Wide receiver Keenan Allen return for the Chargers Philip Rivers was like getting the band back together. The Los Angeles offense the past couple weeks has functioned more like when Rivers was younger and Allen presence has freed up other players, with Rivers is taking full advantage of this. With Cleveland the second-worst defensive team in allowing points at 26.3 PPG, it would seem Carson, CA's favorite football team should exploit this. With the total at 43, the Browns have shown the ability to give points away and score in the fourth quarter of games that are over, which could provide a backdoor cover if necessary. Additionally, road teams like Cleveland scoring 17 or less points a game, after tallying that many or less in two straight contests are 28-5 OVER the next time out. 

Among the lowest scoring teams in the league are San Francisco at 17 points a game and Chicago right behind them at 16.1 PPG. In spite of this, neither team has played an inordinate amount of low scoring contests, though the Bears are close at 7-4 UNDER. However, if you subtract each club's highest scoring total in their past five outings, the Niners come in at 10.7 PPG and Chicago at 11.7 PPG. Maybe Jimmy Garoppolo provides a spark for San Fran, but the average score for both teams in road/home situations is below 40 points, which leads to an UNDER play. 

Two of the three shutouts Baltimore has have come against backup quarterbacks and this week they face Tom Savage, whose had a penchant for turnovers. In Houston's last four outings, they have 10 turnovers, which could be a Ravens feast! The Texans defense has been beatable all year in surrendering 26.2 PPG and this seems a great time to feed RB Alex Collins the rock, which would help Joe Flacco in the passing game. With Flacco and the Birds 6-0 ATS after winning by 20+ points and Houston 1-9 ATS under the Monday night lights, it's Baltimore by double digits. 

Philadelphia has the top scoring offense in the NFL at 32 PPG and they are 6-4 OVER on the season, so where does the idea of a lower score come into play? The Chicago defense has not played poorly and is middle of the pack at 22.1 PPG allowed. Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense has piled up the points, yet I wonder off big Dallas victory and having a three-game road trip on deck starting in Seattle, if we will Philly at its best. The Bears are 27th in ringing up points at 17.4 PPG and it would take quite an imagination to think they will push past that figure, with Philadelphia holding opponents to 16.6 PPG in last half dozen contests. 

Marcus Mariota might not be the franchise quarterback Tennessee envisioned after deplorable performance in Pittsburgh. Mariota had four interceptions and played like a rookie instead of a three-year veteran who knows the ropes. The Titans have four winnable contests on tap starting this week but can you really trust a team that is 6-15 ATS in road games and 0-7 ATS away after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored? One can only assume that Andrew Luck will be ready for 2018 campaign. While that is in the future, Jacoby Brissett has established himself as someone who can play at this level and though he makes mistakes, he's made strides to make the Colts more competitive than anyone would have imagined. Also, the Indianapolis defense has stepped there play and held last three opponents to 19.3 PPG. Indy by 1!

The first game of the day is Minnesota at Detroit and if the Lions have any hope of chasing down the Vikings it has to win this contest. If Detroit does not win, they would be three games behind Minnesota in the NFC North race and join the masses in the NFC trying to hunt down a wild card slot. Those betting football are not liking the Lions chances and have pushed them from a Pick to +3. Minnesota is one of the top teams in their conference and are No.5 in the NFL in total offense and No.4 in total defense. While Detroit is expected to play the Vikings close, Minnesota is 11-2 ATS after three or more consecutive spread covers. Vikes by 6

When I first saw this game I was going to pass on two slumping 3-6 teams. Then I started working the numbers. Turns out in all six scenarios, they have Denver winning by 5 to 7 points. While it might not be my favorite game of the week, it would be foolish by me to ignore the numbers.

