This game has been following me around since the bowl matchups were made on Dec. 3rd. Almost every handicapper I know, (there are exceptions) has been on UCF and I understood why. And it was for the usual reasons, Auburn might be flat or uninterested and Central Florida will want to win for their coach, themselves and make history for being unbeaten. Saturday convinced me what the right choice was. If Iowa State could slow Memphis offense down, which was 2nd best scoring team in the country, why can't a top defense like Auburn contain UCF? The Tigers will have a much stronger pass rush and while I like the Knights QB, he's never seen a D-Line or secondary like this. If USF and Memphis can score 42 or more at UCF, why can't Auburn score in the upper 40's? I am done for now handicapping games in which a team could be flat if they have had more than three weeks to prepare. In a world of everything being instant, why young players hang on to previous disappointment? Bigger, faster, stronger Auburn wins 48-34. 

When I first thought about this pick, I was squeamish, wondering if I was making the right choice. Mississippi State not having QB Nick Fitzgerald is a big deal, but that offensive line could push Louisville around for 60 minutes. Then I realized that Lamar Jackson will want to go out in style and if this turns into a high scoring contest as expected, that is a decided advantage for the Cardinals, with the Bulldogs not really capable of playing at a frenetic pace. This to me is where the game changes and Jackson will be the difference-maker and the 'Ville builds on three-game winning streak and wins 38-28.

After being thrashed by Duke in Northwestern's second game, the Wildcats looked like one of the most overrated teams this season and were sitting at 2-3 after Penn State shellacking. Then the squad we expected to see showed up and they been gathering momentum ever sense. Northwestern is on 7-0 SU and ATS tear, playing tremendous run defense and running the pigskin down the opponents throats. Kentucky might be getting seven points, but it will not be enough and in their past two contests against stellar rushing teams, they have been ground up for 727 yards. When 'Cats find their stride they can be hard to stop and they are 11-3 ATS away after two or more spread winners. Northwestern by 13 or more.

After losing three in a row in the middle of the season, the Wake Forest offense got white hot and over a four-game stretch was 3-1 and 4-0 ATS and fabulous in averaging 43.2 PPG. I do not see Texas A&M being particularly inspired in this contest, with their future ahead of them with Jimbo Fisher as head coach. Toss in the Demon Deacons are 7-0 ATS in December bowl games, I like them by a touchdown or more. 

The Eagles hit the Bronx on an 8-0-1 ATS streak, and with SU wins in five of their last six, including routs of Virginia, Florida State and Syracuse. The Boston College defense has allowed 17 points or fewer in five consecutive games, and held three opponents to 10 or fewer points. B.C. also has averaged 290 yards per game rushing the back end of the season. Iowa has lost five straight bowl games and gave up over 200 yards on the ground to three good running teams, which Boston College fits. The clincher, ACC-Big Ten bowl underdogs are incredible 17-1-1 ATS when these two conferences meet. 

UtahWins and Covers Byowning time of possession and not making mistakes. Utah normally does a good job in holding on to the pigskin at 32:01 minutes a game. If they play wisely, they could do even more than that against West Virginia, who was only at 27:44 T.O.P. For Utah that would mean running the ball and looking to wear down the Mountaineers defense as the game progresses. The Utes were often very accommodating to the opposition, averaging two turnovers a game. The Utah defense had decent numbers, permitting 23.9 points a game and 353 yards. If West Virginia had Grier and RB Justin Crawford (no-show because of NFL draft), there would be greater concern about the Utes defense, since they struggled against teams that had speed and ability to manufacture points with expediency. Utah will have the quarterback edge with a healthy Tyler Huntley and as long as he limits mistakes, the Utes should be in good shape. In addition, Utes coach Kyle Whittingham knows a thing or two about bowl game preparation, with an astonishing 10-1 SU (8-3 ATS) record. Lastly, Play Against teams like the 'Teers rushing for 4.3 to 4.8 YPR, against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games.  Clubs like West Virginia are abysmal 4-26 ATS. 

Houston had some ups and downs in Major Applewhite's first year at the helm, losing three times in games they had late leads or were unfocused against beatable competition. Make no mistake, the Cougars have ability with the right mindset. No such problems at Fresno State as Jeff Tedford walked right and fixed the attitude of the players and program and they responded immediately and could have 10-win season after going 1-11. The Bulldogs defense was bullish and is ninth in points allowed at 17.2 PPG. This group runs to the ball and gang tackles with purpose. The offense was what you saw from Tedford at Cal, as they run fairly effectively and throw the ball the same and play with real passion. I will back the more stable Fresno State team to finish 11-2 ATS.

South Florida went toe to toe on the road with unbeaten Central Florida, but lost in the waning moments by seven. If you have not seen Quinton Flowers play quarterback, you have to watch. Flowers runs the No.9 offense in the country that is equally adept at running (265 YPG) as it is at passing (243 YPG). Flowers is a true dual threat and the running backs and receivers have outstanding speed and they do everything in a hurry, averaging 84 plays a game. South Florida's defensive looked good in allowing 343 YPG and should know what to expect. South Florida has edges they can exploit against a pedestrian Texas Tech defense with their speed. Plus, Flowers gives the Bulls a decided edge at quarterback.

