This we get, Alabama will score on Clemson. They are too talented offensively not to with this may be the best Crimson Tide offensive team ever and certainly the finest during the Nick Saban era. However, the Crimson Tide will not go up and down the field all night on the Tigers, who will generate a lot of pressure and stall Bama drives more than they are accustomed too.

Clemson will ring up points as both teams have talented quarterbacks who deliver the ball on time and hit receivers accurately where they can catch the pigskin and run. The Tigers are capable of being just as explosive and there are a few holes Clemson can exploit in the Tide's secondary. This is what makes the total of OVER 58 attractive for college football picks.

Concerning the side going with Clemson at +6, because of the depth of their defensive line to create havoc and their ability to make big plays on offense. Clemson 33-31.

We all know about Urban Meyer leaving and supposedly the players want to win the Rose Bowl for the coach. However, Washington will have a say in how this plays out. With Ohio State's offense back at full throttle, the Huskies will not be able to match points. Buckeyes win 35-24.

N.C. State has the No.6 passing game in the country, yet struggles to run, making them one dimensional. Texas A&M has a better-balanced offense, plays better defense and faced a tougher schedule, making them the play.

All indicators are Northwestern is not as good as their 8-5 record. Nonetheless, the Wildcats hang around and are 6-0 ATS after being outgained by 125 or more total yards in their last game.

Michigan State has the better defense but also has an unproductive offense. Oregon can score and move the chains but are they tough enough to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball? We will say no and Sparty wins the game.

Simple deduction, this comes down to Alabama making three more stops, turnovers or making special teams plays. The Crimson Tide do this and that is a difference of 13 to 17 points against an overmatched Oklahoma defense. All Alabama has to do from there is hold a slight edge. The Tide rolls 52-31.

As good as the Clemson defense is, the secondary is vulnerable if the opposing team has time to pass and the quarterback is on target. Ian Book is an accurate thrower and Notre Dame has the receivers to make plays and often big ones. Defensively, the Fighting Irish can rush the passer and if they can make QB Lawrence jittery in the pocket, that can affect his accuracy. Look for Notre Dame to stay in the game, put pressure on the Tigers, who end up escaping by 7 or less.

Iowa State is not going to be intimidated by Washington State passing offense playing in the Big 12. The Cougars might not be sharp from the outset looking to overcome the disappointment of not playing for the Rose Bowl. With Mike Leach 3-8 ATS as bowl favorite, take the Cyclones and consider the UNDER with two good defensive clubs.

A bit late to the party for value, but still like this game. West Virginia failed to win the Big 12 and now will be without starting QB Will Grier who is moving on to the NFL. This is Syracuse's first bowl game in five years and could win 10 games for the first time since 2001. Add in Dana Holgorsen is 0-5 ATS as a bowler and the Orange sold all their tickets for this Orlando bowl and it's the 'Cuse who cover.

Minnesota played better defensively in their last three games, but Purdue, Northwestern and Wisconsin do not come anywhere close to matching the kind of speed Georgia Tech has on offense. Add in it how difficult it is to simulate the option offense the Yellow Jackets use and you can see Georgia Tech just wearing the Golden Gophers down. From what I understand the Jackets players like their coach Paul Johnson and they will look to send him into retirement a winner. With Georgia Tech 7-0 ATS against teams allowing 5.9 or more yards a play, make it the Rambling Wreck by 10. 

Hawai'i can score and but they are not very good on defense. Louisiana Tech is solid defensively but has issues on offense. To date in the bowls, the majority of teams with better offenses have won the bowls before Christmas and look for that to continue. I'm well aware of Skip Holtz's record as an underdog, but I don't see the Bulldogs matching points. Hawai'i by 5.

Army's formula is simple, get to the edges to create big plays against Houston defense that tackles poorly and is undisciplined. Once the Black Knights establish the outside run, they can use misdirection and run the ball in the A-gaps for big plays also. The Cougars gave up 401 rushing yards to Memphis to close out the regular season and allowed well over 900 yards over the last three games. The Cougars have speed but Army has discipline which is why they have only given up 18 PPG. Houston has lacked mental toughness all year and loses by 13.

Marshall's run game is ordinary, but the USF defensive front has been lit up way too often over the second half of the season, giving up 220 yards or more six times in the last seven games and getting destroyed for way over 300 in three of those. The Bulls are allowing over five yards per carry. USF lost their starting quarterback and Marshall defense is like attack dogs, with three or more sacks seven times this year, and oh by the way, the Bulls O-Line has permitted 34 sacks. Marshall is 11-2 ATS as a bowler and coach Holliday 5-0 SU and ATS. The Thundering Herd by at least a touchdown. 

Ohio U. opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but as game time neared, they were down to -3 or -2.5, depending on the sportsbooks. There is a belief that San Diego State's No.4 run defense will really slow Ohio's No.9 running game. With the Aztecs having allowed 214 yards to the Air Force and 199 yards to UNLV on the ground, I'm less convinced and I'll give points, especially at -3 or less. 

Let's start by saying Appalachian State is the better team, having more speed on defense and being physically stronger on both lines. If former coach Scott Satterfield was going on the sidelines, we would probably have taken App. State. But he took the Louisville job and like the coach at Utah State, they had less than two weeks to sort everything out for preparation. Let's make New Orleans the destination and the Mountaineers could be easily unfocused. Middle Tennessee faced three SEC teams this season and is not going to be intimidated by App. State. Coach Rick Stockstill's son is playing final game at QB, so you know he will be ready. The Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or less and 11-3 ATS after one or more straight up setbacks. Snap up the points.

