games as a dog of 6-points or less. They are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 away from home after two straight games that went under the total. Take Alabama! 

5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Gonzaga -

I like the value here with the Bulldogs as a short road favorite against the Aztecs on Thursday. San Diego State has been a great program for a long-time, but took a big step back last year in the first season without Steve Fisher at the helm. While they are off to a respectable 7-3 start a big reason for that has been the schedule.

They do have a win over Georgia on a neutral court, but they also lost by 22 at Arizona State, by 7 on a neutral court to Washington State and most recently a 62-63 loss at home to Cal as a 16.5-point favorite. 

Gonzaga is loaded once again and have started out 10-2 with their only losses coming against big time powers in Florida and Villanova. While the home court edge might help the Aztecs make this competitive early, I look for the Bulldogs to pull away and win this one comfortably. Take Gonzaga! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Buffalo +

I like the value here with the Bulls as a double-digit dog against the Aggies. Buffalo comes in with a respectable 7-4 record and has shown well against the two big time opponents they have played. The Bulls lost by just 6-points in a neutral site game against Cincinnati as a 16-point dog and last time out they lost by just 7 as a 10.5-point dog in a true road game at Syracuse. 

While Texas A&M is off to an impressive 10-1 start and clearly the better team, I think this is a clear letdown spot for the Aggies, who are playing their final non-conference game and have a long  8-day layoff before starting SEC play. Another big factor here is the home court edge isn't as strong this time of year, as you not only have people busy with the holidays, but the majority of the students aren't on campus over Christmas break. I think it's enough to allow the Bulls to keep this a lot closer than expected. Take Buffalo! 

5* Gasparilla Bowl NO LIMIT Top Play on Temple -

I like the value here with the Owls laying a touchdown against the Golden Panthers in the Gasparilla Bowl. FIU had a great turnaround in their first season under Butch Davis, going 8-4 after finishing at 4-8 last year, but I also think it has the Owls getting too much respect here. A big reason for the turnaround with FIU is they played a couple of cupcakes in UMass and Alcorn State in non-conference play and C-USA was way down this year outside of FAU, who they lost to by 28 points. 

Temple only went 6-6 in the first year under new head coach Geoff Collins, but were a much better team down the stretch, as they closed out the year winning 3 of their last 4, which included a 34-26 win over Navy and 43-22 victory at Tulsa in the regular-season finale. A big reason this team got things going is Frank Nutile took over as the starting quarterback. He threw for over 200 yards in each of his 5 starts and figures to be in store for a big game here against a FIU defense that ranked 94th in the country against the pass, giving up 242.8 ypg. The Panthers also were 79th against the run (173.8 ypg), so the Owls should also have balance with their offensive attack. I just don't see FIU being able to keep pace in this one. Give me Temple -7! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Southern Miss +

I like the value here with the Golden Eagles as a massive road underdog against the Seminoles on Thursday afternoon. I just don't think we are going to see an all that motivated Florida State team here, as this is their final non-conference matchup before getting 9-days off. You also have to keep in mind that with students off for Christmas break and this not being a big time opponent, they aren't going to have that same home court edge. 

Southern Miss isn't on the Seminoles level, but do come in having won 4 straight, including an impressive 89-71 win over Troy as a 3-point underdog. They also showed well earlier this season in a true road game at Michigan, losing by just 14 as a 24 points dog. The big thing I like here with the Golden Eagles is they get after it defensively, as they are only giving up 64.9 ppg. Look for a lot closer game than the books are expecting. Take Southern Miss! 

3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Utah -

I like the value here with the Utes at home against the Demons from Northwestern State. Utah is a bit undervalued right now, as they come in off a 12-point loss at BYU and have lost 2 of their last 3 overall. They also are expected to be without Donnie Tillman. Even without Tillman, this team should have no problem winning here by 25+ points over the Demons, who are in a brutal spot here playing on the road with no rest after last night's ugly 68-105 loss at Oklahoma, where the Sooners shot 59% from the field. This is also a team that lost by 46 to both Texas and SMU. Take Utah! 

