We all know Purdue is a team with some boys.  Well that doesn't play into Vermont's hands as they like to dominant the paint.  Well Vermont won't dominant the paint here and will quite frankly really struggle to get any momentum going on offense.  Purdue is a quality team who won the Big Ten and and they arent getting enough respect.  

Vermont 4-17 ATS L21 games vs a team with a winning record  

I dont like the way Maryland is playing coming into this game.  It is really showing me that these freshman have now hit a wall.  Terps have covered just 1 game in their last 6.  

Maryland just 1-6 ATS L7 tournament games as a short favorite 

Xavier is 21-5-1 ATS L27 tournament games 

Florida is just to athletic and long for this ETSU team.  I'm not worried about Florida following an early exit to Vanderbilt as Vandy simply has their number this year sweeping them in 3 games.  This is another game played in Orlando and the Gators will pack this place.  

Gators 4-1 ATS L5 games on neutral court as a favorite

This is a game going under the radar in the NIT tonight.  BYU has a big advantage now that UT Arlington has lost their best player.  Also this team was considered the sexy sleeper pick before they were upset in their conference tournament.  I see them still having a hang over from that and aren't interested at all tonight.  

I really think this is a huge mismatch here with a Big 10 team taking on the likes of a horizon league school without their best player who was a NBA draft prospect.  Illinois beat the likes of Iowa Michigan St and Northwestern on their home court this year.  Illinois should have no problem blowing this team out.  

Illinois is 13-2-2 ATS their last 17 games when favored between 7-12.5 points.  

This is a team of destiny right now and I believe they get the job done.  We all know what took place prior to them playing.  That incident has brought them together and they are playing their basketball right now.  I also think Michigan matches up very well with the Badgers.  They beat them by 6 @ home and only lost by 4 on the road.  Michigan wins the Big Ten with a great story. 

No surprise ND won in blowout fashion over a struggling Virginia team right now.  The Irish shot the lights out of the ball, but that wont happen here against a very good defensive team in Florida St.  Each team split meetings during the season the most impressive thing was that Florida St still beat them despite ND knocking down 15 threes in a game.  That tells me who the better team is.  

Irish just 1-4 ATS L5 neutral court games as a dog  (that cover was last night)

The Razorbacks have already throttled these guy by 18.  There is no reason to not expect the same outcome again.  Arkansas is a sneaky team as they have won 6 of 7 with their only loss being @ Florida.  

Arkansas 5-0 ATS L5 games as a favorite 

Duke is now playing their 3rd game in 3 days and with jump shooting teams that means their legs are going to be shot.  They will shoot themselves right out of the gym here.  Also Duke was very lucky yesterday beating Louisville as the Cardinals couldn't put them away from the free throw line.  

Duke 2-7 ATS L9 games as an underdog

I'm not reading into anything here with TCU knocking off Kansas because they were with out their best player.  Iowa St now has a huge home court advantage as most are aware they call this place Hilton south.  Iowa St wins this easily.  

TCU 3-10 ATS L13 games vs team with a winning record. 

Like the Gamecocks here to get revenge from one of their worst performances of the season.  Bama beat them on their home court but SC shot a miserable 26% from the field and 16% from three and still only lost by 4 as Bama shot 42% from the field.  SC is by far the better team here.  

South Carolina is 5-1-1 ATS L7 neutral court games 

Here is another team that enter the conference tournament red hot.  They have covered 6 straight and have won 5 of those games with their only loss being @ Kentucky as they were up double digits for most of that game.  

Texas AM is just 1-7 ATS L8 games as an underdog of .5-6.5

Vandy is 15-3 ATS L18 games vs a team with a SU winning record 

Don't like Xavier at all as their only 2 wins in the last 8 games are against the worst team in Depaul.  Butler has no problem last time out @ Xavier favored by 3 and winning by 9.  They will run them out of the gym here today.  

Xavier 0-6 ATS L6 games vs a team with a winning record. 

Really no surprise Indiana is favored and they will probably take some money as well.  This young Iowa team is one of the hottest in the country right now.  They weren't even in the conversation 2 weeks ago and now have a great chance.  They are playing with a ton of confidence and I look for them to get the job done tonight.  Indiana is 8-20-1 ATS L29 games as a favorite on a neutral court.  

I dont trust this Cal team at all.  They struggled to put away the worst power 5 basketball school in the country.  Sure people will say Cal wants revenge, but when you lose by 30 to a team to me they are clearly dominate.  This Cal team has only one win against a top 50 team.  

Utah is 8-1 ATS L9 games as a favorite between .5-6.5

after watching Duke yesterday they didnt impress me at all.  Louisville is a terrible match up for them after they will press all game and that wont go well with a Duke team that has a short bench to begin with.  

