The storyline is nothing more than youth vs. experience. New England has experience in spades, while the Rams have the ignorance of youth and the belief after trailing 13-0 at New Orleans, when it should have been at 20-0, they can overcome anything. At this point, one would be silly to say anything bad about the New England, as Bill Belichick has decades of football experience and the Patriots have gone with numerous old school formations and plays in the last two weeks to confuse Baltimore and Kansas City.

The Rams, their head coach Sean McVay was 16 when the B &B combination won their first Super Bowl and Jared Goff was in first grade. McVay grandfather is John McVay, who worked in the front office for the San Francisco dynasty with Joe Montana and Steve Young. Sean is a young brilliant football mind with an old soul.

Both teams made the conversion late in the season to running teams, each averaging over 39 carries per game. The Rams have the better defense in the Super Bowl and more players to make big plays. The offenses are similar in capability if not execution and will have every chance to be productive.

This has the making of a special Super Bowl and if New England wins, few will be surprised. But I'm taking Los Angeles because they have the better overall team and have more playmakers on both sides of the ball.

In this game, while experience helps, it does not always decide games. Just think back to a team called the Rams (from St. Louis), who was poised to win a second Super Bowl in three years and they lost to upstarts named Brady and Belichick. Will the cycle of life come full circle? I say YES with the Rams winning.

Doug' s Props 

Rams - Will they Score a Rushing Touchdown?  YES

Rams - Total Sacks by Defense O/U 1.5 - OVER

Rams - Total Points O/U 27.5 - OVER

How many times will the broadcast mention Sean McVay's Age O/U 1.5? (They have to actually he's 33.) OVER

How Many QB Hits will Aaron Donald Record? O/U 2.5 - OVER

New England vs. LA Rams: Anytime Touchdown Scorer - Rex Burkhard

Total Number of Different Patriots to have a Rushing Attempt (Conversions Do Not Count) (Kneel down is a Rush Attempt) O/U 5.5 - UNDER

Patriots - Will they Score a Rushing Touchdown - YES

Patriots - Total Sacks by Defense - OVER 1.5

Patriots - What will Happen First (Includes Safety)(Official Punt Only) - Taking Punt

Will any QB throw for 400 or more Yards in the game? - NO

Will there be an onside kick attempt in the game? - YES

New England vs LA Rams: Will there be a score in the first 4 mins 30 sec of the game? No

New England vs LA Rams: Total Rushing Yards by Todd Gurley -  Over 62.5

National Anthem O/U 107 seconds -  Over

In reviewing the figures, we find that Tom Brady has won 28 playoff games over a career that spans back to when Bon Jovi was singing "It's My Life". (Sort of fits right.) Patrick Mahomes, he's won the only postseason playoff game he's been in and that was last Saturday.

This matchup has been viewed from almost every conceivable angle at this point, so let's take it down to gut levels. After a season in which New England was roundly viewed as a sinking dynasty and everyone agreed that the talent is not the same as prior teams that played for the AFC championship. Just a few days after an extremely impressive performance over the Chargers, now there is outrage about Patriots being an underdog in Kansas City and Brady is not pleased about being disrespected. (Again, enough already Tom)

We all know about Brady's unparalleled success, with the same going for Bill Belichick and the playoff failures of Andy Reid. But if facts matter, the B&B combination was 3-5 SU and ATS this year on the road and in their last eight playoff games on the road or at neutral sites, they are 2-6 SU. Believe it or not, New England will not be the only team with a modified game plan from the previous contest, as Reid will have a few surprises also. And as bad as the Kansas City defense has looked at times this season, at Arrowhead, they have allowed 17.4 PPG, which is tied for 3rd in the NFL at this moment. Take the Chiefs who win by 7. 

No question Los Angeles and New Orleans looked like the best two squads in the NFC at that time and having reached this point they still are. Yet, each team is different from that last game and that will play directly into the outcome. 

After a late surge win and cover against Detroit, followed by losses to Chicago and Philadelphia, Sean McVay realized his defense was not good enough to be in shootouts every week and the loss of Cooper Kupp mattered to the passing. In winning and covering three straight the Rams have rushed the ball at least 40 times in each victory. New Orleans No.2 run defense will present a challenge, but if L.A. can just move the chains running, they can win this confrontation.

New Orleans was high-flying scoring machine 2 1/2 months ago, but with no real receiver threat outside of Michael Thomas and offensive line becoming battered at Thanksgiving, the Saints have averaged 19.1 PPG in their last six outings.

For the right to go the Super Bowl from this side of the bracket, let's take the Rams, who have taken a more aggressive defensive approach, still having an offense that can score and who is 13-3 SU on the road since last year. L.A. Outright! 

New England opened at -5 on the opening line against the L.A. Chargers, which is their smallest opening playoff game spread since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady started being in the postseason since 2001. But this is the 10th straight year New England has a playoff game, making them very familiar with the drill. The Patriots have also won their opening postseason contest a hard to fathom seven straight times. This Los Angeles bunch seems to relish playing on the road and they are 8-1, but two straight East Coast games will not be easy. As the point spread suggests, this is not a vintage New England bunch,  still, with the B & B combo in Foxborough, hard to go against this group. Pats by 6 or more. 

Rest assured, there will be a large contingent of handicappers and people reportedly in the know taking Dallas at +7 over the Rams. I will not unequivocally say they are wrong, nonetheless, I choose to disagree. Nobody knows the exact status of Todd Gurley, but if he's good enough to play, he will go. My guess is Sean McVay was not going to take any chances and wanted him close to 100 percent. The Dallas defense had more cracks in the latter part of the season and since holding New Orleans to only 10 points, they have permitted 24.6 PPG since, which is 20 percent more than their first dozen contests. Also, cannot overlook the Cowboys average 17.4 PPG on the road which was the worst of any playoff team, while the Rams were the top-scoring home team at 37.1 PPG. The Rams by at least 11. 

For the Chiefs Andy Reid, this is what a No.1 seed gets you, facing a team that is on a 10-1 run. Indianapolis is confident and ready to go looking to win three straight road games. As was mentioned here last week, the Colts running game is the key to their offense. The combination of Indy's offensive line and RB Marlon Mack is now 8-0 SU when they have 24 or rush attempts. On the season Kansas City was 27th in rushing defense and allowed 26.2 attempts per game. The Chiefs are on a 0-8 ATS playoff bowl flush and are facing the hottest team in the NFL with a better defense and a veteran quarterback.  The Colts move to 8-1 at K.C. with the upset win. 

Philadelphia as the Super Bowl champs will get a shot at defending their title. Nick Foles is once again working his late season magic and the Eagles have won five of six with the only loss at Dallas in OT.  The Philadelphia defense was in shambles after its secondary was wiped out. Coach Doug Pederson and his defensive coordinator decided there was only so much they could do. Philadelphia made a full commitment to stop stopping the run and on obvious passing downs did everything they could to help their depleted secondary with a pass rush and blitzing and they found ways to win.

The Bears are for real and as aggressive offensively and defensively as any team in the league thanks to coach Matt Nagy. The Chicago defense was No.1 in points allowed and No.3 in points allowed. On offense, Nagy understood the strengths and weaknesses of all his players and built an offense that was not total around QB Mitchell Trubisky, but about all the components and asked his QB to just execute.