4* NBA Situational UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Hawks +

The betting public is all over the Pacers here as a short road favorite against the Hawks, but I like Atlanta to not only cover but win this game outright. The Hawks come in off an impressive 110-104 win at home over the Heat last time out as a 1.5-point favorite and are now 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games, as they continue to get undervalued by the books.

Indiana is a quality team, but have lost 3 of their last 4 and last time out suffered a crushing 111-112 loss at home to the Celtics, where they basically gave the game away. Now they are on the road playing what will be their 3rd game in 4 days in a major letdown spot. Take Atlanta! 

4* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Seton Hall - 

I don't think the books have set the bar high enough here. Seton Hall is coming in off an upset loss at Rutgers as a 8.5-point favorite and are going to be highly motivated to get back on track. That was just the second loss of the season for the Pirates. The first came in a heartbreaking 74-75 neutral court loss to Rhode Island and they came back in their next game and rolled Vanderbilt 72-59 as a 6.5-point favorite. 

I don't think it's going to take a lot here for Seton Hall to win by 20+ points, as this is not nearly as good a Wagner team as their 7-2 record would suggest. The Seahawks haven't played a lot of top teams. The one step up game they had was road contest at Missouri, which they lost by 44-points as a similar 19.5-point dog to what we see them at here. I expect a similar outcome here with this one well in hand early. Take Seton Hall! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cavs -

This is simply too good a price to pass up on Cleveland. The Cavs have lost just once in their last 19 games, as they are on ridiculous 18-1 run. With this being basically a pick'em with the Cavs laying less than 3, I think you have to roll the dice with Cleveland. They have already beat the Bucks twice this season, including a 116-97 win in their previous visit to Milwaukee. 

The Bucks are also not playing great basketball right now. They have lost 3 straight and in their last home game they lost outright 109-115 to the Bulls as a 8.5-point favorite. I think a big key here is that this game is the only one being nationally televised on NBA TV and that should be enough motivation for LeBron and company to get the win. Take Cleveland! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG  on Buffalo +

I like the value here with the Bulls as a double-digit dog against the Orange. While not a huge rivalry, these are two teams from the same state of New York. I think that's a big motivator edge here for Buffalo, who would love nothing more than to upset Syracuse on their home floor. As for the Orange, I don't think they are getting anywhere close to as excited about playing this game and I actually think they could be in for a letdown after their big overtime win on the road over Georgetown on Saturday.    

Keep in mind this is a Bulls team that is expected to compete for the MAC title. They have a big-time play-maker in CJ Massinburg, who is averaging 20 ppg and 8 rpg. He's not the only scoring threat, as they have 4 active players that are averaging in double-figures. They could also be adding another big weapon in Missouri transfer Wes Clark, who hasn't been eligible to this point because of transfer rules. Either way, I think the Bulls give the Orange a scare here and keep this well within the number. Take Buffalo! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER  on Quinnipiac +

I like the value here with the Bobcats as a decently priced road dog against the Dragons. While Quinnipiac is just 3-7 and Drexel comes in at 5-6, the Bobcats have played the tougher schedule up to this point and I simply don't see as big a game between these two teams as this line would suggest. The Dragons have been hit hard with injuries this year. Only 4 players have played in all 11 games this season and they have 4 guys out tonight. 

Bobcats have also been great in this spot, going 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. At the same time, the Dragons are a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 off a loss and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games following 3 straight on the road. Take Quinnipiac! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kansas -

It's been a rough stretch here for the Jayhawks who followed up back-to-back losses against Washington and Arizona State with a mere 1-point win on the road over Nebraska as a 12-point favorite. It's still not enough to keep me from laying this big number here with Kansas at home against the Mavericks. Winning my more than this spread at home wouldn't be out of the ordinary for the Jayhawks. They have a 38-point win at home over Toledo, 43-point win over Oakland, 43-point win over Texas Southern, 34-point win over South Dakota St and 36-point win over Tennessee State. 

Nebraskas-Omaha comes in off back-to-back wins, but are not a good team. Earlier this season they lost by 33-points at TCU. With the Jayhawks pissed off with their recent play, I think the Mavericks are in for an absolute beating at Allen Fieldhouse tonight. Take Kansas! 

