4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Clemson -5 -115

I like the Tigers to win here easily at home against ACC rival Virginia Tech. Clemson lost a couple guys to ACL injuries that they hoped would help this year, but there's still plenty of talent on deck for the Tigers to build on last year's 9-9 finish in conference play. 

As for the Hokies, they are a team in major transition after losing an elite head coach in Buzz Williams. Not only that, Williams didn't leave new head coach Mike Young a whole lot to work with. Hokies lost 4 starters and have to replace their top 5 scores from last year.

It's also worth noting that Clemson got a bit of a head start, as they played and won the World University Games in Italy. That time to build chemistry is huge and should have them ready to roll to start the year. Take Clemson! 

5* NFL - Cowboys/Giants MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on Giants +7 -115

I love the value here with New York getting a TD at home against the Cowboys. No question this line is inflated in favor of Dallas, as they are a massive public team and the Giants are one of the worst teams in the league right now at 2-6. 

Dallas also getting a ton due to the fact that they went into their bye off a dominating 37-10 win at home over the Eagles and due to the fact they whooped the Giants at home 35-17 in Week 1. Thing is that was with Eli Manning at quarterback and without their top wide out Golden Tate. Daniel Jones is definitely an upgrade of Eli and I think this offense will be able to do enough to cover this spread. 

Cowboys are just 6-16 ATS last 22 road game soff a home win by 21 or more points and the Giants are a dominant 17-3 ATS last 20 after giving up 17 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take New York! 

4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Clippers -4 -109

This is just too good a value to pass up with the Clippers at home. Los Angeles just lost at Utah by double-digits last week, but that was to be expected given that Khawi didn't play. With Leonard in the lineup the Clippers should have no problem winning by 5 or more at home. 

Utah has failed to cover 5 of their last 6 on the road, while the Clippers are a strong 31-16 ATS last 47 as a favorite. Just look at the Jazz's road games this year. They scored a mere 86 points in a 9-point loss to the Lakers, barely beat the Suns by 1-point in Phoenix and lost outright to the Kings as a 4-point favorite. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NFL- Pats/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ravens +3½ -115

I know the Patriots have looked unbeatable threw the first half of the season, but you just can't ignore how easy the schedule has been. Their last 7 games have come against the Browns, Jets, Giants, Redskins, Bills, Jets and Dolphins. Buffalo is the only one of those teams with a winning record.

Note that while they beat the Bills 16-10, they should have probably lost. Buffalo had a 375 to 224 edge in total yards and 23 first downs to the Pats 11. This Ravens team is the best that NE will have seen all season. Lamar Jackson's ability to make plays with his legs is the one thing you can't defend for and I think we see the NE defense struggle for the first time this season. Also, big edge playing at home in a prime time game like this. 

Road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg are just 18-52 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a win by 10 or more. Take Baltimore!

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins +3½ -120

As difficult as it may be to bet on a team at this price that doesn't have a win, I really like the value with Miami on Sunday. This is not the same Dolphins team that wasn't trying early in the season. They have really been playing hard and enter having covered 3 straight. 

Jets are a complete mess right now. The ghosts that Sam Darnold started seeing against the Patriots were also in Jacksonville, as Darnold threw 3 more picks and was sacked 8 times by the Jaguars. Not only is he struggling, but there's beef within the locker room and how management handled the attempt to trade safety Jamal Adams. No team wants to go 0-16 and I think we get a big effort here from the Dolphins and they get that first win of 2019. Take Miami! 

4* NCAAF - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on New Mexico +5 -109

The Lobos are definitely worth a look here at this price. I get New Mexico has lost 5 straight and are just 2-6 on the season, but Nevada isn't exactly lighting up the world. Wolf Pack have 4 wins but two of those are against UTEP and Weber State. they have lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6. 

Nevada shouldn't be laying more than a field goal with how they play defense. Wolf Pack are allowing 37.6 ppg and 6.4 yards/play. Lobos have been a great bet under Davie against teams that give up a lot of points. New Mexico has covered 13 of their last 15 against teams that allow 31 or more points/game. Lobos are also 10-2 ATS last 12 on the road after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more at the half. Take New Mexico! 

4* NBA - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on 76ers +2½ -110

Easy play on the 76ers getting points against the Blazers Saturday night. Portland is getting love here because they are at home, but the Blazers did just finish up a 4-game road trip and have been on the go since the season started (have yet to play two straight at home). 

Philadelphia has started out 4-0 and will not be overlooking this one. Last year the Blazers swept both meetings against the 76ers in blowout fashion, winning 129-95 at home and 130-115 at Philly. I just don't think this year's Blazers team is as strong as the one that made the Western Conference Finals. Even with Embiid suspended, I still think the 76ers will role here. Take Philadelphia! 

3* NBA - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Magic +4½ -110

Most will immediately look to fade Orlando here, as the Magic will be on no rest and just got annihilated by 32 at home last night against the Bucks. Not me. I'm confident Orlando will respond here with not only a cover, but I like them to win outright. 

Denver has last their last two. The most recent being a 122-107 loss at New Orleans as a 4-point favorite. The offense just isn't in sync right now for the Nuggets and while it didn't show last night, this Magic team can get after you defensively. Even after giving up 123 to the Bucks they are still allowing just 97 ppg at home. Take Orlando! 

5* NCAAF - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on UAB +10½ -110

As bad as it's been for the Volunteers this year, I think the public is going to be tempted to take Tennessee laying less than two touchdowns against a team from C-USA, especially considering the Vols have won 2 of their last 3, including a 41-21 blowout win over South Carolina last time out. 

That tells me the books really like UAB's chances to cover and I agree. The Blazers are extremely well coached under Bill Clark, who has a 31-15 record in 3+ seasons in Birmingham. Vols are also just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games and 2-7 ATS last 9 off a win. 

Great system in play favoring a fade of Tennessee. Home teams that have won 2 of their last 3 games and still own a winning percentage between 25% to 40% are just 8-34 (19%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take UAB! 

4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER  on Oregon State +6½ -107

Big time value here with the Beavers catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Wildcats. Oregon State is a program on the rise. Beavers have already won 3 games this season and just pulled off a big upset at Cal as a double-digit dog. 

Arizona has lost and failed to cover 3 straight games. To say the defense has been bad for the Wildcats would be an understatement. Arizona has allowed 41 or more in 3 straight games. Prior to playing to really good defensive teams in Utah and Cal, Oregon State scored 28 or more in 4 straight, twice eclipsing 40 points. I actually like the Beavers to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for insurance. 

Great system in play favoring a play on the Beavers. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in Weeks 10-13, who have covered 4 of their last 5 are 38-13 (75%) ATS last 10 seasons. Take Oregon State! 

4* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Tulane -9½ -109

I got no problem here laying the points with the Green Wave at home. This is the ideal spot to fade Tulsa off an absolutely gut-wrenching 42-41 loss at home to Memphis. That's now 4 straight losses for the Golden Hurricanes and I just don't think they are going to want anything to do with playing a pissed off Tulane team on the road. 

Green Wave are just 4-3, but those 3 losses have all come on the road against top tier teams in Memphis, Navy and Auburn. Last year Tulane won and covered at Tulsa and the year before won 62-28 as a slim 5.5-point home favorite.

Green Wave are 4-0 ATS last 5 at home and 18-8 ATS last 26 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Tulsa is 3-9 ATS last 12 off a cover, 1-4 ATS last 5 after scoring 40 or more and 2-8 ATS last 10 after rushing for 200+ yards. Take Tulane! 

4* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Colorado State -9 -108

I got no problem laying single digits with the Rams at home against this UNLV team. The Rebels surprised some people last week with a mere 3-point loss at home to San Diego State as a 11.5-point dog. Mainly because the Aztecs look like a team that will be playing for the MWC title later this month. 

I just think that was UNLV simply giving it all they had and San Diego State kinda just going thru the motions against a team they knew they were better than. Every other loss the Rebels have suffered has been by more than two touchdowns. 

Colorado State got off to that awful 1-5 start, but a lot of that was them just playing a brutal schedule out of the gate Rams enter having won their last two, including a 41-31 upset win at Fresno State last time out. Colorado State has simply been undervalued and it shows with their 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5. 

UNLV is 6-16 ATS last 22 on the road after losing 6/7 of their last 8 games and 3-11 ATS last 14 off a cover. Take Colorado State! 

3* NCAAF - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on TCU +4½ -109

I think the value here with TCU as a dog against the Cowboys. Both teams are off big wins last week. Horned Frogs defeated Texas 37-27 at home, while Oklahoma State went on the road and beat a red-hot ISU team.

I think the key to slowing down this Cowboys team is to stop the run and that's something TCU has done extremely well. Horned Frogs are giving up just 3.2 yards/carry. Oklahoma State had also just lost at home to Baylor by 18 the week before and also lost by double-digit to a pretty mediocre Texas Texas squad. 

Cowboys are much better suited to beat teams that want to get in a shootout. OK State is just 9-21 ATS vs similar teams like TCU that control 32+ minutes of possession and 21+ first downs. Underdog has also covered 4 straight in the series. Take TCU! 

3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Rice +10½ -109

I think we are getting a decent price here with the Owls catching double-digits. Rice is thought of by many as one of the worst teams in the country, as the are winless at 0-8 and haven't been good recently. I'm not saying they are a good team, but they are better than their record. Owls have a mere 8-point loss to undefeated Baylor, only lost by 3 to Louisiana Tech and have been competitive in really all but a couple games against WF and Texas. 

Marshall has been one of the most overvalued valued teams in the country. The Thundering Herd have a solid 5-3 SU record and are riding a 3-game winning streak, but are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. 

Basically anytime Marshall is favored you want to look to the other side. Thundering Herd are 3-11 ATS last 2 seasons when giving points. They have also not covered a single spread in games played on Saturday (0-6) this season. Owls are 32-16 ATS last 48 at home in weeks 10 thru 13 and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Take Rice! 