While the Philadelphia story is compelling, this Chicago team is the best one playing this weekend and they handle they send the Eagles packing and win cover the spread.

There is something about Philip Rivers on the road as compared to at home that is different. There is a level of prickliness that stands out and he's edgier and even more combative. A rather strong case was being made that the Chargers were the best team in the AFC until they lost to Baltimore two weeks ago. Now, we get to take the Bolts away from home, where they are 7-1 SU and ATS in true road games and have quick, turnaround revenge in their favorite role. If you had told me Baltimore would have 467 yards of offense, including 296 yards rushing, with their defense against Cleveland, that sounds like a 17-point win over the Browns. Instead, the Baltimore barely hung on to win the AFC North. Twice, Baker Mayfield threw for over 300 yards on the Ravens and the L.A. Chargers coaches need to go to school on this, which is make quick reads and throws towards the near sidelines and use misdirection to connect down the middle of the field to soften up the Baltimore defense. Could not be more impressed with the job John Harbaugh did in transitioning the Ravens offense, however, Chargers familiarity will help and Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight games.

Just four weeks ago Indianapolis went into Houston and defeated them 24-21, one week after an ugly 6-0 loss at Jacksonville. The Colts arrive back in H-Town wholly confident, being just the third NFL team since the Super Bowl era to start 1-5 and make the playoffs. Andrew Luck has been the catalyst, but first-year coach Frank Reich deserves a great deal of credit along with the GM in building an offense that Luck is most comfortable in, which features tight ends a great deal.

Houston started 0-3, then on a 9-0 tear before closing 2-2 to win the AFC South. QB Deshaun Watson has been less dynamic than he was in his rookie season, coming back from knee surgery. The Texans offense had a tendency to run hot and cold and that cannot happen against Indy or Houston is done. On defense, the Texans were 5th in fewest points but were 29th in red zone defense.

With all the bad luck the Texans have endured with injury's over at least six years, it would a nice story to finally see them win. But the Colts are riding a 9-1 streak, have the better quarterback and at this moment are the better team. The call here is with the Colts. 

The Cleveland and Baltimore game is more interesting than most realize. Yes, the Ravens just need a victory to win the AFC North and they are on a real roll at 5-1 SU and are at home. But just the opening spread of the Browns at +5 at Baltimore tells us Cleveland is here to play. The outcome of this matchup will really come down to the Cleveland defense and winning on third down. If they can force Lamar Jackson into third and longs more than half the time, they will have chances. Unfortunately, Baltimore believes in themselves and are confident, especially on defense. They will cause Mayfield in a couple bad decisions and take care of the rest. The Ravens by 10.

By all accounts, Detroit has given up and scored 15 PPG in their last nine starts. With the Lions 2-10 ATS versus teams averaging 5.65 or more yards a play in the second half of the season since 2016, it's Green Bay by double digits.

Houston has let the No.2 seed in the AFC slide away twice. A loss against lowly Jacksonville will be would cost them the division and a home game next week. The Texans finally step up against a Jaguars team that is 4-18 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. Houston by 10.

After scoring only 50 points on their three-game road trip, there is general media consensus that New Orleans will return home and just keep scoring 38 PPG like they did before they left the Big Easy. While the Saints might not score 16 PPG, Dallas provided the blueprint to limiting Drew Brees and the Saints by doubling Michael Thomas, stop the run on early downs and read the keys to understand when screen plays are coming. 

Pittsburgh had a gut check victory over nemeses New England last week but to keep a hold of first place in the AFC North, they could use another upset. The Steelers run defense has been improved in last three contests,  but their pass defense against teams that have what would be deemed as a professional NFL quarterback remains an issue. Pitt has to pressure Brees up the gut.  On offense, Pittsburgh does not have to run for 5 YPC, just stay on schedule at 3 to 4 to keep the chains moving and let Ben Roethlisberger do the rest.

It's hard to ignore just how good the Saints have been and they are 10-2 ATS at home off two road wins, but something is a little off and Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS this season after surrendering 99 or fewer rushing yards.

Minnesota's impressive win over Miami keeps them in the playoff hunt. Last week the Vikings ran the ball and mixed in the pass. Detroit has gotten better and against the run, but as long as Minnesota just gets three to four yards running, their passing offense can generate big plays. Detroit is averaging 15.6 PPG of late, with Matthew Stafford not playing well and not getting much help. Motivated Vikings move to 17-5 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record and win by 9.

Green Bay's season ends next week but it turns out they have motivation. The last Packers team to go winless on the road was in 1958 and that is all Aaron Rodgers and other players have been talking about, not wanting to be the first 0-8 Green Bay team away from home. It won't be easy, but it's the Pack by 7. 

Jacksonville is a complete disaster and I don't see how or why they play well at Miami. The Dolphins are not good, but they are 6-1 SU and ATS at home. The Jags have covered one game since October and it will not be two as they lost by 7 to 10 points. 

One cannot help but begin to wonder if the Los Angeles Chargers are a team of destiny, at least on the AFC side. Kansas City's defense makes them seem beatable and New England, Houston and Pittsburgh all have flaws. In terms of completeness, the Chargers have a better team than any of these clubs and as we have seen against the Steelers and against the Chiefs last week, a Philip Rivers team is NEVER out of a game. Baltimore is resembling college team with how they are running the ball. The Ravens are averaging 230.8 YPG rushing in winning four of their last five since Lamar Jackson has taken over at quarterback. And it's not just the yards but the commitment to running, with an unheard of 46+ rushing attempts to per game over this stretch. Coach John Harbaugh appears to be borrowing from former Ravens coach Brian Billick, who went to Trent Dilfer at QB in 2000 and relied on his defense and running game to win a Super Bowl. I think the Chargers win, but impossible to ignore Baltimore is 18-7-4 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning home record and the visitor is 4-1 ATS in recent meetings.

As the season has played out for the Dolphins, they are more lucky than good. When reviewing point differentials, here is what we mean. Here are the point differentials of the AFC's 7-6 teams.

Baltimore +80 - Indianapolis +49 - Miami -55

The Dolphins very negative number is closest to Atlanta and Tampa Bay at -51, who are 4-9 and 5-8 respectively. The Fins wins have been by an average of +5.4 PPG and their losses by -15.5 PPG.

Minnesota is far from perfect, yet, we find the Vikings are 14-5 ATS after a road loss and 14-5 ATS vs. the AFC. Miami, they are 0-7 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in four consecutive games. Let's grab the Vikes who win by 10 or more. 

With Green Bay averaging barely over 20 PPG on the road and Chicago permitting only 19 PPG anywhere they play, the total in this NFC Norris Division rivalry (Chris Berman reference) has fallen like the temps in the Windy City from 46.5 to 44.5. Over the weekend the total went back up to 46 I'm not seeing Green Bay with its O-Line problems or Chicago generating enough offense and will take the UNDER. This season when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and a team like the Packers have lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, the UNDER is a solid 16-8.  

