At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (954) versus the San Diego Padres (953) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Chris Paddack. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (81-69) has won thirteen of their last sixteen games with their 5-1 win over the Padres in the opening game of this series. San Diego (68-82) has lost five games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has won 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have won 19 of their last 24 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Brewers have won 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Woodruff who is coming off the disabled list after dealing with an oblique injury. The right-hander has an 11-3 record this season with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in twenty starts. Woodruff had been enjoying a breakout season this year with increased velocity and spin on his fastball which saw him strikeout 28.3% of the batters he faced. Woodruff has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.24 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in eleven starts. Milwaukee has won 12 of their last 13 home games with Woodruff on the hill — and they have won 10 straight home games with Woodruff pitching with the Total set at 8.5 to 10. Woodruff will be on a pitch count tonight with his first start off the DL — he will be followed up by Gio Gonzalez who is 2-2 with a 4.01 ERA in sixteen starts this year. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.25 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .209 in seven starts as opposed to his 1.44 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average when on the road. San Diego has lost 8 of their last 10 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Padres have also lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Paddack who will be making his last start of the season before San Diego shuts him down for the year. The rookie right-hander has a 9-7 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in twenty-five starts this season. He comes off a great start where he did not allow an earned run in 6 innings of work at home against the Cubs — but the Padres have then lost 5 of their last 6 games with Paddack looking to follow up a Quality Start. Despite that nice effort, Paddack has shown signs of tiring out this summer. After posting a sparkling 2.84 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP in the first half of the regular season, he saw those numbers decline to a 4.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP since the All-Star break. He has already pitched 45 2/3 more innings than he did last year between Class-A and Double-A. Paddack has also been more effective at home in spacious Petco Park where he enjoys a 3.06 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .188 — but in his fourteen starts on the road, those numbers increase to a 3.65 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226. San Diego has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Paddack on the mound.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has won 8 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (954) versus the San Diego Padres (953) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Chris Paddack. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the St. Louis Cardinals (904) plus the points versus the Washington Nationals (903) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Stephen Strasburg. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (83-66) has lost their last two games after their 7-6 loss to Milwaukee. Washington (82-66) snapped a two-game losing streak yesterday with a 7-0 win at home over Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: St. Louis stranded only three runners yesterday while scoring six runs — and they have won 28 of their last 40 games after not leaving more than three runners on base in their last game. They have also bounced back to win 9 of their last 11 games after a loss. The Cardinals have also won 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. St. Louis stays at home where they have won 23 of their last 32 games — and they have also won 11 of their last 16 home games as the money-line underdog. They give the ball to Hudson who is 15-7 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in twenty-nine starts (30 appearances). The ground ball pitcher has been outstanding as of late with a 5-1 record over his last six starts along with a 1.41 ERA spanning those 38 1/3 innings where he has surrendered a mere 16 base hits. Hudson was saddled with a 1.56 WHIP in the first half of the season but he has a 1.25 WHIP after the All-Star break along with a 0.84 WHIP over those last six starts. Hudson has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.92 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in fifteen starts as compared to his 3.93 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .270 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Cardinals have won 5 straight home games with Hudson on the mound. And while he comes off a strong start where he allowed only two earned runs on the road at Coors Field against the Rockies in 6 innings of work — and St. Louis has won 11 of their last 14 games with Hudson following up a Quality Start. He faces a Nationals team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. This team has also lost 4 straight opening games to a new season. They counter with Strasburg who is 17-6 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in thirty starts. But while the right-hander has a 3.33 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .202 at home in thirteen starts, those numbers rise to a 3.61 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 on the road. He faces a Cardinals team that has won 20 of their last 27  home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Nationals have also lost 5 of their last 6 games against St. Louis.

FINAL TAKE: I considered taking the Cardinals as the underdog but I remain concerned a bit in going against Strasburg who has a 2.25 ERA over his last three starts. But Washington’s bullpen has an ERA of 5.87 this season which helps to place the Nationals into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has 57% effective over the last five seasons. Teams with a bullpen ERA of 5.50 or higher using a starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.50 or lower over his last three starts have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 74 of these last 131 situations where these conditions applied. With the price of the +1.5 Run-Line below my -150 price threshold, let's invest in the insurance of getting +1.5 Runs with this very live dog. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the St. Louis Cardinals (904) plus the points versus the Washington Nationals (903) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he fortunately passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).

At 5:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (929) and the Detroit Tigers (930) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Spencer Turnbull. THE SITUATION: Detroit (43-100) has won three of their last five games after their 12-11 win over the Yankees in the opening game of this series on Tuesday. New York (95-51) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with that loss. Yesterday’s game was postponed due to weather so this pitching matchup represents the second game of their afternoon double-header.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is now a decisive 51-25-3 in the Yankees’ last 79 games on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Additionally, New York has played 14 of their last 18 road games Over the Total when priced at least at -175 as the favorite. The Bronx Bombers have also played 35 of their last 56 games Over the Total with the number set at 10 or higher. They give the ball to Sabathia who comes off the disabled list to make this start — he is 5-8 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in twenty starts this year. The veteran left-hander has struggled in the second-half of the season with a 7.77 ERA in his six starts since the All-Star break. He has been particularly ineffective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 6.75 mark along with a 1.62 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .312. New York has played 4 straight games Over the Total with Sabathia pitching on the road. He will be followed up by Domingo German with manager Aaron Boone looking to limit the innings of both pitchers going into the postseason. The right-hander has a 17-4 record with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season — and he has struggled on the road with a 5.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .257 as opposed to his 2.35 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and .197 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. They face a hot-hitting Tigers team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .282 batting average along with a .320 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .720 over that span (which all compare favorably to their 3.7/.240/291/.680 splits for the entire season). Detroit has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home. And in their last 7 second games of a double-header, the Tigers have played 5 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Turnbull who is 3-14 with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.92 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .281 in fourteen starts. Turnbull also has a 5.07 ERA in his twelve starts during the day with a 1.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296. The Over is 3-0-2 in Detroit’s last 5 games with Turnbull facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .264 batting average along with a .330 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .907.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams entering the opening game of this afternoon’s doubleheader. With bullpens strained a bit today (especially after last night’s scoring fest), except a high scoring second game in this double-header. 25* MLB American League Getaway Game Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (929) and the Detroit Tigers (930) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Spencer Turnbull. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (979) and the Seattle Mariners (980) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Marco Gonzales. THE SITUATION: Seattle (59-86) snapped a six-game losing streak last night with their 4-3 win over the Reds. Cincinnati (67-78) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 5 of the last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. And while Cincinnati has not scored more than four runs in each of their last three games, they have then played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs in at least three straight games — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight contests. The Reds have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is a decisive 34-16-1 in their last 51 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Gray who is 10-6 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The veteran right-hander has allowed only 12 combined earned runs over his last twelve starts. Gray has only allowed one earned run over his last two starts — and Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Gray pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in two straight starts. Gray has also been more effective on the road where he has a 2.58 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .189 in thirteen starts as opposed to his 2.90 ERA with a .212 opponent’s batting average at home. The Reds have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when his team is pitching as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 range. He should thrive against this slumping Mariners lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .172 batting average, .241 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .564 over that span. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mariners are hitting just .161 over their last five games — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not hitting better than .200 over their last five games. Furthermore, Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 4 games in Interleague play, the Mariners have played all 4 games Under the Total. They counter with Gonzales who is 14-11 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in thirty starts. The left-hander has been a bit better at home where he owns a 4.32 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in fourteen starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Gonzales on the hill. He faces a Reds team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .234 batting average in those contests. Cincinnati has played 20 of their last 28 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing at Seattle. Expect another lower scoring game. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (979) and the Seattle Mariners (980) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Marco Gonzales. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (909) and the San Francisco Giants (910) listing both starting pitchers Mitch Keller and Johnny Cueto. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (63-81) snapped a two-game losing streak yesterday with their 6-4 victory over the Giants in the opening game of this series. They scored four runs in the top of the 9th inning to pull out that win. San Francisco (69-75) has no lost two straight games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have seen the Over go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after a win — and the Over is a decisive 41-18-4 in their last 63 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Pittsburgh has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Keller who is 1-3 with an 8.18 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in eight starts this season. The 23-year old right-hander has shuttled back and forth between the majors and minors this season but the Pirates want to use these September games as an opportunity to audition for next year. He has done his best pitching at home in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park where he owns a 4.76 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .262 — but those numbers skyrocket in his four starts on the road where he has an 11.81 ERA with a 2.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .423. The Over is 3-0-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 4 games on the road with Keller on the hill. He faces a Giants team that has seen the Over go 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 5-2-1 in San Francisco’s last 8 games after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Giants are slumping with their bats as of late as they have not scored more than those four runs last night in three straight games. San Francisco is also hitting just .193 over their last five games — but they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after hitting no better than .200 in their last five games. The Giants have also played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight contests. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in San Francisco’s last 5 games at home — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Cueto who is making his season debut after recovering from Tommy John surgery which has kept him on the shelf for thirteen months. The 33-year old right-hander was 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in nine starts last year before suffering his elbow injury. The sabermetrics were not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.47 and 4.52 from his peripheral numbers. Cueto was not as effective at home either where he had a 5.19 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .333 in five starts as compared to his 1.33 ERA, 0.56 WHIP and .125 opponent’s batting average on the road. Those disparate home/road splits were consistent with his numbers two years ago with a deeper sample size as he had a 4.60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .288 opponent’s batting average at home in twelve starts as compared to his 4.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Over is 19-5-2 in the Giants’ last 26 home games with Cueto on the hill. The Pirates have played 5 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 14-6-2 in their last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 9-3-3 in the last 15 games between these two teams played in San Francisco’s AT&T Park. Expect a higher-scoring game tonight. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (909) and the San Francisco Giants (910) listing both starting pitchers Mitch Keller and Johnny Cueto. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Chris Paddack. THE SITUATION: Arizona (72-67) has won the first two games of this series — as well as eight of their last nine games — with their 2-1 victory over the Padres last night. San Diego (64-74) has lost five of their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona remains alive in the National League playoff picture as they are just 3 1/2 games behind the Cubs for the second NL playoff wildcard spot. The Diamondbacks should build off their momentum as they have won 6 of their last 7 games after a win. They also have won 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Arizona has now won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they are 11-6-1 in their last 18 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Gallen who is 2-4 with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twelve starts this season. Since being traded from Miami, the 24-year old right-hander has a 2.88 ERA in his five starts in a Diamondbacks uniform. Gallen has been more effective when pitching at home this year where he owns a 1.30 WHIP along with a .200 opponent’s batting average in six starts. His teams have won 4 of his last 5 starts including the last three when they were favored at a -110 or better price with him on the mound making the start. San Diego has lost 4 straight games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Padres have also lost 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Paddack who is 8-7 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in thirteen starts. The rookie left-hander had endured a 6.17 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break but found a glimpse of his first-half form in his last start at San Francisco where he allowed only one run in 7 innings of work. The sabermetrics have been calling for regression for months with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.99 and 4.22 respectively for Paddack moving forward. Paddack has not been as effective on the road either where he has a 3.93 ERA along with 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 as compared to his 3.40 ERA along with a sterling 0.88 WHIP and .192 opponent’s batting average in his ten starts in the spacious pitcher-friendly Petco Park. San Diego has lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road with Paddack on the mound. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks lineup that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .285 batting average along with a .336 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .856 over that span.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has won 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Chris Paddack. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oakland A’s (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Jaime Barria. THE SITUATION: Oakland (78-58) has lost two straight games after blowing two late leads against the Yankees over the weekend culminating in a 5-4 loss in New York on Sunday. Los Angeles (65-73) has lost three of their last four games — as well as eight of their last ten contests — with their 4-3 loss to Boston on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Oakland has won 22 of the last 28 games after a loss — and they have won 20 of their last 26 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The A’s have also won 8 of their last 10 games after an off day. Oakland returns home where they have won 19 of their last 26 games — and they have won a decisive 45 of their last 62 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Fiers who is 13-3 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The right-hander is unbeaten in his last twenty starts with his last loss occurring way back on May 1st. Fiers has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.92 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in fifteen starts. The A’s have won 26 of their last 32 home games with Fiers making the start. He faces a slumping Angels lineup that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .211 batting average along with a .315 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .675 over that span. Los Angeles has also lost 6 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Angels have lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after an off day. And while the LA bullpen did not allow an earned run on Sunday, they have then lost 15 of their last 21 games after a game where their bullpen did not surrender an earned run. They counter with Barria who is 4-7 with a 6.10 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 62 innings of work. The left-hander has been a disaster when pitching on the road where he has an 8.24 ERA with a 1.75 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .309 in 39 1/3 innings consisting of nine games which include seven starts. The Angels have lost 4 straight games on the road with Barria on the hill. He faces an A’s team that is scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .283 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .857. Oakland has won 22 of their last 30 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 25 of their last 34 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The A’s have won the last three games in this series after the last meeting at the end of June — and the Angels have lost 28 of their last 32 games when playing with at least double-revenge. Lastly, because Oakland has a slugging percentage of .447 this season, the Angels fall into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 51% effective over the last five seasons. LA is hitting .252 this season — and American League road underdogs with a batting average no better than .260 now facing an American League team with a slugging percentage of .440 or higher have then failed to ver the +1.5 Run-Line in 103 of the last 201 situations (priced in the -160 to +115 range). 25* MLB American League West Run-Line of the Year with the Oakland A’s (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Jaime Barria. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (963) and the San Francisco Giants (964) listing both starting pitchers Dinelson Lamet and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: San Diego (62-71) won the opening game of this series last night by a 5-3 score. San Francisco (65-68) has lost three straight games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Padres have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win. Additionally, the Under is 4-0-1 in San Diego’s last 5 games on the road against teams with a losing record. And in their last 25 road games in the season half of the season, the Padres have played 19 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Lamet who is 2-2 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has seen the velocity on his fastball approach 96 miles per hour which has helped him generate swinging strikes in 13.8% of his pitches. The sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.01 and 3.84 moving forward based off his deeper peripheral numbers. Over his last seven starts, Lamet has a 2-0 record with a 3.75 ERA. He also has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.12 ERA along with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in five starts. San Diego has played 3 of their last 4 road games Under the Total with Lamet pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. He faces a Giants team that scores only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .228 batting average along with a .289 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .651. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Giants’ last 10 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is also 13-5-1 in San Francisco’s last 19 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Furthermore, the Under is 13-3-2 in the Giants’ last 18 games after a loss. The Under is also 15-6-3 in San Fran’s last 24 home games against teams with a losing record. And in the Giants’ last 10 games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range, they have played 7 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Bumgarner who is 8-8 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The lefty has been on fire over his last twelve starts as he enjoys a 5-1 record with a 2.96 ERA over that span. The veteran also loves facing the Padres against which he sports a 3.47 ERA in 35 games (34 starts). Bumgarner has been much better at home where he owns a 2.95 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in fifteen starts. The Under is 5-1-2 in San Francisco’s last 8 home games with Bumgarner facing a team with a losing record. The Giants have also played 12 of their last 14 home games with Bumgarner facing a fellow NL West foe. The Padres are scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .185 batting average along with a .255 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .573.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego has played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (963) and the San Francisco Giants (964) listing both starting pitchers Dinelson Lamet and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (954) versus the New York Mets (953) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (69-63) has won five of their last eight games with their 12-3 victory over Pittsburgh on Wednesday. New York (67-66) has lost six straight games after their 4-1 loss to the Cubs yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has won a decisive 42 of their last 65 games after scoring at least eight runs in their last game. They also have won 9 of their last 10 games after scoring at least twelve runs in their last contest — and they have won 18 of their last 24 games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning record — and they have won 6 straight games against teams with a winning record overall. They give the ball to Nola who is 12-4 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The right-hander endured a slow start of the season but he has been in top form this summer. Since the start of July, Nola has a 6-2 record with a 2.61 ERA along with a 1.02 WHIP in 72 1/3 innings of work while striking out 74 batters. Nola comes off a solid start where he allowed three runs in 7 innings of work at Miami — and the Phillies have won 28 of their last 39 games with Nola looking to follow up a Quality Start. Nola has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.94 ERA along with a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in sixteen starts. Philadelphia has won 30 of their last 41 home games with Nola on the hill. The Phillies have also won 4 of their last 5 home games with Nola facing a team with a winning record. And in their last 9 games with Nola pitching with the Total set at 9 or 9.5, Philadelphia has won all 9 games. He should pitch another great game against this slumping Mets team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .220 batting average along with a .265 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .625 over that span. New York has lost 4 straight games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Mets have also lost 25 of their last 37 games after losing at least three in a row. Now after playing their last nine games at home, New York goes back on the road where they have lost 21 of their last 30 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, New York has lost 8 of their last 10 games after playing at least seven straight games at home. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Mets have lost all 6 games. They counter with Wheeler who is 9-7 with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in twenty-five stats. The right-hander is struggling as of late with a 6.75 ERA along with a 1.75 WHIP over his last three starts. Wheeler has not been as effective on the road either as he owns a 4.58 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in thirteen road starts. New York has lost 6 of their last 7 road games with Wheeler facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Phillies team that is scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .282 batting average, .373 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .887. Philadelphia has won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Nola facing a team the Mets. New York has lost their last 6 games in Philadelphia against the Phillies. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (954) versus the New York Mets (953) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (975) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (976) listing both starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Jacob Waguespack. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (80-54) has lost two straight games with their 3-1 loss to the Blue Jays in the opening game of this series. Toronto (54-80) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has bounced-back to win 17 of their last 25 games after a loss — and they have won 19 of their last 27 road games after a loss by two runs or less in their last contest. The Braves have also won 17 of their last 26 games after losing two in the row. Additionally, Atlanta has won 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Braves have still won 20 of their last 28 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have won 13 of their last 15 road games as a favorite priced in the -125 to -175 price range. They give the ball to Foltynewicz who is coming off his best start of the season where he allowed only one run in 7 innings of work where he allowed only two hits on the road against the Mets. For the season, the right-hander has a 4-5 record with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. Folty dealt with elbow soreness in the spring which impacted his velocity — and he endured a disastrous first half of the season that eventually prompted the Braves to send him down to the minors. In his four starts since being promoted back to the big leagues, Foltynewicz’s velocity has improved — and he has a 3.91 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 23 innings of work. Foltynewicz has been more effective on the road this year where he has a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in seven starts as opposed to his 1.50 WHIP and .278 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. Atlanta has won 4 straight road games with Foltynewicz on the hill. The Braves have also won 4 of their last 5 games with Foltynewicz looking to follow up a Quality Start. He should have success against this Blue Jays team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .223 batting average along with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .676. Toronto has lost 27 of their last 43 home games against teams with a right-handed starting pitcher. The Blue Jays have lost 40 of their last 58 games after a win — and they have lost 18 of their last 23 games after a victory by two runs or less. And while the Toronto bullpen pitched 7 innings last night, they have then lost 22 of their last 28 games after a game where their bullpen logged in at least 7 innings of work in their last game. The Blue Jays have still lost 16 of their last 21 games in Interleague play — and they have lost eight of their last ten games at home against teams from the National League. Toronto has also lost 39 of their last 58 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Waguespack who is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 52 innings of work. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.74 and 4.91 moving forward. Waguespack has not been as effective at home either where he owns a 5.21 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP as compared to his 2.73 ERA, 1.03 WHIP.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves have won 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (975) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (976) listing both starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Jacob Waguespack. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Zach Plesac. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (45-83) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 8-1 loss in Baltimore against the Orioles. Cleveland (74-54) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 2-0 loss in New York to the Mets.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. Additionally, Kansas City has lost 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last contest. The Royals have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an off day. And in their last 7 games on the road, Kansas City has played 5 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Junis who is 8-11 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander will be looking to complete at least 6 innings of work for the ninth straight start tonight. Junis has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.89 ERA along with a 1.33 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as opposed to his 5.53 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .275 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Royals have played 4 straight road games Under the Total with Junis pitching against teams with a winning record. Kansas City has also played 22 of their last 33 games with Junis pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces an Indians team that is scoring only 4.4 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .244 batting average along with a .310 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .728. Cleveland has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss by two runs or less — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Indians return home to Progressive Field for the first time since August 14th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. Cleveland has also played 19 of their last 25 home games Under the Total when favored in the -125 to -175 price range. They counter with Plesac who is 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he has a 3.25 ERA along with a 1.17 WHIP in eight starts as compared to his 3.86 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Plesac pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -110 to -150 range. He should have success facing this Royals team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .214 batting average along with a .264 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .550 during that span. Kansas City has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams since July 28th when the Royals upset the Indians at home by a 9-6 score despite being a +160 priced underdog. Cleveland has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Cleveland. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Zach Plesac. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Caleb Smith and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (75-62) has won three straight games with their 5-1 victory over the Marlins last night. Miami (45-79) has lost four straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a victory by at least four runs. The Over is also 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while Atlanta has not allowed more than three runs in three straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. Furthermore, while the Braves have played three straight games Over the Total, they have then played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. They give the ball to Teheran who is 7-8 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twenty-six starts this season. The sabermetrics are screaming that Teheran is high on the list of regression candidates for the rest of the season relative to those baseline numbers. Opposing hitters are generating a Hard-Hit Rate of 38.9% which is the highest in his career. The right-hander then adds to many walks to this volatile situation — he issues a base-on-balls to 11.0% of the batters he faces while averaging 4.29 walks per 9 innings of work. Unfortunately for Teheran, he is not much of a strikeout pitcher to help him get out of jams — he only strikes out 21.3% of the batters he faces. He also does not induce ground balls as only 39.8% of the batted balls he allows into play are grounders. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.13 and 5.27 moving forward based on his peripheral numbers like this. Teheran is not quite as effective a home either where he has a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in twelve starts as compared to his 1.26 WHIP and .221 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. Atlanta has played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with Teheran on the hill — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Teheran facing a team with a losing record. The Braves have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Teheran facing the Marlins. The Over is 10-3-2 in Miami’s last 15 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 10-3-2 in the Marlins’ last 15 games after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games after a loss to a divisional rival where they scored just one run. The Over is also 6-0-2 in Miami’s last 8 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Marlins have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the month of August — and the Over is 6-1-2 in Miami’s last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Smith who is 8-6 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in twenty starts. The lefty has a concerning Hard-Hit rate of 41.7% that is a bit more manageable when pitching in the spacious Marlins Park for his home games. Smith has a 3.32 ERA in ten starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 3.95 ERA when he is on the road. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.08 and 4.34 moving forward. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Smith pitching on five days of rest — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 5 games with Smith facing a team with a winning record. After throwing 106 pitches in his last game (which only got him through 5 innings), the Marlins will be keeping a short lease on their young hurler as they build for the future. Expect the Miami bullpen to get plenty of action in this game with their 5.15 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this season — and that group has a 12.34 ERA with a 2.49 WHIP in their last seven games. Atlanta hits left-handed pitching hard — they average 5.6 Runs-Per-Game with a .812 OPS against left-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Expect another higher-scoring game tonight. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Caleb Smith and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (970) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (969) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Reynaldo Lopez. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (76-49) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last night with their 6-4 loss to the White Sox in the opening game of this series. Chicago (56-68) had lost three of their last four games before pulling the upset last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Minnesota has bounced-back to win 36 of their last 52 games after a loss — and they have won 37 of their last 53 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Twins have won 42 of their last 59 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 38 of their last 56 games against fellow AL Central opponents. Minnesota has also still won 48 of their last 71 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Pineda who is 8-5 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in twenty-two starts this season. This will be his second start since a stint on the disabled list dealing with a triceps injury in his throwing arm. Pineda struggled earlier in the season as he returned to the mound after missing last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The right-hander has allowed more than three earned runs just once in his last fifteen starts. Over his last ten starts, Pineda has a 2.95 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in 58 innings of work where he struck out 56 batters. Pineda has also been more effective at home where he owns a 1.14 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .249 in eleven starts. The Twins have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Pineda on the hill. He should pitch well against this White Sox team that has lost 19 of their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago is scoring just 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .243 batting average along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .639 over that span. The White Sox have lost 5 of their last 6 games after a win — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also lost 7 of their last 11 games after pulling off an upset win over a divisional rival. They counter with Lopez who is 7-10 with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 5.57 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .294 in twelve starts. The White Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Lopez on the mound when priced in the +125 to +175 price range. Lopez is also 0-2 in his three career starts on the road in Minnesota’s Target Field with a 5.40 ERA. He faces a hot-hitting Twins’ team that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .302 batting average along with a .323 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .900 over that span. The Twins have won a decisive 42 of their last 57 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have lost 11 of their last 15 games against the Twins — and they have also lost 7 of their last 8 games in Minnesota. The Twins have been money-line favorites priced above the -150 threshold forty-one times this season. Only four times have then won the game by just one run — they have won 22 of those games by more than one run while losing outright in 15 of those games. I don’t love the losses (but I feel good with Pineda on the hill) — but I would much rather lower the price on Minnesota than risk the big money-line loss. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Month with the Minnesota Twins (970) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (969) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Reynaldo Lopez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oakland A’s (920) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (919) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Rogelio Armenteros. THE SITUATION: Oakland (70-52) has won three straight games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 3-2 score. Houston (78-45) has lost four straight games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Oakland pulled off the upset last night as a +170 priced underdog since they were battling Justin Verlander — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after an upset victory as a home underdog against a fellow AL West rival. The A’s have also won 10 of their last 12 third games of a series. Oakland has been dominant when playing at home in the Coliseum — they have won 71 of their last 105 games at home going back to last season. The A’s have also won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 9 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They give the ball to Bassitt who is 8-5 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.06 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in eight starts. Oakland has won 5 of their last 7 home games with Bassitt pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Bassitt also thrives in day games where he has a 2.81 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198. He faces an Astros team that has lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston has lost 8 of their last 11 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Astros have also lost 4 straight games on the road. And while this is Houston’s ninth game on their ten-game road trip — they have lost 11 of their last 17 road games when it is at least their sixth game in a row. Given a hamstring injury that has caused Gerrit Cole to miss a start, the Astros recalled Armenteros from Round Rock in Triple-A to make this start. The 25-year old right-hander has struggled in the minors where he has a 5-6 record along with a 5.06 ERA. He has pitched 14 innings in the majors this season where he sports a 1-0 record with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP — but regression is highly likely in this start on the road. The sabermetrics for those 14 innings of work project that Armenteros will likely see the runs he allows double moving forward given his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 3.80 and 4.07. Oakland has won 20 of their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The A’s won the opening game of this series on Thursday by a 7-6 score. Houston has lost 7 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge two straight losses by just one run to their opponent. While the A’s as a money-line underdog is intriguing, with the price of them getting the valuable +1.5 Run-Line being under my -150 threshold, I prefer investing in the Run-Line for this situation. 25* MLB FS1-TV Run-Line of the Year with the Oakland A’s (920) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (919) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Rogelio Armenteros. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (962) versus the Boston Red Sox (961) listing both starting pitchers Zach Plesac and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (70-47) has won five of their last six games as well — as nine of their last twelve contests — with their 7-3 victory in Minnesota against the Twins. Boston (62-57) has lost two straight games — as well as eleven of their last fourteen contests — after their 5-4 loss in 10 innings against the Angels yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland has quietly been one of the best teams in baseball since the All-Star break — they have won twenty-six of their last thirty-five games. The Indians return home where they have won 5 of their last 6 games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Cleveland has won 8 straight games at home with the Total set in the 10 to 10.5 range. They give the ball to Plesac who is 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander comes off a strong outing where he did not allow an earned run in 6 innings of work while striking out seven batters against the Rangers. Please has been his most effective at home where he owns a 2.97 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in seven starts. The Indians have won 5 straight home games with Plesac on the mound. Please has also thrived at night where he has a 2.10 ERA along with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in six starts. Cleveland has won 6 straight night games with Plesac making the start. While Plesac was not a highly touted prospect in the minor leagues, his increased velocity has helped him exceed expectations at the major league level. He should pitch another good game against this slumping Red Sox team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has lost 8 of their last 10 games after a loss — and they have lost 9 of their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, this reeling Red Sox team has lost 8 straight games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Boston has lost 5 straight games on the road — and they have lost 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Red Sox have also lost 21 of their last 31 games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Rodriguez who is 13-5 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twenty-four starts this season. The left-hander has done his best pitching at home in Fenway Park where he owns a 3.89 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in twelve starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.46 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in his twelve starts on the road. He faces an Indians team that has won 22 of their last 29 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and this includes them winning thirteen of their last sixteen games at home against left-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland has also won 35 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Indians have won 4 of their 5 encounters with the Red Sox — and they have also won 13 of their last 18 opportunities to host Boston in Progressive Field. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (962) versus the Boston Red Sox (961) listing both starting pitchers Zach Plesac and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (908) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (907) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Chris Archer. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (58-55) lost all five games on their recent road trip that ended on Wednesday with their 2-1 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels. Pittsburgh (48-66) has lost five straight games — as well as fifteen of their last seventeen contests — after their 8-3 loss to Milwaukee on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Pirates have been reeling since the All-Star Break as they have lost twenty-one of their last twenty-five games since the Midseason Classic. Pittsburgh has lost 17 of their last 22 games after a loss — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Pirates have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after an off day. Additionally, Pittsburgh has lost 19 of their last 24 games after losing at least three straight games — and they have lost 24 of their last 34 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. Now the Pirates go back on the road where they have lost 21 of their last 28 games — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has also lost 23  of their last 31 games against fellow NL Central opponents. They give the ball to Archer who is 3-8 with a 5.35 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander comes off a nice start where he allowed only one run at home against the Mets in 6 innings of work — but the Pirates have then lost 6 straight games with Archer looking to follow up a Quality Start. Archer pitches much better at home where he owns a 3.98 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and .237 opponent’s batting average — but those numbers skyrocket to a 7.14 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP and .254 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. The Pirates have lost 11 of their last 14 road games with Archer on the mound. He faces a Cardinals team that has won 16 of their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. St. Louis has bounce-back to win 25 of their last 38 games after a loss by just one run. The Cardinals have also won 30 of their last 44 games after losing at least three in a row. St. Louis is struggling on offense as they have not scored more than three runs in five straight games. But the Cardinals have then won 27 of their last 40 games after failing to score more than four runs in their last three games — and they have also won 42 of their last 59 home games after failing to score more than three runs in three straight contests. Returning home again will help — St. Louis has won 33 of their last 45 games when favored up to a -150 price. The Cardinals have also won 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, St. Louis has won 7 of their last 8 games against NL Central rivals — and they have won 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new series. They counter with Hudson who is 10-6 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in twenty-two starts (twenty-three games). The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.54 ERA. The Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Hudson on the hill. St. Louis has also won 8 straight games with Hudson facing a team with a losing record. He faces a slumping Pirates lineup that is hitting just .230 batting average over their last seven games along with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666 during that span. Pittsburgh has also lost 8 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has won 20 of their last 28 meetings between these two teams — and this includes them winning five straight against the Pirates after completing a three-game sweep in Pittsburgh last month. The Pirates have lost 11 of their last 13 games when attempting to avenge at least two straight losses at home to their opponent. 25* MLB National League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (908) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (907) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Chris Archer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (974) versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Jose Suarez. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (53-58) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last ten contests with their 7-4 victory over the Angels in the opening game of this series. Los Angeles (56-58) has lost five straight games as well as nine of their last eleven contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cincinnati may be five games under .500 but they are also just five games out of the second wild-card spot in the National League playoff race given their good play as of late. The Reds have won 5 of their last 6 games at home in the Great American Ballpark — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to DeSclafani who is 6-6 with a 4.07 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander had a 2.94 ERA over a nine-start span before giving up three runs in 5 innings of work in his last start against Atlanta. He still has not allowed more than three earned runs in six straight starts. DeSclafani has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.40 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .251 in ten starts as compared to his 4.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts on the road. Cincinnati has won 7 of their last 10 home games with DeSclafani pitching against a team with a losing record. The Reds have also won 5 of their last 7 games with DeSclafani facing an American League opponent. He faces a cold Angels lineup that struck out seventeen times last night. Los Angeles is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .204 batting average along with a .275 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .631 during that span. The Angels have also lost 4 straight road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, Los Angeles has lost 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Angels are just 27-32 on the road this season — and they have lost a decisive 46 of their last 66 road games against teams with a winning record a home. Furthermore, Los Angeles has lost 13 of their last 20 road games as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range — and they have lost 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 10 to 10.5. They counter with Suarez who is 2-2 with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in nine starts. The left-handed rookie is not developing at the major league level as he was saddled with a 5.75 ERA in his five starts last month. Suarez has not been as effective on the road either where he has a 5.70 ERA in five starts along with a 1.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .280. The Angels have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Suarez facing a team with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds have won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Year with the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (974) versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Jose Suarez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the New York Yankees (974) listing both starting pitchers David Price and J.A. Happ. New York (71-39) has won four straight games after taking Game Three of their AL East series with the Red Sox by a 6-4 score in the second game of their double-header yesterday. Boston (59-54) has now lost seven straight games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. Additionally, Boston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the Red Sox have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. Additionally, Boston has played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 29 of their last 43 road games Over the Total when priced as the favorite of at least -110. They give the ball to Price who is 7-4 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in twenty starts this season. The left-hander has allowed fewer runs at home in Fenway this year where he has a 3.46 ERA as opposed to his 4.13 ERA when he is pitching on the road. Price returns from paternity leave for this critical contest for the reeling Sox — but he has been part of the problem given his 6.52 ERA over his last four starts. And Yankee Stadium has been a house of horrors for Price — in his seven regular-season starts here since the start of the 2016 campaign, he has been saddled with an 8.59 ERA along with a 1.96 WHIP. Boston has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Price pitching in New York against the Yankees. He faces a hot-hitting Bronx Bombers team (despite being a M*A*S*H unit with their hitters) who are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .274 batting average along with a .349 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .836 during that span. New York has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a win by two runs or less — and they have also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning at least four in a row. The Yankees have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while the New York bullpen logged in 8 innings of work yesterday with them using reliever Chad Green as their opener, they have then played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total when their bullpen pitched at least 7 innings in their last game. Additionally, the Yankees have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Happ who is 8-6 with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander is also returning from paternity leave but he has struggled in Yankee Stadium as well where he has a 5.64 ERA along with a 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in twelve starts as compared to his 4.62 ERA along with a nice 1.19 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average on the road. New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Happ facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Red Sox team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 21-10-1 in their last 32 games against starting pitchers. And while Boston has played 29 of their last 43 games Over the Total with the number set at 10 or higher, the Yanks have played 21 of their last 33 games Over the Total with the total set at 10 or more.