4* Chargers/Chiefs NFL ATS NO BRAINER on Chiefs +

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Kansas City as an underdog at home to the Chargers. The stakes couldn't be much higher for this one. The winner takes complete control of the AFC West, while the loser would be sitting at 7-7 and needing to likely win out just to have a chance at making the playoffs as a Wild Card. This is going to feel like a playoff game for both teams and I simply don't think the Chiefs home field edge is getting enough respect here. This is one of the toughest places to play in general and Arrowhead can be electric in these types of games. 

I also think it's huge that Kansas City is coming into this game off not just a win but an impressive win at home against the Raiders in what was also a huge game for this team. The Chiefs dominated their rivals from Oakland, taking a 26-0 lead into the 4th quarter. It could have been a lot worse, as KC missed some golden opportunities in the red zone and had to settle for field goals. They scored on 5 straight possessions to start the game if you ignore the drive right before the half where there was only a minute left and they ran out the clock. Keep in mind that was an equally big game for Oakland, as both teams were sitting at 6-6. 

I think that's the kind of performance that could propel them back to the form that had them start out 5-0. You also can't ignore the success that KC has had against the Chargers team. They beat them by 14 in LA earlier this season and have won 7 straight overall. It's also worth noting the Chiefs haven't lost a home division game since Week 2 of the 2015 seasons. Take Kansas City! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Marshall -

I like the value here with Marshall as a short home favorite against the Bobcats. The Thundering Herd come in having won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. The most recent was an impressive 93-87 win at Toledo as a 5-point dog. As for Ohio, they are just 5-4 overall and have struggled away from home against better competition. Last time they were on the road was at Maryland on 12/7 and they lost by 25. Bobcats are giving up a staggering 85.2 ppg on the road and that's going to be a problem here against Marshall, as they come in averaging 89.3 ppg. 

Thundering Herd are 25-13 ATS in their last 38 as a favorite, 10-2 in their last 12 after playing a game as a road underdog and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. Take Marshall! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida -

I like the value here with the Gators laying a short number against Clemson on Saturday. While this is technically a neutral site game, it's going to feel like a home game for Florida, as it's being played in their home state at the BB&T Center. The Gators were able to right the ship after losing 3 straight with a 66-60 win over Cincinnati last time out. I look for this team to carry over that momentum here against the Tigers.

Gators are a solid 35-19 ATS in their last 54 games away from home when they come in having failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games. Clemson on the other hand is a mere 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Florida! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa +

I absolutely love the value here with UNI as a dog in Saturday's neutral site showdown against in-state rival ISU. My power rankings show that the Panthers should be the ones favored in this contest. The big reason they aren't is the fact that the Cyclones come in having won 7 straight, but the best wins for ISU are a neutral site game against Boise State and a home win over Iowa. The Cyclones are also way down this year, as they lost a ton from last year's team and are likely headed for a finish near the basement of the loaded Big 12. 

UNI is an experienced team that has proven itself against some of the big boys early. The Panthers are 8-2 with the two losses coming away from home against the likes of UNC and Villanova. They also have some impressive wins, knocking off the likes of SMU, NC State and UNLV. 

Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 12 against the Big, while ISU is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the Missouri Vally. Panthers are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on a neutral site and 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 off a win. Take Northern Iowa! 

5* Boise St/Oregon Las Vegas Bowl Top Play on Oregon -

A lot of people are taking Boise State here and I think a big reason for that is fact that Oregon head coach Willie Taggart left for Florida State. There's also concerns if star running back Royce Freeman will play. I believe it's created some great line value here with the Ducks, who I think are the far superior team. 

Oregon replaced Taggart with offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal, so there's no going to be no changes to how they run their offense. They also still have defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt around, so no changes on defense. Not having Taggart isn't going to hurt this team. In fact, I think it adds some incentive for them to play well for their new head coach. 