Houston has two ways they can go after first loss in 10 games, be angry about it or be meek. I'm thinking the former and their defense has the ability to overwhelm the Jets O-Line. The biggest weakness of the Texans of late is pass defense, but Gang Green is 30th throwing the ball. Despite the Jets winning last week, they were still out-gained by 120 yards. For whatever reason, the Flyboys are 1-10 ATS vs. defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards a game after 8+ contests. Plus, road favorites with a completion percentage of 60% or better, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games, are 45-18 ATS, winning by 9.9 PPG. Houston by 12.

Detroit is 1-5 SU and ATS in their most recent games, but they have been elevated from -1.5 to -3 point favorites at Arizona. The Cardinals are off hard to imagine upset of Green Bay but are still the lowest scoring team in the league at 14.6 PPG. However, ask yourself, does backing a team like the Lions sound good knowing they are 11-27 ATS as road faves since 1992? Did I mention the Cardinals are 8-0 SU and ATS at home vs. Detroit since 1999? Now I did, the Redbirds outright!

Denver after three wins and on a 6-1 ATS run has their game plan. The Broncos are looking to run, averaging 140.8 yards rushing in their last half dozen starts. This allows them to use play-action passes to keep the chains moving. We all realize this is not the same Denver defense that won the Super Bowl, but in their last three contests they have a +8 turnover margin and what do you know, San Francisco is -8 in turnovers in those same games. With the spread coming down, the 49ers fading and having a 4-13 ATS record off two road losses and even worse 0-7 ATS mark in home games after allowing six or more YPP in their previous game, ride the Broncos who win by 7 or more.  

Somehow the Buffalo lost last week to Miami despite outgaining them 425 to 175. That has to cause the Bills a great deal of frustration. On offense, Buffalo needs to be smart and have QB Josh Allen keep using his legs and arm to keep the Jets off balance or if New York tries to shadow Allen, get the ball to Shady McCoy in various ways. Defensively, Buffalo has only permitted 17.3 PPG in their last three outings and they are more than capable of stuffing a Gang Green offense averaging 15 PPG in their past trio of games. With the Jets 3-14 ATS off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, it's the Bills by 7. 

Not one bit surprised to see this total chopped from 53.5 to 51. Not sure if it will be Lamar Jackson or Joe Flacco under center, but with how Baltimore has been running the ball at 238 YPG in last three outings and Kansas City 22nd in run defense and 31st in yards per carry allowed, this could speed up the game. The other factor is the Ravens No.1 overall defense. Baltimore is 9-2 UNDER off a road game and the Chiefs are 6-0 UNDER at home after scoring 25 points or more in three straight times.

I'm of the opinion the balloon popped on Indianapolis last week. After watching Jacksonville on Thursday, it seemed the Colts more beat themselves than really losing to the Jaguars. I see plenty of so-called experts continuing to have doubts about Houston but here is the deal. The Texans are 4th in points allowed, they are averaging nearly 30 PPG in their last five contests and they are now playing with the swagger of a team that has won nine in a row. Indy is 5-17 ATS in road games versus teams averaging 130 or more rushing YPG in the second half of the season and Houston is 8-0 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. The Texans by 8 or more. 

New England is down to -7 with the Pats 2-6 SU in Dec./Jan. in Miami in last eight outings. Read reports where Patriots players are sick of coming back home and having to deal with why they cannot win in South Florida. The Dolphins won last week despite being out-gained by 250 yards, thus, that would seem to have used up quite a bit of luck. The Brady Bunch is 16-6 ATS on the road and 7-0 ATS off three or more consecutive Under's, winning by 15.3 PPG. That sound about right!

When the NFL odds were released on this AFC contest, it was not shock and awe, rather, eyebrows raised, followed by an audible "hmmm". The opening line at most sportsbooks was Houston at -7 and even after their beat down of Tennessee, by late Tuesday morning the Texans were down to -6 and the latest was -5.5. That's right, a team riding an eight-game winning streak, that gets three points for being at home is thought to be less than a field goal better than the Browns. "hmmm". In looking at my various power ratings, they have Houston winning from 6.5 to 11 points. With this, the Texans get the call and the Brownies fall to 3-14 ATS versus teams with a completion percentage of 64% or higher.

Miami has more bad trends at home than Apple's stock at the moment and the Dolphins have dipped from -6 to -3.5 against rival Buffalo. Among the many unsavory angles for the Fins is a 16-36 ATS record after a two-game road trip and 3-13 ATS mark at home versus offensive teams averaging 4.75 or fewer yards a play. This contest could be at 3 by game time which is why to grab the Bills now.

Last week I said getting out in front and trying to slow down New Orleans was a suicide mission. This week I'm bringing that back and just saying you might get hurt, but it's worth looking into. The Saints have not lost since their first game and have covered the spread nine straight times. Since suffering a very ugly loss against Tennessee, Dallas has rattled off a trio of wins and covers and jumped into a first-place tie with Washington in the NFC East. The Cowboys running game has found its footing and has averaged nearly 150 YPG (149.6) in this stretch, which has also helped Dak Prescott be a more effective thrower at quarterback. For Dallas to have a shot at beating the number, they will have to run effectively against New Orleans No.1 run defense to take advantage of their No.30 pass defense. The Cowboys defense realizes they will give up some yardage, but they will have to stand up in the red zone and force field goals attempts. Since last season, Dallas is 6-0 ATS versus defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards a game which should give them a shot.

For the Panthers, where did the offense go? Carolina totaled 40 points in the pair of defeats, with various combinations of the run game not working along with the pass offense. The Steelers and Lions both focused on stopping the run to force Cam Newton to have to throw on third and long and brought the pressure in that situation to force quick throws. The NFL odds have Carolina at -3. Back home the 'Cats average 31.6 PPG, which makes it seem that Newton and the offense will get back on track. With this, we also discovered the Panthers are 17-5 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite. Carolina by 7. 

This was going to be a higher-rated play but going over 10 has me down-grading this. I still think New England will be angry about last game and they have something to prove to themselves with 2-3 SU and ATS road record. Having a 10-1 ATS record as a favorite of 10 or more points the last three seasons is helpful.

Dallas is off two impressive road wins as an underdog. Washington is using a backup QB, a group of backup offensive linemen and has a few playmakers going up against the No.3 scoring defense in the NFL. The Redskins defense was doing an excellent job against the run but not anymore, allowing 132 YPG in the last three outings after being under 90 previously. I 100 percent realize the Dallas is a lousy home favorite, but they are also 10-2 ATS off two consecutive road wins and win by double digits. 

I liked the Lions anyways before the news of M. Tribusky. I considered this like an NBA, NHL or the NFL game, the quick turnaround fresh in your mind off a loss. Detroit played like garbage for a half at Chicago and that was just 11 days ago. In the NFL, that's as fresh as it gets. Look for the Lions to be hunting for bear (pun clearly intended), and bring the energy against a Bears team off a big win and on a short week on the road and win outright. 