FINAL TAKE: New York has won the last four games of this series going back all the way to the idyllic last few days in July last Sunday night. Boston has played 29 of their last 46 games Over the Total when playing with at least double-revenge — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when having lost at least four straight games against their opponent. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the New York Yankees (974) listing both starting pitchers David Price and J.A. Happ. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (915) and the Baltimore Orioles (916) listing both starting pitchers Thomas Pannone and Dylan Bundy. THE SITUATION: Toronto (45-67) has won five straight games after winning the first two games of this series with their 5-2 victory over the Orioles last night. Baltimore (36-73) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning two straight games on the road against an AL East rival. And while Toronto has not allowed more than three runs in five straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games. The Blue Jays stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home — and they have also played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 10 to 10.5 range. Additionally, Toronto has played 21 of their last 30 games on the road Over the Total in the month of August. They give the ball to Pannone who is 2-4 with a 5.98 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 49 2/3 innings of work this season. The left-hander is getting the first shot to take over in the Blue Jays rotation for the recently traded Marcus Stroman. But while Pannone has a 4.50 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 7.89 ERA along with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 21 2/3 innings of work on the road. Toronto has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Pannone on the hill. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games at night Over the Total with Pannone making the start. He faces an Orioles team that has played 5 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 5-1-2 in their last 8 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore has seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a loss — and they have played 30 of their last 44 games Over the Total after losing two in a row. The Over is also 8-3-2 in the Orioles’ last 13 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Over is 11-5-2 in Baltimore’s last 18 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 26 home games Over the Total against fellow AL East opponents. The Orioles have also played 38 of their last 62 games Over the Total when playing at night. They counter with Bundy who is 5-11 with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander is a gopher ball machine as he is allowing 2.1 Home Runs per 9 innings of work. Bundy has surrendered multiple home runs in seven of his starts this season. He also has fared worse at home in Camden Yards where he has a 6.16 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .299 in ten starts. Baltimore has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with Bundy facing a team with a losing record — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Bundy pitching with the Total set at 10 or higher. He faces a hot-hitting Blue Jays lineup that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .292 batting average along with a .366 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .943 during that span. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Orioles have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Bundy starting against the Blue Jays.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has now lost their last three meetings with the Blue Jays this season. The Orioles have played 24 of their last 36 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge on their mind. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (915) and the Baltimore Orioles (916) listing both starting pitchers Thomas Pannone and Dylan Bundy. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Indians (968) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (967) listing just starting pitcher Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (63-45) has lost three of their last four games with their 7-1 loss to Houston yesterday. Los Angeles (56-54) has lost five of their last seven games after their 9-1 loss to Detroit on Wednesday. The Angels had originally announced Dillon Peters as the starter but have decided to use Taylor Cole as the opener before turning to Peters who will still serve as the bulk pitcher tonight. I love the Indians behind Clevinger tonight — so don’t list the Angels opener since, one way or another, Peters is getting the bulk of the action (and I don’t want to risk a last-minute change back to Peters — but if you mist list the Angels pitcher, list Cole).

REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Cleveland has bounced-back to win 13 of their last 16 games after a loss — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Indians have also won 25 of their last 35 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. And in their last 14 games after allowing at least five runs, Cleveland has then won 10 of these games. The Indians stay at home at Progressive Field where they have still won 8 of their last 11 games. They have also won a decisive 16 of their last 20 games when priced as a favorite of at least -200. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 5-2 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in nine starts this season. The left-hander started the year strong in April before hitting disabled list for a few months — but he picked up right where he left off when returning to the  starting rotation as he was 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 31 innings of work. The sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.96 and 2.39 moving forward. Clevinger comes off a strong effort where he allowed only one earned run in 7 innings of work at Kansas City — and the Indians have won 5 of their last 7 games with Clevinger following up a Quality Start. Clevinger has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 0.78 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .152 in four starts as opposed to his 5.47 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average on the road. Cleveland has won 9 of their last 11 games at home with Clevinger on the hill — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games with him facing the Angels. They also have won 6 of their last 7 games with Clevinger priced as a favorite above -150. He faces an Angels team that is hitting only .220 over their last seven games with  a .299 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .719. Los Angeles has lost 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Angels have lost 12 of their last 15 games after loss by at least 8 runs. Los Angeles has also lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Angels go back on the road where they have lost 39 of their last 56 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Cole to open this game with his 1-1 record along with a 2.94 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 33 2/3 innings of work. Those numbers overrate the right-hander given the sabermetrics with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.32 and 3.97 moving forward. The bulk pitcher will be Peters who is 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work which includes two starts in four appearances since being called up from Triple-A last month. The sabermetrics scream regression as well with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.09 and 5.44 moving forward. Peters was 2-2 with a 7.16 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in 27 2/3 innings of work which includes five starts for Miami last year. The left-hander has pitched well at home where he has a 2.77 ERA along with a 1.23 WHIP and .271 opponent’s batting average in 13 innings but those numbers skyrocket to an 11.05 ERA along with a .2.25 WHIP and .333 opponent’s batting average on the road in 14 2/3 innings which includes three starts. In his career 34 2/3 innings of work on the road which includes seven starts, Peters has been saddled with an 8.83 ERA along with a 2.11 WHIP. His teams have lost 6 of their last 7 games with him pitching with the Total set at 8.5 to 10. He faces a hot-hitting Indians lineup that has scored 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .265 batting average along with a .327 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .802. Cleveland has won 21 of their last 27 games against left-handed starting pitchers which includes them winning fourteen of their last seventeen games at home against lefty starters. The Indians have also won 20 of their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends mentioned above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play, because the Indians have a bullpen WHIP of 1.23, the Angels fall into a historical “play-against” angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 62% effective since 1997. Los Angeles has a slugging percentage of .442 this season — and American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .440 or higher with a bullpen WHIP in the 1.35 to 1.45 range (Angels bullpen: 1.38 WHIP) have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -135 to +165 range) in 76 of these last 123 situations where these conditions applied. With Cleveland priced above my -150 price threshold, lower the investment cost by taking the Indians minus the -1.5 Run-Line. The Indians have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 15 of their last 24 games while losing six of those games outright and winning just three of those games by one run (and the +300 units from those three wins is overwhelmed by the six money-line losses priced at -210, -175, -250, -170, -170, -170). 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Year with the Cleveland Indians (968) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (967) listing just starting pitcher Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (960) versus the Chicago Cubs (959) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Kyle Hendricks. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (57-49) has won seven of their last nine games with their 2-1 victory over the Cubs. Chicago (56-50) has lost three of their last four contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis has won 5 of their last 6 games after a win — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. And while the Cardinals have only scored three runs in each of their last three games, they have then won 10 straight home games after failing to score more than three runs in three straight games. Furthermore, not only has St. Louis won 15 of their last 20 games in expected close contests where they were priced in the +/- 125 price range, they have also won 10 of their last 14 home games at Cardinals Busch Stadium when playing as the underdog. The Cardinals have also won 6 straight games against NL Central foes. They give the ball to Mikolas who is 7-10 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-one starts this season. The right-hander has been outstanding in his three starts since the All-Star break as he has posted a 2.57 ERA in those 21 innings while striking out 12 batters and only walking three. Mikolas has also been much more effective at home where he owns a 2.15 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in ten starts as compared to his 6.75 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .326 opponent’s batting average on the road. St. Louis has won 13 of their last 18 home games with Mikolas on the mound — and they have won 8 of their last 10 home games with Mikolas facing a team with a winning record. Mikolas loves to face Chicago against whom he has a 3-1 record along with a 1.88 ERA in eight games which includes six starts. He faces a cold Cubs lineup that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .196 batting average along with a .256 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .616 during that span. Chicago has lost 16 of their last 23 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubs have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Chicago has lost 19 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 20 road games against NL Central rivals, the Cubs have lost 15 of these games. They counter with Hendricks who is 7-8 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in nineteen starts. But the sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.39 and 4.34 moving forward. And the right-hander does his best pitching at home where he has a 1.89 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 — but those numbers rise to a 4.91 ERA along with a 1.42 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in his ten starts on the road. Chicago has lost 4 straight road games with Hendricks on the mound. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games based on the strength of an OPS of .807 over that span.

FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has won 13 of their last 16 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes them winning six of their last eight home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cardinals have also won their last 4 opportunities to host the Cubs. 25* MLB ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (960) versus the Chicago Cubs (959) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Kyle Hendricks. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (914) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (913) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Boston (59-48) won the first three games in their weekend series with the Yankees — outscoring the Bronx Bombers by a 38-13 score in those games — before losing Game Four Sunday night by a 9-6 score despite being a money-line favorite priced in the -170 range. Tampa Bay (60-48) has won three of their last four games after their 10-9 win in Toronto on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won 5 straight games after a loss — and they have 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss where they were a home favorite priced at least at -150. The Red Sox have also won 4 of their last 5 games after an off day — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Boston stays at home where they have won 5 of their last 6 games. They give then all to Price who is 7-4 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in nineteen starts. The left-hander is averaging 10.43 strikeouts per 9 innings while striking out 28% of the batters he has faced — both of those numbers are careers highs. Price comes off a solid effort where he allowed three earned runs in 6 innings of work at Tampa Bay — and the Red Sox have won a decisive 41 of their last 56 games with Price following up a Quality Start. Price has also been much more effective at home where he owns a 2.89 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in seven starts as compared to his 4.13 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average on the road. Boston has won 20 of their last 24 games at home with Price pitching when favored at a -110 or higher price. He faces a Rays team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has lost 5 of their last 7 games are allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Rays have also lost 5 of their last 7 games after an off day — and they have lost 15 of their last 19 games on the road after a day off. They stay on the road where they have lost 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also lost 10 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 10 or higher. Tampa Bay has also lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Morton who is 12-3 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.52 and 3.23 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. The right-hander has been a bit more effective at home where he owns a 0.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .191 as opposed to his 1.11 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts at home. The Rays have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Morton on the mound.

FINAL TAKE: Morton faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 8.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .337 batting average, .373 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.005 during that span. Look for Price to outpitch Morton at home in Fenway Park where he has been remarkably productive as of late. 25* MLB American League East Game of the Month with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (914) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (913) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (960) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (959) listing both starting pitchers Brad Keller and Thomas Pannone. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (40-67) snapped a three-game losing streak yesterday with their 9-6 win at Cleveland yesterday. Toronto (40-67) has lost three of their last four games with their 10-9 loss to Tampa Bay yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROYALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Kansas City has won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Royals return home where they have won 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 42 home games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range, Kansas City has won 26 of these contests. They give the ball to Keller who is 7-9 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in twenty-two starts this season. The 23-year-old right-hander has found his groove with a 1.33 ERA along with a 1.15 WHIP over his last four starts. Keller does not strike out many batters — but his nasty sinker induces ground balls in 52.8% of the batted balls he allows into play. Opposing hitters are also generating fly balls in just 25.7% of the batted balls he allows into play which is why he is giving up only 0.68 Home Runs per 9 innings of work. Keller has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.29 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in eight starts as compared to his 4.39 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average of .272 when on the road. The Royals have won 7 of their last 8 home games with Keller facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Blue Jays team that is hitting just .211 over their last seven games along with a .279 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .684 in those games. Toronto has lost 34 of their last 50 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Blue Jays have lost 13 of their last 16 games after a loss by just one run. Toronto has also lost a decisive 35 of their last 52 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 24 of their last 29 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. The Blue Jays bullpen has logged-in 13 1/3 innings of work over their last two games — and they have lost 37 of their last 45 games after their bullpen has pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. Toronto goes back on the road after a six-game homestand — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 games after playing at least their last four games at home. The Blue Jays have also lost 14 of their last 21 road games with the Total set at least at 10. They counter with Pannone who is 2-4 with a 6.39 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 43 2/3 innings of work this season. The left-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.77 ERA along with a 1.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in 15 2/3 innings of work. Toronto has lost 4 of their last 5 games when Pannone is making the start on the road on grass away from the artificial turf at the Rogers Centre. He faces a Royals team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Pannone has made three starts this season as an opener — he has pitched 2 2/3, 2 1/3 and 4 1/3 innings in those appearances so the Blue Jays’ bullpen will likely be asked to pitch at least half this game tonight. Toronto’s pen has a 4.40 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP over their last seven games.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City will be looking to avenge an 11-4 loss to the Blue Jays back on July 1st — and they have won 14 of their last 23 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. The Royals have also won 10 of their last 14 opportunities to host Toronto in Kauffman Stadium. 25* MLB American League Game of the Month with the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (960) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (959) listing both starting pitchers Brad Keller and Thomas Pannone. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Boston won the third game of this series on Saturday with their 9-5 victory. New York has lost the first three games of this series — and they have lost four of their last six contests.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have now surrendered 59 runs in their last seven games. The Over is now 23-8-1 in their last 30 games after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Bronx Bombers have seen the Over go 42-13-2 of their last 57 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 25-5-1 in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to German who is 12-2 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in sixteen starts (seventeen games) this season. The right-hander has done his best work at home in Yankee Stadium where he owns a 2.13 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 — but those numbers rise to a 5.66 mark on the road with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in nine starts. The Over is 8-2-1 in New York’s last 11 road games with German on the hill — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games with German facing a team with a winning record. He faces a red hot Red Sox lineup that has scored 7.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .315 batting average along with a .391 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .957 during that span. Boston has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers which includes them playing four of their last five games Over the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher at home in Fenway Park. The Red Sox have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitcher with a WHIP no higher than 1.15. Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Sale who is 5-9 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has not been as effective at home with the Green Monster in left-field where he has a 4.26 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in ten starts as compared to his 3.78 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 10-4-2 in Boston’s last 16 home games with Sale on the mound. Sales faces a New York team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .316 batting average along with a .371 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .937 over that span. The Yankees have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and the Over is also 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams when playing in Fenway Park. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (960) versus the Chicago Cubs (959) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (59-50) has won two straight games — as well as seven of their last ten contests — with their 3-2 comeback victory over the Cubs last night. Chicago (55-48) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has won 7 of their last 9 games after a one-run victory over a fellow NL Central rival. This victory came on the heels of their 5-4 victory over the Reds on Thursday — and not only have then won 21 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games by no more than two runs but they have also won 8 straight games after winning their last two games by just one run. The Brewers have also won 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. And while Milwaukee managed only four hits last night, they have then won 13 of their last 16 games at home after having no more than four hits in their last game. The Brewers will be playing their fifth straight game at home tonight — and they have won 20 of their last 27 games after playing their last four games at home. Milwaukee has also won 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning record — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Anderson who is 5-2 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in fifteen starts (eighteen games). The right-hander has not lost since June 21st — and he has not surrendered more than two runs in six straight starts. Anderson has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.81 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in nine starts (twelve games). The Brewers have won 26 of their last 43 home games with Anderson pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He faces a Cubs team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .223 batting average along with a .266 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .650 during that span. Chicago has lost 14 of their last 20 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. And while their bullpen blew a save last night by allowing two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning, they have then lost 11 of their last 12 games after blowing a save in their last game. The Cubs have lost 19 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have lost 13 of their last 17 road games against NL Central foes. Chicago has also lost 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 road games as an underdog. They counter with Lester who is 9-6 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in nineteen starts. The left-hander has struggled as of late having allowed at least four runs in six of his last twelve starts. Lester once had an ERA of 1.16 but his slide has corresponded with his sabermetrics with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.15 and 4.11 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. Lester has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.95 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP — but he sees those numbers rise to a 5.09 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP in eight starts on the road. Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Lester on the hill — and they have lost 11 of their last 16 road games with Lester pitching as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and they have won 8 of their last 10 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Brewers have also won 7 of their last 9 opportunities to host the Cubs in Miller Park. 25* MLB National League Central Game of the Year with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (960) versus the Chicago Cubs (959) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (927) and the Seattle Mariners (928) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Norris and Yusei Kikuchi. THE SITUATION: Seattle (43-63) has won two straight games after winning the opening game of this series by a 10-2 score. Detroit (30-68) has lost their last three games as well as nine of their last ten contests.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 24-9-3 in the Mariners’ last 36 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. Furthermore, the Over is 33-16-2 in Seattle’s last 51 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 27-13-3 in the Mariners’ last 43 games at home — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Kikuchi who is 4-7 with a 5.37 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has seen his numbers decline significantly in the grind of his first MLB season after coming over from Japan — and he has not been able to adapt to the book that teams have quickly written about his stuff. Over his last ten starts, Kikuchi is 1-6 with a 7.85 ERA. He also sees his ERA rise to a 5.79 mark in his ten starts at home. The Over is 8-1-1 in Seattle’s last 10 home games with Kikuchi on the hill — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Kikuchi facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Tigers team that loves to face left-handed pitching. Detroit scores only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game this season with a .232 batting average along with a .286 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .667 — but those hitting splits rise to a .259 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .774  against left-handed starting pitchers which translates into them scoring a healthy 5.4 Runs-Per-Game against those lefties. The Over is 12-4-1 in the Tigers’ last 17 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, the Tigers have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And while Detroit has only scored four combined runs in their last three games, they have then played 31 of their last 46 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in three straight games. The Over is also 10-2-1 in the Tigers’ last 13 games against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 8-1-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Norris who is 2-8 with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in seventeen starts (twenty games). The left-hander comes off a rain-shortened start where he allowed only one run at home against Toronto — but Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when Norris is following up a start where he allowed only one earned run. Norris has a 4.62 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and .280 opponent’s batting average at home — yet those numbers rise significantly to a 5.28 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in his ten starts (twelve games) on the road. The Tigers have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Norris on the hill.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle is swinging hot bats right now as they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .277 with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .791 over that span. The Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams when playing in Safeco Park. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (927) and the Seattle Mariners (928) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Norris and Yusei Kikuchi. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (960) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (959) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Chicago (45-54) begins this series having lost two straight games after their 2-0 loss to Miami yesterday. Minnesota (61-40) has lost two straight games — as well as seven of their last ten contests — with their 10-7 loss at home to the New York Yankees on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Twins have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Minnesota has been playing a number of high scoring games as of late — they have scored and allowed at least six runs in each of their last four games. The Twins have then lost 8 of their last 11 games after scoring and allowing at least six runs in their last three games — and they have lost 23 of their last 29 games after seeing at least 12 combined runs scored in four straight contests. Now after completing a disappointing nine-game homestand, Minnesota goes back on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after playing at least five straight games at home. They give the ball to Berrios who is 8-5 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twenty starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.38 and 4.46 moving forward based on his peripheral numbers. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home in Target Field where he enjoys a 2.10 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in nine starts. But in his eleven starts on the road, Berrios owns a 3.72 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Berrios had a 3.03 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP at home but a 4.85 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road. The Twins have lost 25 of their last 37 road games with Berrios making the start. Berrios has also been not quite as successful under the lights given his 3.03 ERA and 1.22 WHIP instigated by opposing hitters owning a .259 batting average against him as opposed to his .210 opposing batting average during day games. Berrios may be also starting to tire in the grind of being in the regular rotation — he has not pitched more than 5 2/3 innings in three straight starts. He also comes off 113 pitches in his last effort at home against the A’s which was his highest pitch count of the season. Tellingly, Berrios carried a 4.15 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP and .240 opponent’s batting average in the second half of the season after boasting a 3.68 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in the first half. Minnesota has also lost 17 of their last 20 games on the road with Berrios pitching in the second half of the season. Chicago has bounced-back to won 16 of their last 26 games after losing three of the last four games. The White Sox have just a .221 On-Base Percentage over their last three games — but they have won 7 of their last 8 games after enduring a stretch where they did not have an On-Base Percentage higher than .260. The White Sox stay at home where they have won a decisive 15 of their last 20 home games against AL Central rivals. Chicago has also won 19 of their last 30 games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Giolito who is 11-4 with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in nineteen starts. After losing his previous two starts, the right-hander showed better command with his fastball in his last effort at Tampa Bay where he allowed only one earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work. The White Sox have won 7 of their last 8 games with Giolito following up a Quality Start. Giolito owns an exceptional 3.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his breakout season this year. A shortened arm action in his delivery has helped him throw more strikes this season. Chicago has also won 6 of their last 7 games at home with Giolito on the hill.