The Chippewas were 8-4 and 7-5 ATS this year and closed their season white-hot with a 5-0 SU and ATS finish. What changed for the Chips, their offense found another gear. Against mostly stronger competition, Central Michigan averaged mere 21.8 points a contest. They enter this bowl contest on a major roll at 41.2 PPG. What set the table was the continued development of the running game, which averaged 178 YPG, after being at 119.5 YPG. This will be important against Wyoming who has been somewhat vulnerable to the rush in allowing 172 YPG. The Chippewas were 5-2 SU and ATS on the road this season, which usually matters in bowls and they are 9-2 ATS after two or more straight spread winners.

While the Final Four participants will be excited to play their games, I'm not sure a there will be squad more ready to play than UAB. With a football program that was closed down, coach Bill Clark never lost faith, the Blazers were born again and were 8-4 SU and ATS. This is a treat beyond words for them and this is their chance to say thanks for all that never gave up hope. Ohio U. lost their last two games and chance to win the MAC East and while the Bahamas is a nice secondary place to play, not certain about the Bobcats intensity. Also MAC bowl teams are 4-15 ATS off a loss by six or less points. Look for UAB to slide under the oddsmakers number in a three-point game either way. 

I have really been impressed with the speed of several C-USA teams and no doubt FIU being from Florida has the same qualities. Temple is a nice club, but they lost six times for a reason. Also, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like FIU, after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are a sharp 32-9 ATS.

The Cure Bowl will not be laden with excitement with Georgia State taking on Western Kentucky. Nonetheless, for my money the edge go to the Hilltoppers.  Georgia State was outscored 270-217 this season and having watched them twice, their quarterback is either fairly accurate or not at all, especially when facing pass rush. Western Kentucky was not up to its usual standards offensively, having problems in the red zone and with turnovers. However, Mike White is still a good quarterback and his team should be able to put up at least 30 points on a not so speedy defense. All three of my models have the Hilltoppers winning by at least nine points and I will back that up. 

The Army/Navy game always holds a certain appeal and now it has more gusto with both teams having winning records again and Black Knights finally ending long losing streak in last year's battle. I will admit, I always have pulled for the Army, not sure exactly why, but have not bet on them many times over the years in this matchup. That will change in this year's contest. As noted in the game previews here, this is the lowest Navy (-3.5) has been favored in this game in 15 years. Army has covered six of the last eight meetings and they have gone from a team hoping they could win, to knowing they can after last year. The Black Knights of the Hudson outright.

No lack of motivation for unbeaten Wisconsin, being an underdog against 10-2 Ohio State. The Badgers are in the college football playoff with a victory and while it is probably true the Buckeyes have better overall talent, against the same six foes each team played, Ohio State only had 0.2 PPG edge. Both teams offenses starts by running the ball and while the Buckeyes will get their fair share of yards, Wisconsin's defense allowed 54 YPG in November, for 1.7 YPC. Also, as long as QB Alex Hornibrook does not start making poor choices throwing, the Badgers can cover the six points. Big Ten title game dogs are perfect 6-0 ATS!

An Auburn sweep of Georgia all but assures they will be the first team with two losses in the College Football Playoffs, yet considering who they would have beaten, not many will complain. One major difference, no home cooking for the Tigers, as the crowd will be pro-Georgia in Atlanta. Auburn is the hottest team in the country and has shown they can win the line of scrimmage against the Bulldogs and they have a hot QB in Jarrett Stidham. If Georgia has anywhere close the same problems in the trenches, they will be beat again. But I do not think they will and with coach Kirby Smart off the Saban coaching tree, you know this week has been intense for the linemen. Look for the Dawgs to create third and short on offense and third and long on defense to win and my guess is Auburn's Kerryon Johnson's shoulder injury is a real deal. After thinking they blew chance to reach CFP, Georgia advances with victory.

TCU coach Gary Patterson was hoping for another shot at Oklahoma, firmly convinced the mistakes made in trailing Oklahoma 38-14 at the half were correctable and also having setting away from Norman. This is still not a good matchup for the Horned Frogs with top two running backs gone for the year and QB Kenny Hill not in the same class as Baker Mayfield as a big game performer. And it will not help standout safety Nick Orr will miss first half because of targeting call in last game. The Sooners loss to Iowa State reset their mental focus and the Oklahoma offense is all but unstoppable against Big 12 competition. Boomer Sooner by 12.

If you plan on watching the AAC championship, you better set aside most of the afternoon. Central Florida and Memphis have tremendous offenses and are the Top 2 scoring teams in the country. UCF has never lost to Memphis, with a perfect 10-0 record (6-4 ATS), which includes a 40-13 stomping back in September in Orlando. In that contest, the Tigers lost the turnover battle 3-1 and to win this championship they will have to flip that number in their favor. All the pressure is on UCF at home and they have only covered one of their last four contests, while Memphis is rolling since losing to the Knights with a 7-0 and 6-1 ATS (spread loss was by half point) record and road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, in a game involving two teams averaging 440 or more YPG, after gaining 525 or more YPG over their last three outings, are 33-9 ATS.               

In many cases, a large favorite like Florida Atlantic at home in a conference championship, in which they won previous contest by 38 points, would lead to football bettor preferring the underdog. Complacency would seep in being at home and though they might win, they would fail to cover. I do not see that happening with Lane Kiffin, because he wants all the credit he can garner and going to a school like Florida Atlantic that was picked to finish 3rd to 5th in their division in Conference USA, only boosts Kiffin's stock. That is not the only rationale, as the Owls have the nation's No.6 rushing offense and averages 6.0 yards a carry, while the North Texas defense permits over 200 yards a game rushing and 4.8 YPC. FAU wins the C-USA title by 14 or more points. 