Utah State had a fantastic 10-2 season and only a loss at Boise State in their final game prevented them from playing for the MWC title against Fresno State. Take that disappoint and add coach Matt Wells leaving for Texas Tech and having the Aggies as this large a favorite adds consternation. Though North Texas had all the right peripheral numbers like a 9-3 record, all the defeats were in conference play and they never sniffed returning to C-USA title tilt. Though Utah State averaged better than 47 points a game, they were at only 34.8 PPG away from home and the Mean Green only allowed 21.8 PPG. Let's snag North Texas with the points who were the only team in the country to outgain every foe. 

Talk about knowing one another! This will be the fourth time these two Mountain West rivals will do battle in less than 53 weeks. The home team has won each time, covering twice. What has caught our attention is the oddsmakers line. In the game back in early November, Boise State, who normally gives four points for playing on the blue turf, was a two-point home underdog to Fresno State and won 17-14. Four weeks later the Broncos are -2.5, which is rather a large line movement, yet, still below what Boise State regularly is at home. With Fresno State 19-6 ATS the last two years and 6-0 ATS as an underdog, the Bulldogs will be your Mountain West champs as the winner!

The last five games between these bitter rivals have been determined by seven or fewer points. Texas won the first game which is why many football bettors will be backing Oklahoma thinking about revenge.  But as good as the Sooners high-scoring offense is, the defense has conceded 47.2 PPG in their last four tries and are 0-3-1 ATS in the process. And let's not forget about Texas coach Tom Herman who is 13-1 ATS as an underdog, which includes 10 outright upsets. Oklahoma might well win the Big 12 title, but it will be by the skin of their teeth yet again.

Aside from one game when they lost their starting quarterback, the Mountaineers have been pounded opposing teams or played very well in putting together a 9-2 season. App. State has the No.5 scoring defense in the country and has +21.9 PPG scoring differential. One game in which they did not go all out was against Louisiana, winning just 27-17 as 26-point home favorites. While some people do not like head to head comparisons, it's hard to overlook App. State has beat teams by 36.2 PPG, while the Ragin' Cajuns are at only +5. Though the New Orleans bowl is not on everyone's wish list, hard to argue a team from West Virginia would love to spend a week in the Big Easy. App. State by 20. 

USC has players, Notre Dame has a really good team. The sense in watching the Fighting Irish is they are peaking. There win at Syracuse showed no fear and the belief and willingness that they are that good to be ranked 3rd. With no conference championship, this is Notre Dame's moment and they win by 20. 

The teams play for the Territorial Cup, which is the oldest trophy in college football dating back to 1899. First-year coaches Herm Edwards and Kevin Sumlin will begin learning how blood-thirsty these Grand Canyon state fans are for their team to win and hold the bragging rights. For better than two decades this was another doesn't make sense rivalry, with the visitor and usually the underdog covering over 85 percent of the time. But like all streaks they eventually end, now the home team is trending at 5-0 SU and ATS. Back Zona! 

Since starting 0-3 against nasty competition, SMU is 5-3 SU. The Mustangs come into this game needing a victory to play in a bowl and they have the better offense and defense over Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane has two wins, one over Central Arkansas and against 1-10 UConn. Need one more reason, try my Super System: Play Against teams when the line is +3 to -3 like Tulsa, with a terrible rushing defense allowing 225 or more rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in two straight games. Betting against these teams have produced a 33-7, 82.5% record. 

In the deep south, this is known as the Battle of the Bayou. For betting purposes this one of those rivalry's you don't over think when placing a bet, just trust the numbers. That's right, skip the stats and records and trust all the clichés relating to "You can throw out the records books when these teams collide." Well not all of them. The road team in this nasty confrontation is 8-0 ATS most recently and 13-2-1 ATS going back 16 years. Just bet it, we do.

Florida International can wrap up the Conference USA East title with a victory over Marshall and initially, oddsmakers gave them the nod at -1.5, before they were flipped to +3 by the wagering masses. No question the Thundering Herd have the pedigree dating back decades ago. However, here are few betting tidbits to think about. It starts with Marshall having a 19-34 ATS record as a road favorite. That is followed by FIU coach Butch Davis being a sharp 10-5 ATS as a home underdog and the sublet of that is the Golden Panthers are 5-0 ATS under his direction. FIU wins this contest outright and advances.

This is Washington State's first 10-win season since they did so in 2001-02. As the numbers suggest, this is a far better Cougars team than usual and not as good of a Washington side. What makes this WSU team so good is their defense, listed second in the Pac-12 against the rush and third against the pass. The Washington offense has been spotty all year and against teams that currently have winning records, that have averaged just 23.2 PPG. This time the Cougars have the better team, are 10-1 ATS this season, 10-2 ATS after leading their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and 8-0 ATS at home after a cover as a double-digit favorite. Wazzo by 7. 

The AAC West title is on the line in this contest.  Houston comes in ranked No. 118 in total defense and faces a Memphis offense that is averaging 51.3 PPG at home. After suffering a lull in the middle of the season, the Tigers are on the prowl and on a 3-0 SU and ATS run. On the tech side, the Cougars are 3-11 ATS off a home win while Memphis is a sparkling 9-1 ATS in last 10 November contests. The Tigers by 14.

Because Oregon gets five points for being at home, oddsmakers are telling us they think Arizona State has the better team. I'm not sure about that, especially in Eugene. I give coach Edwards all the credit in the world, I never thought he could make the Sun Devils even an average team. But last week ASU played with expectations and barely beat UCLA at home and those expectations of knowing of two more wins places them in the Pac-12 championship. With the Devils 15-30 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 and 2-11 ATS in road games after a win by three or fewer points, the Ducks waddle to a nine-point win.