As far as Freeman is concerned, it would be great if he played, but at the same time I don't think they will miss him. Backup Kani Benoit was arguably more productive, though he only had 573 yards to Freeman's 1,475. Benoit has only got 80 carries, where Freeman has 244. Benoit actually averages 1.2 more yards/carry and at his current pace (10) would have close to 30 TD's if he produced the same over the same number of carries as Freeman. 

On top of that, it's sophomore quarterback Justin Herbert who is the most important offensive player for Oregon. This team averaged right around 50 ppg with him in the lineup and around 15 without him and that was over a 5-game stretch. Boise St has a solid defense, but it hasn't seen anything like the speed of the Ducks and I think they struggle to slow this high-powered offense down. 

As for the Broncos offense, I'm also not all that impressed with what I've seen and they could be without their best back in Alexander Mattison, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Either way I don't see Boise State keeping pace here. Take Oregon! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Celtics -

After going on an absolute tear, Boston has come down to earth a little bit here of late, as they are just 2-2 SU in their last 4 and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5. I think it's led to a great price to back the Celtics at home here against the Jazz. 

Utah has been up and down this season, but are not playing well right now. The Jazz have lost 4 straight with the most recent being a 100-103 loss at Chicago. Prior to that they lost by double-digits to both the Bucks and Rockets. This is now their 3rd straight on the road and while Boston is a legit opponent, I think upcoming games against the Cavs and Rockets are ones they will be more excited for. 

Celtics have also owned bad road teams at home, going 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record. They are also 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 off a straight up win. Take Boston! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Grand Canyon +

I like the value here with the Antelopes as a double-digit dog against the Broncos. Most people haven't even heard of Grand Canyon and will just assume they aren't any good, but this is a legit threat to make the NCAA Tournament, as they are considered the team to beat in the WAC. They are off to a strong 7-2 start and are locking down teams on the defensive side of the ball, giving up just 59 ppg (nearly 11 points less per game than what their opponents average). Boise is averaging 78 ppg, but that's come against teams that on average allow 75.7 ppg. I'm not saying the Antelopes will win this game outright, but it's not out of the question. Take Grand Canyon! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Ark-Little Rock +

I like the value here we are catching with the Trojans as a double-digit dog against the Braves. Arkansas-Little Rock comes in at just 2-7 while Bradley is sitting at 7-2 with a perfect 5-0 record at home. Most will just lay the points here with the Braves, but I think this is going to be a tough spot for them to play well. That's because Bradley hasn't played since 12/3 and this will be just their 3rd game in the last 18 days. It's just not the same practicing as it is playing in real games and I think we see a rusty Braves squad here, especially with the Trojans not being a team to get all that excited to play. Take Arkansas-Little Rock! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texas - 

I like the value here with the Longhorns laying what I feel is a short number here at home against the Wolverines. Michigan comes in with a respectable 8-3 record, but I haven't been all that impressed with this team. Last time out they got an extremely fortunate win and cover at home against UCLA, as they overcame a 15-point deficit to beat the Bruins 78-69 as a 7-point favorite in overtime. Wolverines have played 2 true road games and neither went well, as they lost by 15 at UNC and by 9 at Ohio State. 

Texas has started out 6-2 and are a team I think is flying under the radar in 2017. The Longhorns went just 11-22 in the first year under Shaka Smart. They are a vastly improved team and we have already seen evidence of that. Texas' only two losses are neutral site games against Duke and Gonzaga, who are both ranked in the Top 15. Keep in mind they had the Blue Devils on the ropes, as they blew a 16-point lead in an overtime loss. I not only think the Longhorns win here, but I could see this turning into a blowout. Take Texas! 

4* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Wizards - 

I like the value here with Washington as a short road favorite against the Nets. The Wizards have played better than expected while John Wall has been sidelined and I look for them to have no problem here putting away Brooklyn. One of the reasons Washington has continued to play so well is they are shooting lights out. They finished each of their last two games hitting 50% from the field. 

While the Wizards are clicking offensively, the Nets are struggling with their shot. Brooklyn only managed 89 points on 41% shooting in their last game against the Heat and have hit 44% or worse from the field in 3 of their last 4 overall. 

Wizards are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100+ points and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a double-digit loss at home and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take Washington! 