Talk about bad timing. If Oakland could ever use a home game, this would have been the week, coming off a bye, trying to make a playoff push and taking on New England. Instead, they surrendered another matchup to Mexico City. With the Patriots staying at altitude this week in Denver before traveling south, they will look forward to Raiders defense that 22nd against pass and has yet to register an interception. New England is incredible 9-2 ATS as away favorites. Though the Raiders had questions coming into the season after 12-4 campaign, now there is even more and the solutions are not evident besides the clichéd, "everyone has to play better". Patriots by 12.

With a victory at Lambeau Field, Baltimore is in the thick of the wild card race at 5-5. There is nothing striking about the Ravens, being a better than average defensive crew and below average offensive team with Joe Flacco rather ordinary and not having many game-changing players to alter scoreboards quickly. Flacco has averaged 5.38 yards per attempt on the road this season, worst in NFL. Since the start of the 2015 season, Flacco has thrown 21 interceptions away from home, tied for second most in the league. Baltimore opened as favorites, yet are 1-8-1 ATS in nonconference contests since 2015. When coach Mike McCarthy finally took the shackles of Brett Hundley in crucial fourth quarter against Chicago, he responded with three sharp passes and running for first down. Packers win at Lambeau.

At 4-4 and 2-6 ATS, Atlanta is not close to the same club as a year ago. Everyone understands the play-caller deal is a "thing", yet that person has not committed a fumble, dropped a pass or thrown an interception yet. The Falcons have played like in a mental fog all year and with upcoming slate, unless they shake lethargy, they will be home this postseason. Atlanta is 1-8 ATS after a loss by six or less points. Dallas arrives in Atlanta playing up to their potential and on an even keel. The Cowboys have turned off the exterior noise and are just playing their game and should be rather confident coming in even without Zeke (for a game). Dallas is 8-1 ATS after two or more covers. 

Houston QB Tom Savage was savagely bad in loss to Indianapolis. Heading west to take on the Rams is not going to make the situation better, especially since the Texans could not contain Jacoby Brissett passing for Indianapolis and what Jared Goff and L.A. has to offer is far more lethal. How dynamic have the Rams been, they are the 11th team in the Super Bowl era to post at least three wins with a margin of victory of 30-plus points in the team's first eight games. If you are not mentally ready to play or quit against this L.A. North crew, you will be punished. The spread on this matchup might be large, but how does Houston play with the Rams in the contest? L.A. by 14 or more.

Jacksonville shed their inconsistent ways last week in victory over Cincinnati. The Jaguars have found ways to lose for years, but thanks to coach Doug Marrone and several coaching hires, Jacksonville is playing with increased maturity and is not thrown off by events they cannot control. I was super impressed the Jags did not waver after learning Leonard Fournette was not going to play last Sunday because of discipline and they still rushed for 148 yards and put up over 400 yards of offense on what had been a reliable Bengals defense. Part of Jacksonville's newfound confidence is they have one of the best defense's in the NFL, which has given up one or fewer touchdowns in five of eight outings this season. Though the Chargers are playing much better recently, they still are 0-6 ATS after two or more UNDER's and I will give the -4.5 with the Jaguars. 

Whether the stunning upset of Seattle saves Washington's season, that will be determined in time, nonetheless, it was a team win with a bruised and battered squad that is trying to hang in. As if the Seahawks defense was not tough enough, next is Minnesota for the Redskins, who is fourth in total defense and rested. The Vikings at 6-2 (5-3 ATS) are in a good position and with QB Case Keenum wisely managing games and improved offensive line, Minnesota is built to stay in games and close them out with a lead. Minny is 28-13 ATS and 11-2 ATS after two or more consecutive wins the past three years. 

Is this the week for the 49ers to scratch in the win column? Given Arizona like themselves seldom plays a complete game, if San Francisco could jump on the Cardinals and get a confidence-boosting lead, they might seize the moment. With a decimated O-Line and rookie quarterback, the window of opportunity is small. Arizona is in a similar situation to the Niners, with a mediocre offensive line and at best below average quarterback with Carson Palmer out. With the Cards 7-16 ATS since last season and San Fran 9-2 ATS in division, they win for the first time in 2017. 