Central Florida has not lost in almost two complete seasons. During the regular season, the Knights have only played teams that had to score to challenge them or those they were completely superior to. Though UCF played Cincinnati last year and blasted them 51-23, the comparison is in name only. This Bearcats team is 9-1 with their only loss in OT at Temple. This Cincinnati squad is physical on both sides of the ball and has more than enough speed to keep up with the Knights. ESPN Game Day is going to Orlando and this is the featured ABC telecast. Do not expect the Bearcats to have any sort of stage fright, as Cincy is 12-6 ATS as conference road dogs. All the pressure is on UCF and keep in mind they beat USF and Memphis by only seven points apiece to close last season. This is a three-point game either way.

Tennessee fans are still acting like it's 1996 to 2006 when they still mattered nationally. Four head coaches later (one interim), Vols fans were ready to cut bait on new head coach Jeremy Pruitt after a 3-5 start and four blowout losses to superior teams talent-wise. While defeating Charlotte and Kentucky is not going to raise an eyebrow in Knoxville, if they upset a solid Missouri club, that means extra practices and a bowl game, which is what coach Pruitt wants as he starts building his program. This would also be a great way for the Tennessee senior's to go out after nothing but tumultuous season's. Missouri got their bowl berth last week against Vanderbilt at home and has more natural rivalry game next week with Arkansas to get the juices flowing. The Vols bring the passion and send the home fans happy at least for one night.

As the season has gone on, Nebraska has gotten better and Michigan State, especially on offense, has gotten dramatically worse. The Cornhuskers have won two straight and covered five in a row and can score on anybody. The Spartans are averaging 19.3 PPG in conference and while I expect them to surpass that total, they are not built for shootouts. Understand this, when the line is +3 to -3 and a team like Michigan State has gone under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, they are 6-25 ATS when this all comes together. The Children of the Corn will be on streaks of 3-0 SU and 6-0 ATS. 

Northwestern is 0-4 outside the Big Ten, yet won the West Division with two weeks to play. Not exactly sure what that means but if we follow the Wildcats we will learn. While coach Pat Fitzgerald will preach continual improvement for his Northwestern team, the players know they are playing for the Big Ten championship regardless of how they play at Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are another strange Big Ten squad. One week after losing to Illinois and giving up 55 points, which led to firing defensive coordinator, Minnesota inexplicably holds Purdue to 10 points in 48-10 rout, crushing any chance for them to win their division. It's Senior Day for the Gophers and a victory means a bowl game, thus, motivation is a key component in this clash. Yes, we realize the Wildcats are 11-3 ATS on the road and we also realize Minnesota is 10-1 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as a double-digit underdog. Minny by 6.

Kent State stinks as 2-8 record shows but they are getting some run because they are 6-4 ATS and 3-0 ATS at home. The Golden Flashes have flashed from +14 to +11.5 against Toledo. My question is can Kent State score enough to keep pace with the Rockets? I don't think they will and found out the Flashes are 7-23 ATS after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game.

South Florida has been exposed as a fraud, losing by more than 20 points twice after a 7-0 start. With USF having allowed almost 294 YPG on the ground on average over their past four games. Cincinnati should have no troubles getting their average of 236 or quite possibly more. The Bearcats real strength is its defense and while the Bulls will put up a fair amount of points, Cincy is 8-0 ATS off a blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival and wins by 21. 

Late info, plus, conference road favorites (LA MONROE) who are an average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G), going against a team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, are 37-11 ATS, winning by 16.7 PPG. 

Iowa was in position to beat both Penn State and Purdue on the road and failed to do so. That left them two games behind first place Northwestern in the Big Ten West Division and giving them almost no hope of reaching the conference title game. While we expect the Hawkeyes to be geared up back at Iowa City, the passion is not likely to sustain with little to play for. Northwestern has everything to play for and they hold the tie-breakers over Wisconsin and Purdue, their closest competitors. The Wildcats are in their best role, a road underdog.  The 'Cats are 28-15 ATS as a road dog catching and 7-0 ATS in away games after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards a play in their previous contest. Iowa by 1. 

Duke is 6-3 on the season but three of those setbacks have occurred in the Blue Devils past five games. Duke has been out-gained in each of their past five outings and that is seldom a mark of a team that is going to cover 10 or more points. North Carolina is hardly a charming proposition at 1-7 and 3-4 ATS. However, being just eight miles from Durham, the Tar Heels do bring some positives. Namely, they are 9-1 ATS after five or more consecutive losses and 5-1 ATS as an underdog. The Heels are also 11-2 SU at Duke and 6-0 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in three games in a row. Duke by only 6. 

Kansas State has basically owned Kansas at 22-4 SU record and 18-8 ATS mark. That includes an 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS mark at home. Kansas earlier this season ended their long road losing streak, but it still continues in the Big 12, where they are 0-43 (13-29-1 ATS), last winning in 2008. Since the day Bill Snyder arrive at the Little Apple, beating Kansas has been a priority. K-State by 17. 

After losing to Georgia, Florida was primed to finish 10-2 and play in a New Year's Day bowl. Evidently, they did not know they actually had to play and win those games to accomplish that, as they were mauled by Missouri in Gainesville 38-17. The Gators lack strong quarterback play and dangerous playmakers. Their defensive front seven is smallish and looks to be wearing down. South Carolina's last four contests have been decided by 12 total points and the Gamecocks have won three of them. At this juncture, South Carolina players believe they can stay in any contest and Florida is 2-12 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. A three-point game either way. 