FINAL TAKE: The White Sox bullpen has been on fire as of late — they have not allowed an earned run in their last five games spanning 11 1/3 innings of work. That helps place Chicago into a historical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 70% effective since 1997. Giolito averages 7.1 strikeouts per start — and home underdogs using a starting pitcher who averages at least 5.0 strikeouts per start while having a bullpen that has an ERA of 1.50 or lower in their last five games have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 59 of these last 84 situations (when priced in the +215 to -130 money-line range). 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Chicago White Sox (960) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (959) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (917) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (918) listing both starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Marcus Stroman. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (58-41) had won eight of their last nine games before losing the second game of this series last night in 10 innings by a 2-1 score against the Blue Jays. Toronto (38-64) snapped a two-game losing streak.

REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland has bounced-back to win 11 of their last 13 games after a loss — and they have won 25 of their last 32 games after a defeat by just one run. The Indians have also won 21 of their last 27 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have still won 7 of their last 8 games as road warriors. They give the ball to Bieber who is 9-3 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in twenty starts (twenty-one games). The sabermetrics indicate that he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.32 and 3.14 moving forward. Bieber is enjoying a breakout season because he is relying on his outstanding command to throw more pitches outside the strike zone. Bieber threw 48% of his pitches in the strike zone last year — and that mark has lowered to just 38.4% of pitches in the zone this season. Yet Bieber strike rate in 67.3% of his pitches last year has only lowered to a 65.2% mark this year as he has successfully coaxed opposing hitters to reach for these pitches outside the zone. Bieber is walking only 5.6% of the batters he has faced — and he owns an outstanding K%-BB% of 25.5%. The right-hander has been at his best on the road where he owns a 3.19 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .189 in nine starts (ten games) as compared to his 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average at home. The Indians have won 12 of their last 15 road games with Bieber on the hill — and they have also won 7 of their last 8 road games with Bieber facing a team with a losing record. He faces a slumping Blue Jays lineup that is hitting only .220 over their last seven games with a .292 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .674 over that span. Toronto has lost 13 of their last 18 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 37 of their last 55 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Blue Jays have also lost 8 of their last 10 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, Toronto has lost 30 of their last 42 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Jays’ bullpen has logged in 9 1/3 innings of work in their last two games, they have then lost a decisive 35 of their last 43 games when their bullpen pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. They counter with Stroman who is 6-10 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.41 and 4.07 moving forward. Stroman is not a strikeout pitcher — he has struck out only 19.1% of the batters he has faced this season. Instead, the right-hander induces ground balls in 57.1% of the batted balls he allows into play. That is problematic with this Blue Jays’ infield which is at the bottom rung in fielding metrics — and playing on astroturf at home does not help matters. Perhaps that is why Stroman sees his ERA rise to a 3.47 ERA along with a 1.30 WHIP in eleven starts at home as compared to his 2.60 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road — and perhaps this is also why playoff contenders are eager to trade for him. Toronto has lost 16 of their last 24 home games at night with Stroman on the mound. He faces an Indians lineup that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .281 batting average along with a .342 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .798. Cleveland has also won 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Jays have lost 5 of their last 7 games with Stroman pitching against the Indians. Cleveland has still won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams — and they have won 44 of the last 69 meetings between these two teams when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* MLB American League Road Warrior of the Year with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (917) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (918) listing both starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Marcus Stroman. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Mets (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (955) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Chris Paddack. THE SITUATION: New York (45-54) has lost three of their last four games after suffering a 12-inning 3-2 loss in San Francisco on Sunday. San Diego (47-52) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 5-1 win in Chicago against the Cubs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Padres have lost 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least four runs — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. San Diego has also lost 5 straight opening games t a new series. They also have lost 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. The Padres stay on the road where they have lost 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. San Diego has also lost 5 of their last 6 road games when priced as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This is also a team that has lost a decisive 31 of their last 41 games in the month of July. They give the ball to Paddack who is 6-4 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.77 and 3.89 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. Paddack’s great numbers this season are due in large measure to his pitching in the spacious Petco Park for his home games where he enjoys a 2.36 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .166. But in his nine starts on the road, the right-hander sees his numbers rise to a 3.00 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in nine starts. There are worrisome signs — most notably Paddack’s hard-hit rate of 44.6% for the balls he is allowing into play. That helps explain why he has allowed thirteen gopher balls while allowing 1.30 home runs per 9 innings of work. The Mets are averaging 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has won 8 of their last 13 games after a game where neither team scored more than three runs. The Mets return home where they have under-the-radar won 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Vargas who is 4-5 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP this season in sixteen games (seventeen starts). The left-hander has been tough at home where he owns a 3.15 ERA along with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in six starts (seven games) as opposed to his 5.03 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average of .246 on the road. New York has won 4 straight home games with Vargas facing a team with a losing record. And while Vargas comes off a solid start where he allowed three earned runs in 6 innings of work, the Mets have won 6 of their last 8 games with Vargas following up a Quality Start. He faces a Padres team that struggles against left-handed pitching. San Diego is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starters with a .231 batting average along with a .305 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .709 — and they have lost a decisive 42 of their last 57 road games against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking for this play. Because the Padres’ bullpen has an ERA of 4.82 this season, they fall into a historical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 75% effective since 1997. National League road favorites with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or higher with an On-Base Percentage below .310 for the season (San Diego: .304 On-base Percentage) have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 63 of their last 84 situations (priced in the +115 to +160 range) where these conditions applied. The Mets have lost their last three games by just one run — so taking the +1.5 Run-Line is my preferred play with that price below my -150 threshold. 25* MLB National League Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the New York Mets (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (955) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Chris Paddack. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (911) and the Tampa Bay Rays (912) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Jalen Beeks. THE SITUATION: Boston (54-46) has lost two of their last three games with their 5-0 loss at Baltimore yesterday. Tampa Bay (57-45) snapped a five-game losing streak yesterday with their 4-2 win against the Chicago White Sox.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox were shut out for the first time in eighty-one games — and they had bashed at least one home run in eleven straight games before yesterday. Boston has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Red Sox stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 35 road games Over the Total when priced as the favorite at -125 or higher. The Over is also 13-3-1 in Boston’s last 17 games when playing on artificial turf. And in their last 51 opening games to a new series, the Over is 34-15-2. They give the ball to Rodriguez who is 11-4 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty starts. The left-hander has pitched his best at home where he owns a 3.84 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 4.91 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .288 opponent’s batting average in ten starts on the road. Rodriguez also has a 7.11 ERA in four career starts at Tropicana Field. The Red Sox have lady 11 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with Rodriguez on the hill. And while Rodriguez comes off a strong effort where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work at home against Toronto, Boston has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Rodriguez following up a Quality Start in his last effort. Furthermore, the Red Sox have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Rodriguez pitching at night. Tampa Bay has seen the Over go 8-2-3 in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Over is also 3-0-2 in the Rays’ last 5 opening games to a new series. They counter with Beeks who is 5-0 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been used exclusively as a bulk inning pitcher out of the bullpen — but he will be making his first official start in this game tonight. I am not sure I buy into the “opener” craze that teams like Tampa Bay have embraced (while conceding the opener can mess with the opposing team’s starting lineup when a pitcher throwing with the other hand comes in to pitch in the 2nd inning). That said, there is a reason that the Rays’ coaching staff has been reluctant to have Beeks open games until now. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.42 and 4.65 moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Because Beeks does not have much of a fastball, he needs all four of his pitches working to be effective. Beeks has not been as successful when pitching at home where he owns a 3.77 ERA along with a 1.42 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 31 innings of work as opposed to his 1.87 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average in 33 2/3 innings on the road. He faces a Red Sox lineup that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 6-1 loss at home to Tampa Bay back on June 9th. The Red Sox have played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they scored only one run. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total when facing off in Tampa Bay. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (911) and the Tampa Bay Rays (912) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Jalen Beeks. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (979) and the New York Yankees (980) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: New York (64-33) has won five straight games with their 11-5 victory over the Rockies yesterday. Colorado (46-52) has lost six straight games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 13 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total after a win by at least four runs — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a victory. New York has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Bronx Bombers last 9 games at home in Yankee Stadium — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The New York bullpen is getting it done as of late after not surrendering an earned run again last night. The Yanks’ bullpen has a sparkling 0.43 ERA over their last five games with a 0.76 WHIP while giving up just one earned run over that span consisting of 21 innings of work. New York has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run — and they have played 40 of their last 58 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or better over their last five games. They give the ball to Paxton who is 5-4 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in sixteen starts this season. The left-hander has allowed only five earned runs in three starts this month for a nifty 2.50 ERA. Paxton has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.22 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in nine starts. Paxton’s teams have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total with him taking the mound in the month of July. He should fare well against this Rockies team that is scoring only 4.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .243 batting average along with a .281 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .697. Colorado has played 6 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Rockies have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total on the road after a loss. Colorado has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing at least four straight games. The Rockies stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, Colorado has played 22 of their last 30 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +200 range. And the Under is 28-11-3 in their last 42 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Marquez who is 8-5 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander looks to redeem himself from a bad outing in his last start against the Giants where he allowed 11 earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work at home. That start was at home in Coors Field where he is saddled with a 7.07 ERA along with a 1.70 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .336 — but he has been much better at home where enjoys a 3.33 ERA along with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in ten starts. The Under is 7-3-1 in Colorado’s last 11 road games with Marquez facing a team with a winning record. The sabermetrics are encouraging for Marquez with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 3.63 moving forward. The Rockies have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total with Marquez pitching after a loss.

FINAL TAKE: The Colorado bullpen has logged in 9 2/3 innings of work over the last two days in the Bronx — but they have then played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 innings in their last two games. 25* MLB TBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (979) and the New York Yankees (980) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (909) and the Atlanta Braves (910) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Mike Soroka. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (59-40) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 4-3 victory over the Nationals. Washington (51-45) has now lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves were a small money-line underdog yesterday with Julio Teheran facing off against Patrick Corbin — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after delivering an upset victory as a home underdog. The Under is also now 6-2-1 in Atlanta’s last 9 games at home — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against NL East opponents. The Braves have also played 9 of their last 13 games in the month of July Under the Total. They give the ball to Soroka who is 10-1 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in sixteen starts. The rookie phenom has given up more than two runs only four times in those sixteen starts. The right-hander’s formula for success has been to limit gopher balls which is a tantalizing quality in this current home run obsessed era of launch angles. Soroka has given up only four home runs this year for a microscopic 0.38 Home Runs Allowed per 9 inning rate. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Soroka facing a team with a winning record — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total with him starting as the favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range. He faces a Nationals team that has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Washington has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a loss. The Nationals have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the month of July — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow NL East opponents. This is Washington’s seventh straight game on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games after playing their previous four games Under the Total. The Nationals have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road overall. They counter with Sanchez who is 5-6 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in seventeen starts this season. The veteran right-hander has not allowed more than three earned runs in fourteen of those starts — and he is 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA in his last five starts. The former Brave has a 3.00 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this year. And Sanchez has been a bit more effective on the road where he owns a 3.67 ERA with a .236 batting average in nine starts as opposed to his 3.76 ERA and .239 opponent’s batting average at home. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sanchez facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Braves lineup that has cooled off significantly this month — they are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .244 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 693 in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Braves were interesting with Overs last month — but it is time to zig from that zag. 25* MLB FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (909) and the Atlanta Braves (910) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (912) versus the New York Mets (911) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (47-49) has won five straight games — as well as twelve of their last fourteen contests — with their 11-8 victory at Colorado yesterday. New York (44-51) has won four games in a row themselves with their 14-4 win at Minnesota on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 13 of their last 19 games after scoring at least eight runs in their last contest. The Giants have also won 7 of their last 8 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. This team is crushing the baseball as of late having scored 115 runs over their last fourteen games (8.2 Runs-Per-Game) while scoring in double-digits in six of those contests. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, San Francisco returns home to begin this series — and they have won 9 of their last 12 opening games to a new series. The Giants have also won 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bumgarner who is 5-7 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty starts. The left-hander has been outstanding as of late as he is 2-0 over his last four starts with a 1.86 ERA with 28 strikeouts over 20 innings of work. He also loves facing this Mets team — Bumgarner has a 5-0 record in his last five starts against New York with a 1.26 ERA in those starts. Bumgarner has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.62 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in eleven starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average on the road. San Francisco has won 4 straight games at home with Bumgarner on the hill. He faces a Mets team that has lost 9 of their last 13 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 14 of their last 17 games after a game where at least seventeen combined runs were scored. The Mets have also lost 10 of their last 12 opening games to a new series. This is the sixth straight game on the road for New York — and they have lost 11 of their last 17 games after playing their last five games on the road. The Mets have also lost 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Syndergaard who is 7-4 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 4.68 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in eight starts. New York has lost 6 of their last 9 road games with Syndergaard pitching with the Mets’ priced in the +/- 125 range. The Giants have won 5 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers — and over their last seven games, they are scoring 8.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .321 batting average along with a .376 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .937.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has lost the last two games between these team teams in their last series in June. The Giants have won 18 of their last 26 games when playing with at least double revenge. 25* MLB Thursday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (912) versus the New York Mets (911) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (965) and the New York Yankees (966) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Domingo German. THE SITUATION: New York (60-33) has won two of their last three games with their 8-3 victory over the Rays in the second game of this series. Tampa Bay (56-41) had won three straight games before last night’s loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees clubbed two home runs en route to a six-run 8th inning to break open that game last night while ruining our Under that looked pretty good with the 3-2 score entering the bottom half of the 8th. New York had scored only 17 combined runs in their previous six games while not plating more than four runs in any of those games before last night. The Yankees bullpen did not surrender an earned run last night to help keep them in the game — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow at least one earned run. The Under is also 3-1-1 in New York’s last 5 games at home in Yankee Stadium — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against fellow AL East opponents. They give the ball to German who is 11-2 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in fourteen starts (fifteen games). The right-hander went on the disabled list with a hip injury but is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in his two starts since his return. German has been much better at home where he owns a 1.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in six starts (seven games) as opposed to his 4.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Yankees have played 6 straight games Under the Total with German pitching at home. Tampa Bay did not commit an error for the third straight game — they have committed only two errors in their last ten games. The Rays have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after not committing an error for at least two straight games. Tampa Bay has also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as a road dog priced at least at +150. They counter with Chirinos who is 8-4 with a 3.11 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in nineteen appearances. The right-hander had been used as a bulk inning middle reliever — but his ability to throw strikes has elevated him to a regular starter in the Rays’ rotation. Chirinos is walking only 5.3% of the batters he faces which combined with Tampa Bay’s outstanding defense to help suppress base runners when he is on the mound. He has made nine straight starts for his team with a 3.04 ERA in those efforts. Chirinos has also been a bit better on the road where he owns a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in nine appearances as compared to his 0.98 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average at home. The Rays have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Chirinos on the hill. He faces this cold Yankee lineup that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .250 batting average along with a .321 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .769 over that span.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams after last night’s late Over result. Expect a return to a lower scoring game today. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (965) and the New York Yankees (966) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Domingo German. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (930) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Steven Matz. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (58-34) had won four of their last five games before suffering a 4-3 loss at Cleveland on Sunday. New York (42-51) has won their last two games after they defeated the Marlins in Miami on Sunday by a 6-2 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Minnesota has bounced-back to win 38 of their last 56 games after a loss. The Twins have also won 9 of their last 12 games after an off-day. Minnesota returns home where they have won 36 of their last 52 games — and they have also won 42 of their last 59 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Pineda who is 6-4 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander entered the season returning from Tommy John surgery — so the first half of the season was expected to be a work in progress. Hitting the disabled list in late May for knee tendinitis did not help matters. Over his last five starts, Pineda has a 2.83 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP — and he is 2-0 with a 1.50 and a 0.92 WHIP while striking out 17 batters in 12 innings of work in his last two outings as things seem to be coming together for the 30-year-old. Remember, Pineda combined a 24.8% strikeout rate for the batters he faced from 2015 through 2017 before his elbow injury while inducing ground balls in 49.2% of the batted balls he allowed into play and walking only 5.2% of the batters he faced over that three-year period. Pineda’s velocity on his fastball has finally returned to what it was before his Tommy John surgery — so don’t be surprised if Pineda is dominant during the second half of this season for this powerful Twins lineup. He has done his best work at home this season where he enjoys a 4.28 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .251 in nine starts as compared to his 4.87 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average on the road. Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games with Pineda facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Mets’ team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .238 batting average along with a .295 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .691 over that span. New York has lost 9 of their last 112 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, the Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. New York has also lost 17 of their last 22 opening games to a new series. They stay on the road where they have lost 27 of their last 37 games — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Mets have also lost 24 of their last 35 games as a money-line underdog priced from +100 to +150. They counter with Matz who is 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in sixteen starts (eighteen games). The knuckle-balling lefty has been effective at home in Citi Field where he sports a 2.59 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 — but he sees those numbers skyrocket to a 7.07 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .306 in nine starts on the road. New York has lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road with Matz on the mound. And this Matz’s first appearance since coming out of the bullpen back on July 6th — and the Mets have lost 7 of their last 10 games with Matz making the start for the first time in at least nine days. He faces a hot-hitting Twins’ lineup that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .288 batting average .337 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .831 over that span. Minnesota crushes left-handed pitching as well as they score 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over the left-handed starting pitchers with a .297 batting average, .356 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .866. The Twins have won 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also won a decisive 50 of their last 67 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: While these team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play, because Minnesota has a slugging percentage of .495 this season, they are supported by a historical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 64% effective since 1997. The Mets are hitting only .254 as a team this season — and and National League road underdogs with a team batting average below .250 facing an American League team with a slugging percentage of at least .450 have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -190 to +165 range) in 67 of the last 105 situations where these conditions applied. Minnesota was priced in the -140 range last night — but I suspected that overnight line would rise above my -150 price threshold in the morning. This is still a great situation — but lets lower the investment cost by laying the Run-Line. The Twins have had 25 games this season where they were priced higher than -150 — and they have won 14 of those games by more than one run. Only in two of those games has Minnesota won the game by just one-run — and bettors with the Twins straight-up with the money-line ate the big investment cost with the loss nine times. If (and when) Minnesota wins this game tonight, it will be highly likely to be by more than one run. 25* MLB Interleague Run-Line of the Year with the Minnesota Twins (930) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (954) versus the Cincinnati Reds (953) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Luis Castillo. THE SITUATION: Chicago (50-43) has won three straight games — as well as five of their last six games — with their 8-3 victory over Pittsburgh yesterday. Cincinnati (42-48) has lost four of their last five games with their 10-9 loss in Colorado yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Manager Joe Maddon has mentioned that his team looks refreshed after taking some days off for the All-Star Break. Chicago has scored eighteen runs in their last two games — and they have won 42 of their last 56 home games after scoring at least eight runs in their last two games. The Cubs have also won 13 of their last 16 home games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Chicago stays at home in Wrigley Park where they have won 4 straight games — and they have won 18 of their last 24 home games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range. The Cubbies have also won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 7-7 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.65 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in seven starts as opposed to his 5.44 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Cubs have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Hendricks on the hill — and they have won 16 of their last 18 home games with Hendricks pitching as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 range. He faces a Reds’ team that has just a .233 batting average on the road away from the Great American Ballpark along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .695. Cincinnati has lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. Hendricks loves pitching against the Reds as he owns a 6-2 lifetime record against them with a 3.31 ERA in fifteen career starts. Hendricks is also 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts against Cincinnati. The Reds have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Cincy won their game on Saturday in Colorado by a 17-9 score — but they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last two games and they have lost 13 of their last 17 games after allowing at least eight runs in two straight contests. The Reds stay on the road where they have lost 6 of their last 7 games — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new series. They counter with Castillo who is 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics call for significant regression given his SIERA and xFIP which projects an ERA of 4.23 and 3.79 moving forward given his deeper peripheral numbers. The biggest flaw on the 23-year-old right-hander is his penchant to issue walks — especially on the road. Castillo has issued 28 bases-on-balls in 42 innings away from home which translates into a troubling 6.0 walks per 9 innings rate. Castillo has a 1.40 WHIP in eight starts on the road which has led to his ERA rising to a 3.21 mark as opposed to his outstanding 1.69 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP in his ten starts at home. Cincinnati has lost their last 3 road games with Castillo pitching as the underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. And while Castillo did not allow an earned run in his last start back on July 4th where he pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings at home against Milwaukee, the Reds have then lost 6 of their last 7 games with Castillo following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. He faces a Cubs’ lineup that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .294 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .941 over that span. Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 28 of their last 40 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has won 19 of their last 26 opportunities to host the Reds at Wrigley Field. 25* MLB Monday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (954) versus the Cincinnati Reds (953) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Luis Castillo. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland Indians (966) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (965) listing both starting pitchers Adam Plutko and Daniel Norris. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (51-40) has won six of their last eight games after they defeated Minnesota yesterday by a 4-3 score. Detroit (29-59) snapped a five-game losing streak yesterday with their 12-8 win at Kansas City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Tigers’ offensive explosion yesterday does not bode well for them tonight. Detroit has lost an incredible 43 of their last 51 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest — and they have lost 19 of their last 23 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last contest. Furthermore, not only have the Tigers lost 13 of their last 15 games after a game where at least seventeen combined runs were scored but they have lost 28 of their last 33 games after a game where at least fifteen combined runs were scored. Additionally, Detroit has lost 38 of their last 51 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Tigers have also lost 13 of their last 16 games against fellow AL Central opponents — and they have lost 6 straight opening games to a new series. They give the ball to Norris who is 2-8 with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in fifteen starts (eighteen appearances). The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 5.01 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .302 in nine starts (eleven games) as compared to his 4.89 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .279 opponent’s batting average at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Norris suffered a 7.32 ERA on the road as compared to his more modest 4.38 ERA at home. Detroit has lost 9 of their last 12 road games with Norris on the hill — and they have also lost 5 of their last 6 road games with Norris facing a team with a winning record. The Indians have found their bats with their lineup finally getting healthy — they have scored 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .280 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .891. Cleveland has won 9 of their last 11 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also won their last six games at home against left-handed starting pitchers. The Indians have also won 9 of their last 11 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Cleveland has won 5 of their last 6 games after a win. They stay at home where they have won a decisive 41 of their last 59 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. The Indians have also won 12 of their last 15 games against AL Central rivals — and they have won 8 of their last 11 opening games to a new series. They counter with Plutko who has been moved back into the starting rotation after spending some time in the bullpen. The right-hander has a 3-1 record with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 36 1/3 innings this season. The problem for Plutko mostly stems on the road where he has a 5.40 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .323. But in his 21 1/3 innings at home at Progressive Field Plutko has a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .221. Plutko had a 1.15 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average pitching at home last year as opposed to his 1.53 WHIP and .323 opponent’s batting average on the road. Cleveland has won 4 of their last 5 home games with Plutko on the mound. This is a great opportunity to face a Tigers team that scores only 3.2 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .229 batting average, .280 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .646. The Indians have Detroit’s number with seven straight victories in this series. The Tigers have lost 7 of their last 9 games when having lost at least five straight games to their opponent. Detroit has also lost 24 of their last 31 games against the Indians played in Cleveland.