5* NBA - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Spurs -6½ -108

I'm not sure how you pass up on the Spurs in this spot. I know San Antonio is playing on no rest after a hard fought loss against the Clippers last night, but the Warriors have looked awful to start the season and now must play without Steph Curry. 

Golden State really doesn't have a guy they can go to at the point to fill the void left by Curry. Not to mention they were already lacking scoring outside of the former league MVP. Add in the awful defense they have played and I don't care who the Spurs send out there they should win here by double-digits no problem. 

Warriors just 12-30-1 ATS last 43 at home. Spurs have covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and the favorite has covered 11 of the last 15 in the series. Take San Antonio! 

3* NBA - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Magic +5 -115

The books are begging you to take the Bucks here as a small road favorite against the Magic, especially with Milwaukee coming off that ugly loss to the Celtics where they blew a huge lead. I just don't trust this Bucks team on the road in this pot. Not only are they coming off a big game against Boston, they got the defending champs on their home court tomorrow. 

Orlando is a sneaky good team and while they are just 2-2 to start, they haven't shot the ball well at all. Defensively they are better than people think. They have held 3 of their first 4 teams under 40% shooting. Magic are 8-3 ATS last 11 at home, while the Bucks are just 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road. Take Orlando! 

5* NFL - 49ers/Cardinals TNF ATS NO-BRAINER on 49ers -10 -109

Usually I wouldn't lay a big number like this on the road in a division matchup, but I just think the 49ers are going to win here easily. This San Francisco defensive front is unreal and are making it near impossible for opposing teams to throw on them. 49ers rank No. 1 in pass defense, giving up a ridiculous 128.7 ypg. 

Arizona is down starting running back David Johnson and backup Chase Edmonds, which forced them to make a trade with the Dolphins for Kenyan Drake. I don't see the Cardinals being able to have the kind of success running the ball needed to keep this 49ers defense honest. 

Last week the Cardinals had just 40 rushing yards and 197 passing yards against a good Saints defense. 49ers should score into the 20's here and easily win this game by 14-plus points. Take San Francisco! 

3* NCAAF - W Virginia/Baylor ATS ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia +19 -115

I feel like the price is right to back the Mountaineers in Thursday's game at Baylor. The Bears are ranked No. 12 and sitting at 7-0, but I'm not buying this being one of the 15 best teams in the country. Last time out Baylor won 45-27 at Oklahoma State, but they trailed by double-digits in the 2nd half. 

West Virginia is a team the betting public wants nothing to do with, which is why we are getting such a great price with them in this one. I know the results don't look great, but the Mountaineers have hung around early in a lot of their games and have played a really tough schedule with 6 of 7 against Power 5 teams. 

Mountaineers new head coach Neal Brown has got his team to thrive in this spot, going 11-2 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning record. Baylor is just 3-12-1 ATS last 16 vs a team with a losing record. Take West Virginia! 

3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Heat -6½ -109

This is an easy play on the Heat. Miami just beat Atlanta 112-97 on Tuesday and they completely dominated after Trae Young went out with an ankle injury. I could see some talking themselves into betting the Hawks at home here, but I just feel that Young is too valuable to Atlanta's success. 

I've also really liked what I've seen out of this Miami team. Keep in mind that game against the Hawks was the first time Jimmy Butler suited up for the Heat. He had 21 points. Miami's just got too much depth for Atlanta to keep it close. Take Miami! 

4* NBA - Clippers/Jazz ATS NO-BRAINER on Jazz -2½ -105

This is just too good a price to pass up with Utah at home. The Jazz haven't really played great to start the year and yet are 3-1. I get the Clippers have looked great to start the year, but I think they are overvalued because of it. Last time they were on the road they lost by 8 at Phoenix and there's not many places tougher to play than Utah. 

Jazz are 21-10 ATS last 31 off a non-cover and have covered 3 straight at home against the Clippers. I believe Utah's defense will be the deciding factor in this matchup. Jazz are allowing just 91.5 ppg and just 88.0 ppg at home. LA is giving up 112.5 ppg and 126.0 ppg on the road. Take Utah! 

4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on 76ers -6½ -110

I got no problem laying this number at home with the 76ers. Philadelphia is coming off a couple of uninspiring wins over the Pistons and Hawks, but both of those were on the road. 76ers are not the same team on the road as they are at home. They were 31-10 at home last year compared to 20-21 on the road. 

Philadelphia doesn't just win SU at home. They are 56-37 (60%) ATS at home the last 3 seasons. They are also a dominant 24-8 ATS last 32 at home against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. 

Timberwolves are 3-0 to start the season, but two of those wins are against Eastern Conference bottom feeders in Brooklyn and Charlotte. The other is a win at home against the Heat (without Jimmy Butler), where they trailed by 7 going into the 4th quarter. Minnesota just 3-7-1 ATS last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and have failed to cover 5 straight against the 76ers. Give me Philadelphia!

5* NBA - Hawks/Heat Southeast GAME OF THE MONTH on Heat -8 -105

This line is begging you to take the Hawks and the public is taking the bait. I just don't think we are going to get the kind of effort needed from Atlanta to keep this close. Hawks are off a gut-wrenching 105-103 loss at home to the 76ers last night. A game the Hawks led by 9 after the 1st quarter and still had the lead going into the 4th quarter. 

Another factor here is the schedule makes this one a little less enticing for the Hawks, as they will turn around and host Miami on Thursday. As for the Heat, they are off to an impressive 2-1 start that includes a 5-point win at Milwaukee. They did that without their prized new addition of Jimmy Butler, who will make his debut tonight. Heat's only home game was the season opener and they won by 19 over Memphis. 

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 105 or more in 2 straight are 95-51 (65%) ATS since 1996 when facing an opponent off a loss by 3 or fewer points. Take Miami! 

3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder +10½ -109

OKC is definitely worth a look here as a double-digit dog at Houston. Thunder avoided an 0-3 start with an emphatic 120-92 win at home over the Warriors, where they had a 42-point lead one point in the game. OKC also covered in a 5-point loss as a 9-point dog at Utah. No question they are going to be up for this one. 

Houston has failed to cover each of their first two as they are simply being overvalued by the books to start the year. They were lucky to leave with a 126-123 win at home against the Pelicans on Saturday, a game they were favored by 12. Look for the Thunder to keep this much closer than the books anticipate. Take Oklahoma City! 

5* NBA - Eastern Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Magic +4½ -105

Most are going to be tempted to take the Raptors here laying what looks like a short number at home against the Magic, who have failed to cover each of their first two games. I like Orlando quite a bit at this price. 

What people are going to overlook with Toronto is them playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, all 3 at different venues. This is only the second game in the last 5 days for Orlando. Magic simply haven't shot the ball well in their first two games and are due for a few more shots to fall. Hard to see Toronto's defense being at it's best playing 3 in 4. 

Road dogs who had a losing record the previous year and off a road loss are 37-12 ATS (76%) ATS last 5 seasons. Take Orlando! 

5* NFL - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Packers -4 -105

No reason to overthink this one. This is too good a price to pass up with Green Bay given the circumstances. Kansas City will not have the reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes and if you watched the offense last week with Matt Moore after Mahomes went down, it's night and day. I get we are seeing almost a 7-point swing with Mahomes out, but I feel he's worth more than that. 

It's also not just Mahomes that the Chiefs are missing. They are unlikely to have star defensive tackle Chris Jones, corner Kendall Fuller and edge rusher Frank Clark. I get the defense played well against the Broncos, but Denver's offense is a complete mess with how bad Flacco is playing. 

I don't see the Chiefs defense being able to slow down Aaron Rodgers on Sunday and I could see this getting out of hand early. It just feels like a throw away game for KC with Mahomes out. Take Green Bay! 

5* NBA - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Mavs -2 -109

The Mavs are definitely worth a look here as a slim home favorite against the Blazers. I think Dallas is even better than anticipated and the Mavs have started out 2-0. Portland on the other hand is a team that came into this season way overvalued after last year's trip to the Western Conference Finals. 

Portland won last time out at Sacramento, but that's not saying much given how bad the Kings have looked to start the season. I just don't think this will be a very profitable team on the road, especially early on, as it will take some time for the books to adjust to how much worse off this year's team is. 

Mavs are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record and the Blazers are a mere 2-8 ATS last 10 times they have played the Mavs on the road. Take Dallas! 

4* NFL - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on Raiders +7 -115

The Raiders are definitely worth a look here at this price. Oakland's not a team that gets a lot of love to start with, while Houston is a pretty decent public play with how much the public likes Deshaun Watson. Add in the Raiders coming in off an ugly looking 42-24 loss to the Packers and I don't think there's any doubt this line is inflated. 

However, a closer look at the box score shows the Raiders were a lot more competitive than that final against Green Bay. In fact, Oakland outgained the Packers 484 to 481. They had two times where they had 1st and goal and didn't score a point an another turnover in the redzone. Gruden has this team going in the right direction and I not only think they can cover, but win this game outright. Take Oakland! 

3* NFL - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Browns +11½ -115

Cleveland is worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Patriots. I just think we are seeing New England way overvalued coming off that dominating performance against the Jets, where they made Sam Darnold see ghosts. 

Most just assume that Cleveland will have no shot of keeping this close, but I think they not only keep it within the number, I think they give NE a real scare here. Browns have a massive edge in rest, as they will be coming off their bye, while the Patriots are on a short week after playing on MNF. 

Favorites of 10.5 or more that are outgaining opponents by 1.75 or more yards/pass attempt are just 15-39 (28%) ATS if off 2 straight games holding a team to 5.5 or fewer yards/pass attempts. Take Cleveland! 

5* NCAAF - Utah St/Air Force MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State +4½ -111

I love the Aggies getting more than a field goal against the Falcons. Air Force's starting quarterback Donald Hammond is questionable to play and if he does suit up he might not be 100%. Regardless, I would have liked Utah State at this price. 