This is not your typical Air Force team. They are not running the triple option with normal precision and have committed at least two turnovers in seven of their 11 contests. During their current three-game losing streak, the Flyboys are being outscored 31-11. Utah State on the other hand is playing well and are 3-1 SU and ATS, with only setback to Boise State, which is hardly a disgrace. With the Falcons a two-point favorite and being 3-11 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half, let's call for Utah State to win the game. 

After betting against South Carolina in opener versus N.C. State, the Gamecocks caught my eye in how they played and what they do right. After that I wagered with them three other times, all as underdogs and cashed three tickets. South Carolina is taking care of the details on offense and defense which keeps them in contests. They convert on the big third downs and play great defense when they need that same third down stop. While I believe Clemson is the better squad, in spite of rivalry game, this means far more to the Gamecocks with the Tigers playing for a third consecutive ACC title and realistically having an opponent who can really challenge them in Miami. Because the game is in Columbia, the home team players will be talking about last year's 56-7 beat down and be ready to play and cover the number. 

This contest is known as - The Civil War - and based on the fact Oregon is 25-point favorite, this should not be much of a contest in Eugene. Oregon State's 58-27 loss to pedestrian Colorado State club in their opener set the table for a rotten season at 1-10 (3-8 ATS). The Beavers defense is being shredded for 40.6 PPG which would be disastrous against Oregon. The Ducks got their regular starting quarterback Justin Herbert back from a broken collarbone and they ambushed Arizona 48-28 last week. When Hebert has played, Oregon has averaged 49.3 PPG and Oregon State is not built for shootouts.

Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like ILLINOIS, after allowing 37 points or more in last game, against opponent after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight games, are awful 9-39 ATS. 

N.C. State is a deserving 16-point home favorite over their cross-state rivals North Carolina. The Wolfpack have the better offense and defense coming in this contest and should handle the Tar Heels with ease. However, after starting 6-1, N.C. State has dropped three off four and while there is nothing wrong with losing to Notre Dame and Clemson, if the Wolfpack was really that good, they should not have struggled with Boston College and lost to Wake Forest the last couple games. On the other end of the spectrum, UNC is coming off consecutive wins and is on a 3-0 ATS run which, includes a cover over Miami-Fl. While I am not calling for upset, the Heels are 8-4 SU and ATS in Raleigh and cover the spread.

Currently, there is four-way tie for first place in the Sun Belt Conference and either visiting Appalachian State or Georgia State will remain in the hunt after this confrontation. Both teams are rested and coming off byes. The Mountaineers average 30.7 PPG on the season, yet when on the road, the offense is not as potent and they slide to 25 PPG. Additionally, on defense, App. State allows better than 11 PPG more away from home, which all leads to disappointing 0-5 ATS road record. Though Georgia State's pass offense is good enough to be ranked 28th nationally, they only average 21.9 PPG (26.3 PPG in SBC), but they are capable of outburst and I will call for them to win this skirmish outright.  

The Commonwealth Clash features two teams not playing their best football of the season. Virginia Tech has lost two of three and not covered their past three games. Virginia has dropped four of five and been turning the ball over with great regularity. So who the edge, the Cavaliers. The Hokies have NOTHING to play for, Virginia, oh, just losing 13 in a row to their state rival, that's all. Home underdogs in this spread and total range have covered 22 of the last 32 times this has come up and this is three-point game either way. 

#102  Akron -15

Back in sync on offense, Kent State down.

In Los Angeles, the winner of the Victory Bell is a really big deal in this cross-town rivalry. Nationally, the game itself is not particularly important, however, what makes this storied rivalry worth watching is the quarterback clash of Sam Darnold against Josh Rosen. Though Rosen will have a chance to shine, chances are he will be in usual come from behind mode. The UCLA defense is among the worst in the country, ranked 123rd in points allowed (38.6 PPG) and 124th in yards allowed (499). With USC having stopped turning the ball over three times a game, with just two in assembling 3-0 SU and ATS win streak, I do not see how the Bruins end up being within 20 points and the Trojans win 51-28.

Sometimes you just have to follow the numbers. Missouri has won four in a row, covered six straight and has outscored the opposition by eye-popping 37.2 PPG. (not a misprint) In this period the Tigers offense has averaged 53.7 PPG. Vanderbilt on the other hand has lost six of seven (1-5-1 ATS) after 3-0 start to the season. All six setbacks have come in the SEC where they have been carved up like Thanksgiving turkey for 46.1 PPG. In putting these numbers together for comparison, it is not real difficult to see what is the right side to back.

I think oddsmakers had it right to begin with, making Marshall a -1.5 point road favorite. Since Tuesday, the money has flowed towards UTSA, who is now at -1. Statistically, the teams are very similar, with the Roadrunners have an overall better defense, thought some the numbers have come against a weaker schedule. Drilling down we find Marshall is as good edge on both sides of the ball in a category known as - Yards Per Point. Basically whatthis tells us is the Thundering Herd is more efficient on offense and stingier on defense. Now let's close this out with Marshall 4-1 ATS on the road this season and UTSA is 0-4 ATS at home, which is hard to ignore.

Central Florida is three wins away from undefeated 12-0 season and returning to a Super Six bowl for the first time in four years. The Knights have the top scoring team in the country at 48.6 PPG and their defense is no slouch in permitting only 20.7 PPG. Still there are signs of stress since they are handing over two touchdown spread on the road to Temple. UCF has not covered a spread since Oct. 14th (0-2-1 ATS) and they are facing Owls crew who has improved since September and is 5-1 ATS, after 0-4 spread start. Temple has the passing offense to stay in the game and if the Knights allow 199 or more rushing yards like they have in past five games (on average), the Owls can put a scare into them.