Make no mistake, the Bears are a good football team, but they have only faced two teams currently over .500. Minnesota will play it smart and won't expose quarterback Kirk Cousins and the offensive line to too much pressure from Khalil Mack and Chicago's pass rushers. The Vikings will look to use Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray on quick hitters to run the ball. Cousins will use the short passing game to slow the pass rush and receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are potent running after the catch. Mitchell Trubisky is due for a multiple turnover game and the Vikings defense is capable of producing it. This will be a grinder, but the Vikings win by three or less. 

There is a lot talk about Denver off a bye and they will be ready for the Chargers on the road. But I find the Broncos are 7-16 ATS the last two years and if they have given up 99 or fewer rushing yards in back to back games, they are 1-9 ATS. The Chargers might be the most complete team in the AFC right now and the defense has allowed 13.2 PPG in their previous five games. I'm not having it, the Bolts by a dozen.

Detroit cannot stop the run, the Panthers are 3rd in running the ball. The Lions are struggling with pass protection and Carolina has a front four that is disruptive. This might have been a game Carolina might have taken lightly, but after losing by 31 to Pittsburgh close down that idea. Carolina is a solid  26-13 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games, while Detroit is 2-15 ATS against teams who commit one or less turnovers a game in the second half of the season. Cats by 8.

Houston has won six in a row in this battle of first place teams. After years of horrible health luck, the Texans are holding up and added Demaryius Thomas to take the place of Will Fuller to help Deshaun Watson. That is something the entire team notices about a commitment to winning. Washington has taken Houston place for injuries and they have them everywhere. That is why Houston has a decisive edge against the battered Redskins O-Line. Consider Washington could only score 30 points against crummy defenses like Atlanta and Tampa Bay. The Texans hit a few big plays, limit what Alex Smith can do and Houston improves to 18-6 ATS vs. defenses allowing a completion percentage of 64% or higher. Texans by 7.

Andrew Luck has been amazing, the Colts offensive line and tight ends have been sensational and the defense has held up. We have all heard Luck has never lost at home to Tennessee, until Sunday. Marcus Mariota is healthy and confident. Both the offensive and defensive line are capable of dominating and this is a very physical football team that is all too aware of past failures in Indy. All three of my power ratings have the Titans winning, I concur.

Let's begin with the obvious, Philadelphia is home off a bye week and Dallas is on the road having played on Monday. In breaking the game down further, Dallas remains limited offensively for a variety of reasons. It starts with the offensive line. For a period of about five years, the Cowboys had the premier offensive line in the NFL. They might not have been No.1 in various graders eyes each and every year, but they were in the Top 3 the entire time. Age and injuries have lowered the Dallas O-Line to where it is now considered just above average. Even with Amari Cooper, Cowboys lack in consistent playmakers and with Dak Prescott more under pressure with a lesser running game and receivers who cannot create separation, that limits Dallas. Philadelphia has felt the effects of being a Super Bowl champion. But the bye week has to be a large help and allow the coaches to find ways to improve the offense. The Eagles are not going to repeat as champions but they are nicely positioned to repeat as NFC East champions. Look for them to beat Dallas by 10 or more.

Matt Ryan is hot and has the weapons to put up points on a banged up Cleveland defense that surrendered 33.8 PPG in their previous four outings. Along that same line, Cleveland is 1-8 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in three straight games 3-13 ATS in home games after two straight losses by 14 or more points. Atlanta by 13. 

Nobody would have guessed at the beginning of the season Jacksonville would be an underdog in this AFC South showdown. But the Jaguars to this point have morphed into the teams from earlier in this decade and are making a lot of mistakes. Indianapolis has some real positives and there are those who think they might even become a playoff team. For my money, the week off will help Jacksonville refocus and with L. Fournette back, the running game should pick up, which makes B. Bortles a better quarterback. In addition, the Jags defense, though underperforming, matches up well with Colts offense. In this contest, underdogs having been beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, against an opponent after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 28-7 ATS, winning by two points a game. The Jaguars outright.

When you break down the standard numbers with these teams, you have two weak offenses going up against two underrated defenses. Dallas has played well at home this season at 3-0 and 2-1 ATS but history shows them at 15-31 ATS as a home favorite. Tennessee is only 1-3 SU on the road, but 2-2 ATS and the margin of the losses had been -1.5 PPG. The Titans have lost three straight but are 13-4 ATS off one more setbacks and with Marcus Mariota having two weeks off to get healthier, I'm forecasting a three-point outcome either way. 

This nonconference clash will be one of the more enthralling contests of Week 9 because of how the teams are playing. The Chargers arrive in Coffee Town on a four-game winning streak (2-2 ATS) with a pair of blowouts and two victories by three points. Seattle dropped their first two games of the year, but made changes in their offensive style of play and have won four of five with the only setback by two points to the 8-0 L.A. Rams. For this game I am looking at a red hot Seahawks running game that is averaging 173 YPG in their past four games. Against the three-best running offense the Chargers have faced they have allowed 155.6 YPG. This allows Pete Carroll's crew to control the tempo, keep the defense fresh and Philip Rivers on the sidelines. Seattle is a tough place to win for those who seldom visit and the Seahawks are 6-point winners. 

Pittsburgh lost the first game and is revenge-mode. At this time, the Steelers have found themselves on both sides of the ball. Baltimore looked poised to be a contender, but they have turned into frauds playing against better teams. When the spread is +3 to -3 and teams like the Ravens playing a conference game have gone under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, they are 7-22 ATS, losing by 3.6 PPG. Pitt wins! 

Not exactly the perfect week to fire your coach and OC with Kansas City coming. Even if you include Baltimore somehow scoring only nine on Cleveland, in their last five games the Browns are allowing 30.1 PPG. That is not a good number going up a Chiefs offense that averages 36.2 PPG and 36.7 PPG on the road. With Cleveland 2-12 ATS vs. teams with a completion percentage of 64% or higher and K.C. 8-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards a play in their previous game, it's the Chiefs by 14.

The Lions traded G. Tate which signifies they are not serious about winning. The Detroit run defense is last in the NFL so expect a heavy dose of L. Murray. Minnesota realizes this is a big game with Chicago playing Buffalo. The Vikings are 20-8 ATS as a home favorite, 14-4 ATS  having won two out of their last three games and 14-5 ATS playing against a team with a losing record. Vikes by 9. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick had another great showing as a relief pitcher last week. But as a starter, Fitz usually shows why he's played with eight different teams. The Tampa Bay defense is 32nd in points allowed and 29th in total defense. Carolina leads the NFL in with 28 explosive rushing plays (12 or more yards) this season. If the Bucs have to worry about the run, Cam Newton can go over the top for big passing plays. When teams like the Panthers are off two consecutive games where they committed no turnovers,  against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse, they are 25-5 ATS. Carolina by 17. 

If you know anything about Aaron Rodgers, he loves being counted out. Green Bay might have as tough a slate four of a next five weeks as any team will have all season and Rodgers has made mention of the that a few times. While this seems impossible to slow down the Rams, the Packers are 11-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. It might not make sense but it's the NFL and Pack ends up losing by six or less. 

The Colts being ridden from -1.5 to -3 at Oak-Town is not so much a play on Indianapolis, but rather against the Raiders. Oakland is a mess and Jon Gruden might have a long term view, but the older players want to win today, not in three years. Coach Frank Reich of the Colts does not have a great deal of talent on his roster, but they play hard all four quarters. It is hard to overlook Oakland is 10-23 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less. Indy by 6.