It is really too bad what has happened to Washington. The Redskins began the year with a much improved defense and still had one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. After beating Oakland, game by game the injuries really began mounting and what the Redskins had going, was pulling apart at the seams. Moving ahead to Week 9, Washington has all kinds of issues stopping the run, finding a consistent pass rush and protecting Kirk Cousins. Having just lost home games to Philadelphia and Dallas, a trip to Seattle against Seahawks defense that permitted 38 points at home is hardly a good situation. With Seattle 11-3 ATS at home after scoring 30 or more points and having matching spread record as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Seahawks soar to 14-point victory. 

With how New Orleans is playing, neither the Falcons or Panthers can afford to fall any further behind the Saints in this meaningful NFC South showdown. Atlanta ended their three-game losing streak and is not gaining bettors support at only 2-5 ATS, with four spread losers in a row. The Falcons realize they will have to prepare for physical battle, since this is Carolina's style. The Panthers defensively are playing more aggressively and on the season are blitzing 17 percent more often with new coordinator. The Carolina offense remains spotty but I like this situation with Atlanta now favored. Play Against same conference teams when the line is +3 to -3 like the Falcons, after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games. (37-12 ATS)

Maybe Dallas just needed time off. The Cowboys played with great energy in smashing San Francisco. The offense was finally balanced and they will face a weakened Washington defense, with the Redskins on a short week. Over time, the Cowboys have been a weak wager after a 21 or more point blowout, however, recently, they are 9-2 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. With Washington essentially three games back in the NFC East after being swept by Philadelphia, they need to turn their attention to the wild card. The Redskins are in a tough spot like many teams, saddled with injuries and no real solutions to overcome them. Dallas by 6. 

Outside of six quarters of football, the Cincinnati offense has not done much. NFL analysts have regularly vilipend the Bengals offensive line, who is not passing blocking to give Andy Dalton time to throw nor created many running lane for backs. Cincy did score 31 points against Cleveland and being able to do battle with Indianapolis should raise the Bengals scoring average with the Colts conceding a league-worst 31.7 points a contest. With the listed total at 42, all we need from Indy is their season average 17 PPG. For good measure, the Colts are 9-1 OVER as a road underdog the last two seasons, with average total score 54.6. 

With both these NFC South squads on losing streaks, this contest could very well set the tone for the rest of the season, good or bad. Carolina is slowing but surely returning to lethargic bunch from a year ago, which was unable to overcome barely any tough times. After 4-1 start, the Panthers look discombobulated and have 10 turnovers in past five games. Tampa Bay keeps digging holes they cannot crawl out of later in games and unless they start fast at home against Carolina, their playoffs hopes are close to dashed. The Bucs need urgency from the start, not when down 14-0. Tampa Bay also has issues with the 'Cats at home with 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS records. 

As bad as it's been in Cleveland it seems to be getting worse. Coach Hue Jackson wants to win so desperately he keeps changing quarterbacks like he's Steve Spurrier. NFL players know what is going on and it would seem the ship is sinking in Cleveland again and not having much talent is a completely different discussion. For Minnesota, coach Mike Zimmer will tell his team about how great it would be to have a 6-2 record at the bye week. The Vikings have figured out to lean on defense and running game and let Case Keenum throw enough to make plays and let the opposing team makes mistakes. It is a rather simple formula and one that would seem a perfect match to defeat the Browns by 13 or more points.

The Giants flabbergasting win at Denver perfectly sums up what a wild ride this NFL season has been. New York had no dependable wide receivers, an at best unstable running game and aging Eli Manning and THEN coach Ben McAdoo gives up calling plays. The G-Men out of nowhere have 300 yards rushing in last two contests. Go figure. Seattle will not be bothered by travel off a bye and should lock down what few weapons New York have. The Giants defense simply is not the same and Seattle wins by 12.