I'm smelling blowout city with Louisville at Syracuse. The Cardinals players have given up some time ago and a coaching change is coming. Louisville is 1-8 ATS this season and 3-12 ATS under B. Petrino 3-12 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG. The Cards are also 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams averaging 425 or more YPG. Let's make the final score 49-20, Orange. 

The Cal Bears have a really good defense. That's good. The Bears also have a well below average offense. That's bad going against Washington State. The only two teams California has scored more than 24 points against are Idaho State and Oregon State. The Cougars are 100 percent legit and 7-0 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games and 7-0 ATS after gaining 475 or more total YPG over their last three outings. The Cougs by 17. 

After losing three of four, Mississippi State played a quality game and beat a solid Texas A&M crew. That win satisfied bettors enough that they have pushed the bell-clangors from -19.5 to -23 against Louisiana Tech. At this point not saying that is wrong, but coach Skip Holtz road dog teams are 13-6 ATS. Plus, these SEC Bulldogs have Alabama on tap. L.T. covered at LSU earlier this year and road teams after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, against an opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 33-9 ATS. Miss. State wins but by 17 or less. 

Florida was pushed around by a stronger Georgia team last week. But a look at the Gators schedule the rest of the way finds four winnable games that should provide the motivation to finish 10-2. Motivation should not be an issue for Florida since they lost 45-16 at Missouri last year. The Tigers are a disappointing 0-4 in the SEC (0-3-1 ATS) and are running out of reasons to press on. In addition, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points having lost two out of their last three games, against an opponent having won four out of their last five games are 15-37 ATS. Gators by 20.

Purdue's hot streak ran cold in a loss at Michigan State and they will have to match wits with another physical football team this week in Iowa. The Hawkeyes were going in for the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter at Penn State when a receiver made a mistake which led to an interception at the goal line. With a matchup versus Northwestern next and two winnable closing games, Iowa needs this victory to have a chance to win the Big Ten West. With the Hawkeyes 34-14 ATS off a road loss and 27-12 ATS if it happened at conference school, Iowa wins outright.

These are the two lone unbeaten teams in the AAC East and something has to give. We know that Central Florida continues to be an outstanding squad for a second straight year and has a point differential of 26.3 PPG. Temple's season looked over after starting 0-2, both home losses. Playing at Maryland seemed like another defeat, but they dominated 35-14 and are 5-1 and 6-0 ATS since. The Owls average better than two turnovers a game and if they do that in Orlando, they are toast. But if Temple plays physical defense and keeps the game in the 20's, they will move to 9-1 ATS after five or more consecutive wins against the spread.

Texas A&M is not the program they want to be yet, but Jimbo Fisher is adding one key element. After losing to Clemson by two, the Aggies have won three straight by 13 total points. Granted, that is hardly domination, but it proves they know how to win the game is on the line. Mississippi State is rudderless, having lost three of four and their new head coach is unhappy QB Nick Fitzgerald can only run and not pass. Know this, when the line is +3 to -3 and teams like the Bulldogs have gone under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, they are 5-24 ATS since 2009. 

Let's start with this, Stanford is 5-0 SU this season when holding teams to 13 points or fewer, and 0-3 when teams score more. Any takers on Washington State scoring that few of points? That's what I thought. The Cardinal only beat Arizona State because of +3 turnover margin. Washington State is for real and they can drive Stanford crazy with defensive reads and doing the opposite of expected. In addition, teams like WASHINGTON ST. who score 34 or more PPG, against a team allowing 16-21 PPG after 7+ games, after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half, are 30-9 ATS. The Cougs win outright. 

N.C. State can pass but they cannot run, averaging 3.8 YPR. Syracuse has a balanced and more prolific offense, which averages 42.6 PPG. The Wolf Pack opened as an underdog before being shifted to a favorite and that will not suit them because they are  8-20 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less. With N.C. State  2-9 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival, Syracuse wins outright!

Maybe it will turn out differently, but Penn State is laboring, particularly on defense. The Nittany Lions could not hold a two-score lead at home against Ohio State. The following week they again failed at home versus an overrated Michigan State squad and last week they permitted 28 points and 554 yards to a so-so Indiana bunch in victory. Iowa is Iowa, they show up every week and stop the run and have enough offense to keep things close. It might be best to wait and see if you can grab the Hawkeyes at +7, but either way, Iowa is 19-5 ATS vs. teams scoring 37 or more points a game.

Iowa State was going nowhere, then enter QB Brock Purdy. With the ability to pass, the running game opened up and the defense enjoyed working with a lead and the Cyclones are as dangerous as any team in the Big 12. With Texas Tech 5-17 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and Iowa State 15-4 ATS since last season and 7-0 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56, they win by 10. 

Both these ACC squads are 5-2 and the winner stays in the chase to win a division title with future conference games ahead. This matchup is your classic - power vs. speed - confrontation, with a couple twists. Miami has the overall speed edge, but not as much on defense as usual, as Boston College has gone away from their plodding offensive style to more explosive methods and generating big plays. The Eagles are also not the better defensive team like in past years. Being able to get the hook without buying is a plus. Here is the key situational play: Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Hurricanes, who are off a close road loss by three points or less, with a winning record on the season, playing another winning team, are 13-39 ATS since 1992.

Lane Kiffin was more than happy to take all the credit for winning C-USA championship in his first year at Florida Atlantic. The assumption was he could take all the leftovers in fertile Florida market of football players and have great success. This year, with the offensive talent down a bit, FAU has not been nearly as strong as 3-4 record shows and even with that, they are well below market expectations at 1-6 ATS. Give Skip Holtz some points in almost any game and he turns into money for backers. A case could be made Holtz's Louisiana Tech squad is the better team, besides the fact the Bulldogs are 5-2 (4-3 ATS). With Holtz 32-15 ATS a road underdog in his career, we will take the points and make a side that Louisiana Tech winning outright.