Utah State is 4-2 with their only two losses at Wake Forest and at LSU and they probably should have beat the Demon Deacons (lost 35-38). Aggies got one of my favorite 'Group of 5' quarterbacks in Jordan Love and he should torch this Air Force defense that is allowing opposing QB's to complete 64% or more. Last year Love threw for 356 yards and 2 scores against the Aggies. 

Utah State has covered 14 of their last 19 overall as the books just don't give them the credit they deserve. Air Force 0-6 ATS last 6 after covering 2 of their last 3 and 0-7 ATS last 7 after outrushing two straight opponents by 125 or more yards. Take Utah State! 

3* NCAAF - Late Night BAILOUT WINNER on California +21½ -110

Easy play here on the Golden Bears catching more than 3 touchdowns against Utah. The most points Cal has allowed in any game this year is 24. If they allow that we simply need them to score 3 to cover.

We just saw Utah score only 21 at home against ASU. Cal's defense is better and we have seen them play some of their best football on the road as a dog. They won 20-19 as a 13-point dog at Washington and 28-20 as a 2.5-point dog at Ole Miss. They also covered as a 21-point dog at Oregon. Touching on that, no way should Utah be favored by more at home against Cal than the Ducks. Take California! 

5* NBA - Southwest Division PLAY OF THE MONTH  on Pelicans +11 -110

I absolutely love the value here with New Orleans as a double-digit dog against the Rockets. I think with the Pelicans off a hard fought loss last night, most will be looking to fade them in the second of a back-to-back against a Houston team looking to rebound from a loss to the Bucks in their season opener. 

I just think there's enough talent with New Orleans, even without Zion, to keep this within single digits. Big thing here on no rest is the Pelicans are a very deep team. They had 10 guys play at least 14 minutes last night with no one playing more than 33. 

Houston has a lot of star-power, especially with the 1-2 punch of Westbrook and Harden. It has a chance to be special, but it's going to take some time for the chemistry to form. Thus making the Rockets a team to fade early on, especially when they are big favorites like this. Take New Orleans! 

3* NCAAF - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Texas State +12 -110

Love the Bobcats here as a double-digit dog against the Red Wolves. I just don't think Arkansas State is worthy of laying a number like this. They just got beat bad at home by Lafayette and the week before lost by 14 as a favorite at Georgia State. This team also lost as a 23-point favorite to Southern Illinois. 

As for Texas State, this team is better than they get credit for. They are just 2-4, but have played a tough schedule. Their 4 losses are to Texas A&M, Wyoming, SMU and ULM. 

More than anything, we got a massive system in play. Teams that have allowed 300 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against an opponent that just rushed for 100 or less are 4-25 (14%) ATS the last 10 seasons. Take Texas State! 

4* NCAAF - American Athletic PLAY OF THE WEEK  on Tulane +4 -110

The Green Wave are definitely worth a look here getting more than a field goal against the Midshipmen. Green Wave are coming off an ugly loss at Memphis, but that's a really good Tigers team. Their only other loss is at Auburn by just 18. 

Navy has been a nice surprise, but I'm just not buying them being as good as their record. Also, they don't get the edge of being an option team and facing a team that doesn't know how to stop it. Tulane also runs the option. 

I just think the Green Wave have the better talent here and they have thrived in this spot. Tulane is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when trailing in their previous game by 24 or more. 

Navy comes in having won and covered 3 straight and are 5-1 ATS on the season. This is the point where you want to fade teams like the Midshipmen. Teams that have won 80% or more of their games and covered the spread by 49 or more points total in their last 5 games are a mere 16-42 (28%) ATS the last 5 seasons when playing a good team that has won 60% to 80% of their games. 

4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida International -3 -110

I see a ton of value here with FIU laying only a field goal against the Blue Raiders on Saturday. The Panthers got off to a slow start with just 1 win in their first 4 games and I think people wrote this team off. 

Turns out the schedule was harder than it looked. They lost at Tulane, who is 5-2 with their only two losses on the road to Auburn and Memphis. They followed that up with a loss at home to WKU and they too are 5-2. The other against LA Tech who is 6-1 and looking like the team to beat in C-USA. 

Since that slow start FIU has gone 3-0 with all 3 coming in blowout fashion. They should have no problem making easy work of Middle Tennessee, who is going to have a hard time bouncing back from a crushing 33-30 loss at North Texas. 

Blue Raiders are 0-5 ATS last 5 versus a team with a winning record. FIU is 6-2 ATS last 8 road games. Take FIU! 

5* NCAAF - Auburn/LSU SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU -10 -107

This might seem like a big number for LSU to be laying against a Auburn team that is 6-1 both SU and ATS, but I just think LSU is a clear step above Auburn. Everyone was calling for LSU to have a letdown last week against Mississippi State and they cruised to a 36-13 win. 

Auburn gets a lot of love for beating Oregon and Texas A&M, but they also lost by 9 at Florida and LSU beat the Gators by 14. I just don't think the Auburn can go score for score with LSU and this will get ugly once Auburn is forced to throw. 

Home favorites in games involving two dominant teams that are outgaining opponents by 1.2 or more yards/play are 70-32 (69%) ATS if coming off 3 straight games where the gained 6.35 or more yards/play. 

Also a strong system in favor of fading Auburn. Teams like Auburn that have beat the spread by 49 or more combined points in their last 5 games and have won 80% or more of their games are a mere 31-70 (31%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take LSU! 

4* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on North Texas -3½ -110

The Mean Green are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the 49ers. North Texas hasn't been as good as people were expecting given they returned Mason Fine at quarterback, but they got two losses at SMU and Cal. They also had an ugly loss to Houston after King redshirted and a loss at SOuthern Miss. 

I like how they responded last week with a 33-30 win over Middle Tennessee. I just don't think it's asking a lot for them to win by a touchdown against this Charlotte team. The 49ers  are 2-5 and the two wins are against Gardner Webb and UMass. They come in having lost and failed to cover in 4 straight. 

They are giving up 39.4 ppg against teams that only average 29.5 ppg. North Texas is putting up 32.1 ppg and 449 yards/game. Charlotte is just 1-5 ATS last 6 conference games. Take Mean Green! 

4* NCAAF - Big Ten ATS PLAY OF THE WEEK on Illinois +10 -110

I think we are seeing some great value here with the Fighting Illini as a double-digit dog against Purdue. I think when the public sees a team like Illinois pull off a massive upset like they did last week beating Wisconsin as a 29-point underdog, there first thought is that team will have a big letdown. 

I'm just not buying that. I think we see the Fighting Illini use that win to their advantage and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Purdue covered last week at Iowa as 17.5-point dog, but that Hawkeyes team looks broken. Boilermakers just have no threat of a running game. They are averaging 59 ypg and 2.2 yards/carry. If they struggle at all in the passing game they will lose here. 

Road underdogs off a home win against a conference opponent are 36-12 ATS (75%) last 5 seasons when facing a team like Purdue that is off a conference loss by 7 or less. Take Illinois! 

4* NCAAF - USC/Colorado Weeknight NO-BRAINER on Colorado +12 -105

Really like the value here with Colorado as a double-digit home dog against the the Trojans. I think now is the time to strike with the Buffaloes after 3 straight losses. The last two being blowout losses on the road to Oregon and Washington State. 

USC has had their moments and are off an impressive 41-14 win at Arizona, but I'm not ready to lay double-digits with them in a prime time road game. Not to mention this is a really tough spot for the Trojans with a monumental game on deck at home against Oregon. 

USC is just 19-40-1 last 60 off a SU win, 4-11-1 ATS last 16 on the road and 1-6 ATS last 7 on Friday. Take Colorado! 

4* NBA - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Raptors +3½ -110

Book are begging you to take the Celtics at basically a pick'em at home against the Raptors and the public is taking the bait. It was not an impressive start for Boston in their opening loss to the 76ers. Celtics shot a miserable 36.7% from the field. 

Toronto is a team that I think people are sleeping on, which is rare thing for the defending champs to not get any love, but that will happen when you lose your best player. No question this isn't as good a team without Leonard, but it's still one of the better rosters in the east. People still don't realize how good Siakam is. 

Celtics just 5-16 ATS over the last 2 seasons off a road loss and just 5-15-1 ATS last 21 at home. Take Toronto!

5* NCAAF - SMU/Houston C-USA PLAY OF THE MONTH on SMU -13½ -109

Laying almost two touchdowns on the road in a weekday game isn't thought of as a great play. I don't care. I think SMU is going to absolutely lay it on the Cougars tonight. 

Houston had a spirited effort in the first game after King decided to take a healthy red-shirt because his team wasn't good enough, but that was against a North Texas team that has not lived up to expectations. They then were beat badly at Cincinnati and barely won on the road against UCONN. 

As for the Mustangs, they haven't lost a game behind their star transfer QB Shane Buechele, who ranks in the Top 10 in both yards (2,122) and TD passes (18). Books  have not been able to set the number high enough, as SMU is 6-1 ATS. They are going to score at will against this Houston defense and I don't see the Cougars being able to keep pace. Take SMU! 

4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Magic -8 -109

I got no problem laying the big number here with Orlando at home against the Cavs. Cleveland added another talented point guard in Garland, but already got a young stud point guard in Sexton. I'm not convinced these two will be a good fit together. 

Also, there's just not a ton of talent on this roster. Magic basically brought everyone back from a team that improved by 17 wins last year. I think this is a sneaky good team and that continuity should be a big advantage early in the season. I see the Magic jumping all over the Cavs early and coasting to a double-digit win. Take Orlando! 

4* NFL - Pats/Jets MNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Jets +10 -110

This is too good a price to pass up with New York at home. The Jets looked like a different team with Sam Darnold under center last week, as they upset the Cowboys 24-22 as a 7-point home dog. New York isn't just going into MNF thinking they can keep it close, they believe they can win outright. 

These two already played back in Week 3, which the Patriots won 30-14. New England only won by 16 and Luke Faulk started that game for the Jets. Tom Brady threw for 306 yards in that win, but the Pats only man aged 68 rushing yards on 27 attempts (2.5 yards/carry). Brady completed 30 of 42 pass attempts. Of those 30, 18 were to Rex Burkhead, Phillip Dorsett and Josh Gordon. Both Burkhead and Gordon are out and Dorsett is questionable. There was also concern Edelman might not play and he had 7 of the other 12 receptions. 