FINAL TAKE: The team trends identified above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. Because the Tigers are scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game, Detroit falls into a historical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 65% effective since 1997. American League teams coming off a game where at least fifteen combined runs were scored who do not score more than 4.2 Runs-Per-Game and who are using a starting pitcher with an ERA in the 4.20 to 4.70 range have then lost 42 of the last 64 situations where these conditions applied. With Cleveland priced above my -150 price threshold, lower the investment cost by taking the Indians minus the -1.5 Run-Line. The Indians have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their last 13 games while losing three of those games outright and winning just two of those games by one run (and the +200 units from those wins is overwhelmed by the three money-line losses priced at -210, -175, and -250). 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Year with the Cleveland Indians (966) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (965) listing both starting pitchers Adam Plutko and Daniel Norris. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (913) versus the San Diego Padres (914) listing both starting pitchers Mike Soroka and Cal Quantrill. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (55-37) has won three straight games — as well as six of their last seven contests — with their 7-5 win in 10 innings over the Padres yesterday. San Diego (45-46) has lost the first two games of this series since the All-Star break.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win. Additionally, the Braves have won 26 of their last 36 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 18 of their last 24 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Atlanta has won 20 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have won 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Soroka who is 9-1 with a 2.42 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has a filthy two-seamer that drops on hitters to help induce a ground ball rate of 57% on the balls he allows into play. Soroka has been more effective on the road where he owns a nasty 1.29 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .171 in eight starts. The Braves have won 9 of their last 11 games on the road with Soroka on the hill. Atlanta has also won 12 straight games with Soroka facing a team with a losing record. He faces a slumping Padres lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .225 batting average along with a .263 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .649 during that span. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have also lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Quantrill who is 2-2 with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 41 innings of work. The 24-year-old right-hander has not been as effective at home in Petco Park where he owns a 4.98 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP along with a .295 opponent’s batting average in 21 2/3 innings consisting of four starts and six overall appearances as compared to his 4.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .236 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Padres have lost 4 straight games at home with Quantrill on the mound.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won 20 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes them winning nine of their last twelve games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have now won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. 25* MLB Road Warrior of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (913) versus the San Diego Padres (914) listing both starting pitchers Mike Soroka and Cal Quantrill. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Rangers (978) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (977) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Wade Miley. THE SITUATION: Texas (50-42) has won the first two games of this series after their 9-8 victory over the Astros last night. Houston (57-35) has lost two straight games after the All-Star break going into the break having won seven of their last eight contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Texas has won 7 of their last 9 games after a win — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after an upset victory over a fellow AL West rival. The Rangers have also won 13 of their last 18 games at home after winning at least three of their last four games. Texas has won 8 of their last 9 home games — and they have won 17 of their last 27 home games as the underdog. They give the ball to Minor who is 8-4 with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in eighteen starts this season. The veteran left-hander has enjoyed a career renaissance over the last twelve months or so by throwing fewer fastballs in lieu of more breaking balls and off-speed pitches. Throwing more junk has diminished the exit velocity from the batted balls from opposing hitters which is a big help when pitching in the hitter-friendly Global Life Park. Minor has a 2.34 ERA in nine starts at home as compared to his 2.73 ERA when pitching on the road. The Rangers have won 16 of their last 21 games with Minor on the mound after they have won at least three games. Minor’s teams have also won 32 of their last 56 games when is pitching as the underdog. Houston has lost 8 of their last 11 games after a loss — and they have lost 7 of their last 11 games after allowing at least nine runs in their last contest. Furthermore, while the Astros lost as a -200 money-line favorite yesterday with Gerrit Cole on the mound, they have then lost 10 of their last 16 games after suffering an upset loss against a divisional rival despite being a money-line favorite priced at least at -200. Houston has also lost 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 third games to a new series. They counter with Miley who is 7-4 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics for the left-hander call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.54 and 4.34 respectively moving forward. Miley thrives when pitching at home in the friendly pitcher’s environment that is Minute Maid Park — he enjoys a 1.86 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .199 in eight starts. But in his ten starts on the road, Miley sees those numbers rise to a 4.56 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250. His pitching in Global Life Field tonight could get ugly. He allows 1.24 Home Runs per 9 innings of work while allowing opposing batters to establish hard contact in 36.9% of the batted balls he allows. Furthermore, Miley does not miss many bats — he only strikes out 7.6 batters per 9 innings. Miley is also taking the mound for the first time since July 3rd given the All-Star Break — and his teams have lost 4 of their last 5 games when he pitching with at least seven days between starts. He faces a Rangers team that scores 5.7 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Texas has won 8 of their last 10 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The team trends identified above do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking for this play. Because the Rangers are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game, they are supported by an empirical angle that has been 66% effective over the last five seasons. Miley has an 0.89 WHIP over his last three starts — and teams who score at least 5.1 Runs-Per-Game using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.00 or lower over his last three starts now facing an American League opponent with a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or lower have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 61 of the last 93 situations where these conditions applied. While taking the Rangers as a money-line underdog is tempting, I prefer talking the underdog with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line when that proposition is priced below the -150 threshold. 25* MLB American League West Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Texas Rangers (978) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (977) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Wade Miley. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (912) versus the Cincinnati Reds (911) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Sonny Gray. THE SITUATION: Colorado (44-45) limped into the All-Star Break having lost six straight games after their 5-3 loss in Arizona on Sunday. Cincinnati (41-46) returns from the break on a two-game losing streak after they lost to Cleveland by an 11-1 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado returns home which will help them get back to their winning ways tonight. The Rockies have won 15 of their last 20 home games against teams with a losing record. Colorado has also won 16 of their last 20 home games with the number set in the 12 to 12.5 range. They give the ball to Jon Gray who is 9-6 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eighteen starts (nineteen games). The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.35 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in seven starts (eight games) as compared to his 4.29 ERA and 1.40 WHIP when pitching on the road. The Rockies have won 4 straight home games with Gray facing a team with a losing record. Colorado has also won 4 straight games with Gray pitching against the Reds. He will face a slumping Cincinnati team that was scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests going into the All-Star Break with a .234 batting average, .275 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .651 in those games. The Reds have lost 35 of their last 51 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincy has also lost 31 of their last 46 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Reds have lost 5 of their last 6 games after an off day. Cincinnati has also lost 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 22 of their last 29 road games after failing to score more than one run in their last game. Furthermore, the Reds have lost 4 straight games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Sonny Gray who is 5-5 with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he sports a 3.44 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP in ten starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.79 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP when he is pitching on the road. Cincinnati has lost 14 of their last 18 games on the road with Gray on the mound — and they have also lost 5 of their last 6 games with Gray facing a team with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Sonny Gray faces a Rockies that crushes pitching at home in Coors Field — they are scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .314 batting average along with a .376 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .911. Colorado has also won a decisive 35 of their last 52 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Friday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (912) versus the Cincinnati Reds (911) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Tampa Bay Rays (968) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (51-39) has won five of their last eight games after they defeated the Yankees in the third game of this series yesterday by a 4-3 score. New York (57-30) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in the loss on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. They close out the first half of the regular season with the Over going a decisive 36-13-2 in their last 51 games on the road — and the Over is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Bronx Bombers have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when priced in the +125 to -125 price range. Additionally, New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games played in the day Over the Total. They give the ball to Paxton who is 5-3 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has seen his productivity decline this year. His bases-on-balls are up — he is walking 9.9% of the batters he is facing as compared to his 6.5% walk rate last season. And his strikeouts are down — he is punching out 27.6% of the batters he has faced as compared to his elite 32.3% strikeout rate last season. Paxton has also struggled on the road where his ERA rise to a 5.12 mark along with a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .320 in six starts. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with Paxton on the hill. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has seen their bullpen blow saves in the last two games of this series — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after suffering two blown saves in a row. The Rays’ bullpen has a 6.82 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP over their last seven games. Tampa Bay has also played 21 of their last 31 home games Over the Total after playing a fellow AL East rival in their last three games. And the Over is 7-1-2 in the Rays’ last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Morton who is 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics predict regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.51 and 3.22 moving forward given his peripheral numbers. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 2.94 mark. The Rays have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Morton facing a team with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Morton pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees team that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .892 over that span. The Over is 35-12-2 in New York’s last 49 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers overall. The Yankees have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing on the artificial turf featured at Tropicana Field. Despite the profile of these two starting pitchers, expect a higher scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break TBS-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Tampa Bay Rays (968) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (919) and the Detroit Tigers (920) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann. THE SITUATION: Boston (47-41) has won two straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 9-6 score. Detroit (28-55) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 6-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Porcello who is 5-7 with a 5.07 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander suffered through a terrible June where he had a 6.46 ERA. Over his last two starts which includes his disastrous 1/3 inning of work in London against the Yankees last Saturday, Porcello has a 15.71 ERA along with a 2.77 WHIP in 6 1/3 innings of work. Perhaps the warning signs regarding regression for the 30-year old were in the second half of last season where he had an ERA of 4.54. Gopher balls have always been a problem for Porcello. He allowed 1.27 home runs per 9 innings last year — and this year he is allowing 1.24 homers per 9 innings. But while Porcello struck out 8.9 batters per 9 innings last year, that number has dropped to 7.28 strikeouts per 9 innings. Porcello struck out 23.5% of the batters he faced last year but that number has dropped to 18.3% this season. Porcello has also seen his walk rate rise from 5.9% of the batters he faced last year to 7.2% of the batters he has faced this season. Overall, his K%-BB% mark of 11.1% is his lowest in a Red Sox uniform and a far cry from his career high mark of 17.6% from last year. Porcello has particularly struggled on the road (and his disaster in London was officially listed as a home game) where he has a 5.15 ERA along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in seven starts. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Porcello on the mound — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total with Porcello facing a team with a losing record. Porcello also struggles in day games where his ERA rises to a 6.23 mark along with a 1.68 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296. He faces a Tigers team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games (as compared to their 3.6 Runs-Per-Game scoring average) along with an improved .257 batting average along with a .311 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .718 over that span. Detroit has played 4 straight Overs this month — and the Over is also 10-3-2 in their last 15 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Zimmermann who is 0-5 with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has not been as effective when pitching at home in Comerica Park where his ERA rises to a 5.40 mark along with a 1.48 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in four starts this season which included a long stint on the disabled list. Zimmermann does come off a nice performance where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work against Washington — but the Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Zimmermann following up a Quality Start. Detroit has also played 17 of their last 24 day games Over the Total with Zimmermann on the mound. He faces a red-hot Red Sox team that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .338 batting average along with a .383 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .965 during that span.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. These two teams have now played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (919) and the Detroit Tigers (920) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (930) versus the Chicago Cubs (929) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: The White Sox (41-43) look to bounce-back from their 11-5 loss to Detroit on Thursday after getting yesterday off. The Cubs (46-42) snapped a four-game losing streak on Thursday with their 11-3 win at Pittsburgh.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The White Sox have still won five of their last seven games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Southsiders have also won 5 straight games after an off day. This improving White Sox team has won 13 of their last 19 games at home in Guaranteed Rate Field — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Giolito who is 11-2 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander comes off a strong outing where he did not allow an earned run in 5 innings of work at home against Minnesota — and the White Sox have won 6 of their last 7 games with Giolito looking to follow up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. Giolito has been the beneficiary of the White Sox’s great pitching coach Don Cooper who shortened the arm action of the former top prospect which has helped him throw more strikes. Giolito has three effective pitches that he is comfortable to mix around with his four-seam fastball, his slider, and his changeup. Giolito has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.70 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP in eight starts. The White Sox have won 6 straight games at home with Giolito on the hill. The White Sox have also won 6 of their last 8 games at night with Giolito on the hill. The Cubs have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Cubbies have lost 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 10 runs in their last contest. The Cubs stay on the road where they are just 17-26 this season. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games — and they have lost 13 of their last 18 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Lester who is 7-6 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in sixteen starts. Lester does hit best pitching in Wrigleyville where he owns a 2.42 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .269 in nine home starts — but those numbers rise significantly to a 5.67 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in seven starts on the road. The Cubs have lost 4 straight games on the road with Lester on the mound. He faces a hot-hitting White Sox team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last five contests with a .293 batting average along with a .323 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .821 over that span.

FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have won 7 of their last 9 home games when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The Cubs remain overvalued relative to their play on the field this year — while bettors have been slow to catch up to the improving play of this White Sox team. There is nice value with the home team as a small underdog in this one. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Saturday Fox-TV Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (930) versus the Chicago Cubs (929) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (973) versus the Seattle Mariners (974) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Yusei Kikuchi. THE SITUATION: Oakland (47-40) has won five of their last six games with their 7-2 win over Minnesota yesterday. Seattle (38-52) has lost two straight as well as six of their last seven contests after their 5-4 loss to St. Louis yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland should build off their momentum tonight as they have won 16 of their last 21 games after a victory by at least four runs — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The A’s go back on the road where they are 22-22 this after winning 16 of their last 21 games away from home. Oakland has also won 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Anderson who is 8-5 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in seventeen starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 3.46 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in nine starts. The A’s have won 4 straight road games with Anderson on the hill. The veteran also sports a 2.74 ERA at night with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in ten starts this year. Oakland has won 8 of their last 10 games at night with Anderson on the hill. He faces a cold-hitting Mariners team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .199 batting average along with a .275 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .625 over that span. Seattle has lost 15 of their last 20 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Mariners have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 27 of their last 39 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests. They stay at home where they have lost 21 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. Seattle has left five runners on base in their last two games — and they have lost 6 straight games after not leaving more than five baserunners in two straight games. The Mariners have also played two straight Unders — and they have then lost 7 of their last 8 games after playing at least two games that finished Under the Total. They counter with Kikuchi who is 4-5 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in eighteen starts this season. The left-hander is beginning to really struggle in his first year pitching in the United States after being signed from Japan in the offseason. Over his last three starts, Kikuchi has a 6.75 ERA with a 1.88 WHIP spanning 16 innings of work. Kikuchi has also been less effective at home where his ERA rises to a 5.49 mark in eight starts. Seattle has lost 5 of their last 7 games with Kikuchi facing a team with a winning record. He faces an underrated A’s lineup that has scored 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Oakland has won 6 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (973) versus the Seattle Mariners (974) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Yusei Kikuchi. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Zach Elfin and Mike Soroka. Atlanta (51-36) snapped their two-game losing streak yesterday with their 9-2 win over the Phillies. Philadelphia (45-41) has lost three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a victory by at least six runs — and they have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Over is 14-5-1 in Atlanta’s last 20 games are scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have been an offensive juggernaut when playing at home in SunTrust Park where they are scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average along with a .348 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .840. The Over is 15-5-1 in Atlanta’s last 21 games at home — and the Over is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Soroka who is 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in fourteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression for the rookie right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 3.75 respectively moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Soroka has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.28 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in six home starts as compared to his 1.29 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and .171 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 4-1-1 in Soroka’s last 6 starts — and the Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Soroka facing a fellow NL East opponent. He faces a Phillies team that has seen the Over go 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the first two games of this series have finished Under the Total, the Phillies have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. They give the ball to Eflin who is 7-7 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression — and this may be well underway already — with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.64 and 4.75 moving forward. Elfin had a 4.02 ERA in his last five starts in the month of June — and he has surrendered 19 base hits in his last two starts spanning only 11 innings. Eflin has not been as effective on the road where he has an ERA of 3.62 along with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in nine starts. The Over is 3-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 5 road games with Eflin facing a team with a winning record — and Philly has played 11 of their last 14 Over the Total on the road as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range with Eflin on the hill.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 11-2-1 in Atlanta’s last 14 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Expect a high scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Zach Elfin and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (14) versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Reynaldo Lopez and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Chicago (41-42) has won five of their last six games after sweeping yesterday’s doubleheader with the Tigers by 7-5 and 9-6 scores. Detroit (27-54) has now lost three straight games as well as eleven of their last twelve contests. Lopez was scheduled to pitch against Boyd in the opening game of this series on Tuesday but rain postponed that game and both managers decided to push back the starters an extra day after both warmed up to take the mound.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The White Sox are now 24-18 at home in Guaranteed Rate Park — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games at home. Additionally, Chicago has also won 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They give the ball to Lopez who is 4-7 with a 6.12 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in seventeen starts this season. Those are unappealing numbers but the worst of it for Lopez has been when he has been on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.59 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in eight starts. Lopez has been pitching better at home as of late after enduring a terrible start to the season. Over his last four starts at home at Guaranteed Rate Field, Lopez has a respectable 4.27 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP covering 25 1/3 innings of work. Lopez was very good at home last year where he enjoyed a 3.63 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 as compared to his 4.20 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 home games with Lopez pitching when priced in the +125 to -125 range. He has a great opportunity to pick up his fifth win of the season against this Tigers team that is scoring 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests while hitting just .231 over that span with a .293 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .634. Detroit has lost a decisive 42 of their last 55 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Tigers have also lost 26 of their last 33 games after a loss — and they have lost 20 of their last 27 games after dropping the first two games in a series. Furthermore, Detroit has lost 54 of their last 72 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also lost 15 of their last 20 games against teams with a losing record. Detroit was a small favorite in this matchup because of Boyd who has a 3.72 ERA and a 1.09 WHP in seventeen starts which has resulted in a 5-6 record — but (unfortunately) the two-game sweep yesterday helped to alert bettors to the relative value offered by this improved White Sox team. Boyd has thrived at home where he owns a 3.36 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in nine starts. But the left-hander sees those numbers rise to a 4.17 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and .237 opponent’s batting average on the road. Last year, Boyd endured a 5.89 ERA along with a 1.31 WHIP on the road. And while Boyd is pitching better this year after simplifying his approach to relying mostly on his fastball and slider, he remains a fly ball pitcher who is vulnerable to giving up gopher balls. Boyd surrendered a whopping ten home runs last month in five starts after only surrendering seven home runs in his first twelve starts of the season — so pitching in Guaranteed Rate Park will be a challenge since they allow the fifth-most home runs in MLB this season. Detroit has lost 21 of their last 29 road games with Boyd on the bump — and they have lost 7 straight games with Boyd pitching in Chicago against the White Sox.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago surge as of late in large part because they are hitting the ball better. Over their last seven games, the White Sox are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .283 batting average. Chicago has won 7 of their last 8 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League Central Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (914) versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Reynaldo Lopez and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (980) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (979) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Seattle (38-51) snapped their four-game losing streak in the opening game of this series with their 5-4 victory over the Cardinals. St. Louis (41-42) has lost six of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Seattle bullpen blew a 4-1 lead last night before the Mariners scored the winning run in the bottom of the 8th inning — and they have won 9 of their last 14 games after a game where they blew a save. Seattle has won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Leake who is 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.00 ERA in seven starts as opposed to his 5.08 ERA on the road. Surrounding gopher balls has been the biggest problem for Leake this season as he allowed a league-leading 23 home runs this year. But 19 of those home runs came on the road — Leake has given up only four home runs at home in the spacious T-Mobile Park. The Mariners have won 8 of their last 9 home games with Leake facing a team with a losing record. Seattle has also won 28 of their last 38 home games with Leake pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. He should find success against the slumping Cardinals who are scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .229 batting average along with a .278 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .636 over that span. St. Louis has lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 13 of their last 20 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Additionally, St. Louis has lost 4 straight games in Interleague play. They counter with Wainwright who is 5-7 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has been effective at home where he owns a 2.68 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in eight starts — but he sees those numbers skyrocket to a 6.56 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .288 when on the road. The Cardinals have lost 4 straight road games with Wainwright on the hill — and they have also lost 5 of their last 7 games with Wainwright pitching in Interleague play. Furthermore, Wainwright has a 5.22 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in eleven starts — and St. Louis has lost 8 of their last 10 games at night with Wainwright on the mound. He faces a Mariners team that has won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The team trends referenced in this Report do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we will be taking in this contest. Because the Mariners average 1.71 Home Runs per game, they are supported by a Run-Line specific angle that has been 61% effective since 1997. Seattle has a bullpen WHIP of 1.45 — and home teams who average at least 1.5 Home Runs per game whose bullpen has a WHIP in the 1.45 to 1.55 range have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 114 of these last 187 situations. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Seattle Mariners (980) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (979) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Toronto Blue Jays (914) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Trent Thornton. THE SITUATION: Boston (44-40) returns stateside after getting swept in their two-game series in London against the Yankees where they followed up a 17-13 loss on Saturday with a 12-8 loss on Sunday. Toronto (32-53) has won three of their last four games with their 11-4 win over Kansas City yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least 10 runs in their last game to a fellow AL East rival — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 10 runs in two straight games. Furthermore, while the Red Sox bullpen surrendered ten runs on Sunday, they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen gave up at least four runs. The Over is also a decisive 41-16-2 in Boston’s last 59 games after an off day. They stay on the road where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games at home. They have also played 28 of their last 43 games when priced at -150 or higher. They give the ball to Price who is 5-2 with a 3.36 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.06 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in six starts — but those numbers climb to a 3.60 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 on the road. And while Price comes off a solid outing where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work at home against the White Sox, the Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Price looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .307 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .930 over that span — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Toronto has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Blue Jays stay at home where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record. Toronto has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Thornton who is 2-5 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective a home where his ERA rises to a 6.39 mark with a 1.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .272 in seven starts. The Blue Jays have played 4 straight games Over the Total at home with Thornton on the hill — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home with Thornton facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .328 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .924 in those games. Boston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between two teams when playing in Toronto. 20* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Toronto Blue Jays (914) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Trent Thornton. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Adbert Alzaolay and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Chicago (45-39) has lost four of their last six games after their 8-6 loss in Cincinnati yesterday. Pittsburgh (39-43) has lost two in a row after their 2-1 loss in Milwaukee yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less in their last game. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when facing an opponent that did not score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Cubs have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 22 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They give the ball to Alzolay who is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in his 8 2/3 innings of pitching this year after being called up from Triple-A. Obviously, we are dealing with a very small sample size — but there are some things to be worried about with the rookie. First, Alzolay has already issued six bases-on-balls in those 8 1/3 innings of work. Second, this will be his first time pitching in a hostile ballpark in his career at the major league level. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.30 and 5.44 based on his peripheral numbers — so I do not put much stock in his current ERA. Alzolay faces a hot-hitting Pirates team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .298 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .849 over that span. The Over is 15-5-1 in the Pirates’ last 21 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 9-3-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 13 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Pirates have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games at home Over the Total after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Over is 7-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 9 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Pirates have only scored two runs in their last three games — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in two straight contests. Pittsburgh returns home here the Over is 19-6-2 in their last 27 games. Additionally, the Pirates have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range — and they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Williams who is 2-2 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has struggled with a 6.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average in four starts. Pittsburgh has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total with Williams pitching at home. He faces a Cubs’ team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The last meeting between these two teams ended with the Cubs pulling a 2-0 loss in Wrigley Field back on April 11th. The Pirates have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than one run. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Adbert Alzaolay and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (913) and the New York Mets (914) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-34) has won six of their last eight games after they won Game Two of this series last night by a 5-4 score. New York (37-47) has lost seven straight games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by one run over a fellow NL East rival. The Over is also 10-3-1 in Atlanta’s last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 20 road games with the Total set at 7 to 8.5, the Braves have played 13 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Fried who is 9-3 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in sixteen starts (eighteen appearances). The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.50 mark along with a 1.52 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .280 in eight starts (ten games). Atlanta has played 9 of their last 12 games on the road Over the Total with Fried on the hill. Fried comes off a good effort where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work in Chicago against the Cubs (but his troubling walk rate as of late continued as he issued five bases on balls) — and the Over is 6-1-1 in the Braves’ last 8 games when Fried is looking to follow up a Quality Start. New York has played 16 of their last 24 games in the month of June Over the Total. The Mets have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when favored in the -100 to -150 price range — and this includes them playing nine of their last thirteen games at home Over the Total when favored up to the -150 price. New York has also played 34 of their last 50 games Over the Total when playing at night