Duke is just 1-7 ATS L8 games as an underdog of .5-6.5

Louisville is 5-1 ATS L6 games as a favorite of .5-6.5

85% SYSTEM PLAY

I think it is probably safe to say the Missouri is the worst power 5 conference team in the country. This team has quit a long time ago and with their coach just recently stepping down I see no reason for them to respond here to a team that just beat them.  Auburn is a a respectable 18-13 on the season with a 7-11 conference record.  I look for Auburn to take full control here 

Auburn is 4-0 ATS L4 games as a favorite.  Missouri is 5-17-4 ATS L26 games as an underdog between .5-6.5

Good spot here to back Virginia Tech who still has a sour taste in their mouth after losing their final home game to Wake.  Wake is favored here simply because of that, but since they played a game yesterday and actually played terrible defense against a very bad BC team I really like Tech here.  

Wake just 1-5 ATS L6 games after scoring 90 or more in previous game 

I like TCU here in this game vs this young Sooner team.  Odds makers have over adjusted because OU just beat them in their final home game.  Don't let that fool you TCU was favored earlier this season by 11.  TCU a veteran group with a great coach bounces back

I'm not surprised the line here has moved toward Pitt.  They come into this game losing 4 straight but 3 of those were on the road and one was @ Georgia Tech.  Tech has been a money making machine all season @ home.  On the road well they do what young teams normally do and lose.  Only 2 road wins all year! Pitt has the upper class men edge here and I see them getting revenge tonight 

I know this is a public play but the Hawkeyes are rolling right now.  They are coming off two road wins and while most will think this is a let down  spot you have to remember this is also senior day for their leader and leading scorer in the big ten Peter Jok.  Iowa is also trying to make the NCAA Tournament now I believe they will respond 

Ole Miss is a quality team @ home looking for revenge here tonight on senior night.  SC is just 2-8 ATS l10 games.  SC is 1-7 ATS L8 games as a favorite.  0-4 ATS L4 games following a SU win.  I want no part of South Carolina here tonight 

I think Duke is in a for a beat down tonight against UNC.  We all know about the rivalry, but UNC has the conference title on the line here.  They will get their revenge after shooting so poorly @ Duke, but still managed to stay in the game.  Duke 1-7 ATS L8 games as a road underdog of .5-6.5

With Dayton coming off a big win over rival VCU this is a great spot to back GW here who is playing very well.  GW has won 4 straight and 5 of its last 6.  They are a very solid 12-3 on their home court as well.  GW is 5-0 ATS L5 home games vs team with a winning record. 

Kansas without a doubt has been one of the luckiest teams in the country this year pulling out all the close games.  Well it stops here tonight against a red hot Cowboys team.  Jayhawks just 5-12 ATS L17 games following a SU win.  Oklahoma St 10-2 ATS L12 games overall.  Home team is 6-1 ATS l7 meetings 

Pretty plain and simple here.  The Missouri Tigers are flat out terrible.  This just was just destroyed on their home court in their final game showing us that they have quit on the season.  This game gets ugly in a hurry.  Tigers 4-1 ATS L5 games as a home favorite. 

I think most will be expecting a big bounce back here from Cincy but I'm not buying for a team that struggles to score.  The Bearcats haven't been a bet on team at all of late only covering 2 times in their last 8 games.  Houston will want revenge from earlier this season as they were just 3-19 from three during that game.  Cincy is 0-5 ATS L5 games vs a team with a winning record. 

If any game is a must win on tonight's card it is this one.  Xavier has lost 5 straight and while 3 of those were on the road and the two home games were against the two best teams in the league with Nova and Butler, they need this one.  I don't trust Marquette on the road as they are just 2-5 ATS their L7 games.  Xavieris 5-2 ATS L7 home games vs team with a losing road record. 

The perception here is that you don't want to go against Izzo in March and now that they have won 4 of their last 5 they have found something.  Well all four came @ home and remember last year when Sparty lost to #15 seed Mid Tenn St.  Illinois is a team on fire right now.  Sparty just 1-5 ATS L6 games as a road underdog.  Illnois 5-2 ATS L7 games as a home favorite from .5-6.5 

The Yellow Jackets are a lot better here than they are getting credit for.  They are 14-4 @ home this season with some impressive wins.  I think the wheels having fallen off for Pitt here who jsut got destroyed by UNC in their final home game.  This Pitt team isn't going anywhere and have no motivation compared to a Tech team who is firmly on the bubble.  GT is 9-2 ATS L11 home games vs team with winning record. Tech is 5-1 ATS L6 games following a SU loss

This is a good spot to back Penn St here who has been a very good home team this year. They are catching Ohio St at the right time as the Buckeyes are coming off a huge win over Wisconsin and have a senior night showdown with rival Indiana.  They will be over looking this game.  Ohio St 1-5 ATS L6 games following an ATS win.  Penn St 12-3-1 ATS L16 home games as a favorite of .5-6.5 

This may seem like a lot of points here for Duke to be laying with a big game against arch rival UNC on deck.  However the Blue Devils really need this one coming off back to back losses both on the road.  This is senior night for them so the effort will be there.  Also FSU is terrible on the road with a 1-5-1 ATS L7 road games.  Duke is 16-6-1 ATS L25 home games as a favorite between .5-6.5