I look for this to be a low-scoring game, which definitely adds to the value here with New York at this price. Jets have covered 24 of their last 35 at home against good teams that are outscoring opponents by 6+ ppg and 7-1-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take New York! 

5* NFL - Saints/Bears NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bears -3 -120

It's been an impressive run for New Orleans behind Teddy Bridgewater while Drew Brees recovers from a thumb injury, but I don't see the Saints winning in Chicago on Sunday. While they have been winning games, it's not because Bridgewater is lighting up defenses. 

He certainly isn't going to light up this Bears defense, which is No. 6 in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Making matters even worse, New Orleans will be without star running back Alvin Kamara. 

Bears will be getting Trubisky back from injury and I think we are going to see a little more offense out of Chicago out of the bye week. Bears are a lot closer to being 5-0 than they get credit for. They are 7-0-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 12-4 ATS last 16 vs other NFC teams. Take Chicago! 

4* NFL - Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Seahawks -3 -107

No way I'm passing up on the Seahawks as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Ravens. Seattle is 5-1 to start the year and have won 3 straight. Russell Wilson looks like the front runner for the MVP with Mahomes banged up and yet it doesn't feel like this Seahawks team is getting any love. 

I look for Wilson to have a huge game against a suspect Ravens secondary and you know he wants to get the better of former Seahawk safety Earl Thomas. Baltimore ranks in the bottom 10 of the league against the pass, as opposing QB's are completing 61% and averaging 7.7 yards/attempt. 

Favorites off 2 straight games with 50 or more points scored are 35-12 (75%) ATS the last 10 seasons in games where both defenses are struggling (allowing 23-27 ppg). Take the Seattle! 

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cardinals +3½ -115

I just don't trust this Giants team and feel they are getting a little too much love because of the media hype around Daniel Jones. Not to mention NY is expected to get back Saquon Barkley. The problem that keeps getting overlooked with the Giants is the defense. 

New York is 31st out of 32 teams against the pass, giving up 285 yards/game. They also rank in the bottom 10 (24th) against the run, allowing 127.3 ypg. That defense is going up against a confident rookie QB in Kyler Murray, who has guided the Cardinals to back-to-back wins. 

Giants are 1-9 ATS at home in the 1st half of the season over the last 3 years. They are just 8-19 ATS last 27 off a road loss by 21 or more. Cardinals are 12-3 ATS last 15 games with a total of 49.5 or more. Take Arizona! 

5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Boise State -7 -109

I'll gladly lay the touchdown with Boise State on the road against the Cougars. I'm not really sure why this BYU team gets so much love. The schedule has been brutal, there's no denying that. However, their two wins are against Tenn and USC by 3-points a piece. 

This team lost by 26 at home to Washington, lost at Toledo and they just fell at South Florida. That loss to USF is bad. The Bulls were without starting QB Blake Barnett (had just 72 yards passing). That's the same USF team that lost 49-0 to Wisconsin and somehow managed to lose to an awful Georgia Tech team. 

I get that Boise State's QB might not play, but the backup has been solid. More than anything, I don't think the Broncos need much from their QB to win here by double-digits. Take Boise State! 

4* NCAAF - Pac-12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on USC -9½ -108

Definitely worth a look here to lay the 9.5 at home with USC. I think this is the perfect spot to buy low on the Trojans. To a lot of people this will look like too many points for USC to be laying. Trojans are off back-to-back losses and just 3-3 overall. Arizona is off a loss to Washington, but had won 4 straight prior to that defeat. 

I just don't think people realize how good this USC team is. The Trojans could of easily won at BYU (lost by 3 in OT), they only lost by 14 at Washington and put up quite the fight at Notre Dame last week (lost by 3). Their 3 wins are against Fresno St, Utah and Stanford, so there have been no easy games on the schedule. 

That is until now. Arizona is mediocre at best. losing by 24 at Washington was not a surprise and I don't see them being able to keep USC from marching up and down the field. Keep in mind the Wildcats allowed 45 to Hawaii and 41 to Northern Arizona earlier this season. Trojans got to much talent at the skill positions. Take USC! 

3* NCAAF - C Carolina/G Southern Side/Total Parlay on Georgia Southern -6½ & UNDER 45½

I like both the side and total in Saturday's Sun Belt showdown between Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern. Last time out the Eagles held South Alabama to just 17 points and I don't see them allowing much in this one. 

Coastal Carolina just gave up 350 yards rushing last time out to Georgia State. All Georgia Southern wants to do is run the ball with that option attack. These option teams are not fun to face and I just think the Chanticleers are going to want nothing to do with being cut block all game. 

Coastal Carolina is just 3-7 ATS last 10 games and have failed to cover 6 straight conference games. Eagles are 7-3 ATS last 10 at home. UNDER is 5-2 in Chanticleers last 7 off a loss and 12-4 in Georgia Southern's last 16 after giving up 20+ points. Take Georgia Southern & UNDER! 

5* NCAAF - Mountain West PLAY OF THE MONTH on Wyoming -17½ -103

Love the Cowboys to cover the number at home against the Lobos. New Mexico lost by 52 on the road to Notre Dame and just lost by 14 at home to a bad Colorado State team. They got no business keeping this close. 

Cowboys will be motivated off a tough a loss at SDSU and the game before they took out UNLV at home 53-17. Last year Wyoming destroyed the Lobos 31-3 and the year before it was 42-3. Expect more of the same on Saturday. 

Cowboys are 6-0 ATS last 6 vs a bad team that's won between 25% and 40% of their games the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot by 19.5 ppg. Take Wyoming! 

4* NCAAF - Marshall/FAU C-USA PLAY OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic -4½ -100

I got no problem here laying the 4.5 with FAU at home against Marshall. I just think the perception here is that these two teams are evenly matched, but I don't see that at all. For starters, Marshall lost 13-24 to Middle Tennessee and FAU just beat that same Blue Raiders team 28-13. 

Marshall has two cupcake wins over VMI and ODU to go along with a fortunate 33-31 win at home against Ohio. FAU's only two losses are to Ohio State and UCF. People give Marshall credit for only losing by 7 at Boise State, but that was a misleading final. Broncos outgained the Herd 437 to 172 with a 22 to 9 edge in first downs. Marshall also got annihilated 52-14 at home against Cincinnati. 

The other big thing for me is the Owls have the much better signal caller in this matchup. Isaiah Green for Marshall provides a dual threat, but is really limited throwing the ball. FAU's Chris Robinson is completing 64% of his attempts with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. Look for the Owls to win the turnover battle at home and get their revenge from last year's lopsided loss at Marshall. Take FAU! 

4* NCAAF - UCLA/Stanford Weeknight NO-BRAINER on UCLA +4½ -110

I could see why some would be scared to back UCLA as a small road dog against Stanford, given the Bruins are off an ugly 17-point loss at home to Oregon State and just 1-5 on the season. However, this game is there for the taking, as the Cardinal have been decimated with injuries on the offensive side of the ball. 

Stanford will be without their top two quarterbacks in K.J. Costello and Davis Mills. They will have to turn to sophore Jack West, who will be making his first career start. That's bad enough, but it gets worse. The Cardinal have also sustained a number of injuries on the offensive line and will have 3 freshman forced into action. Even against a sub-par UCLA defense, I don't see the Stanford offense being able to do much. 

Road dogs of 3.5 to 10 ponts who are giving up 6.1 or more yards/play are 41-12 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons after a game where they had 475 or more total yards. Take UCLA! 

5* NCAAF - Early Week Day PLAY OF THE MONTH  on Troy -14½ -110

I think the books made a big mistake not making Troy a much bigger favorite here. There's no denying that this year's Trojans team isn't as good as the one that won 10-games last year. That and the fact that Troy is just 1-4 ATS has people considering South Alabama at this price. 

It's not like The Trojans have been losing to bad teams and they are a couple close losses away from being 4-1 with their only loss on the road to Missouri. They are still way more talented than South Alabama and I just don't see the Jaguars pathetic excuse for an offense being able to keep pace. 

South Alabama has not eclipsed 17 points in any of their last 4 games and have played some bad defenses in this stretch. The most they have scored all season against a FBS opponent is 21 against Nebraska and they had a 13-yard TD drive in that game. The Trojans has scored 35+ in every game not against a Power 5 opponent. Take Troy! 

4* NFL - Lions/Packers MNF NO-BRAINER on Lions +4 -110

I think we are getting some big time value here with Detroit catching more than a field goal. The betting public just assumes an Aaron Rodgers led team can't lose at home in a prime time game, but the Lions have won 4 straight in the series and have won 3 of their last 4 trips to Green Bay. 

Packers defense has been one of the more improved units in the league, but I don't know that it's as good as people think. Also, the offense hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard. Green Bay has just 1 game this season where they have thrown for more than 235 yards. They also have finished with fewer than 80 yards rushing in 3 of 5 games.

Detroit is a team that gets little to no respect, but I really like what Matt Patricia is doing with this team. They won at Philadelphia and should have beat the Chiefs at home. They will be ready to go here coming off a bye. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Lions win this outright. Give me Detroit +4! 

3* NFL - Vegas ATS SHOCKER on Jets +7½ -115

This is just too good a price to pass up on the Jets. I think the public perception is that the Cowboys will bounce back against a bad team after a couple of bad losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. I just don't think that's going to be the case. I think there's some pretty clear flaws with that Cowboys offense. 

As for the Jets, you have to take their 0-4 start and factor in they didn't have starting quarterback Sam Darnold for 3 of those games. Not only that, but they were quickly down to their No. 3 starter and it was a massive drop off. Darnold will put more pressure on the defense, which should allow Le'Veon Bell to be a bigger factor. 