5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Charleston Southern -

I really like the value here with the Bucs as a short road favorite against the Bulldogs. Charleston Southern comes in having won 4 of their last 5, including a road win at Illinois State. South Carolina State is projected to finish near the bottom of the MEAC and are off to a poor 2-9 start with their only wins coming against the likes of Morris College and Brevard College. Last time out they lost to Furman by 29 points. This is simply a much bigger mismatch than the books are suggesting with this line. Take Charleston Southern! 

4* Patriots/Dolphins MNF ATS NO BRAINER on Dolphins +

This is simply too many points to pass up with on the Dolphins at home against a division rival, even when that opponent is the Patriots. No surprise here that New England is being way overvalued by the books in this one. The Patriots come in having won 8 straight and have covered the spread in each of their last 6. Just two weeks ago they beat these same Dolphins 35-17 as a massive 16.5-point home favorite. 

It all adds up to Miami getting way too points given the circumstances. The Dolphins will have Jay Cutler at quarterback, who missed the previous game. As for the Patriots, they have all kinds of guys banged up right now and arguably their biggest weapon in tight end Rob Gronkowski is suspended. The Dolphins are going to play their hearts out here and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Note that Brady and the Pats have lost 3 of their last 4 trips to Hard Rock Stadium. Take Miami! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bulls +

I like the value here with Chicago catching a decent number here at home against the Celtics. The Bulls are a miserable 5-20 on the season and it's no surprise given the rebuild they are undergoing. The thing is, some key injuries kept them from being all that competitive early on. They have got quite a few of those guys back and are starting to form some chemistry. Chicago has won 2 straight and are playing with a ton of confidence. 

As good as Boston has been playing, it won't be easy for the Celtics to take this Bulls team all that seriously. This also isn't a great spot for Boston, who just played in Detroit last night and will be playing their 3rd straight on the road in a span of just 4 days. Keep in mind that this is a team that gets their opponents best just about every time they take the floor. Wouldn't be shocked if the Bulls took control early and the Celtics found a way to win late. At the same time, I also wouldn't be surprised if Boston lost this game outright. Take Chicago! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kansas -

I like this Arizona State team, but my money is on the Jayhawks to not only win but to win convincingly on Sunday. Kansas started to get a big head after their 7-0 start and simply didn't come to play in their last game, which they lost 65-74 to Washington at the Sprint Center as a 22-point favorite. I believe that loss will have the Jayhawks locked in for this one. The Sun Devils are a perfect 8-0 on the season, but have had a pretty easy schedule and the big key here is that this will be their first true road game of the season. Take Kansas!   

5* NFL Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Panthers

I love the value here with Carolina getting points at home. The Panthers are one of the better teams in the league and simply shouldn't be a dog on their home field. Minnesota is simply overvalued right now, as the Vikings have won 8 straight and covered each of their last 7. 

The big key here is that this is a really tough spot for Minnesota, who will be playing their 3rd straight on the road. It doesn't come up a ton in the NFL, but teams tend to really struggle in that 3rd straight game away from home. I think that will be the case here for the Vikings, who are off two tough games on the road against the Lions and Falcons. 

Panthers come in off a loss at New Orleans, but had won and covered 4 straight prior to that. They have bounced back nicely, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Carolina! 

5* NCAAB Small Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Western Illinois +

I like the value here with the Leathernecks as a home dog against the Panthers. Western Illinois has been in this spot before, as they were just a 2-point home dog to IUPUI and they went onto to win that game outright 90-77. They also beat Eastern Illinois as a 4.5-point home dog. 

Milwaukee has started out 6-3, but this isn't a good team and are expected to finish near the basement of the Horizon League. Simply not the kind of team that should be laying points on the road against a quality team. 

The Leathernecks pack quite a punch offensively, as they come in averaging 76.6 ppg (83.2 at home), while shooting 51% from the field (54% at home). The Panthers haven't had a lot of success against teams like this, as they are a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 against a team that's shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Western Illinois! 