After holding four straight Big 12 foes to 27 total points, TCU was torched for 38 points in 30 minutes against Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs mission is to win out and get another shot against the Sooners in Big 12 championship. TCU did not figure to have an easy time with Texas Tech on the road as they have permitted 32.2 PPG against the four best offenses they have taken on and the Red Raiders match that profile in scoring 38.2 PPG. It has also been a bad week on the injury front for TCU, first losing leading rusher Darius Anderson (season), then QB Kenny Hill not even travel with team and two other defensive starters are not expected to play. The Frogs are 1-4 and 0-5 ATS in Lubbock since 1993. With detractors calling for a new head coach at Texas Tech, Kliff Kingsbury needs to beat TCU and Texas next week to save his job. The line will be coming down so grab the Red Raiders as early as possible. 

In the history of betting terms, Auburn is in absolutely the classic situation. Last week the Tigers laid waste of No.1 Georgia 40-17. This opened up all sorts of possibilities for Auburn playing undefeated Alabama at home next Saturday, having a chance to win the SEC West and SEC championship a week later in rematch with Georgia. Playing UL- Monroe at home as a 37-point chalk-laden favorite is the very definition of a - sandwich game. The Auburn players know that beating the Warhawks by 30 or 50 means nothing and though Monroe has not faced a defense close to this, they are still averaging 37 PPG. This sure looks like a 45-17 Auburn victory and non-cover. 

The Central Michigan offense is averaging 44 PPG in their last three games and their winning by 22 PPG. Kent State has no way to compete because they don’t have a passing game. The Golden Flashes will play hard early, but they don’t have the offense to keep up any sort of pace. Take CMU with Kent State  2-11 ATS after playing three straight conference games. 

Colorado State had second half leads against the Air Force and Wyoming in past two games and could not hold either and lost outright. That makes the Rams 0-4 ATS in past four games and their season is on a definite slide. Juxtapose that scenario against Boise State. After dreadful home loss to Virginia, the Broncos have gotten settled on offense and defense and have definitive identities. Boise State on the season is holding opponents almost 70 yards below season average and during five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) has held opposing teams to a mere 12.6 PPG. On offense, the passing game has finally gotten back in gear and the Broncos are nicely positioned to run roughshod over Colorado State and wins by 14 or more. 

Wyoming still has chance to win division and is on 5-1 (6-0 ATS) roll, despite how the season started. If you subtract the 49 points Oregon scored on the Cowboys, Wyoming has given up only 14.7 PPG against everyone else.  For QB Josh Allen personally, it has not been the season he expected, however, pass protection and the lack of difference-makers at receiver have made matters worse, yet his team has been winning. The Falcons are off humbling 21-0 shutdown to Army, with only 95 rushing yards and the Black Knights never needed to pass once. Because these team meet annually, Wyoming knows how to defense Air Force option and has held them 83 yards a game below their season average the last three games. With the Cowboys 9-3 ATS at Air Force in previous visits, it's Wyoming outright!

Arizona is a 21-point home favorite against Oregon State and the Beavers will be less than eager to take on Wildcats running game that could go the distance on any play. The Wildcats were expected to finish last in the Pac-12 South, but quarterback Khalil Tate literally changed the fortunes of the entire Arizona program and they are already bowl eligible. Arizona comes in 4th in country in rushing yards per game at 327 and Oregon State has allowed 184 or more rushing yards in seven of nine tries. Watch for Tate to break the Beavers will and the 'Cats win by 30.

The Big 12 has been a rugged all season for the top tier teams. Based on remaining schedule, this is the last monster matchup with winner having clear advantage to win conference and the loser hoping for rematch. At quarterback, Baker Mayfield has decisive edge over Kenny Hill in a big game, as time and again he has not let Oklahoma falter when they could have. In terms of who has better team, TCU gets the edge dramatically on defense, ranked 6th nationally and the Sooners at 86th. In breaking this conflict down, if game turns into about the stars, Oklahoma wins, but if it turns into a team game, the Horned Frogs will prevail. I will back TCU who is 14-5-1 ATS as road underdogs and make sure to find a +7 like I did. 

After a month of barely completing 50 percent of pass attempts and having 611 passing yards, Michigan State quarterback Brian Lewerke has gotten so hot he could light a charcoal grill with throwing hand with 845 passing yards the last two weeks. With only Maryland and Rutgers ahead, a Spartans victory at Columbus sets them up to play for Big Ten title. As far as Ohio State, they have surrendered 93 points in last two outings and posted a -6 turnover ratio and even if you include Penn State miracle comeback (which they could have easily lost), the Buckeyes are only 7-3 SU in last 10 contests. With Sparty catching +17.5 point, really like the fact Michigan State is 12-3 ATS after gaining 450+ yards in consecutive games and makes this a touchdown game. 

This ACC contest is a yawner unless you have cash on line and we do tonight. North Carolina's season is over at 1-8, they have used four different QB's in the last few games and are averaging 16.5 PPG in conference play. Also, the Tar Heels are averaging THREE turnovers a game in past five outings. Pittsburgh is not great, but at 4-5they survived murderous early schedule and another step down in class should get the running game going and help them reach a 3-0 SU and ATS stretch. Look for the Pitt ground game to take over in the second half and check out this Awesome system: Play On home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) in conference games, off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog. (28-7 ATS 80%, L20Y)

Posted this pick on Monday and now see it is up to =7 on Akron which even better for you. 