I was very high on North Texas coming into the season but was mystified how they lost at home to Louisiana Tech. Previous to that game I was surprised that UAB fell to Coastal Carolina 47-24 as 8.5-point road favorites. However, since then the Blazers have rattled off four straight wins and covers, including laying out Louisiana Tech 28-7 on the road. It goes without saying what coach Bill Clark has done in never giving up on UAB football after the university shut it down, but his teams are 14-5 against conference competition and they win by 6. 

Kentucky averages 223 YPG on the ground, they are at home and rested. Against four Power 5 programs, Vanderbilt has allowed 257 YPG rushing and is 0-4 and 1-3 ATS. The Wildcats are not like their hoops buddies, but this is a good football team and with Vandy a less than dandy last in third-down conversions in the SEC, Kentucky faces a Commodores team that is on a 1-9 ATS SEC downer and is 0-6 ATS after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in last game. The only reason this is not a 10-star game is the 'Cats are 1-8 ATS as faves.  

Oregon expended a lot of energy last week in win over Washington. Washington State has figured out how to play the Ducks, beating them three straight times and they are on an 8-0 ATS run. The Cougars have enjoyed a week off and they should give them ample time to prepare. What I like about this Cougars defense is they rush the passer which covers up weaker elements of their defense. Washington State is 8-0 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in two straight games and wins by 7. 

Just looking at stats is one way to handicap games, but you can miss things compared to watching games. When Wyoming faced New Mexico State in Week Zero, you could see they had a good defense, but the Cowboys has offensive shortcomings. Six days later, Utah State almost upset Michigan State in East Lansing and the Aggies had a dynamic offense. Fast forward to today and what looked true has played out for Wyoming and Utah State. The Aggies are for real and are  6-0 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards over their last three games. Conversely, Wyoming is  4-13 ATS after scoring 14 points or less.

Definitely, have lost value with Buffalo going from +3 to -1, but the line adjustment is accurate. Toledo is not up to its usual standard and its best win as a 3-3 team is over Nevada at home. The Bulls are 6-1 and upset Temple in Week 2 and the Owls have not lost since. When home teams like the Rockets are matched up with the line is +3 to -3, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, against an opponent off a home win by 17 points or more, they are 20-49 ATS.

This is the time of year all football betting experts start looking at undefeated teams and look where they might falter. This is a natural one for 5-0 Colorado since they are 0-9 since the turn of the century when facing USC. But before we write off the Buffs, let's consider their confidence and having a strong-armed quarterback in Steven Montez, who can keep them in any contest. It's not like this is a vintage Trojans club, which is actually being outscored on the season. Colorado might falter, but USC is 5-14 ATS since last season.

There are those that think this spread is too high because of the Wyoming defense and those that think that have a point. However, two elements are being ignored. Fresno State is highly efficient on offense and is No.4 in the nation in Yards Per Point. The Bulldogs are averaging 40 PPG and they just scored 21 at Nevada, thus, it's not hard to imagine at home they reach 35 to 40. The Cowboys only score 17.5 PPG and Nevada allows 15. Fresno State is 15-3 ATS the last two years and 8-1 ATS after playing their last game on the road. The Bulldogs by 21. 

In most football bettors eyes, each of these clubs has been a disappointment in various ways. Each is staring at a second defeat in the middle of October already and there were few bright spots to fire up the alumni. This does not mean either cannot play the Big Ten championship in December, but they need to start assembling winner performances. Wisconsin is 5-2-1 ATS in the Big House in recent visits and they are 11-1 ATS on the road since 2016. Make the total in the 42.5 and 49 point range away from home (48 at last look) and Bucky Badger is a perfect 12-0 ATS.

Illinois is 3-2, which for them is really good, considering their lousy football history. The Fighting Illini have won the games they were favored and lost the ones they were not and are 3-2 ATS altogether. One could make a case for Purdue being at least 4-1 if not 5-0 if they could have closed out their first three contests, all losses, by a total of eight points. The Boilermakers are deserving favorite, but the Illinois defense by Big Ten standards is improving and the offense is putting together a solid run game with explosive plays. The Illini defense is generating better than two turnovers a contest and Purdue will make miscues. Illinois falls, but by just 7.

In other Pac-12 action, Washington could all but punch their ticket to the conference title game with a victory. But don't overlook Oregon, who would be 5-0 except for blowing a lead and losing to Stanford. The Huskies offense is more workmanlike than treacherous and the Ducks led by QB Justin Herber, are primed at Eugene to strut their stuff. Having been thoroughly embarrassed in being blown out 118-24 the past two years by Washington, Oregon is ready and this is a two-point outcome either way. 

By all appearances, Louisville has thrown in the towel already. Bobby Petrino cannot recruit like he used to, he lost his safety blanket when the AD was fired and the players are going thru the motions. Boston College lost to an undervalued N.C State last week but covered. The Eagles are forcing almost three turnovers a game which is about how often the Cardinals are turning it over. Like Papa John's which has its headquarters in Louisville, the Cardinals are not relevant anymore and are  0-7 ATS in road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG the last three seasons and they lose by 20. 

Duke's pass defense let them down on Sept. 29th and they were upset by Virginia Tech at home 31-14. That will not happen versus Georgia Tech's option, because the Yellow Jackets have 17 pass attempts in their last three tilts. However, the Jackets have scored 129 points in their past two games and posted over 900 yards rushing, which is they are favored at home. But Duke has a quality front seven on defense and while they might not be Clemson, they are in the Top 4 of the ACC. With the Blue Devils 12-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less and if drill down further, they are 6-0 ATS when catching 3 or less away from Durham, it's the Dukies outright.