Seattle turned the corner once they decided to become a running team and let the offensive line block, instead of relying on R. Wilson to do everything. This has made the Seahawks a better team and improved their defense with not as many three and outs by the offense. Detroit has gone thru a similar transformation, but there is still something still unsettling about the Lions. Detroit made a trade to beef up their weak run defense but will the impact be immediate? Plus, let's not lose sight of the fact the Lions are 16-39 ATS after having won three out of their last four games and 4-13 ATS off a double digit road win. Seahawks outright! 

Jacksonville is in disarray. The team and coaches have lost faith in B. Bortles (again) and the defense is not playing up to last year's standards. The Jaguars have been outscored 90-28 in their last three games and they come in 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Here is what you need to know about Philly; favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed one or less turnovers, against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are, 26-11 ATS winning by a whopping 11.6 PPG. Eagles by 10. 

This is pretty simple, even with this year's away setbacks, Dallas is 20-14-1 ATS as a road dog. Dress Washington up as a home favorite and in the last 26 years, they are 43-70 ATS. With Dallas having the running game churning, they are 8-1 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards. For good measure, division road underdog off a nonconference win of 10 or more points are 14-3 ATS. Dallas by 6. 

Jacksonville is in a funk. The Jaguars proved last year how to make B. Bortles a better QB, supply him with a strong running game. The Jags have gone from 1st to 18th running the ball which places Bortles in more obvious passing situations and again he his turning the ball over. Houston's offense is not perfect, but they are gathering momentum. The Texans have gone from 0-3 to 3-0 and while those victories were hardly impressive, winning builds confidence. Jacksonville is 10-23 ATS at home after gaining 75 or less rushing yards loses outright. 

Both Minnesota and the Jets are 2-0 SU and ATS in recent games. In the NFL, one thing that is very hard to do is win and cover a three-game homestand, like New York is on. Mike Zimmer will design defenses that will be hard for Sam Darnold to read and over 60 minutes he will make a couple bad reads that will cost him. Kirk Cousins remains in excellent form and he has the weapons to exploit a depleted Flyboys secondary. With the Vikes a sharp 13-4 ATS against the AFC, it's Minny by 8.

There is going to be a lot of bettors backing Chicago. It's going to be the wrong side and here's why. New England has scored 38, 38 and 43 points in their last three games, which means Tom Brady has the offense clicking. The Bears defense is not quite the same without Khalil Mack at 100% and the Patriots will look to work Chicago's linebackers in the passing game, before going deeper down the field. New England is 9-1 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games, while Da Bears are 2-10 ATS at home after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. Pats by 7. 

Denver nearly beat Kansas City but failed and the following week they were crushed by the Jets. Now they come home to face the best team in the NFL. The Rams are the full package. Defensively, they have had a few shortcomings but I don't anticipate Denver's offense to be able to expose them. The Broncos are struggling against the run and the pass and they are 0-7 ATS vs teams averaging 5.65 or more yards per play losing by 14 PPG. Rams by 14. 

In spite of Pittsburgh and Baltimore appearing to have more overall talent, it is Cincinnati who is first place in the division and whose played more consistently over 60 minute segments in building a 4-1 SU and ATS. Pittsburgh is off their most complete team performance of the season in drubbing Atlanta 41-17. The Steelers offense was more cohesive, in sync and didn't have the minor breakdowns that have plagued them all season. Let's be honest, the Pittsburgh linebackers and secondary are nothing special, but there ticket to success is pressure and when force the opposing quarterback to make quick decisions, they reduce their exposure to big  plays. Even though it is incredibly tempting to go against Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati, the Steelers are 23-5 SU and 20-7-1 ATS in the Queen City. Steelers outright.

By all appearances the Falcons are in a world of hurt at 1-4 SU. The defense is weak and injured and their season is literally on the brink. Tampa Bay is changing quarterbacks after Ryan Fitzpatrick used up his 15 minutes of fame. As bad as Atlanta has looked, do you really think that Jameis Winston is going to stroll in and lead his team to victory? I think not! Consider this, when the line is +3 to -3 and a team gives up 14 or more points in the first half per game and in their last game they scored three points or less in the first half, they are 11-33 ATS. Dirty Birds by 7.

Minnesota is off a nice victory over Philadelphia and Arizona is off their first win of the year. While the Vikings at -10 look imposing, let's not lose sight of the fact that the Cardinals were outgained by 237 yards last week. Arizona  is playing their second straight road game and with the total at 43, they are 1-9 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49. With the Vikings 13-5 ATS playing against losing teams, it's Minny by 17.

Philadelphia and New York are both under .500. The Eagles are favored in this Thursday night game on FOX but this season is 0-4 ATS in that role. The Giants record as an underdog is better than their overall record (2-3 ATS vs. 1-4 SU), but they too are a phony. New York's stated goal was to be a more physical team, running the ball with rookie Saquon Barkley. Because their offensive line is horrible, the G-Men are 31st in rush attempts and 28th in rushing and have already given up on what was going to be their identity. Both these NFC East rivals commit more than more than two turnovers a game and force just one, thus, each is more inclined to beat itself than to earn a victory. As for a choice, there is now too much value on the better team at -1 and I'll take Philly because road favorites off two losses are 32-10 ATS against losing teams.

The Cowboys won at home against Detroit, but not surprisingly failed to cover the number. Dallas is 0-2 SU and ATS on the road and has tallied just 21 points. Yet, let's look Houston's defense. In spite of being as relatively healthy as they have been in years, the Texans are permitting 27 PPG and 382 YPG against offenses averaging 325. In other words, this should create opportunities for Dallas to move the ball and score. In addition, the Cowboys running game is starting to churn and they are 8-1 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Add in Dallas is 6-0 ATS versus opponents allowing 375 or yards a game and I'll gladly take the points. 

The Ravens were one of my OVER picks for season win totals and they look the part. Joe Flacco is having one his best years and is helped with two quality tight ends and wide receivers who can get open. Flacco was also motivated by Baltimore taking Lamar Jackson in the first round. On defense, the Ravens are 2nd in total defense and tied for third in scoring defense. Look for them to create at least two Baker Mayfield turnovers and turn those into points. We know the Browns are 4-12 ATS as a home underdog,  but you might know the Ravens are 8-1 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

Carolina can keep Big Blue guessing with their use of RB Christian McCaffrey and that should be a big boost. Two games ago, he was a go-to player in the passing attack and then he turned into a major rushing threat in the next game. In three previous games against the Giants, quarterback Cam Newton has accounted for 10 touchdowns (eight passing, two rushing).On defense, the Panthers will force Eli Manning into mistakes because of having no offensive line. The Panthers should see an opportunity to overpower the Giants along the line of scrimmage. Carolina comes in a sharp 10-2 ATS at home after allowing 6.5 or more yards a play in their previous game. The Cats by 13. 