Cowboys are just 6-18 ATS last 24 road games vs bad offensive teams (avg. 258 or less ypg). Jets are also 7-1-1 ATS last 9 at home against a team with a .500 or better record on the road. Take New York! 

4* NFL - 49ers/Rams NFC West NO-BRAINER on Rams -3 -120

Love the value here with the Rams laying only a field goal at home against the 49ers. I know Todd Gurley is questionable, but with or without him I think LA gets the job done at home.

A lot of people are jumping on the 49ers bandwagon after that impressive 31-3 win over Cleveland on Monday Night Football. SF is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. However, they have played a relatively easy schedule. 

Their worst offensive performance came in Week 1 against Tampa Bay, when they struggled to run the ball. Finished with just 98 yards on 32 attempts. Rams have been pretty solid against th run, especially at home, where they are allowing just 72 ypg and 2.9 yards/carry. Also, 49ers run game figures to take a huge hit with the loss of fullback Kyle Juszczyk. When Juszczyk got hurt in that Browns game, the SF's offense did not look the same. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Dolphins +3½ -110

As bad as the Dolphins have looked to start out the 2019 season, I have to take my chances with Miami covering as a 3.5-point home dog against Washington. There's no way this Redskins team should be favored on the road against any team in the league right now. 

Washington just fired head coach Jay Gruden and might be without two starters on the offensive line, as both Donald Penn and Brandon Scherff are both questionable. Keep in mind they are still without star left tackle Trent Williams who is holding out. 

Miami clearly is in rebuilding mode, but there's no way the players aren't going to try to give their best effort for a win. I think we get one of their best efforts all season at home coming off a bye against a team they know they can beat. Let's overlook that the Dolphins have played 4 potential playoff teams in the Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys and Chargers. Take Miami! 

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Eagles +3 +104

I like the Eagles to go into Minnesota and come away with a win, making them an easy play at +3. I just think there's a lot more flaws with this Vikings team than people realize. They are 3-2, but their 3 wins are against the Falcons, Raiders and Giants. 

Kirk Cousin has not looked good outside of that game against a bad Giants defense. When this team has faced a good defense they have not done much. They had just 16 points against Green Bay and managed a mere 6 against the Bears. 

Eagles defense has been spotty, but most of their problems have come against the pass. In fact, they lead the league in run defense, giving up just 63 yards/game. If Minnesota can't run the ball they are in serious trouble. Wentz and the Eagles offense won't have to do much to get the win. Take Philadelphia! 

4* NCAAF -Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Kentucky -6½ -110

I think this is the ideal spot to buy low and back the Wildcats laying less than a touchdown at home against the Razorbacks. Kentucky was the surprise team of the SEC last year, as they went 5-3 in the conference and 10-3 overall. THis year they are just 2-3 and coming into this game off 3 straight losses. 

The thing is, they lost at home to Florida by just 8 and had a 21-10 lead on the Gators in the 4th quarter. They then lost on the road to Miss State and South Carolina, which was to be expected. This feels like a make or break point in their season and I like Mark Stoops team to respond in a big way, especially coming off a bye week. 

All you need to know about the Razorbacks is they lost at home to San Jose STate 24-31 and that they have allowed 31+ points in every game against a FBS opponent. Note that Kentucky hasn't allowed more than 30 in a game this season. Also quarterback Nick Starkel, who took over the starting job from Ben Hicks is questionable to play. I look for the Wildcats to win comfortably. Take Kentucky! 

4* NCAAF - Tech/Baylor Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on Baylor -10 -110

This might seem like a big number for the Bears to be laying at home against Texas Tech, who just upset Oklahoma State as a double-digit home dog, but I think people are sleeping on this Baylor team. I don't see this game being close at all. 

Texas Tech really benefited from a sloppy Cowboys performance. Oklahoma State turned it over 5 times. Red Raiders defense had only forced 4 turnovers in their first 4 games. In their previous two games, both on the road, Tech was destroyed. They lost 55-16 at Oklahoma and 28-14 at Arizona. I think the Bears win here by 14+ easy. Take Baylor! 

4* NCAAF - Alabama/TX A&M SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Alabama -17 -104

I got no problem here laying the 17 on the road with Alabama. The Crimson Tide are a team on a mission and I just don't think the Aggies have the goods to keep this thing respectable. People will point to Texas A&M only losing to Clemson by 14-points on the road, but the Tigers haven't looked anywhere near as good as we thought they would. 

Then there's that ugly loss at home to Auburn, which now looks even worse after Auburn's 24-13 loss at Florida. Auburn went into College Station and won 28-20. Score makes it look like it was close, but Texas A&M trailed 21-3 going into the 4th quarter. 

Both games the Aggies offense really struggled to score and that's the big issue here. Alabama is going to score and score a lot. Alabama is averaging 51.8 ppg against teams that only give up 29.3 ppg. 

There's also the Nick Saban vs a former assistant at head coach. Fisher coached under Saban back at LSU. Saban is a perfect 17-0 SU against his former assistants and has won by an average score of 41.6 to 14.2. Take Alabama! 

5* NCAAF - Vegas Underdog GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +3½ -105

I love Purdue getting a field goal and the hook at home against Maryland. No way should the Terps be favored on the road here. I get that Purdue is down their starting QB and star wide out Rondale Moore, but it's not like Maryland isn't down a few key players. Terps will be without their starting QB in Josh Jackson and will once again turn to Tyrrell Pigrome. 

Sure Pigrome has experienced, but there's a reason he's been a backup for four years. It's pretty big downgrade here from Jackson. The fact that Maryland is favored with him as the starter will only serve as more motivation for Jeff Brohm's team. Purdue is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home dog. 

Maryland comes in off a 48-7 blowout win over Rutgers. Based on what we have seen from the Scarlet Knights this season, I'm not sure why everyone is so excited about that win. This is still the same team that lost 20-17 on the road to Temple and managed just 128 total yards in a 59-0 loss at home to Penn State.  

Keep in mind Maryland followed a 63-20 blowout win over Syracuse with that upset loss at Temple and are just 4-15 ATS in their last 21 off a conference win by 21 or more points. Take Purdue! 

3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Temple +5½ -110

I see a ton of value here with Temple at this price. The Owls already have one home win as a home dog against Maryland. They were also a 5.5-point dog in that fight. Memphis is just getting a little too much love off their 5-0 start.

Their best win was against Ole Miss and they barely beat them. This will also be by far their toughest road game of 2019. Tigers are a mere 19-35 ATS in their last 54 as a favorite of -3.5 to -10. Owls are 16-6 ATS last 22 as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Take Temple! 

4* NCAAF - Virginia/Miami ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Miami-FL -2 -110

In the eyes of the betting public there's no way the Hurricanes should be favored in this matchup. Virginia is No. 20 in the country, coming off a bye and are 4-1 with their only loss coming in a game against Notre Dame where they turned it over 5 times. Miami on the other hand is sitting at 2-3 and just lost outright as a 14-point favorite to Va Tech, who had not been playing well. 

Those that didn't watch the game against the Hokies, Miami starting quarterback Jarren Williams threw an interception on each of their first 3 series and Mike Harley fumbled on the next. It was 28-0 before the Hurricanes knew what hit them. They actually came back and tied the game 35-35. 

Backup QB N'Kosi Perry who started a few games last year, threw for 422 yards and 4 scores in relief of Williams. I think he's brought life to the offense and head coach Manny Diaz is taking more control of the defense this week. This is still the same team that had Florida on the ropes in Week 1. 

I think we see the Hurricane's defense really step up in this game and shutdown a pretty mediocre Virginia offense. Take Miami! 

4* NCAAF - Colo St/NM MWC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Colorado State -3½ +100

It can be really hard to lay points with a team that is sitting at 1-5 with their only win coming at home against Western Illinois, but I really like the Rams to win here by at least a touchdown. Colorado State may be 1-5, but a lot of that is the schedule. The 5 losses are against Colorado, Arkansas, Toledo, Utah State and San Diego State. They were a dog in all of those. 

New Mexico isn't just a team they can beat, but beat rather easily. The Lobos have losses against the likes of Liberty and San Jose State. They also barely beat in-state rival New Mexico State 55-52. Aggies haven't won a game this season. Take Colorado State! 

3* WNBA - Mystics/Sun Finals Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Mystics PK -105

I like the Mystics to go on the road and wrap up the 2019 WNBA Finals with a win. Washington has all the momentum after a 94-81 road win in Game 3 and I think the Mystics are getting a huge boost from their star Elena Delle Donne, who is cleary playing hurt. 

Connecticut has really had no answer for Washington's offense in the series and I don't see that changing in Game 4. Mystics shot better than 50% from the field for the second time in the series. 

Backing us up is a big time system. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 are 27-6 (82%) if they come in having allowed 70 or more in 3 straight games and facing an opponent that has allowed 80 or more in their last 2. Take Washington! 

4* NFL - Browns/49ers MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Browns +4 -115

The Browns are definitely worth a look here getting more than a field goal against the 49ers. San Francisco is overvalued after their 3-0 start. 49ers are improved, but also haven't really been tested.

Their last two wins were against the Mason Rudolph led Steelers, which they were lucky to win, and the Bengals, who are now 0-5. Their 31-17 win over the Bucs in Week 1 looks decent, but they were actually outgained 295 to 256. Difference in the game was they had two interceptions returned for scores. 

Browns had that ugly 43-13 loss at home to the Titans and people were quick to jump off the bandwagon. They have won 2 of their last 3 since with the only loss to the Rams. They are coming off their best performance of the season, destroying the Ravens 40-25 in Baltimore. 

Browns have now covered 4 straight on the road and are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Cleveland! 

3* BEST BET on Sun -4½ -110

Analysis will be posted shortly

5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bengals -3 -110

Cincinnati is worth a look here as a mere 3-point home favorite. Even though these are two bad teams, I see a lot of value with the Bengals only needing to win by a field goal. Cincinnati is 0-4, but they have also played a brutal schedule with 3 of their first 4 on the road. Two of those against 1-loss teams in the Seahawks and Bills, the other at Pittsburgh on MNF. The lone home game was against the 49ers, who are undefeated. 