The Akron offense isn’t anything special, but it’s terrific at keeping the chains moving. Miami doesn’t have a pass rush and it’s not nearly disruptive enough in key moments. While the RedHawks are able to control the clock, they’re not going to control the game. In addition, the Zips are  6-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. 

In the Pac-12, this confrontation has two similar teams that are rather average. Colorado tends to rely more on its offense to win games while Arizona State is at its best when the defensive shines and offense plays at their pace. Because the Buffaloes do not rush the passer well, this helps the Sun Devils. While revenge is not the end all to be all, ASU was blasted at Boulder 40-10 last year and coming off stinging defeat to USC, expect ASU to be ready to play and move to 9-1 and 7-2 ATS against the Buffs and remain perfect at Tempe, where they are 4-0 SU and ATS. 

Michigan is just 3-5 ATS and has not impressed many all season long with mediocre quarterback play. That is less of an issue against Minnesota, who ranks 116th in passing offense. We know how good the Wolverines defense has been all season, ranked fourth in total defense and more than capable of grounding the Golden Gophers. Minnesota's run defense is pretty good (36th nationally), but if you have seen them play, stronger teams can overpower them or those with speed on the edges can out run them on the corners. Michigan's running game can do both and wins this by 20 or more. 

With South Florida losing, Central Florida is the lone team outside the Power 5 with shot at Super Six bowl. Coach Scott Frost is already the hottest coaching candidate for bigger job and he will have his hands full with rugged assignment at SMU. The Knights are the top scoring team in FBS at 51 PPG, nonetheless, the Mustangs come in at No.9 at 41.5 PPG and have big play offense. UFC does have large edge defensively, however, underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like SMU, who have won four out of their last five games, with a win percentage of 60% to 80%,  playing opponent with a winning record, are a sterling 30-5 ATS.

In college football, everything can change because of one game, ask TCU after losing at Iowa State. Not only does that upset loss at Ames have football bettors viewing them differently, they face a treacherous Texas crew this week and are at Oklahoma the week after. The Horned Frogs will have to be much sharper for Longhorns, who have more ability than Iowa State, if not lacking in overall execution. Can QB Kenny Hill bounce back after reverting to past tendencies? TCU is on 1-9 ATS downer as home favorite. Since Maryland misstep, Texas is 7-0 ATS and in every game. The Horns defense continues to play well and if they can eliminate coverage busts, they might well win this Big 12 battle.  

In the first college football Playoff Poll, Georgia was ranked No.1 and there is no reason to think South Carolina will not get blown out by the Bulldogs and the sportsbooks odds reflect this. But it's November and in college football this where the unforeseen occurs, like episodes of American Horror stories. The Gamecocks are not outstanding on offense or defense, yet they have made plays to be 6-2 and are 4-0 ATS away. The Bulldogs by any measurable are one of the best two teams in the country and just flushed Florida and is at Auburn next, making one to wonder if they have A-game this week. Georgia has no real weaknesses, but if South Carolina can contain their running game, forcing QB Jake Fromm to be pocket passer, the visitor can cover. Also keep in mind the Dawgs are only 12-25 ATS at home after three or more consecutive straight up wins.

Marshall turnovers and inability to make plays against FIU dug them a 35-7 hole at home from which they could not recover. The Thundering Herd have to regroup quickly against the lone undefeated team in C-USA, Florida Atlantic. Marshall's run defense had been strong all year, but they allowed a season-high 224 yards to FIU and next have to face the best rushing team in the conference in the Owls, who is also No.8 in country. However, I see the Thundering Herd in a bounce back spot after a brutal loss and this is a three-point game either way. 

I completely understand why some believe Arizona can win this game. The Wildcats are one the surprise teams in the Pac-12 and they have moved up to the No.3 rushing team in country at better than 342 yards a contest. No question this will be terrific atmosphere in Tucson, but here is why I do not mind giving the two points on Washington State. The Cougars defense is not getting enough credit, as they are holding opponents an astonishing 88 yards below their season average and to just 18.4 PPG. Arizona will rack up some yards, but finding the end zone will be another matter. Two angles I cannot ignore, Wazzu is 9-0 ATS versus teams averaging 230 or more rushing yards a game and the Wildcats are 0-8 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in two straight contests.  

Though not an meaningful game nationally, Mississippi State and Texas A&M realize it's importance. Each club is 5-2 and looking ahead, both are positioned to win three of their last four games. That would mean a 9-3 record and likely a New Year's Day bowl assignment and chance for a 10-win campaign. Mississippi State is a smallish road favorite and it's only two losses were on the road to Georgia and Auburn. Texas A&M was mildly competitive with Alabama and probably in quiet moments  still cannot figure how they lost to UCLA. The home team have won the last four meetings (3-1 ATS) and this Aggies group has shown mental toughness where they usually collapse and find a W. 

Wanted this number to come off -7 and it has and  the Owls fit two in-season systems this week that are 73% and 77% in FAU's favor. 