I was amazed as anyone the Badgers have gone down as a favorite against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are reeling and Wisconsin should be refreshed off a bye. Almost impossible to imagine to the Badgers don't grind the Children of the Corn down to bite-size morsels and send Nebraska to 2-11 ATS after one or more straight up losses. 

I'm a big fan of what Mark Stoops is doing at Kentucky. Unfortunately, on Saturday night in Aggie-Land the joy ends. We saw what kind of team Texas A&M can be against Clemson. The Aggies have been staunch against the run, which is the Wildcats offense for all intents and purposes. Watch for the Aggies to slow Kentucky, make big plays in the passing game and win by 13. 

Here is the game, Georgia Southern is 6th nationally in rushing yards and USA is 120th in trying to stop the run. It won't happen immediately, but over four quarters South Alabama will fall to 1-13 ATS after a game where they committed one or less turnovers and lose by 17.

Syracuse is stronger on both lines and will be able to run the ball in particular on Pittsburgh. There is a significant edge at QB for the Orange, which is more than enough of an edge for point differential. Besides this, road favorites at this price the current total are 11-1 ATS. The Cuse by 7 or more.

Nothing to quibble about in understanding who is the stronger team, it's Oklahoma. But this is not breaking news as the Sooners have been an -8.5 to -16.5 points favorite each of the past five years in the Red River Rivalry and failed to cover the spread each time, losing twice. This Texas team is still not the most stable mentally, sometimes lacking confidence, other times playing too overconfident. This Longhorns squad has risen to the moment in their two biggest challenges, USC and TCU and won both games. Not forecasting a "W" for the Horns, but they are 7-0 ATS vs. teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards per attempt.

While the "Holy War" receives and deserves most of the attention as the rivalry in the state of Utah, don't sell this one short, especially for Utah State. The Aggies are a lot like other schools in other states, down the list of where recruits want to play. Annually, they have players that thought they were more than good enough to play at BYU or Utah but were passed over. Utah State has more than enough offense to give the Cougars a hard time at 51.5 PPG, with BYU checking in at 21.4 PPG. With Utah State 10-5 ATS against their state rivals, expect them to cash.

Toledo yet again might be the best team in the MAC. The Rockets can score and have a lot of firepower. But Fresno State is a different animal. Coach Jeff Tedford is an offensive coach and while his team does still score over 40 PPG, the defense is holding foes to 16 PPG which is below those teams normal average. Tedford is raisin country is 13-3 ATS, winning by 12.5 PPG and duplicates what he has accomplished with the Bulldogs. 

Washington State was sent out by sportsbooks as a 1.5-point favorite, but after baking awhile, they came out of the oven at +2. No question a case could be made for Utah, who is 16-7 ATS off a home loss and 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record. But if you have seen the Utes, they still lack a consistent passing offense, which is to their detriment. This Cougars offense can still wing it and they are No.2 nationally in passing. And Washington State seems to be an improved defensive squad. With Mike Leach teams 14-4 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games, it's the Cougs by 7.

Under Gus Malzahn, Auburn is not known for stability. They often play to the level of competition and are not thought of as tough-minded. Malzahn's best Auburn squad was his first, which was 75 percent Gene Chizik recruits from the prior years. In his time at Auburn, Malzahn is 10-16-1 ATS in non-SEC contests and 5-13-1 ATS when favored by 20 or more points. Southern Miss has a long history of facing big-time opponents (this goes back to the Brett Favre days when he beat Alabama and Auburn in the same year) and they have covered the number the last three times against the Tigers. The Golden Eagles are No.9 in passing in the country and an inferior team that can throw and score always has a shot to cover when catching large points. Auburn by 23. 

With Western Michigan having the overall stronger football program and beating Miami-O five straight times (covering the last four), the Broncos have been ridden from +3 to -2. Another good reason to support Western Mich. is the fact they have the superior offense, more than doubling the Redhawks output. (36.7 vs. 17.2 PPG) With the total at 53.5, Miami-O is 0-7 ATS at home when the total is between 49.5 and 56. The Broncos by 8.

There will be a lot of talk about Clemson and revenge. Given the Tigers place in college football does a game against Syracuse make the pulse rise? I say probably not, especially against a spread this high. In spite of how good the Clemson defense is, the Orange have a extremely balanced offense and they cannot take everything away. There is no chance of an upset, but road teams like the 'Cuse averaging 6.2 or more YPP, against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 or less YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-9 ATS. Clemson by 20. 

These two programs appear to be headed in opposite directions at the moment and it appears that the Chip Kelly era is going to get off to a slow start in Westwood. Kelly does not have the right players to run is his offense which is why they are averaging 17.3 PPG. The UCLA defense has been a mess for years and that continues with them allowing 37.7 PPG. Colorado has a nicely balanced offense led by QB Steven Montez that averages almost 500 YPG and scores 41 PPG. With the Bruins 2-10 ATS in September the last few years and 11-28 ATS after scoring seven points or less in the first half of two straight games, it's the Buffalos by 14. 

College football has conference numbers that make no sense. You might have two fairly evenly matched teams but one always seems to struggle against the other. Take is Pac-12 encounter, where Washington is 1-10 SU versus Arizona State and is incredible 0-11 ATS. The fact is the Huskies have only been favored in the last two, thus, part this is not an impossible outcome. Still, name another matchup that finds one team on an 11-0 spread roll? Watch for the Sun Devils to fall, but just by 14 points. 