My first impulse was to consider Indianapolis with the points. Underdogs of seven or more are a respectable 6-6 ATS this season. But when breaking down the matchup, that is where Indianapolis becomes less attractive. In both New England losses, which were on the road, the one element that was in play is teams ran at the Patriots with a great deal of success. Miami tried that but New England made adjustments in gap control and because they built an early lead, they were able to dictate the tempo. The Colts are 29th in rushing and to think they will take advantage of the Pats seems foolish. New England's perimeter players are not near what they were even last year. Granted, they have more big-play potential, but they often do not create much separation on regular passing plays. That was partly why they emphasized the ground game more last Sunday and look for them to do the same this week. It will be New England by 17.

Pittsburgh got into the win column on Monday night largely due to three interceptions. Once again the pass defense was ineffective in allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw for 411 yards. The Steelers rank 28th in pass defense and the issue is multifaceted. They are having problems staying with speedier wide receivers. Opponents are exposing them with underneath routes because their linebackers struggle to play in space, which leaves room for tight ends and backs to work in the 5 to 10-yard range. On offense, Pittsburgh was sharp at Tampa Bay and timing of the offense was more normal. Save a flat first half against Cincinnati, the Baltimore offense is much improved on the passing end. Joe Flacco is playing faster and making quicker decisions and he has better pass-catchers. The offensive line and run game are not synced up yet, but teams are trying to the Ravens to throw. When the point spread in this series is three or less like this game is, the underdog is solid 9-5-3 ATS and I'll back the Birds. 

It looked peculiar to see this game open as a Pick. Sure, Oakland is 0-3 and has been outscored 64-17 in the second half in the new Gruden era. But come on, Cleveland is 2-32-1 SU the last two-plus seasons and has not won back to back games since the middle of the 2014 season. For whatever reason, everybody's all excited about the Browns, yet the fact remains road underdogs like Cleveland, after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 7-27 ATS. Raiders by 7.

The Dolphins will attempt to keep their perfect record intact when they head on the road to take on the Patriots in this AFC affair. Everyone wants to know what's wrong with New England. It starts with the personnel department and success. All those years of drafting late and not having as many players work out like in the past is catching up to them. This is particularly true on defense, where the talent level and effort is the lowest in years. Yes, Miami is 3-0 & ATS, but there is some smoke and mirrors. The Dolphins are being outgained by 53 yards a game which fits the profile of a losing team, not an unbeaten one. While I'm the first to admit New England at this many points looks challenging, betting against Tom Brady at home seldom works (64-9 SU regular season since 2009) and the Pats are 8-0 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. New England by 16)

The student against the teacher on Sunday Night football. Bill Belichick goes against already beleaguered Matt Patricia. One week after it looked like New England defense was better than last year, Jacksonville carved them up like a turkey for 377 yards passing and it was the Super Bowl all over again for the Patriots. It is starting to appear the Patriots are still a very good football team, but the best team in the AFC, that is no longer guaranteed. Patricia cannot be blamed for wanting perfection after his time in New England and if Detroit is that soft mentally and physically, they need new players. However, Patricia is supposed to be a defensive genius and his run defense is permitting 5.6 yards a carry and 179 yards a game. Allow the Pats and Tom Brady to run the ball and they will pick any team apart. With Lions still having no running game and Matthew Stafford not as accurate thus far as the past few years, it's New England by 10.

Let's be honest, nothing much to fear about Seattle. But the same goes for Dallas also and the Seahawks are back home where they always play better. When the Cowboys do not score, they are not very good and they are 12-28 ATS in road games off two or more Under's. Seattle, on the other hand, is 10-2 ATS after two or more losses and is 11-2 ATS in September home games. The Hawks by 6. 

The LA Rams are like Hollywood movie premiere, there is talent everywhere. On offense, there is Jared Goff and Todd Gurley and revamped offensive line that even stronger. The receivers complement each other and all have a place in the Rams passing tree. On the defense, the line can dominate like no other in the NFL and the secondary is superb, But Los Angeles will support a winner and the Chargers can achieve more notoriety with the upset. Philip Rivers is a proven commodity and RB Melvin Gordon is turning into a Top 5 running back if he's not already there in NFL scouts eyes. Rivers over the years has never been shy about passing the pigskin to a variety of receivers and already after just two games, six different pass-catchers have chunk plays of 20+ yards. And Rivers is 11-3 ATS when catching  7 or more points, including playoff games. With the Rams 3-12 ATS after allowing less than 200 yards on offense, thy win, by just 3. 

What Baltimore team shows up? The one against Buffalo or the non-caring one against Cincinnati. Let's go the presumption it's the Game 1 crew and they will find 2-0 fraud in the Broncos. Denver moves the ball and is 4th in total offense, but is 24th in yards per point which is points scored per 100 yards gained. This has been achieved at a Mile High, not where they sell crab cakes. The Broncos are also 1-9 SU and ATS on the road of late and Vance Joseph is not among the best coaches in the NFL and he's 4-12-2 ATS. With Baltimore a solid 13-5 ATS in September home games, give the -5 because they are winning by double digits. 

This is how it works, you struggle, you struggle some more and when it seems impossible, you break through and everything opens up. That's where Cleveland is. After two games the Browns have a +6 turnover margin, which for any other normal team would mean a 2-0 record at this point. But these are Hue Jackson's Browns we are talking about and if there is a way to not win a game, undoubtedly, they will find it. Look for the kicking game to improve against the Jets this week, because, well, like Cleveland, it cannot get any worse. The New York Jets came crashing back to earth in a home loss to Miami and that fitting for Sam Darnold's Hall of Fame jacket will be put on hold for the time being. Cleveland is a favorite for the first time in exactly one year (-1 at Indianapolis, lost 31-28). Look for the Browns defense to harass Darnold just like they have Pittsburgh and New Orleans and QB Tyrod Taylor to make plays and Cleveland wins comfortably by 13 points, ending their 19-game winless streak.

For the New York Giants and Dallas, it is already about urgency. The loser will be 0-2 to start the season and they will have to climb out of a hole. Each team struggled in the trenches on both sides of the ball, unable to run with any consistency and largely pushed around on the defensive end. So who do you take in this confrontation of true adversaries? The G-Men and here is why. The Dallas offensive line is no longer a strength, stripping them of their identity. No defense this season has to go out of their way to game plan for the Cowboys' receivers. Saquon Barkley is a star waiting to happen, though Ezekiel Elliott is his equal for now. But what about Odell Beckham Jr. under the Sunday night lights? Who stops him for the Cowboys? This will be about making big plays and Blue Blue makes more, going up against a Dallas crew that is 1-9 ATS in home games after scoring 14 points or less in last game. 

It's interesting to see the oddsmakers are not "shadowing" the Patriots thus far and putting up what are realistic numbers. Not that New England has not been good enough to take on what comes there way, because they are 29-10 ATS record the last three seasons. Here is what I cannot get past - Tom Brady vs. Blake Bortles with a spread like this. By no means am I saying this is the same Jacksonville of the past, but when I see the Pats challenged and having a 13-3 ATS road record of late, I like them in this spot by six or more. 