I am of the opinion Houston will be shaken by home loss to Memphis, after building 24-7 lead in the third quarter and giving up five touchdowns in less than 20 minutes to the Tigers in 43-38 loss. In watching the game, Houston players were completely gassed by the fourth quarter and had nothing left. Granted, it was on short week and they have extra rest for this Saturday showdown. Nonetheless, South Florida style is even more demoralizing, because they can run the ball down your throat, on the edges and just when you think you have something figured out, they pass down the field. The Bulls defense is dramatically better than Memphis and they will attack the Cougars offense which has made 14 turnovers in their last five games. With that the case let's call for the Bulls to trample Houston by 20.

It has not been an easy campaign for Pittsburgh, with a front-loaded arduous schedule and having quarterback and secondary problems to deal with. Last week the Panthers put it all together and upset Duke on the road with season-best running yardage and stellar play from defensive line. After going in 4-0 SU and ATS binge, Virginia was a tire fire last Saturday and was blown out by Boston College at home 41-10. Though the Cavaliers are probably not as good or bad as they have been playing, coach Bronco Mendenhall's teams are 10-4-1 ATS off a SU setback as a favorite.  Virginia in a small upset. 

The so-called “hook” in the Oklahoma State-West Virginia contest is probably driving most recreational bettors away, as they can’t fathom taking the Cowboys as better than a TD favorite at what is supposed to be one of the toughest environments in the Big 12. However, when I dug into the stats deeper this week, I was quite alarmed to see that OSU is actually the TOP TEAM IN THE COUTNRY in a stat that I judge to be a good indicator of team strength, Effective Yards Per Play Differential. In other words, HC Mike Gundy’s team is beating opponents on every scrimmage play better than any other team. Only the loss to a pretty good TCU team has most experts forgetting about them. West Virginia meanwhile is 54th in the country in that stat, just a bit better than your average college team.  The Mountaineers problem for Saturday is that they’ve allowed 30+ points in four straight games, a fact that OSU figures to exploit, as evidenced by this system: Play Against Any good team outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games. The system is 34-8 over the last 5 seasons for  81%. Don’t fear this game just because it’s in Morgantown. The Cowboys are the better team.

While it is only the third Saturday in October, everyone agrees one of these teams will be eliminated from playoff contention no matter how they conclude season, barring unforeseen circumstances. USC is 6-1, but by any measure they have been mildly disappointing as 1-6 ATS mark shows. QB Sam Darnold has saved the Trojans, who continue to make mistakes at alarming rate, with 16 turnovers and never having less than two in any contest.  With Notre Dame forcing more than two turnovers a contest and having the No. 5 rush offense, which has quick scoring capabilities like a passing game, this will be test for USC. Coach Brian Kelly is in need of a marquee win and the Fighting Irish deliver with a 10-point win. 

The college football odds have LSU as a touchdown favorite at The Grove in Mississippi. Since losing to Troy, the Tigers have shown grit and toughness in defeating Florida and Auburn. But both games were decided by 1 and 4 points and when you look into the history of this series, LSU is just 6-14 ATS of late. Ole Miss is 3-3 and each loss was on road and two were to Alabama and Auburn. Shea Patterson is a talented quarterback and the Rebels still have big receivers who can catch the ball on slant routes or on jump balls down the field. Just not convinced the Bengal Tigers are that strong and believe this is a field goal game either way. 

After starting 3-0 under new coach P.J. Fleck, Minnesota has been exposed and has lost first three Big Ten tilts. The largest issue has been defense, where their defensive linemen cannot get off blocks and they lack speed in the back seven and allow too many big plays. Fortunately for the Golden Gophers, Illinois presents no such challenge and speed-wise on their entire roster. In the battle for the worse team in the conference, the Illini showed no fight and lost at home to Rutgers 35-24 last Saturday. Good step down in class for Minnesota and they take on Illinois club that is 4-13 ATS after one or more straight up losses the last three seasons. 

Indiana is playing hard in every game, but has not learned how to take contests that could go either way in second half and turn them into Hoosiers wins. The Hoosiers gave their all in OT loss to Michigan team that was beatable and will face a Michigan State squad that has regained its swagger and is 5-1 (4-2 ATS). Indiana has to protect the ball better, because -9 turnover margin will doom them again, since they are 1-10 and 3-8 ATS at East Lansing since 1992. The Spartans hung on for victory at Minnesota and are growing in confidence weekly  and are No.5 in total defense, which will not help the Hoosiers. While not expecting a blowout, look for Sparty to take recent home record in the second half of the season to 7-0 ATS against Indiana. 

After a poor season, Marshall is back and road teams like them after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, are 30-7 ATS.

This is Georgia State's fourth straight road game and while they won and covered the last two, UL-Monroe has won and covered three straight. Different in game, the Warhawks average better the 37 PPG, Georgia State is bit over 16 PPG. Lay it! 

Not exactly sure what happened to Michigan against Michigan State besides the weather, but watching you never got the feeling they were totally engaged. I look for the Wolverines to be much more focused off a loss and have a different level of urgency to their game. No question coach Jim Harbaugh and the offensive coaches will challenge the offensive line to block better and more cohesively and expect the running backs to hit the hole with more purpose. Quarterback John O'Korn is "the guy" for the Wolverines for the time being and he will get a healthy dose of protecting the ball better. Michigan's defense is strong enough to stymie a good Indiana offense. Though Michigan's role as favorite seems a little low, not going to argue with it and have MEECHIGAN by 13.

You could have asked a thousand people making college football picks back in August what Florida State's record would going into game with Duke and not one would have said 1-3. Nobody expected the Seminoles to lose their starting quarterback and it was presumed the offensive line would play better, neither of those ended up being true. Florida State started to find a running game last week against Miami and look for that to continue against what has been actually a good Blue Devils defense that does have problems getting off the field from time to time. The Noles just have more talent, a very good defense and are 7-0 and 6-1 ATS in Durham. 