Arizona is definitely not a team you want to be trusting on the road. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray is struggling. Cardinals have scored 20 or fewer in each of their last 3. They had 27 in the opener, but they were down 24-6 in the 4th quarter. Outside of a 10-minute window in that 4th quarter, the offense hasn't showed us anything. 

I know the numbers aren't great for the Bengals defense, but they were more than solid in the two games against the Bills and Seahawks. They also should have won in Seattle week 1. I think they play well here. As for the offense, I think they score early and often in this one. Take Cincinnati! 

5* NFL - Bears/Raiders Late Info ATS NO-BRAINER on Bears -5½ -110

This game is being played in London and I think even with Trubisky out for Chicago this is an ideal spot to fade the Raiders. Given how bad the Bears offense has looked and the Raiders off an impressive 31-24 win at Indy the public might be tempted to play Oakland. 

What they are going to overlook is this being the 3rd straight road game for the Raiders and just how hard this is for NFL teams. Not to mention we saw how much Oakland's offense struggled against a good Vikings defense a couple weeks ago. Chicago's defense looks like the best in the league. Bears are allowing 11.2 ppg, holding teams almost 8-points under their average. Raiders only average 19.7 ppg and give up 25.5 ppg. Look for Chase Daniel to get the Bears offense going in this one. Take Chicago! 

3* NCAAF - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Boise State -22½ -110

I'm confident Boise State will return from their bye week with a blowout win at UNLV. Broncos are 4-0 with a win at Florida State and a couple of solid home wins over Marshall and Air Force. Hard to find a lot to complain about, but with a true freshman at QB a bye week can do wonders.

 I just don't see UNLV being able to keep pace offensively with Boise State. Outside of a sloppy 14 effort against Marshall, the Broncos have put 30+ on the board. The only team UNLV has held under 30 is Southern Utah. They gave up 43 to Arkansas State and 53 to Wyoming. Would not be surprised at all if Boise scored 50+. 

UNLV's offense put up 56 in the opener, but hasn't eclipsed 17 in the 3 games since. Boise State has held each of their last 3 teams under 20 points. I could see the Broncos having this spread covered early in the 1st half. Take Boise State! 

4* NCAAF - Nebraska/Northwestern BIG TEN PLAY OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -7 -108

It's really hard to back a team that just burned you, especially when they fail to cover in the manner than Nebraska did last week against Ohio State. Lot of people liked the Cornhuskers to at worse cover the 17-point spread. They lost 48-7 getting outgained by an embarrassing 349 yards (580 to 231). 

I think we are seeing a much lower number and a lot of value with only needing Nebraska to win by 8 or more. People are giving Northwestern credit for playing Wisconsin tough last week (lost 24-15 as a 22.5-point dog). However, I think some of that was the Badgers suffering a bit of a letdown off that emotional thumping of Michigan the previous week. 

I think the Northwestern offense is getting a pass for their anemic offensive numbers the last two games because it was against Michigan State and Wisconsin. They only had 210 yards and 7 points (scoreless through 3+ quarters) against a Stanford defense that has given up 45 on two different occasions. 

It's also a lot easier to pick yourself up after a blowout loss than it is a game where you lose in the final seconds. I think we get a big effort from Nebraska at home and I just don't see the Wildcats being able to keep it close. Take Nebraska! 

4* NCAAF- Auburn/Florida SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Auburn -2½ -112

As difficult as it is to bet against Dan Mullen as a home dog, I can't help myself by play Auburn at less than a field goal. I know Florida is 5-0 and ranked No. 10 in the country, but I don't see them as the 10th best team. Two of their five wins are against FCS foes. The other 3 against Miami, @ Kentucky and Tennessee. Wildcats and Vols are both bad and they only beat the Hurricanes by 4. Miami lost at UNC and only beat C Michigan by 5 at home. 

Auburn's 5-0 resume reads a little different. They got two Top 25 wins. One against then No. 11 Oregon and the other an impressive 28-20 win at No. 17 Texas A&M at night. They also played a really good Tulane team in non-conference and just whooped Mississippi State 56-23. 

Auburn has one of the best defensive fronts in the country and will be facing what I think is a very weak Florida offense that is down to No. 2 QB Kyle Trask. Trask has played okay against suspect competition, but I don't think he's prepared for what he will be up against on Saturday. Take Auburn! 

3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Iowa State -3 -110

I like the Cyclones to easily win by more than a field goal at home against the Horned Frogs. Iowa State comes in at 2-2 and off a crushing 23-21 loss at Baylor. A game they probably should have won, despite being down 20-0 going into the 4th quarter. They let another game get away late earlier this year against Iowa. This team could easily be 4-0. No way this line is 3 if they were. 

TCU just whooped up on Kansas, big deal. Even though the Jayhawks beat BC on the road earlier this year, that doesn't mean they are a serious threat in the Big 12. They are still the worst team in the conference. Prior to that they lost at home to SMU, who plays in the AAC. Their only other win vs a FBS opponent is a road win at Purdue with the Boilermakers down their starting QB. 

SMU put up 41 points and over 400 yards of offense against the Horned Frogs. I look for Brock Purdy and the ISU offense to have similar success. On the flip side of this, I look for the Cyclones defensive front to impose their will and make things difficult for a TCU offense that would much rather run than pass. Take Iowa State! 

5* NCAAF - Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Tech +10½ -110

Perfect opportunity to play into some overreactions and get a great number with the Red Raiders at home. No one wants anything to do with Texas Tech in this matchup. Red Raiders enter off back-to-back double-digit losses. First they fell 28-14 at Arizona and then returned from their bye with a 55-16 setback at Oklahoma. 

As for the Cowboys, they just won convincingly 26-13 at home over a ranked K-State team, improving to 4-1 on the year. Only loss a close defeat at Texas 36-30. Most will feel like 10 isn't enough for Tech to cover. 

Red Raiders are not as bad as people think. I think they show up with a max effort and will be a lot more potent in front of a rowdy home crowd with a ranked team visiting. Key to slowing to the Cowboys is not letting Chubba Hubbard get free. I think Tech's defense will be up to the task. If OK State doesn't bring their 'A' game, I could easily see the Red Raiders winning outright. Take Texas Tech! 

4* NCAAF - Early Bird Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Army +3 +100

The Black Knights are definitely worth a look here as a home dog against the Green Wave. In fact, my numbers suggest that Army should be the ones favored in this matchup. Black Knights should be 4-0. The only loss being that 21-24 setback at Michigan. 

I just think because they struggled in their opener with Rice (won 14-7 as a 23-point favorite), haven't really beat anyone of significance (other wins against UTSA and Morgan State) and the perception of how bad Michigan is, has the Black Knights undervalued. 

Jeff Monken has done an outstanding job with this program. After going just 6-18 his first two years, they are 32-11 with a perfect 3-0 record in bowl games. Tulane hasn't played since that epic 38-31 win and cover over Houston as a 4.5-point favorite a couple weeks ago.

Green Wave are 3-1 with their only loss at Auburn. This is definitely the best team yet for Willie Fritz at Tulane, but they are simply not worthy of being road favorites against a team like Army. Black Knights are giving up just 104 ypg and 3.3 yards/carry, so it's a good matchup against the run-heavy Tulane offense. Take Army! 

3* NCAAF - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY  on Kent State +36 -110

I think it's going to be tough for the Badgers to cover this massive spread against Kent State. I think it's one thing to get up for non-conference games when they are the first games on the schedule. Lot tougher when they are sandwiched around conference play.

Badgers are banged up right now. I expect them to just go through the basics, make sure they get a win and get guys rest up for next week's showdown with Michigan State. Also, last 6 times Wisconsin was off a conference win, they failed to cover the next time out. 

Kent State has also been covering machines against teams like Wisconsin. Golden Flashes are 9-1 ATS last 10 vs dominant ball control team, who average 32+ mins of possession and 21+ first downs. Take Kent State! 

5* NCAAF - Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH on South Alabama +10 -110

The public is all over Georgia Southern in this one, but yet we have seen the line keep dropping in favor of the Jaguars. I'm with the sharp money on this one, as I think we are getting great value with South Alabama as a double-digit home dog. 

Jaguars enter this game at 1-4, but it's been a pretty rough schedule. Of the 4 losses, 3 have come on the road against the likes of Nebraska, UAB and ULM. The other was a home game against Memphis. 

Georgia Southern is just 1-3 and were just beat badly at home by Lafayette last week, which really tells me this is not same caliber a Eagles team as the one that won 10-games last year. The Ragin' Cajuns outgained them 440 to 252 (lost by double-digits despite being +2 in turnover margin). 

Eagles are just 1-4 ATS last 5 overall, so the books are clearly overvaluing them of late. Jaguars are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take South Alabama! 

4* NFL - Public Massacre NO-BRAINER on Bills +7½ -110

Big time value here with Buffalo as a 7.5-point dog against the Patriots. I just think we are getting a little carried away with how good the Patriots have looked early on in 2019. They whooped the Steelers at home on SNF in Week 1. I know Pitt had Big Ben, but clearly that was the same offense without AB. They got a freebie in a game against Miami, who wants nothing at all to do with winning and lastly the Jets with their 3rd string QB under center. 

Bills are also 3-0, yet no one outside of Buffalo thinks this team is any kind of threat to make serious playoff run. That's probably accurate given the limited offense, but the defense the Bills got is the real deal. They had the No. 1 ranked pass D last year and have been every bit as good in that department this year.

Patriots got a lot key guys hurt right now and I think Brady and the offense struggles. IN both meetings last year and 3 of the last 4 overall, Bills have held the Pats to 25 or fewer points. I think the Bills do enough offensively to keep it within the number and maybe even win outright. Take Buffalo! 

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Lions +7 -115

Detroit is definitely worth a look at home getting a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes is the talk of the NFL. He looks even better than he did last year in his MVP season. They are one of the big public teams right now and no question the books have inflated the number here on KC. 