Baylor quite frankly is the desperate team here tonight.  This is senior night for them and they want to end their season on a high note.  Sure they have had recent struggles but to quality teams.  I look for them to take advantage of West Virginia here who will be missing their leading scorer.  The home team has owned this series as of late going 4-1 ATS L5

Virginia no doubt played their worst game of the season against UNC just a couple weeks back going 2-20 from the three point line.  You know that game has haunted them ever since they most definitely want revenge here.  UNC just 1-4 ATS L5 games vs team with a winning record.  Virginia 5-1 ATS L6 home games as an underdog from .5-6.5 

Illinois coming off a big home upset win over in state rival Northwestern.  Nebraska is a solid team @ home that isn't getting enough respec.  Beat Purdue and lost by 1 tonWisconsin recently.  Illinois 1-5 ATS last 6 games following a straight up win. Nebraska is 15-6 ATS L21 home games as favorite between .5-6.5

This line is huge for a reason.  Cuse coming off a banked in three winner over Duke and are due for a major letdown.  Cuse has been awful on road 2-8 ATS L10 Games.  Cuse has also struggled a lot @ Louisville 1-8-1 ATS L10 meetings @ Louisville 

While I know George Mason has the revenge angle they weren't even competitive in their first meeting losing by 19.  GW is starting to play better winning and covering 3 of their last 4 games.  GW is 11-3 @ home.  Big key is that George Mason 0-6 ATS revenging a SU loss as a home favorite 

I want no part of Auburn here as they are getting credit for winning the first game @ Arkansas.  In that game they shot 61% from the field and made 15 threes.  They have recently hit the wall with their only win in the last 4 being LSU.  Arkansas is trying to make the dance and cant slip up here.  Auburn is 1-6 ATS L7 games being a home underdog.  Arkansas is 6-1 ATS L7 games as a favorite from .5 to 6.5

This line is a really odd one to me.  I know UCLA has the revenge angle, but this Arizona team is for real to me.  They had no problem the first meeting and that is because UCLA still refuses to play any defense.  It's very hard to trust teams on the road that dont defend a lick.  Arizona is a perfect 15-0 @ home this season well.  UCLA just 1-4 ATS L5 road games. 

I really don't want any part of Northwestern right now as it seems like they are feeling the pressure again of making the tournament.  Sure I realize Indiana has dropped 5 straight but 4 of the 5 were by 6 or less and the 6 point loss came in OT.  This is senior day for them tomorrow night so the effort will be there and not to mention revenge on their minds as well.  Indiana 8-2 ATS L10 after allowing 90 points in previous game.  

Iowa St is on fire right now and I'm gonna ride it out.  They have won and covered 4 straight and will make it 5 here today.  They want revenge in the worst way from a heart breaking loss @ Baylor earlier.  Iowa St is 4-0 ATS L4 games vs team with winning record.  4-1 ATS L5 home games as a favorite.  Baylor has really struggled in Ames 2-9 ATS L11 games 

I think odds makers have adjusted to much on both sides following recent game.  Cuse knocked off Duke but it was 2 banked in threes late that helped.  Miami had a big win @ Virginia, but Virginia is a bad team right now losing 5 of 6.  Miam is 1-8 ATS L9 following an ATS win.  

Really high on Kentucky tomorrow to get their revenge on the Gators.  This line will only go up from here.  Florida is missing their center for the rematch.  Florida has been awful as an underdog going 1-10 ATS their L11 games, 3-13 ATS L16 road games as a underdog, 0-8 ATS L8 games being an underdog up to 7 points.   

Arizona is 4-1 their last 5 games SU, but just 1-4 ATS.  That will change here tonight as USC has proven their last two games they dont belong with the big dogs in this league.  They lost by double digits to both Oregon and UCLA.  USC just 1-8 ATS L9 games vs team with a win % greater than 60.  

No way we are going against Michigan St here.  Izzo knows that you want to start playing your best basketball right now.  Michigan St I expect a blow out tonight as they are 7-0 ATS L7 home games as a favorite.  Nebraska has struggled as a short road favorite 1-4 ATS L5 games.  Michigan St 7-3 ATS L10 games following an ATS loss 

Creighton shouldn't be laying this many points here to this Providence team.  The Friars want big time revenge and have a great chance to do that with Watson out.  In the first go around the Bluejays had their stud.  Providence is 8-2 ATS L10 games.  They are 7-0 ATS L7 games vs a team with a winning % above 60.  Friars are 5-1 ATS L6 meetings here as well 

Duke is now being a little over valued here.  Their recent road win over Virginia doesn't look near as impressive to me now as Virginia has hit a hall.  Cuse is a desperate team right now playing for their tournament lives.  Cuse is 5-1 ATS L6 home games as an underdog.  Duke is 1-4 ATS L5 games as a short road favorite.  Cuse is 7-1 ATS L8 home games