Let's start with the key fundamental aspect between these SEC squads. South Carolina has six total turnovers halfway through their season, Tennessee has more that in their past three outings (8). The Gamecocks are skilled in taking the ball away with 13 generated turnovers, with multiple miscues forced in four of the six contests. Though South Carolina's offense can be choppy to watch, it is better than Tennessee, who has trouble sustaining drives and is only the field offensively for just a smidge over 26 minutes a game. The Vols will come out fired up off a bye and 41-0 shellacking to Georgia, but once the game settles in, the Gamecocks will not self-destruct and Tennessee will find a way to beat itself. 

Though this AAC affair will not attract a lot of people's attention, a good chunk of those betting football have been following it. Temple has slid from -12.5 to -9.5. I see value in the Owls, as road underdogs like Connecticut  that are outscored by opponents by 10 or more points a game, after two straight tilts where 70 total points or more were scored, are 5-24 ATS.

Benchmark battle for both Pac-12 clubs this week. Stanford has rebounded from two setbacks and if they want have shot at winning at North Division, they cannot afford any more losses before facing both Washington schools. The Cardinal defense is not the same as year's prior as ranking 96th nationally against the run proves. Utah is 4-0 SU and ATS and might not have dynamic QB Tyler Huntley for either after he was hurt at Arizona. Senior backup Troy Williams has plenty of starts for the Utes. Check this out, Utah is solid 36-19 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 31-14 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest. The Utes outright!

While the Spartans being 9-0 ATS against Michigan of late might scares some people, Michigan State is 17-2 as underdogs against teams off a win and cover. 

The LSU situation is already unraveling with Ed Orgeron as head coach, just in its first year. The Tigers have played three straight poor games and when inspecting the numbers closer, there strength's under Les Miles have all but disappeared. LSU beat opposing teams with big offensive lines and overpowered the other team's O-Line with at least NFL-sized defensive linemen. Now the Tigers do not have the drive blockers and are changing offensive philosophy and they are undersized in the defensive front and are getting pushed around. Not having a dependable quarterback only exacerbates the situation. Florida is not a lot better than LSU, but what coach Jim McElwain has done is develop players that win in the four quarter of close contests and they are now down to -2.5 point favorites. Let's add in the hatred for LSU from Florida athletic department from last season and you have motivated Gators who win by at least 10 points. 

Navy is 11-3 and 10-4 ATS against the Air Force and Falcons are 0-6 ATS in this game if coming off a loss. 

Last week Minnesota came into game against Maryland 3-0, with a stout defense and punishing ground attack, already shaped in the image of new head coach P.J. Fleck. In the first drive it was clear that the Golden Gophers did not have the foot speed to keep up with more athletic Terrapins squad and with an injured offense line, Minnesota ended up being upset 31-24 as 13-point home favorites. Now the Gophers travel to Purdue and face a different offense that spreads them out by passing and the Boilermakers program has been energized by their first-year coach Jeff Brohm. With Minnesota 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in previous visits to West Lafayette, take the Purdue.

This rivalry battle was rescheduled because of hurricane and carries a great deal of importance for the Miami. Duke is much improved and Miami handled them, especially in the second half with superior speed on both sides of the ball. Coach Mark Richt inherited quality talent and has organized it a better fashion, while adding his new recruits. While the Miami defense will allow some yards, they are only permitting 16.3 PPG and are 11-3 ATS as favorites under Richt.  With or without Deondre Francois, Florida State was overrated, particularly on offense, where the offense live does not get a push and the Seminoles average 3.1 YPC. Good game but make it the Canes' by 7.

Last week, beleaguered Mississippi was flattened by Alabama 66-3. The Rebels return to the state of Alabama this Saturday and head to the plains to take on Auburn and this could get ugly also. Ole Miss could not move the ball against the Crimson Tide's sixth-ranked defense, thus it stands to reason they will have similar problems against the Tigers, who are rated 9th in total defense. After scuffling early, the Auburn offense has found rhythm with over 470 yards in two SEC games, averaging 50 PPG. This is why for college football picks I have no problem handing out the 22.5 points to Mississippi.  

The Red Wolves are 1-2 SU and ATS and enter SBC play among the favorites, having won or shared a piece of the title in four of the past six years. Arkansas State has big and physical offensive line (by SBC standards) and talented quarterback in Justice Hansen, who directs the No. 9 passing offense in the country at 351.7 yards a game. Hansen hurt his back against SMU, but is now expected to play. Though he might not be 100 percent and the Red Wolves running game has not been imposing  121 YPG, Georgia Southern has surrendered 5.9 YPC and is 124th nationally, which should allow Arkansas State to run or pass depending on the flow of the game. I fully expect Georgia Southern to be fired up for conference opener. However, the talent and skill are not there to hold up over four quarters and Arkansas State is 12-4 ATS against league foes and is 10-2 ATS versus rushing defenses allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards per carry. 

Texas A&M opened as -8 point favorite, flew to -10 and have come back past that point at -7. There is a fair amount of sharp bettors that do not trust Kevin Sumlin as coach of the Aggies and I cannot disagree since he is 12-23 ATS at Kyle Field. Nevertheless, Will Muschamp has not come across as America's next Nick Saban and South Carolina offense has been brutal the last couple games. I see too much offensive speed with the Aggies and they will end winning 34-23, covering the number. 