Baltimore's loss to Chicago pointed to the absurd. The Ravens had two special teams touchdowns and still was beaten at home by the Bears. Baltimore offense managed only 291 yards in four-plus quarters and committed three turnovers. Joe Flacco is not helping matters, but neither are all the dropped passes. The Ravens are 1-8 ATS after a loss by six or less points the last three years. Case Keenum has been a savior for Minnesota with Sam Bradford injured again. The Vikings are positioned to win the NFC North with Aaron Rodgers expected to miss the rest of the season. We know what the Minnesota defense is capable of and if they can sustain running game watch out. With the Vikes 16-5 ATS at home the past three seasons, Minny by 13. 

Among the rules of handicapping is sticking to your principles and the Jets having 16-5 ATS record who fit something I normally believe in. Another rule of modern handicapping is don't stick to one mode of looking at games. Some handicappers only look for underdogs to cover and some years that works great and other times you will lose your shirt and much more. I am looking at Miami squad coming off of huge win at Atlanta on the road which takes them over .500 and gives them two consecutive victories. After tumultuous start of the season and losing Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins are settling into normal routine and was a playoff club a year ago and they have better defense. The Jets are giving great effort, but Miami wins by 10.

It has been a brutal week Pittsburgh with a great deal of talk about Ben Roethlisberger maybe being washed up, prima donna running backs and receivers saying they need the ball more and the run defense either very good or very bad. This does not seem like ideal week to face 5-0 Kansas City. However, this could be a 'circle the wagons' game for the Steelers, who are 6-0 ATS in road games  versus rushing defenses allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards a carry. Kansas City has the better offensive numbers to this point, but Pittsburgh is +90 in defensive yards. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS and have not committed a turnover is four games, those streaks just don't keep happening. Steelers by 1.

The Detroit offense is best described as sporadic, ranked 29th in total yards and always seemingly scrambling in the fourth quarter when trailing. Matthew Stafford has been a bit less accurate to this juncture and had he's faced more pressure in the pocket to go along with below average running game and enters this game banged up. The New Orleans defense have done one the quickest turnarounds, surrendering 65 points in initial two games, to 13 points in previous two outings. Reasons vary, but Saints coaches are saying "focus and having right players on the field" has flipped the switch. This is third straight meeting in New Orleans and fourth overall and the Lions are 3-0 ATS. However, teams coming back from London and having a week off are 8-0-1 ATS.

Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees a shootout right? I am thinking the opposite and here is why. Both defenses are playing better and while Detroit had coverage issues with Can Newton, that has not been the norm this season. I wish I could explain New Orleans defense. Had contact tell Saints defense was vastly improved in August and after two games I called and mocked his information. He called me after Miami shutout and asked what I thought. They have ironed out what was wrong and I like the Lions pass run and improved run defense. With Detroit 12-3 UNDER on the road in conference clashes the past three seasons and 9-1 UNDER away off a home game, I will back the UNDER big time. 

CBS get an unexpected surprise by having two division leaders from the NFC for their Thursday night telecast. Coach Doug Pederson has his detractors and rightly so, yet he's also collected a nice contingent of talent and QB Cason Wentz has accelerated Philadelphia's improvement. Now approaching 100 percent, Cam Newton is playing back to Super Bowl level of two years ago, while taking fewer hits. Ed Dickson stepping up at TE is a massive, plus and the Carolina defense is playing to ability level. Pending the results of Green Bay and Atlanta games Sunday, the winner certainly can make a claim as the best team in the NFC. The Panthers are 18-6 ATS at home versus teams averaging 375 or more yards per game and win by 7!