At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (912) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (911) listing both starting pitchers Joey Lucchesi and Miles Mikolas. THE SITUATION: San Diego (41-40) has won four straight games after their 12-2 win over the Cardinals yesterday in the second game of this series. St. Louis (40-40) has lost five straight contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego is on fire with their bats right now. They have scored 33 runs during their four-game winning streak with 42 base hits which includes a whopping 16 more runs over that span. The Padres have won 6 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. San Diego has also won 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Lucchesi who is 6-4 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. The rookie has been pitching his best ball of the season as he owns a 3-1 record with a 3.38 ERA along with a 0.95 WHIP over his last five starts. The left-hander has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in nine starts. The Padres have won 7 of their last 10 games at home with Lucchesi making the start — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 home games with Lucchesi facing a team with a losing record. Lucchesi has had an extra couple days of rest to prepare for this start with his last effort being last Sunday — and San Diego has won 6 of their last 7 games with Lucchesi pitching with six days of rest. He faces a cold Cardinals lineup that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .219 batting average along with a .277 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .598 over that span. St. Louis has lost 5 of their last 7 road games when facing left-handed starting pitchers. That cause was made even worse for the Cards with Marcell Ozuna hitting the disabled list after suffering a broken right hand. Ozuna is the team’s best hitter with six more home runs and 26 more RBIs than any of his teammates. St. Louis has five of their last seven games — and they have then lost 12 of their last 18 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests. The Cardinals have also lost 17 of their last 25 games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record. St. Louis has also lost 6 straight games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Mikolas who is 5-8 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has been very tough when pitching at home in Busch Stadium where he owns a 2.48 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 — but those numbers explode to a 7.76 ERA with a 1.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .346 in seven starts on the road. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 6 road games with Mikolas on the mound. And while Mikolas allowed only one run in his last start which was at home against the Angels, St. Louis has lost 3 of their last 4 games when Mikolas is following up a start where he allowed only one earned run. The Padres are scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .275 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .902 in those games. San Diego has also won 5 straight home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have lost 16 of their last 24 games when playing with at least double-revenge. St. Louis has also lost 6 of their last 7 meetings with the Padres which includes them losing four straight games in San Diego’s Petco Park. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (912) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (911) listing both starting pitchers Joey Lucchesi and Miles Mikolas. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (921) and the Tampa Bay Rays (922) listing both starting pitchers Jesse Chavez and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Texas (46-37) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 5-2 loss to the Rays. Tampa Bay (47-36) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Texas has also played 15 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five contests. Additionally, the Texas bullpen has pitched only five combined innings in their last three games — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when their bullpen has not logged more than 5 combined innings in their last three contests. The Rangers have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total in the month of June. They also have played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road. Jesse Chavez takes the mound with his 3-2 record along with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP across 51 2/3 innings of work. The veteran right-hander is making his first start of the season because he has allowed only one earned run in his last 14 1/3 innings of work while striking out 14 batters and walking just one over that span. Working mostly in long relief this season, Chavez has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.37 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .222 in 26 1/3 innings of work as compared to his 4.26 ERA along with a .271 opponent’s batting average at home. Chavez’s teams have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when he is making a start with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a slumping Rays’ team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .202 batting average along with a .260 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .622 over that span. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Rays’ last 8 games after a win — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Tampa Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Rays’ last 9 games at home — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Snell who is 4-7 with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in sixteen starts. The left-hander has really struggled as of late having not completed four complete innings in three straight starts. He is struggling with his curveball which has allowed hitters to sit on his fastball. But his velocity on his fastball is still good at 96 MPH and he has an effective changeup as a counter to it. His last two starts have been on the road against two of the best offenses in baseball against the Yankees and Twins — so maybe just returning home will help cure what ails him. Snell has gotten pounded on the road where he has a 6.48 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 — but he has been very good at home with a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .218 opponent’s batting average in seven starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.57 and 3.20 moving forward. Tampa Bay has played 21 of their last 35 games Under the Total with Snell on the hill after a win. He should find success against this Rangers team that is hitting only .228 against left-handed starting pitchers with a .307 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .693. Texas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.  The Rangers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (921) and the Tampa Bay Rays (922) listing both starting pitchers Jesse Chavez and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (956) versus the Chicago Cubs (955) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (36-42) snapped a four-game losing streak last night by defeating the Cubs in the opening game of this series by a 6-3 score. Chicago (44-37) has now lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cincinnati has won 5 of their last 6 games after a victory — and they have also won 6 of their last 8 games after losing four of their last five games. Additionally, the Reds have won 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 5 straight games at home. They give the ball to Castillo who is 7-2 record with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has added a change-up this year which has helped him become more effective against left-handed hitters. Castillo has a deadly combination of attributes in that he is striking out 28.9% of the batters he is facing while inducing ground balls in 55.3% of the balls he is allowing into play. Castillo’s biggest flaw is that he is walking too many batters at a 13.0% clip of all the batters he faces. He issued five bases-on-balls in his last start on the road against Milwaukee. Castillo has a 1.40 WHIP when pitching on the road. But he has better control at home where his WHIP drops to a 0.97 mark which correlates with a 2.01 ERA and a .164 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. Cincinnati has won 14 of their last 20 home games with Castillo on the hill — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Castillo facing a team with a winning record. The Reds have also won 5 of their last 7 games with Castillo facing the Cubs. Chicago has lost 8 of their last 10 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubs have also lost 9 of their last 11 games away from home overall — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 19 road games, as an underdog priced at least at +100, Chicago has lost 15 of these contests. They counter with Quintana who is 4-7 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in sixteen games (fifteen starts). The lefty is mired in a big slump over his last nine starts where he has a 0-6 record with a 5.40 ERA. Quintana’s velocity is down to just 91.7 MPH on his fastball which is the lowest mark since his rookie season back in the idyllic days of 2012. The result has been that Quintana has not struck out more than six batters in eleven straight starts. Quintana has also been less effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.93 mark along with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .288 on seven starts (eight games). The Cubs have lost 4 straight road games with Quintana on the mound. Quintana has also been rocked with a 6.29 ERA along with a 1.49 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .302 in six day starts.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5 games with Quintana facing the Reds. Cincy is currently scoring a healthy 5.1 Runs-Per-Game. 25* MLB National League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (956) versus the Chicago Cubs (955) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Boston Red Sox (966) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: New York (52-28) begins this series having won three straight games — as well as eleven of their last twelve contest — after their 8-7 victory over Toronto on Thursday. Boston (44-38) has lost three of their last five games after their 8-7 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Thursday. While the Red Sox are the technical home team who will bat last in this series, this game is being played on a neutral field at London Stadium in England.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win by just one run. New York has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 35-14-2 in the Bronx Bombers’ last 51 games on the road. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in sixteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics for the right-hander calls for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.18 and 3.96 moving forward. Tanaka has not been as effective away from Yankee Stadium as he owns a 3.89 ERA on the road in six starts as compared to his 2.84 ERA at home. And while Tanaka comes off a nice outing where he allowed only two runs in 6 innings of work against the Astros — but the Over is 4-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games when Tanaka is on the hill looking to follow up a Quality Start. The Over is also 3-1-1 in New York’s last 5 games with Tanaka facing the Red Sox. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitching. The Red Sox are swinging hot bats right now as they are scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .310 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .868 over that span. Additionally, the Over is 40-16-2 in Boston’s last 58 games after an off day — and the Over is 29-14-2 in their last 45 opening games to a new series. The Red Sox have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total in contests with the Total set at 11 or higher. The Over is also 4-1-1 in Boston’s last 6 games against fellow AL East opponents. They counter with Porcello who is 5-7 with a 4.52 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander either with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.89 and 5.02 respectively moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Porcello has struggled away from Fenway Park where he has a 5.15 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.11 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average when pitching in Fenway. The Red Sox have played 3 of their last 4 games with Porcello pitching with the Total set at 11 or higher. He faces a powerful Yankee lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .304 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .935.

FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Expect a high scoring game between these two teams swinging hot bats. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Boston Red Sox (966) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Nationals (927) versus the Detroit Tigers (928) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Daniel Norris. THE SITUATION: Washington (40-40) has won three straight games — as well as eight of their last ten contests — with their 8-5 win at Miami yesterday. Detroit (26-50) has lost seven straight games — as well as eleven of their last twelve contests — after their 3-1 loss to Texas yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NATIONALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: This red-hot Washington team has won 6 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Nationals have also won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Washington stays on the road where they have won 6 of their last 7 games — and they have won 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 10 to 10.5. Additionally, the Nationals have won 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Washington sends out Sanchez who is 3-6 with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in fourteen starts. The 35-year old has reinvented himself late in his career by adding a cutter into his arsenal to compensate for his declining velocity — and this has lowered his hard-hit rate by opposing batters. Sanchez has been outstanding as of late with a 3-0 record over his last five starts with a 2.45 ERA over that span. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.84 ERA with a .233 opponent’s batting average in seven starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA and .244 opponent’s batting average at home. The Nationals have won 4 of their last 5 games with Sanchez pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He faces a cold Tigers lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last five games. Detroit has lost 10 of their last 14 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. The Tigers have also lost 22 of their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Detroit has lost 12 of their last 14 home games after being on at least a three-game losing streak. The Tigers have also lost 23 of their last 29 games after a loss — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Detroit has been a disaster when playing at home in Comerica Park where they have dropped 20 of their last 22 games. The Tigers have also lost 26 of their last 33 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have lost 20 of their last 25 home games as the underdog. They counter with Norris who is 2-6 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in thirteen starts (sixteen appearances). The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.10 ERA as compared to his more modest 4.44 ERA on the road. Detroit has lost 16 of their last 21 home games with Norris on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Nationals team that has scored 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .268 batting average along with a .332 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .809 over that span.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has won 9 of their last 13 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. With the price on the Nationals below my -150 price threshold, let’s attack. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Road Warrior of the Year with the money-line on the Washington Nationals (927) versus the Detroit Tigers (928) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Daniel Norris. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (903) versus the San Francisco Giants (904) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Jeff Samardzija. THE SITUATION: Colorado (41-38) looks to bounce-back from losing the second game of this series by a 4-2 score. San Francisco (34-44) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory behind the efforts of starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner — but they have still lost five of their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Despite the loss on Tuesday, Colorado has won 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Rockies have also won 15 of their last 21 road games when priced in the -125 to -175 range as the favorite. They give the ball to Marquez who is 7-3 with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in seventeen starts this season. The right-hander with the devastating curveball should be seeing better results according to the sabermetrics. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.70 and 3.44 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. Marquez also struggles at home in Coors Field where he has been saddled with a 5.70 ERA along with a 1.60 WHIP. But in his eight starts on the road, Marquez has a nice 3.02 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .186. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Marquez had a 4.74 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 at home but saw all those numbers significantly improve when getting away from Coors Field on the road where he had a 2.95 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .203. Marquez comes off a strong start on the road in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Friday when he allowed just two runs (one earned) in 8 innings of work. Colorado has won 11 of their last 13 games with Marquez pitching with four days of rest. The Rockies have also won 6 straight games with Marquez on the mound against teams with a losing record. Marquez also thrives in day games given his 3.06 ERA in day games with a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in five starts. Colorado has won 5 straight games with Marquez pitching in an afternoon game. He should pitch well against this slumping Giants’ lineup that is hitting only .204 over their last seven games with a .261 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .635. San Francisco has lost 29 of their last 39 third games of a series. The Giants are playing their ninth straight game against a fellow NL West opponent — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least six games in a row against division foes. San Francisco is just 16-22 at home this year — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Giants have also lost a decisive 44 of their last 61 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Samardzija who is 4-6 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in fifteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the former Notre Dame wide receiver with both his SIERA and xFIP calling for a rise in ERA to respective 4.84 and 5.11 marks moving forward. The right-hander has seen his numbers decline over the last few seasons. He has lost three miles-per-hour on his fastball than what he was clocking back in 2017. Samardzija has not been as effective during day games where he has a 4.35 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .264 in six starts as compared to his more modest 4.15 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average at night. Last year, Samardzija had an 8.10 ERA with a 2.10 WHIP in day games. Additionally, San Francisco has lost 4 straight games with Samardzija pitching at home in AT&T Park — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games at home with Samardzija facing a team with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have lost 6 of their last 8 games with Samardzija pitching against the Rockies. Look for Marquez have the upper hand this afternoon. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Getaway Game of the Year with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (903) versus the San Francisco Giants (904) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (970) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (969) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (50-27) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 6-1 loss at Kansas City. Tampa Bay (45-33) has won two of their last three games after they defeated the A’s in Oakland by an 8-2 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has bounced-back to win 22 of their last 28 games after a loss — and they have won 10 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than one run against a fellow AL Central opponent. The Twins have also won 20 of their last 28 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 11 games after an off day, Minnesota has won 9 of these contests. They return home where they have won 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Gibson who is 7-4 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in fourteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics for the veteran right-hander are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.97 and 3.62 moving forward. Gibson has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.62 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in six starts as compared to his 4.68 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Twins have won 4 of their last 5 games at home with Gibson on the hill — and they have also won 6 straight games with Gibson pitching with five days of rest. He should pitch well against this Rays team that has scored only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .219 batting average along with a .272 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .602 during that span. Tampa Bay has lost 4 straight games after a win — and they have lost 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Rays’ bullpen pitched 8 innings on Sunday as they used Ryne Stanek as their opener. Tampa Bay has then lost 16 of their last 22 games when their bullpen logged in at least seven innings in their last game. The Rays have lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, Tampa Bay has lost 5 of these contests. They counter with Snell who is 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in fifteen starts. The left-hander comes off a disastrous outing where he only registered one out in Yankee Stadium while allowing six earned runs before being pulled. From suffering a freak accident which broke his toe to his allowing 2.2 Home Runs per 9 innings, this has been a down year for the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. Snell has been effective at home where he has a 3.28 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .218. But in his eight starts on the road, Snell sees those numbers explode to a 5.40 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .257. The Rays have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road with Snell on the hill. He faces another tough test against this Twins team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .292 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .852 in those games. Minnesota has won 8 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Rays have lost 4 of their last 5 meetings against the Twins. Look for Minnesota to continue their recent dominance against Tampa Bay. 25* MLB Tuesday Night Special Feature with the money-line with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (970) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (969) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Toronto Blue Jays (909) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Aaron Sanchez. THE SITUATION: New York (49-28) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 9-4 loss to Houston. Toronto (29-49) has won three of their last four games with their 6-1 win at Boston yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York had been crushing teams as they had outscored their previous six opponents by a whopping 60 to 23 mark while clubbing 17 home runs in those contests. The Yankees did extend their streak of hitting at least one home run to 26 games yesterday in their loss. The Bronx Bombers have bounced back to win 8 straight games after a loss by at least four runs — and they have won 27 of their last 33 games after allowing at least nine runs in their last contest. New York stays at home where they have won 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Sabathia who is 4-4 with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in twelve starts. The left-hander has been outstanding at home in Yankee Stadium where he owns a 2.18 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in six starts. The Yankees have won 29 of their last 39 home games with Sabathia on the hill. New York has also won 5 of their last 6 games with Sabathia facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Blue Jays team that has lost 27 of their last 36 road games against teams using a left-handed starting pitcher. Toronto has also lost 18 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Blue Jays have lost 12 of their last 15 games after a win — and they have lost 5 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. But the Toronto bullpen has logged in 10 2/3 innings of work — and they have lost 26 of their last 32 games when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. The Blue Jays have also lost 10 of their last 11 opening games to a new series. They counter with Sanchez who is 3-9 with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in sixteen stats. The right-hander has really struggled after suffering a finger injury that required him to leave early in a start on May 27th. Since that outing, Sanchez has allowed 23 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings of work for an 11.09 ERA along with a 2.04 WHIP. He has struck out only nine batters during that span after failing to strike out a single batter in his last effort against the Angels. Sanchez has particularly struggled on the road where he has a 6.08 ERA with a 1.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296 in nine starts. Toronto has lost 9 of their last 10 games on the road with Sanchez on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees lineup that has scored 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .270 batting average along with a .335 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .844 in those games. The Blue Jays have lost 6 of their last 8 games when playing the Yankees in New York. They also have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Sanchez pitching against the Yankees.