I know, Charlotte at Florida International sounds like somebody betting games under a witness protection program, but I have my reasons. If you discard Charlotte scoring 31 points against some college named North Carolina A&T (and still losing), they have tallied seven total points in three other encounters. We are not talking about a who's who in college football either, as two of those losses were to Eastern Michigan (24-7) and Georgia State (28-0). If you pulled out your preseason college football magazines, neither of those teams are expected to win the MAC or Sun Belt conferences. Like the 49ers, FIU is not going to win Conference USA, however, I have quality system that is 35-10 ATS that says the Panthers cover the spread and off upset of Rice, they are 5-0 ATS off SU dog win and facing team off consecutive SU losses. 

Last week I cashed a winner on UL-Monroe in a fantastic situation and I am coming right back on them tonight. I am the first to admit the Warhawks might be a little flat to start off after OT victory against main rival Louisiana U., nonetheless, there is nothing to indicate that Coastal Carolina in its first year of FBS football can crawl inside of a spread of +7.5. Just last week the Chanticleers were a +3.5 point home underdog to a very good Western Illinois squad and they were waxed 52-10. Monroe has too much offense and pulls away in the second half. 

With all the turmoil of the season to date, the Seminoles their season is on the brink and while Wake Forest is 4-0, the best team they have faced is Boston College. Florida State by 14 or more. 

Having seen Georgia and Tennessee multiple times, this outcome appears lopsided. The game being in Knoxville will help the Vols, still where does the offense come from against Bulldogs defense that is surrendering 11.5 PPG to opponents averaging better 28 a game? Georgia also has a running game that can pound away or take one to the house from 50 yards and Tennessee is conceding 5.1 yards a carry. One would surmise the Vols might need additional volunteers to slow the Dawgs down. I will polish off this choice with this system: Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, off three or more consecutive Under's, allowing 17 or less points per game, are sensational 22-3 ATS the last decade. Georgia by 13 or more.

The Orange have good offensive club and N.C. State is off big upset of Florida State and I expect them to be a little flat. Besides the Wolfpack are known for up and down performances. 

The University of Minnesota saved itself after clumsy firing of Tracy Claeys by hiring P.J. Fleck. This highly driven coach completely changed Western Michigan's fortunes, taking them from 1-11 to 13-0 and Cotton Bowl bid in four years, where they lost to Wisconsin. Fleck is a stickler for details and he already has the Golden Gophers playing strong run defense (59 YPG) and running the ball controlling the clock. Maryland was ultra impressive in upset of Texas in opener, but has lost regular starting quarterback Tyrell Pigrome and last week his backup Kasim Hill in ugly 38-10 home loss to Central Florida. With a third-string quarterback going against stingy run defense, Minnesota get the call against the Terrapins and wins by 20 or more.

In looking at Texas' season, this becomes a very important contest to show gains and in this case it means winning. The Longhorns played USC on even terms, but their program does not allow for moral victories and a loss at Iowa State would make new coach Tom Herman's first quarter of the season that much more uncomfortable. With Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State up next, this is 'must win' for Texas. The Cyclones are averaging better than 41 PPG and have the nation's No.18 passing attack at 311.7 YPG, which Texas has been vulnerable to. The key for Iowa State is reaching 28 points, since if they do they are 10-2 ATS the last three seasons. I say they do and might win outright. 

Hard to imagine Stanford could be any more disappointing in losing last two games to USC and San Diego State. Now back home, you know coach David Shaw will be back to the basics and stress fundamentals in preparation for UCLA. The Bruins defense is so bad, UCLA fans are wearing Kesha t-shirts for the song "Praying" as a sign of support and disgust. Quarterback Josen Rosen is doing everything he can to help the team, but no player should have the brunt of responsibility to think they have to lead team to touchdown on every drive or they might lose. I will make the call on the Cardinal, who is 17-4 ATS after losing two of three against the spread and 10-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. 

Western Kentucky is nowhere close to the offensive team they were under previous coaches, averaging a mere 20 PPG and they are 1-9 ATS after two straight Under's. If you like that, what about Ball State who is remarkable 32-13 ATS as road underdog since 2007! 

I have been betting the Battle of the Bayou for years, based on this one fact, the visitor is 17-2 ATS. Works for me! 

South Carolina's inability to run the ball and stop the run at home against Kentucky, pinned them with their first loss of the season. That poor showing coupled with losing one of their best wide-outs in Deebo Samuel for the season, has dropped the Gamecocks from -11 to -7.5 against Louisiana Tech. I think this adds tremendous value to South Carolina, as they still have superior size, speed and talent compared to the Bulldogs and at least to this point, this is not usual Louisiana Tech high-scoring team we are used to with 44 total points in past two outings versus FBS competition. South Carolina is 17-5 ATS when hosting FBS foes and is 10-2 ATS at home against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse. The Gamecocks by 14 or more. Grab early before line goes back up. 

For more than one Florida-based team, the three-week layoff is like starting the season completely over and for Florida State, that is especially true having a completely different quarterback in backup turned starter James Blackmon. Returning to action and playing in conference is not a treat, especially against N.C. State, who has a solid defensive front and quarterback in Ryan Finley. The Wolfpack have won last two games and is 8-1 ATS off two or more victories. The Florida State defense is probably going to have to carry the Seminoles until we learn about offense and they are capable of doing so. Florida State is 10-2 when N.C. State visits Tallahassee, but is just 5-7 ATS.