4* NBA Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Lakers +

I think the books have made a big error here with Saturday's NBA line on the Lakers and Hornets. Los Angeles shouldn't be getting this many points, as it should be much closer to a pick'em given the circumstances. The Lakers have struggled, but come in off an impressive road win over a good 76ers team and I look for them to build off that with another good showing against Charlotte. 

Hornets are a perfect team to fade here. Not only are they not playing well, but they are in a terrible scheduling spot after last night's overtime game against the Bulls. All 5 of Charlotte's starters logged big minutes and they are a deep team at the moment, as they got a few key guys banged up. I look for the Hornets to struggle to keep up with the fast pace of the Lakers and wouldn't be shocked if this turned into a blowout. Take Los Angeles! 

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Michigan -

I really like the value here with the Wolverines laying a short number at home against the Bruins. UCLA comes in at 7-1 and overvalued in my opinion. They have a couple of close wins over Georgia Tech and Wisconsin, but I don't think those wins are as impressive as people think. The best team they faced was Creighton and they lost by 11. Michigan isn't an elite team, but one that I think will give these Bruins a lot of problems. Big key here is that this will be UCLA's first true road game of the season.

Wolverines are a perfect 5-0 at home, where they are outscoring their opponents by 20 ppg. I look for Michigan's defense to be the difference here. Wolverines are allowing just 63.3 ppg against teams that average nearly 77, while the Bruins are allowing 75.1 against teams that average 76. UCLA is also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off a cover and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Michigan! 

4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on USC -

I think we are getting the Trojans at a great price here in basically a pick'em against the Sooners. While this game is technically being played on a neutral court at the Staples Center in LA, I expect it to feel like a home game with how close it is to USC's campus. On top of that, I think the Trojans are the far superior team in this matchup. 

Oklahoma comes in at 6-1 and a lot of people are taking notice of this team because of the play of freshman Trae Young, who leads the nation at 28.7 ppg and is 3rd in assists at 8.7 apg. I just think the Sooners rely too much on Young and it's going to be hard for them to compete with a loaded USC team that is strong top to bottom. Not to mention the Trojans will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after losing their last two. Nothing to be ashamed about with those two defeats, as one was against Texas A&M and the other a true road game at SMU. Trojans bounce back in a big way here. Take USC! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Toronto

I like the value here with the Raptors laying what I feel is a short number on the road against the Grizzlies. Toronto is a team that I think is flying under the radar right now. The Raptors have won 4 straight and are 10-3 in their last 13, yet no one is talking about them. They have been especially good on offense here of late, scoring 120 or more points in 3 straight games. I just don't see the Grizzlies being able to keep pace. Memphis has scored more than 95 points just once in their last 10 games and are a mere 1-12 over their last 13. The Grizzlies deserve to be a much bigger dog here, even with this game on their home court. 

Memphis is just 13-24 ATS in their last 37 against the Eastern Conference and a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games off a loss. Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a win more than 10 points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Toronto! 

3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on San Fran

I like the value here with Dons at home against a struggling Eastern Washington team. The Eagles have lost 4 of 5, with the most recent being a 19-point loss at Seattle. One of the reasons Eastern Washington is hitting a wall here is they have been on the road since they opened the season at home against Walla Walla. Since that game they have played 7 straight on the road, with 5 of those being true road games. 

San Francisco has won 4 of their last 6 and are fresh off a win over Central Arkansas at home. Unlike the Eagles, the Dons have enjoyed playing the majority of their games at home, as they have had just 1 game on the road. The Dons have been a great bet against bad teams, as they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take San Francisco! 

4* Saints/Falcons TNF ATS NO BRAINER on Falcons +

I really like the value here with Atlanta as a home dog against the Saints on Thursday Night Football. It does look like the books are adjusting to the bad line they put out and I would gladly back the Falcons at anything less than a field goal. 

We are simply seeing a big overreaction here to last week, where Atlanta failed in a similar spot at home as a 3-point favorite against the Vikings. The Falcons lost 9-14 to Minnesota, despite the offense playing about as poorly as they have all season. Atlanta had to settle for 3 field goals and were a miserable 1-10 of 3rd down. I expect a big bounce back effort here from that Falcons offense. I know the Saints' defense has been playing much better, but we often see the defense for the road team struggle in these Thursday games, as they just don't have the time to prepare on the short rest.