FINAL TAKE: While none of these team trends take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game, because Sanchez averages 4.9 innings per start, the Blue Jays fall into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 71% effective since 1997. Toronto is hitting .260 this season — and road underdogs who are not hitting above .260 using a starting pitcher who does not average at least 5 innings per start now facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced at last at +100) in 45 of these last 56 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League East Run-Line of the Year with the New York Yankees (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Toronto Blue Jays (909) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Aaron Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (980) versus the Los Angeles Angeles (979) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Tyler Skaggs. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (40-36) has won the opening two games of this series with their 4-2 victory over the Angels on Saturday. The Cardinals have won five of their last seven games as well as seven of their last ten contests. Los Angeles (38-40) has lost three straight games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis may be just 16-21 on the road this season but they play much better at home in Busch Stadium where they have now won 7 of their last 10 games. The Cardinals have also won 13 of their last 17 home games with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range — and they have won 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
Furthermore, St. Louis has won 22 of their last 28 games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Mikolas who is 5-7 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. The right-hander comes off an impressive effort in his last start where he pitches 6 scoreless innings against at home against a Miami team that had just seen his stuff in his previous outing. The Cardinals have won 12 of their last 17 games with Mikolas looking to follow up a Quality Start. Mikolas has been a much better pitcher at home this season where he enjoys a 2.55 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in eight starts. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where he had a 2.17 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average at home as opposed to his 3.53 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .264 when on the road. St. Louis has won 12 of their last 16 home games with Mikolas on the mound. They also have won 9 straight games with Mikolas pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. And with the Cardinals using a six-man starting rotation right now, Mikolas is pitching with five days of rest for this start — and St. Louis has won a decisive 16 of their last 20 games when he is pitching with five days of rest. Los Angeles has lost 13 of their last 16 games after dropping the first two games of a series. The Angels are now just 19-24 on the road this year — and they have lost 22 of their last 29 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Los Angeles has also lost 5 of their last 6 road games in Interleague play. They counter with Skaggs who is 6-6 with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander comes off an encouraging outing where he allowed only one earned run in 7 1/3 innings of work in Toronto. That was his first Quality Start in his last eight starts — and the Angels have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Skaggs looking to follow up a Quality Start. Skaggs stays on the road for this start where he will not have the luxury of facing that light-hitting Blue Jays’ lineup. Skaggs has been much worse on the road where he has a 5.27 ERA along with a .261 batting average in eight starts as compared to his more modest 3.58 ERA along with a .233 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Angels have lost 5 straight games against the Cardinals — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against them playing in St. Louis. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Sunday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (980) versus the Los Angeles Angeles (979) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Tyler Skaggs. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (913) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (914) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Zack Godley. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (32-43) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 11-5 win over the Diamondbacks. Arizona (38-39) has lost five straight games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants played their fourth straight game Over the Total last night — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in San Fran’s last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have now played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NL East opponents. Furthermore, the Giants have played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 14-6-2 in their last 22 road games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 17 road games as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range, San Francisco has played 11 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Beede who is 1-2 with a 6.67 ERA with a 1.91 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings of work. The former first-round pick picked up his first win in MLB on Monday in Los Angeles against the Dodgers — but he still has a troubling 6.75 ERA when pitching on the road. Beede has also struggled in night games where he has a 7.97 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282. The rookie has an uninspiring 32:22 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. The Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Beede on the mound as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. He faces a Diamondbacks team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Arizona has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by at least five runs. This team has also played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Godley who is 3-4 with a 6.52 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in fifteen appearances which include eleven starts. The right-hander has been clobbered when pitching at home in Chase Field where he has a 7.09 ERA in eight games which includes five starts. Godley also is saddled with a 7.33 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .288 in six starts (eleven appearances) at night. The seeds in Godley’s decline were evident last year where his Ground Ball rate declined by 6.5% while his walk rate of 4.09 Bases-on-Balls per 9 innings was over 1.0 Walk higher per 9 innings than in 2017. Godley will not pitch deep into this game — especially when considering that he had an ugly 9.20 ERA when going through the batting order for the third time last year. But the Arizona bullpen has struggled with a 7.22 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP in their last seven games. The Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Godley facing a team with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. These two teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total. Expect another higher-scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (913) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (914) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Zack Godley. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (958) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: San Diego (38-37) comes off a four-game sweep of the Brewers after their 8-7 victory on Wednesday. Pittsburgh (33-40) has won two of their last three games with their 8-7 win over Detroit on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 11-4-1 in the Padres’ last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 5-0-2 in San Diego’s last 7 games after an off day. The Padres have played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total after a win. And while the San Diego bullpen did not allow a run in their last game against the Brewers, they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run. The Padres stay on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lauer who is 5-6 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has thrived in the spacious confirms of Petco Park where he has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 7.81 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in his six starts on the road. The Over is 5-0-2 in San Diego’s last 7 games on the road with Lauer on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Pirates team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .301 batting average along with a .349 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .855 over that span. The Over is 15-5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, the Over is 14-4-2 in the Pirates’ last 20 games after a victory. Furthermore, the Over is 21-5-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 28 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Pirates have played 8 straight home games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after an off day. Pittsburgh stays at home where the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Musgrove who is 4-7 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in fourteen starts (fifteen appearances) this year. The left-hander has particularly struggled at home where he has a 5.71 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 in six starts. The Pirates have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Musgrove on the hill. He also faces a hot-hitting team right now with the Padres scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .331 batting average along with a .391 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .961 in those games. San Diego has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played in mid-May with the Pirates winning the last three games on the road despite being the underdog. The Padres have played 23 of their last 31 road games Over the Total when playing with at least double revenge after being upset as a home favorite in their last two games with their current opponent. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (958) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (979) and the Chicago Cubs (980) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: The White Sox (35-36) won the opening game of this series last night with their 3-1 victory. The White Sox have won four of their last six games while the Cubs (39-33) has lost four of their last five contests.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. And while the White Sox have not committed an error in three straight games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after not committing an error in two straight contests. This team has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is a decisive 46-21-3 in their last 70 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Giolito who is 10-1 with a 2.22 ERA and a WHIP of 0.95 in thirteen starts. The young phenom has allowed only one earned run over his last three starts for a minuscule 0.43 ERA along with a 0.76 WHIP over 21 innings. The right-hander has been particularly effective on the road where he owns a 1.48 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .156 in six starts. The White Sox have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total with Giolito on the hill — and this includes them playing their last 4 road games Under the Total with him on the hill. The White Sox have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Giolito looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Cubs team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a low .223 batting average along with a .270 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .635.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (904) versus the New York Mets (903) listing both starting pitchers Julio Teheran and Jacob DeGrom. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (43-30) has won ten of their last eleven games with their 12-3 win over the Mets yesterday in the opening game of this series. New York (34-38) has lost two straight as well as four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta is a very intriguing money-line underdog as they are currently the hottest team in baseball. They are dogs in this game because they are facing the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner — but the Braves have scored at least five runs in ten of their last eleven games while outscoring their last two opponents by a whopping 27 to 4 margin. Atlanta has won 8 of their last 9 games after a win — and they have won 21 of their last 27 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have been very tough to beat at home in SunTrust Park where they have won 9 of their last 10 games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Teheran who is 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in fifteen starts. Over his last eight starts, the veteran right-hander has an outstanding 0.81 ERA — and he has not allowed a home run since April 30th. Teheran has been great at home where he owns a 1.85 ERA in six starts. Atlanta has won 6 straight home games with Teheran on the hill — and they have won 5 straight home games with Teheran facing a team with a losing record. Additionally, the Braves have pulled the upset in a whopping 14 of their last 16 games with Teheran pitching as the underdog — and this includes six straight wins with him pitching as a home dog. He faces a Mets team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least ten runs in their last game. The Mets have also lost 21 of their last 27 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with DeGrom who is 3-6 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has been not quite as effective on the road in seven starts where opponents are hitting .238 against him as opposed to his .227 opponent’s batting average at home. But his teammates rarely seem to provide him much run support as the Mets have lost 5 straight games on the road. New York has also lost 8 of their last 10 games with DeGrom pitching as the favorite. He does come off a strong outing where he allowed only two runs in 7 innings of work against the Cardinals — but the Mets have lost 4 straight games with DeGrom looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 8.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .350 batting average along with a .414 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.042 over that span. Atlanta is also scoring a robust 5.9 Runs-Per-Game at home this season with a .281 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .853. The Braves have won 10 of their last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 6 of their last 7 games with DeGrom making the start against the Braves — and this includes them losing four straight games on the road in Atlanta. New York has also lost 5 of their last 7 games in SunTrust Park against the Braves. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League East Underdog of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (904) versus the New York Mets (903) listing both starting pitchers Julio Teheran and Jacob DeGrom. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Soroka. THE SITUATION: New York (34-37) has lost three of their last four games with their 4-3 loss to St. Louis yesterday. Atlanta (42-30) has won nine of their last ten games after they crushed Philadelphia yesterday by a 15-1 score on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 10-1-1 in the Braves’ last 12 games after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta’s bullpen has pitched 9 1/3 combined innings over their last two games — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total when their bullpen has logged in at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. The Over is also 12-3-1 in the Braves’ last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Soroka who is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP in eleven starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not bullish on the rookie right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.93 and 3.59 moving forward. Soroka opened the season with an unsustainable low Batting Average for the Balls he Allowed Into Play (BABIP) and Home Run to Fly Ball rate — and the that he is still leaving 77.6% of the runners left on base when retiring the side is well above the league average. But the right-hander has seen the Regression Gods already visit him a few times this month as he has a 4.12 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP over his last three starts while striking out only 14 batters in 19 2/3 innings of work. Soroka has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.03 mark along with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in five starts as compared to his filthy 1.11 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and .154 opponent’s batting average on the road. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Soroka facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games after a loss. Additionally, New York has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total in night games. They counter with Wheeler who is 5-4 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has a 5.48 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in seven starts. The Over is 7-3-2 in the Mets’ last 12 road games with Wheeler on the mound. The Over is also 6-0-2 in New York’s last 8 games with Wheeler pitching on five days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 9.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .342 batting average along with a .402 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.056 over that span. Atlanta is scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves have scored at least nine runs twelve times this season. They face a pitcher in Wheeler who has already surrendered 13 home runs this season. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (913) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Chicago (39-31) had lost four of their last five games before they eked out the third game of this series yesterday with their 2-1 victory over Los Angeles. The Dodgers (47-24) won the first two games of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Cubs did not commit an error for the fourth straight game yesterday — but they have then lost 10 of their last 15 games after not committing an error in at least two straight games. Chicago remains a troubling 15-20 on the road this season. The Cubs have lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, Chicago has lost 8 of their last 10 road games when an underdog priced at least at +150. They give the ball to Quintana who is 4-6 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP this season in thirteen games (fourteen appearances). The deeper sabermetrics are troubling for the left-hander. For starters, his hard-hit rate stands at 37.8% of the batted-balls he is allowing into play which is the highest of his career after last year’s high of 33.5%. Quintana has been at his best when he is not walking batters while inducing lightly hit fly balls. But he walked four batters in 4 2/3 innings of work in his last start. Quintana’s fly ball rate to his lowest since 2015 while his decision to trust his infield has led to a ground ball rate of the balls he is allowing into play of 47.3% which is the highest in his career. His strikeout rate of 20.8% of the batters he faces is also his lowest since 2015. The lefty is throwing first ball strikes while increasing the use of his sinker — but both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.41 and 4.14 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. Quintana has done his best pitching at home in Wrigley Field where he enjoys a 2.98 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in seven starts — but those numbers skyrocket to a 5.13 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .281 when he is on the road. The Cubs have lost 9 of their last 12 road games with Quintana on the hill. He faces a Dodgers team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .280 batting average along with a .353 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .856. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Dodgers have also won 13 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Los Angeles has won 9 of their last 11 games after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Dodgers have won 51 of their last 76 games after a loss — and they have won 37 of their last 51 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. LA has also still won an incredible 21 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 18 of their last 22 games after playing their last three games at home. While the fact that the Dodgers have won 23 of their last 28 home games when priced at least at -150 might compel most bettors to take their chances investing in the higher price, that would be the less profitable path this season. Los Angeles has been a home favorite priced above my -150 threshold 29 times this season — and they have won 21 of those games by more than one run to produce a much better yield overall. They count on Ryu tonight who is enjoying a sensational season with his 9-1 record along with a 1.36 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in thirteen starts. The issue for the left-hander has been more about durability than overall talent. Ryu enters this game with an eye-popping 77:5 strikeout to walk ratio in 80 innings of work. Led by one of the best changeups in baseball, Ryu has been nearly unhittable at home where he has a 1.01 ERA with a 0.65 WHIP and .172 opponent’s batting average in six starts. We have to expect some regression is inevitable with gaudy numbers like that — but remember that Ryu had a 1.97 ERA last year overall with 1.15 ERA at home along with a 0.90 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average so his spectacular 2019 did not come out of nowhere. The Dodgers have won 39 of their last 55 home games with Ryu on the hill including all six this season. LA has also won 5 straight home games with Ryu facing a team with a winning record. And in his last 26 starts when priced as a favorite at -150 or higher, the Dodgers have won 21 of those games. He faces a Cubs team that has lost 5 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also lost 7 of their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has won 8 of their last 10 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite to their opponent. The Cubs have still lost 9 of their last 12 games in Dodger Stadium against the men in blue. Rather than paying the higher price on LA, the recent history makes it clear that the better investment is to lower the price by laying the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Sunday ESPN Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (913) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Rangers (929) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (930) listing both starting pitchers Ariel Jurado and Sonny Gray. THE SITUATION: Texas (38-32) has won the first two games of this series — as well as six of their last nine contests — after taking Game Two of this series yesterday by a 4-3 score. Cincinnati (30-38) has now lost six of their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Texas has now won 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have won 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Rangers have now won 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games in Interleague play. This team is big money-line underdogs due to the betting public’s lack of faith in Jurado despite his 4-2 record along with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 41 2/3 innings in fourteen appearances including five starts this season. The 23-year-old right-hander has rattled off four straight Quality Starts due in large part because he is inducing ground balls in 50.8% of the batted balls he is allowing into play. While not a phenom, Jurado has always been an intriguing prospect given his career 53% ground ball rate in the minor leagues allow with a sub-2.0 walks per 9 innings rate. Improved velocity this season has helped improve the effectiveness of his sinker. Jurado has also been more effective on the road where he has a 2.95 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in 21 1/3 innings which includes two starts as opposed to his 3.10 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average at home. Jurado comes off a solid start in Boston where he allowed three runs on just five hits in 6 innings of work. The Rangers have won 4 of their last 5 games with Jurado looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a slumping Reds lineup that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .199 batting average along with a .275 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .625 over that span. Cincinnati has lost 7 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Reds have also lost 7 of their last 10 third games in a series after losing the first two games. Additionally, Cincinnati has lost 4 straight games at home as well as 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 30 games played in the day, the Reds have lost 21 of these games. They counter with Gray who is 2-5 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where his ERA rises to a 4.09 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in seven starts in the Great American Ballpark as compared to his 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .198 opponent’s batting average on the road. Gray also sees his ERA rise to a 3.81 mark in his six starts during the day — and the Cincy has lost 4 of their last 6 day games with Gray on the hill.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers’ bats should keep them competitive in this game as they are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .270 batting average along with a .338 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .817. Texas has won 13 of their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. With the Reds being a money-line favorite priced in the -170 range, that lowers the price on the Rangers getting the valuable +1.5 Run-Line below my -150 price threshold. Let’s attack! 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Texas Rangers (929) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (930) listing both starting pitchers Ariel Jurado and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (977) and the Oakland A’s (978) listing both starting pitchers Gerson Bautista and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Seattle (30-43) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-2 score over Oakland (35-35) in Oakland Alameda County Coliseum.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is also 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They stay on the road where the Over is a decisive 34-16-1 in their last 51 games — and the Over is also 11-3-1 in Seattle’s last 15 road games against teams with a losing record. And while the A’s are 18-14 at home this year, the Mariners have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Seattle has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the month of June — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow AL West foes. They will be using an opening tonight with Bautista taking the hill with his 5.40 ERA and 2.40 WHIP in just 3 1/3 innings of work. Bautista had a 12.46 ERA with a 3.00 WHIP in 4 1/3 innings of work last season. Let’s put it this way: although Bautista has appeared in only eight games in his major league career since debuting last year, he has allowed at least one run in six of those contests. So when Wade LeBlanc enters this game in the second inning, there is a good chance that the A’s will already have runs on the board. The left-hander has a 3-2 record this year with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in six starts/eight appearances this season. LeBlanc was not quite as effective on the road last year where he had a 1.24 WHIP with a .255 opponent’s batting average as opposed to his 1.12 WHIP and .247 opponent’s batting average at home. LeBlanc has struggled under the lights this year with a 6.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .284 opponent’s batting average in three starts/four appearances at night. Bautista and then LeBlanc will be facing an A’s team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Seattle bullpen will not offer much support either was LeBlanc is pulled. The Mariners’ pen has a 6.32 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP on the road — and they have a 7.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in their last seven games. Oakland has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. The A’s have also played 18 of their last 26 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9 to 9.5 range. Oakland has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against AL West foes. They counter with Montas who is 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirteen starts. The 26-year old is enjoying a breakout season — but the sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.78 and 3.55 respectively moving forward based off his deeper peripheral numbers. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 3.54 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 2.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where he had a 4.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average at home as opposed to his 3.44 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average on the road. The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Montas pitching with the Total set at 9 to 9.5. Montas last pitched on June 9th — and Oakland has played 7 straight games Over the Total when he is starting with five days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting Mariners lineup that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .265 batting average, .337 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .850 over that span. The Over is also 33-16-2 in Seattle’s last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 14 contests Over the Total. Expect another higher scoring game between these two clubs. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (977) and the Oakland A’s (978) listing both starting pitchers Gerson Bautista and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (908) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (40-29) has won seven straight games after their 6-5 win over Pittsburgh last night. Philadelphia (38-30) has lost three of their last four games after losing at home to Arizona on Wednesday by a 2-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: This streaking Atlanta team has won 23 of their last 31 games after a victory. The Braves have also won 5 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They stay at home where they have won 6 straight games — and they have won 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Fried who is 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in thirteen starts (fifteen appearances). The left-hander has been most effective when pitching at home in Suntrust Park where he owns a 2.75 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in six starts as opposed to his 4.75 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .301 opponent’s batting average in seven starts (and nine appearances) on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where Fried’s late-season call-up resulted in a 2.40 ERA, 1.27 WHOP and .200 opponent’s batting average in 15 innings at home but a 3.38 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average in 18 2/3 innings on the road. Fried’s improvement this season has in part come from his addition of a slider that has given him a third effective pitch. He is also inducing ground balls in 54.8% of the batted balls he is allowing into play. Bases-on-balls has been Fried’s biggest Achilles’ heel in the minor leagues but he has seen an improvement in his control this season. He has issued two walks or less in eight of his last nine starts this year. Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 games with Fried facing a team with a winning record. He should have success facing this Phillies team that has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 9 of their last 10 games after a game where no more than two combined runs were scored. The Phillies managed only three hits on Wednesday against the Diamondbacks — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 road games after not generating more than four base hits in their last game. They go on the road where they have lost 5 of their last 7 games — and they have also lost 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, Philly has lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Pivetta who is 4-1 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in seven starts. The right-hander entered the season with high expectations but he struggled with an 8.35 ERA in his first five starts which prompted him to be demoted to the minors. While Pivetta started striking out more batters in Triple-A which was enough for the Phillies to recall him to the majors again, control remains an issue as he walked 20 Triple-A batters in 37 innings. Pivetta has allowed only one run in his two starts back in the bigs — but he is making only his second start away from home this season. Pivetta struggled on the road last year where he had a 5.33 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .276 as compared to his 4.34 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .249 opponent’s batting average at home in Citizen’s Bank Park. Pivetta also issued 3.34 Walks per 9 innings on the road last year. Philadelphia has lost 5 straight games on the road with Pivetta on the mound. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .279 batting average along with a .363 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .894 over that span. Atlanta has won 7 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have also won 13 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta begins this NL East weekend showdown one game ahead of the Phillies in first place in the division. Philadelphia has lost 5 straight games against the Braves in Suntrust Park. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break NL East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (908) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (961) and the Baltimore Orioles (962) listing both starting pitchers Trent Thornton and John Means. THE SITUATION: Toronto (23-42) begins this series having lost four straight games after their 8-2 loss on Sunday to Arizona. Baltimore (20-45) has lost four of their last five games with their 4-0 loss in Houston on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays’ offense is struggling after getting shutout once and plating only four runners in their three-game series with the Diamondbacks over the weekend. They generated only one base-hit in their sixteen at-bats with Runners In Scoring Position over those three games — and they are hitting just .161 over their last 112 at-bats with RISP. Toronto goes on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set at 9 to 9.5. The Blue Jays have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 range. Additionally, Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Thornton who is 1-4 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in thirteen starts this season. The rookie is striking out 24.8% of the batters he has faced — and he is averaging a robust 9.8 batters per 9 innings of work. Walks have been his biggest weakness — but the right-hander has been much better on the road where he has a 3.21 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in six starts as compared to his 6.39 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home. The Blue Jays have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Thornton on the hill. Thornton should pitch well against this Orioles lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .217 over that span with a .264 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .638. Baltimore has played 4 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore has played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Orioles have played five straight games where neither team scored more than four runs — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where neither team scored more than four runs. Baltimore returns home to Charm City where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. The Orioles have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They counter with Means who is 5-4 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHP in ten starts (fourteen appearances). The right-hander has maintained a 2.77 ERA in his last ten appearances since April 14th. The left-hander has been remarkably consistent as he has not allowed more than three earned runs in nine of his ten starts including his last six starts. Means has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.53 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .173 in five starts (seven appearances) as compared to his 3.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Orioles have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Means on the mound — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with Means pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over that span with a .214 batting average, .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .642 over that span. The Under is 3-1-1 in Toronto’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 35-15-1 in their last 51 meetings — and this includes the Under going 14-6-1 in the last 21 contests between these AL East rivals when playing in Camden Yards. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (961) and the Baltimore Orioles (962) listing both starting pitchers Trent Thornton and John Means. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (921) versus the Cleveland Indians (922) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Trevor Bauer. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (31-30) have won three of their last four games after taking the first two games of this series after they rallied from a four-run deficit to defeat Minnesota (40-20) by a 9-7 score last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Indians have then lost 3 of their last 4 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. Cleveland has also lost 8 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. And while the Indians’ bullpen pitched 7 2/3 innings yesterday with Tyler Clippard serving as the opening in a bullpen game after Carlos Carrasco was scratched with the news of his health condition, they have then lost 4 straight games after a game where their bullpen pitched at least 6 innings in their last game. They give the ball to Bauer who is 4-5 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in thirteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander who is 0-4 in his last six starts. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.25 and 4.50 moving forward based on his peripheral numbers. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 5.60 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in six starts as opposed to his 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the road. Cleveland has lost 4 of their last 5 home games with Bauer on the mound. He faces a strong Twins lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .287 batting average, .337 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .873 in those games. Minnesota has won 37 of their last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes them winning nine of their last twelve games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have bounced-back to win 21 of their last 28 games after a loss. They also have won 9 of their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. This team has won 12 of their last 16 games on the road. Minnesota has also won 15 of their last 21 games in expected close contests where they are priced in the +/- 125 range. They counter with Berrios who is 7-2 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twelve starts this season. The right-hander has been a bit better on the road where he has a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in six starts on the road as compared to his 1.16 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average at home. The Twins have won 4 straight road games with Berrios on the mound. He comes off a strong outing where he allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings of work at Tampa Bay — and Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games with Berrios following up a Quality Start. The Twins have also won 4 of their last 5 games with Berrios facing the Indians. He faces a Cleveland team scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers while sporting a .227 batting average, .304 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .664 in those games. The Indians have lost 7 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota may have lost the first two games of this series but they have then won 7 of their last 8 games when motivated by at least double revenge. 25* MLB American League Central Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (921) versus the Cleveland Indians (922) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Trevor Bauer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (923) and the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Leake. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (27-29) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 9-3 score. Seattle (24-35) has lost three straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Angels have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Angels have played 5 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Skaggs who is 4-4 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in nine starts. The left-hander does his best pitching at home where he sports a 2.28 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 — but he sees those numbers rise to a 6.56 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in five starts. He will be supported by a bullpen that has been rocked with a 5.25 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP over their last seven games. Los Angeles has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Skaggs facing the Mariners — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Skaggs facing this team in Seattle. Skaggs faces a Mariners team that has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has also seen the Over go 19-6-2 in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 29-14-1 in the Mariners’ last 44 games against an opponent that scored at least five runs in their last game. Seattle has also played 31 of their last 43 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Additionally, the Over is 12-3-1 in the Mariners’ last 16 games at home — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Over is 15-5-1 in Seattle’s last 21 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Leake who is 3-6 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.44 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .300 in four starts at T-Mobile Park as opposed to his 1.36 WHIP and .278 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Leake had a 4.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .287 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .274 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Leake facing a team with a losing record. Seattle has also played 5 straight games Over the Total with Leake facing the Angels. Leake will be supported by a tired bullpen that has logged in 9 2/3 innings of work over their last two games. The Mariners have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 innings over their last two games. This bullpen has a 4.86 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP when pitching at home. The Angels are scoring a robust 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .820 over that span. Additionally, LA has played 5 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least six runs. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. 25* MLB Bailout Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (923) and the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Dylan Covey. THE SITUATION: Chicago (26-29) ha won four straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 10-4 score. Cleveland (28-27) has lost four of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Indians have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss. Cleveland has now played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bauer who is 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.40 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in six starts. The Under is a decisive 45-11-7 in the Indians’ last 63 road games with Bauer on the hill. The Under is also 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 4 road games in Chicago facing the White Sox. Bauer will be supported by an elite Indians’ bullpen that has a 3.15 ERA on the road with a 1.21 WHIP. Bauer faces a White Sox lineup that is scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers this season while posting a .249 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .694 in those games. Chicago has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 15-7-1 in the White Sox’s last 23 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by at least six runs over an AL Central rival. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 Games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games Over the Total after scoring at least 8 runs in their last contest. The White Sox have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Covey who is 0-4 with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in five starts and seven appearances this season. The right-hander has been effective when pitching at home where he sees is ERA and WHIP plummet to 2.61 and 1.16 marks — and his opponents are hitting just .189 when he pitching at home in Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago has played 5 straight games Under the Total with Covey pitching on four days of rest between starts — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Covey making the start against the Indians. Covey’s bullpen enters this game with a 2.37 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP in night games this season. Cleveland is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .224 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .668. The Indians have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: With Bauer struggling this month and bettors not giving much respect to Covey, the Total has been set in the 10 range for this contest. Bauer has allowed at least four runs in his last three starts — but all those efforts were at home where he has a history of not always being as effective. Bauer has still amassed 88 strikeouts in 76 innings of work — and he is facing a White Sox team that strikes out 30% of the time against elite starting pitchers like Bauer with similar profiles. Covey is not a strikeout pitcher and gets into trouble when issuing too many bases-on-balls — but the ground ball pitcher has better control when pitching at home. 10s or higher is too high for this matchup especially with two of the weaker lineups in the league. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Dylan Covey. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (970) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (969) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jason Vargas. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (37-19) has won five of their last six games after winning the third game of this series last night by a 9-8 score. New York (27-28) has lost two of their last three games as they close out this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers have been dominant at home where they have won 39 of their last 53 games — and they have won 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. LA has also won 18 of their last 22 after playing their last two games at home. The Dodgers have won 24 of their last 29 games when favored by at least a -150 price. They give the ball to Ryu who is 7-1 with a 1.65 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in ten starts. The left-hander has been almost unhittable at home where he owns a 1.22 ERA with a 0.65 WHIP and .177 opponent’s batting average in five starts. His disparate home-road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 1.15 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .240 opponent’s batting average on the road. Los Angeles has won 22 of their last 28 home games with Ryu pitching against teams with a losing record. The Dodgers have also won 5 of their last 6 games against the Mets with Ryu on the hill. New York has lost 15 of their last 21 road games after being on the road for at least their previous two games. The Mets have lost 18 of their last 23 games on the road — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Furthermore, New York has lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Vargas who is 1-2 with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in seven starts (eight games). The left-hander has been solid at home where he owns a 3.94 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 — but he sees those numbers explode to a 6.75 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .294 when he is pitching on the road. The Mets have lost 7 of their last 10 games with Vargas pitching with four days of rest. Vargas faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .325 batting average along with a .399 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .967 over that span. LA is also scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .281 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .852. The Dodgers have also won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets have now lost 8 of their last 11 games in LA against the Dodgers. With the Dodgers priced in the high -200s for this game, the straight-up side play is well beyond my -150 price threshold. And while the team trends mentioned in this Report do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we will be laying, the Run-Line is supported by a historical angle that has been 71% effective since 1997. The Mets average 1.33 Home Runs per game — but road underdogs who average at least 1.25 Home Runs per game coming off a game where at least 17 combined runs were scored have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 50 of these last 71 situations (when priced in the +110 to +155 price range). 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Los Angeles Dodgers (970) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (969) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jason Vargas. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (928) versus the Chicago Cubs (927) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Kyle Hendricks. THE SITUATION: Houston (37-19) has won the first two games of this series — as well as four of their last five games — with their 9-6 win over the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (30-23) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won a decisive 48 of their last 68 games after a win. Additionally, the Astros have won 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Houston has also won 18 of their last 20 games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. The Astros are tough at home where they are 22-7 this season — and they have won 36 of their last 51 home games in Minute Maid Park. Houston has also won 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games when priced in the +/- 125 range. They give the ball to Miley who is 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA, and a 1.16 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The left-hander comes off a strong start at home where he held the Red Sox to just one run in 6 innings of work while punching out eight batters. The Astros have won 5 straight games with Miley pitching after a Quality Start in his last outing. Miley has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.15 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .183 in five starts as opposed to his 4.36 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and .281 opponent’s batting average on the road. Houston has won five straight games with Miley on the mound. Say this about Miley: he is remarkably consistent about keeping his team competitive in his starts. He did not allow more than three earned runs in any of 16 starts with Milwaukee last year and he has only allowed more than three runs just once in his eleven starts for Houston this season. Miley has also been very tough under the lights as he owns a 2.15 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .183 in five starts. His teams have won 18 of their last 23 night games with Miley making the start. Chicago has lost 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Additionally, the Cubs have lost 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Chicago has lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Hendricks who is 4-4 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not bullish for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.08 and 3.84 moving forward. Hendricks has thrived at home in Wrigley Field where he owns a 1.29 ERA with 0.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 — but those numbers rise to a 6.00 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. The Cubs have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Hendricks pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. Chicago has also lost 6 of their last 9 games with Hendricks pitching against an American League team. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .289 batting average along with a .364 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .818.