The Lions are a 18-point blown 4th quarter lead away from being 3-0. They knocked off a good Chargers team at home and went on the road and beat the Eagles. Instead of giving Detroit credit, people just assume those teams aren't as good as they thought because they lost to the Lions. 

Matt Patricia is doing a much better job than he gets credit for. Mahomes and that KC offense is going to score, but I think the Lions will be able to move the ball at will against a bad Chiefs defense that is due for a letdown after laying it all on the line against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. They also aren't as good on the road when they don't have that home crowd making things so difficult on the opposing offense. Take Detroit! 

4* NCAAF - Prime Time VEGAS INSIDER on North Texas -7 -110

We are simply playing against the Cougars after what's transpired in Houston this week. Senior  quarterback D'Eriq King and senior No. 2 wide out Keith Corbin have decided to use the new red-shirt rule (can red-shirt if you play 4 or fewer games) and sit out the rest of the season, so they can have another year of eligibility. 

I don't know how that can be something that head coach Dana Holgorsen turns into a positive. King was their best player. A guy that was in the Heisman conversation. To have him quit on the team has to have other guys in the locker room questioning what's the point of even playing these final 8 games. 

The defense was already bad and now you have to believe the offense will only regress after losing King and Corbin. North Texas will relish in the opportunity to kick an in-state rival when they are down and they got a big time talent at quarterback in Mason Fine. He should have a field day I see the Mean Green winning here in blowout fashion. Take North Texas! 

4* NCAAF - Big 12 ATS PLAY OF THE WEEK  on Oklahoma State -4 -101

You just have to trust the books whenever you see a line like this. You have an unranked team not only laying points, but laying more than a field goal against a team in the Top 25. Simply put, Oklahoma State is favored for a reason and I 100% agree. 

You have to like what Chris Klieman has done early on replacing the great Bill Snyder. They got a real impressive win on the road against a SEC West team in Mississippi State. I just think they might be getting too much credit for that win. Bulldogs are decent, but not as good as people thought coming into the year. 

Oklahoma State more than showed they got the talent to hang with the big boys, as they only lost 36-30 at No. 12 Texas and were only outgained by a mere 4 yards (498-494). I just think the combination of that Cowboys offense with the crazy atmosphere at home in a night game is enough to lay the short number. Take Oklahoma State! 

3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Indiana +14½ -110

Indiana is definitely worth a look at this price against the Spartans. Even though the Hoosiers come in off a 38-3 win and cover against UConn, no one is going to think anything of a win over UConn. People are still going to remember this team for that ugly 51-10 loss as a mere 17.5-point favorite at home against Ohio State. I just think this is the perfect time to buy low on this team, as we are going to get a big effort here from Tom Allen's team. 

Since Allen has come to Indiana they have progressively got better on the defense side of the ball. Given how Michigan State's offense has struggled, I think the Hoosiers can more than hold their own on that side of the ball. 

Another to keep in mind with that Ohio State loss, they didn't have starting quarterback Michael Penix. He was close to playing at UConn last week, but didn't end up going. He's still listed as questionable, but I would be shocked if he doesn't play. Even with Ramsey under center they can keep it within two touchdowns. Take Indiana! 

5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Notre Dame -11 -110

I was really impressed with the Irish in last week's loss to Georgia. The public was all over the Bulldogs in that game. While Notre Dame covered, I don't feel they did enough to sway the public back to the point they want to lay double-digits with them. 

In fact, I see the public looking to grab the points with Virginia. Not only are the Cavaliers ranked No. 18 and 4-0, most will see this as a letdown game for Notre Dame. I don't. I think Virginia is getting a little too much respect. They beat Pitt by 16, but only outgained them by 53 and Pitt led 14-13 at the half. They trailed FSU 24-17 in the 4th quarter and fell behind 17-0 to Old Dominion (still trailed 17-14 going into the 4th quarter).

I just don't think the Cavaliers offense is good enough to go into a hostile environment against a good Notre Dame defense and keep pace with Ian Book and the Irish offense. Irish are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home against a team with a winning road record. Chip Kelly will have this team ready to go off the tough loss. Take Notre Dame! 

3* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Central Michigan +17½ -109

I really think we are getting some great value with the Chippewas at this price. This is not just another game for these two in-state rivals. The Victory Cannon will be on the line and I think Central Michigan is more than capable of winning this game outright. 

I don't get what Western Michigan has done to get this kind of respect. They got blowout wins over Mommouth and Georgia State. Their two losses are at Michigan State by a final of 51-17 and at Syracuse 52-33. 

I get those are two ranked teams, but what kind of defense is that. The Spartans offense has been stagnant in all their other games and Syracuse hasn't score more than 24 in any of their other games. I got a lot more respect for Central Michigan's two losses to Power 5 teams. They got rolled 61-0 by a really good Wisconsin team and only lost 17-12 at Miami (FL). 

Chippewas are down starting QB QUinten Dormady, but I like backup David Moore to play well against this poor Broncos defense. Western Michigan has already lost last year's leading wide out D'Wayne Eskridge and their do it all back LeVante Bellamy is questionable to even play. Take Central Michigan +17.5! 

5* NCAAF - Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland +7 -110

Love the value here with the Terps as a touchdown dog against the Nittany Lions. It's not that Penn State isn't a talented team, they are extremely young and I just don't feel like they are the 12th best team in the country.

One of the more difficult thing for young/inexperienced teams is to play on the road in a hostile environment. That's where upsets happen and I think we could definitely see Maryland win this game outright. A lot of people were on the Terps after they crushed Syracuse, only to jump right off the ship after an upset loss at Temple. 

I wasn't surprised to see them stumble on the road against the Owls. The Terps were feeling themselves off that big win over a ranked team and the fact that they were a Top 25 team. I really like the skill players they got on the offensive side of the ball and former Va Tech quarterback, Joshua Jackson, looks really good in this offense.

I think they are going to have a big day against a Penn State defense that isn't as good as the numbers. Nittany Lions have somehow only given up 23 points in their last 2 games, despite allowing more than 800 yards of offense. Take Maryland! 

3* NFL - Eagles/Packers ATS ANNIHILATOR on Eagles +4½ -110

I think we are getting a great price here on the Eagles catching over a field goal against the Packers on Thursday Night Football. Philadelphia comes in at 1-2 and just lost at home to the Lions as a 4-point favorite. People are starting to second guess this team.

Packers on the other hand are 3-0 and have covered all 3. Public loves betting Aaron Rodgers and thus we get the value with Philadelphia. 

Eagles are really close to being 3-0. At the same time, it's not like the Packers are dominating teams. The defense has really carried them. Rodgers and that offense look out of sync in the scheme. The other thing is we don't really know if the defense is as good as it's looked.

Haven't exactly played the best signal callers with their first 3 against Tribusky, Cousins and Flaco. They also got some key guys banged up on that side that might miss this one. I think Wentz and that Eagles offense will be able to move the ball and wouldn't be shocked if the won the game outright. Take Philadelphia! 

5* NCAAF - American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy +11 -110

Navy is definitely worth a look here as a double-digit dog against Memphis on Thursday Night. Midshipmen went just 3-9 last year and were a team not many people were talking about in 2019 with just 8 starters back. However, this should be a much improved team (service academies are use to not having a lot of guys back) on both sides of the ball. 

They have looked great in their two games so far this season. They beat Holy Cross 45-7 as a 21.5-point favorite and East Carolina 42-10 as a 7.5-point favorite. Books weren't close with the number posted in either of those games. I think it's the same thing here. 

Navy has won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Memphis, including a 22-21 win as a 6.5-point dog last year. A lot of people are praising this Memphis defense cause it shutdown Ole Miss in the opener, but stopping the triple-option is not easy and all that running limits the number of possessions.

Midshipmen are 18-5 ATS last 23 as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points. Memphis is just 8-21 in their last 29 off a double-digit road win, 5-15 ATS last 20 after outgaining 2 straight teams by 125 or more yards and 0-8 ATS last 8 after gaining 525+ yards in their last two. Take Navy! 

5* NFL - Rams/Browns SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns +3½ -110

I really like Cleveland to cash in a win at home against the Rams, but you got to take the points to be safe. It took a couple of weeks, but we are finally starting to see the public back on Los Angeles. They won and covered as a small favorite at Carolina in Week 1 and blew out New Orleans 27-9 as a small home favorite in Week 2. 

I just don't think it's warranted. I don't know that Carolina is all we thought they would be. Newtown doesn't look like himself and they barely won that game. As for the victory over the Saints, they caught the ultimate break with Drew Brees going down to injury. 

This does not look like the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year, especially on the offensive side. Rams rank in the bottom half of the league at just 224.0 passing yards/game. Jared Goff is also a guy that historically plays much worse on the road. I think he's in for a long day here against Myles Garrett. He was a force against the Jets last week. 

You also have to play into the atmosphere here. It's going to be electric at FirstEnergy Stadium and I got a feeling this Browns team is going to play with a little more fight as an underdog. Take Cleveland! 

3* NFL - Vegas Line Mistake ATS SHOCKER on Jets +23 -110

I just think we are seeing a massive overreaction here with this line. I get New England is good and they won and covered on the road as a 18-point favorite in last week's 43-0 win at Miami, but the Dolphins simply aren't trying to be competitive. The Jets are down to third string QB Luke Falk, but they are no where close to as bad as Miami. No other team is. 

I know the offense was putrid in the loss the Browns on Monday Night Football, but I really like how the defense competed. I also think given how bad Trevor Siemian has been in this league and how bad he looked, Falk can't be much worse. 

We know the Jets are going to give it all as against the Patriots. There's no team they want to beat more than New England. I know the Pats are the last team you expect to have a letdown, but it's gonna be hard for them to take NY seriously enough to win going away. It could be 34-13 and we are golden. I don't know that NE scores that much. Take the Jets! 

4* NCAAF - Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford +10½ -105

I think this is the ideal spot to jump on Stanford after a couple of really ugly road losses to USC and UCF. I think it has the perception on Stanford way down going into this game. They didn't have K.J. Costello in the loss at USC and I think they just didn't have any juice left for that game at UCF (long travel). 