LSU is coming off an emotional win over Auburn and does not stand to gain much by beating Louisiana Tech. No question some Bulldogs players thought they were good enough to play at LSU and they will be motivated. Next, let's start with Skip Holtz being 30-15 ATS as an underdog coach in his FBS career and follow that up with road underdogs like LOUISIANA TECH, in a game involving two good running teams,  both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last contest, are 37-12 ATS. LSU wins by 17.

Defeating Southern Utah does not count for much, which is what both these Pac-12 clubs have done for their lone victory. Arizona looked ridiculously bad in losses to BYU and Houston. Whatever Kevin Sumlin thought he might be walking into in a positive sense, that has not worked out. Oregon State was coming off a 1-11 campaign and new coach and former player Jonathan Smith has been working overtime to change the culture. Though they lost 77-31 at Ohio State, the Beavers hung 721 yards on the Buckeyes. Last Saturday, after trailing 30-7 at Nevada, OSU missed a 33-yard game winning field goal on the last play of the game. With the Wildcats 0-8 ATS in road games after two contests where 60 or more total points were tallied, we'll side with the eager Beavers who could win.

Kansas State is not what they used to be in Bill Snyder's first tour of duty, but for whatever reason the Wildcats have enjoyed a good success against West Virginia with a 5-1 ATS mark, winning four times. Snyder's teams have always thrived as road underdogs with a 20-10 ATS record and West Virginia under Dana Holgersen is 4-15 ATS with two weeks between games. The Mountaineers win by 12. 

Clemson's defense is allowing 89 rushing YPG, leads the ACC in sacks, and is sixth in the country in tackles for loss. How do you disrupt the option, generate penetration and use the speed on the outside to stay in the lanes. The option that Georgia Tech runs doesn’t work against this. The Yellow Jackets have no passing game and Clemson knows exactly what to do. The Tigers have more than enough offense and is 11-2 ATS away after playing two nonconference games. Clemson by at least 21.

Hard to explain how Maryland played last week in being throttled by Temple. Minnesota is making real progress under coach P. J. Fleck but the offense is not there despite a 3-0 record. If you saw last year's game as I did, the Terps have a huge speed edge and are coming off a bad loss and they should be excited to get back and play to make amends. The Turtles are a solid 26-13 ATS in home games after a loss by 17 or more points and win by 6. 

SMU cannot run, throw or play very good defense. That's a problem. Navy, of course, can run and they are second in the nation in doing so at over 355 yards on the ground. This type of offense is demoralizing to face over four quarters and Navy have beat up on SMU at 11-2 and 10-3 ATS, which includes 6-0 and 5-1 ATS in Dallas. I have a Super System that says home underdogs after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games, against opponent after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight contests, are 6-28 ATS. Navy by 17. 

Boy, Ohio State has really missed Urban Meyer! The Buckeyes are one of the four most talented teams in the country and that will show on Saturday night. If this game was in TCU, this might be trickier, but there will be thousands of Buckeyes fans in Dallas and any home field edge will be negated. TCU will be very competitive into the third quarter when Ohio State talent starts to matter and cranks up the defense and the running game and win this matchup going away by 19. 

It's the conference opener for these two MAC squads that are both 2-0. This is their first matchup in four years in a crossover contest among the divisions. Each team arrives feeling really good about itself, winning on the road as underdogs. In terms of whom to choose, here is why Eastern Michigan is the right choice. The Eagles have been money the last few years at 20-7 against the spread. They can hang inside the number on the road as their 12-2 ATS record proves and give them a bone (points) away from home and they are 7-0 ATS, losing by less than a point per game (0.9).

Kansas State was flat out pummeled by Miss. State and has to regroup. UTSA's defense has permitted over 1,000 yards in two games and has to go on the road again. The Wildcats should find a nice offensive rhythm and the defense will want to hit somebody after being shoved around last week. Coach Bill Snyder teams are 12-0 ATS after being outrushed by 200 or more yards and 9-0 ATS after allowing 300 or more rushing yards in last game. K-State by 26. 

After a strong opener, UAB could not stop the run against Coastal Carolina on the road and got hammered 47-24 as 8.5 point favorites. Sportsbooks have made the Blazers a home underdog which could work to their advantage. UAB has a nice history on the receiving end of points with 27-11 ATS mark. Third-year coach Willie Fritz has upgraded the Green Wave program to the point they could be bowl eligible. However, old habits die hard and this is still a Tulane team that is 14-57 SU on the road over a long period. Let's call for UAB outright.

Sticking with history in the battle for the Victory Bell. Cincinnati has won 12 in a row over Miami-O. There is nothing to suggest based on that alone the Redhawks should be favored on a neutral field. Watch Miami throw for yards, but find the end zone hard to reach, while the Bearcats pound away on the ground and wear their in-state rivals down. Cincy by 3. 

Southern Miss was the far more impressive team last against a weaker opponent. Yet Monroe put up 554 yards last week which shows their diverse offensive potential and they have 17 starters back. Southern Miss comes into this contest 3-14 ATS at home after outgaining foe by 225 or more total yards. The point spread is right in the Warhawks wheelhouse since they are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog of seven points or less. The clincher, in the first two weeks of the season, teams like Monroe that closed out last season with three or more straight losses, returning 8+ offensive starters and a QB, against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 26-4 ATS.

Southern Miss was the far more impressive team last against a weaker opponent. Yet Monroe put up 554 yards last week which shows their diverse offensive potential and they have 17 starters back. Southern Miss comes into this contest 3-14 ATS at home after outgaining foe by 225 or more total yards. The point spread is right in the Warhawks wheelhouse since they are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog of seven points or less. The clincher, in the first two weeks of the season, teams like Monroe that closed out last season with three or more straight losses, returning 8+ offensive starters and a QB, against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 26-4 ATS.