FINAL TAKE: The Cubs have lost 9 of their last 13 games when playing the Astros in Houston. 25* MLB ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Houston Astros (928) versus the Chicago Cubs (927) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Kyle Hendricks. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (901) and the Cincinnati Reds (902) listing both starting pitchers Steven Brault and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (26-29) has won three of their last four games after winning the third game of this series last night by an 11-6 score. Pittsburgh (26-27) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. The Reds host this Getaway Game this afternoon to close out this four-game series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Pittsburgh has also seen the Over go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And the Over is now 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road. They give the ball to Brault who will serve as the opener this afternoon with his 1-1 record along with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings of work. The left-hander has been even less effective on the road where he has a 9.00 ERA with  2.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .353 in 12 innings — and he has an 11.88 ERA with a 2.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .378 during the day this season. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates’ last 4 road games with Brault on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Reds lineup that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .340 batting average along with a .399 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .988 over that span. The Over is also 3-0-1 in Cincy’s last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Pirates’ bullpen will be called on to log in plenty of innings after Brault this afternoon — but that group has an ERA of 5.85 over their last seven games with a WHIP of 1.67. Cincinnati has played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Reds have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with DeSclafani who is 2-2- with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.68 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP in four starts as compared to his 4.55 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP on the road. Tony Disco had a 5.02 ERA at home in the Great American Ballpark last year as competed to his more modest 4.78 ERA when on the road. The Over is 4-0-2 in Cincinnati’s last 6 home games with DeSclafani on the hill — and the Reds have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with him facing the Pirates. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 6.58 ERA over their last seven games. Pittsburgh is also swinging hot bats as they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .292 batting average with a .332 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .820. The Pirates have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams in this afternoon Getaway Game. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (901) and the Cincinnati Reds (902) listing both starting pitchers Steven Brault and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (36-18) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-5 score over New York (26-27).

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets bullpen surrendered seven runs in their last loss yesterday on Memorial Day. New York has then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least four runs. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Mets have played 18 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. They give the ball to Matz who is 3-3 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bearish on the left-handed knuckleballer with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.06 and 4.00 moving forward. Matz has been very good at home where he owns a 1.50 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 — but those numbers rise to a 6.10 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Matz had a 3.59 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 at home but a 4.46 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 5-2-1 in New York’s last 8 road games with Matz facing a team with a winning record. The Over is also 9-2-1 in the Mets’ last 12 games when Matz is pitching on four days rest. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .306 batting average along with a .392 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .898 over that span. Los Angeles is also scoring a healthy 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .277 batting average, .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .837. The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Los Angeles has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers banged out 17 hits yesterday — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after producing at least 17 hits in their last game. They counter with Hill who is 1-1 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving as his SIERA and xFIP project a rise in his ERA to 3.28 and 3.29 respectively based on his peripheral numbers. The left-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 3.27 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in two starts. Last year, Hill had a 3.69 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 at home with all those numbers improving to a 3.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .193 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. Los Angeles has played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total with Hill pitching on the road. And while Hill comes off a nice outing where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work at Tampa Bay, the Over is 16-4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 21 games with Hill following up a Quality Start. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .260 batting average, .314 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .822 in those games. New York has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 7 of their last 8 meetings in Los Angeles Over the Total. Expect another high-scoring game. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (916) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Indians (915) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Jefry Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Boston (28-25) enters this series coming off a 4-1 win in Houston yesterday. Cleveland (26-26) has lost six of their last seven games after losing at home to Tampa Bay yesterday by a 6-2 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has not scored more than four runs in their last three games — and they have won 16 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than four runs in three strong contests. Now the Red Sox return back home after playing their last seven games on the road. Boston has won 7 of their last 8 home games when favored in the -151 to -200 price range. The Red Sox have also won 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They give the ball to Porcello who is 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in ten starts this season. The right-hander comes off a strong outing where he allowed only one run in 6 innings of work in Toronto. Boston has won 4 straight games with Porcello looking to follow up a Quality Start. After a slow start, the former Cy Young Award winner has found his form as he has a 3-1 record along with a 2.72 ERA over his last six starts. Porcello has also been more effective at home where he owns a 3.41 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in five starts as compared to his 5.76 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .297 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Porcello had a 1.07 WHIP and .226 opponent’s batting average at home but a 1.27 WHIP and .253 opponent’s batting average on the road. He should thrive against this Indians team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .193 batting average along with a .294 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .626 over that span. Cleveland is also scoring just 3.5 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .213 batting average, 0.287 On-Base Percentage, and .653 OPS this season. The Indians have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Indians have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They also have lost 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new series. They counter with Rodriguez who is 1-4 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in six starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander as both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.14 and 4.96 moving forward. Rodriguez has also been less effective in day games where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.24 and 1.47 marks. Cleveland has lost 3 of their last 4 games with Rodriguez starting in the month of May. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .271 batting average along with a .339 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .828 over that span. Boston has also won 6 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: With the money-line price for the Red Sox over my -150 threshold, I would only consider taking Boston minus the -1.5 Run-Line. While the above team trends do not take into account the -1.5 runs we will be laying, the Red Sox are supported by a Run-Line specific angle that has been 63% effective over the last five seasons. Boston is scoring 5.2 Runs-Per-Game — and American League teams that average at least 4.9 Runs-Per-Game have covered the 1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the +115 to +160 range) in 45 of the last 71 games when playing on a Monday. 25* MLB ESPN Run-Line of the Month with the Boston Red Sox (916) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Indians (915) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Jefry Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (962) versus the Atlanta Braves (961) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (26-25) rallied from a 3-2 deficit by scoring four runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to pull out a 6-3 victory yesterday. The loss snapped the Atlanta (29-24) three-game winning streak.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis’ bullpen blew a 2-1 lead in the top of the 7th inning in the game — but the Cardinals have then won 18 of their last 25 games after a game where they a save was blown. This team has been tough to beat at home where they have won 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. St. Louis has also won 28 of their last 42 home games with the Total set at 9 to 9.5. And in their last 19 games when favored in the -100 to -150 price range, the Cardinals have now 15 of these games. They give the ball to Flaherty who is 4-3 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an improvement in his ERA to 4.10 and 3.93 marks respectively based on his current peripheral numbers. Flaherty has not allowed more than three runs in each of his last five starts. The right-hander has also been more effective at home where he owns a 2.48 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in five starts as compared to his ugly 6.20 ERA on the road along with a 1.62 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 2.93 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home as compared to his 3.67 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP on the road. Flaherty also enjoys a 2.51 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in five starts at night this season. St. Louis has won 4 of their last 5 games with Flaherty pitching at night. He faces a slumping Braves lineup that is hitting only .232 over their last seven games with a .288 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .702 over that span. Atlanta ends their seven-game road trip tonight — and they ave last 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least their previous five games on the road. The Braves have also lost 11 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Atlanta has also lost 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Teheran who is 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in eleven starts. The sabermetrics call for regression for Teheran with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.61 and 4.59 moving forward this season. The right-hander has been less effective on the road where he has a 4.46 ERA in seven starts as compared to his 2.35 ERA when pitching at home. The Braves have lost 3 of their last 4 road games with Teheran pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals conclude their five-game homestand tonight — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games after playing at least their previous three games at home. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (962) versus the Atlanta Braves (961) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Kansas City Royals (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Danny Duffy. THE SITUATION: New York (34-17) has won seven straight games in a row after sweeping yesterday’s double-header — winning Game One by a 7-3 score before winning the nightcap by a 6-5 score. Kansas City (17-34) has lost three straight games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win on the road. New York has seen the Over go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Yankees have now seen the Over go 33-11-3 in their last 47 games on the road — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Additionally, New York has played 10 straight games Over the Total on the road as a favorite priced at -125 or higher. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total in the third game of a series. They give the ball to German who is 9-1 with a 2.60 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.91 and 3.82 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road either as he has a 1.69 ERA with a .177 opponent’s batting average at home but a 3.45 ERA with a .193 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where German had a 5.20 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average at home with all those numbers rising to a 5.98 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 6-0-1 in New York’s last 7 games on the road with German on the hill. And while the Yankees’ bullpen has pitched 14 innings over their last three games, New York has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after their bullpen has pitched at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Royals’ last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has seen the Over go 21-10-3 in their last 34 games after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Over is 12-5-3 in the Royals’ last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +150. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in Kansas City’s last 5 games at home — and the Over is 15-5-2 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Duffy who is 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.88 and 4.25 moving forward. The left-hander has been less effective at home as well where he owns a 4.50 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in three starts as compared to his 2.13 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average of .239 on the road. Duffy struggled at home last year as well where he was saddled with a 6.31 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .276 opponent’s batting average of .276 as compared to his 3.94 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average at home. The Royals have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Duffy on the hill. And while he comes off a strong effort where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work in Los Angeles against the Angels, KC has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when Duffy is pitching after an outing where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces the Bronx Bombers’ offensive juggernaut that is scoring 8.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with .301 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .951 over that span. The Yankees are scoring 6.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-0-1 in New York’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams when playing in Kansas City. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Kansas City Royals (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Danny Duffy. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (922) versus the Boston Red Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers Brad Peacock and David Price. THE SITUATION: Houston (34-18) won the opening game of this series over Boston (27-24) last night by a 4-3 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston should build off their momentum as they have won 46 of their last 65 games after a victory — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after a win by just one run. And while the Astros managed only four hits last night, they have then won 28 of their last 37 games after a win by at least four runs. Houston is tough to defeat at home in Minute Maid Park where they are 19-6 this season with an average winning margin of +1.7 Runs-Per-Game. The Astros have won 35 of their last 51 games at home — and they have won eight of their last eleven home games against teams with a winning record. Houston has also won 5 of their last 7 home games when favored in the -100 to -150 price range. Additionally, the Astros have won 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give then ball to Peacock who is 5-2 with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.89 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in four starts. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he owned a 3.44 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and .221 opponent’s batting average at home but a 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average on the road. Houston has won 6 of their last 7 home games with Peacock on the hill. Boston’s bullpen pitched two scoreless innings last night in relief of Chris Sale — but they have lost 12 of their last 19 games after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run. This is the Red Sox’s sixth road game in a row — and they have lost 10 of their last 16 games after playing at least their last four games on the road. Boston has also lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 9 games when priced in the +/- 125 price range, the Red Sox have lost 6 of these games. They counter with Price who is 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in seven starts this year. Only two of those starts have been at home where Price enjoys a 1.38 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .159. But in his five starts on the road, the left-hander sees his ERA rise to a 4.18 mark along with a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252. Price was more effective at home in Fenway Park last year as well where he had a 2.98 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and .213 opponent’s batting average but a 4.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .249 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Red Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Price pitching on grass — and they have lost 3 straight games with Price pitching at night. The veteran’s decline in velocity betrays his high-profile performances in the postseason last year — increasing his perceived value by the betting public. He faces an Astros lineup that scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .290 batting average along with a .366 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .870.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has won 23 of their last 32 games against teams using a left-handed starting pitcher. The Astros have also won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the money-line on the Houston Astros (922) versus the Boston Red Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers Brad Peacock and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:15 PM ET, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (915) versus the Kansas City Royals (916) listing both starting pitchers J.A. Happ and Jakob Junis. THE SITUATION: New York (32-17) has won five straight games — as well as nine of their last ten contests — with their 6-5 win on Thursday. Kansas City (17-32) has lost five of their last seven games after a 10-3 loss in St. Louis on Wednesday. This afternoon game is a make-up from last night’s game that was postponed. Chad Green was set to be the opener in that game but Happ takes his spot today with him pitching with his normal four days of rest.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 19 of their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Yankees have also won a decisive 52 of their last 67 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. New York has also won 17 of their last 22 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. The Bronx Bombers enjoyed a 5-1 lead entering the bottom of the eighth inning before their bullpen allowed four runs which tied the game. New York won the game by scoring in the top of the ninth — and they have won 19 of their last 22 games after a game where their bullpen blew a save. Happ is 3-3 this season in ten starts with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 4.09 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in four starts as compared to his 5.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .277 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Happ had a 2.61 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .204 batting average on the road as compared to his 4.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .237 opponent’s batting average when at home. He was outstanding after being traded from the Blue Jays to the Yankees as he posted a 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in eleven starts for the Bronx Bombers. New York has won 4 straight games with Happ making the start on the road. Happ should have success facing this Royals team that has lost 25 of their last 35 games against left-handed starting pitchers. He will be supported by a New York bullpen that has a 3.41 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP over the last seven games even with their disappointing effort yesterday. The Yankees have won 5 straight games on the road — and they have also won 36 of their last 51 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Bronx Bombers have also won 36 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games when favored priced at -100 to -150 range. Kansas City (17-32) has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least six runs. And while the Royals had won their two previous games before losing on Wednesday, they have lost 8 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. KC returns home where they have lost 4 of their last 5 games — and they have lost 4 straight home games with the Total set at 10 or higher. The Royals have also lost 21 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have lost 46 of their last 56 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% overall. They counter with Junis who is 3-5 with a 5.69 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 6.08 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 in five starts as compared to his 5.34 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .279 opponent’s batting average of .279. Kansas City has lost 13 of their last 18 games with Junis facing a team with a winning record — and they have lost seven of their last ten home games in that situation. Junis faces a Yankees team that is 15-7 on the road while scoring 6.2 Runs-Per-Game with a .269 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .827 in those games. New York has also scored 7.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .286 batting average along with a .361 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .907 over that span.

FINAL TAKE: The Yankees swept the three-game series between these two teams in April. Kansas City has lost 19 of their last 26 games when playing with at least double-revenge. New York has also won 6 of their last 8 games with the Royals when playing in Kansas City. 25* MLB American League Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (915) versus the Kansas City Royals (916) listing both starting pitchers J.A. Happ and Jakob Junis. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Mets (902) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (901) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Stephen Strasburg. THE SITUATION: New York (23-25) looks to sweep this four-game series this afternoon after winning Game Three of this series yesterday by a 6-1 score. Washington (19-30) has lost four straight contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win. The Mets have also won 11 of their last 17 games after winning three straight games against a fellow NL East rival. New York has now won 6 straight games at home in Citi Field — and they have won 5 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Matz who is 3-3 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in eight starts. The left-hander knuckleballer has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.50 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .169 in three starts. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where Matz had a 3.59 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 at home as compared to his 4.46 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. New York has won 5 straight games at home with Matz on the hill. He faces a Nationals team that is hitting only .230 on the road with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .678. Washington has lost 9 of their last 13 games against left-handed starting pitchers. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Nationals have also lost 14 of their last 21 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Washington has lost 4 straight games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 35 games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range, the Nationals have lost 22 of these contests. They counter with Strasburg who is 4-3 with a 3.32 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective when pitching on the road. While Strasburg has a 3.21 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP at home, he sees those numbers rise to a 3.45 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP in five starts on the road. Perhaps the bigger problem for Strasburg is that he has not pitched 7 full innings in seven of his ten starts this season. While that is not really a slight on him, it does likely mean that the Nationals bullpen who will be asked to pitch at least 2 innings this afternoon. The Washington bullpen is last in MLB with a 6.89 ERA — and that group has a 10.25 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP over their last seven games. Strasburg and this bullpen will be facing a Mets team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game at home while hitting .253 with a .335 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .768. New York has won 5 straight home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has lost 6 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they scored no more than one run. And because they have an On-Base Percentage of .307 for the season, the Nationals fall into a historical “play-against” angle that has been 75% effective since 1997. Road favorites with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or higher with an On-Base Percentage no higher than .310 have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line (when that prop is priced in the -160 to +115 price range) in 59 of these last 79 situations where these conditions applied. With the Mets’ +1.5 Run-Line priced below my -150 threshold, taking the valuable +1.5 Run-Line (especially against the bad Nats’ bullpen) is the preferable play to taking the Mets as a money-line dog. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the New York Mets (902) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (901) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (979) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (980) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Ryan Stanek (as their opener). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (32-17) has won the first two games of this series — as well as six of their last seven games — with their 7-3 victory over the Rays in the opening game of this two-game series. Tampa Bay (27-18) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. The Dodgers have not allowed more than four runs in seven straight games — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. Additionally, Los Angeles has won 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. They have also won 5 of their last 7 games on the road. Furthermore, the Dodgers have won 20 of their last 29 games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range — and this includes them covering the point spread in eight of the last twelve situations where they were playing on the road. They give the ball to Hill who is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in four starts this season after starting the season on the disabled list. The left-hander has been better on the road where he has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in two starts. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where he had a 3.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .193 opponent’s batting average on the road as compared to his 3.69 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average at home. The Dodgers have won 6 straight road games with Hill on the mound. The veteran comes off a strong effort where he allowed only two hits and no runs while striking out 10 batters on the road in Cincinnati. Los Angeles has won 17 of their last 22 games with Hill following up a Quality Start. He faces a Rays team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .224 batting average along with a .280 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .644. Tampa Bay has lost 4 of their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rays have lost 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 15 of their last 21 home games in Interleague play when playing a team with a winning record. They counter with Stanek as their “opener” for this contest. Handicapping these increasingly prevalent MLB games where openers are employed is a pain in the proverbial arse — but, the challenge represents an opportunity to find more of an edge against the books (and the betting public in the market that helps set the final line). Stanek is 0-1 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this season that needs to be taken with a grain of salt since he will only pitch 1 or 2 innings before being taken out. With these openers, I want to look for red flags regarding that pitcher surrendering a handful of runs rather than being satisfied that the individual in question will pitch an inning or two of scoreless ball. The deeper sabermetrics suggest that Stanek is overachieving given his SIERA and xFIP of 4.03 and 4.38 moving forward. The Rays have lost 7 of their last 11 games with Stanek opening as a money-line underdog priced at +100 to +150. While the initial reports this week suggested that Jalen Beeks would then pitch the middle innings tonight, the fact that the lefty pitched 3 innings last night likely removes that possibility. Instead, I suspect that it will Yonny Chirinos to then take over with his 5-1 record along with a 3.26 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. He has pitched 4 2/3 and 4 innings in his last two appearances that were also following up Stanek opening the game. But Chirinos’ SIERA and XFIP project an ERA of 4.24 and 4.34 moving forward. With Stanek and Chirinos both right-handed pitchers, we can put some stock in the Dodgers’ numbers against righties since that will likely consist of at least 5 innings of this game. Led by Cody Bellinger’s career year swinging from the left side of the plate, Los Angeles is clobbering right-handed pitching by averaging 5.5 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers (which is roughly applicable for this situation) along with a .261 batting average, .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .815. The Dodgers have won 36 of their last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers. And while both Stanek and Chirinos have WHIPs of 1.07 and 0.91 this season, LA has won 41 of their last 57 games against teams using starting pitchers with a WHIP no higher than 1.15 (and I consider this situation applicable). The Rays’ bullpen is also struggling as of late as they have a 5.35 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP over their last seven games.

FINAL TAKE: Frankly, successful handicapping consists of discerning what data is relevant and what data is irrelevant as evidence for the unique situation at hand. The emerging tactic of baseball managers to use openers pitching just one or two innings presents a new challenge for those of us that attempt to find value in the battle between starting pitchers. In this instance, the three-headed monster of Stanek, Chirinos, and then the rest of the Rays’ bullpen looks overvalued — and they are facing one of the best teams in baseball in the Dodgers who are not often favored below my -150 money-line price threshold. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (979) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (980) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Ryan Stanek (as their opener). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (954) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (953) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Merrill Kelly. THE SITUATION: San Diego (25-24) has won the first two games of this series with their 3-2 win over the Diamondbacks yesterday. Arizona (25-24) has now lost four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego has now 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Padres have also won 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. And in their last 17 games played in the afternoon, San Diego has won 12 of these contests. They give the ball to Lauer who is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in nine starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics suggest that the left-hander should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.62 and 4.70 moving forward. Lauer has also been much better at home in Petco Park where he owns a 3.04 ERA with a 1.35 WIP in five starts as compared to his 8.24 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP when pitching on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Lauer had a 3.99 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP at home but a 4.73 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP on the road. Lauer has also been quite good in his three day starts this season where he has compiled a 2.70 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .233. The Padres have won 4 of their last 5 games with Lauer facing a team with a winning record. He should fare well against this slumping Diamondbacks team that has is batting only .227 over their last seven games with a .306 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .729. Arizona has lost 5 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks have also lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring no more two runs in their last game. Arizona has now lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have also lost 15 of their last 21 third games of a series. They counter with Kelly who is 4-4 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in nine starts. The 30-year old rookie right-hander has been tough at home where he has a 2.64 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in five starts — but he sees those numbers skyrocket to a 6.53 ERA with a 1.84 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 on the road. The sabermetrics are not bullish either with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting regression with his ERA rising to 4.85 and 4.76 marks respectively moving forward. Kelly will be supported by a bullpen that has been rocked on the road with a 4.83 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP this season. The Padres have won 9 of their last 13 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has now lost 6 of their last 7 meetings with San Diego. Look for Lauer to outpitch Kelly this afternoon. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Month with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (954) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (953) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Merrill Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday. we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Jeremy Hellickson. THE SITUATION: Washington (18-26) has won three of the last four games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 5-2 score. Chicago (26-16) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have seen the Over go 15-7-1 in their last 23 third games of a series. The Over is a decisive 30-14-3 in their last 47 games at home — and the Over is also 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Washington has also played 36 of their last 57 home games Over the Total when playing at night. They give the ball to Hellickson who is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 8.04 and 1.79 marks — and his opponents are hitting .299 when he is pitching in Washington. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Hellickson had a 4.50 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .260 at home as compared to his 3.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .218 opponent’s batting average when he was pitching on the road. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 home games with Hellickson on the hill — and Washington has played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Hellickson pitching when priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .274 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .833. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Cubs have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road with the number set in that 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Hendricks who is 3-4 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in eight starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not nearly as encouraging as those frontline numbers with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.13 and 3.86 respectively moving forward. And while the right-hander has been outstanding at home in Wrigley Field where he has a 0.62 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .180, those numbers skyrocket to a 5.91 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .330 on the road in four starts.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing in Washington. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Jeremy Hellickson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (957) versus the Washington Nationals (958) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Stephen Strasburg. THE SITUATION: Chicago (26-16) has won four of their last five games with their 14-6 win over Washington (18-26) in the first game of this series last night. The Nationals have lost fifteen of their last twenty-two games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 10 of their last 13 games after a victory. The Cubs have also won 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Chicago has won 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Lester who is 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in seven starts this year. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns an 0.89 WHIP with a .164 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 1.32 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average at home. Lester’s disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where he had a 2.87 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP on the road as compared to his 3.71 ERA and 1.37 WHIP when pitching at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have won 18 of their last 22 road games with Lester facing a team with a losing record. Chicago has also won 16 of their last 20 games with Lester pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Lester has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts spanning 19 2/3 innings of work while striking out 20 batters during that span. The Cubs have won 13 of their last 15 games when Lester is on the mound after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight games. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests while hitting just .226 with a .283 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .628 over that span. Washington (18-26) has lost 9 of their last 12 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Nationals have lost 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 15 of their last 22 home games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Washington has also lost 17 of their last 25 games played at night. Furthermore, the Nationals have lost 11 of their last 17 home games when priced at least as a -110 favorite. They also have lost 20 of their last 32 games wit hate Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Strasburg who is 3-3 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has been less effective at home where he has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .237 as compared in four starts as opposed to his 3.5 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .188 opponent’s batting average on the road. Strasburg had a 5.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .252 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average on the road. Washington has lost 3 of their last 4 home games with Strasburg on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that has won 20 of their last 27 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .279 batting average along with a .352 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .849. While both these starting pitchers are performing quite well right now, the Cubs superior offense should make the difference in this game which makes them an intriguing underdog tonight. 25* MLB Saturday Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (957) versus the Washington Nationals (958) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) versus the Cincinnati Reds (906) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (29-16) has won three straight games — and seven of their last nine contests — with their 2-0 victory against San Diego on Wednesday. Cincinnati (20-24) has won their last two games with their 4-2 win over the Cubs on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles has won 17 of their last 25 games after a victory — and they have won 22 of their last 28 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Dodgers have won 23 of their last 30 games are not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than one run in their last game. And Los Angeles has won 40 of their last 59 games after an off day. The Dodgers’ bullpen has not allowed an earned run in three straight contests — and they have then won 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing an earned run in their last game while also winning 19 of their last 28 games after not giving up an earned run in three straight games. They give the ball to Hill who is 0-1 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in three starts this season after starting the season on the disabled list with a knee injury. Hill allowed three runs after the first four batters in his last start which was at home against the Nationals — but he settled down to complete 5 innings without giving up any more runs. The left-hander tends to give up runs in the first-inning before settling down — but he did conclude last season by not allowing a run in the first inning in three of his last four starts on the road. Hill was 11-5 last year with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP while being more effective on the road with a 3.63 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193. When the 39-year old is healthy (and not dealing with blisters), he is a nasty customer for opposing hitters. The Dodgers have won 12 of their last 18 road games with Hill on the mound favored by at least a -125 price. He faces a Cincinnati team that has lost 9 of their last 13 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Reds have also lost 21 of their last 30 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Cincinnati has lost 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Reds have also lost 18 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They have also lost 15 of their last 21 games when priced in the +/- 125 range. Cincinnati stays at home in the Great American Ballpark where they have lost 4 of their last 5 games as the underdog. They counter with DeSclafani who is 2-1 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.80 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP in three starts. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 5.02 ERA with a .267 opponent’s batting average at home which was both a bit worse than his 4.78 ERA and .265 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. DeSclafani entered this season with a mandate to improve his location, especially against left-handed hitters. He had a 19.8% Fly Ball-to-Home Run ratio last year which translated into 24 home runs allowed in 115 innings of work. Tony Disco has surrendered 7 home runs in 41 innings of work so giving up the long ball remains an issue — and the Great American Ballpark has a short right field fence (370 feet in right-center to 325 feet down the line) which explains why he tends to be not as effective in that environment. Cincinnati has lost 4 of their last 5 games at home with DeSclafani on the hill. He faces a powerful Dodgers lineup that is scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .264 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .825. Los Angeles has also won 20 of their last 29 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers swept the three-game series these teams had in mid-April. The Reds have lost a decisive 50 of their last 71 games when playing with at least double-revenge. 25* MLB Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) versus the Cincinnati Reds (906) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (24-18) has lost two straight games after their 4-1 loss in Chicago last night against the Cubs. Philadelphia (23-16) has won two straight games with their 6-1 victory in Kansas City yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 11 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Nola who is 3-0 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home this season given his 3.77 ERA in five starts. Nola had a 2.34 ERA at home last year. After a slow start, Nola has looked like the pitcher who concluded the year with a 2.37 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP in thirty-three starts. Over his last four starts, Nola has a 2.25 ERA while striking out 26 batters in 24 innings of work over that span. The Phillies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total with Nola pitching as a favorite priced at least at -150. The Under is also 18-5-2 in Philadelphia’s last 25 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. He faces a Brewers team that is hitting just .218 on the road with a .300 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666 — and their slugger, Ryan Braun, is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury. Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss. The Brewers gave up more than three runs for the first time in nine games last night — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. And while Milwaukee’s bullpen has thrown 13 1/3 innings over their last three games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after their pen combined to throw at least 13 innings in their last three games. The Brewers stay on the road where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total. Milwaukee has also played 27 of their last 35 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The counter with Peralta who is 2-1 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in six games. After Peralta was used after an opener in his last outing against Washington where he allowed only three hits and no runs in 5 innings of work, manager Craig Counsell will have him start in the first inning tonight. He has been better on the road where he has a 0.97 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Peralta pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. The Under is 15-5-1 in the Phillies’ last 21 games when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Under is also 13-3-1 in Philadelphia’s last 17games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is hitting only .225 over their last seven games with a .312 On-Batting Average and an OPS of .638 over that span. Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* MLB Monday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (908) versus the Atlanta Braves (907) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Kevin Gausman. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (19-20) won the opening game of this series last night over Arizona (22-17) by a 2-1 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has won 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after a contest where no more than three combined runs were scored. The Diamondbacks are underdogs in this game because they are sending out their 30-year old rookie right-hander who is 3-3 with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in seven starts. Kelly has been much better at home where he owns a 2.95 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in three starts as opposed to his 6.53 ERA with a 1.84 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286. He comes off a disappointing outing where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 4 innings of work at Tampa Bay on Monday. Kelly should be focused to redeem himself tonight after failing to complete five full innings of work — and he is facing a slumping Braves’ lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .209 batting average along with a .253 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .600 over that span. Arizona is tough to beat at home even as underdogs as they have won 13 of their last 20 home games as a money-line dog. The Diamondbacks have also won 14 of their last 21 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. Atlanta has lost 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing one run or less in their last contest. The Braves have also lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Atlanta is now playing their ninth game in a row on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after playing at least their last four games on the road. The Braves have also lost 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gausman who is 1-3 with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in seven starts. The right-hander has struggled in his last four starts where he has surrendered fourteen earned runs in 16 innings of work. Gausman has also struggled on the road where he has a 7.15 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .337 in three starts as compared to his 4.01 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and .171 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. Gausman’s teams have lost 4 of their last 5 games on road with him making the start — and his teams have lost 19 of their last 28 road games with him pitching as a favorite priced in the -110 to -150 price range.