I expect a different looking Cardinal team on Saturday. That could be a big problem for the Ducks given all the hype they have been getting. Hard to imagine Oregon isn't sitting there thinking about how they are going to roll Stanford. I know they played Auburn tough in the opener, but I'm not sold on the Tigers being all that. 

Stanford head coach David Shaw has been a moneymaker in this spot. With the Cardinal he's 19-9 ATS at home in the first month of the season, 35-19 ATS last 54 vs a good offensive team that's averaging 5.9 yards/play and a perfect 10-0 ATS off 2 straight losses against the spread. Take Stanford! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Tulsa -3 -111

I'm dialed in on this Saturday's matchup with Tulsa and Wyoming. I not only like the Golden Hurricane, but I see a ton of value here with the UNDER as well. 

Tulsa's only two losses on the season are to Michigan State by 21 on the road and by 19 at home to Oklahoma State. While the final score against the Cowboys ended up being 40-19, they had a 21-20 lead at the half and were down by just 12 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. 

They gave up 506 yards to OKlahoma State, but a bunch of that was on big plays. Cowboys had a 75-yard TD run and 90-yard TD pass. Given how good Oklahoma State has looked, I thought for the most part that defense played well. Keep in mind this is a Tulsa defense that returned 8 starters from a unit that went from giving up 37.5 ppg in 2017 to only allowing 29.6 ppg. 

I think that defense will have no problem keeping Wyoming's offense in check. They only scored 23 in a 9-point win over a bad Texas State team and 7 of those came on a 72-yard pick six with them down 14-13 in the 3rd quarter. They followed that up with just 21 in a mere 5-point win over Idaho and were only up 14-13 before a 80-yard TD run in the 4th (only pts 2nd half). 

Easy for Tulsa to win by 3, but I also think the Wyoming's defense is good enough to keep the Golden Hurricane from putting up a ton of points. I see this something like 27-10 in favor of the home team. Take Tulsa & UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Small Conference PLAY OF THE YEAR on Ohio -3 -110

Absolutely love Ohio here as a small 3-point home favorite against the Ragin Cajun's. This is the perfect time to buy low on the Bobcats and sell high on Lafayette. Ohio didn't cover in their opener against Rhode Island, despite winning by 20+, and then lost back-to-back on the road against Pittsburgh and Marshall. Two games they were expected to lose, but nonetheless there's nothing to get you excited about with Ohio. 

Key here is that this is one of Frank Solich's better teams he's had at Ohio and a lot of people have them as the best team in the MAC this year. They are going to be chomping at the bit take the field at home, where they have are 1-0 this year and 48-13 over the previous 10 seasons (12-1 since 2017). 

As for Lafayette they covered against Mississippi State in the opener and followed that up with back-to-back blowout wins and covers at home against Liberty and Texas Southern. The close call against the Bulldogs looks less impressive after Miss St lost at home to K-State and that Liberty team they beat lost 24-0 to a bad Syracuse team. 

Ohio lost by just 2-points last week at Marshall and that's worth noting, as the Bobcats are 12-4 ATS under Solich off a loss by 3 or less. They have also covered 16 of their last 20 vs a team that's outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg (Lafayette +27.4 ppg). Take Ohio! 

4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on UMass +17 -110

I think there's more than enough value here to take a flyer on the Minutemen. Far from an easy play to stomach given UMass has not covered in any of their games and lost outright by 25 as a 5.5-point home favorite to Southern Illinois. 

However, the books know the betting public will want absolutely nothing to do with this UMass team, so we can feel good about the number we are getting. I just don't feel like a road win over Kansas justifies the Chanticleers laying 3 scores on the road. 

As bad as UMass is defensively, Coastal Carolina is far from an offensive juggernaut. They only put up 23 at home to E Michigan and a mere 12 in the win against the Jayhawks. Not to mention, the Chanticleers got the defending Sun Belt champs on deck in Appalachian State. Take UMass!

5* NCAAF - C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech -9 -109

This is a no-brainer for me to lay single digits at home with Louisiana Tech against the FIU Panthers. Something just isn't right with this FIU team. The Panthers are a team that was suppose to be a contender in C-USA with 16 starters back from a 9-win team. I just feel like the books are being slow to adjust. 

They got embarrassed by Tulane 42-14 on the road in Week 1 and were a mere 3-point dog in that matchup. They then lost at home as a 7.5-point favorite to WKU. They finally get a win last week over New Hampshire, but only won 30-17 as a 13.5-point favorite. 

The offense has not looked great, especially the passing game. Starting quarterback James Morgan, who was great for them last year is dealing with an ankle injury, but it felt like he was already losing time to backup Kaylan Wiggins. The defense has also been sub-par, especially against run. 

I just don't see the Panthers being able to keep pace with J'Mar Smith and the Bulldogs offense. Smith has been playing at a high level. He had 331 yards and 2 scores against Texas, so it's hard to see FIU keeping in check. 

Panthers come in averaging 307 ypg. There have been only 6 times as the head coach of the Bulldogs that Skip Holz has faced a team that averages 310 or fewer yards. Holtz and the Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in this spot with an average margin of victory of 21.6 ppg. Take Louisiana Tech! 

4* NFL - Titans/Jags Thurs Night VEGAS INSIDER on Jaguars +2

The betting public is all over the Titans in this one and I'm not sure why. I really like the value here with Jacksonville as a home dog. I think the Jags are undervalued for a lot of reasons. For one they are 0-2, they got embarrassed in Week 1 at home by the Chiefs and lost starting QB Nick Foles, who was their prized free agent pickup. Not to mention the recent headlines of Jalen Ramsey wanting traded. 

Jacksonville was a 2-point conversion away from winning outright as a 9-point underdog at Houston in Week 2. The loss of Foles sucks, but I've liked what I've seen out of rookie Gardner Minshew. I don't know that the drop off from Foles is as big as people think. I thought Foles was more a product of the system in Philadelphia than anything. 

The other thing is the Jaguars still have one of the best defenses in the league. They just got exposed by Mahomes and that potent Chiefs offense in Week 1. They were really good against Deshaun Watson last week. Titans offense is not good. They are also not the team you want to back as a road favorite. With Marcus Mariota as the starter, Tennessee is 3-7 ATS as a favorite. Take Jacksonville! 

5* NFL - Browns/Jets MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +3 -110

I liked the Jets when the line first came out and while the Darnold news is not ideal, I still like New York to make a game of this at home on Monday Night Football. Jets still have Le'Veon Bell to keep the offense moving and this Browns defense is not as good as people think. They let Marcus Mariota threw for 250 yards and 3 scores and gave up over 120 yards on the ground. 

That same Titans offense managed just 242 total yards at home in a Week 2 loss to the Colts. I know Trevor Siemian has not been great as a starter, but a lot of those starts were on bad teams. I think he outperforms expectations in a big way here. Take New York! 

3* NFL - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Broncos +3 -125

The public is all over the Bears as a small road favorite, but I really like Denver to knock off Chicago at home in Week 2. I get the Broncos didn't look great in that Week 1 loss at Oakland, but I think they were surprised with how well the Raiders played. I think Denver might have thought that was going to be a lot easier after AB was released. 

Denver is also a very difficult place to play and a lot of these Bears players aren't use to the thin air of Mile High. I think that impacts the Bears defense and that Chicago offense looked way out of sync in Week 1 against Green Bay. Hard to win on the road if you can't score. Take Denver! 

5* NFL - AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders +7½ -110

Love the value here with Oakland getting over a touchdown at home against the Chiefs. I really liked what I saw from the Raiders in their win over Denver on MNF in Week 1. This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder from all that AB drama. 

They are going to give everything they got to beat their rival in KC. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense looked great in Week 1, but the problem is the defense. Kansas City did a lot to try and get better on that side of the ball only to watch a rookie in Gardner Minshew complete 22 of 25 against them. 

Add in the loss of Tyreek Hill for that Chiefs offense and I think Oakland can make a game of this. Also this a really tough traveling spot for KC having to go from playing at Jacksonville in Week 1 to the complete other side of the country in California. Take the Raiders! 

4* NCAAF - Prime Time PUBLIC SHOCKER on UCLA +24½ -110

No way the public is going to want anything to do with UCLA against Oklahoma. The books know this and I think we are getting exceptional value here because of it. I think the Bruins aren't just going to cover, but give the Sooners a bit of a scare. 

It's not easy for midwest teams to go out west and play in a different time zone. I also think it could be hard for Oklahoma to take this UCLA team seriously after watching them start out 0-2 with losses to Cincinnati and San Diego State. More so how bad the offense has looked. With the way they are scoring, it will be hard for them to see the Bruins keeping it close. 

The thing is, both Cincinnati and San Diego State are two of the better Group of 5 teams in the country. They are also two teams built around their defense. Oklahoma is trying to get better on defense, but I don't think they are quite there. Chip Kelly is too good an offensive coach to not get that offense producing.

Sooners are 1-5 ATS last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a SU win by 20+ points. Take UCLA! 

5* NCAAF - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa +14½ -105

Absolutely love the value here with Tulsa as a two touchdown dog at home against the Cowboys. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of the Golden Hurricane to start out 2019. Tulsa kept it closer than just about everyone expected in a 28-7 loss at Michigan State in Week 1 as a 23.5-point dog. 

Instead of giving the Golden Hurricane's defense for going on the road and holding the Spartans to 28 points and just 303 total yards, they just wrote it off as Michigan State's offense being bad. That kinda doesn't work after watching the Spartans put up 51 points and 582 yards in a 34-point win at home against Western Michigan.

Tulsa's defense wasn't spectacular at San Jose State last week, but that second straight game on the road is always tough, plus it was a huge sandwich spot. Teams that can keep Oklahoma State's offense from getting into a rhythm tend to have a lot of success against them. Should be a rowdy crowd, as this is also their home opener. Outright win is definitely a possibility. Take Tulsa!