Let's face it, betting against Georgia is not a particularly wise move these days. Yet, this South Carolina crew has a bit of an edge about them and coming into the season and they were a spotlight team that might be taking flight this season. The Gamecocks have a good offensive unit and coach Will Muschamp always has the defense ready to go. Not calling for the outright upset, just like the 'Cocks as 9-4-1 ATS home roosters.

If Navy's defense could not contain Hawai'i's offense (they surrendered 59 points), what chance would they have against high-powered Memphis? The Midshipmen rarely have two clunkers in a row and coach Ken Niumatalolo has been great at getting his team's attention right away and is 14-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in their last outing. There is nothing really bad to say about Memphis, other than the fact they are 4-14 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. Memphis might win, just by four or less.  

Lane Kiffin's FAU crew was humbled at Oklahoma and needs to deliver a superior effort. But Air Force is not just any road underdog and in recent years, they have covered the spread at Michigan, Michigan State, and Boise State. Those places are far more intimating and the Falcons are 7-2 ATS the last few years catching points.

More than one sportsbook has Ed Orgeron as their first coach fired in 2018. New LSU quarterback Joe Burrow could not get playing time at Ohio State and transferred to the bayou. Take those two giant chips on people's shoulders and add in a strong running game and a defense that is only lacking in game experience and we might have an upset brewing. Orgeron likes to meddle a bit, but he has high-priced assistants he just needs to leave alone and get his Tigers ready to play. Orgeron, either as a head coach or an assistant, always performed best when the least was expected from his squads. LSU can win this game and remember, the half point hook could be very important. 

There is a lot of talk about the strength of the SEC, especially at the top these days, with several weaker clubs a couple rungs down. There is a presumption since this game is in SEC territory (Atlanta), it will be like a home game for the Tigers. But Auburn has just one O-Line returning and if they push a very good Washington defensive front around, they would be an upset. The Huskies secondary is again oozing talent and playing in the Pac-12, they see plenty of exceptional pass receivers. No question the pressure is on Washington to stand up for the conference and it's time for QB Jake Browning to have a breakout performance.

Iowa for years was money during the nonconference part of the Hawkeyes schedule when coach Kirk Ferentz was doing his predecessor Hayden Fry imitation. But those days are gone with Iowa just 13-18-1 ATS in the role the last seven years. NIU's been down a bit the past three years with QB injuries but Marcus Childers fits their system. The offensive line is always tough and on defense, the Huskies are strong in the trenches and in the secondary. With NIU 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points recently, Iowa escapes by 8.

Washington State is not New Mexico State, but Wyoming showed right away what kind of defense they have, permitting one score with 76 seconds remaining when leading 29-0. The Cougars have to break in a new quarterback and have just four offensive starters back. Coach Mike Leach's team will move the ball because they always do, but look for Wyoming to force turnovers and turn those into points. With the Cowboys 16-6 ATS at home after out-gaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game, expect a minor upset in Laramie.

The Big Ten made a deal with networks to play games on days other than Saturday's, which will bring them in even more money. The winner of this game stays in contention for the bridesmaid spot behind Wisconsin in the Big Ten West. QB Clayton Thorson is loved by NFL scouts for his arm and demeanor. He's coming off a major injury, but limited reports have his mobility in good form. Northwestern is the bigger stronger team and is 8-3 ATS (6-5 SU) at West Lafayette and under coach Pat Fitzgerald, they are a sharp 27-15 ATS as road underdogs.

The Cowboys return 18 starters from a year ago, but one person who is missing is first round pick Josh Allen, while New Mexico State lost two of their best offensive players in school history and their quarterback. Even with Allen, Wyoming was 125th in offense last year and this group will be far more experienced and presumably will play better. Both teams return a number of defensive starters but Wyoming's might be the best in MWC and Top 5 in all of the West.

The Cowboys have not always thrived in the role as road favorites and are 5-10 ATS since 2007, but New Mexico State is 2-8 ATS in their first lined home game of a new campaign and 16-25-2 ATS as a home underdog the last decade. Both teams have to find quarterbacks, but I'll side with Wyoming because their personnel losses were not as steep and they have a sounder all-around squad. Wyoming by 6 or more.  

The third installment of this playoff battle has a completely different storylines than the previous two. Alabama was thought to have a nearly perfect team, but that was until they went 2-5 ATS down the stretch, and were decidedly beaten by Auburn. The old "Give Nick Saban a month to prepare" was dispelled by Clemson last year in the title game (and largely the year prior). The Crimson Tide might have revenge, but the Tigers want back-to-back titles like Bama did in 2011-12.

For my money, Saban is the greatest college football coach ever, but eventually the tide changes (pun intended) and Dabo Sweeney has a team which has no fear of Bama. Check out these numbers, the underdog in Clemson's last 15 bowl games is 14-1 ATS, which includes Swinney being 7-0 ATS in that role. Finally, Swinney's teams are 9-1 SU after the regular season ends since 2012 and are underdogs as the top seed! Clemson outright!

I understand Baker Mayfield is a great quarterback and his team is loaded offensively. But this Georgia team is loaded in all facets. The Bulldogs will keep Mayfield off the field with their potent running game that averages 264 YPG, at 5.8 YPC. If Georgia runs as expected, Mayfield is standing on the sidelines. And this can happen as four different teams have rushed for over 200 yards against the Sooners. While I think Oklahoma is dangerous, Georgia is just better, the Dawgs by 7. 

Strong Leans - South Carolina, Notre Dame, Tigers/Knights OVER 67