Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports - Consistent Long term winning results. Get the info the books do not want you to have.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 22, 2017
Wolves vs Thunder
Thunder
-4 -105 at 5Dimes
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

Last night in Utah Russell Westbrook looked surprisingly below average for the Oklahoma City Thunder in a loss. His energy levels as well as his teammates were very low in the team looked completely out of sync and tired looking. Tonight at home in a matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves I expect he and his team will rebound in a big way. After posting a triple-double in a season-opening victory vs the NY Knicks, Westbrook recorded just six points on 2-of-11 shooting in 36 minutes of shabby play. This type of low level of play by the MVP was only the third time in his 10-year career that he has been held to six or less points while playing at least 30 minutes. Something that stood out to me, is that Westbrook is shooting 40.4 percent from 3-point range in 31 career games against the Timberwolves, which is his highest mark against all but two other NBA sides, which gives me credence in my belief he will bounce back in a big way and play hard with Carmelo Anthony and P George tonight at home in front of their own fans. I know the Wolves are a fine young team, but this is a beatable spread for the Oklahoma City Thunder backers .Meanwhile, the Timberwolves won their home opener the other night in a hard fought battle vs Utah, but it must be noted that from a recent performance betting standpoint that not a good thing as the Timberwolves are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Timberwolves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.Timberwolves are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-12 ATS L/35 as a home favorite and is 14-4 ATS L/18 in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.


NBA Home favorites like Oklahoma City - marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games, vs. division opponents are 25-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Bengals vs Steelers
Bengals
+5½ -110 at 5Dimes
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

The Pittsburgh Steelers are off a hard fought win vs the KC Chiefs last week, as they derailed the Chiefs undefeated season. Now in a letdown spot, vs the Cincinnati Bengals I'm betting they won't easily get by a well rested Bengals side off a bye week. It must be noted that the Bengals are 8-0 ATS L/8 after a bye week when facing a division foe with an above .500 record like the Steelers . Meanwhile, the Steelers are an ugly 1-5 ATS as chalk  against a rested side with a below .500 record and 1-5 ATS as a home favorite after a victory as a dog and Big Ben Roethlisberger is also 1-5 ATS L/6 after a SU underdog win in his career. It must also be noted that in my most recent power ranking projections that I consider the Bengals to be the most under rated team in the NFL at the moment and other than their opening loss have been extremely competitive.

CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS  L/6 in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.HC  Tomlin of the Steelers  is 2-10 ATS  L/12 off 4 or more consecutive unders

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Steelers  - in a game involving two average teams (plus/minus  3 PPG differential.), after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are just 18-45 ATS over the L/24 seasons.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Saints vs Packers
Saints
-4 -110 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

I'm not going to be shy about this , two time MVP QB Aaron Rodgers, was a one man wrecking crew for the Green Bay Packers. When he went down last week vs the Minnesota Vikings with a broken collar bone, I'm sure  the Packer nations hearts were broken and the fragments flushed down the proverbial toilet on a promising season. With that said,  I'm not a fan  of his replacement Brett Hundley, and feel strongly the Packers are now at a big disadvantage despite of playing at home this week vs New Orleans. Green Bay even when Rodgers was healthy never did very well against NFC South opposition going a sub par 9-11 SU . The last time Green Bay played without Rodgers 4 seasons ago they won only 2 of 7 games , and were just 0-4 ATS at home. Note: The  Saints have given up an opponent passer rating of 56.7 during their current three-game winning streak.

Projected score: New Orleans 27 Green Bay 17

Play on the Saints to cover  

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Panthers vs Bears
OVER 40½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

The Carolina Panthers well rested after playing and losing last Thursday enter this game having gone over in 4 straight games with the combined average of 57.2 ppg gong on the board. This Sunday after their sleepy looking effort last time out will come out with all guns blazing looking for redemption and drag the Bears into a wider open affair than the lines-makers expect as is evident by the total. This I'm betting helps us easily eclipse this Total.

It must noted that the Bears are 7-0 OVER L/7 vs all teams off a Thursday night game. Carolina has gone OVER in their L/4 after a Thursday night tilt.

My own projections estimate that Carolina's offense averaging 27.7 ppg on the road this season will once again put between 24-28 points on the board, again, vs a Bears side that has allowed 24.7 ppg on defense this season. On the flipside, I'm seeing upward momentum in Chicago's offense, scoring 27 points last week. I'm expecting them to put more than 22 points on the board again, which is significant since they are a long term 75-24 OVER when they score 22 to 28 points with a combined average of 46.1 ppg getting scored in those tilts. Carolina is 53-23 OVER when they allow 22 to 28 points with a combined average of 46.8 ppg getting scored.


CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games in October games dating back 3 seasons for a combined average of 64 ppg going on the board. Carolina's HC Rivera is 7-0 OVER L/7 in road games against NFC North division opponents with a combined average of 55.3 ppg getting scored.

NFC North vs NFC South Games have gone over 11 of the L/12 times when a line of -5 or less.

The L/3 meetings here in Chicago have seen an average of 54.3 ppg scored.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Falcons vs Patriots
Patriots
-3 -120 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

The New England Patriots looked like they had lost last years Super Bowl before they  pulled off the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL and left the Atlanta Falcons and their fans in shock with a unlikely 34-28  victory. At one point in the 3rd quarter Atlanta was up 28-3 before the Pats woke up and decided to thrash their opponents. Now the word REVENGE is making the rounds , as Atlanta fans and their betting backers bet on this scenario playing out. However, with said, it must be noted in life that you don't always get what you want. You have to remember, that New England has won 5 championships, and are probably the best coached team in football with Belichick at the helm, and arguably the best money QB in the game Tom Brady. These guys are as big as life, and whether they show it or not are ego driven, and will not take kindly to the Falcons wanting to come here and show the world that they are the better team, and last years loss was an anomaly. Instead I expect the Pats will primed to hand out another spanking, this time taking no chances and playing a complete focused game, which is not a good omen for a Falcons side that has shown big gaps in concentration over the last few seasons, despite of their top tier talent levels.

Atlanta 's HC Quinn is 4-13 ATS  L/17 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better.Belichick is 38-16 ATS  L/54 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6  or more yards/play winning on average by over a TD.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more  yards/play.

NEW ENGLAND is 10-0 ATS L/17 after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games.

The Patriots are 15-0 ATS /SU  covering by over 14.8 ppg on turf vs non-divisional opponent that is averaging 13+ passing first downs per game, including last season's super bowl vs the Atlanta  Falcons.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.