FINAL TAKE: Despite winning last night, Atlanta has only won once in their last five meetings with the Diamondbacks. Arizona offers a very intriguing opportunity as a home underdog. 25* MLB National League Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (908) versus the Atlanta Braves (907) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Kevin Gausman. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (857) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (858) listen both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and German Marquez. THE SITUATION: San Diego (21-17) enters this series having won three of their last four games with their 3-2 win over the New York Mets on Wednesday. Colorado (17-20) had lost three of their last four games before they defeated San Francisco yesterday by a 12-11 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego left only three runners on base in their victory over the Mets — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after not leaving more than three runners on base in their last game. The Padres have also won 13 of their last 16 games after an off day — and they have won 15 of their last 22 opening games to a new series. Additionally, San Diego has won 9 of their last 13 road games even as a money-line underdog. The Padres are an impressive 11-6 away from Petco Field this season. They give the ball to Lauer who is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in seven starts this season. The left-hander has been a bit more effective on the road this year where he has a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in three starts as compared to his 1.38 WHIP and .277 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. San Diego has won 4 of their last 5 road games with Lauer on the hill — and they have also won 6 of their last 7 games with Lauer making the start in the opening game of a new series. He faces a Rockies team that has lost 6 of their last 7 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has lost 4 straight games after a victory by two runs or less. The Rockies have also 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 games after scoring at least 12 runs in their last contest. Colorado has allowed at least six runs in each of their last six games with their opponents clubbing at least ten runs in four of those contests. The Rockies have lost 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least seven runs in two straight games. They counter with Marquez who is 3-2 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has been outstanding away from Coors Field where he enjoys a 1.55 ERA with a 0.62 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .125 — but he has been saddled with a 5.87 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and .330 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Marquez had a 2.95 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .203 on the road but a 4.74 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 when pitching at home. Colorado has lost 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 home games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road. Marquez will be supported by a shaky Rockies’ bullpen as of late as that group has a 7.16 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP over their last seven games. The Colorado bullpen also has a 5.62 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP when pitching at home. Marquez and the Rockies’ bullpen faces a Padres team buoyed by the Manny Machado offseason acquisition that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .269 batting average along with a .318 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .818 over that span. San Diego has also won 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has won the last four meetings between these two teams after sweeping a two-game series in April. The Padres have won 15 of their last 23 games when playing with double-revenge. San Diego is a live dog in this situation — but I love taking the very valuable +1.5 Run-Line in these situations when that proposition is priced at no higher than -150 (as it is in this situation). 25* MLB National League West Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the San Diego Padres (857) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (858) listen both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and German Marquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (978) versus the Cleveland Indians (977) listen both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Carlos Carrasco. THE SITUATION: Houston (16-11) won the third game of this series yesterday by a 4-3 score over Cleveland (15-11).

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won a decisive 58 of their last 75 games after a victory — and they have also won 6 of their last 7 games after a win by two runs or less. The Astros have also won 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Houston is 9-3 at home this season — and they have won 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Miley who is 1-2 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in five starts this season. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.31 ERA along with a 0.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .167 in two starts as compared to his 4.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .277 opponent’s batting average in three starts on the road. Miley’s teams have won 14 of their last 19 games with Miley pitching at night. Miley’s teams have also won 14 of their last 21 games when he is pitching as a money-line priced in the -110 to -150 price range. He faces an Indians team that has lost 14 of their last 20 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game on the road while hitting just .201 batting average along with a .280 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .619. They counter with Carrasco who is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in five starts this year. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 9.00 ERA with a 1.92 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .365 in three starts as opposed to his 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and an opponent’s average of .229 in his first two home starts. The Indians have lost 6 of their last 8 road games with Carrasco on the hill — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Carrasco pitching against a team with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Miley is an underrated starting pitcher who had a 2.57 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP for the Brewers last year — and he did not allow more than three earned runs in any of sixteen starts last season. The better Astros offense should make the difference tonight. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Houston Astros (978) versus the Cleveland Indians (977) listen both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Carlos Carrasco. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Max Fried. THE SITUATION: Colorado (11-14) enters this series having won eight of their last ten games with their 9-1 victory over Washington on Wednesday. Atlanta (12-11) has lost two of their last three games after a 4-2 loss at Cincinnati yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Under is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after an off day. Now this team goes on the road where the Under is 22-6-3 in their last 31 games. They give the ball to Senzatela who is 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in two starts this season — and he has pitched at least 6 innings in both those starts. The 24-year old right-hander was 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP last season — but he was more effective away from Coors Field where he saw his ERA and WHIP drop to 4.01 and 1.11 marks while posting an impressive .220 opponent’s batting average. In his one start on the road this year, Senzatela allowed only 1 earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work at San Diego. Colorado has played 8 straight road games Under the Total with Senzatela on the hill. He faces a Braves team that has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss. Now the Braves return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Atlanta has also played 24 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Fried who has been outstanding so far this season with a 3-0 record along with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in four starts. Two of those starts were at home where he sported a 0.75 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .186 as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average when on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where the left-hander had a 2.40 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 15 innings at home as compared to his 3.38 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in 18 2/3 innings on the road. I pay close attention to sample sizes — but I feel comfortable with Fried’s career 2.80 ERA along with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 34 2/3 innings of work when pitching at his Sun Trust Field in Atlanta. Fried faces a Rockies team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .199 batting average along with a .242 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .558 this year. The Under is 40-19-2 in Colorado’s last 61 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 19-7-2 in their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Rockies are looking to avenge a 7-1 loss at home as a small money-line favorite against the Braves back on April 9th. Colorado has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss at home. Lastly, these two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in Atlanta Under the Total. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Max Fried. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (929) and the Cleveland Indians (930) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (10-10) snapped a four-game losing streak yesterday by defeating Cleveland (12-8) by an 8-7 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a win. The Atlanta bullpen has been busy as of late as they have pitched 15 combined innings over their last three games — and they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after pitching at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. They send out Fried who is 2-0 with an 0.92 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP so far this season. While those numbers look great, the fact that the left-hander is striking out only 5.5 batters per 9 innings of work is of concern. Both his SIERA and xFIP project significant regression with those numbers projecting an ERA of 4.15 and 3.80 moving forward. Fried was more effective at home last year where he had a 2.40 ERA with a 1.287 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 — but those numbers rose to a 3.38 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 when pitching on the road. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Fried on the hill. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Over is 22-7-2 in the Braves’ last 31 games against teams with a winning record. Fried faces an Indians team that scores 5.0 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Cleveland (12-8) has played 4 of their last 5 games in Interleague play Over the Total. The Indians’ bullpen has been roughed up as of late after they blew the save yesterday by surrendering 6 runs in 2 2/3 innings of work. Cleveland’s pen has an 8.25 ERA over their last five games — and they have lost 23 of their last 32 games when their bullpen has a 6.50 ERA or worse over their last five contests. They counter with Bieber who is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP so far this season. But his SIERA and xFIP project a decline in those numbers as they project an ERA of 3.78 and 3.99 respectively moving forward. Bieber was not as effective when pitching at home last year where he had a 5.88 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .328 as compared to his 3.56 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 when on the road. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Bieber on the bump after a game where they allowed at least five runs. Cleveland has also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They face a hot Braves lineup that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last five games with a .261 batting average along with an On-Base Percentage of .353 and an OPS of .819. Atlanta also scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 15-3-4 in the Indians’ last 22 home games when facing left-handed starting pitchers. The sample size regarding the number of starts a pitcher has made with his team is an important factor before I feel comfortable investing in April baseball action. With both these pitchers with their same team from last year — and with both with a growing set of 2019 data that says they are overachieving relative to their frontline ERA and WHIP numbers — let’s attack this early season opportunity. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (929) and the Cleveland Indians (930) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) versus the San Francisco Giants (955) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-6) won the opening game of this series last night with their 4-1 victory over the Giants (8-13).

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Pittsburgh has won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. The Pirates have also won 5 straight games at home — and they have won 21 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the toad. They give the ball to their ace in Taillon who is 0-2 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in four starts this season. The right-hander comes off a start where he allowed three runs in 6 innings of work at Washington. This is Taillon’s just second start at home this year after allowing only one earned run in 7 innings of work against St. Louis. I am comfortable looking at Taillon’s numbers last year since he was wearing a Pirates’ uniform (as opposed to many of the starting pitchers in MLB who moved teams in the offseason). Taillon had a 14-10 record last year with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP — and he had a 1.13 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .242 at home as compared to his 1.21 WHIP and .249 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Pittsburgh has won 5 of their last 6 home games with Taillon on the hill. He should thrive against this Giants team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game while batting .190 with a .249 On-Base Percentage and an opponent’s OPS of .560 this season when facing right-handed pitchers. San Francisco has lost 20 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 14 of their last 19 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Giants have lost 24 of their last 33 games after a loss — and they have also lost 24 of their last 31 games on the road. They counter with Holland who is 1-2 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season after allowing four earned runs in 6 innings of work in his last start against the Rockies. I am comfortable using Holland’s numbers last year as well since he was the San Fran rotation where he finished with a 7-9 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. But the left-handed saw those numbers rise to a 3.63 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP when he was pitching on the road. The Giants have lost 4 straight road games with Holland facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Pirates team that has won 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: It has been a slow start to our MLB campaign as I have just not trusted the data regarding the slate of starting pitching — or, when I do find the sample size data large enough and relevant, the evidence was conflicted. This is a strong play that has finally popped. 25* MLB Saturday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) versus the San Francisco Giants (955) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: Boston (118-57) seized a 3-1 lead in the World Series last night with their come-from-behind 9-6 victory over the Dodgers.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have now played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. And while Boston has just a .219 batting average over their last five games in these playoffs, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a five-game span where they did not have better than a .225 batting average clip. This team is still scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs even after that recent slide. They give the ball to Price who was 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in thirty regular season starts. The left-hander was much better at home in Fenway Park where he had a 2.98 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 — but those numbers spike to a 4.31 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .249 when pitching on the road. Price also had a 3.89 ERA in his twenty-one regular season starts at night. Additionally, many of Price’s notorious struggles in the playoffs have been on the road given his career 6.02 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273. Los Angeles (100-78) had their bullpen surrender 8 runs in just three innings of work after that group logged-in eleven innings in Friday night’s 18 inning marathon. The Dodgers have played 22 of their last 36 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. Los Angeles has also now played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against American League teams with a winning record. They counter with their ace Kershaw who only pitched 4 innings while giving up 5 earned runs in his Game One start against the Red Sox in the World Series. The lefty has a 4.60 ERA in the playoffs in his career — and the Dodgers have played 7 of their last 11 games in the playoffs Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: With the Dodgers playing with desperation — but also a tired bullpen — expect another high-scoring game. Price is pitching on short rest — and the Boston bullpen will be looking forward to (at least) one day off tomorrow. 25* MLB Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (907) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (100-77) survived last night’s marathon contest that needed 18 innings to resolve before they scored to pull out a 3-2 victory. They are now down 2-1 in this series but avoided tonight’s game being a potential elimination game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston had now won six straight games in these playoffs before losing last night. The Red Sox have bounced-back to win 34 of their last 50 games after a loss. They also have won 11 of their last 12 fourth games of a series. And they have won 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Recovering from last night’s physical and mental exhaustion will be a challenge for both teams tonight. Boston has won 14 of their last 17 games in the World Series which helps give them institutional knowledge regarding how to handle this situation. Their bullpen logged in 12 1/3 innings last night — but they have won 35 of their last 46 games after a game where their bullpen pitched at least 9 innings. Furthermore, the Red Sox have won 18 of their last 23 games against National League opponents. And perhaps most stunning, this Boston team has pulled the upset to win 12 of their last 18 games on the road when priced as an underdog at least at +150. After indications were that manager Alex Cora was going to tap Drew Pomeranz as tonight’s starting pitcher, he made the wise decision to instead give the ball to Rodriguez despite him pitching 1/3 of an inning last night. I just don’t see that as a big deal — and David Price was quite effective making a start after making an appearance out of the bullpen the night before in their last series against the Astros. Rodriguez enjoyed a solid season with a 13-5 record with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. The left-hander was more effective on the road where he had a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 as compared to his 1.32 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Red Sox have won 10 of their last 11 road games with Rodriguez on the hill. He should fare well against this slumping Dodgers’ team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs with a .208 batting average along with a .297 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .638. Los Angeles may also get psyched out with a facing another left-hander starting pitcher since it will likely compel manager Dave Roberts to bench his left-handed bats of Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, and last night’s hero Max Muncy. The Dodgers have still lost 4 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They counter with Hill who was 11-5 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP during the regular season. The veteran left-hander was not as effective at home where he saw his ERA rise to a 3.69 mark with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 as compared to his 3.63 ERA when on the road with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193. The Red Sox have won 5 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The value of the Run-Line was in full display last night as it bought us insurance for the Dodgers’ eventual one-run victory. Like with Game Three, I consider this game a toss-up. With the price of the Run-Line under my -150 price threshold even after the pitching change to Rodriguez, what was likely a pass on the side play with Pomeranz now becomes a strong play on the Red Sox with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Saturday Night Run-Line Special Feature with the Boston Red Sox (907) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Boston (117-56) seized a 2-0 lead in the World Series on Wednesday with their 4-2 victory over the Dodgers. The series moves to Los Angeles for potentially three-weekend games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston has now won six straight games in these playoffs — and they have also won 5 straight games on the road. The Red Sox have also won 22 of their last 30 road games in Interleague play — and they have won nine of their last ten road games against National League teams with a winning record. Boston has also won 14 of their last 16 games in the World Series. They give the ball to Porcello who was 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three regular season starts. The right-hander saw his ERA improve to a 3.86 mark in eighteen starts. The Red Sox have won 4 of the last 5 games on the road with Porcello on the hill. Boston has also won 15 of their last 16 games with Porcello on the hill in Interleague play. Much has been made about the Dodgers now getting to get their trio of left-handed batters in Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Joc Pederson into the lineup now that the Red Sox are not sending a left-handed starting pitcher out on the hill. While those three sluggers combined to club 85 home runs this season, Los Angeles (99-77) is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers this season with a .249 batting average along with a .326 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .757 which are numbers not significantly better than their 4.8 Runs-Per-Game scoring margin for the season along with a .248 batting average, .327 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .749. The Dodgers have now lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Dodgers have also lost 5 straight games after an off-day. And in their last 5 games in the World Series going back to last year, this team has lost 4 of these contests. They will be placing their hopes on Buehler who was 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-two starts in the regular season. But the rookie right-hander is 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA along with a 2.08 WHIP in three starts this postseason. He has not managed a Quality Start in those three starts either as he did not complete 5 innings of work one good outing in the NLCS against the Brewers. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Boston has won a decisive 46 of their last 64 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: I have been patiently watching the money-line movement on this game. I am seeing the prices drop to -150 for the Red Sox plus the +1.5 Run-Line in enough betting locations to make me comfortable in endorsing this play. I definitely find Boston plus the +1.5 Run-Line the best side option tonight — the issue has been whether or not the price matches my -150 threshold guideline. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Year with the Boston Red Sox (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:09 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Boston Red Sox (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jun Ryu and David Price. THE SITUATION: Boston (116-56) won Game One of the World Series last night by an 8-4 score over the Dodgers.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have now won five straight games in these playoffs — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after winning at least five straight games. Boston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Over is 9-1-2 in their last 12 games home in Fenway Park — and they have also played 16 of their last 25 home games Over the Total when the Total is set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They turn to Price tonight who was outstanding last Thursday when he helped the Red Sox close out the ALCS in Houston by pitching six scoreless innings in the win. But while Price’s postseason struggles were perhaps a bit overblown, he still has underachieved in the playoffs when compared to his regular season performances given his 5.04 ERA in 85 2/3 innings of work which includes a 5.11 ERA this postseason even after last Friday’s strong effort. Price had a 3.58 ERA in thirty regular season starts but he did see his ERA rise to a 3.90 mark in his twenty-one starts at night. Boston has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Price pitching after a start where he did not allow more than one earned run — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Price following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. He faces this Dodgers’ team that has now seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles (99-76) has also now played 7 of their last road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 7 games in Interleague play. And in their last 16 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range, Los Angeles has played 11 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Ryu who was 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in fifteen regular season starts. But the left-hander was not nearly as effective on the road where he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.58 and 1.23 marks. Ryu was hit hard for seven hits and five earned runs in his last start which was in Milwaukee last Friday where he did only pitch 3 innings. He faces this Red Sox team tonight that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and this is Ryu’s first ever start in Fenway Park with its menacing Green Monster an inviting target for right-handed batters. The Over is 8-1-2 in Boston’s last 11 home games in their last 11 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is also 34-16-2 in their last games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers will be playing with desperation in this game after losing last night and not wanting to return to LA down 0-2 in this series. The Total was a run lower at 7.5 yesterday with the Clayton Kershaw-Chris Sale showdown — yet expect another higher-scoring game between these two left-handed starting pitchers in Fenway Park. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Boston Red Sox (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jun Ryu and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:09 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (902) versus the Los Angels Dodgers (90) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: Boston (115-56) reached the World Series by disposing of the Astros in just five games with their 4-1 victory in Houston last Thursday. Los Angeles (99-75) survived a seven-game series with the Brewers with their 5-1 victory in Milwaukee on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won 42 of their last 59 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. They earned home field advantage in this series by having the best record in MLB during the regular season — and they have won a decisive 46 of their last 55 games at home in Fenway Park. The Red Sox have also won 6 of their last 7 games at home in World Series games. And Boston has won 46 of their last 60 games against National League teams — including winning sixteen of their last twenty games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Sale who has not pitched in nine days after dealing with a stomach ailment that caused him to miss a start. The left-hander seems completely fine now and has pitched well in his last bullpen session. Sale was 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in twenty-seven starts durian the regular season. The Red Sox have won 6 of their 8 games at home with Sale on the hill — and they have won 4 straight games with Sale pitching with at least nine days of rest. He faces cold Dodgers lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .223 batting average along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .619 over that span. Los Angeles has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a victory as they have struggled to maintain momentum in this postseason. The Dodgers have also lost 25 of their last 41 road games as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They counter with Kershaw who is 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-six starts in the regular season. The left-hander has not been quite as effective when pitching away from Dodgers Stadium given his 2.90 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in thirteen road starts during the regular season as compared to his 2.58 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 at home. Kershaw saw his ERA rise to a 3.89 mark in the month of September where he allowed eight earned runs in two disappointing starts — and he has a similar 3.86 ERA in his four postseason appearances along with a 1.29 WHIP. He faces a Red Sox team that has won 13 of their last 16 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Boston is also scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests.

FINAL TAKE: Kershaw has never pitched in Fenway Park in his career — so he will be experiencing the Green Monster in left-field for the first time tonight. Boston has been the best team in MLB this season — they should take a 1-0 lead in this series tonight behind their ace in Sale. 25* MLB Game of the Year with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (902) versus the Los Angels Dodgers (90) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (962) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (102-70) forced a climactic seventh game of the National League Championship Series with their 7-2 victory over the Dodgers last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I like the chemistry of this team a bit more than what seems to bond the Dodgers. Not only has Milwaukee won 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also won a decisive 35 of their last 52 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Brewers have also won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They give the ball to Chacin who has been outstanding in the postseason. Including Milwaukee’s tie-breaker game on October 1st against the Cubs that gave the opportunity to host this seventh game as the top seed in the National League, Chacin has allowed only one earned run in 16 innings of work in his three postseason starts — he owns a 0.56 ERA with an 0.88 WHIP in those three starts. The Brewers have also won 6 of their last 8 home games with Chacin facing a team with a winning record. Manager Craig Counsell also has the luxury of a rested Josh Hader coming out of the bullpen tonight. The fireballing lefty has not allowed an earned run in his last seven appearances which has spanned 9 innings. He has only allowed five base bits over that span while striking out 15 batters. Los Angeles (98-75) has lost 13 of their last 17 games on the road in NLCS — and the Dodgers have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. I worry about the chemistry of this team with the apparent emotional team leaders being in a rental in Manny Machado and Yusiel Puig who has been erratic and inconsistent throughout his career. This team acted like they won the series won they took Game Five on Tuesday — but now this group risks being eliminated once again in the playoffs tonight. They put their faith in their rookie right-hander Buehler who has enjoyed a fantastic season with 7-5 record with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. But Buehler has been exposed in his last two starts in these playoffs as he has allowed nine earned runs over 12 innings of work. Buehler has not been as effective on the road either where his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.45 and 1.12 marks. The Dodgers have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Buehler facing a team with a winning record — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Buehler looking to stop a losing streak. Buehler faces a powerful Milwaukee offense that has won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have lost 20 of their last 27 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The home field and the home crowd should really help the Brewers play the role of spoiler and advance to the World Series. 25* MLB Saturday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (962) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.