Oddsmakers made Miami a one-point favorite before the Jets played on Monday night. After Gang Green made Detroit look sickly, the Flyboys were flipped to field goal home favorites. That to me is too much on the Jets and if you watched Miami last week, they looked more like the playoff team from 2016 running the ball and executing the short passing offense. In addition, they can heat up the pass rush and I think they give S. Darnold some deceptive looks and a turnover or two leads to scores and Miami who wins outright! 

Ryan Fitzpatrick was sensational last week for Tampa Bay. So why is he playing for his eight different NFL team? Because if you know anything about him, he just as likely to throw three picks this week against Philadelphia who will pressure him more and has the secondary to make him miserable. Two elements to ponder, the Bucs are 3-12 ATS off a win over a division rival as an underdog of six or more and the Eagles are on a roll of s 7-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. Philly by 7 or more.

Baltimore played a near flawless game against Buffalo in blowing them out 47-3 as 7.5 point favorites. This was a continuation of what we saw in the preseason from the Ravens and Joe Flacco taking his job more seriously since Baltimore drafted Lamar Jackson in the first round. Besides the attitude adjustment by Flacco, he's become more dutiful in his footwork and is not making as many off-balance throws, they were 50-50 balls for interceptions. Cincinnati had to come from behind to oust Indianapolis but showed more courage than recent Bengals teams. Cincinnati figures to be fearless at home against Baltimore since they have a 14-8 and 13-9 ATS record at home against them. The Baltimore defense received a lot of praise for their effort last week, but the Bengals Andy Dalton on a bad team is better than what Buffalo has a quarterback right now. These Thursdays tilts are always challenging, but I'll back the Birds since they are 10-1 ATS after scoring 40 or more points. 

Philip Rivers will attack a Chiefs secondary that is banged up and ranked 29th against the pass and 25th against the run a year ago.  Rivers has to be salivating since he's lost eight straight to K.C. (2-6 ATS). Look for Rivers to attack that pass defense through the air and the reason is two-fold. Not only does it allow the Chargers to play with a lead if successful, but it could put the Chiefs in a hole in which they are forced to pass. The Chargers would love to make the Chiefs one-dimensional and be forced to rely on the production of rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the face of the Chargers' pass-rush combo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. The Bolts by 6. 

Not exactly a marquee matchup, but I will side with what appears to be the better team coming into the season. Tennessee looked lost in the preseason and while that is not a great barometer, the Titans look like a team searching for answers. M. Mariota is working with another new offensive coordinator this year which is supposed to tailor the offense to his skills. We will see. R. Tannehill looks to employ the running game and converting on short passes. Tennessee upgraded it secondary, but time will tell on this. Miami's a rotten home favorite but is a very respectable 27-17 ATS as an underdog of three points or less. Fish win. 

Atlanta and Philadelphia were largely sleep-walking thru the NFL preseason. In surmising this contest, going to be a little trendy, as in looking at the trends. Since 2000, the Super Bowl champions the opening week of the season are 11-6-1 ATS (15-3 SU). This makes sense on a couple levels. It starts with the champs being at home in a celebratory situation. Their confidence is high and starting a new year, they do not want to be the team stumbles early and everyone talking about the old - hunter vs. hunted - scenario. Also, I know the preseason is not supposed to matter, but the Falcons were 0-4. This might not matter in a few weeks, but for my money, consider that conundrum and their 1-8 SU and ATS record in Philly. 

I know it is never wise to bet against Tom Brady in a big game, especially when his team is favored. However, this Philadelphia squad has the look of destiny about it. Nick Foles has become a competent quarterback and his coaches have placed in him in the best position to succeed. This is arguably the weakest New England defense by personnel they have taken into the Super Bowl. With coach Doug Pederson's aggressive nature, they will pound the ball up the middle, followed by shots down the right side outside the hash-marks. On defense, Philadelphia has what the New York Giants had in beating the Patriots in two Super Bowls, a dynamic four-man pass rush that can disrupt Brady. This will extremely close game, with Philly a 24-23 winner.

There are a vast number of people that believe New England is a lock to reach the Super Bowl with Pittsburgh out of the way. Considering the Patriots history tied to current head coach and quarterback, hard to argue with this logic. There are naysayers who look at Jacksonville's defensive potential and point to what Blake Bortles is capable of in a given game, if not week to week. However, unlike the Steelers last week, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will not be looking towards next game, they will be fully focused on this one. If any coach and his defensive staff is likely to put together game plan to get Bortles out of his comfort zone, it will be the team in the blue jersey's. We will conclude with teams that have scored more than 40 points in the postseason, they are recently 3-11 and 3-10-1 ATS in next game.

Sometimes you can catch yourself, as any sports bettor does, overreacting to something that just happened. After watching Blake Bortles play like, well, Blake Bortles, it would be easy to say - He stinks - and want to go against Jacksonville in a big way. Yet in Bortles case, we have history. Other than a few periods of time this season, the former Central Florida product was again a pedestrian signal caller. There was a strong reason why Tom Coughlin and coach Doug Marrone built this team around defense and running game. This was Bortles third straight rough outing and having to play on the road at Pittsburgh, if is very difficult to imagine Jacksonville manufacturing many points. The Steelers on the other hand have a hot Ben Roethlisberger and the running game to take on Jaguars No. 21 run defense. Pittsburgh wins and covers 24-13. 

The Titans only shot to beat the Patriots is slowing their running game, forcing Tom Brady to make quicker than preferred decisions when passing and running the football. Anything else will lead to certain defeat for Tennessee. Accomplishing all three of those elements is a HUGE task on the road for the Titans. Tennessee might be able to do a couple things on their list, which could slow down the New England offense. One can assume the Patriots probably feel confident they can contain Marcus Mariota's offense and they do not need a ton of points to quell Tennessee. That is why I expect a workman-like effort from the Brady Bunch and they win going away, 28-16, making the UNDER the correct call. 

Not that there is a good matchup for Buffalo, but Jacksonville really looks to be a poor one. The Bills even with LeSean McCoy only has scored 17.8 points per game on the road this season. Match that up against a Jaguars defense that was second in fewest yards allowed and fewest points conceded. Next, have McCoy at less than 100 percent or not playing at all, that leaves Tyrod Taylor having to survive the NFL's No.2 sack defense, who was also second in interceptions. Next up, let's look at how the Bills are going to stop the Jaguars offense. Though they faltered a bit at the end of the season, Jacksonville was still the league's top rushing offense. They will be mightily determined to play - ground and pound - against Buffalo, who finished 29th in run defense. Make it the Jags 27-10.

The Atlanta Falcons are out to defend their NFC title and how they might accomplish it will be quite different. Last season Atlanta was the top scoring team in the NFL at 33.8 PPG. This season, for a variety of reasons, much has changed and they are down to 22.1 PPG. Normally, this would keep most teams out of the playoffs, but the Falcons defensive improvement has kept them afloat, going from 25.4 to 19.7 PPG allowed. To knock off Los Angeles, the Atlanta defense has to slow the new No.1 scoring offense in the Rams and take away RB Todd Gurley. For the first time in 19 years, Atlanta was in the Top 10 in total and scoring defense and was 7-1 SU when holding opponent under 100 yards on the ground. The Dirty Birds are 5-3 SU on the road and the Rams are only 3-4 SU at home, with the score differentials -1 to +4. Add in Atlanta having kicker edge with Zuerlein out, this becomes tight contest. 