The search for a quality starting quarterback in Houston is over. Deshaun Watson was special at Clemson and after two starts he might take the Lone Star state by storm. You could see the trust in the faces of Texans' players as Watson made play after play and had command of still somewhat limited knowledge of Houston offense. Kansas City coach Andy Reid will have new wrinkles for new pup, but Watson has been a quick study. The Chiefs are the lone unbeaten team and they are the most efficient team both on offense and defense in football. However, Houston has the run defense to slow Kansas City and good as the K.C. has been particularly on offense, they are 0-7 ATS after gaining six or more yards a play in four consecutive games. Texans by 4.

Green Bay will be at Jerry's World this week, the same place they knocked Dallas out of the postseason back in January. The Packers pulled off a 34-31 upset and both teams blew by the total of 53.This time sportsbooks sent out a total of 53.5 and it has been lowered to 52.5 or 52.I think the public has this wrong. Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott are both capable of big games and are surrounded by players that can make that happen. Since the season opener for both clubs, the defenses have not been close to dominating and when to realize these two are 10-1 OVER playing each other in the Lone Star State, you can now understand what I have bet on. 

The Rams are on a 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS when hosting Seattle and are playing their best football in several years. Naturally one would think they are in prime position to knock the Seahawks off once again, right? I say wrong, and it comes down to a simple level of motivation for the Seahawks. In all five of those past games, Seattle was the team expected to win, playing as a road favorite all five times. Naturally, HC Pete Carroll’s team was all too familiar with being the “hunted” team. Now, they are the hunter, and I think you’ll find a highly motivated Seahawks’ team take the field on Sunday because of it. Seattle is also coming off its best game of the year this past Sunday, so it’s almost ideal timing for a game with this level of divisional magnitude. Of course, they have been in big games like this for most of the past five or six seasons. It is Los Angeles that is new to the big game scene, and while they might have the confidence and are playing well, the Rams’ lack of big game experience as well as a likely empty stadium won’t be enough to put them over the top. Seattle wins a hotly contested affair.

Buffalo is off to stunning start seeing the front office seemed to right off 2017 by trading a couple of their best players in the preseason. But give the Bills and new coaching staff credit for taking the approach of rebuilding is for another Buffalo team, not this one and they are playing fantastic defense and mistake-free offense. Cincinnati finally got first victory last week and the new offensive coordinator is playing to Andy Dalton's strengths, with the deeper passes coming. The Bengals were obviously better than 0-3 and should have knocked off Green Bay. In this AFC matchup, I am just not convinced Buffalo can win two straight on the road and or cover the spread in this situation. Cincy by 6 or 7 over the Bills. 

It was not a good first month for the state of Ohio football. The Buckeyes were upset at home by Oklahoma and Cincinnati and Cleveland have yet to get in the win column. It is not a total surprise the Browns are winless coming of 1-15 campaign, but seeing the Bengals at 0-3 is head scratcher. Cincy enters this Battle of Ohio as field goal favorite and finally showed they are capable of winning, taking Green Bay to OT at Lambeau Field, but unable to put them away. The Browns will be motivated to pick their first win of the year, but are 2-10 ATS as home underdogs since 2015. 

Last week, Tennessee essentially dominated Seattle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball for three quarters, until what seemingly always occurs in the NFL, the team trailing has a comeback to make those on the other team squirm when watching. Houston did not dominate New England, but they certainly went toe to toe with them. The Texans defense, like many before them could not stop Tom Brady as crunch time and lost. Look for Houston to be super motivated at home, not wanting to fall two games behind the Titans after just a quarter of the season and remember, Tennessee is 2-9 ATS playing against a team with a losing record. Houston Outright!

There were warning signs Miami might struggle even against the Jets and they all proved to be true in 20-6 loss that was not that close. This is terrible time for Miami to have London game, having not played at home yet and Dolphins fans are wondering was the setback a wake-up call or a sign of things to come for Miami? The Fins are ugly 15-34 ATS off two road games. We won't know for weeks if New Orleans really saved their season with upset at Carolina, however, they saved themselves from 0-3 start. Given this will not be a home game for Miami, that has to be advantageous for the Saints, who are 8-1 ATS off a division clash.