While a lot of teams hate these Thursday night games, the Falcons have played some of their best football in these matchups, as they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on Thursday. The Falcons are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs the NFC and 19-8 ATS in their last 27 after scoring less than 15 points. Take Atlanta! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Lakers +

I'll go against the public here and back the Lakers as a decently priced dog here in Thursday's TNT showdown with the 76ers. LA has lost 5 straight, but it's been a brutal stretch where 3 of the 5 were on the road and the two home games were against the likes of the Warriors and Rockets. I think it has the Lakers way undervalued here against Philadelphia. At the same time, the public is fully on board with this 76ers team now and are now way overvalued because of it. 

These two teams played in LA about a month ago. While the 76ers won that game, it was a mere 6-point win and that was with the Lakers shooting a horrible 38.5% from the field and Philadelphia hitting on 49% of their attempts. I think that we get a big enough effort here from LA to give the 76ers a scare and keep this within the number. 

Last time out Philadelphia lost 101-115 at home to a bad Suns team and the 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacific  +

I love the value here with the Tigers as a decently priced dog against the Aggies. Pacific went just 11-22 last year in the first season under head coach Damon Stoudamire. This should be a much improved team in 2017 and they are off to a strong 5-4 start and come in having won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall. 

The Tigers did lose to UC Davis at home in their second game of the season 58-62, which I think is playing into this line here. Pacific was a 4-point favorite in that game and based off that line you would only expect them to be around a 2-3 point dog on the road against the Aggies. I'll take my chances here with the Tigers getting their revenge, plus this is a great spot to fade UC Davis off their big upset win on the road over Washington State, where they won 81-67 as a 7.5-point dog.

Tigers are 32-15 ATS in their last 47 when revenging a loss as a home favorite, while the Aggies are just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home non-conference games. Take Pacific! 

4* NBA Sharp Action ATS NO BRAINER on Spurs -

I'm backing San Antonio here at home against the Heat on Wednesday, as I look for the Spurs to win here by double-digits. San Antonio has gotten off to a respectable 16-8 start given they haven't played a single game with their best player in Kawhi Leonard. The big key here is the Spurs haven't missed Leonard at all on their home floor, where they are a dominant 11-2 SU and 8-4 ATS on the season. 

Miami came in with big expectations after their strong finish last year, but are just 11-12 and come in having lost 3 of their last 4. The Heat will also be without one of their best players in Hassan Whiteside. I just don't think Miami is a team that's capable of competing at less than full strength on the road against a team like the Spurs. Take San Antonio! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Providence -

The Friars should have no problem here winning in blowout fashion over Brown at home. Providence comes in at 6-2 with their only two losses coming against a very good Minnesota team at home and a good Rhode Island team on the road. The most recent was that loss to the Rams and I think that will have the Friars not looking past the Bears and coming out with one of their best efforts. 

Brown simply isn't a good team. They were picked by most experts to finish near the basement of the Ivy League and are off to a 4-4 start with their only wins coming against J&W-Providence, Quinnipiac, Long Island and Bryant. They have ugly losses to to the likes of St Francis-NY, Stony Brook and Central Connecticut State. They also lost at Rhode Island by 24, which is a pretty clear sign of how big a gap we have here from the Friars to the Bears. Take Providence! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Delaware +

I like the value here with the Blue Hens as a home dog against the Bulls. Delaware comes in having lost their last 2, but are 4-4 on the season. The Blue Hens have experience with 4 returning starters, while also getting big time contributions from a couple of freshman in Kevin Anderson (12.3 ppg) and Ryan Allen (11.6 ppg). They are 2 of 5 players for Delaware that are averaging in double-figures. 

Buffalo is a team that a lot of people had picked to win the MAC East and I think it has them a bit overvalued here on the road. The Bulls just lost at home to St Bonaventure by 11 as a 1-point favorite. Buffalo lost their two best players and only returned 4 starters. That lack of experience will make it tough for them to win on the road here against a balanced Blue Hens offensive attack. Take Delaware!