Buffalo is a long shot to make the AFC playoffs, but they still have chance with a victory. For this to happen, the Bills will need to score more than season average of 18.7 points per game. And I think they will against Miami. If you drop nine points they gave up to Denver, in the Dolphins other nine most recent games they have allowed over 30 PPG. Not every team with motivation wins, however, then the line is +3 to -3 and the home team (Miami) off one or more Under's and on the season is outscored by 5 or more points per game in the first half, in last 76 contests, they have lost by 5.9 PPG. Buffalo by 7.

There is a lot on the line for Carolina and Atlanta conflict. The Falcons are back in the postseason with a victory and very likely out if they falter. The Panthers will at least be a wild card team and with a triumph and good fortune, they might even have a home playoff game next weekend. This leads me to believe defense and careful football will rule the day. Atlanta's offense has not been the same as last year and they are 11-2 UNDER after two or more losses against the spread and 8-0 UNDER off four or more consecutive Under's. With the total at 45, I found the Panthers average score is 42 total points in away games and just below 40 points in NFC South confrontations. No problem backing the UNDER.

Kansas City has righted the ship and wraps up another AFC West title with a victory over Miami. What we are seeing from the Chiefs is not new when it comes to complete turnarounds. This year's 5-0 start, followed by 1-6 downturn, leading to winning their last two games has more or less been done before by K.C. In 2015, Kansas City won opener and proceeded to drop five in a row. Next, like magic, the Chiefs for some reason got blazing hot and reeled off 10 consecutive wins, including one in the playoffs. Though 10 points might sound like a lot for Kansas City to give to Miami, the Chiefs defense can rattle Jay Cutler in miscues. Additionally, the offense is back to scoring almost 30 PPG in past three outings. The Chiefs continue winning ways with 31-14 victory.

It has been a long year for Denver, but a third consecutive victory would remove some the sting of a tough season. In the Broncos past two wins, we see what they do best. Denver is a run-first offense, which sets up play-action passing and the defense can stifle opposing teams if not placed in terrible field position series after series. Washington hopes - win one, lose two - trend does not continue after beating Arizona. The Redskins were fortunate to come away with the 'W', but as we as NFL bettors understand, any win is a good one. If Washington cannot do better 50 yards rushing, like they have averaged in last three outings, the Skins assuredly will fall to defeat against Denver. Broncos outright!

The Los Angeles Chargers after three strong defensive showing were torched for 30 points against Kansas City and basically lost their chance to win the AFC West. It did not help the Chargers that the offense committed four turnovers, placing them frequently in terrible field position. The Bolts defense should return to normal against a feeble Jets offense that is not the same without Josh McCown. Carson's finest have enjoyed a few shining moments on offense this season, however, 22.2 PPG in hardly dynamic. I'll back the lower score with the Chargers 8-2 UNDER versus AFC competition. 

Baltimore had to be immensely disappointed they failed to knock off Pittsburgh when they had the chance Sunday night. Nonetheless, there were several positives. Joe Flacco and the passing offense showed a pulse and the offensive line whipped Pittsburgh in running the ball for 152 yards. The Browns have in recent games done a great deal right, but crucial mistakes are destroying them. With a 3-10 ATS record this season and 2-9 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or less hard to see Cleveland changing much again versus Ravens defense.

After being run over by the Rams the previous week, Arizona could have lost to first place Tennessee and hardly anyone would have noticed. But the Cardinals showed moxie and determination and "kicked" the Titans 12-7, thanks to four field goals. Arizona can continue drive to finish with a winning record in Washington, but it should be noted they are 1-5 ATS on the road this season. That might not be a problem if the Redskins put up a third stinky performance. Washington has numerous injuries and has played like a team mailing it in the past two weeks, which reflects poorly on coach Jay Gruden. Let's remember, home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Redskins, allowing 24 or more points a game, after a loss by 10 or more points, are 11-33 ATS since 2008.

Even in the loss to the New York Jets, you could see Kansas City was going to find a victory soon and they did at home against Oakland with ease. The L.A. Chargers will not be as soft as a comforter, like the Raiders for the Chiefs. Philip Rivers is back to his salty self and with receivers having returned, the Bolts offense (and defense) has gone into another gear during this four-game winning streak in averaging 32.7 PPG and their talented defensive front seven has shut off opposing running games like a faucet the past three contests. I am well aware the Chargers have dropped seven in a row to K.C., nevertheless, they look like the better club and take control of the AFC West with a win and cover.

I like where Baltimore is going but Pittsburgh has endured a rough week. With reports Ryan Shazier might be done playing football, the Steelers rally around their fallen teammate and beat Ravens by 13. 

Lose one game in one of the most difficult places to play in the NFL and suddenly you are a bum. OK, maybe I'm taking this a little too far, but how else do you explain that Philadelphia was considered the best team in the NFL last Sunday afternoon and now they are a rising road underdog to the L.A. Rams. Of course I realize the Rams are a very good team, but I did not get the notice they suddenly have a home field advantage unless those that came dressed as empty seats the past two years have been closet fans. Plus, do not overlook the Eagles performance last week. Yes, they lost turnover battle 2-0, yet they hardly played poorly in outgaining the Seahawks by 115 total yards. Philly is 9-3 ATS this season and 13-3 ATS vs. teams scoring 29 or more points a game in the second half of the season.

We all understand the G-Men stink and are a rotten team, yet when you factor in coaching change, Manning unquestionably will be laser-focused and it is home game against Dallas, anything less than New York's best effort would be a stunner. G-Men cover, maybe win outright.

With Houston 1-5 SU in past six games, it might have been a bit disconcerting to see them climb from -1 to -3 (now -2.5) even against San Francisco. Sure the 49ers lost their initial first eight contests, but they have won two of three and are making strides. Besides, if you saw the highlights of Houston's game, they had players dropping left and right to injury. But here is a question for you as a football bettor, do you really believe the Niners can win two straight road games after surprising Chicago? I certainly do not and San Fran is  0-7 ATS vs. teams scoring 24 or more points a game.

One of the best home teams in football has blown up as a home underdog. That is correct, Seattle has been sent from +3.5 to +6 (now +5.5) versus the best team in the NFL, Philadelphia. The last time the Seahawks were a home underdog was 2012, 47 games ago (includes playoffs). A lot of pride in that Seattle uniform, making this a field goal or less outcome.

I went against Carolina and lost last week. Lessoned learned. As I mentioned here last week, Carolina was my favorite win totals pick for the season and now I just need one more victory in five games to secure a winner. That could very well happen this Sunday. The Panthers were tested by the Jets in was a flat game for them and they still prevailed. While revenge is hardly a sole reason to back any team, I think it matters this week since Carolina was smacked 34-13 at home by New Orleans. This Carolina club more closely resembles the one that went to the Super Bowl almost two years ago, with a defense that can take away offensive layers and offense that is continuing to evolve. While I really am impressed with the Saints have accomplished, with the chance of having three defensive starters out or at least a couple not close to 100 percent, the Panthers at +5.5 is too good to pass up.